Hardware Vendors Will Follow Money To Open Source

Stony Stevenson writes "Dirk Hohndel, Intel's chief technologist for open source, believes the installed base of Linux-based desktops could potentially double this year, based just on Eee PC sales. Speaking at open source conference Linux.conf.au in Melbourne, Hohndel said commercial pressure will be the incentive for traditionally Windows-centric hardware vendors to begin offering open source drivers and Linux-based systems to their customers. 'Open source has made the most inroads in the server market, where Linux-based servers represent roughly a quarter of the total market. But in other segments, such as mobile phones and desktops where open source hasn't had as much of an impact, vendors were less interested, Hohndel said. Linux penetration of the desktop environment is currently at around 0.8 percent, but Hohndel said consumer behavior is changing this.'"

Comments

Potentially? Come on.

[pleappleappleap]

could potentially double this year This statement doesn't mean a whole lot. What could potentially happen and what's likely to happen have never exactly been the same thing. I, myself, do believe that this is likely to happen, but saying that it could potentially happen is a cop-out. I could say that an asteroid could potentially hit the Earth this year. I'd be right, but I wouldn't be saying much.

It's here!

[Dread Roberts]

ZOMG! This could be the year!

Re:It's here!

[Anonymous Coward]

What really is exciting is that Duke Nukem Forever can't be too far behind!

Re:It's here!

[maxwell demon]

Well, according to the first summary, Linux on the desktop might double this year. According to the last sentence, it's currently at 0.8%. That means, this year it might raise to 1.6%. I'd not call that "the year of the Linux desktop".

However, if the doubling continues in the following years, Linux will reach 51.2% in five years (which obviously would be the end of the yearly doubling). Of course, there's a big if there ...

Cool! A new year!

[sgant]

And a new "Linux on the desktop is set to explode this year" comments from various people.

Though they're a little late on this aren't they? It's the end of January...they usually start this talk in the first 1 or 2 weeks of the year. But it's good to see they're consistent.

Also, not trolling here, I really hope Linux does explode and gain market share...it's just I've heard this year after year after year. But I suppose that one year it's actually going to happen.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[Compholio]

Also, not trolling here, I really hope Linux does explode and gain market share...it's just I've heard this year after year after year. But I suppose that one year it's actually going to happen.

Personally, I think we're getting really close to a tipping point. The past couple months have been the first time I've had people notice I'm not running Windows on my laptop and look interested rather than disgusted. I then try to remain as calm as possible (getting too excited puts people off) and explain that they can get Ubuntu for free, and even buy computers with it pre-loaded, and all the benefits of using a system built around free software.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[secPM_MS]

I am doubtful. The driving force for the extreme feature richness of Vista is almost certainly the hardware vendor's search for new features that will let them sell hardware to customers who already have adequate computers. Those customers who are happy with basic functionality will be happy with their Win 2K and XP boxes. For many people, the Win 98 boxes would remain adequate for browsing, light duty editing, and the like. Providing simple functionality only requires on sale, typically one that was made years ago. The hardware vendors need new feature that gobble RAM, CPU, and disc to sell their hardware. It seems to me that Microsoft is more the follower than the leader here.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[Drooling Iguana]

What kind of battery does the Eee use?

Re:Cool! A new year!

[Anonymous Coward]

And they will love you for it, until they try to edit their photos with GIMP.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[calebt3]

Unless they bought/pirated Photoshop, they were not likely doing any photo editing in the first place.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[somersault]

IMO it's already been happening, even without the Eee PC. Dell and other large vendors (dont Walmart do cheap Linux desktops?) are taking notice and getting on board. Vista is making people aware that they don't have to just use XP, and the fact that it has a lot of incompatibilities, and plain sucks, makes it a better time for people to try out alternatives (or 'evangelise' to their friends, but I cba these days, I'm happy even with little things like Firefox taking off and showing the possibilities of opensource software on the desktop.. in fact I have to point out Firefox next time someone looks incredulously at me when I suggest that they can get a free piece of software like the GIMP to perform a function that they usually pay for..)

Re:Cool! A new year!

[Calinous]

They were editing with MS Paint

Re:Cool! A new year!

[s20451]

Exactly my point. Here's your shiny new free operating system ... with your downgraded photo software. You say you want to buy the real Photoshop instead? Sorry, can't do that.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[jedidiah]

The obvious use is a cheap media convergence device.

Make a general purpose PC at about the same pricepoint
as the AppleTV and let the customer load whatever
software they want on it. It will beat the crap out of
network DVD players, be more flexible than the iTV and
be cheaper than the mini.

Make it cheap (like a walmart DVD) so that the consumers
end up spending more on computers than they would if
they had to spend the same money all at once.

An EEE hooked up to every TV and stereo in America and Europe.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[WK2]

Imagine how bad they would feel if Linux took off on the desktop on the exact same year that the yay-sayers stopped saying "???? is the year of the Linux desktop!"? Come to think of it, that might actually happen. A self-negating prophecy.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[dave420]

Not being rude, but that doesn't mean a thing. Firstly, those are just your experiences, and secondly, it's going to take more than a few people thinking "oh" to actually tip the status-quo of desktoppery we see every day. At most, if what you experienced was repeated en masse, it's a start of the change, not the middle of it.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[Culture20]

That's why I carry around extra "official" (silkscreened from Canonical https://shipit.ubuntu.com/ ) Ubuntu CDs in both my coat and laptop bag. Never lose an opportunity to evangelize.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[Anonymous Coward]

Actually, as of Wine 0.9.54 Photoshop CS/CS2 reportedly works.
Have not tested it personally, though so YMMV.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[jcnnghm]

I would switch to Linux today if I could install on the NVRaid array I use for windows, and configure tri-monitor support using two different graphics cards running three different resolutions in under 3 or 4 hours. The problem I have with trying to use Linux on the desktop is that doing fairly ordinary things requires a substantial time investment, like, for instance, installing a wireless card.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[MrNemesis]

Achilles' weakness was his heel, but it wasn't his fault.

Similarly, Linux's supposed lack of support for hardware (in reality, it's hardware's lack of support for Linux) is frequently what makes the tasks of which you speak difficult. I'm not saying that Linux couldn't do with alot of polish in regard to making some of the things that are supported easier, but the point of TFA is that there are still some hardware hurdles to overcome with certain manufacturers.

Incidentally, the latest ubuntu made switching between multi-monitor setups a million miles easier (depending on your hardware ;)). It's not perfect but it's light years ahead of what was commonly available less than a year ago. Dock my laptop - I get an extra screen automatically. Undock it - all the windows that were on the secondary monitor shift back to my laptop screen. Plug it into a different monitor and it's automatically detected (assuming correct EDID). One thing I've not done is try and use two different graphics cards at once though, but two screens at different resolutions from the same card is easy IME.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[jcnnghm]

That's good to hear. I haven't tried in a little over a year, but this is definitely a big deal to me, as previously this configuration was most definitely non-trivial.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[whychevron]

not to be left behind sears gets in to the game , Mirus w/linux 2 models

Re:Cool! A new year!

[MrNemesis]

Yup, I remember spending DAYS on getting my much beloved dual-monitor setup working in Gentoo several years ago, and was dreading my shift to Kubuntu for having to go through the process all over again. Thankfully, the nVidia drivers have been rock solid for me and most others for some years now, and the new developments with X.org and xrandr (X.org has positively shot along since the fork from XF86) rendered the whole process quick and painless (easier than windows in fact, IMHO). Fire up nVidia config utility. Click "turn on second monitor". Turn on TwinView. Test. Write settings to xorg.conf. Restart X if you want to use it Right Now.

Non-nvidia cards (like the Intel chipset in my laptop) have the inbuilt ubuntu graphics manager which follows a similar purpose and allows a similar degree of configurability. It detects what screens are connected, their resolution (either native or user-configured), and gives a degree of positional control.

All of the ubuntu xorg detection routines use bus ID's as far as I can tell, so using two different GFX cards that require two different drivers shouldn't be a problem, at least, I hope I'm right. Good luck with it if you decide to give it another shot.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[Just Some Guy]

And they will love you for it, until they try to edit their photos with GIMP.

I think your average user would be better served by other applications. And for all the times I hear "but they won't have Photoshop", I have to wonder how many people actually use PS in the first place. Outside a handful of graphic designers, no one I know has it installed.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[Anonymous Coward]

Yeah, I'm always getting DISGUSTED looks because I'm running a certain OS. You need to start hanging around more normal people!

Re:Cool! A new year!

[Anonymous Coward]

Linux's supposed lack of support for hardware (in reality, it's hardware's lack of support for Linux)

On the contrary, it is a lack of support on the side of Linux developers. In order to compete, and finally see the oft-mentioned "year of the Linux desktop", it is up to the developers to put in the effort to make Linux run as well as possible.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[xSauronx]

i use picasa for photo-editing under linux. id happily toy around with the Gimp, except....its crap. its certainly not intuitive enough to bother trying out just for personal photo editing, where picasa is simple and thorough.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[Just Some Guy]

You won't get any argument from me. I use Krita except when I absolutely must revert to Gimp (such as to run a specific filter).

Re:Cool! A new year!

[Isauq]

Don't know about your particular NVRaid array, but the monitors should take you about twenty minutes TOPS, and that's if you have three different GPU vendors running at once. That's been my experience, anyway.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[ill stew dottied ewe]

Funny indeed, but I have worked with people who think it is the only photo editor. They call me to they say "the picture is too big" when they try to edit a 6MP picture whith a ~1MP screen. Most claim they "can't use" the new programs I've put on the computer, even after I slowly walk through common tasks. These people even leave their pictures on the SD card instead of putting them on the computer. They had 20 cards of increasing capacity because they hadn't realized they were re-usable. What do you reccommend (free*, simple photo software) for people like this? *as in beer, not necessarily speach

Re:Cool! A new year!

[Flammon]

Linux is estimated to be on 1%-3% of desktops. There is only one tipping point so where do you think it is? 5%? That would be a very low tipping point and with leverage like that, Microsoft is in for a very bumpy ride. I hope you're right because for the first time in 10 years, my employer has forced me to use Windows XP on my Desktop (was Debian for the first 7 years, then Ubuntu came along), not for any other reason than the "It's the corporate standard". I'm doing it because they pay me but all it has done is make me like Ubuntu more. Can't wait for Hardy Heron.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[sumdumass]

Here is the thing you have to understand about the But I need photo shop crowd. I know this to be true from my personal experience and it would probably shed some light on helping you understand them more.

You see, most PS users that I come across are of two types of people. There is the profesional who needs parts of PS that just isn't available on other areas. I know two people like this. Then there are the Look at ME, I AM COOL people who pirate PS and in some cases, pay the $700 or so just to be one step of cool above the others. Now, from my experience, the professionals with an actual need won't even enter the debate on linux verses windows because PS is only a tool for them. The computer running it is a tool for them. They play toys are on a separate machine that if crashes, doesn't have the potential of stopping their ability to work and possible having to buy a new Photo shop version to repair it. I imagine there are a few who don't treat it as a tool, but they seem to be more of the type who use it because it was installed on the company computer they use, not because of some need.

The "but I need photo shop" people who are constantly raining on the switch to linux campaigns, discussions and so on, seem to be doing it seem to be afraid of loosing the coolness factor. When little Johnny says I can use photo shop and little Susie says oh.. you must be smart, can you help me mount this SD card, Johnny has to say "I'm not that smart". and looses the cool factor.

Think about this, if someone needed photoshop for work, after plopping $700+ on a single program, are they going to take steps to protect that investment? I had on guy tell me that it was too costly to have two computers and I had to ask what the hell the need for a $700 program was if it didn't generate at least $700 which would be about the costs of a second system. I didn't get an answer but I have to wonder how you would make money having more of an investment in tools then you have comming from the use of those tools. It just doesn't make sense to me.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[nickyj]

I actually use GIMP when I want to fiddle with photos beyond simple cropping or tweaking. Gimp is awesome at doing what photoshop charges for. For the hobbyist like me, GIMP is worth it, PS is not.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[IdeaMan]

Outside a handful of graphic designers, no one I know has it installed legally. There, fixed that for you.

I uhh a certain friend I know uses it whenever he does development work related to any type of modeling. Lots of kids messing around with websites use photoshop to make up cool effects on pictures.
And the obligatory: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiAgrrwL_mk

Re:Cool! A new year!

[Xabraxas]

And they will love you for it, until they try to edit their photos with GIMP.

How many people do you think actually buy Photoshop and among those that do how many use it for nothing more than cropping pictures? People think they need Photoshop to do these things but if they tried Linux (Hell, even Vista can handle most people's needs with Photo Gallery) they would quickly learn that that isn't the case. The only case where Photoshop is even necessary is for professional use.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[Xabraxas]

On the contrary, it is a lack of support on the side of Linux developers. In order to compete, and finally see the oft-mentioned "year of the Linux desktop", it is up to the developers to put in the effort to make Linux run as well as possible.

Why? If you take away all vendor provided drivers Linux supports a crapload more hardware out of the box than Windows. If more than just a handful of vendors made their own drivers for Linux it would be a no contest, hands down win for Linux. The support is really missing from the vendor side of things, not the Linux side.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[Just Some Guy]

There, fixed that for you.

Don't. Outside of a very small niche, you're wrong. Lots of kids have PS. A few adults, almost exclusively artists of different kinds, have PS. Almost no one else is interested in it, either legally or otherwise.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[ozmanjusri]

I would switch to Linux today if I could install on the NVRaid array I use for windows

NVRAID is just software RAID with assistance from the BIOS so it'll work under Windows.

Linux doesn't need the BIOS hack to do software RAID, so you can ignore that option and just use a distro that natively installs to soft RAID. The performance will be the same.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[JohnBailey]

On the contrary, it is a lack of support on the side of Linux developers. In order to compete, and finally see the oft-mentioned "year of the Linux desktop", it is up to the developers to put in the effort to make Linux run as well as possible. So Windows should be held to the same standards perhaps? Hate to break it to you, but Linux developers have already done it. Most standard hardware works out of the box with no added drivers needed. The more unusual stuff does need some careful choices, but the same could be said of any hardware that needs a manufacturer's driver disk.

Last time I installed Windows was last August, pretty standard hardware, a copy of XP home SP2... And a driver disk for the network card, the sound card, the TV tuner card, The motherboard drivers, the keyboard and mouse, and last but not least, the video card. All non Microsoft drivers for hardware designed primarily to run on Windows. Oh.. and I needed to make a driver disk to get windows to recognize the SATA drive I was about to install onto, and needed a second keyboard and mouse to get everything working, as Windows didn't recognize my Logitech wireless usb keyboard and mouse.

Now for Linux, I inserted the disk, and I had the network card recognized and set up automatically, and the sound card was also automatically set up and working on first boot, as was the motherboard drivers with USB2 functionality, and the SATA drive was recognised as such and treated appropriately. All on the exact same hardware which was all older than the copy of Windows I was installing. I would have had to download drivers for the video card, but thats about it. And Linux took minutes to format the entire 500gig drive, where Windows took hours.

If I am to take your statement seriously, we should hold Microsoft directly responsible for any hardware that does not work under Windows, as to paraphrase your comment, "It is up to the developers to put in the effort to make Windows run as well as possible"

Re:Cool! A new year!

[Calinous]

Google Picasa
      I still have issues with the way pictures are ordered (not fully alphabetically, not fully by date). Yet, cropping pictures is a breeze (more so than in any other image editor I've ever seen), you can only make a few adjustments BUT for pictures this is all you need. I like the interface, and I think everyone should like it.
      On the downside, 15" LCD screens are somewhat resolution-challenged.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[richlv]

for years, linux people have been getting systems either without an os, or with windows, removed it and gopt linux working on those devices, sometimes battling driver issues for some time.
eee, for the first time, made a friend of mine buy it to wipe off linux and install windows (he's a hardcore windows guy). and this time he had to hunt for drivers and go through this mess.
when we say "tipping point", we often miss these small things sticking out of "normal" flow of events. but it's these things that define and mark the tipping point, which is a bit more like a curve anyway :)

Re:Cool! A new year!

[argiedot]

A large number of people use Photoshop, but nearly all copies are pirated. It's pretty obvious, go to any Photoshop tutorials site and you'll see people reading tutorials on how to make a 'cool forum sig' in Photoshop. I find it very hard to believe that people pay $649 to do that and even if people do make such decisions I find it hard to believe that anyone pays $649 for software which they don't know how to use (If it's a tutorial posted on a forum the replies are indicative of this, people will say stuff like, "But Ctrl-Shift-U doesn't work for desaturate!" and then the guy who wrote the tutorial will mention that the shortcut key changed in the newest version)

Re:Cool! A new year!

[Jynx77]

Did you pull this computer out of a dumpster?

Re:Cool! A new year!

[jcnnghm]

I am aware that Linux has excellent software raid support, I use it on all my servers. But Windows doesn't, so if I want to dual boot I need Windows and Linux to share a nvraid array.

Re:Cool! A new year!

[JohnBailey]

Did you pull this computer out of a dumpster? Well.. it's only for running Windows. Why bother with anything any good?

Linux is bigger in Embedded than in servers

[jelle]

But I guess Intel isn't big in embedded, so they don't care...

Re:Linux is bigger in Embedded than in servers

[AoT]

To be fair, a lot of people don't care about embedded because no one sees the OS in embedded systems. It just isn't as Glamorous as desktops. Not that embedded systems aren't important mind you.

Re:Linux is bigger in Embedded than in servers

[pleappleappleap]

But I guess Intel isn't big in embedded, so they don't care.. Are you kidding? Intel is very big into embedded. Check these out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_8051
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XScale

Re:Linux is bigger in Embedded than in servers

[Anonymous Coward]

Don't look up. You may see something very big going OVER YOU HEAD!

Re:Linux is bigger in Embedded than in servers

[HAKdragon]

To be fair, a lot of people don't care about embedded because no one sees the OS in embedded systems.

Until your ATM running Windows Embedded crashes.

Re:Linux is bigger in Embedded than in servers

[miscz]

Have you read these articles? First words from XScale one: "The XScale, a microprocessor core, is Marvell's (formerly Intel's)"

Re:Linux is bigger in Embedded than in servers

[bob.appleyard]

I remember going up to an ATM when I was at University, and it had a BSOD on it. I couldn't believe it.

Re:Linux is bigger in Embedded than in servers

[JohnBailey]

To be fair, a lot of people don't care about embedded because no one sees the OS in embedded systems. Until your ATM running Windows Embedded crashes. AFTER it takes your card!

Re:Linux is bigger in Embedded than in servers

[jelle]

Those can't be important for Intel (anymore): 8051 is a sub $1 microcontroller that, really, no OS runs on... and the XScale has been sold to Marvell in 2006...

Integration is key

[TheMeuge]

While I think he makes sense, I think something else will be a far more important factor in driving Linux and open-source into the mainstream - the integration of technological products based on linux, across multiple platforms. The Google phone concept, if it is realized successfully by multiple companies, will certainly provide much of the impulse needed to push Linux into the consumer mainstream.

Just the ability to sync your mobile phone with a Linux platform (which I assume it will provide) will be a huge boost for Linux on the desktop, when it comes to small and medium business.

Actually, the slashdot "does it run linux" meme is very much appropriate here. If the devices you want run Linux and are compatible with other Linux devices, it only makes sense to adopt an all-Linux home/shop/business, etc...

Re:Integration is key

[morgan_greywolf]

Yeah, this might sound wacky to some, but it's actually right on the money. Integration is a key selling point for the desktop leaders, Microsoft's Windows and Apple's OS X. If I walk into CompUSA, Best Buy, or buy something off of NewEgg or whatever, it's pretty much a given that it's going to work with Windows. In addition, if I walk into an Apple store, it's pretty much a given that anything I walk out with will work with the latest version of OS X.

On Linux, we get a bad rap for poor hardware support. It's not really the case. We have good or, in many cases, excellent hardware support for a wide swath of popular hardware. But you have to do the necessary research to know what to buy and what not to buy when it comes to buying hardware for your Linux machine. In the Windows world, you stick with the big names -- they're guaranteed to work. In the Linux world, one scanner model from a vendor might be supported by SANE and another from the same vendor might not be.

A bright, enterprising individual would do well to come up with an online and -- even better -- a brick and mortar store that specializes in selling hardware that works well on Linux. Sure, it's been tried before and failed -- but that was then and this now and Linux has gotten much better support for hardware in recent years.

Re:Integration is key

[Anonymous Coward]

Actually, the slashdot "does it run linux" meme is very much appropriate here. If the devices you want run Linux and are compatible with other Linux devices, it only makes sense to adopt an all-Linux home/shop/business, etc...

Yeah, that's exactly what I was thinking when I was syncing my Palm OS PDA with a Windows 2000 machine.

I think you have it kind of backwards. The ability to sync a non-Linux device with a Linux PC is what would be huge. Think iPod for example. I'm sure there are at least some users* who would switch given that option.

* I really don't want to hear the ravings of lunatics who are going to claim that it would bolster the numbers by a couple of percent. In all honesty I think the idea of having iTunes for Linux is going to sell 50 times more iPods than the number of would-be Linux switchers.

Re:Integration is key

[Culture20]

Nokia's purchase of Trolltech makes me think Qpe might be seen on a few more devices from Finland too.

Re:Integration is key

[SgtChaireBourne]

We'll have to see. Nokia has a lot of MSFTers where they can cause harm these days and has even both fought against Ogg and worse signed onto some very nasty contracts to spread MS DRM even on their FOSS systems. The money says go FOSS, but the ideologs infiltrating the company are more concerned about peddling MS than about profit.

Even other big companies like Apple see the profit, it's just the MSFTers and MBA getting their teeny minds in the way.

Re:Integration is key

[joe 155]

"A bright, enterprising individual would do well to come up with an online and -- even better -- a brick and mortar store that specializes in selling hardware that works well on Linux"

I completely agree, although I would prefer something a bit more like what apple have done, so I can buy a computer or laptop which looks nice (hell, even looking OK would do), comes with linux and works flawlessly (I know everything has problems but it should work as good as Apples). I'd pledge to buy one from someone like the EFF if they set this up where I could buy it (in the UK).

Maybe the Asus is the first step towards this, but I'm waiting for a more high end system to come out with Linux on

Re:Integration is key

[Zoxed]

> Just the ability to sync your mobile phone with a Linux platform (which I assume it will provide) ...

An observation from recent history: the Sharp Zaurus PDA range all ran Linux, but Sharp did not provide any Linux syncing software: only Windows based.

(Of course, as the Zaurus ran Linux you could lash-up something yourself, but that is not the same thing !!)

If you call it a desktop

[splante]

That's only if you call the Eee pc a desktop. Don't they even refer to it as a "mobile internet device" or something like that?

Linux Desktops are far beyond his figures

[Anonymous Coward]

I don't where he gets his numbers, but someone needs to let him know the Linux desktop went past 0.8% about 5 years ago.

Double!

[Anonymous Coward]

the install base of Linux-based desktops could potentially double this year, based just on Eee PC sales Double?! Wow, that means this really is the year of the Linux desktop!

Yay!!

Horse Bones beaten with sticks

[Recovering Hater]

Lets trot out all the old cliches why don't we?

"Linux just needs some popular commercial games. Then we will see it take off on the home desktop."

Linux is set to take off this year for real this time!

I'm not trying to troll, but honestly, how often do we have to here these same soundbites?

Re:Horse Bones beaten with sticks

[mabhatter654]

Actually reality is that NOBODY has commercial games anymore.. Windows has games, but they're not in the numbers XBox or even PS3 as far as sales. Mac gets crumby games and they're growing... why?

The opportunity is open to move laterally into Vista territory. Vista is "better" than XP, but not better "enough" to throw away XP and spend twice as much money on a Vista compatible computer.... since Microsoft spent the entire XP era shooting PC gaming in the foot (with XBOX) the number of people that care about high performance is dwindling... combine that with Intel's "integrated" graphics that again limit gaming or other high end apps and 75% of customers really aren't buying machines much past these low end boxes.

The downside of Vista is that there is really nothing special Vista does, few apps, etc, that do something you can't do on Mac or Linux. (as we've taken gaming off the table and most people don't run "high end apps") Now is the time OEMS will want to move some hardware anyway they can. Due to the price of Vista, the sub $300 market is ripe for linux picking. The very dangerous thing will be when OEMS start selling small systems to do "just one task" very well.. eeePC is the tip of that spear... as they sell them hand over fist, more OEMS will want do do that too.

I call it a desktop

[pleappleappleap]

My definition of desktop is any machine I use regularly through its GUI console. Maybe too broad, but it works for me.

Re:I call it a desktop

[splante]

Well, I regularly use my Blackberry through it's GUI console. Heck, I regularly use my Tivo through it's GUI console. I think it's definitely too broad. Give it another go. If a Blackberry isn't a desktop, then clearly something can be designed that will be right on the line between that and an actual desktop. Maybe this is it.

Re:I call it a desktop

[alexgieg]

My definition of desktop is any machine I use regularly through its GUI console. Maybe too broad, but it works for me.

Mine is a little more literal: it's any computer whose natural place, so to speak, is on the "top" of a "desk". If it's designed to be used while being carried around, or anywhere other than the top of a desk, then, and only then, it's not a "desk-top".

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[Asic Eng]

saying that it could potentially happen is a cop-out

He said something different though: "The Eee PC is expected to hit 3 and a half million in 2008. There's a single computer that's going to double this figure this year". It seems the cop-out is in the summary rather than in Hohndel's statement.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[pleappleappleap]

Point taken.

2000^h1^h2^h3^h4^h5^h6^h7^h8

[hawks5999]

The Year of Linux on the Desktop.

Re:2000^h1^h2^h3^h4^h5^h6^h7^h8

[MetalPhalanx]

Wish my mod points didn't expire yesterday.

Re:2000^h1^h2^h3^h4^h5^h6^h7^h8

[AceJohnny]

The Year of Linux on the Desktop. Desktop's outdated. What we want now is Linux on the smartphone... ...and you know? with Android, that could even happen. Some colleagues are actually working on getting it to work on our chip. Of course, it's just another new contender against Symbian and Windows CE...

Sales != deployment

[Anonymous Coward]

We've never purchased a server that came pre-installed with an OS; using sales figures as a metric for market share is stupid.

There's far more linux machines than any official figures suggest. I'm using a laptop that shipped with WinXP and never even booted into that OS -- and so are the rest of my dept!

Re:Sales != deployment

[Anonymous Coward]

And on the other hand people also use dual boot and VMs. So deployments on hardware numbers are also skewed. I only run one native Linux machine but I have a few VMs of it.

Re:Sales != deployment

[zotz]

"I'm using a laptop that shipped with WinXP and never even booted into that OS"

Same here.

currently running ubuntu studio on that one.

all the best,

drew

The obligatory Star Trek quote

[westlake]

Linux penetration of the desktop environment is currently at around 0.8 percent,

Twice nothing is still nothing.

Re:The obligatory Star Trek quote

[toejam13]

Agreed.

When you have next to nothing, it is very easy to get something since you have almost nowhere to go other than up. However, statistics can be a funny thing when not put into perspective. If you made a gain of 3000% on your money, that's good. When you started out with only 5 cents, in the big picture, that's not very impressive.

That aside, I don't disagree that Linux could see a 200% gain in the next few years. However, once it has exhausted all of the low-hanging fruit in the operating system market, what's next?

Re:The obligatory Star Trek quote

[bkr1_2k]

What's next? A broader support base; in users, vendors, and monetary support across the board. With more support come more advancements under the hood as well as better applications. With more advancements, the gaps in market share will also drop a few percent more over time, possibly more than a few percent. Then the end-user will really have true choice.

Re:The obligatory Star Trek quote

[Requiem18th]

If a kid with only 5 cents in the pockets ends up with 150dls at the end of the day i would call that very impressive.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[betterunixthanunix]

I am always a bit wary when people talk about usage of some particular system "doubling." Linux usage will undoubtedly increase on the desktop, but doubling? That's a very generous estimate of the situation. I would be happy if it doubled, if only because people would slowly stop assuming that everybody in the world is either a Windows or Mac user. Let's be serious though: it will not double, unless someone big like Dell or HP actually tries marketing their Linux systems. Dell's Linux systems go un-advertised, and therefore unnoticed by anyone who doesn't know what Linux is or why it is worth their time.

As it is frequently pointed out in this site...

[tripmine]

He believes the install base of Linux-based desktops could potentially double this year, based just on Eee PC sales..

Double of a small number is still a small number.

Re:As it is frequently pointed out in this site...

[InlawBiker]

If you double a number every year it eventually becomes very large.

Re:As it is frequently pointed out in this site...

[BlueParrot]

Double of a small number is still a small number.

Let X be a small number greater than 0.

A: Under the assumption that double of a small number is a small number we have: Y is small => 2Y is small

B: Thus for all n > 0 we have (2^(n-1)) * X is small => (2^n)X is small

C: Thus by the principle of mathematical induction we have that (2^n) * X is small for all n > 0 and X > 0.

D: However, if X > 0 , then the sequence a(n) = (2^n) * X has no upper bound and is strictly increasing. Hence it diverges towards infinity.

E: So either double of a small number is not necessarily a small number, or all positive numbers are small numbers.

Re:As it is frequently pointed out in this site...

[DragonWriter]

Let X be a small number greater than 0.

A: Under the assumption that double of a small number is a small number we have: Y is small => 2Y is small

B: Thus for all n > 0 we have (2^(n-1)) * X is small => (2^n)X is small

C: Thus by the principle of mathematical induction we have that (2^n) * X is small for all n > 0 and X > 0.

D: However, if X > 0 , then the sequence a(n) = (2^n) * X has no upper bound and is strictly increasing. Hence it diverges towards infinity.

E: So either double of a small number is not necessarily a small number, or all positive numbers are small numbers.

Strictly speaking, E should also include "...or there are no small positive numbers."

Re:As it is frequently pointed out in this site...

[marcosdumay]

Eventualy, Linux will be installed on 128% of all computers... Then, we win :)

Re:As it is frequently pointed out in this site...

[paeanblack]

Let X be a small number greater than 0.
A: Under the assumption that double of a small number is a small number we have: Y is small => 2Y is small
B: Thus for all n > 0 we have (2^(n-1)) * X is small => (2^n)X is small
C: Thus by the principle of mathematical induction we have that (2^n) * X is small for all n > 0 and X > 0.
D: However, if X > 0 , then the sequence a(n) = (2^n) * X has no upper bound and is strictly increasing. Hence it diverges towards infinity.
E: So either double of a small number is not necessarily a small number, or all positive numbers are small numbers.

Replace the word "small" with "even" if you care to blow a giant smoking hole in your logic.

Re:As it is frequently pointed out in this site...

[Hugonz]

Double of a small number is still a small number.
Nah, in base 2, it's an order of magnitude higher!

Re:As it is frequently pointed out in this site...

[BlueParrot]

True, I need another step to show that any positive number can be written as X * 2^n , where n is in N and X is arbitrarily close to 0.

Re:As it is frequently pointed out in this site...

[maxwell demon]

You surely meant on 102.4% - remember, it's doubling from 0.8%, not from 1%.

Re:As it is frequently pointed out in this site...

[qwer_tea]

Or simpler: state the obvious fact that if A is a small number, and B And since you've shown that the set of small numbers has no upper bound, you've covered all real numbers.

Re:As it is frequently pointed out in this site...

[qwer_tea]

Repost (sorry for the bad HTML, that was my first post here):
Or simpler: state the obvious fact that if A is a small number, and B<=A, then B is also a small number.
And since you've shown that the set of small numbers has no upper bound, you've covered all real numbers.

Bah!

[Anonymous Coward]

My definition of desktop is any machine I use regularly through its GUI console. Maybe too broad, but it works for me.

When I was your age we had line printer ascii images for Pron and flipped toggle switches in octal to input them. That was my console and that's the way we liked it. Now get off my lawn!

After 2006 and 2007

[Britz]

2008 will be the year of desktop Linux.

Godwin's Law in under 40 posts...

[hal2814]

FTW: Why is this a surprise? BASF followed the money straight into a Holocaust.

Re:Godwin's Law in under 40 posts...

[InlawBiker]

Indeed, it's been shown that people will follow the money no matter where it goes.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[C_L_Lk]

I purchased one here for list price no problem last week - they have them in stock all the time.
http://www.canadacomputers.com/index.php?do=ShowProduct&cmd=pd&pid=016825&cid=896

You can find them available in store as well. They have 4 just in this colour in stock in my local store.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[Billhead]

How is this "vaporware" when they are easily available on Newegg and ebay?
Is it "vaporware" just because you can't walk into your local Office Depot/Fry's/Whatever and pick one up?

"eee" - a good intro to Linux for the masses

[InlawBiker]

Let's face it, not a lot of people are going to wipe out their Windows and install Linux. But something like the 'eee' is a good platform to put a wedge in the door. Even if it's just a tiny wedge. People will use it without even knowing it's Linux. They will understand that part of the low price is because Windows isn't on the machine.

All they'll know is they can surf and do email, and maybe listen to some music. Next they'll want to know if they can open a spreadsheet or write a document. Eventually they'll say, "Oh, this is Linux. This isn't so bad."

Re:"eee" - a good intro to Linux for the masses

[Anonymous Coward]

Having just bought one, it is indeed a very tiny wedge. I saw some poor sod on the Tube struggling with his huge Dell desk^H^H^H^Hlaptop today and had to stifle a laugh.

But me buying one isn't taking market share from Microsoft, it's taking it from Apple (since the MacBook Air is made of fail and I abandoned Microsoft a long time ago). You have to wonder about the eeePC figures: How many of the buyers are already using Linux or some other non-Windows OS? How many are using the instructions and drivers provided with the machine and installing their own copy of XP?

Certainly everyone I know with an eeePC falls into the first category which means it's not really a gain in Linux desktop users.

Year of the Linux Desktop

[ilovegeorgebush]

I've always thought that phrase was just something lame and idiotic bloggers who want traffic and respect, would say. I mean afterall, it's been said for the last decade or whatever, so I've never taken it seriously.
Now, though, I'm starting to think it might actually have some weight. You've got Dell, Asus and other vendors shipping hardware with Linux on it. Hell, even Tesco here in the UK sell Ubuntu PCs.

Anything that wipes that smug look off Ballmer's face is good enough for me :)

0.8 percent?

[sm62704]

How do they come up with this figure? Microsoft can count every PC sold with Windows installed plus other licenses sold, Apple can count computers sold, but GNU can be freely given away.

I gave copies of Mandriva to several people last year. None of these copies of that OS is counted as a desktop OS; they are counted as Windows, since they were either added to Windows machines as dual boot or replaced Windows completely.

A lot of GNU desktops MUST be being counted as Windows. Nobody asked ME how many copies of Linux I gave away!

Someone (Clemons?) once said there are three kinds of lies - lies, damned lies, and statistics.

-mcgrew
(don't bother with today's journal)

Re:0.8 percent?

[johannesg]

Simple: they count the number of licenses sold by SCO. Otherwise it wouldn't be legal...

Re:0.8 percent?

[Weedlekin]

"How do they come up with this figure?"

The key is "market share", which is a percentage of units sold over a particular period of time. Note the "sold" part, which all those Slashdotters who get into long arguments about the market share for X being really much higher than the market share of Y should take note of, because they're actually talking about usage figures, which market share doesn't claim to measure.

Re:0.8 percent?

[Anonymous Coward]

And how may of those copies have never been on the Internet?

Browser report the OS to every webserver you visit, I would guess they base stats mainly on this. Which probably over represents Linux. For an offline PC, the advantages of Linux are less and it can be very difficult to get CDs for all the OSS software you want.

The Distro's often divvy it up that .8% by the number of computers hitting their patch servers. This too should be fairly accurate.

Re:0.8 percent?

[zotz]

"The key is "market share", which is a percentage of units sold over a particular period of time."

Sure, so I sell you a license for 100,000 units of drew's custom distro. This gives you the right to use my brand icons and super special colour schemes on up to 100,000 copies of the distro of your choice.

And for an unlimited time, this special bonus offer. You can receive absolutely gratis (free for those wondering) the right to make another 100,000 and so on simply by sending me an email telling me you will be doing so.

OK, so should we try this and report all these hundreds of thousands of shipments?

all the best,

drew

Re:0.8 percent?

[Weedlekin]

"Sure, so I sell you a license for 100,000 units of drew's custom distro"

That counts as one license, i.e. one sale, so you get a market share of one unit, not 100,000 of them. The only way for it to count as 100,000 sales would be if I then sold a license to each individual copy for a nominal sum, e.g. 1 cent. Ever wonder why Microsoft are so strict about big companies auditing exactly how many copies of various items they actually install with those expensive corporate "all you can eat" site licenses despite the fact that they don't charge extra for the copies? It lets them claim each installation as a sale even if it ends up costing the customer a few cents, and the fact that the licenses are renewed every year means they can also log all those copies as a new sale every year, and this is reflected in their annual market share figures.

"And for an unlimited time, this special bonus offer. You can receive absolutely gratis (free for those wondering) the right to make another 100,000 and so on simply by sending me an email telling me you will be doing so."

Free gifts don't count as sales.

"OK, so should we try this and report all these hundreds of thousands of shipments?"

It would certainly be fun to try, but unfortunately those sort of tricks have been attempted in the past by companies trying to present false market share figures to raise their share price or attract other forms of investment, so the people who gather market share statistics won't count them as either shipped or sold units.

Re:0.8 percent?

[Bill Dimm]

I don't know where they get their stats from, but if I check the webserver logs for magportal.com (a fairly generic audience), I see 0.77% of unique IP addresses having "Linux" in the user-agent string over the past week.

Re:0.8 percent?

[zotz]

"It would certainly be fun to try, but unfortunately those sort of tricks have been attempted in the past by companies trying to present false market share figures to raise their share price or attract other forms of investment, so the people who gather market share statistics won't count them as either shipped or sold units."

So why do they count the forced bundled XP that came on my notebook and never even booted, being replaced by linux from the break as a windows sale? (I grant it was in fact a sale of a sorts but one that certainly deserves an asterisk at the very least. And if they had any sane return policy, should go down as a sale and a refund.)

all the best,

drew

Re:0.8 percent?

[Anonymous Coward]

It probably doesn't count the copies of Windows passed among friends, either.

Re:0.8 percent?

[Weedlekin]

"So why do they count the forced bundled XP that came on my notebook and never even booted, being replaced by linux from the break as a windows sale? (I grant it was in fact a sale of a sorts but one that certainly deserves an asterisk at the very least. And if they had any sane return policy, should go down as a sale and a refund.)"

You're missing the fact that Microsoft's sale wasn't to you, but to the OEM who bundled it with your computer, just like many other things in that computer will have been made by another company who sold them to the final computer manufacturer. Each of those suppliers counts the components that end up in your computer as a sale, despite the fact that they didn't sell them to you directly, so those sales will show up in market share figures for the companies who make disk drives, CPUs, graphics processors, sound subsystems, TFT panels, etc., etc., etc. And as with for example in-built wireless networking, the fact that you choose to use cabled networks instead doesn't mean that the manufacturer of the wireless networking components is obliged to not count those components as sales.

NB: items returned for refunds don't count as sales.

Re:0.8 percent?

[maxwell demon]

So why do they count the forced bundled XP that came on my notebook and never even booted, being replaced by linux from the break as a windows sale?

You didn't first test that the notebook really works, so that the seller couldn't claim it was your change to Linux which caused any problems you faced?

Re:0.8 percent?

[sm62704]

In that case Linux should account for about 99% of the market share!

Re:0.8 percent?

[sm62704]

If they're counting downloads only, then only the copy I downloaded would count, and none of the half dozen or so I gave away count. None of the ones I gave away count, even though they're all legal and proper.

There is no meaningful statistic on the number of Linux desktops, period.

Re:0.8 percent?

[sm62704]

Nor should it; they should only count legitimate, licensed copies. The GPL says that all the copies I gave away are legitimate, licensed copies, while the copies of Windows passed around among friends are illegal.

Re:0.8 percent?

[sm62704]

Still meaningless. It doesn't count the half dozen or so copies I gave away.

Re:0.8 percent?

[Bill Dimm]

Still meaningless. It doesn't count the half dozen or so copies I gave away.

That depends -- do the people using those half dozen copies surf the web? My point is that the 0.8% number is very similar to what I am seeing as "percentage of website users that are running Linux." If that is the measurement they are talking about, how the people got their copies has nothing to do with it. They are measuring how many people are using Linux to surf the web, not how many obtained it in any particular way.

Re:0.8 percent?

[SL Baur]

So why do they count the forced bundled XP that came on my notebook and never even booted, being replaced by linux from the break as a windows sale? Microsoft got paid for it. Not counting it as a sale would constitute shady accounting practice.

Re:0.8 percent?

[zotz]

"Microsoft got paid for it. Not counting it as a sale would constitute shady accounting practice."

I know, but in a properly functioning market, I would have returned it for a refund as I indicated.

Then it would not have been counted.

all the best,

drew

Re:0.8 percent?

[westlake]

I gave copies of Mandriva to several people last year. Nobody asked ME how many copies of Linux I gave away!

Because nobody cares.

The DIY system install is for the enthusiast.

For thirty years the home PC has been sold as an appliance. Unpack the box, connect the cables and you are good to go.

Dual boot is for the enthusiast.

File systems that can be read by Linux but not by Windows. Full-featured hardware drivers for Windows but not for Linux. Two software libraries to maintain. Two operating systems to maintain. Two skill sets to maintain.

The Geek never gets the meaning of "mass" in mass market.

Microsoft thinks of success in terms of selling its first 100 million licenses for Vista. There are perhaps one billion users on the Windows desktop world-wide.

When there was a strike on the L.A. docks Dell had entire fleets of planes in the air to maintain its supply lines.

The Home Shopping Network laptop special that airs at 3 AM eastern time migrates more users to Vista in five minutes than your occasional handout draws into the Linux fold in a year.

Re:0.8 percent?

[zotz]

"You're missing the fact that Microsoft's sale wasn't to you"

I don't think I am missing that fact. Check my first post in this thread and the response to it which I then answered. I am asking the follow up question in context.

You are telling me that MS sells to those OEMs one copy at a time? How is what they are doing different than my suggestion to sell 100,000 units at once for a reasonable price?

Aldo, re the thought that for "market share" numbers to be valid, a sale must be made, what's up with all of these pages:

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=internet+explorer+%2B%22market+share%22&btnG=Search

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=firefox+%2B%22market+share%22&btnG=Search

eg: "Firefox takes 28% market share in Europe : Mozilla Links"

all the best,

drew

Re:0.8 percent?

[SL Baur]

I know, but in a properly functioning market, I would have returned it for a refund as I indicated. Nothing about the consumer computer market is "properly functioning". Microsoft, like the tobacco companies, has built up an extraordinary business where it's best selling product is either not used, or best not to use. Businesses with an Enterprise Microsoft license are not going to use a preinstalled O/S, they are going to immediately replace it with the version used by their business. You have to love the fact that the Enterprise license requires a pre-installed Microsoft license on the target machine in order to be legal.

Nobody, not even the Microsoft fanboys here, recommends using a pre-installed Microsoft O/S, calling it "crapware laden", etc. But on the other hand, they also defend the sale of such at a lower price than an O/S-free system due to the subsidization of the "crapware".

It's an amazing situation. Microsoft has everyone conditioned to paying for the same software repeatedly and very few people see the problem with that. On the other hand s/Microsoft/RIAA/ and s/software/music/ and most folks have a problem.

So long as this model works, it will never be The Year for (Linux|Apple) on the desktop and it won't matter one way or the other. Microsoft still gets all its licensing fees and mindshare.

Then it would not have been counted. Of course. See the other post from some guy who boasted of having a whole department of computers where the pre-installed Microsoft O/S was never booted. None of it matters when Microsoft gets its licensing fees one way or the other.

The big winner is not likely to be somebody other than Microsoft. Maybe it will be the ReactOS guys, if instead of aiming at whatever the most recent version of Microsoft Windows is they aim instead at recreating Microsoft Windows XP. Microsoft still wins in the end because they own the "Windows standard" in a way that AT&T or its later licensees never managed to own a Unix standard.

Re:0.8 percent?

[zotz]

"Nothing about the consumer computer market is "properly functioning"."

I surely know that. It comes off a bit odd that most self styled "free market" guys don't seem to.

One thing though. I was playing with a way to win the unit market share game. Not the dollar market share game.

all the best,

drew

Re:0.8 percent?

[SL Baur]

I surely know that. It comes off a bit odd that most self styled "free market" guys don't seem to. I'm all for the free market, but it is not a free market when I can't walk into a store selling computers and buy one O/S-less. San Jose, California really pisses me off. I can do that in Manila, so which is more 3rd world, Manila or San Jose CA? Ah well, the current state of the US dollar may add another dimension to that discussion.

We seem to be arguing against separate issues and are probably on the same side. My apologies. I use Linux as my desktop of choice at work (versus a Solaris box and installed over Microsoft Windows). The one time I willingly purchased a Microsoft Windows license was for a computer (with Microsoft Windows XP Media edition[1]) for my wife (stupid, stupid me, I thought she would be able to get more support for it), when it crashed so much she gave it away to one of her younger sisters. I guess most people have a much higher definition of acceptable pain than my wife or I do.

[1] No crapware installed, so I absolutely paid in full for a license, sigh.

Re:0.8 percent?

[mjtg]

Well, I maintain a website that is non-technical in nature, and receives a fairly wide range of hits from countries around the world. In January 2008, it recorded over 2 million hits. So, I reckon that for estimating the proportion of Linux (and other) OS's in the world, this website is a reasonable gauge, at least for getting an idea of trends.

For years, hits from Linux desktops have sat around 0.2 - 0.4%.

From April through July, there was a steady increase to around 1.6 - 1.8%, and it seems to have plateaued there.

Here are the raw numbers for the past year (logs passed through a Perl script I use to generate stats, and grep'd for "Linux"):

access_log.07-01.gz Linux: 7913 (0.39%)
access_log.07-02.gz Linux: 8088 (0.38%)
access_log.07-03.gz Linux: 7477 (0.29%)
access_log.07-04.gz Linux: 25977 (0.96%)
access_log.07-05.gz Linux: 34574 (1.14%)
access_log.07-06.gz Linux: 30211 (1.39%)
access_log.07-07.gz Linux: 38062 (1.88%)
access_log.07-08.gz Linux: 39405 (1.75%)
access_log.07-09.gz Linux: 39334 (1.80%)
access_log.07-10.gz Linux: 48338 (1.75%)
access_log.07-11.gz Linux: 38527 (1.61%)
access_log.07-12.gz Linux: 27439 (1.64%)
access_log.08-01.gz Linux: 34587 (1.73%)

Re:0.8 percent?

[sm62704]

The "percentage of website users that are running Linux" is meaningless too, as many or maybe even most are having Firefox or Konqueror report to the server that it's IE on Windows, jusr for the websites written by idiots that redirect to a page that says "you must use IE", or are using WINE.

It's foolish to have your browser report that you're running Linux, and few GNU users are fools.

Re:0.8 percent?

[sm62704]

I would imagine that if I've given away/installed half dozen copies that every other nerd has as well. Multiply my half dozen by 3/4th os slashdotters and you have serious numbers.

Bit the point of the comment was that there is no way whatever to measure Lunix penetration.

Re:0.8 percent?

[Bill Dimm]

The "percentage of website users that are running Linux" is meaningless too, as many or maybe even most are having Firefox or Konqueror report to the server that it's IE on Windows, jusr for the websites written by idiots that redirect to a page that says "you must use IE", or are using WINE.

It's foolish to have your browser report that you're running Linux, and few GNU users are fools.

As one of the "foolish" Linux people who doesn't configure his browser to lie about running on Linux, I can say that I've encountered rather few websites worth going to that require such nonsense. If you are doing the majority of your browsing with IE on WINE, or you have your Firefox/Konqueror configured to tell every website you visit that you are running IE on Windows (rather than just the sites that really require it, which probably won't work anyway because they probably use Active-X), then you are just perpetuating the idea that it is OK to create IE/Windows-only websites.

Re:0.8 percent?

[sm62704]

You do realise that most Linux users have their browsers set to report that they're IE on Windows for the idiots who redirect any other combo to a "upgrade to internet explorer".

You're only counting those few who don't have your browser lie. Right now Firefox is reporting that I'm using IE6 on XP. Your stats are meaningless.

Re:0.8 percent?

[Weedlekin]

"You are telling me that MS sells to those OEMs one copy at a time?"

They sell both individual copies to small OEMs, and serial-numbered licenses printed on obligatory Microsoft stickers to large ones. Most OEMs put one of these stickers somewhere on the machine they sell you (usually on the back of desktops, and the bottom of laptops).

"How is what they are doing different than my suggestion to sell 100,000 units at once for a reasonable price?"

The difference lies in the fact that there is no mechanism for associating each of those licenses with a user, or in the case of MS OEM licenses (but not their full retail ones), a specific machine, which is what OEMs are paying them for. Like most commercial vendors, MS is extremely enthusiastic about keeping track of things like this, because some companies have made "unfortunate mistakes" such as "accidentally" selling the same license to lots of different people.

"Aldo, re the thought that for "market share" numbers to be valid, a sale must be made, what's up with all of these pages:"

They're using the term incorrectly. Feed "market share definition" into Google, click on some links, note what they say market share is (some include the formula for calculating it), and why things that aren't sold don't constitute "a market".

Re:0.8 percent?

[zotz]

"They're using the term incorrectly. Feed "market share definition" into Google, click on some links, note what they say market share is (some include the formula for calculating it), and why things that aren't sold don't constitute "a market"."

Fine, but then talking of Free Software's market share is using a foolish metric at best then.

So here we go.

I can sell "Big PC Maker" that license I was talking about. They can do their own serial number sticker or I can even say that my serial number must match the MS serial number for the same machine? Then I get "Big PC Maker" to add one cent to the sale price of each machine and now I have a market share... And my unit market share goes way up? My dollar market share is nothing to speak of though.

Also, re incorrect usage... that may be right but may suffer the same fate as the hacker versus cracker fight...

all the best,

drew

Re:0.8 percent?

[Weedlekin]

"Fine, but then talking of Free Software's market share is using a foolish metric at best then."

If you mean "free as in beer", then yes, it would indeed be a foolish metric. That's why I said that the term "market share" is likely to indicate that they're counting machines sold with desktop Linux on them, and perhaps boxed sets and other commercial packages, not usage figures (which are extremely difficult to calculate reliably for any item).

"I can sell "Big PC Maker" that license I was talking about. They can do their own serial number sticker or I can even say that my serial number must match the MS serial number for the same machine? Then I get "Big PC Maker" to add one cent to the sale price of each machine and now I have a market share... And my unit market share goes way up? My dollar market share is nothing to speak of though."

The system you describe would indeed mean that your figures give you a share of the "operating system market". Note also that it's quite common to also express market share by revenue, market share by units shipped, etc., although these are always qualified, so unqualified market share figures will be the percentage of units of a specific product that were sold.

"Also, re incorrect usage... that may be right but may suffer the same fate as the hacker versus cracker fight..."

You may well be correct in terms of popular usage, but it should be noted that unlike the hacker / cracker thing which involved fairly recent techno-slang, market share is a term that's been unambiguously defined for a long time, and those who study fields where knowing about it is important will continue to be taught that definition as part of their curricula.

"all the best,

drew"

Thanks. Have a pleasant weekend.

Re:0.8 percent?

[mjtg]

My stats aren't completely meaningless, they do show that:

1. ***AT LEAST*** 1.6% of the hits against my site were from Linux desktops (ie. more than 0.8%)
2. In the middle of 2007 there was a five-fold increase in the historically-steady number of desktop clients that identified themselves as Linux, and that this number has steadied since then.

Re:Ubuntu is a trojan horse

[MrNemesis]

You mean all those other devs I meet in IRC with handles like "billgroolz!" and "ballmerrocksmyballs" "jobsisawiener" weren't being sarcastic?!

I did wonder why I saw this chunk of code creep into ubuntu CVS as well;
if [ parttype.sda1 = "NTFS" && parttype.sda2 = "EvilLinuxFilesystem" ]
      sda1.wipedrive
      print "pwned by teh Ballmer!"
      exit

Fortunatele for me, it wasn't written in any exploitable programming language as gcc doesn't understand bad pseudocode. Although I'm sure are writing a patch for it as we speak.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[sm62704]

I could say that an asteroid could potentially hit the Earth this year

So lomg as an assteroid doesn't hit me I guess it's ok.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[Anonymous Coward]

Yeah, right. An Ee PC in a store? They're only on eBay I bought mine from a store and (except for the 8G), they still have them in stock.

They're a fucking vaporware Funny, for vapour they sure are tangible.

I want one so bad it hurts. So go buy one.

2003 was the year of the Linux desktop

[sm62704]

That was the year I installed Linux on my computer. I don't care what OS anybody else uses.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[Anonymous Coward]

2008 the year of Linux on the desktop!

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[mabhatter654]

but in this case, eeePC has a really small base, distinct enough to count as it's own non-laptop niche. It's a case where a really cheap OS combine with low-end hardware is something nobody else is selling, and Asus has proven people WANT to buy their combinations...it's not just "cheap".

Again?

[Udo Schmitz]

Is it "This is the year of Linux on the desktop"-time of year already? How time flies ...

Re:Again?

[shadylookin]

I doubt there will ever be "The year for the linux desktop." with each year linux's market share continues to increase. I imagine users will continue to trickle toward linux but i doubt we'll ever see the day when it breaks 50% market share. The article is of course common sense. The problem is: hardware vendors won't support linux because it doesn't have users, and users won't go to linux until it plays their crap, then hardware vendors won't support linux because it doesn't have users, and users won't go to linux until it plays their crap, and hardware vendors won't support linux because it doesn't have users, and users won't go to linux until it plays their crap, and harware vendors...... this is the vicious cycle that linux will need to get out of if it ever wants to be treated like a desktop OS. Granted it's come a long way, but it's still got a long way to go.

PS isn't "upgraded" GIMP either

[Anonymous Coward]

because you don't NEED Photoshop.

Shit, just because you pirated it doesn't mean it's worth $700.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[ericrost]

I purchased one for $299 from an Amazon Retailer on Dec 18th. I use it daily.

Keep Typing

[wsanders]

Most organizations of any size are whores to Outlook. Just sayin'. And if you write a big enough check and have fat enough tubes Exchange's massive clustering capabilities more or less work. Just sayin', like that's where the Linux desktop should be concentrating its resources. I'd be glad to be shown the error of my ways

Re:Keep Typing

[hawks5999]

I'd be glad to be shown the error of my ways Look here: http://www.novell.com/documentation/evolution24/index.html?treetitl.html

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[ericrost]

http://www.amazon.com/Asus-2G-Processor-Preloaded-Green/dp/B001150JQ8/ref=pd_bbs_8?ie=UTF8&s=electronics&qid=1201799317&sr=8-8

By the way, its still available.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[marcosdumay]

"it will not double, unless someone big like Dell or HP actually tries marketing their Linux systems."

Is Asus ok, or does it need to be Dell or HP? TFA and TF summary are talking about Eee.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[darrenkw]

I bought one for my wife and son to use. My wife is welcome to use my big $2000 machine but she prefers the EEE. I walked into my local computer shop looking for something else and walked out with one also. They had 8 of them sitting there. I know that's not many but it's a small shop and they said they had problems keeping them in stock because of the demand.

Linux fails on mobiles?

[Anonymous Coward]

At least on Smartphones, Linux is Symbian's biggest contender.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[tolan-b]

Several models of the EEE are in Amazon's top 10 best selling notebooks list.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[Anonymous Coward]

www.ncix.com
They have stores you can go in and buy one

Also, there's an asian mall by my place where you can buy them pre-modded and all - I believe they claimed to even offer one with a 64GB SSD (didn't bother asking the price)

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[Lumpy]

If they offered the EXACT SAME device running Embedded XP it would be far less capable of a machine. I'm a Embedded XP developer and hardware guy, I know it's limitations very well.

asus is winning because they are competing where Microsoft CANT. They cant fit a fully functional OS and app suite in that small of a place that runs that swiftly.
This is where Linux is shining. it's kicking the crap out of the big guys because it's far more scalable. Everyone else is interested in bigger and badder, while Linux and BSD both have sat there making sure it runs fine on tiny spaces.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[PrescriptionWarning]

"You know what? They're a fucking vaporware, a PR move for Asus, NO store anywhere in the world will ever sell a computer that's lighter, more silent, and has better battery life than ALL those $2,000 overpriced turds just beside them."

Probably not quite a valid point, the stores who sell laptops I'd imagine they make little money off the laptops and more from accessories anyway. And if accessorization of the iPod can get so huge, why not for the eee also? I bought my eee from Best Buy, online, so I would only have to wonder if they plan to ever sell it in the store... though I doubt they would until they can come preloaded with Vista/XP or something (as if you'd wanna run Vista on it, yeeesh), but you never know, they may decide there's enough potential sales in it as is sometime this year, maybe when the next version of the thing comes out.

Linux yes, open source, no

[cdrguru]

Linux hardware support might very well come. Open-source drivers aren't going to be the way it happens.

The problem is today most computer gear is commodity chips with the software/firmware/driver making it a unique product with a value proposition for the consumer. The hardware is easy to replicate - China has built a large part of their enconomy doing just that. The software is more difficult - so much more difficult that successful companies in the hardware space may be taking advantage of Far East production of the hardware device but keeping the firmware and drivers close to the vest. Failure to do that invites theft and results in a cheap knock-off with the R&D provided for them.

What this means is a printer where the driver does most of the work is cheap to design and cheap to produce. Anyone can copy the printer. Copying the driver - unless the hardware is 100% identical - isn't going to work. But if the source were available, it could easily be adapted to slightly different hardware by a junior programmer. Instant windfall for someone.

Same goes for a next-generation gigabit network card that has firmware downloaded into it or just about any software-based device you can think of.

Patent protection is meaningless in a global environment where one party doesn't respect any patents. Look at the DVD player situation today - $29 retail DVD players are not paying the $6 DVD Forum licensing fee. There isn't enough room in there for $6 to anyone. But the US Customs folks allow these in all day long even though they are violating US patents. To block them would uselessly create trade problems and would prevent US consumers from getting cheap DVD players. This happens with every other sort of device you can imagine.

Re:Linux yes, open source, no

[azgard]

I think you underestimate the Chinese. They have literally millions of smart people. And reverse engineering software is much easier than reverse engineering hardware. Just FYI - I from Czech Republic, and currently work as a developer for one American company, and people here in the development center are just smart as Americans are. Chinese will catch up in software in 5-10 years, if that haven't already happened (it may not be so visible, because they ignore English and work in Chinese - which has much larger potential user base).

Re:Linux yes, open source, no

[BPPG]

Personally, I've always hated the cheapness of printers and certain other peripherals. This might not be a widespread sentiment, but I think that if equipment were made to be more robust and long-lasting, it would be better for the consumer and the enviroment.

Re:Linux yes, open source, no

[DavidNWelton]

For those who care, feel free to list hardware that doesn't work with (open source) Linux here:

http://www.leenooks.com/

Notes on hardware that now works (even better with actual free drivers) are very welcome too.

Also, do avoid purchasing things there if you want a fully functional, free system.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[Anonymous Coward]

In the UK at least, PC World http://www.pcworld.co.uk/ and Disking http://www.disking.co.uk/ have them.

I have also been told Toys 'R' Us have them too, so thats definetly a strange definition of vapourware

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[Hatta]

I am always a bit wary when people talk about usage of some particular system "doubling." Linux usage will undoubtedly increase on the desktop, but doubling?

Yeah, now TWO people will use it!

You mean Mark Twain

[blitzkrieg3]

Who the hell calls him Clemens?

Re:You mean Mark Twain

[sm62704]

His dad.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[utopianfiat]

Blame Zonk.

World Domination 201

[MostAwesomeDude]

http://catb.org/~esr/writings/world-domination/world-domination-201.html

Re:World Domination 201

[ozmanjusri]

While high-end computers are definitely in 64-bit territory now, I think the low end these days would be happy to dwell on 32-bit machines awhile longer

I don't think I've bought a machine with a 32 bit CPU in the past year. Almost all mainstream CPUs have been 64 bit for a while now.

Or were you referring to operating systems?

Re:World Domination 201

[Ambidisastrous]

I suppose I was really referring to the point where the average new low-end computer has at least 4 MB RAM included. With most of the usual desktop apps moving online, it's still possible to get by with much less than that and still not feel deprived. When 4 MB is the minimum for normal computer use, especially office use, there will be some hard selective pressure on 64-bit operating systems. I've had zero experience with 64-bit Vista, but 64-bit Linux systems appear to be ready to go.

Nice, but where's the build quality?

[sethstorm]

Never mind the EEE, how about the laptops that have some actual quality in them? It's one thing to shortchange the laptop and use lower quality/knockoff components all around(and get support out of desperation); it's another thing with laptops that are actually worth their expense in proven design and quality components(and get support).

As for the China Problem, once there is someone brave enough to say "no" to them(and to those who step in their place) and enforce patent controls to where we can control quality with our borders.

Name one approved method for measuring Linux!!!

[Testocles]

Name one approved method for measuring Linux!!!

What I find is that figures like 0.8% are not properly verifiable. Somebody pressed F1 and Clippy told them what to measure!

These numbers may severely underestimate Linux deployment. If however records of press releases are counted up for how many systems got deployed by various companies, then for 2007 it is 1 million+ desktops PER MONTH getting installed. At least the press releases are independently verifiable. For embedded Linux (routers, flat TV, DVD recorders, M3/MP4 players etc) - the numbers are around 1 million devices sold PER DAY.

For this year, it should be easy. We are in January. The EEE as an example is projected to sell around 5 million this year. That then takes care of January to May. Join the dots with all the other press releases, at the end 2008, we should have a much better figure for how many Linux desktops, embedded devices etc got deployed. If the numbers get revised, then the figures can be revised, but in a verifiable way.

"linux" logo certs?

[plasmacutter]

the FSF, etc would do well to promote a linux logo cert. Something that can be put on a box that clearly states "this works with linux (or x list of distros) out of the box"

Re:"linux" logo certs?

[LWATCDR]

That really isn't possible.
If you created say a new Webcam and you wrote a driver for it the best path would be.
Make the driver FOSS and submit it to be added to the Kernel. The problem is you will have to wait until it is included in the kernel and then wait for the distros to adopt that version of the kernel.
Putting the driver on the CD or the internet isn't a great solution because the driver binary interface can and does change so there is good chance that the driver you include will not work. You could include the source but then you will have to provide someway for end user to compile the driver. Not exactly a simple thing to make easy. Yes I know how to run make and download libs but my mother might find gcc to be a little less than friendly.
So the end result is you new super wiz bang webcam can not be shipped until... Well that is out of your control.

This is where the lack of a binary driver interface is a problem.

Re:"linux" logo certs?

[richlv]

actually, it is relatively ueasy to create an "installer" - either a wrapper script, or something else - that can be clicked on and compiles the software. it might be somewhat more problematic with dependencies (compiling stuff you already mentioned like gcc, make, kernel source), as you'd have different package sets and different installation tools on different distributions - but i'd guess that if you do that for some mainstream distros it should cover most of the people. others would have to only figure the dependency installing themselves :)

Stop windows piracy if you want linux to grow.

[plasmacutter]

STOP PIRATING WINDOWS if you want linux to grow.

This means refusing to hand your cd's over to your friends, refusing to visit usenet or x/y torrent site and download it, etc.

If you present them with the actual cost of windows, rather than the ubiquitous perception of "free", they will be compelled to see the real value...

200 bucks for MS operating system, or free for one that works 99% as well for 99% of users.

Re:Stop windows piracy if you want linux to grow.

[maxwell demon]

If you present them with the actual cost of windows, rather than the ubiquitous perception of "free", they will be compelled to see the real value...

Of course the problem is that for most people, Windows is "free" because they get it preinstalled on the computer. I'd bet only a minority of home users install a different version of Windows later. They usually get their next OS with the next computer.

I'll believe that it is the year of Linux on the Desktop when I see the first TV commercial for a computer with Linux preinstalled.

How about this?

[plasmacutter]

how about this

processor as high as 2.33 ghz core2 duo with 4mb cache
17" 1680x1050 display
512mb vram
5.1ch surround audio

etc etc.

Orderable pre-loaded with your distro of choice.

not a bad machine, If I weren't just now re-examining kubuntu I'd snatch it up.

Shortsighted

[Almahtar]

Two times two is only four, right? And two times that is only 8... Geez, we're getting nowhere fast.

Freaking slow-ass geometric growth rates. Good thing you got modded insightful - clearly you have a point.

Education

[MadMacSkillz]

In the education world, we are drooling over this concept. Instead of buying $1,200 laptops, we can buy $299 "mobile internet devices" that run Open Office and Firefox...

Let me back up. The majority of educational software is now web-based. 90% of middle and high school computer usage is either web based or using a dedicated word processor. It's not the Asus specifically that has us interested, but the concept. If you've seen the Asus, it's really more like a web appliance. The average person would look at it the same way they look at the iPhone or an ATM machine... they don't know or care what the OS is underneath.

So for education, this could be huge. As competition increases and these devices get down to $199, the previously expensive idea of "one laptop per child" does not seem so expensive any more. There are three groups of people who need to be paying close attention to this: Microsoft, Apple, and Textbook makers.

Put this together with education's interest in "Web 2.0," aka "The Read/Write Web" where all your school books and files are available to you online anywhere, and you're brewing up the perfect storm. Apple should be working on a device of their own right now, if they're smart, and Microsoft.... Microsoft should be praying.

Double of a small number is still a small number.

[fractalrock]

"Double of a small number is still a small number."

I don't think you took into consideration: two chicks at the same time.

2008 - Year of the Linux Desktop

[Crazyswedishguy]

Now that I've said it, it's not going to happen.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[BrianGKUAC]

They have them at Best Buy in my town. I haven't had the extra money laying around to buy one yet. I'm currently torn between getting one of those or trying to find a Wii.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[wertigon]

I purchased one here for list price no problem last week - they have them in stock all the time.

You mean they had them in stock all the time before you told Slashdot where to get one?

Mobility did it for me

[svunt]

I've been a Windows user for years, as much as it pains me. I've experimented with linux distros before, but the learning curve combined with my need for efficiently running all sorts of apps all day have stopped me making a real effort - inevitably I'd come across the need for software that I couldn't find, or just didn't have the time to learn again on a new system, so my desktop always ends up rebooting to Windows and staying there.
With devices like the XO laptop and the eeePC, I have the low-cost option for a second machine to run linux. Now I feel like I can outlay a relatively small amount, keep using my mission-critical windows apps, and learn to use linux properly without a down side. The option of adding an OS to my routine, rather than switching completely, makes linux a lot more inviting.

Re:Mobility did it for me

[cbart387]

I was going to go into a big spiel about dual-booting but realized that that's what you've probably already tried. Another way to test Linux is to get a used older system (or one that you're going to retire). My system is very far below the specs required for Vista but will be sufficient for Linux until it dies (it's a laptop so I can't expect it to last forever).

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[Anonymous Coward]

Interesting to see your troll being modded up. The Microsoft evangelism teams must be out in force today.

World Domination 201

[Ambidisastrous]

Every time I hear about the Year Of Linux, I think of this:
World Domination 201

According to Eric Raymond, YoL = 2008, originally calculated in 2003 to be the year everyone switches to 64-bit. In theory, even low-end buyers would be getting 64-bit machines this year, and the race would be between Microsoft getting every hardware vendor on the planet to update all their drivers, Apple releasing an operating system for the masses (meaning, cheap commodity hardware), and Linux basically just being usable and keeping its source code open and 64-bit clean.

So far, 64-bit Vista is its own saga, Apple's new lightweight laptop costs $1,800, and in Linux's corner -- KDE 4, Ubuntu, and lots of love from hardware manufacturers, IBM and Sun.

While high-end computers are definitely in 64-bit territory now, I think the low end these days would be happy to dwell on 32-bit machines awhile longer -- which actually works in Linux's favor, since open-source development overall seems to be progressing much faster than whatever's going on internally at Microsoft.

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[Zencyde]

I'm sending this message on one! In fact, my battery is about to die!!!

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[Yfrwlf]

Not to mention I'm pretty sure several interests have it in for making things more bloated. Hardware vendors profit from "needed" upgrades, and software vendors profit from upgrade treadmills. It's all a very nice game for them.

Oh, and don't forget the lazy programming and crapware that also aid in bloat.

To prevent Linux from following the same path, we just need to make sure software is easily portable so it can be properly competed against. Don't like how slow your distro is running? Replace that bloated app with something else, or get rid of it. Keep a modular, scalable infrastructure and Linux will p0wn all.

Has been that way since MS-Dos

[krischik]

Microsoft and Software Pirates have always been living in some sort careful balanced symbiosis.

I first noticed with Windows 3.11 which was first pirated on Home-PC before being purchased for Office-PC's. At that time IBM tried to sell OS/2 to corporate customers only and ultimately failed.

And even before that - the legendary C64 has build his success largely on pirated software.

Martin

Do what without hardware docs?

[tepples]

On the contrary, it is a lack of support on the side of Linux developers. In order to compete, and finally see the oft-mentioned "year of the Linux desktop", it is up to the developers to put in the effort to make Linux run as well as possible. Several manufacturers of peripherals refuse to disclose detailed documentation to the developers of device drivers for a Free operating system. Case in point: I've tried contacting Microtek about docs that would allow SANE developers to write a driver for the ScanMaker 4850 USB flatbed scanner, but nobody ever wrote back. So what should developers do?

Bad blocks

[tepples]

And Linux took minutes to format the entire 500gig drive, where Windows took hours. How long does it take to read 500 GB of data over a USB 2.0 cable, in order to find damaged sectors?

Re:Potentially? Come on.

[palegray.net]

So go buy one. I bought one for my wife, and I assure you they're not vaporware. Nice little machines, in fact.