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Environmentalists Coming Around to Nuclear Power?

Heywood J. Blaume writes "In a Washington Post editorial Patrick Moore, a founder of Greenpeace, now says he was wrong about opposing nuclear power 30 years ago. In the article he addresses common myths about nuclear power, and puts forth the position that nuclear power is the only feasible, affordable power source that can solve today's growing environmental and energy policy issues. From the article: 'Thirty years on, my views have changed, and the rest of the environmental movement needs to update its views, too, because nuclear energy may just be the energy source that can save our planet from another possible disaster: catastrophic climate change.'"

155 of 1,092 comments (clear)

  1. It's about time by DavidinAla · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The logic behind using safe forms of nuclear power has been clear for a long, long time. It's nice to see some greens finally start accepting what has been obvious to some of us for 30 or 40 years. Now I'm curious how long it will be before the same people start realizing that they have been duped about global warming -- by the same people who duped us about the "coming Ice Age" and hundreds of millions of people supposedly dying of hunger from overpopulation in the '70s. The same crackpots who have been feeding us false predictions are still being given credibility today. Why people such as Lester Brown and Paul Erlich are given any credibility is beyond logic.

    David

    1. Re:It's about time by ndansmith · · Score: 2, Informative

      If anyone wants a good read about the environmental movement, check out Paul Driessen's Eco-Imperialism . It changed my mind. He lays out how environmental movements are holding back development in the third world (keeping poor people's living standards low) with their misguided policies.

    2. Re:It's about time by dynamo52 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      While I disagree with your comments on global warming, I also think that it is about ime environmentalists came around to nuclear energy. If managed properly, nuclear can greatly alleviate our energy problems. Waste can be stored in a safe and isolated location and modern plants have almost no chance of meltdowns.

      The environmental movement today has become a front for anti-corporate activists.

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    3. Re:It's about time by good+soldier+svejk · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Driessen is a paid oil industry lobbyist who professionally promotes junk science through industry funded think tanks

      "Driessen has also written about the role that think tanks can play in helping corporations achieve their objectives. Such outlets "can provide research, present credible independent voices on a host of issues, indirectly influence opinion and political leaders, and promote responsible social and economic agendas," he advised companies in a 2001 essay published in Capital PR News. "They have extensive networks among scholars, academics, scientists, journalists, community leaders and politicians.... You will be amazed at how much they do with so little."

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    4. Re:It's about time by the+argonaut · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Does he also lay out how multi-national corporations and their government cronies are poisoning the environment in third world countries, exploiting their labor and natural resources, and keeping their living standards low with their misguided policies? Oh wait, he probably wouldn't mention that, seeing as how he's a tool for people like this. I'm sorry your mind was so malleable that it could be changed by the rantings of this Randian nut job.

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    5. Re:It's about time by Stephen+Samuel · · Score: 2, Insightful
      It's nice to see some greens finally start accepting what has been obvious to some of us for 30 or 40 years.

      "Some greens" have always seen Nuclear power as a good idea (check my domain name). There's been a low-level dispute about whether or not the upsides of nuclear power exceed it's downsides.

      As the disasterous implications of global warming have loomed ever larger, the downsides of nuclear power have started to loose their bite.

      The 'badness' of Nuclear power has always been one of preference (or lack thereof), that has gotten, for some, to the point of dogma. It started as a 'mom and apple pie' hysteric fear -- in the times of fallout and bomb shelters and relatively fresh pictures of the horrors of Hiroshima and Nagaski, where "nuclear" was most often coupled with "weapons". It was all to easy to mount a convincing attack on the problems of nuclear power, since the problems were really there, and the hysteric fear of atomic weapons was enough to flip what should have been a practical argument into "oooh, nukes! keep them away from me".

      There was also the unspoken background that many US power plants were actually breeder nuclear reactors that were used as much to help manufacture weaponry as to generate power (( and weren't necessarily all to good at the latter, from some conversations that I've had with people who lived near them )).
      The downsides of nuclear power have not gone away... it's just starting to look more and more like the lesser of two evils.

      summary: anti-nuke was always a policy decision, not a scientific theory.

      Global warming, on the other hand is a scientific theory that has been slowly worked it's way from 'interesting flake idea' to 'pretty much a proven fact' over the space of about 30+ years. There is roughly zero probability of a "Perry Mason Moment(tm)" where 10,000 scientists bread down on the stand and admit that it was all just an elaborate hoax.

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    6. Re:It's about time by dantheman82 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Sorry, your circumstantial ad hominem argument against Driessen should have never received any mod points. But, if Mother Jones (who undoubtedly is seen by the world as an authoritative source) said so, then it must be true. Well, I don't want to be dismissive of them either, but see for yourself as to their bias (or lack thereof) and journalistic credentials...as that is in fact substantial grounds for dismissing their rhetoric.

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    7. Re:It's about time by An+Onerous+Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Misguided policies? Where to begin.

      * American farm subsidies that keep millions unemployed.
      * A laundry list of other subsidies and tariffs that lock out foreign goods.
      * Organizations like the IMF that tie development loans to absurd and punitive measures, forcing developing countries to abandon effective poverty prevention programs in the name of "smaller government", while making stupid loans that may as well be sent straight to the Caymans.
      * Only supporting abstinence-only AIDS prevention.
      * Invading countries that don't pose any threat to us.

      Frankly, I don't see how Greenpeace--with a global budget of about $150M a year--can do nearly as much damage as any one of dozens of multinational corporations, much less the federal government.

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  2. Its pronounced nukular. by Cowclops · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I've always said that nuclear is the way to go... while there are implications in the extreme long term as far as what you do with the wastes, there are no blaring short term problems like running out of coal and oil or spewing waste directly into the air.

    1. Re:Its pronounced nukular. by Zerbs · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the uranium ore radioactive to begin with when it's dug out of the ground? The difference is it has been concentrated for use as nuclear fuel in the reactor. Why can't they find a way to re-dilute the end products?

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    2. Re:Its pronounced nukular. by Nef · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Those parts that are up to snuff (e.g. negligible hardening and change in NDT) should be refurbed/reused. Those that are not could be melted down, including a process to remove activated isotopes in the process, and re-used to create new parts!

  3. It took 30 years... by C-Diddy · · Score: 2, Interesting

    ...for this "progressive" voice to come around to nuclear power. Heck, if it's good enough for socialist France, why not here in the US?

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  4. With the technology of 30 years ago... by rthille · · Score: 2, Insightful

    He was probably right to oppose nuclear power. Certainly we have better technology today to make safer nuclear power. Again, nuclear power will never be completely safe, but neither is wind, hydro, nor coal. Conservation, both thru individual action and thru technology are probably the safest 'forms of power', but they would never be enough.
    It is time to bring nuclear power back into the discourse about our energy needs, but I'm not sure it's time to start building plants as fast as we can either...

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    1. Re:With the technology of 30 years ago... by TemporalBeing · · Score: 3, Insightful
      He was probably right to oppose nuclear power. Certainly we have better technology today to make safer nuclear power. Again, nuclear power will never be completely safe, but neither is wind, hydro, nor coal. Conservation, both thru individual action and thru technology are probably the safest 'forms of power', but they would never be enough.
      Actually, if you RTFA'd you'd notice that he scolds himself for being against nuclear power 30 years ago and cites how the safety aspects of the US nuclear power facilities - only major incident in US nuclear power history is PA's Three-Mile Island, which - as he states was a success, not a failure, since it completely contained the incident as it was designed to do.

      Why does he scold himself? Because, as he says in the article, the techology could be a lot further along if it was allowed to develop instead of being put on the side-burner for nearly 30 years where it got little development, at least in the US markets.

      From the article, I'm sure he'd agree that we need to get underway with starting to build new nuclear plants now.
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  5. Environmentalists /= anti-nuke by djh101010 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I've been an environmentalist all my life; planted close to 10,000 trees, maintain habitat for the critters, that sort of thing. No small expense or effort. I consider myself to be more of an environmentalist than some bozo with a "save the (whatever)" pin that only gets angry about things and doesn't actually do anything to improve the situation.

    That said, I'm puzzled at the attitude the submitter apparently has, in that he seems to be describing environmentalists, and pro-nuke-power people, as two separate groups. To me, nuke is an obvious choice. If you need no other explaination, see how the anti-nuke people resort to blatant lies and unrealistic comparisons in order to get people to _feel_ that it's bad. The pro-nuke side goes with science so people _think_ about, and _understand_ the issues.

    My point, I guess, is that this isn't surprising or new, some guy who left Greenpeace when it diverted from his POV is just saying what so many other environmentalists have known for decades. I'm not sure this is news, other than that whoever this guy is, is saying it.

    1. Re:Environmentalists /= anti-nuke by ScentCone · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I'm not sure this is news, other than that whoever this guy is, is saying it.

      The real news, if you RTFA, is that his former green bretheren still treat him like a pariah for... being rational.

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    2. Re:Environmentalists /= anti-nuke by bnenning · · Score: 4, Insightful

      To me, nuke is an obvious choice.

      That's because you're a rational environmentalist who wants to actually protect the environment, as opposed to the utopians who want to Change the World.

      --
      How to solve most of our problems: 1.Lots of nuclear plants. 2.Cure aging.
    3. Re:Environmentalists /= anti-nuke by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful
      There are more trees now in North America than there were when Columbus landed in 1492. (source: Cato institute)

      That's great, as long as you assume that a 10-year-old scraggly pine tree growing on tree farm waiting to be turned into junk mail is just as good as a 200-year-old chestnut or oak tree.

    4. Re:Environmentalists /= anti-nuke by Grishnakh · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Exactly. Not only that, but old-growth forest is being cut down all over the world (like the Amazon rainforest), so any extra trees here in North America can only help make up for that loss.

    5. Re:Environmentalists /= anti-nuke by njh · · Score: 2, Insightful

      So you have no issues with Iran building new reactors? I'm personally quite puzzled to hear in the news that Australia is looking to sell Uranium to India and China, and practically in the same breath decrying Iran's extension of their nuclear fuel processing plant.

      Similarly people point out that U235 is not up to our predicted unmodified energy use (estimates of less than 70 years are commonly touted), to which nuclear advocates then suggest fast breeders - which produce easily purified plutonium, easily manufactured into bombs - or searching for more dilute sources of U235 requiring vast mining operations (and nobody mentions the oil required to power the diggers) with their attendant environmental disruption.

      Nor have we solved the waste storage problem - nuclear power produces large amounts of low grade waste (such as contaminated overalls) which we just keep shuffling around. Nuclear energy currently contributes somewhere around 10% of the total world energy, so the waste problem will get 10 times worse if we use nuclear wholesale. Considering the current handling of things like electronics waste I have no confidence that the situation will improve.

      Considering that half or more of domestic energy use is to make low grade thermal energy (space heating and DHW), and that people have demonstrated hundreds of practical and effective solar heating systems (for example, the Barra design in italy, sunspace and solar closet designs, clear attic collectors with radiant ceiling storage), I wonder why a rational environmentalist isn't promoting those instead? One reason perhaps is that solar energy is constantly hijacked by PV enthusiasts who go off talking about PV arrays in the desert and other giant projects. These cost lots of money, are dubious economically and move the problem out into some location requiring massive infrastructure investment.

      Putting energy in a centralised location automatically makes it a target for terrorist and economic attack. Most of the US's foreign policy behaviour in the last 6 years is directly linked to the fear of loss of resources, particularly oil, but energy in general. So far bombing and threatening other countries with energy resources has worked to a degree, but it is burning international good will instead. Switching from one foreign energy source to another seems rather foolish in this light.

      If we need most energy as low grade heat, why not generate that heat locally using the one resource available everywhere: the sun. The remainder might be well served by existing renewable technologies.

    6. Re:Environmentalists /= anti-nuke by Sebastopol · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You're only looking at the immediate reactionary argument. I felt this way too a long time ago.

      The question should not be: "Who cares about a redwood forest", the question should be: when is enough, enough?

      When there ARE no forests?

      When all of the water in undrinkable due to pollution?

      When there IS no water? (Just ask the SoCal farmers fucked by Mulholland when he diverted the watershed to LA; or the sprawling McMansion suburbs in NorCal that are running out of water).

      Where do you personally draw then line? When there are no trees left, every inch of land is covered with beige houses, and every human being has exactly 1 square yard of space left? Obviously not: but you must ask yourself: when is enough enough?

      Then you will see that the Endangered Species Act is far more powerful than it appears on the surface. Each little insignificant critter on there is nothing more than a proxy, or a negotiable "line" that represents the "enough" I am referring to above.

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    7. Re:Environmentalists /= anti-nuke by RzUpAnmsCwrds · · Score: 4, Insightful

      FYI, I understand that there's a possibilty that your post is meant as satire, but if it is, it's not particularly good satire. For the sake of argument, I'm going to assume that you are being serious.

      In short, if there isn't a direct payoff to me, then fuck it.

      That sort of attiude is why we have corporations who cut R&D to increase the short term balance, why consumer debt is at an all-time high, and why the Feds keep spending us deeper and deeper into debt.

      It's not just irresponsible to have a "me and now" attidue, it's also downright stupid. If everyone wants to help themselves by screwing everyone else over, then we end up with a society which simply doesn't work.

      Just like you can't argue the Savior's sacrifice with an atheist, you can't use extinction to argue with us; we just don't care.

      Funny, because we find it interesting that you still choose to believe without hard evidence - and that's not something that I'm ashamed to admit.

      That and a 20% consumer tax

      There are good arguments for a VAT, but the simple fact is that sales tax generally disproportinately affects the poor. Wealthy individuals spend a much smaller percentage of their income, which means that, percentage wise, they actually pay less tax under a purely VAT system than those who have less income.

      Of course, if you're arguing for a VAT in addition to the current tax system, that's an entirely different matter. Adding money to the federal budget won't really stop our financial problems - it is runaway spending - particularly on the military (17.2%), Medicare/Medicaid (23.6%), and interest on the debt (8.10%) - that is driving our government further into debt.

      Being smart about environmentalism means that you can still eat your tuna (without killing dolphins), you can still have your deck (from a well-managed forest), you can still eat steak (without antibiotic abuse), and drive your car/SUV (hybrid, EV, hydrogen, or biofuel powered).

      Technology has the ability to solve many of our environmental problems without changing our quality of life - we just have to care enough to use it. Unfortunately, it appears that you don't.

    8. Re:Environmentalists /= anti-nuke by djh101010 · · Score: 2, Informative

      Chernobyl

      You _do_ know that the USA'n design has no resemblance whatsoever to the open-pile primitive disaster-waiting-to-happen that Chernobyl was, right? If you don't, please educate yourself before you make your decision firm in your own mind. It's an entirely different thing; comparing today's technology to their primitive one is like comparing today's top of the line desktop PCs to the ENIAC.

  6. Obvious Simpsons quote by Opportunist · · Score: 2, Funny

    Excellent...

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  7. He came around a long time ago by moonbender · · Score: 4, Informative

    This isn't a new thing, as the article (summary) implies. Moore has had this stance for a while now. Here's a 2004 Wired article on this "Eco-Traitor."

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  8. Shill! by rjung2k · · Score: 5, Informative

    I'd be more impressed if Moore would admit that he's now serving as a consultant for the mining, logging, and energy industries.

    Hell, I'd settle for the Washington Post admitting that they're trying to pull one over its readership.

    1. Re:Shill! by Qwavel · · Score: 2, Insightful


      That would be fine, but then you can't go and write an opinion piece in the paper without full disclosure. Billing him as 'co-founder of greenpeace' is totally misleading.

      The idea that people don't know what is wrong with this is very depressing.

    2. Re:Shill! by 2short · · Score: 4, Insightful

      What he's saying about nuclear power is not particularly notable.

      The fact that a "Founder of Greenpeace" is saying it is what is news-worthy. Who he (supposedly) is is the story. So it's perfectly reasonable to point out that "Founder" is a stretch, and "longtime paid lobbyist for any well-heeled industry with eco-image problems that will cut him a check" is a much more relevant description of who he is.

      What he is actually saying about nuclear power is not terribly worth discussing; it's the nuke-industry party line he's paid to spout. It's as irrationally pro-nuclear as the actual founders of Greenpeace are anti-nuclear. Neither makes a good starting point for discussion.

  9. The amount of uranium by Peter+Cooper · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I seem to recall that something similar to this was brought up a few months ago here at Slashdot and several seemingly very intelligent posters made citations and pointed out that the amount of uranium we have available that can be processed will last for only a very limited timespan and that nuclear perhaps isn't the best way to go.

    Of course, there's always the "we'll run out of oil by 1995" theories running around, but the arguments seemed quite compelling. I can't find them again now, but what's the real deal with this? If the whole world went nuclear, would we all be desperate for sources of uranium in fifty years' time?

    1. Re:The amount of uranium by DirePickle · · Score: 5, Informative
      I don't have the figures or a link on me at the moment, but a little googling should lead the way. I had heard the same thing a number of times, and believed it. But I found some info (on wikipedia, maybe. Not that that should be a sole source) that said that although the amount of cheap and easy nuclear fuel could be expended in fifty years, it's possible to use breeder reactors and the more plentiful Uranium-238 and such to give us sufficient nuclear fuel for another few thousand years.

      Went ahead and hunted for the link:

      Wikipedia: Nuclear Power

      I am not a nuclear physicist, so it could be full of crap, but wiki's science info is generally pretty sound.

    2. Re:The amount of uranium by partofthething · · Score: 2, Interesting

      While it is true that at the supply of cheap fissile Uranium-235 (the fuel for conventional nuclear reactors) could possibly run out within 50-100 years, options such as fast breeder reactors and thorium-based fuel cycles have the capability to continue fueling conventional reactors for hundreds of years. The advanced reactors can run on abundant resources while producing excess fissile material. They actually produce more fuel than they burn. They also can process spent fuel (nuclear waste), converting most of it into usable fuel and the rest of it to a form that will only be of concern for 500 years as opposed to 100s of thousands. The advanced reactors could produce enough electricity using only the accumulated nuclear waste in the USA to power the whole country for at least 200 years. That's something worth looking into.

      Believe it or not, but George Bush has already proposed and funded the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP), which utilizes advanced reactors to ensure a supply of nuclear fuel well into the future. Development of the advanced reactors has been underway since the 60s but now it is really picking up again. In my Nuclear Engineering department at The University of Michigan, for one, there are a group of professors and graduate students devoting lots of time to designing fuel cycles and looking at safety concerns of sodium-cooled fast-reactors, one particular option for the advanced reactors.

      The advanced concepts will not be ready to be deployed for at least 15 years at best. So keep up the good words for nuclear power and we'll have an environmentally safe energy source. For more information on what the nuclear community is looking into, check out the generation 4 roadmap at: http://gif.inel.gov/roadmap/

    3. Re:The amount of uranium by srw · · Score: 4, Informative

      Disclaimer: I own stock in the world's largest uranium mining company.

      It has been stated that the world will run out of uranium in 50 years, or variations thereof. The problem with this statement is you have to ignore a lot of facts to come up with it. This statement assumes that the uranium deposits currently being mined are all that there is. The fact is, we're currently sitting on at least 50 years worth, and there is no real reason to start mining new deposits at this time. As these deposits get depleted, and as (if) the market price of uranium rises, more exploration will be done, and more deposits will be mined. If the price rises high enough, it becomes feasable to "mine" the uranium dissolved in the oceans. If it rises even higher, it becomes feasable to produce it in breeder reactors. In short, the world is _not_ running out of uranium. Second, the "50 year" statement assumes that we will not improve our reactor technology. In north america, we're still running 30+ year old reactors that only remove 5% of the available energy in the uranium. The "waste" that comes out of these reactors can be processed and put through again, or can be used in newer designs to extract more energy from the same uranium. So, ignoring the idea of finding new reserves to mine, if we improve our efficiency to even 50%, we'll now have 500 years worth. (of course, now _I'm_ ignoring the inevitable fact that we will consume more than our current rate over the next 500 years.)

  10. Amazing by AKAImBatman · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Wow. I mean... just... wow. I knew that the anti-nuclear movement had long been losing steam, but to get a Greenpeace founder on board? Wow.

    Perhaps even more amazing is that he really does understand the pros and cons. His article spells out in plain language that Nuclear power is not dangerous, and that the chance for nuclear weapons is a small risk to take to reduce the amount of pollution coming from coal plants. To read this, you'd think he was a regular on NuclearSpace.com!

    Some excellent sound-bites: ... Nuclear energy is the only large-scale, cost-effective energy source that can reduce these emissions while continuing to satisfy a growing demand for power ... ... What nobody noticed [...] was that Three Mile Island was in fact a success story: The concrete containment structure did [...] prevent radiation from escaping into the environment ...

    ... Wind and solar power have their place, but because they are intermittent and unpredictable they simply can't replace big baseload plants such as coal, nuclear and hydroelectric ...

    ... Within 40 years, used fuel has less than one-thousandth of the radioactivity it had when it was removed from the reactor. And it is incorrect to call it waste, because 95 percent of the potential energy is still contained in the used fuel after the first cycle. ...

    (The emphasis is mine. This is the first time I've ever heard a hard-core environmentalist promote nuclear recycling. It's just incredible!)

    ... And even if a jumbo jet did crash into a reactor and breach the containment, the reactor would not explode. There are many types of facilities that are far more vulnerable, including liquid natural gas plants, chemical plants and numerous political targets. ...

    ... If we banned everything that can be used to kill people, we would never have harnessed fire. The only practical approach to the issue of nuclear weapons proliferation is [...] to use diplomacy and, where necessary, force ...

    Everything he says in his article is basically true. I never thought I'd find myself in 100% agreement with Greenpeace, but at this very moment I can't disagree with anything he's said. Kudos to you, Mr. Moore!

  11. It is real, look out the window by brunes69 · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Global warming and climate change are real and undenyable. All it takes is some sampling of weather patterns over the past few hundred years (since we have been recording them) to note the drastic shifts in the past few decades.

    It is absolutely not refutable that change is occuring. What is refuta ble is whether or not it is because of a natural cycle, or because of man-made change.

    But the thing is, it does not matter what the cause is. If the cycle continues it will certainly, without a doubt, lead to the death of us as a civilization, whether we were the cause or not.

    Hence the concern. It doesn't matter if we are the root cause or not, we're the only species on the planet with the capability to reduce and possibly reverse the cycle.

    1. Re:It is real, look out the window by ndansmith · · Score: 4, Funny

      I concur! There seems to be a lot more hot air circulating around Slashdot . . .

    2. Re:It is real, look out the window by Kohath · · Score: 2, Interesting

      If the cycle continues it will certainly, without a doubt, lead to the death of us as a civilization, whether we were the cause or not.

      Yeah, shorter winters and longer growing seasons. I'm out of my mind with panic already.

    3. Re:It is real, look out the window by Tackhead · · Score: 2, Insightful
      > It is absolutely not refutable that change is occuring. What is refuta ble is whether or not it is because of a natural cycle, or because of man-made change.
      >
      >But the thing is, it does not matter what the cause is. If the cycle continues it will certainly, without a doubt, lead to the death of us as a civilization, whether we were the cause or not.
      >
      >Hence the concern. It doesn't matter if we are the root cause or not, we're the only species on the planet with the capability to reduce and possibly reverse the cycle.

      Boy, am I glad you weren't gloabl emperor in the 70s when "it was absolutely not refutable" that the problem was global cooling, and not warming.

      That's the indelicate way of saying that it bloody well does matter what the cause is, because unless you understand the cause, you're likely to apply the wrong solution, because the correct solution to "natural" global cooling in the 70s would have been to ignite every coal seam on fire in order to dump as much CO2 into the atmosphere as possible to keep things warm.

    4. Re:It is real, look out the window by caffeination · · Score: 2, Insightful
      It's not a question of whether or not we can do anything about it, it's whether we should. Why should we tune the ecosystem to our own benefit, when the planet has gone through things like ice-ages which have only served to refine the life here?

      A lot hinges on the question of whether the changes are our doing. If they're not, we should adapt ourselves, not the planet. If they are, we need to start controlling ourselves. Your view of the solution sounds a bit external to humans ("reverse the cycle") for my tastes, though my impression may be wrong.

    5. Re:It is real, look out the window by Golias · · Score: 4, Insightful

      But the thing is, it does not matter what the cause is. If the cycle continues it will certainly, without a doubt, lead to the death of us as a civilization, whether we were the cause or not.

      I was with you up until that point.

      We don't know whether another three degrees of warming over the next century (which is what the most pessimistic of Global Warming predictors are saying will happen regardless of what changes we make) will, on balance, be a Good Thing or a Bad Thing.

      Historically, periods of warm climates have been more prosperous for mankind than cool eras, because most of the land in the world lies outside the tropics.

      All the Ice melting off Greenland might suck if you live in Venice, New Orleans, or some other port town that is mostly below sea level, but it's the best news ever if you've invested in any arctic real estate.

      I'm a big fan of going to nuclear as an incrimental step towards Solar, fusion, or some other, better power source... not because I buy in to "greenhouse" climate models, but rather because I like the idea of cleaner air in our cities. It just plain makes sense, no matter which side of the Global Warming debate you are on.

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    6. Re:It is real, look out the window by Rei · · Score: 5, Informative

      Ah, the old scientists in the 1970s believed in global cooling myth rears its ugly head again.

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    7. Re:It is real, look out the window by moonbender · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Congratulations for buying into the global cooling myth!

      Every now and again, the myth that "we shouldn't believe global warming predictions now, because in the 1970's they were predicting an ice age and/or cooling" surfaces. Recently, George Will mentioned it in his column (see Will-full ignorance) and the egregious Crichton manages to say "in the 1970's all the climate scientists believed an ice age was coming" (see Michael Crichtons State of Confusion ). You can find it in various other places too [here, mildly here, etc]. But its not an argument used by respectable and knowledgeable skeptics, because it crumbles under analysis. That doesn't stop it repeatedly cropping up in newsgroups though.

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    8. Re:It is real, look out the window by Martin+Blank · · Score: 5, Informative

      Does it bother you that hurricane researchers have said repeatedly that global warming had little or nothing to do with it, and that there was an expected upswell of activity due starting last year, give or take? Or that the US coastline had been dodging the averages for the better part of 20 years, with a far smaller fraction of hurricane strikes than the historic record would otherwise suggest? What will you be saying if the next hurricane season shows lower activity than the last?

      --
      You can never go home again... but I guess you can shop there.
    9. Re:It is real, look out the window by Golias · · Score: 2, Informative

      The funny thing is, the guy who was in charge in the 70s, President Carter, urged a ramp-up of coal burning as a solution to the oil crisis.

      (The "crisis" being that the Arabs actually wanted to sell oil for what it was worth, and nuclear power plants still scared the bejeezus out of everybody.)

      --

      Information wants to be anthropomorphized.

    10. Re:It is real, look out the window by gumnam · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Quote *Global warming and climate change are real and undenyable. *

      Is there undeniable evidence of global warming. Is there undeniable evidence that human race if the primary reason for this phenomena (if it exists!) Is there is undeniable proof that steps being taken to reduce greenhouse gases will actually reduce greenhouse gases and will reverse global warming ?

      If we lack the tools and understanding to predict weather no more than 10 days in advance for small regions, how can we even begin to understand the global level variables that affect climate over several years ?

      I believe we all need to periodically re-evaluate our opinions and beliefs and also reconsider the assumptions on which those opinions and beliefs are based and not just get fixated with certain ideas.

      Nothing is undeniable, nothing is certain. What you think true today can be positively wrong tomorrow. Earth is not flat, earth is not the center of the universe.

      --
      I post, therefore I am
    11. Re:It is real, look out the window by HappyEngineer · · Score: 2, Insightful
      SUV's are extremely practical for those with 2 or more kids especialy if activities are involved and/or people who haul stuff that needs to stay out of the weather.
      I'm not advocating SUV hating, but your reply is a bit silly. You can use a station wagon (or whatever they call 6 seat cars these days) for every reason you just mentioned unless by "haul stuff" you mean hauling firewood (as opposed to just hauling hockey equipment or anything else that'll fit in a station wagon just fine).
    12. Re:It is real, look out the window by Andy+Gardner · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Why should we tune the ecosystem to our own benefit, when the planet has gone through things like ice-ages which have only served to refine the life here?

      The question of whether we should is irrelevant. If we can do something to maintain the status quo, we will. It's the nature of natural selection that life forms do everything in their power to survive. It's beside the point that no species in Earth history has had the capability (assuming we do) to consiously affect a change in the global climate before.

      You can bet if the dinosaurs could have prevented the K-T extinction event they would have. It wouldn't have been good news for the mammals but from the perspective of the dinosaurs it would've been the smart evolutionary move. And that's what natural selection is all about.

      A lot hinges on the question of whether the changes are our doing. If they're not, we should adapt ourselves, not the planet.

      Again one of the things that has boosted man up the evolutionary scale is his/her ability to fashion tools and modify his environment. Are you saying we should throw away the thing that has given us our 'edge', so to speak?

    13. Re:It is real, look out the window by dougmc · · Score: 2, Funny
      GW is potentially beneficial and potentially harmful depending on local effects of GW...
      GWB?
    14. Re:It is real, look out the window by afidel · · Score: 4, Interesting

      It's called a minivan, it can haul more people, has more cargo room, and on average gets about 50% better fuel economy. Hell I wish Ford hadn't changed the Windstar, with the older model's you can haul 4'x8' sheets of sheet rock and plywood, try that with most SUV's! There is very little justification for a solid framed enclosed truck, for the people who need them I am fine with it, for the other 95 percent I resent their terrorist loving butts.

      --
      There are 4 boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order. Starting now.
    15. Re:It is real, look out the window by Savantissimo · · Score: 3, Informative
      Isn't realclimate.org by the guy who fudged his analysis to generate the discredited "hockey-stick" graph of temperature predictions?

      Even so, your link does not refute the GP poster's point at all. In fact, it reinforces it.
      From the concluding paragraph:
      Finally, its clear that there were concerns,[about a potential new ice age] perhaps quite strong, in the minds of a number of scientists of the time. And yet, the papers of the time present a clear consensus that future climate change could not be predicted with the knowledge then available.

      [and present climate knowledge still does not allow reliable predictions]

      So are you attempting to say that: because the concern was not unanimous (it never is) and scientists believed further study was warranted (they always say that) that the concern about global cooling was not common among climate researchers? It can't be denied that global cooling concerns were widely reported in the popular press in the 1970s, while global warming concerns were not.

      If press reports of the 1970s are not to be taken seriously, those of today regarding the nature and origins of climate change should also be viewed with healthy skepticism.
      --
      "Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery?" - Patrick Henry
    16. Re:It is real, look out the window by Have+Blue · · Score: 2

      Why shouldn't we? Every other animal attempts to make itself most likely to survive at the expense of other organisms. What makes humans an exception? What life form would you rather see survive and reproduce than yourself?

    17. Re:It is real, look out the window by That's+Unpossible! · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Global climate change scares me. Not for the usual reasons, but because humans are notoriously bad at "managing" the environment, and I sure hope whatever we come up with to "fix" the problem is not worse than nature's own course.

      Granted, we are generating a lot of pollution, and it would be great if we could stop without majorly fucking something else up in the process.

      But that last part there has been VERY DIFFICULT for us humans to do.

      The chinese curse is alive and well. Whenever I hear the latest global warming scaremongering, I can't help but think of it. "May you live in interesting times." Indeed!

      --
      Ironically, the word ironically is often used incorrectly.
    18. Re:It is real, look out the window by iamlucky13 · · Score: 2

      Glad to see some people coming around to the fact that we aren't really certain any changes that may be occurring to the climate are human-related. There's some good evidence in favor of it, and some good evidence against it.

      But it actually is debatable whether or not change is really happening. The global averages temperatures probably really have risen 2/3 of a degree in the past 120 years. There is some uncertainty to that, largely (to the best of my knowledge) due to questions of whether systematic errors exist in the temperature record, but those numbers appear to reflect proper science. Looking at short term trends and saying that it's irrefutable that change is happening, however, is unfounded. Swings of 4-5 degrees have happened over the last 100,000 years or so, lending serious credence to suggestions that current changes are part of a larger trend and not something new.

      That the cycle should kill us off in anything resembling the near future (ie, before the sun dies or an asteroid hits us) has little merit. The temperatures rose and fell significantly throughout history without getting out of control. Although some species have died off, none have really shown the same degree of adaptability to change that humans have, since our building skills enable us to create favorable environments even in really unfavorable regions, ranging from the polar tundras to the equatorial deserts.

    19. Re:It is real, look out the window by Rei · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Nice job of truncating the last paragraph without mentioning it:

      "Apparently, the peer review and editing process involved in scientific publication was sufficient to provide a sober view. This episode shows the scientific press in a very good light; and a clear contrast to the lack of any such process in the popular press, then and now."

      The article previously described those concerns: that, *excluding* anthropogenic alterations, which they *specifically stated that they could not model well at the time* (quite the contrast to the present, where the papers state that we *can* model quite accurately**), there would be another ice age in *tens of thousands of years*.

      How did you read the article and miss all of that?

      ** - If you want to get into a debate over present day climate modelling, go ahead and light the match. After watching a long presentation by the director of NCAR (Tim Killeen) and speaking with him at length afterwards, I'd be more than happy to discuss this with you. We can start with the fact that present day computing per dollar buys you about one million times as much computing power, progress into the fact that the amount of funding available for that computing has skyrocketted (their advancing computing needs easily beat Moore's law), and continue into the details of the climate models (datapoints every county or two, collecting data down to how dust lifted off the Sahara affects algal blooms) and the verification of the models.

      --
      The Spanish-English dictionary is out of ink.
    20. Re:It is real, look out the window by FhnuZoag · · Score: 5, Informative

      Oh really?

      http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=181

      The argument, IIRC, is centred on the intensity of hurricanes. Activity based on numbers of hurricanes do not capture such an effect, while intensity graphs show a pretty good correlation. Though things are still sketchy at the moment, you can't make a handwave motion and suggest that all hurricane researchers are of the same opinion.

    21. Re:It is real, look out the window by Rei · · Score: 4, Informative
      --
      The Spanish-English dictionary is out of ink.
    22. Re:It is real, look out the window by hackstraw · · Score: 2, Interesting

      And droughts. And more powerful storms. And the melting of the glaciers on Greenland and Antarctica, and the resulting 10' rise in oceans heights. And the disruption of the jet stream to northern Europe. And the ensuing famines. And the flooding of coastal areas.

      Face it. Most people in the US are bored. They on average spend 4 hours a day in front of the tv, 8 hours working, 8 hours sleeping, and 4 hours unexplained.

      From what I hear, New Orleans is a blessing since the hurricane. Crime is almost non-existant, and people are focused on rebuilding the city, working, and being nice to each other.

      Maybe a shifting environment and real estate changes will be good for us.

    23. Re:It is real, look out the window by Kohath · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Let's make a deal:

      Global warming caused last year's record number of hurricanes. So this year, when the number of hurricanes is fewer, we'll know it's because global warming has peaked and is no longer a problem. Do we have a deal?

    24. Re:It is real, look out the window by R3d+M3rcury · · Score: 2, Insightful

      And you know what? That's fine, too. Heck, a friend of mine runs a parasailing school. Needless to say, he has to take a lot of shit to the top of a mountain. Thus, he has a big-honkin' SUV. More power to him. I know people who use have SUVs because they have a boat and they need to tow it. As I've said before, I want those people to have SUVs. I've been stuck behind people with passenger cars trying to tow a trailer uphill. It isn't fun. So for those people, I'll stand up and applaud when they buy an SUV.

      According to statistics I've seen, that's about 2% of SUV owners.

      Part of the issue that I have with most SUV owners is that they basically have what I call "Macho Minivans." They don't go off-roading. They don't go camping--or if they do, it's to campsites barely off the highway and they do it for a week in the summer. They like the SUV because they can carry lots of groceries and the kids' stuff. Yet there are other vehicles which could be used instead--namely the minivan--but Dad doesn't want to drive them because they are not considered "manly" vehicles. If you see a guy driving a minivan, he obviously has a job, a wife, some kids, etc. etc. It may not be true in certain cases, but that's how society "sees" you.

      As for things that you carry, some of it might also depend on how often you need to do this. Now I'll admit, I live in a metropolitan area, but I grew up in the country and I understand it's different. But, for example, I recently needed to carry a lot of stuff. Y'know what I did? I went to Enterprise, conveniently located down the block, and rented an SUV for the day. Moved the stuff from Point-A to Point-B and then returned the vehicle. Cost me about $60. A couple of years ago, my Dad bought a cord of wood for his shop's woodstove. They actually delivered it right to the woodshed. Cost him an extra $100 or so.

      Now, don't get me wrong. If you're going out every weekend for an SUV load of alfalfa, pellets, or pine shavings, it might be cost-effective to own one. If you do this once-a-year or so, it might be cheaper to just rent an SUV from the local Enterprise or see if they'll deliver it to you.

    25. Re:It is real, look out the window by sbaker · · Score: 2, Informative

      According to Wikipedia:

      Average passenger-miles per gallon:

      Automobiles 34.9
      Personal trucks 30.8
      Motorcycles 55.0
      Transit Buses 30.3
      Airlines 33.8
      Intercity trains 25.9
      Commuter trains 46.1

      So Airlines are better than AVERAGE cars - but an SUV is much worse than an average car.

      Motorcycles and commuter trains win.

      But a FUEL EFFICIENT car is the best option. You can fit an adult, 3 kids and a bunch of kid stuff into a 35mpg MINI Cooper - I do it all the time. Then you're up to 140 passenger miles per gallon - but even when you drive alone, you're still doing a shade better than average. With a typical SUV - even with three kids - you are only just barely making the average - but when you drive it alone (as I'm SURE you do) - you're dragging the average down so far...

      --
      www.sjbaker.org
    26. Re:It is real, look out the window by Savantissimo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "Apparently, the peer review and editing process involved in scientific publication was sufficient to provide a sober view. This episode shows the scientific press in a very good light; and a clear contrast to the lack of any such process in the popular press, then and now."

      I didn't quote that because it was pure opinion not supported by the sources cited. Curiously, taken at face value that quote also undermines your and the author's contention that the current press coverage of climate change is more responsible than it was in the '70s. Given the present popular press' continual doomsday drumbeat regarding supposedly anthropogenic and severe global warming, the press' admitted present lack of scientific rigor tends to call the current conventional climate wisdom into futher question rather than support it.

      "there would be another ice age in *tens of thousands of years*."
      You mean "within" not "in". Also note the 1940s-1970s cooling trend mentioned as the occasion for concern at the time.

      The climate either gets cooler or warmer - the one thing it NEVER does is stay exactly the same. Taking changes in climate as evidence of anything has to be taken with a huge grain of salt.

      As for the climate models, the problem scales as what, perhaps n^(3.x) at best? So even if there is 1E9 times more power available, the simulation is at best only 1000 times faster than in the '70s. And you're still talking about a chaotic system modeled at >1km resolution with complicated ad-hoc algorithms that are usually not fully available for independent review, so you're just running a more obfuscated kind of garbage faster. Particularly when the models still don't fully predict the behavior of the most impotant greenhouse gas, water vapor, and its interdependence with the most major cooling factor, clouds. Can these computer climate models retrodict past obervations? Can they do so with a code complexity less than the prediction complexity and produce robust predictions despite small variations in the initial states? No? Then don't ask anyone to take their predictions seriously.

      --
      "Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery?" - Patrick Henry
    27. Re:It is real, look out the window by Wavicle · · Score: 2, Insightful

      That article is a fine example of the bullshit logic that pro-GW forces like to use when backed into a corner:

      Due to this semi-random nature of weather, it is wrong to blame any one event such as Katrina specifically on global warming - and of course it is just as indefensible to blame Katrina on a long-term natural cycle in the climate.

      Sorry, where I come from we have what's called the null hypothesis. In any research asking "was this caused by humans?" the null hypothesis is "no." This sort of language is the crap you see when they don't want to come out and knock a block out of the humans-caused-global-warming super structure. Unless you have evidence to suggest that it was not natural, the assumption is that it was. They've turned a normal statistical test bad by asking it both ways: "was this caused by humans?" and "was this natural?" Since neither will get your confidence interval you say "oh, see, we just don't know." Like hell, you only do that sort of thing when the answer to the first question doesn't fit your agenda.

      --
      Education is a better safeguard of liberty than a standing army.
      Edward Everett (1794 - 1865)
    28. Re:It is real, look out the window by Reaperducer · · Score: 4, Informative
      --
      -- I'm old enough to have lived through six different meanings of the word "hacker."
    29. Re:It is real, look out the window by xSauronx · · Score: 4, Insightful
      or because they "liked it".

      two months ago my sister bought a pacifica. she has 1 kid and no need to haul much more than some groceries most of the time. i have 2 kids and am comfy in my sable, though id kinda like a wagon again, but only sometimes.

      anyway, we were helping her move last month and i got very upset with her. were at a mini storage place, and have things strewn about dciding where to put what in a u-haul, and she says shes gonna get the guys some sodas. groovy.

      then she asks us to move everything out of her way, because she *Cant* back the pacifica up. you get inside, and windows are tiny, in addition to her being short. she literally couldnt fucking see to drive in reverse. she admitted it, she even knew it when she bought it, that she could barely see out of it to drive well.

      i tore into her, moved her stupid fucking car, and told her to go buy a civic that she could actually take somewhere. she doesnt have a good reason for an SUV, or whatever you call that pathetic atrocity, she bought it because she thought it looked nice; despite that she was moving from north carolina to alabama, and intended to make the drive at least once every 6 weeks or so (even with gas on the rise) back home to visit, and had nothing she *has* to haul besides a baby, a diaper bag, and what not, all of which could easily fit into a mid-size sedan that she could actually *drive properly*.

      some people are just selfishly fucking stupid. i know some guys like to tout the freedom of choice, and yes, its great. we all fuck up with that freedom from time to time, but to make a practically permanent stupid fucking decision just because you could? nice, sis. you cant drive it, dont need it, intend to put thousands of miles on it and the mileage is shitty.

      --
      By and large, language is a tool for concealing the truth. -- George Carlin
    30. Re:It is real, look out the window by the+argonaut · · Score: 2, Funny

      Homeowners' Association. Created by CCR's (Covenants, Conditions, and Restrictions), these delightful little private fiefdoms were originally used to keep blacks and Jews from moving into neighborhoods. Now they're used to keep out anybody who might want a basketball hoop in their front yard or paint their house any color besides the four approved colors.

      --
      fuck you.
    31. Re:It is real, look out the window by Xyrus · · Score: 2

      "If press reports of the 1970s are not to be taken seriously, those of today regarding the nature and origins of climate change should also be viewed with healthy skepticism."

      Let's see...1970...1970...why that was 30 years ago. Do you honestly think that meteorological scientists are using the same models? Do you think the increase in computational capacity has had no impact on the science? Do you think all the new data, from ice-cores to global monitoring has not aided in better describing the weather patterns of this planet? Do you think that not one thing has changed since then?

      Yeah, nothing changes in 3 decades.

      This is an extremely weak argument. Actually, it's not even an argument. But I digress.

      Fine, you want to be skeptic. That's just being lazy. Why be skeptic when you can get off your ass and figure it out for yourself.

      There are many many sites where you can go and peruse meteorological data, and download it as well. There are even visualization packages (free) that you can download and program yourself.

      These data include multiple atmospheric layers of data over time, GOES satellite imagery, IR, water vapor, etc. Just about any parameter you'd care to look at.

      The data are quite clear. The global temperature is indeed rising. The weather patterns are changing. What remains to be seen is how much and what impact it has.

      Cause is irrelevant at this point. Not much could be done whether human induced or not.

      So the choice is yours. You can go and look at the data yourself. Or, you can continue with your irrelevant drivel about 30-year-old met models.

      ~X~

      --
      ~X~
    32. Re:It is real, look out the window by qkslvr846 · · Score: 2, Funny

      uh, you divided a volume by an area. you need the surface area and the volumes of both to figure this out correctly (although props on remembering the density). i dont feel like looking them up, you're welcome to if you wish.

    33. Re:It is real, look out the window by mortonda · · Score: 2, Insightful
      What's Dad got to be ashamed of? Am I the only husband/father who is proud that I am a husband/father?


      Amen! Being a father is the best and most important job I can imagine. I just wish I had more children so that I *need* a minivan. Some of the minivans I've driven are quite comfy, and drive nice. Maybe after the next child, the need will outweigh the expense. :)
    34. Re:It is real, look out the window by ceoyoyo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It's funny: I grew up in a place where a pickup was a definite asset. Middle of nowhere around latitude 56. Nothing but farms, a few highways, gravel roads (if you're lucky) and lots of mud. People used their trucks to haul stuff constantly. Whenever anyone from home moves to the city, the FIRST thing they do is get rid of their truck and buy a little car. They plan it when they're planning the move. "Yeah, I've got to get rid of my truck, find a place, move my stuff down...." If we're planning a road trip to the city, whoever has the car drives.

      People who really drive trucks know what a liability they are in the city.

    35. Re:It is real, look out the window by ceoyoyo · · Score: 2, Interesting

      At least offset. I read a huge study looking at SUV safety. I think the risk was about the same, SUV vs. midsize car before taking into account the SUV's penchant to roll. In a head on (or nearly head on) collision the SUV driver and passengers had about the same risk as someone in a car hitting a car. The car in the car vs. SUV situation naturally had something like an 80% greater chance of fatal injuries. When you count in rolling SUVs are particularly dangerous for children. I guess children tend to get hurt much worse in rollovers.

      So it's not a zero sum game. SUVs are a negative in crashes.

    36. Re:It is real, look out the window by M0b1u5 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      IDIOT!

      We simply have very little idea what the past climate has been like. Human record keeping is a joke: inaccurate at best, hopelessly flawed at worst. "Weather Stations" which were in open country, are now within suburbia, and the measurements taken have done nothing except record the predictable changes inmicroclimate (NOT CLIMATE!!) due to urbanisation.

      Also, please note: WEATHER IS NOT CLIMATE. Ipso facto, all "weather stations" record is a tiny bunch of data which has almost nothing to do with climate, but quite a bit to do with weather.

      Note also: to date, NO ONE has made an accurate prediction about what will happen to our climate, OR long term weather. In fact, all (bar none!) predictions to date have been incredibly wrong.

      Sheeit - we can't predict the weather more than 10 days in advance - and that's with an incredible array of weather satelites, ground stations, weather balloons, observers and hostorical records, all plugged into super computers, and the results interpreted by specially trained weather people!

      Given this fact, it's weather predicters who must have the only job on the planet where they can get their job wrong 50% (or more) of the time, AND STILL HAVE A JOB TO GO TO NEXT WEEK!

      How on earth can you have any faith in any of these fools when they can;t make a single accurate prediction about ANYTHING? Oooops, sorry, they can predict their funding levels for the next 10 years pretty accurately, but beyond that? NOTHING.

      "Global Warming" must be approaching a trillion dollar a year industry - and boy, I wish I could get my hands on some of that cash too!

      1. Spurious Global Warming Predictions
      2. FUD
      3. ......
      3. Profit!

      --
      How many escape pods are there? "NONE,SIR!" You counted them? "TWICE, SIR!"
    37. Re:It is real, look out the window by Drakonian · · Score: 2, Insightful
      All the Ice melting off Greenland might suck if you live in Venice, New Orleans, or some other port town that is mostly below sea level, but it's the best news ever if you've invested in any arctic real estate.

      Give me a break. If the Greenland ice shelf melted, it would submerge maybe 40-50% of Florida. You saw the fuss created for 100,000 Katrina refugees? Imagine 200 million of them, worldwide.

      --
      Random is the New Order.
    38. Re:It is real, look out the window by Decaff · · Score: 2

      And yet they still can't accurately tell me if it will rain within the next few hours.

      Detailed models my ass.


      Why do people keep bringing up this irrelevant point?

      Long term prediction of trends is about exactly that - trends. Whether or not weather can be predicted to within hours is irrelevant. It is like, say, applying heat to a pan of water. You can't predict all the turbulence that will result, but you know that it is definitely going to heat up and boil. Would you take someone seriously if they said 'how can you know it will boil - you can't preduct when the next bubble appears?'

    39. Re:It is real, look out the window by skam240 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Humans are bad at managing the environment? I would argue to the contrary. The massive systems of dykes, canals, and dams that have been engineered for the last several thousand years are a testament to humanities ability to successfully manipulate its environment to its own benefit.

      Also, please explain why we should not attempt to halt or reduce air pollution (as you seem to be suggesting) because we're worried about causing other problems that may or may not exist. With that logic I wouldn't leave the house for fear of creating potential problems for others or myself since me leaving the house could fuck things up on both fronts.

      --
      I ignore Anonymous Coward posts. If you want to discuss something, that's awesome. Log in.
    40. Re:It is real, look out the window by trentblase · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I think all the people replying to your post "you should get a station wagon" are missing the point. 2 or more kids??? The world population just passed 6.5 billion. We don't need any more stinkin' kids! Think about how many resources each kid will consume, including the apparent requirement of you to purchase an SUV. Ok, so you already have the kids and I guess you can't kill them. And I guess you have a right to pursure... uh happiness or something. So just get a station wagon ok?

  12. What a breath of fresh air (um, literally). by ScentCone · · Score: 2, Interesting

    It's always funny to hear the greenies make fun of the all-too-Texan quirk of mispronouncing "new-cue-ler" while they make the actually meaningful error of not understanding the actual issues at hand. Too bad this guy's old buddies have so rabidly excommunicated him, but they're just as blind in their faith and their Nukes = Evil mantra as they would suggest that an oil-burning, SUV-driving Texan is in his own world view. Critical thinking, people! (both of you!)

    --
    Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
  13. The sad part? by Badgerman · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The sad thing is it's now news when someone rationally thinks over their position and changes their mind based on reasoning and evidence.

    --
    "The Sage treasures Unity and measures all things by it" - Lao Tzu
  14. Yes by abscissa · · Score: 2, Insightful

    As an environmentalist, I have always supported nuclear power. However, to suggest that global warming isn't taking place or that it is another "crackpot" idea of the environmentalist movement is simply flat out wrong.

    The people who were leading the anti-nuclear movement thirty years ago were not leading scientists and they did not have the equivelent access to information that we do now.

    I do not force my views about electrical engineering or molecular physics on everyone, having never stuided these things. Why does everyone feel compelled to contribute to the environmental debate when very, very few have studed environmental science?

  15. That's putting it mildly. by FooAtWFU · · Score: 4, Interesting
    Doesn't really share the views? That's putting it mildly.
    When I helped to create Greenpeace from a church basement in Vancouver in 1971 I had no idea that I would spend the next 15 years as an international director and leader of many Greenpeace campaigns. I also had no idea that after I left in 1986 they would evolve into a band of scientific illiterates who use Gestapo tactics to silence people who wish to express their views in a civilized forum. And I could never have guessed that my former colleague and then teen-age founder of Greenpeace France, Remi Parmentier, would be the one issuing the orders to silence me.
    http://www.greenspirit.com/printable.cfm?msid=26
    --
    The World Wide Web is dying. Soon, we shall have only the Internet.
  16. Good news by drgonzo59 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    It seems like the French already figured it out years before. And now are making money selling the electricity from their many nuclear power plants to others (read "Germany" where the Green Peace hippies managed to stop the building of nuclear power plants years ago). Whas is really that hard to predict that nuclear power can be made safe and will be a better option than becoming addicted to overseas oil? Sure Chernobyl happened (I was pretty close to it too) but they should have just looked at it that and said "let's see what they did wrong and fix and move on". Oh, no, they all freaked out: "OMG! Teh nucular power is teh evil -- must burn more oil and coal!".

    1. Re:Good news by Lazy+Jones · · Score: 2, Informative
      And now are making money selling the electricity from their many nuclear power plants to others (read "Germany" where the Green Peace hippies managed to stop the building of nuclear power plants years ago).

      Germany has been exporting electricity since 2003 (i.e. more exports than imports) according to this official report. In fact, in 2003, France had to import power from Germany because of the hot summer. Europe already has a larger production capacity than its projected needs and France will have to look for new markets soon.

      --
      "I love my job, but I hate talking to people like you" (Freddie Mercury)
  17. Re:ROTFLMFAO: Ludicrous article! by ScentCone · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Was this article written by the nuke PR folks?

    Nope. But you're clearly the exact sort of person he's talking about - who can't see the fundamental difference between the Chernobyl and TMI events.

    --
    Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
  18. Patrick Moore plays the xylophone though! by drgonzo59 · · Score: 2, Funny

    /Sorry, mandatory Patrick Moore link

  19. 2 Questions to the pro nuclear folks: by klingens · · Score: 3, Insightful

    a) Is there any commercial insurance company which will insure a nuclear reactor? Here in Germany all reactors must be insured against meltdown, etc. Since no insurance company will write a police for a reactor, the government steps in and "insures" it. All of our reactors here are insured that way.

    b) Is there a place in any western democracy (russia and china probably have less problems in that area) for finally depositing the resulting nuclear waste? A proper finaly resting place for the stuff?

    1. Re:2 Questions to the pro nuclear folks: by Pendersempai · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Is there a place in any western democracy (russia and china probably have less problems in that area) for finally depositing the resulting nuclear waste? A proper finaly resting place for the stuff?

      Nope. Or at least, none that doesn't require some sort of ongoing upkeep. But here's my question for the anti-nuclear folks: what's your plan for the tons of radioactive soot that is pumped into our air currently from coal and oil power? At least the nuclear stuff comes packaged in barrels rather than people's lungs. There's less of it, pound for pound, and it's less harmful per pound.

      You can't evaluate nuclear power in a vacuum, you have to measure it against its alternatives... and when you do that, it beats them handily.

  20. Re:And in another 30 years? by NeutronCowboy · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Yeah, exactly - cuz because some people in the past were wrong about a specific topic , everyone who says anything about something that makes you uncomfortable has to be wrong too.

    How about instead of grasping at straws, you actually look at the data? And I mean, all of the data, not just the one that makes you feel fuzzy and warm?

    --
    Those who can, do. Those who can't, sue.
  21. the big difference: pebble bed reactors by circletimessquare · · Score: 4, Informative

    pebble bed reactors make all the difference

    because they are super safe. they don't melt down. no china syndrome, no 3 mile island, no chernobyl, no silkwood. the fuel is packed in glass pebbles. meltdown is not possible by accidental means

    explain this to people and their old understanding of nuclear's dangers, based on 1970s era thinking fade away. which is also about the time that nuclear itself faded away, because of the dangers. but in a world of oil-funded islamic extremism and oil-fueled global warming, super-safe pebble bed nuclear energy looks mighty attractive. now all we need to do is wait for popular wisdom and political will to catch up

    and with breeder reactors, we can reprocess the nuclear waste from the bygone era of old-style reactors and do away with all of that left-over pollution. imagine that: run new reactors off of a previous generation's waste. old-style reactors only use 10% of available fuel, the rest sits unused and radiocative for tens of thousands of years. with reprocessing, 95% of the fuel can be used, and left over are isotopes with radioactive half lives measured in a century or two, not tens of thousands of years

    and don't let anyone tell you there would be a fuel shortage with the nuclear option like with oil. there is no peak uranium like there is peak oil. mainly because we can run nuclear power off of thorium as well as uranium. go look up the numbers on thorium reserves. we'd be fine for centuries. and the reserves are in more geopolitically friendly places

    the problem is still psychological for people though. nuclear IS scary. it's the same thing as flying: it's safer than driving, but people prefer to drive than fly, and feel safer driving than flying. even though the reverse is true. why? the illusion of familiarity and control. people stick with what they are comfortable with, even if what they are comfortable with sucks in comparison

    for the longest time i've tried to convince my gf to have laser eye treatment for her myopia. it's the best thing i ever did. but she is scared of the procedure. i tell her that she has more chance of getting an infection that will make her blind via contacts than via a laser screw up. but she wouldn't have any of it

    and just this month, they found a connection between bausch and lomb's renu, which she uses, and a sudden surge in cases of an eye fungus that blinds people. sure enough, on her very own, she made inquiries as to laser eye treatment last week

    so even though nuclear is safer in this world than oil due to hurricane katrina-making global warming and oil-funded 9/11 terrorism, people are more scared of nuclear than oil. they are familiar with oil, and there is an inertia about their reluctance to embrace nuclear

    so we're stuck in the inertia now, and we suffer for the inertia of the general public and the politicians. all of the nimby's who wouldn't let these things be built would apparently prefer to ship their children to falluja to protect oil than build a completely safe pebble bed reactor. meanwhile, china is investing heavily in this technology. so while the usa wears itself down fighting islamonazi wackjobs sitting on top of their precious oil, places like china will enjoy air pollution free totally safe pebble bed reactor power

    some morons don't understand the science, but know how to yell loudly and chain themselves to train tracks to prevent uranium shipments

    and we all suffer for that

    --
    intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
    1. Re:the big difference: pebble bed reactors by Mr.+Slippery · · Score: 2, Insightful
      pebble bed reactors make all the difference...because they are super safe.

      Except, they're not. Surrounding your fissionable with graphite - the stuff that fueled the Chernobyl fire - is not really bright. And a 1986 accident in Germany with a damaged "pebble" led to the release of radiation.

      and with breeder reactors, we can reprocess the nuclear waste from the bygone era of old-style reactors and do away with all of that left-over pollution

      Reprocessing leaves around plenty of thorium, radium, radon, and radioactive lead isotopes.

      there is no peak uranium like there is peak oil. mainly because we can run nuclear power off of thorium as well as uranium.

      Of course there's a "peak uranium", thorium doesn't change that. But thorium is a lousy fuel, it has to be "bred" into U233. And then you've still got a "peak thorium"; as thorium is about three times as abundant as uranium, maybe that's in 150 years instead of 50. (But then you need more thorium to get the same energy, so maybe sooner.)

      --
      Tom Swiss | the infamous tms | my blog
      You cannot wash away blood with blood
  22. Wrong question by Mr.+Slippery · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Is fission less dangerous to the environment than coal? Perhaps. If it were a choice between only between building more coal plants and building fission ones, it's possible that fission might win out. (Though I think it would have to depend of the specifics of the technologies and implementations involved.)

    But that's the wrong question.

    At best, fission is still a stop-gap: supplies of fissionables are limited, on the order of a century or two at most, perhaps much less. So is it not more reasonable to divert resources to solving the problem right - with fusion reseach, renewables (i.e., using that big fusion reactor in the sky, including ideas like orbital photovoltaics) and better energy efficiency - than to build fission reactors and pushing the problem onto our great-grandchildren? (Or rather, for us non-breeders, our friends' great-grandchildren?)

    The TFA mentions the Iran situation only to gloss over it, but there are massive security concerns with fission technology.

    Also TFA is inaccurate in talking about nuclear waste; the problem is not the U and Pu in spent fuel, which can be processed and reused, but thorium, radium, radon, and radioactive lead isotopes.

    Is some of the opposition to fission irrational? Yes. But so is some of its support, based on an almost romantic notion of "man harnassing the mighty power of the atom!"

    --
    Tom Swiss | the infamous tms | my blog
    You cannot wash away blood with blood
    1. Re:Wrong question by IvyKing · · Score: 2, Insightful
      At best, fission is still a stop-gap: supplies of fissionables are limited, on the order of a century or two at most, perhaps much less.

      We've got plenty of fissionables (which include U-238 and Th-232), but the supply of fissiles (e.g U-235) is much more limited. Uranium is actually quite common, typical granite has about 1 gram per tonne. Anyway, the whole issue of limited supply of fissile material versus fissionable was what was behind the development of breeder reactors - with the integral fast reactor having some intriguing attributes (and significant engineering challenges).

      Also TFA is inaccurate in talking about nuclear waste; the problem is not the U and Pu in spent fuel, which can be processed and reused, but thorium, radium, radon, and radioactive lead isotopes.

      WTF are you talking about??? Thorium is naturally occuring, radium and radon are part of the natural decay chain of U-238, and the only way lead becomes radioactive is by activation (typically by neutrons). The radioactive waste from reactors consists of fission products and transuranics (plutonium, americium, curium, etc.) - fisson products typically have short half lifes, while the transuranics often have very long half-lifes.

  23. Re:smug? -- makes two of you by Larkvi · · Score: 2, Informative

    Trolls are hardly uncommon on /.--you must be using quite a filter if this is the first you have seen.

  24. Nope. by Bill,+Shooter+of+Bul · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Certainly we have better technology today to make safer nuclear power.

    No, we don't. The technology is pretty much the same. There haven't been any new nuclear plants in the past 20 years and they really haven't updated much of the safety systems. There still isn't a long term way of dealing with the tons of radioactive waste being produced. Don't get me wrong, I think Nuclear is the way to go, but I would really like the storage system to be fixed soon.

    --
    Well.. maybe. Or Maybe not. But Definitely not sort of.
    1. Re:Nope. by Jherek+Carnelian · · Score: 4, Interesting

      No, we don't. The technology is pretty much the same.

      Yes we do! It hasn't seen much commercial development (none inside the US) but the Integral Fast Reactor produces waste that only takes about 300 years to return to the original level of radioactivity as the fuel that went into the reactor.

      Storing radioactive waste for only 300 years is is many orders of mangitude more feasible than the storage of current waste for tens of thousands of years.

    2. Re:Nope. by Jherek+Carnelian · · Score: 2, Insightful

      So you would not mind, say, having your drinking water contaminated with fuel for nuclear reactors?

      Maybe you missed the point - after 300 years there is no net increase in radioactivity.

      Put the waste back where the original fuel came from and there is no change in radiation levels. If you want to argue about externals having an impact and that you can't just put it back without additional effects on the environment, then sit on the stuff for 900 years and you are down way BELOW the original level of radioactivity. 900 years is still hugely easier to manage than 90,000 years.

  25. Depends on what fuel cycle you use. by Kadin2048 · · Score: 2, Informative

    I never saw this, but I have seen a lot of variation in the "number of years nuclear energy will power us for" figures. I think there are a few different things that get done to the statistics depending on which outcome you want to show.

    Probably the biggest is whether you just take today's energy consumption figures and use them for the future, or whether you project the rate of increase of energy into the future, in order to get your numbers. Obviously a source of energy that could power us for 100 years in 1955 might only last 15 today, and might only last 1 in another 40 or 50 years.

    The other major issue is whether you pretend that we'll use the uranium intelligently, or we'll keep squandering it in wasteful reactors like we do today. Right now, our nuclear reactors here in the US (and pretty much everywhere else in the world) are the atomic-age equivalents of an open-hearth coal-fired boiler, giant and inefficient. We shovel enriched uranium into them, use it to make some electricity, and out comes waste. It's terrible, and it wastes a non-renewable resource (fissile uranium). Although I don't know exactly how long we'd last doing this, if you told me it was less than a generation or two before we used up all the fissile uranium, I'd believe you. It's a hellacious waste.

    If we were using all that uranium in breeder reactors, using it's neutrons to enrich naturally non-fissile uranium into plutonium, then we'd greatly extend the length of time we'd be able to run on atoms as a civilization. I'm not sure exactly how much plutonium you can produce per pound of fissile uranium, but if you compare it to just wasting those neutrons by crashing them into the shielding, it's basically like making free fuel.

    Although I generally dislike the French government, I have to give them kudos in this area for being the only government with the balls to continue civilian research in this area, when the US decided to ban it (thanks, President Carter!) and hitch our wagon to the horses of Persian Gulf oil. Ironically, although the excuse for banning fuel reprocessing was because it could be used to create nuclear weapons, it was the breeder reactors used for creating nuclear weapons (and not peaceful energy) that remained in operation, both here and in the Soviet Union.

    I'm a pretty big proponent of nuclear technologies, but I seriously wonder whether it's good in the long run (multi-generational outlook here) for us to build nuclear reactors that do nothing but "burn" U-235 and produce waste, rather than waiting until we come to grips with breeder technology and decide to build facilities that encompass the whole nuclear fuel cycle. I have this fear that if we don't do that, our (grand)children will be left fighting over the world's remaining stocks of U-235, wondering why we wasted all of it so quickly, or digging up Yucca Mountain for the U-238 that we so casually threw away.

    --
    "Ladies and gentlemen, my killbot features Lotus Notes and a machine gun. It is the finest available."
    1. Re:Depends on what fuel cycle you use. by radtea · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Ironically, although the excuse for banning fuel reprocessing was because it could be used to create nuclear weapons, it was the breeder reactors used for creating nuclear weapons (and not peaceful energy) that remained in operation, both here and in the Soviet Union.

      There are legitimate issues with the widespread use of breeder reactors for power generation. I'm not familiar with the details of modern civilian breeder technology, but current weapons reactors run on a three month fuel cycle, and this is likely to be the case for civilian reactors too (the 238U jacket will have to be cycled roughly every 90 days.) This is because 240Pu starts to build up significantly after that time, making the fuel difficult to handle. The rate of this process is fixed by the cross-sections. There's not a whole lot you can do about it.

      So one is necessarily moving rather a lot of quite radioactive material around. Ideally one would like to do reprocessing on site for this reason, but that is expensive: it means you need to have as many reprocessing plants as you have reactors. On the other hand, advances in gas centrifuge technology in the past fifteen years have made isotopic separation so easy that a country run by wingnuts who believe a funny picture is worth rioting over can do it, so local reprocessing may be more practical now than it once was.

      Central reprocessing would be cheaper, but it would mean moving all that hot fuel by truck or train. Accidents will happen, and theft is a definite possibility, but the real problem is inventory control. If you think about moving say 100,000 kg of fuel around for reprocessing every year, and your inventory control is good to 0.1%, you have a slop of 100 kg per year. It's moderately hard to feel safe in a world like that.

      Thorium-cycle technology has a lot of appeal, although any technology other than CANDU-type D2O moderated natural uranium piles are going to necessarily involve materials and technologies that could be used for bombs. We should probably consider ourselves fortunate that it's so hard to make plutonium explode, given how much of it is likely to be sloshing around loose.

      So my view is: slow neutron technology is a lousy investment because it only buys us a century. Fast neutron technlogy is worth some investment, particularly thorium-cycle stuff, but it should only be one area of focus, and not the primary one.

      My own belief is that algal biodeisel or something like it is far more likely to be the long-term fuel of the future. Hydrocarbons are just too damned convenient. They have a human scale--a high enough power density to be really useful, but low enough that they rarely level more than a city block (although anyone who has seen a tank farm fire will be aware that they have dangers of their own.)

      --
      Blasphemy is a human right. Blasphemophobia kills.
  26. Nice ad hom by bravehamster · · Score: 3, Insightful

    This is a textbook example of an ad hominem attack. If you have anything to say about his actual message, I'd be interested to hear it.

    --
    ---- El diablo esta en mis pantalones! Mire, mire!
    1. Re:Nice ad hom by swillden · · Score: 2, Insightful

      This is a textbook example of an ad hominem attack.

      No, it isn't. If the GP claimed Moore has a foul body odor, is involved in a sexual relationship with his brother, or employs undocumented domestic staff, those would be ad hominem attacks (whether true or not, BTW -- I picked examples that are probably untrue, but claims need not be false to be ad hominem).

      Questioning your opponent's person, habits or general history is ad hominem. Questioning his motivations and rationale for taking a given position is not ad hominem. Of course, it's still better to simply address his arguments head-on, but sometimes its necessary to analyze motivations to detect subtly slanted arguments.

      In this particular case, I happen to think Moore is absolutely right with his stance on nuclear power, whatever his reasons for taking that position, and I also think it's useful to know that many environmentalists are going to discount his words because of his anti-environmental lobbying efforts. Reading the headline, I was hopeful that perhaps we were actually seeing environmentalists realizing that nuclear power is less risky than the alternatives. Reading the GP's post about Moore made me realize that this article, at least, doesn't provide evidence of that hoped-for change of opinion.

      --
      Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
  27. Re:Wrong disaster by Total_Wimp · · Score: 5, Informative

    Energy shortage is no more a disaster than most other shortages, provided you have an economy based on supply and demand.

    Look at water. Many people have claimed that there would be water shortages in the California. Everyone should conserve water because we're running out. Now look in the Middle East. People have no problem paying for desalination plants. But you never hear them talk about water conservation in the Mid East, because who on Earth would waste such an expensive resource as water? California would find it has plenty of water if people have to pay what water is worth.

    The reason we face energy shortages has nothing to do with the fact that we're running out. It has to do with the fact that we waste it. When the price gets high enough, provided of course that the government lets it get high, then you'll find out people get quite resourceful about conservation. You'll also find that there is plenty of energy to do the things we must.

    TW

  28. Re:It's good to see Moore writing this by nomadic · · Score: 2, Funny

    The obvious point is that he's a respected environmentalist, and not a bought and paid for lobbyist of the nuclear industry.

    Ummm, no, he IS a bought and paid for lobbyist of the nuclear industry.

  29. He's a lobbyist by 2short · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Patrick Moore is not a modern environmentalist, he is a paid lobbyist for the energy industry.

    He consistently presents himself as a "founder of Green Peace"; while he may have been an early member, "founder" is, as far as I can tell, a stretch. It is rather disingenous of him to keep mentioning his now quite distant association with the enviromental movement, without ever mentioning who's paying his salary today.

    Mind you, he's welcome to express whatever views he has, and I don't even necessarily disagree about nuclear power. But the news outlets that continue to identify him as "Patric Moore, founder of Greenpeace" instead of "Patrick Moore, Exxon-Mobil shill" need a lesson in journalism.

    Greenpeace got too political, so he left to become a lobbyist? Right. He found out what side of the debate paid better.

    1. Re:He's a lobbyist by 2short · · Score: 2, Insightful

      See, now that's an interesting discussion we could have, were he identified that way, rather than trying to discuss why a "Greenpeace Founder" would promote nuclear power.

      From what I can tell, an "Exxon-Mobil shill" would promote nuclear power because he's a whore, and will promote whatever he's paid to promote. Since the thing he's got going for him is the ability to get news outlets to identify him as a "Greenpeace founder", the people who will pay him to promote stuff is anyone who needs to spike an eco-image problem. So he has lobbied in favor of gas & mining companuies, nuke plants, bio-tech, etc.

  30. hello... logic? by wall0159 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    With all due respect, just because _one_ self-proclaimed environmentalist, ex-anti-nuclear 'activist' now says he was wrong, and nuclear is good, this doesn't suddenly count as a huge weight of evidence against every person who's ever spoken against nuclear.

    Some people are quick to forget that it's possible to weigh the benefits of nuclear objectively, and conclude that it is NOT THE BEST OPTION. Sure - there will be opinions that differ, but that doesn't make anyone who is against nuclear power a tree-hugging hippy!

    Personally, I think it's curious that humans think we need a SINGLE source of energy. why can't we make as much use of efficiency/wind/solar/hydro as is reasonable/practical/possible and then 'top-up' with nuclear on an as-needs basis? To my mind, that would be a much better solution than just replacing every fossil-fuel power plant with a nuclear substitute.

  31. what to do with 48T/yr of nuclear waste per plant by SuperBanana · · Score: 3, Insightful
    The logic behind using safe forms of nuclear power has been clear for a long, long time. It's nice to see some greens finally start accepting what has been obvious to some of us for 30 or 40 years.

    You can sell nuclear energy to me when you can answer the question "What do we do with 48 tons of nuclear waste generated per year per plant"? Arrogant people think nuclear power is perfectly safe. Paranoid people think nuclear power will destroy the planet. Intelligent people see plant designs that are intrinsically safe, but want to know what we're going to do with the waste.

    The ONLY solution the industry has right now is "bury it" (Yucca), "make it someone else's problem" (Arizona's) and "hope we're not around if it is a problem"(whoever is on the planet when Yucca breaks open, or is attacked, or a society 1,000 years from now, which can't read English, trundles into the mysterious cave and comes out with Magical Glowing Glass.)

    Industry never changes. Their solutions to waste never change; it's always about hiding it or making it someone else's problem, because those are the cheapest and easiest.

    We've got about 50,000 tons of nuclear waste sitting around in various stockpiles across the nation; more than any other hazardous waste, and if you want to get really scared- some of it is sitting in pools of water (because it heats itself constantly) in STEEL CONTAINERS.

    The only solution on the table right now is Yucca; only problem is, we're just extending the parameters of "bury a hole" and "be long gone when it becomes a problem." The stuff in Yucca mountain will be around for 100,000 years. There are serious problems with making stuff last that long, making signs that people will understand even 1,000 years from now, geological changes over just a few thousand years, etc.

  32. I think we've been asking the wrong question by Spy+der+Mann · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Instead of just asking "what can we do to pollute less to produce energy", we should ask "what can we do to WASTE less energy?"

    I mean, we can have the most efficient power plants in the world and generate only 10% CO2, but if we keep using incandescent lightbulbs, CRT televisions and XTRA-HOT CPU's, i doubt it'll help.

    Instead I'd welcome more investment in solar cells, ultra-efficient lighting and low-heat CPU's.

  33. Nuclear is not a green technology by Dram · · Score: 2, Interesting

    World Changing had a post last week explaining why nuclear power is not a great solution to fossil fuels. There are three main reasons why they say nuclear is not the answer: 1) They bring up the issue of safety, not only for the reactors but of storing the radioactive waste. 2) Mining the ore needed is a very high impact activity, so the environmental impact might not be any less, although it would likely be concentrated in a few locations. 3) The money to develop and build new nuclear reactors could be more efficiently spent on greener technologies.

    When it comes to climate change, nuclear is probably a better option. But in no way is nuclear a green technology, it just alleviates the most pressing issue facing fossil fuel use. What we need to do is develop truly green and renewable energy sources, which doesn't include nuclear.

    1. Re:Nuclear is not a green technology by Geoff+St.+Germaine · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Well, the reasons given in that article are actually good reasons to go with nuclear. Reactor safety is basically a non-issue for third generation nuclear reactors (which have passive safety systems). As far as waste management goes, the thing to wait for is the fourth generation nuclear reactors which offer the possibility of burning actinides, which would significantly reduce the amount of high-level waste. It seems that when groups bring up the fact that mining of uranium ore causes environmental damage they ignore the fact that coal is also mined and that mountain-top removal has a massive environmental impact. The scale of mining required to remove coal is monstrous compared with uranium, considering that uranium has about 3.6 million times the energy density of coal (90 000 000 MJ/kg for uranium compared with 23-29 MJ/kg for coal). IMO, nuclear represents a step forward, but certainly not a permanent solution. At this point, many "greener" technologies are not suitable for use in as many locations as nuclear.

  34. Change of view by gfilion · · Score: 4, Interesting

    It's interesting/funny to read Patrick Moore describing his former colleague in environmental groups:

    [...] They rejected consensus politics and sustainable development in favor of continued confrontation and ever-increasing extremism. They ushered in an era of zero tolerance and left-wing politics. Some of the features of this environmental extremism are:

    Environmental extremists are anti-human. Humans are characterized as a cancer on the Earth. To quote eco-extremist Herb Hammond, "of all the components of the ecosystem, humans are the only ones we know to be completely optional". Isn't that a lovely thought?

    They are anti-science and technology. All large machines are seen as inherently destructive and unnatural. Science is invoked to justify positions that have nothing to do with science. Unfounded opinion is accepted over demonstrated fact.

    They are anti-business. All large corporations are depicted as inherently driven by greed and corruption. Profits are definitely not politically correct. The liberal democratic, market-based model is rejected even though no viable alternative is proposed to provide for the material needs of 6 billion people. As expressed by the Native Forest Network, "it is necessary to adopt a global phase out strategy of consumer based industrial capitalism."

    I think they mean civilization.

    And they are just plain anti-civilization. In the final analysis, eco- extremists project a naive vision of returning to the supposedly utopian existence in the garden of Eden, conveniently forgetting that in the old days people lived to an average age of 35, and there were no dentists. In their Brave New World there will be no more chemicals, no more airplanes, and certainly no more polyester suits.

    Ref: Patrick Moore's Nuclear Statement to the US Congressional Committee

  35. BS by danimrich · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I call bullshit on this one. He clearly has the facts wrong.

    The article states that the Chernobyl disaster killed just a few firemen who were fighting the fire. In fact many tens of thousands of people already died or will die of some form of cancer as a consequence of the disaster. For the religious among you: it is estimated that there have been 100000 and 200000 abortions because of Chernobyl.

    I read the article because I thought it might offer some sensible views on the topic, but in reality it is just a bad piece of lobbying. I wonder why the editors let this slip into the paper.

    --
    where's all that Karma?
    1. Re:BS by Mr.+Flibble · · Score: 2, Informative

      According to Wikipedia:

      Ukraine, put the total predicted number of deaths due to the accident at 4,000 (of which 2,200 deaths are expected to be in the ranks of 200 000 "liquidators") . This predicted death toll includes the 47 workers who died of acute radiation syndrome as a direct result of radiation from the disaster, nine children who died from thyroid cancer and an estimated 3,940 people who could die from cancer as a result of exposure to radiation.

      Perhaps he is talking about direct result here?

      --
      Try to hack my 31337 firewall!
    2. Re:BS by NearlyHeadless · · Score: 4, Informative
      In fact many tens of thousands of people already died or will die of some form of cancer as a consequence of the disaster.
      Sorry but the best estimate of the scientists is that a total of 4000 deaths will be caused by Chernobyl, not "tens of thousands".

      By contrast the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards were estimated to have cost 1,300 to 2,600 lives in the United States just during 1993 according to a National Academy of Sciences study.

    3. Re:BS by danimrich · · Score: 2, Informative

      The source for "tens of thousands" and for the claims relating to the abortions is the German wikipedia, which has a more detailed article discussing the studies as well. There seem to be quite a lot of people criticising the IAEO, UN & Co. report (which I believe is the base of some numbers on the English wikipedia) for wrong methodologies and purposely disregarding studies with larger death counts. The source for what I cited should be a recent meta-study based on Russian data. http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katastrophe_von_Tsche rnobyl#Ergebnisse_anderer_Studien
      The true number of dead might be somewhere in between the different estimates.

      --
      where's all that Karma?
    4. Re:BS by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 2, Informative

      I ask for scientific studies and you give me a opinion piece from the Tuesday, April 23, 1991 issue of the MIT Tech encouraging people to attend the "City of Boston Earth Day event remembering the Chernobyl human and environmental victims".

      This is nothing more than op/ed piece. It has no scientific value.

      Care to try again?

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    5. Re:BS by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 2, Interesting
      From the same report, emphasis added:
      Approximately 1,000 on-site reactor staff and emergency workers were heavily exposed to high-level radiation on the first day of the accident; among the more than 200,000 emergency and recovery operation workers exposed during the period from 1986-1987, an estimated 2,200 radiation-caused deaths can be expected during their lifetime.

      An estimated five million people currently live in areas of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine that are contaminated with radionuclides due to the accident; about 100,000 of them live in areas classified in the past by government authorities as areas of "strict control". The existing "zoning" definitions need to be revisited and relaxed in light of the new findings.

      About 4,000 cases of thyroid cancer, mainly in children and adolescents at the time of the accident, have resulted from the accident's contamination and at least nine children died of thyroid cancer; however the survival rate among such cancer victims, judging from experience in Belarus, has been almost 99%.

      Poverty, "lifestyle" diseases now rampant in the former Soviet Union and mental health problems pose a far greater threat to local communities than does radiation exposure.


      In other words, the article does not support your arguement and actually states that the people effected by the radiation are at more risk from their lifestyles and poverty than from radiation.
      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
  36. Re:what to do with 48T/yr of nuclear waste per pla by hunterx11 · · Score: 3, Insightful
    The only solution on the table right now is Yucca; only problem is, we're just extending the parameters of "bury a hole" and "be long gone when it becomes a problem." The stuff in Yucca mountain will be around for 100,000 years. There are serious problems with making stuff last that long, making signs that people will understand even 1,000 years from now, geological changes over just a few thousand years, etc.

    The problem is time. Radioactive material is radioactive--it decays into stable elements over time. The most radioactive elements will have decayed in less than a thousand years. Nothing is perfectly safe--crossing the street is a greater hazard to you than Yucca mountain will be to anyone. More on topic, spewing radioactive material into the air is probably a tad less safe than depositing it underground, too. And where do you think we get more stable forms of uranium in the first place? It's been in the ground all over the world for a lot longer than 100,000 years.

    --
    English is easier said than done.
  37. TFA is an argument from authority by FhnuZoag · · Score: 2, Insightful

    So really, the two things cancel out.

    The only reason we are expected to hear what this guy has to say is because he's advertised as an environmentalist, and primarily identified as the cofounder of greenpeace - I mean, go read the summary to see what is being emphasised. Undermine that, as the GP has done, and he becomes just another average Joe, and one who has little to say that hasn't been said, and who doesn't really have enough experience in the field to make professional judgements. If he believes his arguments can stand on their own two feet, then he shouldn't have misled about his allegiance in the first place.

    That said, I am personally ambivalent on the nuclear issue. I don't think there is alot of real information out there on what the full costs/benefits are - supporters and detractors seem to constantly give contradictory assertions, and there doesn't seem to be a strong scientific consensus on it.

  38. Doesn't have to be 48 tons/year. by Kadin2048 · · Score: 5, Informative

    That 48 tons of waste per plant per year could be greatly reduced with spent fuel reprocessing. Most other nuclear nations, including the UK and France, go this route, which is a lot more sensible than just burying everything, however due to some really boneheaded decisions made by President Carter, it's never been done recently in the United States.

    Until it was banned, we had a whole system under construction for reprocessing spent fuel that would have reduced the scope of the problem we're now faced with. However, in 1977 the research was cut off, and further development and implementation was banned; although President Reagan quietly reversed the ban, nobody has been willing to put money into it. Except of course the military, their ability to manufacture plutonium for weapons purposes was never affected, something which strikes me as endlessly ironic, given that Carter's justification for banning reprocessing was ostensibly to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.

    By processing the spent fuel assemblies promptly (before they sit around and create a lot of secondary contamination) you reduce the volume of waste that has to be stored for long periods, and you also get a non-trivial amount of new fuel back (even out of reactors that aren't specifically designed to breed new fuel). Either one of those goals would make the procedure worthwhile in my opinion, pick your favorite and count the other one as a bonus. Right now we're burying tons of waste which isn't itself that radioactive or long-lived or even toxic, but because it's physically joined to stuff that is. The actual volume of long-lived high-level waste produced by a plant isn't that much, if you do the right reprocessing first.

    The plan in the United States was a process called PUREX; you can Google it for more information. The French do their reprocessing at COGMA LaHague, and the Brits do it at a commercial facility called THORP.

    More information here as well:
    http://chemcases.com/nuclear/nc-13.htm

    --
    "Ladies and gentlemen, my killbot features Lotus Notes and a machine gun. It is the finest available."
    1. Re:Doesn't have to be 48 tons/year. by radio4fan · · Score: 2, Interesting
      and the Brits do it at a commercial facility called THORP

      Unfortunately, THORP is currently closed due to a large leak of radioactive material. It's now planned to be decommissioned (at the taxpayer's expense).

      In any case, the financial and environmental benefits were massively overstated, and -- like the rest of the UK nuclear power industry -- has turned out to be a huge white elephant.

      I'm in favour of nuclear power in principle, but in practice it has cost the UK taxpayer untold billions for little benefit.

      We should have just burnt the money and used that to generate the steam!

  39. Economics matters! by fortinbras47 · · Score: 2, Insightful
    I think a huge problem for the environmental movement has been that it has ignored economics, ignored costs, and been too quick to ask for heavy handed governt intervention. Sound economics and "conservative" (in American politics sense of the word) policies can be quite beneficial to the environment, such as allowing nuclear power plants. Just for kicks, I'll list a few examples:

    Problem: Too much sulfur dioxide is getting into the atmosphere.
    Leftist environmentalist solution: Require installation of scrubbers on powerplants when they are upgraded.
    What happens?: Powerplants don't upgrade their powerplants. Those that do upgrade then burn cheaper&dirtier coal leaving net pollution even worse.

    Conservative environmentalist solution: Implement pollution trading credits.
    What happens?: Pollution reduced in the most cost effective way.

    Problem: Power production is heavilly dependent on on fossil fuels... long term issue of global warming.
    Leftist environmentalist solution: Subsidize wind, solar, geothermal. Campaign against nuclear, hydropower dams, etc...
    What happens?: Power prices go up because wind, solar, and geothermal is massively expensive. Also, these alternative energy sources can't produce enough electricity and today we are more reliant on coal than we have been before.

    Conservative environmentalist solution: Implement a modest carbon tax and let the market sort the problem out.
    What happens?: Unclear because it hasn't been tried! Theory would predict a slow shift towards nuclear, and low carbon emitting technologies.

    Problem: A number of species in the United States are close to extinction.
    Leftist environmentalist solution: Ban all construction/anything ANYWHERE these species are found.
    What happens?: Developers/landowners have huge incentives to follow a policy of "Shoot, Shovel, and Shut-Up" If the federal government finds that a *insertspeciesnamehere* is living on your land, then your land will become worthless. Therefore, if you see a *insertspeciesnamehere* you shoot it, bury it, and don't tell anyone about it. (Don't think this doesn't happen.)

    Conservative environmentalist solution:
    Pay landowners some fee if *insertspeciesnamehere* is living on their land. They will then have an incentive not to kill it. Also, the government can try to buy the land from the landowner if it is critical habitat for the animal.
    What happens?: Species are protected and society as a WHOLE (not just a few unlucky landowners) is paying the cost of protecting the endagered species. This is a more effective and fair solution.

  40. Re:You can't really believe that? by electroniceric · · Score: 2, Insightful

    It's quite clear that we haven't gotten every last drop of the stuff out of the ground, nor will we ever. The problems are this. One, our current economic well-being is pretty closely tied to cheap energy, and much of our industrial infrastructure is built around oil. So the calm transitions you describe in the consumer space are in fact tremendously wrenching events over most of the economy, requiring an extraordinary amount of capital investment to retool a lot of things. The other area where you're being a little too sunny is _how_ the prices go up. If a political faction in Turkmenistan knocks out a major pipeline to Europe, world oil prices double overnight, and that decimates oh, say, 64% of the American airline industry, who happened to bet on modest price increases rather than stratospheric ones. You're probably right that oil won't go away, but even forced reductions in its use could be tremendously disruptive.

    As you might guess I happen to think the price of energy will in fact go up, and that oil price shocks are a real threat. I also think infrastructure changes and their corresponding investments take a long time, so we'd better get started early and not wait until the market obligates us to move quickly. We can mitigate both the threat of global warming and of oil shocks by having the government make it economically reasonable to plunk down some do-re-mi on a less oil-dependent infrastructure. I've been scoffed at countless times by conservatarian market "purists" who insist that the government can't possibly do something like this, but it's hard to argue away the obligation of good stewardship, both of the economy and of the environment.

  41. Actually safety technology HAS improved by fortinbras47 · · Score: 3, Informative
    You need to read about a pebble bed reactor. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pebble_bed_reactor or http://web.mit.edu/pebble-bed/ (if you don't trust wikipedia :P) Pebble bed reactors can be designed so that it is impossible for it to meltdown.

    Qouting Wikipedia: The primary advantage of a pebble bed reactor is that it can be designed to be inherently safe. As the reactor gets hotter, the rate of neutron capture by 238U increases, reducing the number of neutrons available to cause nuclear fission.

  42. mod article troll by sentientbrendan · · Score: 2, Interesting

    As many have pointed out, while Moore may once have been with greenpeace, he is no longer any sort of environmentalist. Currently he's working for the timber lobby among others and using his former title as founder of greenpeace to dupe people into thinking that he represents the environmentalist movement. A quick search for "Patrick Moore timber" on google will give you the real story.

    That said, I personally agree that nuclear power is the best option in most places in the world. It is certainly *not* the perfect option, but the technology has slowly but steadily improved over time, whereas the alternative, fossil fuels, have become more expensive and not a whole lot cleaner.

    Solar power has also improved greatly in efficiency over the years, but solar power is only viable in certain places. The same could be said of wind, geo thermal, and hydro power. They are great options where available... but nuclear power represents the only general purpose replacement for hydrocarbons.

    My state, Washington, is run almost entirely on hydro power, which provides us with cheap and reliable power. However, even with the large number of damable rivers, there's still excess need for power, which is split pretty evenly between coal and nuclear power. The thing is, that while nuclear is more environmentally friendly, and doesn't rise in cost with increasing fossil fuel prices, it still comes with its own problems. Additionally, cleaning up the hanford nuclear site has been a nightmare, especially for the people downwind... and the federal government has been remarkably slow to clean up the mess they made. This has done a lot to sour public perception of nuclear technology.

    If you are interested in nuclear power, hanford is important to consider. The site was of course used for developing weapons (enriching uranium specifically I believe...), but there's a lot to be learned from the cleanup effort... specifically, that it goes very slowly, and that the federal government pinches every dime they can in the effort. I think that the estimated end of the cleanup is sometime in 2030, not counting further delays... Considering that other messes are likely to happen with widespread enough nuclear power, no matter how careful we are, the slowness of federal cleanup efforts could really become a problem.

  43. Re:what to do with 48T/yr of nuclear waste per pla by splante · · Score: 5, Informative
    Hmm, because this says:
    High energy means a small volume of used fuel Every 12-24 months, U.S. plants are shut down and the oldest fuel assemblies are removed and replaced. All of the country's nuclear power plants together produce about 2,000 metric tons of used fuel annually. To put this in perspective, all the used fuel produced to date by the U.S. nuclear energy industry in more than 40 years of operation--some 40,000 metric tons--would cover an area the size of a football field to a depth of about five yards, if the fuel assemblies were stacked side by side and laid end to end.
    And anyway, the only reason the only solution the industry has right now is because Carter banned reprocessing of the used fuel.

    If we'd just get them going, Department of Energy laboratories could pretty much eliminate the problem, but anytime someone proposes doing that, who do you think blocks it? But then, if you let them create a way to eliminate the waste, you couldn't block nuclear plants by complaining there's nothing to do with the waste.

  44. Parent Post is Ad Hominem Attack & Blatantly f by fortinbras47 · · Score: 2, Informative
    The parent post asserts that Driessen is a paid oil industry lobbyist. NOWHERE in the Motherjones article does it say that. NOWHERE.

    The parent posts asserts that Driissen promotes junk science. Again, NOWHERE in the Motherjones article does it say that. NOWHERE.

    All the article says is that Driessen is a global warming skeptic, is critical of the environmentalist movement, and participants in events put on by conservative think tanks. It's hard to find anything nefarious or evil in that.

    Motherjones is a magazine of the political far left, but even it is honest enough not to say the factually incorrect statements svejk is attributing to it.

  45. Re: YARR KILLING IS MANLY!! by moultano · · Score: 2, Interesting
    Why is an owl more important than a logger's family?
    It is most likely very easy for the logger to find other work.
    Why is old-growth forest more important than a parking lot? ... Redwood forest? That shit would look really good as a new deck.
    Old growth forests are beautiful. They have the capacity to inspire. They smell like you wouldn't believe. There are other places much less valuable to society to build your parking lot, or to get the wood for your deck. Would you knock down St. Peter's to build a parking lot?
    Why are we worried about dolphins?
    A lot of people spend money to go on boat tours for the chance of seeing dolphins in the wild. This happens just about everywhere in the pacific that cruise ships stop. That should give you some indication that they valuable to society in general.
    Poverty in Africa? Fuck them! We have poverty in America.
    Apparantly you've never heard of diminishing returns. An investment in Africa could fulfill basic needs for an order of magnitude more people than the same investment in America. Some of us don't subscribe to the belief that American lives are worth more than others.
    Cows? Good for boots and steaks; and milk's ok too.
    I eat cow too, and go hiking in boots made of cow.

    In the rest of your points you seem to want to destroy things without getting anything useful out of them, so I'm going to assume you aren't trying to go anywhere with those.
  46. the problem is human pscyhology by circletimessquare · · Score: 2, Insightful

    it matters scientifically what the cause is in order to find the right antidote, that's true. but psychologically, the blame game is used to defer responsibility

    we all have the responsibility to put our hand on the global thermostat and start twiddling. whether its natural or unnatural that the earth is warming is besides the point. its warming. so lets fix that. it might be natural that the earth is warming up, but we like our ecosystems the way they are, so we're going to fight it. which means that mankind is probably going to preserve the earth's global temperature the way it is from 1500-2000 forever, even if naturally it would waver about, hot and cold. and so what?

    an asteroid heading towards earth is natural too. but that's not an argument for not deflecting the thing. same with global warming: who cares if its natural or unnatural. it's more important that it's bad, and that we need to fix it. we can apportion cost and blame later. the point is to not apportion blame first, and then do nothing about the problem based on that

    if the river is rising because the dam broke, well we better start slinging sand bags. we can find out later if the dam broke because someone dynamited it or it just broke on its own. but it does no good to say "that psycho fred dynamited the dam, so he should fix it!" and then sit back and watch our houses flood

    in other words: ok, there's global warming. why? natural processes? or the industrial revolution? well, we know that if we seed dead areas of the ocean with iron, we cause phytoplankton blooms that sequester tons of CO2. so we should do that, regardless of why the world is warming. get it?

    of course it still matters why, but we can start fixing the problem, since we all agree there is a problem, before we figure out why we have a problem. this is just being prudent, and having a set of priorities: fix the problem first, apportion blame later. not apportion blame first, and defer responsibility based on that

    simple common sense

    --
    intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
  47. Re:Water vapor is the main culprit in global warmi by nagora · · Score: 2, Informative
    Water vapour is an important magnifier but it is the rise in CO2 which triggers more evaporation, which increases h2O. The two are part of a vicious circle. As long as CO2, and other "minor" greenhouse gasses are pumped into the atmosphere there is no chance that the water vapour levels will stabilise.

    The whole H2O thing is just a distraction being pushed by big multi-nationals to try and confuse the issue and prevent them being reined.

    TWW

    --
    "Encyclopedia" is to "Wikipedia" what "Library" is to "Some people at a bus stop"
  48. So safe, the things run without a hitch! by RomulusNR · · Score: 2, Informative
    --
    Terrorists can attack freedom, but only Congress can destroy it.
  49. Re:Solar Future by MrSteveSD · · Score: 2, Insightful

    1. Not a chance solar panels in their current technology could meet 1% of our entire energy needs and. They could. It would just be too expensive. 2. Did you know what crap and environmentally unfriendly energy is required to make a solar panel :) Yes, that's why research is needed. Nuclear needs to keep us going for only 30-40 years before we works something else out Maybe nuclear is our only current option, but we should still invest massively in solar research now. Ask yourself why that isn't happening.

  50. Hubris == we understand plutonium by rickst29 · · Score: 2, Interesting
    Here's a delicious quote... not too long, I think, to show in full. From the 2006 edge.org question, "what is your dangerous idea", answer from Jeremy Bernstein:

    "The most dangerous idea I have come across recently is the idea that we understand plutonium. Plutonium is the most complex element in the periodic table. It has six different crystal phases between room temperature and its melting point. It can catch fire spontaneously in the presence of water vapor and if you inhale minuscule amounts you will die of lung cancer. It is the principle element in the "pits" that are the explosive cores of nuclear weapons. In these pits it is alloyed with gallium. No one knows why this works and no one can be sure how stable this alloy is. These pits, in the thousands, are now decades old. What is dangerous is the idea that they have retained their integrity and can be safely stored into the indefinite future."

    No nuclear power station has ever been fully decommissioned successfully. All of human civilization has a history of about 5000 years, and yet we imagine that we can successfully manage this incredibly deadly poison for thousands of years into the future. And, on the basis of barely 60 years, some so-called experts express "confidence" that there won't be enormous disasters, both accidental and intentional, in the future.

    Instead of huge taxpayer subsidies to make more Nukes, and continuing to never really clean them up afterwards, why not spend some research and pricing support $$$ to get solar panels as a standard roofing material on people's houses? (Or, at least stop building and re-roofing houses with black asphalt shingles in hot geographical regions.... an incredibly wasteful practice.)

    1. Re:Hubris == we understand plutonium by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 2, Insightful
      No nuclear power station has ever been fully decommissioned successfully.
      Prove this statement.
      All of human civilization has a history of about 5000 years, and yet we imagine that we can successfully manage this incredibly deadly poison for thousands of years into the future
      You offer no reason why such a feat would not be possible.
      And, on the basis of barely 60 years, some so-called experts express "confidence" that there won't be enormous disasters, both accidental and intentional, in the future.
      Yes, experts with more experience and knowledge than yourself. Who should we believe, people who actually have knowledge, or you who only has rhetoric.

      Outrage is not a substitute for knowledge and facts.
      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
  51. MOD PARENT DOWN by FhnuZoag · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Seriously. Is there a cabal of fanatically anti-GW mods in action, or something?

    Let's dissect this piece by piece.

    Isn't realclimate.org by the guy who fudged his analysis to generate the discredited "hockey-stick" graph of temperature predictions?

    Ad hominem attack. And wrong, because realclimate is a group blog, and the author in question has nothing to do with the hockey stick. And the hockey stick isn't discredited, except in the eyes of a certain small group of people who are often accused of fudging their own maths.

    Finally, its clear that there were concerns,[about a potential new ice age] perhaps quite strong, in the minds of a number of scientists of the time. And yet, the papers of the time present a clear consensus that future climate change could not be predicted with the knowledge then available.

    And then the page goes on to mention that the knowledge then available was in the absence of GW. i.e. scientists were considering that the Earth would be naturally cooling, if there wasn't a GW effect.

    [and present climate knowledge still does not allow reliable predictions]

    This line, or sentiment, isn't present in the article at all. It's a direct fallacy of inserting words into someone else's mouth.

    So are you attempting to say that: because the concern was not unanimous (it never is) and scientists believed further study was warranted (they always say that) that the concern about global cooling was not common among climate researchers? ... If press reports of the 1970s are not to be taken seriously, those of today regarding the nature and origins of climate change should also be viewed with healthy skepticism.

    No. The point being made by the article was that such concerns were not exhibited in peer reviewed journals. Climate change is. Popular press does not equal peer reviewed journals. Hence, a direct argument that the present situation is identical to that of 'global cooling' is false.

    And before some idiot mods this post as troll (like they did earlier to another of mine), can someone please justify precisely what information the parent offers that makes it so 'informative'?

    1. Re:MOD PARENT DOWN by tsm_sf · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Seriously. Is there a cabal of fanatically anti-GW mods in action, or something?

      No, it's just that the fanboy phenomenon isn't limited to Mac vs. PC. It's maddening, but you can't really blame them for not having access to a trustworthy news source. The S/BS ratio in our country sucks ass right now.

      --
      Literalism isn't a form of humor, it's you being irritating.
  52. Re:Stop the propaganda by bnenning · · Score: 3, Informative

    Nuclear power is not safe!

    Crossing the street is not safe. But often the benefits outweigh the risks.

    Please go tell how safe it is to the thousands of people affected by the Chernobyl accident.

    Chernobyl was a disaster for many reasons, most of which have no relevance to modern nuclear plants not run by Communist dictatorships. It is also instructive to look at the number of people killed in coal mining accidents.

    --
    How to solve most of our problems: 1.Lots of nuclear plants. 2.Cure aging.
  53. Oh blah by Julian+Morrison · · Score: 2, Funny

    Says the species who lives everywhere from the Arctic to the Sahara: "three degrees of warming will kill our civilization".

    And if you bought that one, I have some seafront land in Kansas going cheap...

  54. Re:ROTFLMFAO: Ludicrous article! by mla_anderson · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Yes TMI was a success.

    TMI illustrated that a nuclear plant can be designed to fail safely. Despite human error the plant shutdown safely, that is a success but a success by the designers not the operators. Stop spreading FUD about TMI and do some actual reading about it.

    --
    Sig is on vacation
  55. The Apocalypse by jazman_777 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The West has mostly left orthodox Christian belief, but it is still inherits the culture. Part of that is the need for Apocalypic End Time accounts. The Christians have Revelation, the rest have what lies to hand--the Environmentalists are happy to fill the need. Note: I am not making an argument for or against global warming, but just making a point about the apocalypic language surrounding it.

    --
    Slashdot: Failed Car Analogies. Amateur Lawyering. Anecdote Battles.
  56. Uranium supplies no constriction on bomb by Goonie · · Score: 2, Informative
    If I had a dollar for every time I heard this in the Australian political blogosphere, I'd be a rich man. Australia selling uranium to China (sales to India have not yet been approved) doesn't pose any additional proliferation risk, and, by discouraging reprocessing, may actually help reduce wider proliferation risks.

    As for passive solar, I'm all in favour, but there are several issues:

    • it's not enough
    • There's an enormous existing housing stock that will take many decades to rebuild.
    • Passive solar makes SFA difference in high-density living. Do you think 2+ billion Chinese and Indians will be living in American-style McMansions, or apartments?
    • Jevon's paradox. In this case, Americans spend their energy savings on bigger houses, negating the efficiency gains.

    As to your objections to nuclear, low-level waste is really a nonissue...the stuff is simply not that dangerous compared to the myriad other waste we dump into landfills or spray into the atmosphere. Compared to the thousands of lung cancers caused by radon annually, LLW is a piffling risk. High-level waste is the problem, if mostly a political one. See how Sweden is dealing with it.

    Finally, terrorism. Nuclear plants are a pretty tough target. How well defended is the Maroondah reservoir?

    --

    Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a rigged demo
    --Andy Finkel (J. Klass?)
  57. Those 4 unexplained hours? by LibertineR · · Score: 5, Funny
    If you run Windows, you spend it repairing your system in between gaming lockups.
    If you run Linux, you spend it masterbating and looking for more fuel for masterbation on the Internet until the the re-compile is done.
    If you run MacOS, you spend it bragging about running MacOS until Starbucks closes.
    If you run Solaris, you spend it looking for a job where you can still run Solaris.

    If you run none of the above, you spend it having a life, playing with your children, or humping your wife.

    I run Windows, but I'm getting a divorce, so I will soon be switching to Linux.

  58. Re:It is a rare thing to see anyone admit by An+Onerous+Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I'm all in favor of facts and balance in environmental questions as well. But when it comes to this particular commentator, I think you give Moore too much credit for conviction. It seems he turned his back on the entire environmental movement decades ago. Rather than being a case of a grizzled veteran of the environmental movement taking a hard look at the facts and coming to an uncomfortable conclusion, I think it's a case of a disgruntled ex-employee using his credentials to give his opinions more credibility than they warrant.

    The ANWR doesn't have enough oil in it to provide much aid for energy independence. I'm guessing the supporters of drilling fall into four camps: Exxon-Mobil, people who think there is fifty years of oil instead of one, people who want to piss off the hippies, and people who hate moose.

    I'm still ambivalent about nuclear energy. Probably safer and cleaner than coal, but anything that makes it easier to get nukes into the hands of crazy people is worrying.

    I want my glow-in-the-dark mutant carrots. I'm not really worried about the health effects of GMOs, but I do worry about the monocultures that arise from the hypermechanization of food production. It leaves us extremely vulnerable to disruptions in the food supply.

    Finally, I think that much of the anti-environmental movement come from similarly childish notions. In this case, it's the idea that the free market and human grit will overcome all, or that God Almighty gave us dominion over nature, or that we're too puny to have any real effects. There is too much religion on both sides.

    --

    You want the truthiness? You can't handle the truthiness!

  59. Please, let's not get all excited abou this! by Britz · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Unfortunately nuclear energy might be the only viable short term solution. There is no way China, Europe or the US will cut their energy consumption to reasonable levels (reasonable as in all the world's population could use the same lever per capita and the world would not melt or blow to pieces like Melmac when they all turned on their hair dryers at the same time). Sustainable energy sources like wind and water energy can't cover the demand. And coal and oil just add too much CO2 to the atmosphere. So we are left with no choice (until we get fusion, cold or hot) but fission.

    But please don't get all excited about it. There seem to be accidents in Japanese plants on a regular basis. Pebble reactors are fine, until you count in terrorism. Uranium is also a limited resource. We produce waste. And even if we refurbish the waste (and take care of the last two points) it still produces waste and it will still run out at some point.

    There are new studies coming out every month that either radiation from power plants does or does not make a difference in cancer rates. Until we have that figured out we are still in doubt about that one. So I count that as not being very excited about the prospect of nuclear energy.

    But you guys are right about one thing. People need to realize that nuclear energy IS the least worse choice out there now. I come from Germany and it is not possible to build power plants here for political reasons. Nobody will! This is rediculous.

  60. of course they do by r00t · · Score: 2, Insightful

    You don't get a research grant for saying everything is OK.

    You get one like this: "We're doomed. Everybody panic!"

    You get the second one like this: "Maybe we have a chance, if I do more research."

    1. Re:of course they do by de+Selby · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "You don't get a research grant for saying everything is OK."

      If all the scientists' complaints of censorship are any indication, you don't get much for saying things aren't OK.

  61. Breeder Reactors? by mosb1000 · · Score: 4, Informative

    "The only solution on the table right now is Yucca"

    Well, there's always the reprocessing route. If you use a breeder reactor and waste reprocessing fuel cycle, you can eliminate all of the high level, won't go away for thousands of years waste. Of course, you still have the "low level" waste, but that will go away after a few hundred years (maybe 500 or so to be safe). The great part is that they've figured out how to convert conventional PWR's and BWR's into breeders through advanced computer modeling, so there's no need for any new R&D. The only problem is that it's a lot more expensive than the once through fuel cycle. I guess you can have it clean, or you can have it cheap. Its cheaper and cleaner than coal anyway.

    Storing the high level waste isn't really as much as a problem as you think, either. 48 tons of nuclear waste may sound like a lot, but it's really only a few cubic meters. There are salt domes in new mexico that will probably be geologically stable for millions of years (look up the waste isolation pilot plant, WIPP). The only reason yucca mountain is at yucca mountain is politics, it's really a pretty bad location. At any rate, 48 tons of waste per year compares favorably to the hundreds of tones of waste generated daily by a coal plant, in my opinion.

  62. Patrick Moore is hardly an environmentalist by FredFnord · · Score: 2, Informative

    It's worth noting that, while Patrick Moore was indeed a significant part of the start of Greenpeace, he's basically been in the pocket of industry for ages. He's run a salmon farm and called claims that they pollute 'hogwash'. (They do, in fact, pollute.) He's been a front man for the lumber company involved in the deforestation of much of Canada for a long time. He was instrumental in persuading the Pew Charitable Trust not to 'waste its money' on funding environmental groups.

    He's the one who said "We found that the Amazon rainforest is more than 90 percent intact." Which is, of course, total bunk. He's basically a greenwasher now... someone who you hire who tells you how to make your industry look more green without actually changing your practices, or whom you hire to do damage control when your industry has just been exposed as a gross polluter, or in some cases even when your industry is about to get much worse and you don't want any flack from it.

    Moore's clients have included:
    B.C. Hazardous Waste Management Corporation
    BHP Minerals (Canada) Ltd. (To claim that dumping mine tailings in a river is not harmful.)
    National Association of Forest Industries (heavy loggers)
    Westcoast Energy and BC Gas (to play down global warming concerns)

    Some sources:
    http://www.fanweb.org/patrick-moore/liar.html
    http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Patrick _Moore

    My favorite quote:
    Trees and wood are both good! A world without forests is as unthinkable as a day without wood.

    Got wood?

    -fred

    --
    Sign #11 of Slashdot overdose: You see the phrase 'moderate Republican' and you wonder if that would be a +1 or a -1.
  63. No, it doesn't by Julian+Morrison · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Thinking about the future of the human race on this planet calls for long term planning.

    Nope. Not so. That would be entirely analogous to the 18th century folks trying to pre-plan the 20th century. Worse than useless!

    "Pushing the problem onto future generations" is exactly the correct strategy. It's like one of those computational problems that you can solve fastest by letting it alone for a few years while Moore's law catches up. Future techological problems are best solved with future technology - our best course is to attempt to reach that future as soon as possible. To which end, fuel the economy! Because economic growth is basically the wave-front that's pushing scientific growth.

  64. What do you mean "We"? by tlambert · · Score: 3, Insightful

    "The problem is that while technology advanced, we have not built new reactors to take advantage of it."

    By "We", I assume you mean the United States, since France and others have been using fast breeder reactors and fuel recycling that never results in weapons grade Plutonium at any point in the cycle, and reduces the actual long term waste to nearly nothing.

    The US has held itself back over its continuing collective guilt over ending WWII by using nuclear weapons on Japan. Japan, on the other hand, has 34% of it's electical power coming form 53 reactors, of which the majority are breeder reactors (generate their own plutonium for use as fuel in themselves and other reactors), so it seems they're a heck of a lot less fearful of it than the US is (the US only gets 10% of our electrical power from reactors). http://www.cscap.nuctrans.org/Nuc_Trans/locations/ japan/wna-japan.jpg

    -- Terry

    1. Re:What do you mean "We"? by Peter+Lake · · Score: 2, Informative

      Japan, on the other hand, has 34% of it's electical power coming form 53 reactors, of which the majority are breeder reactors (generate their own plutonium for use as fuel in themselves and other reactors), so it seems they're a heck of a lot less fearful of it than the US is

      And Japan has a great track record on nuclear safety!

      Arrests over Japan nuclear accident "The accident was caused by three workers at the plant who mixed excess amounts of liquefied uranium in steel buckets, setting off a nuclear chain reaction."
      Two were killed and over 600 exposed to radiation.

      Accident at Japan nuclear plant "At least four people have been killed in the deadliest accident to have hit a Japanese nuclear power plant."
      Five were killed.
      Kepco, which manages the Mihama plant, has admitted since the accident that it had not properly checked the pipe which burst, fatally scalding five workers, since it was installed in 1976.(here)

      Bosses quit in Japan nuclear scandal "Top executives at Japanese electricity producer Tepco are to quit, after the firm admitted possibly having falsified nuclear safety records."

      Blaze at Japanese nuclear plant "A fire has broken out at a nuclear plant in western Japan, injuring two people but causing no radiation leak, officials say."

      Japan court orders reactor closed "A court has ordered Japan's newest nuclear reactor to be shut down over fears about its safety in the event of an earthquake."

      Japan's shaky nuclear record

      But you're right, they *do* seem a heck of a lot less fearful of it - at least those guys mixing uranium in buckets! :)

      --

      All Rights Reversed.
  65. no, Saudia Arabia uses nuclear for desalination by r00t · · Score: 3, Informative

    Use fossil fuel? Hell no! It's better to sell that to the west.

    Saudia Arabia actually uses nuclear for desalination.

  66. Nuclear is not the Future by FinMacCool · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Solar, wind, hydroelectric, tide power, and other technologies _can_ take the place of nuclear and coal power.

    I see the future as one without nuclear waste and with decentralized power coming from safe and clean sources. Just because our houses today have high energy demands it does not mean that is how it has to be.

    What is wrong with more efficient heating and cooling combined with renewable sources for the future? To hear a bunch of techies debating nuclear technology as the energy source of the future is a little dissapointing.

    The author of the Washington Post article is also a spokesman for- drumroll please....the timber industry, the plastics industry, the Three Gorges dam, genetically modified foods [this guys karma is shot so why not shill for the nuclear industry while he is at it?!].

    "In an email, former Greenpeace director Paul Watson charges, "You're a corporate whore, Pat, an eco-Judas, a lowlife bottom-sucking parasite who has grown rich from sacrificing environmentalist principles for plain old money." http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.03/moore.htm l

    Ouch!

  67. Limited applicability:Carter is a nuclear engineer by Hartree · · Score: 2, Informative

    Because much like the Bush administration's restrictions on stem cell research is based on political reasons rather than engineering or science, the Carter administration's position was also based more on politics than science or engineering.

    There were groups that wanted it stopped due to opposition to nuclear power in general. There were also groups that wanted it stopped because they thought it was a proliferation risk. The civilian nuclear power industry didn't fight so strongly for it as it was looking to be expensive and it appeared to be easier just to deal with the waste problem later. i.e Kick the can down the road.

    I remember when the decision was made. I disagreed then as well. Unfortunately, the political conditions were such that it went ahead. I think it was quite a bad idea.

    The claim of shutting reprocessing down for proliferation reasons was questionable.

    Yes, being able to do the chemical separation is one part of making plutonium for bomb fuel. However, it's relatively difficult to get useable bomb fuel plutonium from reactor fuel that's been in a normal type power reactor. It has too much of Pu 240 and other higher weight isotopes of Pu. (What you want is relatively pure Pu 239.)

    Bomb fuel is made in a reactor specifically engineered to produce less of the higher weight isotopes of plutonium. Normal power reactors produce too much Pu 240.

    That makes the engineering for building a bomb out of it much tougher, since the core has to be crushed more quickly (due to large amount of spontaneous neutrons from Pu 240). The material is also much more dimensionally unstable. Pu is a weird metal in many ways and with the higher decay rate (and higher heat production) of the Pu 240, it changes phases and shape. Some of the dimensions of bomb cores are fairly tight tolerance.

    The British apparently had a program to make a plutonium bomb from Pu with a high level of heavier isotopes, but gave it up.

    This is why the US offered to build light water reactors for North Korea. It wasn't a major proliferation risk. The US reneged on it, but that's another sad tail of international relations.

    So, just having reprocessing plants is a bit less of a direct problem for proliferation than is often alleged, since the product of them (unless it came from a special reactor) isn't easy to use as bomb fuel.

    It's not that big a worry as far as nongovernment entities. It would be tough for even an advanced terrorist group to make use of the usual output material from a reprocessing plant.

    The indirect problem is that if a country has reprocessing plants already, it's harder to monitor that they aren't secretly setting up one of their reactors to make bomb fuel.

    So, that's the longwinded explanation of why I agree with the earlier poster that the Carter administration's decision was shortsighted.

    Just like I feel that the Clinton administration's decision to shut down research on the IFR was also a shortsighted payback to a political constituency. (The IFR was an advanced reactor that would have produced far less waste, and much shorter lived waste.)

  68. Terrorists?? by scsirob · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Pebble reactors are fine, until you count in terrorism.

    Just the fact that you mention this means that terrorists have already accomplished their goal. They try to make people terrified by stuff that *might* happen by having smaller events happen every now and then.

    --
    To Terminate, or not to Terminate, that's the question - SCSIROB
  69. Nuclear waste or electrical waste? by stephenlhicks · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Its outrageous that not once in Patrick Moore's article did he mention that we should be doing all we can to REDUCE the amount of electricity we use.

    Who has a huge inefficient fridge? Who has a 500 watt powersupply, a fat TV, bar radiators and central heating? Who leaves their computers on when they leave work, or even when they go to bed?!

    We need to stop looking for replacements for our massive appetite for power and use our brains to develop devices that are energy efficient. Nuclear power will only replace one environmental problem with another, the long term legacy of radioactive waste.


    "I may bend your precious airplane, but I'll get it down." Ted Striker
  70. Re:Solar Future by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 2, Informative

    Your information is way out of date (if it ever was true). PV is relatively clean and cost effective now, and per unit these advantages will only improve with increasing volume. We just don't need centralized nukes in the next few decades, propping up a nuclear industry with a history of lies, murder (Silkwood), and pollution, built on government subsidies for R&D and insurance, and initmately associated with WMD production.

    On scalability, PV solar systems work well especially when integrated with a system that gets some of its energy during cloudy or nighttime from cogeneration, which could be fueled using hydrogen made elsewhere by solar panels, or by biodiesel fuelds derived from farms, or from synthetic carbon based fuels (like synthetic propane) created from power from solar panels deployed in equatorial areas or the ocean. To see such an solar and cogeneration system working cost effectively in a major northern city, consider:
    http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/popup/hhtoronto/works.h tm
    "What is truly amazing is that CMHC's Healthy House in Toronto provides all the comforts of home - without using municipal services. It has been designed to rely on sun and precipitation as the basis of its heating, electrical, water and waste water management systems. And right from the start, the way it is built and the materials used in construction mean more comfort, less maintenance and lower operating costs. That goes for the landscaping, too. CMHC's Healthy House in Toronto is located near public transportation, and is designed to provide maximum usable space on a minimum amount of land, to limit air and water pollution, and to use locally available materials and durable renewable resources wherever possible. It is an affordable solution to housing now that will keep on working for many years to come."

    On pollution:
    http://greennature.com/article641.html
    "These differences, however, may not be particularly meaningful, according to Vasilis Fthenakis, a senior chemical engineer at Brookhaven National Laboratory who specializes in the potential environmental impacts of solar cells. "There are no significant environmental and safety hazards with any of [the types of solar cells] to the scale that they are manufactured today," he explains. And although there are some hazardous materials used, such as silane gas, cadmium, carbon tetrafluoride, and lead, he says, "if you look at the quantities in relation to their use in other industries, they are very, very small." But these risks will become more significant as the industry grows, he adds."

    Still, the fact remains that either we clean up all manufacturing towards zero emissions, or we will be burried in waste and pollution no matter what our energy source. R&D into all forms of low pollution manufacuring in the future will benefit PV.

    Overall they make sense right now compare to what we have:
    http://www.azom.com/details.asp?ArticleID=1119
    "An average U.S. household uses 830 kilowatt-hours of electricity per month. On average, producing 1000 kWh of electricity with solar power reduces emissions by nearly 8 pounds of sulfur dioxide, 5 pounds of nitrogen oxides, and more than 1,400 pounds of carbon dioxide. During its projected 28 years of clean energy production, a rooftop system with 2-year payback and meeting half of a household's electricity use would avoid conventional electrical plant emissions of more than half a ton of sulfur dioxide, one-third a ton of nitrogen oxides, and 100 tons of carbon dioxide. PV is clearly a wise energy investment with great environmental benefits!"

    And consider innovative approaches towards lifetime recycling of PV products:
    http://www.renewableenergyacc

    --
    A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
  71. In related news by Cargo+Cult+Islander · · Score: 2, Informative

    Greenpeace just issued a report made in collaboration with 40 ukranian, russian and white russian scientists where they claim that the estimated death toll from the Chernobyl accident has been extremely underestimated by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The IAEA estimated the total death toll to 4000 people. Greenpeace and the east european scientists estimated that 93,000 people died from Chernobyl related cancer cases. Added to that is the immense social costs from the forced relocation of 300,000 people from the local area.

    http://www.greenpeace.org/international/news/chern obyl-deaths-180406

    Now, I have a few questions.

    Why doesn't /. bring news from the anti-nuclear lobby and only news planted by the pro-nuclear lobby?

    How long are the /. crowd going to accept being tricked by the pro-nuclear power plant lobby? That industry have more money than M$. The last two years increased interest is a classic case of an industry manipulating the public opinion. Do the friendly Linux crowd accept to be manipulated by big business and slick spin doctors? Does anybody?

    And regarding the article: How do we remove the CO2 emissions from the mining, transport and processing of the nuclear fuel? In reality those emissions are so big that nuclear power plants only emits 30% as much CO2 as a traditional coal powered plant.

    Nuclear Power is a non-renewable power source. Why not just skip directly to investments in renewable power sources instead of relying on costly, risky, centralized Nuclear Power plants?

  72. Still no pragmatic discussion about nuclear here by MrKaos · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Why is it so difficult to have a pragmatic discussion about nuclear power on slashdot?

    Fesible nuclear technology like Integral Fast reactors, a proven and operational concept, and newer Sub critical reactor technology, like thorium based reactors are ignored in these discussions. These are the REAL nuclear alternatives.

    It seems to me that these discussions are heavily politicised in favour of the current generation of nuclear plants with no regard to the newer and safer nuclear technologies. Facts ignored, like the gross inefficiencies of the current generation of nuclear reactors, the production of Plutonium as a waste product and the amount of time those waste products are deadly for do nothing to promote an argument in favour of nuclear as an alternative. In particular the Half Life of those isotope's, before it becomes the next deadly element - with an even longer halflife in the millions or billions of years, are treated with a 'head in the sand' attitude that illustrates the ignorance prelavent in these discussions.

    Furthermore baseload arguments are used to write off wind and solar technology simply because solutions to these baseload issues, i.e Solar and Wind production of Hydrogen for example, have not been explored.

    Attacks on Green groups are made because they make arguments about 'Evil Corporations' (even though corporations are LEGALLY OBLIGED to externalise risk to protect shareholder interest), and while I have no interest in the emotional attachment some green groups have to their arguments, it's at least equivalent to the emotional attachment I see here wrt discussions about current nuclear technology.

    Which is to externalise the waste component of nuclear power generation to some other generation and just let them deal with it. How can anyone justify such short term thinking and claim it as a viable solutions to the worlds energy demands.

    I wonder how many of you in favour of nuclear power are prepared to put your own money into building a new concrete bunker over Chernobyl or your time lobbying your politicians into supporting contributions to same? How can anyone be expected to take nuclear seriously when the current mess still hasn't been cleaned up properly.

    Until a realistic look at newer nuclear technology that has better inherrent saftey is conducted, Chernobyl scale events should be expected to occur every few decades, and there is no way this can be considered 'Viable' or 'Environmentally Friendly'.

    --
    My ism, it's full of beliefs.