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Capitalizing on Melting Polar Ice

efuzzyone writes "As an affect of global warming, the polar ice caps seem to be slowly receding, what do you do? The NYT reports it is a gold rush, 'the Arctic is undergoing nothing less than a great rush for virgin territory and natural resources worth hundreds of billions of dollars.' Also, 'polar thaw is also starting to unlock other treasures: lucrative shipping routes, perhaps even the storied Northwest Passage; new cruise ship destinations; and important commercial fisheries.'"

80 of 505 comments (clear)

  1. Yep by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    I can hear Pres. Bush's spin on it now: "...Just imagine the further untapped resources we could discover by not joining the Kyoto agreement."

    1. Re:Yep by Armadni+General · · Score: 3, Informative

      It was President Clinton who first refused to agree to the Kyoto Protocols. Another fact, left out so you could take a cheap shot on the President. Oh well.

    2. Re:Yep by SnarfQuest · · Score: 2, Funny

      If he would just sign it, then we can save the mars ice-caps! They are obviously being destroyed by American SUV's polluting the Martian atmosphere! And by the lack of Pirates! Until the Koyoto protocol includes a method to increase the number of pirates in the world, it will never be able to solve global warming!

      --
      Who would win this election: Andrew Weiner vs Andrew Weiner's weiner.
    3. Re:Yep by jcr · · Score: 5, Informative

      Actually, the Kyoto treaty was unanimously rejected by the senate. See Senate Resolution 98 (1997).

      -jcr

      --
      The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
    4. Re:Yep by aklix · · Score: 2, Funny

      You forgot his laugh that he uses on even the most serious subjects.

      EhEhEhEhEhEh :)

    5. Re:Yep by TheDracle · · Score: 4, Informative

      http://www.environmentaldefense.org/pressrelease.c fm?ContentID=499

      It's easy to overlook 'facts' when they are in reality fiction.

      In reality Clinton's administration negotiated, supported, and he personally eventually signed the Kyoto protocol.

      "Former President Clinton's vice president, Al Gore, negotiated the treaty for the United States and had a major role in its final form."

      According to Wikipedia:
      "On June 25, 1997, before the Kyoto Protocol was to be negotiated, the U.S. Senate unanimously passed by a 95-0 vote the Byrd-Hagel Resolution (S. Res. 98), which stated the sense of the Senate was that the United States should not be a signatory to any protocol that did not include binding targets and timetables for developing as well as industrialized nations or "would result in serious harm to the economy of the United States". On November 12, 1998, Vice President Al Gore symbolically signed the protocol. Aware of the Senate's view of the protocol, the Clinton Administration never submitted the protocol for ratification."

      The criticism is that Bush doesn't support the Kyoto protocol. If Clinton commanded a congress with a dominant Democrat majority, as Bush commands a Republican majority, the Kyoto protocol would have passed under his administration.

      His administration undeniably supported the Kyoto protocol.

      It seems very strange for me to hear conservatives, which I'm sure you undeniably are, cry foul at simply criticizing the policy of the Bush administration. The only way you could find these criticisms innately negative, is if you agreed that the policy they criticize is innately negative. Clinton suffered an array of actual 'shots' that had nothing to do with his policy, by 24 hour cable news networks, and independent councils; working full time to dig up information on fabricated crimes he supposedly committed (yet predictably never yielded anything substantial).

    6. Re:Yep by maelstrom · · Score: 5, Insightful

      "U.S. Senate unanimously passed by a 95-0 vote the Byrd-Hagel Resolution (S. Res. 98), which stated the sense of the Senate was that the United States should not be a signatory ... "

      "If Clinton commanded a congress with a dominant Democrat majority, as Bush commands a Republican majority, the Kyoto protocol would have passed under his administration."

      Please explain to me this contradiction. Or are you saying that there was 95 Republicans in the Senate and 5 Democrats?

      --
      The more you know, the less you understand.
  2. and, by Hawthorne01 · · Score: 4, Funny

    beachfront property in Sacramento!

    --
    "Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former."
  3. This is great! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    When the air gets too polluted to breathe, I'll finally be able to make my money selling oxygen franchises! I love the free market!

  4. Wow! by springbox · · Score: 4, Insightful
    polar thaw is also starting to unlock other treasures: lucrative shipping routes, perhaps even the storied Northwest Passage; new cruise ship destinations; and important commercial fisheries

    With all of these benefits who cares about preventing damage to our environment?!</sarcasm>

    1. Re:Wow! by eh2o · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yes, the environment can adapt and recover, but really the problems that global warming entails are problems for *humans* -- primarily issues of health and economics.

    2. Re:Wow! by operagost · · Score: 4, Informative
      If you look at the temperature trends for the Arctic region since 1880, it appears that the Arctic generally warmed somewhat until about 1938. From 1938 until about 1966, the Arctic cooled to about its 1918 temperature level. Then, between 1966 and 2003, the Arctic warmed up to just shy of its 1938 temperature. But in 2004, the Arctic temperature again spiked downward.

      Now if the 1880-1938 warming trend had continued up until this day, there certainly would be some significant warming in the Arctic region to talk about. From 1918 to 1938, alone, the Arctic warmed by 2.5 degrees Centigrade. But the actual temperature trend is much different, showing that there's been hardly any overall temperature change in the Arctic since 1938.

      Not only does the temperature data contradict the claim that global warming is overtaking the Arctic, but data on greenhouse gas concentrations ought to drive a spike through the heart of the claim.

      During the warming period from 1880 to 1938, it's estimated that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide - the bugbear of greenhouse gases to global warming worriers - increased by an estimated 20 parts per million. But from 1938 to 2003 - a period of essentially no increase in Arctic warming - the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide increased another 60 parts per million. It doesn't seem plausible, then, that Arctic temperatures are significantly influenced by atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases.

      And even when the Arctic re-warmed between 1966 and 2003, the warming occurred much less aggressively (about 50 percent less) than the 1918-1938 warming and at about the same rate as the period 1880-1938, despite much higher greenhouse gas levels in the 1966-2003 time frame.
      See article here.
      Especially take note of this chart
      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    3. Re:Wow! by ckedge · · Score: 3, Insightful

      .
      Your argument is a logical fallacy. It does not disprove a link between CO2 and temperatures on earth, it simply shows that it's not as simple and straight forward as you'd wish. If there was a 1:1 correspondence between CO2 and temperature anywhere, figuring this all out would be a piece of cake.

      The fact that there isn't a 1:1 correspondence does not mean that there is no effect. It just means that the timescale and other factors affecting temperatures over the course of 5-30 years is not insignificant.

      I find it absurd that you are attempting to discredit something using a 30 year timescale when all of the scientific community is studying data covering a half million years to try and figure out how big the CO2 effect is.

      Finally looking at the chart you quoted, you are doing something that every newbie BSc/MSc student does - you are giving a huge weight to minor jigs and jags in a graph. I look at that graph, and I see an upward trend over the past 120 years. At most we can say there is a dip of some type between 1960 and 1990 - geeze, wonder what caused that, maybe there are other mechanisms that affect how warm the earth is? You figure? The existence of other things (say a volcanoe lowering temps for 10 years) doesn't disprove a link between CO2 and temperature.

      What I love about the American viewpoint towards Kyoto is the whining child like "if they won't do it then I won't either", along with the obstinate expectation that just because everyone else in the world isn't industrialized yet they shouldn't ever be allowed to have an industrialized first world emission level. A real adult would realize that it's not a valid excuse to do nothing ourselves. How can we ever ask them (once they are getting fully industrialized) to keep their emissions down when you've spent another 50 years with no restrictions? You want to wait until they're as bad as you to finally have everyone agree to the same targets? Idiotic and short sighted.
      .

  5. Great. by Sebby · · Score: 4, Funny

    "lucrative shipping routes, perhaps even the storied Northwest Passage; new cruise ship destinations; and important commercial fisheries."

    Great. Add more pollution to the area. Just what it needs! :)

    --

    AC comments get piped to /dev/null
  6. And thats not all by Don_Casper · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Not to mention the rising waters flooding pacific islands. Good trade off, cruise destinations in the pacific get flooded, and cruise destinations in the polar region open up.

  7. The first thing I though of.. by Brad1138 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    After reading the title, was U.S. and Halliburton.

    (I live in U.S.)

    --
    If you could reason with religious people, there would be no religious people
    1. Re:The first thing I though of.. by OverlordQ · · Score: 3, Insightful

      First thing I thought of was "Whoop-de-fricken-do" times changes, climates changes, the land changes. Nothing new here, move along.

      --
      Your hair look like poop, Bob! - Wanker.
  8. Pirates? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    Let's all hope the gold will attract more pirates!

    1. Re:Pirates? by lexarius · · Score: 3, Funny

      Yes. We need more than 17.

  9. How ironic by Pinball+Wizard · · Score: 5, Insightful

    that global warming would lead to new oil discoveries.

    --

    No, Thursday's out. How about never - is never good for you?

  10. DONT FEEL RIGHT by ICEcalibur · · Score: 3, Insightful

    "Also, 'polar thaw is also starting to unlock other treasures: lucrative shipping routes, perhaps even the storied Northwest Passage" I think the melting ice will unlock a treasure all right....and its a treasure that we should bother looking for....like pandoras box..???

  11. Nah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    Sacramento is in the middle of a valley with a big river (coincidentally *also* called Sacramento) running through it. If anything, Sacramento will be on the bottom of the California Archipelago's Great Central Sea.

  12. Anyone.. by Turn-X+Alphonse · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Anyone else feel sick when you read things like this? If the human race is that fucking stupid then we deserve to drown in the flood we'll end up making. Saddly a handful will probably survive it.. most likely the rich ones who can aford to hoard boats, food and drinkable water...

    Money : Because killing 6 billion people just to make some more was so worth it, now that it's totally useless because everyones dead and paper has no use when it's already doodled on.

    --
    I like muppets.
    1. Re:Anyone.. by icepick72 · · Score: 3, Funny

      Wow, it's going to be just like the movie Waterworld. A lot of people said that movie sucks, but obviously it holds the keys to survival in the future. I'm going out to buy my copy right now, along with the other 4 billion of you. Who knew! Maybe even Duke Nukem forever will provide useful information ... if it arrives in time.

    2. Re:Anyone.. by Yorrike · · Score: 5, Informative
      Having almost finished a geology degree (3 exams to go), I've run through the exercise of calculating exactly how high the ocean would go if the ice caps melted many a time.

      Here's the thing, if there's more water, there's more weight on the crust, which will subside a bit. Cutting a long story short and without explaining the ins and outs of crustal isostasy, if your house, water source and farmland is above 75m in elevation, you'll be alright.

      Otherwise, to quote Tool's very appropriate song Aenima, learn to swim.

      --

      Looks can be deceiving. Or CAN they?

    3. Re:Anyone.. by SQL+Error · · Score: 2, Interesting

      If all of the Antarctic ice melted, sea levels around the world would rise about 61 meters (200 feet).

      Nice work with the selective quoting, bub.

      Very next line:

      But the average temperature in Antarctica is -37C, so the ice there is in no danger of melting. In fact in most parts of the continent it never gets above freezing.

      If we raise the average temperature on Earth by 37C, we'll probably all be dead anyway, so the flooding will be kind of irrelevant.

    4. Re:Anyone.. by CastrTroy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Look at the recent flood in America.. now think of that flood was in one of the African slums where they can hardly eat.

      Kind of like that tsunami that hit indonesia a little while back. Tons of devastation, killed over 100,000 people. Wikipedia reports only 1200 deaths from hurricane katrina. Only 2000 US soldiers have died in Iraq. 200,000 Allied soldiers died during the battle of normandy. Americans don't even remember what real devastation is, and some have never ever experienced it. At least not first hand. They hear about it on the news, but it's hard to relate to pictures on a tv screen. Maybe this is why so many people forget how vulnerable we are. Because in the last 50 years, there has been very little in terms of real devastation.

      --

      Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
    5. Re:Anyone.. by CastrTroy · · Score: 2, Interesting

      But what would happen, billions of years in the future, once all the ice melts, and all the land erodes to a point where it's pretty much all flat, and therefore water does cover the entire surface? I wonder how long it would take for this to happen, or if it could ever happen, because land would be recreated by shifting techtonic plates, and volcanos and such.

      --

      Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
    6. Re:Anyone.. by jcr · · Score: 3, Informative

      Perhaps you can explain to us how the arctic ice, floating in the ocean, could raise the sea level by melting?

      The floating ice won't. It's the ice that's deposited on land (Antarctica, Greenland, Northern Canada, etc.) that will.

      -jcr

      --
      The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
    7. Re:Anyone.. by CastrTroy · · Score: 2, Informative

      It's getting too late. I need to get to bed, since I obviously can't read. although I should point everyone towards this site which points out some battles that cause many more deaths than normandy.

      --

      Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
  13. reminds me of a simpson plot. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    This kinda reminds me of the simpson episode where bart finds a three eyed fish in the stream by the power plant. Mr. Burns decides to run for office and starts trumping up how good the three eyed fish is for the enviroment and is better to eat yada yada yada.

  14. New cruise ship destinations? by britneys+9th+husband · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Great, I can fulfill my lifelong dream of going on a cruise from the Yukon to Siberia. Meanwhile, all the good cruise ship destinations will be closed off because hurricane season will last 10 months.

    --
    Hear recorded Slashdot headlines on your phone! New service beta testing. Just call (248) 434-5508
    1. Re:New cruise ship destinations? by Tablizer · · Score: 2, Funny

      1955: "Oh Fuck, I'm being sent to Siberia"

      2060: "Woopeee! Were gonna cruze to green Siberia!"

  15. Suddenly Canada becomes desireable! by incom · · Score: 4, Funny

    Maybe my acres of permafrosted land around hudson's bay weren't such a bad investment afterall! Drive those SUV's boys, I want palms and bannana trees in my scenery!

    --
    True genius is grasping a situation like a peice of fruit, and peircing it just right so that it drains dry.
  16. Lemmings for sale by sp3298622 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Capitalism on the arctic can be a risky venture. When you bring in companies that are established to deliver on share holders profit, it is hard to guess what kind of a route these companies might take. Without clear laws and regulations limiting how companies exploit this new "gold mine" we might end up with something like the US Patent laws, where large corporations take advantage of the ability to patent anything they can think about. I the arctic scenario this could lead to fishing companies endangering many species, tour companies damaging the habitat of local wildlife, oil exploration polluting the air and water. We must establish clear baselines to prevent this happening! Lemmings look like fat furry hamsters. They have strong legs and claws for digging. Thick fur helps to keep them warm. Lemmings live in the arctic. --- Sydney Computer Support

  17. Gammar is important too! by xiphoris · · Score: 3, Informative

    Affect and effect are both nouns and both verbs, but the one you wanted was "effect".

    An effect (n) is something that happens as a result of some action.

    To effect (v) a change is to cause a change to occur.

    A affect (n) is a feeling or emotion you feel.

    To affect (v) something is to change it through your actions. To affect something is to effect a change in it. :)

    Being the intelligent people we are, with great precision in our computer languages, let's not ride the wave of many technologists who believe they are too good to condescend to write English properly. Strive to do well in all things.

    1. Re:Gammar is important too! by KylePflug · · Score: 2, Informative

      You also shouldn't have used the word "gammar." On account of it's not. A word, that is.

  18. Denial of global warming by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    Those who deny global warming are just so predictable.

    First they say "there is no such thing as global warming."
    Then they say "there is no proof that there is global warming."
    Now they say "there is no proof that global warming is bad."
    And they say "look, global warming is good!"
    Soon they'll say "there is no proof that God didn't make this happen."
    Then they'll say "it's written right here in the book that this will happen."
    Then they'll say "it's one more reason to believe. God works in strange and mysterious ways."
    Then they'll say "of course Haliburton should get a no-bid contract to build levees around North America."
    Then they'll say "of course all the blue states on the coasts should pay for their own levees, while paying to subsidize the farms of the red states."
    Then they'll say "isn't global warming wonderful! Praise the Lord!"

  19. Sovereignty a huge issue... by Hamster+Lover · · Score: 4, Informative

    Canada considers the Artic to be an internal water way and as such maintains dominion over all shipping in the area. The U.S., no surprise, considers the area to be international waters. As the ice recedes and the fabled Northwest Passage becomes a reality look for increased tension between the United States and Canada over control of shipping in the area (like we need more tension than already exists).

    Unfortunately, Canada will probably roll over and let the U.S. have it's way on the sovereignty issue as we've done in the past when the U.S. ice breaker Polar Sea transited the Northwest Passage in 1985.

  20. Eep by thegnu · · Score: 5, Funny

    'polar thaw is also starting to unlock other treasures: lucrative shipping routes, perhaps even the storied Northwest Passage

    Primarily, this will open up trades route with Hell, which incidentally is short on handbaskets.

    --
    Please stop stalking me, bro.
  21. Re:Maybe we should worry about the ice, not profit by pmc · · Score: 2, Informative

    That's nothing. The headline says "affect". Obviously it should be "effect".

    Dumb humans.

  22. Re:Maybe we should worry about the ice, not profit by saskboy · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I've actually heard someone say that they'd rather have more money than cleaner air. I guess they don't think breathing well would improve their life.

    "I can always buy air filters with my money," or something to that effect. It's gosh darn arrogant goatse-holes like that that make the world a harder place to live.

    --
    Saskboy's blog is good. 9 out of 10 dentists agree.
  23. Pretty rocks. by jericho4.0 · · Score: 4, Informative
    I live in the Selkirk range in BC. Every summer the glaciers retreat a little further, and I've been making a point of trying to explore some of this newly uncovered land. I have found lots of pretty crystals and other mineral samples.

    Still, global warming is not a plus for me. The ski season is getting shorter :-(

    --
    "A language that doesn't affect the way you think about programming, is not worth knowing" - Alan Perlis
  24. Pacific islands aren't going anywhere by amightywind · · Score: 3, Informative

    Not to mention the rising waters flooding pacific islands. Good trade off, cruise destinations in the pacific get flooded, and cruise destinations in the polar region open up.

    Ever wonder why many Pacific islands are at sea level? Most are volcanoes eroded to sea level. They become atolls through processes of erosion and a buildup of calcium carbonate that form a ring around the eroded ediface. As sea level rises deposition by coral will equalize with rising sea level. Indeed, flooding by major storms is the *only* mechanism where new material is deposited above sea level at all! This is not new. It has going for the last 12000 years since the end of the last ice age as sea level has risen several meters. So relax, the Pacific islands aren't going anywhere. Why do people discard rational thought when discussing the Kyoto treaty?

    --
    an ill wind that blows no good
  25. help me out here... by CDPatten · · Score: 2, Insightful

    When the northern ice caps melt then the cold water starts to cool the ocean, and there would be fewer hurricanes. That is what the environmentalists told us all during the 80's and 90's. How come we have had the terrible hurricanes this year and last... Why is it happening if the ice caps are melting? How about explaining Antarctica's glaciers getting larger? http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn1806

    They also said we created the hole in the ozone; however in 2004 the hole in the ozone was recorded as getting smaller by up to 20%. http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNew s/20041002/Antarctic_ozone041001?s_name=&no_ads=

    Take a few hours and read about how much crap volcanoes spew into the environment (e.g. sulfur dioxide). Do some Google searches on how many erupt each year... compare that with our fossil burning. The environmentalists have always been pretty disappointed with the results. Don't forget to include the ocean volcanoes when you do it.

    Still think we are causing global warning? Remember the Ice Age? Scientists are starting to dispute whether or not an asteroid caused it. Where were we with our wicked cars then? We all know that Solar activity had been written off as crap until recently when the numbers were just to obvious... the environmentalists account for it now by saying that ONLY 10-30% of the warning is being caused by the sun.

    I just wish you guys would preface all your "we are killing the earth" talk with, hey we really don't know, but we THINK "we are killing the earth". I certainly will ay I don't know for sure, but the evidence isn't cut and dry in your favor. The media is, but not the facts. Just some food for though. I know I'm going to get slammed for this post, the same way I do when I defend MS, but hey what can ya do?

    1. Re:help me out here... by Damer+Face · · Score: 2, Insightful

      > When the northern ice caps melt then the cold water starts to cool the ocean, > and there would be fewer hurricanes. That is what the environmentalists told
      > us all during the 80's and 90's. How come we have had the terrible hurricanes
      > this year and last...

      I don't recall any such thing being said, but then I did smoke alot of pot during the 90s. Like a proper hippy should.

      It's not as simple as the oceans cooling en masse. The melting of arctic ice affects the gulf stream, lessening the flow of warm water northwards. Thus tropical oceans are warmer causing more hurricanes.

      > Why is it happening if the ice caps are melting? How about explaining
      > Antarctica's glaciers getting larger?
      > http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn1806

      You really shouldn't confuse trends with single instances. That article itself asks whether this reversal is a trend or a blip: " The big question is if the change marks the end of the retreat, or just a short-lived reversal."

      Even if the antarctic ice sheet is expanding, you might have observed that the emphasis these days is not on global warming but climate change. And climate change will benefit nobody but speculators.

      > They also said we created the hole in the ozone; however in 2004 the hole in
      > the ozone was recorded as getting smaller by up to 20%.

      That's one year. See http://images.google.co.uk/images?q=graph+ozone+ho le+size for graphs of ozone hole trends.

      > Still think we are causing global warning? Remember the Ice Age?

      I don't think you appreciate the sensitivity of complex systems. Yeah global climate changes. But a giga tonnage of atmospheric CO2 released over a much shorter period of time than the system is used to, could cause all sorts of changes to the system.

      Spend a few hours studying chaotic systems and how minor changes in quasi periodic systems can cause a bifurcation into a completely new set of behaviours.

      The idea anyway, as people keep trying to point out, is that we take care to value our environment and our effect on it over plastic crapola, fat cars and not giving a toss about anything but the here and now.

      > I know I'm going to get slammed for this post, the same way I do when I defend
      > MS, but hey what can ya do?

      Not try to play devil's advocate.

    2. Re:help me out here... by Coryoth · · Score: 4, Interesting

      First of all, let's be clear: we are facing warming. Using proxy data from a variety of sources such as tree rings and ice cores it is possible to calculate some decent estimates of global temperatures over the last ten thousand years or so. There are obvious cycles, and a fair amount of fluctuation, but current temperatures represent a significant upswing - that is acceleration - in warming over the last century or so.

      Given that, the question of causes remains. Volvano activity certainly throws out a lot of C02, around one hundred and thirty to two hundred and thirty million metric tons a year. In comparison the US produces around five billion metric tonnes a year by itself convincingly dwarfing volcanic output. You also point the finger at solar activity, claiming it is ignored - it isn't. As you point out the IPCC includes it in their considerations and found, depending on the model used, that it accounted for effects of sixteen to thirty six percent that of those caused by CO2 and other greenhouse emissions. There are questions as to how well solar activity actually correlates with global temperature as well, so it's an open topic.

      On the other side of things: Our present understanding of physics is fairly unequivocal that CO2 and other gases can cause warming by trapping heat. Using ice cores and other methods to reconstruct historical CO2 levels we find that CO2 correlates extremely well with global temperature. We also find that CO2 levels have spiked beyond anything in recent history (recent history being the last four hundred thousand years) in just the last 150 years - again correlating extremely well with the recent acceleration in warming. Given the extremely good correlations and the clear reasons to believe in causation (which is to say, physics) it would seem that the burden of proof should fall to those who suggest human CO2 emissions are not having a significant impact on global temperatures.

      Are we killing the earth? I doubt it - I expect the earth will simply get warmer and keep on going. The question is: are we making life for ourselves much harder and much more costly, and is that preventable? There is strong evidence that human CO2 emissions are having a significant impact on climate, and that is certainly the cause over which we have the most direct influence. It makes sense to do something about it if we can.

      Jedidiah.

  26. Re:No change in sea level by bcwright · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Mostly true - the polar ice is for the most part floating in water, so by definition it displaces a volume of water equal to its weight. If it melts, its simply becomes water that will be equal in volume to the amount it displaced before it melted.

    There are two other effects to consider however - you alluded to the ice caps on Greenland and Antarctica, which would have a much greater effect on sea level if they should melt or even just flow into the ocean faster than they do now. With the polar ice cap gone, the Greenland ice cap would probably move faster and possibly even disintegrate.

    The other effect is that once you get above about 4 degrees C, water starts expanding again. So if the entire volume of ocean water becomes warmer on average, you may well get a rise in sea level even without the Greenland or Antarctic ice caps melting (the quibble is whether enough of the water will remain around 4 degrees C where it reaches minimum volume per unit mass - this is going to be difficult to compute because the effect of a melting polar ice cap on ocean currents is hard to predict accurately).

  27. How can this be? Bush wasn't even alive. by ccmay · · Score: 3, Funny
    this Florida land boom will get snuffed out by hurricanes just like the last one did way back in the 20's.

    This can't be right. George Bush wasn't even born then. How could there possibly have been hurricanes, or any other evil or dangerous thing?

    Oh! I see: Halliburton Co., founded 1919. That explains it.

    -ccm

    --
    Too much Law; not enough Order.
  28. can someone say CRAP! by seabasstin · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Wow more unsustainable "resources" show up everyday due to the destruction on other non-sustainable resources.
    Amazing, how stoopid humans are, we just deserve to be eradicated.

    --
    Content + Container; Content = Container; Content â Container... which is the question?
  29. Re:No change in sea level by bcwright · · Score: 2, Informative
    isn't that going to depend on how much of the floating ice is submerged?

    The short answer is, no it doesn't matter. If the ice is floating, that means that the part above the water level is supported by the ice below water level - and the volume of ice below the water level will displace a volume of water whose mass is equal to the total mass of the iceberg.

    I gave the main caveats in my other post on this thread - namely that this doesn't take into consideration any change in the volume of ocean water caused by changes in average water temperature (this can actually be significant when considered on a global scale), and how much of the ice is not floating - that is, the ice in the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps, for example. There is some other ice in the Arctic that isn't floating, but the vast majority of it is locked up in the Greenland ice cap.

  30. Your poor research has lead to false facts. by MrArmyAnt · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If you look at history, the melting and freezing of icecaps varys throughout history. The specs are skewed for everything. While i will admit we are doing damage, its also part of the natural course of our planet. Ya'll are to quickly to blame bush and polution for all the worlds aggricultural problems.

    I'll put it in a voice that fellow geeks can understand. The skewed facts of global warming is much like that of music downloads effecting cd sales. Harvard did a study on it, and found out the facts were taken over a span that just tap the boost in cd sales due to everyone switching over from cassette. Of course sales were booming. After people rebought old music and started buying new, it slowed down. This just happened to start at the beggining of p2p. If you ignore the boost cause here, I believe the article said music sales were only lowered by .5% due to illigal downloads. So statistics can be skewed to show whatever the heck you want them too. Look for trends and you see how green house gasses and temperature naturally fluxuate, and how one lags behind the other. I mean we could go way back and see how the abundance of CO2 and just water lead to oxygen and etc, which would be considered on todays terms to be 100% polution.

    So you are right, stupid humans. Stupid for not seeing the other side of things.

    1. Re:Your poor research has lead to false facts. by quacking+duck · · Score: 4, Interesting
      If you look at history, the melting and freezing of icecaps varys throughout history. The specs are skewed for everything.

      I agree the melting and re-freezing of ice caps are cyclical, and that stats always skewed, but you do realize that coastal communities are a lot less mobile than they were the last time the icecaps melted significantly? (And yes, I know that only the melting of one of the icecaps, the Antarctic, can actually affect sea levels). You can't easily abandon all the infrastructure in say New York and rebuild on higher ground, like a small tribe living in simple huts or cabins could.

      Just because events are historically cyclical, doesn't mean we're better able to weather them.

  31. Kyoto is useless... by Agarax · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If all the effort everyone is putting into Kyoto was instead directed into deploying current Feul Cell technology a good portion of the problem would go away.

    Instead we have whiney Euro politicians who want to appease their Green parties and stick it to the Americans, while avoiding fulfiling their obligations as much as humanly possible.

    International Treaties aren't worth the paper they are written on.

    --
    Remember folks, slashdot doesn't have a -1 "disagree" moderation!
    1. Re:Kyoto is useless... by bleaknik · · Score: 4, Informative

      A.C. you make an excellent point!

      I find humor in the root-level comment, but there is a deeper underlying issue with the Kyoto agreement that doesn't settle well with my view on it.

      Sure the U.S. pollutes a great deal; we also use something like 1/6 of all of the world's resources. But to my understanding (and I may be wrong), we put out a lot less pollution than China or India.

      I have family that has recently travelled to this part of the world, and they've had a hard time adjusting to the pollution that exists in that part of the world... Smog is everywhere I'm told.

      Yeah, the U.S. can do a lot to clean up its own act, but the rest of the world has a long way to go, too.

      Now, why should the U.S. foot the bill for the rest of the world?

      --
      Deja Vu
      n. 1. The sensation that you've read this very article before.
    2. Re:Kyoto is useless... by WookieinHeat · · Score: 2, Informative

      Oh, thats a great argument.... India is like three times your size and how much less money? And China, do you think China is going to do anything in the worlds interest? I think China's style is usually a little more Chinese centric. How can you say you are better then these people, but then compare yourself to them?
      But any ways you are wrong, most emissions, past and present, have been emmited by long established industrialized nations.
      Kyoto is not asking the U.S. to clean up the rest of the world. It is a treaty among mainly wealthier countries to risk taking a controlled blow to our economies and try to save what we have left of our dying planet.

    3. Re:Kyoto is useless... by LS · · Score: 5, Insightful

      But to my understanding (and I may be wrong), we put out a lot less pollution than China or India.

      Hmm, perhaps you knew you were wrong in the first place, but besided to say it anyway? Well, yes you are wrong. The US is by far the worst polluter (OVERALL, not Per Capita) in the world. The difference is that they don't pollute into the heart of their urban areas, so it's not visible to the average citizen. Some statistics to back this up:

      Carbon Dioxide Emissions
      Energy consumption

      The central argument of your whole post is destroyed when you discover that your basic premise is wrong. Everyone in the world agrees that there is man-made global warming. Only in the US has the propaganda been strong enough to still sustain a debate, no matter how senseless. EVEN BUSH finally admitted that humans are causing global warming. Perhaps you need to admit to yourself that it's possible you could be wrong, and that the attachment to your lifestyle and your nationalism is what makes you so apprehensive of seeing the truth.

      --
      There is a fine line between being a cultivated citizen and being someone else's crop. - A. J. Patrick Liszkie
    4. Re:Kyoto is useless... by ElectroBot · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The U.S. should foot the bill not for all the pollution, but for a major part of it because a large percentage of the products that are creating the pollution in China, Taiwan, etc. are sold to the U.S.. U.S. consumers aren't willing to produce these products in their own country because they would cost atleast twice as much and would pollute the U.S.. Hopefully the U.S. will lose it's scientific advantage (I believe it already has) and financial advantage (China is catching up) and will be forced to stop buying as many things from poorer countries and start creating their own.

      The U.S. as a country needs a collective kick in the ass to learn that they can't treat the rest of the world as their cheap labour and as if they were inferior. Otherwise sooner or later (probably within the next 10-25 years) they will be surpassed and then we'll see how the rest of the world feels like treating the U.S..

      BTW the retoric about the U.S. being "the leader of the free world" is pure bullshit. A leader of the Free World wouldn't invade/disrupt other countries/governments just because they don't like their political ideology or the price of a certain natural resource.

    5. Re:Kyoto is useless... by munch117 · · Score: 2, Informative
      Sure the U.S. pollutes a great deal; we also use something like 1/6 of all of the world's resources. But to my understanding (and I may be wrong), we put out a lot less pollution than China or India.

      Total carbon dioxide emission 2002 (million tonnes):

      • India: 1,017
      • China: 3,271
      • USA: 5,652

      Source: http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/environment/energy_im pact/seib2005ch5a.pdf

  32. Maybe Bill Hicks was on to something... by confield · · Score: 2, Funny

    Looks like it's a good time to start investing in property along the picturesque Arizona Bay.

  33. Re:Blame Canada by CastrTroy · · Score: 4, Interesting

    However, if you look at this map of possible routes for a northwest passage, they go right through canadian territory. Based on the three miles rule, the middle of lake superior would be international waters. It might be hard to get there without passing through canadian/american waters. And try passing off on your local game warden that you caught those fish in international waters. you'd have to navigate a pretty specific route to ensure that you didn't come within 3 km of any piece of canadian land while going through the northwest passage.

    --

    Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
  34. Republicans Hate the Earth by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 5, Insightful

    No, we've got Euro politicians and businesses who accepted Kyoto - without "ruining their economies". Now they're ahead of us in conservation and development of alternative energy. Although we Americans are whining (well, *you* are, anyway) while we drag everyone else down with our pollution.

    The worst American politician whiner was Bush, who whined "we'll give you something better than Kyoto" when he rejected it. Just another lie from Bush, who has given us nothing but tax rebates on SUVs that did nothing but further break the environment, and even break the American carmakers' future sales, driving them to the brink of bankruptcy.

    Just to complete your Bushwacko rhetoric, your "aren't worth the paper they're printed on" was Bush's comment about our Social Security "lockbox" that he looted, referring to the debt he owes us to finance his $3TRILLION annual budget, his $45TRILLION in committed debt. When, in fact, those Social Security debts, backed by US Treasury Bills, are by law the highest priority debt obligation of the US government. Bush is talking about defaulting on America's $TRILLIONS in debt, which would do for our country what he's been doing to the economy and the environment. And you're happily parroting his insane talking points. You really deserve the ecocaust you're courting. But I don't.

    --

    --
    make install -not war

    1. Re:Republicans Hate the Earth by Mutatis+Mutandis · · Score: 2, Insightful

      As Kyoto sets up an international trading system in "emission rights", the signatories are not obliged to reach hard emission targets: They can opt to pay cash instead. I would have assumed that this free-market approach to environmental policy has appeal to economic conservatives, but apparently they are too busy sticking their heads in the sand.

      The argument that Kyoto is ruinous for the economy makes very little sense. Apart from the damage that will be done by unchecked global warming, it makes both economic and political sense to reduce the consumption of such fuels. It would still make sense, even if there was no climate change connected to it at all. We are seeing the end of cheap oil supplies, and over the next decades the more energy-efficient (and self-sufficient) economies will have an important competitive advantage.

      As for the "failing euro", what failing euro? The currency that has taken a steep plunge in recent times is the US dollar. Admittedly less so because of any fundamental problems with the US economy, than because of the financial market distrust of the haemorrhaging US debt -- and the apparent total indifference of the debtor concerning his ability to finance (let alone repay) his debt to the rest of the world.

  35. Extinct animals or increased human prosperity by heroine · · Score: 2, Insightful

    It's commonly agreed that if Earth was warmer, humans would be better off while many animals would go extinct. Most of the argument now is about how creatures which can't evolve as fast as humans would suffer and less about how humans would suffer because everyone's settled that humans would just evolve out of any problems.

    Humans would have to give up their multi billion dollar coastal mansions and their riverboat gambling. Eskimos would have to get real jobs instead of living off welfare in the middle of nowhere. Antarctic scientists would have to shift to rainforest studies. There wouldn't be any more arctic polar bears.

    On the other side, we'd consume much less energy for heating. 1000 less marines would die every year extracting heating oil from terrorists. Russia and Canadia would become inhabitable.

  36. Good Point... by physicsphairy · · Score: 2, Insightful
    ... whether or not you intended to make it.

    The right way to judge a situation is not emotionally, or sentimentally, but through cost-benefit analysis. As an example, I'm afraid that environment==good :. kyoto == good is simply not a logical assertion. First of all, the environment is not intrinsically worthy... what makes a bunch of carbon atoms organized as molecular skeletons any more important than carbon atoms organized as a rock? You would be hard pressed to come up with a formula. Sentience on the other hand introduces a whole new prospect of morality and evaluations of worth that can exist without a reductionist deduction from particles and and particle properties. (You can argue that sentience does not make us any more important than other molecular aggregates, but then you are arguing the irrelevance of your own stake in the argument, so forgive me if I don't feel too bad about neglecting a critical analysis of that philosophy.)

    So in an analytic, rational way, we should look at what outcome, subsuming all its possible advantages and disadvantages, is to the greatest benefit of mankind. Global warming is not ipso facto a bad thing just because that's how people spin it when they talk about it. The earth used to be rather more tropical than it is now. Is it's moving back in that direction a bad thing? Was it's moving out of the ice age a bad thing? Could global warming stave off what would cyclically appear to be the inevitable of another earth iceage?

    I think most people are rather more reactionary than they should be about this topic. Global warming != the sky is falling, global warming == gradual climactic change we are faced with drawing up a reasonable response to. Rising sea levels over a hundred years is not a big deal. Coastal cities face infinitely more peril from sudden oceanic storms than waters that will take hundreds of years to reach them. We should certainly consider what the effect will be on ecosystems, what species will die off, and whether we want to accept this as another stage in earth's evolution (mass extinctions are nothing new) or if we want to stick our noses in and try to keep things the way we like it. But "The earth is doomed!" is not a terribly levelheaded approach. The sky is not falling, people. Climactic change is something that planets do. It is quite possible that a warmer earth may be a bad thing for us, and that we should invest to arrest its change. It is also possible that it is a very good thing, or that we simply do not have the capacity to affect it significantly at all. My recommendation is simply that we recognize (1) change != apocalypse (2) that doesn't mean taking action is not warranted, only that we should not be reactionary about it.

  37. It's not a liability, it's an opportunity. by skids · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If we took a leadership role, rather than being pulled by the ear, in developing renewables and conservation technology, then when China finally decides to face up to the music, because the enviro-riots they already have happening there every month get way out of control, we will have an export industry to sell them products to get their crap cleaned up. Might take a good chunk out of that huge trade deficit we owe them.

    Unfortunately doing so would require both business and political leaders with vision. Something we lack bigtime.

  38. North Polar icecap melt will by KwKSilver · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Have little effect on sea level. It is floating already. However, if the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps melt, there will be a serious increase in mean sea level. Greenland meltdown is estimated to yield about 7m (circa 23 feet) rise in sea level according to this. Should the Antarctic cap go as well, sea level would increase over 70m (about 230ft) according to this source. Seven meters puts me on the beach, 70+ meters puts me in the position of having to breath water, which I've yet to succeed at..

    --
    If you want your life to be different, live it differently.
  39. Your poor research has led to pollyannaism. by skids · · Score: 4, Interesting


    http://www.ia.ucsb.edu/pa/display.aspx?pkey=1352

    "The research described in this week's article demonstrates that over the last 1.3 million years, sea surface temperatures in the heart of the western tropical Pacific were controlled by the waxing and waning of the atmospheric greenhouse effect. The largest climate mode shift over this time interval, occurring ~950,000 years before the present (the mid-Pleistocene transition), has previously been attributed to changes in the pattern and frequency of ice sheets.

    The new research suggests instead that this shift is due to a change in the oscillation frequency of atmospheric carbon dioxide abundances, a hypothesis that can be directly tested by deep drilling on the Antarctic Ice Cap. If proved correct, this theory would suggest that relatively small, naturally occurring fluctuations in greenhouse gases are the master variable that has driven global climate change on time scales of ten thousand to one million years."

    This study of plankton cores combined with the recent study of bog hardwoods puts all these "sun output" and "natural cycle" arguments to bed. Good night. Usually it's a large catastrophic event releasing trapped methane from ocean depths that cause it. This time we did it all by our lonesome -- or is that loathsome -- selves.

  40. Flooded = gone by Dire+Bonobo · · Score: 4, Insightful

    >>> cruise destinations in the pacific get flooded
    >
    > So relax, the Pacific islands aren't going anywhere.

    But anything built on them or growing on them will be going away if/when they get flooded.

    The islands may indeed catch up to even something like a 5m rise in sea level, but even if it's in such a ridiculously short time as 100 years, that means (a) they cease to exist as islands for the near future, (b) they're scoured of all terrestrial life, and (c) all buildings and equipment on the islands are destroyed.

    In other words, the islands are gone, at least as far as current human use of them is concerned. Witness what 5m of flooding did to New Orleans in just 3 weeks.

    > Why do people discard rational thought when discussing the Kyoto treaty?

    A fine question indeed.

  41. It's the end of the world as we know it... by payote · · Score: 2, Funny

    ...and I feel fine. Global Warming is the new Capitalism. The irony is just so... ironic.

    --


    Never pet a burning dog.
  42. And Yet... by WindBourne · · Score: 2, Interesting

    All the glaciers through out the world are melting, except for the south pole. So who is right? a bunch of manipulated stats, or the very real data of 120 years of measured glaciers?

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  43. You are wrong!!! by bayankaran · · Score: 2, Informative

    Vehicular pollution from a city like Shanghai or Mumbai (the smog that made your travelling family uneasy) should not be equated with industrial pollution of a country like USA.

    The US contains 4% of the world's population but produces about 25% of all carbon dioxide emissions. By comparison, Britain emits 3% - about the same as India which has 15 times as many people.

    --
    Tat Tvam Asi
  44. Re:Blame Canada by Keebler71 · · Score: 4, Informative

    No offense, but you cleary have incomplete knowledge about international maritime law. What you are missing is a key piece of info known as innocent passage(UN Convention on Law of the Sea, Articles 17-28). This right allows ships to pass through territorial waters for the purpose of accessing international waters. It is even extended to warships, provided they take additional steps to appear more "neutral" (for instance, aircraft carriers may not launch/recover aircraft and submarines must be surfaced). This right is exercised on a daily basis through the straits of Hormuz, and Bosporus, amoung others.

    --
    "It takes considerable knowledge just to realize the extent of your own ignorance." - Thomas Sowell
  45. Try telling that to the residents of Tuvalu by choongiri · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Tuvalu has a plan to evacuate their entire population over the next 10 years. The country will cease to exist.
    Why do people discard rational thought when discussing the Kyoto treaty?
    You tell me.
  46. But Europeans are ruining their economies.... by tjstork · · Score: 2, Insightful

    What's the unemployment rate in Germany? The GDP growth of France? If Europe keeps going the way it is going, then, the US will surpass the EU in absolute GDP within 5 years.

    Besides, Kyoto is fatally flawed because it seeks to manage the atmosphere by controlling emissions, rather than by mandating or establishing a carbon sink. And its a consumer pays treaty, not a producer pays treaty, so the USA would have to foot the bill, when OPEC should be.

    --
    This is my sig.
    1. Re:But Europeans are ruining their economies.... by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 4, Interesting

      That's a conveniently odd mix of economic policies in your post. For one, Europe's economy hasn't changed for the worse by executing Kyoto - those problems already existed. If all the doomsaying about Kyoto in the US were accurate, following it with their already weak economy would have absolutely destroyed them. The lesson is that the US, with its stronger economy, is even better positioned to execute Kyoto - and even more of a producer of benefits, as we produce most of the damage that would be cut. Then compare your capitalist view of Europe's plight with your socialist view of who should pay to reduce Greenhouse accumulations. Not exactly consistent economically, but certainly consistent politically, protecting the US from accepting consequences of our pollution production.

      Kyoto has controls for both emissions and sinks. One reason Russia embraced it is that Russia does produce quite a lot of carbon fuels (they've got the world's largest reserves), but also has the largest area that can be reforested. They're in the carbon sink business. But the problem with your plan, which they'd favor, is that emphasizing the sink now more than the emissions would pass all that pollutiuon through the atmosphere. Like protecting polluters from liability as long as they clean it up later - or someone cleans it up later. Like exonerating a thief if they give back their loot when they're done using it.

      Kyoto isn't the best, or last, solution to Greenhouse pollution. But it's better than nothing. The US has embraced nothing as our solution. Which is unacceptable, especially as Bush lied about responding to Kyoto with "something better", which he has certainly not. So Kyoto isn't good enough - it gets us all started, and gives us something to learn from. It's a global industrial policy, with our civilization's survival hanging in the balance. We've already squandered a decade ignoring it here, where we can best execute it for maximum benefit, so we have that much more ground to make up. Many scientists warn that the tipping point, beyond which accommodations like Kyoto won't be enough, might pass within a decade. It's certainly far too late to make procrastinating arguments for doing nothing, that merely build our polluting industries. We've got to do something to save ourselves, while we argue about what better we can do with the time that Kyoto has bought. Europe is making us look stupid, though we're doing at least half of the work to do so.

      --

      --
      make install -not war

  47. Fear mongering by Chrichton by darekana · · Score: 3, Informative

    Since Chrichton isn't a scientist I don't think we should mix his opinion piece with the work of scientists...
    Here's a little light reading for perspective:
    http://info-pollution.com/mc.htm
    http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20050121/n ews_lz1e21benford.html
    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/ch ronicle/archive/2005/02/16/EDG49BAVBT1.DTL
    etc..

  48. Simply wonderful by sl4shd0rk · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Perhaps once we are done drilling the arctic full of holes we can concentrate on rendering the magnetic field useless as well. This will make life on Mars so much more familiar by the time we get there.

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    Join the Slashcott! Feb 10 thru Feb 17!
  49. Dammit.... by mormop · · Score: 2, Funny

    So you've finally worked it out, the truth being that your president is really Robobush !!!! (You'll have to imagine some dramatic chords). Yes it's true people of America, Robobush was made in secret by Jaque chirac and gerhard schroeder and deployed in place of the real GWB to cripple US science, pollute your air, get your schools teaching that the world was created by a spaghetti Monster, God , whatever, and piss your economy away on sending soldiers all over the world.

    The only clues were that sometimes it uses the right words but not necessarily in the right order, needs constant recharging vacations and upon being told of the 2nd Tower being hit crashed and did nothing for several minutes.

    Don't think that voting Democrat will help you as Robo- Hilary is having the final touches put on now.

    MuHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

    --
    Hmmmmmm..... Deep fried and look like Squirrel.