Psychology, Design and Economics of Slot-Machines
6 writes "Technology isn't just about design and hardware; sometimes it's about psychology, politics, sociology, and economics. The website of Stanford design prof Michael Shanks is hosting a student project by William Choi and Antoine Sindhu, a fascinating online course about slot machines. From the site: 'Much research has been devoted to studying gambling behavior from various points of view, including the psychological, social, economic, and political bases and implications of gambling ... [just the same,] focusing on slot machines reveals and inspires the study of many sociological issues that have come to express themselves specifically and notably on these machines. Here, we examine a number of these issues, attempting to link slot machines to them in an effort to better understand and explain them.'"
If you give a rat a bit of food every time it presses a bar (or on every n presses) -- it'll learn to press the bar the requisite number of times when it is hungry. If you provide a food nugget on a varying number of presses, e.g., 1 press=win, 3 presses=win, 10 presses=win, 4 presses=win -- it'll punch the bar all day.
At least, that's how I recall a psych prof of mine from college explaining why slot machines were so profitable.
What changed under Obama? Nothing Good
I read a New York Times article on this subject a while back -- it was about professional slot machine designers. It referred to an insidious concept with the charming title, "cherry dribbling." Basically, it means figuring out the ratio of payouts to losses that defines the optimal rate to pick a slot-machine player's pocket. Pay out too much and obviously the slot-machine owner will lose. Pay out too little and people begin to feel like suckers and stop playing. Get it just right -- super happy profit!
Add a lot of bells and whistles to amuse people while they're getting fleeced and it's almost like they're enjoying it. (But most importantly, make sure that when they put a $1 in you credit them only $1.)
I'd have to look up the article to find what the ratio was, but the margin was surprisingly slim.
Innovation makes enemies of all those who prospered under the old regime... -- Machiavelli
[i]
Just like a real slot machine, we found that the online simulator had a very high frequency of "near misses." Nearly every one in four reel spins had two of the same symbol, and the third matching symbol just slightly off on third reel. This is precisely the technique used in real slot machines to keep people addicted--it creates the illusion that you have "almost" won. In addition, small payouts happened with surprising frequency, replenishing the pool of available money and keeping the game dynamic.
[/i]
I work for a company that makes video and mechanical slot machines. This quote is just plain wrong. In fact, intentionally displaying "near misses" is illegal in pretty much every single gaming jurisdiction. It is simply the perception by the player.
Additionally, a game with many small payouts is normal! Games that pay out many small amounts and rarely a large amount are known in the industry as "bleeders." However, it isn't an intentional scheme that is devised to separate the player from his money. There is a concept of machine "volatility" -- the math for a set of reel strips can be devised to be more or less volatile. Less volatile means frequent small payouts and very very infrequent large payouts. More volatile means there aren't a lot of small payouts, but a large payout is a little bit more likely than on a less volatile game. In either case, the machine hold percentages can be the same (or whatever the casino configures -- as long as it is legal in that particular jurisdiction. In my experience, most places will configure paytables with the lowest legal payout percentage in that particular jurisdiction -- especially if a game is new on the floor.)
slot machines are designed to take your money. News at 5!
It's a student project, and it shows. The article is superficial. The first two sources listed are Wikipedia and HowStuffWorks. There's a page on the Simpsons. You get the general idea.
Considerable work has been done on gambling psychology, but they didn't find it. There's an online Journal of Gambling Issues, with papers like Slot machine structural characteristics: Distorted player views of payback percentages. There's an annual trade show, Global Gaming Expo, and even an institute of higher learning devoted to the subject, the International Gaming Institute, part of (inevitably) the University of Las Vegas.
Their "experimental work" consisted of playing "freeslots.com". They didn't even notice that the "free slots" programs are set to have an expectation greater than zero when played in free mode. In fact, it's quite difficult to lose at "freeslots".
Industry analysis of player psychology has gone way beyond the stuff mentioned in this student paper. The big breakthrough was when slot machines started accepting player affinity cards. Today's casinos have the player's entire history, at the per-click level, on file, and considerable effort goes into mining that data. Some studies have compared what players have thought they won versus the casino's history of their track record. Many players don't even know that they're losing, let alone how much.
If you want to read about this subject, start with Super Casino, an 1999 inside look at some major Las Vegas properties.
...Stay away from the light!
I've spent some time with slot machine code -- I actually love the old reel machines (which are generally the only ones you can own based on most state laws), and I've done some minor consulting with casinos in Las Vegas. The near misses are not encoded into the machine.
It is easy to believe the machines are built to take your money, but it has nothing to do with preset expectations. They truly are random, but each wheel has a specific number of possible results. Each wheel is independently picked from a random number generator with numbers picked at the instant you hit the spin button or pull the lever.
All 3 or 4 wheels might have a number of possible positions, numbering as high as 1024 per wheel. The first half of those numbers (say, 0-511) will be "blank" hits, so the wheel will stop on a blank. Then another 256 or so might be a symbol with a low payout, and then you get progressively less hits on the higher paying symbols. As you move further down the wheel, you get even fewer high paying "hit" numbers. The big payout only occurs on one or two numbers per wheel.
When the right combination of random numbers occurs, you win a payout. The chance is slim, with most machines paying out a percentage avering 85-92% over infinite spins, based purely on the mathematical chance of hitting a specific combination of random numbers in a spin.
Seeing those "near hits" is only because white "loser" spots on the wheel are always surrounded by symbols. Those near misses are almost always symbols that would pay SOMETHING, but rarely do you get 3 symbols that are near misses of the jackpot.
This summer, I spent a considerable amount of time in LV -- I was on a consulting project each month and stayed at the Paris casino. Over two days, I decided to "track" the play on a given slot machine, by attempting to jot down the results. The machine is certainly random, and if you watch a machine long enough and write down the actual results (landed on white space between red 7 and blue 7, landed on red 7, landed on cherry), you can eventually come up with the percentage chance of hitting a particular symbol. You need thousands of spins on a particular machine, but you'll get those percentages eventually.
In a game with less of a mathematical payout chance than 100%, the casino doesn't need to cheat. It's already guaranteed a profit on the lifetime of the machine. Some players do win in Vegas -- those who walk away after their first penny of profit. Everyone else eventually has the math get the best of them.
SIDENOTE:I don't condone gambling, but I do like the entertainment value of meeting up with a few friends and spending a few hours at the craps tables. $25 bets over a 4 hour period, betting the pass line with full odds, has a very low risk of losing your money (1.4% risk of ruin with a $2000 bankroll). The comps you receive in exchange more than make up for any loss. That's the only game in Vegas I think still has a slight player's edge, with comps and freebies added in.
Can anybody tell the difference? I prefer Keno myself. Drink fast and pay slow.
What?
Snap! Krackle! Pop!
I was thinking today: If someone wins at a slot machine, they tell other people and get them interested in the trip to a casino. Now when people lose, they don't go bragging like they do when they win so negative publicity is low. It's always,"Hey I bought a motorcylce with my winnings." or,"I played all day on one dollar."
God spoke to me.
The last time I was in a casino, I realized that out of the thousands of drones sitting at machines, not a single one was smiling. Aren't they there to have fun? Must be something like grinding and farming in an MMORPG...lots of unpleasant time spent "having fun".
I repeat: Thousands of people. Zero smiles. Legions of bleary-eyed bleak-souled drones.
I have no moral problem with gambling, and it doesn't bother me that there are four casinos within two hours drive of my house...but I just can't understand why any of those people are there, doing that. They sure don't look like they're having fun. (And, you may ask, why was I there? Restaurants.)
Procrastination -- because good things come to those who wait.
Wikipedia is cited as a source
The authors show a fundamental misunderstanding of what's going on:
Essentially, then, significant government regulation of gambling and casinos means protecting people from themselvesfrom their own innate psychology.
It's amazing how they could come to such a conclusion after detailing so many manipulative and deceptive practices. The lighting, the drinks, the drugged air the arrangement of odds are all lies. Because people do not know they are being lied to, it's hardly fair to say that regulating Casinos is protecting people from themselves.
Taking things from people you are lying to is called fraud. It is a crime and it is indirectly violent because the victim must work and make sacrifices to replace what was stolen. Casinos as they exist in the US are practicing fraud. Outlawing these disgusting institutions is no more paternalistic than banning other forms of theft. It's that simple.
Friends don't help friends install M$ junk.
I have actually built an online casino for a third party in Monaco and they aked us to rig the slotmachines so they would pay out more than their natural randomness would do, because they want their clients/addicts to have as much fun as possible for as long as possible before they run out of money. We even had a button that they could press in the management pages that would trigger a Jackpot within 50 games or so to keep the customer happy. When someone was gambling they would monitor how much money he had lost and if it became too much, they would grant him the jackpot so he could play a few more hours before that money was gone too. Of course the software was coded never to pay out more than a fixed percentage but the percentages were all in the 95-98% range.
Interesting read but I definitely have to say that I'm enjoying the SeeMeWin gambling experiment better. The hot chicks don't hurt. Now that's research!
I'm in the Province of British Columbia, Canada. Some of the slots here don't play fair. They randomly and briefly (to quick to see, really, but caught on camera) flash a picture of the grand-prize winning symbols all lined up for the big payout. They do this randomly while you are playing them.
These slots were pulled out of the casinos in the Province of Ontario. I think *somebody* is paying $$$ to *somebody* because the slot machines are still in the casinos here.
Oh ya, the manufacturer of the slot machines said it was a "programming error"!
If you provide a food nugget on a varying number of presses, e.g., 1 press=win, 3 presses=win, 10 presses=win, 4 presses=win -- it'll punch the bar all day.
What you see at work here is the power of an intermittent reward. A reward that's given every time is soon despised but one that has to be worked for always has value. Perverse, isn't it? It explains much of the crazy loyalty of M$ fans and their dissatisfaction with things that just work. Intermittent positive reward is the most powerful kind of training.
Slot machines are the ideal gambling machine. In a game of even chances, the side with the most resources will eventually win. Casinos are allowed to tilt the odds in their favor. They still win, but they do best when those odds are expressed as purely as possible as the result of a long series of trials. That is, the casino is most assured of taking all of your money on a greater number of small bets than they are with a small number of large bets. The ideal slot machine would cost nothing to run and accept pennies and exist everywhere, so that anyone could drop their money in at any time.
Friends don't help friends install M$ junk.
I just checked out the seemewin.com site from your post. An hour and a half later... wow, it's addicting. I'm about to go out and buy some scratch tickets myself. They won about 5 times in a row. That NEVER happens by probability alone. Read their blog... I think they may be on to something about the distribution of winning tickets.
who considers gambling, lotteries and similar things a tax on stupidity?
Or, to put it in a nicer way, a tax on the lack of knowledge about math and statistics?
The lighting and drinks are lies? What does that mean? The drugged air? I've heard of that conspiracy theory, but as far as I know, it's only that -- a conspiracy theory
The article's authors believe otherwise and explain themselves before deciding that regulating fraudulent practices in casinos was some kind of paternalistic, protecting the marks from themselves move. Allow me to quote what they said because you are too lazy to read or to protective to acknowledge the practices.
The mark is kept unaware of the passing of time by artificial lighting.Near misses manipulate the player's sense of odds
Manipulation of payout odd placement Drugging patrons."Free" drinks and ordinary odds are not deceptive like the above is. The mark is unaware of the powerful emotional manipulation at work. This is not a friendly game of cards, it's fraud.
Friends don't help friends install M$ junk.
...or an unimaginably small sample size, or confirmation bias?
ResidntGeek
Solt machine operates on a simple principle that is anticipation of rewards. This is demostrated by one of Skinner's expirement.
The expirement sets up like this. A pegon is placed in front of a sensor and every time when the pegon pecks at the sensor out comes food. So the pegon knows that if it pecks at the sensor it will have food. The next step is to see what if the food does not come out all the time? The food will only come out at a random interval as the pegon pecks at the sensor. As it turned out that the pegon still pecks at the sensor. Finally, what if there is no more food? Will the pegon keeps on pecking at that sensor? The answer turned out to be yes and the pegon keeps on pecking at the sensor.
I hope by this time people would see how this expirement relates to slot machines. Imagine replacing the pegons with human and that sensor is the spin arm/button. The reward of course is money. One would hope that we are smarter then the pegons, but we already know that sometimes it's not always true.
Also, the slot machine operates on the principle of probability/prize combo and that determines the payback percentage. A simple example would be coin flips. Let say you have a 2 sided coin and the only way the player could win is when the coin turned up heads. Let's even simplify by making the pay out as even money. For every dollar wagered, if the player wins, he gets 2 dollars back. Based on that, using the basic stuff we learned from the stat class, the payback percentage is 100% for this game (Some of you are going to say wait, the odds is 50/50 so that means the payback is 50%, but don't forget to factor in how much the player will get if he wins). This means for every dollar that the player wagered, the casino does not keep anything. Of course, this is after several million game cycle has already occured. In order for the casino to get anything, the casino will have to play around the game rules such as the player could win if let say the coin will flip twice and the only way to win is have 2 heads.
The above example is a very simplstic example, but I hope it demostrated how the slot machine works. A typical 3 reel usually have around 64 to 512 stops per reel. This means you can have 64^3 to 512^3 possible combos. By varying the symbols on the stops and the winning combo including prizes per combo, one can vary the payback percentage. It doesn't really matter the "theme" of the slot, the basic principle will always remain the same.
Oh BTW, I used to program slot machines for a living.
How about a study on the effects of reading a white-on-black website has on the mind, including the homicidal tendendices that follow?
Seriously, that trend started back in like 1997. Can we put it to rest?
-David
When you want to know about a predatory industry like Casinos you should always use the material provided by the predators for the prey. You will always find full confessions from those in such an honest trade. Insider guides, even employee manuals, should be taken as gospel truth. Allegations by outsiders who point to public records of deceptive practices should be ignored.
Friends don't help friends install M$ junk.
You're calling other people crazy yet you've found a way to turn this discussion into anti-Microsoft hate propaganda yet again like the countless others. You're not even talking about how great something is, you're talking about how much it sucks, constantly. If you hate it so much why do you focus on it to the point where you can't have a normal conversation about anything BUT this single topic?
It's what happens when people build their entire persona around a single idea. The best thing to do with people who exhibit a singular focus is to ignore them, lest you get sucked into their psychological pathology inadvertently.
Slashdot - where whining about luck is the new way to make the world you want.
it is addicting i agreee
I went to Atlantic City this one time, and saw this car sitting there with a handful of bank cards lying in the seat. Whipped out my slim jim and popped the sucker open. Got a free car and a few hundred bucks' worth of cards out of the deal. Bet the owner wished he'd stayed home. I was so amazed by my luck that I stopped by the Ripley's museum to see if they wanted to buy my story. The losers said that they weren't interested because apparently this kind of thing happens all the time there. So, I sold the car and the cards to some guy at a chop shop, headed to the nearest casino, and blew the whole wad on the slots.
I've herd that some of the notes a slot machine generates entices people to play.
It is in the best interest of casinos for their games to be fair. They want their machines to follow the rules exactly, and be as random as possible - the math takes care of the rest. If they weren't following the rules, Nevada and the public would get them shut down very quickly.
I really don't like the way such places try to manipulate people. The near misses aren't manipulated by the machine's operation, but the game's layout is designed such that near misses are a natural result. The methods used by casinos very much the same crap as supermarkets micromanaging item placement to trick you and your children into buying more items and more expensive items. I dislike that more than the idea of going somewhere to lose money.
By the way, I'm one of those Vegas winners you speak of. I was bored and waiting for a show so I sat and played quarter video poker. I got a royal flush on the 4th hand - $1000. Walked away immediately, and haven't gambled since then. Lost a total of maybe $30 in my life before then on similar cheap games.
"Screw Sun, cross-platform will never work. Let's move on and steal the Java language." - Visual J++ Product Manager
not programmed.. well, maybe.. or just "coding mistakes"
o ttery.html?ref=rss
;)
Reminded me of a story back in January'07 regarding a bunch of slot machines that all had a "bug" where a jackpot would flash by on a fairly regular basis. Seemed to blatant to be a mistake.
Here's the story:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2007/02/25/video-l
excerpt:
"But players who stick to a machine are seeing a winning image every two seconds, the time it takes for one spin, and that concerns Roger Horbay, an electronic gaming specialist who has treated hundreds of problem gamblers."
I've written a decent slot machine in flash ( toozy.com - but lack of advertising might make your click expensive to me ) and was amazed at how interested certain friends were with the project. One friend, who was not known for attending classes regularly, cut and pasted repeatedly in a spreadsheet program to do odds calculations. I broke down and validated my calculations using a brute force java code too - the odds when various wild card combinations were thrown in became quite convoluted! It was a very educational project - yes it's all math ( or should be ) but one thing I was dismayed at was the fact that the bonus games are pre-determined.. so if you are picking which fishing rod to pull in your bonus game just click any of them.. you're just deciding which one gets to show the result of the random number generator!
Speaking of suggestive.. my security image to submit this post on slashdot is "enlist"
Can You Win? by Mike Orkin, published by SciAm. Has a PhD in Mathematics and is a recreational gambler.
A funny book that shows the average sucker (me) the odds on various types of gambling: horses the Lotto, baseball. The craps table is the bestest when there's a giggly blonde having a good time with her sugar daddy's money.
Science Dedicated to ripping off the stupid.
Wow, just like fast food marketing!
The featured article discusses an online slot machine emulator that they used as part of their research. This emulator is on a website that, once you feel you have won an appropriate number of credits, lets you "enter a sweepstakes" with those winnings. Needless to say, while playing the emulator, it is almost impossible not to end up ahead after a reasonable number of plays, since the company wants you to enter their sweepstakes.
The article then goes on to say that this emulator formed a good part of the author's research into slot machines. With research like that, how can you go wrong?
More noteworthy, gaming regulations require that slot machines that are posted as having a certain percentage payout must pay out that amount. In Las Vegas and Atlantic City, there are slots with signs reading "99.8% Payout" (in other words, the vigorish -- the fee charged by the casino for the privilege of gambling there -- is 0.2%). If slot players were rational, they would line up to play these machines; they could play longer and win more often. Instead, in my experience, these machines sit empty. Inference: Most slot players don't understand the concept of vig, or don't care.
You can sometimes find video poker machines posted as paying over 100%, of course you need to know an optimal VP strategy to take advantage of them.
Actually, a craps pass or come line bet with full odds has a house percentage far less than 1.4% (with Las Vegas 3x/4x/5x odds, it's about 0.55%). The 1.4% house edge is only on the pass or come line ("flat") bet, the odds are free (0% house advantage). This is also different from the "risk of ruin" which is calculated as the odds you will lose all of your money after X number of bets. And yes, if you stick to pass or come line bets with full odds (avoiding other more expensive bets), you might well have a +EV if you include the value of "comps."
If you're going to link to your own posts as evidence, can you at least choose one that isn't quite so thoroughly debunked?
"It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him." - Tolkien
It's idiotic to call them tactics against a "mark" ... Here is where I have first hand experience that shows you're on crack. ... You're a nut case. ... Seriously, you're nuts. ...
If I'm crazy, why are you talking to me? I don't mind, but you need to build some reading comprehension skills and manners.
I don't have any claims other than the hypocrisy of the original article. They, not I make all of these claims. You and I both agree that if some of these claims are true they are a violation of law and that regulating them is not only sensible it's already happened. We may quibble over the morality of the rest but it's silly to believe all of the above and then say that regulations are paternalistic.
Of course, I don't need claims to think Casinos are disgusting and predatory. There is little social good they do to justify the harm they also do. Things were better when people ran restaurants instead.
Friends don't help friends install M$ junk.
You, sir, if you are not confused, you are at least confusing me. I thought this article had to do with slot machines ..... oh, wait... I think I follow. There are fewer women in science 'cause they are occupied with the slots, and as a source of quick money (to stay off the slots for the shortest possible time) they're hooking.
Tell me, have I captured your thought correctly ?
How many beans make five, anyhow ?
HAHAHAHAHAH, Oh my god!!!!! Look everyone, twitter is insulted! He's telling someone to work on their reading comprehension!! HAHAHAHA!!! Oh my god, and manners!!! This, from "shit fuck rape fuck shit" twitter!! HAHAHAHA!!!
Cite, please? Neither Google nor the NYTimes website (searchable articles since 1981) returns any NYTimes article containing the term "cherry dribbling."
One really wonders why the hell these kids chose to do a student project on slot machines, when by their own admission the closest they've ever been to a slot machine is watching one on an episode of The Simpsons. The article is full of urban myths and unsourced nonsensical claims.
"Casino planners know that slot players love to see and hear other people winning on nearby machines, because players hold it as evidence that money can be made on the machines. Thus casinos are designed to have the loosest machines in prominent areas"
Do you really believe a casual observer can tell the difference between a 95% slot and a 98% slot? It'd take dozens of hours of nonstop play before the difference in the results would become statistically significant - and the authors are suggesting that passersby will be influenced by a highly visible slot being looser over a stretch of a few seconds or minutes!
I've played in casinos where games returning 90% sit a few feet away from identical games returning 95%, and very few of even the most regular players, who spend many hours a week in front of the machines, show any sign of recognizing that one is better than the other.
"Studies have shown that carpeting is often purposefully jarring to the eyes, which draws customers' gaze upwards toward the machines on the gambling floor."
First of all, *everything* in a casino is jarring to the eyes! I have no idea to what "studies" they refer, and God forbid they give a source, but they overlook the most obvious reason for the carpets - casino carpets are filthy! They're heavily trafficked and routinely have drinks spilled on them. A busy pattern helps disguise the stains.
"It is nearly impossible not to feel as though one is being almost forced to spend money the moment one sets foot in a casino."
Really? Because my reaction has always been to get to where I'm going as soon as possible to get away from the noise and smoke. Stop projecting.
Since the AC who posted this comment was obviously unequal to the task of finding the article, I tracked it down:
The Tug of the Newfangled Slot Machines (May 9, 2004 By GARY RIVLIN)
That should be enough to get anyone interested in going the right direction. Don't expect to find a free copy on the New York Times's site, where articles are only available for free for a very limited time.
From the article:
At 8 p.m. on a warm midsummer's night, Baerlocher watched a
woman dressed in green polyester pants and a
yellow-and-white-striped short-sleeved top play a slot
machine he designed called ''The Price Is Right.'' At
first, the woman's body language was noncommittal: she
stood half-turned from the game, as if no more than mildly
curious about the outcome of her wager. ''Price'' is what
slot pros call ''a cherry dribbler,'' a machine that
dispenses lots of small payouts while it nibbles at your
stash rather than biting off large chunks of it. ''You want
to give the newbie lots of positive reinforcement -- to
keep 'em playing,'' Baerlocher told me. As if on cue, the
woman hit a couple of small jackpots and took a seat.
''Gotcha,'' Baerlocher said softly under his breath.
Innovation makes enemies of all those who prospered under the old regime... -- Machiavelli