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China To Overtake US In Science In Two Years
An anonymous reader writes "China is set to overtake America in scientific output as soon as 2013 — far earlier than expected. Chinese research spending has grown by 20% per year since 1999, now reaching over $100bn, and as many as 1.5 million science and engineering students graduated from Chinese universities in 2006. 'I think this is positive, of great benefit, though some might see it as a threat and it does serve as a wake-up call for us not to become complacent,' said Professor Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith. However, the report points out that a growing volume of research publications does not necessarily mean an increase in quality."
Is there some way to objectively measure it? Number of patents, number of papers, what?
Chinese universities also have more cheating then us ones.
...a machine for turning ramen into "scientific output".
When I hear things like Texas wants to slash 10 billion dollars from the public education budget. Or did that not get through?
'I think this is positive, of great benefit, though some might see it as a threat and it does serve as a wake-up call for us not to become complacent,' said Professor Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith
Science is absolutely not a competition. Was Argentina harmed because the US went to the moon? Was Russia harmed when penicillin was discovered? No, not at all. China's increased scientific research is a benefit to all of us.
The only way you could possibly twist this into a bad thing is if you think China is going to become a military power and try to take over the world. But it's a LONG logical stretch between "greater scientific spending" and "army capable of conquering the rest of the world." So let's cheer up a little and not look at everything through the lens of fear. This is great!
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
Don't forget that they have a much larger population, so they will produce more papers just because there are more people. But as the summary points out, quantity and quality are two different things. In the past, we've seen articles on how competitive people are over there (few top schools, and too large a population = greater competition) to the point where there have been reports of academic dishonesty (not to say that they are the only ones, though).
Maybe theyl find more mixmatch dinosaurs and herbal viagra, but if the world of science elsewhere continues to bulk up on benefactor bia$ and special interest spin, then Il be just as happy to shun them all for my magic 8 ball. It already more accurate than the press and the local weathermen.
*Repent!Quit Your Job!Slack Off!The World Ends Tomorrow and You May Die!
believe me, you can make a statistician kill him/herself just by forcing him/her to read them.
As most Americans seem more concerned about burning bushes, the destruction of society by letting anyone marry, and other ridiculous religious nonsense. The stupi-di-fi-cation of America was started by the right-wing years ago because a dumb American is a controllable American.
A step rise in Chinese research - and in Indian, and other newly developed countries - means more total research happening around the world. More research and more results is a win for everyone.
In addition, the spread of research efforts mean that more avenues are explored, and that progress is not as dependent on the temporary political and scientific winds in any particular country or region.
Trust the Computer. The Computer is your friend.
The system of citations & referees is so crappy that a count of publications and citations is so corrupted that it is fairly irrelevant. It is the eruption of the techno entrepeneurs that measures & indicates the savvy and value of a nation.
China may do a lot of research, but it does not seem to do a lot of good research. If you've been to China, it is understandable why: There is very much a mentality of "Whatever you want to do is ok, so long as it gets you ahead." Lying, cheating, all perfectly ok. Well maybe you can argue this works in normal life and business (though some serious downsides can be pointed out) it doesn't work in science.
Feynman put it really well (he was talking about the Challenger disaster): "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled."
Well China's culture doesn't magically stop when you start talking universities and labs. The faking of results goes along strong, because it helps you get ahead. Publish more papers, be more prominent and all that. Works for the individual researcher, I suppose, but that means overall the research is useless. I can write as many papers as I like, fake as many results as I like, that claim that X causes Y. However if X does indeed not cause Y it doesn't do any good, I can't change reality.
Before China can become truly top at science, as in producing the most useful actual output, they'll have to have a cultural change, at least in the scientific community and probably the larger culture.
However I also fail to see why this is a big deal. I wouldn't consider myself all that worldly, but I've traveled to a fair number of countries not the US. All of them are by definition #2 or lower in science output, as well as many other things the US is #1 at. Guess what? that doesn't matter. They are nice places to live, with happy productive people, stable governments, and so on (I don't tend to visit countries that don't meet those requirements). I could move to Canada or the UK or Norway and be quite happy there. They may not be #1 in anything, I don't know, but it doesn't matter. You don't have to be the best at everything, I think maybe Americans need to learn that.
the report points out that a growing volume of research publications does not necessarily mean in increase in quality
No kidding. China (and Asia South-Pacific in general) has a rampant plagiarism problem. E.g.,:
http://www.forbes.com/fdc/welcome_mjx.shtml
http://articles.sfgate.com/2010-04-11/news/20844688_1_yuan-papers-professor
This practice has permeated many of the country's scientific journals, where it is commonplace to copy-and-paste large sections of others' work. International journals are typically able to shield this using "similarity detectors" and peer review, but the occasional hack-job still gets through occasionally.
-nod- We could get back on track in no time by just building a library in every town in America.
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I'm surprised; I thought the Chinese were already "beating us" (whatever that means) in Science. Good for them! Hopefully this will inspire the U.S. and Europe to get their shit together.
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Yea but would also mean China would have to Actually come up with stuff and not steal idea's from us.
Awesome. Then we can just copy their IP for a change.
Aww, go ahead and mod me troll. You know it's true.
Being in one of the largest hospitals in the US with a cancer research division comprised entirely of Chinese people, I must say I'm a bit surprised at the news.
However, the report points out that a growing volume of research publications does not necessarily mean in increase in quality...
Let's remember that although the USA discovered the silicon chip via Bell Telephone Laboratories USA, it was not until the Japanese came around and showed us what to do with it.
Guess what, several decades later, all our electronics are Asian made! What a shame! And the recent quake in Japan exposes how dependent we are on those Asians when it comes to sophisticated chips...forget INTEL and AMD.
I am afraid this story will be repeated but with China this time.
no, they just make for entertaining counterexamples/stories for their classes/clients.
"They were pure niggers." – Noam Chomsky
With the American tax code taxing 35% of all profits it is no wonder why these American companies with mountains of cash want to invest in R&D rather than let it sit in Asian or Swiss vaults.
Maybe if we did not have such high taxes more science and R&D could be done in America.
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Was Japan harmed because the US developed the nuclear bomb? Hell yes science is a competition--perhaps academic science is of potential benefit to everyone, but government and corporate science--I'm less optimistic.
... ummm
...
facebook profiles per capita?
Yeah! That'll show 'em! Hell yeah! USA! USA! USA!
Damn_registrars has no butt-hole. Damn_registrars has no use for a butt-hole.
if there isn't a library in every town in America, i think that should be done regardless.
book stores don't count.
America already has the Library of Congress, which increases scientific output by 50% in all cities. There are just too many entertainers, some of which should be converted to scientists. That should be pretty obvious to most Civ players, I hope.
This article is dumb for (at least) two reasons:
Dumb: As noted in the slashdot summary, quantity of papers isn't the same as quality. I have published physics papers in refereed journals, and my experience is that most scientific papers are correct but utterly inconsequential. They matter to the people who published them, because those people are desperate to get permanent jobs. Period.
Dumber: It's not a nuclear arms race, it's scientific research. By the (lame) metric of quantity of papers, the U.S. has increased its "output," while China has increased its "output" as well (and at a greater rate). Why is this a bad thing? Scientific progress enriches everyone.
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When the US is a third-rate, has-been country with no scientific or technological leadership in the world, the irony will be that it wasn't the Communists or terrorists that did us in ... it was all of those so-called America-loving conservatives who reward ignorance and shun scientific knowledge, who defund scientific research and agencies, who cut education and kill financial aide for college students, who attack scientists for daring to contradict the ideology with their elitist "facts." It will have been these people who damned our country.
Reminds me of this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTSQozWP-rM&feature=player_embedded
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With people complaining about STEM brain drain due to lack of science funding from the government, and STEM grads jumping into the luscious field of finance , what do you expect?
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The "Space Race" was the single greatest time in scientific advancement in history.
Not really - the space race was more about technology than science. Scientifically the problem was solved: there was no problem calculating the physics involved to go to the Moon - the problem was developing the technology capable of doing so. It was a fantastic motivator for science and remains one of mankind's shining achievements but was really the result of applying science rather than discovering new science.
Well, fine, so they're great at SCIENCE. How good are they at spying on their own citizens, printing money, and starting senseless wars? eh? eh? Yeah, that's what I thought, the US still has that market cornered... so there.
Greetings China! We demand $Technology as tribute for our continued friendship! Be aware, our words are backed by NUCLEAR FORCE!
I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?
Was US industry harmed when Japan started taking research seriously, and applying it to their products? Absolutely.
The alternative plan (assuming there wasn't some unexpected peace move) was to expand the fire bombing campaigns. Compare the casualty numbers of the fire bombings and the nuclear weapons, and it's fairly clear. The nuclear bombs were meant partially as a propaganda technique, and it succeeded, not only in Japan but also in many parts of the world. You rarely hear about the Tokyo fire bombing, even though there were more casualties.
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
Maybe they'll even let some of us study in their grad schools, like they did ours. In and out of classroom, in another culture, that would be fascinating.
... in scientific research when you see the following:
None of these apply to China yet, and I don't think it happen in 10 years, let alone 2 years. So, if I were an American policy maker, I'm not gonna to freak out yet.
We do have some advantages, such as infrastructure which we aren't renewing and are allowing to go to waste. We do have a bigger economy which we aren't using to our advantage. It's our destiny to be the slaves of the Chinese. America has become a nation of pathetic silent servants.
Interesting metaphor, let's see if one can extend it.
How does this work? "On top of irrelevant (for China) advantages, US also has the biggest trade deficit and foreign debt with China. To translate: the Chinese already paid for "merchandise" on the "international slave market" - the clock towards the moment they'll assert the ownership is ticking".
Questions raise, answers kill. Raise questions to stay alive.
China's science is about as good as US pharmacological (sorry drug cartel) science, full of flids, zombies, addicts and school shooters.
thank God the internet isn't a human right.
Let them do the heavy lifting for a while so we can just acquire it and reverse engineer it.
'R you sure you have enough funds and wetware for the R&D required to reverse-engineer? It's not like China would fill obliged to fill patent application with the US Patent Office to let you know how stuff work, "trade secrets" may be just enough for them.
Questions raise, answers kill. Raise questions to stay alive.
well. it's more like they stayed 'communist' (well more socialist dictatorship) long enough for us to get greedy and wasteful enough and then sucked us dry. not one nuke fired, sweet undercut.
thank God the internet isn't a human right.
Maybe if the US companies stopped suing eachother they would have more money to spend on R&D.
At least they'll have some money for a while. Even so, I'm not so sure they'll spend it on R&D... better chances are for the some dividends (to raise their stock prices) followed executive bonuses (because of the stock performance)... while the money last.
Questions raise, answers kill. Raise questions to stay alive.
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There are two kinds of people - those who are radioactive and those who have already decayed..
Plans, projections, expectations.
I agree with all these. However the outcome is in fact, NOT, a matter of fact, because it did not occur.
-josh
the offensive attack the US had planned if they didn't use the bomb would have been far worse. And that is historical fact.
Now, what did I claim was a fact? That they had planned a far worse campaign (essentially, they were going to continue and expand the firebombing and conventional campaign). Maybe something would have interceded to stop that plan, but the plan, as planned, would have caused far worse damage. The fact that it was planned is a fact. Clear? :)
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
"There is a single light of science, and to brighten it anywhere is to brighten it everywhere." Isaac Asimov
Yes, i played lots of civ4... why do you ask?
moi
From 2010: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11453384
"A Chinese rocket carrying a probe destined for the Moon has blasted into space."
"China launched its first manned flight into low-Earth orbit in 2003; and two more followed, with the most recent one in 2008."
With their population, lack of religion, their scientific output surge was inevitable and still is largely untapped. More to come, much more to come. And in Chinese.
Many historians would argue Japan was ready to surrender prior to the bombs being dropped. Some historians say Japan was actively trying to surrender before the bombs were dropped. But even taking what you say, it's still theory, not fact. It's not fact any more than Rumsfeld's theory that the US would take Iraq, that the US soldiers would be welcomed as liberators, and it would be a 30 to 90 day war which would cost no more than US$30Billion - And that Iraq oil revenues would pay for the war (i.e.: it wouldn't cost US taxpayers a cent). A few trillion US$ later..... You are still calling things "facts" when they're just your theory (aka a guess) as to how things would have played out.
With regards to the increased output of Chinese Universities; the degree one earns there may, or may not be, similar to what we have here in the West. There is a long history in China of study in Confucian institutions which awarded a Degree. Initially a Degree meant a position in the Government Bureaucracy of the time; essentially entrance into the upper class. At other times a Degree was required to enter civil society; perhaps an analogue to owning a business here in the U.S. now days. During those periods Degrees were bought rather then earned; sometimes at the explicit consent of the Dynasty in order to raise funds for extraordinary times.
His reading comprehension isn't at fault here.
the offensive attack the US had planned if they didn't use the bomb would have been far worse. And that is historical fact.
"That" refers to the preceding statement. The quote claims that a hypothetical outcome is a historical fact.
the offensive attack the US had planned (and that is historical fact) if they didn't use the bomb would have been far worse.
This is what you meant (and yes, it is most likely true).
The biggest fool may have the best idea, but being a fool it is stolen from him and exploited by others!
-
Sounds familiar - isn't it?
... in scientific research when you see the following:
- Sales and marketing are considered more important professions then doctor or scientist.
- Reality TV is considered an unmissable event.
- Solutions to problems involve cutting budgets to scientific organisations.
- It's popular to advertise your own ignorance.
- It's unpopular to show an aptitude for something.
- Scientific research in one area is halted by a religious minority waving an old book.
- You have to write lists of poorly thought out points to dissuade yourself from the fact science is failing in your own nation.
So if I were an American policy maker I wouldn't freak out because an uneducated populous allows you to openly serve other masters.
Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
not in science but in science "output", whatever that means. totally different.
As noted in the original article they used references as an indication of quality. On that basis China was 9th rising from 0 -> 4% of published papers.
Regarding numbers, my wife is a University Professor in France. She has a target of at least 4 papers per year. So even in the "west" quantity not quality can be an important driver to publish. One of her colleagues has been suspended for not publishing enough (well nothing at all for 5 years).
Oh please. There was no "China" ca. 200 BC. That's as bad as believing that, because it says to in a book, Jews are allowed to steal Palestinian land.
Yes, the US is an aggressive and expansive imperial power. But so is China. China is gaining influence in or buying up parts of South America and Africa. NATO is currently taking out some of its military hardware in Libya, where it was courting influence with Ghaddafi. It still claims to own the (relatively free and democratic) republic of Taiwan. There are more ways of taking over the world than by naked military aggression. China and the US: Tweedledum and Tweedledee.
From scarped cliff or quarried stone she cries "A thousand types are gone, I care for nothing, no not one."
....their supercomputers have cpu's ten years behind Intel's, but their science output overall will overtake the US in two years.
I think I'll wait and see if that happens, thanks.
Not much you can't do, if somebody is providing you with all of their technology and manufacturing expertise even as they shovel money in faster than you can spend it. It is too bad the Republicans and neoliberal Democrats so hate "labor" (while somehow trying to differentiate between "labor" and the American people each election cycle); without the blind spot about the capabilities of "workers" that hatred creates, they might not have made so many stupid assumptions as they were selling America out to the Chinese.
What is funniest of all to me is the masters of the aforementioned politicians are still formulating policy based upon a couple of amazingly stupid assumptions: That the dollar will always be king and that they will always control the dollar - and so control America and the world.
The dollar is just a figment of the human imagination; true wealth are resources and the ability to transform those resources into useful things. The Republicans and neoliberal Democrats have given such real and tangible assets away for great piles of an imaginary substance whose value is dependent upon whether or not those with real and tangible assets accept it.
Now that is leadership.
On the bright side, at least in continually attacking our education system the Republicans are doing what they can to ensure that we won't have to worry about catching back up with the Chinese in science.
Orwell: "In a Time of Universal Deceit, telling the Truth is a Revolutionary Act"
Not enough funding... mine more minerals ... I mean oil ...
The USA's lead in Creation Science is expected to be safe.
Thank goodness we didn't roll back the Bush era tax cut to pay for the last round of hysterical speculation by Wall Street.. Massive cuts in education on Main Street seem to be a much better prospect for the future.
The true threat is Zach Weiner. If his sinister plan goes through, he'll publish Infinity papers!
http://www.smbc-comics.com/index.php?db=comics&id=2198
My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
...a machine for turning grad students into published papers.
Just ignore the Visigoths storming the seven hills. We're Number One!!
You mean like General Electric that paid a whopping ZERO in taxes?
The good news is that the United States will be able to find something to do for all the people excreted from its deteriorating education system, once the service jobs have all filled/dried up. We can have cheap labor creating knock-off products based upon Chinese intellectual property.
...does that mean that ALL science expenditures will stop, and EVERYTHING will be funneled into WAR CHESTS and MILITARY SPENDING? I'll bet that it does....and all scientific innovations will be driven by the military.
I'm guessing, regardless of whether they got it or not, people agree that America has too many entertainers.
USA is falling behind China and India. If you want to be with the winners, it is time to move.
Leslie Satenstein Montreal Quebec Canada