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PS3 Missed Ship Targets, Loses Exclusives
Sony's having a rough week. After shootings on launch day and a harsh review from the New York Times, Bloomberg is now calling Sony out as having completely missed its shipping targets. The analyst company says there may have been as few as 50% of aimed-for units available, and that the company may only get about 200,000 units to stores by the end of the year (something Sony flatly denies). PS3 fans now also have to deal with the fact that Koei is cross-platforming two previously exclusive titles. Fatal Inertia and Bladestorm are now in development for the 360 as well, marking the latest in a string of titles that have slipped away from Sony. There is some consolation for the company to take away from this week, though. They did better than Microsoft last week in Japan, with around 81,000 PS3s, 19,000 PSPs, and 16,000 PS2s sold to a mere 4,000 Xbox 360s and ... 4 Xboxes.
I was just in the Sony Style store at 550 Madison Avenue (Sony's US headquarters) and they were selling PS3s. There was a line of about 15 people (ok, men) at the checkout, which is highly unusual in my experience (I shop there regularly) and the staff behind the desk had some PS3s sitting on the floor ready to be handed over. The boxes go out in a distinctive black bag with PS3 graphics on it.
If I'm correct the original PS3 was set to be built without the BluRay.
I'm willing to bet that is the root their delays.
At some point some marketing exec sat down at a global strategy meeting and predicted that to make BluRay work they would need to inject using their most popular gadget.
Won't it suck for that exec if it turns out BluRay killed the PlayStation...or at least crippled it regardless of majority share of the market.
"No doubt one may quote history to support any cause, as the devil quotes scripture." - Learned Hand
I'm not usually a Sony doomsday prophet, but if something can kill the PS3, it's this. They need their RPGs. They need Koei and Squeenix. If those juggernauts start to slip away, then Sony is in big, big trouble. Most switches will lean in the 360 direction because of comparable specs and input mechanisms. If the exodus reaches some sort of critical mass, where companies don't believe that the PS3 will sell anymore, that whole situation might end very badly for Sony, and very well for MS and, to a lesser extent, Nintendo.
Sony is dying.
Same troll, new generation.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
You mean like the iPod?
Please, this constant repetition that the Japanese are xenophobic when it comes to electronics is terrifically boring, and worse, counter-productive. It's as bad as the auto makers who blame xenophobia for why they aren't able to sell the Chrysler Neon in Japan.
At this stage in the game, who is buying a NEW Xbox? You couldn't find a used one or hit up Ebay? I need to find one of these 4 people. I have a nice 486 with a Turbo button that they might find appealing.
-Now I may be an idiot, but there is one thing I am not sir, and that, sir, is an idiot.
Don't get ahead of yourself; Netcraft hasn't confirmed it.
Reality has a conservative bias: it conserves mass, energy, momentum...
http://www.the-magicbox.com/topten.htm
For 2006 through the end of October, 84,949 360s sold in Japan. 81,639 PS3s sold at launch.
From what I can find, there were 100K 360s sold in Japan in 2005.
So it looks like somewhere around 190K 360s vs 82K PS3s in Japan currently with Microsoft's 1 year head start.
Value Japanese sales in the greater scheme of things as you please.
"PS3 Missed Ship Targets" the convoy must have made it safely across the channel then.
Why did the chicken cross the road? Because Elon Musk put an AI chip in its head.
So, is this only the second time you've posted this exact comment, or have I missed others?
I'd accuse you of karma whoring, but people normally log in for that.
Reality has a conservative bias: it conserves mass, energy, momentum...
Actually, I'd say it's quite the opposite. I would fully expect 360 sales numbers in Japan to be lower than usual because of Blue Dragon. It makes sense and here's why.
We know that there's surprisingly a lot of interest in the Blue Dragon 360 bundle, set to release in December. It also recently took over the #3 spot on Famitsu's list of most anticipated titles. So, if you know there's a bundle coming out in December, why on earth would you buy a 360 now? It's akin to buying a system when you know a price drop is going to happen in a few weeks.
The numbers will be most interesting a week after the game and bundle launches. (The week it actually ships will see an artificial bump of 360 sales, similar to the PS3 one. I fully expect, "wowzers, 360>PS3 lolololezr" articles then as well) Then we can start tracking trends to see if MS will actually have a chance in Japan, or if it's going to be more of the same.
-- jchenx
This is an excellent question, and I can only assume the answer is one of two things:
1. For some reason, gaming site users have an insatiable appetite for fuel to the "console war" fire, perhaps with little regard for the accuracy of said fuel.
2. See #1.
Imagine what the world might accomplish if the energy we put into worrying about which console was teh winnar was put into, oh, say, discussing what operating system sucks the mostest.
- Poor backward compatilibity with PS1 and PS2 games
- Numerous high def upscaling issues including PS3 BluRay movies not appearing in high definition properly
Both of which are most likely fixable through firmware upgrades. Especially the compatibility which is supposed to be fixed in short order.
- Poor graphics on side to side game comparison tests
- Poor framerates and "tearing" reported on multiple game titles, including Tony Hawk and Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire
I say this a lot. Maybe I should make it my sig. Launch titles suck. Always. It's a fact of life. These games are not representative of the system. Play Kileak for the PS1 and Evergrace for the PS2 and get back to me.
- Poor buggy development tools which make development very hard as compared to other current gen systems
- Multiple launch titles cancelled or delayed due to development issues
When the PS2 was in development the developers of Oddworld were working on the third game for the PS2 when they suddenly announced that they were switching to an XBox exclusive because the PS2 was too hard to code for. This of course sent the game media into a frenzy. And look at where we are now.
And finally the losses-per-system articles all use fuzzy numbers. Many of these devices are patented and manufactured by Sony themselves and nobody outside of Sony knows exactly how much it costs Sony to manufacture said device. Microsoft on the other hand mainly assembles their systems based on parts that they have to buy. I'm not saying the 360 costs more to build than the PS3, I am merely saying that you me and whoever iSuppli are don't know how much they really DO cost.
Me, I'm going to play the waiting game to see who comes out on top. But while Sony certainly has screwed this up I don't see any real indicators yet that they are going to lose.
A small number maybe, but Sony are also undoubtedly losing out on the import markets. After they recently shut down Lik-Sang.com and got importing PS3's to the UK and a number of other countries banned by law they will have surely shut out a sector of the market of those who are the most hardcore gamers and cannot wait for their consoles (with the European and Australasia launch coming in March 2007 due to lack of Blu-Ray components). It's a shame they had to go to these lengths, which would be understandable if they had have had a global launch date, but leaving some countries without the console for a number of months isn't the best idea, and by blocking imports to those countries they are only loosing more sales and aggravating consumers.
I have a feeling that Sony will need to start giving incentives or at least making it a desirable environment for developers in order to create some games that will become a MUST for the console buyers (like Halo for Xbox, Gears of War/Halo 3 for Xbox360, Mario for N64 etc) if they want to really compete with the low priced Wii and the 360 which is flaunting it's powerful internet features now.
Business Voyeur
The interesting thing is that if all the numbers are true (or even close), that means that over 10% of all PS3s purchased were resold on eBay -- maybe higher. Don't know why, but that's funny to me.
Granted it bucks the trend, but the DS Lite has been selling over 100,000 units per week in Japan since Nintendo has been able to make over 100,000 systems per week for Japan.
Fuck you, BSD is better than Nintendo and you know it!
And the PS3 controllers have a way better button layout than an Apple mouse. So much for cupertino's vaunted user friendliness.
One time I threw a brick at a duck.
One thing a shortage can do is enable a company to be delusional about the demand for the product that they're selling. I'm going to use cars as my example ...
...
Suppose that this year GM produced a brand new supercharged luxury compact sedan which they sold for $50,000 that was based on the Cobalt; and suppose that GM only produced 25,000 of these cars that sold out (almost) instantly. A marketing drone in GM suddenly believes that there is a massive market for this car and decides that it is important to increase production to 1,000,000 for the next model year; in that model year the company sells 125,000 before they begin (drastically) reducing the price in order to move the excess inventory.
125,000 units would have been a respectable number of cars to sell in a model year but being that 875,000 went unsold it would be remembered as a failure (and the model would be discontinued).
Now, I'm not saying that this will happen to Sony, but 6 months down the line (when the supply of units meets the demand for the units) Sony could be thinking that they have the next big product on their hands where they really had a dud
Your selfless concern is touching.
Not a refutation, but a mitigating point, to be sure. Each new console has issues that will be corrected with firmware updates. This is a good thing.
Ok I'll bite:
About 98% of previous titles play just fine. Some have sync issues with FMV sequences, which do not affect gameplay (and yes, will be fixed). This is not 'poor compatibility'. Go check Sony's game database if you like, they have a tool for this.
Again, disingenuous. Some older model HDTVs don't do 720p, and there is an issue with that particular resolution on those particular sets. And fixable. Considering the very small installed base of total HDTVs, this strikes me as a fairly minor problem (although irritating to be sure). And that is the only problem, not 'numerous'.
I agree. Both the Wii and PS3 online capabilities are inferior to Microsoft's network.
While I agree that the high-end SKU bundle should have included these, you surely must agree that most people would end up throwing this cable away. Nintendo doesn't even think you need to buy one from a store. (Or at all, until December.)
For that game. Talk about intellectually dishonest, you act like its an exhaustive comparison.
Yeah, maybe. Had some slowdown on Gears of War, too. Tony Hawk, being a cross-platform franchise, perhaps had the least amount of time for a PS3 port. Gundam just plain sucks. But point taken.
Remind me again, why do we care what Nolan Bushnell thinks of the PS3 dev environment?
Remind me again, why do WE care about the dev environment? How is that warning consumers of the dangers of the PS3?
Scrapin' the bottom of the barrel, here. Newsflash: software doesn't tend to ship on time. I'm not excusing them but this is hardly anything new.
Tell me, what is it when you remove a title from your previous console's dev roster so you can push it as a launch title for the next console?
The fact is, you are looking at two console launches only a week out. And considering the shortages, the data is skewed anyhow. You cannot project this out in a linear fashion. For instance what do you make of the fact that the PS3 and the DS are in American kids Top 10 Xmas Gifts list and the Wii is no where to be found?
What you are doing is called cherry-picking. You can do this to anything and make it look bad. Hey, what's with the Wii? No component cables for sale until December, and even
If Jesus wants me it knows where to find me.
Your rebuttal reeks of as much optimism as the original poster's did of pessimism.
There are numerous, deep flaws with the PS3 and with Sony's strategy over the last year. No amount of rationalization changes that.
Yes, I'm a Nintendo fan. Despite my poor experience with the PS1, I was also very excited about the PS2 -- until I saw that Sony was lying about it. This time around they're just being even more blatant.
--Jeremy
Jesus was a liberal
"Remind me again, why do WE care about the dev environment? How is that warning consumers of the dangers of the PS3?"
;)
Because poor dev environments caused the downfall of several historic game consoles. See: Sega Saturn.
While there were other issues with the Saturn, such as dev libraries being difficult to get ahold of... development of Sega Saturn cross platform titles often meant spending several extra months of development on the Saturn compared to, say, the PS1. It was one of the primary reasons the Saturn failed (along with its high initial pricetag, and difficulty getting hands on dev kits in the first place, low number of game releases outside of japan.. all of which except the last sound eerily familiar when looked at in context of the PS3).
Ease of system development is very important in forecasting how well third party developers will attach to a system. That's why it's important for a consumer to take into account on initial release. After a year or two when it becomes obvious which system will have better developer support, it can be safely ignored. But what we're trying to do is forecast which will be the one that will have the most numbers sold.
On a sidenote, one of the reasons the PS2 caught on initially and sold a huge number of units was adding DVD. At least, in Japan. DVD technology hadn't caught on huge there yet, and that coupled with several exclusive RPGs (squeenix, etc) cemented its success in Japan. This to some extent also helped it sell well in the US. It's what they're trying to do again with the Blu-ray, but unfortunately the blu-ray technology doesn't have a firm foothold in one of their markets already. Blu-ray movies are few and far between, compared to a point when DVDs were being sold like hotcakes - at least, for US movies. This, along with the production woes, make them introducing a new format much more risky at this point in time.
And about your point about the 'top ten xmas gifts':
The kids polled are probably very young. While this is one of the targets of the Wii, I can definitely see how the PS3 came on the list, and the DS as well - without the Wii.
You have to look at where the youngin's are getting their information, and keep in fact that they're more impressionable by the media than your typical teenage/adult gamer. They hear 'blazingly fast' and 'not much faster than the gamecube' and they go apeshit. They list the DS because they've seen older kids at school with them, or schoolmates with them, or they've played their friends DS, etc. You have to keep in mind that younger kids see a bunch of people with something and say "Those are cool! Everyone has one! I want one too!" rather than making a truly informed decision based on market level projections, hardware issues/points, games, etc.
As a sidenote, I like how legos are up there on the list
As the sibling post says, that's just Unreal 3. Sure, it has a big, beefy human character but that's just Epic's style. As far as GoW on anything but Xbox 360, keep in mind that Microsoft published the game (usually Epic gets published by Atari/Infogrames/GT Interactive/whatever they're calling themselves these days) so unless Epic can shop around to another publisher (no idea what's in their development contract; they may not be able to shop around) they're not going to get GoW published on PS3 or Wii. There's still a chance it may make it to Windows, though probably as a Vista-only gamelike Halo 2.
Also, try not to explain away the numbers by using the idea that these people would try to save trips. The Japanese are more mobile than Americans. Going to the game store isn't going out of the way. It's just part of another trip.
Oh, and according to Wikipedia:
They want Blue Dragon badly. And they don't care what system it's for.
Why did Sony set a launch when they clearly can't keep up with demand? Do people want it more that they can't have it, and Joey down the block has one? Did they just want to avoid being third in released systems? Nintendo's clearly hurting now that their system was released last. But then, Xbox 360 was the same way. It wasn't in stores for what, a good six months after "launch?" At least then they were the only next-gen console around.
Nintendo seems to be the only one with the supply to meet the demand. Stores are receiving shipments every week. They have a good lineup of games, Zelda being rated very highly by everyone. Some of the PS3 games I've read about seem to just be prettier/high-defier versions of existing fps/racers/madden. Nothing new with them but the price tag.
And how about them developers? All the extra work in textures and such for the prettiest hi-def graphics. One article said it was in the $10+ million range to make a game. Then they only sell for $10 more than Nintendo Wii games. Companies have to sell massive numbers just to keep themselves even, which explains sticking with set genres. No chance for experimenting on new styles or anything with that huge a risk.
By the time there are enough PS3s for stores to have some on their shelves, Nintendo will already be hitting 10 million systems. Each of those will have perhaps 3-5 store-bought games, as well as some Virtual Console games. That's a big hole they have to dig out of.
So, why did they launch prematurely?
You really should've gotten that PS2, man. That's certainly the best console available today if believe a console's merit comes from its games. Hell, you probably should go get a PS2 today. Much wiser purchase than a Wii, and most people out there agree with me. 300 bucks gets a new PS2 and seven top notch games. And people out there simply refuse to see that this is why the PS3 delays and production slowness aren't major problems, the PS2 is carrying the PS3's costs on its shoulders.
The PS3 is the pop culture item. Everyone wants one. In Europe, in Japan, and to lesser extent but still certainly in North America. If sony can manage to make any of these things, they will sell. Sony was wise to wait so long to get most of the kinks worked out of this program. Unlike Microsoft, sony wasn't trying to replace a sinking ship with a good console, Sony was trying to replace the most dominating console in gaming history.
No flaws in Sony's strategy. Sony consoles sold more than any other brand this year. Sony games sold more than any other console line too. PS2 is where its at. If some knucklehead out there wants to buy a PS3 now, well there's a large price to pay for that. Sony doesn't care than I'm going to wait it out and keep buying PS2 games and consider a PS3 later doen the road. Why would they care? That means more money for Sony. I'll get a PS3 when they have cheaper production costs.
But to buy a Wii? Why? It's not innovative, it's not a new platform, it's a gamecube and a powerglove ripoff. Is the Wii really better than the venerable Playstation 2?
As far as the XBOX 360 goes, well it's clearly the best system on the market. It's got all the capability and an improving library and the best online experience. But I'm still happy with my PS2 for now. I'm also worried that Microsoft will repeat its past history and move to another platform quickly. Original XBOX owners got shafted. PS2 owners certainly did not (if their system stayed working like mine did anyway)
Sony is actually being brilliant here. Sony is trading some of it's PS3 success to cement Bluray. It's going to work (internet movies suck on large screens and will for at least several years). PS2 will hold down the fort, and any scrutiny of why Sony has waited so long to enter the market should remember that PS2 will net a fuckton more money from license and hardware than 360 or Wii will this year or next. 100 million systems buys a lot more games for middle/lower class folks than a few million 360's and wii's will.
No. It equates to Japanes people not liking stuff because the seller was too fucking stupid to figure out what they actually wanted. The 360 simply has very little games that appeal to Japanes people. Hence, no sales.
I disagree, but only in terms of speed-of-adoption. I think it is a better analogy to use Surround Sound. That was never really a 'must have' feature for many people, but 'sure is nice' for a lot, and it eventually creeped its way into much lower-end setups than when it appeared. Saying no one gives a flip is not accurate, the HD adoption curve is steepening, not flattening.
If Jesus wants me it knows where to find me.