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Astronauts Face Bleak Odds For Spaceflight

Abhishek writes "According to a Space.com report, Astronauts at NASA fear that they won't be able to fly until 2015 and that, for some, would be too late. The space shuttles that NASA have are almost at the end of their lifetimes and any shuttle can take years to be built. Though almost everybody is involved in some way or another in looking after a shuttle, only a lucky few actually gets the chance for a ride."

86 of 359 comments (clear)

  1. Begs the question... by tabkey12 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    What do they do every day? They are unlikely to be training for a specific mission at the moment with no shuttle...

    1. Re:Begs the question... by Dashing+Leech · · Score: 5, Informative
      "What do they do every day?"

      Most of them have other jobs at NASA when not in prep for a flight, such as running a lab, program manager for a particular system, performing various analyses or engineering work, etc., plus all the PR (trips to schools, educational programs). Basically their technical/leaderhship skills are used within the program.

      Well, if they want to go into space they can always take one of the new private rides which will probably get them there faster than 2015, though not for as long a stay.

    2. Re:Begs the question... by YrWrstNtmr · · Score: 3, Informative

      They are also engineers. Design, test, evaluate other aspects of spaceflight and operations in space.

    3. Re:Begs the question... by buddahfool · · Score: 4, Insightful

      My cousin got offered a place is the Space Program. He choose to design satelittes rather than the astronaut position. (Better money, and he later went to the private sector. Obviously he is not a geek... :)
      These are highly trained and educated individuals, I am sure they being employed gainfully...

    4. Re:Begs the question... by paranode · · Score: 4, Informative
      Suppose there is not another space shuttle built by the time some of these astronauts retire. It is given then, that these astronauts will never fly again and should be fired.

      That is begging the question. ;)

    5. Re:Begs the question... by harrkev · · Score: 4, Funny

      I hear that India and China are hiring. ;)

      --
      "-1 Troll" is the apparently the same as "-1 I disagree with you."
    6. Re:Begs the question... by harrkev · · Score: 2

      And how STUPID of Queen Isabella to fund that goofy Columbus guy when Spain had other, more pressing concerns. And don't even get me STARTED on Lewis & Clark.

      --
      "-1 Troll" is the apparently the same as "-1 I disagree with you."
    7. Re:Begs the question... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      "Burning fuel to carry all that weight to the edge of the atmosphere when you can fly it to the edge of the sky and launch it from there is pretty dumb..."

      Getting into space is more complex than flying an airplane up to 63 miles and jumping out. To go into orbit you need to achieve a speed of about Mach 25 (Spaceship 1 was nowhere even close to orbital velocity). Rocket technologies today make sense in accomplishing this by minimizing the weight of the spacecraft and maximizing the weight of the fuel. To do what you want would require that almost all of the fuel and useful spacecraft are carried in an aircraft to perhaps 100,000 feet. The fuel to do so would be enormous and you would still have to fire the rocket to get the other Mach 24 or so. The complex airoframe required to pull this off would probably require a significantly larger amount of fuel that is used today. The losses a rocket has from atmospheric drag at high velocities (up to about 100,000 feet to be equivalent) would be vastly smaller than the fuel required to launch a standard airplane assisted rocket launch.

      On a side note, a scramjet may be useful in the future due to its small engine size (extremely few parts). In this scenario a rocket would launch from the ground up to Mach 1, the scramjet would accelerate up to Mach 15, and then another rocket would accelarate up to Mach 25 for orbit or escape. Considering that no space launch has ever used a scramjet, I don't think its fair to call existing technologies 'dumb'. But then again, when has anyone considered 'rocket scientist' to be a synonymn for 'intelligent engineer'?

    8. Re:Begs the question... by Rei · · Score: 5, Informative

      Too good of a post to have posted as AC. :)

      What the parent needs to realize is how tough it is to scale up rockets to orbital, because you have to invest more and more of your energy into accelerating your fuel. It is quite possible, in theory, to get a moderate cargo to orbit from air launch (tow-launch, drop-launch, or carry-launch) if you use very high ISP engines and a very low mass craft. However, if you don't, your ability to just drop from an aircraft quickly becomes untenable; even a Cossack couldn't carry, say, a scaled-up SpaceShipOne.

      The real benefit from air launch, BTW, is not the altitude, but the fact that you don't have to plow through the atmosphere as much and don't have the problems associated with having your engines firing right near the ground (which is more likely to damage them). And ramjets would be great; unfortunately, we cancelled the program because of the premature Mars mission spending :P We need a good workhorse before we commit those kinds of resources to Mars.

      --
      If a tree falls in the forest and no engineer observes it, does it have a drag coefficient?
    9. Re:Begs the question... by nofx_3 · · Score: 2, Funny

      This should be modded (Score:-1, Depressing).

      -kaplanfx

      --
      Visualize Whirled Peas
    10. Re:Begs the question... by tsotha · · Score: 2, Informative
      And ramjets would be great; unfortunately, we cancelled the program because of the premature Mars mission spending

      Err... no. The program was cancelled because scramjets are useless for launching cargo into orbit. The problem is, as you pointed out earlier in your post, the majority of the energy you need to get to orbit is in the "horizontal" direction. Most orbital flight profiles expend only 10% of energy getting into space and 90% gathering enough speed for orbit.

      What that means, in practical terms, is you lose too much energy to drag friction to make accelerating in the atmosphere worthwhile. You're better off just bringing the oxidizer with you.

      And there are three more practical problems to deal with. The first is all the extra complexity you need to get up to speed. A scramjet doesn't work until the craft is already moving reasonably fast (OK, that's weaseling, but "reasonably" depends on the design). So you'll need some kind of rocket booster to get it going even if you're at altitude. No big deal, right? Well, it turns out separating from a booster in the atmosphere is a big deal (I believe that's what caused the first scramjet test failure). This would be a major source of complexity (and thus cost).

      The second problem is materials. All that drag is gonna create a lot of heat, and your craft had better be able to deal with it. On top of that can you imagine going through an air pressure differential at mach 20? So your ship has to be able to withstand plasma temperatures and it has to be incredably tough.

      Also, the intake configuration of your scramjet is heavily dependent on air density. So it only works in a very narrow range altitude range. Too high and you don't have enough oxygen for combustion, too low and you burn up from the air friction.

      As near as I can figure, scramjets have only one application: long range, high altitude air-to-air missiles.

      And the point here is what? To build a smaller rocket. Why not just build a bigger rocket? The price of the fuel is just a tiny fraction of your launch cost, so just use more of it. The cost driver for rockets is complexity, not materials.

      The best solution would be a reusable VTOL rocket (not rebuildable, like the shuttle) It would require a very large rocket, since the ratio of fuel to cargo is large. But that would allow you to use the same rocket over and over without rebuilding it, since landing is virtually stress-free (from an engineering perspective) compared to the shuttle. See here for details.

      The DC-X project was our best hope for cheap access to space. The project had demonstrated the technology involved with vertical landing, and would have evolved into a vehicle you could use over and over with only minor inspections between flights (as opposed to tearing it all apart, inspecting everything, and putting it back together).

      But NASA killed it because they couldn't fund both it and the shuttle, and the shuttle was already proven technology in the sense you could already fly it to orbit and land it, while DC-X would have required a few iterations to make it work properly.

      It's no coincidence Carmack chose the design he did, and he could probably get to orbit reasonably soon if he wasn't trying to fund the whole thing out-of-pocket.

    11. Re:Begs the question... by myowntrueself · · Score: 3, Funny

      "plus all the PR (trips to schools, educational programs)."

      I can just imagine it...

      little kid; "Are you really an astronaut, mister?"

      nasa astronaut; "yeah, son, thats right" (gleaming smile)

      little kid; "how many times have you been in space mister?"

      nasa astronaut; "well, I havn't actually been *in* space, but we train for it all of the time!"

      little kid; "ummm when *are* you going into space then, mister?"

      nasa astronaut; "I'm unlikely ever to go into space, son"

      little kid; "so how come you are an astronaut?"

      --
      In the free world the media isn't government run; the government is media run.
    12. Re:Begs the question... by zonix · · Score: 2, Funny

      nasa astronaut; "I'm unlikely ever to go into space, son"

      little kid; "so how come you are an astronaut?"

      NASA astronaut: "Why, you little ...!"

      Little kid: (choking)

      z
      --
      What would an EWOULDBLOCK block, if an EWOULDBLOCK could block would? -- me
  2. What really sucks... by BackInIraq · · Score: 5, Funny

    ...is that there isn't much need for Astronauts in our new service-based economy, so they're gonna have a hell of a time finding a new job.

    1. Re:What really sucks... by PhotoBoy · · Score: 4, Funny

      Buzz Aldrin: Sir, please make sure your tray table and seat is returned to its upright position.
      Passenger: No! Where the hell's that beer I ordered???
      Neil Armstrong: It won't be a minute, sir. I just need to make one giant leap to reach the cupboard where the beers are.

    2. Re:What really sucks... by ScentCone · · Score: 4, Insightful

      ...is that there isn't much need for Astronauts in our new service-based economy, so they're gonna have a hell of a time finding a new job

      Well, then there hasn't been a need ever, if that's how you look at it. But try this instead: these are some of the smartest, most physically and intellectually hardy, well-rounded people on the planet. Every one of them is better equipped to teach than most teachers, better able to fly than most pilots, better able to handle stress than most soldiers/firefighters/police, better able to understand and work with complex systems than most engineers... somehow I think that someone with those skills is hardly going to be working at, well, Disney's Space Mountain ride. There are plenty of systems engineers I know making six figures that would love to have one of these folks as a boss. Just the aerospace defense area alone could gobble up the entire astronaut-trained team in any one month's hiring cycle.

      Now... does holding analysis review meetings quite measure up to flying to the moon? No. Does grading orbital mechanics term papers have quite the same panache as shrieking into LEO with a billion dollar payload? No. Is my job boring? Most of the time. They'll deal with it just fine.

      --
      Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
    3. Re:What really sucks... by Tablizer · · Score: 2, Funny

      ...is that there isn't much need for Astronauts in our new service-based economy, so they're gonna have a hell of a time finding a new job.

      India and China are expanding their space program. Maybe they can become visa astronauts (B1H?). With all the damned visa workers India sends over here, at least give our astronauts some reciprical opportunities.

  3. Useful contact info by novakane007 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Hey NASA, I suggest you contact this guy named Burt Rutan. Apparently he's pretty good at putting together elegant solutions for a relatively low cost.

    --

    WURD!!
    1. Re:Useful contact info by wes33 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      tell Rutan to call NASA when he knows how to put something into orbit (there is a difference between 100 km up and mach 2 and 500 km up and around and mach 25)

  4. hmm by Tibor+the+Hun · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Don't mistake my sarcasm for flamebait, but does this then mean that ex-commies will have to ferry our capitalist asses to space?

    --
    If you don't know what AltaVista is (was), get off my lawn.
    1. Re:hmm by JeffTL · · Score: 5, Informative

      You don't need the future tense. Without the Shuttle, when we send someone to the ISS, we already have to let the Russians do the transportation.

    2. Re:hmm by FunWithHeadlines · · Score: 5, Insightful
      "Don't mistake my sarcasm for flamebait, but does this then mean that ex-commies will have to ferry our capitalist asses to space?"

      Why not? Current commies (China) make almost all our clothes, our toys, our machines....

    3. Re:hmm by MosesJones · · Score: 2, Interesting

      And the genius of the Russian programme is that they took an engineers approach to the whole thing of "if it ain't broke don't fix it". So they built simple, and built to last. The mechanics are miles simpler, and are a major reason for the Russians keeping going despite budget reductions.

      Maybe NASA should be made to concentrate on basic engineering rather than fancy shuttles.

      --
      An Eye for an Eye will make the whole world blind - Gandhi
    4. Re:hmm by igny · · Score: 2, Informative

      Actually, the Russians are grieving that they are training more foreigners in Star City than Russian cosmonauts.

      --
      In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is. - Yogi Berra
    5. Re:hmm by Scott7477 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Amen to this comment; the US military/space programs could do well to emulate the Russian design philosophy. Make things simple, rugged, and easily replaceable. I'm surprised Russia doesn't do more PR about how they are basically holding the ISS together.

      --
      "Lack of technical competence coupled with the arrogance of power, as usual, leads to no good end."
  5. What do you call an astronaut who won't fly? by FunWithHeadlines · · Score: 4, Interesting
    Right, an astronot.

    OK, more seriously, I think the era of NASA is in decline and the era of private spacecraft is in ascent. Some of those astronauts may yet fly, but they might have to retire from NASA to do it.

    1. Re:What do you call an astronaut who won't fly? by Jeff+DeMaagd · · Score: 2, Informative

      e and the era of private spacecraft is in ascent.

      Uh, first, we have to have private spacecraft. Burt Rutan's project is about at the level of the second Mercury flight, which was suborbital.

    2. Re:What do you call an astronaut who won't fly? by badasscat · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Uh, first, we have to have private spacecraft. Burt Rutan's project is about at the level of the second Mercury flight, which was suborbital.

      Not to mention 40 years in the past.

      The private sector still has a lot of work to do before it can really play with the big boys (in this case, government space agencies). It will catch up, but it's kinda like saying you're ready to start carrying passengers between New York and Tokyo because you can fold a piece of paper and make it fly. You may have re-discovered for yourself the principles of flight, but it takes a bit more expertise and experience than that to do anything meaningful with it. You're not quite ready to challenge Boeing or Airbus if all you've got are paper airplanes.

      A lot of people fail to appreciate the difference between what Rutan has done and what world government space agencies (not just NASA) do every day. It's not just about rocketing a guy to the edge of space and back again. It's about getting meaningful work done, which means the ability to carry large payloads to precise areas in orbit, then make it back again to a precise area on the ground. When you start talking about orbiting the Earth 100 miles up with a payload of 40,000 pounds, then you've got all sorts of issues to deal with. The private sector hasn't even started tackling those issues yet.

      Luckily, NASA and other space agencies have done most of the work for them already. But that doesn't mean they won't have to re-learn and experience everything for themselves - it just hopefully won't take quite as long to do it.

      (btw, this is not to take away from what Rutan has done - it was a great accomplishment. But it needs a sense of perspective - there is still a ton of work to do, and what NASA does is different by an order of magnitude.)

  6. Need to hurry up and get back out there by virex · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It's amazing how far we've come in the past 36 years. We were once going to the moon, now we can't even go to space! We need to get up there, no matter how we get there. Be it spaceshipone, or the shuttles, or something new. What NASA really needs to do is stop canceling all the good ideas for vehicles. They'll let the planning and testing go on for 8+ years and then nothing comes out of it.

    1. Re:Need to hurry up and get back out there by smashin234 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Although you are correct that it appears we are going in reverse, by not actually adopting new things, and not going to the moon or doing big missions (such as Mars.) NASA has been doing things.

      Since the 70's, NASA's budget has not been the top issue (it has gone down steadily since we stopped going to the moon.) And we also no longer wanted to beat the Soviets in space (since we already did that.)

      We still have the technology to go to the moon, and I would even hazard to guess the technology is there to go to Mars as well, but the money is not there.

      And the testing money NASA is spending, well think about that as trying to get itself to Mars on a limited budget. If something will not work to accomplish NASA's probable main mission, why stick with it?

      NASA has accomplished several smaller probe missions. But the fact is, that with such a smaller budget and the fact that we are still the main financier's for the international space station; NASA has issues with its budget right now. So, write to your congressman if you want to go out to Mars or goto the moon again, because right now its those people who decide whether we go or not. (Think oversight committee as well.)

  7. private sector by 53cur!ty · · Score: 3, Insightful

    They need to move to the private sector where there are still some with the balls to boldly go...

    Nasa is defunct and crippled, if it were a pet we'd put it out of its misery!

  8. While waiting for specific mission assignments... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    ... astronauts serve other duties at NASA.

    They help with planning and ground support for other missions, help with long-term planning, and serve other tasks often depending on their pre-astronaut background.

    Currently, there are some working on the Crew Exploration Vehicle and Moon/Mars plans.

  9. Are we supposed to feel sorry for them? by no+parity · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It's our money they spend, and it's not meant for their personal pleasure.

  10. Work Wanted by chowdmouse · · Score: 2, Interesting

    They should apply to the privatized space flight companies. I'm betting they'll have a better chance to to get into space with them than NASA.

  11. So? by glrotate · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The space program doesn't exist for their personal egos. There are a heck of a lot of things I'd like to do but will never get the chance, and it doesn't merit a /. story.

    1. Re:So? by Saeed+al-Sahaf · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The point is that it's going to be hard to maintain a pool of qualified astronauts if they have no incentive to train for it because of no chance to actually go into space. You don't just pick these guys out a few months before launch.

      --
      "Who are in control, they are not in control of anything - they don't even control themselves!" - Glen Beck
  12. What were they thinking? by christopherfinke · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Didn't NASA realized that their shuttles were becoming obsolete? Shouldn't they already be building to next shuttle in order to avoid 15-year downtimes?

    1. Re:What were they thinking? by gl4ss · · Score: 2, Insightful

      yes, but without budget.. no dice.

      stupid management yes, mostly just about being shortsighted because of not having money. they've had dozens of plans for a replacement, but without budget to order one they remain as concepts.

      --
      world was created 5 seconds before this post as it is.
    2. Re:What were they thinking? by afidel · · Score: 2, Interesting

      They were thinking that the post Regan era slashing to their budget means that it's awfully hard to complete all of their mandates: scientific satelites, unmanned missions, manned mission using current (expensive to maintain) equipment, and designing and testing next generation equipment. Today the US uses the smallest percentage of their wealth for exploration of any large world power in history, heck even at the height of our spending on the Apollo program we barely matched what the Spanish did with Columbus. I think that NASA needs to do some overhauling to their PR machine if they aren't able to convince the public that they are worth more money then is currently being spent on them.

      --
      There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
    3. Re:What were they thinking? by GileadGreene · · Score: 2, Insightful
      BS. It's never been a question of money per se. NASA has, as you rightly pointed out, had all sorts of ideas for shuttle replacements. But usually one of two things happens:
      1. the idea they are hot for involves all sorts of untried technology that requires loads of R&D. The program goes a long for a while, hits a snag, and then gets cancelled.
      2. the political winds change, and suddenly some new concept is the one and only true future of manned spaceflight

      The X-33/Venturestar program is a poster-child for the first outcome. NASA sunk 8 years and $200M+ into that program, and never even managed to get a flying half-scale demonstrator. Why? Because at the outset of the program they selected a vaporware Lockheed Martin concept that involved all sorts of sporty technology, rather than go with a more conervative design that might have actually stood a chance of working (like, for example, the Delta-Clipper program, which had already managed to produce a flying half-scale demonstrator in 2 years, on a 1/4 of the X-33's budget).

      The Orbital Space Plane is a good example of the second outcome. Everyone was excited about it for a while, and then all of a sudden capsules are the rage and OSP gets replaced with the CEV. Not that I'm saying capsules are bad (I actually prefer them), just that there's a lot of flip-flopping as far as preferred approaches to spaceflight.

      It'll be interesting to see which way the CEV ends up going. Based on what I've seen of the requirements documents so far, I'm going to guess the second outcome, since NASA is already over-constraining the solution space (e.g. "thou shalt land using a parachute"). Once everyone gets a new favorite way to do space then the over-specified CEV program will be dropped, and a new program with different requirements will be instituted.

  13. Launching: NASA Virgins by nacturation · · Score: 3, Insightful

    With all their paid training they've received, they're perfect for landing jobs in the private sector. In the last year, we've seen a huge initiative for private ventures to go into space. Who better to be the vehicles' operators than existing astronauts? Throw in some stock options, and I think they'd do quite well for themselves. Richard Branson wouldn't hesitate to hire them, not just for their experience but also for the PR value it would have.

    --
    Want to improve your Karma? Instead of "Post Anonymously", try the "Post Humously" option.
  14. sell space station on eBay by peter303 · · Score: 4, Funny

    If you could get ten cents on the dollar for the $90 billion International Space Station you could keep manned space flight going for some time.

    Why does this make me want to cry instead of laugh?

  15. Why is space flight so difficult politically? by October_30th · · Score: 5, Interesting
    All face an uncertain future and development of the next-generation space vehicle could take until 2015.

    Why is that?

    The first shuttle was built in the 70s using decades old know-how. Why has it taken so long to produce its successor?

    Is it the technological challenge, or is it just politics that keeps the manned space exploration down?

    --
    The owls are not what they seem
  16. steps of plan. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    1. scrap current plans
    2. buy Soyuz rockets from the Russians
    3. invest the billions you save out on other projects like lunar colonies, exploration drones and advanced propulsion systems.

  17. why don't they build a couple more copies? by WormholeFiend · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The current design is proven, it's not like they'd have to go through the whole design process/testing again.

    Just order the same parts, new, and put them all together.

    1. Re:why don't they build a couple more copies? by ebrandsberg · · Score: 4, Insightful

      a) I actually doubt they could build another, like the Saturn V rockets
      b) Much of the cost of building something like this is figuring how to build the parts to spec, and chances are, they don't have the tooling in place anymore
      c) The only thing the current shuttles have problem is that it is too complex and too costly to send on missions.

      While politically impossible, it would be far cheaper to buy launches from the Russians to put these guys into space.

    2. Re:why don't they build a couple more copies? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The current design is inefficient, expensive
      (because it's inefficient,;), unsophisticated, unsecure and uneconomic. Even spare parts are rare
      (remember the NASA's search for used i8086 and i8088...).

    3. Re:why don't they build a couple more copies? by Bender0x7D1 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Do you really think that we lack the capability to make something that was made in the 1960s? Yes, there might be a large start up cost since many of the tools are no longer in use, but we also have technologies and automation that was unimagined in the 60s.

      I have heard this argument time and again - we can't make the parts anymore, we don't know how. I am waving the BS flag on that. I challenge you, or anyone else, to point to a part used on the Saturn V rockets that can no longer be made. I am not saying that it can be made inexpensively or mass produced in a factory, but point to something that absolutley cannot be made.

      Also, do you need something made to spec? What size? I'll measure it with my laser. Need to examine it for flaws? I can use my PC and a camera to look it over for you. Need an X-Ray of it? I can do the same thing. Need to check calculations? Forget your slide rule, I've got a TI-92.

      In short, I doubt there is anything technologically impossible about creating more Saturn V rockets. I doubt there is even a financial reason it can't be done - NASA declaring they are spending billions to buy a new "fleet" of Saturn V rockets will motivate companies to produce what is needed for a reasonable cost (in most cases). What we really need is the political will to say this is important and we need to fund it.

      No bucks, no Buck Rogers.

      --
      Reading code is like reading the dictionary - you have to read half of it before you can go back and understand it.
    4. Re:why don't they build a couple more copies? by YrWrstNtmr · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Cost is probably most of it. But we'd have to fully recreate the original tooling to build one. Making a part of dimension xyz is only part of the problem. It also has to be of the same original material. Thermal expansion/contraction would play a big part in it. Part A & B need to work with part C. If C is built of a newer, better(?) alloy, that's not necessarily a good thing, if it expands at adifferent rate than the original...

      Could we duplicate a 1972 Pinto? Not a look alike, with a better motor and suspension, but an actual duplicate 1972 Pinto. Sure. But at a cost of 5x the original. Finding that 5x is the problem.

    5. Re:why don't they build a couple more copies? by dbIII · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Do you really think that we lack the capability to make something that was made in the 1960s?
      We no longer have the plans, the infrustructure or the people with skills - the Saturn V was the culmination of years of work by people with years of experience. We could put one together in a few years after building all of that up - but don't expect the first one to be any good.

      Also, do you need something made to spec? What size? I'll measure it with my laser.
      We've had good enough length measuring devices for over a century, you'll find that where a laser is available micrometers are still used, and as for examining it for flaws "a PC and camera" won't do the job any better than back then. Industrial endescopes get you into hard to reach places, and ultrasonics has progressed a bit but still gives you no more info than 1960's x-rays.
      Need to check calculations? Forget your slide rule, I've got a TI-92.
      They had computers back then too - but the computer is a tool of the designer and cannont design anything itself. We can pull apart the example Saturn V and make replicas of the parts but unless we know exactly why they are designed that way it isn't worth doing - something will go wrong. When you build really big rockets the stresses on the very thin walls you need to stop the whole thing melting are immense - so it doesn't take much of a flaw to make the thing split. That's why the Russians use lots of little rockets clustered together instead of one big one, and why the shuttle has boosters instead of being on top of one really big rocket.
  18. postponed from fatal events that occurred? by dmf415 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The postponement could be due to past fatalities that occurred, including the 2003 incident. Maybe NASA has to develop a new machine for flight.

    1 February 2003; Space Shuttle Columbia (STS-107), over northeast Texas: Columbia was in the re-entry phase of flight after a 16-day mission and its intended destination was the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Communications with the shuttle were lost at about 9 a.m. local time. At the time of the most catastrophic phase of the breakup, the spacecraft was at an altitude of about 203,000 feet (approx. 39 mi. or 63 km) and was traveling at about mach 18 (roughly 12,500 mph or 20,000 kph). While most of the debris landed in northeast Texas and western Louisiana, especially the area around the town of Nacagdoches (Knack-a-doe-chess), the breakup very likely began further west, possibly before the spacecraft passed over California. All seven astronauts on board the spacecraft were killed. The crew members were:
    Michael Anderson (STS-89), David Brown,
    Kalpana Chawla (STS-87), Laurel Clark,
    Rick Husband (STS-96), William McCool, and Ilan Ramon.

    http://www.airsafe.com/events/space/astrofat.htm

  19. And to think when I was a kid... by BHAX · · Score: 5, Funny

    When my fourth grade teacher asked me what I want to be when I grow up, I told her, "I want to be an ASTRONAUT Mrs. King". She told me I could do it, if I apply myself. Never before have I been as grateful for chronic drug abuse and not living up to my potential as I am today. It's not like the title says, "Network Tech's Face Bleak Odds for Hooking up Patch Cables"

  20. Just the American ones? by PxM · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Maybe they could jump ship and try for one of the proposed manned space programs in other countries. The pilots and engineers shouldn't have a problem finding jobs in the private sector as it begins to take off (no pun intended) since there will be a need for people who know how to get a hunk of metal moving at 7km/s on the ground in once piece. The scientists and other mission personal would have trouble finding spots in the private sector unless it becomes profitable. This would require something like feasible zero-gee engineering that NASA has always been looking at. Maybe one of the big biotech or chemical companies would pay for a science team to spend some time in orbit to do some material engineering research. However, it would be harder to get private science crews into space who can't show short term profits. This would probably require a government for funding.

    --
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    Wired article as proof

  21. Is there some reason not to have human feelings? by ianscot · · Score: 4, Insightful
    The answer is: Yes, we're supposed to feel some sympathy for people who spend their lives training for an extraordinary and meaningful experience, but who may not see their dream fulfilled. No, we're not supposed to be completely callous to their aspirations.

    I'm a much bigger fanboy for robotic space exploration, and not much of an advocate of the shuttle program. (Nixon basically pimped the shuttle by exaggerating how cost effective it could be, in a spectacular example of how much government largesse the 'Publicans are capable of when the military industrial complex stands to benefit. IMHO, of course.) That doesn't keep me from sympathizing with astronauts who are, by all accounts, pretty impressive people.

    Putting yourself in other people's shoes isn't a weakness.

    --
    "Fundamentalism" isn't about divine morality. It's about human authority.
  22. If Rutan had NASA's budget by RealAlaskan · · Score: 4, Insightful
    tell Rutan to call NASA when he knows how to put something into orbit (there is a difference between 100 km up and mach 2 and 500 km up and around and mach 25)

    If Rutan had NASA's budget, the question would not be ``Will they get into orbit?'', but ``Which planet will they orbit next?''.

    1. Re:If Rutan had NASA's budget by Rei · · Score: 5, Insightful

      A lot of people don't seem to realize that NASA is a research organization, not a space cargo organization. Most of their budget generally goes to new research. Even a sizable chunk of the shuttle's budget (from which that 13k$-15k$ per kilogram number comes from, compared to 10k$ for Ariane-5 and 7k$ for Proton and Long March (although they get the benefit of cheap labor)) goes to research on how to lower maintenance costs and improve performance of reusable craft. The shuttle itself was really a research craft; you might have noticed that most of NASA's manned space program craft have been designed to try and push the envelope. If you want a cargo workhorse, use a Delta or Atlas, or go overseas.

      As an example of how much research NASA does, just take a look at how many papers there are on NASA's site that just contain the word "novel".

      Rutan doesn't do research. He doesn't have the budget for it. His budget was about right for what he did: a completely unscalable joyride craft.

      --
      If a tree falls in the forest and no engineer observes it, does it have a drag coefficient?
    2. Re:If Rutan had NASA's budget by afidel · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Yes, because there were SO many existing ways to keep a glider from going over MACH before Rutan built his craft. NOT. Rutan researched and designed a novel way to accomplish his goal and did so with a budget of only $20 million to research, design, test, and launch his craft three times. I'd say that's pretty damn good use of money and he even managed to do some R&D along the way =)

      --
      There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
    3. Re:If Rutan had NASA's budget by Quantum+Fizz · · Score: 2, Insightful
      If Rutan had NASA's budget, the question would not be ``Will they get into orbit?'', but ``Which planet will they orbit next?''.

      Except that a large part of NASA's budget isn't directly related to space flight, but space exploration

      • Reconfigure NASA's budget and take out all the funding for launch/design/maintenance/support of Hubble Space Telescope, James Webb Space Telescope (lots already spent on it's design and test), Chandra Observatory, all the solar/comet science missions, etc.
      • Then take out the funding used to pay for astronomical research, astrobiological research (yes, this happens on ISS despite the bad rep ISS ets on /.), planetary science and geology, etc.
      • Then take out the funding for developing all the extraplanetary orbiters and landers, including the Pioneers, Voyagers, Magellan, Cassini, Pathfinder, Spirit/Opportunity, all the other Martian landers/orbiters, Lunar landers/orbiters, etc.
      • Also take out all the funding for PR efforts, including all the classroom tools and pictures, etc.
      • Also take out the funding for ISS, as that isn't really related to space flight. This means subtract the money for ISS design, and all the shuttle launches.
      What is left? Well, that leaves the bureaucracy costs as well as some things that do relate to propulsion and getting out of earth orbit. How much of NASA's budget is left?

      Also you should compare that most of what NASA did hasn't been done before, and expensive aerospace research needed to be done to see what methods/fuels/wing designs/etc are feasible. As per the grandparent, Rutan got to Mach 2 and 100 km altitude, which has been done many times for the past 40 years. Lots of prior art to study and learn from there.

      Basically - Rutan had the benefit of multi-million dollar studies carried out by NASA, Air Force, German and Russian rocket/space programs from the past 40 years to learn from. Plus Rutan's focus on suborbital (and soon orbital) flight is only a small subset of what NASA does. So claiming he only used $10 million compared to NASA's overall budget is a little disingenuous.

    4. Re:If Rutan had NASA's budget by NatteringNabob · · Score: 3, Insightful

      That the Rutan flight represents some sort of triumph of capitalism over big, bad, governemnt is laughable. In the first place, Rutan's project relies on 'space age' materials pretty much all of which were invented on the government's nickel. IF Rutan had to fund all of the basic research that culminated in SS-1, he would have been bankrupt in a week. Second of all, SS-1 is capable of putting a few hundred pounds barely into space. The 30 year old shuttle design can put 20 to 30 TONS into low earth orbit. Delta and Titan rockets, developed by NASA, can put several ton objects in geosynchrous orbit. And, of course, NASA has sent men to the moon, and unmaned spacecraft to Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn. Standing on NASA's shoulders, private industry has managed to put 200 pounds 60 miles up for a couple of seconds. Color me unimpressed.

    5. Re:If Rutan had NASA's budget by Rei · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Keep it from going over mach? I hate to disappoint you, but SS1 *did* go over Mach 1. And, furthermore, there *are* lots of programs for simulating compressible and incompressible flows as you get accelerating through/decelerating from supersonic speeds. I can get you about half a dozen open source computational flow dynamics programs that can simulate a craft ahead of time if you'd like. And guess what? A good portion of them were originally developed by NASA ;)

      > Rutan researched

      He did not research. He *developed*. You need to learn what research is. Rutan took already existing technology (much of which had its fundamentals laid out by NASA research), designed a craft, and built it. For comparison, I don't call it "research" when I write a program that utilizes Blowfish encryption; developing Blowfish encryption was the "research". :P

      --
      If a tree falls in the forest and no engineer observes it, does it have a drag coefficient?
    6. Re:If Rutan had NASA's budget by Rakishi · · Score: 3, Insightful

      There is always poverty, war and corruption. If you think throwing $10 billion or $100 billion at education will do anything to solve the problems you truly do not understand the causes. Social problems are insanely hard to fix using money alone or non-draconian laws. If you care so much about education then why are you opposed to Nasa? Those $10 billion are probably well worth the interest they generate in science among children. Smaller classrooms are worth jack shit if children don't want to learn and their parents are too lazy to make them study. The summit seems to me like it's another attempt at "Make everyone equal, make everyone mediocre."

    7. Re:If Rutan had NASA's budget by LiquidRaptor · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Off you're quoted website
      In the spaceship Vostok 1, Senior Lieutenant Yuri Alexeyevich Gagarin orbited earth one time at an altitude of 187 3/4 miles (302 kilometers) for 108 minutes at 18,000 miles an hour

      Spaceship one went to 100 kilometers, for 2 minutes? and went maybe a few hundred miles/hour. In other words not even close. NASA didn't do it, because theres no point.
      Is it a vital first step in a private space program, yes.
      Is it important to the worlds space program, no.

  23. 2 jobs by YrWrstNtmr · · Score: 4, Informative
    "Although flying in space is the highlight of an astronaut's career, little time is actually spent in orbit. In fact, during a 10- year assignment with NASA, an astronaut will probably fly in space only three times. There is much more to being an astronaut than time spent in orbit. An astronaut's ground duties can be broken down into two major categories: training for space flight and serving as a technical expert in some portion of the space shuttle or space station programs. "

    Excerpt from RedNova

  24. almost at the end of their lifetimes... = false by kulakovich · · Score: 2, Insightful

    "The space shuttles that NASA have are almost at the end of their lifetimes "

    This isn't quite right. The remaining shuttle fleet isn't even to the halfway point of its life expectancy. In other words, the flight-hours remaining on the airframe is greater than 50%.

    Yes, we could use a more advanced vehicle, with less risk and more efficiency. But let's not go spreading rumors - the shuttle fleet is actually not old, the design is.

    kulakovich

  25. Private Companies by randall_burns · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Odds are the Bigelow space prize will be won well before 2015. That means a private space shuttle will be available for purchase. The best thing nasa can do is focus on scientific missions and provide a market for the contestant in that prize-instead of trying to compete against them.

  26. Re:Lucky? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I wonder if the two dead crews would consider themselves lucky?

    I know that comment was supposed to be a crass and cynical joke. However, given we all are going to die anyway; who is luckier someone who just dies, or someone who dies while working towards a goal they believe is worthwhile?

  27. What happened? by beforewisdom · · Score: 2, Funny

    Did NASA outsource to India?

    ( there go my karma points )

  28. Not only a money issue... by DesScorp · · Score: 2

    "We still have the technology to go to the moon, and I would even hazard to guess the technology is there to go to Mars as well, but the money is not there."

    I would argue to you that we have no WILL to go back to the Moon...or Mars...or anywhere else that requires putting men any farther than low orbit.

    We know that no one else is likely going to another planet soon, so we go "What's the rush? Why spend the money now? It's not like anyone else is going". Doing it for science, and frankly, for history and adventure's sake alone doesn't seem to motivate us.

    But let China start a manned Lunar or Martian mission; oh boy, watch how fast we send people back up then.

    --
    Life is hard, and the world is cruel
  29. Definition of an astronaut? by MDMurphy · · Score: 2, Informative

    I thought this was an odd article, my thinking that an "astronaut" who's never been to space would be an "astronaut wannabe", "astronaut in training" or the more pejorative: "space cadet". According to Websters just being "trained" makes you an astronaut.

    " a person who travels beyond the earth's atmosphere; also : a trainee for spaceflight"

    Gotta suck when you tell people you're an astronaut and people's first question is "When did you go up?". They probably have the Websters definition loophole printed on the back of their business cards.

  30. math genius by boarder · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Yes, I'm sure you'd be saying "Thank God for space debris" if you were one of the family members of the crew who died. It certainly was convenient for them to die to save you some money.

    Oh, wait, did it save you money? Let's look at this... $600,000,000 to launch (I'll take your number because I'm too lazy to look it up). There are about 100,000,000 taxpayers in this country, so assuming two launches per year, you have saved yourself $12/year. Go buy that new car you've been lusting over with that. 12 fucking dollars, man, and you are bitching! Maybe buying two subs from Subway is more important than a bunch of scientific research, but we won't debate that. The annual budget of NASA is 16 billion, which comes out to $160/year/taxpayer for EVERYTHING they do (satellites, mars missions, aerodynamics research, plasma physics, etc). The WEEKLY budget of the Iraq war is 5 billion, and that is just the Iraq war not all of the defense dept.

    Even if you'd rather save the $12/year to not launch, did you even think what it costs to research the failure and fix the issues? The return to flight costs were around 1.2 billion (that included all the research into the accident and all the new testing and procedure development). They haven't launched in two years and only had three launches planned in that time, so you saved all of $3/year. Woooooo!

    And astronauts have real jobs when they aren't flying. Some are doctors, some are plasma physicists, some are just normal engineers doing research. They aren't always training for a new mission; they are using their single paycheck to do a normal engineering job until it is time to train and fly.

    --
    IANAL, but I play one on /.
    1. Re:math genius by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful
      The annual budget of NASA is 16 billion, which comes out to $160/year/taxpayer for EVERYTHING they do.

      Hooray for socialism!

    2. Re:math genius by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      That argument can be made on most government programs. "Dammnit, why not spend $10 per tax on [insert pet cause here]. It's really nothing!"

      Course, what if I give you your $10 bucks for space jaunting, are you going to give me my $10 to research a cure for MS or Lupus, or are you going to start raging about liberals and their damn tax and spend ways?

    3. Re:math genius by Ucklak · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I don't know why people forget that there are businesses in his country that also pay taxes.

      Of that 100,000,000 said taxpayers, only 5% pay 81% of the burden. My numbers are probably a little off but you get the idea.

      It's like people who have the idea that a tax refund is "free money" where that money could be better invested and paid at the end of the year.

      Would you rather give the government an extra $100 a month just to get $1200 back at the end of the year or would you invest that $1200 and make $100 on it?

      --
      if you steal from one source, that is plagiarism, if you steal from many, well, that's just research.
    4. Re:math genius by bnenning · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I don't know why people forget that there are businesses in his country that also pay taxes.

      Of course, "businesses" don't pay taxes, only people do. Corporate taxes must necessarily be paid by some combination of increased prices to consumers, decreased wages to employees, or lower returns to shareholders.

      --
      How to solve most of our problems: 1.Lots of nuclear plants. 2.Cure aging.
    5. Re:math genius by LiquidRaptor · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Just like to point out that the richer are not taxed more. When I made 150k a year, I paid about 5000 in taxes and 2000 to my taxman. Now that I make 20k a year I paid 6k in taxes and 500 to a taxman(admitidally a diffrent taxman)

      PS I know admitidally is spelled wrong, I just really don't care at the moment

  31. man... by enrico_suave · · Score: 3, Funny

    I bet the makers of Tang, are pissed...

    e.

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    Build Your Own PVR/HTPC news, reviews, &
  32. Too many astronauts by Yeechang+Lee · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Deke Slayton, one of the Mercury Seven and the longtime head of the astronaut corps (i.e., the guy with the final say on flight crew assignments), pushed hard to use an airliner-style crew system for the shuttle. That is, have a small group of pilots and mission specialists that would fly repeatedly together, with one-off payload specialists handling mission-specific duties. He'd seen how frustrating life was for the later '60s astronaut classes that only saw a few members fly, and sometimes not for decades. And this was back when NASA genuinely believed each shuttle would spend as little as two weeks before launching again.

    Instead, we got the worst of both words: A launch schedule in which four shuttles did at most a dozen launches a year together, little likelihood of even that annual figure in the three remaining shuttles' lifetimes, and an astronaut corps that numbers in the hundreds with new inductees coming in every two years. That's just crazy.

  33. To paraphrase Jurassic Park by the_skywise · · Score: 3, Insightful

    "This *is* a space program isn't it? I mean, when you have a manned space program there will be times when people go into SPACE, right?"

    "I hate that man..."

  34. The "Excess Eleven" by Animats · · Score: 4, Interesting
    NASA's done this before. NASA's astronaut class of 1967, hired for the "Apollo Applications" program that didn't happen, called itself the Excess Eleven. Most of those guys quit or were laid off in the early 1970s.

    One wrote a book, "The Making of an Ex-Astronaut".

    1. Re:The "Excess Eleven" by ShieldWolf · · Score: 3, Informative

      You said:

      "Most of those guys quit or were laid off in the early 1970s."

      From the article:

      "Seven stayed on through the 1970's and finally got to fly aboard the space shuttle."

      In reality most stayed on and actually got to fly.

      --
      just = (My)Opinion.toCents();
  35. Nuclear Rockets? by serutan · · Score: 5, Interesting

    When somebody mentions the shuttle program ending, I never miss a chance to plug nuclear rockets. I know it's the "N" word, but read this fascinating article detailing a design for a fully reusable, non-polluting rocket ship based on the Saturn-V form factor. Powered by Gas Core Nuclear Reactor engines emitting only non-radioactive hydrogen, the ship would be capable of carrying 1000 Tons of cargo into orbit and returning an equal amount of cargo to a powered landing. For comparison the shuttle's cargo capacity is less than 30 tons.

  36. Voting with Tax Dollars by MonkeyCookie · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Now that would be an interesting form of democracy. You vote for politicians to come up with different programs, and then each person gets to vote for where their tax dollars go: a bit like allocating where your 401K money gets invested. The gun nuts can have their tax dollars go to the military, the geeks can have their tax dollars go towards NASA, and the hippies can have their tax dollars go towards environmental protection.

    I imagined that there would be a lot of boring, yet essential for a smoothly running country, items that would be almost ignored under such a system.

  37. Hopes and Dreams by HEXAN · · Score: 2, Funny

    I heard Burt Rutan built a spaceship capable of outperfoming the shuttle using change stolen from the vending machines at JPL. Oh wait, that's really the truth.

  38. Right place, right time by cratermoon · · Score: 3, Informative

    In the last 1960s, Al Bean had been assigned to the Apollo Applications project. He didn't expect to get into space for years, if ever. As it happened, his friend Pete Conrad needed someone to be LMP for Apollo 12, and knew Al was good and was working on long-term stuff that could wait. Al became the LMP for the flight, his first in space, and the 4th man to walk on the moon.

    Everyone in the Astronaut training program is looking for their chance to jump the line and get wings, and you never know how might turn out to be the one to flip the critical switch for SCE to AUX and save the mission.

    Bean later flew in space again as a Commander on the Apollo Applications mission that became Skylab.

  39. Tons of chances to be an astronaut by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 2, Funny

    Provided you live in Japan, China, or the EU.

    It's only here in the third-world nation of the USA that it's a problem.

    --
    -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
  40. Good! Serves them right! by RexRhino · · Score: 2, Insightful

    NASA has completly blown the chances for any average person to go into space (Space Ship One can take people in space for 20 million... imagine what could have happened if NASA actually invested billions into low cost civilian access to space, instead of providing corporate welfare to large aerospace companies).

    So a few elite government employees will not be able to make it into space? Well, welcome to the world of the rest of us!

    You can mark this a Troll, but this is not. Why should we feel bad about the ambitions of government employees that are supposed to be serving us? Especially when they have taken so much of our money, and failed us so badly?