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What Analysts Will Be Buying For Christmas
Gamasutra's 'Analyze This' gets opinions firsthand from analysts examining the gaming industry. Today they have up a piece looking at gaming purchases that are good Christmas buys. Unsurprisingly, many of them focus on the next-gen consoles, with a few looking 'back' to hot sellers like the DS and Guitar Hero II. From the article: "We feel that Nintendo DS will perform strongly this Christmas in all major territories while PS2 software, nowadays largely ignored by the mainstream media, will continue to sell in significant volumes until 2008. PS2 software will generate around $5.2 billion in software sales in 2006, down from $7.6 billion in 2005. Although new hardware launches are exciting, it is easy to forget that launch performance is not indicative of longer term results. The first meaningful indications as to how the next generation will shape up will not emerge until late 2007. - Ed Barton, Screen Digest"
Analysts have already bought into the hype.
"No doubt one may quote history to support any cause, as the devil quotes scripture." - Learned Hand
Seriously, what do Analysts know?
I have seen analysts spout garbage like "The PSP will dominate the Nintendo DS starting in 2006" and "The Nokia N-Gage will reduce Nintendo to a fraction of their handheld marketshare". All analysts do is make up predictions and try to justify them without any real understanding on why people buy the products they do, and most of the time they're wrong. I'm willing to bet that the average slashdotter has more accurate predictions than these analysts.
Beginning to thing that the PS2 is a missing part of the conversation about the PS3; perhaps the reason Sony aimed so damn high with the spec is that they already have a low-end console with a massive library that sells like crazy. They can probably take the brunt of the parts shortages and bad vibes up front by riding on the PS2's shoulders for at least another two years.
If Jesus wants me it knows where to find me.
Too bad I used up all my mod points on comments for "Sony Console the Worst Launch Ever."
If I remember correctly, isn't the PS2 outselling the PS3, 360, and Wii combined (and is above the XBox)?
I'll buy what I want. Analysts can go perform sexual acts on themselves.
Stupid sexy Flanders.
"Our recent study on "next-gen purchase intent" showed that the PS3 enjoys the highest future purchase intent of all three systems."
"Our purchase intent study shows that immediate purchase intent for the 360 is pretty low, while a good portion of those interested in purchasing a 360 are waiting for a price drop. Microsoft may have tapped out that less price sensitive early adopter portion of the market."
"the Wii has the lowest level of awareness of the three systems, but a similar level of future purchase intent as the 360"
Anita Frazier, NPD
Mac minis are sexy, yes. I'll wait till the mythical "Mac TV" box shows up, though.
As for the Wii, there's very little stopping Linux from booting. You have local storage (SD/Flash), and Linux has been running on the GC since forever.
More importantly (like the PS3 and Mac) you have bluetooth. That means (theortically) you have mice and keyboards.
*If* the remote could get it's protocol reverse engineered (technically only need button presses), and *if* you could boot off of the SD card with little more than a Bootloader DVD inserted into the drive, then you could basically have a media player on an SD card, complete with remote. Linux would take up like 100-150M or so of the drive, so just put the movies on the rest of the 2G card, put it in, boot it up, and watch the movies.
So far I've gotten 6 PS2 titles and 10 DSLite titles, most of the PS2 games are used family/party style games while the DSLite's are new games aimed squarely at the two kids. Lets not forget the 3 controllers (one of which replaces a broken one) and the adapter to use all four at once. I can't wait to whip up on the family in some PS2 Twisted Metal Black! Now if I could only find Backyard Hockey 2005 for the PS2 I'd be happy, the kids don't want to play NHL 2007
Jonah HEX
Horror & SciFi Erotic Nudes
Read this interview and then tell me if you'd play anything recommended by "analysts". These people are paid to analyze industries and trends, not games and consoles. It's like asking a commodities broker which grocer has the best bananas! I'd far sooner trust a gaming journalist. They're far less likely to judge a game based on "genre coverage" as opposed to actual gameplay...
Just junk food for thought...
And we're all buying Wii games, quite frankly.
That and snowsuits and hip waders here in Seattle.
But some of the DS games are cool, as are some of the PSP ones.
Nobody seems interested in the Zune here - my sister phoned from Cali to ask if it's any good, I told her it had decent hardware.
So, I'd look for more Apple iPods, lots of games for the Wii console, extra controllers for the Wii console, SD cards, that kind of thing.
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Funny. It's (Wii) all the buzz amongst middle class dads and moms around here.
...
I agree the 360 needs a price drop. But, then, so does Sony's PS3
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"Our recent study on "next-gen purchase intent" showed that the PS3 enjoys the highest future purchase intent of all three systems."
Make 1,000 random phone calls and ask people "Which of the following next generation gaming systems do you intend to purchase, Sony's Playstation 3, Microsoft's XBox 360 or Nintendo's Wii?" and I'm willing to bet that most people who answer with (something like) "Oh, I own a PS2 so I'm going to buy a PS3!"
Now, if you created a selection of qualifying questions to see how informed people were and I imagine that the purchase intent for the Playstation 3 would be smaller.
The only reason I say this is that I was in EBgames looking for a nunchuck earlier this week and I saw a guy walk in and ask if they had the PS3 for sale (I think he was looking for it as a present for his children); it was explained to him that it wouldn't be readily available until after Christmas and would cost $650 (Canadian) and the man responded with something along the lines of "Why are you charging $200 more than anywhere else" not understanding that the PS3 actually cost $650 (as compared to the $450 the PS2 launched at).
People who guess and have no clue. Go to forums, talk tech friends and do your research and you'll make a informed purchase thus bypassing a group of people I see no use for whatsoever. In this age of information in-power yourself. It will never matter what analyst think, it's what you think.
Morality, filters both ways.
"Funny. It's (Wii) all the buzz amongst middle class dads and moms around here."
Sure it is...
"I agree the 360 needs a price drop"
It's already got one with all of the huge bundles. The $399 360 is effectively selling for $299 for the past month or so.
"so does Sony's PS3"
When a product is selling for roughly twice its street price on eBay, it sure as hell doesn't need a price cut. The PS3 is going to be sold out for the next 6 months at $499.
Its worth noting however that the PS3 seems to have the leg up for linux so far - they provide an officially sanctioned bootloader for instance. (Having a harddrive helps, as well). There's no reason the Xbox360 could not do this as well but so far MS is acting like it typically acts towards free software. Of the three new consoles, the Wii is the last one I expect to see with a truly functional linux environment.
If Jesus wants me it knows where to find me.
No numbers for November (expect those mid December) yet, so the Wii might have passed depending on launch numbers, but it did beat the 360 easily in October.
t ory=11648
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?s
The PlayStation 2 came in at around 235,000, with the Xbox 360 slightly disappointingly selling just under 220,000 units.
I just want to install Linux on the wii...
Yeah, but if you install it on a PS3, Sony will lose anywhere from $240 to $306 on the console sale, and technically the PS3 has more power than the Wii - notice I didn't say it was as fun to play, just more powerful.
Think about it - install Linux on your PS3 (bought at retail) instead, and kill two birds with one cow tossing.
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Statistic-os! Contains %83.57 of your daily value of nutrients. Believed to be a part of a balance breakfast. May contain a high amount of vitamin C. Net Weight: 8 - 11oz. Projected servings per box: 15
You constantly struggle for self improvement - and it shows.
Hooray for bad Engrish on fortune cookies
At my office the Wii is the game system of choice right now. No one I know is going to buy a PS3 anytime soon.
It is just too expensive.
I have heard that the PS3 lacks a down converter so if you don't have an HDTV that supports 1080p you only get 480p graphics.
If that is true then it will be a long time before I get a PS3. 1080p TVs are still very expensive.
See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
I don't expect 360 to have linux, even unofficially, supported before the wii. Without MS help, I don't see the guys of free60 succeeding before 720 is released(maybe not even before 1080). I think nintendo suggested a linux second OS for the wii just like the ps3.
Not even digital signatures? Look at the Nintendo DS; without a NoPass style mod chip, you can't load binaries that aren't signed with Nintendo's private key over DS Download Play, and anything you load from the GBA slot will run in GBA compatibility mode. It took a year and a half after the DS was released before NoPass became available for sale, and there's no guarantee that anything like it will be made for Wii.
But how do Wii get the CPU to load and run software from local storage (SD/Flash)?
Linux for GameCube on Wii is worse than Linux for GameCube on GameCube because Linux for GameCube on Wii cannot access the Wii's network hardware, which means you can't boot off a NAS.
If anybody outside the Nintendo NDA manages to release a Bootloader DVD, then the PS3 and Mac mini lose some of their exclusive appeal.
I was going around looking for Wii controllers with a friend in Tacoma and it seems they sell out rapidly. I'm just waiting for someone to unload his entire PS2/PSX collection so that I can rush in and snap up anything that's no longer being pressed(I'm looking at you, Digital Devil Saga.).
BTW, it's even colder and snowier on the east side.
I might try to get a DS for myself too.
If you're interested in something a little more robust and definitely different than an iPod, check out the Creative Zen Sleek. It's got a burly aluminum case instead of plastic. It looks cooler too, and the UI is a bit easier to use(for me).
SRSLY.
I still haven't found any extra Wii controllers myself. Found a nunchuk at Sears, but still need the Wii-mote.
They sold out any they still had on Black Friday early on.
And the games are in such short supply that they can't even stock a full shelf, cause they keep selling out.
Same at many stores.
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I found one online with Fingerhut, but no guaranteed Christmas delivery. Mine shipped Friday, I ordered it about a week ago.
Well, I just checked at the local coffee shop - still everyone planning on either getting a Wii or more games for the Wii they already got.
There was one guy a week ago who wanted a PS3 - but he was going to wait until January when they're easier to get. Mind you, he had a 1080i HDTV, so maybe he could appreciate the difference.
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actually Wii can play movies from SD cards using that photo channel,with no need to boot a linux or something
Nothing is impossible, but I've been checking the free60 site periodically since it was first posted and I agree with you. I don't see them making major headway. Microsoft has definitely done a better job locking down the 360 than they did on the original Xbox.
And yes, before anyone asks, I would like to contribute. But all my software experience is nowhere near the bare metal, so there isn't much I can do.
ffs people o_0 Sony loses *more* if you *don't* buy the console, is that so hard to understand? You're just helping them recoup their losses otherwise..
PS - I don't hate Sony for the rootkit thing, though I think it was rather foolish on some individual's/small-groups part. I've had many happy hours from PSX and PS2 (and I consider the music branch separate from the ones that made the PSX and PS2...). I've always intended on buying a PS3, though them delaying it's launch in the UK means that I've already pre-ordered a Wii. I may still get a PS3 next year depending on the games it has, but I value gameplay over graphics, so if the Wii can continue to come up with good games and not just be a short-lived gimmick, then I'll stick with it.. may yet get the PS3 due to its Blu-ray abilities too, and possibly for buying graphically superior versions of games which are otherwise exactly the same (unless the Wii controller turns out to work well for racing and rallying games, which I do like..)
which is totally what she said
No, according to a number of financial business analysts, they literally lose money on each console made. If you buy it fresh, and then turn it into a server, the only help you give them is the economy of scale, but you actually decrease their profit - both by lost game sales and by literal loss.
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No - they have *already* lost the money by making the console. Any money you give them for that console will help them make money back (not a profit, but still a smaller loss). If nobody bought a PS3 then they'd make more of a loss than if people did (although if people buy them, then they manufacture millions more, and then nobody buys those millions, they'll lose more than having just made one million or whatever). The lost game sales point is valid, but the other one is stupid.. and they're going to make more, so eventually anyone who wants one will actually get one..
which is totally what she said
I'm sorry, this is basic economics.
Company A produces Product B at Price C for Cost D.
Consumer E buys 5 units of Product B from Company A - cost to Company A is 5 times (D-C) - at $240 loss, this LOSES $1200 for Company A.
Consumer F buys 10 units of Product B from Company A - cost to Company A is 10 times (D-C) - at $240 loss, this LOSES $2400 for Company A.
Assuming both Consumers buy zero games and Blu-Ray movies from Company A, then Company A has lost a lot of money, and makes none back.
If all such Product B are turned into Linux servers, then Consumers E and F have both stuck it to Company A and have cool graphics servers with Cell processors to boot!
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Only makes any sense if a lot of people do this, and I doubt many people are going to spend that much for a not very functional server. I get your point, but I even think some of these geeks wil give in to buying the games when they see how cool they are, and they already have a powerful multicore system to play them with...
which is totally what she said