Flu Models Predict Pandemic, But Flu Chips Ready

An anonymous reader writes "Supercomputer software models predict that swine flu will likely go pandemic sometime next week, but flu chips capable of detecting the virus within four hours are already rolling off the assembly line. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), which has designated swine flu as the '2009 H1N1 flu virus,' is modeling the spread of the virus using modeling software designed by the Department of Defense back when avian flu was a perceived threat. Now those programs are being run on cluster supercomputers and predict that officials are not implementing enough social distancing--such as closing all schools--to prevent a pandemic. Companies that designed flu-detecting chips for avian flu, are quickly retrofitting them to detect swine flu, with the first flu chips being delivered to labs today." Relatedly, at least one bio-surveillance firm is claiming they detected and warned the CDC and the WHO about the swine flu problem in Mexico over two weeks before the alert was issued.

Comments

Hungry for breakfast . . .

[Hmmm2000]

All this talk of swines, avians, and now Pan(demic)s make me hungry for bacon & eggs.

Re:Hungry for breakfast . . .

[Anonymous Coward]

Waffles > pancakes

Re:Hungry for breakfast . . .

[mangu]

All this talk of swines, avians ...

Yeah, they are trying to rename it. In 1918 they renamed as "Spanish" a flu that actually started in Kansas. Now this weird alphanumeric code won't stick. We must find a proper name for it.

Any volunteers? Colbert, are you there?

Re:Hungry for breakfast . . .

[zxjio]

"Spanish flu" came about because all countries infected before Spain were at war and had press censorship in place. Therefore, the first real public record of the pandemic was in Spain...

Re:Hungry for breakfast . . .

[Anonymous Coward]

In Korea, only old people welcome their new Colbert Flu-carrying overlords.

Re:Hungry for breakfast . . .

[sexconker]

Pans.
You cook bacon and eggs in pans, dipshit.

Re:Hungry for breakfast . . .

[Zalbik]

All this talk of swines, avians, and now Pan(demic)s make me hungry for bacon & eggs.

Yep, if the swine flu gets any worse, I guess it will be a (wait for it)...

Hamdemic!

Re:Hungry for breakfast . . .

[aoheno]

make me hungry for bacon & eggs.

bacon => pig => swine => swine flu => pig => bacon
egg => chicken => bird => bird flu => chicken => egg

Re:Hungry for breakfast . . .

[Anonymous Coward]

Well, since this is a Human/Avian/Swine Hybrid strain of flu, I don't think we need Colbert. Why not call it HASH Flu?

Re:Hungry for breakfast . . .

[genner]

Waffles > pancakes

Pie > Cake

Re:Hungry for breakfast . . .

[myotheruidis6digits]

I don't know who I'm stealing this from, but 'hamthrax'.

Re:Hungry for breakfast . . .

[badkarmadayaccount]

make me hungry for bacon & eggs.

bacon => pig => swine => swine flu => bird flu => chicken => egg =>

|^|<-----------ignorethisnotice-----------ignorethisnotice-------------ignorethisnotice

=> egg => chicken => bird => bird flu => swine flu => pig => bacon |^|

FTFY.

why just schools?

[Anonymous Coward]

shouldnt everywhere close at well? or are adults immune?

Re:why just schools?

[Anonymous Coward]

Children are good carriers. Kill the children, it's the only way for humanity to survive.

Re:why just schools?

[Dr_Banzai]

A few deaths are acceptable to keep the economy running. We're talking millions or billions of dollars of lost economic activity.

Re:why just schools?

[fuzzyfuzzyfungus]

The state doesn't exactly have jurisdiction over businesses the way they do (public) schools. Things would have to be far nastier than they are for some sort of state-of-emergency declaration and the shutdown of private businesses to be politically palatable.

Re:why just schools?

[Hadlock]

I think what you're trying to say here is that unless they declare martial law, closing schools and putting pressure on sporting event center owners is about all they can do to stem this. Unless you're President Madagascar (someone link to the image, thanks in advance)

Re:why just schools?

[eln]

How long after we kill the children would one have to wait to use the old "repopulating the Earth" line to get women in bed? I ask merely out of curiosity.

Re:why just schools?

[Anpheus]

And a percentage drop in population corresponds to a very real percentage drop in total GDP. Fewer consumers, fewer producers, and slowed growth and achievement.

I've read on Reddit and some other sites some extreme comments, one was along the lines of, "Would it really be that bad if two billion people died?" Yes. Complete meltdown of the social order. That doesn't mean, yay "The caste system in India will be abolished." Yes, there are still prejudices in India against people of the lower caste. No, it means "Fallout (the game) style anarchy, city states and guns for hire... yay?"

Here's the thing, there are entirely reasonable responses, and irrational responses to this crisis. Reasonable responses are like the closing of a school when several students are confirmed to have the virus, or expensive testing of hospital staff for the virus, or even, if a major outbreak occurs, closing down public venues.

Why is this reasonable? Because the moral and economic cost of a widespread pandemic that kills millions or billions of people far outweighs the paltry economic cost of closing down... a school, or a mall. And if it becomes a pandemic, and thousands or hundreds of thousands are known to be infected in a major city, it's for the good of the rest of the nation and the world at large to limit the spread of the disease and close borders and limit travel. Because to do otherwise is insanity. This isn't like throwing billions of dollars at "terrorism" and fighting an ideology, a battle that can't be won. Fighting disease is something we can, and have defeated in the past. Come on, we've damn near wiped out polio, and we actually defeated smallpox.

This is money absolutely well spent. If even 1% of people get this, and 1% of those people die, that's nearly a million deaths. If either of those figures grows by an order of magnitude, it's death on the scale of the Holocaust. And you wouldn't argue that the industrial engine of the Nazi regime is more valuable than their lives, would you?

P.S.: You got Godwined.

Re:why just schools?

[Anonymous Coward]

That depends. How long would it take you to wash a child's blood off your hands?

Re:why just schools?

[Gerzel]

About a good minute or so with plenty of soap and running water, no more than three and that's if you're up to the elbows.

Re:why just schools?

[Gerzel]

uhm no. You did not Godwin the previous poster. You did it to yourself.

Re:why just schools?

[Chabo]

And if it becomes a pandemic, and thousands or hundreds of thousands are known to be infected in a major city...

Nuke it from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

Just hope that it doesn't feed on nuclear energy, like the Andromeda Strain does.

Re:why just schools?

[Anonymous Coward]

Eh, a few minutes is all... heyyyy, i see what you were trying to do there, you nearly got me there.

You sneak!

Re:why just schools?

[Anonymous Coward]

So right, 5 minutes it is.

Re:why just schools?

[Darkness404]

(someone link to the image, thanks in advance)

Um, on /. its not a good idea to ask for images... because most of the images on /. are Goatse, and I don't think you want Goatse, unless the President Madagascar is really the Goatse guy...

Re:why just schools?

[OeLeWaPpErKe]

You know, this has all happened before. What's the worst that can happen ?

Well this is what happened last time : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

In short : 1/20 of the people who were infected died of the infection. This is a number that is too simplified : just about every baby infected died, as did just about every infected person over 75. Least affected were people between 5 and 20 years old.

Worldwide, the pandemic killed about 1% of the population. This totaled about 100 million people. The number is not well known since many hard-hit regions did not have data available : e.g. both the ottoman empire itself, and it's many enslaved populations went nearly totally unaccounted, it is quite certain that tons of black slaves of the muslims died totally untreated, and their numbers are not accounted for at all.

Just about every system in existence, whether related to health care or not was either abandoned or swamped. Entire factories were converted into hospitals, and basically nothing of the economy was operational. Trade, sea travel, ... all worked at severely diminished capacities. Hospitals emptied of docters and nurses, since they very quickly either ran, or became infected and sick themselves.

The pattern was similar to what were seeing today. The virus is present in one form of another in humans and a variety of animals, mainly chickens, monkeys of various species, pigs, goats and sheep. The pandemic was not a single virus but several similarly mutated forms of what is thought to have originated from a single strand. There were "warning" epidemics that started, but failed to cause the disaster the eventual strain caused, like we've seen today with the various small bird flew infections, the slightly bigger epidemics in malaysia and indonesia, and now the mexican outbreak.

Attacking these animals makes no sense, since the same pattern was observed then, and now : the dangerous strain jumped ONCE from animal to human (presumably ... it is also possible the virus mutated inside humans) and then only from human to human. If you want to prevent the infection from getting into a specific region, it's humans you need to worry about (e.g. an American military commander isolated Samoa using military force, which was spared the epidemic)

Please note that while we are capable of testing for the surface proteins of a virus (H1 is such a protein N1 is another) there are dozens of strains with the same surface features. It takes VERY expensive and time consuming tests to determine exactly which strain a patient has, and is rarely done at all, since there is no difference in treatment (despite all our medical knowledge, treatment for a virus infection is basically to make the patient comfortable and make sure he eats healthy).

Because of these limitations, there is very little information known about which strains and which genes were involved in causing the pandemic, and we have no data whatsoever about which genes went to which geographical regions.

Re:why just schools?

[savanik]

The CDC has 141 confirmed cases of Swine Flu. Of those, 1 death has been recorded, in an infant in Texas who already had serious medical complications.

With 20,000 to 30,000 dying yearly of flu complications in the U.S., 1 death is hardly a significant statistic, and certainly not indicative of a pandemic. The WHO is, again, overreacting and fearmongering. The CDC has the most reliable information on the topic for Americans - not sure what equivalent other countries have. I certainly hope you're not relying on the WHO.

Re:why just schools?

[sexconker]

2 billion?
We need to kill off 6 billion so we can get down to 1 billion.

Anarchy? Guns for hire? Sign me up.
You plebes may fear for the destruction of your precious system, but real humans will see it as an opportunity.

Re:why just schools?

[sexconker]

Healthily.

You eat healthily.
You sing lovelily.
You act sillily.

Re:why just schools?

[fuzzyfuzzyfungus]

Are you, by any chance, secretly a lion?

Re:why just schools?

[Erikderzweite]

>And a percentage drop in population corresponds to a very real percentage drop in total GDP. Fewer consumers, fewer producers, and slowed growth and achievement.
But GDP per capita will raise and that's a good thing (for the survivors). Each individual will get more eventually.

Re:why just schools?

[fuzzyfuzzyfungus]

http://media.photobucket.com/image/president%20madagascar%20shut%20down%20everything/CaptainFailcon/SHUTDOWNEVERYTHING.jpg

Re:why just schools?

[fugue]

Kill the children, it's the only way for humanity to survive.

Nah. Older people who drive cars use far more resources, produce far more toxic byproducts, and have a much greater effect on the climate change that tends to be a driving factor for these pandemics. Humanity is much more likely to survive if we kill them (er, us) instead. Besides, older people have less to lose.

Re:why just schools?

[testpoint]

"Would it really be that bad if two billion people died?"

Well, the doctor interrupted me just about then,
Sayin, "Hey I've been havin' the same old dreams,
But mine was a little different you see.
I dreamt that the only person left after the war was me.
I didn't see you around."

Well, now time passed and now it seems
Everybody's having them dreams.
Everybody sees themselves walkin' around with no one else.
Half of the people can be part right all of the time,
Some of the people can be all right part of the time.
But all the people can't be all right all the time
I think Abraham Lincoln said that.
"I'll let you be in my dreams if I can be in yours,"
I said that.

Bob Dylan

Re:why just schools?

[fugue]

And a percentage drop in population corresponds to a very real percentage drop in total GDP. Fewer consumers, fewer producers, and slowed growth and achievement.

While that may be true, you forget the consequences. For centuries, economists have been arguing that a growing population is essential to a strong economy and culture. Well, that's as may be, but there's a limit to the number of people that the earth can support. Depending on behaviour, we are either fast approaching or have vastly exceeded this hard limit (where "hard limit" means not that the limit can't be moved, but that it exists and that when it's reached ecosystems (including people) start dying).

If a few billion people die off due to a pandemic, that would go a hell of a long way towards reducing, say, greenhouse gas emissions (especially if there are lots of deaths among the rich, unlikely though that may be). Global warming is projected to kill billions in the worst case, and even if global warming makes less trouble than our best scientists expect, what happens when there is no more clean surface water? Or when erosion due to deforestation washes a few more billions of cubic meters of topsoil out to sea? Or ...

We seriously, urgently need an economy that is not based on growth. For a while, we need one that is based on a shrinking population, and then we need to transition towards one that is based on a roughly constant population. Economists don't like this, but it's a fact of life.

Of course, killing a few billion people will not help: we'll just keep reproducing. It would be pretty convenient if we first figured out how many people we should have on the planet, and then took steps to stabilise the population, and then a few billion died off to help us get there quickly. That's not what's happening here.

I've left compassion out of this argument. Of course compassion is important, but it does not provide any means for sidestepping the fact of limited carrying capacity. And the quicker we act, the more compassionately we will be able to act.

Re:why just schools?

[Zarluk]

No! Follow Jello Biafra's advice: Kill the poor!

Re:why just schools?

[Zarluk]

A few deaths are acceptable to keep the economy running. We're talking millions or billions of dollars of lost economic activity.

Are you quoting who? Dr. Strange Love?

Re:why just schools?

[Anonymous Coward]

By the time several students are confirmed to have the virus, it is too late.

Re:why just schools?

[Anonymous Coward]

http://i286.photobucket.com/albums/ll100/CaptainFailcon/SHUTDOWNEVERYTHING.jpg

Re:why just schools?

[ChromeAeonium]

Fighting disease is something we can, and have defeated in the past. Come on, we've damn near wiped out polio, and we actually defeated smallpox.

Just a nitpick, but I really don't think you really can compare present disease with past disease like smallpox. We eradicated smallpox with vaccines, but that was before Wakefield's Epic Trolling and the fears that mercury/aluminum/formaldehyde/anything and everything in vaccines causes autism/cancer/AIDS/diabetes/criminal behavior (I shit you not, I once read something that claimed vaccines cause criminal behavior). If you were to try a widespread vaccination program today, like the one the WHO used to get rid of smallpox, I don't think it would work. For it to be really successful, as in getting rid of something for good, I think we'd need fairly large segments of the population to get vaccinated so the disease has nowhere to go, and now, too many people think that vaccines are proof that 'they' are out to get them in some vague nefarious plot. Vaccines wiped out smallpox and have polio on the ropes, but they now, unfortunately, have way too many imaginary problems associated with them to have the same stopping power.

Re:why just schools?

[Buelldozer]

Expand to the stars, problem solved.

Re:why just schools?

[digitalunity]

Just to clarify, the earth has a finite limit on the number of humans it can support, but that number is based on a multitude of factors.

The most important of which is the geopolitical policies we have in place that influence the efficiency of our food distribution systems. Right now, we're pretty piss poor as the US has to much food, as do a lot of areas in europe. Most of africa has too little food, or devotes a much higher percentage of their GDP to food production because of the difficulty in farming in their regions. I have no doubts the earth can support 6 billion people, but not very effectively given our current political climate of largely ignoring africa.

I have nothing against an economy that promotes growth, but at the same time I wish to see less social programs ensuring seniors can collect paychecks for doing nothing. If a person made it to 65 years old can't work and didn't have the foresight to save a retirement while he was working, I say let him starve.

Our current social security program is kind of like a pyramid scheme, with old people on top. We need a bigger and bigger pool of people contributing to social security for the pyramid to be solvent. If the young stop contributing, the pyramid collapses.

The only alternative then is to force people to provide their own retirement.

Re:why just schools?

[Anonymous Coward]

Fair and valid point, but at the end of the day, life > moneys.

Re:why just schools?

[rmccoy]

"We seriously, urgently need an economy that is not based on growth."

Yes, I agree completely. But can anyone cite studies of how such an economy might work? What form it would take? Do we even have a clue how to think about it, much less transition to it?

Re:why just schools?

[BarefootClown]

It's also worth noting that the one in Texas was only brought to Texas after his local medical system was unable to deal with his illness.

For all its flaws, the American medical system is tremendously capable. You may legitimately complain about access and availability, but our healthcare system is second to none in terms of dealing with advanced, unique, or otherwise "interesting" (as Dr. House would say) illnesses.

That's important to consider in the mortality statistics for two reasons. One, because the CDC numbers show a near-zero mortality rate in the US. I believe it should properly be zero simply because it's inappropriate to count against us a patient who was severely ill to begin with--it's like starting a baseball team in the bottom of the ninth with two outs, then crediting them with a loss. I fully expect this disease to be a relative fizzle in the US, with very little effect above any other "normal" flu year.

The second reason is that--precisely because we have an atypically-good medical system--other nations are likely to see a greater effect. That's going to lead to all sorts of interesting economic effects, and probably diplomatic effects as well. I'm going to be very interested to see how China, Africa, et al. handle things.

Re:why just schools?

[xbytor]

Finally, we have a good reason to 'think of the children!'.

Re:why just schools?

[Anpheus]

Considering the validity of the analogy, I would say it's appropriate to say he got Godwined.

Is there a single universal definition of the verb form, anyway?

Re:why just schools?

[Anpheus]

As long as they remain a minority, it will work. If 99% of people are vaccinated, the 1% will have so much less contact with each other that isolation is vastly more feasible. I believe similar studies have been done and there are case studies being made of some poor kids in California whose affluent parents decided their kids were too tough to need childhood vaccines.

The schools were safe until the minority grew to the point where it could spread quickly. If only one kid in the school hadn't had any shots, there would be no contagion. How could there be?

Re:why just schools?

[mokus000]

What's the point of trolling if you tell us you're doing it?

Re:why just schools?

[Anonymous Coward]

Unfortunately, once you start adding possessives, not everyone agrees.

For some, "my money > their life".

Re:why just schools?

[mdwh2]

For centuries, economists have been arguing that a growing population is essential to a strong economy and culture. ... We seriously, urgently need an economy that is not based on growth. For a while, we need one that is based on a shrinking population, and then we need to transition towards one that is based on a roughly constant population. Economists don't like this, but it's a fact of life.

I'm not sure this is true - surely many Western countries have little population growth, or in some cases near zero?

If anything, sudden population growth can be a problem, as decades later you'll have a surge of people who are retired, and the economy can't support them.

Re:why just schools?

[Gerzel]

Heh, I always heard it as "The article/thread/whatever got Godwined" Thus the thread up until the point of nazis was valid, and sometimes the first couple of nazi-mentioning posts as well.

Also according to some ways I've heard it the poster in question must actually compare someone to nazis not just mention them.

As well, Godwin does not apply when Nazis would come up in the normal course of the subject matter; lets say for example a discussion on European Politics or History in the 20th century.

Re:why just schools?

[Anpheus]

Or the potentially preventable death of possibly millions of people?

Re:why just schools?

[kalirion]

Not when the problem is SPACE FLU.

Re:why just schools?

[Buelldozer]

Pigs in Space?

Bork bork bork

Leading Edge Technology

[mrbene]

uses a technique known as "data mining" to automatically search tens of thousands of Web sites daily for early signs of looming medical problems

Wowzers. People were complaining about being sick on the internets before they went to the hospital? Someone call Ron Paul.

Make Money Fast!

[wsanders]

"Veratect, based in Kirkland, Wash..."

"The company...has tried unsuccessfully to sell its service to the CDC"

"Rep. Norm Dicks, D-Wash., who talked with the CDC, the Department of Homeland Security and other agencies..said the federal government had made a mistake in not purchasing the company's program"

I think there's a "Dicks for Sale" joke in there somewhere.

Re:Make Money Fast!

[superdave80]

I'd buy it, as long as it is sold in a box.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhwbxEfy7fg

What's the point?

[try_anything]

What's the point of closing schools if the virus isn't virulent enough to burn itself out? If it's about as severe and durable as the garden-variety flu strains that circulate everywhere anyway, then it will continue to circulate in Mexico indefinitely, and wherever else it establishes itself. We can't exterminate it any more than we can exterminate other moderate strains of flu.

So when we reopen the schools, borders, or whatever else people are screaming for, the swine flu will be there waiting... waiting to make us cough and hack and stay home from work... waiting to kill children, the weak, the elderly... waiting... just like the regular garden-variety flu that we get every year.

(I'm not a biologist, I'm just baiting a real biologist to correct or clarify anything I got wrong. Please and TIA.)

Re:What's the point?

[slashkitty]

The main point is to delay and ultimately prevent the spread if it has a high fatality rate. 100 cases and 1 death don't give us a 1% fatality rate... we have to make sure those 100 people recover.

While we delay the spread, we can learn more about the disease and maybe produce a vaccine.

Re:What's the point?

[More_Cowbell]

I'm no biologist either, but isn't the "regular garden-variety flu that we get every year" a new strain (or more than one) every year? And don't they have a new vaccine for the strain they expect to be prevalent that particular flu season?

So wouldn't it be great if the spread was halted long enough for a vaccine for this new strain to be developed?

Re:What's the point?

[Anonymous Coward]

The point is to delay the spread so that infections don't happen all at once and overwhelm the health system. See this article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/30/health/30contain.html

Re:What's the point?

[try_anything]

That is an excellent answer and the first sane article I've read about the issue.

Still, I'm not convinced it's worth it. What's the maximum N for which we should keep N thousand students out of school for a month to save a life? We're leaving it up to somebody to answer that question for us. Who is it?

Re:What's the point?

[blueskies]

I'm no biologist either, but isn't the "regular garden-variety flu that we get every year" a new strain (or more than one) every year?

In the same way that Windows 3.11, Windows XP/Vista, BEos, VXWorks, and Linux are all just new strains of operating systems. Aren't they all just about the same?

IANAMB, but wikipedia is your friend:
genetic/antigenic drift (ie: POSIX compatible versions of each other):

Antigenic drift[1][2] is the process of random accumulation of mutations in viral genes recognized by the immune system. Such accumulation may significantly change the antigens of the virus, and may help it evade the immune system. This process may lead to a loss of immunity, or in vaccine mismatch when one of the strains selected for the vaccine doesn't optimally match the circulating strains."

genetic/antigenic shift:

the process by which at least two different strains of a virus, (or different viruses), especially influenza, combine to form a new subtype having a mixture of the surface antigens of the two original strains. The term antigenic shift is more often applied specifically, (but is not limited) to the influenza literature, as it is the best known example (e.g. visna virus in sheep[1]). Antigenetic shift is a specific case of reassortment or viral shift that confers a phenotypic change.

Re:What's the point?

[jaypifer]

You are correct. However, people don't get fired if they do something.

Scenario 1: A school closes down, then weeks later they get the swine flu. Well, the school can say they did what they could.

Scenario 2: A school doesn't close down and they get the swine flu. Complaints will flow in from angry parents about why the didn't *do* something. Heads could roll, etc.

Re:What's the point?

[Anonymous Coward]

We'll close schools to keep kids isolated so they don't get sick, but we have problem letting sick people fly, drive, walk, etc. into the country to spread the disease to areas not affected. Does anyone else see the folly in "well, it's already here, so restricting international travel isn't going to do anything" argument?

Re:What's the point?

[Anonymous Coward]

Scenario 3: A school closes down, then weeks later there aren't any more cases of swine flu. Complaints will flow in from angry parents about why they overreacted. Heads could roll, etc.

Re:What's the point?

[jaypifer]

Dubious, this is projected to be the first pandemic in 50 years. They can't be too cautious.

Re:What's the point?

[Hurricane78]

Yes, but still, it's just a flu. Of course old and badly medicated people can die from it. But we've all had some flu. You get fever, take some specific antibiotics, and lay in bed for some days. And then you are ok again.

What's all the fuss about? I mean this swine flu is no disease that we don't have any antibiotics against, and it also is no super-killer-flu is it?

I mean the original patient one is alive and well.

If I didn't know better, I'd say that all this is a plot to get us allow them do something evil... like implant "flu" chips into everyone...

Re:What's the point?

[Anonymous Coward]

omg, antibiotics don't work against viruses. i thought that was common knowledge by now.

Re:What's the point?

[try_anything]

100 cases and 1 death don't give us a 1% fatality rate... we have to make sure those 100 people recover.

100 cases and 1 death don't give us a 1% fatality rate, because we have to take into account the people who got sick and didn't seek medical attention.

Anyway, where do you get those numbers? I thought the latest word was that it might not be any more fatal or infectious than normal. And since nobody has told me what the original fear of high mortality was based on (unless it was the 12 dead out of 312 confirmed cases in Mexico, a terrible statistic to base a mortality estimate on) I'm not inclined to buy into it.

Re:What's the point?

[Anonymous Coward]

Antibiotics are for bacteria. Flu is caused by a virus. Nonetheless, much of what you say seems to be applicable to this, yes.

Re:What's the point?

[cmdr_tofu]

Please, read the following: http://www.birdflubook.com/
Then you will know the difference between the common flu (which sucks), and a the dreaded pandemic.

Re:What's the point?

[Anonymous Coward]

omg, antibiotics don't work against viruses

Yeah, but you're supposed to take them anyway. Nobody knows why.

Re:What's the point?

[moderatorrater]

If we can slow the spread, then the more virulent mutations will burn themselves out and we'll be left with a strain that is, for all intents and purposes, just the same as the moderate ones we get. The ability to spread easily from one person to another is one of the things that makes flus become more lethal (packing hundreds of chickens together in an enclosed space, battlefield hospitals, etc). So, slowing it down absolutely helps in the long run.

Re:What's the point?

[m.ducharme]

I also am skeptical of the current claims about the infectious rate and the death rate. I was watching on t.v. (take with a grain of salt) a scientist here in Ontario who pointed out that given what we know about the virus' virulence there may have been one- or two hundred thousand cases of this flu by now in Mexico, that have simply gone unreported because people haven't gotten sick enough to go to the hospital. If that's the case, and if we can believe the current figure on deaths out of Mexico, then this flu isn't any more deadly than your garden variety seasonal flu.

Re:What's the point?

[Hurricane78]

How is this a troll?!

These were no fully rhetorical questions. And if that stuff is so OMGWTFBBQ deadly, then how come that we're (including Mexicans, etc.) not all dead already?

The whole thing is just a giant FUD and media spectacle, that is wayyy out of the appropriate reaction zone. I bet there are many diseases that are worse and are killing more people spreading every single year.

Re:What's the point?

[Hurricane78]

Ok, you're right. The antibiotics are for the bacteria that have an easy game, spreading in the weakened immune system.

Well, I survived flues many times. So this flu does not scare me any more than any other one.

Re:What's the point?

[Hurricane78]

Who says this? Your doctor? Well, hit him in the face, and tell him you recommend antibiotics against it, reasoning in the same way he does. ^^
(Oh, and remember not to ask him anything again after this. ^^)

Re:What's the point?

[Anonymous Coward]

The reason the system is even remotely close to being overloaded is because of the huge media scare. If they weren't scaremongering the public into thinking they're going to die if they sneeze then most people wouldn't even consider going to the doctor just to get diagnosed for the common cold.

Re:What's the point?

[Maxo-Texas]

Friend of mine told me the spanish flu came in 3 waves

wave 1 was weak and contagious.
wave 2 was strong and contagious.
wave 3 was virulent and contained itself by killing the host before it could spread.

Apparently, there were a lot of survivors of wave 3 among those who had gotten sick in wave 1 or 2.

I always thought that these contagions got weaker as they spread (or less likely to kill the host at least).

anyone have some good links about this particular subject? I googled but didn't find much.

Re:What's the point?

[blueskies]

Yes, but still, it's just a flu.

And HIV/AIDS is JUST a virus like the flu. Why do people worry about things that are "just" viruses?

We still don't know if it's not a super-kill flu. When we have 10,000 infected and only 0.1% deaths, we'll really know better. When we had 60 confirmed cases and 1 death, that was close to a 2% fatality rate.

Of course old and badly medicated people can die from it.

Explain to me why the 1908 "just" flu had a mortality rate of 50% in army units. Oh, because just maybe it had a huge mortality rate on the 20-50 age range and the people that had strong immune systems?

Re:What's the point?

[blueskies]

Because you are being stupid. Educate yourself a just a little bit, so the rest of slashdot doesn't have to bitch slap you up a couple of IQ points.

No one is concerned that it is going to kill 100% or even 50% of the population. Mexico was at a 7.5% mortality rate of suspected infections.

7.5% of the entire population is a large number. The more we can slow down it's spread, the more time we will be able to evaluate the flu, the more time we have to produce vaccines and antivirals, and the less likely we'll have a viral "slashdot" affect on the hospitals. Picture 50 million hospitalized in one week versus 10,000 a week.

There are worst disease killing people, but they don't spread at the rate an airborne one does (250 million * 5% mortality rate (is hopefully 0.1%)).

Re:What's the point?

[blueskies]

Because you are being stupid. Educate yourself a just a little bit, so the rest of slashdot doesn't have to bitch slap you up a couple of IQ points.

No one is suggesting that it will be a 100% or even 50% mortality rate. The numbers in mexico looked like a 7.5% mortality rate, but none of it was confirmed because testing takes time.

It's highly infectious once it spreads to millions of people, it's too late if your THEN find out it has a high mortality rate. Just because it takes weeks to infect the entire population doesn't mean we should wait until then to do something.

Go travel to mexico if your balls are as big as your talk. Go get infected so you can get immunity to it. It won't kill you, right?

Re:What's the point?

[Anonymous Coward]

I hope someone injects you with the 1918 version of the flu that kills the young and the strong. It will be funny hearing you talk tough with fluid filling your lungs.

*rasp* *rasp* *bubble* I'm not *cough* afraid of the *rasp* flu.

Re:What's the point?

[mdwh2]

Heads could roll, etc.

*pictures the scene* Angry parents turn up to the school, to be greeted by the headmaster rolling around on the floor.

I'm not worried.

[RobertB-DC]

I've already read World War Z, so I'm not worried -- I'm prepared.

You don't have to reload a blade.

Re:I'm not worried.

[Chabo]

You don't have to reload a blade.

Yes, but after only a few uses of a blade, it will start to chip and break, and if you don't clean the blood off of it right away, it will make some serious pits in the metal.

A blade is a good thing to have, but should never be used as a primary weapon. Depending on the type of zombies you're facing, you may not even want them within your blade's reach (think of Boomers from Left 4 Dead, or other zombies where bodily fluid contact is a very bad thing).

Re:I'm not worried.

[PitaBred]

Even 'regular' zombies swarming. You don't want to be close to that. Did you see Shaun of the Dead? That's what'll happen if you don't have guns. You'll be swarmed until the army runs over everyone.

Re:I'm not worried.

[Anonymous Coward]

What are you talking about? I use five blades at a time, and I still have to reload them after only a few uses.

Re:I'm not worried.

[chub_mackerel]

Good thing. Zack may already be on its way...

http://boingboing.net/2009/04/08/gentleman-in-new-orl.html

Re:I'm not worried.

[RobertB-DC]

Is it wrong, that in Shaun of the Dead, I think Ed comes out the best of all the characters at the end? Condemned to an eternity playing videogames in a shed. I could think of worse fates.

Fear Mongering for Sales?

[Sethra]

If you trace back to the original EETimes article (http://www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=217201126) you'll see this in the opening paragraph:

Swine flu may have been caught early enough to prevent a serious U.S. epidemic, according to computer models developed by Virginia Tech's Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory (NDSSL).

So why is this Slashdot story claiming:

"Supercomputer software models predict that swine flu will likely go pandemic sometime next week"

So is the author just panicking unnecessarily or is this another case of using fear tactics to push an agenda, in this case boosting sales of a flu detection chip?

Re:Fear Mongering for Sales?

[rorin]

Even better, the blog author's "source" is the article on EETimes written by ...the blog author.

Re:Fear Mongering for Sales?

[airuck]

I designed a parallel PCR detection system for that is definitive, more sensitive, faster, and a hell of a lot cheaper. I'll bet a lot of other people have, too. If higher resolution is needed, then you could simply couple it with a pyrosequencer. There are many ways to skin this cat.

Re:Fear Mongering for Sales?

[jaypifer]

+1

Excellent, a critical reader...the world needs more of you.

Re:Fear Mongering for Sales?

[mowall]

Someone mod parent up please!

Re:Fear Mongering for Sales?

[Anonymous Coward]

The chip mentioned in this article will *never* be used for detecting an outbreak. The CombiMatrix chip high-density, extremely expensive chip (~$800 per chip, needs a reader that costs ~$200,000). Research only!

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/04/090428225358.htm

This flu chip, called appropriately enough called 'FluChip', is low density, cheap, and easy to read. It was developed in part by the CDC. If you check out the company that has the rights to it, you'll see that they have signal amplification technology that lets you read the chip by eye if necessary. See http://www.indevr.com/.

But here is the really screwy thing about all of this. None of these are approved by the FDA. Flu chips are an idea whose time is not quite here yet.

Re:Fear Mongering for Sales?

[Anonymous Coward]

But here is the really screwy thing about all of this. None of these are approved by the FDA. Flu chips are an idea whose time is not quite here yet.

I have to wonder how long it takes to get approved by the FDA.

One way or the other, flu season could be over by the time it gets approved.

Re:Fear Mongering for Sales?

[sowth]

I am beginning to think the entire swine flu thing is fear mongering. This flu sounds a lot like what went through my dialysis center in Feb. (I live in Idaho.) My guess is this flu has already spread through the US, it just isn't nearly the issue here because we have better medical care.

It sucked pretty bad and a lot of people got really sick. However, most of the people there are already old and have serious kidney problems, so take that into account. I think it caused serious long term complications for a few of them (they were already old and have serious health problems), but I don't think anyone died from it. As far as I know, none of the nurses / techs who got it had serious trouble more than a regular flu. Though it did cause a shortage of techs for a while.

The people who died in Mexico probably died because the healthcare isn't as good down there. If you have symptoms, go see your doctor or an "urgent/quick" care clinic and you will probably be fine. Don't be stupid and be active while you are supposed to be recovering--unless you really have to. I wouldn't waste a hospital visit on this unless it gets really bad. The hospitals are busy enough, and you probably don't have that kind of money. ;-)

Yes, there are serious problems with healthcare in the US, but don't equate it with Mexico's.

Re:Fear Mongering for Sales?

[crispytwo]

I call BS to this "pandemic".

who cares... it's just a flu.

If only it could decimate the population so I can go on living as an undertaker. We'd be so much better off it it were a serious pandemic.

A "pandemic" it is not. Just another example of people reaching for something to talk about! Boring! Get a life and talk about something interesting.

All these overly self important reporters talking about the next worrisome shit. "Ah the sky is falling!" - "The earth is over-heating!" - "GM is going bankrupt!" - "People are getting sick!" - "OMG something is happening outside my window!" - "The rainbow signifies that the earth is going to blow up!"

bah!

Re:Fear Mongering for Sales?

[Anonymous Coward]

You only need three things to happen for a pandemic to be declared:

1. Emergence of a disease new to a population.
2. Agents infect humans, causing serious illness.
3. Agents spread easily and sustainably among humans.

One and two have already happened.

Revelance to summary.

[GammaStream]

First link seems like astroturfing. A better link would of been [NDSSL @ Virgina Tech], where the research is being done.

Re:Revelance to summary.

[A Friendly Troll]

First link seems like astroturfing. A better link would of been [NDSSL @ Virgina Tech], where the research is being done.

Have.

Fucking HAVE.

Re:Revelance to summary.

[maxume]

I feel misled.

Re:Revelance to summary.

[Anonymous Coward]

Would've is more appropriate to what he was trying to say since he essentially wrote the pronunciation for the contraction.

Re:Revelance to summary.

[Anonymous Coward]

He missed f-ing RELEVANCE.
And his sig is quite appropriate in this case.

Re:Revelance to summary.

[Anonymous Coward]

Sorry, I meant YOUR sig.

Re:Revelance to summary.

[Anonymous Coward]

-1 vitriolic
-1 unnecessary
-1 pedantry
+1 i'm sick of hearing it too, however.

Re:Revelance to summary.

[Anonymous Coward]

I actually gave up correcting stuff like this.. there's no point.

Re:Revelance to summary.

[kalirion]

Have.

Fucking HAVE.

Sentence fragments.

Fucking SENTENCE FRAGMENTS.

Re:Revelance to summary.

[Anonymous Coward]

"Would of" is no sentence fragment, fucking or not, it's just bad grammar.

Re:Revelance to summary.

[Anonymous Coward]

"Fucking HAVE." is a sentence fragment. Whether or not it's fucking is debatable.

No big deal...

[hackingbear]

As long as the governments keep drumming up the alert messages, nothing terrible will happen. Disaster only strikes when there are not enough media coverage!

I really don't understand

[brkello]

Flu season kills more than this strain will. Why isn't there a pandemic panic when we get the flu every year? This all seems so overblown to me. If this is a 5 on the scale that goes to 6, how is it that the regular flu doesn't push us to 6 with the number it kills. All these travel restrictions when you are more likely to be killed in any number of ways. The media is out of control on this one.

Re:I really don't understand

[digitalderbs]

The fear is the mortality rate. Sure, the "regular" flu kills 35000 a year, but that's a mortality rate of 0.1%. This flu, if it's like the 1918 H1N1, which we already know it is *not*, could be much higher. Even if it's a 1% mortality rate, this is alarmingly high. (Infect 100 million Americans, 1 million die.)

Re:I really don't understand

[jedidiah]

Yeah, but the problem with that is that the actual mortality rate from the epicenter of this "epidemic" is going down as better information comes out. It seems like we got an anti-sars. We got a flood of bad information but openly presented.

Re:I really don't understand

[R2.0]

Because you have a fundamental misunderstanding of what those numbers mean. They are not a measure of lethality, but a combined measure of a number of factors. "6" isn't "fatal", it's "pandemic" - there's a difference

Re:I really don't understand

[maxume]

Part of the definition of epidemic and pandemic is that the outbreak is not expected. The normal flu occurs and spreads in a somewhat predicable fashion and mostly kills people with weak or compromised immune systems. If you get a new disease that behaves unpredictably and kills people that are otherwise healthy, it demands a different sort of attention.

Re:I really don't understand

[Anonymous Coward]

Why isn't there a pandemic panic when we get the flu every year? This all seems so overblown to me. If this is a 5 on the scale that goes to 6, how is it that the regular flu doesn't push us to 6 with the number it kills?

To me, the question is not "Why are we so concerned about this new flu outbreak in Mexico?" but instead "Why are we not more concerned about the ordinary seasonal flu?"

There's a a CDC web page that claims that "Every year in the United States, on average: ... about 36,000 people die from flu-related causes". On average one hundred people die every day from the ordinary flu.

The airlines jump all over Joe Biden for suggesting that people should avoid air travel but the real question is why the airlines aren't doing more to prevent flu transmission on their flights generally.

According to another CDC web page "[transmission of H1N1 flu] is thought to occur in the same way as seasonal flu occurs in people, which is mainly person-to-person transmission through coughing or sneezing of people infected with the influenza virus." Air travel involves being crammed in a small tube with hundreds of other people some of whom are coughing and sneezing from the flu.

I can understand that when the Wright brothers first started flying they had more pressing concerns than catching the flu - but that was a hundred years ago. There's really no excuse for airlines not to be implementing measures prevent passengers from breathing each others sneezes.

As an aside, I see all this excitement from Obama about public transportation but, for me, the big drawback to public transportation is disease transmission. And yet somehow the topic of trying to design public transportation that minimizes disease transmission doesn't even come up.

There's something about our culture where expressing a desire to avoid catching a transmissible disease is like being antisemitic - everyone gets shocked and horrified that you could even dare to say such a thing.

Re:I really don't understand

[Darkness404]

Because the ordinary flu is predictable. With the flu vaccine and a decent enough immune system, you won't get any near fatal seasonal flu. Most flu deaths come from children and the elderly. The seasonal flu follows a distinct season and is quickly and easily tracked and has a low mortality rate. On the other hand this type of Swine Flu is not predictable. There is no current vaccine and it seems to target and kill people who are otherwise healthy. This is in sharp contrast with the seasonal flu where it kills only the elderly and those with weak immune systems. Also, unlike the seasonal flu most people don't have any resistance to this form of swine flu.

Sure, the seasonal flu is deadly, but we know who it is deadly to and how to prevent and treat it. We don't with this swine flu plus the swine flu could easily mutate come this fall in time for an even deadlier flu season.

Re:I really don't understand

[Anonymous Coward]

Sure, the seasonal flu is deadly, but we know who it is deadly to and how to prevent and treat it.

Then why do we have 36,000 people a year dying from it? That's a hundred people a day (on average).

We know that the primary mechanism of flu transmission is sneezing but then we go ahead and pack hundreds of people in these narrow tubes for hours at a time (air travel).

Why don't we do something about this? As it is, if you tried to wear a face mask on a plane, you'd probably end up in Guantanamo. But what if airlines actually encouraged people to wear face masks? What if airlines handed out free face masks?

So, face masks tend to be a bit stuffy. Well, you know how some planes had those nozzles of air you could aim at yourself. What if instead the planes had nozzles of virus-free air that you could hook a face mask up to (like the jacks to plug a headphone set into). You could blow enough air through the mask to keep the humidity down and make it nice and comfortable.

The technology exists to virtually eliminate flu transmission on airplanes - but somehow the political/cultural will just isn't there to make it happen.

Re:I really don't understand

[brkello]

And how does that help the people the numbers are supposed to serve. If 6 isn't fatal, why are we scaring the crap out of people? The numbers are stupid and they are doing a poor job of informing people that actual risks.

Re:I really don't understand

[rachit]

Flu season kills more than this strain will.

How the hell do you know that? The spread of this flu has just begun.

Re:I really don't understand

[Darkness404]

Then why do we have 36,000 people a year dying from it? That's a hundred people a day (on average).

For a lot of reasons. One, the vaccine is not perfect, some years they get the strain wrong and you got a shot for nothing. Two, a lot of people don't get the flu shot, be it shortages of vaccines, cost, or the general pain of getting a shot. Three, a lot of flu deaths occur whenever the elderly are infected with the flu, and any moderately severe sickness can cause the same effects, its just that flu mutates so often and is so common that its the most typical sickness that would cause death. Four, the flu has about the same symptoms as a cold, in the workaholic culture of America where most bosses would rather you go to work half dead and spread the sickness around rather then go home, it can spread rapidly.

Why don't we do something about this? As it is, if you tried to wear a face mask on a plane, you'd probably end up in Guantanamo. But what if airlines actually encouraged people to wear face masks? What if airlines handed out free face masks? So, face masks tend to be a bit stuffy. Well, you know how some planes had those nozzles of air you could aim at yourself. What if instead the planes had nozzles of virus-free air that you could hook a face mask up to (like the jacks to plug a headphone set into). You could blow enough air through the mask to keep the humidity down and make it nice and comfortable. The technology exists to virtually eliminate flu transmission on airplanes - but somehow the political/cultural will just isn't there to make it happen.

Read http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8024605.stm which basically states that all the masks are good for is if you are sick they might help contain it. The masks are simply a placebo where the ignorant masses can buy some "protection" against an unseen foe.

Re:I really don't understand

[R2.0]

Who do you think those numbers are for? They aren't intended for the layman. They are for other health agencies and governments. It's like the richter scale or the meteor destruction scale - yes, the bigger numbers are scarier, and the news media loves reporting them, but most people have no fucking clue what they mean.

It's not like the Security alert colors - there are actual criteria used in determining the pandemic level. and they were designed to let health officials make plans and then translate that into action on a regional basis, not "Level 4 means tape up the windows."

Re:I really don't understand

[dintlu]

Every infected is likely to infect an additional 2-3.

If everyone wears the masks, disease transmission ends and the pandemic is over.

If X people wear the masks, disease transmission can be significantly reduced, even if X is a relatively small percentage of the population.

Re:I really don't understand

[Darkness404]

Every infected is likely to infect an additional 2-3. If everyone wears the masks, disease transmission ends and the pandemic is over.

Thats assuming everyone will wear their masks, never take them off, 24/7. We know this to be impossible.

If X people wear the masks, disease transmission can be significantly reduced, even if X is a relatively small percentage of the population.

Not unless the X people were infected. The masks do very, very, very, very little to protect you from swine flu. Then, those infected would have to keep them on 24/7 even when sneezing, which is unlikely because the first instinct when you are going to sneeze with those things on is to take them off.

Re:I really don't understand

[Anonymous Coward]

Read http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8024605.stm [bbc.co.uk] which basically states that all the masks are good for is if you are sick they might help contain it.

a quote from the article you cite: [British] Health workers have been told to wear [face masks], along with special gloves, if they are in contact with potential victims. So the British NHS seems to think that masks do something.

The United States CDC has this to say:
  When crowded settings or close contact with others cannot be avoided, the use of facemasks or respirators in areas where transmission of swine influenza A (H1N1) virus has been confirmed should be considered as follows:

1. Whenever possible, rather than relying on the use of facemasks or respirators, close contact with people who might be ill and being in crowded settings should be avoided.
2. Facemasks should be considered for use by individuals who enter crowded settings, both to protect their nose and mouth from other people's coughs and to reduce the wearers' likelihood of coughing on others; the time spent in crowded settings should be as short as possible.
3. Respirators should be considered for use by individuals for whom close contact with an infectious person is unavoidable. This can include selected individuals who must care for a sick person (e.g., family member with a respiratory infection) at home.

The masks are simply a placebo where the ignorant masses can buy some "protection" against an unseen foe.

If your standard is 100% protection then you could say that about anything - vaccines, facemasks, etc.

I'm not opposed to vaccines, I'm just puzzled why we're not doing more (e.g. facemasks/respirators) to prevent disease transmission in high risk situations like airlines and public transportation.

Re:I really don't understand

[Dan East]

The fear is the mortality rate. Sure, the "regular" flu kills 35000 a year, but that's a mortality rate of 0.1%. This flu, if it's like the 1918 H1N1, which we already know it is *not*, could be much higher. Even if it's a 1% mortality rate, this is alarmingly high. (Infect 100 million Americans, 1 million die.)

Actually it's not the mortality rate. We don't even know what the mortality rate is, because no-one knows how many people got sick with this in Mexico to result in the deaths. Only 16 deaths in Mexico have actually been proven to be the result of H1N1, and those 16 people had average delay of seven days before seeking medical treatment (in other words, they languished in illness for a whole week on average without any medical treatment at all).

The concern is that a lot of adults in their prime of life - those between 18 to 40 who are least likely to succumb to these kinds of infectious diseases - have died in Mexico. That is what scares the crap out of doctors. Yes, lots of people die from the flu every year, but the deaths are almost entirely comprised of geriatric individuals with compromised health and weak immune systems, who are typically already hospitalized or in nursing homes.

There is still a massive discrepancy as to why hundreds of healthy people died of something in Mexico (again, not even verified to be H1N1) and why people here in the US only see minor flu-like symptoms resulting in few days of taking it easy at home.

Re:I really don't understand

[Anonymous Coward]

Flu season kills more than this strain will.

How do you know? Please do tell.

(It might. It might not. Seasonal factors may come into play. The kind of virus we're dealing with here typically doesn't spread very well during the spring and summer seasons. It might behave differently, come autumn and early winter. It might adapt somewhat to the measures being taken now. It might mutate slightly.)

Again: How do you know?

Exactly. You don't. We'll just have to wait and see, and do what we can in order to minimize the risk. But the reality is that we don't know how serious this particular strain will be, because it hasn't disappeared yet. So: Don't be alarmist. Don't cause panic. Don't be sensationalist. But don't pretend to be a fortune teller, either. Act professionally. Find out facts. Act based on those facts.

It's really quite simple.

Re:I really don't understand

[brkello]

Oops, turned out I was right. They just announced H1NI is no more deadly that the regular flu. Way to panic everyone for no reason (directed at WHO and the media).

Three steps to profit

[140Mandak262Jamuna]

1. Write a cron job to warn CDC of impending disaster periodically.

2. Wait for a disaster

3. Shout from the roof top, "I warned! I warned!!".

4. ...

5. Profit!

Re:Three steps to profit

[InsurrctionConsltant]

1b. For extra credit, run said cron job on supercomputer.

Re:Three steps to profit

[kelnos]

Three?

Flu Chips?

[ewhenn]

Do they come coated in a powdered cheese? If so, I'll probably go through at least 3 dozen of them.

Re:Flu Chips?

[Anonymous Coward]

I know I do when I'm with Chester.

Mmmmm

[Anonymous Coward]

Pandemic with a side of flu chips sounds mighty tasty right now!

Thanks for the hype, moron

[NotBornYesterday]

TFS leads off with 'OMG! Pandemic next week!', as does the tiny, uninformative blog TFS links to, despite lack of citation to a source that might be more authoritative than a 2-paragraph pseudo-article. Fortunately, that blog links to a story that is actually informative and somewhat related to technical matters. It leads off with the less exciting, but probably more accurate 'Swine flu may have been caught early enough to prevent a serious U.S. epidemic.' Nowhere in the eetimes.com article does it say a pandemic is predicted within a week, and nowhere in the blog TFS links to is there a citation for the author's pandemic prediction.

I'm not saying the disease isn't serious, but will someone please beat some sense into the fearmonger who cut/pasted this shitty summary together? It makes my eyes hurt just to read it, and stinks of someone trying to drive up their blog's hit count.

Re:Thanks for the hype, moron

[moteyalpha]

I have to agree on that and add that as somebody who has done cloning and genetic testing, I see a real problem with gene chips that identify this strain.
This is off the top of my head, but, If you create a chip that matches X and it changes to Y (more deadly) it misses. Also, If you are too non-specific in the match, it falses on almost everything.
I think that it is a boondoggle to give money to the bio-chip companies who in turn make big political donations, I would guess.

Re:Thanks for the hype, moron

[thanasakis]

It makes my eyes hurt just to read it

That's why most of us skip TFA and go to the comments section straight away (^_^)

soooo hot

[MagicM]

2009 H1N1 flu virus

Colloquially known as the heinie virus of 2009.

Re:soooo hot

[Degrees]

I thought it was "The Flu Formerly Known As Swine".

Resistance is futile

[wsanders]

It isn't the dangerousness, it that no one has any resistance and everyone gets it at the same time. I work at a university and we are following our generic "epidemic" plan - no cases yet, but we would follow the same plan whether it was regular flu or the food service served bad fish for dinner, when 500+ people got sick at the same time in the same place it's a problem..

Models

[gambit3]

Yeah, and we all know how well models work in the real world.

Re:Models

[Anonymous Coward]

Wikipedia is not a reliable source. -2.

Re:Models

[maxume]

Civil and mechanical engineering are based entirely on models.

Some of the models reflect our best scientific understanding of the world. Some of them reflect ideas that have worked before and guessing (but this guessing is done very carefully).

Source?

[Darth Muffin]

"Supercomputer software models predict that swine flu will likely go pandemic sometime next week"

Source, please? Otherwise it's just more overblown panic-inducing hype. Neither the linked article, or the article it links to say this. In fact, the second article says "So far, we haven't even identified the incubation period or how long people are infectious," and if that's the case I don't see how any computer model could be accurate.

Humans, they worry too much

[whitefang1121]

We as humans have always freaked out in the face of a new threat. Then the people want the schools and the borders to close so they can fill safe even though the threat will never go away no matter how much the want it too. This so called pandemic will be no different then any other one, people will freak and start to buy flu masks and start to stay inside, but it will always be there even if we find a vaccine it will mutate and begin again, it will always be a continous rotation.

Re:Humans, they worry too much

[david_thornley]

My high-school son wants schools to close, too, and I don't think he's too worried about the pandemic.

Enough already!

[Anonymous Coward]

The only pandemic problem we're likely to have next week is the media's reporting of the influenza du jour.

Haven't you heard?

[macraig]

It's not a PROVEN epidemic until people have died or are veggetized. WHO cares about Veratect's anecdotal rumor of an epidemic? WHO's not on first!

Re:Haven't you heard?

[whitefang1121]

well in that case it is only a pandemic in mexico

Flu = distraction

[Capt.DrumkenBum]

This flu is nothing, but a distraction from the economy. Notice since the news media jumped on the flu pandemic band waggon, that the stock markets have begun recovering nicely?

Re:Flu = distraction

[maxume]

No, not really. The last week was relatively flat (the U.S. media started talking about the swine flu last weekend), the 7 weeks before that are not flat at all:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Re:Flu = distraction

[Gerzel]

Rats! Foiled again!

How DID you find out about my devious LIBERAL(conservative?) plan?!

Seriously it isn't a bandwagon they are jumping on. They would have made the jump no-matter if the others were doing it or not.

Mass Media goes for RATINGS and what will get people to watch nothing more nothing less in most cases. Yes there are some biases but by and large they are only in it for the money and power.

The political side or effect of the message is irrelevant unless they think that can give them more money or power.

Headline...

[daemonenwind]

Cluster Computer Predicts Cluster Fuck For Clustered People.

Film at 11.

Re:Headline...

[Anonymous Coward]

Is it a Beowulf Cluster?

Apply that to whichever cluster you want.

Re:Headline...

[Anonymous Coward]

Wow! The news where you are tells you when a movie is going to be on. At least they don't fear monger.

Go ahead, screw with my mind some more

[Neptunes_Trident]

I like how the WHO World Health Organization and Chipped Technology are combined together in one article. This should really bring ammunition to the opinion that one day all the people in the world will have chips embedded into their skin or whatever. I also took my liberty, (what I have left that really matters) and decided to do a WHOIS look up of the WHO.int. I had one more brain tickle, site was registered one day before 911. I am a skeptic of many opinions, but one thing is for certain, I will make it clear beyond any doubt that my body is my own. You can screw with my mind all you want. But you can't touch me. And if you assholes do, prepare to die.

Re:Go ahead, screw with my mind some more

[Neptunes_Trident]

Go ahead do a whois search, http://www.internic.net/whois.html for who.int

Re:Go ahead, screw with my mind some more

[Lorens]

Wrong: contacts were changed 2001-09-10, but the domain was registered 1998-06-05. The Internet Archive bears that out. Mod -1 Troll.

Here's some points..

[Anonymous Coward]

The main point is to delay and ultimately prevent the spread if it has a high fatality rate. 100 cases and 1 death don't give us a 1% fatality rate... we have to make sure those 100 people recover.

While we delay the spread, we can learn more about the disease and maybe produce a vaccine.

Exactly.

(A) many more people are expected to get this flu than the regular seasonal flu because humans have no immunity to this flu. In 1918 they figure half the human population eventually got it. So whatever the mortality rate is, we should extrapolate that over a higher total sick population than the regular flu.

(B) Calculating the mortality rate is hard now because there are so few cases and the reliability of the numbers are shitty. It's like trying to predict a winner off the first five minutes of exit-polling in a national election. But let's go with what we have. Mexico has ~2500 suspected (312 confirmed) cases with 169 suspected (12 confirmed) deaths. That's like 4-6% chance of dying if you get sick. There are lots of reasons to doubt these numbers or think they're unrepresentative, so let's just say it's something like 2%. Could be higher. Could be lower. But for discussion, 2%. 2% is a pretty high rate of death. Seriously. It's 1918 bad. Do you feel okay with everyone you know each taking a 2% chance of death if they get sick?

(C) The regular flu kills a lot of people per year, but it still only represents a fraction of 1% of cases.

(D) There is a lot of speculation about the "cytokine storm" factor in Mexican cases-- that this flu is more likely to kill those with strong immune systems than a normal flu. I haven't heard a lot of actual facts about this, admittedly.

(E) As said above, we're at the end of the flu season in North America. Flu viruses mutate. We have no idea what this virus will have become come October. It may be nothing, but it may be something really scary. And the fact that we're all likely to get it makes people uneasy.

(F) As much as people are saying this is a shitty time (with the economy and wars and all) to have this happen, at least we may have some time to get a vaccine going before the mystery mutated version comes along in the fall...

Not to belabor the comparison to 1918, but that was a flu that killed an estimated 2.5-5% of those infected. They say that pandemic killed up to 100 million people worldwide, or 1/3 of the current US population. This was at a time when the global population was less than 2 billion.

Re:Here's some points..

[Anonymous Coward]

To get 2%, you took 4% (mortality in confirmed cases) or 6% (mortality in suspected cases) and divided by two or three to get 2%. I don't think that's reasonable, because it assumes that people who died from swine flu when those numbers were being collected were only twice as likely to be tested for it as the average person who got it. You could just as reasonably assume that someone who died from swine flu was 100 times as likely to be tested for it. After all,

• Most people who get the flu don't seek medical attention.
• The means and practice of testing would have been available and adopted most quickly in hospitals, which is exactly where the most acute cases would be found.
• The means and practice of testing would have been disseminated most slowly to small practices and neighborhood clinics, which is where people with mild cases would be likely to seek attention.
• We might expect mortality to be lower in the United States than in Mexico.

So why not cut the 4% mortality rate in confirmed cases and divide it by fifty? Or one hundred? Or maybe, for some reason we don't understand, the proper divisor is one, and 4% is actually a reasonable estimate for overall mortality? Unless you want to flash some credentials, I'm going to assume your guess isn't any better than mine.

You would expect that people wouldn't throw around these numbers (like 12 out of 312) unless they meant something, but experience shows that people WILL throw around whatever numbers they have, even if they don't mean anything.

Re:Here's some points..

[try_anything]

Damn, how did I post that AC? For the record, it was me.

Re:Here's some points..

[rubycodez]

that death toll was just because of pneumonia, secondary infections. not a concern today. really, this whole thing stinks of someone's agenda. and note that after Baxter at least twice makes bad mistakes (one with a body count of over a hundred), they nevertheless get the vaccine contracts and also get samples of this new virus....i'd say it looks like they have a nice profit improvement process going.

Re:Here's some points..

[Anonymous Coward]

Such an apropos user name.

Re:Here's some points..

[saxoholic]

No, I am Spartacus.

Re:Here's some points..

[Rigrig]

Damn, how did he post that AC? For the record, it wasn't me.

Re:Here's some points..

[anegg]

I don't know where you get the idea that people don't have immunity to it. Here in Maryland (just a few miles from where I live), a family got sick with *probable* H1N1 Type A (still not confirmed last I knew) because the Dad was on travel with the Pres. in Mexico. His wife got it, and one of their three children got it. They all recovered with no hospital time, and said that it wasn't any worse than any other flu. The other two children never got sick. Overreacting can cause huge economic upheaval. Last I heard, there were over 100 *possible* cases of the virus in the US (based on the fact that these people are a) sick , and b) either traveled to a known source themselves or just know someone who did), but over 300 schools had been closed. Without a better indication of the virulence of this virus, it really seems like there is a giant overreaction at this point.

Re:Here's some points..

[Larryish]

12 / 312 = very small number.

Your maths are SOOOOO dum.

My Plan

[BenSchuarmer]

Try to stay at least seven people away from Kevin Bacon

Rolan P. is the Undead!!

[rts008]

This is just the boogey man du jour. Got to sell those newspapers and that ad space!

TFA is a prime example of this.
The summary first links to a blog[ad space] that links to the real article[more ad space]. The real article is also written by the author of said blog.

I will give credit for the real article being an interesting read, but why not go straight to the real article in the first place?

To top that off, the second link(also a blog) in the 'fine' article is an astroturf piece for some data mining company that's whining that WHO, CDC, and one other organization are not buying his company's services and software, and pushing an international tracking system that his company 'deserves' to be part of.[his word]

The whole point of this story was to increase adviews on two websites by the same guy, and push an astroturf on another blog.

We used to blast Roland P. for this until he finally stopped. Then shortly died...Hmmm....

There are a small handful of web sites I whitelist in Adblock+, but this crap is one of the main reasons I don't feel bad about using it in the first place.

Just use the Kermack-McKendrick model

[ibn_khaldun]

You probably don't need a supercomputer for this one: the classic Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model, which is a just a simple system of nonlinear differential equations -- http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Kermack-McKendrickModel.html -- is probably sufficient.

(Yeah, like anybody studies differential equations anymore...lazy young whippersnappers with your supercomputers...I just hope the mortality curve on this pandemic follows the 1918 model, har, har, har...and get off my lawn...)

Re:Just use the Kermack-McKendrick model

[speed of lightx2]

you need a differential equation system with delay. The big issue are the one or two weeks where an infected individual remains asymptomatic but already infectious. Solving DEs with delay is hard, and chaotic solutions are quite common. A more common modeling technique is a complex network statistical approach, such as when they modeled the whole city of Portland http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=if-smallpox-strikes-portl

A fool's errand

[Un pobre guey]

It's a fool's errand. It is better to make sure everyone is well nourished, reasonably fit, and has easy and cheap access to front line medical care; have a system of generating new vaccines as quickly as possible (takes months; can't quarantine people that long); have a good public health system, have an educated public that practices simple yet powerful techniques (wash hands, stay home when sick, etc.); and have a pharma industry that focuses more on developing useful drugs for more people (including variations in drug metabolism, etc.) than in producing "blockbuster drugs" of sometimes questionable merit.

In other words, continue doing more or less what we have always done, improving wherever and whenever possible, without panic, fear-mongering, or hyping up the threats.

The current "pandemic" is largely an exercise in ignorance, incompetence, self-delusion, opportunism, corruption, and an unhealthy dose of general idiocy.

Re:A fool's errand

[Hurricane78]

It is better to make sure everyone is well nourished, reasonably fit, and has easy and cheap access to front line medical care;

This may be possible in Mexico. But in the US? No way! Never going to happen. ^^

Re:A fool's errand

[TheRealMindChild]

(wash hands, stay home when sick, etc.);

Easy for you to say. Regardless the "protection" I have in place via the Family and Medical Leave Act, my boss will make sure I am unemployed if I don't work like a rented mule.

Do NOT give me the "Then get another job" speech. I don't have the income to support the family I have without a job more than a month. I refuse to gamble with the well being of my family. Right or wrong, that is the situation, and I am not even close to the only person in this position.

Re:A fool's errand

[Anonymous Coward]

Good think you're not unionized then.

How's that free, unfettered market working out for you now, eh? You'll get no sympathies from anyone, mule.

Re:A fool's errand

[Anonymous Coward]

> nourished, reasonably fit

Half the problem with these nasty virus is that people with the strongest immune systems die, because the immune reaction kills them.

My plan, get drunk and have as little sleep as possible for the next couple of months so my immune system is suppressed :)

Re:A fool's errand

[Anonymous Coward]

If your boss forces you to go to work when sick, at least try to cough and sneeze on him a few times, and tell your friends to do the same.

Natural selection should take care of that strategy.

This is H1N1

[shis-ka-bob]

This is similar to the 1918 killer flu. From genetic experiments, it seems that there are two critical mutations that made the 1918 flue so deadly. The virus only has RNA (no double helix here), so is mutates very rapidly. It may only be dumb luck that is separating us from a killer of 10s of millions.

Re:This is H1N1

[Anonymous Coward]

And possibly about 91 years of medical research.

Re:This is H1N1

[try_anything]

H1N1 is the most common type of human influenza. It causes a large proportional of seasonal flu illnesses. It happens to include both Spanish Flu and this new strain, as well as milder forms.

Re:This is H1N1

[More Trouble]

Perhaps what made the 1918 flu so deadly is that it arrived 26 years before penicillin.

Re:This is H1N1

[princessproton]

While that may have helped with the secondary bacterial infections like pneumonia, antibiotics have no effect on the flu virus which also led to many of the deaths.

Re:This is H1N1

[symbolset]

It may only be dumb luck that is separating us from a killer of 10s of millions.

Or it may be math. The prestrain has to infect a huge quantity of people so that it can get reproduction events up to a high enough number that an improbable critical evil mutation becomes likely. Because if you roll the dice enough times...

BTW, there are 6 times as many humans as there were then so it has to 12% as infectious or at infectious parity the evil mutation is 36 times more likely. We move around about 100 times as much so... yeah, we've got about six weeks.

Somewhere in here Reverend Malthus is having a big laugh.

Re:This is H1N1

[More Trouble]

While that may have helped with the secondary bacterial infections like pneumonia, antibiotics have no effect on the flu virus which also led to many of the deaths.

I'm just going to quote wikipedia, princess:

"The majority of deaths were from bacterial pneumonia, a secondary infection caused by influenza, but the virus also killed people directly, causing massive hemorrhages and edema in the lung."

So, yes, 1918 flu did kill some people directly, which is unusual. Just not the majority. So, the majority would have been helped had penicillin been discovered yet. Um, just like I said.

For further reading, I suggest you review the widely available layman's review of what is know of the 1918 flu. You might further review the number of yearly flu related deaths in the US.

Re:This is H1N1

[princessproton]

I'm sorry that you're angry that you got modded down. It may surprise you in your impotent interweb rage that I read that source (not only the wikipedia entry, but the actual SOURCE cited for the line you quoted, which incidentally does NOT contain a breakdown of the proportions between deaths caused by secondary infections and those directly attributable to the flu) prior to making my original posting. If you read my post, you will see that it acknowledges both the role of the secondary pneumonia infections and of the virus itself, and is in no way contradicted by what you wrote in reply, especially since you acknowledge the unusually virulent nature of the virus itself that year.

Your original post did nothing to address that poster's speculations about genetic mutation (which ostensibly would also account for why that strain of flu made one more susceptible to secondary infections than past strains had). In fact, nothing in your post indicated that you understood that antibiotics have no effect on viruses. There are enough people in this discussion, and in general, who believe taking an antibiotic will cure them of the flu, and this overuse is one of the reasons why we have an increasing problem with strains of antibiotic resistant bacteria. It was completely reasonable on my part to point out that antibiotics would not have had any impact on the viral infections.

Not a Pandemic

[phantomcircuit]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/30/health/30contain.html?_r=1

Some experts are cautiously optimistic. A computer simulation of this outbreak released Wednesday by a team from Northwestern University projected a worst-case scenario, meaning no measures have been taken to combat the spread. It predicted a mere 1,700 cases in the United States four weeks from now.

I'm sorry you were saying?

CDC

[copponex]

In this case, it's the Center for Disease Control, at least for Americans.

And in my opinion, just as important as slowing the infection to avoid overwhelming our hospitals, is also making sure the whole country isn't ill at once. It'd be a virtual petri dish, since you'd have a bunch of people spreading to the virus one another while their immune system is down, increasing the likelihood that it could mutate into something bad.

The Spanish Flu did the same thing. It was a mild flu that spread amongst a bunch of people, mutated, and then wiped out a few tens of millions as soon as it was colder. It's a different world for industrial nations than it was in 1918, but not so for southeast Asia, Africa, South America, etc.

Well my hick friends always told me

[Shivetya]

that for a black man to be President of the United States that Pigs would Fly.

I guess they were close after all.

Re:Well my hick friends always told me

[budgenator]

I've been calling it the flying-pig flu for a week now.

Not weeks

[maxume]

More like 1 or 2 days. Read the 6 or 7th entry, "How can someone with the flu infect someone else?":

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/swineflu_you.htm

Re:Not weeks

[speed of lightx2]

thanks for the link, it's the first time I see a reputable source with hard data. If true, the outlook looks more optimistic than I thought.

Re:Not weeks

[maxume]

The mortality rate of the infected appears to be quite low, which is great news (the number of confirmed infections in Mexico is going up quite a bit faster than the deaths from confirmed infections, and all of the deaths, save the Mexican boy that died in Texas, have been in Mexico. Numbers from the WHO: http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_01a/en/index.html ).

Even with the relatively short period where people are infectious but not showing symptoms, there will be plenty of people with symptoms that don't bother seeking medical care or staying away from others, so I doubt that things are on the decline just yet.

To build natural immunity in the population

[cenc]

If you can delay or slow the spread, you build natural immunity in the population the longer it is present.

Getting a vaccine any time soon is secondary pipe dream. We will develop large scale immunity faster than they will get vaccine deployed.

news should not cry wolf

[johncandale]

Avian Flu, Bird Flu. West Nile, etc. The funny part is after the fact most people who got all worried won't even feel stupid afterwords. They will just move on instead of learning something. The real tragedy is one day a real threat will happen but will be treated by people as every other time the news cried wolf

Is a pandemic really something to be worried about

[EEGeek]

People seem to panic when they hear the word pandemic. What people are not realizing is the true definition of a pandemic. It is simply a disease or sickness that is prevalent around the globe. The swine flu can go panemic, and may not kill very many people.

It seems that most people (with the exception of the 1 child in Texas that was visiting from Mexico) show relatively mild symptoms, and recover fairly quickly from this. You need to ask yourself why numerous people in Mexico die from this, and virtual no one else outside of Mexico are affected other than a few mild symptoms? (My city has around 20 cases, all have recovered at home, or are recovering, nobody hospitalized). There are a few possibilities, 1. Mexico is a third world nation and doesn't have the level of health care that US, Canada, Europe, etc have, 2. The virus may have mutated to a more mild version, 3. Mexicans have a genetic weakness to this influenza.

The media and the WHO seem to be panicing over this, but if this is a more mild form and spreads easily, why not test our defences against a true pandemic such as H5N1 that kills virtually 100% of people who contract it? This is a great way to see if we're ready to battle a pandemic.

I for one am not scared... then again the first wave of the 1918 Spanish Flu was mild, 2nd and 3rd waves killed 100 million world wide...

Anonymous Coward

[Anonymous Coward]

..they detected and warned the CDC and the WHO about the swine flu problem..

Are the WHO still touring?

I can feel it coming into my lungs!

[WormSlayer]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0wIBkoBhO4

Wake me up when...

[PRMan]

Has a US Citizen died yet? NO?!? Not a single one? Then isn't all this talk about closing stuff down and declaring martial law just a little bit premature?

The short story

[symbolset]

Malthus was right.

The first wave

[symbolset]

In the 1918 pandemic the world was swept by a mild version that killed very few and infected many. And then in six months in the biomass of humanity the mutagenic properties of influenza found a superflu that killed, by some reports, 100 million or about 10% of all living people at that time. At that, some think we were lucky. It could have been much worse.

But don't panic.

ZDP-189

[Anonymous Coward]

Look into it. :-)

Re:Is a pandemic really something to be worried ab

[mzs]

Also the pollution in and around Mexico city. Various reports on respiratory problems in Mexico city say things like 8-20% higher cases of asthma and respiratory related deaths. That might have something to do with why this flu killed so many people there and in the mountains to the east.

Whether or not it's "serious"

[AlpineR]

According to an NPR story I heard yesterday:

1) "Pandemic" is defined as a new, infectious disease spreading in at least two countries in one region and at least one country in another region. We already have the two, and the other one is likely to be confirmed next week.

2) Computer projections by two independent teams both put the number of cases in the U.S. at around 1,700 by late May.

3) The spread is exponential, so the number at four months is far higher than quadruple the number at one month, and so on.

4) A vaccine like the ones used for seasonal flu can be made, but it will take a few months to get to market. Likewise, with a known demand more drugs like Tamiflu can be made but it will take time.

So by detecting the flu while it's in just a few hundred people, we can take measures to slow its exponential growth. That buys time for countermeasures and stops the epidemic from becoming "serious". If we didn't detect the disease until it was already in 20,000 people, there would be far less time to react and a greater chance of "serious" consequences.

Lots of rocketships

[AlpineR]

Not at all, unless you're prepared to launch 210,000 people into space every day. That's the growth rate of the world population.

A little math

[AlpineR]

1 is much less than 20,000, yes. But that's 1 in 141 cases. If the entire population of the U.S. were infected and died at that rate, that'd be 2,000,000 deaths.

Some people might avoid infection, making that number lower. And many cases might be unreported, also making that number lower. But some of the current cases might yet become fatalities, making that number higher. There's a lot of uncertainty in those rates right now.

Until the disease is better understood, attempts to study and contain it are warranted. Even if it's just like an extra seasonal flu, trying to save another 20,000 lives is the humane thing to do.

Re:A little math

[OS2toMAC]

Actually, the "1" in 141 should be 0 in 140. The one child had unfortunately died came to Houston from Mexico. So far 0 US citizens, or even people living in the US, have died from 2009 H1N1.

Wait until next flu season.

[Anonymous Coward]

The real story that many ignore in their 'current' panic is this.

The flu season is pretty much over in the US, and Europe.

Once the current media fear wears off and people are going about their lives as usual, this flu will fire up again next flu season this fall, and will spread much faster.

NEXT FLU SEASON will be much worse than this current infection rates.

Simple Swine Flu Precautions:

[b93950]

Stay at home, but avoid using the internet during the hours when other are online. Wear your ineffective surgical mask and avoid buying a new one since you will need to go out in public to purchase another. Wash you hand whenever you touch your mouse. Wear eye protection whenever viewing a large screen computer. Moderators, avoiding accepting messages from all members unless they can be inspected on a webcam. Avoid downloading videos unless your computer is boiling at 212 Degrees Fahrenheit for 5-minutes prior to download.

no concern - another bogus 9/11 type event

[CommanderIsm]

i was concerned about the swine virus so i rang up the national health direct hot-line here in britain - but all i got was crackling! courtesy - the news quiz - bbc