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Scientists Threatened For "Climate Denial"

Forrest Kyle writes "A former professor of climatology at the University of Winnipeg has received multiple death threats for questioning the extent to which human activities are driving global warming. '"Western governments have pumped billions of dollars into careers and institutes and they feel threatened," said the professor. "I can tolerate being called a skeptic because all scientists should be skeptics, but then they started calling us deniers, with all the connotations of the Holocaust. That is an obscenity. It has got really nasty and personal." Richard Lindzen, the professor of Atmospheric Science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology [...] recently claimed: "Scientists who dissent from the alarmism have seen their funds disappear, their work derided, and themselves labelled as industry stooges. Consequently, lies about climate change gain credence even when they fly in the face of the science."'"

159 of 1,165 comments (clear)

  1. I Don't Buy It by eldavojohn · · Score: 4, Interesting

    If he's trying to clear his name, he's doing a bad job of it.

    I found an article by him in which I hoped to hear his logic and reasoning against global warming.

    He claims it is just a natural cycle. That he's seen two of these in his career and he'll see one more before he dies. If his "death threat" was someone saying that he won't see temperature returning to normal before he dies, I don't think it was a death threat.

    I can't find a formal report of his research but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. If this is his argument, he leaves out a lot of things that need to be explained to me before I let it go. Like, why are polar bears suddenly on the endangered species list? What's happening to all the snow on the tops of mountains? Where are the ice glaciers (with ice that has been around for thousands if not millions of years) going? What is his retort to the CO2 levels being their highest ever--even after looking at ice core samples?

    His article only mentions a professor from MIT but not what his criticisms are.

    If their work is being derided, I want to know what their work is. I'm a skeptic also, if these people are being published in newspapers, you would think that they wouldn't waste their time on death threats and counter-counter-criticisms but would instead try to get the truths they have been finding in their research out to the public. If you're conducting good science that, in and of itself, will clear your name in the end.

    The more I search for information on Timothy Ball, the more he seems like he's playing just as dirty as the people he's fighting. Check out his lawsuit for a journal publishing a letter. I feel we're not hearing the full story here.

    When I'm at work and I enter situations in which someone is decrying someone else and vice versa, I just present everyone with facts. If I had done research and I received death threats, I would submit to major newspapers two things: my research published with permission to reprint it & the death threats in their original form. Nothing could boost my efforts to get the truth out there more. The fact that I see a PhD and scientist spending more time saying his life is in danger than presenting me with his findings tells me a lot about what his motives are.

    He was published, I guess in Ecological Complexity which I do not have access to. If anyone has papers from his work, I would love to see it--otherwise I'm going to tune this soap opera out as emotional noise in what should be a stoic process.

    Question everything. Question both sides. And if you have something that is true, present it. I'm not calling him a liar, I just can't call him anything right now because all I can find are stories about who called who what.

    --
    My work here is dung.
    1. Re:I Don't Buy It by ajs · · Score: 5, Insightful

      You don't have to buy anything, just walk up to a representative sample of people who think that global warming is anthropogenic and say, "actually I think it's probably just a natural cycle."

      The shock, hostility and downright hatred you will come across will very quickly render claims of death threats highly believable. Is this guy a jerk? Maybe. Is his science on-par? I have no clue. But, there is no denying the fact that this has become such an emotionally charged issue that climatology is probably the hardest field to do real science in today. I really wish we could de-politicize the whole process, but I fear that we would have had to start slowing this train about a decade ago in order to accomplish that feat.

    2. Re:I Don't Buy It by Sciros · · Score: 3, Informative

      Well, when you mention polar bears and ice caps on mountains, etc., it seems like that's a whole other topic altogether. The scientific community isn't saying that global warming isn't happening; they're just not agreeing about how it is being caused. While it [sort of] correlates to CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, it correlates to other things as well. On top of that, ocean current changes (which can have an effect on climate), as well as other phenomena, are not fully explored or understood and may well be responsible as well. That is, there are many postulations and theories about what's causing global warming and there is no super ninja conclusive evidence for one over the others. Our climate models are simply not that good.

      I'm not defending this particular scientist's ideas; I am not familiar with them. But I do agree that there's just as much money to be made on the Green side of the fence as on the Exxon-Mobil side (or whatever). So like you, I want to question everything and I appreciate that this scientist at least inspires that tendency.

      --
      I like basketball!!1!
    3. Re:I Don't Buy It by AlanS2002 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      "I really wish we could de-politicize the whole process"

      If the process was de-politicized something would of probably been done about global worming 10 - 15 years ago, however due to lobbying from very wealthy interest groups it's only now that something is starting to be done about it.

      --
      Not all conservatives are stupid,
      but it is true that most stupid people are conservative.
      - Hume
    4. Re:I Don't Buy It by P3NIS_CLEAVER · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Even if he is a POS shill for the fuel industry, does he deserve to have his life threatened? As an aside, I have seen way to many facets of weather lately blamed on global warming such as hurricanes. This is complete and utter bunk.

      --
      Please sign petition to restore sanity to our banking system!!!

      http://financialpetition.org/
    5. Re:I Don't Buy It by stratjakt · · Score: 5, Insightful

      TFA is more about the death threats he's recieved, and the general unwillingness to believe anything other than worst-case "day after tomorrow" type scenarios.

      I don't think any true climatologists have such a dim view - but the media does, and Al Gore does, and a large community of activists do. And those activists have the same mindset of those who murder doctors at abortion clinics, or assault people wearing fur coats.

      How are you going to have any sort of open discourse or intelligent discussion, or any sort of pursuit of the "truth" with such people involved?

      Believing something other than "mainstream science" these days has some nasty consequences. Science has sort of replaced religion to a lot of people, and people vehemently defend Darwin like a religious fundy would defend the Bible.

      I wonder if there are any true-life Galilleo's out there, muzzled and silent, who's name won't be known for centuries, when they're proven right?

      --
      I don't need no instructions to know how to rock!!!!
    6. Re:I Don't Buy It by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Which is why "global warming" is on it's way out and "global climate change" is on it's way in. But the inability to predict the changes has nothing to do with changes currently observed OR whether or not it was caused by mankind.

      My thought is that we're facing backlash based on 30 years of bad predictions- with nobody noticing the logic of "hey, maybe we SHOULD reduce pollution for other reasons", or "maybe we should capitalize on all the extra CO2 in the atmosphere and provide us with some nice large lumber-grade bamboo forests for building materials in the mean time".

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    7. Re:I Don't Buy It by sumdumass · · Score: 5, Insightful

      What if what "was done about it" was the wrong thing? And what iof nothing needs to be done about it?

    8. Re:I Don't Buy It by spun · · Score: 3, Insightful

      What money is there to be made on the green side? Where does the majority of research money in the world actually come from, people who have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo, or those who have a vested interest in changing it?

      --
      - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    9. Re:I Don't Buy It by malsdavis · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I think the article is intending to mislead.

      I've also read up on some of the reports by this "scientist" and many are anything but scientific. Scientists criticise other scientists all the time for this.

      The only difference here seems to be that the issue is a politically sensitive one.

    10. Re:I Don't Buy It by Ambitwistor · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I read an article that the Mars tempature has experance a simular increase as witnessed in our atmosphere. No.

      I remember in 1976 and 1977 when the winter was HARSH to say the lease the talk was of the comming ICE AGE. The people who claim that a harsh winter proves global cooling are just as silly as the people who think that a harsh summer proves global warming.

      More to the point, the scientific community was not claiming that harsh winters of 1976-1977 were evidence of global cooling.
    11. Re:I Don't Buy It by Red+Flayer · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It is the height of meglomania to suggest that human beings have a greater impact on the planet than that big-ass hot thing that comes over the horizon every morning.

      And it's the height of willful ignorance to not understand that the human impact on climate is caused by solar radiation -- it's the human effect on the impact of that solar radiation that leads to anthropogenic climate change.

      You will find articles dating back 20 years or more, with many articles devoted to the coming catastrophe of Global COOLING. They were all anticipating the new Ice Age.
      Are people still comparing pop sci global cooling with real sci global warming?

      Humans tend to think that the span of our lifetimes are significant, when in the scope of Universe, our lifespans, and indeed human life on this planet are nothing but a blip, a footnote, a grain of sand on the beach.
      Immaterial. The impact of global warming is still significant to mankind, in the midst of that 'blip'. The point you make is equivalent to saying that I shouldn't be concerned if my home is burning to the ground because I'm only one of several billion humans -- hogwash. To me, that home is important, just as to mankind, global warming is important, despite our insignificance in the big picture of the universe.

      I tend to think the Earth can and will do what it will do without consulting us.
      Get your head out of the sand, please. The Earth is not a sentient being, it is not some mystical entity that 'does what it wants' -- it is a collection of all the things on and in it, including us. And to think that we are not part of the Earth system, to think that we have no influence on global phenomena, is to deny human existence.
      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    12. Re:I Don't Buy It by SirTalon42 · · Score: 5, Informative

      Your article was from 2005, through 2006 there was far more evidence showing Mars was warming (including reports from NASA and other groups saying exactly that).

    13. Re:I Don't Buy It by rkanodia · · Score: 2, Funny

      So, we have a clear solution: just have Al Gore circle the globe in a supersonic jet and talk really fast at bookings.

    14. Re:I Don't Buy It by JonBuck · · Score: 5, Insightful
      Actually, it has become an emotional issue. We have people like James Lovelock and James Hansen saying we're doomed, Doomed, DOOMED! at the top of their lungs. When you drive people into a panic, they do not behave rationally. I've made some bad financial errors because I made an emotional purchase.

      Read this piece by Dr. Mike Hulme, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research:

      The language of catastrophe is not the language of science. It will not be visible in next year's global assessment from the world authority of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

      To state that climate change will be "catastrophic" hides a cascade of value-laden assumptions which do not emerge from empirical or theoretical science.

      Is any amount of climate change catastrophic? Catastrophic for whom, for where, and by when? What index is being used to measure the catastrophe?

      The language of fear and terror operates as an ever-weakening vehicle for effective communication or inducement for behavioural change.

      The language of politicians can be as strong as that of campaigners
      This has been seen in other areas of public health risk. Empirical work in relation to climate change communication and public perception shows that it operates here too.

      Framing climate change as an issue which evokes fear and personal stress becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. By "sexing it up" we exacerbate, through psychological amplifiers, the very risks we are trying to ward off.

      The careless (or conspiratorial?) translation of concern about Saddam Hussein's putative military threat into the case for WMD has had major geopolitical repercussions.

      We need to make sure the agents and agencies in our society which would seek to amplify climate change risks do not lead us down a similar counter-productive pathway.


      Don't panic.
    15. Re:I Don't Buy It by Ambitwistor · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You don't have to buy anything, just walk up to a representative sample of people who think that global warming is anthropogenic and say, "actually I think it's probably just a natural cycle."

      The shock, hostility and downright hatred you will come across will very quickly render claims of death threats highly believable. I don't think it's a "representative sample" you have in mind.

      There are extremists on both sides, who, unsurprisingly, are among the most vocal. Just look at the anti-AGW types who start screaming about dirty hippie globaloney-worshipping libtard Gorebots the instant the word "warming" leaves one's mouth.

      But, there is no denying the fact that this has become such an emotionally charged issue that climatology is probably the hardest field to do real science in today. Eh, the majority of the climatology community is probably fairly insulated from the political debate as far as their actual practice of science is concerned. It probably even remains true in general, with the exception of a relative handful of high profile scientists (e.g., the ones who end up testifying to Congress) and those who intentionally insert themselves into the political scene.

      It is, however, way over-politicized to the extent that none of the real scientific debates accurately trickle down to the public.
    16. Re:I Don't Buy It by spun · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Get a grip. Your first sentence makes my point for me. You try to insult me and belittle my position. Then you take a quote from me out of context and try to invoke Godwin. I said deniers as compared to skeptics. I have no problem with people who say, "We don't know." or "I'm not sure." I have a problem with people who actively deny the possibility and then toss around insults because they have no actual logical argument.

      --
      - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    17. Re:I Don't Buy It by AshtangiMan · · Score: 2, Interesting
      The "I think its probably just a natural cycle" is specious at best. Based on what evidence? The evidence suggests that while there was a natural cycle of carbon, where we are now is unprecidented, very outside of the natural cycle. I do think it is reasonable to think that taking carbon that has been sequestered for millions of years and spewing it into a very tiny volume of atmosphere (relative to the volume of the earth) can change its makeup, and I have done enough (though limited) work in a lab to know that the concept of a "tipping point" is well established (think titration). Notice that I use subjective quallifiers too, but I then explain (or at least allude to it) the evidence that I am looking at.

      I have yet to see the anti anthropogenic arguments couched in any way that is meant to clarify, create a dialog, inspire critical analysis, or otherwise lend to the body of knowledge. This causes frustration, which leads to the reactions you note, and it is purposeful.

      If you carefully laid out an argument as to why the earth is round, backed up with observations that suggested that it could very well be round and met with remarks of "I think its probably flat" I think you might feel a bit frustrated because that ends the dialog. If however the remark was "I think its probably flat because . . . " and then heard a list of reasons based in similiar kinds of observation it might lead to a conversation which would enlighten both.

    18. Re:I Don't Buy It by Peter+Trepan · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You don't have to buy anything, just walk up to a representative sample of people who think that global warming is anthropogenic and say, "actually I think it's probably just a natural cycle." [...] The shock, hostility and downright hatred you will come across will very quickly render claims of death threats highly believable.

      You'd get the same reaction if you said, "I think homosexuality is a conscious choice." Is it really? I'm not sure, but I know that it's in the best interest of religious conservatives for people to think so, and I know that religious conservatives vastly outnumber those with the means and motive to find out how orientation is determined. Therefore, when someone starts a conversation this way, I tend to start with the assumption that they're fundamentalists.

      I agree that it's a shame as far as getting real science done is concerned, but I wouldn't assume that the shocked and outraged parties aren't open minded. They're just acting like hyper-vigilant spam filters that send the occasional legitimate email to the junk drawer in order to successfully filter through mountians of garbage. If you want to convince them that you'll argue on an adult level, the burden of proof is unfortunately on you.

      --

      Step into a huge movement. Don't Tread In Me.

    19. Re:I Don't Buy It by TopherC · · Score: 4, Informative

      The public have a disturbing lack of understanding of the scientific process. Yes, climate change is a hot issue, and rightly so! It takes an extraordinary level of public awareness of global warming just to push against a government that is normally driven by corporate interest. In many other fields, the government has demonstrated incredibly poor management of scientific programs, and also a complete disregard of scientific rationale when it comes to policy-making.

      Now that the stakes are so high, the public simply has to get involved. That presents a new difficulty for the scientists. The scientific process is that of constant questioning and evaluation. One has to be as objective as possible, exploring different sides of an argument, and so on. To attack a scientist for their professional opinion in their own field is to attack the scientific process. But the result of this process (which when you look at forefront research may seem chaotic and governed by sociology more than science) is firm conclusions that have withstood the storms of controversy.

      Another aspect of science that needs to be understood are the various relationships between theory and experiment. With global warming, I think this translates into climate models and the search for evidence of warming. I'm not aware of *any* climate models that deny any correlation between greenhouse gases and global temperatures. And I even suspect that all reasonable climate models give (within an order of magnitude) the same level of warming. The leading-edge global climate research is concerned with one aspect or another of *evidence* for climate change that's already occurred.

      What level of evidence do we require before we change our behavior and set new policies? Does any climate scientist feel that we can continue increasing the levels of CO2 without any serious consequences? I don't think so. Do I think that if I bite a cyanide capsule then I will die? Well, I haven't tried it so I guess I don't know for certain. But there is a well-established theory which strongly suggests cyanide will be fatal to me. I don't know how fast it would kill me, but it would most likely take much less than a day. Do I have enough information on this to decide on a policy of, say, not leaving such capsules lying around the house for my kids to discover? Of course I do! Now, this isn't a perfect analogy since there are many people, some of whom have performed this "experiment" already. But there's only one planet Earth. But even so, even the most simplistic models of the Earth's climate force us to conclude that we're hurtling toward catastrophic climate change.

    20. Re:I Don't Buy It by NETHED · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Correction. Legislation away embryonic stem cell research. You know, the ones that come from aborted fetuses. Its dirty truth about stem cell research. As a biochemist, I FULLY support stem cell research (hell I'll probably get my bread and butter from it eventually), but not embryonic stem cell research. The public is not being told the truth about the stem cell research they hold most dear and the legislators are using the collective ignorance of the public to drive elections. (look up Michael J Fox's political ads from 2006).

      --
      --sig fault--
    21. Re:I Don't Buy It by misleb · · Score: 5, Insightful

      What if what "was done about it" was the wrong thing? And what iof nothing needs to be done about it?


      Depends on what was done about it, but I can't help thinking "better safe than sorry." When our greatgrandchildren look back on this time 100 years from now, I'd rather them laugh at our paranoia (or whatever you might call incorrect and alarmist views on climate change) than lament our complacency.

      That said, I don't think it is worth any kind of violent revolution or some such. That woudl certainly be something to lament.

      -matthew
      --
      "THERE IS NO JUSTICE, THERE IS ONLY ME." -Death
    22. Re:I Don't Buy It by spun · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I've seen idiots get alarmed about all kinds of things. I've seen people attack others and then claim to be with a group they have nothing to do with. I've seen otherwise rational individuals goaded into attacking people with taunts and insults. So yeah, by some definitions I've seen some emotional global arming alarmists. I've seen orders of magnitude more emotional global warming deniers, yet it's always the people who think we should do something about global warming that get called emotional. Maybe that is because caring about the environment is seen as weak, feminine, and emotional in many circles.

      --
      - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    23. Re:I Don't Buy It by Frank+T.+Lofaro+Jr. · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Global warming worries is so 1990's.

      We won't have get to the point where it will really matter, Peak Oil will come and we won't HAVE anything to burn to create greenhouse gases.

      Not that it would matter, when billions starve and get shot, bombed and nuked in the energy wars.

      (perhaps I'm just kidding, perhaps not).

      --
      Just because it CAN be done, doesn't mean it should!
    24. Re:I Don't Buy It by AlanS2002 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Then we've saved the fossil fuels from running out for a bit longer. If we are wrong, better that and look silly than be right and not doing anything in time. That would have to qualify the whole human species for a Darwin award.

      --
      Not all conservatives are stupid,
      but it is true that most stupid people are conservative.
      - Hume
    25. Re:I Don't Buy It by ajs · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Now that the stakes are so high [...] Are they? What stakes?

      I mean that quite seriously. If we're to reduce the rhetoric and move forward, we have to stop relying on fear and TALK rationally and plainly.

      The UN predicts several centimeters of raised sea-level over the coming century. That's what you're concerned about? What? The fact that fertile growing regions might shift north by a few hundred miles? The fact that a few new shipping lanes might be opened up? The fact that Tundra wildlife might explode? What, exactly are the stakes? I'm not sure warming is a good thing, but I'm also not convinced that it's the cataclysmic event that we're being told by some.

      WHAT are these stakes? Al Gore's alarmist fears of Florida disappearing under the waves? Honestly, I like Al Gore. I voted for Al Gore because I watched his career in the 80s and 90s and was hugely thankful for the work that he did (and later took undeserved heat for) in building the Internet in the 80s. But, on this I think he's done an issue that he clearly cares about a disservice.
    26. Re:I Don't Buy It by inviolet · · Score: 4, Interesting

      PS: Balancing green house gasses would do little harm to the US economy. We might go from spending ~3% of are GDP on fossil fuel to ~6% on renewable energy but over the long term it's a minor change

      I know you pulled those figures out of your hat, but let's consider. If the cost of energy increases by 25%, that means the cost of everything increases by 10-25% (depending on what fraction of a widget is labor versus what fraction is materials). Everything.

      Ultimately, the switch to non-petroleum energy will reduce the effective GDP by that 10-25% figure (or maybe even more), probably via inflation.

      Our GDP is about 13 trillion dollars a year. So we're talking *massive* amounts of resources. Perhaps it makes you feel virtuous to declare that you perceive the need for others to expend such resources... but to me it seems a shakey bet to wager so much wealth on the chance that a) global warming is manmade, b) global warming is reversible by a change in our behavior, and c) we are better off with a cooler planet. Any of those three is, right now, a crapshoot; for example, a warmer planet will enliven a great deal of otherwise useless tundra.

      --
      FATMOUSE + YOU = FATMOUSE
    27. Re:I Don't Buy It by N3WBI3 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Wish I had mod points, this sums it up pretty nicely. There are enough skeptics out there (on man made Global Warming) that they should not be labelled kooks but we can all Agree Pollution is pretty bad! I am very much a fan of alternaitve fuels for dozens of reasons but Golbal Warming is not in the top 5 because frankly A guy who could not pass geology in college (Al Gore) does not hold alot of wieght to me. Lets talk about how alternative renewable fuels could reduce global conflict, correct health issues caused by pollutents, improve our quality of life, make our lifestyles more sustainable, and leave a better planet to the following generations. Lets fund the hell out of WindFarms, Solar Energy, Wave Energy (Ocean), Hydrogen, BioFuels based on areas we can agree on.

      --
    28. Re:I Don't Buy It by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Except the CO2 could be keeping us from an ice age and our paranoia could plunge us into one. Try feeding 6 billion people with large amounts of farm land covered in ice. The climate is really complex and needs to be fully understood before we try to start changing things.

    29. Re:I Don't Buy It by mikael · · Score: 2, Interesting

      If the suggestion is that the Sun has changed energy output by a small amount, then wouldn't this show up in the energy output logs of the solar panels of orbiting satellites (particularly those in geostationary orbits). At least this should up the effect of sunspot activity (if there are any satellites that are in service for over 20 years).

      --
      Vintage computer adverts: http://www.vintageadbrowser.com/computers-and-software-ads
    30. Re:I Don't Buy It by fimbulvetr · · Score: 3, Insightful

      What about the massive amounts of money we're spending to protect our interests in our current energy sources? I.e. Money spent lobbying (for/against), by/for politicians re: fossil fuels? Or money spent to maintain military presence near/at the source of oil? No one ever seems to count that as money we're spending for fossil fuels.

    31. Re:I Don't Buy It by Greyfox · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Yuh huh. If you want to elicit additional levels of anger, ask them if they're willing to do their part by not driving their Maibatsu Monstrosity and instead walking, biking or taking public transportation.

      If they didn't have the pitchforks and torches out before, that should just about do it.

      --

      I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?

    32. Re:I Don't Buy It by vonhammer · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Don't put your faith in Peak Oil solving our CO2 problem. The US is the MidEast of the world's Coal reserves, with about 1/4 of the entire reserves in our country. Also, before we resort to burning coal for fuel, we have natural gas to run through. It won't reach Peak Gas (sounds ominous :-) ) until after Peak Oil. There's lots of carbon to throw into the atmosphere. We have to find a way to sequester this CO2.

    33. Re:I Don't Buy It by rucs_hack · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Much of what is collected is dumped. In the UK we 'export' it to vast mounds of plastic crap in china and third world countries. This is shameful, and exists solely because of the current fashion of enforced recycling. In the US a large percentage of 'recyclables' are still dumped.

      Recycling is mostly makework. The profits come from the lavish grants that are provided, and avoidance of penalties for not instituting it.

      Melting plastic to re-use costs as much, if not more energy then creating it in the first place. Paper has been a renewable resource for *decades*. There is no need to recycle it, and the chemicals used to clean it also have to be produced, using more raw materials to do a job that doesn't need to be done.We also have no need whatsoever to recycle glass, none. It costs as much to recycle as produce in the first place, and we are in no danger of running out of sand...
      Lastly, it is an outright lie that large landfill is bad for the environment.

      Recycling probably produces more harm to the environment then not recycling at all. The only exception is Tin, which is useful as a recycled product.

    34. Re:I Don't Buy It by BlueShirt · · Score: 2
      For what it's worth, I was a math undergrad at the University of Winnipeg when Tim Ball was teaching there. I had several friends who were geography majors who had him. At that time, he had a Master's and publicly stated that the push to have professors with Ph.D.s was ridiculous as he could just get a distance degree (by mail at the time -- pre-internet) and it would be just as good.

      Because he was one of the first profs there to get into computing in geography in a big way, I got interested in his work. I was only 2 years into an undergraduate degree but I was unsure of his use of statistics and reasoning. He was sceptical of global cooling reported in the media at that time. The primary focus of his objection seemed to be that not enough research had been done and climate change has always been the norm. This seems to be the same argument he is using against global warming.

      He liked to make sensational statements and, equally, he very much liked to attack sensational statements. At least, I found him like that. I would still read any of his works very carefully with a critical eye.

    35. Re:I Don't Buy It by Lars+T. · · Score: 5, Insightful

      PS: Balancing green house gasses would do little harm to the US economy. We might go from spending ~3% of are GDP on fossil fuel to ~6% on renewable energy but over the long term it's a minor change

      I know you pulled those figures out of your hat, but let's consider. If the cost of energy increases by 25%, that means the cost of everything increases by 10-25% (depending on what fraction of a widget is labor versus what fraction is materials). Everything.

      Yeah, if the price of energy rose by 25%, absolutely nobody would start thinking about using less energy for a change.
      --

      Lars T.

      To the guy who modded me down from perfect to terrible Karma - Apple haters still suck

    36. Re:I Don't Buy It by AlanS2002 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I don't see how using less fossil fuels could possibly make climate change accelerate. It just doesn't fit with anything we know about CO2 affects on heat absorption as against Oxygens or Nitrogens. You can always say, 'well we might learn different in the future', which could be true. However, an acceleration in global temperatures has coincided with massive use of fossil fuels in modern history, not vice versa.

      --
      Not all conservatives are stupid,
      but it is true that most stupid people are conservative.
      - Hume
    37. Re:I Don't Buy It by LurkerXXX · · Score: 3, Interesting

      As for your financial analysis, also remember that right now a large chunk of money is flying out of the US, EU, etc, to other countries to buy those fossil fuels. If we get renewable energy sources cranked up within our own countries, that chunk that we can keep in-house will add considerably to that GDP.

      Any of those three is, right now, a crapshoot; for example, a warmer planet will enliven a great deal of otherwise useless tundra.

      Scientists working in the field for years and years have put a lot of thought into the variables in the 'crapshoot'. We know that snow on the tundra reflects a lot more incoming radiation than the desert which will be created in the warmer climates. Thus increasing heating further. There is a lot more science behind the 'crapshoot' than you are giving credit for.

    38. Re:I Don't Buy It by tsalaroth · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The funny thing is, modern coal-burning technologies burn coal far cleaner than any petroleum-burning processes for power generation.

      Why are we still using oil for power generation in the US? I know not every state is, but a great deal of them do.

    39. Re:I Don't Buy It by Retric · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Umm, if a 25% increase in energy costs = 10-25% increase in the cost of everything then energy costs are (10/25 % to 25/25 %) = 40 to 100% the cost of everything, which is just not the case. Feel free to look up fuel costs as a % of GDP. (If you don't believe these numbers feel free to look at the cost of land as a function of the cost of fossil fuels. Next look into the price of a good doctor / programmer as a function of energy cost's etc. Physical goods and services are no where near 100% of the US economy.)

      Fossil fuel energy costs are ~3% of the US GDP so a 25% increase in those energy costs would increase everything by .03 * .25 = 0.75%.

      Granted I have not run the numbers in a few years but converting all of the US electricity generation would to non CO2 sources would create a 30 - 65% premium over existing costs depending on location. See: http://www.stirlingenergy.com/solar_overview.htm for a good example of such systems.

      Solar hot water heaters save money for most of the continental US. Granted not so much in Alaska.

      The only real issues is Cars / Jet's but there is enough of a buffer from heating and electric costs that even at 2.5x gas prices your only talking about 2x net energy costs. (Note your price at the pump is only about 50% raw fuel costs so (2.5x /2 + .5) = 1.75x at the pump or ~5.25$)

      PS: In time there will be no fossil fuel's left anywhere in the world so doing nothing is not really an option. Those economies' that are prepared for ever increasing costs of fossil fuels will do better in the long run.

    40. Re:I Don't Buy It by FauxPasIII · · Score: 3, Insightful

      > Notice anything familiar?

      Nope. You're describing an issue of individual freedom. The global warming debate is about how to regulate the commons, not imposing on an individual's freedom.

      --
      25% Funny, 25% Insightful, 25% Informative, 25% Troll
    41. Re:I Don't Buy It by Profane+MuthaFucka · · Score: 2, Informative

      The stakes are that we have a range of outcomes, which is narrowing. The worst outcomes are truly dreadful, and the best outcomes are just really bad.

      Worst: temperature rises by 30 degrees. That would kill the trees, most people, and force abandonment of most of the globe. We'd be living and fighting around the artic circle with the other 100 million humans left for food and energy. Good thing Canada is such a pushover. The Chinese and the Russians are going to have much more interesting lives as they fight for land in the artic.

      Best: Do you live in Boston? Why not move to Atlanta Don't have time to move to Atlanta? Not to worry, you can retire in a similar climate without having to leave your house.

      --
      Fascism trolls keeping me up every night. When I starts a preachin', he HITS ME WITH HIS REICH!
    42. Re:I Don't Buy It by asilentthing · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I do agree. Responsibility is not valued highly today -- I still wonder if more and more regulation will cure human disregard. I don't think it will. But arguments go on and on, till we get to the conclusion that something must be done no matter what. And the most proactive solution is what becomes culturally acceptable. I think the deeper problem rests with us relying on just anyone's "facts" or "science". The more I research this on both sides I still stay a "skeptic" -- though that's highly subjective word on either side. Ignorance and rash belief are what make these sorts of issues emotionally-charged, I believe. I would personally rather be the skeptic who has come to conclusions logically (I mean - if this is real science, global warming's apparent causes can never come to true "consensus" in a real scientific community lest it cease being just that) than believing the hype blindly. If I'm wrong, awesome. I'll admit it and move on (just because I don't think global warming is real doesn't mean I am not responsible with resources, etc.).

      --
      --- these days, what with business and stuff, you gotta get your emails...
    43. Re:I Don't Buy It by misleb · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I get it. You are alluding to Pascal's Wager, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal's_wager , And applying it to politics.

      Actually, it did cross my mind, but after more thought, I came to the conclusion that it isn't relevant because climate change affects all of us. You going to hell or not does not affect anyone but you. It simply doesn't make any sense to legislate belief. It makes a lot of sense, however, to regulate human environmental impact. And in fact, such regulations have shown to be very successful in the past. Seriously, have you ever been to a county/city that has little or no environmental regulation? It is appalling.

      So, we have evidence that environmental regulations work without seriously hurting the economy in the long term... and evidence that humans are impacting the global climate. Seems like a fairly obvious call for action if I've ever seen one. Not that we should just stop researching climate change, of course.

      -matthew

      --
      "THERE IS NO JUSTICE, THERE IS ONLY ME." -Death
    44. Re:I Don't Buy It by 14CharUsername · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Actually a major point many people miss about the oil exporting countries is that most of the wealth is concentrated in the hands of very few people. These people are the Saudi royal family, some sheiks, sultans, etc. And what do these people spend their money on? Luxuries like expensive cars, palaces all over the world and whatever is left over gets invested. And what do they invest in? Western corporations.

      So really our dependence on oil isn't really transferring much overseas. It's just concentrating wealth into the hands of fewer people. Renewable energy sources would disperse wealth to many people across the country since you'd have to farm stuff for biodiesel and the construction of windmills would require a lot of labour. This means you're going to have to pay working class people instead of sending money off to rich sheiks who will invest it in our companies and build expensive resorts for our elite to stay at. You don't want to give people jobs at the expense of the wealthy elite do you? What are you a communist?

    45. Re:I Don't Buy It by AlanS2002 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Now, we know that increasing the Co2 levels increase plant growth. There are conflicting opinions to how much is ideal. So what if we remove all the Co2 and the plants go back to preindustrial production and we have a shortage of food?

      Stopping the use of fossil fuels will not remove CO2 from the atmosphere and it would no doubt take quite a while for the extra we've put in the atmosphere to be removed through natural mechanisms.
      I do understand what you're saying and I've thought it sometimes myself. I just don't think it's all that expectable that reducing our usage of fossil fuels would end up worse for us as against keeping on going the way we are.

      --
      Not all conservatives are stupid,
      but it is true that most stupid people are conservative.
      - Hume
    46. Re:I Don't Buy It by Stephan+Schulz · · Score: 2, Informative

      I know you pulled those figures out of your hat, but let's consider. If the cost of energy increases by 25%, that means the cost of everything increases by 10-25% (depending on what fraction of a widget is labor versus what fraction is materials). Everything.
      How do you arive at that quote? To go up 25% on a 25% energy increase, all of the cost of a product would have to be energy. But energy is actually very cheap in out society. The most expensive part of nearly everything is labour cost. Raw materials is another biggy, and, depending on how you calculate, refinancing of investments (factories, machines,...). I'd be suprised if even a doubling of energy prices would create even 5% inflation.
      --

      Stephan

    47. Re:I Don't Buy It by cayenne8 · · Score: 2, Funny
      "I've seen otherwise rational individuals goaded into attacking people with taunts and insults."

      Now...go away...or I shall taunt you a second time....

      :-)

      --
      Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.........
    48. Re:I Don't Buy It by ajs · · Score: 4, Insightful

      "The UN predicts several centimeters of raised sea-level over the coming century. That's what you're concerned about?"


      Yep, there is where most people live. That means, it's where most people have everything they own. They may be able to escape, our economy, not.

      This is exactly what I fear in this sort of discussion... Do yourself a favor, go get a topographical map, and measure on it, from both the high and low tide marks, which are usually on the order of a METER apart, a "few centimeters" (that is, a small number, more than 3... say 10). Now, how much land on that topographical map is within your measurement.... go. Try it out. Oh, you'll find that most such maps are measured off in >1 meter increments....

      Yes, that's right. A rise in sea levels of 10cm would be very close to noise in the tidal fluctuation. It does mean that storm surges that didn't used to affect your beachfront-house might. It does mean that storm drains in some cities might be in trouble during storms. That's the extent of the concern. But just watch the news and they'll sing you any sort of dire prediction you like!

      Places like New Orleans and Amsterdam are in more trouble, though. Such places actually exist BELOW the water line, and constantly run the risk of flooding. They WILL be flooded someday, and a 10cm rise in oceans certainly puts them in greater immediate risk, so there's your imminent danger model. Just be clear that you're talking about specific problems, not "most people."

      "The fact that fertile growing regions might shift north by a few hundred miles?"


      Give me a single piece of evidence that says that increasing the temperature (but not solar power) increases the fertility of land (I can give you several examples of the contrary). Permanently frozen lands excluded.

      ,

      There are plenty of areas in the northern parts of North America, Asia and parts of Europe that aren't suitable for growing most crops because of the mean temperature, not the fertility of the land. When the temperatures go up, those areas WILL be suitable for growing (are now for heartier crops).

      I'm horribly ignorant of the fertility of the colder regions of South America, so I can't tell you anything about that.

      There is also the huge climate change, that will probably obsolet a lot of our housing investiment and take a lot of people lifes, the increase on wet of places that already have problems with it (that will probably be the most affected), and possible problems with the atmosphere (more tornadoes) and sea currents. Not to talk about the disruption that is already happenning at sea life.


      I don't think it is a good idea to gamble on that.

      Let's be specific. What lives will be taken, and how. Exactly. Cite examples. I'm not buying it.
    49. Re:I Don't Buy It by dr+hetzer · · Score: 2

      In science, credibility arises from peer reviewed publications, not lawsuits and publicity. One's credentials in a field are accumulated slowly, by publishing original work in professional journals where it can be carefully examined and evaluated by other scientists. They then may cite your your work in their own publications. The number of publications you have, and the number of times they are cited, is a measure of your impact on a field. Universities use this information to decide tenure and promotion. and granting agencies use this to see if you have the background and skills to perform the research you propose.

      A quick search of Science Citation Index, the major database of scientific publications across disciplines, yields 5 publications in referenced journals for Ball, T, University of Winnipeg. These date from 1983 to 1994. They were cited a total of 21 times in scientific papers in the last 24 years.

      This is not an impressive publication record. Also, the low number of citations indicates Dr Ball's work has had little impact in the field.

      Scientists are supposed to be skeptical. They are also supposed to subject their work to rigorous peer review. Instead, Dr Ball seems to have gone for the lawsuit and PR release model of scientific discourse. Like the previous poster, I'd call his story emotional noise and not good science.

    50. Re:I Don't Buy It by syphax · · Score: 2, Informative

      In the US, natural gas is the #2 fossil fuel for generating electricity, behind coal. Oil is used somewhat, but first went out of fashion after the OPEC thing in the 1970's. Oil now generates less than 3% of our electricity.

      As for natural gas, read this:

      The average emissions rates in the United States from natural gas-fired generation are: 1135 lbs/MWh of carbon dioxide, 0.1 lbs/MWh of sulfur dioxide, and 1.7 lbs/MWh of nitrogen oxides. Compared to the average air emissions from coal-fired generation, natural gas produces half as much carbon dioxide, less than a third as much nitrogen oxides, and one percent as much sulfur oxides at the power plant. In addition, the process of extraction, treatment, and transport of the natural gas to the power plant generates additional emissions.


      Coal is cheap and abundant in the US (and China, and India...). Those are its advantages. Otherwise, it is an environmental nightmare, from mine to smokestack. If you fully internalize its costs, it might not appear so cheap.

      There are reasons for using coal for electricity. Cleanliness is not one of them. Putting the word "clean" in front of the word "coal" doesn't instantly make it so.

      --
      Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Stories
    51. Re:I Don't Buy It by ajs · · Score: 3, Informative

      Considering that it is still the case that solar intensity decreased slightly for most of the time that this warming took place, exactly what process do you think is at work on Mars that has any relevance at all to the Earth's climate? Do we need a model for the forcers in order to theorize their existence? It seems to me that we didn't have a model for global warming when we started theorizing its existence, and now that that theory is pretty solid, we're developing new, related theories. One observation is that Mars and Earth show similar warming trends... if they are, then there are some scenarios under which they are related. Could be increased magnetic field strength. Could be changes in the solar wind. Could be all sorts of things (keeping in mind that solar astrophysicists are VERY careful these days about saying anything that could involve them in a controversial debate about terrestrial temperature changes... whole institutions have seen their funding dry up over that sort of thing).

      What's important is that we have an observation that needs more investigation.
    52. Re:I Don't Buy It by syphax · · Score: 2, Interesting


      Where to start....

      Oil went from $17 a barrel or so in 2002 to around $70 or so last summer (source

      Let's think of an energy-intensive industry that's based primarily on oil. Let's say, airlines. By your logic, flight costs should have increased by 165% to 400+% in that time. I don't know about you, but I fly a lot for work, and I didn't see this. And it's not like airline prices aren't dynamic.

      And how you frame the argument...

      a) Sure looks like the science is continuing toward a done deal- do take the time to look into the 'it's all the sun' argument. Start with 'solar variation' and 'Attribution_of_recent_climate_change' at Wikipedia.

      b) If a), then b). The biosphere is pretty good at regulating things like CO2 level as long as it's not getting pushed too hard (see: status quo)

      c) Cooler planet? Who said anything about a cooler planet? The concern is to what degree the planet is hotter.

      If by 'enliven' tundra you mean melt it and release all the methane that's locked up in there (thereby enhancing warming), then I agree.

      My personal opinion is that reducing carbon intensity is a reasonable strategy that hedges our bets over climate uncertainty, and does not have to doom our economy. For example, in the US we can go a long way with energy conservation and efficiency, things that generally have a reasonable ROI. The US is currently 40th or so among countries in terms of emissions per unit GDP (and the difference is not attributable simply to industry mix, pop. density, etc.).

      Unfortunately, debate about global warming is driven so strongly (on both sides) by ideology, that discussion on forums like ./ is becoming a real PITA

      --
      Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Stories
    53. Re:I Don't Buy It by Paradox · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Yeah, if the price of energy rose by 25%, absolutely nobody would start thinking about using less energy for a change.


      Yeah. Because everyone has that option. My fossil fuel consumption is a direct function of my commute. Mass transit is not an option, because I'd also need a bike, and it'd be stolen almost immediately near the mass transit station. My energy consumption is relatively fixed. I have enough to run a laptop most of the time, and a bit extra for basic cooling and heating.

      Are you going to tell everyone with outdate consumer utilities (radio, television, refrigerator, etc.) to fuck off and buy newer, more efficient models? Even if they cannot afford them? Will you volunteer to sacrifice from your lifestyle to bring everyone else up to par? So much for universal health care and cheaper higher-level education, eh?

      You act like people are wantonly wasting energy left and right, with careless abandon. The real story is far grimmer. But when your only agenda is political tongue-lashing and grabs for yet more governmental power, I guess you can afford to discard reality. Americans are all so wasteful! Nevermind our industrialization is decreasing, and nevermind that global measures like Kyoto conveniently ignore countries like China that are rapidly becoming major impacts on the global ecological stage.

      Help us, Lars T. You're our only hope.
      --
      Slashdot. It's Not For Common Sense
    54. Re:I Don't Buy It by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Costs are very relative.

      For example:
      http://www.aau.edu/aau/MasseyCharts.pdf

      an experienced PHD earned under $20,000 in 1950.
      an experienced PHD earned about $33,000 in 1960.
      an experienced PHD earned about $40,000 in 1970.

      In all three cases, they were earning VERY good money.

      From
      http://www.fiftiesweb.com/pop/prices-1950.htm
      House: $14,500
      Average income: $3,216
      Ford car: $1339-$2262
      Philco model 1403 TV: $199
      Admiral "home entertainment" TV system: $549.50
      12" records: $4.85
      10" records: $2.85
      Milk: $.82
      Gas: $.20
      Bread $.14
      Postage stamp: $.03
      Pumpkins : $.02 cents a lb
      Campbell's Pork & Beans - (2) 1 lb. cans: $.25
      Sirloin steak: $.77 lb
      Kraft Mayonnaise - quart jar: $.62.

      ----
      So in 1950, they could afford a typical house on a single years earnings, and a typical car on 1/9th of their income.

      ----
      If energy went up 25% and everything (including salaries) went up 25%, it would be a net wash.

      ---
      So it only matters if something doesn't go up.

      Cars are about the same price as they were in 1950.
      The average person earns $40,000 today.
      A cheap car is $12,000->$14000 with tt&l or about 1/3 of salary.
      A cheap car then was $1,339 ir about a third of their annual salary.

      ---
      Basically income is up from $3,300 to $40,000 (or about 12x).
      Anything that hasn't increased in price by 12x has gotten cheaper.
      So gas should be $2.40. Hmm. looks on target.
      A Top of the line TV should be about $6,000. Looks about right. Maybe TV's are even cheaper.
      Campbells pork & beans should be $3.00. I think they are about $1.80. So a bargain (tho in 1950 you were getting much healthier, REAL, unhormoned, antibiotic'd meat... so maybe we should compare it to organic foods)
      ---

      And our houses are bigger (My 1955 house is tiny compared to my friends 2002 house).

      ---
      Inflation will get you bad if you retire and don't leave about a third of your money in equities.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    55. Re:I Don't Buy It by Myopic · · Score: 2, Funny

      I agree completely. When I look back at history, I'm really glad people took a proactive stance instead of letting certain things get out of hand! For instance, by nipping witchcraft in the bud, the good people of Salem, Massachusetts saved us all from eternal damnation. Also, thank God we undertook the Crusades and definitively crushed our enemies, because otherwise we might have a downright hostile relationship with the Muslim world. And remember those Luddites who destroyed the weaving looms, they saved us from a future where all our cloth is made by machines instead of by humans, the right and proper way. I could go on and on and on with how much I agree with you!

      Yes, I am deeply thankful that our ancestors had such keen insight in predicting the future, and I welcome our current opportunity to uphold this grand human tradition.

    56. Re:I Don't Buy It by rtechie · · Score: 2, Insightful

      but to me it seems a shakey bet to wager so much wealth on the chance that a) global warming is manmade, b) global warming is reversible by a change in our behavior, and c) we are better off with a cooler planet. Any of those three is, right now, a crapshoot;

      It's not a crap shoot.

      The current global warming trend is caused by human activity, primarily the use of fossil fuels. That is an absolute fact. It's about as well established as Newtonian physics at this point.

      And even if it weren't, what about acid raid, air pollution, the asthma epidemic, ground water contamination, oil spills, species destruction, etc. All problems caused by fossil fuels. Are you going to claim that acid rain doesn't exist? That air pollution hasn't caused an epidemic of asthma and other breathing problems?

      There are plenty of great reasons to reduce or eliminate use of fossil fuels besides global warming.

      for example, a warmer planet will enliven a great deal of otherwise useless tundra.

      Have you thought this through even a little bit? Have you considered what would happen to tropical areas (they're turning into deserts)? Or the devastation this will cause to global coastlines (where most people live)? The destruction of habitat that would lead to a (bigger) mass extinction? Climatological shifts tend to be what causes massive extinctions. If that's what we're seeing here it doesn't bode well for the future of the human race. Many people don't seem to grasp how closely the world is to the edge of mass starvation.

    57. Re:I Don't Buy It by Bluesman · · Score: 2, Insightful

      My problem is not with environmental regulation in general, but with the logic that we must do something immediately because the consequences "might" be catastrophic if we don't.

      This isn't an argument, it's an absence of logic with an appeal to emotion.

      Any rational decision should take into account the benefit versus the cost, as well as the risk involved of making things worse inadvertently. Advocating any and all action without any cost/benefit analysis is irresponsible.

      Unfortunately this kind of rational analysis seems to be in short supply, which is why my eyes glaze over when I hear the words "climate change," because what usually follows is some vapid emotional appeal with plenty of whining and few viable alternative solutions offered.

      The biggest question I have is, what's the goal here? Is it to save human lives? There are far more effective ways than driving an electric car to do that. Saying "millions may starve" doesn't really impress me when millions starve today already. Why not fix that problem, which definitely exists, rather than one that might not be a problem at all?

      --
      If moderation could change anything, it would be illegal.
    58. Re:I Don't Buy It by ckedge · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Caveat - I've never been a denier and I appreciate not using more resources than we have to. Hell I don't own a car. Now that it's more accepted fact that the recent warming is caused by us, the next question on my mind is - is it *really* a bad thing?

      Seriously!

      Have they *really* done a proper study comparing how much land will be rendered inarable as compared to how much more land will become arable? Have they factored in how easy it is for entire human populations to shift if there's an economic reason to move?

      Or have they just figured out what might happen to certain parts of land we currently use, and then scream the sky will fall?

      Have you ever looked at the 100 kiloyear cycle, where 10,000 years ago all of Canada was under a kilometer of ice? Ever heard of the Canadian Breadbasket? The massive wheat fields of western Canada? To be honest if human activity PREVENTS and BREAKS the 100 kiloyear cycle, I"M ALL FOR IT. I don't want to see all of Canada and all of Northern Europe and Russia covered with a 1km thick ice shield in 50,000 years. Do you?

      You know damn well everyone is merely afraid of "change". OOooooh evil evil change. God forbid the millions of people who live in Bangladesh should have to move. Oh wait, really we should already be moving them, considering how many die EVERY SINGLE FUCKING YEAR from flooding. So why haven't they been moved yet? OH WAIT - it's because there are political borders and the people in Western Canada and the Central USA would never ever ever let them in (repeat with every single other country in the entire fucking world.

      Maybe the first thing we should do is figure out how to get rid of:

        a) economic and social inequity

        b) removing political borders that prevent people from moving to nicer places where the weather is perfect for all of us all year round - as opposed to having to live in Bangladesh or Canada -- Yes fucking Canada! It's fucking cold here 75% of the time! Who the hell in their right mind would settle here unless they were being persecuted or fleeing poverty or searching for riches or cheap land in an agrarian world of the late 1800's?

      We're all modern now - there's no reason we can't all move down to and settle the northern fringes of South America where it's 15 deg C or more above all fricking year. Maybe we'll come up and vacation in Canada in July and August when it's 25/30/35 deg C here.

    59. Re:I Don't Buy It by Technician · · Score: 2, Insightful

      And what iof nothing needs to be done about it?

      From what I have been following recently, I think you are right on the money.

      It is like noticing 2 tire tracks on a path and noticing they are never more than 1 foot apart and concluding that what ever made the tracks had small wheels that are no more than 1 foot apart. Then assumptions are made regarding what direction they tarveled and such.

      When you look at the SAME data with the knowledge of a bicycle, you know the rear tire always points directly at the front tire. You also know the front tire is a fixed distance from the rear tire. Using that data, you can prove the distance is more that a foot apart between the tires by finding the distance the track of the rear wheel directly points to part of the path of the front wheel. Then you can with high accuracy tell which way the bicycle went as only one direction has the rear wheel pointing at the front wheel track at a fixed distance.

      The Inconvienent truth film pointed out quite well the track of the CO2 and the temprature is related, but the film ignored the fact temprature led the CO2 level, not followed it.

      A rise in temprature causes less CO2 to remain dissolved in the ocean. A drop in temprature causes more CO2 to be dissolved in the ocean.

      Another thing the film does is totaly ignore other indicators. Take a look at the history of the Mars polar ice cap. Hmm our polar ice cap follows the exact same pattern. Who on Mars is screwing up their weather? Maybe there is another factor and the political machine simply chooses to ignore the facts.

      Oh, Am I blowing smoke or is there data?

      It is here;
      For CO2 and temprature records;
      http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=9005566792 811497638&hl=en
      For Polar Ice and Mars;
      http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/07 0228-mars-warming.html
      A google search will bring up solar cycles in relation to Earth and Mars cycles for those who want the facts instead of the politics of the day.

      --
      The truth shall set you free!
  2. This really begs the question... by Seoulstriker · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This really begs the question: are the climate scientists who dissent really tools for corporations or are the climate scientists who advocate (consent to global warming caused by man) really tools for government/special interest groups?

    --
    I am defenseless. Use your button. Mod me down with all of your hatred.
    1. Re:This really begs the question... by Reapman · · Score: 2

      Both?

      Regardless of what side you feel is right, you'd have to be blind to not realize that there are groups out there on BOTH sides that will do what they can, moral or not, to find proof saying they're right and the others are wrong. I have no doubt that big business gets scientists to say (via grants or whatever) what they want, just like I have no doubt that there are special interest groups that do the exact same or try to (a bit harder I'll admit if you don't have the billions the oil industry has)

      Hence why your always best to investigate BOTH sides, then come up with the truth, which is usually in the middle. Never take anything at faace value.

      Or maybe that's just me...

    2. Re:This really begs the question... by slashkitty · · Score: 2, Informative
      http://skepdic.com/begging.html

      You have no idea what begging the question means. You're welcome to ask other questions though.

      --
      -- these are only opinions and they might not be mine.
  3. Well they can always get funding by AlanS2002 · · Score: 4, Funny

    from oil companies to speak at conferences full of other climate change deniers.

    --
    Not all conservatives are stupid,
    but it is true that most stupid people are conservative.
    - Hume
  4. nail -- meet hammer! by mikesimaska · · Score: 5, Insightful

    from the original article... " the theory of man-made global warming had become a "religion", forcing alternative explanations to be ignored. "

    --
    ---- mike simaska
  5. Meanwhile in the real world by WillAffleckUW · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Billions of people in Bangladesh, India and China will lose their homes and be forced to illegally migrate to other countries because of the climate "scientists" who deny global warming is happening.

    But that's the practical side of it.

    Ignore the hurricanes, tsunamis flooding Bangladesh, and the loss of island nations worldwide, if you must. But don't call your "belief" science.

    --
    -- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
    1. Re:Meanwhile in the real world by CmdrGravy · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'm afraid you're talking nonsense, people may be forced to migrate because of the effects of a global climate change but not because of scientists disagreeing with the popular scientific consenus.

      Scientists like this guy aren't denying that we are undergoing a climate change but they do disagree about the underlying cause of the change which is something they are perfectly entitled to do.

      Having watched the documentary mentioned in the article I have some sympathy with the viewpoint that this whole issue has been hijacked by a number of pressure groups and political associations which is leading to an overly emotional and hysterical treatment of the entire issue.

      Personally I am in two minds on the subject, I see a lot of people saying the case is comprehensively proven who want to decide what action we should now take and also a lot of people saying that the case isn't yet proven and there are a number of scientific arguments which still need to be overcome.

      What I would like is for the hysteria and the political posturing to stop and instead promote a more balanced approach to considering the scientific arguments.

      Even if global warming is largely due to human activities I don't believe and I have not seen any evidence to support the view that the effects are going to be anywhere near as catastrophic as is made out in various news reports and in the media, e.g. huge tidal waves towering over the Thames Barrier and destroying the City of London seem to me to be based more on a need for sensastional television than anything else.

    2. Re:Meanwhile in the real world by ArcherB · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Ignore the hurricanes, tsunamis flooding Bangladesh, and the loss of island nations worldwide, if you must. But don't call your "belief" science.

      You just shot down your own argument.
      Hurricanes: Wasn't this last hurricane season supposed to be the worst in history due to global warming. How did that work out?
      Tsunamis: Are you saying that earthquakes are caused by global warming? Please! Stop blaming everything on GW. It just makes you look (more) stupid.
      Loss of nation states: Name one nation that is now underwater.

      --
      There is no "I disagree" mod for a reason. Flamebait, Troll, and Overrated are not substitutes.
    3. Re:Meanwhile in the real world by Matteo522 · · Score: 2, Interesting
      Morals are relative. Some people may die if we do nothing and allow global warming to continue (assuming that man-made global warming is in fact the dominant factor). But remember that "doing something" means curbing and possibly scaling back development, which has its own moral implications as well.

      While you can probably live by using less electricity and using public transportation, tell starving African villagers than they are not entitled to burn the oil and coal in their own country. For every person who could die from "global warming flooding" or whatever, there's another person who will die from starvation due to scaling back development or, if they're lucky enough to eat, from breathing in pollutants caused by cooking their food indoors with fire because they have no electricity.

      There's a romanticism involved with "going back to being one with nature" or living a more peasant-like life. Explain that to those actually living it.

    4. Re:Meanwhile in the real world by CmdrGravy · · Score: 2, Insightful
      First of all you have no idea at all what my present behaviour pattern is but assuming you are meaning to address the behaviour patterns of the average Britain then you will have to concede that our behaviour as a society changes constantly as a matter of course, It's hard for you to argue that we prefer to cling to some static behavioural pattern and need to invent excuses to justify this stasis. Look at the last 10 years, or the last 200 years and you will see that there is much more evidence of society changing than there is of it resisting change.

      Once again, if we are considering embarking on a programme which will effect a global change it seems to me that it is better to make sure we understand both the impact and the risks associated with either making those changes or not. Please explain what the problem is with this approach ?

      I am not arguing that global warming does not exist, neither is the scientist in the article and neither were any of the scientists taking part in the documentary mentioned in the article. We need to understand what is driving this change, how its likely to play out and the risks associated with it and we do not need to be pressured into premature and ill considered actions which may have negative impacts elsewhere.

      I think in general it's a good idea to take action yourself to live more efficiently, energy saving light bulbs, riding or cycling to work etc but these are actions we can take which are not going to have a impact elsewhere. What we need to be careful about is larger scale reactions which people suggest our governments should be taking.

      Actually, if you changed your behavior today, you would still have 20-40 years of continuing negative impacts. They would slow very gradually, and then, assuming the world's oceans and seas don't become too acidic to support sea life (fish, coral, etc), stop accelerating. I doubt you have any evidence at all to back this claim up with the level of specificity you are predicting.

      As I said I'm not ignoring anything whereas you seem to be ignoring everything you hear which you don't agree with.

  6. Science Should Always Be Up For Debate by MarkPNeyer · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Saying "we will not debate this" accomplishes nothing. All science is up for debate. If the science is solid, it will withstand all criticisms, no matter how ludicrous.

    --

    My blog
    1. Re:Science Should Always Be Up For Debate by rlp · · Score: 2, Interesting

      > the particular science that shows that carbon dioxide absorbs in the IR
      > where O2 doesn't isn't reallly up for debate. You can show it with mathematics
      > or with IR spectroscopy. It's some of the most solid science that there is.

      Of course so does water vapor. Therefore we must ban dihydrogen monoxide.

      --
      [Insert pithy quote here]
    2. Re:Science Should Always Be Up For Debate by Seumas · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Science should be up for debate; not for sale.

      And forgive me if I don't take the skepticism over global warming seriously from the same crowd that believes people can rise from the dead and that while the massive scientific proof behind global warming is ludicrous and unreasonable, they're pretty sure that lesbians cause natural disasters.

    3. Re:Science Should Always Be Up For Debate by rlp · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Hypothesis: human produced CO2 is causing global warming.

      Fact: CO2 absorbs IR radiation from sun producing greenhouse effect.
      Fact: H2O vapor and methane also produce greenhouse effect to greater degree than CO2.
      Fact: Average temperature of Earth has been increasing in last 25 years.
      Fact: CO2 level in atmosphere has been increasing during same period.
      Fact: Humans produce CO2 by burning fossil fuels (and exhaling)

      In order to prove hypothesis, we must deal with the following assumptions:

      Assumption 1: Solar radiation has remained constant OR warming cannot be completely explained
      by changes in solar radiation

      Assumption 2: Atmospheric water content has remained constant or warming cannot be completely explained by changes in atmospheric water content.

      Assumption 3: Ditto for methane

      Assumption 4: Bulk of increased CO2 level cannot be accounted for by natural CO2 releases

      Once the assumptions are dealt with, we must also show that why temperature increases on other planets and temperature changes during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age are irrelevant.

      So yes, CO2 aborbs IR. But no, the case is not closed.

      --
      [Insert pithy quote here]
    4. Re:Science Should Always Be Up For Debate by Ambitwistor · · Score: 4, Informative

      Assumption 1: Solar radiation has remained constant OR warming cannot be completely explained
      by changes in solar radiation Warming cannot be completely explained by changes in solar radiation. Solar variations contribute, but not by much. See Figure SPM-2 of the 2007 IPCC FAR SPM report, as well as the 2006 review article by Foukal et al. in Nature.

      Assumption 2: Atmospheric water content has remained constant or warming cannot be completely explained by changes in atmospheric water content. Warming cannot be completely explained by changes in atmospheric water content. In fact, atmospheric water content is largely determined by temperature: if there is warming, more water will evaporate and enhance the amount of warming (the climate sensitivity), but it doesn't cause a warming trend in the first place because of how quickly it equilibrates (in climatology jargon, water vapor is not a "forcing", it is a "feedback"). (See here.)

      Assumption 3: Ditto for methane Warming cannot be completely explained by changes in atmospheric methane. Methane contributes, but not as much as CO2. Furthermore, much of the increase in methane from pre-industrial times is also due to human activity, particularly pollution, animal husbandry, and land use changes.

      Assumption 4: Bulk of increased CO2 level cannot be accounted for by natural CO2 releases Easily demonstrated, as the CO2 generated by fossil fuel burning has a unique isotopic signature: we know directly that most of the increased CO2 is from fossil fuels. See here.

      Once the assumptions are dealt with, we must also show that why temperature increases on other planets and temperature changes during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age are irrelevant. Other planets: see e.g. this post.

      LIA and MWP: the reasons for the climate change in those periods are different from the conditions today. The LIA is attributed mostly to greater volcanic activity and less solar activity than today. The MWP is at least partially attributable to an increase in solar activity. The increase in solar activity in modern times, however, is not large enough to account for the recent warming (see above).

      So yes, CO2 aborbs IR. But no, the case is not closed. The case is far closer to closed than you apparently believe.

      Note, in particular, that the timing, rate, and magnitude of the global warming agrees well with corresponding changes in CO2, and that all climate models fail dramatically at reproducing the global warming if you leave out anthropogenic forcings — far more so than if you leave out other forcings instead, particularly when it comes to the climate over the last 40 years. Human activity has become the dominant effect upon global mean temperatures.
    5. Re:Science Should Always Be Up For Debate by Ambitwistor · · Score: 2, Insightful

      We cannot actually reduce the water vapor in the atmosphere directly, since that is determined by the global temperature via its saturation properties. If we want to reduce the greenhouse contribution of water vapor, we need to do that by reducing the global temperature, and the water vapor will re-equilibrate. We can, however, reduce CO2 emissions and consequently the global temperature.

      If we want to alter the course of global warming, it is necessary to do so through factors we can actually control. "Banning dihydrogen monoxide" is not a realistic solution even if it did work.

    6. Re:Science Should Always Be Up For Debate by Ambitwistor · · Score: 2, Informative

      (a) disagree with one another by a factor of three, In the main climate variables like temperature, modern GCMs do better than that as far as the global means are concerned.

      (b) even their least pessimistic predictions have been substantially in excess of the observed temperature rise, Untrue. See, for instance, Figure SPM-4 of the recent IPCC report.

      (c) depend upon the fine tuning of a large number of parameters Only partially true. They no longer rely on things like flux corrections. They do parametrize local physics like clouds. However, their parametrization does not allow them to fit any possible data set, which is what you would expect if they are overfitting the data. Notably, you cannot realistically fine tune them to fit the data if you leave out either natural or anthropogenic forcings.

      (d) do not calculate error bars, Untrue. Ensemble runs of GCMs are now routine, and when quantification of uncertainty is important, you can turn to EMICs.

      (e) are calibrated against a temperature record that is fraught with error (e.g.: weather stations largely cover only the relatively small area of well inhabited areas of the globe; Weather stations demonstrably do well at reconstructing global means as compared with data taken from remote land and sea locations by weather stations as well as other instruments.

      there is the urban heat island effect; Shown in numerous studies to be utterly negligible to global means.

      there is disagreement between satellite, balloon,and weather staion records; Most of that disagreement has been resolved since the last IPCC report. In particular, the discrepancies noted in the last report regarding balloon-borne and satellite measurements of tropospheric temperature are now consistent with the surface temperature record.

      temperature records do not go back very far; results obtained via proxies such as tree rings are very questionable and hard to connect to the instrumental record), Proxy results are not hard to connect to the instrumental record, and multiproxy methods lead to consistent reconstructions.

      (f) essentially assume that CO2 is the *only* climate forcing agent, Untrue to the point of being an outright lie. Modern AOGCMs take into account all major GHGs from both natural and anthropogenic sources, solar variations, volcanic forcings, anthropogenic aerosols and particulate matter, and so on, not to mention the numerous feedback effects at work.

      (g) assume vastly more pessimistic population and economic future growth than professional demographers and economists support. The SRES scenarios are out of date, I agree. But they are also not "vastly" inaccurate, and not everybody uses the SRES scenarios anymore. (The GCMs mostly do, though.)

      It sounds like most of your criticisms are themselves outdated by 5-10 years.
    7. Re:Science Should Always Be Up For Debate by Ambitwistor · · Score: 2, Informative

      That's my biggest beef with the global climate change models. It's also wholly untrue. GCMs take into account numerous forcing mechanisms.

      One of the results of the three day 'no-fly' over the US in Sep 2001 was that nights were about 1C cooler due to the lack of contrails - clear skies have a lower sky temperature than cloudy skies. The cloud contrail effect is a feedback mechanism, not a forcing agent. GCMs do take into account many feedbacks, but not contrails. They are left out because a number of followup studies on the 9/11 results have indicated that the global average contrail forcing is rather small on an annual basis. I can try to dig up some of those studies if you like.

      What I'd like to see is some consistent estimates of how much warming is caused by CO2, how much by methane, how much by CFC's, how much by contrails and for good measure, how much by reducing particulates. Usually those figures are given in terms of forcings, not in terms of warming. You can see such results in Figure SPM-2 of the recent IPCC report.
  7. Flat Earth Society by krbvroc1 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    This raises the larger question...At what point do you stop funding the scientists investigating that the Earth is flat? At some point, the evidence becomes overwhelming and those who ignore it really are 'deniers'. I'm not sure about this particular scientist, but a lot of those skeptics are funded by the very corporations who have a vested interest in doing nothing. For how long was there a group of scientist who claimed that cigarette smoking could not be linked to any negative health effect data?

    1. Re:Flat Earth Society by UbuntuDupe · · Score: 5, Insightful

      At what point do you stop funding the scientists investigating that the Earth is flat?

      When they stop making testable, correct, non-trivial predictions?

  8. This is really stupid. by FlyingSquidStudios · · Score: 3, Funny

    This guy actually believes he's targeted for death? When scientists on his side of the spectrum start dying off mysteriously, I'll care.

  9. Global Warming Documentary by dylan_- · · Score: 2, Informative

    These guys are back public eye because they recently appeared in a UK Channel4 documentary called "The Great Global Warming Swindle". Basically a rehash of all the outdated silly arguments you've heard a thousand times before. You can read the RealClimate response here if you like.

    But that's pretty boring, science type stuff. What's much more fun is watching the right-wing contingent defending this piece of crap, proclaiming its truth and accuracy, when the film was produced by members of the Revolutionary Communist Party! Regular contributors to the RCP's journal, "Living Marxism" no less.

    What an interesting meeting of minds.

    --
    Igor Presnyakov stole my hat
    1. Re:Global Warming Documentary by SirTalon42 · · Score: 2, Informative

      You do realize realclimate.org is owned by Environmental Media Services which is owned by a Fenton Communications which is an advertising company?

    2. Re:Global Warming Documentary by dylan_- · · Score: 2, Informative

      No, it's not. Read this before you start making things up.

      --
      Igor Presnyakov stole my hat
  10. He's not alone by slashkitty · · Score: 4, Interesting
    The Great Global Warming Swindle

    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=9005566792 811497638&hl=en

    It covers both the politicization of the issue, and many scientific facts ignored by global warming films.

    --
    -- these are only opinions and they might not be mine.
    1. Re:He's not alone by LionMage · · Score: 5, Informative

      Kind of interesting that "The Great Global Warming Swindle" gets mentioned a lot in the comments on this article. So I might as well mention the RealClimate debunking of this documentary (mentioned briefly in another comment thread).

    2. Re:He's not alone by srmalloy · · Score: 4, Insightful

      You have to admire some of the handwaves that the RealClimate article resorts to in order to preserve the global-warming doctrine. "Temperature leads CO2 by 800 years in the ice cores. Not quite as true as they said, but basically correct; however they misinterpret it. The way they said this you would have thought that T and CO2 are anti-correlated; but if you overlay the full 400/800 kyr of ice core record, you can't even see the lag because its so small." It's either true or it's not. The RealClimate site admits that the "Great Global Warming Swindle" statement is correct, but that when you look at the 800,000 year range of the ice cores, this lag is insignificant. Excuse me, but if you make the claim "X causes Y; just look at these graphs, where you see X and Y moving in similar patterns", then ignoring the fact that X happens after Y makes your entire claim invalid.

      If increasing CO2 levels cause increased global temperatures, then the historical record would show that the CO2 levels increased before the temperature rise. But the temperature rises actually occurred prior to the CO2 rise; making the claim that an effect is due to a cause that happened after the effect makes you look like an idiot. If the CO2 level changes mimic the temperature changes from 800 years earlier -- but not the current temperature changes -- over the measurement period, then it doesn't matter that the lag is 0.1% of the measurement range, then the CO2 level changes are not a cause of the temperature changes.

    3. Re:He's not alone by jwhitener · · Score: 2, Informative

      You cut off your quote of realclimate.org just one small sentence early....

      "The correct interpretation of this is well known: that there is a T-CO2 feedback:"
      http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004 /12/co2-in-ice-cores/

      How did this person get modded +5 for taking a partial quote and ignoring the explanation that was a mere one sentence below his inaccurate tirade?

  11. Re:Earth IS warming, the WHY is almost unimportant by profplump · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The why become very important when it comes to "fixing" whatever the problem may be.

    If your house is on fire because your fuel oil tank is leaking and shorting out an electric line, water is probably a very bad solution, at least until you've turned off the power and done something to contain the oil.

  12. Re:More denial crapola on slashdot by slackmaster2000 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Somebody denied that C02 is a greenhouse gas?

    Straw man.

  13. They can hardly complain about by AlanS2002 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    people deriding them when they complain about 'both sides of the argument not being heard'. 'both sides of the argument being heard' implies that there is equal support/strength on both sides, which is simply not the case in this issue. The overwhelming consensus on this issue is that climate change is a phenomena brought about chiefly by societies burning of fossil fuels.

    --
    Not all conservatives are stupid,
    but it is true that most stupid people are conservative.
    - Hume
  14. They do agree its anthropogenic by benhocking · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The scientific community isn't saying that global warming isn't happening; they're just not agreeing about how it is being caused.
    Not true. They are in almost complete agreement that it is primarily anthropogenic in nature, and that greenhouse gases are the anthropogenic culprit. The evidence for this is overwhelming. Heck, even Lindzen says so:

    At some level, [that there is clear evidence of human influences on the climate system] has never been widely contested.

    While it [sort of] correlates to CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, it correlates to other things as well.
    Forget correlation. It's basic science. CO2 absorbs infrared radiation. Absorbing infrared radiation leads to an increased thermal equilibrium. We have increased the CO2 concentration by 100 ppmv. Over the last 800,000 years it has fluctuated between 180 ppmv (ice age) and 280 ppmv. It is now at 380 ppmv. Lest you argue that it could be the oceans releasing CO2 (people actually argue that), levels in the oceans are increasing too.

    But I do agree that there's just as much money to be made on the Green side of the fence as on the Exxon-Mobil side (or whatever).
    Really? You really believe that? On what basis do you make such a radical claim? What is the profit motive on the Green side of the fence and how does that come close to the profit motive on the ExxonMobil side of the fence? Luckily, ExxonMobil is gradually beginning to reconsider its position.
    --
    Ben Hocking
    Need a professional organizer?
    1. Re:They do agree its anthropogenic by Nutria · · Score: 5, Insightful
      Really? You really believe that? On what basis do you make such a radical claim?

      Grant money.

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    2. Re:They do agree its anthropogenic by benhocking · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Not true. They are in almost complete agreement that it is primarily anthropogenic in nature
      No, they're not.
      Can you name one climatologist who disagrees with that statement? If they're not in almost complete agreement, that should be an easy request. Just name one, and provide an article they've written which backs up your assertion.

      No, it's not, in fact most of it is correlative which is why you get terminology like relying on global "fingerprints," as in it's just an assumption based two things that look like they could be affecting each other but haven't been proven to with any direct evidence.
      Back in the 60's - when the correlational evidence was being masked by particulates - the evidence was already mounting. The underlying science is really quite simple. Because of the sheer number of feedback (positive and negative) systems it is really hard to determine the magnitude of the effect, but the existence is not in doubt, and nor is the fact that it is the dominant factor in our current climate change.
      --
      Ben Hocking
      Need a professional organizer?
    3. Re:They do agree its anthropogenic by johnlcallaway · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Let's also not forget the science that showed exposure to sunlight caused skin cancer, and that we should all stop going out in the sun.

      Then they discovered that 'Whoops .... going out in the sun creates Vitamin D which PREVENTS other types of cancer. It's OK to go out, just don't get burned'.

      Or eggs. Remember the butter/margarine debate?? 'Don't eat butter, it's bad for you. Eat margarine instead' followed by 'Whoops ... me bad ... margarine is bad too. Eat butter just not too much'.

      Our scientists don't have a very good track record in predicting what will happen in complex systems when things change. Decreasing mercury and lead pollution was a good idea, dropping CO2 emissions is also a good idea.

      Just step back a minute, breathe, and do what is sane. I heard some groups demanding a 80% reduction in CO2 emissions in 25 years.

      Oh well...the democrats (along with the Hollywood bleeding hearts) are back in the US, I'm sure there will be plenty of overreaction to make up for the under reaction for the last 8 years.

      --
      I rarely read replies, it's my opinion and if you thought about your opinion a little more, I'm OK with that.
    4. Re:They do agree its anthropogenic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Just one? I'll bite.

      Dr. David Legates, and a paper he published with Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas, "Estimation and representation of long-term (>40 year) trends of Northern-Hemisphere-gridded surface temperature: A note of caution"

      Dr. Legates is also the Delaware State Climatologist, and, unlike Michael Mann, actually has a degree in climatology. Also, before anyone brings up politics, Dr. Legates is a registered democrat, and was appointed to the state climatologist position by a democratic governor, who is now fairly upset that he isn't towing the party line on this particular issue. And lastly, all allegations of him receiving funding from oil companies are unsubstantiated.

      Furthermore, for a guy who seems to have a lot of science degrees, you seem to have some problems with simple logic. I'm trying to understand how you went from a quote that says human-made factors should have an effect on climate to the proclamation that "They are in almost complete agreement that it is primarily anthropogenic in nature". I mean, we know what CO2 does as a participating media in radiation problems. That doesn't mean we know that it drives the process.

    5. Re:They do agree its anthropogenic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative
      How about Dr. John Christy @ University of Alabama in Huntsville?

      Since November 1978, the Arctic atmosphere has warmed at a rate that is more than seven times faster than the average warming trend over the southern two-thirds of the globe.

      "It just doesn't look like global warming is very global," said Dr. John Christy, director of UAH's Earth System Science Center. "Obviously some part of the warming we've observed in the atmosphere over the past 27 years is due to enhanced greenhouse gases. Simple physics tells you that.

      "But even if you acknowledge the effects of greenhouse gases, when you look at this pattern of warming you have to say there must also be something else at work here.

      "The carbon dioxide from fossil fuels is distributed pretty evenly around the globe and not concentrated in the Arctic, so it doesn't look like we can blame greenhouse gases for the overwhelming bulk of the Northern Hemisphere warming over the past 27 years. The most likely suspect for that is a natural climate change or cycle that we didn't expect or just don't understand." You can read a portion of this yourself at this link
    6. Re:They do agree its anthropogenic by BiggerBoat · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Not true. They are in almost complete agreement that it is primarily anthropogenic in nature

      No, they're not.

      Can you name one climatologist who disagrees with that statement? If they're not in almost complete agreement, that should be an easy request. Just name one, and provide an article they've written which backs up your assertion.

      I'll name one: Lindzen, your own cite. This is one of the things that bugs me about these arguments: "it is primarily anthropogenic in nature" and "there is clear evidence of human influences on the climate system" are simply not the same. That humans are having some influence on the warming trend that is going on should be news enough. It's this apparent need to "alarmize" it beyond the science that's got so many of us annoyed.
  15. Problem is not the dissent... by AtlanticCarbon · · Score: 5, Insightful

    ... it's that the dissent is being irresponsibly over-exaggerated and manipulated by certain parties (namely the Bush administration). It's somewhat similar to holocaust or evolution denials. It's not a problem, perhaps even healthy, that there is dissent. However, if decision-makers start cherry-picking oddball positions to further their policy (like the Bush administration on the environment or evolution and Iran on the holocaust) then you have a problem. The problem is with the decision-makers, not the various individuals expressing their thoughts.

  16. Do Not Forget the REAL Debate Among the Scientists by moore.dustin · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Almost all of the skeptics or deniers only deny or are skeptical about the _cause_ of global warming, not the fact that the planet is indeed warming.

    Like many others areas of the world/media, /. likes to attack these same people for not seeing things their way. It is commonplace here to attack and mod down people who present other or counter evidence, no matter how valid it may be. The media has successfully nullified the scientific process when it comes to global warming. The media and political interests are causing global warming to be such a polarizing issue that any one person, or entity looking to present evidence counter to the what the media/politicians feed us, is going to think twice. The implications of publishing an article/paper counter to what many believe to be true are far reaching and could end your career.

    All I hope for is that the scientific process can be saved from the media in the future when issues like this come up. By that I mean issues that demand action based on conclusive scientific evidence of a problem. We could all certainly be wrong about global warming and if you do not at least concede that, then you too, are contributing to the fall of one of, if not the most important advancement of our modern society, the scientific process. (Sanitation puts up a good fight for #1 :) )

  17. Re:More denial crapola on slashdot by HappySqurriel · · Score: 4, Informative
    http://www.boston.com/news/science/articles/2006/0 8/30/mits_inconvenient_scientist/

    Indeed. I attended a week's worth of lectures on global warming at the Chautauqua Institution last month. Al Gore delivered the kickoff lecture, and, 10 years later, he reiterated Schneider's directive. There is no science on the other side, Gore inveighed, more than once. Again, the same message: If you hear tales of doubt, ignore them. They are simply untrue.

    I ask you: Are these convincing arguments? And directed at journalists, who are natural questioners and skeptics, of all people? What happens when you are told not to eat the apple, not to read that book, not to date that girl? Your interest is piqued, of course. What am I not supposed to know?

    Here's the kind of information the "scientific consensus" types don't want you to read. MIT's Alfred P. Sloan professor of meteorology Richard Lindzen recently complained about the "shrill alarmism" of Gore's movie "An Inconvenient Truth." Lindzen acknowledges that global warming is real, and he acknowledges that increased carbon emissions might be causing the warming -- but they also might not.

    "We do not understand the natural internal variability of climate change" is one of Lindzen's many heresies, along with such zingers as "the Arctic was as warm or warmer in 1940," "the evidence so far suggests that the Greenland ice sheet is actually growing on average," and `"Alpine glaciers have been retreating since the early 19th century, and were advancing for several centuries before that. Since about 1970, many of the glaciers have stopped retreating and some are now advancing again. And, frankly, we don't know why."

    While vacationing in Canada, I spotted a newspaper story that I hadn't seen in the United States. For no apparent reason, the state of California, Environmental Defense, and the Natural Resources Defense Council have dragged Lindzen and about 15 other global- warming skeptics into a lawsuit over auto- emissions standards. California et al . have asked the auto companies to cough up any and all communications they have had with Lindzen and his colleagues, whose research has been cited in court documents.

    "We know that General Motors has been paying for this fake science exactly as the tobacco companies did," says ED attorney Jim Marston. If Marston has a scintilla of evidence that Lindzen has been trafficking in fake science, he should present it to the MIT provost's office. Otherwise, he should shut up.

    "This is the criminalization of opposition to global warming," says Lindzen, who adds he has never communicated with the auto companies involved in the lawsuit. Of course Lindzen isn't a fake scientist, he's an inconvenient scientist. No wonder you're not supposed to listen to him.

    Inspite of what you may believe, there is a politicaly motivated movement to ensure that scientists that do not agree with the Global Warming Consensus are not heard ...

    How about you ask some of these people about whether there is not political agenda:

    Dr. Christopher Landsea:
    Leading expert in the field of hurricanes and tropical storms.
    National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

    - resigned as an author of the IPCC 2007 report, released earlier this month stating the IPCC was "motivated by pre-conceived agendas" and was "scientifically unsound."
    - wrote a lengthy and detailed open letter to his scientific colleagues explaining why he was withdrawing from helping to author the report.
    - "I am withdrawing because I have come to view the part of the IPCC to which my expertise is relevant as having become politicized." - "In addition, when I have raised my concerns to the IPCC leadership, their response was simply to dismiss my concer

  18. Educate us by benhocking · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Find one by an actual climatologist and not by an author who has also warned us about the "summer of the shark". The truth is that during this global cooling scare manufactured by Time and Newsweek, real scientists were already doing research on global warming.

    It is the height of meglomania to suggest that human beings have a greater impact on the planet than that big-ass hot thing that comes over the horizon every morning.

    Humans tend to think that the span of our lifetimes are significant, when in the scope of Universe, our lifespans, and indeed human life on this planet are nothing but a blip, a footnote, a grain of sand on the beach.

    It's the height of ignorance to believe otherwise. If you don't trust environmentalists, perhaps you'll believe what Lindzen himself has said:

    At some level, [that there is clear evidence of human influences on the climate system] has never been widely contested.
    --
    Ben Hocking
    Need a professional organizer?
  19. Believe it. by d3ac0n · · Score: 3, Interesting
    This is the kind of crap that has been going on for the last 5 years or longer.

    If you don't believe him, all you have to do is to look back at ANY Slashdot article on global warming in the last 5 years to see an incredible amount of vitriol and hate directed at those like myself who are highly skeptical of "Global Warming" as a man-made phenomena.

    We are called "Deniers", fools, idiots, trolls, tools, apologists for "big oil", ignorant, and any number of insults that you can imagine. Our intelligence is derided, our ability to research and think critically is questioned and our honesty is doubted. We are treated much like those who "insult Islam" are treated by Muslims. With disrespect, derision, and hatred. That some of the eco-religious would choose to "take it to the next level" with death threats is NOT SURPRISING AT ALL.

    There are many many scientists, not funded by big-oil, who seriously doubt or outright disagree with the conclusion reached by a few high-profile scientists in regards to the veracity of man-made global warming. Many of them have signed on to a petition that states:

    There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.


    You can see the petition online here: http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p37.htm

    and a scientific abstract that further explains their position here: http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm

    Their science is sound, and after doing my due-diligence I agree with them. I will not be shouted down by eco-religious fanatics or ideological thugs, and neither will these scientists.
    --
    Official Heretic from the "Church of Global Warming". Proven right thanks to whistle blowers. AGW = Flat Earth Theory
    1. Re:Believe it. by geekoid · · Score: 4, Informative

      Yes, and if if people on slashdot starting saying the earth was actually a giant cube, they owuld have the same results.

      Before throwing your hat in with this guy, you might want to research his motivations.
      Also, he is a geographer, not a climatologist. Has written zero papers on climatology, has no experience in climatology.

      SUpposing he actually got death threats, it isn't suprising, because tere are stupid people in every 'group' an dit is a shame. it is wrong, and I hope they get the person who wrote them. That in know way is an arguement against or for global warming.

      "Their science is sound, and after doing my due-diligence I agree with them. I will not be shouted down by eco-religious fanatics or ideological thugs, and neither will these scientists."
      actually it is not, and also MOST scientists agree that humans have impacted the enviroment and are a major contributer to global climate change.

      However, I offer some proof.
      China does not want there to be global warming, they want to have the same things the Western worlds has. With all ther political might, the best influance they had on the paper was some minor down grade in the language. This speaks volumes. If there was any strong scientific support against global warming China would have brought it up.

      You go ahead and bury your head in the sand; where you can make yourself believe the humans haven't impact their enviroment at all.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    2. Re:Believe it. by Dragonslicer · · Score: 2, Insightful

      MOST scientists agree that humans have impacted the environment and are a major contributer to global climate change.
      I'll risk the flamebait and/or starting an off-topic argument and say this anyway. Most people also believe that God created the Earth in less than a week only 6,000 years ago. Most people believed Iraq had large-scale weapons and ordered terrorist attacks on the United States. Most people seem to believe that homosexual marriage will cause the complete disintegration of society. Most people believe that Windows is better than Linux, or even believe that Windows is the only operating system a computer can possibly have. As much as we might sometimes like to think we can, getting enough people to believe something doesn't necessarily make it the truth.
  20. Story is BS by klahnako · · Score: 2, Informative

    It is a BS story by a small group of Bush lovers up here in Canada. The "professor" has a PHD in geography, not climate science, and has written no papers on the topic of climate.

    http://canadiancynic.blogspot.com/2007/03/ejankula tor-strikes-again.html

  21. Responses are criticizing the wrong thing by ElScorcho · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I'm not a climatologist, but I am a scientist, and some of these responses (and indeed, responses all over the place) are scaring me. Global warming is not the issue. There's a very clear trend of increasing global temperatures, you can check meteorological websites and see it. There's also a very clear trend of an increase in the CO2 levels in the atmosphere, even just since they started recording it, to say nothing of what it might have been 100 or 200 years ago.

    The argument is whether the global warming that we see in hard data is caused by humans. There's a correlation between rising CO2 and rising temperature, but as any Pastafarian can tell you, correlation does not equal causation. That's what people should be arguing about. We KNOW temperatures are increasing, what we don't know (and it's one of those things that might be impossible to prove, as so many things are in science) is whether these increases are caused by us. If they are, then we might possiblly be able to reverse them given reductions in CO2 output and carbon sequestering. If they aren't, then rising CO2 probably isn't helping and should still be reversed, and we might also look into other solutions for it.

    The Earth has cycled between hot and cold for its entire existence, and we don't know why. It might be life, it might be the planet's internal processes, it might be the Maunder Minimum.

    Anyone denying that the planet is heating is living with their head up their butt. Anyone denying that the heating is caused by humans is simply skeptical, and has good reason to be. Anyone convinced that the warming of the planet is caused by humans is too credulous and should always remember that science is falsifiable and therefore can never be certain.

    --
    Evil will always win, because Good is DUMB
    1. Re:Responses are criticizing the wrong thing by brm1974 · · Score: 2, Funny

      I see - there is still a lot of Good in you...

    2. Re:Responses are criticizing the wrong thing by Shadowlore · · Score: 2, Informative

      If they aren't, then rising CO2 probably isn't helping and should still be reversed, and we might also look into other solutions for it.

      As a scientists, it saddens me to see you make such a statement. IF C02 increases do not cause warming, then we should look to *increase* them. Why? It has been shown through hundreds of studies that plants perform better, produce more biomass, use less water when CO2 levels are increased. It has likewise been shown (again through actual physical experimentation) that decreasing CO2 levels leads to loss of plant life. Most any greenhouse grower can tell you of the difficulties in keeping enough CO2 present. Indeed, it has been experimentally (and theoretically) shown that increase CO2 concentration can turn marginal land into productive land. it is indisputable that increased CO2 concentration in our atmosphere means more plant life, which by the way means more life in general. It has been shown that more plants == more food == more animals.

      So, we have the two:
        More CO2 == good for plants
        More CO2 == higher temperatures (which to an extent is good for plants)

      If we consider for sake of discussion that B is a negative toward A, and B is determined to not be so, then we should further A.

      The fact is we have more vegetation now than we did a few decades ago. This is an undeniably good thing. More vegetation increases biodiversity. Biodiversity has been tied directly (in a causative sense) to the health of an ecology. The more diverse it ecology of an area is, the healthier and more resilient it is. Furthermore it can be shown that increased CO2 availability leads to increased life.

      1) Life as we know it is based on Carbon
      2) CO2 contains carbon
      3) Carbon sequestered miles or even hundreds of feet below ground is not available to be made into life
      4) Releasing carbon from it's sequestered locations below ground makes it more available to be turned into biological matter (life).

      Therefore, provided there are no harmful effects from CO2 increase that outweigh the positive effects, we should increase the CO2 level of our atmosphere. Given the size of our atmosphere and the process of life cycling carbon from CO2, if increased CO2 does NOT increase temperatures to a point where life is suffering a NET negative impact, we should seek to increase CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

      So if CO2 level increases do not have a net and biologically significant increase in temperatures (as in other effects such as increased plant growth 'sequestering', and other climatological effects counter the effect of CO2), and there are no other net negative effects we should strive to increase CO2 production.

      Now, before some of you go apoplectic (or more accurately continue to go apoplectic) at that comment, note that is not saying we should burn more oil. It means we should not be worrying about CO2 as a "pollutant", and turn our attention to things that are shown to be directly negative such as the various *zenes (such as benzene), or uranium (coal plant emissions). These items we have shown via experimentation to have detrimental effects on life. The burning of oil, among other sources, produces these. I still advocate a move from gasoline, just as I always have. GW has had no positive impact on this advocacy, and increasing or maintaining high CO2 production also bears no impact on it. One can advocate CO2 indifference while still advocating burning less and less gasoline.

      --
      My Suburban burns less gasoline than your Prius.
  22. Re:Earth IS warming, the WHY is almost unimportant by Alioth · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Actually, we've not "ruined Eden".

    What most people fundamentally miss, is concern at the current _extremely rapid_ climate change (it's not questioned that the climate is always changing for various reasons) is not concern about "saving the planet" by saving ourselves. Concern about whether humans are causing rapid climate change (which there are now mountains of evidence in favour of) is _self interest_. The Sun has another five or six billion years of main sequence, and if we act like bacteria in a petri dish - living in an unsustainable manner until either the environment no longer favours our species, or that the resources are used up - in that period of time, the Earth will shrug it off. 100 million years is nothing to the Earth.

    We are the first species who can actually predict the course of our actions, and actually stop the disaster from happening in the first place. Concern about this very rapid climate change is all about preserving our technological society. We only have one shot at at - the easy to get at resources are all now gone, so if this society collapses, there cannot be another industrial revolution (at least, not for 100 million years or so).

    So the choice is: live sustainably and save ourselves, or don't live sustainably, and doom civilization. The Earth doesn't care either way, the Earth will just shrug us off in what is the short term for the planet - if we doom ourselves, in a couple of hundred million years you'll have to dig for fossils to even tell that humans even existed.

    It's clear that we both need to adapt _AND_ we need to find a way to live sustainably. Even if it turns out to be entirely false that human emissions are the main factor in the rapidly changing climate (which is unlikely), resource exhaustion is still a future problem that must be tackled. Living sustainably will solve both problems, and it doesn't mean we all go back to an Edwardian lifestyle either if we engage our brains (and sadly, as a species, we act no more intelligently than bacteria on a petri dish). I think ultimately, if our society survives it'll be luck rather than good planning (luck - as in resources become increasingly scarce at a slow enough rate that the market can force the move to alternatives, at a speed which won't cause economic collapse).

  23. throwing some surplus karma on the fire by Yonder+Way · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Scientists should be skeptical. It is only under much scrutiny and skepticism that the truth can be truly known. Petty tactics against skeptics only serve to make the more popular global warming theories appear as dogma rather than real science.

  24. I understand him. by DeeDob · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Coming from an ecology based formation at the university, i have learned some principles of ecological research.

    The first thing that needs to be understood is that ecology "scientists" need funding for their research (which is more often than not government-funded).

    They NEED their research to make an impact in order to receive further funding for more research.

    In ecology, you never have an "absolute numerical value" to your results. You will obtain a "range" of values, the minimal of that range being the "best-case scenario" and the maximum "the worst-case scenario".

    Now in a research, you always "summarize" your results in the intro and/or in the conclusion of your report. In ecology, the "summary" always ONLY include the worst case scenarios.
    Remember that they need to create an impact. Saying "all is normal" won't grant them further funding for additional researchs. In a sense, it even put their work as "useless".

    It's the reason why today, we are hearing a lot less about the "ozone layer". In the 80s and early 90s, the problem was on the news everywhere all the time. Now we barelly even hear about it. See, the ozone layer is currently slowly re-building according to other researchs. Scientists gave the worst case scenario and what has been observed by others comes down to the fact that the problem wasn't as big as observed.

    I strongly suspect the same thing with the green-house effect and rising temperatures. When a day is anormaly high (even if not even record-breaking) or if there are a higher number of typhoons and tornados (even if not record breaking) media are quick to "blame it on rising temperatures".
    It's the ecological disaster of the decade... it's shocking... it's what the media wants, it's what the reserchers want as it's basically a ticket to funding.

    Now comes another researcher that looks at it from a different perspective and comes to the conclusion that the worst case scenario is improbable and tends on the other side of the spectrum, where the "problem" is actually normal climate variation in the long term.
    His views contradict the majority of other reserchers and invalidates some of what they are saying.
    If they can't discredit his methodology, they'll discredit his research itself. Fail that, they will discredit the researcher himself.

    I've read multiple catastrophe-scenarios over a number of ecological studies.

    - In the 80s, i've read that if we continued to cut down trees at the speed we were doing, that no more trees would exist on the planet by 2010. It won't be the case.
    - I've read in older studies that no petrolum would exist in the world by 2005. It was not the case.
    - I've read that California would dissapear by 2000 from earthquakes. Did not happen.
    - I've read that New York will be submerged by rising sea water by 2020. I doubt it will be the case.

    There IS a problem with rising temperatures. The problem however is NOT what you are led to beleive by ecologists.

    The lesson i've learned when listening to ecologists and catastrophe scenarios is:
    Take their numbers, divide by 3 to 4, make an approximation of what the REAL problem is.

    The lack of drinkable water in some countries (even the U.S. is lacking in some of it's regions) is a more urgent problem than rising temperatures. But it isn't as popular, hence it does not bring enough money...

    Think about it,
    Specialists in hydrology, climatology, ecology, oceanology, geology and almost all the other "...gy" discipline can gain funding if their researchs include "rising temperatures" in them.

    Conclusion,
    I don't know anything about this particular researcher or his studies. But he has raised an interesting point: you CAN be placed aside, discredited and have your funding CUT if you go against the ideas of the majority of other researchers.

  25. His sources of funding... by Serveert · · Score: 4, Interesting

    http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Tim_Bal l

    Dr. Timothy Ball is Chairman and Chair of the Scientific Advisory Committee of the Natural Resources Stewardship Project (NRSP). [1] Two of the three directors of the NRSP - Timothy Egan and Julio Lagos - are executives with the PR and lobbying company, the High Park Group (HPG). [2] Both HPG and Egan and Lagos work for energy industry clients and companies on energy policy. [3]

    Ball is a Canadian climate change skeptic and was previously a "scientific advisor" to the oil industry-backed organization, Friends of Science. [4] Ball is a member of the Board of Research Advisors of the Frontier Centre for Public Policy, a Canadian free-market think tank which is predominantly funded by foundations and corporations. [5]


    The links to PR companies is what bothers me. PR companies have studied and refined group psychology for decades, centuries even if you look at how it evolved from greek study of rhetoric, and it has even gotten us into wars like the 1st gulf war ( http://www.prwatch.org/books/tsigfy10.html ). They make Hitler's propaganda team look ineffecient in comparison. Stalin would be envious of them. Having observed PR campaigns for decades, this is a very high level and well funded campaign. I see their tactic - attacking global warming advocates as emotional and vindictive. Basically taking the science out of global warming and turning themselves into victims, because everyone likes a victim. I wish I wasn't so skeptical and negative but having seen PR companies in action, this has all the hallmarks of a PR campaign. The best PR goes unnoticed, it's not obvious to those uniniatied in PR tactics, but it is most definitely happening.

    I personally only want to see peer reviewed data, nothing else matters. The PR companies want to take this to the people rather than to the journals.

    --
    2 years and no mod points. Join reddit. Because openness is good.
  26. runaway global warming: debunked? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    While I am concerned about the future of our planet and our species' place upon it, I am growing increasingly sceptical of the wild claims surrounding a looming global warming catastrophe.

    My main area of surprise and shock was learning that past concentrations of carbon dioxide were much higher than they are today, as revealed in the interview below:

    RES: Professor Robert E. Sloan, Department of Geology, University of Minnesota
    JC: Dr Joe Cain, interviewer

    We are talking about carbon dioxide levels 6 to 10 times the present carbon dioxide level. When you have high amounts of carbon dioxide in an atmosphere up to a certain limit, which is considerably higher than it is now, the result is green plants grow very much better... And it is precisely at this time that the recovery from the first dinosaur extinction takes place. When the super plumes come and carbon dioxide increases, and the oxygen correspondingly increases as a result of photosynthesis... And yet the super plumes did not last forever and they started to die at the end of Cretaceous.... In any event, large dinosaurs really required to be living in an oxygen tent. An atmosphere in the neighborhood of 35 percent oxygen would be considerably more compatible with large dinosaurs than one in the neighborhood of 28. And so this suggested to me that this was perhaps a significant reason for the first dinosaur extinction, and probably one of the major factors in the second, the terminal dinosaur extinction, other than the birds. It also neatly tied together all of the really bizarre features about the Cretaceous... The Cretaceous is clearly a green house period as opposed to the present ice house that we have... Well, the rich carbon dioxide of course provides for a much greater biogenic diversity.

    I have come to learn that these past carbon dioxide concentrations have been documented in peer-reviewed research journals:

    We find that CO2 emissions resulting from super-plume tectonics could have produced atmospheric CO2 levels from 3.7 to 14.7 times the modern pre-industrial value of 285 ppm.

    My interest in past CO2 concentrations began by reading a (somewhat) more partisan summary of this information:

    When dinosaurs walked the earth (about 70 to 130 million years ago), there was from five to ten times more CO2 in the atmosphere than today. The resulting abundant plant life allowed the huge creatures to thrive. . . . Based on nearly 800 scientific observations around the world, a doubling of CO2 from present levels would improve plant productivity on average by 32 percent across species.

    I have also seen a great rejection of the global warming panic in the scientific community (it is unlikely that "big oil" funds have "bribed" so many faculty members of such prestigous universities):

    Sixty scientists call on Harper to revisit the science of global warming... If, back in the mid-1990s, we knew what we know today about climate, Kyoto would almost certainly not exist, because we would have concluded it was not necessary.

    And I have also seen a growing political backlash against scientifically-unfounded runaway global warming panic:

    Politicians who build campaigns around "alarmist" global warming claims are themselves becoming quite alarmed because of growing skepticism, Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) said.

    When I see interviews such as

    1. Re:runaway global warming: debunked? by Marxist+Hacker+42 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "When dinosaurs walked the earth (about 70 to 130 million years ago), there was from five to ten times more CO2 in the atmosphere than today. The resulting abundant plant life allowed the huge creatures to thrive. . . . Based on nearly 800 scientific observations around the world, a doubling of CO2 from present levels would improve plant productivity on average by 32 percent across species."

      Human beings are neither dinasoars nor plants- we can't take the added CO2 concentration. So this is entirely irrelevant to keeping the earth's atmosphere in a state where human beings can survive.

      --
      SJW: a person who perceives an injustice, and while correcting it, commits a greater injustice.
    2. Re:runaway global warming: debunked? by Dragonslicer · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I remember reading a paper back in the early 1990's about what happened in a small environment when the amount of carbon dioxide was increased. The atmospheric concentration didn't change, but the rate of plant growth increased rather dramatically. A great way of reducing the amount of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere is to stop hacking down every forest we find.

      I think what bothers me the most about this whole debate is all the people that are looking for the cause of climate change, as if there can be only one. Some scientists predict that the average temperature will increase by 2 degrees (estimated for the sake of argument), and people start making claims about what's causing the increase of 2 degrees. It seems like nobody is considering the possibility that there's some factor causing an increase of 0.2 degrees, some other factor causing an increase of 0.1 degrees, maybe some feedback caused by the combination of the two causing an additional increase of 0.1 degrees, etc. Climate is a complex system, and if humans are having an impact on it, there's still nothing that says humans have to be the only thing having an impact.

    3. Re:runaway global warming: debunked? by paitre · · Score: 2, Insightful

      When dealing with the past, we're almost always dealing with geologic time.
      The only reason we know about these super plumes is that plant life took -millions- of years to balance out the increased CO2 with O2.
      We're talking about plumes of C02 entering the atmosphere at a rate mankind couldn't even think of approaching, and doing it for hundreds, if not thousands, of years at a time.

      We have very little temporal granularity when we start talking about the far distant past. Hell, man, we don't have a lot of granularity for shit much past the 1700's (and for weather, the mid-late 1800's). Extrapolating climatic models when ~150 years of -hard-, -observed- data should be scaring the fuck out of ANY scientist involved in this entire debate. Yes, we have evidence of what the climate in certain parts of the world was kinda-sorta like upwards of 800k years ago, but we're still talking, what, not quite 2 -hundredths- of a percent of the time the planet has been around. In fact,we HAVE to rely on the fossil record because the ice sheets, even on Antarctica are, at most, 40 million years old. We're talking about a time, here, that's millions of years BEFORE the ice sheets began to form.

      150 years isn't even a blink in the eye of what true climate change is about - it might be the start of the synaptic signal telling the eye to blink.

      With that said - yes, the climate does appear to be changing. How much affect has man had on it, though, is the question. Frankly, I don't think we're affecting it nearly as much (nor as little) as either side would like us to believe. We ARE having some affect, I will not disagree here, but I do not think that we should jump into 'solutions' like Kyoto without -really- thinking hard about the effect it will have on the global economy for a very, very minimal "gain", that might not even exist in the first place.

    4. Re:runaway global warming: debunked? by blank+axolotl · · Score: 2, Informative

      And anyway, the problem with CO2 isn't it's direct effect on plant and animal life, it is that it may cause global temerature increase.
      So the quote is doubly irrelevant.

      However, the point that CO2 levels were higher millions of years ago is interesting. Here are two graphs from Wikipedia:

      Data over the past 400 Thousand years showing the sudden increase after the industrial revolution. Also a subplot over the past 1000 years.

      Data over the past 500 Million Years showing the higher levels of CO2 in the past.

      I can see how the effect of CO2 is controversial.

    5. Re:runaway global warming: debunked? by 'nother+poster · · Score: 2, Informative

      Sorry I couldn't reply until today. From OSHAs web site.

      Extreme and Dangerous CO2 Levels:

      slightly intoxicating, breathing and pulse rate increase, nausea: 30,000 ppm
      above plus headaches and sight impairment: 50,000 ppm
      unconscious, further exposure death: 100.000 ppm

      3 times the level (1100 ppm), which you say would kill, is listed as possibly causing minor drowsiness according to OSHA. General drowsiness: 1000 - 2500 ppm. Humans would survive.

  27. Right, because Lindzen doesn't get any by benhocking · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Does he? Oh, yeah. He gets grant money from the NSF, NASA, and the DOE. Yeah, no grant money there.

    You get grant money for doing novel research - not for toeing the line. Anyone who thinks otherwise has never applied for a grant.

    --
    Ben Hocking
    Need a professional organizer?
  28. Re:Earth IS warming, the WHY is almost unimportant by MightyMartian · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I guess the problem really narrows down to whether it's fixable or not. If it's human-caused, or has a human component, then reducing emissions may slow the change down. If there's only a small human component, or none at all, then we're going to have to deal with the consequences. In fact, even if it's all human-caused, maybe we've gone beyond the point of no return, and our ability to impact climate change will be minimal.

    What strikes me, though, is that going to renewable forms of energy and curbing our appetite for fossil fuels are, regardless of climate, good things. We are contributing billions of dollars into unfriendly and unstable states in a region that has demonstrated itself not exactly to be a good friend to the West. Though we've gotten better in this part of the world, we're still dumping a lot of crap into the ecosphere.

    --
    The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
  29. Where's the science? by Phat_Tony · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Given the vitriol I've witnessed, I have no doubt that people doing work that might contradict greenhouse-gas driven anthropogenic global warming receive all sorts of threats and probably funding problems. Surely anyone who put their name out there as an anthropogenic global warming critic is going to receive threats from loonies, and surely there are at least some anthropogenic global warming critics who's research is being de-funded, but that doesn't mean the two are related. Their research could be being de-funded because it's bad research.

    It seems to me that anyone who wants to be civil about the debate over global warming (rather than taking up arms in a useless flame-war) needs to look at one thing; peer-reviewed scientific literature.

    Likewise, to make the case regarding political bias affecting research into global warming, what one needs to look at is submitted papers and grant proposals. Let's not hear one side complain about how they're being repressed; let's see evidence of repression. Do you have a history of quality research, and had your quality grant proposal rejected because the research you proposed could contradict the theory of anthropogenic global warming? If so, put the information out there for people to judge. Did you submit a quality research paper to journals, only to have it rejected due to political bias, not the quality of the paper? Put it out there. The laymen might not be able to evaluate all this on their own, but there are still plenty of unbiased scientists and organizations that would review these cases carefully if these claims were advanced with appropriate evidence.

    Is research being suppressed? I don't know, it wouldn't surprise me either way, given how politicized this topic is. But if they want to make a case for it, the thing that they need that's been lacking so far is substantial evidence.

    --
    Can anyone tell me how to set my sig on Slashdot?
  30. Re:More denial crapola on slashdot by kabocox · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Stop with the " global warming is a political agenda driven conclusion" crapola like this. It's totally unacceptable. The mechanism for carbon dioxide IR trapping has been known since 1935 and it's not up for debate.

    It's statements like this that drives home how much global warming is a political agenda. It's totally unacceptable for scientists to have locked believes in a theory. They are supposed to constantly question, experiment and update their theories. After 2-3 decades they are only now somewhat certain that the Earth is in a heating tread. There is debate on the causes, and it may take another 2-3 decades to even start answering them. There are alot of folks that just want to say humans caused it now we should fix it. That may or may not be true. The only thing everyone seems to agree on is that we need more study.

  31. Causality was right in front of you by benhocking · · Score: 2, Interesting
    Causality 1:

    CO2 absorbs infrared radiation.
    Do you deny that?

    Causality 2:

    Absorbing infrared radiation leads to an increased thermal equilibrium.
    Do you deny that?

    (Implied) Causality 3:

    We have increased the CO2 concentration by 100 ppmv.
    Do you deny that?

    Where is this "correlation" that you're describing? I'm talking causes.

    I'm really tired of back seat scientists. Skepticism is good, and I'd argue that skepticism is even better when everyone seems to follow one view. The skeptics may not be right, but they are necessary to keep everyone honest. If you do not understand that, you have no right to comment.

    Do a google search on "Ben Hocking". I'm not a back seat scientist. I might not be that credentialed, but I do have an MS in astrophysics, a Masters of Computer Science and I will soon have a Ph.D. in CS. I've also published several articles in Journal of Neuroscience and have written two grant proposals to the NIH. What are your credentials?

    Skeptics are great - they look for the truth. Pseudo-skeptics who only look to prove their preconceived ideas or try to make themselves look smart give real skeptics a bad name.

    --
    Ben Hocking
    Need a professional organizer?
  32. Re:Oversensitive much? by Chacham · · Score: 5, Interesting
    You know, things like claiming that the word "denier" is a holocaust reference.

    He never said such a thing. The exact quote from the article is:

    I can tolerate being called a sceptic because all scientists should be sceptics, but then they started calling us deniers, with all the connotations of the Holocaust.


    All the connotations of. The word denier (when refering to those who deny) is uncommon, as is usually used as a strong term.

    Anyway, the word itself, to many, does indeed carry sucha reference. Just now i googled denier, and the second line (first entry, first sub-entry) was a Holocaust reference in Wikipedia.

    IMNSHO, a denier, when referring to one who denies, is nearly always predicated with what is being denied. On its own, however, it would refer to a famous topic that has famous incidents of deniers. One such case, and to many nearly the only case, would be the Holocaust.
  33. The Great Global Warming Swindle by Colin+Smith · · Score: 3, Informative

    Loads of climatologists said it was mostly down to the sun. It's on Youtube.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6IPHmJWmDk

    --
    Deleted
    1. Re:The Great Global Warming Swindle by rhodes777 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Apparently the guy from MIT in this documentary is suing Channel 4 (the English station who broadcast this program) because he says he was misrepresented and quoted completely out of context:

      http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,20 31455,00.html

  34. Re:Oversensitive much? by DeadChobi · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Color me skeptical, but I don't think you're entirely accurate. I've been skeptical in global warming posts on Slashdot before, and there's usually at least one guy who suggests that I'm in denial and that it's people like me who are going to destroy the planet. I'm interested in the truth, and I'm not above listening to someone who suggests that this is part of a natural cycle. Think of our mean temperature like the angle of a pendulum. As we add more CO2 to the air it acts to drive the pendulum of temperature. That is not what is in question. What is in question is the extent of the driving.

    That is where I'm skeptical, but I usually get accused of ignoring the whole issue. Thankfully I haven't been referred to in the same light as a holocaust denier.

    Global warming is an extremely emotionally charged issue for a lot of people because of the impact it will have on our future if we do nothing and it turns out the driving from the CO2 results in us cooking the civilization off the face of the planet.

    --
    SRSLY.
  35. Re:More denial crapola on slashdot by Just+Some+Guy · · Score: 2, Funny

    Dr. Christopher Landsea:
    Leading expert in the field of hurricanes and tropical storms.

    Interesting coincidence.

    Sincerely, Holden Yourass, M.D. (proctology)

    --
    Dewey, what part of this looks like authorities should be involved?
  36. Re:Oversensitive much? by Keys1337 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I'm glad we established what the truth is, I wish people would just hurry up and declare what the truth is about everything so we can stop wasting time thinking about these things. But seriously, why shouldn't you challenge things that are considered the truth? If it is really true then it will stand on its own merits. I just think of all the ridiculous notions that have been considered "common sense" over the ages. I'm glad those thuths were challenged. As far as people getting angry. It has nothing to do with how much they know, it is how emotionally invested they have become. A top brain will get just as angry as a dim wit when the ideas they have invested much of their lives on get challenged and they feel vulnerable.

  37. Re:More denial crapola on slashdot by theodicey · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Landsea is the only one of your sources under 65. I think he's a credible scientist, but he only works on hurricanes and isn't skeptical about the overall phenomenon of global warming. Even if he's 100% right, the other impacts of global warming (sea level rise, drought, famine) are worse.

    The fact that you're bringing out Seitz, who was completely senile by the time the oil companies were putting his name on press releases, discredits you completely.

    Lindzen thinks that the earth's climate is warming with 98% certainty. He would only take a 50-1 bet against it.

    Tim Ball has never worked on climate change, has no quantitative ability, and is basically obsolete. He sues his critics for telling the truth about him.

    Is that the best you can do? Your denialist sources suck.

  38. Some Dissenting Scientists from IPCC's Own Report by Shuh · · Score: 4, Insightful
    It seems that any particular "science" does not exist for the politically-driven masses until someone makes a movie about it a la Al Gore. So with no further ado, I present the really inconvenient, inconvenient truth:

    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=9005566792 811497638&q=The+Great+Global+Warming+Swindle

    The movie was produced by the BBC4 and is titled "The Great Global Warming Swindle." It shows an honest, reasoned response to the Global Warming Scare on a point-by-point basis from scientists and at least one journalist. The scientists all have credentials out the whazoo and are recognized leaders and contributors in their respective fields. A few of them have their names on the IPCC report (the report the Warmingistas always cite) and one has even sued to have his name taken off the document.

    Particularly chilling (no pun intended) is the part that shows how the IPCC policy-wonks have redacted the IPCC report to remove comments from the scientists that explicitly state there is no proveable link between man-made CO2 and global warming.

    As a technical person, I have always suspected the "consensus" results "proving" man-made Global Warming have been primarily a political scam. For one thing, science rarely (if ever) deals in absolutes, and complex models always deal in probabilities rather than yes/no answers. Further, as an undergraduate engineer, I spent plenty of time in college science labs doing experiments to acquaint myself with the scientific method. Working in simple straight-forward conditions:
    1. Indoor lab,
    2. Properly calibrated equipment,
    3. One simple, universally-accepted equation,
    4. One single variable,
    we (me and all the other undergraduates) never got an exact match between the equations and the real world. There was always a fudge-factor. This experience has taught me that anyone who thinks scientists can model the entire world and get every equation and every theoretical assumption correct (down to a degree Celcius with no fudge-factor) is either ignorant or just a shill. They have the kind of faith that would put any religious bigot to shame.


  39. Peak Oil Won't Stop Coal by BlackGriffen · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If we keep on this fossil fueled path we're going to choke to death on our own smoke.

  40. You're ignoring costs to them of "doing something" by Ungrounded+Lightning · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Depends on what was done about it, but I can't help thinking "better safe than sorry." When our greatgrandchildren look back on this time 100 years from now, I'd rather them laugh at our paranoia (or whatever you might call incorrect and alarmist views on climate change) than lament our complacency.

    How about them cursing you for having trashed the economy so their standard of living is far below that of your time - and no resources are available for solving whatever the REAL problems of their day are - while instituting a global totalitarian repression to accomplish the "better safe" goals?

    Kyoto alone talks about cutting the global economy by about a third for an "improvement" predicted (even by its advocates) to be too small to measure.

    What good is insurance if you spend so much on it that you have nothing left to live on? Don't you think you need to actually do enough research to have some confidence in the results before instituting such costly measures?

    Don't you think you should at LEAST get the models working to the point that they actually track the historic record of global temperature before taking draconian measures based on their predictions of the future?

    --
    Bantam Dominique roosters crow a four-note song. Once you've heard it as "Happy BIRTHday" you can't NOT hear it that way
  41. WHY is entirely *important* by Shadowlore · · Score: 2, Insightful

    That said, it does not matter why it's warming.

    It does if you mean to change it.

    Put aside the whole "consensus" crap for a moment and think about this. Assume for sake of discussion the following:

    1) Earth is warming
    2) Mankind has had zero impact on it

    If you wish to make an impact, you have a large hurdle in that you've not been able to make any despite believing you have. If the warming is entirely natural, then all the changes you thought we had made to the climate did not happen and all of your science, models, theories about how to stop it are completely incorrect (as if they are now) and useful only as a list of "well this didn't make a difference". Useful, yes but not in the frame of making things different. You'd have a roughly equal chance of making it worse if you could impact it at all.

    Furthermore, if it is entirely natural, or that man's impact is statistically and demonstrably zero in effect, then where we should focus our efforts in coping with the natural cycle is in adjusting ourselves to the new climate.

    It also matters what the cause is in another area. If Mankind didn't cause it, then the political and moral force of a lot of environmental regulations are dropped in the crapper. It is one of the reasons I've been advocating making changes for reasons that have nothing to do with GW. There are plenty of non-GW caused changes we should be making that we do not. By tying nearly the whole of emissions control, fuel economy, and so forth to anthropogenic GW, the entire foundation could and would fall like a house of cards if/when it is determined that lo and behold we humans didn't do it. It's a dangerous position to build upon. Particularly since the anthropogenic part is not fully finished and certain. No, consensus does not mean correctness. As mentioned elsewhere, scientists have in the majority been completely wrong before.

    The cause of global warming is all theory, not fact. In science, theories must be falsifiable in order to stand a chance at validity. Where is the falsifiability of AGW? How does one prove humans did not cause GW? How does one prove that solar forcing, or orbital changes, or any other "natural" causes were no the source, at that a combination of them?

    In truth, we can't without experimentation. Models do not count. They are not proven accurate enough to even be considered as experimentation. This problem is taking hold in more places than climatology. Models and other computer simulations are not a valid substitute for confirmational experiments. So how does one conduct actual experiments? The same way we always have. But it does require more than hiring a programmer to make a program that takes your inputs and spits out an output according to a list of algorithms.

    It means building environments and validating the theories that make up the portions of the whole. It means taking these and integrating the portions into larger experiments. Yes, that means bigger laboratories and more "hard thought". But hey isn't this supposed to be important enough to justify that? If you can't build it up, you can't say you truly understand it.

    There has yet to be a single GW model that has been demonstrated to accurately model the past climate changes, let alone today's alleged ones. As such no model on climate today is valid evidence of anything other than programming and money being spent. Today's climate models are no more valid than a Simcity or Civlizations game is.

    I've been researching climate effects for a couple decades with the express desire to create a warming climate condition. The first model I played with was in the 1980's. The model can output pretty much what you want it to. Any halfway decent programmer knows that. They area gross simplification built upon a chosen set of rules. All of them. ANyone that tries to tell you otherwise is ignorant of the sheer complexity of our climate. Even small scale climates are non-trivial. If you want to make your model accurate you need to have a repeatable

    --
    My Suburban burns less gasoline than your Prius.
  42. Re:Oversensitive much? by angst_ridden_hipster · · Score: 4, Interesting

    OK, I'll bite.

    They deny the truth.

    Scientists don't tend to use words like "truth" for theories that are not readily shown by experimental evidence. And sometimes even when they can be.

    For example, general relativity can be experimentally demonstrated in a range of contexts. Most scientists believe that the theory is accurate, but there are still a lot who wouldn't use the word "true," simply because it may not be true on all scales, or it may turn out that GR is a good description of one area of a larger theory (e.g., Newtonian mechanics aren't strictly "true" -- but they're a damn fine approximation in most contexts). You still see some interesting discussion on this stuff in the dark matter debate, although the GR/dark matter side is increasingly looking like it's going to win out on this one.

    Your divisive and dismissive language ("pseudo-skeptics") doesn't actually get us anywhere. Setting yourself up as judge over which skepticism is warranted and which is not a scientific approach -- this is the model of a Religion, where there is acceptable dogma and unacceptable dogma. Show me the errors in their logic or explain why their experiments are inaccurate, don't call them names.

    Disclaimer: I am a scientist by training, even if I don't work as one now. I am an environmentalist. I'm a skeptic. I've seen evidence that supports the theory that there is global warming. I haven't seen compelling evidence in either direction on the anthropogenic question. Having done computer modeling of physical systems, I don't have deep trust of computer models of chaotic systems.

    --
    Eloi, Eloi, lema sabachtani?
    www.fogbound.net
  43. Re:Legates and his article by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Essentially, you went from this:

    At some level, [that there is clear evidence of human influences on the climate system] has never been widely contested.
    To this:

    They are in almost complete agreement that it is primarily anthropogenic in nature, and that greenhouse gases are the anthropogenic culprit.

    Now I don't know what kind of fancy science is involved in your degrees, given that I've but a humble MS in mechanical engineering (and only really specializing in the thermal/fluid sciences at that) but in engineering we try not to go from "clear evidence of human influences" to "complete agreement that it is primarily anthropogenic in nature".

    Why did I mention that article? Because it's one of Legate's many papers which disputes the claim that the evidence is anywhere close to overwhelming. Legates does not insist that the climate is not warming, nor does he insist that humans cannot be causing it. He simply disputes the idea that the jury is out. A longtime friend of mine is a climatology Ph.D student who works with Legates. He stays current with climatology literature out of necessity, and the state of the peer reviewed literature is nowhere near where you seem to think it is.

    And I neither know nor care why junkscience would host it, since I'm not particularly fond of herring. Especially red ones.

  44. How many of those are climatologists? by benhocking · · Score: 5, Informative

    I'm not being sanctimonious, but I'm not going to waste my time watching some infomercial. Have you watched "An Inconvenient Truth" yet or are you too sanctimonious?

    I already know that Steve McIntyre and Dr. Ross McKitrick are not climatologists. Are any of them?

    Prof. Tim Patterson: Geologist
    Prof. Edward J Wegman: Statistician
    Prof. Bob Carter: Marine Geophysicist
    Dr. Willie Soon: Astrophysicist
    Dr. Madhya Khandekar: ???
    Prof. Wibjorn Karlen: Paleoclimatologist
    Dr. Henrik Svensmark: Physicist
    Dr. Dick Morgan: Law Professor?
    Dr. Fred Goldberg: Physicist
    Hans H.J. Labohm: Economist
    Steve McIntyre: Mineralogist
    Dr. Ross McKitrick: Economist
    Dr. Chris Landsea: Meteorologist

    OK. So I've had to do a lot of work to get one name. Prof. Karlen is a climatologist. So, what was his contribution? If I do a Scirus search, I don't find much, but perhaps I'm not searching on the right terms. He wrote a paper in 1973 on Holocene climatic variations and another in 2000 on high-altitude fresh waters.

    Ahah. I did another Scirus search and found this article. Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be anything there. I really wish I knew what he had written as every other article I can find only deals with the holocene. Although the title is suggestive, it wouldn't be the first time that what one would infer from a title did not agree with the conclusions.

    --
    Ben Hocking
    Need a professional organizer?
  45. Re:Taking the long view- by jnaujok · · Score: 2, Informative

    The sad part is that you believe what you wrote.

    Man-made CO2 represents 4% of the annual output of CO2 on the planet. 96% of all CO2 is generated by natural causes.

    The Earth has gone through more massive changes in it's history than you seem to be capable of conceiving. CO2 levels have been as high as 7000ppm in the past. Yes, we have a bunch of arctic ice cores that may indicate CO2 levels have been mostly invariable in the past, but, as one PhD Chemist I know pointed out, "All that may be measuring is the level of CO2 dissolution in water at 0 degrees C." In other words, CO2 in ice is more likely to be the function of how well CO2 dissolves into ice water than any other mechanism like atmospheric density.

    I'm not saying that there aren't some signs of warming, but I am highly skeptical of the supposed disastrous consequences.

    Sea levels are "noticeably rising"? Not according to the 1841 sea level marking in Tasmania found here. Even the IPCC only claims a maximum of 15 millimeters over the 6000 year average. If you can see 2/3rds of an inch difference, more power to you, but calling it "Noticeably Rising" is a vast overstatement. The 2007 IPCC report is claiming a maximum rise of about 18 inches, or about the same as during the Medieval Climate Optimum. Al Gore is claiming 20 feet, but he also claims to have created the Internet...

    Weather, overall, is not getting worse. The 1930's saw worse hurricanes then even the 2005 season. The difference being that now we can name storms 2,000 miles out to sea that never touch land, whereas, the 1930's used ships that passed storms in the ocean and very few storms were measured until land-fall. In fact, the largest hurricane (Typhoon Tip) occurred in 1979, in the midst of a "slow period". In 2005, the increase in Atlantic hurricanes was matched by a decrease in Pacific Typhoons (hurricanes), meaning that overall, the number barely increased. The link to storms and global warming is hotly debated.

    In fact, were anthropogenic global warming a reality, we'd find that storm severity would decrease because storms are driven by the heat engine effect, namely the flow of heat from the equator towards the poles. Global Warming, as predicted by the models and climate scientists, indicates that the majority of warming occurs at the upper latitudes, with the largest increases at the poles. This means that the gradient of temperature from equator to poles would be less, and thus, the storms would decrease in severity. In fact, this was the prediction published in several papers up until about 1999, when they suddenly reversed themselves.

    I could speculate that it was because they had seen a record storm year with the 1998 El Nino season, and they wanted to use the connection between strong storms and global warming to sell the science, but that would be a correlation vs. causation fallicy. Of course, in 2006, those same scientists predicted a "killer" Atlantic hurricane season, and not one single hurricane touched North American soil. (Yes, one storm was a hurricane when it approached Cuba, but by the time it made landfall it had been downgraded to a tropical storm.) Suddenly we were back to the climate scientists, and they actually said, "The reason we had so few hurricanes was because of global warming." So, now we have global warming if there's more hurricanes, global warming if there's less hurricanes, and, we must assume, global warming if there's no hurricanes. That's called non-falsifiable, and there's a name for its practice, but it's not science. The word is religion.

    Is the Earth warming up? Satellite measurements continue to show, at most, a mild and limited warming, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere, and mostly in the middle latitudes. Claiming that glaciers melting (which they are)

    --
    Life, the Universe, and Everything... in my image.
  46. I really don't buy it by mrcparker · · Score: 5, Insightful

    You can not reverse a non-linear chaotic system. Whenever you hear someone say otherwise you can not win the argument because you are arguing with emotion.

    1. Re:I really don't buy it by wealthychef · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That is not true. Just because something is non-linear and chaotic does not necessarily mean that you cannot restore it to state A once it's moved from state A to state B.

      --
      Currently hooked on AMP
  47. Re:Oversensitive much? by angst_ridden_hipster · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I would argue that there's also a logic problem that contributes to the rancor of the debate, which is that people who do not believe in anthropogenic GW are being asked to disprove the anthropogenic model.

    But, to your point, it's also absolutely true that there are fanatics (on both sides) who are not interested in science or evidence or anything other than beating up on the "enemy." There are elements of both the anthropogenic model and the non-anthropogenic model that naturally fit in with wider world-views that stand in conflict. Throw in people who stand to profit (on either side), and we get the morass we're in. Little wonder it has become a very emotional issue.

    Now the question is how do we get out of the swamp?

    --
    Eloi, Eloi, lema sabachtani?
    www.fogbound.net
  48. Re:You're ignoring costs to them of "doing somethi by NMerriam · · Score: 4, Insightful

    How about them cursing you for having trashed the economy


    i find this notion fascinating -- I can't think of any other situation in which funneling research and development into more efficient and automated technology has resulted in anything other than economic progress. The entire western world is built on replacing the cheap, easy and obvious method of doing things with expensive but vastly more scalable and efficient technology.

    Outlawing child labor didn't result in an energy or manufacturing crisis, it resulted in a more educated society while causing all the industries that relied on child labor to invest in better tools that wound up being MORE effective and profitable.

    All that environmental concerns accomplish is to change the economic incentives so that the market has the motivation to cover the startup costs of technologies we know will be more productive in the long run anyways. Building more efficient and cleaner power plants and vehicles is a great idea that we know will benefit all aspects of the economy and society. So why not make it profitable for the market to move to that stage sooner rather than later?
    --
    Recursive: Adj. See Recursive.
  49. If you want to study climate change yourself by HoneyBeeSpace · · Score: 2, Informative

    If you'd like to study climate change yourself, the EdGCM project has wrapped a NASA global climate model (GCM) in a GUI (OS X and Win). You can add CO2 or turn the sun down by a few percent all with a checkbox and a slider. Supercomputers and advanced FORTRAN programmers are no longer necessary to run your own GCM.

    Disclaimer: I'm the project developer.

  50. GW skeptics: think it through by SideshowBob · · Score: 2, Insightful

    So you've decided that there isn't enough evidence to support anthropogenic climate change. Fine. I'm not going to try to change your mind. But what's the solution being presented by most GW proponents? Reduce carbon emissions. How? By reducing our consumption of fossil fuels.

      Can you think of *any* other benefits to reducing consumption of fossil fuels?

    - conservation is cheaper than consumption
    - reduce energy imports as a component of our trade imbalance
    - reduce money going to states known to support terrorism either officially or unofficially
    - provide incentives for alternative energy technology and production by American companies
    - reduce air pollution

    Is any (or all of them together) of those goals worth pursuing in its own right? Is there really any reason at all to be against reduction of dependence on fossil fuel energy *if you aren't in the fossil fuel industry*?

  51. Mars, Pluto, Jupiter, Triton are warming by aggiefalcon01 · · Score: 2, Informative
    We're now seeing evidence of current climate change on several extra-terrestrial bodies:

    Mars (National Geographic):

    "Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun."
    Pluto (MIT):

    "the average surface temperature of the nitrogen ice on Pluto has increased slightly less than 2 degrees Celsius over the past 14 years."
    Note: Pluto is currently moving away from the Sun. That it is warming indicates that something doesn't fit into the "Solar Constant" dismissal theories.

    Jupiter (Space.com):

    "The latest images could provide evidence that Jupiter is in the midst of a global change that can modify temperatures by as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit on different parts of the globe."
    Triton (MIT):

    "At least since 1989, Triton has been undergoing a period of global warming. Percentage-wise, it's a very large increase," said Elliot, professor of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences and director of the Wallace Astrophysical Observatory. The 5 percent increase on the absolute temperature scale from about minus-392 degrees Fahrenheit to about minus-389 degrees Fahrenheit would be like the Earth experiencing a jump of about 22 degrees Fahrenheit."
    Clearly, the oil industry must have infiltrated these august publications; or, these entities are all simply industry stooges. Because it cannot possibly be anything other than anthropogenic global warming is happening on Earth.
    --
    Global warming is neither science, nor politics. It is a religion.
  52. Re:You're ignoring costs to them of "doing somethi by Red+Flayer · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Kyoto alone talks about cutting the global economy by about a third
    Source, please? I've never seen economic impact statements with any kind of estimate that damaging for the Kyoto treaty. Time and again, we've seen pollution controls result in better economies, not worse -- despite dire predictions of the opposite.

    for an "improvement" predicted (even by its advocates) to be too small to measure.
    Huh? What advocates of the Kyoto Treaty have said that? Please cite a source, since everything I've read has predicted a measurable impact on global atmospheric CO2 levels.

    Even super-critical-of-Kyoto analyses put the GDP impact in 2010 (if we had adopted under Clinton) at 400 Bn, which is less than a third of projected 2010 GDP... and that calculation uses a base gas price of $1.10, with a Kyoto impact of about 0.40... since the base gas price is slightly less than double the $1.10, we can expect the impact (in the worst-case-scenario, without technological discoveries and improvements) to be significantly lower than the $400 Bn.

    Furthermore, this 'study' totally ignores the economic positives associated with alternative source development -- it only looks at the negative impacts. Any wonder, since it was funded by the DoE, which is a stomping-ground for energy lobbyists?
    --
    "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
  53. Re:Climate Change Skeptics by ArhcAngel · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I put them in the same category as "Creation Scientists" and Flat Earthers.

    I seem to recall there was a time when the Round Earthers were the "nutjobs".

    What scares me is how so many posts (and the scientific community) froth at the mouth like rabid dogs at anyone who is skeptical. So a couple of colleagues disagree...C'est la vie.

    --
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it." - K
  54. Re:NOT "A former professor of climatology" by nagora · · Score: 2, Insightful

    "Professor" and "Phd" are not the same thing.

    --
    "Encyclopedia" is to "Wikipedia" what "Library" is to "Some people at a bus stop"
  55. Re:Can't say I've seen that by Spazmania · · Score: 2, Interesting

    a clear-cut list of factors from a group would be welcome.

    Indeed. I've said this in discussions on the subject before, but it bears repeating: If vehicle emissions are 30% of the problem and power plant emissions are another 30% then its worth the investment to switch to nuclear power and electric cars. But what if they're 3% each and the solar wind interactions due to the Earth's falling magnetic field is responsible for 60% of the warming? If that was the case then changing our driving habits wouldn't make a whit of difference; we'd need to find some way to counteract the sun-related heating instead.

    We owe it to ourselves and to the people we're asking to change their lifestyles to narrow down the possible causes in to the specific causes with their respective rates so that we ENGINEERS can develop reasonable solutions.

    Let me put it another way. I accept the theory if evolution. Its not particularly good science but its the only science that explains where we came from; every other explanation is either untestable or has been disproven.

    Nevertheless, if you told me that we needed to invest a trillion dollars in changes to prevent the evolution of the superbug that must be coming, I'd laugh you right out of the room. It doesn't warrant serious consideration. You want a hundred million to set up the CDC, okay, but don't sit there and tell me with a straight face that we have to reinvent society because something as flimsy as the theory of evolution predicts the emergence of a superbug.

    --
    Moderating "-1, Disagree" is simple censorship. Have the guts to post your opinion.
  56. Skepticism != Spin Doctoring. by guidryp · · Score: 2, Informative

    Ball is a propagandist for "Natural Resources Stewardship Project", formerly for "Friends of Science". Both oxymoronically named groups, funded by carbon producing industry. They exist to lobby politicians and fund propaganda pieces. They don't exist to further extend knowledge.

    Anyone threatening this lobbyist is playing into his hands and is thus an idiot. If there were real threats, they should be turned over to law enforcement and those behind them should be charged. We should go back to ignoring Ball.

    Also skepticism is good. But most of these self identified "skeptics" are nothing more than propagandist who are clearly being disengenous much of the time, quoting the work of real scientist completely out of context in an attempt to fit the facts to the message they are paid to sell.

    Case in point is the "Climate Swindle" program that is mentiond in the original article, that misrepresented Carl Wunschs views:

    "
    In the part of the "Swindle" film where I am describing the fact that the ocean tends to expel carbon dioxide where it is warm, and to absorb it where it is cold, my intent was to explain that warming the ocean could be dangerous---because it is such a gigantic reservoir of carbon. By its placement in the film, it appears that I am saying that since carbon dioxide exists in the ocean in such large quantities, human influence must not be very important --- diametrically opposite to the point I was making --- which is that global warming is both real and threatening in many different ways, some unexpected.
    "

    Do emotions run high? Yes, because some of us are tired of being lied to by industry spin doctors. The issues here are important and we need real science to provide to most likely and realistic outcomes and best course of action. Paid lobbyist that are merely engaged in the process to inject a "Preach the controversy" message hard enough to ensure that no action gets taken are only a detriment.

    BTW these guy attack the issue from any angle they can come up with. Recently Balls organization published a piece indicating that we are on a global gooling cycle in recent years (using 1998 as a base comparison). Do I need to point out the issues with that claim? This is not science it is propaganda that routinely misrepresents fact.

    We shouldn't give this spin doctor any more attention and we shouldn't give him the label of skeptic which he certainly doesn't deserve. I imagine his favorite film is: "Thank you for smoking".

  57. Yes, well by paranode · · Score: 4, Funny

    I think people are too materialistic so we should raise the prices on 50"+ big screen TVs and fancy cars. An extra tax would be good too. That way people would start thinking about being more like me for a change! That'll show 'em good.

  58. Yes, let us take a "long view"! by Shadowlore · · Score: 4, Informative

    You honestly think that pumping tons of CO2 into the atmosphere has no effect?

    I'll assume you mean trillions or billions of tons. honestly pomping ten tons into the atmo of this planet has no effect on the planetary scale, no. Sure it does, do you honestly think it has one and only one effect, and that nothing else changes?

    We know for a fact that increased CO2 means highly increased plant growth. Plant growth ranges from a 50% increase to a 100% increase with a 600ppm CO2 concentration on the low end - and for some like pine trees 170% or more increase in biomass at only 400ppm CO2. Plants store CO2 (as we all do). More plant life means more animal life. All of which pulls CO2 from the atmosphere. Further, there are additional effects that are tropospheric that are happening that counteract CO2's "effect" on temperature.

    The question is what the *net* effect, if any, there is. If I piss in the ocean while swimming my local temperature will increase slightly for a short period of time, as will the salinity of my locale. But that doesn't mean the entire ocean suffers, or that my change is permanent or even long-term.

    To give you an idea of the scale we are talking about, in 2000 the average estimated (yes, estimated, we don't know for fact) annual human carbon (CO2) output was 5.5Gt (giga-ton). The It is estimated that the atmosphere contains 750 Gt of carbon (CO2). All told the ocean is estimated at about 40,000Gt. Annually (according to bio-records) the ocean and atmosphere exchange about 240 Gt of carbon. Annually the surface vegetation (i.e. plant life) swaps some 60 Gt of carbon. That is an annual exchange of about 300Gt of carbon. If the exchange rates vary by as little as 1% the annual variance could be 3Gt/year. If a non-anthropogenic change in the natural carbon exchange rate occurred where the atmosphere picked up 2% more than usual, how would we know? We wouldn't. And that would be more than the estimated human contribution of about 3 Gt per year net.

    So let us just explore a few thoughts here. If CO2 levels doubled, plant life could increase by 50% to 100% (assuming we let it) How much of the roughly 60Gt vegetation locked carbon would have to increase to soak up the difference? Just think about it.

    It may suprise you to know but the likelihood is that the Earth's atmosphere is not so fragile as to be severely impacted by a 1% change. The anthropogenic GW proponents claim it is but provide no experimental or historical evidence of it. They also want to limit discussion of temperatures and levels of CO2 to only the last 100 years, and claim everything is based off of it. This is persisted despite knowing that in the longer history of the Earth that CO2 level increases have lagged warming by some 800 years. - www.realclimate.org even talks about this. If we take their comments about an 800 year lag (over a 5000 year warming period), and assume (they do not say otherwise last I knew and the site has DB issues atm) that this can be applied to more than one warming period, then we should be able to extrapolate backward by looking at when the warming began and when the CO2 increase began. If we go back to the start of the CO2 rise, and then backtrack 800 years what will we or do we find in the temperature record as we know it?

    Sea levels are noticably rising,
    And falling. Over the last century it has been shown that the global average (global sea level isn't level) has been a decrease, with an annual variation of about 8 inches. Eight inches.

    Furthermore, the long term average for seal level on this planet is much higher than it is now. Much higher. Yet the end of the last ice age some 18,000 years ago had sea level nearly 400 feet lower than today, and it has been rising ever since. Some 120,000 years ago it was several meters higher than it is today. All of this is before man was keeping track of this kind of stuff, and ages before we deserved even so much as a thought about our carbon footprint as a species.

    "Sea level is higher now

    --
    My Suburban burns less gasoline than your Prius.
  59. Way to prove the author's point slashdot. by Leuf · · Score: 2, Insightful

    So let me get this straight. In response to a story about a scientist complaining that he's being compared to holocaust deniers for questioning global warming someone posts comparing him to a holocaust denier. This then gets modded +5 insightful? Way to prove the author's point slashdot!

  60. "Do Something" by Dirck_the_Noorman · · Score: 3, Informative

    eldavojohn wrote - "His article only mentions a professor from MIT but not what his criticisms are." The MIT professor is Richard Lindzen. He is a physicist and Professor of Meteorology at MIT. Google him to learn more. ----- misleb wrote "Depends on what was done about it, but I can't help thinking better safe than sorry." The problem with this logic is that it assumes there is no cost to "doing something." "Doing something" in this case means slowing the world economy, dooming billions to continued poverty, granting arbitrary power to foreign and domestic bureaucracies, and slowing the very engine that makes innovation possible. "Doing something" just to be "better safe than sorry" in the 1960s meant stopping the expansion of nuclear energy in the US - if we hadn't done that, and had instead moved forward with France and Japan (generating 80% of electricity from nuclear now) the US would now be generating 40% less CO2. "Doing something" for Nobel-Prize-winning chemist Paul Crutzen means pumping millions of tons of Sulfur into the atmosphere (to help reflect sunlight). The US has spent the last 40 years reducing the emission of this powerful pollutant (creates acid rain), but when Al Gore calls climate change "the greatest spiritual challenge mankind has ever confronted" anything is on the table. http://tinyurl.com/3xkxf2 "Doing something" about Global Cooling in the 1970s meant "melting the arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers". http://tinyurl.com/yqzd4a ----- The greatest threat to humanity is not human-induced climate change, it is abuse of power by grasping bureaucrats. Add up all the fatalities of all the natural disasters of the 20th century and you will have a fraction of the number killed by abuse Marxist governments. Like the Marxists in the 20th century, climate alarmists favor central control over individual liberty, claim scientific support for their harebrained schemes, and command sympathy from many among American academia, celebrities, and trustifarians. http://tinyurl.com/22hy4u

  61. Re:You're ignoring costs to them of "doing somethi by Photon+Ghoul · · Score: 2, Funny

    While you're predicting the future, do you have any investment advice?

  62. Every reason TO change, no reason not to. by cephal0p0d · · Score: 5, Insightful

    We need to shift off of fossil fuels anyway for strategic, economic, environmental, and geopolitical reasons: - De-funding terrorist petrostates - Neutering the Big Oil lobby - Removing the possibility of OPEC style embargo politics - Creation of a native energy industry increases GDP and keeps the money in-country - Expanding biofuel use eliminates the need to subsidize farms and farmers - Co2 from biofuel was in the air months prior, so no net CO2 gain. - Clean Coal tech such as emissions scrubbing and carbon sequestering has gotten to the point where it is viable as a greenish energy source, and the US has coal coming out its.. seams. - Nuclear has gotten a lot safer. Slowing/eliminating human inputs to climate change is just the cherry on the un-fossil sundae.

    --


    ~!J!
  63. Enough with the plants and C02 by snowwrestler · · Score: 2, Insightful

    This the second post on this thread I've seen where you focus on the plants. It's stupid. For one thing, the world already produces enough food to feed every single human. The problems of starvation are problems of transportation and politics. The number one health problem throughout the world is not starvation, it is clean fresh water. CO2 does nothing to help that.

    Second, there is no causative correlation between biomass and biodiversity. Biomass increases in a single organism lifetime--you can grow a whole forest in 30 years. But they'll all be the same trees you planted. Biodiversity requires long periods of time to develop. If you're concerned about biodiversity, the only way to preserve it is to protect old ecosystems. Once again CO2 does nothing to help that.

    --
    Build a man a fire, he's warm for one night. Set him on fire, and he's warm for the rest of his life.
  64. Re:Taking the long view- by IWantMoreSpamPlease · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The fad term "global warming" is applied to al the evil things mankind does to the environment.

    Does the earth go through cyclic changes in temperature? Absolutrely.

    Is it the end of the world as ascribed by the eco people? Of course not (and that's why I call GW BS)

    And there was an interesting study I heard on the radio that the glariers melting were a natural part of offsetting the rise in temps, that occur naturally.

    The point is, GW is NOT hard accept fact, but that doesn't mean we (mankind) can't help do something to offset the effects

    --
    So rise up, all ye lost ones, as one, we'll claw the clouds.