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SpaceX Launch Failure Due To Timing Problem

FleaPlus writes "Private orbital spaceflight company SpaceX recently announced that last weekend's Falcon 1 rocket launch failure was caused by a collision between the first and second stage of their rocket. This was due to a timing problem, when their brand-new engine design produced residual thrust for 1.5 seconds longer than expected; they're currently working to fix the problem and launch again, perhaps as early as next month. In a recent interview with Wired, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk remarked on their efforts: "Optimism, pessimism, f-ck that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work.""

244 comments

  1. ooohhhh by gEvil+(beta) · · Score: 5, Funny

    Silly me. And here I was thinking it was due to a crashing problem...

    --
    This guy's the limit!
    1. Re:ooohhhh by Wiseazz · · Score: 5, Funny

      Well, there was the blowing up problem, followed by the gravity problem. Then, I suppose the crashing problem might have come into play at some point.

      --
      My sig sucks.
    2. Re:ooohhhh by Wiseazz · · Score: 4, Funny

      "Neither stage exploded," Musk said. "They just got a little bit cooked."

      Sorry - didn't rtfm. It was a cooking problem.
       

      --
      My sig sucks.
    3. Re:ooohhhh by Loibisch · · Score: 4, Funny

      race conditions often can lead to crashes

    4. Re:ooohhhh by elrous0 · · Score: 1

      Bah, crashing is only a problem if the deceleration involved is a rapid one.

      --
      SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
    5. Re:ooohhhh by Red+Flayer · · Score: 5, Funny

      Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

      Perhaps they need a new Chef Engineer.

      That's what they get for launching in the dessert.

      I could go on... but it's probably best if I don't.

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    6. Re:ooohhhh by gEvil+(beta) · · Score: 5, Funny

      I could go on... but it's probably best if I don't.

      Yes, I think we can all agree that your jokes were pretty tasteless.

      --
      This guy's the limit!
    7. Re:ooohhhh by vyruss000 · · Score: 3, Funny

      Yeah, I can't stomach that guy!

    8. Re:ooohhhh by UncleTogie · · Score: 5, Funny

      Yes, I think we can all agree that your jokes were pretty tasteless.

      The odds that anyone would find that funny are gastronomical...

      --
      Don't tell me to get a life. I'm a gamer; I have LOTS of lives!
    9. Re:ooohhhh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And all his salty talk isn't going to get him anywhere.

    10. Re:ooohhhh by fahrbot-bot · · Score: 1

      Perhaps they need a new Chef Engineer.

      Yes, I don't think Alton Brown would put up with these boosters. Only one uni-tasker in his kitchen (fire extinguisher).

      --
      It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
    11. Re:ooohhhh by An+ominous+Cow+art · · Score: 1

      Did all the other CEOs tell him he was daft to build a rocket in a swamp?

    12. Re:ooohhhh by Radio_active_cgb · · Score: 1

      > Perhaps they need a new Chef Engineer.

      Great Googlely Mooglely!

    13. Re:ooohhhh by Admiral_Grinder · · Score: 1

      I just happen to know the best man for the job

      "Greetings children...I'm here to put you back on schedule"

      (incase the above is removed)

    14. Re:ooohhhh by niales · · Score: 0, Redundant

      You were modded interesting instead of funny? Maybe there are less programmers on /. than I thought.

    15. Re:ooohhhh by repvik · · Score: 1

      One day lad, all this will be yours.
      What? The curtains?

    16. Re:ooohhhh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Anyone else bothered by a 1.5 second window? How about you create a different process that allows it to separate simultaneously? Ya know where they wont smash into each other?

    17. Re:ooohhhh by ktrails · · Score: 1

      I think this thread belongs in the orbituaries...

    18. Re:ooohhhh by Rei · · Score: 1

      No, but some told him he'd be daft to launch from a high-corrosion environment ;) That said, they seem to have dealt with the corrosion problems from the first flight well.

      --
      FSB hits! FSB hits! Your democracy dies. Do you want your possessions identified?
    19. Re:ooohhhh by Andrew+Kismet · · Score: 0, Redundant

      I can't stomach much more of this.

    20. Re:ooohhhh by EricTheGreen · · Score: 1

      Stop! I haven't finished digesting the first 3 puns yet. Even if they're easy to understand and fairly alimentary in nature...

    21. Re:ooohhhh by Migity · · Score: 1

      And here I thought crashing was only a problem with Windows...

    22. Re:ooohhhh by fru1tcake · · Score: 1

      The odds that anyone would find that funny are gastronomical...

      Mmmm... it's food for thought, which is good because we'll have to wait at least until next month for the next lunch.

      --
      It's not a bug, it's a lepidopter!
  2. Hell-bent by adpsimpson · · Score: 4, Funny

    As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work.

    Something tells me that perhaps he doesn't genuinely, really believe that God is his witness... :)

    --
    Is crushing a suspect's child's testicles illegal?
    John Yoo: "No, [if] the President thinks he needs to do that."
    1. Re:Hell-bent by rodney+dill · · Score: 2, Insightful

      ...and Mr. Carlson thought turkeys could fly.

      --

      Use your head, can't you, use your head,
      You're on earth, there's no cure for that
      - S. Beckett
    2. Re:Hell-bent by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hell-bent, with a blood-red "deity" as his witness? That's not God, that's Satan! Elon Musk has clearly sold his soul to the devil to win the new space race.

    3. Re:Hell-bent by rodney+dill · · Score: 5, Funny

      Yes, I know they do, my reference was to the drop of domestic birds in the TV show WKRP in Cincinnati. Someone didn't get the joke.

      --

      Use your head, can't you, use your head,
      You're on earth, there's no cure for that
      - S. Beckett
    4. Re:Hell-bent by elrous0 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      On a side note, nothing says "We're a serious business venture" quite like a CEO who rants and uses phrases like "fuck that" in interviews. Perhaps the rocket stages aren't the only thing that can't hold back when it counts.

      --
      SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
    5. Re:Hell-bent by MightyYar · · Score: 2, Funny

      Maybe it's just God's time of month, ever think of that?

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    6. Re:Hell-bent by nschubach · · Score: 1

      Or maybe God is Satan :p

      Think about it... the most loving thing in the world who would use plagues, floods, fear and martyrs for his cause? Seriously?

      --
      Every time I start to have faith in humanity, I ruin it by driving to work between 7 and 8 am.
    7. Re:Hell-bent by Chris+Pimlott · · Score: 4, Insightful

      This isn't your average widget company. People don't invest in companies like SpaceX just because of the profit potential, they do it because they desperately and fervently want to see us get our bald monkey asses off this rock. Having a CEO that unabashedly shares this passion is heartening to investors like those. If anything, I expect this "outburst" will help SpaceX more than harm them.

    8. Re:Hell-bent by MightyYar · · Score: 2, Funny

      I don't even WANT to think about that. I mean, if it were true that God is Satan... all my worshiping, all of my praying, all of my sacrifice to the Dark Lord would be in vain! My last sacrifice was a whole sack of puppies! Did they die for no reason?

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    9. Re:Hell-bent by Dr.+Cody · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      Someone didn't get Nick at Nite.

    10. Re:Hell-bent by dugjohnson · · Score: 1

      <quote><p>As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work.</p></quote>

      <p>Something tells me that perhaps he doesn't genuinely, really believe that God is his witness... :)</p></quote>

      God=witness plus hell-bent merely helps determine WHO his God is.

      --
      My brain is overly lubricated
    11. Re:Hell-bent by SlipperHat · · Score: 1

      As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work.

      Something tells me that perhaps he doesn't genuinely, really believe that God is his witness... :)

      Or he thinks he is John Constantine. Funny how my captcha was 'repents'.

    12. Re:Hell-bent by DerekLyons · · Score: 2

      People don't invest in companies like SpaceX just because of the profit potential, they do it because they desperately and fervently want to see us get our bald monkey asses off this rock. Having a CEO that unabashedly shares this passion is heartening to investors like those.

      The problem being that the sets 'folks who share that passion' and 'folks who have significant money to invest' have essentially zero overlap. Serious investors invest to make a profit, not to scratch some philosophical itch. Those that do are extraordinarily rare. That's one of the reasons cheaper spaceflight has had such a problem getting off the ground - the upfront capital costs are huge, the risks are enormous, and the probability getting your capital back (let alone covering the time value of your investment and then making a profit) is extraordinarily low.
       
      And before anyone else brings it up, thinking themselves wise by believing (and karma whoring by repeating) a comforting mantra: No, this isn't a modern attitude. Investments as far out on the bell curve as SpaceX have always had a hard time finding capital.

    13. Re:Hell-bent by Rei · · Score: 4, Informative

      The problem being that the sets 'folks who share that passion' and 'folks who have significant money to invest' have essentially zero overlap.

      There's pretty much a whole class of dotcom-wealthy geeks in Silicon Valley who are a living contradiction to that statement. Let me tell you, for the most part, it's not movie stars who are plopping $100k down for Tesla Roadsters.

      Investments as far out on the bell curve as SpaceX have always had a hard time finding capital.

      SpaceX's third failure in a row just occurred and they just got a brand new influx of investment capital.

      --
      FSB hits! FSB hits! Your democracy dies. Do you want your possessions identified?
    14. Re:Hell-bent by Daimanta · · Score: 2, Funny

      "n flight they can reach a speed of 50 miles per hour (80 km/h)."

      Seriously, WTF.

      Can you imagine that?

      It's a bird, no it's a plane. No, it's a frikking wild turkey and he's coming after me, HEEEEELP!

      --
      Knowledge is power. Knowledge shared is power lost.
    15. Re:Hell-bent by jcnnghm · · Score: 1

      Take a look at this guy, http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/126/a-mighty-wind.html. In a single interview Pickens manages to call Clinton dishonest and John Kerry a "fucking liar", and he doesn't have any problems finding investors.

      Some people are more interested in what you do than what you say, and would prefer to deal with someone that says what they mean. It's kind of like corporate social responsibility, it's a great feel good measure but when it comes down to it, it's a bad investment. Catering to fringe groups just doesn't pay.

      --
      You don't make the poor richer by making the rich poorer. - Winston Churchill
    16. Re:Hell-bent by Kozar_The_Malignant · · Score: 1

      >"n flight they can reach a speed of 50 miles per hour (80 km/h)."

      Fairly quickly at an acceleration of 9.8 m/s^2. Less than three seconds.

      --
      Some mornings it's hardly worth chewing through the restraints to get out of bed.
    17. Re:Hell-bent by WindBourne · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Hmmm. I am guessing that you do not know too many CEOs of medium companies, let along major companies. Most have little scruples and cuss like a sailor or dick cheney.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    18. Re:Hell-bent by sprior · · Score: 1

      Imagine my surprise when near our new house we spotted wild turkeys up in the branches of trees. After WKRP we all thought that was impossible...

    19. Re:Hell-bent by lord_sarpedon · · Score: 1

      Not entirely! As a matter of fact, I hate puppies. I'm more of a cat person.

      Your undead savior,
      Zombie-jesus

      --
      "Strangers have the best candy" -Me
    20. Re:Hell-bent by gnick · · Score: 1

      You've never seen Wild Turkey flying at 50 mph? Quickly consume about half of a fifth, put a radar gun in your toilet, and wait for the results. Another method that's about equally as enjoyable is to hurl insults at somebody drinking straight from the bottle and wait for it to fly at your head. 50 mph isn't at all unachievable.

      --
      He's getting rather old, but he's a good mouse.
    21. Re:Hell-bent by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And I just LOOOVE puppies!

      Your scaly savior,
      Raptor-jesus

    22. Re:Hell-bent by LWATCDR · · Score: 1

      Okay I think the outburst was unnecessary and I don't think it was a great idea.
      Is it a big deal? I really don't think so. While I am offended.

      --
      See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
    23. Re:Hell-bent by smoker2 · · Score: 1

      Don't you mean "cuss like a sailor AND dick cheney" ?
      Yeah, oh yeah, Fuck yeah .....

    24. Re:Hell-bent by Toonol · · Score: 1

      Nah, I think those are the companies that get stuff done. In twenty years, everything the (new) CEO says will be vetted by the PR and legal departments, and the company will simply coast on slowly-decaying inertia until it dies.

    25. Re:Hell-bent by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hell, I am unemployed and penniless but f--k that, as God is my witness, I am hell bent on investing in this shit!

    26. Re:Hell-bent by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      The problem being that the sets 'folks who share that passion' and 'folks who have significant money to invest' have essentially zero overlap.

      There's pretty much a whole class of dotcom-wealthy geeks in Silicon Valley who are a living contradiction to that statement. Let me tell you, for the most part, it's not movie stars who are plopping $100k down for Tesla Roadsters.

      I'm talking about investing - you are talking about buying the latest toy/status symbol. Two entirely different things.

    27. Re:Hell-bent by ozbird · · Score: 1

      As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work.

      Something tells me that perhaps he doesn't genuinely, really believe that God is his witness... :)

      He sounds like an Old Testament kind of guy: smite it into submission.

    28. Re:Hell-bent by Rei · · Score: 1

      I'm talking about exactly what I said I was talking about: Folks who *both* "share the passion" amd "have significant money to invest" are *NOT* zero overlap. There's quite a large number of them, actually.

      --
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    29. Re:Hell-bent by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      Buying Tesla's at retail is not investing. If you want to prove that the set has more than essentially zero (note carefully I didn't say zero, here or in my original message), you'll have to do much better than that.

    30. Re:Hell-bent by bobdotorg · · Score: 1

      It's a bird, no it's a plane. No, it's a frikking wild turkey and he's coming after me, HEEEEELP!

      Those are some pissed off turkeys!!!

      --
      __ Someday, but not this morning, I'll finally learn to use the preview button.
    31. Re:Hell-bent by Rei · · Score: 1

      Buying Tesla's at retail is not investing.

      It shows wealth and passion for geeky interests, which fundamentally disroves the above claim. If you're wanting to revise the claim, then go ahead, but don't get mad at me for demonstrating that what was written is false. Of course, even a revised claim, such as "even weathy geeks aren't willing to invest in high-risk items that require an interest in geeky passions", is likewise easily disprovable, given how readily SpaceX has gotten investments (including $20M right after their last failure) from this same community. And likewise, Tesla Motors, for that matter.

      --
      FSB hits! FSB hits! Your democracy dies. Do you want your possessions identified?
    32. Re:Hell-bent by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      Buying Tesla's at retail is not investing.

      It shows wealth and passion for geeky interests, which fundamentally disroves the above claim.

      No, it does not - because my statement applies to investing in a company (that is expecting financial return), not purchasing items at retail. I've already explained this to you once.
       
       

      If you're wanting to revise the claim, then go ahead, but don't get mad at me for demonstrating that what was written is false.

      I have no need to revise my claim - because you have yet to even address it, let alone refute it.
       
       

      Of course, even a revised claim, such as "even weathy geeks aren't willing to invest in high-risk items that require an interest in geeky passions", is likewise easily disprovable

      The discussion, and my claim, has never been about buying toys and status symbols. The discussion, and my claim, has been about making investments in companies.
       
       

      given how readily SpaceX has gotten investments (including $20M right after their last failure) from this same community.

      A $20M investment in SpaceX is likeme giving you $5 towards the purchase of your next gaming rig - it is neither significant on a day to day basis to me, nor a significant amount of the total funds required. It's a token, impressive to the easily impressed but not so much to those actually familiar with the situation.
       
      Nor does it invalidate my original statement that the overlap between the two sets is essentially zero.

  3. I must ask by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    Did it have the mortal remains of any famous actors onboard?

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    1. Re:I must ask by fastest+fascist · · Score: 1

      It's what they use as propulsion material.

    2. Re:I must ask by rugatero · · Score: 3, Funny

      Actually it's got a million and one uses. Torgo's Thespian Powder!

      --
      This comment is for entertainment purposes only. Any similarity to real insight or information is purely coincidental.
    3. Re:I must ask by dontPanik · · Score: 2, Informative

      Did it have the mortal remains of any famous actors onboard?

      From TFA

      the ashes of 208 people, including astronaut Gordon Cooper and James Doohan, the actor who played Scotty in the original Star Trek television show

      --
      "Computers are useless. They can only give you answers." - Pablo Picasso
  4. Do they have payloads lined up to be blown up? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Or are they just pushing the ashes of dead movie stars into low earth orbit?

    1. Re:Do they have payloads lined up to be blown up? by dontPanik · · Score: 3, Informative

      There was a DoD satellite and a NASA thingie on board when it failed.
      Also there's plans to make deliveries to ISS once the shuttles are through.

      --
      "Computers are useless. They can only give you answers." - Pablo Picasso
    2. Re:Do they have payloads lined up to be blown up? by Seraph787 · · Score: 2, Informative

      according to the interview they have "12 flights ahead of us"

  5. Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    Optimism, pessimism, f-ck that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work

    Now that sounds like a man who gets things done.

    1. Re:Wow by BigDaddyOttawa · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Or a man who can drive your company in to the ground faster than a failed Falcon 1.

      --
      Sig? SIG? We don't need no stinkin' sig!!!
    2. Re:Wow by DNS-and-BIND · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Actually, it sounds like a man who is altogether too comfortable with profanity and who cares little for the problems faced by his team. Would you like to work for such a man?

      Hint: when he says "I'm hell-bent on making it work", he actually means "I will not be doing any of the actual work myself, but I'm hell-bent on pushing my workers". Been there, done that, got the T-shirt.

      --
      Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
    3. Re:Wow by kipman725 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      yeah but he uses the profanity so well, why can't all press releases be like this.

    4. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Even if that's the case, it's a lot better than the play on words that most companies do.

      And hey, trial and error never hurt anyone before

    5. Re:Wow by e2d2 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      And what the fuck is wrong with profanity?

      They are trying to shoot people into space for God's sake and that takes passion. This sometimes manifests itself in profanity.

      Personally I like this attitude much more than the life-less suit who can't relate to the passionate. I prefer Larry Ellison's "I'm gonna kick the fucking door down and take that shit!" to Bill Gates "well, we better see if we can sneak in the back and steal everything". It's much more honest. Both have the same goal, but one isn't delusional about it.

    6. Re:Wow by DNS-and-BIND · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      Criticism of abusive bosses modded to -1 flamebait. Only on slashdot...

      --
      Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
    7. Re:Wow by damburger · · Score: 0, Troll

      Yep. He is a Randian hero - a 'rugged individualist' who drives society single-handedly by paying other people to do things.

      When a person, such as Musk, has his ambition turned into results through the ingenuity of those he has employed, it is tempting for him to attribute that success solely to the ambition part. Its a fairly quick path from there to monomania and hubris.

      --
      If we can put a man on the moon, why can't we shoot people for Apollo-related non-sequiturs?
    8. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Equally unlikely that any one person will do the actual work it takes to get the thing into space. The same guy doing the math AND turning the wrenches isn't likely.

      You've taken his figure of speech too literally, a good perspective on that sort of thing was posted early on in yesterday's Subject to Change story but I'm too lazy to find and link it. In summary: you have literacy problems.

      Coming from someone in his position the quote should be taken to mean something along the lines of: I'm going to do what it takes to make sure this company does not give up and that is has the resources necessary to get this done. He does not need, nor would any news source give him the necessary space to, name each individual who would be doing each portion.

      A back article isn't the Oscars. And praise be to Bob who tightened the bolts on the flanges that delivered the crude that was refined into rocket fuel, or the like.

      And I've entirely refrained from profanity throughout this post to keep from offending your delicate sensibilities.

      Good luck in the world.

    9. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      With so much drive to just make it work, lets hope they take the time to make it work every time before sending people up.

    10. Re:Wow by oliderid · · Score: 4, Informative
      if you invest into spaceX Obviously:
      • You are aware of the risk
      • You don't expect any return on investment in a short/medium term...Or better you don't expect anykind of return at all.
      • You know it will waste large sum of money.
      • You are looking for fun.

      What you need are fanatics investing all their energy in the project and leading the team. Like him. And then it could be a success IMHO. Cold blood/rationnal manager would have left this project already.

    11. Re:Wow by Darfeld · · Score: 1

      And hey, trial and error never hurt anyone before

      Famous last words?

      Well maybe not in this context, but I wouldn't generalize.

      --
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      (='.'=) copy it in your sig
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    12. Re:Wow by halcyon1234 · · Score: 1

      Optimism, pessimism, f-ck that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work

      Now that sounds like a man who gets things done.

      He sounds like the lovechild of D. D. Harriman and Henry Rollins.

    13. Re:Wow by deshkanna · · Score: 3, Insightful

      This was the thing I liked the most in the article...

      Wired.com: Your whole mantra is "cheaper and more reliable." But so far you're zero for three, which is anything but cheap and reliable, and guys like GlobalSecurity.org's John Pike say the reason it has taken billions of dollars and tens of thousands of people to successfully launch rockets is physics, not some new design or economic model.

      Musk: Guys like John Pike have existed since the dawn of time, and if you listen to people like that then things will never get better, never change. It's a false point of view. Yes, we need to put some rockets into orbit. But the first order of business is to get rid of design errors, which we're doing, and once those are eliminated then you're dealing with repeatability, and people should judge what we're doing from the point of view of all the design issues we've ironed out through these F1 test flights.

    14. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      They are trying to shoot people into space for God's sake and that takes passion. This sometimes manifests itself in profanity.

      Personally I like this attitude much more than the life-less suit who can't relate to the passionate. I prefer Larry Ellison's "I'm gonna kick the fucking door down and take that shit!" to Bill Gates "well, we better see if we can sneak in the back and steal everything". It's much more honest. Both have the same goal, but one isn't delusional about it.

      Hell, I'll even settle for Gates' "sneak in the back and steal everything". Even that would be honest.

      But back to the matter at hand. I'll take a "Fuck that. We're going to make it work" in a press release any day, over the mealy-mouthed "We have faith that our current challenge can be overcome" corporatespeak that currently plagues press releases.

      The second stage didn't encounter a challenge, it encountered the first stage, and then blew the fuck up. That's not a surmountable challenge, or even an issue, it's a fixable bug or solvable problem.

      If people said what they meant, and meant what they said, there'd be a lot less failure in the business world.

      Management needs someone who can do for businesspeak what Edward Tufte did for the visual presentation of information. It's not just the PowerPoint that kills astronauts, it's the use of phrases like "the stresses imposed by the frozen deposit upon the RCC were in excess of design parameters" as opposed to "Are you fucking nuts? We never tested for that shit, so none of us has any fucking clue how bad the damage is until someone gets the fuck out there and actually looks at it!" (Challenger), and "The performance of the O-ring under this thermal profile is not guaranteed, but is likely to be adequate" over "Well, I'd bet $50 that nobody dies this time, but I sure as fuck wouldn't want to be flying on it. If you really wanna get the teacher in space in time for the State of the Union speech, it's your call, boss. Don't fuckin' blame me if you kill 7 people." (Columbia).

    15. Re:Wow by Henkc · · Score: 1

      hmm, you're obviously not leadership material, hence your attack on Musk. This is the way the world works, get over it.

    16. Re:Wow by damburger · · Score: 1

      It isn't the way the world 'works' because what Musk has done does not 'work' at all. What works is collaboration, teamwork, respect for talent - and managers who respect that. The dot com bubble made men very rich very quickly, not allowing the time form them to reflect and mature, and these people are not nearly as smart as they think they are, nor as good leaders as you seem to think they are.

      --
      If we can put a man on the moon, why can't we shoot people for Apollo-related non-sequiturs?
    17. Re:Wow by Rei · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Its not that there's not the potential for big returns. Quite to the contrary, if they actually get the bugs ironed out and hit their price target, they're going to make an utter mint. The problem is the risk. The private rocketry landscape is littered with the graves of equally ambitious companies. What makes SpaceX interesting is how much capital they have behind them and how far along they are. They actually stand a chance of pulling it off, and I think that's what makes them so interesting. But it's still a very risky investment, because rocketry is a very tough business in comparison to other investments people might throw their money into.

      --
      FSB hits! FSB hits! Your democracy dies. Do you want your possessions identified?
    18. Re:Wow by Rei · · Score: 1

      Exactly. I find this sort of talk a breath of fresh air. It reminds me of Gene Kranz -- the take-no-prisoners, failure-is-not-an-option NASA ground control manager who, among other things, ran the mission control "Tiger Team" during the Apollo 13 disaster.

      Musk isn't so much speaking to investors as he is to his own people back in SpaceX. Anyone who watched the video could hear the elation of the crowds at SpaceX, mostly SpaceX employees, as the rocket lifted off the pad, and the renewed cheers with every significant milestone -- Mach 1, Max-Q, etc. You didn't need to be able to see them to picture their faces. I'm sure this was crushing to them. What they need right now isn't generic manager-speak; they need to know that some guy with deep pockets at the top of the company is going to fight like a tiger to keep this thing going until they hit their goal.

      --
      FSB hits! FSB hits! Your democracy dies. Do you want your possessions identified?
    19. Re:Wow by PeterBrett · · Score: 2, Informative

      Management needs someone who can do for businesspeak what Edward Tufte did for the visual presentation of information. It's not just the PowerPoint that kills astronauts, it's the use of phrases like "the stresses imposed by the frozen deposit upon the RCC were in excess of design parameters" as opposed to "Are you fucking nuts? We never tested for that shit, so none of us has any fucking clue how bad the damage is until someone gets the fuck out there and actually looks at it!" (Challenger), and "The performance of the O-ring under this thermal profile is not guaranteed, but is likely to be adequate" over "Well, I'd bet $50 that nobody dies this time, but I sure as fuck wouldn't want to be flying on it. If you really wanna get the teacher in space in time for the State of the Union speech, it's your call, boss. Don't fuckin' blame me if you kill 7 people." (Columbia).

      You got those shuttles wrong way round. Just sayin'.

    20. Re:Wow by Rei · · Score: 1

      People like Pike ignore history. Just look at the failures that occured when they merely tried to modify Atlas for commercial launches -- let alone when they started out the Atlas program. Virtually-from-scratch rocket designs are incredibly risky ventures. And apart from a couple things like the pintle injectors, that's what the Falcon series is -- from scratch. It's utterly ridiculous to expect a from-scratch orbital rocket to work perfectly right away. And really, only their first failure could be credited to anything close to negligence in design or testing (incompatible alloys in contact with each other, combined with the salty, corrosive environment at Kwaj). In their second launch, their simulations had shown that they wouldn't need a baffle; a number of rocket upper stages have gotten by without baffles before. It turns out that the simulation was wrong. What more could they have done with another thousand, or ten thousand people for that matter? It's not like you can do several minutes of zero-G vaccuum flight testing in any environment other than an actual launch. With this third launch, their engine testing was no less vigorous than that used by NASA when testing modifications to its engines. The problem was that while thrust was well exhaused on earth 1.5 seconds after cutoff, in a vaccuum, it lasted longer. It'd have been virtually impossible on Earth for them to have discovered the residual thrust problem from their new engine; you're not going to realistically be able to construct such a massive vaccuum chamber that can evacuate that much rocket exhaust that fast, and you'd still have the corrupting influence of gravity on your tests anyways.

      --
      FSB hits! FSB hits! Your democracy dies. Do you want your possessions identified?
    21. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >> Would you like to work for such a man?

      Hell, yeah!

    22. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What makes SpaceX interesting is how much capital they have behind them and how far along they are.

      Far along? The haven't even had a successful launch. To make any money they'll have to show they can be reliable which will take many successful launches. We're all excited to see someone else trying, but keep in mind it's been a total failure so far.

    23. Re:Wow by e2d2 · · Score: 1

      Yeah no doubt, eh. How dare you! If I thought it was flamebait I wouldn't have responded. I thought it had enough merit to discuss.

    24. Re:Wow by UltraAyla · · Score: 1

      It's only a total failure if you look at each launch with the wrong expectations. Think of these launches as tests of current equipment with high stakes. If it makes it to space, that's great, but they all understand the possibility of crashing down.

      If you start looking instead at how close they have come each time, the fact that they are still trying when others might have quit, that they have capital and momentum behind them, etc, you might start to think that they are quite successful.

    25. Re:Wow by Rei · · Score: 1

      Compared to almost all of the other private space startups (and there've been a lot of them), SpaceX, by virtue of having practically gotten to orbit on flight 2 and making it this far on flight 3, is way ahead of the game. Most don't even make it to the point of actually shooting for orbit.

      --
      FSB hits! FSB hits! Your democracy dies. Do you want your possessions identified?
    26. Re:Wow by Chris+Burke · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Yes. Having an actual craft that works enough to get high enough into the air to fail in its second stage is far along.

      This. Is. Rocket. Science.

      I don't know why it's so hard for people to understand this.

      --

      The enemies of Democracy are
    27. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It'd have been virtually impossible on Earth for them to have discovered the residual thrust problem from their new engine;

      No. They knew about it, and tried to account for it, but didn't completely account for it. More residual thrust in regen engines vs ablative ones is a not a new phenomenon.

    28. Re:Wow by Free+the+Cowards · · Score: 1

      I don't know why it's so hard for people to understand this.

      Because they are absolute, utter morons.

      The same person who shrugs off thousands of unfixed bugs in a random popular open source project expects utter perfection from an incredibly complex machine which probably has more moving parts than they have ever written lines of code.

      It's just a manifestation of the attitude that if you don't know anything about it, it must be easy.

      --
      If you mod me Overrated, you are admitting that you have no penis.
    29. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Umm I think you have your shuttle accidents backwards.

    30. Re:Wow by localman · · Score: 1

      I essentially agree with you, but what is unfortunate is that if you talk like that you'll almost surely get sidelined and/or fired. Seen it happen several times. Unless you're the CEO (this guy is, so it works) being a straight-shooting loudmouth is often employment suicide. If you stand up, things don't actually get better, you just disappear and the same-old-same-old continues. Maybe if more people stood up together it would work? But the majority have bills and such that keep them from rocking the boat.

      Cheers.

    31. Re:Wow by Rei · · Score: 1

      The residual thrust problem -- short of building a gigantic vacuum chamber, what do you expect them to do that would have determined that residual thrust was going to be more than they expected? They're already doing CFD simulations.

      --
      FSB hits! FSB hits! Your democracy dies. Do you want your possessions identified?
    32. Re:Wow by marco.antonio.costa · · Score: 1

      who modded you Insightful? oh, I guess slashdot doesn't have the "Self-righteous" mod.

      --
      Send your spendthrift head of state this
    33. Re:Wow by marco.antonio.costa · · Score: 1

      Abusive boss? Didn't make it into SpaceX team, didn't you. I'm sorry. :)

      --
      Send your spendthrift head of state this
    34. Re:Wow by DNS-and-BIND · · Score: 1

      Well, it wasn't flamebait - I was being serious. Abusive bosses who cuss are something to be avoided, and people think it's flamebait. Whatcha gonna do, it's freaking slashdot...

      --
      Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
    35. Re:Wow by Henkc · · Score: 1

      ...and you know all this because you know Mr Musk personally? Were you ever a part of his team in the past or present? Just because you feel your managers have slighted you in the past does not mean others are the same. Do you know what it takes to build a successful business? What sacrifices it usually requires? The chronic stress it incurs. Do you have a clue? I seriously doubt it, else you wouldn't be sprouting this kindergarten nonsense.

      Seems you have a problem with successful people, hence the derogatory "these people" reference.

      Come on, accept your lot in life: you are a worker bee, don't be ashamed of it or be angry at the world and the people who are prepared to accept the risks (and losses) and take the lead.

      Without leaders/entrepreneurs you wouldn't have a job. Without leaders you wouldn't have a fucking computer, or the fine threads you wear, or a car, etc. There comes a point when naivete is no longer cute, but simply silly.

    36. Re:Wow by damburger · · Score: 1

      You dare call me juvenile whilst spouting this objectivist bullshit? Put down Ayn Rand, get a job, and live in the real world for a while you ignorant little shit.

      Any organisation that treats people like 'worker bees' doesn't get their full contribution. That I can guarantee you based on my superior experience, intellect and knowledge of such things.

      Accept your lot in life; you are an antisocial borderline psychopath whose complete lack of empathy and intelligence will prevent him from ever achieving the 'success' he craves without understanding.

      --
      If we can put a man on the moon, why can't we shoot people for Apollo-related non-sequiturs?
    37. Re:Wow by Henkc · · Score: 1

      :-)))))))))))

      ooh, the worker bee has popped a vessel!

      I own two companies and am the very thing you seem to hate so much ;-)

      Get back to your work before your boss sees you wasting time on slashdot... :-))))))) Oh, and while you're at it, please clean the snot from your upper lip. It's unbecoming.

    38. Re:Wow by Teancum · · Score: 1

      IMHO the issue with the residual thrust is something that is more related to having engineers who have practical hands-on experience with flying hardware that can stand up to management and say "hey! I think this could be a huge problem!"

      The problem is that engineers with this sort of experience have some very gray hair and are either retired or dead... because they were the ones who helped build the rockets of the 1940's-1960's. New "from scratch" rocket designs are incredibly rare for either for-profit or government research.

      When the Delta IV rocket was designed, Boeing had the "luxury" of being able to entice some of their former employees who retired to be able to come back and help with a new generation of rocket building. If you read the 'pedia article, the RS-68 engine on the Delta IV was "the first large, liquid-fueled rocket engine designed in the U.S. since the Space Shuttle Main Engine". It really is that bad in terms of the depth of experience available to be able to answer these sort of questions about how to build a new rocket engine and to have the institutional experience to know what each engine design might do.

      SpaceX is building that sort of institutional knowledge with a comparatively young group of engineers who are going to be around for a great many years to come. Unfortunately, that sort of experience doesn't come cheaply, and requires sending up actual hardware into vacuum conditions.

      BTW, I do think the time will come for rocket test stands that will have to be built in space or on a place like the Moon. The only problem is that we need to get people there in the first place, and we have to start at a place like the Earth as that is where the engineers are at the moment.

    39. Re:Wow by damburger · · Score: 1

      You will die alone, and thats a good thing for everyone else. You think you are the king of your own little hill but you are nothing.

      --
      If we can put a man on the moon, why can't we shoot people for Apollo-related non-sequiturs?
    40. Re:Wow by Henkc · · Score: 1

      Nope, I have a family, big house, the whole nine yards. My time is my own.

      You will die alone, forgotten, no achievements.

      I'll leave a legacy, impacted positively upon countless lives and careers, and die with a smile upon my dial having achieved everything I set out to do, and had a lot of fun doing it... and so will people such as Elon Musk.

      yawn, bye-bye now, you're boring.

    41. Re:Wow by damburger · · Score: 1

      Apparently we are supposed to believe this irritating troll is some kind of ace businessman - its absurd that he thinks he might be able to get the best out of people with this attitude.

      He also counts getting me angry as a victory. You know, once you get out of high school, things don't work like that. Its actually good to get angry at that which is unacceptable - like your behaviour. If you had the nerve (which I seriously doubt) to talk to people like this in real life you would routinely get knocked on your arse for your trouble. That is why you come here and troll, and lie.

      --
      If we can put a man on the moon, why can't we shoot people for Apollo-related non-sequiturs?
    42. Re:Wow by Henkc · · Score: 1

      Nope. All this started because of your arrogant comments and attitude about Elon Musk. Go back and read what you said. Now, I don't know the guy, but I respect his achievements, drive and entrepreneurship.

      It's armchair moaning pissants like you who irritate the shit out of me.

      ...and trust me, I know your type. I routinely reject job applications from people like you. Thankfully, your type is not too common. Most people don't moan about others who have achieved something in life - they just get on with theirs.

    43. Re:Wow by Rei · · Score: 1

      Very good points all around. Indeed, even if nothing else of use comes from this, the amount of experience SpaceX has been building that's been sorely lacking in this country for decades will be a great boon to whoever follows them.

      --
      FSB hits! FSB hits! Your democracy dies. Do you want your possessions identified?
    44. Re:Wow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Add in more safety factor, that's what I'd expect. It's a known unknown - stage re-contact for the exact same reason has happened on other rockets, so for the first launch with the new type of engine where they know (or ought to know) that they can't exactly simulate this KNOWN issue I'd expect they'd add in margin.

  6. Rockets falling to earth? by Alzheimers · · Score: 4, Funny

    Personally, I blame Newton.

    1. Re:Rockets falling to earth? by AliasTheRoot · · Score: 2, Funny

      You cannae break the laws of Physics

    2. Re:Rockets falling to earth? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Somehow I knew that Apple would get bashed again..

    3. Re:Rockets falling to earth? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Newton was just the messenger. Blaim the damn apple.

  7. Literature by DoofusOfDeath · · Score: 2, Insightful

    "Optimism, pessimism, f-ck that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work."

    Wow, it's like listening to Ahab rant about getting Moby-Dick. Hopefully this will have a better outcome.

    1. Re:Literature by RevWaldo · · Score: 1
      I was thinking Scarlet O'Hara myself -

      As God is my witness, as God is my witness they're not going to lick me! I'm going to live through this and when it's all over, I'll produce shareholder return. If I have to lie, steal, cheat or kill. As God is my witness, I'll produce shareholder return!

    2. Re:Literature by DoofusOfDeath · · Score: 1

      As God is my witness, as God is my witness they're not going to lick me!

      Wow, she really cared about defending her virtue!

  8. Less Viagra? by SanderDJ · · Score: 2, Funny

    "produced residual thrust for 1.5 seconds longer than expected" Cut back on the Viagra next time?

    1. Re:Less Viagra? by OK+PC · · Score: 1

      Did they use Imperial or Metric seconds?

      --
      Did you get that thing I sent ya?
  9. did he really say that? by Seraph787 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    "Optimism, pessimism, f-ck that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work." I can't find a reference to that quote in the wired article or on google.

    1. Re:did he really say that? by th1nk · · Score: 5, Informative
      I think it's the part in the wired article that goes like this:

      Musk: Do I sound optimistic?

      Wired.com: Yeah, you always do.

      Musk: Optimism, pessimism, fuck that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work.

    2. Re:did he really say that? by Seraph787 · · Score: 1

      I'm just blind thanks

    3. Re:did he really say that? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      fuck that

      Why did tfs censor the curse word?

    4. Re:did he really say that? by Darfeld · · Score: 2, Funny

      I think he like to play hangman.

      --
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      (='.'=) copy it in your sig
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  10. I drink your milkshake! by InDi0 · · Score: 1

    SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has watched There will be blood too many times.

  11. SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by jacquesm · · Score: 5, Insightful

    And I fully expect them to be a major player in the future of commercial space travel.

    They've done some absolutely amazing things in the last couple of years on a budget that makes all the governments combined look pretty silly. They remind me of Reid Malenfant and his outfit (only a bit more realistic), and I don't think any issues that crop up during this test stage are going to slow them down for long.

    Maybe the 21st century will see some serious space exploration after all, instead of all those 'feel good' missions. $/kg to orbit is the only significant number for the next two decades or so, once there is enough construction capability up there to start hauling stuff inbound it should get interesting indeed.

    1. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by samkass · · Score: 5, Funny

      While I share your enthusiasm, maybe we should wait until they have at least one successful launch before holding them up as the template for success and the future of space flight. So far they're just a really, really expensive fireworks company.

      --
      E pluribus unum
    2. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by jacquesm · · Score: 4, Insightful

      In spaceflight you're on a very long trajectory (pun intended) where lots of stuff has to be tested, alone and in combination. The only way to be 100% sure that everything works is to do an all-or-nothing launch, which due to its very nature is a public event. Trouble is to be expected when you combine that large a number of components. ALL space programs have had their failures, there is absolutely no reason to expect commercial space flight to be an exception.

      What you can expect is a slow decrease of these failures as more and more of the failure modes of the equipment are revealing themselves under different circumstances. This is even true for regular commercial aircraft today, and it is one of the major reasons for accident investigations.

      SpaceX has just had a mishap that would have been hard to test for on the pad (I'm not knowledgeable enough in the field to comment on the exact differences between testing on the pad and a launch, but I suspect there are still numerous differences, caused by atmospheric pressure, the effects of acceleration etc). This failure, when dealt with is not going to cause another launch to go bad, the real question is how many more such issues are lurking under the grass. It would be nice to know if this failure would have been preventable, 1.5 seconds doesn't sound like much but during the critical period of separation it's like an eternity.

    3. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by Teancum · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Not quite the pessimistic attitude you are showing here.

      SpaceX is building real hardware and "getting it up there". I would call that a bit better than a typical fireworks company.

      Besides, the problem with this last launch was more of things bumping into each other when they shouldn't have. It is also a situation where they made several changes to their rocket and were testing them all out at the same time. While the $10 million or so that it costs for them to send up a Falcon 1 rocket is expensive enough to not want to do repeated testing, it does make it more complicated to call something like this an "operational flight" when not all components have been tested in actual flight conditions.

      If they can get another rocket shipped to Kwajalein and launched in less than a month, that will speak far more about SpaceX's capabilities than can possibly be said about snarky remarks like being a fireworks company.

      They are certainly a whole lot closer to bringing down the cost of rocketry than companies like Rocketplane Kistler who haven't even really launched any hardware or even tested it in things like wind tunnels or a launch stand.

      All this said, SpaceX does need to deliver something to orbit real soon. It looks like the Malasyian government is getting quite nervous about being the next customer to send something up, given the track record for SpaceX to put things into orbit. They simply must get this next launch if they are to keep some of their customers.

    4. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by drooling-dog · · Score: 4, Funny

      They've done some absolutely amazing things in the last couple of years on a budget that makes all the governments combined look pretty silly.

      I, for one, don't mind not coming back alive as long as the tickets are cheap...

    5. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by damburger · · Score: 2, Interesting

      To be blunt, a serious outfit would know how long their damn engine burns for.

      The reason they've done everything on such a small budget is because they cut through the red tape that holds government agencies back. Unfortunately, some of that red tape was obviously important for quality control.

      In any case, they aren't doing that well at reducing cost - Falcon 9 for instance is 5 million dollars per flight more expensive than Proton (albeit it with a slightly bigger capacity) and Proton has the longest and best record of any currently operating heavy lifter. People with 20+ tonne satellites will be designing them for current heavy launchers like Proton so the extra payload capacity won't be an issue for quite a while, leaving Falcon 9 looking a bit mediocre even if it does ever fly.

      So, for all Musk's bluster, your lean mean private enterprise doesn't seem to have much of an edge over decades old Soviet engineering.

      --
      If we can put a man on the moon, why can't we shoot people for Apollo-related non-sequiturs?
    6. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by jacquesm · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I'm sure all your multi-stage rocket designs flew picture perfect the first time out :)

      there is a reason why soviet tech is cheap, it's old and it's development has been paid for in the past (no comment on how it was paid for).

      So, any new development will be 'more costly' at face than old tech, but over time those costs should come down significantly. What is more surprising is that the difference between the old tech and the new one is as small as it is.

    7. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      WHOOSH!!

    8. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by damburger · · Score: 4, Interesting

      My first multi-stage was a lawn dart (coincidentally, it failed to stage too, but I damn well knew how long the first stage would burn for. It said so on the engine packet...) my second one flew perfectly. Sure, Musks are bigger but he has a lot more money than me.

      The launch market won't care for novelty though - 20 tonne satellites are Serious Business and people sending them up are likely to be quite cautious about embracing a potty-mouthed newcomer in favour of the old Russian stalwart. If nobody is buying his launcher how can he bring the price down?

      --
      If we can put a man on the moon, why can't we shoot people for Apollo-related non-sequiturs?
    9. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by Ilyon · · Score: 1

      They've done some absolutely amazing things in the last couple of years on a budget that makes all the governments combined look pretty silly.

      Sure. It's amazing that such a well-funded "private" company can have a 100% failure rate in a 40 year old industry, using off-the-shelf technology and public funding.

      We should keep in mind that there's nothing particularly new or exotic about SpaceX's rocket. Their failures have been caused by poor design of basic parts and lack of basic testing and rigorous analysis. This can't be compared to early NASA launch failures, when the science of rocketry had not been as firmly established as they are today.

      Seriously folks, this may be rocket science, but it's rocket science that has been firmly established by the time time most of us were born.

    10. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by sabre86 · · Score: 1

      SpaceX has just had a mishap that would have been hard to test for on the pad (I'm not knowledgeable enough in the field to comment on the exact differences between testing on the pad and a launch, but I suspect there are still numerous differences, caused by atmospheric pressure, the effects of acceleration etc)

      My understanding from the article is that the regeneratively cooled version of the Merlin takes longer to shutdown than the ablatively cooled one, because there's a longer path for the fuel to follow after it leaves the tank. All rocket engines have a shutdown "tail" where the thrust drops off over time, so you can't presume that engine is no longer generating thrust instantly after you shut off the fuel flow. They didn't model the tail to be long enough because the pressure in the chamber during the unanticipated part of the tail is apparently around 10 psi (about 69 kPa or .68 atm). Since this is below atmospheric pressure at sea level (14.7 psi, 101.3 kPa, 1 atm), and the mass flow rate was very small, it was (according to TFA) hard to detect in the actual ground testing they did on the engine. I'm not sure how they're modeling the engines, so I can't speak to why the tail didn't show up in their analysis (as opposed to their tests).

      --sabre86

    11. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by Rei · · Score: 1

      I look forward to seeing your vaccuum chamber that's large enough to accomodate a Merlin 1-C engine test firing and can remove the exhaust as fast as it's created so as to maintain the vaccuum.

      Even NASA couldn't have done tests that would have revealed this one. You might argue that their simulations would somehow have revealed it better than SpaceX's, but even that would be a tough claim to make. I doubt SpaceX is using anything but top of the line CFD simulations on their engines.

      --
      FSB hits! FSB hits! Your democracy dies. Do you want your possessions identified?
    12. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by Chris+Burke · · Score: 2, Informative

      To be blunt, a serious outfit would know how long their damn engine burns for.

      Yeah, maybe. Maybe not. Everything you would call a serious outfit had many more failures than Space X has had so far.

      Yes they need to pull it together. Yes they need a successful launch or it will call into question their whole business plan.

      No having three failures, and miscalculating an engine parameter, does not prove they aren't a serious outfit. Because no serious outfit has entirely avoided these mistakes.

      So, for all Musk's bluster, your lean mean private enterprise doesn't seem to have much of an edge over decades old Soviet engineering.

      You say "decades old" as if it's supposed to mean that lowers the bar for Space X, as if it's the same as saying "your new microprocessor doesn't seem to have much of an edge over decades old Intel parts". They're nothing alike. "Decades old" in this case means that the Soviets just got all their on-the-pad and mid-air explosions out of the way decades ago. If you assume that having such accidents means an outfit is non-serious, then what you're really saying is that there can never be a new serious outfit again.

      --

      The enemies of Democracy are
    13. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by damburger · · Score: 1

      I say 'decades old' as if its supposed to mean 'with less money and technology available' - and even then the Proton was successful for two of its first three launches.

      --
      If we can put a man on the moon, why can't we shoot people for Apollo-related non-sequiturs?
    14. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by jacquesm · · Score: 1

      every new rocket will have its failures, count on it.

      Just like every piece of software will have bugs. No matter how rigorous your testing and analysis, it's simply a function of the number of parts that go in to a system. Whether an issue will be catastrophic or not depends as much on the field as on that particular issue, and in rocketry the failures tend to be spectacular.

    15. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by jacquesm · · Score: 1

      Of the first 25 launches of protons 14 were failures, the fact that over the first three launches they got a bit lucky does not detract from the simple fact that like SpaceX proton had strings of failures.

      Sure, it was the 60's, but that does not matter, they had the power of a whole nation behind them and if the cost in absolute dollars was less then in dollars corrected for inflation it was actually substantially more.

      Do not berate SpaceX for trying something new for a change, otherwise we'd get stuck in a rut pretty quickly. Rocketry (and aviation in general) are extremely conservative, I very much welcome the attitude that dares to open up the design phase so that we can finally get rid of some of that 60's tech.

    16. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by khallow · · Score: 1

      Sure. It's amazing that such a well-funded "private" company can have a 100% failure rate in a 40 year old industry, using off-the-shelf technology and public funding.

      Not really. I'm not amazed. Rockets are tougher than you seem to think they are. SpaceX is a lot less "well funded" than most of its competitors were when they started (Orbital Sciences being the sole exception). And the public funding is a sad result of the fact that about half of all space-based spending comes out of the federal budget.

      We should keep in mind that there's nothing particularly new or exotic about SpaceX's rocket. Their failures have been caused by poor design of basic parts and lack of basic testing and rigorous analysis. This can't be compared to early NASA launch failures, when the science of rocketry had not been as firmly established as they are today.

      Of course, if SpaceX were to follow the NASA approach, which incidentally costs billions of dollars a year, then they'd be able to launch with less accidents. But such a high budget rocket isn't useful. SpaceX is trying something new. They're trying to launch a rocket for far less than current competitors. That means they need to spend less on all of the things you mention above. That is the "exotic" nature of SpaceX's program.

    17. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      SpaceX might be a great outfit but this particular response and minimization of the problem scares the heck out of me.

      "Oh we'll just add a few seconds" ... When the dialouge really should be more along the lines of what additional safety interlocks will be added to prevent future timing errors from distroying expensive payloads and live crew members. Process reviews to find out why this wasn't done in the first place would also be a step in the right direction.

      At some point its unacceptably expensive to build something based on trial and error and this response IMHO reflects a flawed mindset that will eventually get people killed.

    18. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by nasor · · Score: 1

      Check your numbers. The Proton has a LEO capacity of 22 tons and a launch price of $100 million/launch, while the Falcon 9 heavy has a LEO capacity of 27 tons at a price of $78 million/launch.

    19. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by damburger · · Score: 1

      Wrong. Proton is $85m and Falcon 9 is $90m

      --
      If we can put a man on the moon, why can't we shoot people for Apollo-related non-sequiturs?
    20. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by Rei · · Score: 1

      In any case, they aren't doing that well at reducing cost - Falcon 9 for instance is 5 million dollars per flight more expensive than Proton (albeit it with a slightly bigger capacity)

      Falcon 9: $36.7M / 12,500kg
      Falcon 9 Heavy: $94.5M / 29,610kg
      Proton M: 21,000kg. Price was $85-90M in 1999 ($107-$114M today with US CPI inflation, more if you use Russian inflation, and even more when you consider that the inflation for rocketry components is higher than that for general consumer goods)

      I don't see how you can criticize the Falcon launch series on pricing. Especially since they're not assuming reuse in Falcon pricing, yet the vehicles are designed to be able to have some degree of reuse if properly recovered, which would lower prices further.

      --
      FSB hits! FSB hits! Your democracy dies. Do you want your possessions identified?
    21. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by LWATCDR · · Score: 1

      I don't know about 1-C engine but I do know that P&W does test fire Centar engines in a vacuum chamber.

      --
      See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
    22. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by Chris+Burke · · Score: 1

      I say 'decades old' as if its supposed to mean 'with less money and technology available'

      Are you on crack, or just neglecting inflation?

      Also, new technology is the only reason they have a prayer of doing it cheaper.

      --

      The enemies of Democracy are
    23. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by nasor · · Score: 1

      Source? Space.com says that a Proton is "more than $100 million" http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/proton_launch_011201.html But if you have a source with a different price, I would be very interested to see it.

    24. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by Rei · · Score: 1

      The Merlin 1-C has nearly twice the thrust of a Centaur engine (~110k versus ~65k). I doubt the Lewis Research Center has the capability to handle engines that big. At the very least, it's certainly not big enough for an entire Falcon-1 first stage; that wouldn't even fit inside the chamber (max height of 50 feet).

      --
      FSB hits! FSB hits! Your democracy dies. Do you want your possessions identified?
    25. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by HTH+NE1 · · Score: 1

      Blooming space program with loud report. Light and get away.

      --
      Oh, say does that Star-Spangled Banner entwine / The myrtle of Venus with Bacchus's vine?
    26. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by LWATCDR · · Score: 1

      All I know is that Pratt test fires every Centaur and they have a very big vacuum rig to do it with.

      --
      See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
    27. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by Cochonou · · Score: 1

      Sure, but keep in mind that a successful design is only a part of the challenge of the space industry. Reliability is a key factor: you have to turn out satellites or launchers that work everytime. This is why space equipment is so expensive: everything is checked a lot of times. SpaceX wants to bring the cheapest launches to the table, reducing the expenses on the way. I have no doubt they will ultimately succeed in sending a payload in orbit - however, will they succeed in being reliable ? I think the real test for SpaceX is the test of the time.

    28. Re:SpaceX is a pretty serious outfit by Teancum · · Score: 1

      Reliability is a key factor: you have to turn out satellites or launchers that work everytime.

      I disagree with this sentiment. Even the most well established launchers with decades-old systems of proven performance still have malfunctions and don't always deliver as promised. Heck, even companies like Federal Express... that require consistent and timely deliveries in order to maintain their reputation... still have problems with trucks that catch fire or cargo that disappears due to other vehicle mishaps.

      I will admit, however, that reliability is an important issue, and it is something that nearly every vehicle manufacturer (generally) strives to achieve... be that a boat, plane, automobile, or in this case rockets.

      One of the goals that SpaceX is trying to accomplish is that they want to bring mass-production techniques into rocket building, and produce enough of them that the cost of manufacturing any given rocket is irrelevant.

      Precision can be done on mass produced items. Optical disc technologies (aka CDs and DVDs and similar items) require such fine precision that the individual bits produce a diffraction grating due to their size at about the wavelength of visible light. Yet both the "manufacturing" devices (aka optical disc writers) as well as the play-back devices are cheap enough that most people consider them to be cheap consumer electronics junk.

      As for the question "will they (SpaceX) succeed in being reliable?", I have to ask in response... why do you think they won't be reliable? To suggest that they won't be reliable implies that they take a shoddy approach and inconsistently manufacturer the parts on their rocket so it behaves differently each time. On the contrary, they seem to be able to consistently produce identical vehicles each time in their manufacturing process.

      What SpaceX is going through here is to re-learn lessons unfortunately lost due to hard-won knowledge not getting documented by earlier eras of rocket builders.... and having a relatively young engineering team who is forgetting some basic lessons about vehicle building in general. Elon Musk himself said it best, when he said "Rocket science looks hard, and it is harder than it looks". Every lesson that they learn is getting put into the future designs and "fixing" the problems that they are discovering over time.

      The real question is if SpaceX can get up enough successful rocket launches before their current set of customers bail out on them?

  12. Oblig. quote: by TripMaster+Monkey · · Score: 2, Funny

    "Would you consider that a launch problem or a design problem?"

    - Chris Knight

    --
    ____

    ~ |rip/\/\aster /\/\onkey

    1. Re:Oblig. quote: by AKAImBatman · · Score: 1

      "Falcon 1? Wow! Isn't that the rocket that's raining debris all over Europe?"

      -Chris Knight, slightly modified

    2. Re:Oblig. quote: by xalorous · · Score: 2, Insightful

      :)

      Real Genius shows us the kind of ingenuity that this country has all but lost. It's all about first to market, business plans and IPO's now.

      Anyway, Elon Musk and Richard Branson remind me of D. D. Harriman in R. A. Heinlein's Future History short stories, especially, "The Man Who Sold the Moon."

      --
      TANSTAAFL GIGO Acronyms to live by!
  13. More people need to say that. by Stoutlimb · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If NASA had that attitude, we never would have had a decade of stagnation after the first Shuttle accident. We'd have a moon colony by now. The problem is that the people at top too often see these kind of events as a signal to stop, where it really should be a sign that they're almost there. Remember when the Delta rocket flew and then fell over and burst into flames because of failed landing gear? LANDING GEAR! Something trivial to engineer (compared to the rest), and the project is shelved because of that failure. They should have kept going.

    Argh. Enough of my ranting, you people get the idea. I just wish the pointy haired bosses did.

    1. Re:More people need to say that. by ThreeE · · Score: 1

      You are a fool if you think any government agency is going to lead you to the future.

      Grow a pair and get to work with your own money. It seems Elon is.

    2. Re:More people need to say that. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's a wee bit different with people on board. I'll predict a short career for the NASA administrator who'll say this after a launch failure killing the entire crew:

      "Optimism, pessimism, f-ck that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work." ...we'll launch again next month.

    3. Re:More people need to say that. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If NASA had that attitude, we never would have had a decade of stagnation after the first Shuttle accident.

      Ahhh, yeah. I think some people actually died during that accident. That's going to change the tone, just a bit.

    4. Re:More people need to say that. by A+beautiful+mind · · Score: 1

      If NASA had that attitude, we never would have had a decade of stagnation after the first Shuttle accident

      NASA made the error of designing the shuttle in a top-down manner, which is a clear design procedure mistake. According to their engineering estimates the shuttle has about 1:100 chance of failure per flight, which means a high-profile shuttle disaster every few decades or so. The public and politicians are not willing to put up with that and NASA has no options to fix this, given that redesigning the shuttle from the ground up is out of budget. Instead they put the shuttle on the backburner and went for other areas to spend money on. It's looks like less progress, but I think it's taking the longer view atm.

      --
      It takes a man to suffer ignorance and smile
      Be yourself no matter what they say
    5. Re:More people need to say that. by g0dsp33d · · Score: 1

      If NASA had that attitude we'd probably have thousands of blown rocket husks laying about the island of Florida's thousand of craters.

      Considering where NASA had to start from, I think their management style has worked best to get us where we are now. Which style will lead us best forward remains to be seen.

      --
      lol: You see no door there!
    6. Re:More people need to say that. by Forbman · · Score: 1

      Delta Clipper/DC-X, you mean?

    7. Re:More people need to say that. by Guysmiley777 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      It was the Delta Clipper or DC-X. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DC-XA

      I remember seeing video of one of the test flights and being absolutely pole-axed. "It just fucking took off vertically, hovered cross-range and LANDED again!?!"

      Apparently it wasn't really the crash that ended the program, it had already had funding pulled before that flight. Still, it was a very Buck Rogers kind of vehicle.

      --
      Coding with assembly is like playing with Legos. Coding an application in assembly is like building a car with Legos.
    8. Re:More people need to say that. by baffled · · Score: 1

      ..too often see these kind of events as a signal to stop, where it really should be a sign that they're almost there.

      If anything, it's a sign something went wrong. Though it's not actually a sign at all - it's a consequence.

      But I share your enthusiasm. And really, we need to simply step back and ask what we're willing to sacrifice before replacing the engineering team, or killing the project. And sticking to those standards.

    9. Re:More people need to say that. by CraftyJack · · Score: 1

      If NASA had that attitude, Congress would drag them in for testimony and then cut their funding. Don't forget that Musk is playing with private funds, while NASA is not.

    10. Re:More people need to say that. by roystgnr · · Score: 1

      If NASA had that attitude we'd probably have thousands of blown rocket husks laying about the island of Florida's thousand of craters.

      Well, the government's first orbital rockets did tally up eight Vanguard husks from eleven launches. I'm very glad we did have Elon Musk's attitude back then, because "never say die" appears to be a big part of how we got to the Moon in the next decade from such inauspicious beginnings. I hope we still have the same attitude now, because it's going to be necessary if we're going to get through the redesign work necessary to make it affordable to get into space to stay.

      The reliability problems will get better, if they can afford to make enough flights and gather enough data to work out the problems. One of the best current launch vehicles used by NASA evolved from ICBMs such as the ones that had given us four Atlas A husks out of eight (very suborbital) launches, through a series of successors with failure ratios like 3/10, 2/6, 32/135, 15/48... check out all the different versions for yourself, and get an idea of why aerospace engineering has entered the lexicon with "rocket science" as a synonym for "something really hard".

    11. Re:More people need to say that. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So are these, in fact, test flights? As in, they're proving out the drive system, but to get funding, they're putting in payloads. They're blowing up payloads, but that doesn't seem to be a problem for them, or their customers. Sure, eventually they'll succeed; but it makes me wonder if their customers would be better portrayed as "venture capitalists"...

    12. Re:More people need to say that. by drjzzz · · Score: 1

      "Failure in not an option" was Gene Kranz' inspiring response to the Apollo 13 problem, a problem that could easily have led to tragedy without a lot of hard work by smart people and maybe a bit of luck. More people need to say things that don't need *** or euphemisms to print.

      --
      to err is human, to forgive is divine, to forget is... umm...
    13. Re:More people need to say that. by nasor · · Score: 1

      Remember when the Delta rocket flew and then fell over and burst into flames because of failed landing gear? LANDING GEAR! Something trivial to engineer (compared to the rest), and the project is shelved because of that failure.

      The funding was cut before the landing gear problem. It was originally developed as a military craft. Then the military decided that they didn't want it after all, so they gave it to NASA to mess around with. When it failed they were basically just burning through what little money they still had by making test flights. When it crashed because of the landing gear problem there wasn't any money to fix it.

  14. Wrong attitude for rocket science? by Hozza · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I hate to say this, but the CEO has an attitude problem.

    He needs to do some reading up on the reviews of NASA after the two shuttle disasters. In both cases overconfidence, and management overruling/ignoring the views of engineers were found to be major factors.

    If he keeps running "hell-bent" towards his goal he's never going to reach it.

    1. Re:Wrong attitude for rocket science? by Splab · · Score: 1

      So because he backs up his team of engineers, who says they should have nailed the problem you put him up with pointy haired bosses who overrules their engineers?

      Having a boss that is hell bent on making a goal is nice, especially when he understands the risks involved and doesn't go flag someone up the posts for getting it wrong.

      I think YOU have an attitude problem.

    2. Re:Wrong attitude for rocket science? by apathy+maybe · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Fuck off?

      Honestly, what attitude problem are you talking about?

      Swearing is never a problem and never indicates anything except that the person swears.

      Being "hell-bent" doesn't mean that he is going to overrule or ignore the engineers. Heck, with that attitude it would make sense to listen to the engineers. Because they are the actual ones who are going to have to do the work.

      So yeah, the only "attitude problem" I can see is the same that any CEO has, "my workers will do X". What army gave them the right to boss anyone else around? (Oh right, in this case the USA army; capitalism, requiring government since it was started.)

      (I've seen mixed results with the following sorts of quotes, but what the fuck: "I know I'll get modded down for this post, but ..." and "I've got karma to burn". Seriously, what's the point of having an opinion if you are too scared to post it?)

      --
      I wank in the shower.
    3. Re:Wrong attitude for rocket science? by Splab · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Also the GP clearly haven't read the interview.

      The guy is smart, he listen to his engineers - in fact he refuses to elaborate on the problem until they are absolutely sure its what caused it. He might come off as someone a bit eager to get his product flying (and staying airborne), but comparing him to the fucktards that killed people in NASA launches where they where advised against it is just not right.

      From the interview:
      Musk: Patience is a virtue, and I'm learning patience. It's a tough lesson.

    4. Re:Wrong attitude for rocket science? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      hell bent does not necessarily imply regardless of consequence.

    5. Re:Wrong attitude for rocket science? by Hozza · · Score: 1

      Who mentioned the swearing? Not me. I've got no problems with managers who make their views clearly known.

      The attitude problem is that after 3 out of 3 failed launches it must be time to take stock and let your engineers do what they're best at, fix problems.

      All his recent statements (not just those in the article) about keeping the launch schedule on track seem to be more aimed at investors than anyone else.

    6. Re:Wrong attitude for rocket science? by bigpaperbag · · Score: 0

      Of course, those engineers would have plenty of time to fix the problems when they have to shut down after the investors bail out. Damn investors, they don't contribute anything anyway! Oh...

    7. Re:Wrong attitude for rocket science? by timster · · Score: 1

      Nonsense, this is not a manned program. He needs to read up on early rocket development, like the launch history of the V2 which failed over and over again, as a reminder that this stuff is hard and error is part of the process.

      --
      I have seen the future, and it is inconvenient.
    8. Re:Wrong attitude for rocket science? by luzr · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Have you actually read the article?

      They have found the problem and they know how to fix it. It has nothing to do with previous failures.

      Sure, there might be another anomaly in the next launch. And then another. You never know, this is a rocket science after all...

      Anyway, what I really like about Spacex is exactly what you dislike. They are not aiming at single shot, they know this is hard. They have full assembly line of rockets, producing one after another.

      If they blow something, they just call "next" and try again until all quirks are resolved.

      This is the only possible and *right* attitude!

    9. Re:Wrong attitude for rocket science? by luzr · · Score: 1

      BTW, note that CEO is deeply invested into SpaceX himself :)

    10. Re:Wrong attitude for rocket science? by Guysmiley777 · · Score: 1

      Being "hell-bent" doesn't mean that he is going to overrule or ignore the engineers. Heck, with that attitude it would make sense to listen to the engineers. Because they are the actual ones who are going to have to do the work.

      Well, NASA was "hell-bent" on getting a launch in on a cold day in January. That didn't turn out so well.

      --
      Coding with assembly is like playing with Legos. Coding an application in assembly is like building a car with Legos.
    11. Re:Wrong attitude for rocket science? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I hate to say this, but the CEO has an attitude problem.

      It's safe to say he also has an altitude problem.

    12. Re:Wrong attitude for rocket science? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I hate to say this, but the CEO has an attitude problem.

      Most rockets have some sort of attitude control system.

    13. Re:Wrong attitude for rocket science? by cmat · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I think you confuse "deadline" with "goal".

      --
      -- Humans, because the hardware IS the software.
    14. Re:Wrong attitude for rocket science? by jameskojiro · · Score: 1

      Don't you mean "Altitude Problem"?

      --
      Tsukasa: All I really want, is to be left alone...
  15. Risk. by BitterOldGUy · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If NASA had that attitude, we never would have had a decade of stagnation after the first Shuttle accident. We'd have a moon colony by now. The problem is that the people at top too often see these kind of events as a signal to stop, where it really should be a sign that they're almost there. Remember when the Delta rocket flew and then fell over and burst into flames because of failed landing gear? LANDING GEAR! Something trivial to engineer (compared to the rest), and the project is shelved because of that failure. They should have kept going.

    Argh. Enough of my ranting, you people get the idea. I just wish the pointy haired bosses did.

    if Musk et al. has an accident where someone dies, I bet the FAA and others will be introducing some delays in his schedule. And I'm sure they'll some public outcry that he's flying over people and putting them in jeopardy - whether or not it's true.

    We've lost our sense of adventure, the acceptance of risk and, well, we've become a society that's so bent on being safe that we're afraid to take any warranted risks: we've become a society of pansies.

    1. Re:Risk. by smellsofbikes · · Score: 1

      >We've lost our sense of adventure, the acceptance of risk and, well, we've become a society that's so bent on being safe that we're afraid to take any warranted risks: we've become a society of pansies.

      It's not that we've lost our sense of adventure, it's that our sense of risk has become disproportionate, as has our sense of compensatory entitlement. We're terrified to get hurt and furiously looking for someone to blame when we do. So, people risk less out of fear of death, and companies risk less out of fear of getting sued to oblivion.

      I sometimes wonder if this echoes a transition from a basically religious society to a basically secular one. When you believe in Heaven you are less likely to be fanatically death-averse than when you are convinced that this life is all you get.

      --
      Nostalgia's not what it used to be.
    2. Re:Risk. by gregbot9000 · · Score: 1

      We, as in western nations? I'm pretty sure that India or China have no qualms with him losing a few lives. He launch's from islands outside the US, I think he could nation shop if he felt the need.

    3. Re:Risk. by marco.antonio.costa · · Score: 1

      Omg, what a reversal of values. He's not 'flying people' or 'putting them into jeopardy'. People are flying his rockets and putting themselves into jeopardy.

      It's not that we've lost our sense of adventure. It's just that people have lost their sense of minding their own business. I guess government taught them that. Be nosy. :-)

      --
      Send your spendthrift head of state this
  16. The road to hell... by Smivs · · Score: 1

    "I'm hell-bent on making it work." Then he will succeed, because as everyone knows the Road to Hell is paved with good inventions!

  17. Would you believe... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Missed it by 'that much'. Best of luck SpaceX, we're rooting for number 4 to make orbit.

  18. Commercial flights ? by Ksempac · · Score: 1

    Space flights have often lead to mid-air explosions, even with successful, well-known launchers.

    Although i hope theses companies will succeed (for the progress of science), I wonder if it is really ready for commercial flights. The first flight which ends up with the death of a customer will scare away all potential customers and stop investment for 10 years...

  19. Father Ted, Is That You? by segedunum · · Score: 4, Funny

    Optimism, pessimism, f-ck that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work.

    I take it he's also going to kick Bishop Brennan up the arse as well for good measure?

    1. Re:Father Ted, Is That You? by CraftyJack · · Score: 1

      Drink!

  20. Timing? WTF? by Yvan256 · · Score: 1

    I haven't RTFA, but are these things timed individually?

    Call me crazy, but shouldn't each part be communicating with the other parts so that they can synchronize?

    1. Re:Timing? WTF? by X0563511 · · Score: 4, Informative

      Bottom stage detached, continued burning. Less mass against the thrust, it accelerated and pushed on the top stage (but not perfectly centered as it would when still attached).

      I'm sure they do communicate, but after detaching that's gone.

      Basically the thruster(s) dieseled - continued running for a moment after fuel/whatever was cut.

      --
      For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...
    2. Re:Timing? WTF? by Yvan256 · · Score: 1

      If the bottom stage detached shouldn't the stage above it be already ignited and doing its own thrust, hence pushing the bottom stage out of the way at the same time?

      I'm not a rocket surgeon, though.

    3. Re:Timing? WTF? by X0563511 · · Score: 1

      Me either. I think perhaps the detached stage being right-up-in-your-business with the next stage may have interfered with it's thrust, but not being a rocket scientist I think I'm reaching far past my understandings.

      --
      For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...
    4. Re:Timing? WTF? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      I AM a Rocket Scientist.

      Traditionally, no, they wouldn't be timed individually. That's kind of a silly thing if you asked me.

      Typically you should wait until the first stage stop accelerating the rocket before dropping it. A sensor typically detects that condition and initiates seperation. To be safe, it may wait a beat or two before taking action to make sure the booster isn't just "chuffing". Or the sensor could have just been faulty, initiating seperation too soon.

      If the booster begins accelerating again (as in blows up) or gives a last burst of unexpected glory, that's just bad design or manufacturing issue. If it's a solid-fuel booster, that could happen from time to time, but if the motor is liquid fueled it should just cut off fuel and be done with it.

      Now, you could put the stages on their own timers, but there are risks. Usually the problem is a failed booster, and the timer on the upper stage fires with the rocket pointing the wrong way.

    5. Re:Timing? WTF? by Pontiac · · Score: 1

      Call me Crazy but shouldn't they have done a test run on a new engine design before launching a commercial payload? Maybe you get a big discount for sending your payload on the untested rockets.

      --
      If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur. --Red Adair
    6. Re:Timing? WTF? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

      Not quite. You normally want some seperation between the first and second stages before igniting the 2nd stage motor(s). That way, your own burning fuel doesn't get reflected back at the bottom of the 2nd stage. It sounds like the first stage pushed back against the second stage, when the 2nd stage motor fired, "cooking" the bottom of the second stage (thing burned fuel lines, control wiring, structural pieces, etc...).

    7. Re:Timing? WTF? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      thing==think

    8. Re:Timing? WTF? by Kavli · · Score: 1
      It's usually controlled by a sequence timer. But that being said, it's strange that they haven't incorporated a little bit more logic into the separation process, so it wouldn't separate until the accelerometers registered no net thrust.

      It should be assumed that the burn-rate of rockets are very well known. If not, it would be very difficult to get to a certain orbit. But anyway, if you separate with thrust coming from a ditched stage, you are more certain than death and taxes that you'll have a prematurely terminating mission.

    9. Re:Timing? WTF? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >It should be assumed that the burn-rate of rockets are very well known.
      >If not, it would be very difficult to get to a certain orbit.

      Assumed? Are you nuts? Unless there is a *LOT* of testing on a particular configuration, there are a lot of variables at play. This was a new configuration, BTW, which should tell you something about what happens when you make too many assumptions.

      As for getting into correct orbit, there is a lot of fine-tuning that goes on with smaller motors. It isn't like you make a big one or two stage rocket, let it go, and expect it to automatically insert itself into a particular orbit. Avionics with small thrusters get it into a precisely defined orbit.

    10. Re:Timing? WTF? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Methinks you use the word "dieseled" without knowing what it means.

      Hint: Rockets are not internal combustion engines. There is no Diesel-cycle. There's no Otto-cycle.

      Once you shut off the fuel in a liquid-fueled rocket, the game is over.

    11. Re:Timing? WTF? by exa · · Score: 1

      may I suggest that you do not need to be a rocket engineer to appreciate that individual timers are a damn silly idea. when i read the explanation (as a computer guy) i couldn't believe it. with engineers that lack engineering common sense i doubt that they can build reliable products at all.

      --
      --exa--
    12. Re:Timing? WTF? by X0563511 · · Score: 1

      I know, it was a (stretched) example and not gospel or anything.

      --
      For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...
  21. >> The first flight which ends up with the death of a customer will scare away all potential customers and stop investment for 10 years... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_notable_accidents_and_incidents_on_commercial_aircraft

    1. Re:Death by delt0r · · Score: 1

      Yet NASA stops dead in its tracks for years if the shuttle goes boom. And how would they have handeled the PR issues if one of the moon walkers dropped dead on national TV.

      The data indicates that even one death in a US based space program is a disaster of enormous proportions requireing a complete halt on all maned operations.

      Imagine if we did that with car crashes?

      --
      If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?
    2. Re:Death by Ksempac · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Good objection, but airlines are a little different from space travel for several reasons :
      - First, even though there have been a lot of airlines accidents, the numbers are pretty low compared to the number of flights per day. Notice also that the first accident was on 1922, 8 years after the first commercial flight. I think that space travel has a much higher accident/flight ratio. (I admit i don't have numbers to prove it : Wikipedia says that about 4% of people who went to space died inflight, but that includes early flights so it's not exactly the same thing.)
      - Second, plane flights were useful to people from the beginning : you could get from point A to point B in much less time than train or boat. Space travel has no such thing : it's a leisure activity. You won't miss a business opportunity if you don't try it.

    3. Re:Death by tirerim · · Score: 1

      Space travel does have a very high accident rate. It's not the early launches, either: the actual numbers are 18 deaths out of 430 people who have been to space (though many of those people have gone multiple times); 14 of those are accounted for by the two Space Shuttle disasters. The Shuttle in particular has a failure rate of 1.6%, 2 out of 123 launches.

      But that's still not a reason to prevent commercial spaceflights. People do dangerous things all the time, and as long as they understand the risks, there's no reason to stop them.

    4. Re:Death by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

      The Shuttle in particular has a failure rate of 1.6%, 2 out of 123 launches.

      The other four deaths are from the two Soyus failures that resulted in casualties. Counting just those two launches as failures (there were two other launches that basically blew up on the pad, with no deaths), the Soyuz as a failure rate of 2%, 2 out of 99 launches. 4% if you count the failures on the pad, 10% if you count the six flights that failed to achieve docking with Salyut/Mir.

      Zero for three isn't bad at all for a brand new rocket design. Zero for six wouldn't be bad, though I wouldn't be surprised if the investors bailed by that point.

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    5. Re:Death by tyrus568 · · Score: 1

      High accident rate? I heard on the news last night that the climbers that died on K2 recently only had a 2 in 3 chance of coming down. 1 out of 3 climbers die in the attempt. A 33% risk of death is a little higher than 1.6%. I say Let's get into space.

    6. Re:Death by marco.antonio.costa · · Score: 1

      Err... NASA is a government agency funded with taxpayer money. SpaceX, private corporation. You're absolutely right that even one death in a US space program is a disaster of enormous proportions, though. :-)

      But I am POSITIVE they will probably stick to unmanned missions for a good time to test out the rocket's quirks before sending people up. But I'll bet people will pay to go up all the same. The prospect of seeing the earth from orbit beats the risk. The Falcon's design seems solid and well-thought out.

      Hell, I'd pay for a seat if I had the money. Maybe go on a diet 6 months before to get a better price tag even. ;-)

      --
      Send your spendthrift head of state this
    7. Re:Death by delt0r · · Score: 1
      My point was the the orginal poster does have a point. That a single death is very disruptive to space programs.

      SpaceX, private corporation

      With contracts from NASA, so thats not going to change anything.

      Personally I think they will and should stick to unmanned flight. Its a lot cheaper and we can do and learn a lot that way. Once things are in fact reliable manned programs would become a much better idea with a history of successful flights behind you.

      The prospect of seeing the earth from orbit beats the risk.

      Dam right, yet we don't seem to be allowed to make that decision for ourselves these days.

      --
      If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?
  22. It's called passion. by JonTurner · · Score: 2, Informative

    General Patton would have disagreed. He understood the problems faced by his "team" and inspired them to overcome incredible odds. Sometimes a little profanity can be inspiring, if not used gratuitously.

    >>Would you like to work for such a man?
    Yes, actually I would. Because that sort of man, and the people who work for him, are going to do great things! That's real passion, which is sadly lacking from most corporations. He's not just your average CEO coasting toward a golden parachute and a retirement filled with golf and tea parties -- he's trying to overcome incredible odds to get a vehicle into space.

    1. Re:It's called passion. by Chris+Burke · · Score: 1

      General Patton would have disagreed. He understood the problems faced by his "team" and inspired them to overcome incredible odds. Sometimes a little profanity can be inspiring,

      Well I'm a fucking inspiring guy, then!

      if not used gratuitously.

      Aw, shit. :(

      --

      The enemies of Democracy are
  23. full credit to the man by Gearoid_Murphy · · Score: 1

    "Optimism, pessimism, f-ck that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work." Wow, I admire his grit.

    --
    prepare the survey weasels.
  24. Kettering ignition?!? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I have a hard time believing that this thing has a distributor. Most modern systems have gone to a computer controlled wasted spark ignition.

    On my cars that had advanced ignition, though, I would see these symptoms (run-on). Retarding the ignition, using higher octane fuel, cleaning carbon deposits in the combustion chamber, or just dropping the clutch with it in gear (3rd or 4th work best) will mostly solve these problems.

    Geez, it isn't rocket science, after all.

  25. oblig monty pythong ref... by mevets · · Score: 1

    | If NASA had that attitude, we never would have had a decade of stagnation after the first Shuttle accident.

    Listen, lad. I've built this kingdom up from nothing. When I started here, all there was was swamp. All the kings said I was daft to build a castle in a swamp, but I built it all the same, just to show 'em. It sank into the swamp. So, I built a second one. That sank into the swamp. So I built a third one. That burned down, fell over, then sank into the swamp. But the fourth one stayed up. An' that's what your gonna get, lad -- the strongest castle in these islands.

  26. Incredible resolve by caywen · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I think it shows the kind of incredible resolve it takes to do rocket science. I think it's the same resolve the Apollo program had, and I think it's infectious. It's one thing to be balls to the wall but have no demonstrative ability to execute, but remember that Flight 2 actually did make it up there. And that NASA and the US Government have enough confidence in their ability to give them major contracts. For those invoking the Ahab thing, I just don't see that. 5-1 odds they nail it in Flight 4.

  27. I think the last thing I'd do... by Illbay · · Score: 1

    ...is blaspheme, if I wanted my rocket to lift off successfully.

    --
    Any technology distinguishable from magic is insufficiently advanced.
  28. So close... by ClayJar · · Score: 5, Informative

    Actually, that's basically what happened. The Kestrel engine on the second stage ignited, and the exhaust from it pushed the first stage away. The problem is that the second stage is designed to have the exhaust expanding into the vacuum of space, and having the first stage right there meant that the exhaust was contained within (or perhaps I should say, was redirected by) the interstage. Normally, the first stage and second stage are pneumatically pushed apart just before the second stage fires.

    The exhaust was only in contact with the second stage for a very short period of time, but that was sufficient to "roast" the second stage enough to cause failure, either due to direct thermal effects or the forces created by the expanding exhaust (or to a combination of those factors).

    By the way, the nozzle of the Kestrel engine is radiatively cooled. Before the sloshing doomed flight two, it was cool (figuratively only!) to see the bell glowing brightly. Some people watching with me thought it was failing until I explained that it's supposed to look like that. ;)

  29. Residual thrust by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    When I thrust 1.5 seconds longer than expected, my wife goes into orbit. I don't see what their problem is.

  30. Fanatics considered harmful by quanticle · · Score: 2, Interesting

    While I agree that a certain amount of enthusiasm is necessary for a grand undertaking such as this, it is entirely too easy for a manager to be too enthusiastic, ignoring or minimizing serious issues for the sake of maintaining forward progress.

    James R. Chiles, in his book Inviting Disaster spends an entire chapter ("Doubtless") on this. He shows time and again how overconfident managers willingly blinded themselves to serious flaws in their programs, and were then surprised when those same flaws came to endanger human life and property.

    If I was an investor in SpaceX, I would be asking some very hard questions right now. I would certainly not be accepting Musk's characterization of this issue as a "quirk" or "small problem". SpaceX has had three real launches, in addition to innumerable hours of simulator and modeling time. Why was a serious issue like this not caught earlier? What other mission ending issues are there with the rocket? How confident are the working engineers' answers to the above two questions?

    SpaceX is not NASA. They don't have the luxury of an unlimited budget and governmental mandate. As such, their margin for error is correspondingly slimmer, and the board's tolerance for daredevilry should be correspondingly lower.

    --
    We all know what to do, but we don't know how to get re-elected once we have done it
    1. Re:Fanatics considered harmful by Karrde45 · · Score: 1

      It's a regen engine, which has different shutdown properties than an ablative engine. It would have been difficult to see this on the first two flight given the fact that they were different engines.

    2. Re:Fanatics considered harmful by Teancum · · Score: 1

      The primary investor in SpaceX is Elon Musk himself. He's been able to get some additional investment capital from several of his "friends", but they all know him personally and are very familiar with the company and his goals.

      The "small problem" that needed to be corrected in this case was simply a timing delay in the guidance software that allowed a little more time before stage separation. Admittedly this was due to a change in specifications that wasn't carried forward to the software engineer... or at least accounted for.

      Having dealt with hardware specification changes when writing device drivers, I can only imagine the frustrations that those software engineers are going through on such a mission critical piece of code.

      Rocket building is paying attention to even the slightest detail, and not letting it blow up on you. Also, with any engineering group, there is an institutional knowledge that builds up over time and learns from its mistakes. Unfortunately for rocket builders, most of those with the institutional memory about how to build new rocket systems from scratch are either retired or have died of old age some time ago.

      All in all, SpaceX and Mr. Musk are doing quite well given the track record for new rocket designs in the past, and there are some very hopeful signs that SpaceX is doing the right thing. If they succeed, SpaceX is going to be a very profitable company in the long run.

    3. Re:Fanatics considered harmful by quanticle · · Score: 1

      That raises even more questions, then. Why were you changing a fundamental component of a production system?

      --
      We all know what to do, but we don't know how to get re-elected once we have done it
    4. Re:Fanatics considered harmful by marco.antonio.costa · · Score: 1

      It's not a production system, it's the THIRD test launch.

      And they changed it because the regen cooling is better, and I reckon, cheaper than ablative. Simple as that.

      --
      Send your spendthrift head of state this
  31. New Engine by iamlucky13 · · Score: 2, Informative

    Yes, the events are synchronized. Main engine cut-off occurs 1.5 seconds before the stage separation pyros fire.

    When engine cut-off occurs, valves close to shut off fuel from the pumps. However, there is still fuel left in the lines that finishes burning resulting in a little residual thrust. In their previous test flight, this finished within that 1.5 seconds. However, this launch used a new engine design.

    The previous engine design was ablatively cooled. This means the engine nozzle is kept from melting by small amounts of material continuously burning off and carrying heat away. It's pretty analogous to sweating. The newer Merlin 1C is regeneratively cooled, which increases the performance and efficiency of the engine by running the cold fuel through small pipes that surround the engine nozzle for cooling.

    These cooling channels means there's more volume of fuel left in the system at cut-off, and the burn ends up being slightly longer. Musk has stated that this didn't show up as a problem on the test stand because of the pressure difference at sea level versus the near vaccuum where staging occured. 14.7 psi across a half-meter or so rocket nozzle amounts to a few thousand pounds of thrust. However, if you watch the test videos they've published, there's noticeably more flame after cutoff in the regenerative version, so I'm frankly kind of surprised they didn't increase their timing margin.

    The end result was that the 1st stage bumped back into the 2nd stage after separation, and then got toasted by and deflected flame back at the 2nd stage, apparently seriously damaging it.

    I have to nitpick one of Musk's other statements. He claimed that the performance of the first stage was picture perfect. However, while the engine appeared to perform great, it seems the avionics could have done at least slightly better. The video shows a back and forth rolling motion that is probably due to the torque created as the fuel swirls through those cooling channels. Ideally the control system would have been able to account for that smoothly.

    1. Re:New Engine by Keebler71 · · Score: 1

      I agree with your points. The summary is misleading - the problem was NOT a timing problem. The problem was not properly characterizing the first stage performance at cut-off. A SOLUTION is to adjust the timing of the separation event. I too noticed the roll oscillations,... it certainly was not a simple harmonic oscillator but I didn't think about the torque due to the regen plumming. Wouldn't that cause a nutation/coning motion since it isn't about the cg? Looked to me like the control system was bang-bang'ing in response to an external input (or bad sensor).

      --
      "It takes considerable knowledge just to realize the extent of your own ignorance." - Thomas Sowell
  32. Falcon 9 Heavy way better than Ares by Iowan41 · · Score: 1

    When they get the bugs out. All liquid, no solids. Solids should never be used for a man-rated system. It should be expandable to an ultra-heavy version out-lifting the proposed Nova.

  33. A better fix... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    IANARS, but...

    A timing fix sounds iffy- timing caused the problem in the first place.

    How about using accelerometer data instead. When g-sensors show that the booster stage has stopped thrusting, you're coasting; maybe wait a second for things to settle, and THEN start stage 2.

    Am I missing something? Or should I be a rocket scientist?

  34. Thoughts by smoker2 · · Score: 1

    I don't know the situation here. Are NASA giving SpaceX any access to their files - at all ?
    I know they are supposed to be privately financed and new from the ground up, but surely if the aim is to get the cheapest, most efficient way to orbit, then they should consider sharing their extensive knowledge and experience.
    After all, they are looking to fly their missions using this gear. And if the knowledge is available, then ALL the companies in this race could be using it. I don't see why this endeavour should suffer due to stupid IP rules.

    1. Re:Thoughts by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes and no. A lot of what NASA does has a lot of contractor proprietary material, so *can't* be shared. IE ULA won't let their competitor get plans to their rockets. However note that many SpaceX engineers are ex-NASA, ex-ULA, etc. Also, much of what we've learned are available in textbooks and in aerospace journal databases (AIAA).

  35. Hells Kitchen in Space? by Fluffeh · · Score: 1

    Pessimism, f-ck that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work.

    I think someone has been watching too much Gordon Ramsey's Kitchen shows. Seriously, I find myself swearing at times (specially after a few late ones) but if I was making a public interview after my rocket basically fizzled, I think I would be able to knock it off for a tick.

    Fucking space cowboys!

    --
    Moved to http://soylentnews.org/. You are invited to join us too!
  36. Were those... by actionbastard · · Score: 1

    metric or Imperial seconds?

    --
    Sig this!
  37. Elon Musk Is Now My Hero by curmudgeon99 · · Score: 1

    Isn't that what it's all about? Fuck that--I'm going to make it work. I needed that right about now.

    1. Re:Elon Musk Is Now My Hero by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      Cool name too, sounds like something from Iain M. Banks.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  38. Good quote by Mike610544 · · Score: 1

    "Optimism, pessimism, f-ck that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work."

    If they succeed I bet everyone will know that a hundred years from now (particularly those who survive the Earth-destroying comet because of it.)

    --
    ... also, I can kill you with my brain.
  39. Typical guy excuse... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ..."launch failure" due to a "timing problem", not anything to do with faulty equipment or expertise level. Sigh. Though I will admit the "longer thrusting" problem is somewhat atypical... Yes, it's oblig adolescent humor. I'm banking that as a chick, I can get away with it.