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Gartner Analysts Warn That Windows Is Collapsing
spacefiddle writes "Computerworld has an article about a presentation from Gartner analysts in Las Vegas claiming that Windows is 'collapsing', and that Microsoft 'must make radical changes to the operating system or risk becoming a has-been.' Michael Silver and Neil MacDonald provided an analysis of what went wrong with Vista, and what they feel Microsoft can and must do to correct its problems. Larry Dignan of ZDNet has his own take, and while he agrees, he suggests that the downfall of Windows will be slow and drawn-out. As an interesting tangent to this, there's also a story from a few days prior about Ubuntu replacing Windows for a school's library kiosks, getting good performance out of older hardware. '[Network administrator Daniel] Stefyn said he was "pleasantly surprised" to discover that the Kubuntu desktops ran some applications faster with Linux than when they ran on Windows. An additional benefit of Windows' departure from student library terminals saw the students cease 'hacking the setup to install and play games or trash the operating system.'"
Wait, Apple didn't have to customize OS X to run on the iPhone, it was perfect the way it was?
Wait, it's easier for people to develop and distrubte applications for the iPhone, even though the ability isn't avaiable yet?
Are these guys supposed to be taken seriously?
"...An additional benefit of Windows' departure from student library terminals saw the students cease 'hacking the setup to install and play games or trash the operating system....'"
Yeah, well just wait until he realizes what they have moved onto hacking....!!!
For how many years have slashdot 'experts' been predicting the 'downfall' of windows? For 23 years they have not just controlled, the word is 'dominated' the desktop environment. For the majority of computer users, the words 'Windows' and 'Computer' are borderline synonymous.
And you're proof? Because some users believe that 'Vista sucks' blah blah blah. How many people started ringing the bells for Microsoft after Windows ME? We saw how that worked out...
Whose to say that if you can't secure a Windows install you can secure a Linux system. Maybe this is just an example of security through obscurity rather than an actual enhancement.
An additional benefit of Windows' departure from student library terminals saw the students cease 'hacking the setup to install and play games or trash the operating system.'"
Yeah, that'll last. I'll give it a week before someone finds a manual and migrates their "expertise" to their new operating system.
I wrote my first program at the age of six, and I still can't work out how this website works.
I can see this happening rather quickly at home. It hasn't been hard to convince my family members to get away from Windows. While my wife is probably more computer savvy than most, she hasn't had any problems switching from Windows to Linux, and actually likes it more. It's been more difficult for others I've gotten to switch, but in general the result has been positive.
The corporate world is a completely different story, though. Many large, medium, and small companies have committed vast resources to development in .Net. And while a good chunk of that can be run on Mono in a non-Windows environment, it's not entirely the same, and transitioning to something else, from a OS or software perspective, is going to take even more time and money in an economy where money isn't readily available.
Additionally, while you can probably count on your IT staff to have a reasonably easy transition to something other than Windows, your non-tech employee base is almost certainly going to have a great deal of difficulty. Add in the fact that lots of small and mid-size businesses use "friendly" accounting software that runs solely on Windows, and I think Microsoft has a much larger buffer for error than most people think.
Will it happen? God I hope so... but I'm not optimistic it will happen even in the next 5-10 years.
Proudly supporting the Libertarian Party.
Michael Silver, it should be noted, is fairly neutral in his coverage of Microsoft. Here is a link to his past papers:
http://www.gartner.com/Search?op=16&f=2&keywords=&bop=0&op=16&sort=73&archived=0&simple1=0&n=8332&authorId=8332&resultsPerSearch=0&dir=70&sort=73&dir=70
The problem, as I see it, is not Vista itself. Rather, it is the slow but steady migration from PCs being central to computing tasks to reliance on servers for processing power and storage. Although Outlook client may run on your PC, the real work managing your company's mail is handled in the backrooms on server hardware. They aren't running client Windows back there.
So on the front end, as McNealy and Ellison have been saying for a decade, computers require less and less individual computing power, and backend servers need more and more. This is the problem for Windows because the growing requirements of the OS to do all the cool things that users like is outstripping the pace at which the needs of the users are growing. Translation: Vista does too much unnecessary stuff (however cool and flashy it might be.)
Apple does this too, but their hardware requirements are automatically met by virtue of them selling the hardware themselves. Linux, OTOH, is both a low-end client and a high-end server. It fills the roles needed by users without bringing with it a hefty cost per unit.
The upshot is that the PC as a computing platform is ailing. It will always have its place, and it will hang on for quite a while longer. However, the general trend towards less necessary functionality on the client end and more stability and power on the server side means that alternative systems now have a lower hurdle to gain a foothold in the upcoming paradigm shift.
We have already seen a huge shift away from laptops as the mobile computer towards dedicated devices like the Blackberry and smartphone. As we progress, many of the roles that the PC plays now will move closer to the user so that the usage scenario no longer is sitting in front of a glowing monitor but rather sitting back and doing the same job faster and more easily than currently performed. I, for one, welcome our new embedded overlords.
...do we really need Gartner to tell us that Vista is crap - one year and 3+ months after it was release?
Statements like "Users want a smaller Windows that can run on low-priced -- and low-powered -- hardware..." make me wonder if these guys graduated at the top of their class at Captain Obvious University.
Additionally they state "...increasingly, users work with "OS-agnostic applications..." - is there a reason for them to not just say "web apps"? And how about the fact that most large organizations have so much legacy code that even if Windows development stopped entirely today, you wouldn't get rid of all of that desktop apps for many, many, many years.
""Apple introduced its iPhone running OS X," no, it's a variant, which is a code-word for sub-set.
who said in 2001 that we'd all be using IM instead of email at work by 2006? My inbox says otherwise. I'll put this with all the other World of Tomorrow prognositcations, in the circular file.
Windows has always been a dog, but that has never stopped it. Vista is a dog, but I still have customers clamoring for it despite our best efforts to get them to stick with XP. The only way Linux will compete is if they build new platforms for people to do business on. Trying to clone the MS platform is always going to be buggy and incomplete. FOSS developers would do good to spend some time temping around as office admins to get an idea of how offices actually use their computers.
Of course Windows is going to decline.
The International Monetary Fund just announced that the sub-prime crisis has tipped the USA into the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. During recessions, the first thing to get cut back on is unnecessary infrastructure replacement -- and PCs have been marketed on the basis of planned obsolescence for around a decade now. So the PC replacement cycle will be hit, hard.
Vista is a resource hog, Ubuntu is just about coming up to mass market usability, and a lot of places are going to stop replacing their PCs annually or bi-annually in the next couple of years. Unless Windows 7 is as comparatively lightweight as XP, it's going to crash in the "upgrade your OS" market -- only new PCs will ship with it. So Microsoft will have two poor sellers in a row -- which is enough, in the mind of the fickle public, to establish a trend, and with Apple chowing down on 25% of the high-end laptop market already, they're in danger of being squeezed between a high-end competitor and a low-end one.
But.
Windows is so big, with such a huge established base, that its decline will resemble that of the old IBM mainframe environment -- which is still doing fine, decades after the death of the mainframe was predicted. This ain't going to happen overnight.
Because Apple is even more expensive and just as proprietary as Windows, won't let me build my own system, and is poorly supported by software developers. If Apple dominated the market, there is every reason to believe they would be just as heavy-handed as MS, if not much worse.
Because doing anything in Linux ends up with me banging my head against my computer screen. Even Ubuntu, the most user-friendly distro so far, is an endless series of frustrations. "Why can't I just download a piece of software and double-click on it to install?!?!" "What is the difference between KDE and Gnome and why should it matter?!?!" "Why do I have to go to the command line interface to do even basic stuff?" Hell, until the latest release, Ubuntu wouldn't even let me attach a projector without a complicated edit to the Xorg config file. ARGHHHHH!!!
Windows may die one day, but it's going to take a *lot* more work before anyone else is going to slay that dragon.
SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
All the man said was that the students stopped "hacking the setup to install and play games or trash the operating system."
If you infer any more from that statement than that the kids stopped hacking to install games or trash the os, that's about you and whatever you're bringing to your reading of the article.
There are folks that take the word of Gartner like it is manna from heaven and it continues to amaze me. They've managed to position themselves a trusted source by putting products in a 2x2 square after they interview people using the software despite the fact that most of the time they end up being wrong. Like any good psychic, they only refer to their successes at predicting the future and hope people will forget when they missed the mark.
STFU & GBTW
I know people who were used to Windows XP and managed to use a Macintosh running Leopard without any assistance (including figuring out how to use the touchpad with two fingers), but had real problems using Vista.
Given the UI differences between Vista and Windows _95_ (let alone XP) are almost all cosmetic, whereas the UI differences between any version of Windows and any version of MacOS [X] are most fundamental, I'm going to have to call bullshit.
Anyone having trouble going XP to Vista is going to have substantially more trouble going XP to OS X. Unless, of course, they've got someone whispering in their ear about how much Vista sux0rs and how much OSX rawks.
... it's not that I'm not looking forward to a world where MS no longer controls the desktop market. It's just that in the places it matters, MS software is *so* much easier to use than the competitors.
An example, if you will: I recently wanted to set up a mailing/scheduling system at home because I have way too many computers to manually add all my appointments and contacts to. My order of preference for these kinds of projects is usally Linux first, and then MS, so I tried setting up Zimbra (thanks for acting like MS and locking features down, asshats!), then Scalix (holy hell, I've never seen such a complicated management interface) and finally Kolab (feature incomplete). I spent a total of about 40 hours getting all of these things to run.
I was left with no choice other than an MS solution. I had all the bits and pieces lying around the house, and in the end, it took less than two hours to put together an AD domain controller with Exchange running on it. And that includes the time it took to set up each of my seven computers to talk to the system.
Really, I don't mean to come off as an MS shill. When I'm working for myself, Linux is my first port of call. But OSS is far behind MS on the usability front, and until it catches up, the (bulk) business customers that drive the IT industry won't abandon MS.
All of you open source developers hoping for the day that Linux/BSD/etc is taken seriously as a consumer platform (similar to what Windows and the Mac OS have enjoyed for over a decade) need to start banding together now to discuss how to make something as complicated as Linux truly accessible to any user without sacrificing the benefits Linux offers. Until commercial entities like Adobe see that there is a viable audience to market their products to in Linux/BSD/etc, these OSes are going to live out most of their lives as little more than behind-the-scenes grunt-work software or as a niche item on a hobbyist's / enthusiast's computer in some basement.
Somehow, there needs to be some form of interface consistency across the board that is logical, useful and attractive to even the least intelligent of users.
Take the 3D application "Blender" for example. Most of us know that Blender itself is fairly powerful when used correctly by the right person. Yet despite the fact that Blender is both power and free, your typical consumer level user is far more likely to gravitate toward products like Carrara Studio, based almost entirely on it's presentation and interface design. People don't like it when their software intimidates them and they are more than willing to pay good money to avoid it whenever possible.
You also have to consider that time is a major factor as well. While anyone could "learn" to use Blender effectively and efficiently, the time invested in overcoming the learning curve is too much for many of us. If you were to compare Blender's interface directly against Carrara Studio's interface. Most users would again gravitate toward Carrara since they perceive a much lower investment of time involved in trying to "get it". The reality though, is that the core learning curve on either of these apps for most functions is probably identical.
Overall though, it's likely going to be a lot more difficult than it sounds to put a new face on Linux to make it pretty, useful and non-threatening to the average user. Hell, Apple's been trying for nearly 10 years with Mac OS X, and they've only just barely got it right. (Despite the numerous flaws...) It can be done, but it'll take a lot of effort to really pull it off.
8==8 Bones 8==8
While I am no Microsoft fan being a Linux and Mac user, I am not stupid enough to believe this story again. For years, literally years, people have ben predicting the downfall of the evil empire. Still hasn't happened. No matter how cute the "Alternative OS" community wants to sound in its references to Ghandi, it does not change the fact that until something better comes along, no Linux and Mac are not better from a business stand point, Microsoft is not going anywhere.
As a Linux user I have the opposite frustrations when I come to use Windows. "Why do I have to search the web to find a piece of software to download? Why can't I just go to 'Add/Remove Programs', type in the name (or a keyword) and click install?", "Why can't I chose a different desktop environment when I log in?", "Why can't I use the command line to do even basic stuff?"
Different strokes for different folks.
Stupid flounders!
No, sorry, going from XP to Mac OS X is fairly trivial for casual users. I think it might be more difficult for an expert user actually, as you have to dig into the more arcane aspects of Mac OS X where the difference is really noticeable. When our house switched to Macs I found that common tasks and such, where they differed from XP, made more sense than XP's configuration. I don't have any Vista experience though, so I don't know what switching from XP to Vista is like.
Rule of Slashdot #0: You and people like you are not representative of the larger population. - A.C.
Gartner just wants to appear to be a "leader", so now that its obvious to anyone with more than 3 brain cells still funcitoning that Windows has nowhere to go but down, they're running really fast to get in front of where those in the know have been heading, and make it look like they somehow have a clue.
They don't.
But anyone who needs these "analysts" to help them form an opinion doesn't have a clue to begin with.
Kevin Smith on Prince
Iphtashu Fitz, you are confounding two separate issues. Scruffy said it well: "backward compatibility != keeping legacy code".
It seems to me that on every project of any significant duration, the engineers itch for a rewrite. Even on green fields applications, by the time they're done they think it needs replacing. In most circumstances, managers do well to ignore their pleadings, as rewrites come at great expense. Very frequently they do not improve the situation significantly either, since they don't address the fundamental problem: a team the puts out shit on the first iteration is likely to do so on the second as well. There are better ways to get a crufty code base into shape. Michael Feathers has written an entire book on the subject, "Working Effectively with Legacy Code". I highly recommend reading it if you are in this situation -- and I expect most of us are. In any case, the decision to rewrite is fundamentally a technical one.
On the other hand, a policy of maintaining backward compatibility, while it has implications for the development team, is purely a business decision. Yes, it can put a great burden on a development team and seriously hamper the delivery of new features, but any manager would be aware of this and of the potential cost in new customer accounts. At the same time, it minimizes disruption for existing customers -- customers who might be driven into your competitors' arms if you are too quick to put out compatibility breaking changes. Anybody who thinks this is an easy call should read Clayton Christensen's book, "The Innovator's Dilemma".
To all those people who tout linux as being the best they are quite ignorant. The best is whatever operating system suits your needs. If all you do is email and web surf then any operating system will do. If you are a developer then maybe Linux/Unix is better suited for you. If you are a gamer then Windows is better for you due to it being both DirectX and OpenGL Compatible.
I can't for the life of me imagine a day when Gartner wasn't MS's Bitch. Did she catch MS in bed with someone else? A man perhaps?
From TFA Summary: "must make radical changes to the operating system"
Any software developer knows that 'radical changes' to working (however imperfectly) code is a bad idea. The only thing really wrong with Vista (other than the necessity of all those graphics in the first place, which boils down to a matter of opinion) is the video drivers, which can be blamed on Nvidia and ATI, not Microsoft. I get similar problems using the proprietary binary drivers on Linux from time to time as well though. It usually only crashes Xwindows rather than requiring a reboot, but you probably shouldn't be running a 3d graphics on a machine with uptime requirements in the first place.
Mr. Silver and Mr. MacDonald are either:
a) Complete morons
b) Covert Linux enthusiasts frustrated by Linux's slow advances in the desktop space
c) Very knowledgeable about the direct relationship between sensationalism and ratings and lack thereof between intelligent analysis and ratings