MS Expects Half of All 360 Owners To Use Live

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MS Expects Half of All 360 Owners To Use Live

Posted by Zonk on Friday September 30, 2005 @07:49AM from the meet-new-people-and-swear-at-them dept.

Gamespot is reporting that Xbox chief officer Robbie Bach expects half of all Xbox 360 owners to use the Live service. From the article: "Bach confirmed that currently, only 10 percent of Xbox owners--some 2 million users--subscribe to Xbox Live. With the addition of the free 'Silver' version of Xbox Live, Bach believes that about 50 percent of the console's owners will go online via the 360. However, they will still have to pay to play games online via the new Xbox Live Gold."

35 of 49 comments (clear)

Not too outlandish... by RoadDoggFL · 2005-09-30 07:59 · Score: 4, Insightful

When you consider that Xbox Live Silver will be free, will have barely any features, and will likely be forced down people's throats. Though I guess some of that expectation can be attributed to increased utility withing Xbox Live itself and more people with broadband.

--
"This is considered plagiarism."
1. Re:Not too outlandish... by Gogo0 · 2005-09-30 09:27 · Score: 3, Interesting
  
  Wait until MS pushes a firmware patch or something over Live and claim the next day that over 90% of owners "use" Live.
  Though to be fair, it would be retarded to not spin that for marketing.
2. Re:Not too outlandish... by Miguel+de+Icaza · 2005-09-30 13:59 · Score: 3, Insightful
  
  yeah, since the basic and severley limited live service is going to be free, and early xbox1.5 consumers will be in a demographic that mostly already has a suitable high-bandwidth connection - obviously 50% to use live is a conservative estimate. How many will subscribe? -probably a high proporion of early adopters but a year in, when the cost of the console drops - a much smaller proportion since these are mostly casual gamers with lower disposable income.
  
  i saw a presention the other day that predicted the ps2 will outsell (worldwide) the 360 this christmas by at least a factor of 5. The psp is expected to just outsell the 360 with many playstation-lifestylers opting to put a shiny psp in their stocking and wait for the ps3.
  
  it is incredible testement to sony that a six year old console is expected to be able to hold off competion from a new console one-and-a-half generations ahead in technology.
  
  Also if microsoft launched the 360 with halo3 then they could guarantee non-damp first month sales. Because the launch line-up is weak tithout a new halo incarnation there is a very real chance that this baby will be a flop for its first 6 months.
  
  Other factors worrying for microsoft:
  1. Many Xbox owners, are relatively recent purchacers - they are not ready for the next cycle and still want to get value from exiting generation (they are about to feel abandonned when microsoft halt all xbox1 activity in next few months)
  
  2. Use of DVD media. A percieved weakness by publishers - allows cheap piracy to continue for next decade when the DRM is inevitably cracked. Publishers suspect microsoft may be using easy-piracy to drive next gen sales. note blueray will not be easy for j6p to crack for several years (or ever if blue-ray fals on its face - in this sense sony are playing a clever no-lose game).
  
  3. lack of inovation. in fact innovation has moved backwards with no harddrive as standard. In the face of the revolution controller (and sonys eye-toy as standard with ps3) and even NO WIRELESS AS STANDARD the package is looking decidedly not very next generation.
  
  4. lack of backwards compatibility. not a big deal - or at least never has been, but nintendo are going to have compatibility going 4 generations back! and sony will have ps1/ps2 compatibilty. so while nobody really cares after a month of ownership - it looks really lame in the shop window.
  
  5. japan. MS are going to spend $billions this time - and eveyone (EVERYONE) knows it will flop. 100% certainty. Microsoft shareholders should be screaming murder (but they are sheep)
  
  Its ok for consoles to have slow starts. But if xbox360 has a slow first 6 months and then gets lost in ps3 and revolution hype - then it will be a disaster for microsoft as they will face a 2nd generation where they must effectively bribe (both in subsidies and easily pirated games) consumers to buy their product. MS have budgeted to lose money in console business for one generation only. Their pockets may be bottomless but their shareholders patience is not. Heres my quote to take away:
  
  there are better things to blow $10billion on than coming joint second in a one horse race.
  
  --
  Before adopting WHATWG, read the moonlight.NET EULA [http://www.microsoft.com/interop/msnovellcollab/moonlight.mspx]
No problem! by Shadow+Wrought · 2005-09-30 08:00 · Score: 1

All they have to do is sell no more than 400,000 units and they're set!

--
If brevity is the soul of wit, then how does one explain Twitter?
Incentive by bclark · 2005-09-30 08:01 · Score: 5, Interesting

What can you do with Xbox Live Silver? Download more content? I don't really understand what the incentive is for companies to release free downloadable content. I mean, they've already got your money. Seems like the smart thing to do would be to save any new content you create and release an updated or director's cut version later, or adopt the EA model and if the game is successful, just start releasing it every year with very small changes. Paid downloadable content makes sense, at least, but I don't see how big a part of the 360 strategy that is. The important number for Microsoft should be how many more people can they get to pay for Xbox Gold, especially if the price is going up compared to current Xbox Live rates.
1. Re:Incentive by dootbran · 2005-09-30 08:35 · Score: 2, Interesting
  
  I think silver being added in an effort to increase the sales of payed DLC. Not only does it let you reach a wider audience by not requiring them to pay a subscription first but it also separates the Live payment from the DLC value in the users mind.
  
  At them moment a lot of users probably feel like developers are double dipping by charging for DLC. Now they are being more explicit, multiplayer is $50/year while DLC and friends lists are free. Now even though I pay my $50/year, I don't see that DLC as being part of what I'm paying for and I don't feel like I already payed for that PGR3 PDLC ($5) when I payed for my live subscription.
  
  I guess if you look at it like that they are raising the price. You are getting fewer additional services for the same price.
2. Re:Incentive by ZakuSage · 2005-09-30 09:28 · Score: 1
  
  Free downloadable content is a feature of a game that adds value to the game, and allows developers to get games out faster by releasing stuff later. Wipeout Pure (for PSP) has been getting free downloadable tracks and it's been working out pretty good for them.
3. Re:Incentive by Castar · 2005-09-30 09:49 · Score: 1
  
  I don't think free is the focus. From everything MS has been talking about, the Live Marketplace is the interesting part to them and to developers - Small payments for new skins, levels, wallpapers and stuff. Some of it might be free, but so far MS has been mostly pushing it as a place to sell things (hence the name).
  
  --
  I yearn for you tragically. A. T. Tappman, Chaplain, U.S. Army.
4. Re:Incentive by Delphiki · 2005-09-30 10:05 · Score: 2, Interesting
  
  One thing that I'm looking forward to doing with Xbox Live that you can do with Silver is chat with friends via text or voice, even if you're both playing offline, single player games. It's not a big enough feature to sell a lot of systems, but I think I'm definitely looking forward to it.
  
  --
  Feel free to mod me "-1 - Angry Jerk".
5. Re:Incentive by Scudsucker · 2005-10-02 14:03 · Score: 1
  
  I don't really understand what the incentive is for companies to release free downloadable content.
  
  Many reasons: new content helps keep their game in the news and encourages new sales. Sometimes the content isn't even "new", it was stuff that was cut out of the game to meet a release date and has now been put back in. It allows the publisher to keep re-releasing the game with new maps and mods while keeping the price up; you could find Half-Life packages on shelves going for $50 just before Half-Life 2 shipped. New stuff can encourage first time buyers to keep playing, making for a larger online community. Finally, you might win the proverbial lottery and an expansion or mod will be more popular than the origional game, a la Counter-Strike.
Nintendo too by ShadowMarth · 2005-09-30 08:03 · Score: 3, Informative

Nintendo is trying to achieve 75% online penetration of the DS and Revolution market, and they're making good strides.
1. Re:Nintendo too by ZakuSage · 2005-09-30 09:22 · Score: 1
  
  Are any games online on DS yet? I really haven't been following it, but didn't they push back most online games until next year?
2. Re:Nintendo too by Red+Flayer · 2005-09-30 09:38 · Score: 1
  
  " Nintendo is trying to achieve 75% online penetration of the DS and Revolution market, and they're making good strides."
  
  Um, you mean 75% penetration of the DS & Revolution user base. The DS & Revolution markets are everyone that plays video games on a hand-held or a console... If Nintendo were to achieve 75% of that market, I'd be a little surprised.
  
  --
  "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
3. Re:Nintendo too by Castar · 2005-09-30 10:00 · Score: 4, Insightful
  
  I don't think lawsuits are what Nintendo is afraid of - they're afraid of a bad user experience for the new gamers they're trying to usher in.
  
  If you've played online on Live or PS2, you'll understand. The language, while offensive, is nothing compared to the childishness, the racism, the homophobia, the sexual harrasment... Imagine being in High School, except everyone is anonymous and thus can't be held accountable for anything they say. (cf. John Gabriel's Greater Internet Fuckwad Theory) I'm a hardcore gamer, not easily offended, and *I* certainly don't want to play with voice chat in SOCOM or BattleField. It's like swimming in the raw sewage of humanity.
  
  If your last gaming experience was Super Mario Bros. 3, and you're enticed back in to gaming when you have kids, a wife, and a mortgage, you don't want to be called a mexican jew lizard in Mario Kart by some 14-year-old in Alabama. You might not sue over it, but you're sure not going to play online any more, regardless of whether you were warned or not.
  
  --
  I yearn for you tragically. A. T. Tappman, Chaplain, U.S. Army.
4. Re:Nintendo too by KDR_11k · 2005-10-01 01:52 · Score: 1
  
  Any online service that involves children is worried about child abusers using the service to find victims.
  
  --
  Justice is the sheep getting arrested while an impartial judge declares the vote void.
5. Re:Nintendo too by superpulpsicle · 2005-10-01 04:18 · Score: 1
  
  You are so right on this. The US online console markets are downright offensive. Unlike PC gaming where there "might" be an administrator, console games are mostly peer to peer.
  
  Screamers have rendered my headphones obsolete. The languages and racists comments are beyond acceptable. I ALWAYS thought I have seen it all. But I am proven wrong everytime.
What's the point... by five40kix · 2005-09-30 08:22 · Score: 3, Funny

If I can't play games with the silver package...then I might as well go online with something called a PC!
1. Re:What's the point... by PeeweeJD · 2005-10-03 04:55 · Score: 1
  
  go ahead and sit in your crappy office chair in the basement illuminated with a flourescent light bar and muck up your keyboard with your cheeto cheese covered fingertips and play WOW then with your face 9" away from your 17" monitor then. I'm gonna sit on my couch and play some kickass games on my big ass tv with my kids and friends.
  
  pc gaming != console gaming
2. Re:What's the point... by PeeweeJD · 2005-10-14 05:24 · Score: 1
  
  and... congratulations, you're 10 days late (which makes you a dumbass too).
Just One More Feature And I Would Sign Up.... by BRock97 · 2005-09-30 08:28 · Score: 2, Interesting

You know, how hard is it to add keyboard and mouse support to the 360? Come on, seriously. Sadly, I am a gamer that was raised on the keyboard and mouse for my first person shooters and until I can have that on my console, I won't jump ship. Everything else is finally there, IMHO. Broadband connections, hi-res display via HDTV, most of the things that the PC was able to hold over the head of the console game systems. Just not this last thing.

Sadly, though, I can see why they are doing it. I firmly believe that a user with a keyboard and mouse will have an unfair advantage over the controller user with the auto-aiming. And it isn't like it would be hard for Microsoft to do something about it. How about different lounges in the games based on what you were using to control the game? Seriously, you let me use a mouse/keyboard combo, and I will sign up for your Live service.

--

Bryan R.
The price of freedom is eternal vigilance, or $12.50 as seen on eBay.....
1. Re:Just One More Feature And I Would Sign Up.... by Rancidlunchmeat · 2005-09-30 08:40 · Score: 1
  
  Why would MS include mouse and keyboard support? To kill of PC gaming? That'd be simply brilliant by them! :roll eyes:
  
  If there was no PC gaming, there would be no graphics card industry. There'd be no need to upgrade your motherboard and CPU every 2 years. Yes, it'd be brilliant of MS to include mouse and keyboard support for the X360 so they can have a hand in killing off nVidia, ATI, Intel, AMD, and every other PC manufacturer that depends on consumer upgrades every year or two in order to stay in business.
  
  Also, PC gaming is what not only fuels the upgrade cycle, it is what fuels the replacement cycle. Sure, some people "transfer" windows licenses from their old box to their new, but a great majority of people keep their old box and give it to their wife, their kids, maybe sell it to their neighbor, or give it to their parents to use for checking email. All those people then buy NEW licenses for Windows XP SuperDuper Version for their new system.
  
  So MS doesn't just kill off their partners by including mouse/keyboard support, they take revenue away from themselves too.
  
  Face it, without PC gaming there'd be no reason for 99% of residential consumers to upgrade or replace their computers outside of 5 years. How fast of a machine do you need to surf the web, write email, use Word and Excel? My 900mhz celeron based system does all that just fine and dandy. My 3.8 PIV with 1 gig of ram and a 6800GT doesn't perform noticably better when I'm writing a letter in Word.
  
  But it sure makes playing Far Cry a whole different experience!
2. Re:Just One More Feature And I Would Sign Up.... by hollismb · 2005-09-30 08:56 · Score: 2, Interesting
  
  Sadly, though, I can see why they are doing it. I firmly believe that a user with a keyboard and mouse will have an unfair advantage over the controller user with the auto-aiming. And it isn't like it would be hard for Microsoft to do something about it. How about different lounges in the games based on what you were using to control the game? Seriously, you let me use a mouse/keyboard combo, and I will sign up for your Live service.
  You're right about that, because it's been done before with Quake 3 on the Dreamcast. I don't recall completely whether it was that you could use a KB/M on the Dreamcast (which you could), or whether PC players could gt in the mix as well, but the end result was simple: if you used a controller, you got TOTALLY OWNED. There simply wasn't even a button combination that would even allow you to move, zoom, and shoot at the same time that was even close to workable on the controller, which thankfully, the dual analog sticks on the PS2 and Xbox controllers have taken care of. But back then, the concept of a headshot while moving just plain didn't work.
  
  That being said, your idea isn't so bad. Determine which people are using a KB/M, and don't let them play with the controller folks. Don't even make it an option, because aside from maybe Halo 2 or Ghost Recon, both of which move fairly slowly and have some sort of sticky auto-aim, the mouse folks would rock the controller folks' world. If that ever happens where these two groups can play together again on a console, I guarantee you I won't even consider buying that game. Some of us like sitting back on the couch, feet up, with a controller in hand, as opposed to messing around with a keyboard and mouse, which would require all sorts of complication, some sort of lap contraption, or sitting at a desk. That's what PCs are for, and why I'd rather not play games on one.
3. Re:Just One More Feature And I Would Sign Up.... by RoadDoggFL · 2005-09-30 09:09 · Score: 2, Informative
  
  FYI: Q3A let PC and DC players play each other, both using a mouse and keyboard (and I think Q3A supported the DC's BBA).
  
  --
  "This is considered plagiarism."
Re:Microsoft Wises Up by dootbran · 2005-09-30 08:45 · Score: 1

The online play is not free, that is what Gold is for. They will have free weekends for Silver members to play for free but those won't be the norm.

From what I understand Silver only gives you access to a friends list, voice chat, and downloadable content (some of which must be purchased).

BTW, as an xbox live subscriber, I'm quite satisfied with the service that I get for $50 a year :)
Re:Microsoft Wises Up by RoadDoggFL · 2005-09-30 08:52 · Score: 1

It's cute that you posted anonymously. I wonder why...

So you're calling MS's subscription-based online gaming network a failure? So what would you call Sony's gaming network setup for the PS2? I'd really be interested to see what the statistics are for households that COULD get Xbox Live but don't. I think that's the figure you should be bragging about, how many homes have an Xbox and access to a broadband conenction but choose not to pay?

--
"This is considered plagiarism."
Woah by Digital+Vomit · 2005-09-30 09:11 · Score: 4, Funny

I read that as "MS Expects Half of All 360 Owners To Live"
That's one harsh console.

--
Modern copyright is theft of culture from everyone and it retards the progress of the useful arts and sciences.
1. Re:Woah by Red+Flayer · 2005-09-30 09:43 · Score: 1
  
  " I read that as 'MS Expects Half of All 360 Owners To Live'
  That's one harsh console."
  
  Actually, that's a pretty sweet console. If MS only expects half of 360 owners to die... half of 360 owners become immortal?
  
  I'll buy two 360 bundles to get a 75% chance!
  
  --
  "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
2. Re:Woah by jmauro · 2005-09-30 15:52 · Score: 1
  
  Ether that or Microsoft expects half of the boxes to be purchased by the undead.
3. Re:Woah by Anonymous Coward · 2005-10-01 01:08 · Score: 1, Funny
  
  Only the strong will be able to survive the onslaught of entertainment that Xbox360 will cause.
Re:Microsoft Wises Up by AuMatar · 2005-09-30 09:28 · Score: 1

Well, less than 10% of Xbox owners bough Live (from the story). So it should be at or about 90%. Maybe as low as 80% due to people out of broadband range.

--
I still have more fans than freaks. WTF is wrong with you people?
Re:Pretty logical... by Zangief · 2005-09-30 10:07 · Score: 1

D'oh! I forgot that Live is not free.

Everything I wrote is wrong.
Re:Microsoft Wises Up by 88NoSoup4U88 · 2005-09-30 17:02 · Score: 1

From what I understand Silver only gives you access to a friends list, voice chat, and downloadable content (some of which must be purchased).
You'll also be able to spectate games (if they have a multiplayer component) : Thus enticing someone to get that Gold subscription.
Re:Microsoft Wises Up by si618 · 2005-10-01 01:39 · Score: 1

as a Xlink Kai and XBMC user, i'm very satisfied with the service that I get for $0 a year :D

--
Sometimes I doubt your commitment to Sparkle Motion
Re:Microsoft Wises Up by phxbadash · 2005-10-02 05:05 · Score: 1

Why is this modded flamebait?

Schmucks is about the least offensive way of calling someone a moron I've ever heard. Which if you haven't played tried burnout online yet you are most definitely.
Re:I'd rather see the % of people who would... by AlexMax2742 · 2005-10-02 10:35 · Score: 1

I play mine all the time. My Gamecube is sitting at home collecting dust and my Playstation 2 is sitting somewhere at home as well as a result of a botched mod job because there wasn't a bunch of titles on it domesticly that interested me.

--
I'm the guy with the unpopular opinion