Slashdot Mirror


French Threat To ID Secret US Satellites

SkiifGeek brings to our attention a story that ran on space.com a few months back but didn't get much wider notice at the time. "The French have identified numerous objects in orbit that do not appear in the ephemeris data reported by the US Space Surveillance Network. Now, the US claims that if it doesn't appear in the ephemeris data, then it doesn't exist. The French insist that at least some of the objects they have found boast solar arrays. Therefore it seems that the French have found secret US satellites. While they don't plan to release the information publicly, they do intend to use it as leverage to get the US to suppress reporting of sensitive French satellites in their published ephemeris."

99 of 355 comments (clear)

  1. Headline by RedWizzard · · Score: 2, Informative

    Shouldn't that be "French Threaten to ID Secret US Satellites"?

    1. Re:Headline by deftcoder · · Score: 4, Funny

      It's a kdawson story... he just randomly clicks 'accept' without even looking at them.

      --
      Peace sells, but who's buying?
    2. Re:Headline by JonathanR · · Score: 3, Funny

      Shouldn't they just offer them for sale on eBay?

    3. Re:Headline by tajmahall · · Score: 3, Informative

      Shouldn't that be "French Threaten to ID Secret US Satellites"? There was (apparently) a threat to ID secret US satellites. The threat was French.
    4. Re:Headline by LouisZepher · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Only the fact that the French are threatening to identify secret satellites is public, the actual identity of said satellites (where they can be found), however is not.

    5. Re:Headline by AVee · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Nope, the headline should be:
      "French discover secret US sattelites, but will not disclose the information, unlike the US does."

      It's even in the summary: "While they don't plan to release the information publicly, they do intend to use it as leverage to get the US to suppress reporting of sensitive French satellites in their published ephemeris."

      And I was thinking reading the article was difficult for some. Apparently just reading the summary is to hard for some people here. Yeah, i'm looking at you kdawson...

    6. Re:Headline by switc4 · · Score: 3, Funny

      Surely 'Mutualy Assured Dissemination'.

  2. US? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    They are hoping they are US satellites and not Chinese[insert evil empire name] satellites.

    1. Re:US? by sepluv · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If they were Chinese why would the US be denying they existed?

      --
      Joe Llywelyn Griffith Blakesley
      [This post is in the public domain (copyright-free) unless otherwise stated]
    2. Re:US? by Zantetsuken · · Score: 2

      I can't say much about it, but maybe they have visual confirmation of the satellites (US or not), possibly with US markings or corporate insignia on them?

    3. Re:US? by fractoid · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Cuz if I were going to put a spy satellite up, I'd totally put a flag on it so they knew whose spy satellite it was.

      --
      Rampant carbon sequestration destroyed the Dinosaurs' tropical paradise. I'm here to help repair the damage.
    4. Re:US? by Adambomb · · Score: 2, Funny

      Or pur a whole bunch of other countries flags on it. Confuse the hell out of the issue.

      --
      Ice Cream has no bones.
    5. Re:US? by mpe · · Score: 2, Funny

      Cuz if I were going to put a spy satellite up, I'd totally put a flag on it so they knew whose spy satellite it was.

      You might want to put a flag on it, just not your flag on it. If you really wanted to confuse people you'd use the flag of somewhere like Zimbabwe.

  3. Re:Oh no the French are mad by Fizzl · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Well, they do have nukes...

  4. Secret US Satellites? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    I personally know the CEO of a company who is in charge of the positioning and random stuff of several US satellites. They don't keep the existence of "secret satellites" a secret, they just don't tell anyone what the satellites do. They don't have to hide their very existence as long as no one knows what they are for... it would be pointless and a waste of secretiveness.

    1. Re:Secret US Satellites? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      I personally know the REAL head of the NSA. We lunch daily and discuss the latest sat feeds over fresh ground coffee and scones. No shit.

  5. let 'em by confused+one · · Score: 3, Insightful

    If they're really there, it's an empty threat. If the French can see them then so can anyone else with a telescope. It's likely everyone else of consequence already knows about them.

    1. Re:let 'em by Cassius+Corodes · · Score: 3, Informative

      Read the damn article - its detected them using a new radar system not with backyard telescopes.

      --
      Control is an illusion, order our comforting lie. From chaos, through chaos, into chaos we fly
    2. Re:let 'em by IWannaBeAnAC · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Go ahead. I dare you to find and track a surveilance satellite with a telescope. It isn't impossible, but think for a minute what it requires.

    3. Re:let 'em by confused+one · · Score: 3, Interesting

      An amateur will have a difficult time. It's hard enough to track the ISS, which is a pretty damn big and well known target. However, we're not talking about amateur's here... We're talking about military resources of larger governments which, for the most part, already have space launch capability, or are allied with someone for access to space launch capability. They'll already have hardware to track their own equipment. They'll already have radar to monitor their own airspace. It's not a stretch.

    4. Re:let 'em by Oswald · · Score: 2, Funny
      If they're really there, it's an empty threat.

      But if they're not there, it's...serious?

    5. Re:let 'em by Guppy06 · · Score: 2, Informative

      "If the French can see them then so can anyone else with a telescope."

      Those are very small satellites in a very, very big sky (it's not called "space" for no reason). If you're lucky, you might see it with the naked eye go by near sunrise or sunset, so that it catches sunlight against the dark sky, but otherwise you'd have to use magnification, which means limiting your field of view dramatically to look for an object that is in your stretch of sky for less than a minute while it passes through your field of view (which happens maybe once or twice a day as the earth rotates under the satellite's polar orbit, and not always at night).

      Or you'd need a sophisticated radar system capable of bouncing signals off of objects in low orbit, the kind of system only a first-world national government could afford.

      It's easier to find earth-threatening asteroids than it is to catch a satellite you don't already know about.

    6. Re:let 'em by BillyBlaze · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Well, you can count on luck if you're constantly vigilant. Point a bunch of digital cameras at the sky, taking long-exposure images during dusk and dawn. Enough cameras to cover the horizon. Control them with a computer. Then you just need an automated system to pick out streaks with the right curvature, compute their orbits, and correlate them against your database of known targets. If you find one you haven't seen before, you can probably extract enough information to find it on its next pass and take more precise measurements. Leave this system on for a few months and you're bound to find quite a few interesting objects. I'd say it would take a few grad students a few months, and say $15000 in equipment, to set this up.

    7. Re:let 'em by E++99 · · Score: 5, Informative

      Amateur satellite trackers have been the bane of US secret satellite projects for quite a while, actually. You don't necessarily even need a telescope to do it, you just need to live somewhere without too much light pollution. (Which is probably why a lot of the notable amateurs tend to be from Canada or Australia.) Of course what the amateurs publish probably doesn't come close to the precise ephemeris data that the French are gathering, and likewise doesn't include radio frequencies.

    8. Re:let 'em by jdigriz · · Score: 2, Informative

      These guys do it all the time. http://www.satobs.org/ It requires a telescope... a knowledge of mathematics and orbital mechanics or a computer built after 1992 or so and an open source sat tracking package, and of course copious free time and lots of coffee.

    9. Re:let 'em by Guppy06 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "taking long-exposure images during dusk and dawn."

      You need to know when the streak was made, preferably to the nearest second (at least). From the ground, LEO satellites move through the sky faster than a passenger jet at cruising altitudes (especially the "interesting" satellites in polar orbits). You'd also have to know in what direction it moved.

      "Enough cameras to cover the horizon."

      An object reflecting sunlight while overhead need not still be catching sunlight near the horizon. On top of that, at the horizon you have more light pollution obscuring the faint light and more atmosphere to absorb it and/or throw off your orbital calculations.

      "and correlate them against your database of known targets."

      Said databases need to be continually updated due to atmospheric drag on the satellites and the attitude adjustments needed to correct it. Which brings me to another point: you need to catch two or three passes to really get a fix on an object's orbit. These subsequent passes won't all happen at night (let alone near dusk or dawn), and not all nights are cloudless.

      It doesn't matter how good your math skills are, you can't get a fix on them without decent data collection, and you can't get decent data without a second-by-second picture of most (if not all) of the visible sky.

    10. Re:let 'em by ozmanjusri · · Score: 2, Funny
      and of course copious free time and lots of coffee.

      So what you're saying is that we will have to ban coffee or let the terrorists win?

      --
      "I've got more toys than Teruhisa Kitahara."
    11. Re:let 'em by Guppy06 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      You'd still need far more cameras than you have alloted (because you'd need far more of the sky covered than just the horizon), with a high enough resolution and aperture for astronomical photography (in essence, each camera would need a telescope), at a suitably remote location, with suitable weather. Then you'd have to make sure that you're able to differentiate visible motion as "satellite" and not "meteor," "airplane" or "lightning bug" (realistically, you'd have to involve humans in this step). And then you'd have to go through to eliminate known satellites from your observations. Finally, you'd need to keep the whole operation running over at least a number of months (if not years) before you'd be able to say with reasonable certainty that the particular streak of light you saw three weeks ago will be visible again ten days from now.

      This is, literally, rocket science.

    12. Re:let 'em by TFloore · · Score: 2, Insightful

      We're talking about military resources of larger governments

      Very true. But even larger governments do not have unlimited military resources.

      If you make them spend those resources finding something you didn't tell them for free, they can't use those resources for some other purpose.

      Always make it more expensive for the other guy. Don't give them something for free needlessly.

      --
      This is my sig. There are many like it but this one is... Oops. Frank, I've got your sig again! Where's mine?
  6. oh god... by doubtless · · Score: 4, Funny

    freedom fries all over again?

    --
    geek page at KY speaks
    1. Re:oh god... by E++99 · · Score: 2

      Naw, France is our friend now, since the election. This is just good old-fashioned negotiations. Soon there will be a dozen more satellites we deny the existence of.

  7. ground control to major tom by User+956 · · Score: 5, Funny

    Therefore it seems that the French have found secret US satellites.

    If they're referring to the moon, that's been ours for a while (finders keepers), and it's not exactly a secret. unless you're referring to man-made satellites only?

    --
    The theory of relativity doesn't work right in Arkansas.
  8. 'Lost' satellites by flyingfsck · · Score: 2, Funny

    Numerous communications satellites have been lost over the years. Others may be a secret alien monitoring network...

    --
    Excuse me, but please get off my Pennisetum Clandestinum, eh!
    1. Re:'Lost' satellites by Guppy06 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "Numerous communications satellites have been lost over the years."

      They tend to fall out of orbit and burn up in re-entry and/or are placed in geosynchronous orbit, not the globe-spanning polar LEO's favored by the spook community.

      Also, for the kind of money involved in launching, using and maintaining one, you do not lose one casually.

      "Others may be a secret alien monitoring network..."

      "What, haven't the hairless apes wiped themselves out yet?" Alien monitoring requires that we actually be, y'know, interesting and worth monitoring. Feels too much like a descendant of the ol' Ptolemaic geocentricism.

  9. Re:Oh no the French are mad by Conspicuous+Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Wow, and the French though that your fat American fingers would never be able to crank out predictable trolls about their military with such speed :-P Clearly they underestimated you. Kudos.

  10. Re:This is easily winnable for the USA by martijnd · · Score: 4, Funny

    After spending the last 20 odd year's playing Metal of Honor ; and thus being suitably "trained"
    the American infantry will drop into Normandy, make a big mess of the coast and head for Berlin at high speed; reaching the operational "goal" in less than 24 hours as they can just take the train instead of grunting it out by foot.

    The French will barely notice ; but the Germans will wonder why Checkpoint Charlie was rebuild overnight.Berlin disco's will put on a "retro" 40's theme.

    The European Union will then spend the next six months debating who will pay for the environmental damage done to the French coast and whether or not the shrimp industry qualifies for subsidies.

  11. a little distraction? by Quadraginta · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Surely the wise course of action would be to deny the existence of all secret US satellites plus a smattering of somebody elses's satellites, too. Just to stir up the entropy pool a bit.

    1. Re:a little distraction? by JoelKatz · · Score: 2, Informative

      "Surely the wise course of action would be to deny the existence of all secret US satellites plus a smattering of somebody elses's satellites, too. Just to stir up the entropy pool a bit."

      We don't actively deny anything. We simply say, "Here's a list of all satellites known to us. If it's not on the list, as far as we know, it doesn't exist." I presume we leave off that list both our own secret satellites and at least some other country's secret satellites. I'm just puzzled why we don't extend the French the same courtesy. Last I heard, they were our allies.

    2. Re:a little distraction? by dwye · · Score: 2, Informative

      > Last I heard, they were our allies.

      Not since the XYZ Affair, in Washington's administration, except for about 18 months after we entered WWI, and a brief period after WWII. We were belligerents not officially at war during the period after the Louisiana Purchase (presumably due to problems related to France's OTHER war of that period), nonbelligerent enemies around the Civil War (see Emperor Maximillian), nonbelligerents with France (ie, Vichy) during WWII while working with their worst enemies, the Free French. DeGaulle's republic ended any alliance fairly soon after coming to power, if the Suez Affair didn't do so, before that.

      This doesn't mean that we don't work with them on lots of matters, or that we are secretly enemies. It is just that there is no particular trust either way. They are not Poland, let alone the UK or Canada (where, if we spy on them, it is only so that we can give them the results where they are not allowed to spy on their own home territories, as they do for us). They are far more like Pakistan, where we work with part of the government, and nonobviously mention that other parts of their government (ISI, frex) are working more with our enemies than with us.

      Thus, in this case, the French want all their secret satellites off our public registry, so are behaving like a Russian hacker who hits a website first, then confesses to the sysop and then offers his services. Presumably, there were originally high-level calls, and when we declined to delist (possibly just because we thought it trying to unring a bell, now) they decided to up the ante.

  12. Re:Oh no the French are mad by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If you can't even win in Iraq,
    You wouldn't win over France :-)

  13. Re:Tor like oatmeals! by BronsCon · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Eventually, this troll will be worthy of an Insightful moderation. That will be the day I leave slashdot.

    --
    APK quotes people (including myself) without context and should not be trusted. Just thought you should know.
  14. But you don't get it, they "don't" exist! by drgonzo59 · · Score: 5, Interesting
    Now, the US claims that if it doesn't appear in the ephemeris data, then it doesn't exist


    So shooting a laser beam to blind something non-existent shouldn't be a problem. If you can knock this non-existent "thing" from the sky even better, now it would "doubly" not exist!

    1. Re:But you don't get it, they "don't" exist! by arivanov · · Score: 2, Funny

      As the French would say: "Touche, Monsieur".

      --
      Baker's Law: Misery no longer loves company. Nowadays it insists on it
      http://www.sigsegv.cx/
    2. Re:But you don't get it, they "don't" exist! by fractoid · · Score: 2, Insightful

      ...unless it turns out that it's actually NOT a US spy satellite, and in fact belongs to China. At which point your career prospects become veeery dubious.

      --
      Rampant carbon sequestration destroyed the Dinosaurs' tropical paradise. I'm here to help repair the damage.
    3. Re:But you don't get it, they "don't" exist! by commodoresloat · · Score: 2, Insightful

      ...unless it turns out that it's actually NOT a US spy satellite, and in fact belongs to China. At which point your career prospects become veeery dubious. Only if you're Chinese.
    4. Re:But you don't get it, they "don't" exist! by jsiren · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Newsflash:


      Nothing happened in space today as a non-existent satellite collided with another non-existent satellite. The respective non-owners of the non-satellites both deny responsibility, stating that on specific inquiry, the respective orbits of both non-satellites were reported to be free for use by a non-existent object.


      Details may or may not be available at 11.

      --
      Usage: km/h for speed (kilometers per hour); kph for very slow impulses (kilopond hours).
    5. Re:But you don't get it, they "don't" exist! by Midnight+Thunder · · Score: 2, Funny

      There is a joke that I once heard before about a US stealth plane flying over France, along these lines:

      The French detect a spy plane flying over their territory and on suspecting that it belongs to the US contact them:
      French: We have an unidentified plane flying over our territory and believe it is yours
      USA: I don't think so
      French: Are you sure?
      USA: Yes
      French: So you won't mind if we shoot it down
      USA: Uh um, you had better hold off on that one

      Apparently the French Thompson radar are meant to be that good. Not being a military expert I don't really know.

      --
      Jumpstart the tartan drive.
  15. Dupe? by WindBourne · · Score: 2, Informative

    First, this was from June, and second, I recall seeing this out here earlier.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  16. Re:For Sale -- Cheap! by ghoul · · Score: 4, Insightful

    One New republic. Twice invaded and saved by France. For sale to the highest bidding oil company

    --
    **Life is too short to be serious**
  17. Re:For Sale -- Cheap! by GuruBuckaroo · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Jesus Christ - no wonder people hate Americans. Thanks for that, people - I'm embarrassed to say where I'm from these days. Bunch of jingoist jerks.

    --
    Poor means hoping the toothache goes away.
  18. Now they just have to duplicate GEODSS by Animats · · Score: 4, Informative

    The US has had the Ground Based-Electro-Optical Deep Space Surveillance system since the early 1980s. GEODSS is an automated sky search telescope system. Multiple sites with multiple 40-inch telescopes search the sky automatically every night, looking for anything that isn't in the catalogues. GEODSS will even detect dark objects that occult stars. Everybody has automated astronomy now, but it started with GEODSS, around 1980.

    GEODSS has an unusual feature for a telescope - illumination. The system can use one of the telescopes at a site to aim a laser light source, while the other telescope looks at the target with the imager. This allows a good look at low-orbit satellites.

    The original test installation for GEODSS, at White Sands, NM, is now used by MIT to look for near-Earth objects. They've found 1622 so far. It wouldn't hurt to have more systems working on that problem. A French version of GEODSS would be a win for everyone.

    1. Re:Now they just have to duplicate GEODSS by Craig+Milo+Rogers · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The difference is... the French (and Germans, see the SPACE.com article referenced in the original Slashdot posting) used a radar system, not an optical one, to detect the publicly uncatalogued satellites. Presumably it can detect satellites that aren't visible (except for occultations) to the average optical system ("black ops", in a very literal sense).

      The French are serious about space operations, both commercially and militarily. Arianespace, a French company (in essence) launching from French territory in South America, is the world's leading provider of geostationary transfer orbit launch services. Presumably, they feel as concerned as any other major space operator about the space junk problem, as exacerbated by the Chinese anti-satellite demonstration last January, and are investing in a program to ensure that they can track space junk independently of the USA.
      Or, they may simply be interested in keeping track of all in-orbit assets as part of their defense posture.

      Russia also operates optical and radar-based satellite-tracking systems. One can speculate that they already know about secret U.S. satellites, but are unlikely to reveal such knowledge in a public forum. China is also believed to have optical and radar satellite tracking systems in place (per a recent US Defense Dept. report).

      --
      Craig Milo Rogers
  19. Re:This is easily winnable for the USA by dafragsta · · Score: 2, Funny

    Very easily winnable. The Iraqis aren't wearing berets.

  20. The actual situation is rather more complicated. by physicsphairy · · Score: 4, Interesting
    I believe it's a bit more involved than that.

    First consideration: It is a fairly involved and expensive process to catalogue these objects. Maybe some crazy EE guy could mess with them with a ground based laser for an affordable $20k or whatever (I honestly don't know the feasibility of that) but having to go back and classify near-earth space objects on top of that would probably push it being the range of feasability for any small scale endeavor.

    And, another *big part* of defense/offense is simply making it more expensive to engage youl. This is the definition of why defense is always more difficult than offense--the defender has to defend every avenue of attack, the aggressor need only choose the most favorable to themselves. Sure, it might be possible for any modern nation to invest a few billion to making the identifications, and that might nullify the advantage you would have otherwise, but getting them to spend the money is itself an advantage. Even countries that starve their citizens to pay for missiles (ala, north korea) only have limited budgets. The thinner you can spread them, the better off *you* are.

    Second consideration: In as much as identifying satellites is a statistical process, i.e., "We've looked at 70% of the objects in the sky, and have identified +/- 20% of those which are satellites " then sharing data is always beneficient in giving you more certain results. This is relevant not only because it means you get more satellites, but especially because the satellites you do get are more defintie to be representative of the whole. If you were going to organize some strategic strike against America's defense satellites, you'd want to get all of them. Otherwise you might waste a bunch of money to get the tactical advantage of taking out the satellites and America will just be like "Whoops, they got some of our satellites, time to change to the backups. Cool, our network is fully functional again. Let's go nuke whoever did that."

    Third consideration: I don't think the location of all the 'public' satellites are disclosed. The French are able to identify which are secret satellites because we told them the ones that weren't. Anyone who didn't know that could certainly identify satellite objects in the sky, but they would be unable to distinguish between commercial GPS satellites and secret military missile-commanding GPS satellites.

    Now, I don't really know how much any of those come into effect on their own, but my point is that just because it is possible for someone else to gain knowledge without your disclosing it does not mean that it doesn't make a difference whether you simply disclose it or make them work to figure it out.

  21. Easy to replicate by squidinkcalligraphy · · Score: 4, Informative

    If I recall correctly, the US didn't know where or when Pakistan (or was it India?) was about to detonate its first test nuke because the satellites didn't see the materials being moved in or out of the expected sites. They didn't see it because the Pakistanis (or Indians) were keeping track of satellites and not moving anything when there were unknown ones overhead. It's quite easy to do; it just requires a lot of manpower (which there is plenty of in the subcontinent)

    vik

    --
    "I think it would be a good idea" Gandhi, on Western Civilisation
    1. Re:Easy to replicate by Guppy06 · · Score: 4, Informative

      "They didn't see it because the Pakistanis (or Indians) were keeping track of satellites and not moving anything when there were unknown ones overhead."

      It's not about knowing where the satellites are so much as understanding that, altogether, all the spy satellites will only be able to photograph your little corner of the world for a total of maybe 1 minute out of 1440. Make sure that the trucks from Habib's Fissionable Material Shipping Service are always parked in the same place, in the same position after you're done with them and the odds are in your favor that Langley won't see any difference between two consecutive satellite passes. The rest is basic camouflage techniques that had been used to counter reconnaissance aircraft long before Sputnik.

      Realistically, the odds are in your favor if you want to do something small that you don't want satellites to catch and you think a little about what you're doing. They satellites are mostly there to catch gross, macro changes in another country's borders ("Gee, they just moved this tank brigade to their border and a surface fleet has left port!"), but the hopes of catching a single, solitary nuclear device on the move is a crapshot at best. Of course, it may not be an acceptable risk when the stakes involved are you clandestinely testing your first nuclear device, and Langley surely hopes that the fear of "We might see you do it!" gives them second thoughts, but unless they have the Hubble parked at geostationary above your sorry ass, "we have teh sattelitez!" is a bogeyman at best

    2. Re:Easy to replicate by squidinkcalligraphy · · Score: 2, Informative

      What you say is true. But in the case of Pakistan, they (the US & co) were looking for that single solitary nuclear device, as a test had been expected (due to other intelligence and India's recent tests). So I guess my point is that they did it invisibly despite being looked at the whole time.

      --
      "I think it would be a good idea" Gandhi, on Western Civilisation
    3. Re:Easy to replicate by Guppy06 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "So I guess my point is that they did it invisibly despite being looked at the whole time."

      And my point is that it wasn't "the whole time." An individual satellite only has scant seconds to photograph an area on a pass and won't be able to do it again for at least a day (probably longer). Multiple satellites give you a few more handfuls of seconds to observe during the course of any given day, but the odds are strongly in favor that no satellite will be making a pass at the random time you decide to move the bomb.

      This isn't a Hollywood movie, satellites don't have hang time. Satellite reconnaissance is done by comparing two still photographs and looking for differences. Unless you actually have a satellite passing by as they move the bomb (you'd have a better chance of winning the lottery), all the NRO has to go on is "The A-Bombs R Us truck is parked in a different spot today than it was last Tuesday, it probably went somewhere. I wonder if they moved the bomb..." Park said truck in exactly the same place after you move the bomb, and there's no reason to suspect anything from the two photos.

    4. Re:Easy to replicate by Guppy06 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "But you're not looking for a solitary nuke. You've looking for the huge effort that goes into manufacturing and testing the thing. Things like materiel going into suspected labs and factories, or the local army cordoning off the test site. That's a lot harder to hide."

      In the specific examples of the surprise tests of India and Pakistan in 1998, none of that was hidden. India set off its first nuclear device in the 1970's and Pakistan finished building the required infrastructure in the 1980's. India already had a testing range set aside for its first blast and Pakistan picked and cordoned off a testing site soon afterwards. The only thing left to both countries was actually building and testing the bombs. The United States used diplomatic pressure to dissuade both countries from doing just that, and satellites successfully caught a pending test in India in 1995, which the US successfully pressured them into stopping.

      All the Indians did different in 1998 was use more camouflage, do most of their work at night, and make sure all the earth-moving equipment was back where it belonged come daylight.

      If you're looking for "Country X has the infrastructure to build Teh Bomb!" as you'd want to find out with Iran and DPRK, then the satellites are impossible to hide from, but the only question the world was still asking in 1998 for both countries was "When are they going to test Teh Bomb?" and, due to careful planning, satellites weren't very helpful, and the surveilled party didn't need knowledge of satellites trajectories to do it.

  22. Re:This is easily winnable for the USA by Wavicle · · Score: 4, Funny

    So they will be airlifted by Ospreys half of which will crash killing half the invasion force.

    Wow. You really think half of the Ospreys won't crash?

    --
    Education is a better safeguard of liberty than a standing army.
    Edward Everett (1794 - 1865)
  23. I don't think so by Quadraginta · · Score: 5, Informative

    There's a number of useful things you can know about a satellite, just knowing it's orbit.

    * If it's geostationary, it's designed to look at or communicate with whatever is right underneath it. It's also unlikely to be a photorecon satellite, because your km-per-pixel sucks from 36,000 km away.

    * If it's in a polar orbit, it's probably designed to look at big swathes of the Earth as the latter rotates under it. Polar orbits are too expensive otherwise.

    * If it's in a low orbit with just enough inclination to get up to your latitude -- why, that sounds like it might be a photorecon satellite designed with you in mind...

    * In which case, if you know when it's over you, and when it's not, then you have a rough idea of when you're in the crosshairs. That can be handy.

    I don't necessarily disagree that the main way you keep your capabilities secret is to keep what the satellites do secret. But it probably helps, at least a little bit, to keep the existence and orbit of the thing secret, too.

    1. Re:I don't think so by JordanL · · Score: 3, Funny

      Crap, you mean Tom Clancy didn't just make that shit up?

    2. Re:I don't think so by Algorithmnast · · Score: 2, Funny

      * In which case, if you know when it's over you, and when it's not, then you have a rough idea of when you're in the crosshairs. That can be handy. Yep - especially if I want to moon the satellite.
  24. Re:The actual situation is rather more complicated by confused+one · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I think you miss the point of my extremely short and to the point post... If they want to publish "We have found satellites in orbits x, y, and z..." then, so what. It's not affecting our tactics (much). We can continue to deny they exist, if that's our plan. They can continue to expend money and effort trying to identify them.

    I'm not concerned about amateur efforts to identify the satellites, they're irrelevant.

    Any country of consequence, who would be capable of affecting our satellites in orbit, is likely to be doing mapping of their sky; and, as a result will have some statistics on what's there. The French publishing the additional data doesn't matter in that it remains true that no one knows to whom the satellites belong and what their capabilities are. Granted, the extra data points might be useful to another country; but, as I've said, I'm certain they are already mapping what's in their sky anyway.

  25. Re:For Sale -- Cheap! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    People, stop already with the French surrender dumbness. We haven't fought a 'fair' war since the Civil War, and that we fought against ourselves. Even in WWi and WWII we waited until others had worn out the enemy...
    That's quite inaccurate, Between Japan's fleet being damn near the biggest on Earth, a willingness to sacrifice millions for victory and the Germans crushing nearly everything that opposed them I don't think we did too bad. we destroyed a lot of Japan's fleet in midway and held out quite outnumbered on several pacific islands as well as saving France's ass AGAIN although I'll give France this: they didn't completely surrender, there was a resistance and they did try to prevent the invasion with the maginot line [forgot about Belgium though] but aside from that france's history is full of other defeats that we need not even mention the world wars
  26. Spy vs Spy by Nymz · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Surely the wise course of action would be to deny the existence of all secret US satellites plus a smattering of somebody elses's satellites, too.
    If the USA knew about a secret satellite of a hostile country, it would be a poor decision to let them know, that you know. It would be equally unlikey to expect the other country to then respond in kind and let the USA know, that they know, that the USA knows, that they themselves know, about the secret stealth satellite.
    1. Re:Spy vs Spy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      Jim Hacker: It's a bluff. I probably wouldn't use it.
      Sir Humphrey: Yes, but they don't know that you probably wouldn't.
      Jim Hacker: They probably do.
      Sir Humphrey: Yes, they probably know that you probably wouldn't. But they can't certainly know.
      Jim Hacker: They probably certainly know that I probably wouldn't.
      Sir Humphrey: Yes, but even though they probably certainly know that you probably wouldn't, they don't certainly know that, although you probably wouldn't, there is no probability that you certainly would.

    2. Re:Spy vs Spy by Dhalka226 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      We did, and it was. The difference is that the missiles could hurt us, even if the Russians had no idea that we knew about them. If we made an attempt to attack them, there was a great chance we would miss some that may well then be launched. Similarly, they might see us coming to attack the missiles and launch. The only way to resolve that safely for the US was to get the missiles out, and we accomplished that with worldwide political pressure (and some backroom deals).

      The only way a spy satellite hurts you is if it sees something it isn't supposed to. If we know where it is and can track it, we can ensure that it never does. We may even be able to ensure that it sees the opposite of what we're actually doing if we do want to get up to something. It may even help us directly; if the Chinese think they have a secret satellite to help get the drop on us and it turns out they don't, that is our advantage.

      Telling them not only removes that advantage, it puts us at a disadvantage. Almost certainly, they would move the satellite and we would have to locate it again. The game loops again and again. In that sense it's the same as breaking an enemy's cipher; you don't want them to know because you want them to use a code you can read instead of developing a code you can't.

  27. uh hem... by djupedal · · Score: 5, Funny

    "Pardon Moi, but does your secret satellite fire lasers?"

    "No, it certainly does not."

    "Oh...good. Then I'll just be orbiting this small camera platform over here next to it and...."ZZZzzzZZzzZzzzzzzZZZZZZZzzaaaaaaappppppppppppPPPPPPPP!!!!!!

    "I thought you said your secret satellite doesn't fire lasers!!??"

    "That's not my secret satellite..."

  28. Re:For Sale -- Cheap! by glwtta · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I'd hate to know how you'd feel if you were French and actually had to live with the knowledge that not only did your country surrender to Germany without a fight...

    At least I could seek comfort in the knowledge that the US, in all its world-dominating glory, wouldn't even exist if it wasn't for my country. (plus, can you really expect France to take care of the Germans every time?)

    BTW, if your country was invaded, you would be cowering behind those "jingoist jerks", you hypocrite.

    Somehow I reeally doubt it, for some crazy reason the "jingoist jerks" are never the first ones to line up to grab a rifle and defend the country. Go figure.

    Point is, constantly bragging about something that other people did 50 years ago gets tiresome pretty quickly (besides, I'm Russian, so let's not get into the whole "Who won WWII" thing :) ).

    --
    sic transit gloria mundi
  29. Re:For Sale -- Cheap! by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The gung-ho type we don't mind, they are consistent and wear their beliefs on their sleeve. They are honest and straightforward.

    HAHAHAHAHA!

    The current crop of jingoists are a bunch of cowards who think war is fine and dandy, as long as it's other people doing the dying. Damn near every top pro-war politician and commentator who was of age to serve during Vietnam found some way to stay out of uniform, and their kids aren't in any hurry to sign up for Iraq either. Oh, how "honest and straightforward" of them!

    It's this new, smug, "I'm ashamed of my country" kind of American that I cannot stand

    When your country does something wrong -- and when your country is a democracy, in which the leaders are theoretically responsible to the people -- it is good and right to be ashamed. Being ashamed isn't enough, of course; you should also do something to change it. Which, in the civilized world, includes bitching loudly and publicly. The idea that we should keep our mouths shut except to parrot platitudes of support for our Glorious Leaders is repulsive.

    I'd hate to know how you'd feel if you were French and actually had to live with the knowledge that not only did your country surrender to Germany without a fight

    If you really think France surrendered "without a fight" I'd recommend reading some more history. They were beaten, on the battlefield, by an army which could easily have done the same thing to any other country -- yes, including both the US and Australia -- that had the misfortune to be right next door to Germany at the time. And, in fact, did. The Wehrmacht in its heyday was unstoppable, and it took the Allies years (and a whole hell of a lot of lives) to swamp it in a war of attrition.

    BTW, if your country was invaded, you would be cowering behind those "jingoist jerks", you hypocrite.

    I served for ten years (two years reserve, eight years active duty, including Desert Storm) and I'm pretty sure that even as a fat old guy with a bum leg, I could still step up and defend US soil if I had to. The "rah rah USA" crowd would be screaming, crying, and pissing their pants.

    --
    The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
  30. Re:Oh no the French are mad by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative
  31. Re:The actual situation is rather more complicated by Kristoph · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I think you are missing the point entirely. No one is interested in this information so they can 'affect' the hardware. The crux of the issue is that if the French start publishing live orbital telemetry on spy satellites then it will be damn easy for any interested party to 'hide' as the satellite passes over.

    Moreover, changes in the telemetry will tell the 'bad guys' when the US is interested in something and hence they will have a better sense if their activities have aroused US suspicion.

    I'd wager that even the Taliban could muster the internet access and math skills to figure this out given up to date telemetry.

    ]{

  32. In their defense.... by Darth · · Score: 5, Funny

    Considering recent history, they probably suspect the worst case scenario for exposing a U.S. spy satellite is a pardon.

    --
    Darth --
    Nil Mortifi, Sine Lucre
  33. Re:For Sale -- Cheap! by flyingsquid · · Score: 5, Interesting
    American that I cannot stand (I am Australian). Your country dominates the world (just as italy, england, greece, persia, france etc etc etc all did in their day) and you are ashamed?

    I'm not ashamed of my country having a lot of power. And I'm not ashamed of my country using it- if you have power, you've got a responsibility to use it. With great power comes great responsibility, as Stan Lee said. I say, if a carefully planned, well thought out military intervention is the best option (not that war is ever a great option, but sometimes it is better than not going to war) then, well, bombs away.

    What I'm deeply ashamed of is the shitty job we've done in using it. Bullying our allies, running secret prisons, detentions without trial, torturing people to death, losing much of the headway we made in Afghanistan, and making Iraq into a place so terrifyingly bloody that people actually long for the days when it was merely ruled by a psychopathic dictator... the past few years have been shameful. Anyone who could look at what we've done in the past few years and feel any sort of pride is either deeply in denial or a sociopath. I have no problem with America using its power to advance its own interests and improve the world, but we haven't been doing either.

  34. How many frenchmen does it take to defend paris? by xQx · · Score: 2, Funny

    I dunno... None have ever tried.

    [Not a Troll, just a man with cheap jokes]

  35. Did you RTF? by SerpentMage · · Score: 2, Informative

    The problem is that the US regularly writes about the French secret satellites, and the French want that to stop.

    Thus the French are saying, "if you don't keep ours secret, then we will not keep yours secret." A sort of quid pro quo negotiation tactic.

    --

    "You can't make a race horse of a pig"
    "No," said Samuel, "but you can make very fast pig"
    1. Re:Did you RTF? by JoelKatz · · Score: 2, Interesting

      What puzzles me is why we don't do this. I can think of several good reasons why we would. One is the quid pro quo. Another is that if we leave French secret satellites off the list, then if someone spots a satellite not on the list, they won't know whether it's U.S. or French. The same is true ephemerides are made public by amateur spotters. If people don't know whose satellites it is, they'll have to hide from all the satellites, increasing the chances they'll miss hiding from U.S. satellites. (In the case of spy satellites.)

    2. Re:Did you RTF? by SerpentMage · · Score: 2, Insightful

      > Another is that if we leave French secret satellites off the list, then if someone spots a satellite not on the list, they won't know whether it's U.S. or French.

      Nice strategy....

      --

      "You can't make a race horse of a pig"
      "No," said Samuel, "but you can make very fast pig"
  36. Re:For Sale -- Cheap! by SerpentMage · · Score: 2

    Dude I wish I had mod points...

    Your attitude is what brought America into WW2. America did not go gungho into WW2. It took America a LONG time... But when it did, it did with a mission and attitude! That is why people keep saying, "oh in WW2 we did such and such..."

    --

    "You can't make a race horse of a pig"
    "No," said Samuel, "but you can make very fast pig"
  37. Re:How many frenchmen does it take to defend paris by bmo · · Score: 4, Funny

    I'll see your cheap joke and raise you one:

    Why do the French plant trees beside the road?

    So the Germans can march in the shade. :-D

    --
    BMO

    karma to burn baaaybe, karma to burn...

  38. Re:How many frenchmen does it take to defend paris by caridon20 · · Score: 2, Informative
    --
    You dont have to be an analretentive nitpicker to be a tester.... But it helps :)
  39. Re:For Sale -- Cheap! by aevan · · Score: 2, Informative

    Excepting the fact that France fought on their own soil, while the Pacific Theater was, for the most part a war in neutral territory. I don't recall American cities invaded, their resources taken, nor their industry shelled. The European Theater was an entirely different scenario.

    One attack on Pearl Harbour, some abortive amusement in the Aleutians, and some silliness involving balloons was all the USA suffered at home.

    Honestly, Europe would have defeated Germany had the US not got involved at all, attrition and the turning points in Russia and over Britain assured that pretty much. The only difference would been how much of Europe spoke Russian.

  40. Re:For Sale -- Cheap! by ghoul · · Score: 2, Informative

    The US war in the Pacific was not a moral war. It was totally provoked by the US. If not what were US Air force and Army pilots doing flying Chinese air force planes and bombing Japanese bases long before Pearl Harbor and why did the US cut off oil supplies to Japan in time of war. Japan had a commercial agreement with the US but the US stopped selling them oil when they needed it most - when they were at war with China. Not only did they stop selling oil they put a blockade preventing oil supplies from Indonesia to come through to Japan. How would US react if Iran blocked the straits of Hormuz during the start of the Gulf war campaign? It would be considered an act of war. The pacific war was basically saying - its ok for white men to have colonies but not ok for yellow men to have colonies.

    --
    **Life is too short to be serious**
  41. Re:For Sale -- Cheap! by semiotec · · Score: 2, Insightful

    as an Australian, I am totally ashamed that you are also an Australian.

    you talk about ANZUS, our top politicians (Howard and Downer) don't even have a clear idea of what our obligations are towards that treaty. But then, that was probably just Downer being Downer.

    I believe when the GP said "bullying allies" he didn't mean bullying every single person in the allied country. You being a single case doesn't count, and you being safely in some backwater country town probably precludes you from facing that anyway.

    Did you see the news where Australia spent some $240 million on this little conference in Sydney, and Bush wasn't even sure what country he was in and which conference he was attending? That's how much he cares about his best international ally.

    If you have ever spent just a little time outside of Australia, you will know that Howard has pretty much used up all of the goodwill non-US foreigners used to have towards Australians. Now, Australians are treated as if we are second-class US citizens.

  42. Really handy by k31bang · · Score: 2, Funny

    * In which case, if you know when it's over you, and when it's not, then you have a rough idea of when you're in the crosshairs. That can be handy.

    Give the camera a good mooning?
    --
    -+-=-+-=-+-=-+-=-+-=-+ *** http://www.mountainfort.com *** +-=-+-=-+-=-+-=-+-=-+-
  43. if they don't exist... by Tastecicles · · Score: 2, Funny

    then the US surely won't mind a few missile tests in the general direction of those holes in the sky?

    --
    Operation Guillotine is in effect.
  44. Re:This is easily winnable for the USA by Fred_A · · Score: 2, Interesting

    So they will be airlifted by Ospreys half of which will crash killing half the invasion force.

    Wow. You really think half of the Ospreys won't crash? I hear they have a highway mode built into half of them by now so half seems about right.
    --

    May contain traces of nut.
    Made from the freshest electrons.
  45. Some pics and (French) text about Graves... by boule75 · · Score: 4, Informative
    ... and even some videos can be found here :
    http://www.onera.fr/photos/instexp/graves.php
    http://www.onera.fr/dprs/graves/index.php

    It also appears that a big, big part of the systems is invisible: a real time calculator, the size of which is unknown. But it may guzzle some Watts in my opinion....

    As for the political aspects of the affair, well... It is certainly very unelegant from the US space authorities to publicize European spy satellites trajectories, and we cannot get accustomed to the sheer amount of unelegance that has flown eastward to Britanny since 2003.

    Next, I doubt amateurs could do what Graves does, especially since trajectories can change, thanks to usefull thrusters. Graves is apparently a real time system...
    And by the way, would it detect incomming balistic missiles too? That may be useful for the likes of Aster.

    We French are generally too ambitious when it comes to weapon systems (not enough money for so many lethal ideas...), but we provide some amusing toys, indeed. I always wondered what were the real possibilities of this ship (http://www.netmarine.net/bat/divers/monge/photos.htm), for instance...

    Last but not least: thanks to all Americans that are now bashing French haters, we have heard enough, your support is appreciated. I hope Sarkozy will not be the fool he pretends to be. :-)

    --
    I am not Remy Mouton, unfortunately: http://remy.mouton.free.fr/art/
    1. Re:Some pics and (French) text about Graves... by boule75 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Well. I especially hope he will not follow any advice to blow up Syria or Iran...

      As for the Rainbow warrior "adventure" (Mitterand): this was most unfortunate. Hasty operation, bad execution, no luck and a dead photograph when the idea was to avoid human casualties...

      On his side, Chirac has not really sent French troops in an Ivoirian "adventure": in financial terms, it very much looks like an expensive operation, but noting compared to Iraq... Politically, time will tell what will result from that mission. I am not that pessimistic about it, the latest news are rather encouraging.
      We can only guess what would have occured had Laurent Gbagbo and his wife continued their war with the northern part of the country (and possibly with their northern neighboors too): slaughters? Continued civil war? I am not so sure.
      The clashes have been very limitted, the war has stopped for now, let us hope his country will heal and that real elections will take place soon. French (and UN) troops have spent already enough time there. Time for a break, a reconciliation, a renewed prosperity and some genuine democracy...
      French losses have been very limited: the operationnal capacities have proven adequate for the task, even if their were lacks : no video before the Hotel Ivoire, faulty propaganda tools compared to the astonishing amount of lies propagated by the Ivoirian press of all sort are two. Non lethal weapon were used but were in short supply at the Ivoire, especially when the Legionnaires (with light tanks!) faced a hostile crowd of several thousands people: there were casulties that day.

      Anyway...

      As for Sarkozy: only God knows what his intentions are. And even He may be puzzled sometimes. But he is the Decider, the Renewer, a competent guy, full of energy wit, will, and so on. I nearly hate him and I strongly believe he will ruin us by sheer incompetence and affairism.

      Regards.

      --
      I am not Remy Mouton, unfortunately: http://remy.mouton.free.fr/art/
  46. Seti@Home by eulernet · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Seti@Home, which is supposed to help finding extra-terrestrial life, is typically a project able to map the satellites. I wonder if they publish their discoveries ?

  47. Re:For Sale -- Cheap! by o'reor · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I'd hate to know how you'd feel if you were French and actually had to live with the knowledge that not only did your country surrender to Germany without a fight
    If you really think France surrendered "without a fight" I'd recommend reading some more history.
    Weeeeell, if the grand-parent were French I'm sure his ancestors who were among the 90,000 casualties or the 270,000 wounded would be glad to know that they died without a fight. Not to mention those 45,000-some dead or MIA Germans who probably died of avian flu about the same time, since nobody shot at them, eh ?
    --
    In Soviet Russia, our new overlords are belong to all your base.
  48. Re:The French Aren't Threatening Anyone by Kartoffel · · Score: 2, Funny

    "I fart in your general direction!"

  49. Re:This is easily winnable for the USA by jollyreaper · · Score: 4, Funny

    So they will be airlifted by Ospreys half of which will crash killing half the invasion force. Wow. You really think half of the Ospreys won't crash? I think he's saying half the troops will think better of getting into those deathtraps. In this case, he feels the glass is only half fools.
    --
    Kwisatz Haderach
    Sell the spice to CHOAM
    This Mahdi took Shaddam's Throne
  50. Re:Oh no the French are mad by Artfldgr · · Score: 2, Interesting

    did anyone ask how did they identify them as US? was it a big tag that said "Made in USA"?

    there are several states that do this... china, russia, the US... how can they tell?

  51. Blow them up! by Eric+Smith · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If no one will admit to owning them, then they're useful for the Chinese (or anyone else) as targets in antisatellite weapons tests. Other than the resulting debris, they'd be doing everyone a favor.

  52. that's no joke by Quadraginta · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Indeed, the Soviets used to do this routinely. When they knew American spy satellites were overhead, they'd get out big earthmoving equipment and dig strange holes in the ground, move large draped loads back and forth, et cetera. All the kinds of things they'd do if they were building a missile silo, or some other major military installation.

    By doing this all over the place, they forced the Americans to spread out their intelligence resources covering all kinds of bogus chaff, thus increasing the chance that some real military work would slip in beneath the radar, so to speak.

  53. Re:Tweenies by mephistophyles · · Score: 2, Funny

    They're being French wasn't reason enough?
    *ducks and runs*

  54. Re:Oh no the French are mad by Chibi+Merrow · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Except that it didn't sink, one of the missiles failed to work properly, and it was still Iraq who launched the attack anyway.

    The point isn't who the French sells their weapons to (which is every thug and terrorist with a pocketbook), it's whether or not they have the capability to use them for themselves. Yes, they're real good at machine gunning groups of unarmed protestors, but militaries tend to fight back...

    --
    Maxim: People cannot follow directions.
    Increases in truth directly with the length of time spent explaining them