Sorting Through the Analog to Digital TV Mess
H_Fisher writes "CNN offers an article from Fortune magazine, giving a look at the problems surrounding the mandatory switch from analog to digital TV in the U.S., now slated for 2009. 'Managing this transition -- which will render about 70 million TV sets obsolete -- will be not be easy,' Marc Gunther writes. Among the problems: millions of American households without cable or satellite access will lose free access to news and weather along with the rest of their broadcast fare. Uncle Sam's solution? 'Yes, the very same federal government that is cutting back on college loans and food stamps will soon be issuing TV vouchers' - $1.5 billion to help U.S. households buy new digital TV equipment."
We bitch about and make light of all the delays going digital, and then we bitch when the government propose to help disadvantaged groups to maintain access to broadcast television, for whatever it's worth.
Let's not forget:
To be sure, the transition will facilitate a lot of progress for both the tech industry and the public sector. Once TV stations switch to digital transmission, they will return to the government a big chunk of the radio spectrum they currently use to transmit their analog channels.
Some of that spectrum will go to first responders -- police, fire and public safety officials -- so they can better communicate with one another. Breakdowns in emergency communication slowed the response to the September 11 terrorist attacks and Hurricane Katrina. New spectrum should help.
The rest of the spectrum will be auctioned off to the highest bidders -- probably tech companies. The sale of this valuable, scarce real estate is expected to bring in about $10 billion, maybe more. That will help reduce the federal budget deficit.
Better yet, when the spectrum is sold off, the companies that buy it will use it to develop new technology and services. Cheap, ubiquitous wireless broadband access is one possibility. Mobile TV or music services are others.
Scheduled for 2008, the auction will be the biggest spectrum sale since a 1994-95 spectrum auction. That sale helped boost the mobile phone industry, boosting the number of cell phone subscribers in the U.S. from 24 million to 200 million. It also helped drive down the cost of wireless minutes from an average of 47 cents a minute to 9 cents a minute, according to analysis from financial services firm Stifel Nicolaus.
"With the new auction, we will finally become a broadband nation," says Blair Levin, a Washington analyst with Stifel Nicolaus. "Google, Yahoo!, Microsoft, Intel, Dell -- these companies will all benefit. The more broadband pipes you have, the more applications will come along, the more often you will upgrade your device."
Indeed, Microsoft, Intel, Dell, and Cisco all joined a Washington lobbying effort called the High Tech DTV Coalition to push for digital television. Congress has been debating the issue for a decade, ever since the 1996 telecom bill gave digital spectrum to broadcasters, with the expectation that they would eventually give their analog spectrum back.
Seems like $1.5B to smooth the transition is a good deal for all involved.
Uncle Sam's solution? 'Yes, the very same federal government that is cutting back on college loans and food stamps will soon be issuing TV vouchers' - $1.5 billion to help U.S. households buy new digital TV equipment."
That's not fair. Surely protecting the priceless "inter-lickual propretty" is more important than little things like eating and education. Where are your priorities? Your sense of ethics? Your campaign contributions?
Uh, I'd rather go to college than watch TV. Why is it that I can get help buying a digital TV, but can't get help with tuition?
Zhrodague.net - I do projects and stuff too.
This is completely retarded. Why not put that money into creating cheap HD Antennas that output shitty analog to Pronged/Coax/Component so people can continue on as usual with a new antenna?
Does anyone out there have a set-top box to recieve over the air digital TV signals? A free one, not a pay service like Xoom or USDTV? I know that broadcasters as sending out digital signals but I don't know anyone that currently receives them.
Lasers Controlled Games!
'Yes, the very same federal government that is cutting back on college loans and food stamps will soon be issuing TV vouchers' - $1.5 billion to help U.S. households buy new digital TV equipment."
There is a reason why the Romans didn't talk about "Bread, Circus and Higher Education". As long as people are fat and happy, you can basically do whatever you want. Large business know this. The shills they put in government know this. And we know this too.
What are you eating? isItVeg?.
I realize this is in an 'analysis' piece, but I would be very surprised if it were actually true. Unless by cutting back, he means cutting back in the rate of growth. I'm not even going to attempt to Google this to find meaningful figures, for (I hope) obvious reasons. Anyone know where we can see the real increases/decreases for funding of such items?
Dark Reflection
Television is a necessary component for our government. $1.5 Billion is a good investment on two counts:
1) The billions the government can rake in in radio frequency auctions
2) Continuance of a medium to keep the unwashed masses under control.
There may be no "I" in team, but there's also no "F" in way.
Set top boxes cost from as little as £30 for terrestrial thus meaning those 70 million analogue TVs will be good for years to come.
Conor "You're not married,you haven't got a girlfriend and you've never seen Star Trek? Good Lord!" - Patrick Stewart
Add to that the landfill mess this looks to cause. That's a LOT of analog TVs that go to essentially worthless in very short order. We're already dealing with too much computer waste going into the landfills, and now the US is going to legislate putting a very large pile of still functioning and capable televisions in there all at once?
Brilliant. Special interest groups at work again in the legislature it would seem.
In,
The San Francisco Bay Area the digital transition will not work without a lot of upgrading on peoples part.
There are multiple transmission locations for TV in the Bay Area. This basically means that unless you have one of those monster antennas on your roof you will need an antenna pointed in the direction of the transmissions. Think multiple antennas. Multiple friends of mine have multiple antennas.
Not only that, but from all accounts of those already trying to receive digital transimissions, including myself, digital signals simply do not travel as far.
Or perhaps lets put it another way, the signal may travel just as far as a current day signal, but at the ranges quite a few people in the SF Bay Area are at from the transmission tower the signal is too weak to register within the digital TV receiver to be accurately display. Thus, either you get a perfect signal (or picture if you will) or you get nothing at all. And a lot more people, including myself, are getting nothing at all on my HDTV since I'm just far enough away that the signal seems to be too weak. And I live in the San Jose area, 30 or so miles from San Francisco as the bird flys.
Lastly, quite a few people in the east of SF live in quite mountainous conditions. Cannot pick up things there either.
Caution: Contents under pressure
Any entity that is to continue to exist must look out for its own survival.
In our current system of government, the greatest danger to the existing power structure is voting. A better educated populace is more likely to vote, while a TV watching populace is less likely to do so. So it is in the interests of the state to do what it can to discourage education beyond the minimum level necessary to support the state. Hence the emphasis on putting lots of dollars into extending the reach and influence of TV.
"Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
Can't one get news and weather from the radio, also for free (except you have to buy a receiver, but those are cheaper than TVs)?
If you are poor, elderly or uneducated TV should be the last thing you are worrying about.
This really gives some credit to the theory that the primary purpose of television is to pacify people and have them forget the real problems they face.
From tfa: the sale of the spectrum would generate approximately $10b in revenue. The net gain ($10b - $1.5b) would still be a revenue influx of $8.5b. This sounds like a (surprisingly) fair and mutually beneficial deal.
Regardless of your feeleings on television, it is important that everyone have free (or near free) access to news, state of the union addresses, etc.
The UK seems to have got the right idea. We can get digital terrestrial set-top boxes that plug into the TV, via a SCART lead (which carries, amongst other things RGB and Composite picture signals, and stereo audio), or on a few boxes via an analogue RF signal. That way virtually all existing TV sets can remain in use long after the switch-over takes place.
Only the really old sets don't have SCART sockets now, and although suitable boxes with RF Out exist they are more expensive.
-- Soruk
Why is Congress and the FCC even bothering with what is obviously not within their powers as delegated to them by the Constitution? The 9th and 10th Amendments apply here.
First, setting a regulatory standard for television broadcasts and forcing the industry to adhere to them is no longer necessary -- when TV was new, I can understand government enforcing a standard. With technology changing monthly, letting the market figure out what is needed is the best solution.
To me, this seems to be simple cronyism by the State. By creating these standards, they're creating a high cost to entry in the video broadcast market. The quicker we see broadband hit the homes, the more I realize that broadcast television is a complete waste of space. Deregulating ALL broadcast television and letting the frequencies be used by wireless broadcasters would make much more sense to me. Can you imagine how cheap and how fast wireless would be if we gave up all those megahertz?
Broadcasting isn't even important: people want video on demand (whether by cable, satellite, ThePirateBay, or PVR). Broadcasting isn't even efficient anymore: advertisers prefer knowing exact numbers rather than "we think we hit 700,000 with this show." In the long run, Congress and the FCC are applying ideas from 1970 to technology that could change 20 times in the next 20 years. Why restrict it?
I say it is time to just ignore these guys -- if big TV broadcasters want to continue to make a mess and force the little guy out of the business, let them. We'll counter it with rebroadcaster their garbage over BitTorrent and through the sharing of information as it was meant to be: free. Take the infinite supply of data versus the finite demand and you end up with a cost of zero.
Television announcer: Your cable television is experiencing difficulties. Please do not panic. Resist the temptation to read or talk to loved ones. Do not attempt sexual relations, as years of TV radiation have left your genitals withered and useless.
Developers: We can use your help.
Instead of the analog signals being cut at a certain date, I think a better approach would be to decrease the output power of the analog signal by, say, 20% a year over the course of 5 years. That way, people with existing sets won't be forced to suddenly buy new equipment. Those that don't upgrade will just get a gradually weaker signal. A weak signal will cause people to want to upgrade (or get a cheap digital -> analog converter box), where as a suddenly cut off signal will make for angry viewers.
Yeah, don't pick on television. As you can see from Tassleman's post, television helps us develop our intellect and debating skills. We all are more informed and useful citizens and members of society thanks to TV.
Waltz, nymph, for quick jigs vex Bud.
Definitely with you on the TV issue. I quit watching altogether about eight years ago and all the TV I've been unable to avoid in public places IS surreal. No wonder things are so interesting.
Life is a gift. And my Karma couldn't possibly be 'Positive'
$1.5 billion, divided by-- what-- around 280,000,000 USians? That's five bucks a head. If everyone takes an average of one (you KNOW some cheaters will take more than one), that's five bucks per.
If 10% of the population takes one, that's $50 per.
If 5% of the population takes one, that's $100 per.
If 1% of the population takes one, that's $500 per.
Ah, but this is naive math. That's $1.5 billion for the whole program. I'm sure at least half will get gobbled up by the elaborate system they set up to distribute these things. Retraining, printing forms, programming databases, printing vouchers, negotiating with retailers...
Any bets on how this $1.5 billion will actually filter down to the little guy?
With spending like this, exactly what are "conservatives" conserving?
Join the Army and get the GI Bill. There's only one minor downside...
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>I'd rather go to college than watch TV
Great, do that and see if it can help your reading skills.
They're not giving you help to buy a digital TV, they're giving $40 for a converter box so you can watch a crappy old analog TV with a nice digital signal. Would $40 really help your college fund?
The revolution will NOT be televised.
The analog-to-digital crisis--nothing that requires emergency expenditures of billions is not a crisis--points up TV's supremacy in American life. Those screens dare not go blank, even for a moment. It is from TV that Americans take proper instruction in the backstabbing rituals of the I Got Mine society ("reality TV"), learn to fear the system's guardians (cops and courtroom dramas), routinely covet what they can't afford (advertising) and get hallucinatory reassurance from square-jawed automatons ("news"). For the dwindling few who still watch such things, it's also where the marionette-in-chief periodically appears on glistening guide wires to rattle off his sermons.
If Congress didn't help lift the declining middle and growing Wal-Mart classes into the digital age, there'd be trouble. You can't run a nation into debt servitude, steal its liberties, mire it in futile (and feudal) distant wars, corrode its health and environment, leave it to drown in natural disasters, and force it to work longer hours all while presiding over historical levels of official corruption if you also hide the electronic teat. Baby, as every momma knows, wants milk.
The govt has no choice but to provide TV vouchers. There are just too many people out there (many who voted for the current administration) who would be mighty pissed if they couldn't watch TV anymore. Joe Sixpack, NASCAR Dads, and Soccer Moms must have their bread and circuses otherwise they might be inclined to revolt. I wish this were just a joke, but I guess the importance of entertainment just tells us something more about the nature of the human spirit.
To the making of books there is no end, so let's get started
I didn't see this rather obvious fact in a post yet, but people keep debating the government spending the 1.5 billion, so I guess I'll go ahead and state the obvious...
If you RTFA you will see that the government will be selling off the spectrum used by analog tv for an estimated 10 billion dollars... Hence, spending a small portion of that to facilitate the switch still leaves them with a 8.5 BILLION DOLLAR profit.
So can we please not have any more stupid posts about increased spending, when this deal is entirely designed to make money, not spend it. 8.5 billion will be made almost immediately, with a likely increase in other technologies boosting the economy in the long run as a direct effect.
On a side note, I'd love to see any conversation about this move to digital being driven, in part, by the ease of applying DRM to a digital signal.
Big ones, small ones, some as big as yer 'ead!
Give 'em a twist, a flick o' the wrist...
Shakespeare's name was spelled many different ways in Elizabethan times, even by himself.
http://shakespeareauthorship.com/name1.html
So any close spelling is really legitimate.
-- Too lazy to get a lower UID.
Or you can use a good tv torrent site and watch the programs without commercials the night they air (possible even before broadcast time if you live on the west coast). I really do not think that all the effort to switch to a new sort of television is worth it. The computer is becoming the wholistic entertainment center for the household: Music, games, movies, now television. Someday soon a tv that is just a tv will be like a cellphone that has no camera: extinct. So I think the government should not pony the $1.5B, since media-over-IP is the wave of the future anyhow.
Oh, and for any **AA lawyers who are reading this, I don't actually use tv torrents. I swear!
"Forget college, forget healthcare, we need radio bandwidth and tax cuts for the richest to help fight the terrorists."
Anyone else interested in seeing the person that actually modded this +5 Interesting? Lets not forget that In fact, the percentage of GDP spent on health is higher in the United States than in countries with government-provided health care and the government pays over 300 billion a year in grants towards college.
Heaven forbid we spent 1/200 of that on television. Crazy liberal whiners.
But put $1.5 billion more into scholarships and such and I can guarantee that more students will get a college education.
Good point... Consider if I rent out my house to someone who uses it to manufacture methamphetamine. I can be held liable for civil and criminal offenses for the impact that the lab has on the property and the community, and if I fail to report the activity.
Too little attention is paid to the illegal activity that goes on in subsidized housing in my community... Someone needs to be down there to say, "You own $5,000 worth of new electronics, move out and get an apartment." It's their money to spend... but the taxpayers are their landlord AND their source of support. We should be able to say when one get's cut off.
But resources are spread too thin... and sending people out to developments costs money.
I'm not saying that all subsidized housing is bad. I'm just saying that it shouldn't be abused... Like multi-million dollar bridges to an island of fifty people etc.
Army enlisted men. In the Army the officers salute as the privates head for the front. In the Air Force the enlisted men salute as the officers head for the front.
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Here in France, digital over-the-air TV was just launched last September. The analog signal is not supposed to be switched off before 2015 or so. Yet you can already buy a digital converter for euro59.90 or less in virtually every store. Those boxes just convert the digital signal received by your regular antenna into a signal readable by your regular TV.
We're using DVB-T here like most Restoftheworldians. AFAIK, North America adopted ATSC which uses a different modulation technique. Maybe that's the reason why simple converters don't do the work.
It would be nice to be sure of anything the way some people are of everything.
ANYTHING the Govt. gets involved with WILL be screwed up! This particular mess is being handled by the FCC and Congress. The FCC is probably the single most incompetant of all the federal agencies. I work in radio, and a 15 year old could manage spectrum better then these clowns do! Congress is not much better, since they've had a "FOR SALE" sign hanging at the front door of the Capitol Building since the Republicans took over in the mid '90's.
Ever bother to ask why they have to hold down two jobs to feed their family?
Why can't they get one good job?
Even if they have a "good" job, why are they still living check-to-check?
In this country(USA), all of these boil down to personal choices.
Yes, they chose to drop out of school.
Yes, they chose to have sex when they couldn't afford it.
Yes, they chose to buy fancy wheels for their otherwise beat up car rather than save for the future(any future, their own, their kids', any).
The list goes on and except for a very special few who were born with personal disadvantages that really do prevent them from competing with the average Joe, these are the reasons why the poor are poor. THE base reason why the poor are poor is because they have made poor choices.
I have seen those that were not poor become poor because of poor choices. The most common choice of these I have seen is choosing to consume cocaine. What a waste.
Yes, there are those that start poor because their parents are poor, but that is no excuse for staying poor. I have seen poor become not poor, myself and others, by doing nothing more than basically wising up.
I'm not marginalizing anyone's life. I'm just minding my own business. If more would do just that, there would be fewer poor. If you didn't get it, think about it for a moment.
There are a few simple rules to guide your choices in your life, listed in my particular order:
1) In all choices, consider your future.
The rest stem from the first.
2) Be literate, basic reading and arithmetic/algebraic skills are required.
3) Don't have kids until you can afford them.
That's about it. Yes, it is personal responsibility 101.
Good judgement comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgement.
- W. Wriston, former Citibank CEO
Where do people think that 10 billion comes from? It's a tax. A very sneaky one, but a tax nonetheless. You'll be paying extra for all the resulting new technology. Or, worse still, the technology won't arrive because the companies paid a ridiculous amount in the auction. We've seen something like that in the UK with mobile phone spectrum. See the first paragraph of this editorial.
So, please, don't talk about the switchover as if it produces money. It doesn't, it's just a tax that people aren't smart enough to complain about.
The net gain ($10b - $1.5b) would still be a revenue influx of $8.5b. This sounds like a (surprisingly) fair and mutually beneficial deal.
It does indeed, until you read that the government is selling off spectrum that belongs to the American public to commercial interests. The first comprehensive legislation on spectrum use and broadcasting was the Radio Act of 1927, which established the Federal Radio Commission, precursor to today's FCC. The Radio Act instructed the FRC to favor those stations which served the "public interest, convenience, or necessity," but the pro-commercial administration of the FRC soon began cracking down on precisely those sorts of stations, run by non-profit groups and universities across the country. The FRC constantly reallocated these stations' spectrum, and finally came to the compromise, if you can call it that, of "allowing" many public interest stations to share a minute portion of the overall spectrum, and licensed the rest of it to commercial networks like NBC and CBS. (In 1927, NBC and CBS hardly existed; in 1931, their stations accounted for 70% of the broadcast power in the U.S.)
This step was the first of many in severely hindering those who wanted to use the electromagnetic spectrum to serve the public interest. Anyone flipping through cable channels today knows all too well who won that battle, and the recent Telecommunications Act of 1996 was more or less the last nail in the coffin -- its deregulatory clauses allowed for the creation of what could perhaps be called a media cartel, as the limits on the number of broadcasting stations one company could own were all but eliminated. Smaller companies merged together and about half of the nation's broadcasting stations changed hands as media giants snapped up as many stations as they could lay their hands on. See the case of Clear Channel Communications, which now owns roughly 1200 stations across the country.
Where am I going with all this? If anything, I'd like to see parts of that reclaimed spectrum reserved for public broadcasting, and a significant portion of profit gained from the sale of the rest of the spectrum to private interests allocated to fund public broadcasting. I simply don't think it's justified to use that money for anything else.
For more information on the political history of broadcasting in the U.S., see Robert W. McChesney's Rich Media, Poor Democracy: Communication Politics in Dubious Times, ISBN 1-56584-634-6.
1) Congress has budgeted $1.5 billion to provide vouchers for owners of outdated TVs to purchase digital-to-analog converters. Each owner will be entitled to two vouchers worth $40 apiece. Do the math: 70 million outmoded TVs x $80 in vouchers = $5.6 BILLION. Congress' proposed budget is woefully inadequate in comparison to its commitments.
2) Why in the world is the US government subsidizing television reception for outdated TVs in the first place? Couldn't they just announce the cut-off date and then say "sorry, the rest of you were warned"? Those who can afford to subscribe to cable/satellite will continue to do so, and those who can't will go to places where they can watch free public screenings, or spend more time reading. Television access is a luxury, not a right; why has it become one? FTA, Consumer groups say this is only fair because the government is essentially reducing the value of people's property. Well, they don't make media for my 8-track machine anymore -- where's my money???
3) FTA, Sets hooked up to cable or satellite services should work fine no matter what. This means that coax input will remain constant, and this means that we've had digital-to-analog TV converters for YEARS. They're commonly called VCRs; actual tape machines or digital ones will work, so long as it has coax in and out, and RCA out. To convert the signal, the recording part of the machine doesn't even have to operate properly. VCRs that eat tapes but still have working connections are easy to find second-hand at the Salvation Army and garage sales, usually for $5 or less. (This is what I did when I was in college; I hooked up a VHS VCR that ate tapes to a Commodore 64 monior, and I basically had a television set with tuner. All for less than $15. And this was "all the way back" in 2000.) New machines can cost as little as $50 for a VHS VCR and $100 for a DVD recorder. So to think that new analog-to-digital converters, without tape or DVD writing mechanisms, should be $40 to $80 apiece is ludicrous.
4) FTA, People are supposed to apply for the vouchers during a three-month window in 2008, and use them within three months. But there probably won't be enough vouchers to go around... You think? When the allocated budget is about a quarter of what it should be? Say it ain't so! And the logistics surrounding such a short turn-around time are horrendous.
6) For 20 million people who have been watching TV over radio spectrum, the digital-to-analog converters are going to be rather useless. Why? Because one of the reasons that they were watching free TV is because they couldn't afford to pay for cable/satellite in the first place! Why does the government figure that these people can suddenly afford to have cable/satellite installed and pay the monthly fees? This is a modern-day rendition of "let them eat cake!"
6) You may remember a previous Slasdot post about the Digital Content Security Act, which has legislators introducing a "measure [that] will outlaw the manufacture or sale of electronic devices that convert analog video signals into digital video signals, effective one year from its enactment..." Digital-to-analog and analog-to-digital devices are easily reversable, especially when you're talking coax to RCA. So once the MPAA has all television converted to digital, they want to outlaw the hardware that the government plans to subsidize so that people can watch their content? Am I the only one who sees a flaw with this?
Let's be clear about who is doing what to whom, shall we?
Television is not provided gratis to the viewing public out of the generosity of some media mogul's heart (or space formerly therefore).
Television is a MEANS of delivering viewer eyeballs to advertiser content. They 'bait' you with 24 minutes of programming per half hour, and then hope you don't notice that they 'switch' to advertising for at least 6 minutes. (Admittedly, lately they've gotten more subtle about the switch part by using product placement, and cheapened the bait with 'Reality' TV, but the principle's the same.)
Hi-def will be a way for these companies to put out more attractive bait. (OK, actually what happened was that the digital compression algorithms have allowed them to squeeze more analog signals into the allowed bandwidth, more like dropping LOTS of shitty-baited hooks in the water instead of something particularly attractive. Gov't is mandating that they use only the 'pretty bait'.)
So could someone explain to me why the US gov't is subsidising a privately owned and MASSIVELY profit-generating product delivery system?
-Styopa
The infrastructure is not up to the task of delivering a digital HDTV signal to every home in America. The cable companies *think* they can handle the load, but they are way wrong.
There are old buildings with old wires, and as the signal strength decreases before it gets to the TV set (or converter box), the loss of signal will create all kinds of glitches.
Bad taps in lock boxes in basements can cause signal breakup, loss of signal entirely, and all manner of artifacting, including, but not limited to extreme pixelation of the image and audio degradation to the point of inaudibility.
In short; the cable companies could find themselves having to re-wire a large percentage of inner-urban areas where the loss of TV entirely for large percentages of the population could even lead to riots.
Worst is that they are in for a surprise when it still won't work because of other equipment failures between their origination point and the destination box.
The cable companies, used to short-changing their customer base and providing the lowest service at the higest prices, will suddenly find itself in the unenviable position of actually having to do WORK to make it all happen. And they aren't going to want to pay for it, having already spent their government subsidies on yachts for the upper executives.
In short, they aren't ready to handle even their existing customer base.
If telephones are outlawed, then only outlaws will have telephones.
That means duplication or replacement of most existing public safety radio equipment. Since the departments barely have the budgets to maintain the existing systems, where will the money come from to buy, install, and maintain all the new ones? Interoperability was a goal even before 9/11. It still hasn't happened because nobody is willing to pay for it. New spectrum won't help without the equipment to use it.
The rest of the spectrum will be auctioned off to the highest bidders -- probably tech companies. The sale of this valuable, scarce real estate is expected to bring in about $10 billion, maybe more. That will help reduce the federal budget deficit...Scheduled for 2008, the auction will be the biggest spectrum sale since a 1994-95 spectrum auction. That sale helped boost the mobile phone industry, boosting the number of cell phone subscribers in the U.S. from 24 million to 200 million. It also helped drive down the cost of wireless minutes from an average of 47 cents a minute to 9 cents a minute, according to analysis from financial services firm Stifel Nicolaus.
First, recall the huge expenditures needed for new public safety radio equipment. That alone is likely to consume all the auction revenue.
Second, recall the telcom bust that followed the '94-'95 land grab. The survivors remember the financial bloodbath that resulted from that bidding war, and are unlikely to spend so profligately again. The principle of supply and demand strongly suggests that declining air-time prices are symptoms of excess capacity. Why would the telcoms pay billions for more, when they need huge discounts to sell what they already have?