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Microsoft Decides To Take On Linux On Low-Cost PCs
e5rebel writes "Microsoft is launching a program to promote the use of its Windows OS in ultra low-cost PCs. It is an effort to stop Linux dominating this market but Microsoft is insisting on limiting the hardware specs of these devices."
"For just a little extra money, you can have degraded performance and not have to worry about all that controlling-your-own-hardware nonsense"
Alas, like most of their similar pitches, I'm putting my money on it working spectacularly.
My turnips listen for the soft cry of your love
You create artificial shortages and cripple the hardware to keep the market from "eroding". I guess we don't don't create markets to sell products anymore. We create them for their own sake. That's quite a monster you got there.
What?
If the plan is to deliberately cripple the low end Pc hardware specs, then how can you get decent performance out of windows? I remember that XP would barely run wel lat all on my old computer, so wouldn't Windows 2000 be more suited to this task?
"It is a denial of justice not to stretch out a helping hand to the fallen; that is the common right of humanity."
How will Microsoft compete? It is very common knowledge that Windows runs slower on any given system than Linux does. The low-end PCs are not beefy by any means. Linux will just feel snappier and also shouldn't need as much RAM for similar tasks.
In the low end, it seems like all MS will be doing is highlighting their shortcomings.
and, you know what? We're not scared. You see us getting our foot in the door, and you're scared. Be sure that this is the beginning of a long series of victories.
Mircrosoft, DON'T TREAD ON ME. Someone get cracking on the flag.
Once Joe Random use linux on a low priced pc, why would Joe Random want to pay the Microsoft Tax ever again?
Limiting the hardware specs ensures a healthy profit margin on the OS. Sounds like good business.
We wouldn't want folks loading "WinXP lite" on good hardware. It might run really fast and have fewer conflicts, then they'll come to expect that from us in other products.
Invenio via vel creo
Can someone convince me that these devices are [very] useful to the point of replacing the notebook? You see, I will be returning to this September and would like to consider one of these devices as a replacement for a notebook. Can I for example, load OpenOffice.org on the Eee PC?
How the hardware isn't crippled until Windows is installed on it :;)
http://chimpbox.us
Do business schools teach their students that it is somehow a good idea to accept the terms of a "discount" from one supplier that require you to ship a POS product, when if you go with another supplier, it's absolutely free and you can sell whatever you want?
It seems people were buying the EeePC just the way it was, with Linux and all, and using it just fine. I can't speak to it myself, as I have no use for such a device. However, what rationale is there for screwing up a perfectly good market just to make Microsoft happy, when they weren't a player to begin with?
The first is that they limit screen size and also prevent you from having touch screens. Maybe it's just me, but the probability of any device I own having a touch screen goes up the smaller the screen size is, so this seems like they are shooting themselves in the foot.
The other thing that really leaps out is this:
The goal apparently is to limit the hardware capabilities of ULPCs so that they don't eat into the market for mainstream PCs I can think of a lot of other companies that have tried to limit the capabilities of products in one market segment so that they don't compete with those in another (IBM with the PC, SGI with low-end graphics hardware) but I can't think of a single company where the approach has resulted in anything other than them losing the market to a competitor. Maybe the MS monopoly is so strong that they can do this, but I doubt it somehow.I am TheRaven on Soylent News
Microsoft is only insisting that screen dimensions be limited, that the hard-drive be restricted to 80GB, and that the screens may not be touch-screens. TFA does not mention any restrictions on RAM or processor speed.
So if you're looking for thin & light notebooks to join your AD domain, you still need the Linux ones.
They've just defined the features for the next big Linux boom: 12" touch screen, 100GB HDD, dual core. That was clever. Differentiate your product as the less capable one. Genius!
These machines will never run Vista well. Let's keep that important knowledge in front of people. Intel expects to move 10 million Atom platforms in the first wave, and none will have Vista.
Help stamp out iliturcy.
I don't know about ultra low cost pc's but I've held on to an old laptop that's falling apart, had a failing drive and the replacement never quite fit so I just pulled it out and have been using a Damn Small Linux CD to boot so I can browse the web and even VNC into my main desktop.
I also found this today. MilaX which claims to be like DSL but is based on OpenSolaris. But it doesn't look like that POS laptop will be able to run this.
MS is planning on charging betweek $26-$32 bucks for Windows XP Home Edition for these machines. That's still a significant cost compared to the price of these machines. Especially the One Laptop Per Child based on reports of what they're planning on charging. But then again it seems their prototypes wound up being 2x as much as planned.
Open Source Java DAO Generator
>"Microsoft is launching a program to promote the use of its Windows OS in ultra low-cost PCs"
Sorry, we don't need that elaborate oxymoron.
Colorless green Cthulhu waits dreaming furiously.
I see it like this:
a) you pay extra buck and receive virus-prone, nsa-prone, starforce-prone, and stupidity-prone OS on a hardware which isn't directX games-capable by itself (10.2" display? I wonder what's GPU)
b) you don't pay a thing and receive a computer with GPL OS on it like Gentoo or Ubuntu which is 99% virus-immune, 99.9% nsa-immune, 100% starforce-immune and to a great extent stupidity-immune, with a lot of software already pre-installed so you don't have to pay additional $ for office suite, etc, etc
I'd go for b), hands down.
And if I was OEM, I'd stick with b) too.
If Microsoft attempts to force manufacturers to cripple their products, it is going to be hit hard by antitrust authorities, as this is a clear-cut case of monopoly abuse. So the Europeans will draw more cash from Microsoft and the American politicians will increase their pardon fees. At one point, this is not going to be financially profitable to Microsoft: European antitrust penalty + American pardon fees + very little money from the crippled computers = net loss. So their only goal seems to be killing that market before it becomes unstoppable. But people are sick and tired of carry heavy weights around, so they have to fight not only against the zero cost of Linux but also against the comfort level of travellers, and even if they were able to kill Linux no marketing campaign is going to convince people to carry more weight around other than in their belly and bottoms.
With MS trying hard to limit a company's hardware, that means that they will prevent sony and others from competing directly. So NOW is the time to start a hardware company. Do several platforms. The first being something that is XO style. Then go to next levels, which would be just above what MS is blocking. At that level, make it have touch screen. And of course, make it with some form of OSS (most likely Linux). This will allow you to hold down costs, and compete against the big boys
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
With the EeePC Microsoft got a deal. ASUS ships the EeePC with Microsoft Windows XP and with Linux. But Linux users won't get the EeePC cheaper - the have to buy a bundle with another memory card. So both varieties of the EeePC cost the same.
And what is the story here? Of course Microsoft were going to come up with some kind of deal with the manufactuers of this "new" generation of lowered powered ultra portables. I don't really have a problem. People can use what they want and if Microsoft make another edition of Windows for ultra portables that is fine with me. Competition is a good thing no? Forcing end users to use something they don't want isn't a good solution, choice is. Is that what we say Linux is all about?
I run XP on my first gen Eee PC because I wanted Windows. It runs just as quick as the default Xandros and other Linux distros I put on it. I didn't have to do anything special to get XP running on it either. I borrowed an external CD drive from a friend and installed XP. Installed the drivers and thats it. Same thing for Ubuntu.
People bash on about XP being slow and crappy on these low power systems but in reality it isn't. Vista is going to be another story and so I welcome Microsoft's efforts to make Vista run as well as XP does currently. Stripping extra services out which only 0.1% of Windows users actually use will help greatly. One thing I assume they will do is setup some kind of specification for what is and isn't a "lower powered ultra portable laptop" and then only license this "special version" to OEMs with a system that meets the specs. I also welcome this as it gives Linux a spec to aim at as well.
All in all I welcome Microsoft's decision. Competition is good for us (the consumers). Let's enjoy it and give them feedback on what you want/don't want.
So ... your mythical Windows user bought the cheapest box he could find ... and then wants to spend MORE money ... at WalMart ... on applications?
When he could just download the app at home.
Let's not miss this one. The Atom processors will come up to dual core. No XP for them.
Help stamp out iliturcy.
It is an effort to stop Linux dominating this market
Whoa, we're dominating a desktop market? That's awesome!
Sometimes, when you turn around and look at the path that FLOSS has made over the past two decades, you just have to be proud. Way to go everyone!
It's starting to feel like the good ol' days.
I've missed this. Like an alcoholic having his first sip of the sauce after 4 or 5 years.
Aaaaaaah that's good stuff.
Frpm TFA: Imposing the limitations solves a number of problems for the PC industry, said industry analyst Roger Kay, president of EndPoint Technologies Associates. "It allows PC makers to offer a low-cost alternative, and it prevents eroding of pricing and margins in the mainstream OS market," he said.
It also stifles progress but of course that is not so important. And I'd like to know what the EU has to say about this new monopoly abuse from MS.
-- Cheers!
where's the value for the consumer in this -- when the reasoning is to 'limit the hardware capabilities of ULPCs so that they don't eat into the market for mainstream PCs running Windows Vista'...??
1: Give up the immunity necklace?
2: Let Microsoft dictate their product design, especially into a less competitive stance?
"It's the height of ridiculousness to say for those 9 lines you get hundreds of millions."
The PC industry is terrified of low-cost laptops. They see $199 laptops in bubble packs at every WalMart, with a profit of about $1 per unit. Dell is in trouble; their custom-build business model is dying. So Microsoft's approach to driving up prices looks attractive.
It won't last, but it might be good for a few years.
... which, considering its LAN deficiencies (among others), is crap - even by MS standards.
Let's wait and see what the terms for an equally severely crippled MS Office "Home edition" will be - text files limited to 500 chars? Or will this be called just "MS Works 2009"?
The simple fact is, that if you go through a middle man, you are screwed wether MS controls them. That is why it must be sold on the net and directly to businesses. Gateway and Dell both learned it and forgot about that. Start off where nobody is at, but customers want.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
And then IBM tried to protect the IBM PC market from lower-price competition with the crippled PC-Jr.
"It's the height of ridiculousness to say for those 9 lines you get hundreds of millions."
"When will MS begin to put the interests of their customers first?"
When their customers grow a pair and realize that MS sells something for which there are substitutes.
Also the federal government.
My turnips listen for the soft cry of your love
Microsoft could have easily enforced this limitation in their software. Refuse to run at a resolution over 800x600, or recognize any space on a hard drive in excess of 80GB. They didn't have to try and lock the hardware down.
Moore's Law will kill them over this. A year from now 160GB drives will cost what 80GB cost today, and if this manufacturer isn't producing larger, higher resolution screen laptops at the same price, someone else will be doing it and eating their lunch.
Microsoft can't stall progress, as much as they might wish to try.
"It's the height of ridiculousness to say for those 9 lines you get hundreds of millions."
I know Joe. He wants a lot of things. He wants our web design firm to make it so that whatever funky formatting he tries to paste in from MS Word will come out in the site exactly how it looks in Word.
Joe has a problem: the cost of creating an online application that mirrors Word (and Excel and friends) exactly is in the several-millions, and is furthermore legally proscribed by patents anyway.
We can hook Joe up with some great RTEs and OOo templates that work for a couple thousand dollars, but Joe wants the illegal multimillion dollar project for $2,000.
I'm not interested in trying to accomodate Joe anymore.
My turnips listen for the soft cry of your love
Wrong! If you RTFA, at the bottom is says RAM to be limited to 1GB, and processors to be limited to single core at 1GHz.
"It's the height of ridiculousness to say for those 9 lines you get hundreds of millions."
...imagine ten years from now what the computers are going to be like and the price on them.
Imagine paying more for one of these low cost computers running windowsXP than you will in buying something more powerful and for a price half of what you'd pay for one of these.
Technology advancement is not going to stop, nor is the power increase of computer technology.
Yet the constraints MS is trying to apply is not designed with such industry advancement in mind, but rather trying to get better in on a market today, and thats all.
Still its less expensive to use Linux and even customize it to run efficiently on even lessor products today.
At what point in advancement will the low cost laptop computer be more powerful then system in use today? Like didn't that happen yesterday considering computer or 3 years ago and longer, are still being used and they cost a lot more then?
Ultimately this is clearly user constraining MS thinking. Not really something from reality.
It's time for manufacturers to tell Microsoft "Look, we do this on our terms. If you want to cooperate on our terms, fine. If not, then take your fucking ball and go home!"
Seriously, there's a great alternative out there. Microsoft is, for the first time in a very long time, in a position not as the big bully, but as the kid trying to get popular. Let's see how they manage to cope with this...
systemd is not an init system. It's a GNU replacement.
That is an abuse of power gained through their monopoly. They know users would feel more comfortable with Windows so companies would like to use it so they're offering it at a low price but forcing companies to hold back on innovation.
If this is true then people should complain to their governments. I'm sure we can count on the US gov doing nothing about it but hopefully the EU will put a stop to that at least happening over here.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Microsoft OTOH is caught in a dead end. The only chance I can see for them to be relevant 20 years from now is a gamble and not at favorable odds. They need to loose WGA, meaningless product definition, and all the other annoying and ineffective marketing tricks and focus their considerable talents on building the best servers and desktop systems they possibly can. They have lost over a decade since their last user oriented release (Windows 95) and will already be playing catch up in many areas.
Yes, they will leave money on the table short term. But if they can get their act together, they may have an expanding base of happy and enthusiastic customers ten years from now. If they don't do that, they are doomed to lose out to Apple, Open Source, and Google who do have such a base.
BTW, I just had to deal with a series of hardware and software meltdowns that required getting both a Windows XP and a Linux PC up with just basic install software and a backup of the old applications. Neither operation was fun, but Windows was especially awful -- a sort of ongoing horror show of stupid and arbitrary constraints on what could be done and how it could be done. The only place where Windows was clearly superior was in installation of a network printer. And eventually CUPS will be usable by mere mortals, so Windows won't even have that to brag about.
To sum it up. Windows and Open Source both have a long way to go. Open Source looks to be chugging along. Windows is lost in a horrendous swamp. It isn't hard to see the eventual outcome.
You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
Money is the root of all evil?
The rationale is Microsoft's. Hasn't their not-being-a-player in a certain market always been their modus operandi? OS, Office suites, Servers, Web browser, Music services, Music players, etc. Generally, they aren't happy UNTIL they satisfy their "Me too!" wants. (Which tends to muck up already well functioning markets.)
Why can't Microsoft admit that their to slow and lumbering to react to this unexpected trend. Microsoft thought computers would keep getting bigger and faster, not smaller and mobile. They misjudged half a decade ago and now have nothing to offer.
from TFA... ... charge PC makers US$26 (£13) for Windows XP Home Edition for ULPCs... ... can get a discount of as much as $10 off those prices...
imagine that, Windows XP Home is worth as little as $16 USD.
PC makers should not get such deep discounts for Windows; it's no wonder Microsoft is able to convince them all to bundle it with virtually every new PC sold. Even if they may not be illegally strong-arming manufacturers into including Windows on all PCs anymore, the price too low and it has the same effect anyway.
but dictating what HARDWARE you can load it onto is ridiculous.. yes, Apple does the same thing, but they're ALSO the hardware provider.. Microsoft does not make laptops or PC's; or anything more significant for them than a lousy keyboard or mouse.
if people want Windows XP because Vista sucks, then shit.. Microsoft should just RECALL Vista completely (they've basically admitted that its bad... very bad), chuck it in the trash and start over... not tell people they can have it but only on sucky-slow laptops with itty-bitty screens. the ONLY reason XP is being obsoleted is because Microsoft says it is so they can sell Windows, again, to 100's of millions of users.
Your trolling attempt is lame. You'll have to flame a lot better to get our rage. Try it again.
Linux supporters have to make up their own marketing ploys. The trouble is, anyone technical enough to want to market Linux is probably not the marketing type.
Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
Microsoft could have easily enforced this limitation in their software. Refuse to run at a resolution over 800x600, or recognize any space on a hard drive in excess of 80GB. They didn't have to try and lock the hardware down.
That's a good question. Actually, they could have just reused Windows XP Starter Edition for this. That version already limits the screen resolution, amount of ram and disk space, and refuses to run on certain processors.
Windo$ got its start by selling cheap, fifty dollars for win95 back in 95, and playing games. Lots of games. It takes a good machine to play games now. Microsoft does not want to have done to them what they did to IBM and the rest of the PC industry. By limiting the capabilities of these machines, they will limit the appeal of them. Make no mistake, poor people who would be the largest consumers of these machines (duh cheap machine..poor customer..equals a match) would have as their primary motivation to buy them their want of a gaming machine. Just like the big businessmen..and office 'Dilberts' who bought the original win95 and then bought games to play them that came with a 'boss key' that displayed an imitation spreadsheet to mollify bosses that sometimes 'shoulder surfed' on them while they were supposed to be working. Not able to play games, the machines would languish and probably end up as forgotten paperweights in the corners of classrooms like old Compaqs in the late 90's. That is probably the best that micro$ could hope for as it tries frantically to derail the rise of linux in the small countries of the third world. The way to put more linux out there is to make good games that would interest Africans, for instance, available on them. Africans would probably like a rugged, cheap, windup to charge the battery device that takes low current. They would not mind if the screen was not bright, or even not huge. It just has to work at night or in low light when most folks are off work for the day. It would'nt have to have the latest and not so greatest crapware games in the world. The best games are the most playable games, and games like ID software's Doom II and the late Pumpkin Software's Warzone 2100 are among the best the industry has ever produced along with the late tragically absorbed Westwood's hit 'Red Alert' and Auran's 'Dark Reign'. The old non cartel Blizzard's 'Warcraft' allowed three users before demanding another CD. All these games will play well in Africa on simple hardware. The best OS for them is Linux with Wine or VMWAre to limit crashes for which windows is legendary, and to limit microsoft spying. This from the African's point of view of limited funds, rugged environments, lack of dependable utilities, etc, would be the most desirable traits he would want in a machine for himself and his family. Good switches under a protective cover for keyboards, ruggedized displays, and CD drives with good manusl mechanical closures when motorized ejection systems fail, and good sealing systems against the inevitable sand, dust, occasional moisture, and insects would be a must. These are not items high on the shopping list of Americans like 'Hannah Montana' who have all the money they want and live in luxury. These items are what those who must work hard to live on the edge of their very existance absolutely must have when considering the expenditure of what to them is over five years of wages for one lump of plastic.
Micro$ is only looking for preservation of its monopoly on the backs of and on the blood of the poor peopls of the world.
Yes, but Linux dominates the ULPC market, and that has Microsoft's attention.
http://www.mhall119.com
Jesus Christ... Between this and the alleged URL blocking, both happening this week, next to all the other shit they've racked up till then, I really hope that the EU is going to sue the living crap out of Microsoft.
No, the real reason is to try to stem the numbers of people getting exposure to Linux and finding out that it is quite capable of doing the job for a fraction of the Micro$oft cost.
And to add to it, since Vista is too fat to fit they are going to be using the soon to be discontinued XP base to do it. Go figure.
Moore's Law will kill them over this. A year from now 160GB drives will cost what 80GB cost today, and if this manufacturer isn't producing larger, higher resolution screen laptops at the same price, someone else will be doing it and eating their lunch.
A year from now these machines will happily run Vista, so Microsoft don't have anything to worry about there.
...appears to be to install Windows, thereby converting said PC into a high cost unit.
Have gnu, will travel.
The rule was, never release a new platform that won't run the latest version of Microsoft's products. ASUS broke the rule and can't make their new product fast enough. Their new deal with Microsoft just highlights that if you break the rules and succeed, you get new rules.
Maybe ASUS will take the money and run, Maybe they'll deprecate their Linux offerings and move millions of XP Home eee machines and be happy. I don't think so, but that could happen.
It doesn't matter. If ASUS won't break the rules somebody else on their way up will. This whole scene will play out over and over. Marketing deals cannot halt innovation because it's the innovators that bring the interesting new products that catch our attention and gain the most enthusiastic early adopters.
Help stamp out iliturcy.
This is great. Microsoft, once again, chasing a market that they failed to recognize early on. It's even sweeter that this lower end laptop market is dominated by F/OSS.
SD
Ten years ago worrying about gasoline prices wasn't a big deal..but the prius and insight hit the market, and now folks are dumping their SUVs. Now all the majors are coming out with hybrids and plug in hybrids are closer and all electrics will be coming as well. Ten years once a credible decent product made the first sale. Stuff changes man. MS has made hundreds of billions, but it isn't carved in stone they always will. Open source just keeps getting better and better, and I am not reading too many headlines about throngs of people going on and on how much they really appreciate the vista upgrade. The Asus eeepc was the first serious game changer, just like the ipod was. There were computers before, and music players, but sometimes all the details come together and whammo, a runaway hit. Lower cost light weight/portable hardware combined with free linyx is a dang good combination. MS is *lucky* they have XP to fall back on right now, and even then people are going to be changing. Inevitable, the younger folks want it, they become the bosses of tomorrow.
The guys who take the decisions have huge share packages. Do you really think they'll do anything that reflects reality and thus nuke their potential retirement?
It's already hard enough work to keep shareholders from bolting after the Vista debacle, the EU fine (which IMHO will get worse as a problem) and the ISO farce which will come back to haunt them. The amount of BS that is required to drown out reality is enough work as it is without someone trying to be realistic about their prospects as well..
[yes, I'm being sarcastic, but MS *is* taking huge hits, whatever spin they put on it. To have to report a loss *after* they had several months to massage the figures with creative accounting is a *very* bad sign]
Insert
... it is a "good for nothing" OS anyhow.
INSERT INTO comment VALUE('Doh!') WHERE user='you';
These hardware restrictions, particularly the ban on touchscreens, lead me to suspect that what MS is really trying to protect, without totally giving the new tiny-cheap-laptop field to Linux, is the UMPC. Remember, "UMPC" doesn't just mean "little laptop". UMPCs were supposed to be a bold new category, remember all the "Origami" hype? Essentially, the vision of small, portable computing that MS specced out was that of fairly powerful devices, with touch screens required and keyboards optional, running straight Windows Vista and accompanying software, with a touch screen interface slapped on top. Unfortunately for them, the "fairly powerful" requirement made UMPCs surprisingly expensive and made their battery life suck pitifully, without actually making Vista run all that well.
The first few versions utterly sucking is something that MS is used to, so there was reason to believe that they would work this one out as well. Costs would gradually go down, chips would get less power hungry, and so on, and the UMPC would eventually worm its way in. Then the eeePC and friends show up(arguably, the tradition of tiny laptops goes back a long way, various PC makers have been pumping them out for years, although in small quantities and at high costs, and the OLPC project can be said to have spurred cheap, small laptops; but the eeePC was the first to hit the western mass market). Compared to the UMPC, the eeePC and similar are pretty boring tech. Just normal laptops; but smaller. Thing is, this is one of those situations where modest ambitions are a real blessing. UMPC goals required hardware that was either unavailable or too expensive. eeePC goals required nothing more than the willingness to slap together parts that are already cheap and common. Even if the eeePC and its ilk were all running XP from the get-go, they would still be a kick in the teeth for the UMPC. I doubt that the category is dead; but the road to acceptance, particularly for consumer level applications, became much steeper and much rockier with the advent of the eeePC and similar. The fact that Linux is showing up for the party is adding insult to injury.
I'm thinking that the hardware restrictions serve a few purposes:
Keep a clear distinction between UMPC(now positioned as "premium") and the teeny laptop("budget"). Teeny laptops kill UMPCs at being cheap; but MS hopes, at least, to preserve certain features as UMPC only.
Keep Linux from creeping upward. Obviously, MS doesn't like any machines not running Windows; but they would rather preserve a "linux=cheap gadget/Windows=real computer" distinction than not. By not allowing high end features to creep in(or, at least, forcing OEMs to make more hardware variants if they do), MS can keep eee type boxes from gradually shading into full computers or "premium" small computers.
I wonder why MS is specifically refusing touch screens on this new hardware class. Could it be they're spooked by the iPhone and are busy at work cloning its interface for a different 'new' class of hardware?
Believe me. Microsoft does not want to be in the EeePC market. They're there to thwart Linux - plain and simple.
Posted from my Android phone. Oh, I can change this? There, that's better...
Legal media playback. Xandros and Linspire pay the price so that DVDs and MP3s play out of the box legally anyplace. Yes, I know the eeepc doesn't have an optical drive, but to answer your question, those two distros have gone the furthest to make an alternative to windows and mac osx for cheaper (a consumer desktop that works), covering all the bases. Most of the other distros either ship with the stuff needed and hope they don't get nailed in the law courts, or ship with it crippled a little then you have to go to some dodgy repository hosted "someplace" and download what you need. That's my best guess anyway, that and they both really try for OEM sales and most of the others don't, although ubuntu is making some inroads at dell obviously, even though the top of the page still "recommends vista!" when you go look at a linux preload from them.
Analyst IDC's forecast is more modest: On Thursday it said it expects ULPC sales to hit 9 million units by 2012, up from 500,000 last year. Again I bolded.
a)Say M$ is successful and is able to sell XP on every second of those ULPC's. That is a lot of PC's running Linux.
b)Now if a gaming developer manages to develop a high quality game that (1) runs on Linux and Windows and(2) runs on their lower specifications it would make a killing in the market.
c)If they develop a high quality inter platform game for these ulpc's, they could pitch their product to the vendors of these ulpc's to include as pre-installed, and make revenue from game related content, and maybe even from the inclusion of these games.
Why is this a good idea?
i) By conservative estimates there will be 9Million of these units sold by 2012. That is four years from now. WinXP will be very outdated by then, so MS will either need to ship a competitive modern OS for these, or Linux will be the dominant OS, so beginning a cross-platform development process makes sense. At best M$ will be able to gain 50% of the market.
ii) 9Million units are a lot. This is a lucrative gaming market. The Playstation (the PSP) and Nintendo (the DS) offerings have shown that mobile gaming is alive. Preparing a product for the boom to come makes sense, as these products become cheaper they will continue selling well.
iii) A possible sales pitch to the makers of these products is this: A range of games for these devices will radically expand the market. Parents will feel better about buying their children a portable productivity tool that also plays games as opposed to buying a dedicated entertainment device. Adult gamers will also spend money on a combined device rather than having to buy two separate devices.
iv) The hardware specifications also lend these devices to a satisfying gaming experience. Many of them have wireless networking functionality, internet access will soon be a given, and they come with lots of processor power and RAM. Graphics support might be problematic in the short term, so 3d games that are graphics intensive might pose a problem for now. MMORG, FPS, Racing and strategy games will all be popular on these devices.
v) Since the ULPC is in essence a device based on x86 compatible architecture it will be easy to port games to the traditional gaming PC, making it easy to for once effectively bridge the divide between mobile and home-based gaming. The internet will make it possible for both to play games online against each other.
In closing, there is a lucrative, largely untapped Linux (and windows) market for the gaming industry. If effort is made to develop a range of games for these devices it will mean revenue over a very long term. If extra effort is put into developing the business model properly a gaming developer might be the first to offer a game that can be played transparently on the ULPC, the PC and the Laptop. This will be a first, and good firsts make money.
Money is a motivator, and if you develop for the ULPC linux market you are also by default developing for the Linux desktop and notebook market, hence you will have broken into not only a wide market of mobile gaming, you will have broken into the linux gaming market, and you will not only be a market leader, you will essentially be the market owner on most common platforms today and tomorrow.
I would be surprised if a gaming developer isn't already working towards this goal.
Seven Days with Ubuntu Unity
The real news here is that M$ is taking Linux seriously enough to be worth fighting.
Albeit I'm irked that the ASUS eee has 2GB and a flash card slot for another 4GB which is a tad too small. But how is the size of a hard drive relevant to the OS? Is Windows SO LARGE that you need more than 80GB to house it now?
See they're not talking about LOW PRICE laptops, they're talking about LOW PERFORMANCE laptops. My used Thinkpad T-40 absolutely qualifies as a low price laptop and it's been running XP Pro for years w/o any problem (and it even has an 80GB drive) but it would be unusuable with a 10 inch screen.
Actually, most UMPCs run XP or Linux - and all of the decent ones. Many aren't that expensive... not as cheap as the eee, but comparable to a conventional budget laptop. And the Raon Everun gets 4 to 5 hours with real-life use... double the battery life of the eee. With the extended battery, it gets up to 11 hours. Unlike the eee, it's barely warm to the touch and is nearly silent. Unfortunately, the Geode processor is a bit underpowered (hopefully there'll be an Atom version) and the unique hardware is not yet supported under Linux.
Low cost computers, as ultra portable PCs like Eee and $300 desktop, are a new market segment. These computers can run 99% of the things that a higher cost computer can do. All work of an office can be done with them, applications like wordprocessing, spreadsheet, inventory, accounting, Internet browsing, email, etc.
Because the ultraportable computers are in an intermediate space between pocket PCs and notebooks, a new universe of applications for them is opened that are not adequate for pocket PCs (because are too small, has very tinny screen size, and are too low powered), and are not adequate for notebooks (very big size, weight, cost, etc).
Microsoft has always designed his products so that they consume more and more resources, causing a planned obsolescence so that people have move to more powerful computers. Windows Vista is the last example of this. Nevertheless Vista was a failure, since people do not see its advantages, since they can do all of they work with Windows XP. Whereas Microsoft goes in that direction (more and more powerful computers), it appears an opposite market (ultraportable computers). This market will become a very popular format.
Microsoft was not prepared for this, and now they must use Windows XP and its monopolistic policies to try to restrain Linux in these small computers.
See "Cheap computers or powerfull computers?" (spanish) at:
http://www.kriptopolis.org/ordenadores-baratos-vs-ordenadores-potentes
Is that the French version of OLPC?
Fnord.
So we will have ULCPC without touch screens and Windows XP and, in the other side, ULCPC with touch screens and Linux...
An artificial limited ULCPC with a low featured Windows XP vs. a full featured ULCPC with Linux.
Microsoft removed functionality from several releases of their Windows CE handheld software ... before Pocket PC there were Windows CE powered clamshells that would have been quite competitive with the EeePC, but the Pocket PC didn't come in a clamshell form factor and they removed multi-level menus and multiple windows. Why? Well, they were pushing for the Tablet PC to take over that part of the market and it was pretty obvious to us at the Pocket PC Wireless and Beyond marketing conference in 2000 that they didn't want the Pocket PC to become a notebook replacement.
Well, now they're stuck, they don't have a platform that's competitive with Linux at the low end. I suspect this will turn out to be a stopgap until they can come up with a new "entry level" platform, perhaps with limitations like their third-world-Windows, based on Windows PE or Windows 7, or maybe even bringing back the clamshell version of Windows CE.
...They have a less than 2% share of the market. There isn't a company in the history of mankind which needs to focus it's business decisions based on what a competitor with less than 2% of the market is doing... especially when that company's various products hold about 94% of the market. But a long, long time ago, Mozilla Firefox had less than 2% share of the market, and Microsoft didn't need to focus on it, specially when it holded about 97% of the Internet browsing market with Internet Explorer 6...This isn't so much about Linux, as it is about MS recognizing that if some OS other than their's is the default OS on the low end PC's, it is only a matter of time until it starts to displace MS OS's further up the price point chain.
Or to put it another way, no Linux is not currently a competitor for MS OS's, but if Linux ever reaches 20% of the market, MS is finished (unless they come up with a completely new business model). Apple is a competitor, but Apple does not threaten MS's business model.
The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
... a beowulf cluster of these!
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Close, it's Ultra Low-cost PC. I took the acronym from the linked article.
http://www.mhall119.com
I was being silly.
Fnord.
It seems the mods have yet passed you by, but this was one of the most insightful things I've read in a good while.
Let us not become the evil that we deplore.
The problem is the French laptop manufacturers don't have a word for entrepreneur.
Domestic spying is now "Benign Information Gathering"
Who do I write in the EU to get an injunction?
infocomp@cec.eu.int
There are three types of people: those who don't care what OS is on their machine, those that don't care as long as it is not by Microsoft, and those that do not care as long as it is "as simple as Microsoft". For the first two a linux pc would be fine. For the third, linux will never do.
But give them a choice between a crippled XP machine and a noncrippled ReactOS machine and they will jump at the chance to use ReactOS.
I would love to be a fly on the wall when Bal r and Gates hear for the first time that some company is coming out with a minilaptop with ReactOS on it.
I've seen all sorts of stuff about 'camels nose' and 'keep Linux out' and so on. This has got nothing to do with half a million low-end computers running Linux. Microsoft knows they are beaten here. They may be a little worried about people putting Linux on their bigger machines, true, but thats not what scares the living crap out of microsoft right now. No. Linux on small machines, migrating to bigger ones isn't the fear dear reader. Not by a long shot. What scares the hell out of microsoft is cloud computing. All the user needs is a web browser and an email client. Firefox and Thunderbird are in, run well and are small. In some European markets, Firefox has 48% of the total market (and rising). Re-read that. If you think I misplaced a decimal, crack your head against the wall. Even in large European countries like Germany, Firefox has more than 30%. In Italy its more than 40%. Firefox isn't exactly 'little' anymore. And with cloud computing, Google feeds the applications. You don't need a big box when your server is online. A small box can cover it. A small, nimble box running Linux is a boon to the customer. Free Software means Free Market. This is a bitch to the microsoft monopoly. Free software upgrades where you only have to click on a button and have all the magic happen instantly (ok, always less than 2 minutes) per day. It covers all software upgrades and security fixes. Granny and a drooling moron could both get it right. Some of the really kewel applications are online, (and all of them run Linux). They include, Facebook (Linux powered, always), YouTube (Linux powered, always), Google (Linux powered, always), EBay (Linux powered, always), Amazon (Linux powered, always), and even *ahem* Slashdot (apparently they use Linux too). This scares the bejisus out of microsoft. Google scares them. Linux is a cancer. (oh, BTW, Google sponsors the Google Summer-of-Code). Firefox gets bags of ad revenue from Google too. Google hardware would break the camels back. Expect it soon. With the cabal between microsoft and the hardware vendors broken, their monopoly is crushed. Don't think that there aren't a giant whack of really skilled engineers over at Google that could cover it all nicely (remember the people powering the internet search stuff...). What time is it, 2008? Right on schedule.
"First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win."
I guess this is the "they fight you" bit.
Rather than place a 10-minute phone call to me to ask me how to install the program, he called MS's activation phone number and gave them his credit card number so he could keep his XP install. How long did that phone call take? And the install? And the updates? And booting the computer into XP every day for work and waiting for all the applications to load?
This guy spent time and money to avoid what can only be seen as the technically simpler solution because to do otherwise would have taken him out of his comfort zone. That eeepc was purchased for one reason only: to run that single program, and the program was available to run on windows xp or linux.
It's plain silly, but this is what so many people do in similar situations; this is how they actually think and solve problems.
A second example, a guy in another office (different employer) needed a new computer to replace his ailing XP machine. It was decided a Mac would suit the needs of the station and one was purchased. This guy was so frustrated by the fact that his new mac wouldn't run his calendar creator that he was ready to trade his new 20" imac for the XP celeron in the next office. I stepped in and with approved funds helped him purchase and install Parallels so he could install his calendar creator. Had he had access to an XP disc and the knowledge to run Boot Camp, I wouldn't have had the chance.
db
I am literally 3000 tokens away from the chaotic crossbow --Stephen
so in your opinion it will look like this then?
1 year from now
vista ulpc = $x + $200
linux uplc = $x
xp ulps = $.5x + ~$20 (reduced specs)
linux ulpc lite = $.5x (reduced specs)
Yes they will have something to worry about. What you meant to say is "a $400 UMPC will be able to run Windows Vista."
As it turns out. That would also mean there will be a $250.00 or $300.00 machine with about the same specs as now.
Remember, people are snapping these things up right now with a $400.00 price tag. There are plenty of people who can not justify getting one of these at $400.00 but at $250.00 they will go for it.
Microsoft can't close that door. If someone can knock the price down and improve performance even more by moving to something that is NOT x86 compatible. Microsoft is about to feel a swift kick to their family jewels.
vi +
Once again, Microsoft demonstrates that they cannot compete with technical excellence--their only chance is to win by cheating...
"Not an actor, but he plays one on TV."
Attila Dimedici wrote:
I agree that Linux has the potential to be a significant threat to Microsoft. But I think that threat will manifest itself over the long term, rather than with Linux quickly taking over the desktop. Simply put, over time some users give Linux a try and like it.
Besides the low-end market, one place where I can see Linux making a significant headway in the future are with "obsoleted by MS" computers. Specifically, computers that are: (1) usable with current Linux distributions, (2) can run the previous version of Windows, but (3) can't run the most recent version of Windows. Rather than purchase a new computer, some users might opt to try Linux as a low-cost way to get more usable life out of their current PC when Windows software for their version of Windows becomes difficult to find.
Whatever outcomes, it's the users that will be the final winner.
Ultra low cost PC benefits those who can't afford PC, and be it running on the Linux OS or the Windoze OS, ultimately it'd be the users who would be benefited.
It's a bright day after all !!
Muchas Gracias, Señor Edward Snowden !
Yes. It appears to me to limit the choice of the customer.
I cannot see how this can be construed as an example of a free market in operation.
Surely what is going on here is that the dominant OS producer and the main retailers are in collusion to prevent the customer from having the choice which is the very essence of a free market.
When we stop and ask what is the basis of the legitimation of Microsoft's vast wealth and market power we are invariably told by free market enthusiasts that it comes down to their success on the free market. What is the free market? Well, each member of society is free to choose what he wants. What he chooses, given freedom, just is what he prefers. So long as the market remains free, the business which most efficiently satisfies consumer preference will succeed. In this way, the free market assures the most efficient distribution of resources and rewards those who satisfy consumer demand.
But in this case it seems very clear that resources are not being most efficiently distributed; the market is not free, but rather huge political and monopoly power is being used to distort the competitiveness of the market, misinform the consumer and deny him the choice upon which the very existence of his preference is predicated.
A defense of the free market theory might suggest that in the long run this MS strategy will fail. Perhaps, as some have suggested, this will open the way for a new entrant to compete with MS and the incumbent retailers for the demand for ULCPCs with growning specs and OSS. That may yet be, but not if history is any judge. From the outset MS has used information assymmetry and brand marketing to persuade people to buy what, left to their own devices, they would not. The result has been a great diminution in the legitimate public interest for the benefit of private profit. The market, so far, does not seem to have done what it says on the tin.
An alternative defense might be that this collusion and brand marketing and perhaps even the use of monopoly power are themselves features of a free market. After all, why should the government regulate these deals. Traders should be free to enter into them. And in the long run if the incumbent does not satisfy demand he will be beaten by a new entrant who does.
The problem with this very attractive idea, however, is that it shows little sign of happening in practice. Contrariwise, what I see are new entrants undercutting the competition on price initially in while still trying to establish their brand reputation, but subsequently recognizing their common interest with the competition once that reputation is established. After all, in a classic prisoner's dilemma, why hurt yourself when you can all be so well-off together. Hence, once established, oligopoly prevails, even with multiple "competitors". How else can you explain retailers and OEMs agreeing to this contract?
I conclude that the problem here is not Microsoft per se, but the system of state-corporate capitalism in which we choose to live and which gives corporations this huge power over our lives. If the market were genuinely free Microsoft would soon collapse, and most of the rest of the economy with it. Instead, banks must be bailed out, public investment handed over for private profit, and the likes of Microsoft allowed to use contingent political and economic influence evade court rulings, externalize their costs, ruthlessly undermine the competition from free software and rob the public of its freedom.
Rant over. Thanks for reading.
Microsoft are extremely good at coming from behind. They are a hunter rather than a racer.
WYSIWIG, but what you see might not be what you need
As it turns out. That would also mean there will be a $250.00 or $300.00 machine with about the same specs as now.
What do you base this on ? Because it's certainly not the typical pattern that computing hardware pricing follows. Power at a given price point increases far, far faster - and more frequently - than price points decrease.
The thing everyone seems to be missing is this. Currently these machines don't quite have enough "oomph" to be the one machine the average person needs. They're toys for geeks.
However, with the power they'll have in 6-12 months, they will quite feasibly be the only computer the average person needs. The big disadvantages - screen and keyboard - will be nullified by a cheap docking station that people can just snap their "UMPC" into and out of in a second. It's going to be like an ipod - get home and drop it into the "dock", rip it out as you run out the door.
And most of them are going to be sold running Vista.
Microsoft can't close that door. If someone can knock the price down and improve performance even more by moving to something that is NOT x86 compatible. Microsoft is about to feel a swift kick to their family jewels.
No chance. A non-x86 machine isn't going to run the software most people want to run.
so in your opinion it will look like this then?
No.
The $400ish price point is going to be around for a good year or two. The amount of power available at this price will increase, but the price will not decrease (at least not significantly).
This has been the consistent pattern with computer hardware for the last couple of decades. I'm not sure why anyone thinks it's suddenly going to change.
Further, a "reduced spec" machine will be, like it is today, little more than a toy. With the US (and a fair chunk of the world) heading into a recession, the market for toys is going to dry up pretty quickly.
"Ah, but can a Beowulf cluster of these babies run Vista?"
i ate crayons when i was a kid and now i have two braincells and the blue ones taste nicer
Microsoft has 4 computer enemies.
1. Ultraportable, low cost and low powered computers (like original Asus Eee)
2. Low cost basic notebooks (with small solid state disk, and no DVD). This notebooks will have screen, keyboard, a little amount of RAM, a low cost energy efficient CPU, a solid state disk, and many ports like USB, NET, etc.
3. Basic (less than $300) desktop computers (Today, they can run 100% of SOHO applications).
4. Multiseat computers. In order to use a single computer to serve many users simultaneously. Ultra low cost computing, and big energy saver.
These computers are the 4 Linux allies.
Microsoft has been extremely good at comming from behind. They are a hunter...
But today, with Windows Vista (the fattest operating system ever made), the obese hunter can't work very well.
So the hunter has to return to home to take his old arquebus (windows XP) to hunt the small and extremely dangerous mosquito (Asus Eee PC).
College-Pages.com - Online Colleges, Degrees, and Programs
Joe sixpack is not concerned what instruction set is in his DVD player or Microwave Oven. The UMPC is not a PC. It is a quick boot, pocket sized device that can view web pages and in a pinch edit documents. So end users don't expect to run PC Software on it.
The benchmark for good enough, is something that feels fairly snappy and is able to video cam, view web pages, play audio and full screen video with at least a resolution of 800x640. As long as people can stand the keyboard, touch pad and the quality/size of the display, it will sell.
There is one reason we did not have these things 5 years ago. The sub $400 hardware was not good enough. Now it is. The "good enough" mark is not moving any time soon. People are not expecting the speed to render video or do speech recognition. In this case to upper end of the limit being hardware performance continues to rise. The lower end. Which is what users are expecting as a computing experience. Is not moving upward any longer.
If good enough can be done for $300, then people will buy it. If good enough can be done for $250, then people will buy it. If good enough can be done for $100, people will buy it.
What people will not buy, is a sub $400.00 device where the Microsoft Tax is such a huge proportion of the cost it is not worth it. If there was a DVD player for $50.00 and one for $450 and the only difference is the one for $450 comes with a license for Windows Vista. Guess which one is going to sell?
This is going to become more pronounced as time goes on. Microsoft does not have a free or almost free option for the sub $400 market.
As for the dock. I agree with you 100% there. My daughter is going off to college in September of 2009. I figure a UMPC with a dock will do just fine. What more does she need? She keeps her music on her iPod. Even a November 2007 sub $400 UMPC will let her video cam, watch full motion video, view web pages and edit basic word documents.
I am expecting that by August 2009 that "good enough" hardware will be in the $250-$275 price range with 1024x768 resolution (1280x800 when docked). This way if she loses it or it gets broke, I can buy her another one. I want a cheap throw away appliance.
This trend is going to continue to drive prices down. I don't think x86 compatibility will matter. Linux fills this space just fine. For those that want a UMPC that does more. Heck just pay an extra $25. All of the Linux apps will run on ANY hardware the UMPC does, no matter the instruction set.
Micorosoft has chosen to limit themself to two instruction sets x86 x86-64. Microsoft has chosen to write such a tangle of code that maintains compatibility with legacy software. It expects that Moores Law will always be true and deliver more powerful hardware to compensate for the cruft.
Here is a scary thought for Microsoft. Besides being instruction set agnostic. Linux can continue to be optimized to give better performance on even more meager hardware.
vi +
Back in the days (early 80's)when Microsoft was a REAL company, competing in a free market, Programming languages were what it did, and did well.
Operating systems came later - The various DOS's (MS-DOS, PC-DOS, DR-DOS) were all pretty much interchangeable, and it was only really with MS Windows 3.0 that a differentiation appeared. Windows 1.0 was a joke and 2.0-086 was only a bit better.
And the application software was even later on - I used word for windows 1.0 and it sucked, even by the standards of the time. it was the 97 release that started to dominate
So even twenty+ years on, its the development tools that are built on a pretty solid foundation, both conceptually and (I suspect) in the code base, everything else is built on an indifferent (at best) legacy. It still shows
Joe sixpack is not concerned what instruction set is in his DVD player or Microwave Oven.
Joe sixpack isn't trying to use his DVD player or microwave oven to browse the web, pull pictures off his digital camera or write letters to mum, either.
The UMPC is not a PC. It is a quick boot, pocket sized device that can view web pages and in a pinch edit documents. So end users don't expect to run PC Software on it.
The UMPC is a _laptop_. As such, people will expect it to be able to do everything the laptop they own today does. Which is, for all intents and purposes, run x86 code. The average customer is not the geek who wants multiple computers for toys.
No normal person wants multiple computers if they can avoid it. Multiple computers are a pain in the arse. Just like multiple mobile phones, music players, and the like.
The benchmark for good enough, is something that feels fairly snappy and is able to video cam, view web pages, play audio and full screen video with at least a resolution of 800x640. As long as people can stand the keyboard, touch pad and the quality/size of the display, it will sell.
I am curious where you're getting your idea of "good enough" from. Because by your measure "good enough" PCs were around back in about 1998, yet strangely people have been snapping up better machines since then in earnest.
The lower end. Which is what users are expecting as a computing experience. Is not moving upward any longer.
Of course it is. Has been for years. And in the next 6-12 months its going to move up to meet Vista's needs (which isn't much further anyway). What doesn't move downward often is price points - and this new US$400ish price point isn't going downwards any time soon.
Here's the crux of the issue you (and many others) seem to be having the most trouble with: hardware prices at the bottom end of the price range do not scale down in the same way they scale up (and similarly at the top end). Just because, in 6-9 months, you'll be able to buy a dual core, 1.6Ghz, 2G RAM UMPC for $400 does *NOT* mean that for $200 you'll be able to buy a machine with half the power (ie: today's Eee PC and equivalents). You might be able to get a machine half as powerful for $300 - $350, if you're lucky enough that anyone sells them - at which point buying the more powerful and more useful machine is an easy choice.
What people will not buy, is a sub $400.00 device where the Microsoft Tax is such a huge proportion of the cost it is not worth it. If there was a DVD player for $50.00 and one for $450 and the only difference is the one for $450 comes with a license for Windows Vista. Guess which one is going to sell?
The "Microsoft Tax" is a non-argument. Always has been. I don't know why anyone bothers to even bring it up. Microsoft can and will sell Vista to OEMs for whatever price is necessary. If they have to "create" a special "UMPC OEM" license at $10/copy, they will.
I am expecting that by August 2009 that "good enough" hardware will be in the $250-$275 price range with 1024x768 resolution (1280x800 when docked). This way if she loses it or it gets broke, I can buy her another one. I want a cheap throw away appliance.
Today's UMPCs aren't "good enough". They're not "good enough" because they're not capable of being the typical person's only computer.
Your average UMPC in August 2009 is going to be $350-$400, have a 9-10" screen @ 1280x720, dual cores @ 1.2-1.6Ghz, 2G (with 4G a cheap and obvious upgrade) of RAM and be sold running Vista. This is the point at which their popularity is really going to explode because this is the point at which it will be quite feasible for a UMPC to be the average person's only computer.
This trend is going to continue to drive prices down. I don't think x86 compatibility will matter. Linux fills this space just fine. For those that want a UMPC that does more. Heck just pay an extra $25. All of the Linux apps
Things will get worse if Microsoft gets away with this. Vendors have agreed to limit their lines, this weakens their position considerably because they will be investing in things the Soft considers harmless. If it's not harmless enough, they can demand production quotas and further restrictions.
I wonder what they offered besides XP? It's not like Microsoft has a winner on its hands with Vista, aka the OS 90% of people do not want.
Bow down to Lord Balmer
I don't expect that if computing power doubles that a system that was $600.00 would now be a $300.00 system. However, four years ago Dell pushed the low end on a PC from $600.00 to $500.00. It is now down to $350 (without a monitor). Which puts it in the $450-$475 range. The hold up on the price drop right now is flat panels are not moving below $125.00.
I think the UMPC market is not a fluke. More companies are coming on board making systems. I am looking forward to sub $300.00 systems.
An iPod does everything a laptop does. Yet people own both. If you don't have money for both, the iPod is cooler. I think the UMPC is heading that way. If you could have both you would, but if not, you would take the UMPC because of the price point.
I will either be right and sending my daughter off to college with a UMPC for under $300.00. Or she gets a $500 laptop and I swear to her that I will kick her butt if she breaks it.
vi +
However, four years ago Dell pushed the low end on a PC from $600.00 to $500.00. It is now down to $350 (without a monitor). Which puts it in the $450-$475 range. The hold up on the price drop right now is flat panels are not moving below $125.00.
My point exactly. In four years, the price has dropped ~40%. However, the power (/disk space, etc) has increased by a factor of ~5x.
An iPod does everything a laptop does.
Say what ? An iPod has barely a fraction the functionality of even a barebones laptop like the Eee (with that said, there are things it does better, like portability).
I will either be right and sending my daughter off to college with a UMPC for under $300.00. Or she gets a $500 laptop and I swear to her that I will kick her butt if she breaks it.
I predict you'll see the kind of $300 machines you're talking about around the beginning of 2010 (and by then they'll be dual-cores with 2-4G of RAM as well).
The iPod does everything the laptop does, plus it is a) smaller b) better battery life c) costs another $200.00.
However, kids don't go. I have a laptop why do I need an iPod. I think the UMPC could end up the same way. It overlaps what a laptop does, but the kid does not go. Hmmmm, even if it is an exta $250.00 it just duplicates part of my laptop.
Microsoft is doing damage control right now on trying to stop the UMPC. I think it is to late.
What is interesting, is that in your book, better hardware is coming. Microsofts definition of UMPC is going to hurt that. There will be a period of time where the $400.00 will be more powerful than what MS will allow XP to go on, but still not powerful enough to run VISTA. As in, dual core, but not enough RAM at $400 or enough ram but to slow of a CPU.
Some company that does not sell PC's but does mass produce consumer electronics could come along. Make bunches (maybe for China) of low cost hardware with the 10 inch dipslay, more RAM but a sub 1ghz CPU. Drop a slightly customized Ubuntu on there and really try to sell it.
If they are not a PC maker. Microsoft has no way to hurt them. They cant "lose the ability to get XP or Vista at a reduced cost". They cant lose Microsoft Advertising money.
The real question is WHEN someone does that. If it happens sooner, I think the sub $300.00 market will be hot. I think there is a sweetspot in the $200 to $300 range. As soon as someone hits it. It will be like printing money.
vi +
The iPod does everything the laptop does, plus it is a) smaller b) better battery life c) costs another $200.00.
But it doesn't because, as you note, an iPod is _smaller_. This is a fairly important criteria for something to carry your music around on (to say nothing of how much easier it is to control "on the go").
Further, there's no real disadvantage to having both a computer (be it a laptop or desktop) and an iPod. The same cannot be said for multiple computers, where one must synchronise data between the two (yes, I know there are tools to do this, but none of them are as trivially simple to setup and use - not to mention as reliable - as an iPod sync is).
What is interesting, is that in your book, better hardware is coming. Microsofts definition of UMPC is going to hurt that. There will be a period of time where the $400.00 will be more powerful than what MS will allow XP to go on, but still not powerful enough to run VISTA. As in, dual core, but not enough RAM at $400 or enough ram but to slow of a CPU.
Microsoft's hardware limits were (from memory), a ~1Ghz single-core processor and 1G RAM. There's not a lot of middle ground between that and a ~1.4Ghz dual-core and 2G RAM, which will run Vista fine.
Some company that does not sell PC's but does mass produce consumer electronics could come along. Make bunches (maybe for China) of low cost hardware with the 10 inch dipslay, more RAM but a sub 1ghz CPU. Drop a slightly customized Ubuntu on there and really try to sell it.
But then you end up with the same multiple computers problem. So you can spend (say) $250-$300 on a machine that you need to supplement with some other box (another $500-$600) and will only get "part time" use out of, or you can spend maybe $600-$700 (UMPC + "Dock" + monitor/keyboard/mouse) for a *single machine* that does everything you need to do. The latter is an easy choice.
Further, even if these low-end, cheap UMPCs appear, they are going to have some serious competition from iPhone-like mobile phones and PDAs, which genuinely will come close to doing everything the average person might use a low-end UMPC for (basically, web browsing and email).
I just can't see these super-cheap, low-end UMPCs (in the $200 - $300 price bracket you're talking about being anything except toys for a) geeks and b) rich people's children. There's just not a suitably large hole in the market spectrum of iPhones (and equivalents), PDAs, "medium UMPCs" (dual-core, 2G RAM models) and "real" laptops. This is not to say that a market doesn't exist, merely that's it's not going to be like "printing money".