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2008 - Year of Linux Desktop?
rstrohmeyer writes "Over at Maximum PC, we're betting that Linux will pick up unprecedented momentum in the coming year. With phenomenal new distros, swelling international support, and a little extra momentum from Dell, we think Linux is poised to exploit the current atmosphere of doubt surrounding Vista and pick up serious traction in '08. 'For end users here in North America, Linux poses a low barrier to entry. While many still balk at an upgrade to Vista (typically centered around cost and restrictive licensing terms), those who are curious about the open-source alternative will find few of these obstacles. And an increasingly rich array of ready-to-run software (not to mention surprisingly effective utilities that let you run many Windows apps) makes it easy switch ... Ultimately, I'm not predicting that Linux will take over the market next year. Or anytime soon, for that matter. But if there's ever been a time to try out the world's leading free OS, 2008 will be that time. I am predicting that users will switch to Linux in record numbers next year. And many will never look back.'"
what is linux
It'll happen this time! Honest!
Someone missed to post the 12th anniversary version of the story.
CC.
TaijiQuan (Huang, 5 loosenings)
It's all about the applications. There are too many apps that too many people use that are available on their Windows machines.
There will not be a "year of the Linux desktop".
There will only be the year when people realize that most everyone else is running Linux, too.
It's sad that theres no globally accepted library etc, that all devs use. I mean some apps are mac / windows. why not mac /windows / linux? Since mac runs on a version
of *nix.
And don't give me that wine / cedega bs.
Sadly, until I give up gaming on PC I will have at least one
windows box.
I hope that Linux continues to offer more and more people an alternative though.
Competition is good!
... it's said 'is XXXX the year for the Linux Desktop'?
What would make it so? At what point would it be possible to quantify that 'yes, this IS the year!'... when there is 100,000 users? 500,000 users? 10,000,000 users?
slashdot, of ALL places should understand that Linux is making better ground each year in a number of markets, including the desktop. To say that 'this is the year' we might as well say 'this is the century'. It's impossible to quantify.
This is not the greatest
I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be...
This guy's the limit!
Maximum PC should stick to what they know - fans and heat sinks.
Linux missed the window for the desktop. Now that PCs are expected to play DRM-protected media encoded with proprietary codecs, the window for consumer open source systems has closed. Linux might have made it in 2002, but now it's too late.
I used an AT&T UNIX PC, made and sold by AT&T, in 1982. 25 years later, Unix/Linux on the desktop still isn't mainstream. Sorry, guys.
You need some context in order to make much of that. For instance, it could be that more people have installed Linux and are browsing your site. It could be that your site has been promoted on sites that Linux users tend to frequent thus skewing your hits. It could even be (not likely, but possible) that someone has finally written that DDoS app for Linux and convinced people to load it as a FireFox add-in and it is not distributed enough yet to take your site out. Really, numbers without context are just - well, numbers.
As TFA suggests, perhaps Linux is poised to take off outside the US. Inside the US, I dunno.
I recently installed Ubuntu 7.04 as a family desktop (dual booting with Windows), on a Dimension 8400. Having reading so much about about what a terrific distribution it is, I decided to experiment. (To provide context, I also have a Debian server that handles backup, slimserver, print sharing, and a Myth backend, and a Debian Myth front end. I'm extremely happy with both.) I've been unpleasantly surprised by Ubuntu as a desktop.
1. Playing DVDs in the US remains a problem. I know that Linspire is going to address this, but this is a huge issue.
2. VPN is a pain. Apparently Network Manager doesn't work right if you have a static IP address! I spent a *lot* of time trying to get VPN to work before I discovered this. Yes, it's a reported bug.
3. Reliable power management, i.e. suspension and hibernation. It's crash city when I suspend or hibernate. Yes I have the latest BIOS. No, I'm not willing to buy a new machine. And yes, I'm sure there are many machines where power management works properly, but I'm also sure there are many machines like mine.
4. The general polish of the Gnome interface is low compared to Windows and OS X. (Yes, I've also looked at KDE.) When I switch users, why do I have to log in twice?
These strike me as all pretty basic issues. I haven't tried to find problems. I've just tried to get the Ubuntu desktop working as a functional equivalent of the Windows desktop. I couldn't do it.
I do see huge progress relative to 5 years ago, but I also see a long way to go.
- 1994: No
- 1995: No
- 1996: No
- 1997: No
- 1998: No
- 1999: No
- 2000: No
- 2001: No
- 2002: No
- 2003: No
- 2004: No
- 2005: No
- 2006: No
- 2007: No (pending)
So, though I may be going out on a limb here, I'm gonna say "no" for 2008. And those that think that Vista's awefulness has any sway must have not been around to see how the whole "Windows vs. MacOS" thing played out.No, I'm New Here
Graphic artists, musicians, writers, developers or MBAs -- pick one group and love them until they love you back. Linux Year of the Graphic Artist Desktop will be followed by more desktops. That, after all, is how the Mac stayed alive and prospered, and even how to some degree Windows did it. It all starts with one type of desktop in a nice market, and from there the sky's the limit.
technical writing / development
It seems logical that Linux will keep getting progressively better.
It's "Linux desktop" for me already. All of my computers now exclusively run Linux. I have no Windows installs on my server, firewall, laptop or desktop, and only have a couple of Win2K installs in vmware lying around mostly for the very rare times when I need to compile something for Windows.
For me, the switch to Linux was gradual. I didn't just one day decide to do the switch. Over time, my working Windows installs started failing and I found myself using Linux instead, as it was easier than to spend a weekend reinstalling everything. Eventually I was spending months without booting it, and finally it vanished completely when I upgraded hard disks and didn't have any reason to install it.
I don't really see a "Year of Linux desktop" happening. People seem to like their weird theories about what's holding Linux back, as if changing directory structure, or getting rid of X would suddenly make Linux become really popular overnight. It won't. People will gradually fix the problems there are, and its market share will progressively go up, as people run out of reasons not to use it.
As usual, YMMV.
Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
While the article is nice and points to some great progress in a number of fronts (like Dell's recent announcement about shipping desktops loaded with Ubuntu), Linux still has an enourmous amount of ground to cover before it comes close to being a serious rival to Windows in the consumer desktop market.
Please note that this is just a personal experience which has repeated itself pretty much every time I ran across a new machine.
It is still a bit of work to get Linux to function properly in a machine with recent hardware. As an example, we have a few new Dell boxes with nothing fancy here, just Core 2 Duo processors, SATA drive, and ATI X1300 video cards.
Fedora 6 and 7 both barfed when starting the install because of the SATA DVDROM. Ubuntu had the same behavior.
After 4 hours of checking multiple forums for FAQs and HowTos, we got Fedora 7 running on them, yet the video card isn't recognized properly by Xorg off the box, so no dual-head, no native resolution. Off to get more updates, more FAQs, etc.
By comparison, we had XP running in 30 minutes in one of the boxes, and one hour later it had all the required software needed for the developer to go to work, including VMWare with a Fedora 7 virtual machine running in it.
How can you expect large user migrations to Linux is experiences like this one are closer to the norm? Joe User doesn't want to spend 2 or 3 days just trying to get his OS installed, only to have to spend another few days just trying to get his/her bearings around.
People will *not* migrate to it if the applications they want to run don't run on Linux, and Joe User can't be bothered with adapting to a whole slew of apps, that 'sort-of-look-but-aren't-really-the-same' as their old ones, even if they're superior to their Windows versions when it comes to functionality.
Let's not even start discussing games. Yes, a number of popular games run under Wine or Cedega, but people do not want to spend hours trying to diagnose issues or tweak stuff; more often than not, they want to install it and go.
Until you can take a distribution disk, pop it on a random machine with decent hardware, and have everything up and running without requiring any type of user action 'under the hood', Linux will remain firmly esconced in the realm of server rooms, geek basements, and nerd bedrooms; not in your average household.
"We'll need 2000 crickets, 4 cans of Easy Cheese, and the fluid from 18 glowsticks for this plan to work...." - ph0n1c
Yeah, this article is dead on. Except the time isn't just in 2008. It's right now. I've recently switched about 20 people over to Ubuntu from Windows, and all but one of them were ecstatic. The one exception is a very heavy illustrator user, and said inkscape wasn't good enough. Other than that though, it's been 100% rave reviews and new clients for my little bedroom/repair shop.
rhY
I hold very few opinions. I hold information based on observation and fact. If you wish to disagree, please use facts.
This will probably be the year I replace my Linux desktop with a Mac.
The cake is a pie
But once this percentage gets over, say 5-6%, linux will start having more traction, and will become more difficult/risky/costly to ignore.
IMHO Dell selling a Ubuntu-preloaded machine is not just a vendor having this epiphany, but also a force to promote it with other vendors.
People wanting to sell peripherals to users of Dell products now have a wakeup call about furnishing Linux support - along with a big-name company betting significant resources on a market being big enough to chase.
Bantam Dominique roosters crow a four-note song. Once you've heard it as "Happy BIRTHday" you can't NOT hear it that way
Everyone has their own niche that stops them from going to Linux, for example I have a dual boot with Ubuntu, and have had it for some time, but I still spend most of my time in Windows, why you may ask? Well it's because Adobe hasn't released any of it's media tools for Linux, I'm telling you that the second that Adobe releases Photoshop (please don't give me the whole "but there's GIMP!" crap), Premier and Flash, I will not be going back to Windows.
The problem is that Adobe won't release those until it sees enough activity in the Linux department, and yes, I hate them for that, but from a business point of view it's understandable.
I just introduced a friend of mine to Ubuntu Studio, because he's a musician and is now happily dual booted with Ubuntu Studio, but his favourite application is Reason which keeps him chained to Windows, the company Propellerhead, has an OS X version and a Windows version, why not a Linux version? Who knows, either the same excuse that Adobe gives, or they're just happily raking in the money and can't be bothered expending into unknown territory.
Linux can be the OS in 2008, or 2009, or whatever other date you choose, I say "you" because it is up to the musicians and the artists and anyone else who wants Linux support for their favourite software to start complaining in massive numbers to the relative companies. As soon as that happens they'll have no choice.
"we've got trenchcoats and bad attitudes" - John Constantine, HellBlazer
Imagine a Beowulf cluster of "Year of the Desktop" announcements!
<ducks/>
And Linux does not come with great software for internet (Firefox), email (Evolution/Thunderbird), photos (Gimp/GimpShop/Krita), and multimedia (Totem/Amarok/RhythmBox)? That blows...
And for a very simple reason: there's no compelling reason for your average computer to switch away from Windows or OS X.
Now, full disclosure: I run OS X and Linux at home and whatever OS is needed at work, usually OS X, sometimes Windows. Of the three I prefer OS X, but I'm pretty agnostic.
That said, the unspoken truth about OS choice is that for most of the things an average computer user does--web, email, music, movies, games, porn--Windows does a good enough job. This isn't to say it does a great job. This isn't to say that OS X or Linux don't do a better job. This is just to say that Windows does a good enough job for most people. In other words, Linux has no killer app. The things which important for the F/OSS community (transparency, free as in speech and beer, DIY) aren't important to average computer users. For your average user, a computer is an appliance like a fridge or a microwave, to be purchased, used until it breaks or is too old, and then replaced with a new one. For Linux to gain appreciable market share it will have to be a better product: it will have to do something much better than Windows. It will also have to have the things people expect from products; warranties, 1-800 numbers and tech support.
Apple's way of differentiating is to make the GUI more accessible for your average user, and to design a vertically integrated suite of hardware and software which reinforce each other. Linux, so far, has no easily identifiable feature or set of features which say, "Hey, I'm better than Windows." Until it does, there will be no Year of Linux on the Deskop.
I am a believer of momentum and curves.
The problem with Linux is that it no one is marketing it. Showing an ad on television does indeed work. When was the last time you had seen a commercial on television about Linux?. Anyone will almost buy anything or try anything if they see an ad for it, as it will increase the knowledge of said product. To most of the general population Linux is unheard of or is merely known as an "underground" operating system. I bet just a couple of commercials on some of the more watched networks would spark the interest of quite a few followers. What do you think?
So I exported the database into a GED file. (I think that's what it was called.) and imported it into Gramps on Ubuntu 7.04.
She is quite happy with it.
The race isn't always to the swift... but that's the way to bet!
For me this was the definitive year of Ubuntu on the desktop. The rest I don't really care. It worked totally fine in my computer, and unlike windows XP I didn't require any driver CD to make my hardware work. All the apps are good enough for my needs, and since I was very used to programming on light weight IDES (that means no bloat or the need to have funny features beyond code completion) code::blocks is doing fine for me.
The reason I switched is that it is is far easier to customize and make it do what I want. Very few people might notice that MS hates when you customize windows, and Apple won't even let you do more than changing the wallpaper.
Games? Well... what happened is that I... grew up. I don't really need those flashy 3d accelerated games out there that now sound so expensive, I guess I am getting old already, but can survive with just Sudoku, I am afraid I don't think anymore my computer should be somekind of game station, consoles would do that job better anyways.
Look? I think I made my gnome look absolutely gorgeous, It is MY computer thus I don't really care about how much people think OS/X is the prettiest thing ever invented.
Show off value? I tried compiz-fusion and emerald and It makes the desktop absolutely awesome, I made it a toggle button so if somebody is gonna look and my desktop I enable those effects.
App compability? My emergency plan is using a virtual machine, but what's fun Is that I don't really need any windows app anymore... Yes, it is a different story for everybody, I know
Easy of use? I use this ubuntu OS and it hasn't really given me issues yet, I don't spend 3 hours trying to make everything work like some guys out there say they do when they use Linux.
Multimedia? Totem tells me when I have to download
Applications? I just use firefox , gedit , code::blocks , brazero, nautilus and the terminal. For odd reasons I don't need more things, I was surprised I can have a totally usable (for me) computer without any cost besides of hardware (This is country almost have no OEMs)
The winner: Organization has made me more productive, I like emblems and workspaces, those are features I now find essential.
All in one to me Ubuntu was complete and does the job correctly for me, and I switched.
Go ahead, and post all the reasons you think Linux is not ready for the desktop, all of them are wrong. People will switch once they like it, and this is a war that is not going to be won instantly, it is the satisfaction it can give to each person.
I've seen it since 3 years ago and I know how fast it can improve, I think i evolves faster than OS/X and windows, in fact Vista always copies Mac OS/X features and I found recently that Linux got so good, that apple is now stealing its ideas! so I think we are gonna do fine.
On alternative situations, like OLPC, education, servers , even Bolivarian PCs, etc. Linux has already won. And we just got to wait
And then we have KDE4, it is getting that Mac OS/X look that so much people like, yet it is implemented in a cleaner way and also getting some very outstanding features, and it gets the advantage of being free. KDE4 might just need some luck to give the world a great surprise.
I think even MS is noticing it, that's the reason they are being much more aggressive towards the open source world.
So go ahead and say "NO 2008 IS NO LINUXYEAR AND NEVER WILL HAPPEN " or "2008 is OS/X year because 2 guys and I decided to SWITCH!" I don't care, I think Linux is doing fine, I also don't think getting a good market share is any important, I think Linux is improving faster than the rest and will eventually surpass the rest (although for me it already has)
The rest is sipmply chicken-egg paradox with cycles like "Nobody will use linux until it has good apps and nobody will make good apps for linux until it gets a lot of users" (cliche also works with "games", and "hardware support")
Copyright infringement is "piracy" in the same way DRM is "consumer rape"
You can use the Windows XP recovery console from the CD. That thing has like, five whole commands!
Send email from the afterlife! Write your e-will at Dead Man's Switch.
Loki is gone, but they went bankrupt because their CEO and his wife thought of the company's account as their personal ATM. Loki had no problem turning a profit on porting Windows games -- it was their looting of the finances that drove the company under.
PS. It's been a few years since Loki, and there're more Linux users now. You might wanna update your stupid flamebait.
Funny. I thought that was 2004.
... It's a tool. Nothing more. If the tool is working you, instead of you working the tool, it's time to get a new tool.
Or was it 2006?
Or was it actually 2002 and then it burst in 2006?
Umm... 2003?
Oh! Stupid me! It was 1999! Yeah. definately 1999. I mean. It's not like Linus would the exact same thing five years later.
It had to be 1999, because it was Almost Ready(tm) for the desktop back in 1994 when I first used it!
Now, tell me again. Why do I have a mac? Oh that's right. It's Unix, but I don't have to sysadmin it like Linux.
Yes yes. "Some people like to learn about their machine." [emphasis original] Ahh yes. I was once like you, some 13 years ago this fall. Then I got a bit older, and perhaps a bit wiser, and learned that there was much more important things than screwing around with sendmail, or 3d acceleration, or hotplug vs devfs, or ipchains vs ipfwadm, or oss vs alsa, or cups vs lpr, or
We've been hearing Linux was "almost ready" for almost 10 years now. Who's got the earliest link to this old saw? I've got Linus in 1999. There's got to be something earlier?
For those of you who truly hate your grandmothers, you can always set them up with LFS. :)
- The Year of the Linux Desktop! (2007)
- 2006: The year of desktop Linux?
- 2005 will be the year of the Linux Desktop
- Linux breaks desktop barrier in 2004: Torvalds
- I am convinced that 2003 is going to be the breakout year for Desktop Linux.
Try this instead: Year of the Linux desktop? Who cares!It just took four years to finally become funny.
XP as sold by default does NOT support SATA DVD. If you installed XP from the DVD, it *would* work (as in boot), but would *not* see the DVD. It would ALSO not see your "recent" network interface. The only way to get stuff in would be via USB key.
So -- XP is a no-go on that particular machine, UNLESS it is customized by the hardware vendor, which is NOT a fair comparision.
I call Liar.
Just another "Cubible(sic) Joe" 2 17 3061
The problem with that line of reasoning is that ANY Operating System takes "way more skill and experience to run and configure" than the average user is capable of even thinking about. That's why they buy computers with the OS preconfigured. Hell, Windows can be a nightmare to reinstall on a machine that was previously running it (I'm looking at YOU Mr. XP-I-don't-understand-SATA-drives).
Until major vendors both load, configure and advertise Linux, it won't make large inroads on Mr. Average User. Linux will make inroads in larger organizations who aren't tied to running some dimwitted Windows application and whose IT group wants to move away from 3.1 / XP /Vista headaches. It will happen because those people don't NEED Windows anymore.
I still think that someday soon, maybe not in Vista 2, but perhaps Vista 3 you will see Microsoft run a Windowy shell on top of some *NIX base. Just like Apple. It's just too easy to do once you swallow your pride and bolt down the chairs.
Faster! Faster! Faster would be better!
public class YearOfLinuxDesktop extends SlashdotArticle {
private static year = 1995;
public YearOfLinuxDesktop() { }
public YearOfLinuxDesktop(int year) {
this.year = year;
}
public String getNextArticle() {
year++;
return "Is " + year + " the year of the Linux Desktop?"
}
public static void main(String args[]) {
YearOfLinuxDesktop yold = new YearOfLinuxDesktop();
while(1) {
System.out.println(yold.getNextArticle());
Thread.sleep(31536000000L);
System.out.println("Nope, apparently not, but...");
}
}
}
Wait... forgot the @deprecated tag. Oh, well, the FreeBSDIsDead class has the same functionality, I'm sure nobody'll use this one...
Demanding constant attention will only lead to attention.
What are we going to do this year, Brain?
The same thing we do every year, Pinky - take over the Desktop!
"It is our blasphemy which has made us great, and will sustain us, and which the gods secretly admire in us." - Zelazny
A blog about stuff.