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Inside The Search For Jim Gray

An anonymous reader writes "InformationWeek adds some interesting new details to the story of unprecedented grass-roots search for Jim Gray, the Turing Award-winning database guru who helped set up Microsoft Research's San Francisco lab. Gray disappeared Jan. 26 after sailing out of San Francisco Bay to scatter his mother's ashes at the Farallon Islands, 27 miles offshore. Once the Coast Guard had given up its massive search, Gray's friends rallied the tech community — including people like Google co-founder Sergey Brin — into action. 12,000 volunteers spent 3 days examining 1.6 million hi-res images of ocean gathered by a NASA pilot who flew a U2 low over the area where Gray was thought to have disappeared. But it was all for naught. As Sendmail creator Eric Allman notes, Gray was expert at 'stripping away mystery by making things simple. It's an irony to me that he should end in a mystery.'"

115 comments

  1. If you are an expert at taking mystery and... by 3seas · · Score: 2, Interesting

    ...demistifying it to the simple then you are also an expert at the reverse.

    Though it is possible tragedy happened, it is also possible that he "Simply" decided to vanish.

    1. Re:If you are an expert at taking mystery and... by kestasjk · · Score: 1

      That's the silliest thing I've heard all day..

      --
      // MD_Update(&m,buf,j);
    2. Re:If you are an expert at taking mystery and... by onepoint · · Score: 1

      No, not really.
      When I was young, in the early 80's, I would vanish for months at a time. I would just tell my dad I was leaving, and show up a few month later. nobody would ever ask.

      Learned how to pick tomatoes and peppers , drive a combine, build a house, and a lot more. if times were safer I would tell everyone to do it. I think in Australia they call it a walk-about or something like that.

      A person has the right to vanish if they so feel like it. so he might have just, unplugged, and got off the grid. never know, he just might be in Mexico, drunk and happy with no worries.

      --
      if you see me, smile and say hello.
    3. Re:If you are an expert at taking mystery and... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Granted your speculation about what happened to Gray is possible, in fact some of his friends cling to that hope, including the part about escaping to Mexico. But OP's contention was that being an expert at demystifying complex subjects automatically makes one a master of subterfuge. This is utter hogwash, the kind of cheap verbal stunt that makes underage Slashdot moderators swoon.

    4. Re:If you are an expert at taking mystery and... by Score+Whore · · Score: 1

      Not half so silly as 12,000 people forming a search and rescue team then going down to the local starbucks to sip coffee and look at pictures. Way to go nerds!

  2. Jim Gray? Bones said it best . . . by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "Jim's dead, Jim."

    1. Re:Jim Gray? Bones said it best . . . by ScrewMaster · · Score: 2, Funny

      It's worse than that ... you're dead, Jim!

      --
      The higher the technology, the sharper that two-edged sword.
    2. Re:Jim Gray? Bones said it best . . . by musakko · · Score: 1

      you're dead, Jim!

      The body is normalizing even as we speak..

  3. Low Flying? by reality-bytes · · Score: 1

    ...gathered by a NASA pilot who flew a U2 low over the area where Gray was thought to have disappeared.


    I'd have thought a U2 would be more useful at high altitude taking super high resolution shots of wide areas than at low level where something like a private turboprop and an 'average' DSLR would be just as useful.

    FTR: My captcha was 'sailed'.
    --
    Ripping an new rectum in the fabric of spacetime.
    1. Re:Low Flying? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      I was one of the people who analyzed the U2 (actually ER-2) images. According to the headers, the images were obtained at 50,000 feet. Perhaps that is "low" for an ER-2. By the way, the footprint ofthe ER-2 images was small compared to the satellite images, which in turn were somewhat smaller than to the area searched by the Coast Guard

    2. Re:Low Flying? by Goaway · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      You have an 'average' DSLR that can take 1.6 million shots?

    3. Re:Low Flying? by Gerhardius · · Score: 4, Informative

      The camera array on NASA's ER2 is a tad more sophisticated than simply a DSLR or two. The relatively limited and older IRIS system covers a strip approximately 40 nautical miles wide: exactly what kind of setup could accomplish this on a turboprop? I am not saying it could not be done, but it would take more than a few days of work. The possible selection of cameras on the ER-2 is listed in the first link, the National Imagery Interpretability Rating Scales for civilian and military usage are 2nd and 3rd:

      http://www.nasa.gov/centers/dryden/research/AirSci /ER-2/cameras.html
      http://www.fas.org/irp/imint/niirs_c/guide.htm
      http://www.fas.org/irp/imint/niirs.htm

    4. Re:Low Flying? by Animats · · Score: 2, Informative

      Convenience, basically. NASA has an old U-2 based at Ames, it has the right cameras for the job, and they have pilots who can fly a U-2.

    5. Re:Low Flying? by Score+Whore · · Score: 1

      So are they going to break it out everytime someone is lost? Or is this more of that equal treatment where some people are more equal than others?

    6. Re:Low Flying? by be-fan · · Score: 1

      Rich people (especially smart rich people) are more important than everyone else. What's so hard about that to understand?

      --
      A deep unwavering belief is a sure sign you're missing something...
    7. Re:Low Flying? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Our tax dollars at work saving one Darwin candidate at a time!

    8. Re:Low Flying? by IgnoramusMaximus · · Score: 1

      Rich people (especially smart rich people) are more important than everyone else. What's so hard about that to understand?

      It is hard to understand for those of us who -- based upon careful analysis of empirical evidence and the theoretical foundations of the seemingly unquestionably accepted economic and social phillosphies -- came to the conclusion that the supposed corellation of wealth and "merit to the society" (and thus by implication the "importance" of an individual to the rest of us) is one of those Big Lies which some of the more infamous politicians of old were so fond of.

      Once you realize that, the "importance" of such people and that of two-bit feudal thugs with a band of henchmen -- also known as the Nobility -- becomes essentially one and the same, with the provision that the method of acquisition of "importance" has "improved" from that involving rusty swords and blunt objects to more intellectual manipulation of those being rendered less "important" -- on average that is.

      However, the old and true methodology is still applied with glee by some practitioners. For more information see: Haliburton, Blackwater, Unocal, KBR, Carlyle Group etc.

  4. Tact is not my middle name by mrogers · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    I'm still trying to get my head round relational database concepts - if he disappeared while scattering his mother's ashes, would this be an example of a one-tomb-many-relation?

    1. Re:Tact is not my middle name by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      I'm still trying to get my head round relational database concepts - if he disappeared while scattering his mother's ashes, would this be an example of a one-tomb-many-relation?

      Maybe he was drinking... A one too many relationship.
  5. Oracle by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I guess now it is a good time to switch to Oracle.
    At least Larry knows his way around his yacht.

  6. Re:Colour me apathetic. by LingNoi · · Score: 0, Troll

    HE IS A FUCKING PERSON!!!

    What the hell is wrong with you? I mean seriously how deluded can one get it..

  7. Re:Colour me apathetic. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Wow. Do you realize just how incredibly ignorant and insensitive you are? Why should it matter what company he worked for?

    To put it in perspective, let's go forward to your funeral. Why should we care that you're dead? There are plenty of innocent people who deserve more sympathy that this fascist who willingly lived in a nation that did nothing but oppress others.

  8. Collided with a Freighter, Sucked Under by Tsu+Dho+Nimh · · Score: 5, Informative
    I remember a freighter that came into Charleston harbor with a SAIL snarled in the anchor. The crew never heard or felt a thing, but the sailboat was never found. Their best guess was that the collision happened off the coast of Spain.

    If Gray's boat was run over by an outgoing freighter, he would have had little time to escape. The sailboat would have been sucked under the freighter and may or may not have come to the surface after the freighter's hull and propellers got through chewing on it.

    1. Re:Collided with a Freighter, Sucked Under by hejog · · Score: 2, Informative

      thats why you don't sail in shipping lanes. ever.

    2. Re:Collided with a Freighter, Sucked Under by MarkSyms · · Score: 5, Insightful

      If he was in any way an experience Yacht master then there is no way that would happen. The only way you're ever going to get that type of collision is if the skipper in charge of the yacht is seriously inexperienced or there is zero visibility. Given that he was heading out to scatter his mother's ashes I doubt it was bad vis, that's the sort of trip you want to do in perfect conditions as you want it be a memorable experience.

      First rule of the sea, it is your responsibility to avoid a collision, regardless if the other vessel should give way to you.

    3. Re:Collided with a Freighter, Sucked Under by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      thats why you don't sail in shipping lanes. ever.

      I'm no sailor, but isn't that a bit like saying "that's why you don't cross streets. ever." ?

    4. Re:Collided with a Freighter, Sucked Under by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Depends, if you're in the wrong place at the wrong time you might not be able to avoid a collision. Those big ships move fast and if you're in a sail boat you more slow (engine or not). If you happen to be in the wrong place you simply might not be able to get out of the way.

    5. Re:Collided with a Freighter, Sucked Under by TiredOfCrap · · Score: 5, Insightful

      You are so wrong!

      I nearly got nailed by a tanker leaving Charlestown harbor at about 2:00 am.

      The tanker came out of Charlestown roads and immediately altered course straight in my direction.

      I had no engine and was totally reliant on sail, so my ability to get out of his way was restricted. I used flashlamps focussed on the bridge of the tanker, but nothing changed.

      In the end I had to use a distress flare, and the tanker missed me by about 20 feet.

      What many people don't realize is that modern ships are comouter driven, thereby only requiring one person on watch when under voyage. That person could have been taking a leak, studying a chart, whatever.

      When a tanker bears down on you at 15 knots, you don't have much time to react, and if you panic, what you DO do could be considered as counter productive, to say the least!

    6. Re:Collided with a Freighter, Sucked Under by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, it's more like "that's why you don't do the worm on a highway, ever."

    7. Re:Collided with a Freighter, Sucked Under by MarkSyms · · Score: 2, Insightful

      And had he hit you and had it gone to maritime court, you would likely have been found to be the guilty party. I am fully aware of the lack of maneuvering ability of modern ships. Power gives way to sail is a myth. It is your responsibility as master of your vessel to ensure that a collision does not occur, which it sounds like you managed through the use of pyrotechnics. Pure sail with no auxiliary engine has no business being in a busy shipping lane at night, and I speak as a certified yacht skipper so I do know what I'm talking about.

      You will note that in my original post, I considered the likely conditions under which someone would take their boat out to scatter the ashes of their presumably well loved mother. 0200, fog, rain or other conditions that will reduce visibility are not likely to be high on your list of desirables for that task.

    8. Re:Collided with a Freighter, Sucked Under by MarkSyms · · Score: 1

      Hence my comments about lack of experience. Any experienced skipper is well aware of the speed of commercial vessels, I sail in and out past the busiest container port in the UK on a regular basis. You keep a lookout and you stay clear of the shipping lanes apart from when it is absolutely essential to cross them and then you do so as fast as possible using the most direct route (usually 90 degrees to the channel) and only when it is visibly clear in both directions for as long as it will take you to cross. If that means that you start the engine on a sailing boat then that is what you do.

    9. Re:Collided with a Freighter, Sucked Under by MichaelSmith · · Score: 1

      I remember a freighter that came into Charleston harbor with a SAIL snarled in the anchor. The crew never heard or felt a thing, but the sailboat was never found.

      When I first got my sea kayak I used to paddle around the harbour area taking a close look at the docked freighters. Until one day I noticed a ship being prepped to leave. One check they do is to drop the anchor. Makes sense, just don't be underneath when it happens because they don't winch it down. They drop it.

      Incidently this is the first mention I have seen of Jim Gray intending to scatter his Mothers ashes. It puts a different slant on the situation for me. Maybe he didn't intend to come back.

    10. Re:Collided with a Freighter, Sucked Under by Tsu+Dho+Nimh · · Score: 1

      thats why you don't sail in shipping lanes. ever.

      Coming and going from the Farallons ... that's impossible to do because all shipping has to go under the bridge. From the islands you have to cross the shipping lanes to get to the coast of Califoenia.

    11. Re:Collided with a Freighter, Sucked Under by saildude · · Score: 1

      I disagree with your statement-

      "Pure sail with no auxiliary engine has no business being in a busy shipping lane at night, and I speak as a certified yacht skipper so I do know what I'm talking about."

      A sailboat on the open ocean displaying proper navigation lights has every right to be in a shipping lane at night, as a "certified yacht skipper" you should know it is the responsibility of every vessel to keep watch and avoid collisions.

      It is sometimes unavoidable to be around large fast moving ships at night and a smart sailor will minimize exposure as much as possible.

    12. Re:Collided with a Freighter, Sucked Under by Little+Tyrone · · Score: 1

      Agreed. In another lifetime I was a commercial fishing bum, working boats out of John's Pass off St. Petersburg, Florida USA.

      A couple of my best friends were run over by something big about 125 miles out into the Gulf. Searchers found the mangled stern of the 42-foot fiberglass hull, and that was all. No bodies, the critters out there are hungry. It was at night, there was no distress call, and the other vessel was never identified.

      --
      How do I know the way is like this? By means of this.
    13. Re:Collided with a Freighter, Sucked Under by Askmum · · Score: 1

      While it may be very true that you have every right to be there and that the other vessel should keep a watch, it won't help you in any way if you're dead.

      I have no experience with shipping on the high seas, only on rivers, lakes and canals, but even there I keep a respectful eye to the commerical shipping, even when I should have the right of way, and when in doubt, I make it clear that I make way and I would not feel safe if I could do that with wind power only.
      I have seen too many incidents and near misses involving unmaneuvereable sailing vessels to have the standpoint that it's unwise to rely on windpower and the other's watchful eye alone.

    14. Re:Collided with a Freighter, Sucked Under by Raenex · · Score: 1

      I have no sailing experience, but all of this reminds me of biking. In particular, why I don't bike on busy, winding roads. I see lots of bicyclists that do, and of course they have every right to be there, but man, it's too damn scary. Too easy for some driver not paying attention and too close to the shoulder to come around a bend and wipe you out.

  9. Re:Colour me apathetic. by SocietyoftheFist · · Score: 1

    OK, Caspian. Find one Company that you are sure hasn't committed any unethical, illegal, or immoral acts and report back with certainty about it. What nationality are you?

  10. Re:Colour me apathetic. by ulzeraj · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Despise his work for Microsoft that guy developed brilliant systems. Microsoft's way is evil shit and all that stuff... but in the end I think that we're all geeks and/or scientists and we should forget this software wars sometimes and work together for a common good and Gray's work with scientific databases is a common good.

    I would not work with him developing a Microsoft product for example, but I would be honoured by joining him in some scientific research;

    Well, I don't usually post because of my poor english... but sometimes I must reply. Sorry for the bad english.

  11. Re:Colour me apathetic. by LingNoi · · Score: 2, Insightful

    This guy could have worked for just about any high-tech company, but he chose to work for Microsoft. That speaks volumes.

    Yes because everyone who works for Microsoft deserves to die.

    You're such a nut job.

  12. Kidnapped for any kind of an agency? by itz2000 · · Score: 0, Insightful

    Kidnapped for any kind of an agency?

    That's my theory, and don't mod me down, it's really what I think.

    1. Re:Kidnapped for any kind of an agency? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      ... and don't mod me down, it's really what I think.

      Not trolling here, but why should that be a reason not to mod you down?

    2. Re:Kidnapped for any kind of an agency? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Most likely he was upducted by space aliens. Don't mod me down, I've seen just this sort of thing reported by reputable newspapers which I occasionally peruse at the supermarket checkout lane.

    3. Re:Kidnapped for any kind of an agency? by ScrewMaster · · Score: 1

      "upducted"? That's hilarious.

      --
      The higher the technology, the sharper that two-edged sword.
    4. Re:Kidnapped for any kind of an agency? by arabagast · · Score: 1

      +1 Tinfoil

      --
      Doolittle : ...What is your one purpose in life?
      Bomb no.20 : To explode of course.
    5. Re:Kidnapped for any kind of an agency? by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 2, Funny
      Obviously your technological understanding is lacking... Upducted is what THEY do when THEY use the alien technology found at Roswell to beam you aboard THEIR aircraft...

      Seriously, man, readjust your tinfoil hat, it's letting sanity sink in!

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    6. Re:Kidnapped for any kind of an agency? by ScrewMaster · · Score: 1

      Thank you. I stand corrected. I did notice a tiny tear in the outer foil layer ... that must have been it. A small amount of mind-control radiation was getting inside. But I'm okay now.

      --
      The higher the technology, the sharper that two-edged sword.
    7. Re:Kidnapped for any kind of an agency? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because if he said it just to be an asshole, he'd be trolling.

      As it's his real thought, and there's no "-1 Stupid"...

    8. Re:Kidnapped for any kind of an agency? by OneoFamillion · · Score: 1

      First I kinda doubted modeling agencies would be interested in a grey-bearded old guy like him, but then I realized they probably need an effective system in order to catalogue all those models and their eating disorders.

  13. Re:Colour me apathetic. by Goaway · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Wow, you are a fucking psychopath. Congratulations.

  14. Simplest explanation - he fell overboard by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The Pacific Ocean off California is cold. You don't have long in that water before hypothermia sets in. And remember that couple that fell off a cruise ship a few weeks ago? Well, the crew knew they fell overboard, and it still took hours and hours to find them.

    Most people have no clue about how damn big the ocean is and how hard it is to spot a person in the swells. When you have thousands and thousands of square miles to search, getting within 1/2 mile of the target is close. And how likely are you to spot someone's head half a mile away when the swells are 5-6 feet high or higher?

    So yeah, "vanish" he did - into the Pacific.

    Don't fuck with the ocean lest it remind you of your relative size.

    1. Re:Simplest explanation - he fell overboard by dissy · · Score: 2, Interesting

      While I do agree, falling overboard is a likely answer, and everything you said about that is true.

      There is still one question... Where is the boat?

      They started the search a couple days after he went out, basically once people noticed he wasnt back.
      As I remember, a week or something like that later there was concern for a storm coming in.
      One would think a spotter plane would atleast find the boat, before that storm came in.

      Granted after a storm, which even if not a week later, im sure at least once between now and then probably happened, I would assume the chances of finding a boat go down dramatically.
      And if the boat happens to be in pieces, even if some pieces are found somewhere, id assume it could easily be no where near where he was by now, and would take a sheer stroke of luck for it to be a piece identifiable in some way.

    2. Re:Simplest explanation - he fell overboard by kestasjk · · Score: 1

      Occam's razor (a.k.a common sense) tells us that if a guy is out sailing alone and disappears, chances are he's not partying in Mexico...

      --
      // MD_Update(&m,buf,j);
    3. Re:Simplest explanation - he fell overboard by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I've scattered ashes from a Sailboat, and falling overboard is a very real possibility.

      If I was alone on a boat doing this, I would have the autopilot on. The search area needed to find the boat increases with the square of the distance the boat travels, and on the right heading it might have just boogied right out into the Pacific before the searchers had a real chance to spot it. I imagine the boat will likely either get sunk by a storm (too much sail on the mast will make it capsize and sink), or it will drift ashore after a few months or years somewhere at random in the Pacific.

  15. Re:Colour me apathetic. by The+PS3+Will+Fail · · Score: 1

    "There's a significant difference between 'deserves to die' and 'worth me giving a damn about when they do die'."
    Yes, there is. Since you seem to be a rabid anti-Microsoft type, let's suppose that Torvalds at some point late in his life took a position with Microsoft. Would that immediately void all of his previous contributions in your mind?

    You should give a damn because Jim Gray had many significant results in the realm of database research. To judge that he is unworthy of you noting (although - why you felt the need to comment in the first place instead of just ignoring the story, I do not know) based only on being employed by MS shows a thought process that I find very strange. [Note: I have not claimed that you are trolling. I am trying to honestly reply to your comment.]

  16. Re:Colour me apathetic. by SocietyoftheFist · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    No, I'm not. Now can you do that? If you can't, you need to start ragging equally on all employers. Who do you work for? Are you self employed. Again, what nationality are you? We'll have some fun with your absolute statements and your blanket judgments of people based on their associations.

  17. Re:Colour me apathetic. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Did I say you lived in the US?

  18. Deckhand at the wheel.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    I remember a freighter that came into Charleston harbor with a SAIL snarled in the anchor. The crew never heard or felt a thing, but the sailboat was never found. Their best guess was that the collision happened off the coast of Spain.
    If Gray's boat was run over by an outgoing freighter, he would have had little time to escape. The sailboat would have been sucked under the freighter and may or may not have come to the surface after the freighter's hull and propellers got through chewing on it. This happens more often than one would think and the victims aren't just sail boats the victims range right up to fishing boats and small coastal cargo ships. The problem isn't always that these bulk carrier crews don't realize they've hit somebody. It's also that the level of incompetence among the people running some of these ships is simply frightening. About 15 years ago I watched a container ship sink that had hit a reef in a wild storm and sink with loss of most of the crew. The local rescue boat tried to get to them but all they could do was drag a couple of guys out of the sea before they were forced to retreat for fear of ending up on the reef them selves. During the sea trials it was found that they captain and the first officer were both dead drunk along with most of the crew leaving a deckhand at the wheel to steer the ship. If the man in question is experienced this is not necesarily an unusual thing to do but in costal waters it's not considered good practice. Being rather inexperienced the poor guy got confused in the bad weather and ran the ship straight onto that sunker. In the time since this happened we've had something like 8-10 foreign cargo ships stranded along the 3-400km down the coast from where I live. The coast guard, who has to risk their lives rescuing these characters, explains it by pointing out the ship's crews are often very inept at navigation and their ships badly equipped with radar and navigation aids while things like lifeboat and rescue equipment are often hopelessly neglected.
  19. Simple query. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    SELECT [Location] FROM [MissingPeople] WHERE [FirstName] = 'Jim' AND [LastName] = 'Gray'

    Results: NULL

    Oh my.

    1. Re:Simple query. by mrdogi · · Score: 1

      > SELECT [Location] FROM [MissingPeople] WHERE [FirstName] = 'Jim' AND [LastName] = 'Gray'
                                                                                                                                  ^^^

      Well, THERE'S your problem. Try 'James'.

  20. Re:Colour me apathetic. by nanosquid · · Score: 1

    Despise his work for Microsoft that guy developed brilliant systems.

    It makes no difference to me who he worked for, but I think if you look at his work, you'll see he had a knack for following the zeitgeist and fashion in what he chose to implement. Multiple granularity locking, OLAP cubes, and some ideas around commits are not deep insights. And other than that, implementing System R, and later managing the implementation of Terraserver and other big database efforts show more of a knack for flash than anything else.

    Compare his record with that of people like the inventors of RSA; I think there is absolutely no comparison.

    I'm sorry something bad happened to the guy. But while he was doubtlessly a good and smart hacker and manager, and while he was widely published, I'm not particularly impressed by his scientific record.

  21. Re:Colour me apathetic. by peragrin · · Score: 1

    I can't stand MSFT products, I see them as cheap rip offs of other peoples ideas for most of their products.

    That being said it takes a lot of really smart people to keep windows from cracking all together. The people who keep windows running have to be smart, in order to do some of the hacks and workaround that they do. Those guys could build a kick arse OS if they were allowed to by management and marketing.

    --
    i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
  22. Wisdom of Crowds (of geeks) by (Robo_Bro) · · Score: 4, Interesting
    FTFA:

    I decided I'd organize a group that would predict where an object would drift in that period If anyone's read James Surowiecki's "The Wisdom of Crowds", they'd be familiar with a story in which a lost ship was located by tabulating/averaging the guesses from individuals (most with no search and rescue experience). This technique is roughly based on the idea of nature's bell-curve; collect enough guesses and the mean will be RIGHT ON. Anyways, I was simply curious if this technique was employed. How poetic would it be for Jim to be found because of a database's average?
    --
    "It's never the things that happen to us that upset us, it's our view of them." -Epictetus
    1. Re:Wisdom of Crowds (of geeks) by Jussi+K.+Kojootti · · Score: 4, Informative

      If anyone's read James Surowiecki's "The Wisdom of Crowds", they'd be familiar with a story in which a lost ship was located by tabulating/averaging the guesses from individuals (most with no search and rescue experience). This technique is roughly based on the idea of nature's bell-curve; collect enough guesses and the mean will be RIGHT ON.
      No offense, but if your description of the technique is correct, it's based on sheer luck, not on "the idea of nature's bell-curve"...
    2. Re:Wisdom of Crowds (of geeks) by westlake · · Score: 2, Informative
      If anyone's read James Surowiecki's "The Wisdom of Crowds", they'd be familiar with a story in which a lost ship was located by tabulating/averaging the guesses from individuals (most with no search and rescue experience)

      So, how many times has this "experiment" been replicated?

      How is the problem defined and explained for the non-specialist? In a random throw of the darts, I can usually hit the bull's eye. If you make the target big enough and let me move up real close.

    3. Re:Wisdom of Crowds (of geeks) by TerranFury · · Score: 1

      >a lost ship was located by tabulating/averaging the guesses from individuals (most with no search and rescue experience).

      I... don't believe this. This sounds exactly like the "Emperor's Nose" fallacy. See this.

    4. Re:Wisdom of Crowds (of geeks) by multisync · · Score: 1
      I haven't read the book, but this is from its wiki page:

      The opening anecdote relates Francis Galton's surprise that the crowd at a county fair accurately guessed the butchered or the "slaughtered and dressed" weight of an ox when their individual guesses were averaged (the average was closer to the ox's true butchered weight than the estimates of most crowd members, and also closer than any of the separate estimates made by cattle experts).


      So it's not really "luck," as was suggested by the poster above you.

      --
      I don't care why you're posting AC
    5. Re:Wisdom of Crowds (of geeks) by Skreems · · Score: 1

      You should probably clarify that these aren't pure guesses, but estimates based on as much data as was available at the time. And even then, it's relatively shaky logic to carry one instance through to the rest of reality.

      --
      Slashdot needs a "-1, Wrong" moderation option.
      The Urban Hippie
    6. Re:Wisdom of Crowds (of geeks) by MobileC · · Score: 1

      Or even John Brunner's "Shockwave Rider" where the public Delphi boards did exactly that.

      --

      Fran
      :):):)
      1st 1st Poster of the new Millennium!

    7. Re:Wisdom of Crowds (of geeks) by Jussi+K.+Kojootti · · Score: 1

      Oh, I wasn't suggesting Wisdom of the Crowds generally is based on luck, just that locating a ship on sea with that method is... well, idiotic.

    8. Re:Wisdom of Crowds (of geeks) by (Robo_Bro) · · Score: 1

      Sure, this method of thinking is total crock and would never actually find anyone as readily and easily as traditional search and rescue methods. Oh? Traditional methods haven't worked? Oh. RTFA, RTFB, then render your opinion. I look forward to hearing your input. :)

      --
      "It's never the things that happen to us that upset us, it's our view of them." -Epictetus
    9. Re:Wisdom of Crowds (of geeks) by Jussi+K.+Kojootti · · Score: 1

      In this particular application I'm ready to use "the wisdom of the crowds" at about the same point I'll consider consulting tealeaves, clairvoyants and astrologers. The fact that traditional methods haven't worked doesn't make that bs anymore believable.

    10. Re:Wisdom of Crowds (of geeks) by (Robo_Bro) · · Score: 1

      All sorts of things were "BS" until they were proven otherwise. Most things are unbelievable because we lack the knowledge/experience to understand how something could be possible. All I asked was whether anyone participating in this search had applied such knowledge. From a purely practical standpoint, I find the position of "My proven methods are not working, but I'm not even going to TRY you're unproven methods because I'M SURE they won't work either" to be a particularly weak one - especially when concerning the recovery of human life. I consider this method a curiosity, not a way of life. That said, all I can do is present the material - your opinion is ultimately yours.

      --
      "It's never the things that happen to us that upset us, it's our view of them." -Epictetus
    11. Re:Wisdom of Crowds (of geeks) by Doctor+Memory · · Score: 1

      From a purely practical standpoint, I find the position of "My proven methods are not working, but I'm not even going to TRY you're unproven methods because I'M SURE they won't work either" to be a particularly weak one Not at all. The actual consideration would be more akin to "Every minute that slips by reduces the possibility of finding something. What's the next most reasonable method to use?". I don't believe that the WoC examples I've heard of translate well to this situation, as they all were based on people's guesses of things they all had observed.

      If you tell 200 people what you had for lunch, using WoC methods could probably provide you an accurate estimate of how many calories you consumed. If you told those same people that you went out for lunch and asked them to guess where you went, I doubt their "communal wisdom" would pinpoint (or even reasonably bracket) your chosen eatery.
      --
      Just junk food for thought...
  23. Re:Colour me apathetic. by k1e0x · · Score: 1


    The company I own and manage. Yeah, I'm sure its clean and very ethical.. (satire from here out) but who do I report this to again? ..and what do they want from me? Can you point me to the bureau of business morality regulations? Not reporting is a crime in the United Police States of America and ignorance of the law is NO EXCUSE.

    --
    Bringing liberty to the masses. - http://freetalklive.com/
  24. Re:Colour me apathetic. by k1e0x · · Score: 2, Insightful

    People at Microsoft are not bad. (this coming from me, who loathes windows is quite a bit.) Some of them are quite full of themselves and rather blind nut that does not make them bad.

    When you work for a corporation.. nobody works for any such person.. all of them work for this legal fiction called a corporation and its is not like a person.. its not able to make moral choices, the only thing it can do is make money.

    Don't be blinded by hate. It's fine and dandy to hate a thing, but never hate on a person.

    --
    Bringing liberty to the masses. - http://freetalklive.com/
  25. Re:Colour me apathetic. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What are your credentials to say what he did was easy? What have you done?

  26. I don't suppose that... by master_p · · Score: 3, Funny

    ...he went near the new CERN's accelerator, did he?

    1. Re:I don't suppose that... by buanzo · · Score: 1

      Ask Guinan, Geordi, or better yet, Q.

      --
      Buanzo Consulting - 15 Years of GNU/Linux experience, for you.
  27. Re:Colour me apathetic. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    You failed to make a point. What was it?

    I know it's fun and hipe to use that little "Police States" line and I am sure you use it as often as possible but perhaps you could use it in the context of an actual point in the future. Thanks!

    You sound like you're 15 and rebelling for the first time. Grow up and try to have a real conversation without all the loaded language.

  28. You say apathetic, we say... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    borderline psychopathic.

  29. Looking In The Wrong Place by littlewink · · Score: 1

    They should determine other vessels that could possibly have been nearby during the window of time of Gray's disappearance. Chase down the details of those vessels' journey, especially any that changed course unexpectedly. That search may lead them to Gray.

  30. Re:Colour me apathetic. by netczar · · Score: 1
  31. had it been a homeless man who disappeared... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ... not a SINGLE one of those people would have lifted a finger to help him out. The rich help the rich. That's just the way it is.

    1. Re:had it been a homeless man who disappeared... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Homeless men don't have boats.

  32. Lost by PPH · · Score: 1

    The 'Others' have him.

    --
    Have gnu, will travel.
  33. (better link) by TerranFury · · Score: 1

    This is a better explanation. And I remember now that I first heard this parable mentioned in one of Richard Feynman's books; the chapter can be found here.

  34. Tragic yes, mysterious no... by anandamide · · Score: 1

    You sail out by yourself in a small vessel near the Farralones and don't return, there's not much mystery. There's many a boat out sitting on the ocean floor out there that was piloted by an experienced sailor. Some nasty, shark infested waters out there.

  35. How low can you go? by Nom+du+Keyboard · · Score: 1

    And just what is "low" for a U2?

    --
    "It's the height of ridiculousness to say for those 9 lines you get hundreds of millions."
  36. All this effort/time/money by nurb432 · · Score: 1

    To find a *body*.

    Its nice to know there are no missing children these days.

    --
    ---- Booth was a patriot ----
    1. Re:All this effort/time/money by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      All this effort/time/money to raise someone like you who's not as important as Jim Gray.

    2. Re:All this effort/time/money by nurb432 · · Score: 1

      Thanks for missing my point totally. Idiot.

      --
      ---- Booth was a patriot ----
  37. Re:Colour me apathetic. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I hope you die you fucking prick.

  38. Re:Colour me apathetic. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    No one's sure going to care when you die asshole

  39. Re:Colour me apathetic. by j-pimp · · Score: 1

    I can't stand MSFT products, I see them as cheap rip offs of other peoples ideas for most of their products.

    As opposed to Linux or FreeBSD? Apache was a derivative work of the original httpd. HTML was SGML simplified. Everyone steals ideas, Open Source projects just don't print there works cited page in 8 point type.

    --
    --- Justin Dearing http://www.justaprogrammer.net/ We're just programmers.
  40. Useful methods will help future searchers by geekotourist · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Remember the search for the Kim family, lost on a snowy mountain pass in Oregon?

    At the time, people wrote about potential ways to make searching distributed: "traditional aerial photography is far better, because it's higher resolution, higher contrast, can be done under clouds, can be done at other than a directly overhead angle, is generally cheaper and on top of all this can possibly be done from existing searchplanes." And if the lost person has a cell phone, then the plane can also have "a small mini-cell base station (for all cell technologies) that could be mounted in a regular airplane and flown over the area." Traditional aerial searches are limited to only a couple of pairs of eyes, but continuous hi-res photos can lead to thousands of viewers. Of course, there was the question of what to do with gigabytes of photos- how to automate distribution.

    The Jim Gray search team found a way to distribute aerial photo searches. Using Mechanical Turk was a good idea, because the infrastructure was already there.

    Now, for the next lost family, or lost child, it'll be much faster to get photos up and examined.

    They're helping physical search enter the 21st century, not because he or his friends were money rich, but because his and his colleagues were data rich. i.e. if you look up petabyte science, Jim Gray's name shows up a bunch. If there was any quid pro quo it wasn't because the searchers were giving agencies money, it was because they gave new methods.

  41. Channel 9 Links - Amazing Video & Replies by jspraul · · Score: 1

    The guy will be missed at Microsoft, that's for sure... I hope all that brand new kernel transaction stuff already works perfectly in Vista.

    Jim Gray - A talk with THE SQL Guru and Architect
    http://channel9.msdn.com/ShowPost.aspx?PostID=4989 1

    Jim Gray - Part II of talking about Database Design
    http://channel9.msdn.com/ShowPost.aspx?PostID=5042 8

    Conversation with scientist, engineer and database legend Jim Gray
    http://channel9.msdn.com/ShowPost.aspx?PostID=1681 81

    1. Re:Channel 9 Links - Amazing Video & Replies by wboy · · Score: 1

      Those interviews are great -- hope they find him. His clustering ideas are needed. Also, I hope they look for me like that if a disappear on my sail boat.

  42. Re:Colour me apathetic. by DavidShor · · Score: 1

    Hitler?

  43. Re:Colour me apathetic. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Other people have use the "just following orders" excuse before.

    Corporations are made of people.

    If Microsoft is bad, it's only because people at Microsoft are bad.

  44. Re:Colour me apathetic. by WhatAmIDoingHere · · Score: 1

    Please, don't feed the Trolls.

    --
    Not a Twitter sockpuppet... but I wish I was.
  45. Re:Colour me apathetic. by WhatAmIDoingHere · · Score: 1

    But what about all the good things Hitler did?

    --
    Not a Twitter sockpuppet... but I wish I was.
  46. Re:Colour me apathetic. by aussie_a · · Score: 1

    If I told my parents "Jim Gray died" they'd say "so?" If I went on to explain what he did they'd go "oh, okay."

    Not everyone cares about some random person dying. Because I've got news for you, Antonio died today. Do you care? I doubt it.

  47. He was lost in his work.. by RobiOne · · Score: 1

    You can see it now, a story of intense technical concentration and tragedy. He was preoccupied by an intriguing database problem while his laptop running Vista was crashing.. ..and was never seen or heard from again.

    Mauled by a huge tanker? Chomped on by great white sharks? Or sunk from hitting some sharp rocks at the bottom.. Dr. Who where are you?

    Time for some hound dolphins.

    --
    -- Robi
  48. Strangely worthwhile by bstadil · · Score: 1

    I participated in this search and spend approx 10 hours looking at the pictures. It was strangely satisfying to do, like a meaningful scavenger hunt. I later discovered Stardust@home using the same Amazon Mechanical turk technology. You are helping the scientists find star dust particles in a aerogel. It takes 15min to qualify via a test but is it quite fun and as I said earlier strangely rewarding.

    --
    Help fight continental drift.
  49. DROP TABLE by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Put that in your transaction pipe and smoke it. People go missing daily. He is no exception. He is the RULE, in third-normal form.

  50. Odd by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Odd that this happened on the eve of the Vista launch. Sure hope he hasn't been relocated to a hostile country for a code review...

  51. Re:Colour me apathetic. by k1e0x · · Score: 1

    Ohh you got me ther.. .well.. no.. you didn't actually.

    I think him disgusting, I would fight to stop him, but I wouldn't hate him.

    --
    Bringing liberty to the masses. - http://freetalklive.com/