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2012 Mayan Calendar 'Doomsday' Date Might Be Wrong

Posted by samzenpus on from the 60-day-reprieve dept.

astroengine writes "A UC Santa Barbara associate professor is disputing the accuracy of the mesoamerican 'Long Count' calendar after highlighting several astronomical flaws in a correlation factor used to synchronize the ancient Mayan calendar with our modern Gregorian calendar. If proven to be correct, Gerardo Aldana may have nudged the infamous December 21, 2012 'End of the World' date out by at least 60 days. Unfortunately, even if the apocalypse is rescheduled, doomsday theorists will unlikely take note."

144 comments

  1. Worse by eyenot · · Score: 1

    There was news about this the year before last year. And according to somebody /else/, the estimated EOW date was off by over 4,000 years.

    --
    "Stratigraphically the origin of agriculture and thermonuclear destruction will appear essentially simultaneous" -- Lee
    1. Re:Worse by Kalidor · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Indeed, no one seems to be able to calculate this. When they first tried it came to sometime in 2013. Then it got moved to 2012 for about 15 years. Then for five it was 2013 again; but no one seemed to pay attention to that five years. Then as you said, they recalculated and found it to be off by 4,000.

      I strongly get the feeling that the people who work on this to make these publication tend to ignore most of the work before them and just fail to do any sanity checks with any developments on the subject since the late eighties...

      --

      Code softly but carry a big magnet.

    2. Re:Worse by Kryptonian+Jor-El · · Score: 1

      Well, it being off by 4000 years is because of a totally different calculation, right? Wasn't there an article before saying that the whole shebang occurs at the end of 13 solar cycles, which people are claiming its only the end of the 12th. Kind of like how we started numbering at year 1, and not 0, they started numbering at solar cycle 1

      --
      All your 09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0 are belong to us
    3. Re:Worse by drachenstern · · Score: 1

      And then there's this sort of evidence that we're more like 300 years off (or 4300)

      http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~mgk25/volatile/Niemitz-1997.pdf

      --
      2^3 * 31 * 647
    4. Re:Worse by mwvdlee · · Score: 1

      What I don't understand is, the mayan numerical system is positional (it has the equivalent of a zero); how could their calendar have an end date? Were they still alive today, they could have just added another position.

      --
      Slashdot social media options: AIM, ICQ, Yahoo, Jabber and Mobile Text. Why no MySpace?
    5. Re:Worse by thehostiles · · Score: 4, Informative

      actually, they have a circular calendar. Just that most people don't quite get the concept that once it reaches their "last" date, it just goes back to the first date and keeps going.

      And the people who do get it are riddled with nutjobs that believe that a new age is upon us or something like that.

      I could care less unless the heiroglyphics depict fire reaining down upon the world... they don't do they?

    6. Re:Worse by peragrin · · Score: 1

      I always refer to it as the Mayan Y5K problem.

      their computers(real people) couldn't calculate beyond a certain point so that became the final end date. Just like Y2K. lazy programmers cause the world to burn.

      --
      i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
    7. Re:Worse by Aquina · · Score: 1

      The ultimate answer is: IT'S ALL CRAP!

    8. Re:Worse by xda · · Score: 1

      It's not crap, there are actual astronomical events that are supposed to take place. We are moving from the age of Pisces into the age of Aquarius or something like that. We can use modern science to derive the exact date of this event. That is what the Mayan calendar was based off of, who cares if our interpretation of their calendar was wrong we can look in the sky and see the reality for ourselves.

    9. Re:Worse by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not necessarily raining fire but raining bombs. It was an accurate prediction for World War 3. Have a happy decade!

  2. So then by acrobg · · Score: 5, Funny

    The apocalypse that won't happen Dec. 21, 2012 is now expected to not happen on Feb. 19, 2013...got it.

    1. Re:So then by PDX · · Score: 1

      The actual transit through the center point of the galactic elliptic will take at least a decade. With plenty of fan fair even something ridiculous can seem plausible for a brief time. Until you actually look under the hood.

    2. Re:So then by The+Wooden+Badger · · Score: 5, Funny

      Actually it is a year earlier than previously thought. December 12, 2011 is when my daughter can get her driver's license.

      --
      Heroscape, it's like legos combined with anachronistic wargames.
    3. Re:So then by Trent+Hawkins · · Score: 1

      it won't happen on the thirteenth hour or of the thirteenth day of the thirteenth month of the thirteenth year.

      It's all for the best, who wants doomsday during that terrible Smarch weather anyway?

    4. Re:So then by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ... but before that date, they will postpone it again and again until it finally happens in 2020.

    5. Re:So then by Tumbleweed · · Score: 1

      Actually it is a year earlier than previously thought. December 12, 2011 is when my daughter can get her driver's license.

      Is your daughter's name 'Sarah Connor' by any chance? Because if it is, I have a preprogrammed Austrian robot to send her for her birthday which may help us avoid or delay the Apocalypse. It speaks in a weird accent, but it IS a robot.

    6. Re:So then by Dabido · · Score: 1

      Bugger! I'd already scheduled my self in not to have an apocalypse party that night!

      --
      Sure enough, the cow costume was hanging up next to the superhero outfit and sailors uniform. (S,Spud)
  3. It probably said... by geogob · · Score: 3, Funny

    Jan. 1, 2000, 00:00 GMT

    1. Re:It probably said... by JoshuaZ · · Score: 1

      This was actually a claim that was circulating in some circles in the lead up to that date. See for example "01-01-00: The Novel of the Millennium" by R.J. Pineiro. Actually don't read it. It is stupid, awful and boring and makes Dan Brown seem smart, educated, and coherent. But the idea in question is used as a very major aspect of that novel.

    2. Re:It probably said... by animeking503 · · Score: 1

      I was sitting in my bunker with the cans of Spam and Twinkies ready for when humanity would be destroyed!

  4. Math error plus translation problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    December 21, 2012 is actually the Mayan "Year of the Linux Desktop."

    So enjoy your couple of months on top.

    1. Re:Math error plus translation problem by sloomis · · Score: 1

      Close, it is actually the relese date of Duke Nukem Forever.

  5. Plans Ruined by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Dang I already had things planned

  6. We all know when it is... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The apocalypse is obviously going to be on November 4th, 2012.

  7. Repent? Who, me? by snookerhog · · Score: 2, Funny

    so this means another 60 days of total debauchery? cool

    1. Re:Repent? Who, me? by Sean_Inconsequential · · Score: 1

      1) Sixty extra days.
      2) ?????
      3) Profit

    2. Re:Repent? Who, me? by UID30 · · Score: 1

      no no ... 2012 is an election year, so its another 60 days of douchebaggery.

      --
      "Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever." - Napoleon Bonaparte
  8. Of course they're wrong by Jackie_Chan_Fan · · Score: 1

    They predicted the end of the world, but not cell phones, breast implants or space shuttles?

    Not listed in order of importance obviously...

    1. Re:Of course they're wrong by DragonWriter · · Score: 3, Informative

      They predicted the end of the world,

      If by they you mean the Maya, then, no, they didn't predict the end of the world.

      They had a calendar which has a cycle expire at a particular time. The assignment of the "end of the world" or similar apocalyptic significance to that cycle expiration is something that was done in the 20th Century by New Age writers.

    2. Re:Of course they're wrong by UnknowingFool · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The Mayans had a Long Count calendar which was based on how many days since the day they believe creation started. They believed that this age was the fourth world and the fifth would start at the end of the Long Count. Now I'm not up to speed on the specifics but I don't think scholars have figured out what the Mayans thought would happen at the start of the fifth world. It might have been written down but the Spanish destroyed many Mayan texts labeling them as "heresy"

      --
      Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
    3. Re:Of course they're wrong by DragonWriter · · Score: 3, Informative

      The Mayans had a Long Count calendar which was based on how many days since the day they believe creation started.

      Correct.

      They believed that this age was the fourth world and the fifth would start at the end of the Long Count.

      The first half is correct. The Maya did believe that this was the fourth -- and only successful -- creation, that followed three prior, failed attempts at creation.

      The second half is less correct. First, the Long Count doesn't end (or at least not in the currently-expected lifetime of the universe and several orders of magnitude more; the abbreviated expression that was all that was needed to record current dates does 'run out', similar to the Y2K problem, but the Long Count has many higher positional cycles that were used in writing future dates, and occasionally used in writing current dates in ceremonial contexts.)

      Second, there is no evidence that the Maya expected the current creation to end at any particular time; and there are concrete indications (in the form of predictions of events in the current creation that did require the use of higher-order cycles) that if they did expect the current creation to end, it wasn't at the point where Long Count dates counted from the beginning of the current creation would begin to need to use the higher-order cycles that weren't conventionally used to express current dates.

    4. Re:Of course they're wrong by cusco · · Score: 1

      Bishop Landa proudly reported to the Vatican that he had destroyed over a million Mayan books. Most of the very few that still exist may have been picked up as souvenirs by the invading soldiers.

      --
      "Think about how stupid the average person is. Now, realise that half of them are dumber than that." - George Carlin
    5. Re:Of course they're wrong by ljgshkg · · Score: 1

      In fact, decendent tribals had already repeatly say that it's just to restart of the calendar.

    6. Re:Of course they're wrong by shadowbearer · · Score: 1

        I'm not sure what's worse; the silliness of the EOTW Mayan BS or the fact that people are still wasting valuable bandwidth posting about it ;-0

      SB

      --
      It's old. The more humans I meet, the more I like my cats. At least they are honest.
    7. Re:Of course they're wrong by Idbar · · Score: 1

      Yes, this was like the Engineer of the Mayans, which used limited resources to describe the calendar. Now that the resources are almost done (and since no other Mayan Engineer has been able to update the Y2012 bug), then everyone speculates about the mess that this is going to cause.

      I wonder if banks are still running on the Mayan calendar or if they updated, last time I checked the Gregorian one was poorly implemented and was about to break, like.. 11 years ago?

  9. I am so glad! by formfeed · · Score: 2, Funny
    Pointing out that the end ( or roll-over) of a calendar system doesn't cause the world to end, would still not have prevented people from panicking.

    But now it turns out the date was off! Great news! Finally news anchors have a real story to report.

  10. Old News by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    This is old news, and we've talked about this on slashdot before (i'm just not in the mood to dig for it)

  11. Not and end by jbarr · · Score: 1

    Doesn't the date just mean that the calendar rolls from "age" of the Myan calendar to the next? Sure, it's the transition from one to another, but isn't it more psychological than anything? After all, other than lining many IS people's pockets, wasn't 2000 relatively uneventful?

    I partied like it was 1999, and I still had to go into work the following day....

    --
    My mom always said, "Jim, you're 1 in a million." Given the current population, there are 7000 of me. God help us all!
    1. Re:Not and end by evocarti · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Transitions from one age to the next, especially in mythological terms, tend to be violent and filled with hardship.

    2. Re:Not and end by Monkeedude1212 · · Score: 1

      Doesn't the date just mean that the calendar rolls from "age" of the Myan calendar to the next? Sure, it's the transition from one to another, but isn't it more psychological than anything? After all, other than lining many IS people's pockets, wasn't 2000 relatively uneventful?

      I partied like it was 1999, and I still had to go into work the following day....

      For starters, Y2K was a big issue, though not as big as everyone made it out to be. It wasn't like there was going to be a glitch and launch every nuke, it would have been more like being unable to use your bank account for a week. The reason it was relatively uneventful was the blood sweat and tears of your IS people, and yes they did get rich off it, but not without actually working on it.

      For the Ancient Mayans, this actually had signifigant effects on their culture, much like how we celebrate Christmas and Easter every year, except this would have been a much bigger reason to party. It'd be like Y2K New Years, Christmas, And Spring Break in Cancun all at once. They had much smaller cycles within their cycle (like our months to a year) and everytime one of those rolled around, they actually added on another teir to their temples. Those big Mayan Pyramids you see when you google "Mayan"? They're actually temples built on top of temples.

      The whole thing about the Calendar being "The End" is an odd bit - because the Mayans had 2 ways to track the date, the short count and the long count. Kind of like if I said "Tuesday the 19th" you don't know where exactly that Tuesday falls into place. Could be this year, years from now, months from now, who knows. That's kind of how the Mayan short count works - you only know the date if it were anywhere within a 52 year cycle. When the Conquistadors came and burned all but 3 books for reasons of Heresey - a lot of history was lost and the ambiguation of dates really began. Does this stela mean Dec 21 2012 or does it mean Dec 21 2064? No one can really tell. Then you get into the incongruences between their calendar and the Gregorian calendar, like leap years - and it becomes a giant mess trying to figure it all out.

  12. Just a unit of measurement by aardwolf64 · · Score: 1

    The Mayans never claimed to have predicted the end of the world... This is not majorly different than rolling over from December 31st to January 1st, except it happens less often.

    1. Re:Just a unit of measurement by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually it was all a big misunderstanding...

      It all started at the calendar maker's store, where the lone emplyee was asking his boss about something.
      "What happens then?"

      "We run out of stock, kiddo. We won't be able to make any more calendars."

      "What do we tell our customers? That we're out of supplies?"

      "Make something up. Make it good so they won't bother us."

  13. In a way, the Mayans were correct. by xxxJonBoyxxx · · Score: 5, Funny

    In a way, the Mayans were correct. After all, whether the date is 2012 or 2013, the Maya did correctly predict that by that time the Maya would have no further need for a Mayan calendar.

    1. Re:In a way, the Mayans were correct. by Joe+Snipe · · Score: 1

      [Citation Needed]

      --
      Sometimes, life itself is sarcasm...
    2. Re:In a way, the Mayans were correct. by Arancaytar · · Score: 1

      Which means they were way ahead of certain programmers in 1975.

  14. no soon after the cubs win it all! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    no soon after the cubs win it all!

  15. What about the year 0 debate? did we even start it by Joe+The+Dragon · · Score: 1

    What about the year 0 debate? did we even start it on time as well it can be like 1-5 years each way off as well.

  16. According to my calendar... by Faatal · · Score: 1

    The world goes tits up after October 31st 2010. It's just blank after that.

    Or I could just turn the page.

  17. reschedule by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Then it will be "Oh wait its actually 20012, we forgot to carry the zero"

  18. Not really doomsday by canajin56 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The most damning evidence against the "doomsday" is the fact that at least one Mayan king wrote about how he hoped people will still celebrate him in, then he gave a date, a date several thousand years after the end of the Mayan long calendar. So, did he not get the memo that the world would have been destroyed thousands of years before that date? Was he just oblivious? Seems contrary to assume he was clueless, since the only reason we think the Mayan calendar predicts the end of the world is the assumption that they were all-knowing and all-seeing, by virtue of not being us.

    --
    ASCII stupid question, get a stupid ANSI
    1. Re:Not really doomsday by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's not really a contradiction. The Mayas believed that this world would end, not life in general. IIRC the worlds were concentric, or at least stacked on top of each other, and when one world ends the people ascend to the next one. I can't remember if there is a selection criterion for crossing over.

    2. Re:Not really doomsday by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He was in management. Nuff said.

    3. Re:Not really doomsday by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Isn't the most damning evidence against the Mayan "doomsday" the fact that there is no fucking evidence for it whatsoever? Why are we even talking about this?

    4. Re:Not really doomsday by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The most damning evidence against the "doomsday" is the fact that at least one Mayan king wrote about how he hoped people will still celebrate him...

      Umm no. The most damning evidence against the "doomsday" is the complete lack of any evidence for the "doomsday."

  19. 5 Billion years to go... by digitaldc · · Score: 0

    The end will come in 5 Billion years from now when the Sun becomes a Red Giant. The Mayans were wayyy off.

    --
    He who knows best knows how little he knows. - Thomas Jefferson
    1. Re:5 Billion years to go... by peragrin · · Score: 1

      Nope we just miss translated 5 thousand years for 5 billion years..

      it could happen to anyone the US governement does it with tax money all the time.

      no big deal

      --
      i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
  20. Actually they didn't by Moraelin · · Score: 5, Informative

    Actually they didn't. There is _no_ mayan prophecy for the end of the Baktun. None whatsoever. On the contrary, on their monuments you find dates up to trillions of year into the future. Dunno what was supposed to happen then, but it would make no sense to prophecise it if the world is supposed to end now.

    _All_ that happens in 2012 (ok, 2013) is the end of a baktun.

    Let's start from the start. The Mayans didn't count in base 10, but in base 20, presumably because they could count on their toes too. (No, really, look at their digits.) Thank goodness they didn't come up with a male-only maths, eh?

    So they started with a year based on 260 day years, the so called Tzolkin calendar. If now you went "wait, that can't be right, it would skip through the actual year like crazy", congrats, you'd be smarter than the Mayans.

    Then came the Long Count calendar, which was 360 days long, or 18 months of 20 days each. (Told you they were big on 20.) This is actually the calendar used in the 2012 (non)prophecy.

    Yes, that's right. Those poor idiots are actually trusting a civilization to tell them about galactic alignments... who isn't even advanced enough to figure out the length of the year. Nor had the smarts to reset it to some equinoxe or such each year, like the lunisolar calendars used around here by even the most primitive ancient cultures. Yeah, that's the guy to trust with galactic calculations, right? ;)

    To make it more stupid, even the Mayans eventually got a better calendar than that, the Haab calendar. Which finally padded the year to 365 days long, putting them finally on par with what the Egyptians had had, oh, only a couple of millennia before them. But anyway, a doomsday calculation based on the Long Count is already based on a calendar which is obsolete and crap even by Mayan standards.

    So, anyway, a Long Count year was 18 months of 20 days each.

    From there it went kinda like for us with decades, centuries and milenia, except in base 20.

    So for us a decade is 10 years, for them a katun is 20 years.

    For us a century is 10x10 years, for them a baktun is 20x20 years.

    For us a millennium is 10x10x10 years, for them a piktun is 20x20x20 years.

    All that happens in 2012 or 2013 is the end of a baktun. Yes, it's not even millennialism. The piktun (base-20 millenium) won't end for another 4000 years or so.

    That scare isn't even like Y2K, it's more like being scared of the rollover from 699 AD to 700 AD. I mean, WTF, it's not even running out of digits or anything.

    And again that's _all_ there is to it, because there is no actual Mayan prophecy for that date.

    But I guess that won't stop the doomsday idiots from waiting for their Rapture on that day. What else is new?

    --
    A polar bear is a cartesian bear after a coordinate transform.
    1. Re:Actually they didn't by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      So the real end of the universe is 2013 .... thats katun , A holy number in Mayan and 13, a cursed number in Judaeo-Christian citcles (12 apostles + 1 Jebus)
      SOunds pretty apocalyptic in my book .. that will be the day they run out of internet space AND THE WHOLE INTERNET PIPES DIE!

    2. Re:Actually they didn't by ArcherB · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Add to that the fact that they couldn't predict the Spanish coming over and ending their world.

      --
      There is no "I disagree" mod for a reason. Flamebait, Troll, and Overrated are not substitutes.
    3. Re:Actually they didn't by cusco · · Score: 3, Informative

      Their civilization was already long over before the Spanish arrived.

      --
      "Think about how stupid the average person is. Now, realise that half of them are dumber than that." - George Carlin
    4. Re:Actually they didn't by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "...presumably because they could count on their toes too. (No, really, look at their digits.) Thank goodness they didn't come up with a male-only maths, eh?"

      Insert obligatory "Carry The One" math joke...

    5. Re:Actually they didn't by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A small correction, they did know a year have 365 days, the 360 days calendar actually had 365 days: 18 months of 20 days each + 5 days that didn't belong to any month. Those 5 days were at the end of the year and were considered "doomed" so no one would leave their homes those days.

    6. Re:Actually they didn't by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What else is new?

      That the world actually ends in 2011 first: http://www.familyradio.com/

    7. Re:Actually they didn't by gaiageek · · Score: 5, Informative

      I'm not a 2012 doomsday believer nor have I read a single book on Mayan calendars, but I do remember learning in intro astronomy that the Mayans made incredibly accurate astronomical observations and predications, including of solar eclipses well in the future. I find it pretty hard to believe that they could do this (I'd love to see anyone here predict an eclipse without using a computer), yet be unaware of the cycle which we call the solar year. From some brief research online it seems that in Mayan culture, Venus had more significance than the sun, and the 260-day period you mentioned was tied to the gestation period of women. Point being, it seems misguided to suggest that they were idiots (as you more or less do) when the Mayans were quite aware of what was happening in the skies, and when considering the fact that they must have choose the cycles they did based upon what was important within their culture.

      --
      www.gaiageek.com
    8. Re:Actually they didn't by BobMcD · · Score: 1

      Some quick points:

      1) Everything, everything, EVERYTHING we know about their culture is derived from a mere handful of parchments that sympathetic Spaniards managed to save from being burned. You cannot possibly substantiate "none whatsoever" because we have only a minute sliver of their knowledge to go on. That would be like looking at the summary of an article alone and declaring oneself a PhD in the matter. It happens, but isn't exactly sound reasoning.

      2) There's little to no reason to believe that the calendar wouldn't end on the solstice. Nothing in the article seems to illustrate WHY they would suddenly dispose of any regard for astronomy with the end of this one single calendar.

      3) Assuming there ARE idiots waiting for Rapture on that day. Why the hell do you care? You seem rather worked up over what would be, if you're correct, basically nothing. So what's the deal? Whatever it is, why not save us all some time and simply argue THAT instead?

    9. Re:Actually they didn't by Grapplebeam · · Score: 1

      Hey man, it's cool. If the rapture DOES happen, the Christians are stuck here with us. No where in the Bible does it say they get a free ticket out of the apocalypse. In fact, I dare to say that most of them think they get a "get out of hell on earth free card" because of the Simpsons episode.

      --
      There is no -1 Disagree.
    10. Re:Actually they didn't by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

      How could they have predicted it? Nobody expects the Spanish inquisition!

    11. Re:Actually they didn't by vintagepc · · Score: 1

      That would be like looking at the summary of an article alone and declaring oneself a PhD in the matter.

      You must be new here... (yes, I saw your 6-digit UID). Well targeted analogy, good sir.

      This is something that ticks me off every time I see it- any documentary tends to infer that ancient peoples were stupid/less intelligent then us ("oh wow, look how they made x using only y primitive tools!") Everyone needs to realize that there is no fixed measure of intelligence, and that it is relative - these ancient groups were incredibly smart - as pointed out, the mayans with their astrological knowledge, and the middle east in the development of various mathematical things)...

      That said, I don't think we need to worry about some external force bringing about the end of the world... humanity just needs to look in a mirror to see the cause.

      --
      Evolution - Est. 4500000000 B.C. Don't piss in the gene pool.
    12. Re:Actually they didn't by Moraelin · · Score: 1

      Actually, there is.

      1. Basically it has no reason to. They counted base 20, and everything else about their number system is base 20. Assuming that only for this one it would have a special rule that the digit can't go above 13 is stupid. It's like saying that for Christians the century digit can't go above 7. Why?

      2. And at any rate, the burden of proof is on those who claim that such a rule exists, not on those who don't. "[i]There's little to no reason to believe that the calendar wouldn't end on the solstice.[/i]" is exactly back-ass-wards. Not having any evidence of such a prophecy is not a reason to default to assuming that not only one exists, but also what it is about.

      Basically, you also don't have any reason to not believe that there's a miniature giant space hamster ruling the world, but presumably you wouldn't take it as the default assumption until proven wrong.

      3. Look at the digit we currently have there 13. Including zero, that would mean that their centuries digit goes in cycles of 14, which is nonsense for that culture. The numbers 13 and 20 were sacred numbers. The number 14 wasn't.

      Aand again, anyone claiming to know of such a rule of 14, has the burden of proof to support it.

      4. Actually I've left the best reason for last, although I already mentioned it. There are dates on some of those monuments with about a dozen digits for the year. Get that? They're not running out of digits. Whatever date there might be when the long count runs out of digits, it's by _far_ not at baktun or piktun.

      That already isn't even a case of Occam's Razor or most reasonable assumption. It's a case of already _knowing_ that their calendar doesn't run out of digits now. Because we've already seen dates of theirs with more digits.

      5. Actually, it's not as much the Rapture that annoys me, as the whole counterfactual bullshit surrounding this Mayan date. The whole fabricating a bullshit prophecy based on _not_ knowing that there isn't one, basically. Yes, I'm somewhat worked up. Because such a display of stupidity and believing unsupported bullshit just because of wanting to believe some bullshit, is already disheartening.

      --
      A polar bear is a cartesian bear after a coordinate transform.
    13. Re:Actually they didn't by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're under the mistaken impression the Earth has always required 365.25 days to rotate the Sun.

    14. Re:Actually they didn't by Moraelin · · Score: 1

      You're under the mistaken impression the Earth has always required 365.25 days to rotate the Sun

      You seem to be under the mistaken impression that that would make the Mayan calendar less stupid.

      Yes, Earth rotation slows down, so days get longer... by about 0.002 seconds per century. But:

      A) that's slowing down, not accelerating. A year in the _very_ distant past had _more_ days, not less. Basically, sorry, you can't justify the Long Count 360 day year that way, much less the 260 day Tzolkin year.

      B) That's at the scale of millions of years, not thousands. Sorry. In the 200,000 years that humanity even existed at all, that would make a difference of about 4 seconds a day out of 86400, or about 0.0046%. Even at that monumental scale, we're talking roughly years that were longer by, oh, just about enough to make every century leap instead of 3 out of 4. That tiny a difference. It still doesn't add up to a whole 5 day correction needed by the Long Count calendar.

      But again, the correction is in the wrong direction. The more you go in the past, the more wrong the Long Count calendar gets.

      The only point where the Long Count will be correct... notice that "will" there? Right. It's many millions years in the _future_. (And why would they make a calendar for then, if the world ends now, anyway?)

      C) More importantly, we don't even need to speculate. We know that the calendar was close enough to 365 day years since at least 3000 BC, because the Egyptians figured that out. The interval when the Mayans created their bad calendar is squarely in times when we already know from the Greeks, Egyptians, Persians, and ultimately Romans that the year did _not_ have 360 days. While the former is just rough estimates and maths, this point is historical fact. We already know that it was wrong for the age when they started using it.

      --
      A polar bear is a cartesian bear after a coordinate transform.
    15. Re:Actually they didn't by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You know what else the Mayans figured out? Jokes.

    16. Re:Actually they didn't by Chris+Burke · · Score: 1

      You cannot possibly substantiate "none whatsoever" because we have only a minute sliver of their knowledge to go on.

      No, but you can trivially substantiate "none known whatsoever" based on the fact that there's only a minute sliver of knowledge.

      Which means there's no evidence of there being such a prophecy, and the doomsday theorists are basing their theory on nothing.

      2) There's little to no reason to believe that the calendar wouldn't end on the solstice. Nothing in the article seems to illustrate WHY they would suddenly dispose of any regard for astronomy with the end of this one single calendar.

      Yeah, except for the whole thing with the calendar in question not even matching the year much less any other astronomical phenomenon because they were stuck on using multiples of 20 even where it didn't work. So, there's actually quite a bit of reason right there.

      Contrariwise, there's no reason to assign any real or hypothetical significance to the end of this calendar other than it being the end of the calendar. My desk calendar ends on Dec. 31. Prophecy of the end of the world? or just time to buy a new calendar? Certainly if you look for astronomical significance, you won't find any. Other than it's very close to one revolution of the earth around the sun since the end of the previous calendar, which you can't even say about the Mayan calendar.

      You seem rather worked up over what would be, if you're correct, basically nothing. So what's the deal? Whatever it is, why not save us all some time and simply argue THAT instead?

      I wish people believing things despite all evidence pointing in the opposite direction, simply because it appeals to them in some way, was "basically nothing".

      --

      The enemies of Democracy are
    17. Re:Actually they didn't by BobMcD · · Score: 1

      I wish people believing things despite all evidence pointing in the opposite direction, simply because it appeals to them in some way, was "basically nothing".

      Don't waste a wish. This is truly already within your power. You can decide whether or not, and to what degree, you give a damn about what other people think or say. Today, without wishing for a thing.

    18. Re:Actually they didn't by Chris+Burke · · Score: 1

      Don't waste a wish. This is truly already within your power. You can decide whether or not, and to what degree, you give a damn about what other people think or say. Today, without wishing for a thing.

      What people think or say about the flagrantly false things they believe can affect real-world behaviors and decisions with real negative consequences, and it is clearly not within my power to "decide" that this not be so, otherwise we'd be involved in at minimum one fewer war. The Mayan Calendar Doomsday Myth, while not of much real world impact, is a symptom of a broader issue that truly does matter.

      So your suggestion is like saying I should save my wish that the hungry children of the world would be fed, because instead I could simply stop caring.

      How foolish.

      --

      The enemies of Democracy are
    19. Re:Actually they didn't by shadowbearer · · Score: 1

      I find it pretty hard to believe that they could do this (I'd love to see anyone here predict an eclipse without using a computer)

      http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=antikythera-mechanism-eclipse-olympics

      SB

      --
      It's old. The more humans I meet, the more I like my cats. At least they are honest.
    20. Re:Actually they didn't by Chris+Burke · · Score: 1

      You know what else the Mayans figured out? Jokes.

      Yeah well I'd study their teachings a bit more before I quit my day job, if I were you.

      --

      The enemies of Democracy are
    21. Re:Actually they didn't by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm sorry I have to break this to you, but if you had ever paid attention to math you would know that 2013 != 13

    22. Re:Actually they didn't by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why the hell is this marked a Troll? It's true.

      The Mayans weren't conquered by the Spanish. Other Central-and-South-American Empires - many of them - were conquered by the Spanish, and many more besides by the other European colonial powers - but the Mayans Empire was extinct for hundreds of years before any Europeans dreamed of the New World. Heck, it ended before the Dark Ages was over in Europe.

    23. Re:Actually they didn't by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "who isn't even advanced enough to figure out the length of the year"

      Actually, Mayans had a year of 18 months of 20 days each _plus_ 5.25 days of holidays. That is (almost) exactly a solar year.

    24. Re:Actually they didn't by SleazyRidr · · Score: 1

      You may not need a computer for the calculation, but you needed a computer to find that article!

      --
      Is 1563649 a prime number?
    25. Re:Actually they didn't by Andy+Smith · · Score: 1

      What a fascinating read that was! Haven't got mod points, so all I can do is say thank you. So thank you!

    26. Re:Actually they didn't by MotoBaridi · · Score: 1

      It's the Inca, not the Maya, who were destroyed by the Spaniards

  21. It was wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Not just the date, all of it. Fucking numerologists.

  22. Y2k38 by tunapez · · Score: 1

    I read that trolls and wizards will crawl out of their mothers' dungeons and lay waste to the world when Linux x32 calendar expires. Let's hope the Mayans' runs out first!

    --
    Imagination drew in bold strokes, instantly serving hopes and fears, while knowledge advanced by slow increments...
  23. No, it won't by geekoid · · Score: 1

    Doom sayers will just sue this as an excuse to get another 60 days worth of attention.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  24. Recalculated by Drakkenmensch · · Score: 1

    According to the math done after taking these new factors into consideration, the planned apocalypse will actually happen more or less in the next couple of sec

    1. Re:Recalculated by mortonda · · Score: 1

      Q: If you knew out the world was going to end in a few seconds, what are you doing posting on slashdot?!

  25. I just think all doomsday 'theorists' deserve to by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    be mocked and ridiculed.

  26. what really happened. by Krau+Ming · · Score: 1

    it happened like this: the local calendar maker received a huge order for calendars going up to the year 25000 and he started making them but then after bunch he was like "nuts to this, i'm going for a beer" and he just so happened to leave off at dec 21 2012. the calendar maker never returned from his beer though...UNSOLVED MYSTERIES. i love that show.

  27. Everyone knows the real date is 2038 by chemicaldave · · Score: 1

    January 19, 2038 03:14:08 GMT

    1. Re:Everyone knows the real date is 2038 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      UNIX HAS A PROBLEM IN 2038...

  28. Insensitive clod! by srussia · · Score: 1

    The world goes tits up after October 31st 2010. It's just blank after that.

    Or I could just turn the page.

    Europe "falls back" on 31/10/2010. I've experienced enough mishaps on DST-change days to gain a healthy respect for a baktun rollover.

    --
    Set your phasers on "funky"!
  29. 60 days? Really by medv4380 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Given that the calendar is based on the winter solstice and the rollover occurs on every winter solstice. The Gregorian calendar is flawed in tracking the solstice because it floats just enough because it's not based on a perfect solar year but it's close enough. 60 days off is kind of absurd since it would put it no were near the soltices or equinox that were used. I'd believe that they had the wrong year 2011 vs 2013 or 2012 but wrong astrological event? hardly

    1. Re:60 days? Really by flowwolf · · Score: 1

      This is precisely it. Astronomical events like the solstice are what the Mayan calendar is built upon. The Gregorian date I always thought was calculated from the same source material, rather than trying to align the complete inaccuracies that are known about and well documented. Whoever did this study is doing it wrong.

      December 21, 2012 is the date of the solstice that we suspect is the one they were talking about. And even then, it would just roll their clock back to 000,000,000. This is commonly misrepresented as the end, rather than rebirth or new beginnings.

  30. 2013 is a far worse doomsday scenario by scourfish · · Score: 1

    The US, after having been ravaged by nuclear war, will be caught on a power struggle between anarchy and an ultra-survivalist group, the Holnists. The only people who will be able to save us then will be Kevin Costner, Ford-Lincoln-Mercury, and president Richard Starkey. Also, Tom Petty will be the mayor of a town.

    1. Re:2013 is a far worse doomsday scenario by treeves · · Score: 1

      Richard Starkey (the one I've heard of) is not a natural-born US citizen, so...OK, let's not go there.

      --
      ...the future crusty old bastards are already drinking the Kool-Aid.
  31. Of /course/ it might be by The+Master+Control+P · · Score: 1

    Well, I see it's time to start creating an out for when this latest bit of stupidity invariably proves to be wrong.

  32. Thank god! by pablo_max · · Score: 1

    I had booked the great place for a wedding on the 23rd. I was afraid I would be hosed!

  33. 60 days? by boristdog · · Score: 1

    Dammit!

    It's going to be hard enough to keep them all virgins until the end of 2012. How am I supposed to convince them to wait longer?

  34. As a California resident, the world will never end by by+(1706743) · · Score: 1
    Proof:
    1. * It is tomorrow in Australia (IDL magic).
    2. * Australia is part of the world.
    3. * Therefore, the world exists tomorrow.
    4. * By induction, the world exists every day.

    Well...maybe this breaks at certain times of the day...

  35. Well... by SoulMaster · · Score: 1

    That sucks for these guys!

    I wonder if they'll honor the policy I bought for 12-21-2012 if the disaster is pushed 60 days!

    1. Re:Well... by Jesse_vd · · Score: 1

      "...provided these events occur on December 21st, 2012!"

  36. Re:I just think all doomsday 'theorists' deserve t by couchslug · · Score: 1

    I think they should be humored and coddled and talked into signing over their worldly goods as an act of faith.
    The stupid deserved to be humilitated, for profit.

    --
    "This post is an artistic work of fiction and falsehood. Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact."
  37. That's good to hear by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This way Hillary will get at least 30 days in the White House. I mean it would really suck to win the election, and have the world blow up a month before you get to try on the shoes

  38. May 19th 2013 Expect Us by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    May 19th 2013 Expect Us

  39. damn... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Now I'll have to make thousands of calls to move the date of my end-of-the-world party.

  40. The world will end in 73 days... by otaku244 · · Score: 1

    I have a paper calendar in my house that stops at December 31. I knew things wouldn't last forever...

    --
    Mod me down, I shall become more off-topic than you could possibly imagine.
  41. The real answer by naoursla · · Score: 0

    What the research is failing to recognize is that moving the date out 60 days or so prevents the end of the world date from being a base three number.

    12212012 in decimal is equal to 4271, which when represented as cents is almost but not quite completely unlike the answer 42.

  42. The answers used to be so simple by DontLickJesus · · Score: 1

    Seeing that the Mayans could actually see the stars and watched the galactic center move through the sky, I find it hilarious that this conversation invokes so much debate. The average Mayan likely could have looked up at the night sky and gotten all the answers they needed. All these electric lights have spoiled our eyes. Starlight would be enough if we were accustomed to it.

    --
    Where genius and insanity become confused true wisdom is found
  43. EOW by BMAPARTS · · Score: 0

    I think everyone has a different view on the exact "due Date", but I seriously think that nothing is going to happen, and if it does oh well.

    --
    Need Auto Parts? Check us out here! http://www.bmaparts.com
  44. At least... by undecim · · Score: 1

    Unfortunately, even if the apocalypse is rescheduled, doomsday theorists will unlikely take note

    At least not until after Dec 12, 2012

    --
    The Internet has given stupid people the resources of intelligent people.
  45. How many times do we have to see this? by _Shorty-dammit · · Score: 1

    Here's the last one I remember.

    http://science.slashdot.org/story/09/10/26/1517242/2012-a-Miscalculation-Actual-Calendar-Ends-2220?from=rss

  46. The end is inevitable... by joeyblades · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Not the end of the planet, solar system, galaxy, universe, time or whatever is supposed to occur in 2012 (of course, those things will inevitably end, as well). However the inevitable end that I'm referring to is the end of a period of time that can be represented by a calender. I have never understood why the end of the Mayan calendar has to be the end of anything... I mean, The Dilbert calender on my desk ends on December 31st of this year... I wonder if I should attach any cosmic significance to that?

  47. lol by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    what a relief

  48. Me, I know the end of the world is coming shortly by SolarStorm · · Score: 1

    The leafs have not lost in regular time (1 OTL) and are in first place. Satan is buying winter coats and the Apocalypse is nigh.

  49. NOOOOOOOO by MBGMorden · · Score: 1

    Damn it!

    Every time a time gets pushed back it's a bad thing. I just want the date to come and go so that I can point and yell I told you so!

    Heck several people on another forum I visit are convinced that we are having a pole-reversal at that time. And I don't mean a magnetic pole-reversal (which is quasi-plausible) - I mean they actually think the damned planet is going to physically flip around backwards.

    --
    "People who think they know everything are very annoying to those of us who do."-Mark Twain
    1. Re:NOOOOOOOO by Rod+Beauvex · · Score: 1

      I was thinking about this earlier. I've heard serveral times that the 2012 date is wrong, yet it being in the past never seem to be a possibility.

      The world really started changing in many ways around the late 70's / early 80's.

      Hmmm.....did anything significant happen at that time...? :D

  50. More than 60 days by gmuslera · · Score: 2, Funny

    New calculations will push it further to April 1st, 2013

  51. LHC by Tablizer · · Score: 1

    To know for sure, just bookmark LHC's schedule.

    --
    Table-ized A.I.
    1. Re:LHC by Arimus · · Score: 1

      Due to be offline in 2012 for budget reasons... so doubt we can blame the LHC.

      --
      --- Users are like bacteria -> Each one causing a thousand tiny crises until the host finally gives up and dies.
  52. Peak Oil Day by advid.net · · Score: 1

    About driving a car, doomsday, and any date circa 2012 : one should mention the Peak Oil

    (even if instead of a sudden apocalyptic vision we have a decades long agony of energy shortage)

  53. The apocalypse already happened. by sabt-pestnu · · Score: 1

    January 1, 1970 UTC is when the UNIX singularity happened.

    Other singularities:

    MS DOS - January 1, 1980

    AmigaOS - January 1, 1978

    Microsoft Excel - January 0, 1900 (That was a red-letter day, for sure!)

    OLE automation - midnight, 30 December 1899

    Win32 - January 1, 1601

    We're already in a post-singularity world, folks. Nothing to fear from the Mayan calendar that we haven't faced before.

  54. Oh no... by poundbang · · Score: 1

    Please, let's not give Roland Emmerich any justification for making a sequel.

  55. Hoorrrayyy!!! by Gohtar · · Score: 1

    Christmas is still on for 2012!! I need to start making my list.

  56. Switcheroo by arhhook · · Score: 1

    Wasn't there a previous article that says ""2012" a Miscalculation; Actual Calendar Ends 2220" http://science.slashdot.org/story/09/10/26/1517242/2012-a-Miscalculation-Actual-Calendar-Ends-2220

    Now it ends again!

    Quick, make another movie.

  57. 2012 Mayan Calendar 'Doomsday' Date Might Be Wrong by aLEczapKA · · Score: 0

    ..might... be... wrong.. ?

    Are you saying it was right all the time, till now?!

    0.0

    --
    -- All Gods were immortal.
    -- S. Lem
  58. Peak Whale Oil Day by Black+Gold+Alchemist · · Score: 1

    About using a light, doomsday, and any date circa 2012 : one should mention Peak Whale Oil

    (even if instead of a sudden apocalyptic vision we have a decades long agony of energy shortage)

    --
    Responsibility is an addiction
    Virtue is a temptation
    Community is a cartel
  59. Mayans chart planets,Islam'stars, Navy'floods. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Islam had many astronomers and astrologists base their studies off the movement of celestial bodies until Muhammad arrived to destroy Islam and re-create it into a monotheistic ideology with all traces of prior gods almost entirely gone. Much of the icons of Islam still bear some of the celestial meanings, but that is all.

    The Mayan Calendar tracked natural disturbances to the same celestial bodies. For instance, the arrival of the dead sun has always been found to be a cataclysmic event because any celestial bodies can tamper with the gravitational pull and tide tables on Planet Earth. Even US Navy documents that the equators bulge with over 500,000 cubic miles of sea water that if not for gravity this would cover the entire planet except for all of Tibet and parts of Colorado.

    Do I need to reference the missing US Navy documents about this or how President Eisenhower warns that "this planet is covered entirely by water and has only temporarily receded?" That brings a lot into perspective, know that without water this planet would be worse than Mars if not for that sea water covering all the Volcanoes and insulating the Geothermal activity that only US Navy intelligence concludes as the true culprit of global warming.

    But no. Just go on living like there is nothing in this universe that can induce problems. Just continue thinking that Mars is more dangerous than Planet Earth. Don't collect 10 years-worth of canned food and staple necessities for your closest family. Don't buy or build water-sealed top-buoyant small boat that you can throw everyone and think inside to be your aquatic bug-out vessel in any kind of flooding catastrophe. The story Noah's Ark was just propoganda through Metaphore about when illegal aliens flood your land: yea, that's it; there's no spiritual flooding and natural flooding, only floods of illegal aliens.

    1. Re:Mayans chart planets,Islam'stars, Navy'floods. by codeButcher · · Score: 1

      Good thing for me that I live within 2 hours' drive of the Drakensberg range. No need for all that fancy stuff, only a good shotgun to keep freebooters at bay, and replenish my own stocks from those idiots that bought ten years' cans.

      --
      Free, as in your money being freed from the confines of your account.
  60. Nope, different calendar by Moraelin · · Score: 1

    A small correction, they did know a year have 365 days, the 360 days calendar actually had 365 days: 18 months of 20 days each + 5 days that didn't belong to any month. Those 5 days were at the end of the year and were considered "doomed" so no one would leave their homes those days.

    Actually, I've touched that later in that message: nope, that's a different calendar. The Haab' calendar has those 5 days. The Long Count calendar is strictly 360 days.

    --
    A polar bear is a cartesian bear after a coordinate transform.
  61. Just ask the mayans... by gagol · · Score: 1

    They will tell you this does not represent the end of the world, only the beginning of a new cycle... Just like the year 2038 is not the end of the world, merely the end of 32bit time unix era.

    --
    Tomorrow is another day...
  62. It doesn't have an end date. by billstewart · · Score: 1

    Mayan prophecies refer to dates several thousand years farther in the future than the date at the end of the popular Mayan calendar. Basically, all that you need when the calendar rolls over is just adding another character or getting a bigger stone, and the Mayans didn't have to worry that they'd have to upgrade all their abacuses to Stone 2K compliance.

    --

    Bill Stewart
    New Fast-Compression-only CPR http://preview.tinyurl.com/dy575ks
  63. Sigh by chord.wav · · Score: 1

    On a side note, Duke Nukem Forever's launch date was moved from Dec 22th 2012 by at least 60 days too.

  64. Alien bastards gonna pay for stealin my Writes by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This realy pisses me off.

    Universal Church of Babylon: first converts all the nordic gods into Saints to incorporate them into submition of the Romish Pontiff, then whatever Christians and Wiccans they fail to convert are then murdered or incorporated by coercion, then they invade Ireland and genocide all the races of Toad and Snake people, then they indirectly sent other Catholic churches across Oceans to invade and pilfer and destroy other cultures of Snake Sacrifice people south of the equator, then they spread their SS Jesuits For Jewsus within Freemasonry and conquer America from ever being a bastion for Covenanters and Reformers and Wicca, then they invent the Church of Satan so give the impression that there still is evil in the world when we all know all these Guilds of Calamitous Intents are nothing more than Satire in likenes to The Onion.

    Way to go, Cathaholic Crutch; you now own the Department of Rhomeland Security and FEMA to prevent people from re-entering their houses after you use a Natural Disaster Weapon to allow the government to disarm the people through vaccination and unsatisifiable Security speculations.

  65. What happened to 2220? by Trogre · · Score: 1

    Well given that the latest /. report had the end of the Mayan calendar re-calculated to 2220 I don't know what to believe any more.

    --
    "Nine times out of ten, starting a fire is not the best way to solve the problem." - my wife
  66. I thought the Mayan civilisation ended ages ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...due to over farming or water resource related environmental collapse or something. Anyway, I think they must have fucked up their calculations somewhere.

  67. Cost Overruns, Delays, Common in big projects. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yeah. We see this kind of thing all the time. Cost Overruns, Delays; all of these things are common in big projects. So the end of the earth is going to be 60 days late. Let he who has never been 60days late on a project cast the first stone at this. :-)

    In Agile, we would call this an added feature. Now you have two Apocalypse dates. That's a feature, and we can deliver it even before the first Apocalypse date. Wow, we are cool. :-) LOL!!!

  68. We are in hell already.... by hesaigo999ca · · Score: 1

    The end of sensibility is what is going to be "the end of the world" as we know it.
    When China becomes the major power (and it will happen by sheer mass and volume)
    they will start their decimation of other nations, and we will all be equal under one government...
    hopefully I am dead before this happens.

    I guess we can say it is payback for when the brits took over china's capital.