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PS3 Predicted to Lead Market Through 2011
eldavojohn writes "The Yankee Group (a Boston Technology firm) recently announced that it predicts Sony's PS3 to lead the market with a 44% share through 2011. Most interesting is their prediction that the Wii will maintain only 16% of the market share. From the article: 'The analyst group believes Sony will lead in next-gen market share by 44% in 2011, with Xbox 360 taking a close 40% share, followed by Wii with a wee little bitty 16% share.'"
I hereby predict that the Xbox 360 will have 100% market share of the "Next-Gen" market through September.
Microsoft, can I have my check now?
It's a survey by the Yankee group, so it must be Microsoft.
Wait a minute... wasn't the PS3 from Microsoft's compeditor?
Well, it's been a fun ride Nintendo and Microsoft. They will be missed. PS3 is the bomb, it's now official. In order to stay cool, I will have to get the PS3 for all the neighborhood 8 year olds to ogle me.
My own prediction was that Wii will kick ass, at least in terms of units and games sold. But I suppose if a PS3 costs the same as 3-5 Wii's, Nintendo would have to sell 3-5 for every 1 PS3 to match their market share by the Yankee group's measure. Sort of like how Linux has a very low market share when measured by operating system license revenue.
Nintendo is dying.
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The "article" is pretty light on details. My guess is that they are looking to the past to forecast the future. While not a bad strategy I can't see that leading to much accuracy in the current scenario.
In the past, the PS2 was in a class by itself (after destroying the Dreamcast). For a long time it was THE console to have, and by the time the others (GC and XBox) came into play it was too well entrenched and had a huge library of games.
Now it will be competing with the XBox 360 (say what you want about it, but at least it's out already) and a newly released Wii. Unless there's a lot more going on than I'm aware of, I can't see how it will dominate for the next 5 years when:
- it's entering a market already saturated with similar hardware specs (even if slightly weaker)
- price entry
Had they beaten the 360 and Wii to market, then I could see it. But this isn't the past.
Well, there we go. Proof that those so-called "expert/analysts" don't know anything aside from making shocking statistics to grab headlines.
I predict about 70% for the Wii, 30% for the Xbox 360 and 15% for the PS3. I know it adds up to more than 100% but given all those "Xbox 360 + Wii = PS3" comments we've all heard so far, I think it's realistic.
As for the Wii getting 70%? Well, don't forget that we can look at the Nintendo DS for proof: Nintendo are grabbing a lot of non-gamers and the Wii shouldn't be any different. A lot of so-called "hardcore gamers" will go for the Xbox 360 and/or the PS3, but they're only a tiny % of the general population.
It doesn't look like they're taking cost or popular opinion into account.
Wii: $199, with hopefully revolutionary must-have controller mechanism.
Controller fad might die off, but it will still be fun to use. Lots of games.
Weaker hardware allows cheap cost. Price is at the point where you can pick it up without thinking if theres a game that appeals. Free online play. Ideal christmas present for children too - cheap, and ideal for secondary TVs in the house rather than the main HDTV.
360: $299 - $399
PS£: $499 - $599
Both of these are 'stop and think' purchases for anyone. You really have to justify the purchase.
Of course, the price will come down over time for both of these - the PS3 will drop quite drastically once BluRay drives become cheaper to make, say around 2008. There'll probably be price parity by the end of 2008, Microsoft might have moved to HD-DVD inside the console. The Wii will be cheaper too, and fun games can spread like a fever like Guitar Hero has in my circle of friends. And Nintendo is popular because of the DS.
At a time when people are tightening their purses and wallets because of higher cost of living, a high priced console is not the ideal product. Some games might be so 'must have' that a lot of consoles will sell, but I really do think that it will be 40-30-30 this time around - which wins is in the air right now.
Nevermind that Sony is not popular right now, and can't do anything right.
Um, high prices, yet PS3 will dominate? MS will undercut PS3? What about Wii?
Honestly, these numbers are suspect just due to lack of any real data points. The Wii is not the gamecube. The PS3 is not the PS2. And the Xbox360 does not equate to Xbox. The variable are different this time around.
Personally, the Wii is the first console I'm planning on buying since the Playstation 1, and it's the 1st one I am hoping to spend a decent amount playing since SNES (I only ended up owning 3-4 PS 1 games, got it more out of habit than actual want and dropped out of gaming since).
I think the Wii will wipe the floor with either. Graphics, at the level they are at, have ceased to be the most important factor to me, unlike 10 years back. Now it's all about fun.
This post probably will be only echoing a point a million others have already and will make, but isn't that evidence in itself?
I, along with my respected technology firm of Dewey, Cheatem, and Howe, and Dionne Warwick's psychic friends, combined with enough Magic Eight Balls to count up to 480, do hereby predict that the Virtual Boy will make a major comeback and obtain 67% of the market. Following by a close second with 54% will be a Tiger Handheld LCD version of The Lion King, with the remaining 32% playing with some sticks and gravel they found on the ground.
Please send the usual large bags of moneys for my business-analyisisting fees to my Summerhouse in the Hamptons, will you? thx.
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That is if PS3 does ever make it out by 2011.
Now tell me, can you get THAT on your 360? I didn't think so.
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While the nerd crowd here can look at the Wii (uh, that name...) and be pleased with the innovative interface, the low price, the focus on gameplay over graphics and yes, substance... this isn't how the marketing will flow.
Sony will drive dumptrucks of money to ad agencies all over the planet. It will be like a blitzkrieg of PS3 as we approach the launch; I wouldn't be surprised if they spent $100 million on ads alone. Microsoft will counter, having anticipated this for years, and probably roll out their own add-on HD drive as well - more marketing insanity to follow.
Nintendo will of course do their own marketing push, but don't be surprised if you hate the approach they take. Big N is after 'the rest of us', the non-gamer, and will appropriately tailor their messaging to this end. That means, more girls, more moms, more people who do not typically play video games. Yes, there will be Metroid and a few others to keep the original fans happy. But it will not be the juggernaut that Sony and MS will unleash. Its just not the same market anymore.
I like the Wii but I think that this go-round they only have a shot at 2nd place, at best. The videogame market has eclipsed the filmmaking industry for several years now, and the people who put it there are you guys, buying the kind of games you like. That's where most of the money is. Nintendo is gambling big time with this new machine; they want to create a new segment of the market, sort of like the iPod did. Good for them. But this is a risky strategy. Sony and Microsoft are taking the safe route, MS the safest of all.
It may not make for great headlines to the crusty gamer crowd here who appreciates Nintendo's willingness to break the mold, but for general 'consumption' I acutally tend to agree with the market analysis of FTA. For different reasons than they stated.
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That's all this is on Slashdot considering how Nintendo heavy the fans are around here. If you just read here, you would have to assume the only console people will buy is the Wii. It will be really insteresting to see how the 3 compete this year. It surely won't be 70% wii as Mr. fanboy posted up earlier...but Nintendo at has a decent chance this time around to be competitive as far as sales go (we all know they will be the most profitable). I really don't care who wins. Competition is a good thing because it forces companies to innovate, increase quality, or reduce prices. People who want Nintendo to destroy the competition are morons. With no competition their next console could be like the VirtualBoy. I hope all the companies do well and continue to bring us better things at a competitive price.
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Slashdot has run a number of articles about analysts predicting this or that console manufacture will sell X or Y million machines in the next generation, so to help us sort through the archives more efficiently, I propose that we all use the same tag to mark these stories for quick searching.
The tag?
"Bullshit".
should read "PS2 to lead through 2011". That is my armchair prediction anyway. Microsoft has a nice niche market for themselves but cannot seem to grow. Nintendo will carve out a potentially bigger niche, and Sony will shoot themselves in the foot, but honestly I don't think that any of the next gens will reach anywhere near the market penetration of the playstation 2.
Monstar L
PS3 will lead the market and the Phantom will be released. Duke Nukem Forever will be completed. Hell will freeze over, pigs will fly and I'll say ye haw!
Nintendo had the long lines at E3 to try out the Wii-mote. We've all seen the videos of everyone playing with it and saying it was cool, fun, etc. Unlike yourself, there seemed to be far MORE people "want[ing] to wave that around" than there were to wanting to play 360 or PS3 demos.
You sir are incorrect.
I'm a gamer and the Wiimote to me seems kind of a turn off. Don't really want it, but then I remember going "wow that touch screen is going to be so useless". Now I have to say I love my DS and the dual screens is insanely useful. The Wii will do the same, they'll have a rough start but people will soon get the hand of it and see how it should be used and then we'll open up entirely new genres, give us stuff we've always dreamed of (light saber fights are a hit with everyone).
So what is "I'm so hardcore I must have one of every console" doesn't dig the Wii. Thre are other options for them, but the Wii is going to be just like the gamecube as far as I can see. It won't be "teh uber popular" it won't be the strongest, but when you just want some fun and games you'll turn it on and get exactly what it said on the box.
As for the FPS comment.. Well when the hell did a console do FPS well? (STFU Halo fans before you even start). PCs are always better than consoles at FPS and RTS because they were more or less designed for their unique controls.
On the other hand think of playing something like Bushido blade with the Wii or a Zombie invasion style game where you have to fight off zombies as you escape the city or whatever.
Oh and are you forgetting the gamecube controller plugs straight into the Wiimote so we can play the "classic" style games at the same time?
I like muppets.
Wasn't Laura Didio from the Yankee Group? Any followers of Groklaw will remember their input on the SCO vs. IBM case. Didio thought that SCO would win. Ha!
:-) Of course, given how low anyone's expectations are for that thing at this point, one would think that it'd have to be at least possible for it to "exceed expectations" somehow; I just won't buy one no matter what [1] and I doubt it'll be that great.
In other words, I wouldn't take their predictions too seriously. Given the news we've seen lately, and the fact that I hate Sony, I really want the PS3 to tank, anyhow
[1] Like I said, I'm pissed at Sony. Seriously, I'm still about as mad as if they'd run over my dog. Even being a long time fan of Final Fantasy, there's no damn way in hell I'll buy their console, and only a complete and thorough change in company policy and behavior would make me stop boycotting their products.
Look at Nintendo's dominance of the handheld market in Japan (and the world). Look at Nintendo's appraoch to maketing games to literally every demographic from toddlers to the elderly. Look at all the interest being generated about the Wii (E3). Look at the price differences between the new consoles and Nintendo's. They're taking a very different approach to a next generation system, we can't reliably use past performance to guage what will happen. Especially that far in the future.
i.e.
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so with this article, can i infer that i'll get a raise and actually be able to afford a PS3, thus leading to it's market dominance? sweet!
Just an FYI, Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles is coming to the Wii. So you don't need to plunk down mega-$$$ to rehash the same old FF on Sony's PS3.
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Perhaps he knows that Sony-bashing will ensue? Sony could actually win the console war AND the HD format war and we here at /. would still collectively trash-talk them.
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to have an extremely profitable console platform that they release most of the A-List titles on. Sega tried this with the Saturn. They ignored developers (actually, they treated them like dirt) and pushed their first party titles to the detriment of 3rd party (in the States, this didn't happen in Japan). It killed the console. Nintendo pulled if off though. To be fair, they didn't do it by being jerks to their 3rd parties, they just can't get too many A-List 3rd parties since there's not enough room to manuever in the Gamecube's install base. Still, the Big N doesn't really care about raw market share, because they can be pretty damn sure that all or most of that 16 percent will buy their software. Sega wanted that, and I guess they got it, but the videogame market was smaller and their share closer to 2% or 3% by the time all was said and done.
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the real money is in hardcore gamers
You have no idea what you're talking about, do you? I'm sure it'll make your head hurt, but let's do some math.
Given conditions:
- In a population (P), let's make a liberal estimate of 1% "hardcore" 39% "casual" and 60% non-gamers.
- A console's lifetime is 5 years.
- "Hardcore" gamers buy 5 games a year.
- "Casual" gamers buy 1 game a year (this accounts for the fact that they're likely to buy 2 or 3 games for the first 2 years and none after that).
- Non-gamers will buy nothing.
- A game console costs $X.
- A game costs $Y.
Over the course of the lifespan of a given console:
- A hardcore gamer will bring in $Y + 25X.
- A casual gamer will bring in $Y + 5X.
- A non-gamer will bring in $0.
Now applying this to a population of 100:
- "Hardcore" gamers bring in $Y + 25X
- "Casual" gamers bring in $39Y + 195X
Now for a population of 1,000,000:
- "Hardcore": $1000Y + 25,000X
- "Casual": $390,000Y + 1,950,000X
It's pretty clear with these numbers (admittedly, they came straight from my ass), that the "hardcore gamer" crowd is worth nothing when compared to the awesome crowds of the unwashed masses. Nintendo is aiming specifically at these "casual" gamers. You mention that "mom and pop may buy a Wii and [1 or 2] games" and that "the average Xbox360 owner already has [4 or 5] games", but what you're missing is that "mom and pop" outnumber "the average Xbox360 owner" by 200:1 or more. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that Nintendo doesn't need hype to sell their console, and that PS and Xbox fanbois need to get used to being the minority. Hey, us Nintendo fanboys had to grow up, now you do too.
Spoken like a man who hasn't investigated the Wii at all.
The Wii remote will be a fad - who honestly wants to wave that around: Yeah, it really looks like he's really waving it around. Oh wait, it's small wrist movements which controls the action, not huge motions.
good luck using it in FPS games: Yeah, nobody liked the controls on Metroid Prime 3.
Whether or not you like it, marketing and hype is what sells consoles. I don't see any Wii hype anywhere but on Digg and Slashdot. Sorry.: Where's the PS3 hype? I see nothing in mainstream media and nothing but negativity from the online media. Where's the X360 hype? I haven't seen any since their launch a year ago. I also haven't seen any compelling reason to buy an Xbox 360 aside from maybe Xbox Live Arcade games (which I played 10 years ago)
Mario sux0rs to me - but Mom or the kid next door can have fun with it if they want: I'm honestly very sorry that you have a complex which prevents you from enjoying video games which are fun because you're afraid they are too "kiddy". If it's any consolation, you'll grow out of that once you graduate 9th grade.
Then again, I guess I shouldn't expect too much out of a user named "XpL1CiT". Have fun in High School kid.
I predict PS3 will only get 43%, not 44. I based this on some research and stuff.
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I'm an analyst and I say the NEO GEO is making a comeback!
Apparently the first three words of the previous sentence give me unlimited credibility!
SNK Playmore, where's my check?
Who is anyone to say that anything will lead any marked for that amount of time? That is quite an arrogant boast IMHO. Whoever made such claims has balls.
I think market share is a silly metric in some ways. Nintendo is the most profitable of all the game companies for the the last several years, despite market share. This is because they dont take a loss on hardware, have tons of highly profitable in house titles, and dont blow billions on marketing. Sony plans on loosing about $1 Billion dollars launching the PS3, and I think Microsoft lost more then that. Who cares about market share, isnt there end goal to turn a profit? Show me the breakdown on profits per system over the next 5 years please.
Just based on my own experience with a large number of gaming friends, the Wii will probably sell like crazy. The gamers I know fall into two groups (1) Plays tons of games for hours at a time (2) Casual gamers that just occassionally want to have fun.
My Group 1 friends own all systems. They have a PC, PSP, a DS Lite, a 360 and a PS2. Interestingly enough, the DS Lite gets the most play it seems (if you discount WOW on the PC that is).
Group 2 friends all universely have a PC, and an X-Box or a PS2 (not both), and most have a DS Lite. Withought exception they plan on getting a Wii, and remain uninterested in PS3 and Xbox 360.
When you consider the number of people who arent hardcore gamers, which system is going to be more popular? The system that appeals to only the hardcore, or the system with broadbased appeal? Maybe systems like the 360 and PS3 are destined to be niche devices for the hardcore gamer, and platforms with broadbased appeal will become more common? Unlikely, but certainly a strong argument against the skewed numbers in the article.
That might be because the SNES generation of systems were the first systems to have good graphics. They couldn't do photo realistic, or fantastic 3D, but I believe that many games had graphics that looked just like the developer wanted them to. Everything after that was no longer a matter of making the graphics look good, but making the graphics look more realistic, and moving from 2D to 3D.
After the games looked good, a new kind of gammer entered the market. The old school gamers that were more concerned with gameplay than graphics (because there were no good graphics) started getting out numbered by the new gamers that were more concerned with graphics than play. Once this tip happened, the developers started looking at numbers and saw that games with good graphics sold more, and good gameplay didn't affect sales in a significan enough way to matter. After all, good gameplay takes a lot of time and talent. Then when you are done, you still will be taking a gamble on whether you have succeded or not. Good graphics are a much easier defined characteristic, and it is a whole lot easier to find a good 3D artist than it is to find a good game designer.
Basically video games have become a victim of their own success.
Not to mention those that bought PSPs and swore, after the 4th cripple patch, never to buy another sony gaming product no matter the cost.
OK, I'll admit it. I paid for the survey. It's a long story...
My other computer is a Jacquard loom.
So, I've never ever in my life played either a playstation, an Xbox, or anything similar in the way of gaming. I am not a market analyst, nor a gaming expert, and am not being paid by Sony or any other vested interest - as I strongly suspect the Yankee group may be...
However, despite my total lack of interest in gaming for the past 20 years, the Wii has caught my eye. I want one. The name is silly, but even so, it actually looks FUN! If it actually delivers as much as it promises then they will soar.
There's a whole non-gamer gaming market out there - just like me. Even girls would buy one if they do an OMG Ponies!!!1!! game (and they should).
If I want one so will others. Don't listen to the Sony and MS shills!
Yeah...I know... never touched a game...I'll be handing in my Geek ID card at the end of the article.
Don't forget Nethack.
It's also an attack against Microsoft's bottom line. What if the average Joe/jane figures out that they can do the things they want to do on a computer on the PS3. If little bobby wants to do is homework while Mom & Dad are doing whatever they can just point little bobby to his PS3. or vice versa. Thus reducing the demand for multiple Wintel machines in a household, thus cutting into Microsoft's profits.
Did anyone have to dial a 1-900 number for that prediction? The world was once predicted to be flat, and people once thought Sony was cool.
I'm sure it will gain market share, but it's going to start off flat. After the first price break (they'll need many)they'll get a decent boost. After Blu-Ray follows UMD, Sony stock will go up... in smoke.
See, anyone can make predictions! The Xbox 360 has some potential to escape the bad press that usually follows M$ around. The Wii is innovative enough to really blow some minds. It's either going to do really well, or fall flat.
Personally, I've owned the PS2, Gamecube, and the Xbox. I gave away my PS2 and still have the other two systems to compete with each other. Ninja Gaiden was the last thing I played on the Xbox, and I wish there had been a Gamecube version.
PS: That is what part of the alphabet would look like if the letters "Q" and "R" were removed.
Marketting survey's are so irrelivant right now. The Wii is just such a huge wildcard, it's virtually impossible to predict what's going to transpire in the first 3 months after console release, and even harder to predict what the market will be like after the first year. No other generation launch can top this one for pure strangeness and unexpected variables. Two consoles are slated to be launched within the same month, as well as a metric ton of best selling game series (Zelda, Metroid, Final Fantasy XII, among others)... this alone has never happened before. Probably the closest console launch I've seen to date was between the GameCube and the XBox which were, what, 6 months apart? The turbulance that will insue from such drastically apposing marketting models during that month will be the most interesting to watch since the dawn of the mass market video game, itself. Any number of unexpected situations may arise:
Now, I think it's unlikely that the PS3 is going to see groundbreaking success (which is really what it needs to combat a fully functioning Microsoft and a groundbreaking Nintendo), I do think that Sony's chances of doing well in this generation are pretty slim, but you never know. And as I said, the turmoil caused by the first few months of two consoles being released virtually similtaniously is going to be hard to predict.
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Do you really think this represents a significant portion of those who've purchased PSPs? I'm no Sony fan by any means, but that's insane. Moders and homebrewers represent a fringe group. To make it out to be otherwise is just silly.
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