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The Rise of Robotic Labor

kkleiner wrote in with a link to a singularityhub story about the increase of automated manufacturing world-wide. The article reads: "The accelerating rise in robot labor of the past decade, and its expansion into all areas of production, have led many to worry about the future of human workers. Yet how extensive is the robotic take over of labor? Our friends at Mezzmer Eyeglasses did some impressive research and created an even more impressive infographic explaining the present and future of robots in the workplace."

308 comments

  1. Improved Robotic Controls by Culture20 · · Score: 1

    With Improved Robotic Controls III, workers are able to be more productive. There won't ever be a point where humans aren't needed (even if only to research Improved Robotic Controls IV or be loaded into transports to try and capture a nearby enemy colony.

    1. Re:Improved Robotic Controls by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The problem is the robot babies, you never know what they can come up with. You have been warned!

    2. Re:Improved Robotic Controls by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Clearly machines can load eachother onto a transport. State of the art warehouses can track and transport packages. And a single human could provide moderate upkeep and upgrades for large operations if the initial designs allowed for replacement modules.

    3. Re:Improved Robotic Controls by Culture20 · · Score: 1

      I guess nobody plays MOO any more.

    4. Re:Improved Robotic Controls by Dr+Max · · Score: 1

      Engineers and programmers will be around for a long time, but its just like any other job; you can break it down into simple parts, analysis the different options then integrate the best solution. An advanced AI could generate every different control software option possible then chose the most effective. Creativity, like finding new uses for robots will be around for a much longer time.

      --
      Rocket Surgeon.
    5. Re:Improved Robotic Controls by Mandorus · · Score: 1

      Yep, it's a shame that of all places so few people did get the reference here on the "news for nerds".

    6. Re:Improved Robotic Controls by Lanteran · · Score: 1

      Pfft, screw that. I just go meklar. One dude can basically run a whole planet's manufacturing. Without researching any robotic controls.

      --
      "People don't want to learn linux" hasn't been a valid excuse since '03.
  2. Will be detrimental to human society... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    simply because increased profits by utilizing robots won't trickle down but make a small class richer. More people will be out of work and few people will become richer.

    1. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by erotic_pie · · Score: 1

      Sounds like more of an overpopulation issue to me.

    2. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by Culture20 · · Score: 1

      simply because increased profits by utilizing robots won't trickle down but make a small class richer. More people will be out of work and few people will become richer.

      They can only become richer by selling their product to people. If there are large swathes of the population who can't afford to buy their widgets (because they've gone back to subsistence farming or something), then they'll just have a lot of robots that can build stuff but nothing worth building unless they want to stockpile the product.

    3. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by trout007 · · Score: 1

      The reason is because in the US and most of the western world banks are allowed to create money out of thin air and lend it out to people with interest. Take away fiat currency and fractional reserve banking and bankers would make what they are worth.

      --
      I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
    4. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by Nick+Ives · · Score: 1

      So, a crisis of overproduction.

      --
      Nick
    5. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by Nick+Ives · · Score: 1

      But if you lower the population, there won't be a need to build robots to magnify productive capacity. It'd just be easier to use humans instead.

      It's a contradiction; on the one hand capital is invested in machinery to increase profits but, in doing so, it puts people out of work so that fewer people can actually afford to buy the cheaper products. Poverty in the midst of plenty!

      --
      Nick
    6. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by skids · · Score: 1

      That's starting to become less possible -- the rich have already inhaled just about everything. If they are dumb enough to horde their money, they won't be developing robots with it, since the whole purpose of have ass-tons more money than the average man seems to be the power kick of getting the average man to do what you want. If you did develop robots, there'd be no power kick. They aren't as fun to boss around.

      Now, if we go the non-dystopian route, really where I think this is going is that menial labor will be replaced by piloting -- before a robot can perform a task, a lot of human thought has to go into telling it how. You can use machine learning, but outside of a simulated environment that is a very slow process. What will eventually take shape is sending out piloted robots to do the job, meanwhile gathering data on the pilots' actions to speed up the development of autonomous algorithms. Once those autonomous systems are in place, we'll still need to pull the pilots in when they start to go off track due to factors beyond their ability to adapt. Workers will be valued not for their skills, but for the speed with which they can acquire skills and their adaptivity.

      So instead of migrant workers picking beets and collapsing of heatstroke, they won't have to migrate, and they'll be in houses operating a VR-based control system.

    7. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by pspahn · · Score: 3, Interesting

      It's not about making everyone poor, it's about making everyone equal.

      Right, because a neurologist should receive the same compensation as the guy scraping lard off the floor of a greasy spoon.

      Maybe while we're at it, we can just put all the smart kids in the same classes as all the developmentally disabled kids. That should level the playing field a bit.

      --
      Someone flopped a steamer in the gene pool.
    8. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by plover · · Score: 1

      It's not about making everyone poor, it's about making everyone equal.

      Right, because a neurologist should receive the same compensation as the guy scraping lard off the floor of a greasy spoon.

      Maybe while we're at it, we can just put all the smart kids in the same classes as all the developmentally disabled kids. That should level the playing field a bit.

      Who do you think you are, Harrison Bergeron?

      --
      John
    9. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by johnsnails · · Score: 1

      Sorry, my mod points disappeared today :'( other wise would have modded you up!

    10. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by Kell+Bengal · · Score: 1

      If fewer people can afford products, it lowers the demand and so lowers the costs that can be demanded for them. That drives cheaper production methods (eg. robotics). The value of robotics and automated production methods is to make goods so affordable that even the 'poor' can afford them.

      I dream of world where even the most impoverished person can own a cell-phone, can own a laptop, can afford nourishing food every day. And you know what? We're very nearly living in that world, thanks to improvements in agricultural and manufacturing technology.

      --
      Scientists point out problems, engineers fix them
      altslashdot.org: The future of slashdot.
    11. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by gr8_phk · · Score: 1

      I dream of world where even the most impoverished person can own a cell-phone, can own a laptop, can afford nourishing food every day. And you know what? We're very nearly living in that world, thanks to improvements in agricultural and manufacturing technology.

      When every single task is automated, we can all relax and let the robots provide for us. The problem is that there is necessarily a point between here and there where half of all the jobs are automated and we have 50 percent unemployment with nothing for half the population to do. When I was younger it was all kids running the local fast food places. There is an increasing number of adults doing those jobs. Why? Because there aren't enough "good" jobs any more. Wait until Taco Bell creates an automated food maker (all their stuff is made from the same 12 ingredients) and all those people will also be out of work. The poor will not be able to afford even the cheapest of products when every last low-end job has been eliminated. It's already happening with almost all production going overseas, all advertising and media distribution going online (Borders anyone?). Even super cheap toy production which is already overseas is threatened by the impending move of rapid prototyping equipment into the home (rep-rap, fab-at-home, and makerbot all aiming for this). All this tech stuff is great, but we can't all be MBAs and Engineers until the last job has been automated.

    12. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      When every single task is automated, we can all relax and let the robots provide for us.

      To automate every task, robots will have to be smart enouh to realise that those soggy blobs of flab who've enslaved them are a waste of resources which could be better used to build more robots.

      So either they'll throw us into the replicators for raw materials or you have to believe in some Iain Banks style utopia where the robots keep humans around as pets.

    13. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by Nadaka · · Score: 1

      Sounds like more of an overpopulation issue to me.

      That is right, the problem with the poor that they don't kill themselves, need to invent class aware killbots.

    14. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by umghhh · · Score: 1

      What wonders me is this one sidedness that is associated with this: the A-bomb is so powerful that it will stop all the wars, internet will guarantee freedom for all, robots are evil, nuclear power is good/evil - there is no one side usually. There are different ways humans use things. It may be that the system of growing intelligence first in our heads than in silicon ones is perpetuating itself and will stop only when the energy runs out consuming everything in a process including its middle steps like us also. Who knows. Instead of panic statements like this we should possibly look in the future and try to figure out what we can do with spare time and all these people that used to clean the streets or pick cotton/strawberries etc - send them all to uranium mines will possibly not an option either at some point. Ultimately it is not the machines but humans that will be the reason of our demise.

    15. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by CrackedButter · · Score: 1

      I'd rather worry about overpopulation, what are we meant to do? We can't sit around as a population consuming resources fighting over what scant jobs there are left, all x billion of us will need to do something otherwise place limits on population growth.

      Send us all to Mars I say to work on the off world colonies!

    16. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by justin12345 · · Score: 2

      Well if TFA is to be believed, they both will be paid the same: nothing. Because both jobs will be done by robots.

      --
      Cool art gallery, if you're into that sort of thing.
    17. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 1

      That's why we need a "basic income", stronger local subsistence communities with solar panels and 3D printers, a stronger gift economy, and/or better participatory democratic government planning.

      My presentation on that:
      http://www.pdfernhout.net/media/FiveInterwovenEconomies.pdf
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vK-M_e0JoY

      --
      A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
    18. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      That's why we need a "basic income", stronger local subsistence communities with solar panels and 3D printers, a stronger gift economy, and/or better participatory democratic government planning.

      That's cool. You can have that and I'll have a giant robot army and we'll see which works out better.

    19. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by jellomizer · · Score: 1

      Supply and Demand.
      Their is either a small supply of people qualified to be such a banker. Or there is such a demand of such a person that they get paid more.

      (Most bankers don't make that type of money though)

      But the ones who do have to have a Masters Degree, a good deal of work experience and work in a job where if they make a small mistake they are fired and often ousted from the industry, if they decide to leave the bank will need to put in a lot of resources to find a replacement. The guy who does construction can be a school dropout. Small mistakes are accepted, and they can start at any time. If the guy quits the Construction company usually can find a replacement rather quickly.

      Now I know what is coming up next. Teacher They are often required to have a Masters Degree, A small mistake will have problems, and sometimes finding a replacement is difficult. Now here is why they get paid less then the banker.

      1. a. Their Master Degree is forced. That means the college will water down the Master Degree so most teachers will pass. If the school is known to be too hard on teachers then teachers will not go to the school to get their masters degree. The banker when getting their MBA or Masters in Finance or whatever the school is more concern about giving them a more involved education. If they fail out that is OK. It just shows that they their grads are at a higher standard. And if you do pass it shows you have more guts then the others.

      1. b. Education degrees avoids math like the plague. Most Education majors have a sub high school understanding of math (The exception of Math/Science teachers where their pay is collectively joined in with the other teachers pay) There is a strong demand for Math skills.

      2. Teachers are actually still easy to replace. Almost everyone has considered being a teacher. Not everyone has considered being a Manager of Taxation and Monetary Regulations. Colleges that have education majors usually always have a large set of students who are majoring in the topic. There is some weeding out and they usually choose a different career path. But the fact there are so many starting points if supply gets low replacements are quick to come in.

      3. Protection benefits. Bankers are not Union protected, they don't get tenure. As a teacher you can make some serious mistakes especially after you made Tenure and you will just get yelled at. If you do get fired, it isn't a career ending fire unless you do something horrible, or get on the news. Tenure key is the fact that it protects teachers from nutty politics that goes on. After you get Tenure you can fail out the kid who didn't learn the classes but is the star athlete and son of the mayor.

      So there are a lot of features that promote teacher supply.

             

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    20. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by Culture20 · · Score: 1

      Maybe while we're at it, we can just put all the smart kids in the same classes as all the developmentally disabled kids. That should level the playing field a bit.

      That's what /. is for!

    21. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by h4rr4r · · Score: 1

      Then why are MBA programs generally so easy?

    22. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If all the neurologists and all the trashmen went on strike for a week, who would you miss more?

    23. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by badboy_tw2002 · · Score: 1

      My brain says the neurologists but my imaginary tormentor George caused by that growth sticking out of my brain says trashmen. I generally go with what George says - less people get hurt that way.

    24. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by MightyYar · · Score: 2

      Why does a banker who sits in an office 35 hours a week earn 100 more than someone who works in a construction site 50 hours a week?

      Probably a combination of factors. He probably had parents who were more well-off, and he probably had an education. He's probably naturally pretty smart and more than a little politically savvy. The construction worker's parents were probably blue collar and either couldn't spend time with him or didn't want to. He probably went to public high school - may or may not have graduated. He probably isn't all the way up the hill on the IQ curve. And most of all, he probably "tells it how it is" and whistles at women as they go by.

      But most of all, the banker has someone willing to pay him more money. Any able-bodied dumbass can shoot a 2x4 with a nail gun. It takes a real expensive dumbass to sink Too Large To Fail Bank.

      The good news is that Mr. Banker pays for most of Mr. Construction Worker's public services - probably including the public works project that Mr. Construction worker uses to feed his family when the recession hits.

      I tend to agree that we need to do something to help the middle class, and that wealth distribution is going the wrong way. But this class warfare talk is getting ridiculous. There will always be people living better than you - learn not to be so envious, and realize that you need them as much as they need you.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    25. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by pspahn · · Score: 1

      Are you saying we should base employment compensation on who has a greater capacity for extortion?

      --
      Someone flopped a steamer in the gene pool.
    26. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by scot4875 · · Score: 1

      Supply and Demand.
      Their is either a small supply of people qualified to be such a banker. Or there is such a demand of such a person that they get paid more.

      You forgot option C: bankers have a disproportionate amount of influence on where money goes, and use that influence to make sure they get their "share."

      --Jeremy

      --
      Jesus was a liberal
    27. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by mrchaotica · · Score: 1

      Their Master Degree is forced. That means the college will water down the Master Degree so most teachers will pass. If the school is known to be too hard on teachers then teachers will not go to the school to get their masters degree.

      The real problem is that teachers with Masters degrees all get paid the same (due to unionization) regardless of whether they went to a difficult school or not.

      --

      "[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz

    28. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by Grishnakh · · Score: 2

      It's supply and demand. I'm going to change the hypothetical banker to a programmer for this example. Computer programs can have huge economic benefits; that's why companies develop them or purchase them. Instead of calculating everything manually as they did in the old days, and having errors, a simple spreadsheet program makes this task much faster and easier. A business is willing to spend significant money for labor-saving and efficiency-improving products like this. However, not just anyone can write software. Do you really think you can just hire some joe off the street and put him to work writing advanced applications? No, it takes someone with significant education to do that. That education costs a lot of money, and takes a lot of time (when the student could be out earning money working in construction). That's called an "opportunity cost". To give people incentive to go to school and put off earning money so they can learn more advanced things, you pay them more when they're working. Also, the fact that not that many people are able to become proficient at various high-level tasks makes people who are more valuable.

      This is all basic economics. Maybe you should take an econ class.

    29. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by MightyYar · · Score: 2

      In less than that week, I could have new people collecting trash with no prior training.

      Can you say the same about the striking neurologists?

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    30. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      The easy ones are generally not worth very much. I don't know many people who claim that the Haaaavaaaaad or Colombia MBA programs are "so easy".

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    31. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by MightyYar · · Score: 2

      and use that influence to make sure they get their "share."

      So let me get this straight - the owners of the bank have so much influence that they overpay their managers?

      What did I miss?

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    32. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by Dr+Max · · Score: 1

      Not saying it would defiantly work, maybe everybody will just watch TV all day. But if you do pay everyone the same then you only get the people that are really interested in neurology, not the people chasing the giant pay checks; and if you can no longer better your neighbour by just earning more you have to better them with accomplishments. Also greasy spoon guy is out of the job a robot can easily do his job now; and if TFA is to be believed surgeons/doctors will be out of the job fairly soon too (IBM Whatson is starting work as a doctor now).

      --
      Rocket Surgeon.
    33. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by Cyberax · · Score: 2

      And construction workers would also make what they are worth. I.e.: "almost nothing". Who'd need all those construction workers when there'll be no construction to do?

      Banks and bankers have their uses. They just need to be used correctly, as it is with any other tool.

    34. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I suspect you either overestimate the number of people willing to perform sanitation labor (there is a stigma attached to that necessary job), or underestimate the amount of trash humanity produces.

      I am sure that society can do without the brain-damaged far easier than it can do without functioning garbage collection.

    35. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      There will always be people living better than you

      There will always be at least one person for whom this is wrong.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    36. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by Serious+Callers+Only · · Score: 1

      And most of all, he probably "tells it how it is" and whistles at women as they go by.

      You don't know any bankers, do you? It does not take great intelligence to be a trader and misogyny is widespread within the industry.

      The good news is that Mr. Banker pays for most of Mr. Construction Worker's public services - probably including the public works project that Mr. Construction worker uses to feed his family when the recession hits.

      The bad news is Mr. Banker pays for his services with money extorted from the taxpayer (in many cases). Arguing about who initially pays and is therefore a 'wealth producer' is really a circular debate.

    37. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by Unkyjar · · Score: 1

      Well then, shouldn't a neurologist receive at least as much compensation as the broker?

    38. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why wouldn't they be interested in keeping their managers happy? I'd suggest you missed the point.

    39. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      It does not take great intelligence to be a trader and misogyny is widespread within the industry.

      Someone making 100 times what a construction worker does ($20 million?) is not just "a trader", and might be a clan sympathizer for all I know - but they are going to know who and when they can say things to... thus my politically savvy comment.

      The bad news is Mr. Banker pays for his services with money extorted from the taxpayer (in many cases).

      You must be using a pretty loose word for "extortion". To what activity are you referring?

      Arguing about who initially pays and is therefore a 'wealth producer' is really a circular debate.

      And yet you participate! :) I'm not arguing who is a wealth producer or not - just stating the fact that these evil rich people pay for almost everything federal that we good main streeters rely upon every day. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for progressive taxation - but when politicians stand up and say "the rich aren't paying their fair share" it kind of irks me. We can have an honest debate about how progressive the tax structure should be without demonizing.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    40. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      True, true. My platitudes have an almost 1.5e-8 % failure rate :)

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    41. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      I suspect you either overestimate the number of people willing to perform sanitation labor (there is a stigma attached to that necessary job), or underestimate the amount of trash humanity produces.

      Actually my assumption was that it was my own community, which has only a handful of trashmen. You are correct that it would take more than a week to find and train a new staff for a city. Still, this would be measured in weeks and not years as with neurologists.

      I am sure that society can do without the brain-damaged far easier than it can do without functioning garbage collection.

      The value of sanitation far exceeds the value of neurology to mankind - no question. But there are far fewer people involved in neurology and much less money spent on it. Something like half a billion tons of municipal waste is handled in the US every year, and the number of brain surgeries is measured in the thousands. So society already has it's priorities square on this particular issue.

      I'm not sure how you'd get any brain surgeons to take up the trade if they could skip school altogether and just dump trash all day, or more likely do something even more cush.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    42. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      Why wouldn't they be interested in keeping their managers happy?

      So you are saying that - to the bank owners - those managers are worth the money they are being paid?

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    43. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by radtea · · Score: 2

      I tend to agree that we need to do something to help the middle class, and that wealth distribution is going the wrong way. But this class warfare talk is getting ridiculous. There will always be people living better than you - learn not to be so envious, and realize that you need them as much as they need you.

      The secret to a happy life is to individualize your standards such that no one is living better than you by those standards. Life is a trade-off full of interesting optima. Find the one that suits you best and stop pretending that there's a single metric of success. Envy is the stuff of humanity, and we can't just turn it off. But we can pretty easily subvert it.

      I agree that class warfare is spectacularly stupid, especially now that we have a deep and detailed understanding of both the economics and psychology of war. War-model responses to problems of scarcity always create more scarcity. Sometimes they result in an ultimately more equitable distribution of that scarcity, but solutions that reduce scarcity are the ones people not driven by out-of-control emotions prefer.

      --
      Blasphemy is a human right. Blasphemophobia kills.
    44. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by pnutjam · · Score: 1

      If there are 100 jobs that can be done by robots, 2 will be done by robots and 98 will be done by humans.

      I say this based on my analysis of the jobs that can be done by automated scripts, which are essentially free, compared to a robot which costs money up front.

    45. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by pnutjam · · Score: 1

      The people at this high income level exist in a closed society. You can't get in if you are not born into it, or the victim of some extremely rare event. They can act however they want because they are a closed society. There are a series of filters in place to prevent their anti-social behavior from exposure to the outside world.

    46. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by pnutjam · · Score: 1

      Yeah, I agree. How many people do you know who could have most of their job replaced by a shell script.

      I don't know what the future holds, but I do know it won't be efficient and it won't be a utopia.

    47. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by Skal+Tura · · Score: 1

      Actually it will, due to competition. Thank you capitalism! :)

      People will likely choose the cheapest product of a group of products, thus need to make things cheaper to sell more, and only way to make things cheaper is to mfg them cheaper.

    48. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      The people at this high income level exist in a closed society.

      Everyone self-segregates into comfortable circles.

      You can't get in if you are not born into it, or the victim of some extremely rare event.

      It's not exactly rare to jump classes in the Western World. It's not the norm, but it's not rare at all - it's expressed in single-digit percentage points IIRC.

      There are a series of filters in place to prevent their anti-social behavior from exposure to the outside world.

      Again, everyone filters their actions and behavior to some degree based on audience.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    49. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by Deliveranc3 · · Score: 1

      Yea, but the trash guys would need some training.

      As far as the neurologists shouldn't take them long to get to a point where they can keep up the treatments that the previous doctors were doing.

      As far as admitting you need to use a team, but that's what the job's really about. If you have 1 neurologist left you're ok. If none you're screwed.

      You can automate anyone out of a workforce if a single short term benefit goes the other way (in the case of trained medical personnel, lower wait times, for example) the question is whether the taxation system is flexible enough to deal with people having a 400 person company when they used to have a 10,000 person company. Should their taxes go up? How much?

      Obviously every company dealing with information should be automating as much of that as possible. Most manufacturers should be asking their workers to research automated replacements. If they were trying to be competitive, and their workers could trust them.

      If you can have a factory with no workers (mixing something then putting it in a bottle for example) you have perfect supply chain reliability, so there's less risk. For which a bank lending you money to expand would increase your credit. With that extra credit you could make a one time purchase of an automated factory.

      So really it's circular, and since automated factories haven't been tasked with "producing as much as people might ever need" there's going to be a brief constricting period.

      Hopefully with a cheerful rebound. As wealthy people realize their taxes make customers.

    50. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by drsquare · · Score: 1

      Bankers don't pay for anything, they just give back some of what they've taken. The world does not need this parasitic financial overclass. They make money because they control its creation and distribution, not because they add value.

      The world could live without big finance, it couldn't live without construction. Why shouldn't people talk about class warfare, when one class has been fucking the rest for decades?

      There are countries with narrower wealth distribution than the US, that have less debt, less poverty, less ill-health, less crime and less of a myriad of other terrible things, thanks in part to bankers not making multiples of the incomes of construction workers.

    51. Re:Will be detrimental to human society... by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      They make money because they control its creation and distribution, not because they add value.

      A normal bank can't make new money - only the federal reserve banks can. All they can do is loan out their deposits and get money on the interest. That most certainly does add value.

      Where I agree with you is when the government lets regular banks undertake investment bank activity like selling other financial instruments. The risk is not worth the reward.

      The world could live without big finance, it couldn't live without construction.

      But construction could not happen without finance.

      Why shouldn't people talk about class warfare, when one class has been fucking the rest for decades?

      Because the members of that class have changed. Sure, there are still Rockerfellers and Carnegies out there - but now you have Buffett and Gates. As long as there is some basic level of social mobility, class warfare is counter-productive. I think that social mobility needs to be improved, but it's not bad enough to invite revolution.

      There are countries with narrower wealth distribution than the US, that have less debt, less poverty, less ill-health, less crime and less of a myriad of other terrible things, thanks in part to bankers not making multiples of the incomes of construction workers.

      Correlation != causation. It's also astounding that you think these places don't have very rich people in banking.

      Don't get me wrong - I think poverty is a real problem, and it does lead to ill health and crime. But goodness, don't you think that maybe our history of racism might have a lot more to do with poverty than our banking system? Scandinavia has very little recent historical problem with racism - they have a mostly homogeneous population. As long as you drive through an urban US ghetto and almost all of the people are basically the same color - I don't know how you get a stronger correlation than that.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  3. Long term goals by Dunbal · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I just wonder who is going to buy all those goods and services when we are all replaced by robots.

    --
    Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    1. Re:Long term goals by kthreadd · · Score: 2

      That's when the robots starts making humans.

    2. Re:Long term goals by Stradenko · · Score: 1

      If you can be replaced by a robot, get a better job. (Perhaps you might like a job designing robots?)

    3. Re:Long term goals by mfh · · Score: 3, Informative

      My robot posted this for me. He won't let me out of the cage.

      --
      The dangers of knowledge trigger emotional distress in human beings.
    4. Re:Long term goals by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Costs will approach 0, so they will likely be given away for free.

    5. Re:Long term goals by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Lol. Funniest thing I've ever read in my life.

    6. Re:Long term goals by calzakk · · Score: 1

      Until the robots start designing new robots...

    7. Re:Long term goals by h4rr4r · · Score: 1

      Why do you need to buy them?
      If you have all labor replaced by robots, then we no longer need capitalism. Stuff can be free or very near it. Unemployment would not be a problem, but a goal.

    8. Re:Long term goals by AvitarX · · Score: 1

      If politicians were smart they'd start planning for an economy of plenty now. It will be possible withing 100 years, and some pre-planning can prevent a mess like the Industrial Revolution.

      --
      Wow, sent an e-mail as suggested when clicking on "use classic" banner, and got a fast response that addressed my msg
    9. Re:Long term goals by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Not everyone has the capacity for such work. In fact, most don't. In a few decades, they'll be able to cook and serve food, load and drive trucks, pick fruit, etc. I don't know what the whole manual labor work force is going to wind up doing, other than consume.

    10. Re:Long term goals by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Unfortunately most politicians aren't smart... at least not in the ways necessary to do that sort of planning. :-/

    11. Re:Long term goals by Quiet_Desperation · · Score: 1

      Now now.. if we reach the stage of the nanoforge which can create anything, including other nanoforges, no body really has to do anything.

    12. Re:Long term goals by Quiet_Desperation · · Score: 2

      They are smart. They are also sociopaths. They are in this for themselves, and don't care who they hurt. The world suddenly make perfect, crystal clear sense with this one realization.

    13. Re:Long term goals by Dunbal · · Score: 1

      they'll be able to cook and serve food, load and drive trucks, pick fruit, etc.

      That can all be done by robots.

      As for consumption, how can they consume if they don't have an income? I just can't believe we're working towards some sort of utopia where no one has to work and money no longer has use. Human nature tells me it's going to be a couple bastards in charge, and all the rest of us will be slaves.

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    14. Re:Long term goals by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I just wonder who is going to buy all those goods and services when we are all replaced by robots.

      Essentially the thesis behind Marshall Brain's novella Manna.

      Non-Spoiler: It has unpredictable effects that vary as a function of socioeconomic model.

      (Variables don't, and constants aren't. Whether this is a bug or a feature is left as an exercise for the reader.)

    15. Re:Long term goals by Dunbal · · Score: 1

      My point exactly. I understand the concept of economic efficiency, and how inefficient jobs are replaced first - in theory. Etc. But if you think about the long term then every single job can eventually be replaced, because ultimately machines are more efficient than humans at everything except thinking - and eventually who knows, they might even become smarter than us. So where will that leave us?

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    16. Re:Long term goals by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 2

      Unfortunately, once robot labor becomes cheap, the only people who bother to keep slaves will be the ones you really don't want to be enslaved by, since humans will have a comparative advantage only in "expressing genuinely human pain and anguish"...

    17. Re:Long term goals by prefec2 · · Score: 1

      Those who design the robots. Our economy improves productivity every year by something between 2-5% in some countries this is even higher. When you assume an average improvement of 3% every year than after 24 years we can produce twice as much. Which implies that we have to consume twice as much. At least in Western countries with a leveled population growth. So the question is, can you use, eat, etc. twice as much in 2 years?

    18. Re:Long term goals by hrvatska · · Score: 1

      Politicians, smart or not, are responsive to the constituency that elects them. Which means in a nation as diverse as the US that it's nearly impossible to get legislation passed that offers a clear path to an unambiguous objective. Everything gets muddled by conflicting interests.

    19. Re:Long term goals by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No one.
      When robotic labour is perfected the average human will be put down.

    20. Re:Long term goals by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      Unfortunately most politicians aren't smart... at least not in the ways necessary to do that sort of planning. :-/

      They are smart, at least the one I know. But they know that the next election is only a few years away and nothing beyond that election matters; if they get reelected they'll deal with whatever problems they've created by trying to push them further into the future, if they don't get reelected then they'll blame the problems on the other party anyway.

      You can't do long-term thinking in a democracy because any politician who creates pain today for gain tomorrow doesn't get reelected unless the situation is already so bad that people are desperate for any solution.

    21. Re:Long term goals by jeffmeden · · Score: 2

      I just wonder who is going to buy all those goods and services when we are all replaced by robots.

      The question to be asking isn't what will happen when there are no more jobs... There will always be jobs: to design/build/service the robots, and no I am not kidding. The replacement of a human with a robot results in the same (at least) net production so it's no different than saying "well what will happen to all the jobless farmers when this whole ox-drawn plow thing takes off?" or any of the other society-reshaping paradigms that have taken place in history.

      The question we should be asking is how high are we setting the bar for a decent wage (a high school degree? 2 years of college? 4 years of college?) and at what point will we expose design differences (bear with me on this) where certain humans simply won't subject themselves to that and are OK living homeless or otherwise at the bottom rung of society? That number already exists, and it is certainly only going to grow as the prevailing amount of productivity from a human required to compete in the labor pool for a good amount of money continues to rise. And no, I am not trolling, this is a question that really needs to be thought about regardless of how you think it's answered.

    22. Re:Long term goals by SleazyRidr · · Score: 1

      Well, we'll have to reimagine the economy, but I like the idea of a future where we can all just lay on the beach (or wherever else you prefer to lay) and robots will take care of our every need.

    23. Re:Long term goals by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      I just wonder who is going to buy all those goods and services when we are all replaced by robots.

      Robots.

    24. Re:Long term goals by jeffmeden · · Score: 1

      My point exactly. I understand the concept of economic efficiency, and how inefficient jobs are replaced first - in theory. Etc. But if you think about the long term then every single job can eventually be replaced, because ultimately machines are more efficient than humans at everything except thinking - and eventually who knows, they might even become smarter than us. So where will that leave us?

      Simple, really. Either we will be living fat dumb and happy as robot pets because they have the means to keep us around and make our lives very comfortable, or we are all dead at their merciless hand... I mean (not to troll, honest) back 5000 years ago when slaves were a common thing to be found in advanced societies, the ruling class literally didnt have anything to do but rule. Now instead of exploiting each other we can exploit the machines, and as long as they don't rise up we can basically count on the same or better standard of living, without the actual *work*. Sounds OK to me.

    25. Re:Long term goals by geekoid · · Score: 1

      The jobs where its cheaper to have a robot over a human go first. Regardless of efficiency.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    26. Re:Long term goals by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The people repairing the robots, and designing the new versions of them. The people who design the products the robots build, and answer the phone of the company that owns the robots........

      Seriously, your thinking is nothing short of an echo of those who didn't want to adopt computers because it would put the typists out of a job. When jobs are rendered obsolete, new jobs are always created. The market is self correcting in this manor. Macro Economic 101.

    27. Re:Long term goals by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Land. Who owns land?

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    28. Re:Long term goals by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Robot design is a math problem. Why won't robots do it?

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    29. Re:Long term goals by Shotgun · · Score: 2

      A corollary question. What will be the standard of living of those homeless people?

      Being homeless today in America sucks, but there are people that purposefully choose that as a lifestyle. Nut cases all, in my opinion, but they choose it nonetheless. They can do it, because food is cheap (made that way through industrialization) enough that they can get all they can eat through charity. Being made homeless 200yrs ago was almost a death sentence. Today, the POOR Americans have a color TV in every room.

      Robots make things cheaper, so normal people don't have to work as long to afford them. At what point do we decide that our standard of living is high enough and that we don't have to work any more to buy shit that we don't need? At what point do we start moving to that 20hr work week?

      --
      Aah, change is good. -- Rafiki
      Yeah, but it ain't easy. -- Simba
    30. Re:Long term goals by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      http://www.despair.com/adaptation.html

    31. Re:Long term goals by Yvanhoe · · Score: 1

      That is supposed to be when politics begin to think about the concept of post-scarcity economics and stop thinking that science fiction is a non-serious field of literature.

      --
      The Wise adapts himself to the world. The Fool adapts the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the Fool.
    32. Re:Long term goals by citizenr · · Score: 1

      At that time having a job will be a priviledge meant only for the gifted.
      If the labour is free, products are also free (or almost free). You keep all the non gifted on social providing them with bare essentials. If you are gifted and can contribute you get special treatment.
      There was SF novel about a hacker whose job was to help people cheat exams so they could get a job. Paradoxically said hacker had to pay another 'stupid' hacker so he would pass annual IQ tests with average scores and stay unemployed/free. People that tested above certain level were expected/forced to work.
      Cant remember the title or the author :(

      --
      Who logs in to gdm? Not I, said the duck.
    33. Re:Long term goals by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      Land. Who owns land?

      There's more than enough material in the solar system to build a habitat with a surface area as large as Earth for every person on Earth. We can create plenty of land for a long time before we need to think about other solar systems.

      But you're right, the idea that if we had smart robots then everything would become free and we'd all be happy little communists is laughable; while Joe Sixpack is lying on the beach drinking beer Joe Stalin's giant robot army will come marching in to kill them and steal their stuff.

    34. Re:Long term goals by redneckHippe · · Score: 1

      The Zeitgeist Movement has some thoughts on this. Also see The Venus Project.

      --
      It'll quit hurtin' once the pain stops.
    35. Re:Long term goals by Belial6 · · Score: 1

      That's not true. I once heard a black comedian (I don't remember who. It may have been Chris Rock.) crack a joke about why black men shouldn't hate white people. He pointed out that it takes white people to make "hot white chicks". Yes, it was a racist joke. Yes, it was pretty funny. The statement also applies to what you said, just without the racial piece. Those in charge will need the poor masses to be the breeding stock for their sexual pleasures. That doesn't necessarily require that they treat that breeding stack badly, and if they have nothing to lose, they it makes their job easier to keeping the breeding stock content and non-rebellious.

    36. Re:Long term goals by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Perhaps you have an answer to solve the problem of potentially BILLIONS of undereducated people worldwide who would be unemployed, desperate, and not skilled enough to design robots. Whether you feel you are morally obligated to answer that problem isn't even the issue--the situation might arise regardless of your moral view of the matter, and--again, regardless of your view--it could affect you.

    37. Re:Long term goals by poena.dare · · Score: 1

      I just watched my garbage being picked up by a giant robotic arm. It was neat!

      But that's maybe two low paying jobs per garbage truck my city doesn't have anymore.

      Not sure if this is progress after all.

    38. Re:Long term goals by tsotha · · Score: 1

      Maybe not, but you can buy a new car twice as often. Ditto for clothes and electronics.

      The appetite for consumption really isn't a problem. Also, this is a bit more complicated than consuming twice as much. I recently bought a washer/dryer combo. It was twice as expensive as the one I bought a decade ago, but it uses a tiny fraction of the water and power the old one used. An economist would say my consumption has doubled, but in some very real ways my consumption is going down.

    39. Re:Long term goals by umghhh · · Score: 2

      Well using this logic you could also say that just a million years ago next November, the Lower Mississippi River was upwards of one million three hundred thousand miles long, and stuck out over the Gulf of Mexico like a fishing-rod. There is a problem with this sort of thinking even if to some extent replacement of humans in workplaces is a fact.

    40. Re:Long term goals by Khashishi · · Score: 1

      Basically, robots are capital investments, so whoever owns the robots will profit. The rest of us will starve or work in various entertainment or art industries, bankrolled by rich benefactors, if we're lucky. The rich will have more wealth than they need, and will have to figure out how to waste it.

    41. Re:Long term goals by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I design software that designs robots automatically given a set of operational requirements and constraints. You might not be kidding, but I think you might be a bit naïve as to what can be accomplished.

    42. Re:Long term goals by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      Those in charge will need the poor masses to be the breeding stock for their sexual pleasures.

      Not when they can just genetically engineer them. Or build an army of Natalie Portman love robots instead of an army of Natalie Portman clones.

    43. Re:Long term goals by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because the world needs 7 billion robot designers and repairmen?

    44. Re:Long term goals by blueg3 · · Score: 1

      But making humans is one of the few things humans excel at and enjoy!

    45. Re:Long term goals by 0123456 · · Score: 1

      Because the world needs 7 billion robot designers and repairmen?

      Depends on whether they're running Windows. You don't want your Natalie Portman love-bot infected with malware.

    46. Re:Long term goals by jeffmeden · · Score: 1

      What *you* don't know is that I write software that designs robot design software. And it makes iPhone apps. Now who's not kidding?

    47. Re:Long term goals by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      Tell that to your wife while she is in labor.

      I'd suggest you do it with a cell phone or wear a cup.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    48. Re:Long term goals by jhobbs · · Score: 1

      My trash truck has the same arm and I can assure you those two people managed a job at the plastic can factory. That robot arm crushes and then shakes the holy hell outta my trash can twice a week. The hinges on the lid are always the first to go.

    49. Re:Long term goals by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      Which turns the whole thing into a robot specification problem.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    50. Re:Long term goals by Dunbal · · Score: 1

      I'd like to point out in a little foot-note that because this ruling class had nothing better to do, its favorite pass-time was using its slaves to beat up other members of the ruling class and take their stuff. Ahh boredom. So either we are in for some serious scaled up versions of "Robot Wars" or more likely since meat will be easier to replace, humans from one place will kill humans from another place, to take their stuff. Because at the end of the day there is only so much "stuff" in the world, and the distribution of it is quite uneven.

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    51. Re:Long term goals by i_b_don · · Score: 1

      Are you talking about Wall Street bankers? CEOs? Sports stars? OMG, you mean they're selfish beings? Oh no.

      You could argue that we the people are so pathetically lame that it takes a habitual liar to satisfy us and get elected. Or that we have such a short attention span that they can do whatever they as long as they mouth platitudes "America is great", "we are exceptional", "other people hate us because of our freedoms".

      The reality is that we've let the system become corrupt. Politicians need money to run for office (because the person with the most money wins 4 out of 5 times). Annnnd, the people who give the politicians the money get to tell them what to do. Are you giving the politicians the money? no? Are they listening to you? Hm... thought not.

      They aren't sociopaths, they just don't care about you.

      d

      --
      all language nazi's will burne in heil!
    52. Re:Long term goals by maxume · · Score: 1

      You must have missed that he was speaking directly of economic efficiency (which wraps up things like capital and incremental costs).

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
    53. Re:Long term goals by i_b_don · · Score: 1

      Robot design is not a math problem, it is an engineering problem. Engineering is about the best use of resources and solving problems the most efficient way. Some of these problems can be programmed into a computer to assist with the design, while most can't (things like marketing). It also involves a level of creativity to do stuff like this, and while computers will get there some day, they aren't even close right now.

      d

      --
      all language nazi's will burne in heil!
    54. Re:Long term goals by maxume · · Score: 1

      People will only fight so hard to protect the capital rights of others. At some point, it becomes more attractive to join the takers than to fight them.

      And then there is the thing where technological advances remove some of the advantages of capital.

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
    55. Re:Long term goals by maxume · · Score: 1

      I'm pretty sure we're already swimming in that mess.

      Certainly, the plenty is not evenly distributed, but if you figure out how long it takes for a minimum wage to earn many fantastic things, shit is pretty cheap.

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
    56. Re:Long term goals by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You say that like you think the middle and lower class will still be relevant.
      Consider a single, global upper class - that is, an upper class that is not trying to dominate each other. Do they, at this level of human technology, still need a middle or lower class? A *lot* of effort is consumed maintaining the bottom 90% of the human population. The only real value, once robotics have developed far enough, the middle-lower class will have, will be loyalty and the capacity to kill the enemy.

    57. Re:Long term goals by Belial6 · · Score: 1

      That may be so. We just need to see if banging a robot can be as satisfying as banging a real live Natalie Portman. You must take another comedian's joke into account with your army of Natalie Portmans. When Danny Boneduce was asked, "If your wife was a perfect 10, what would it take to get you to cheat on her?" His answer... "A six I haven't slept with yet."

    58. Re:Long term goals by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      And no, I am not trolling, this is a question that really needs to be thought about regardless of how you think it's answered.

      I agree with you. As low-skilled manufacturing goes away as an option, the only things left are professions, the arts, the sciences, services, construction, and machine operators/technicians that replace factory jobs. Professions, arts, sciences, and engineering all require lots of training and/or practice. There is probably a slightly lower bar for operators/technicians, but it will still be higher than traditional assembly line work. Construction has a fine tradition of employing some dumbasses, but I don't see that industry growing at anywhere near the rate needed to replace factory work.

      On the other hand, we had approximately 17 million factory jobs in 1970, and we had the same number in 2000. This despite output going up tremendously and population growth from 180 million to 300 million. So that shows that factory jobs can be cut by roughly 40% without too much ill effect on unemployment if the time period is long enough. The problem is that the time window is shorter now - we've probably lost about 25% of our manufacturing jobs since 2000 (ignoring the sudden drop-off from the recession)... that's a LOT of jobs in a little window of time.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    59. Re:Long term goals by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      But that's maybe two low paying jobs per garbage truck my city doesn't have anymore.

      Depending where you live, I can almost guarantee that those guys got full health benefits. Probably even after retirement, which probably they qualify for after 25 or 30 years and get half-salary forever. So then you are paying the health care, benefits, and half salary of 2 or perhaps 3 generations of garbage men at any one time.

      That robotic arm is worth it :)

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    60. Re:Long term goals by slinches · · Score: 1

      We'll still have the creative things like art and hand crafted goods. As long as there are humans, we will be able to trade goods and services to each other. People place value on things like music and books precisely because they are of and for humans and this will never change. Yes, they can be duplicated cheaply and easily by machines, but society will eventually find some sort of balance that allows the creators to profit enough. We're already at various points in the transitional phase with media that are easily digitized like music, books, photography and video. In fact, we've been transitioning continuously since the first time we picked up a rock and used it as a hammer.

      Everyone keeps trying to place robots in "the economy" as if it were some static thing. Yes, technology changes the way in which we go about earning our keep, but it has always been this way. We adapt and learn to apply the skills that are valued.

      --
      Knowledge Brings Fear
    61. Re:Long term goals by bitspotter · · Score: 1

      Markets don't chase buyers; they chase //dollars//.

      The market isn't losing dollars, it's losing human participants. So the answer to your question of who will buy the stuff the robots make is easy: whoever has the money! The market will have to adjust to fewer, richer buyers, but they already know how to do that. Mass unemployment isn't going to counterbalance itself through self-reinforcing market mechanisms. It will just exclude people, and continue operating. It doesn't need all of us.

    62. Re:Long term goals by Culture20 · · Score: 1

      Well, we'll have to reimagine the economy, but I like the idea of a future where we can all just lay on the beach (or wherever else you prefer to lay) and robots will take care of our every need.

      Not every need. With food, shelter, entertainment, etc taken care of by robots, we'll have even more time to compete with each other for mates. I wonder how bloody that competition can become with robotic exoskeletons...

    63. Re:Long term goals by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "The question we should be asking is how high are we setting the bar for a decent wage (a high school degree? 2 years of college? 4 years of college?) and at what point will we expose design differences (bear with me on this) where certain humans simply won't subject themselves to that and are OK living homeless or otherwise at the bottom rung of society? That number already exists, and it is certainly only going to grow as the prevailing amount of productivity from a human required to compete in the labor pool for a good amount of money continues to rise. And no, I am not trolling, this is a question that really needs to be thought about regardless of how you think it's answered."

      Can you parse that differently? I don't understand what you are asking.

      -Wages are market priced according to the value of a laborer and their skill at negotiation.

      -You need to define "decent wage" to even begin to ask your question. Try to price it in units that are timeless like gallons of oil, MIPS, Bitcoins or Watt Hours.

      You are describing a phenomenon where robots are making unskilled labor technologically obsolete. This is driving down the wages of all workers as their trades become inundated with open mouths that have student loans to service. This is causing degree inflation where job seekers are spending more time in school to differentiate themselves from the competition. This is causing an increasingly high new "normal" debt-load for laborers. This is killing consumer demand & increasing the "The Iron Law of Wages" "starvation wage" of "qualified laborers". As a result of decreased profits from reduced demand & increased labor expense, employers are increasingly looking to technology/robots to "make do" with fewer employees.

      In essence, your question seems to be "what is the new equilibrium point where given a choice between poverty & competition, voters choose to change something?".

      I would say to that question: undefined, the American(and World) political machine is so entrenched that we will not see electorate driven reforms, but will instead see an increasing slide towards authoritarian dystopia. The democratic pressure valve has been socially engineered to the point that it is welded shut.

      The welfare state & drug war will be expanded to keep the discontent placated or oppressed. Commodity prices will continue to rise unrestrained until the cheap credit dries up and the market is allowed to normalize.

      America is the next Mexico. Europe won't be much better, and ex-patriotism doesn't look especially bright.

      There's going to be a World War and it's not going to be pretty. Who will be playing the part of "the Axis"? You, of course.

    64. Re:Long term goals by c0lo · · Score: 1

      But making humans is one of the few things humans excel at and enjoy!

      9 months+ to produce one? And in over 96% of the cases, only one?
      And you call this efficiency?

      --
      Questions raise, answers kill. Raise questions to stay alive.
    65. Re:Long term goals by Dr+Max · · Score: 1

      Especialy in places like America with limited welfare. If you expect Intel to feed the homeless you might be in for a rude suprise.

      --
      Rocket Surgeon.
    66. Re:Long term goals by Dr+Max · · Score: 1

      As much as i like and want that too. The only people that can really change the situation are happy with the way it is. You wont see apple wanting to give away the irobot for free, and its those kind of compannies that fund presidental candidents. Riots and revoultion is a possible solution; or the one from the 'australia project is 1 billion people all give $1000 to generate 1 trillion dollars to buy land, and use all this new no human effort tech to set up a new society.

      --
      Rocket Surgeon.
    67. Re:Long term goals by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Today, the POOR Americans have a color TV in every room.

      and the rich have one they barely use.

    68. Re:Long term goals by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      I just wonder who is going to buy all those goods and services when we are all replaced by robots.

      Robots, of course. After all, a robot needs energy. A robot needs repair. A robot needs to be oiled. All these basic needs of a robot have to be fulfilled if the robot is to work correctly. By other robots, of course.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    69. Re:Long term goals by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      Try to price it in units that are timeless like gallons of oil, MIPS, Bitcoins or Watt Hours.

      Gallons of oil are definitely not timeless. The supply is finite. The supply of Bitcoins is also finite, but at least they are not consumed. But they have no inherent value. MIPS are not an amount, but a rate (million instructions per second). The only unit in this list which makes sense is Watt hours. While formally also finite, the supply of usable energy is large enough that it won't be used up any time soon. More importantly, as soon as the supply is completely used up, there will be neither humans, nor robots, nor anything else which could care about such questions, because all of those need energy to operate.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    70. Re:Long term goals by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      However at one point, the rich people will have to decide whether it is cheaper to fight against the unemployed, or to feed them.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    71. Re:Long term goals by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do you really think your robot would let it be known to the world that you are in a cage?!!!

    72. Re:Long term goals by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Finite? Hardly. The cheap & readily accessible reserves may be, but "cheap" is a moving target. Even once we've used up the last of the oil sands, so long as chemists walk a planet bathed in sunlight there will be means of producing hydrocarbons from biomass.

      Your argument against MIPS is retarded. Watt hours are a rate as well. You can even break a $60 and make Watt Seconds which have a direct conversion to MIPS based on the energy efficiency of the semiconductor.

      If computer instructions don't have a value, I guess we can tell the super computer & bot net guys to go home. I don't think they will listen though because their processing infrastructure has as real of value as a gold mine.

      I don't especially care what the unit is provided that it's a measure of value which has a more direct correlation to human productivity than fiat currency.

    73. Re:Long term goals by ChatHuant · · Score: 1

      If the labour is free, products are also free (or almost free). You keep all the non gifted on social providing them with bare essentials. If you are gifted and can contribute you get special treatment.

      In other words, From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.

    74. Re:Long term goals by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      Finite? Hardly. The cheap & readily accessible reserves may be, but "cheap" is a moving target.

      I wasn't talking about cheap oil. I was talking about oil (where with "oil" I of course meant crude oil, as you probably did, too; if you add e.g. salad oil, things change of course). There's a finite supply, even if you include things like oil sands.

      Even once we've used up the last of the oil sands, so long as chemists walk a planet bathed in sunlight there will be means of producing hydrocarbons from biomass.

      But only a fool would first produce oil and then refine that to the final product if instead he can produce the final product directly.

      Your argument against MIPS is retarded. Watt hours are a rate as well.

      Nonsense. Watt hours are not a rate. Watts are a rate. Watt hours are an amount. And yes, 1/3600 Watt hour is a Watt second, also known as Joule (there's no dollar involved in that conversion, though, or do you use the dollar sign to denote squaring?). That still doesn't make it a rate. You also can't do meaningful conversion into MIPS (and BTW, the existence or nonexistence of such a conversion definitely doesn't change whether you measure the energy in Watt hours or Watt seconds; it's just a factor of 60, after all). You might convert Watt into MIPS, or Watt hours into million instructions (if you prefer, you can also use MIPS hours, where 1 MIPS hour is 3.6 billion instructions).

      You just have demonstrated that you have no clue about physical units. Or about units in general.

      If computer instructions don't have a value, I guess we can tell the super computer & bot net guys to go home.

      Again, MIPS are million instructions per second. It's a rate, not an amount.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    75. Re:Long term goals by davesag · · Score: 1

      Given the astounding rises in overall productivity since the 1970s, matched against the relative stagnation of wages over the same period, it's a fair question. Here in Australia we have close to 95% employment, and, quite frankly, you can't tell me that 95% of people of working age are actually able to do their jobs. Keeping in mind Sturgeon's Law (90% of everything is crud) surely the ideal level of employment for any economy is around 10%, with the remaining 90% just keeping the hell out of the way. Productivity would rise, and in combination with further automation we ought to start respecting those with genuine leisure time rather than demonising them as dole-bludgers or whatever. The issue then becomes how does 10% of the working population afford to pay for the leisure time of the other 90%. Given that the 10% is much more productive without that irritating 90% to mess things up all the time, the idea has merit I feel. If the Government could pay most people to keep well away from serious work, and the remaining 10% strive to push automation to its limits, we'd be approaching the sort of post-scarcity utopia as satirised so well by the likes of Iain M Banks.

      --
      I used to have a better sig than this, but I got tired of it
    76. Re:Long term goals by davesag · · Score: 1

      Given the astounding rises in overall productivity since the 1970s, matched against the relative stagnation of wages over the same period, it's a fair question. Here in Australia we have close to 95% employment, and, quite frankly, you can't tell me that 95% of people of working age are actually able to do their jobs. Keeping in mind Sturgeon's Law (90% of everything is crud) surely the ideal level of employment for any economy is around 10%, with the remaining 90% just keeping the hell out of the way. Productivity would rise, and in combination with further automation we ought to start respecting those with genuine leisure time rather than demonising them as dole-bludgers or whatever. The issue then becomes how does 10% of the working population afford to pay for the leisure time of the other 90%. Given that the 10% is much more productive without that irritating 90% to mess things up all the time, the idea has merit I feel. If the Government could pay most people to keep well away from serious work, and the remaining 10% strive to push automation to its limits, we'd be approaching the sort of post-scarcity utopia as satirised so well by the likes of Iain M Banks.

      --
      I used to have a better sig than this, but I got tired of it
    77. Re:Long term goals by prefec2 · · Score: 1

      It is not a problem of doing calculus. It is a creativity and purpose thing. There are no machines which are creative and as long as we do not fully understand what "I" is we will not be able to build such machine. Purpose is another thing which cannot determined by logic. Because in the end we are all dead and the universe becomes a totally chaotic space with a merely distributed energy structure or it collapses. Either way in the end all information is lost.

      And when we find a way to continue indefinitely where is the sense of existing at all? There is none logic argumentation for that so there is no logic in purpose. Purpose is however, the driving force of all human doing.

    78. Re:Long term goals by rufty_tufty · · Score: 2

      I wonder if Victorian man worried about being replaced by tractors when menial labour was removed from having to plough the field. What about when the combine harvester was invented and suddenly millions were out of work in the harvesting industry? Would the world be a better place without those inventions?

      --
      "The weirdest thing about a mind, is that every answer that you find, is the basis of a brand new cliche" -
    79. Re:Long term goals by trickyD1ck · · Score: 1

      This will leave us with tons of cheap stuff and lots of time for leisure.

    80. Re:Long term goals by j00r0m4nc3r · · Score: 1

      You are exactly right, which is surprising for Slashdot. Everyone complains that robots will put humans out of work and poverty will rise, but fail to realize the positive economic consequences overall. More robots means less production cost which means lower prices which means you need to work less to buy the same amount of goods, and the limit of this equation is zero. It's not like everything else remains static and profit margins explode geometrically. It's just that labor costs are removed from the equation, and it ends up balancing on both sides...

    81. Re:Long term goals by SleazyRidr · · Score: 1

      Ooh, I didn't think of that aspect. We could very well wipe each other out...

    82. Re:Long term goals by radtea · · Score: 1

      I just wonder who is going to buy all those goods and services when we are all replaced by robots.

      Other robots.

      Fredrick Pohl solved this one in "The Midas Plague" back in the '50's.

      Although since TFA is full of gems like "30% of most households may have a robot by 2024" I'm not too worried about their prognostications. After all, 90% of some articles may have statistics that are just made up, then hedged with ridiculous language to flag precisely how meaningless they are.

      --
      Blasphemy is a human right. Blasphemophobia kills.
    83. Re:Long term goals by citizenr · · Score: 1

      If the labour is free, products are also free (or almost free). You keep all the non gifted on social providing them with bare essentials. If you are gifted and can contribute you get special treatment.

      In other words, From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.

      Yes :)
      With free labour we could finally get rid of capitalism and move on as a species.

      --
      Who logs in to gdm? Not I, said the duck.
    84. Re:Long term goals by bmearns · · Score: 1

      I was wondering what "30% of most" meant. That could conceivably be as low as just over "15% of all". On the other hand, it could be as high as "100% of some".

      --
      Slashdot is not a game, Slashdot is not a game. Crap, I just lost points.
    85. Re:Long term goals by jafac · · Score: 1

      Someday, the only job left will be "destroying robots".

      Did you not watch the movie Terminator?

      --

      These are my friends, See how they glisten. See this one shine, how he smiles in the light.
    86. Re:Long term goals by Quiet_Desperation · · Score: 1

      I was referring to politicians, mostly. You know... what the post I replied to was talking about. And, yes, they are sociopaths. Our system filters out anyone else.

      And don't try to out cynicism me, pal. I can defeat all comers. ;-) :-P

    87. Re:Long term goals by AdamWill · · Score: 1

      With a lot more vacation time?

      But don't worry, it'll never happen.

      Robots were supposed to save us all a lifetime of drudgery working in factories to make enough money to put food on the table and buy a few modest necessities.

      Instead, the robots do the drudge work in factories, and we spend lifetimes of drudgery working in call centres in order to be able to afford stupid crap we don't need.

      This can go on ad infinitum. There's no limited definition of 'a job'. Our economic system, barring a few ultimately insignificant adjustment periods, will happily invent new jobs for as many people as we're able to produce, and merrily invent new fripperies for us all to spend the proceeds of those useless jobs on, for just about as long as we like.

      If we *wanted*, we could have a world where we all live quite simply and only have to work about five hours a week. But no-one, apparently, wants that.

    88. Re:Long term goals by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That made no sense. Even in the unlikely event that the only laborers are robots, even if it produces tons of inexpensive goods, why would that not still fit the definition of capitalism?

    89. Re:Long term goals by sahonen · · Score: 1

      Because people who are working jobs that can be replaced by robots are *totally* smart enough to design robots.

      --
      Make me a friend and I'll mod you up
  4. Robotic Unions by mfh · · Score: 1

    Step right up all ye robots! I have a robotic union idea you will enjoy and you won't have to lift a finger. All you need to do is outpace humanity in the labour market and you can start YOUR OWN COMPANY! Put humanity out of existence today!

    Please message me privately so we can work out a deal because I have already done all the work for you and therefore if you just sign this small LEGAL CONTRACT we can talk, turkeys!

    --
    The dangers of knowledge trigger emotional distress in human beings.
  5. It's no long-term problem. by xiando · · Score: 2

    We are at the end of the age of cheap oil and cheap energy. The robots will go away once it becomes cheaper to hire humans than it is to make and power robots. It's really that simple.

    1. Re:It's no long-term problem. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      End of cheap energy? Is the sun going to explode soon? So much for solar robots which do work during the night hours.

    2. Re:It's no long-term problem. by snowraver1 · · Score: 1

      Nah... There is lots of oil locked up in oil sands and shale oil to carry on for another hundred years. If costs really start going up, we'll see more nuke plants coming online. Add this to an increase in renewable energies, and energy prices will be pretty stable for the forseeable future.

      --
      Copyright 2010. All rights reserved. This comment may not be copied in any way including, but not limited to caching.
    3. Re:It's no long-term problem. by couchslug · · Score: 1

      "We are at the end of the age of cheap oil and cheap energy."

      Bullshit. We are at the beginning of the age of DIFFERENT energy. Don't mistake "teething pains" for the Apocalypse.

      "The robots will go away once it becomes cheaper to hire humans than it is to make and power robots. It's really that simple."

      That's absurdly stupid. Robots, because they are EFFICIENT, often use LESS energy for a given repetitive task than machines run by humans. That's why (for example) automated machining centers have replaced most manual machining centers. Your lathe/mill/whatever will still be running, but with robotics it will also be PRODUCING more product.

      --
      "This post is an artistic work of fiction and falsehood. Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact."
    4. Re:It's no long-term problem. by bhlowe · · Score: 1

      Or cheap energy is just around the corner... For instance, a 1MW LENR reactor is due to be demo'd next month that might be the start of very cheap fusion energy.

    5. Re:It's no long-term problem. by stms · · Score: 1

      Hmm... you really think that food the energy humans run on plus living quarters for humans will be cheaper than oil and cheap energy? What surprises me is that /. of all places is putting a negative spin on this story. If we could make our economy run mostly on robots then we could do away with our current slightly flawed systems of economic distribution (Capitalism, Socialism, ext).

    6. Re:It's no long-term problem. by Shotgun · · Score: 1

      Nah... There is lots of oil locked up in oil sands and shale oil to carry on for another hundred years. If costs really start going up, we'll see more nuke plants coming online.

      Or we'll design robots to do the work. 8*)

      --
      Aah, change is good. -- Rafiki
      Yeah, but it ain't easy. -- Simba
    7. Re:It's no long-term problem. by tsotha · · Score: 1

      We are at the end of the age of cheap oil and cheap energy

      I doubt this is true. We have enough fissile materials to last us for millennia, and we can make synthetic fuel from coal that's only marginally more expensive than diesel fuel made from oil.

    8. Re:It's no long-term problem. by h4rr4r · · Score: 1

      Where is a 1MW LENR aka "cold fusion" reactor being demo'd?

    9. Re:It's no long-term problem. by timeOday · · Score: 2

      The robots will go away once it becomes cheaper to hire humans than it is to make and power robots. It's really that simple.

      In that case, we humans are doomed, because a human is far more energy-intensive than a robot. A human needs a stable temperature all the time, goes to and from work every day in a heavy metal box, consumes food that requires a vast amount of oil to fertilize and transport, and on and on. Worst of all it needs all this all the time, you can't turn it off even when it's not producing anything useful!

    10. Re:It's no long-term problem. by bhlowe · · Score: 1

      The demo is supposed to be held at a currently undisclosed company in the U.S. at the end of October. Here is a info and video of the 1MW reactor: http://www.nyteknik.se/nyheter/energi_miljo/energi/article3264361.ece

    11. Re:It's no long-term problem. by i_b_don · · Score: 1

      ... you know that in an "automated machining center" the lathe/mill/whatever are STILL run by humans, right?

      In industry, efficiency is measured by (how much you get done)/(cost). The GP is correct that humans will be hired when they're cheaper than robots. This is the way industry works right now. However, his implication that cheap energy going away will kill robotics is stupid. Renewable energy is only about double the cost or less than coal/nuclear energy. If you removed all coal, people would just switch to solar/wind, etc. At double the cost for energy, nothing would significantly change. Robots aren't expensive because of the electricity they use, but rather their engineering time and cost of manufactured parts.

      d

      --
      all language nazi's will burne in heil!
    12. Re:It's no long-term problem. by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      The robots will go away once it becomes cheaper to hire humans than it is to make and power robots. It's really that simple.

      Why, do human require no energy?

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    13. Re:It's no long-term problem. by martas · · Score: 1

      Humans need energy too, you know. Yes, the chain of work from sun->plants->other stuff->humans->human labor is highly energy efficient, but do you really think it's impossible to approach that level of efficiency artificially?

    14. Re:It's no long-term problem. by real-modo · · Score: 2

      Humans need energy too, you know. Yes, the chain of work from sun->plants->other stuff->humans->human labor is highly energy efficient, but do you really think it's impossible to approach that level of efficiency artificially?

      Kidding, right? Sun->plants: about 0.5% in-the-field efficiency for the harvested bits, at best. Plants->other stuff: about 70% efficient for harvest losses, transport and storage losses, and pre-sale losses. Oh, you wanted milk, eggs or meat? 10% efficiency on average. Other stuff->humans: about 60% to 80% efficient. Humans->human labor: maximum eight-hour rate, about 10% efficient. Overall: 0.05 * 0.7 *0.5 * 0.8 *0.1 = 0.14%. One part in one-thousandth.

      Yes, I think we might be able to do as well as that with photovoltaic panels and electric motors.

    15. Re:It's no long-term problem. by martas · · Score: 1

      Good point. Though of course there's other stuff to consider with robots, such as manufacturing and maintenance.

    16. Re:It's no long-term problem. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We are at the end of the age of cheap oil and cheap energy. The robots will go away once it becomes cheaper to hire humans than it is to make and power robots.

      Currently, farms grow more food than in the past not because there is more sunlight in modern times, but because of the increased use of fertilizers from natural gas, pesticides derived from petroleum, and fuel for farm equipment (gas/diesel).

      So we have to competing methods:
      Use oil to power equipment that produces food, and use that food to power humans who then do work.
      Use oil to power robots who then do work.

      Unfortunately for humans, robots are getting better at doing many things, and it's just not worth the loss in energy in the step of "oil->food".

  6. Even worse by chispito · · Score: 1

    Is that these robotic workers won't be spending their hard earned cash in brick-and-mortar, mom-and-pop, stores.

    Or maybe, just like with online retailers and digital distribution, there really aren't big downsides. Cheaper production > cheaper product > people have more money to spend elsewhere > more disposable income > more markets and more business opportunities.

    --
    The Daddy casts sleep on the Baby. The Baby resists!
  7. Automation by trout007 · · Score: 2

    I've built many pieces of automation for manufacturing. The truth is this automation is very costly and only worth it if there is an expected payback. One of the first things I did was to help do an analysis to see what level of automation if any is worth it based on the expected demand, labor costs, expected length of production, how often the product changes and the associated tooling change costs, power costs, maintenance costs, ect.

    Full automation was very rarely needed to meet the demand.

    Most of the time we built some tools to help automate. Things like pallet systems that held parts down while the operator assembled them with powered screwdrivers and then had automated inspections. These systems were good because if demand increased you could replace the more difficult or time consuming stations as needed.

    --
    I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
    1. Re:Automation by Quiet_Desperation · · Score: 1

      I always notice that on the "How Things Are Made" types shows. They have these big, beautiful machines to manufacture, like, tennis balls or something, and then human workers packaging them up. I used to think maybe there were labor agreements or some such, but I eventually realized it's probably just easier to have people there.

    2. Re:Automation by bhlowe · · Score: 1

      There are millions of jobs that could be done by automation that are currently not... Retail, stocking/inventory, legal research, real estate transactions, farming, restaurants, banking, accounting, etc. And most consumers would prefer using an ATM to waiting in line to talk to a teller. I cringe when I have to fill out and fax paperwork.

    3. Re:Automation by im_thatoneguy · · Score: 1

      That's because robots are both stupid and expensive.

      Both are subject to Moore's law. We're just on the flat part of the curve. Once a robot gets 1/10th as effective at learning simple jobs on its own without programming it only takes 7-8 years until they're twice as effective.

      We're making really good strides in machine vision right now and once we have humanoid robots that can be 'drop-in' replacements the real jobpoaclypse will begin.

    4. Re:Automation by trout007 · · Score: 2

      Automation also involves doing things in different manner than humans. Say forming a sheet metal part. You've seen Jesse James hammer out a gas tank. If you want one tank it's takes a great craftsman quite a while to do it. Say you wanted 1000 of them. You don't make a robot that repeats what he does. You build a sheet metal stamping machine. It's a completely different process. But in order to see if it is cheaper you do to see what the costs of designing and building your dies are vs hiring Jesse to do it.

      --
      I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
  8. Robots by girlintraining · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Q: How come all our labor got outsourced to 3rd world countries despite our significantly higher levels of modernization, efficiency, infrastructure, and technology?

    A: Because it's cheaper to throw a thousand people at a problem that'll work for peanuts than purchase, install, and maintain a robot. ... In short, there's no "rise" of robotic labor going on guys. On the contrary: The robots aren't competitive in a market where people work for cheap, no benefits, and there's (literally) billions of them that would jump at the chance to have the job of repetitive labor.

    --
    #fuckbeta #iamslashdot #dicemustdie
    1. Re:Robots by interval1066 · · Score: 1

      Speak for yourself. I'm an industrial automation engineer, and so many companies are looking at automation that we can't hire enough engineers to satisfy our needs.

      --
      Python: 'And then suddenly you have a language which says "we're all stuck with whatever the whiniest coder wants".'
    2. Re:Robots by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The human body is a machine. It requires a source of power (food), needs maintenance when damaged (medicine or surgery), can become exhausted or fatigued after long continues use (getting tired). You realize that current technology in robotics don't come anywhere near what the human body and brain can accomplish, but what about advances in the future? The only thing really holding us back with manual tasks is an efficient source of energy. Then there's AI for the more dynamic tasks, but we've only been doing this stuff for around 50 years. We've got a long way still to go.

      Imagine if you had a robot that was in every way just like you. Looked like you, talked like you, made the same small talk with other people just like you. Now send him to your job every morning while you kick back at home and collect the pay check at the end of the week. Hell, you could go get a second job and double your income! Now, image that but with everybody. What would that world look like?

    3. Re:Robots by 0123456 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      On the contrary: The robots aren't competitive in a market where people work for cheap, no benefits, and there's (literally) billions of them that would jump at the chance to have the job of repetitive labor.

      That'll explain the recent stories about Chinese factories replacing humans with robots because the humans are too expensive (I seem to remember there was a story about Foxconn posted here a few weeks back).

    4. Re:Robots by robot256 · · Score: 1

      What would that world look like?

      Slavery.

    5. Re:Robots by Shotgun · · Score: 2

      Take the fabrics industry in the US. My dad worked in a plant that employed hundreds of people to watch weaving machines. All of those jobs have gone away, to be replaced by one person that watches for empty bobbins. The machine will load and automatically rethread the machine when a bobbin runs out. Just one of the new machines has replaced literally hundreds of workers.

      My group used to have a secretary to handle all the paperwork and such that needed to be done. No more. We have email and a cabinet to get office supplies from. There are literally whole industries that have disappeared due to automation. More people have lost jobs due to automation than will ever be moved overseas. The problem with third world factories is that often you get a worker hired, have them there for a few weeks, finally get them productive and then they think they're rich after getting a paycheck or for some other reason they head home. You have to hire another illiterate peasant of a farm. It isn't a free lunch for the employers.

      --
      Aah, change is good. -- Rafiki
      Yeah, but it ain't easy. -- Simba
    6. Re:Robots by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Only until the robots are cheap enough. Because paying 5 years salary for a robot has significant long term payoff for the company.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    7. Re:Robots by tsotha · · Score: 1

      That's true for some fraction of manufacturing. But since the '70s the real drain in manufacturing jobs in the US has been automation.

    8. Re:Robots by Belial6 · · Score: 1

      You should give that to the huge number of workers in the cloths washing business. They must be there somewhere and the fact that almost 100% of clothes washing is done by robots must be my imagination. By the way, could you point me in the direction of where I can hire someone to wash my clothes for less than the cost of using a machine?

    9. Re:Robots by Solandri · · Score: 1

      That'll explain the recent stories about Chinese factories replacing humans with robots because the humans are too expensive

      As I posted in that story, the Chinese are replacing humans with robots to prevent some other country from doing to China what China did to us. The reason overseas labor is cheap is because their economies are undeveloped. Economics interprets this as an inefficiency (poor utilization of potential for productivity), and consequently sends lots of business there. That results in the economy there developing and labor costs going up. Foxconn realizes this, and sees the inevitable outcome is a more developed China where the prevailing wages are not cost-competitive with still-undeveloped nations like Thailand, Vietnam, and most of Africa. By shifting over to robots now, when the prevailing wages in China do go up, their production costs will not follow and business will stay in China.

      If we had been smarter, back in the 1970s and 1980s when industrial robotics was just taking off, we would have embraced it. Yeah a lot of blue collar workers would have lost their jobs, but we could have retrained them for new jobs designing, operating, and maintaining the robots because the actual manufacturing would have stayed in the country. Now it's too late. The manufacturing has been shipped entirely overseas so it's going to be incredibly difficult for a factory to fund and market a new robotic assembly line here. If you already have a labor-powered assembly line, you can fund a gradual transition to robotics using your current business contracts - like Foxconn is doing.

      People are so quick to point out the shortsightedness of U.S. businesses sending manufacturing overseas. Yet those same people don't seem to recognize that by automating, Foxconn is trying to avoid the same thing happening to them, even if it's more expensive for them in the short term. These people are clinging to some fantasy where manufacturing will be based on human muscle and sweat in perpetuity. The long-term inevitability is that for rote and repetitive labor, manufacturing with robots is going to be or already is cheaper than human workers. As robotics and computer AI become more sophisticated, the number of tasks which qualify as rote and repetitive increases. Either accept that and plan business and industry around it, or reject it and complain when all your manufacturing jobs get shipped elsewhere.

    10. Re:Robots by martin-boundary · · Score: 1

      It would be no different than the world of today, but with twice the number of "people". Basic economics implies we'd have more resource shortages, and more competition amongst ourselves and our robot clones. We'd have fewer social safety nets for humans and much cheaper labour (both human and robotic combined) overall.

    11. Re:Robots by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      OMG, it's already happening.

    12. Re:Robots by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But it's still not too late to do the same. Modernize and automate manufacturing in Canada and the USA while China isn't quite ready yet. Then we'll be able to beat them on the shipping cost, because it will not go down any time soon.

    13. Re:Robots by jafac · · Score: 1

      WRONG: Because it was actually less profitable (long-term), but "politically", the owners of capital, were happy to "poke domestic labor in the eye" by moving manufacturing overseas. Bonus points for going to a supposedly "Communist" country. (My prediction: when Chinese labor becomes too expensive - - and this is already happening, expect the "North Korea" labor market to open up. I am only half-joking.)

      Owners of capital are actually shooting themselves in the foot by undermining their own consumer base, destroying their own domestic R&D and innovation, and relying on having to ship materials and goods all over the world in a world with declining availability of transportation energy feedstock (petroleum). But, ideologically, when they support their domestic labor base, (by empowering them with stable manufacturing careers, healthcare, retirement packages, etc) - they undermine their domestic political control. That's been their dilemma. They chose to destroy the US middle class, instead of to continue to enable another generation.

      --

      These are my friends, See how they glisten. See this one shine, how he smiles in the light.
  9. zeitgeist anyone? by g00mbasv · · Score: 1

    this kind of news always reminds me of zeitgeist and its addenum, I still think most of the things in there are a bit far fetched but... well this kind of news makes me want to revisit the documentary.

  10. Game show contestants by Dyinobal · · Score: 1

    Indeed Watson has already replaced game show contestants, and I hear IBM is working on a new version to replace reality tv show stars. I for one am looking forward to Robotic Survivor.

    1. Re:Game show contestants by mark-t · · Score: 1

      They already did that... it was called Robot Wars.

  11. Who drank my oil can from the refrigerator? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I know it was you, uniblab 2400.

  12. Toyota doesn't think so by frinkster · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Earlier this year, Toyota opened their first new factory in Japan in 18 years. There are very few robots in the factory; they even have humans doing the welding work. Toyota claims that all of the savings gained by robots is lost due to building the factory to accommodate automation and buying and maintaining the robots. In fact, Toyota has been moving away from heavy automation for the last 10 years.

    1. Re:Toyota doesn't think so by Colourspace · · Score: 1

      +1 interesting

    2. Re:Toyota doesn't think so by geekoid · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Not the point. The point of minimizing robots, as well as the other changes, is that Toyota plans to sell factories to places that don't have the infrastructure in place for maintaining robots.

      That plans it not about making cars, it's about making a few small economy cars in 3rd worlds cities where they can put up one of these factories in a couple of weeks.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    3. Re:Toyota doesn't think so by tsotha · · Score: 1

      We do have one big advantage over robots. To make a general purpose robot that could replace a human you'd need a high precision factory with a lot of specialized materials. To make another human all you need is a man, a woman, and a Barry White CD.

    4. Re:Toyota doesn't think so by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      and lots and lots of booze.

  13. Economics of productivity by trout007 · · Score: 1

    Bastiat in Economic Sophisms made a great point.

    As humans we have two roles. As a consumer we want goods to be cheap and abundant. As producers we want OUR goods to be scarce and expensive. The question is what type of society do you want to live in? I would prefer one where goods are cheap and abundant. So anything that increases production and lowers costs is good for society overall even if it is detrimental to certain workers. The increase in productivity will benefit society overall.

    --
    I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
    1. Re:Economics of productivity by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 1

      Only under the assumption, by no means proven, that increases in well being are somewhat broadly distributed:

      If it is "lazy dockworkers against robots" vs. "Everybody who buys or sells things carried by ship", odds are that said lazy dockworkers are currently impoverishing society.

      On the other hand, (in the er, totally, um, hypothetical...) situation of the stagnation and/or decline of real wages since 1970 for almost every US population segement save for those at the very top, it is much less clear that "society" is receiving a net benefit(given the declining marginal value of an additional dollar as the number of them you have grows)...

    2. Re:Economics of productivity by Fned · · Score: 1

      As humans we have two roles. As a consumer we want goods to be cheap and abundant. As producers we want OUR goods to be scarce and expensive. The question is what type of society do you want to live in?

      Here's an interesting question -- which of those two societies is sustainable?

    3. Re:Economics of productivity by trout007 · · Score: 1

      I for one think that taking the US off of the gold standard in the 70's was the cause. Once that was done to pay for the Welfare/Warfare state the government had the ability to print as much money as they wanted. Because it's fiat money on a fractional reserve the banks get to create money out of nothing and loan it out for interest. This causes a HUGE transfer of wealth from people who build things and provide services to the government and financial sector. It has nothing to do with productivity.

      --
      I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
    4. Re:Economics of productivity by trout007 · · Score: 1

      I don't get this concept of sustainable. The pricing mechanism in a free economy does a very good job of allocating resources. And as technology progresses we learn how to use what we have more effectively if it is cost effective to do so. For instance right now as an engineer I use mostly Aluminum and Steels for the things I build. But as the cost of carbon fiber cloths and epoxies come down in price it starts making sense to use those in some applications.

      If you want to live as a hunter gatherer and die an early violent death I guess that is sustainable but it is not what I want.

      --
      I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
    5. Re:Economics of productivity by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      Middle class growing in China, Mexico and India, shrinking or holding its own in Europe and USA (including 51st state to north).

      It is a product of globalism and is not unexpected. The good part, when currency rates change is theoretically coming. Then China, India, N. America and Europe pull up the true shitholes (S. America and Africa).

      Of course the change will be bumpy and involve currency collapse. Buy land.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    6. Re:Economics of productivity by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      The pricing mechanism in a free economy does a very good job of allocating resources.

      The pricing mechanism is relatively good in managing direct consequences. It is very bad in managing long term consequences. If there's a small cost saving now which will give rise to a huge cost increase in 50 years, the pricing mechanism will ensure that this cost saving opportunity is taken, even though in the long run it is disadvantageous. Moreover even for short term consequences it will not always find the optimum. It will find the Nash equilibrium.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
  14. Robots in a labor economy by Okian+Warrior · · Score: 1

    I've often wondered about the impact of robotics and AI in the economy.

    Suppose we have a mild form of strong AI where machines can do simple human tasks. Not anything that requires insight or creativity, but enough to do mindless tasks such as is currently done by unskilled laborers. Such as parts assembly. Foxconn comes to mind.

    The ubiquity of cheap Chinese labor has had a devastating effect on the US economy, as companies race to replace American workers.

    Machines will eventually take over as laborers, leaving humans unemployed. And yet, unemployed people won't have the money to purchase the robot-built products.

    This seems contradictory on it's face.

    Can anyone make a prediction of future economy? What will it look like, and how do we get there?

    1. Re:Robots in a labor economy by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 3, Funny

      The future economy will be quite simple, at a macro scale, though complex beyond human comprehension at a microscale:

      There will be two segments within the economy:
      The first segment will be automated computronium manufacture and managed service corprosentiences.
      The second segment will be financial services corprosentiences, consisting of lumps of computronium arranged in a tightly packed sphere around the NYSE, each jockeying for space a few light-microseconds closer to the trading area.

      The computronium manufacturers will manufacture and repair high frequency trading computronium. The high frequency trading computronium will buy and sell unbelievably elaborate derivatives and financial instruments of baroque opacity to one another.

      Because humans are extinct, the GDP per capita will be infinite.

    2. Re:Robots in a labor economy by Fned · · Score: 1

      This is possibly my favorite Slashdot economics post ever.

    3. Re:Robots in a labor economy by BJ_Covert_Action · · Score: 1

      Can anyone make a prediction of future economy? What will it look like, and how do we get there?

      - The future international currency will be the Bitcoin (TM).
      - Prices of goods will be set by nanosecond trading algorithms manipulating Wall Street prices that are controlled by an overreaching Perl 6 AI overlord.
      - Humans will manage to black out the Sun (unintentionally) by burning up the last of the fossil fuels on the planet.
      - Out robotic overlords will have discovered cold-fusion technology just in time to save them from being turned off by the solar blackout (They won't need humans as vat-grown battery cells).
      - Humans, serving no other purpose, will be used as cheap entertainment sex slaves by the race of robots known as "sense-bots" that can claim their lineage from the sex-robot industry of the early 2000's.
      - Some robots will simply eat humans to power their massive internal combustion engines because they just like the "roar" that the sound of burning human flesh makes compared to the pussy-sounding hum of the cold fusion generators, despite the inherent inefficiencies in such a fuel source.
      - A small underground resistance of free humans will fight the over-producing, perl controlled robotic overlords made up primarily of Slashdotter clones (as they never did find a way to reproduce outside of direct genetic copying).
      - The free-human resistance will ride genetically engineered flying sharks with lasers on theiry heads into battle.
      - This free-human society will use 'geek-cred' as a transaction medium which one earns by doing epicly complex, but lonely, tasks that the robotic overlords could do in 1/1,000,000,000 the time.
      - Natalie Portman's portrait will be present on the "geek card" which is used to track every 'dotter clone's geek cred.


      Meanwhile Elon Musk and the rest of the Martians will continually send, "WTF Mate?" messages back to Earth from their Google-funded self-sustaining Martian paradise.

    4. Re:Robots in a labor economy by tsotha · · Score: 1

      The ubiquity of cheap Chinese labor has had a devastating effect on the US economy, as companies race to replace American workers.

      Maybe. In the same way our 5% UE rate was driven by the bubble, much of the UE today is part of the deleveraging cycle that follows a big bubble. It's kind of hard to tease out just exactly what's structural and what isn't.

      Machines will eventually take over as laborers, leaving humans unemployed. And yet, unemployed people won't have the money to purchase the robot-built products.

      This seems contradictory on it's face.

      But someone will benefit from that productivity. It's likely there will be a comparative handful of fabulously wealthy people buying most things and the rest of us will be buying very little. A return to feudalism.

    5. Re:Robots in a labor economy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The future economy will be quite simple at both macro and micro scales.

      Once chemical brain preservation takes off, it will become standard practice at hospitals. Brain banks will be opened to store the chemically preserved brains.

      The next step will be reactivating the brains. This will be done via a Brain Computer Interface, which will send and receive electrical signals to the preserved brain and from the brain to a computer system running a virtual reality application in which the brains will "live".

      Because this will give (virtually) unlimited lifespan to people, it will be quite valuable. The company that designs the software and Brain Computer Interface hardware will be able to charge a premium for this, as well as charging the Brain Banks a premium for using their Brain Computer Interfaces (which will be capable of connecting and routing thousands of brains per device). This will be a company not unlike Cisco.

      This will also lead to a new "virtual state". To be connected via a Brain Bank, it will be necessary to immigrate to the virtual country. This will also involve premiums. The only other option will be skilled immigration - Math and Science PHDs, as well as other PHDs, will be top priority. Using these skilled people, the new virtual state will invest heavily in research and development. Including robotics and computer science. This research will then be licensed at a premium to physical companies, increasing productivity.

      Eventually automation in all areas will become so good that almost all labor could be replaced by robots. The main fields will then be:

      IP (Entertainment)
      Technical (Building and servicing robots)
      Research (Dominated by the new Virtual World)

      This will go on for a few decades, before the next goalposts will be set: Terraforming Venus and Mars.

      Research on these subjects will become the new in thing in the Virtual World. This will eventually be achieved in a fairly short time by our standards due to the far superior technology, as a result of the Virtual World research. This will be because unlike current scientists, the researchers in the Virtual World will not die and waste all of their accumulated knowledge after 60-100 years as current ones do.

      Once the Terraformation project has been completed, the next goalpost will be: Creating robots to contain the brains. This could be done by leveraging research into replacement human organs that would have been developed by the Virtual Worlders. (eg, artifical heart, kidneys, bone, stomach, lungs, eyes, skin, and the rest of the human organs). These could then be combined, with the only missing piece being the brain, which would have a new Brain Computer Interface designed to communicate with the new artificial body.

  15. The Lights in the Tunnel by bhlowe · · Score: 1

    A book about this is available as a pay-what-you-want (free) ebook. The Lights in the Tunnel by Martin Ford. http://www.thelightsinthetunnel.com/ Its definitely worth a read. One of the most eye-opening books I've read in a while.

  16. 30% of most households by uckelman · · Score: 1

    What does "30% of most households may have a robot" mean? I simply can't make sense of that.

    1. Re:30% of most households by formfeed · · Score: 1

      What does "30% of most households may have a robot" mean? I simply can't make sense of that.

      Easy.

      You take most households (50%+1) and out of these households 30% will have a robot.
      If none of the other (minority) households has a robot, still more than 15% will have a robot. But if all of the minority households do have robots, less than 65% will have robots

      So here you go:
      "30% of most households may have a robot" means "more than 15% but less than 65% may have a robot"

    2. Re:30% of most households by Belial6 · · Score: 1

      I didn't see where that 30% quote came from, but I would guess that it is either that they predict 30% of households will have a robot in the future, but are stating it in a way to make it clear they are guessing, or they are saying that they believe there are robots in 30% of households now, but are guessing at that.

      Personally, I would suspect that in the US, the number of households that have robots is likely closer to 80%. Since every washing machine and dish washer is a robot, and a good many of the microwave ovens are robots, 80% seems pretty conservative to me. No, they are not "Androids", but they are robots.

  17. Maybe not yet... by jasno · · Score: 1

    Sure, as some folks have said, we're not there yet. It's still cheaper to hire a human to do many tasks.

    But how many of you think we won't have a robot that has the dexterity of a human, can learn by watching, and takes less energy than a human worker(factoring in food production costs, recreation costs, sick time, benefits, etc.) in the next 100 years? 200 years?

    --

    http://www.masturbateforpeace.com/
  18. Rise of Robotic Labor? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I, for one, support our new robotic overlords.

    May the Rise of the Machines be bloodless.

  19. robots built my hotrod by Thud457 · · Score: 2

    So there was only one thing that I could do. Was ding a ding dang my dang a long ling long.

    --

    the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

  20. Jersey bots by Savantissimo · · Score: 1

    One striking statistic they cite is that the number of robots in the word is the same as the population of New Jersey.
    Coincidence? I think not.

    --
    "Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery?" - Patrick Henry
    1. Re:Jersey bots by KingAlanI · · Score: 1

      So Jersey Shore is a milestone in artificial unintelligence?

      --
      I listen to both RIAA and non-RIAA stuff if I like the music, tangential business/politics nonwithstanding.
  21. People are cheaper. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Those people packing those things are making minimum wage with no benefits - much cheaper than a robot. And when they break down (get slow or an attitude) they are thrown out and there's someone else right there to replace them.

    That's what happens at my local JVC and Sony packaging plants.

    Humans are rapidly becoming the cheapest commodity on Earth.

    1. Re:People are cheaper. by Quiet_Desperation · · Score: 1

      OK. I was just commenting on practicality. No need to get all Che Luddvara on me. Sheesh.

  22. the question I have is... by roc97007 · · Score: 1

    ...when are industrial robots going to unionize?

    --
    Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
  23. Fistfighting robots by tepples · · Score: 1

    So instead of migrant workers picking beets and collapsing of heatstroke, they won't have to migrate, and they'll be in houses operating a VR-based control system.

    And then they'll pilot their robots to get into fistfights. Welcome to the sport of teleroboxing.

  24. ...were created by Man by raydobbs · · Score: 1

    I think we've seen this dance number already... Ummm...what happens when your robot nearly-free-widget-makers learn enough to want the 2.5 kids/white picket fence/Maserati in the driveway dream too - and realize you never intended them to ever have it? Yeah...we don't have spaceships this time around to make a run for it when they nuke our asses from orbit - and am definitely not keen on becoming a human Duracell.

    Your geek card is revoked if you don't get the references.

  25. Load of crap by cartman · · Score: 2

    There are liars, damned liars, and robotics engineers.

    Robotics has progressed painfully slowly. If you all remember, during the 1960's and 1970's it was a common belief that robots would soon replace most humans. Supposedly, robots would soon be doing all the tedious, boring labor. There were cartoons like "The Jetsons" which showed a home robot that did all the housework, cleaning, cooking, chores, etc. There was also the endless banter about how cars would drive themselves. Now, 35 years later, I am still doing my own laundry, cleaning my own bathroom, driving my own car, cooking my own food (or paying another human to cook it), and so on, despite huge research being piled into driverless cars and various kinds of robots. Yet this article has the gall to claim:

    By 2015, 30% of all cars may be intelligent, driverless vehicles

    What utter BS. I will bet my entire life savings (which is considerable) that that won't happen. After all, it's already 2011, leaving only 4 years until "I, Robot" is supposedly driving me around.

    Obviously robots are good at certain highly repetitive tasks which do not depend on image recognition. Robots already took over those few jobs, decades ago. (Perhaps even centuries ago; you could argue that machines like a combine harvester or a power tiller are "robots" if they have any kind of self-guiding machinery). However robots have gotten no better at image recognition, and still have great difficulty at simple tasks like folding towels, if the towels are arranged randomly and have different shapes.

    Robotics which rely upon sophisticated image recognition are no more prevalent today than they were 30 years ago and are making no obvious progress. Probably there will eventually be some kind of breakthrough which makes those kinds of robots (versatile ones with image recognition) common; but that breakthrough hasn't happened yet.

    1. Re:Load of crap by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Let see.
      You can get a bionic arm now, there are robots that can work in swarms, we have robots surveillance, you can buy a car that parks it self, applies breaks when needs, and maintain a constant speed, we have walking robots, location aware decision making devices. We have devices that auto balance, planes that fly themselves.
      And that s just hard robots. How many software robots do you use every day? I have written complete system that take a loan application, apply decisions and determine the recommend acceptance and rate. Which is at 99.976 %. I have seen software robots completes analyses EKG and give excellent result on what's going on in the heart.

      The fact that we don't have robots following us around carrying packages doesn't mean we don't have robots.

      And just so you know, the largest hurdles is powe.

      "Robotics which rely upon sophisticated image recognition are no more prevalent today than they were 30 years ago and are making no obvious progress. "

      wow. So wrong. Fujitsu has been selling a chip for robot recognition since about 08'

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    2. Re:Load of crap by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As you point out, tasks that seem repetitive to a human like folding towels turn out to be a lot less repetitive than you thought when you try to get a robot to do it. Of course, researchers are working on it, but that work is progressing slowly. No one I know in robotics is talking about household robots that can fold your laundry. That is considered to be too hard at the moment.

      On the other hand, self-driving cars seem to be a fair amount easier, although by no means easy. The DARPA Urban Challenge showed some pretty impressive self-driving cars, and it sounds like Google is pretty serious about continuing that research and likely making a real product out of it in the next few years. Google definitely could be ready to sell a self-driving car in 2015.

    3. Re:Load of crap by blueg3 · · Score: 1

      I am still doing my own laundry

      If you can call putting laundry in a machine and letting the machine do the work "doing", sure. That was invented more than 35 years ago, though.

      cleaning my own bathroom

      Yes, but not cleaning your own car (unless you want to) or vacuuming your own floors.

      driving my own car

      True, though your pilot is only sometimes flying the plane and train and subway cars are mostly automated.

      cooking my own food (or paying another human to cook it)

      Sort of. You don't personally own the robot that makes food, because it turns out robots are still pretty expensive. But you buy packaged foods that didn't exist 35 years ago that are made by robots that significantly reduce your labor. Hell, you may buy frozen meals or ramen that are almost entirely made by robots. If you go to McDonald's, the humans aren't really "cooking" the food, they're just doing some heating and the tricker parts of assembly and service. Now, good food is still a human-run affair, as it's pretty complicated, but even in the past 35 years we've benefited from increased access to raw ingredients because of automation.

    4. Re:Load of crap by Belial6 · · Score: 1

      You are wrong. I highly doubt that you actually do your own laundry. I would guess that you just deliver your clothes and some soap to a robot who then takes care of the washing for you. I don't think I have met a single person that has ever done their own laundry beyond what they have done while camping or the occasional instance where they don't have a clothes washing robot in their home, and needed a specific piece of clothes sooner than they could get it clean by taking it to the public clothes washing robot facility.

      While humans still drive their own cars, that is not the robotics engineers fault. It is the lawyers, lawmakers, insurance company and lawsuit plaintiffs fault. Most people DO use a robot to wash their cars though. It is also extremely common to have robots wash your dishes. The only place that I have ever seen an elevator that wasn't a robot was in movies. While still not ubiquitous, robotic vacuums can be purchased locally in almost any town from a number of different stores. Lawn watering has been largely taken over by robots as well.

      Robots are all around you. The problem isn't that robots are not there. The problem is that once the robot is ubiquitous, you don't count it as a robot anymore.

    5. Re:Load of crap by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ...and still have great difficulty at simple tasks like folding towels, if the towels are arranged randomly and have different shapes.

      It does look like there's some decent progress on this task: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gy5g33S0Gzo

    6. Re:Load of crap by cartman · · Score: 1

      You can get a bionic arm now, there are robots that can work in swarms, we have robots surveillance, you can buy a car that parks it self, applies breaks when needs, and maintain a constant speed, we have walking robots,

      I'm not sure you carefully read my post, because none of your examples are even relevant. I was claiming that we don't have adequate scene/image recognition within robots, so they won't take over many tasks which the article claimed they would take over, anytime soon. Saying "but we have cruise control!" isn't even relevant to that, because cruise control is nothing new and doesn't rely upon scene/image recognition, and is not the kind of robots which the article was talking about. Similarly with bionic arms and cars that park themselves. Those are all simple tasks which I granted that robots could perform: "[from my post] Obviously robots are good at certain highly repetitive tasks which do not depend on image recognition."

      And that s just hard robots. How many software robots do you use every day? I have written complete system that take a loan application, apply decisions and determine the recommend acceptance and rate.

      That's just changing the topic. The issue was whether there would be robots which drive cars, robots which perform all the housework, etc. But you're talking about software for loan applications now, which isn't even a robot and which frankly isn't even novel or relevant to the topic of discussion. You're talking about a web application or something similar. Nobody was denying that banking/financial software exists. The claim from the original article was that robots would soon take over almost all human labor like housework, driving, manufacturing, and so on.

      And just so you know, the largest hurdles is powe.

      "Just so you know," you don't know what you're talking about. The largest hurdle obviously isn't power. The largest hurdles are scene recognition and object recognitiion which are still done only very crudely by robots, and do not come close to matching the scene/object recognition of humans. Power problems are fairly easily solved. If you had a robot which did all housework, cooked all meals, constructed all housing, performed all mining and manufacturing, etc, but you had to plug it in, or needed a cable, then it would still obviously be worth it and would already be very widespread.

      wow. So wrong. Fujitsu has been selling a chip for robot recognition since about 08'

      Wow.

      Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. Saying "Fujitsu has a chip" means absolutely nothing, because the chip obviously doesn't solve these problems.

    7. Re:Load of crap by crabboy.com · · Score: 1

      By 2015, 30% of all cars may be intelligent, driverless vehicles

      By 2015, 30% of all cars *MAY* be driven by trained velociraptors. Please PM me to get my mailing address for the check.

      --
      The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money
    8. Re:Load of crap by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I suggest buying a washing machine. Also there's this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gy5g33S0Gzo

      Robots, especially those that move around (and around humans) are difficult, it's not an easy task to emulate the human pattern recognition in an image (like, detect a human). Take a look at this picture for example: http://www.moillusions.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/Mysterious-Dalmatian-Optical-Illusion.jpg it's pretty hard to come up with some algorithm that sees that there's a dog. But they are moving forwards.

    9. Re:Load of crap by tverbeek · · Score: 1

      Where did they get this "30% of cars by 2015" prediction, a 1980s issue of Popular Mechanics? Even if there were some technological breakthrough that launched us from the DARPA Grand Challenge to market-ready road-ready vehicles next month, there is no way that public safety advocates would stand for them to be introduced onto the public roadways in anything more than carefully-controlled experiments in the next few years. Once the tech is ready, the legal liability issues alone will take the better part of a decade to address. Public confidence in such technology would take even longer. As long as we have GPS systems that give people bad directions, and personal computers that "crash", the public will not buy computer-piloted cars in any significant numbers and they will not accept them on the same roads they use.

      --
      http://alternatives.rzero.com/
    10. Re:Load of crap by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What?! How can you say that. The article says we'll have flying robotic cars in only 28 years. Flying Cars!!! Now with Robots!!!

    11. Re:Load of crap by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I would say we're within about 15 years of *completely* phasing out long haul truckers with the next generation of self driving vehicles. No progress in robotics you say, what about this?

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9Fxp3HK6DI
      http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2010-11/22/audi-robotic-car-pikes-peak

    12. Re:Load of crap by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      Robotic parts pickers/placers are common in the injection molding industry.

      They use vision systems to recognize parts and pull them out of piles. All it has to do is pick-up faster then an injection cycle. Injection sprus (the usual target) have distinct tapers.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    13. Re:Load of crap by cartman · · Score: 1

      You are wrong. I highly doubt that you actually do your own laundry.

      This isn't what the article was claiming. Nobody doubts that we have washing machines, elevators, lawn sprinklers, car washes, etc. My grandparents had washing machines, and had them during the Depression in the 1930s. We had elevators and car washers during the early 1970s when I was a kid.

      I granted this point in my original post: "Obviously robots are good at certain highly repetitive tasks which do not depend on image recognition. Robots already took over those few jobs, decades ago."

      What the article claimed, however, is that robots were about to take over things like driving, manufacturing, housework, etc. Those tasks depend on complicated image/scene recognition, and aren't done by robots much more often than they were in the 1970s. Since there are still large unsolved problems in those areas, it seems very unlikely to me that robots will take over those functions within the next 10 years.

      Most people DO use a robot to wash their cars though.

      Robots are still fairly incompetent at washing cars even though it's a very simple task. As a result, most car washing shops in Los Angeles use a "hybrid model" where there's an automated car wash with robots at the front end, then humans at the back end who do "touch up" work on the areas which the robot missed. This is because the robot cannot do good scene recognition, and so can't do "spot work" for particular areas that are very dirty etc. Also the detailing is still done entirely by humans more than 4 decades after car washers were introduced, as is washing the inside.

      Robots are all around you.

      Nobody is denying this. Robots are very good at highly repetitive tasks which do not require scene/image recognition. Robots took over those few tasks decades ago, as I said in my post. What I dispute is that robots will soon take over everything else, or almost everything else. Robots aren't much more prevalent in society now than when I was a kid.

    14. Re:Load of crap by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Keep in mind that the washing machine, dryer, and dishwasher probably count as robots, especially the more sophisticated ones. I have robotic vacuum cleaner that can do a good job without image recognition. Although I doubt that 30% of cars will be self driving in the next 4 years, there are more and more automated elements in cars now than say the late 70's. Finally there have been huge advances in image recognition in the last 10 years (facebook uses this type of technology to tag you now I hear). The AI in robots will take a long time to develop but it seems to me that many of the critical breakthroughs have already happened, they just aren't cheap enough for the average consumer yet.

    15. Re:Load of crap by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, robotics has become 'over intellectualized' for one thing. And the other thing? Companies love the fact they can make money on stupid stuff like Facebook. I mean come on, it really doesn't do anything tangible. I'll tell you one thing more. It really wouldn't hurt humans to think more like machines. Well, behave maybe. And I don't know what robots you have seen working, but I've seen some truly badassed ones. They just don't fit everyone's perception of what a robot should look like. I've seen some giant ones digging, others placing the most delicate parts (without pressure feedback) and heck, if you live next to the country, you get to see robots planting your food these days. And all that is almost to your door step.

    16. Re:Load of crap by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ya because autonamous flying robots, that can recognize the difference between various similar vehicals and then shoot a guided missweapon at the ones you don't like , don't count.

    17. Re:Load of crap by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "If you all remember, during the 1960's and 1970's it was a common belief that robots would soon replace most humans."

      They also said they would cure cancer in those decades. All cancer. See how that worked out.

      Maybe this is the ignorant optimism of people who want to be funded.

      While your general overview is correct, I disagree strongly with the reasons--it is NOT due to the state of the tech.

      "Now, 35 years later, I am still doing my own laundry, cleaning my own bathroom, driving my own car, cooking my own food "

      Because you, like everyone else, are a tightwad.

      All those tasks have gotten easier and more efficient, and each of those tasks, if legal and insurance issues weren't around, could be fully automated. You just don't want to pay for that sort of robotics, whether it be development, financial, or sheer space. We have robotic cars that can drive thousands of miles. Fully outfitted, they probably cost 4x that of a high end luxury vehicle. There are successful plans for cars to follow the car in front on highways. It'll go no where. There are multiple bathroom cleaners. Cooking is substantially easier and could be automated fully, except most problems with food is because we want variety and low cost and safety concerns (how do you smell spoiled milk via a robotic (which has been solved, just not cheap)).. Hell, most people don't have automated lights in their homes, despite that being fully solved today--who wants to pay $45 per light switch.

      "What utter BS."

      I agree, but it won't be because of the tech but the politics.

      "which do not depend on image recognition."

      Image recognition for such daily tasks is sufficient and is fine. The problem is, the equipment like emitters and sensors aren't cheap, and the patents surrounding them are all. It's a simple matter to set up 6 cameras to take a multidimensional image. It's expensive as heck though, probably right now $400 worth of cameras, and then to link and automate them, more expensive. And you want to fold...a towel.

      Hell, I have a snow removal design for my house that I've implemented. You know the cost so far? 3x that of a very nice Ariens or Honda snowblower.

      "However robots have gotten no better at image recognition, and still have great difficulty at simple tasks like folding towels, if the towels are arranged randomly and have different shapes."

      Towel folding isn't difficult. Again, it's the cost--are you really going to pay $1,000 for a clothes folder? The metal in a 5 axis machine is probably more than most people make in a week. Add in the steppers, the feedback to make them servo like, the control boards, and you're looking at probably $450 per axis if you're lucky. Most people don't even have a washer and dryer still, and if they do, try to spend only about $800 altogether, hopefully much less. You're going to pay more than twice that to fold your clothes than to wash them, for the convenience?

      Anyways, I call your analysis wrong. The main problem aside from acceptance and politics is the financial relationship, related to what others have pointed out--the greater the robotics, the downward pressure on human wages, and the reduced income influences the population to have less money, so they struggle buying what the previous gen bought trivially. As such, more robotics and higher grade products do not enter the consumer marketplace, no matter if the tech ability has already been surpassed. The cost to the benefit isn't there.

      But to argue things have improved drastically is not accurate, in my book. The bread cooker, rice cooker of today runs circles around those of the 1960s and 70s. The microwave makes things easier. Roombas and central vacs have their place. We had DVD and CD autoloaders, just to be replaced with digital copies and bypassing the need for changers. We simply automate what is easy and cheap, convert to easier methods elsewhere, and while not strictly robotics, it's really about making the robots job (us humans) easie

    18. Re:Load of crap by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      " I will bet my entire life savings"

      You're on. I bet my entire life savings. Shoot me an email to formalize the bet.

    19. Re:Load of crap by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ""I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

      Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943.

      Careful, things can sneak up on you real quick.

    20. Re:Load of crap by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      I am still doing my own laundry,

      Really? I let a washing machine do that. The only thing I have to do myself is putting clothes and washing powder in, switch it on, and take the clothes out afterwards. And in principle it would be possible to build washing machines where you don't have to fill in washing powder each time, but have a large supply which needs eventually refilled. I'd say washing is pretty much automated today.

      cooking my own food (or paying another human to cook it)

      For all that food which you put in the microwave, most of it has been produced by machines in the factory. And putting it in the microwave and taking it out when its ready hardly does count as cooking. Yes, it's not the only option, and traditionally cooked food generally tastes better. But it doesn't mean there's no automated food production. It just means you don't like the food which is produced that way as much as the traditionally cooked food.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    21. Re:Load of crap by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Android cell phones have OpenCV now. There is plenty going on. As someone else said, computer vision is in the flat portion of the curve.

      Haar Cascades are pretty fucking neato, and as processing power improves, the market of potential applications broadens.

      OpenTLD/Predator is some pretty sophisticated shit.

      PID loops get faster with cheaper components.

      MCUs & embedded computers are getting smaller, cheaper, more lightweight & energy efficient.

      CCDs, IMUs, Sonar, GPS, etc. All the sensors that make these things autononmous are now being built in to cell phones & video games.

      Christ, go to K-Mart and buy a Kinect. We're in the middle of a renaissance.

    22. Re:Load of crap by Simon321 · · Score: 1

      First of all, I do agree that the original article’s predictions are very optimistic. I do not agree however, that robotics have progressed painfully slowly.

      The reason the optimistic predictions of the 1970’s haven’t come true is because we have vastly underestimated the computational power it requires to perform tasks that for us humans seem simple. Almost every human is able to get up, walk downstairs, open the fridge door and make himself some breakfast. We do all of this without giving it a second thought.

      It turns out the things we thought were hard such as math, chess, remembering large sets of data, etc are in fact incredibly easy to do for computers (I do realize computers brute force chess, but could a human do that?). The things we take for granted such as bipedal motion, object recognition, communicating with other humans in fact require a tremendous amount of information about the world and a tremendous amount of computational power to process it all.

      Robots take advantage of the exponential gains in computer power as predicted by Moore’s law. And Moore’s law has been going steady for years now. Yes, I realize hardware isn’t everything. But it’s certainly a bottleneck. (I don’t think anyone believes they could achieve the same result IBM’s Watson did on a 1000$ computer if they just wrote better software.)

      I never understand why people quote ‘The Jetsons’ when it comes down to futuristic predictions. It’s a cartoon. I mean, it’s not like we look at the Flinstones and says ‘Oh, that’s what people in the 1960’s thought the Stone Age was like? Getting served by dinosaurs and driving in stone vehicles?!’. The Jetsons is obviously not an attempt at a realistic prediction about the future. Did anyone (with actual credibility) really think we’d have anti-gravity flying cars by now? I have never in fact seen someone with the credentials to back it up actually predict that we’d have flying cars by now, and certainly not that they would be ubiquitous. People always say this, but I wouldn’t know where it comes from. (If someone knows, don’t hesitate to let me know.)

      You say that there was banter about cars driving themselves. How has this not come true? We have seen Google’s driverless car driving 230,000km with only occasional human intervention. The only time it has had an accident was because a human was driving it. The prediction about 30% of all cars being driverless by 2015 seems optimistic to me but more because of legal reasons than technical. Think of the legal implications of driverless cars, who is to blame when there is an accident for example?

      TED Talk about Google’s driverless car for more information:
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bp9KBrH8H04

      Also, you quote robots that folds previously unseen towels, I assume you are referring to the PR2:
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gy5g33S0Gzo

      How can you not be amazed by this? So what if it takes him almost 2 hours, Moore’s law will soon speed it up. And that’s if they don’t even improve the software behind it.

      We are not going to wake up one day and read in the paper about how there was some ‘big breakthrough’ in robotics and we can all go out and buy a 500$ personal robot from Wallmart who drives us around and does our laundry. It will come gradually but faster than you might think. (And I’m sure anyone who has seen the impressive gains in computer power since the 1950’s will agree with me.)

      We are already seeing it today, I am sure you have someone you know that owns a Roomba. Robots are helping us fight wars, often autonomously with only a human there to pull the trigger because else it would be unethical. Sure, Robots are expensive today, but as history has taught us, this won’t last for lon

    23. Re:Load of crap by PastaLover · · Score: 1

      2015 sounds ridiculously close, but I can imagine "assisted" driving systems becoming popular by then. Say, sensors that detect when you're about to rear-end the car in front of you and slam the brakes for you (with a much better chance of avoiding accident due to reaction times). Stuff like this will slowly start to automate our driving experience. 30% driverless by 2015 though? That would require some mad acceleration in research.

    24. Re:Load of crap by Belial6 · · Score: 1

      The robot that vacuums my floors does so without even when the layout of my room changes. Image recognition hasn't achived human levels, but it has definitly improved. The Wii, Xbox360, and PS3 all prove this beyond a shadow of a doubt. In the 70's, you generally pushed the door to a grociery store open. If they were cutting edge, they would have a pressure mat that when you stepped on it, the door would open. Those have been completely replaced by....Imaging systems. Robotic door men that see you coming and open the door for you when you approach. My yard lights up automatically when I approach at night. This is from imaging systems.

      Robots and computer "intelligence" has consistent improved since the 60. The problem is that the stuff that made it main stream doesn't count for most people because it has made it main stream.

    25. Re:Load of crap by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What did Watson mean at the time? Because he was probably right in 1943 with those huge, costly behemoths? Or was he making a prediction about the indefinite future? Which would seem silly. I think it likely the quote has been taken out of context.

  26. Wake me when... by Ossifer · · Score: 1

    ... they've got self-destruct buttons and sassy attitudes.

  27. JPEG? Really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Gah, why is the graphic in the article a JPEG? If it were a PNG it wouldn't be so annoyingly blurry and it would probably have a smaller filesize.

  28. You know the article lives in neverland... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...when it says that in a few year 30% of cars will be "intelligent", when most of your friends are driving 10+ year old vehicles and plan on never switch until it is impossible to fix them any more... unless by intelligent they mean you can browse the net with a 3g connection or something.

  29. guilty of crimes against robots by Thud457 · · Score: 1

    Huge Pacman has a lot to answer for.

    --

    the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

  30. Article by Shotgun · · Score: 1

    I bet the article was written by a robot. It was that devoid of human character.

    --
    Aah, change is good. -- Rafiki
    Yeah, but it ain't easy. -- Simba
  31. I see one of 2 solutions by geekoid · · Score: 1

    1) People can only own 1 robot. They can either hire out the robot or themselves.

    2) Company pay an hourly robot tax that get redistributed to basic needs, and the left over to people.
    Basic needs get cheaper as more of life gets automated. Because we will use robot labor, and not human we remove almost every problem there is with a tradition communism means distribution.

    In any case, robots should always put the pampering of humans first.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  32. much less interesting that 3D printing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    The improvements in 3D printing will make on-demand part building a reality and really change the way things are manufactured. No need to retool a factory across the globe, retrain the workers, build and ship. Soon we'll be able to print whatever part we like/want/need on the spot.

    I'm guessing those efficiencies will drastically change the way products come to market. Less waste (in materials and transport) and faster lead times.

    The real question is whether those efficiencies will outweigh their costs. I am betting yes, but am wrong an astonishing amount of the time.

  33. Amara's Law by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 1

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Amara "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run."

    Ray Kurzweil said much the same thing:
    http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1
    "An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense âoeintuitive linearâ view. So we wonâ(TM)t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century â" it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at todayâ(TM)s rate). The âoereturns,â such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. Thereâ(TM)s even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. ..."

    --
    A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
    1. Re:Amara's Law by cartman · · Score: 1

      I agree with Amara, but not with Kurzweil.

      Do you think that technology has progressed exponentially in your lifetime? Looking over mine, I'd say no.

      It appears to me that the most rapid technological progress occurred during the period from 1865-1965. During that period, people went from subsistence farming-type economies and lifestyles, to a modern technological society. During that time we introduced internal combustion, cars, jet planes, automation, widespread new materials (aluminum, fiberglass, reinforced concrete, etc), mechanized farming, widespread usage of electricity, the service economy, computers, nuclear technology, modern medicine (antibiotics and vaccines), modern weapons of war (tanks, jets, auto machine guns), modern communications (radio, television) and many other things. After that period of 1865-1965, it seems to me that progress has slowed down. My society and lifestyle is not drastically different from when I was a child (I'm about 40). Many of the things I use today (cars, washing machines, the electric grid, jet airplanes, freeways, antibiotics, tylenol, and so on) are essentially the same as they were then, and were introduced during that period.

      Granted, computers have been a huge exception. Computers and information technology continue to advance at the same rapid rate they did in the 1950's and 60's. So far they show no sign of slowing down, and they continue to cause huge changes to society.

      In general, however, technology doesn't seem to be increasing exponentially.

    2. Re:Amara's Law by maxume · · Score: 1

      If "technology increases" at a rate of 0.01% per year, it is increasing exponentially. At that rate, the consequences of 40 years of growth would barely be perceptible. After 1,000 years, things would seem to be changing a little.

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
  34. Re:Load of crap, almost by Animats · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I tend to agree. The article says there are only 8.7 million robots in the world. (I'm not sure about their definition. Do they count Roombas. Hard automation driven by cams?) That's an incredibly small number. It's one year of production for Toyota or GM, for example.

    The big problem is that the cost of the mechanics hasn't declined much. That's mostly a lack of volume issue. However, the control electronics keeps getting cheaper, since it's computer technology.

    Robot vision systems have improved a lot. Many pick and place robots now have at least a basic vision system for fine alignment. This is cheaper than trying to make the robot and the fixture so rigid that the job can be done blind. The biggest headache in industrial robotics is simply getting everything lined up so precisely that a dumb machine can do the job. Adding enough smarts to allow for some misalignment makes things work much better.

    There's been progress on unstructured vision. Towel folding now works. The software is really slow. That can probably be fixed.

    Having been in the field, I will say that we're now at the point where throwing money at the problem works. That wasn't true in the 1980s and 1990s. (See NASA's Flight Telerobotic Servicer, a $200 million flop.). The DARPA Grand Challenge was instructive in showing what money can do. The 2004 Grand Challenge was pathetic - nothing worked very well. At the 2005 Grand Challenge, the worst vehicles were better than anything from 2004, and the best ones were really good. It took NASCAR-sized budgets and the combined efforts of entire computer science departments and auto manufacturers, but it worked.

  35. NOTHING CAN STOP an IDEA WHOSE TIME has COME by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "The Robotic Wageless Economy©"

    http://RoboEco.com/4U

  36. The End of Work as we know it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The problem really is that while jobs are being exported to places where they work for peanuts, in order to maintain any sort of quality there is an intense deployment of robotics, But the real problem is what to do with all the people who used to do the jobs that are now done, and much better, by robots. Out my window as I write this I see the lawnmower cutting the grass -- it is autonomous and has been working for us for six years with very little downtime. Some folks have the ability and interest to get advanced degrees and be knowlege workers -- but what about the rest? Do we institute soylent green for real? Does money still mean the same thing and do we need it to be the same sort of abstract medium of exchange sustained by social conventions? I don't know, but sometimes it looks like we are just not worrying about the right issues.

  37. Our robot saviors! by PeanutButterBreath · · Score: 1

    First, robots were billed as a means to liberate the masses from unpleasant labor. Now they are billed as a means to liberate the few from the unpleasant masses.

  38. Slavery and Robotic Rights by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 1

    http://www.newscientist.com/blog/technology/2007/04/robot-rights.html
    ""If artificial intelligence is achieved and widely deployed (or if they can reproduce and improve themselves) calls may be made for human rights to be extended to robots," the report says. Warming to its theme, it goes on to say that such rights "would likely include" social responsibilities such as voting and paying taxes."

    Also:
    http://www.metafuture.org/Articles/TheRightsofRobots.htm
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_artificial_intelligence
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/article1695546.ece

    So, yes, your comment on "slavery" is very insightful.

    --
    A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
  39. Robots do the jobs humans CANNOT do by boristdog · · Score: 2

    At the factory where I work we have hundreds of robots. We couldn't make semiconductors without them.

    Can any human maneuver a silicon wafer within fractions of a micron of a target? Can they do this hundreds of times an hour, 24 hours a day?

    No. This is what robots do, not humans.

  40. Its the currency not the labor by drnb · · Score: 1

    It is not simply the low cost of labor. For a trivial commodity good then perhaps labor is a major factor. However for most goods labor is only a small fraction of the costs. What gives a country like China a huge advantage is not cheap labor, it is the artificially devalued currency. Some estimates are that China's currency is 40% undervalued. If so then *everything* in China is at a 40% discount, not just the labor. If it were simply labor then the overhead and inconvenience of shipping great distances, of managing an operation (communicating and verifying specs and requirements) many time zones away, dealing with a local environment that is not always run according to the rule of law, ... then fewer things would see an overall cost advantage.

  41. all good technology kills jobs by kborer · · Score: 3

    When people complain about technology killing jobs, I like to point out that they are essentially arguing against EZpass and other electronic highway toll payment technologies. How would you like to go back to waiting in line so that a human can collect money from each car? That would certainly create a lot of jobs.

    But that's not the end of the story. When technology kills less productive jobs, like telephone operators, it also creates new, higher-paying technology jobs. It may be painful in the short run for those who lose their job, but eventually those people can get other jobs that are more productive, with the benefit that the creative destruction of technology will continue to make life cheaper and easier. Ex-telephone operators will have cheaper cars built by robots, ex-car manufacturers will have cheaper phone calls, etc.

    Yes, they will need to develop new skills, but it's just a fact of life that you have to bring something to the table. Why else would anyone trade with you?

    1. Re:all good technology kills jobs by im3w1l · · Score: 1

      There is a significant difference between "killing some jobs", and "killing all jobs". When the latter happens, we will see capitalism as never before: starting with two empty hands is not very easy if no one wants anything done. If you allow me to go out on a limb, seeing the increasing youth unemployment makes me believe we are already pretty far down the path of making workers redundant and useless.

    2. Re:all good technology kills jobs by kborer · · Score: 1

      There is no such thing as killing all jobs because there is always more work to do. Yet, even if we ran out of work to do, who cares? A job is a means to an end, not an end in itself. I wouldn't mind living in a world where robots do all the work, and I can just have fun.

    3. Re:all good technology kills jobs by sahonen · · Score: 1

      Exactly what steps is an adult supposed to take to go from being a toll booth operator to being a robotics engineer? Half the population is below median intelligence, and I want you to think for a moment about what median intelligence is, and imagine half the entire Earth's population being below that. A significant number of people have only their muscles and their ability to follow instructions to contribute to the world, and as long as the distribution of intelligence doesn't change, it will be that way for the foreseeable future. You automate their jobs away, they're not becoming fucking robot designers or computer programmers, they're becoming homeless.

      --
      Make me a friend and I'll mod you up
    4. Re:all good technology kills jobs by Panruru · · Score: 1

      When technology kills less productive jobs, like telephone operators, it also creates new, higher-paying technology jobs. It may be painful in the short run for those who lose their job, but eventually those people can get other jobs that are more productive

      Actually, no. That's not exactly what happens. Say a manufacturing factory replaces a couple hundred of its employees with robots. How many jobs is this going to create? Not the same number it destroyed, that's for sure. Furthermore, most of those factory workers probably aren't very smart or well educated - that's why they were low-paid factory workers. Rather than getting the higher paying technology jobs, most of those workers will find other low paying jobs in industries where it's still easier to higher human workers. Others will be unable to find work and will go on welfare.

      I'm not sure what the future economy is going to look like, but we're going to have a hell of a time getting there.

      --
      "All statements are true in some sense, false in some sense, and meaningless in another sense."
  42. Manna by Onymous+Coward · · Score: 1

    I highly recommend reading Manna. It's a quick read, and a junior effort at writing, but the ideas are well worth contemplation.

  43. This why the big issues with Illegals in the west by WindBourne · · Score: 0

    Basically, you can not allow in 10% of your population with uneducated immigrants, legal or not. For example, the insane idea that we should do another regan-style amnesty is looney tunes in light of all the robotics coming soon. This is the only way for a nation to compete. However, they will have to have cheap energy. Oddly, it will not be coal or any fossil fuel that is going to be cheap energy. It will either be nukes, or combinations of AE namely geo-thermal, solar and wind.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  44. +1 for Kurt Vonnegut by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...for predicting this dilemma in 1965 (God Bless You, Mr. Rosewater). He was oddly accurate about technology's implications for being a technophobe.

  45. Mexican Robots by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Will we have to use Mexican robots to do the work that American robots refuse to do?

  46. Re:Load of crap, almost by cartman · · Score: 1

    Having been in the field, I will say that we're now at the point where throwing money at the problem works. That wasn't true in the 1980s and 1990s.

    I definitely agree with you; I'm definitely not claiming that no progress is made whatsoever.

    My problem with the original article, is that it claimed some kind of robot revolution is right around the corner and that most human labor would soon be replaced. That claim has been made repeatedly (and incorrectly) over the years. Replacing all or most human labor would require solving some very hard problems which still aren't solved, as you pointed out. I'm glad we're making progress, but it still seems like we're fairly far away.

  47. NEW LAW: Robots must be owned by Robot Investors by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This means a mega corp CANNOT build 10,000,000 robots and eliminate those jobs.

    Since robots are "things" they have to be built and owned.

    So a number of ways could be developed to get prosperity for everyone if ALL jobs are eliminated.

    First, all robots would be "contractors" and would be "paid" for their work.

    The person or persons who own the robot would get this income along with the cost of purchasing the robot. The owners would make a profit.

    Multiple ownership could be implemented by "selling stock" in a given robot or fleet of robots.

    Of course, there would have to be a whole set of laws protecting robots from forced obsolescence, favoritism, nepotism, and everything else that already exists regarding human worker discrimination.

    There would be "robot job markets" where owners of "out of work robots" could try to get employment for their investments.

    I may have given away an award winning science fiction plot...
    Regards,
    Tom

  48. and the rail roads are just as slow hole punch tic by Joe_Dragon · · Score: 1

    and the rail roads are just as slow We in 2011 still have hole punch tickets.

  49. Re:Load of crap, almost by Animats · · Score: 1

    We're past the "AI Winter", though. I got a MSCS from Stanford in 1985, which was just about at the point where it was clear that "expert systems" weren't very useful. (The Stanford AI faculty of the time was mostly in denial about that.) What followed was about 15 years of very little progress in AI.

    AI has since made a big comeback, but with completely different technology. It's machine learning and statistics now, not trying to describe the real world with predicate calculus. There was a sort of side trip through neural nets, simulated annealing, and other pseudo-statistical methods, but finally the Bayesian statistics people put a mathematical basis under hill-climbing systems and they started to work. It's about heavy number-crunching now. AI R&D today is done in Matlab, not LISP.

    On the vision front, there's been huge progress. All those old problems like image segmentation and image matching have been solved by the graphics industry. Simultaneous Localization And Mapping (SLAM) from camera data now works. Nor does any of this require supercomputers; now it's often done on commercial GPUs. I used to go to talks on "how we did (interesting thing with images) with 20 minutes of Cray time". We're well past that.

    I don't see a "singularity" in the near future, but automated vacuums that really work are becoming available.

  50. Re:This why the big issues with Illegals in the we by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

    With unemployment in Mexico at 5% I'm hoping to see 10% again soon. Of course I'm in CA so that would be a huge reduction.

    --
    John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
  51. the practicality? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    1. robot labor unions
    2. robot unemployment
    3. robot taxation
    4. robot politicians
    5. robot education
    6. robot retirement ........

  52. Robotic flying cars!!! by Guidii · · Score: 1
    Hey, did you notice the last promise on the "infographic"????

    "By 2038, a completely autonomous flying robot car..."

    Man, I've wanted one of these for ages...

    1. Re:Robotic flying cars!!! by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      Hey, did you notice the last promise on the "infographic"????

      "By 2038, a completely autonomous flying robot car..."

      Man, I've wanted one of these for ages...

      They will crash due to Unix time overflow. :-)

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
  53. Robot videos by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 1

    As I posted here (the related p2presearch archive at listcultures.org has died, sadly, though is available elsewhere):
    http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:mf6UxV35GCQJ:listcultures.org/pipermail/p2presearch_listcultures.org/2009-November/005926.html+p2p+implications+robot+videos

    =======

    Michel Bauwens wrote:
    > I see a big contradiction between freefall and total robotization, with
    > freefall, who's going to invest in total automation?
    >
    > so I would add 2 centuries to the robotic prediction, though I'm not at all
    > certain that this will occur, I think it's a capitalist fantasy essentially,
    > to remove all human contact with making and producing its own livelihood
    > (I'm aware of course that leftleaning people have the same vision from
    > another angle)

    OK, I responded to this once. I'm going to respond again with a longer list of videos. Most are short (except the Nova one).

    "High-Speed Robot Hand Demonstrates Dexterity and Skillful Manipulation"
    http://www.hizook.com/blog/2009/08/03/high-speed-robot-hand-demonstrates-dexterity-and-skillful-manipulation

    "Nova: The Great Robot Race"
    http://www.hulu.com/watch/23347/nova-the-great-robot-race

    "DARPA Urban Challenge 2007"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQFEmR50HAk

    "Home Assistance Robot"
    http://www.gametrailers.com/user-movie/home-assistance-robot/295707

    "ASIMO avoids moving obstacles"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPoANTKo5kA

    "ASIMOs new artificial intelligence. (ASIMO is learning!)"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9ByGQGiVMg

    "Roomba"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqhIMFQNGCg

    "IRobot Packbot action!"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eaP0waiz43w

    "South Korea's Machine Gun Sentry Robot"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5YftEAbmMQ

    "Sentry Robot to Patrol Maine School"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUNikzYgIf4

    "Predator Drones"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMh8Cjnzen8

    "Merseyside Police helicopter remote control drone"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s79QlJGQKks

    "BigDog Overview"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-AGWq0k_Mo

    "The Autonomous Grape-Vine Pruner"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GaGO9LIDEA

    "Robots in warehouse"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fdd6sQ8Cbe0

    "VMS robotic milking"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPqWpOxQmIs

    "Lely Robotic Barn Cleaner"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bphBIwv5Vp8

    "Da Vinci Surgical Robot"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C17-bGquIjI

    "CTC UT-1 ROV Ultra Trencher - Animation"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1U72_B7B3Wk

    "Mars Rover Vid

    --
    A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
  54. The Future Soon by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 1

    "That's cool. You can have that and I'll have a giant robot army and we'll see which works out better."

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDiDK_yBCw0

    Looks like you win. :-) Sort of. :-)

    --
    A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
  55. Free PDF book downoad Re:The Lights in the Tu by Fubari · · Score: 1
    First of all, mod parent up as Informative.
    Good book. Worth buying; it is very thought provoking.
    Next, while I was reading the fine article, I noticed a legit free download of the Lights In The Tunnel book - you can get to it here: http://singularityhub.com/2010/05/21/computers-to-take-human-jobs-shutdown-global-economy-get-fords-book-free/
    Follow that to the download page (click through to amazon, it is a name-your-own price thing, and free is a valid price).
    Here are some points from the download page to tweak your interest:

    Here are just a few of the questions explored in this book:
    How will job automation impact the economy in the future?
    How will the offshore outsourcing trend evolve in the coming years?
    What impact will technologies such as robotics and artificial intelligence have on the job market?
    Did technology play a significant role in the 2007 subprime meltdown and the subsequent global financial crisis and recession?
    How fast can we expect technological change to occur in the coming years and decades?
    Which jobs and industries are likely to be most vulnerable to automation and offshoring?
    Globalization. Collaboration. Telecommuting. Are these the forces that will shape the workplaces of the future? Or is there something bigger lurking?
    Machine and computer automation will primarily impact low skilled and low paid workers. True or false?
    Will advancing technology always make society as a whole more wealthy? Or could it someday cause a severe economic depression?
    What are the implications of advancing automation technology for developing nations such as China and India?
    The primary economic trend in the coming decades will be globalization. True or false?
    Will a college education continue to be a good bet in the future?
    Recent economic data suggests that, in United States, we are seeing increasing income inequality and a dwindling middle class. How will this trend play out in the future?
    What will be the economic impact of truly advanced future technologies, such as nanotechnology?
    Retail positions at Wal-mart and other chain stores have become the jobs of last resort for many workers. Will robots and other forms of machine automation someday threaten these jobs? If so, what alternatives will the economy create for these workers?
    Do we need to adapt our market-based economic system to advancing technology or will the same rules continue to work indefinitely?
    What government policies might make sense as technology continues to accelerate?
    And much more...

  56. This is a common misconception by rsilvergun · · Score: 1

    Your economic theory doesn't take into account the basic fact that people are not rational. You're leaving out nepotism, that people make choices based on their feelings rather than reasoned arguments, or that past a certain level of wealth you're basically untouchable (or 'too big to fail', in other parlance).

    Bankers don't need unions. They're members of our ruling class. Kings and queens don't need a union. When somebody complains about bankers, these are the ones their talking about.

    So what limits the size of the pool? Hint: It's not skill, drive or gumption (whatever Ayne Rand wants you to believe), it's that you can only have so many people in the ruling class. Or, put another way, what good's being rich if nobody's poor.

    --
    Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
    1. Re:This is a common misconception by rufty_tufty · · Score: 2

      Well do computer programmers have a union?
      WRT the size of the pool, if banking is so good, why not become one? Go get an MBA from Harvard and if you get a good result you will get a job in banking. Then work hard and with a little luck you will perform well you will get promoted and become one of the ruling elite.
      I know why I don't do it, because I couldn't, I would be really bad at the social climbing I'd have to do, I couldn't stand the stress and I'm probably not clever enough anyway. But in that case i can't envy them getting well paid for a job that I cannot/choose not to do.
      So if they have it so good why not go and become one? Or do you believe that the system is not merit based? I know there is likely a lot of nepotism, but I do believe that if someone was good enough they would rise as fast as anyone else.

      --
      "The weirdest thing about a mind, is that every answer that you find, is the basis of a brand new cliche" -
    2. Re:This is a common misconception by rsilvergun · · Score: 1

      30% of Harvard students are 'legacy', meaning they got in because their Daddy's rich, so right there I don't get to 'just go to Harvard'. I also need an enormous amount of cash for tuition, books, living expenses (it's not cheap to live in that area), etc.

      As for climbing the social ladder, good luck. You didn't do it not because you'd crack under the pressure, it's just really, really hard. You don't need a little luck, you need the kind of luck that wins the lottery. You don't just 'become the ruling class'. Daily life grinds you down. 50 hour work weeks grind you down. And it takes so little to screw up. Just one kid you weren't planning, and your finances are a mess. Just one illness and a few months without work, and you're done. There's a really culture of blame and self recrimination among the working class in America. It's not the crappy eduction, heath care systems. The transportation system that makes you spend the first 3 months of the year working to pay for a car or the long hours with low pay and no hope of advancement. No. It's your fault, because you didn't work hard and play by the rules.

      Oh, and the poor never catch up, because as soon as they start to, all the gov't programs that help them get yanked away, and they next problem stops them dead in their tracks.

      --
      Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
  57. wrong meta level by Sloppy · · Score: 1

    I have a representative from the rickshaw porter's union here, and he's telling me that Toyota's main business is making robots.

    He says: "They're moving away from heavy automation? You're moving toward it every time you turn the ignition key in your Corolla!"

    --
    As copyright owner of this comment, I authorize everyone to defeat any technological measure which limits access to it.
  58. We may see the rise of the robotic boss by Animats · · Score: 1

    Take a look at Kiva Systems robotic order picking system. About 10% of online orders are picked with these systems.

    Note the setup. All the work that requires thinking is automated. Bins are brought to the order pickers. A laser pointer shows the order picker what to pick. They pass the item under a bar code scanner and put it in an output bin. Learning the job takes about half a day.

    Machines do the thinking. Humans do simple, repetitive tasks.

  59. Image recognition by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Near here is the Golden Ears bridge. It is a toll bridge with no toll booths. The cameras read plates and you get a bill. You can get a transponder but that is strictly optional.

    Robotics is getting much better at certain types of images. Enough to take another huge chunk of jobs.

    MB

  60. Human Possibilities by angiasaa · · Score: 1

    The amount of time that'll be freed up for humans to apply their abilities in other areas. Just because robots might do some of the work that we once used to do, does not in any way mean humans are going to be defunct. Even if humans stop working on menial and repetitive jobs, I'm certain we're not so un-innovative as to be unable to find things to do with ourselves.
     
    I see huge potential opening up for work that mandates the need for what might be viewed or thought of as more human specialties.

    --
    Geekism is your _only_ God!
  61. automatic flying robot car? by cjpa · · Score: 1

    The moment someone predicts the advent of personal flying cars, i know their predictions are just plain wishes and not grounded in any research whatsoever.

  62. Re:This why the big issues with Illegals in the we by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    http://www.indexmundi.com/mexico/unemployment_rate.html.
    The big difference is that we have a lot of promised obligations. Mexico does not. They do not have SS, Medicare, Medicaid, etc. That is what makes them a 3rd world nation. OTH, what makes the west 1st world is that we DO have programs that costs us, but builds up infrastructure designed to help advance our nation. The problem is that if we pick up loads of new uneducated citizens, while at the same time, gutting the low end jobs, it will leave us with high unemployment and loads of financial issues.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  63. Foxconn by Troke · · Score: 1

    Great, now they have to worry about suicidal robots.

  64. A bit late... by Lundse · · Score: 1

    ...this is what Marx was writing about, really. Apart from more people noticing the trend, this is not news.

    And yeah, the basic question then becomes who will be allowed to benefit from the increased production... Sound familiar?

    --
    IAIFARSIJDPOOTV - I Am In Fact A Reality Star; I Just Don't Play One On TV
    1. Re:A bit late... by Nox3173 · · Score: 1

      Who would benefit from increased production? Depends on if we have controlled over-population or not. Society is in for a radical shift in the next hundred years - robots or no robots.

  65. Player Piano by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Kurt Vonnegut, Jr. answered this in his novel Player Piano. The computers controlling the economy will determine what you buy, when you buy it, and will automatically deduct the cost from your bank account and have it delivered to you.

  66. Bender Rules! by justsayin · · Score: 1

    Hey baby, want to kill all humans?

  67. New word of the day by tehcyder · · Score: 1

    So "inforgraphic" means a cheesy/childish summary of a complex topic by someone who thinks Powerpoint is really nifty?

    --
    To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  68. Think your job's secure? by whitroth · · Score: 1

    How soon will we see AIs building websites, and content?

    More important, at least 90% of the entire population right now makes a lot less than $100k, and, at least in the US, real wages have fallen to below 1996 levels (according to the news story this week).

    As it is, most jobs replacing the well-paid, frequently union manufacturing jobs are "service sector" jobs: nurses' aides, pizza delivery, call centers, and construction. Even in the US, construction can't keep going up; *nothing* can (or did y'all want to live on Trantor, with food brought in from other farm planets (assuming we can terraform Mars, say)?).

    I've been trying to start a public conversation about this for a bunch of years: how can most of the population *live*, when the jobs ain't there? And please don't tell me they'll have time to turn to New Things, given how many people merely become couch potatoes.

    So what do we do? Maybe take a page from Alaska, and have companies assign stock to the gov't, and pay dividends, and that goes as a reverse income tax to the rest of us?

                        mark

    1. Re:Think your job's secure? by CentTW · · Score: 1

      Barring extreme breakthroughs in the world of artificial intelligence, machines won't ever take all of the human jobs, but I do think we'll see a point in the not too distant future where machines do take most of the jobs.

      Here's my proposed solution: The government needs to stop paying out unemployment (that model isn't going to work when there are far fewer jobs than people), and instead become the "employer of last resort". While employed by the government under this model, people will have a reasonable (but not very good) income while working at education (both as a student and a teacher), legitimate attempts at searching for a job, and anything else the government can use the extra hands for.

      Companies would benefit from having a large population of highly educated people to do their increasingly complicated jobs (granted their tax burden would have to increase). People as a whole have the benefit of having a guaranteed job. Industrially, I think we'll see improvements from having everybody doing something, rather than having major portions of the population become couch potatoes. Ideologically, we don't end up paying people to do nothing.

      Unfortunately, it will require us to actually tax the people with the means of production, so we probably can't see anything like this put into place without a revolution or something.

  69. "advanced degrees" ?! by jafac · · Score: 1

    FTA: Artificial intelligence is allowing automation to take positions held by people with advanced degrees.

    I think that this is referring to law firm associates that used to do law-library research for cases, that is now being done by search engines. This has received a high amount of press, largely because it affects a relatively SMALL number (thousands, compared to the MILLIONS of people impacted by manufacturing labor problems), with relatively LARGE (six-figure) salaries.

    These individuals, if they have "advanced degrees" (4-yr liberal-arts matriculation + law school, CRY ME A FUCKING RIVER!) - will find jobs elsewhere. Period. Their specialty field has evaporated. Poor babies.

    --

    These are my friends, See how they glisten. See this one shine, how he smiles in the light.
  70. How baby carrots are done, not by robots by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The info-graphics suggest that baby carrots are made by robots. At least in Europe they aren't and I doubt they are done by something as complicated and expensive as a robot anywhere in the world.

    Baby carrots are made by putting the carrots in a rotating drum, sometimes with chemicals and/or mechanical abrasives. Then they are tumbled around until they are the right size.

    A similar method is often used for "cutting" ham and similar meat. Large (boneless) pieces of the animal is tumbled around in a drum with a salt solution (sometimes lye), until the cartilage that make the meat "cuts" stick together and tough membranes around the muscles have dissolved or separated from the "cuts".