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MP3 Market Approaching Critical Mass
An anonymous reader writes "Led by the Apple iPod, Jupiter Research says that sales of DAPs are reaching a point where it will ignite an industry of support products and services. According to Jupiter analyst David Card
'Historically, any new device or medium that reaches a U.S. household penetration of 15 percent to 20 percent creates a critical mass of customers for other products and services.' The iPod already has a slew of peripherals out there and this is particularly good news for the paid download services like iTunes, especially with Apple announcing Wednesday they sold another 5.3 million iPods last quarter."
...another News.com article on this topic:
Music moguls trumped by Steve Jobs?
When Apple Computer CEO Steve Jobs walked into the suites of top record label executives in 2002, iTunes software in hand, he was welcomed as a trailblazer to a digital music future.
Now, nearly two years after Apple's iTunes launch, record executives have become worried that they have inadvertently ceded too much power over their industry to this charismatic computer executive.
Frustrated at what they see as Jobs' intransigence on song pricing and other issues, some record executives are now turning their hopes toward other partners, particularly mobile phone carriers eager to get into the business of selling music. They see this new focus as a way to broaden the digital music business, and lessen Apple's dominance over their market in the process.
[...]
For example, Apple wants to sell all its songs for 99 cents each, a single price point that's easy for consumers to understand. But the record labels have pressed for the ability to vary prices to maximize their own sales. They want to sell older titles at a discount--like the $9.99 CDs available in most record stores--and charge more for popular songs to take advantage of market demand.
Full story
I understand that the iPod craze has been great for Apple, but I wonder how many people actually buy those accessories that are available (such as the voice recorder and FM transmitter). It's one thing to pay a premium for a high-quality Apple iPod; it's another thing to pay $30 for a an add-on - for features that come standard with other MP3 devices!
Cripes. These iPods are like Rabbits in Australia!
Quid festinatio swallonis est aetherfuga inonusti?
Africus aut Europaeus?
I love that term, it makes it sound like there'll be an explosion. Everyone stop buying i-pods! it's our only hope!
...in this story that suggests that Apple's music dominance is not viewed as favourable by record labels. In fact, it mentions the labels' efforts to start working with wireless phone carriers to charge more for music via ring tones, which is "more in line with their economics".
DBA? Software Engineer? My company is hiring! Click
Takes a real Nostradamus to make such a bold prediction.
Insert tenuous ipod reference [here] to make slashdot front page.
When I can get one of these in the US for less than $100, then I will agree. Until then, there is more mass to be had before criticality.
I'm sure this was a report sponsored in part by Apple in an attempt to boos the stock price back up soon after Apple's stock got hammered by the Street because there are widespread concerns about what Apple does "next". i.e., is the Ipod a one-hit wonder?
I'm sure the Apple zealots will mod this into oblivion.
"I'd rather be a lightning rod than a seismometer." -Ken Kesey
I, for one, welcome our new digital music overlords. Wait, shit. Where am I?
Comment removed based on user account deletion
I can play MP3s on my phone, PDA, handheld...etc
Why is this even news? Maybe interesting to get a real article about this topic, but hardly news.
Don't be surpised to get a free "made in china" portable MP3 player with your next CD purchase.
Life is not for the lazy.
Now, nearly two years after Apple's iTunes launch, record executives have become worried that they have inadvertently ceded too much power over their industry to this charismatic computer executive.
Frustrated at what they see as Jobs' intransigence on song pricing and other issues, some record executives are now turning their hopes toward other partners...
Cripes, this is so damn typical of the entertainment industry. They're so interested in screwing everyone they can for a buck that the minute someone is successful using their property, they feel they need to bite back. It's rather like watching a bunch of cavemen around the first fire. One gets burned so they all put the fire out with their clubs, then thump their chests and hoot in victory before sitting around in the dark and cold again.
I think RIAA deserves the Duh! Prize (if there was one.) Next year or so it'll be the MPAA doing the same thing.
A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
I know a few people who spent their unemployment checks on iPods.
Gotta have priorities.
--
the strongest word is still the word "free"
Now all we need is a report of how many of those iPods are sent back for faulty manafacturing and instability...
I cringe everytime I see a person jogging down the street with their iPod on the side, listening to music. (If you didn't know the hard drive in the iPod if shaken/moved at an exact point when the HD spin, it can/will break the iPod and render it totally useless)
When will the quality of music reach tolerable mass?
If MP3 players are rapidly approaching critical mass, how long will it take before car stereos will feature minijack inputs as standard?
Considering the cost of including one versus the cost of replacing the deck so that you can plug your MP3 player in, why wouldn't more manufacturers be doing this? I know a few are, but I'm in the market for a new car and the deck that comes with it figures into the real cost. Replacing the stock stereo with one that will take input from my MP3 player should be unneccessary if these things are really at critical mass.
Synergy is your friend
They were talking about this on NPR yesterday, but instead of "critical mass" they called it market saturation.
Thats why Apple's stock took a dump yesterday
Problem for apple is that everyone already has an ipod and it will be tough to find new people to sell to.
Top 10 Reasons To Procrastinate
10.
Is anyone else suddenly feeling the overwhelming urge to chamber a round into their shotgun? Is this the same Jupiter that is hell-bent on screwing over the internet with spyware and adware? If so, how on god's green earth is it that we're taking their "research" seriously?
The iPod craze is officially over, because Jupiter Research said it is about to explode. Thanks, Jupiter! Thanks a lot!
These are guys who hyped "New Economy" companies until the dot-com bubble burst. With their razor scooters and their afros, they literally destroyed billions of dollars in market capitalization. There is no Earthly trend so massive, no business plan so potent, that Jupiter Research cannot destroy it.
That's why they are called Jupiter. They are big. They have a lot of destructive gravity. And they are made ENTIRELY of gas.
Do tell o' wise one, where may I see this promised land of the MP3 market? All I see are DRMed AACs, WMAs, RMs, whatever...
I'd be a very happy person if there was a legal MP3 market, but alas the title is misleading.
Do tell o' wise one, where may I see this promised land of the MP3 market?
You make a 74 minute long playlist of DRMed AACs, WMAs, and RMs and save them to an audio CD. Then you click on "Import as MP3". Yeh, you lose a miniscule amount of audio quality that you MAY be able to hear if you listen to it, but when you're walking down the street or sitting on a train with earbuds connected to your MP3 player... you'll never notice it.
Using the Casette Tape and Compact Disc as previous examples, let's look at other indicators:
- In car support for the media (3rd party manufacturers like Alpine are supporting iPod as well as luxury brands like BMW. GM is supporting all DAP's by making a front panel line in standard)
- In home support for the media (Apple Airport Express allows for music streaming)
- Portable support (just like the Walkman, we have the iPod)
- As seen on TV (plenty of Movies and TV shows with characters using the devices like a recent Law & Order that opened with two teens discussing how many songs can fit on an iPod)
- Major industry backing (from Microsoft to HP to Virgin Records, Digital Audio is supported by the Fortune 500 globally)
- Small business using the format in their name (don't we all miss "Tower Records" records? Or "CD Warehouse"? I am sure there are plenty of Web properties with iPod in the name. "iPodlounge.com" comes to mind.
I only came here to do two things; kick some ass, and drink some beer...looks like we're almost out of beer.
What are you talking about?
Apple's iPod has been able to play/hold non-compressed non lossy songs since day 1.
Take your $20 discman and throw it into the trash
Take your rack of CDs and import them as WAV, or if you want, lossless compressed ALE, into iTunes
Plug in an iPod and you have your 'rack of CDs' in the palm of your hand.
GPL Deconstructed
Good to see someone else concerned with this. If you buy an entire album off iTunes it will still cost you around the same as buying the album from Best Buy...except that the sound quality will be absolute shite. It's hard to tell on my crappy comp speakers, but on my home or car stereo it's painfully obvious.
I'd be more willing to buy MP3s if the cost reflected the audio quality.
Yep, these are the guys who proclaimed that "home taping is killing music" back in the 1980, and killed off DAT in the 1990s. The MPAA cried bloody murder when VHS hit the market, but amazingly the global film industry is still quite robust.
What really cracks me up is that the RIAA had their heads so far up their asses that they had *no strategy* whatsoever for online music sales until Jobs came along and offered them a way out. Now that they have a path away from stupidity, they're trying to jack prices up again, the same way they did with CDs.
It's like they're fundamentally unprepared to realize that the landscape is changing and that they can't make the same margins they used to make per song. They have to shift their entire way of doing business, but they're so fat and happy that it's like Jabba the Hut doing the long jump.
Read the EFF's Fair Use FAQ
can/will = can but you used the 'will' to somehow make your statement seem stronger than it is. In other words I'm accusing you of trying to mislead. I've run many miles with an iPod and it's spun up the drive many times during those runs. I won't argue with the 'can' but the 'will' is pure BS.
Doesn't it make you feel good to know that our freedoms are protected by politicans, lawyers and journalists.
Don't people understand that it is dangerous to ride a bicycle while listening to music!?
Every major religion recognizes that there was a man Jesus of Nazareth who lived about 2000 years ago in the land now known as Israel.
I think you might have a lot of trouble backing this up. Some major religious are not hierarchical and do not have a authoritative figure or body to make such declarations on their behalf. Even in religious organizations that do have such a structure, I doubt anything other than christianity recognizes your fact in the religion itself (which was how your statement was worded).
Aside from that you make a some good points. Don't be too hard on the original poster for being ignorant about christianity. Most evangelists I have spoken to who are trying to convert me seem to have never even read the bible and don't know what I'm talking about when I mention parts I remember from when I read it long ago.
They have little competition in their iPod space... so they sell at a premium and can walk away rich.
If they were to start making accessories, they'd be treding on ground either already successful for other makers (and therefore a smaller market) or an unsafe venture into the unknown.
Notice they do have a couple accessories... like the iPod Photo's new camera jack. But this is something they hinted at early on (giving other companies the hint: "We're Apple, With us making this product first, you won't stand a chance"), and now they have no competition for it.
Despite appearing to be a trend setter and a risk taker... they really do play it as safe as possible. iTMS was made only after years of research and watching the market... AND having a successful product to go with it. The iPod itself was just a luxury novelty item when it first came out... and Apple didn't care less if it didn't sell millions. Apple focused on what got it attention. OS X got it plenty of attention in those early iPod years. The G4 Cube was a publicity stunt. And if the iPod died just as hard as the Cube... they'd let it go and focus where they knew they could profit. They were one quarter the company they are now... and played their cards close to their chest... saving aces only for the Perfect moment... and spending tons on market research to make SURE.
Just drop acid, already, and invent something better... or quit your whining.
I agree with the grandparent post. "RIAA" is not a valid shorthand for "The Record Companies."
First of all, the RIAA is an organization which includes labels, artists, engineers, and many others who are connected in one way or another to the recording industry. That little set of preamp-adjusted ports in your dad's stereo that he plugs his turntable into? That is an example of an RIAA standard.
Secondly, the labels have been using "RIAA" as the plaintiff in several unpopular lawsuits for the specific purpose of getting people like you to think "damn RIAA" instead of "damn Sony, RCA, Virgin" when you get upset about your rights being trampled on. That way, folks keep buying their products like good little sheep without realizing who they should really be upset with. When you use "RIAA" as a "shorthand" for the real bad guys, you are helping their cause.
Information wants to be anthropomorphized.
I do understand, and I'm not responsible to fix anything to your satisfaction.
Actually, you just made it abundantly clear that you don't understand.
The RIAA is not a record label "cartel" at all. It's a trade guild, just as the anonymous coward who kicked this whole debate off pointed out, and "anti-piracy" activity, both legitimate and bullshit, is a very very small part of what they do.
In any case, the RIAA has nothing whatsoever to do with the dispute between Apple Computer and the labels in question.
Information wants to be anthropomorphized.
Errr.... no. In many industries, having a range of prices, especially that vary with time, allows not only for greater profits, but for larger numbers of satisfied customers. The math is a bit more involuted than a simple supply/demand scissors curve, because you also have to factor in substitutibility, price elasticity, and information costs, and time value of money, but in many situations this allows for a good thing all around.
This is one reason why grocery stores have sales; people who would not ordinarily buy a product at price X will consider buying it at price 0.9X. Furthermore, it's one reason why grocery stores accept manufacturers coupons; the customer gets a lower price, the grocery store gets slightly more money (for slightly more hassle), and the increased sales (and potentially increased regular customers) result in net higher profits for the manufacturer.
In this case, the RIAA is wishing that they could run the backcatalog at a discount, while charging a premium for newest releases. And if they were willing to, say, knock $0.24 off their current $0.65 share of the price for releases over 10 years old, while adding $0.01 to the recent releases and $0.25 to items released within the last year, I'd consider it likely to be a net benefit for consumers overall.
Someone with more background in economics and without a head cold might explain it better, but it comes down to: the ability for suppliers to have prices that vary is a good thing for the consumer. Unnaturally fixed prices (such as, say, when fixed by a cartel) are bad.
//Information does not want to be free; it wants to breed.
As far as MP3 hitting critical mass goes, isn't it already there?
Doesn't everybody already have some kind of hardware or software these days that can play the MP3 format?
What I want to see is audiobooks sold in MP3 CD format. Currently, audiobooks take a huge number of tapes (or conventional CD's) to hold audio, and because it's spoken word, it would compress very easily while still remaining high quality.
I've converted the Harry Potter books to MP3 CD's, and they sound great. The first two books even fit together on a single CD! All this was from a large stack of grossly inefficient standard audio CD's. No need to store spoken word at 44100x16x2 uncompressed!
I'm hoping the makers of audiobooks will realize that MP3 has already hit critical mass for years now....
Dr. Demento On The 'Net!
I think it is unfair to mod this as "offtopic." After all, we are talking about Apple. And Apple, much like Christianity, was founded by a messianic, charismatic figure who could perform wondrous miracles, such as turn water into wine or OS 9 into OSX. Is the Sermon on the Mount not unlike a MacWorld keynote? Did Steve not suffer for our sins at the hands of the prefect Sculley? Did he not wander in the wilderness before retuning to us with the UNIX keys to our salvation?
"Steve, I am not worthy to receive you, but only say the word and I shall buy a maxed-out 17 inch PowerBook and a top-of-the-line iPod."
Machiavelli, a graphic novel
When has the music industry *EVER* done this? When have they ever discussed doing it for online music? These guys have shown over and over again that they are interested in standardized pricing for music, punctuated only by *more expensive* pricing on certain high-demand albums.
If their track record wasn't so horrendous, I'd believe that they are truly interested in coming up with flexible pricing. But they've shown us nothing to indicate that they're really serious about doing anything other than holding on to their doomed business model for as long as possible.
Read the EFF's Fair Use FAQ