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1 Billion PCs by End of 2008
javipas writes "Acording to a study published by Forrester Research, 2008 will be the year in wich a psychological barrier will be surpassed. By the end of next year there will be 1.000.000.000 computers all around the world, a number that will double itself in just five more years. The reason: the emerging markets of countries such as Brazil, China, India or Russia, which will be responsible for 775 million new PCs and laptop computers. Part of them, of course, coming from projects like the OLPC's one."
By the end of next year there will be 900.000.000 infected computers.
Extreme Programming - Redundant Array of Inexpensive Developers
Good thing IPv6 is just around the corner, what with two billion PCs in 5 years.
init 11 - for when you need that edge.
[quote]The reason: the emerging markets of countries such as Brazil, China, India or Russia, which will be responsible of 775 new PCs and laptop computers.[/quote]
So there are 999,999,225 PCs right now?
Psychological barrier?
"Hmmmm.. This new shipment will take us over the 1B mark.."
"Oh really? In that case I'm not sure we can manage it."
No folly is more costly than the folly of intolerant idealism. - Winston Churchill
Do we go with "billions and billions of" or the pinky held up to the mouth? Sagan or Evil? Maybe Evil Sagan? Yeah, Evil Sagan. I'm imagining passages from Demon-Haunted World read with a Dr. Evil accent. That's the ticket.
Kwisatz Haderach
Sell the spice to CHOAM
This Mahdi took Shaddam's Throne
Also, referring to 1,000,000,000 as a "psychological barrier" is kind of a strange term. It doesn't block our thought processes. Calling it a "symbolic mile-stone" might be more appropriate.
-dave
http://millionnumbers.com/ - own the number of your dreams
Perhaps we should start making environmentally friendly computers? I certainly don't want any of those toxins in my ground water.
> 1.000.000.000 computers all around the world, a number that will double itself in just five more years
> Brazil, China, India or Russia, which will be responsible of 775 new PCs and laptop computers
That does it - I'm going to invest in the American and European markets! They will be responsible for nearly 99.9999225% of all growth in the PC market. Statistics don't lie.
I feel sorry for all those developing-world coders, fighting for time on less than a thousand new PCs.
You shall see a cow on the roof of a cotton house.
"...2008 will be the year in which a psychological barrier will be surpassed."
If Bill Cosby ever decides to do a "Nerds say the dumbest things" show, it won't be hard to find good material here.
"What kind of music do pirates listen to?" -Paul Maud'dib
"Yeeeaaarrrrr n' Bee!!" -Stilgar, Leader of Sietch Tabr
And almost all of those billion PCs will eventually find their way into tips and landfils, or crude pollutive 'recycling' pots in third world countries.
The turnover of computers is so fast not because of natural outdating and failure of hardware but because of the bloating of operating systems and applications software. Windows 95 only needed 4mb of RAM. The increase of RAM and CPU requirements vastly outstrips increases of functionality and mostly resembles Moore's Law.
People keep on buying expensive new computers to do the same things at the same speed. How many gigabytes of RAM will you need to check your email in 2020?
Imagine a botnet of these!
I think billionth should get a prize. A share in M$... a chair from chairman Ballmer... a big Mac... The mind boggles.
A man spends the first half of his life accumulating stuff, the second trying to get rid of it all.
Better get some hand-cranks on those suckers because in 5 years times electricity (along with gas) will no longer be the take for granted utility that it is now.
Or is it "spelcheck"?
"Prepare for the worst - hope for the best."
Does ANYONE proof-read these things ? *boggle*
To computers, the more important year is 2009 when we'll have 1000000000000000000000000000000 PC's!
10 minutes working on a sig. What a waste.
I'll go for more /. insightful..
But, will those 775 run Linux?
:-P
home
I believe the 775 is a typo in conjunction with the FP. I assume it to mean 77%.
if you steal from one source, that is plagiarism, if you steal from many, well, that's just research.
Actually, I think Microsoft will pee on their chips sometime in the near future. (They already pee on your chips and tell you it's vinegar, but I'm mixing my metaphors there.)
Open Source OSes are going from strength to strength. The only thing Microsoft have anymore is artificial vendor lock-in (which is in breach of EU law). We know about the document formats issue, but there will come a point where the benefit of no longer being tied to Microsoft will outweigh the disadvantage of not being able to open legacy documents anymore. At that point, businesses will just decide to cut their losses.
Je fume. Tu fumes. Nous fûmes!
I suspect this is a classic typo error. A bit like this one: http://www.ntk.net/2003/01/10/dohmus.gif or even this one: http://www.ntk.net/2004/05/28/doh2e.gif
I feel that calling it an "arbitrary mile-stone" would be the most appropriate.
Hopefully they'll ship with a spelling and grammar checker:
Acording [spelling] to a study published by Forrester Research, 2008 will be the year in wich [spelling] a psychological barrier will be surpassed. By the end of next year there will be 1.000.000.000 computers all [no computer is big enough to be "all around the world"] around the world [CC], a number that will double itself [superfluous "itself"] in just five more years. The reason: the [punctuation - first word after a full colon should be capitalized] emerging markets of countries such as Brazil, China, India or [should be "and"] Russia, which will be responsible of [should be "for"] 775 [missing a few zeroes] new PCs and laptop computers. Part of them, of course, coming from projects like the OLPC's one. [awkward sentence construct, wrong use of "them", superfluous "one"]"
It reads like spam ... did anyone actually edit this?
Kevin Smith on Prince
The reason: the emerging markets of countries such as Brazil, China, India or Russia, which will be responsible of 775 new PCs and laptop computers. Part of them, of course, coming from projects like the OLPC's one."
Brazil, China, India OR Russia, make up your minds. ("responsible of 775" and "OLPC's one" already adequately mocked above)
Sacred cows make the best burgers.
Certainly not the case in English English; I don't know if it's true in American English.
"Encyclopedia" is to "Wikipedia" what "Library" is to "Some people at a bus stop"
And my first thought at seeing the title of this was the song 1,000,000 Lawyers by Tom Paxton.
There are already over 2B active cellphones in the world, and there will be more by the end of 2008... an interesting comparison of market penetration.
circa75.com
"Acording"? Kumpooters dune us good!
What did they do, just count the cumulative sum of all the p/cs ever produced, less the number we know have been landfilled? Lots of p/cs are just sitting around unused but not disposed of, lots have just gone into the dumpster and not been counted, and I know there are still windoze 95 machines ( probably not networked ) that are still doing everything their owners want eg Word Perfect. Where did they cutoff?
Funny or not, somebody here doesn't like people mocking the editor's dyslexia, and is modding everybody offtopic.
Nor in American English. Take my comment with a grain of salt, as I always got higher marks in Maths than English. Of course, being on Slashdot, that should be assumed.
Your ad here. Ask me how!
In still other news, both Lunix and OSX will still capture the hearts and minds of an insignificant number of PC users.
Yeah, like .001% of them maybe if you are optimistic?
If you want to look at the facts rather than the hype, look at the Brazilian government's recent tax breaks on computers and its commitment to making computers as universally owned as televisions and making every school broadband-connected. I am sure there are equivalent reasons in Russia, China and India. Maybe even the falling dollar has something to do with that.
You can now go worship Negropoente's cute toy.
Semicolon = next word is lowercase. Full colon = next word is uppercase.
Practical example - look at how you begin letters:
"Dear Sir or Madame:"
Yadda yadda yadda ...
Its the way they taught it in typing class back in the old days of manual typewriters. Just like 2 spaces after each period, 8 spaces == 1 tab, etc. The semi-colon signals "less of an interruption" in the sentence structure.
Kevin Smith on Prince
Isn't English English known as The Queen's English?
Everyone just considered PC's a passing fad. Like electrical pet rocks. With a billion of them, pc's might just be here to stay.
The world is made by those who show up for the job.
We already have over 1 billion computers on the face of the planet (working, non-working, and retired.)
PERSONAL COMPUTERS, on the other hand....
Well, if two-hundred million geeks alone went through 5 computers, we're already there, yet again! Why wait?
Still waiting on Serviscope_minor to wake up to fucking reality and realize that Jessica Price isn't going to fuck him.
While it is great that the use of computers is becoming widespread and accessible to nearly all, what is not great is the fact that most of them will run windows.
They are not going to be buying Dell and other US rip-off brands, they are going to buy direct from the people who make the hardware. The makers are going to ramp up their capacity and sell as cheaply as they can, so long as they are making money. They will continue to do things like this to avoid licensing costs.
OLPC is not going to run Windows and it's a good example of what the future really will be like. M$ has a hard time porting to more than i386, so they are going to miss out on the platforms everyone else is going to use. Sure, there will still be premium hardware, but it's going to be more diverse and free software is better for it. Most of the world's hardware is going to look like OLPC.
There's also a language barrier M$ has never really overcome. Free software has already done a good job. As more people get their hands on computers and demand increases for native platforms, the disparity will only increase.
All of the M$ shortfalls are due to the rigidity of non free software. No one company, no matter how large, can compete with the free world.
Friends don't help friends install M$ junk.
"there is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home"
== Jez ==
Do you miss Firefox? Try Pale Moon.
I was wondering the same thing. Exactly what is Psychological about 1 billion PCs? I mean, did we not think it would get this far? Seriously, we aren't talking the 4 minute mile. We are talking sales of a THING. I don't think it would ever be out of the question to say something would ring a total of 1 billion sales.
RonB
It is human nature to take shortcuts in thinking.
Height: 38U, Weight: 0 Newtons, Eyes: #0000FF, OS: Gray Matter 1.0 (Alpha)
http://web2.uvcs.uvic.ca/elc/studyzone/410/grammar /colons.htm
not capitalized
I don't know why so many when there's only a world market for maybe five computers...
We don't think so.
I did say assume - on purpose because I didn't RTFA. But on the other hand, 775 million is 77% to 78% of a billion.
if you steal from one source, that is plagiarism, if you steal from many, well, that's just research.
IIRC (If I Recall Correctly) that means there is one PC for every six people in the world. So what do people like me who own six computers do to that logic? Am I skewing the numbers or a statistical anomaly?
But seriously folks...
If we really do see 200,000 every five years if a large percentage of these developing markets adopt a non-windows OS as their defacto install base it could represent a significant erosion of the Microsoft OS's position world wide. In time that might not affect US software markets but it would radically affect world wide software markets.
[signature]
A lot is about the price
......
My first PC was over $1,500 with no hard drive and 256K of ram
My second was a loaded 486-33 with a 212 Meg HD and 8 megs of ram at just under $4,000
Last year I bought a 2.4 Ghz P4 desktop system (no monitor) from Dell Outlet for under $200 with shipping
Last month I bought a sub 5 pound used (like new) P3 Compaq Aramada for $130.
Talk on slashdot keeps revolving around a $99 laptop coming soon.
Combine the ever dropping price, with 20+ years of production (i386 and newer) of all the hand me down systems out there, and the 1,000,000,000 is inevitable.
Ike
Well, maybe virtualization, NAS devices, and smartphones will offset some of this. Some companies I've been at don't have server rooms filled to the max with actual physical servers, like say 5 years ago. Every task doesn't necessarily need one full computer dedicated to it anymore (not like it's news to anyone here).
He must have been, because I didn't notice anything wrong with what he said. I actually think he's right and what he pointed out should be corrected... Sometimes mod puzzles me....
And the extra heat from Moniters and PCs will melt our polar icecaps with Global Warming 2.0
~Vexed and loving it!
WTF? Like the person buying the 1 billionth computer will hem and haw and say "Gee I don't know if I should...I mean this will push us up to 1 billion..."
There are nowhere near 2^32 usable IPv4 addresses, let alone free ones. Apart from the millions reserved in private areas (10./8, 127./8 etc) there's a few hundred million tied up by corporations:I P_address_blocks
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assigned_/8_
No. It's a psychological barrier. They are going to kill us. The computer power doubles every 18 months the computer number doubles every five years and our intellect increases slowly by pure biological evolution (that's assuming it's even going in that direction). We're doomed!
It is no longer uncommon to be uncommon.
I find my rating of "flamebait" personally hilarious, since if you'd read my blog you'd find that I am (and have always) been an OLPC supporter. I'm just beginning to get a bit jaded at the constant setbacks, and I've always found that a few personal jabs in the direction of a company you're trying to help can sometimes light a fire under their ass.
I also make fun of ATI (I love them, only use them, but their Linux support is terrible) and AMD (once again, I run only AMD, but they should've spent less money on buying ATI and more money on developing 65nm chips).
It is by my will alone my thoughts acquire motion; it is by the juice of the coffee bean that the thoughts acquire speed
Disclaimer: i couldn't get to the story at work.
What are they calling a 'computer'? If they include embedded devices, im sure we surpassed 1billion long ago. Remember that even a digital watch is technically a computer.
---- Booth was a patriot ----
Well, the one billion figure is just marketing inflation anyway. The real barrier is of course 1024*1024*1024 as everyone here knows....
Slashdot: where don knuth is an idiot because he cant grasp the awesome power of php
Yeah, except that by 2015 when the developing world makes up 775 million, there will be 2 billion computers in use overall, so it'd be ~38% ;)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milliard
countries such as Brazil, China, India or Russia, which will be responsible of 775 new PCs and laptop computers.
They are only counting the ones sold with a legal copy of Vista.
The truth shall set you free!
Unfortunately, you're just wrong: like many other people on slashdot, you have mis-remembered advice given to you when you were younger.
To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
Actually, even more recent online manuals of style allude to the old rule of "capitalize after a colon." They state its not followed so much any more, but that's because of a general laxness in a lot of areas nowadays.
Look at how many people can't spell basic words: "grammer", "gramer", "wierd", "thier", "formating", "referer" - yes, that last one is a stinker we're stuck with in the standards, but we really should break down and fix it.
So - how many "r"s in referrer?
Not one.
Not 2
4
Kevin Smith on Prince
"... how much can a poor nation stand?"
eureka maybe it's cold fusion!!!
Under the influence of Post-Cyberpunk Gonzo Journalism