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Value of Bitcoin "Crashes"

souravzzz writes with an update on the state of Bitcoin. Quoting the Ars Technica article: "Bitcoin, the world's first peer-to-peer digital currency, fell below $3 on Monday. That represents a 90 percent fall since the currency hit its peak in early June." That's still three times its value in April 2011.

709 comments

  1. Bitcoin by TechLA · · Score: 5, Insightful

    People keep saying that BitCoin will have it's value as long as people keep using it and that you're not supposed to get rich by mining. But that isn't even the problem. I transferred some cash to BitCoins and back on Friday and it was paid out to me on Sunday. By the time I got the transfer, it had lost almost half of its value. Now imagine if that would constantly happen with your real money. It wasn't much, but I sure as hell aren't going to use it again. This is why PayPal and other ecurrencies are fixed to real world value - they are stable (as far as it can be), and BitCoin can't ever get as stable as real world currencies (yes I know they aren't that stable, but that just means even bigger problems with BitCoin)

    1. Re:Bitcoin by Smallpond · · Score: 5, Insightful

      You may have lost money on it, but somebody gained. Currency speculation has been around a long time. Most currencies aren't as volatile because there is a government making a monetary policy to control it. Bitcoin is a real opportunity for speculators.

    2. Re:Bitcoin by Goaway · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Oh, that's nice. I can give my money to speculators! Let me get right on that.

    3. Re:Bitcoin by rodrigoandrade · · Score: 1

      Money IRL is backed by debt, a promise to honor the debt by a central bank. Currency has some stability because people have fairly reasonable expectations that a government will pay back its debt, but it's not 100% trustworthy (just look at Greece).

      The problem with Bitcoin is that it's not tied to an index (e.g. 1 bitcoin = 1 US dollar) nor is it backed by anyone.

    4. Re:Bitcoin by TechLA · · Score: 2

      To be honest, it's really a paradise for those who want to short sell and gain money on crashing the market. Bitcoinica seems to be one such platform which allows short selling with 1:50 or higher leverage. I guess it's a good opportunity to make some quick cash, but along the way actual Bitcoin users will get fucked over and Bitcoin's value just keeps going lower and lower. I guess the developers didn't really plan for that.

    5. Re:Bitcoin by MareLooke · · Score: 4, Informative

      You are most likely already doing that already anyway. What do you think your bank does with your money?

    6. Re:Bitcoin by cyn1c77 · · Score: 2

      People keep saying that BitCoin will have it's value as long as people keep using it and that you're not supposed to get rich by mining. But that isn't even the problem. I transferred some cash to BitCoins and back on Friday and it was paid out to me on Sunday. By the time I got the transfer, it had lost almost half of its value. Now imagine if that would constantly happen with your real money.

      Ummm, that does happen with your real money. Have you looked at the stock markets and the international exchange rates lately?!

    7. Re:Bitcoin by shentino · · Score: 1

      The real problem IMHO is that hackers have pissed in the punch by writing trojans to steal them and are using armies of botnets to mine them.

      So now bitcoins are derisively aggregated with everything else nefarious that black hats are up to.

      One may as well try to deal in booze during prohibition.

    8. Re:Bitcoin by LordLimecat · · Score: 2

      Gives me a return and guarentees my money will be available?

    9. Re:Bitcoin by onepoint · · Score: 1

      the real problem is the level of adoption and liquidity. In the history of money, the crash of money ( and the rise ) is always based on the availability of liquidity. the more people that adopt the currency, the less likelihood that there will be a crash of the currency, because the currency will have a perceived value.

      to you a historical example of liquidity : If you recall, in the temple where jesus flipped the tables, it was all money changers. another example was the Knights Templers usage of letters of credit ( or something like those ), which made trade easier and off laid the currency's risk, another good example is Zimbabwe, where the currency kept dropping due to too much supply and no demand, but it still traded, the liquidity was there and it was a steady decline.

         

      --
      if you see me, smile and say hello.
    10. Re:Bitcoin by DrgnDancer · · Score: 0

      Hell at least people made a lot of money in exchange for the risks they took selling booze during Prohibition. Bitcoins don't even have that advantage.

      --
      I don't need a million points of light, just two points of multi-mode fiber and a 10 Gig-E router.
    11. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      On the other hand, the fundamental nature of exponents is that as long as debt grows faster than the economy you are in fact engaged in a pyramid scheme that must, mathematically, fail. Why not make money tied to resources as it should have been in the first place?

    12. Re:Bitcoin by Bill,+Shooter+of+Bul · · Score: 1

      Actually, that's how my family made its money when it moved here: bootlegging during prohibition. They did very well for themselves. But, bitcoin, that's just a tax on people who suck at macroeconomics.

      --
      Well.. maybe. Or Maybe not. But Definitely not sort of.
    13. Re:Bitcoin by slim · · Score: 2

      That only applies for current / savings accounts, who's interest rates barely keep up with inflation. If your balance stays still, you're losing money.

    14. Re:Bitcoin by betterunixthanunix · · Score: 1

      Money IRL is also backed by the fact that people must obtain money in order to settle government debts (e.g. taxes). Bitcoin still fails under this theory, since no government will accept Bitcoin as a tax payment.

      --
      Palm trees and 8
    15. Re:Bitcoin by mmcuh · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You get back what it says on your balance with Bitcoin as well. It's a currency, not a banking system.

    16. Re:Bitcoin by discord5 · · Score: 1

      I transferred some cash to BitCoins and back on Friday and it was paid out to me on Sunday. By the time I got the transfer, it had lost almost half of its value. Now imagine if that would constantly happen with your real money.

      That happens with real money too, you know. There's this wonderful thing called hyperinflation, which if left unchecked leads to money with preposterous values printed on it. An example would be Zimbabwe dollar, which had bills worth several million dollars. It became so bad a couple of years ago that the days the 100.000.000 dollar bill was first printed, the 200.000.000 dollar bill was announced. They abandoned their currency that year and currently trade in foreign currency if I'm not mistaken. I know Zimbabwe is a terrible example to use, but still...

      This is why PayPal and other ecurrencies are fixed to real world value - they are stable (as far as it can be)

      The value of currency is like you imply not all that stable. Sure, it's not like the zimbabwe dollar, since most countries try to keep their currency in check as well as they can, but don't assume that over the course of a month suddenly your money isn't worth as much as it used to be.

      As for Bitcoin... Well... Meh, who really gives a fuck. (Pardon my french) The only people who made any real profits on it are GPU vendors and power companies, and a lucky few which I doubt exceed a handful of people. FWIW, it behaves like a real currency would, but not a very reliable one.

    17. Re:Bitcoin by nedlohs · · Score: 1

      No. Government bonds are backed by a promise to honor the debt. Money is just money, if you have a $5 note it will be worth $5 tomorrow and that's all you can say. it might buy half as much stuff tomorrow as today if you happen to be experiencing hyper inflation. The only promise involved is that the government will use its powers of force to make creditors accept that currency for debt payments and that the government itself will accept payments to it in that currency.

      There's an expectation that the government won't print obscene amounts of money overnight - though there's no promise that they won't (and many governments have).

      There's no need for indexing or backing for a currency. There's a built in limit to money printing so even the normal expectation of not printing obscene amounts is enforced. Bitcoins problems are that the market is thin and hence volatile. However, there's also no reason to expect that governments wouldn't take steps to prevent its use if it did "take off", since they'd very much like to be able to not have limits on their monetary policy options.

    18. Re:Bitcoin by TheRaven64 · · Score: 4, Informative

      No, the real problem is that bitcoin is not backed by anything. Old currencies were backed by a precious metal. If you had one Pound Sterling, then the Bank of England would give you one pound of sterling silver. Modern fiat currencies are backed by a promise from the government that they will accept them in payment of taxes. Bitcoin was backed by some pointless computation.

      If a bitcoin had been a promise to do some computation work in the future, then it may have had some value, because people need computational work done. For example, something like Amazon's compute cloud could potentially back a currency, because the service of running a VM for some number of CPU seconds is fungible and - importantly - people actually want it. No one wants the work that is done to generate a bitcoin, so the coin itself is worthless. Its value is based entirely on the premise that other people will want it in the future, but that's just a pyramid scheme.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    19. Re:Bitcoin by MattSausage · · Score: 1

      Exactly how is this different than taking my money to the riverboat and laying it down on blackjack?

    20. Re:Bitcoin by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      Assuming you understand macroeconomics...How so? I am honestly wondering. I don't know much about economics but many of the people who think bitcoin is a good idea actually seem to have a very good grasp of macroeconomics.

    21. Re:Bitcoin by Lumpy · · Score: 1

      "What do you think your bank does with your money?"

      Rolling around naked in it laughing like maniacs...

      --
      Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
    22. Re:Bitcoin by Surt · · Score: 1

      They don't actually guarantee that your money will be available. And neither does the FDIC. The FDIC sort of promises you can get some of your money back, eventually, but how long eventually is, and whether or not your money has any worth if they have to go on a printing spree ...

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    23. Re:Bitcoin by operagost · · Score: 2, Insightful

      On September 16, 1992, Black Wednesday, Soros's fund sold short more than $10 billion in pounds,[20] profiting from the UK government's reluctance to either raise its interest rates to levels comparable to those of other European Exchange Rate Mechanism countries or to float its currency.

      Finally, the UK withdrew from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, devaluing the pound, earning Soros an estimated $1.1 billion. He was dubbed "the man who broke the Bank of England".[25] In 1997, the UK Treasury estimated the cost of Black Wednesday at £3.4 billion.

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    24. Re:Bitcoin by mcmonkey · · Score: 0

      If a bitcoin had been a promise to do some computation work in the future, then it may have had some value, because people need computational work done. For example, something like Amazon's compute cloud could potentially back a currency, because the service of running a VM for some number of CPU seconds is fungible and - importantly - people actually want it. No one wants the work that is done to generate a bitcoin, so the coin itself is worthless. Its value is based entirely on the premise that other people will want it in the future, but that's just a pyramid scheme.

      Quoted for truth.

    25. Re:Bitcoin by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      Oh, that's nice. I can give my money to speculators! Let me get right on that.

      Can anyone explain the purpose of "speculators"? When I ask "What do speculators produce?" the answer seems to always be, "Speculators produce liquidity in the market."

      That sounds suspiciously like when my mom used to say "Because I said so."

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    26. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're obviously not living in Greece...

    27. Re:Bitcoin by nedlohs · · Score: 1

      But why would you do that in the first place? I don't often convert my money to rupees on Friday and back to dollars on Sunday. And if you transferred it back on Friday surely you locked the rate then?

      if you are forced to use a such a volatile implement you hedge anyway. Costs very little.

      And paypal is not an "ecurrency" it's a transfer (and storage if you are an idiot) mechanism for whatever currencies they happen to support.

    28. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sooooo boring having your money always be where you left it. And federally insured? Ugh.

    29. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      NOT-THIS-SHIT-AGAIN!!!
      (backed by promise - sounds great)

    30. Re:Bitcoin by prefect42 · · Score: 1

      You mean when the state's not deliberately inflating it away?

      --

      jh

    31. Re:Bitcoin by suso · · Score: 1

      That sounds suspiciously like when my mom used to say "Because I said so."

      You're obviously alive. Maybe you have a job and are generally doing ok? Well then, I think "because I said so" worked for you. "Because I said so" is just a way of saying "You're too young and naive to understand why this is a bad idea and that I know what is better for you, but I'm putting in a way to exert my authority so that you don't question it." According to your profile you are a father and should hopefully already know this.

    32. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I thought the purpose of bitcoin was to make the creators of bitcoin rich? The protocol seems to imply that.

    33. Re:Bitcoin by LoyalOpposition · · Score: 3, Insightful

      They can do what they want as long as I can get back what it says on my balance. Are you seriously this [redacted]ing stupid?

      Hmmm, how to put this...let's say TechLA put 1000 BitCoin into the BitCoin bank on Friday. Then on Sunday he withdrew 1000 BitCoin from the BitCoin bank. In other words, the BitCoin bank payed out what it said on the balance. TechLA's complaint is that he could only buy about half the stuff with that 1000 BitCoins on Sunday as he could on Friday. A similar thing can happen with other currencies. Take the United States dollar as example. One of the highest recent inflations occurred in the late 70's and early-to-mid 80's. So, suppose you put 1000 USD into a checking account in 1977. Let's ignore the Negotiable Order of Withdrawal stuff for a bit, and any service charges. Then in 1987 you could withdraw 1000 USD. However, in 1987 you could only buy about half of the stuff (actually about 0.518) with 1000 USD as you could with 1000 USD in 1977. According to some theories of economics, that change was partially caused by the change in the amount of money; and, in the United States, the amount of money is controlled by the Federal Reserve System in coordination with the various banks in the country.

      So I would have to say, no, MareLooke isn't quite as stupid as you might have thought.

      ~Loyal

      --
      I aim to misbehave.
    34. Re:Bitcoin by fridaynightsmoke · · Score: 5, Informative

      Oh, that's nice. I can give my money to speculators! Let me get right on that.

      Can anyone explain the purpose of "speculators"? When I ask "What do speculators produce?" the answer seems to always be, "Speculators produce liquidity in the market."

      That sounds suspiciously like when my mom used to say "Because I said so."

      When speculators are right, they even out price fluctuations by buying when they believe a commodity is unreasonably cheap, and selling when it's expensive. The act of buying makes the 'cheap' price more expensive by taking some of the commodity off the market, and conversely selling when expensive makes the commodity cheaper at that time. In non-price terms, speculators soak up surpluses when they exist, and add extra supply in times of shortage.

      When speculators are wrong or generally stupid, all hell breaks loose. Careless/stupid speculators buy in a rising market, driving the price up faster, then all sell at the same time when they realise that prices can go down as well as up, causing and then bursting a classic bubble.

      --
      This is a substitute for a clever sig that fits within the maximum number of characters.
    35. Re:Bitcoin by kilfarsnar · · Score: 1

      They produce liquidity in that they are willing buyers of whatever is being speculated upon. Their purpose is to increase the balance of their and their clients' bank accounts.

      --
      "What the American public doesn't know is what makes them the American public." -Ray Zalinsky (Tommy Boy)
    36. Re:Bitcoin by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 4, Funny

      Rolling around naked in it laughing like maniacs...

      And this is why I no longer use cash.

      --
      Time to offend someone
    37. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Umm... that could happen with real money too. If you transferred from one currency to another, and then back again a few days later there will likely have been some fluctuation in the exchange rates. If you were dealing with a new unstable currency (which is what bitcoin currently is), that fluctuation could be huge.

    38. Re:Bitcoin by donutz · · Score: 1

      Where are you banking, because I want to bank there!

      Or when you say "a return", are you referring to an amount less than inflation, so they're giving you more dollars back, but less purchasing power, for letting them use it in the meantime? In that case, I already have one of those.

    39. Re:Bitcoin by John+Hasler · · Score: 2

      Its value is based entirely on the premise that other people will want it in the future

      That's true of all money (including gold).

      --
      Warning: this article may contain humor, sarcasm, parody, and perhaps even irony. Read at your own risk.
    40. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Are you honestly comparing 2 days with 10 years of handpicked "highest recent inflations"? If I changed my local currency to 1000 USD on Friday and it was worth half as much of my local currency by Sunday I'd be pissed too.

    41. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You misspelled "gamblers".

    42. Re:Bitcoin by BranMan · · Score: 1

      Well, that is correct - speculators generate liquidity in the market. They are the gamblers, always buying and selling shares to make a little on each transaction, following the trends, staying a little ahead of where everyone else is going, etc. If they were not around, and say you bought 100 shares in a company because you thought it would do well, you may not look at it for a month or two. That's investing. BUT, it does not keep the market liquid - it does not keep the volume of trades up. The gamblers do. What I think the problem today is, the market has gotten so 'sophisticated' that actual shares are not bought and sold anymore - they do not change hands. So all you have left is, for want of a better term, gambling. If that was REQUIRED - that an actual physical (or electronic even) share was transferred by a sale - then a lot of the ridiculous speculation would go away. That would be a step in the right direction.

    43. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      yadda yadda yadda
      bitch bitch bitch

      did you invest is eruos and can you offer those as a counter example?

    44. Re:Bitcoin by 1s44c · · Score: 1

      You may have lost money on it, but somebody gained. Currency speculation has been around a long time. Most currencies aren't as volatile because there is a government making a monetary policy to control it. Bitcoin is a real opportunity for speculators.

      Most currencies aren't as volatile simply because they are WAY bigger. A central bank isn't required.

      Speculators suck in any currency or asset. They extract value and put nothing back. They are the 1% I'd like to see removed.

    45. Re:Bitcoin by egamma · · Score: 2

      They don't actually guarantee that your money will be available. And neither does the FDIC. The FDIC sort of promises you can get some of your money back, eventually, but how long eventually is, and whether or not your money has any worth if they have to go on a printing spree ...

      The FDIC can't go on a printing spree. I'm not sure if you're not familiar with the FDIC, or if you simply didn't provide the subject for your "they". It should read:

      "The FDIC guarantees your bank deposits, but does not guarantee that the Federal Government that the FDIC is not a part of won't print money"

    46. Re:Bitcoin by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      I don't understand why people feel so strongly that a currency needs to be a commodity first. The value of bitcoin is that it can't be counterfeited and they are easy to store and transfer. Also, the production of it is pretty much predefined, so its value cannot be manipulated by a central group of people in the same way as fiat.

      The real problem is that people who like to tinker with things think that the average person will understand why the latter is to their advantage, especially given that, at least at the moment, bitcoins are not very durable or easy to keep safe from thieves unless you know what you're doing.

    47. Re:Bitcoin by berashith · · Score: 1

      i do this too. I keep it in american dollars

    48. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, let's only allow things the Slashdot Socialists approve of. I bet if we all just did things your way you can guarantee nothing would ever go wrong.

    49. Re:Bitcoin by shentino · · Score: 2

      It's not just stupid speculators that cause bubbles.

      People trying to manipulate the market can do the same thing.

      The difference is that they know damn well what they are doing.

    50. Re:Bitcoin by DrXym · · Score: 1

      Yeah somebody gained. And people gain in pyramid schemes and Ponzis too. Doesn't mean it isn't a scam and it should have been obvious that Bitcoin was exactly that.

    51. Re:Bitcoin by inviolet · · Score: 1

      There's no need for indexing or backing for a [national] currency. There's a built in limit to money printing so even the normal expectation of not printing obscene amounts is enforced.

      That doesn't work when money can be created electronically, by the central bank simply making an unmatched entry in its balance sheet.

      According to the data, the US money supply (M2) has doubled since the year 2000, during a time period in which the total size of the backing economy has not kept up. Inflation, in other words. That means that the US has pilfered back between one-third and one-half of the value of the $3 trillion US dollars held in China's central bank.

      Funny, isn't it? For the last twenty years, they've told us to worry about China owning too much US debt... and now we just snatched back a huge chunk of it by having some guy in Washington add a row to a spreadsheet.

      --
      FATMOUSE + YOU = FATMOUSE
    52. Re:Bitcoin by History's+Coming+To · · Score: 1

      You mean "guaranteed" that you'll get back what it says on your balance? Nope, you're not. It's entirely possible that you could go to take it out, and the bank just says "No, sorry, we haven't got it, we gambled with it and lost. Sorry!"

      This is why we're in situation we are, the banks screwed up, lost the gambles, and if people get the money back it's because the governments cover it with money from the taxpayer, something I doubt they'll be doing again.

      In short, yes, they can do what they want, and no, you can't have your money back. There is something "fucking stupid" going on, but it's not the guy/girl you were replying to.

      --
      Please consider this account deleted, I just can't be bothered with the spam anymore.
    53. Re:Bitcoin by geekoid · · Score: 1

      And do you know why that happened in zimbabwe? Answer this and you know why bitcoin won't work.

      Currency is most of the world is very stable. It has ups and downs, but it has become pretty stable overall. You know why? Adoption of policy based on experience and history*.
      Experience and knowledge bitcoin apparently chose to ignore... or exploit.

      *And the data and history shows it needs to be different then a certain major political party want's it to be, so that muddies the water.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    54. Re:Bitcoin by DrXym · · Score: 4, Insightful

      So it's directly comparable except in the sense that Bitcoin lost half its value in 2 days versus 10 years in your handpicked scenario.

    55. Re:Bitcoin by inviolet · · Score: 1

      But why would you do that in the first place? I don't often convert my money to rupees on Friday and back to dollars on Sunday. And if you transferred it back on Friday surely you locked the rate then?

      if you are forced to use a such a volatile implement you hedge anyway. Costs very little.

      Very insightful.

      Now, can you provide an equally insightful answer to the following question: with what do you hedge a position in bitcoin? There isn't an options market for bitcoins yet, and I can't think of any other security that moves opposite to them (seeing as how the world of bitcoins is so insular).

      --
      FATMOUSE + YOU = FATMOUSE
    56. Re:Bitcoin by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Speculators cause money to flow.

      In other words: They invest in risky operations. So if you need a loan, but it's to risky for an invetment, a speculator might make the loan.

      Investor and speculator get used interchangeably by people who warn't experts in the field, so it can be confusing.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculators

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    57. Re:Bitcoin by Gideon+Wells · · Score: 1

      All currencies are backed by trust and perceived value.

      All the backing of the US currency, for example, by gold would be useless if you weren't certain there were still in Fort Knox. They open the doors? Gold plated. Bars tested? Who had the bars tested? The coins are gold, well, are they watered down? Eventually you have to trust the gold exists, or doesn't, even with metal backed currencies.

      If enough people used bitcoin the value would stabilize as a conesus value formed. If enough coffee shops felt 20 Bitcoins (pulling value at random for example) was worth one large coffee then the bitcon begins to get tied down to be worth 1/20th a large coffee. If a delicatessen feels a particular sandwhich is worth 25 bitcoins, bitcoins are there inversely worth 1/25th this sandwhich. Eventually an equilibrium would form.

      You are right about the current state. I wouldn't touch a bitcoin with a ten foot pole. It seems to me there are only two users of bitcoins. Currency/pyramid schemers and those who are of the techno-libertarian leaning. There are far too many of the former for myself to trust it and the price swings.

         

      --
      by Anonymous Coward: I, for one, welcome the shift from car analogies to pizza analogies. um.. overlords?
    58. Re:Bitcoin by Fnkmaster · · Score: 1

      That's all nice and true, but the reason people hold dollars is because they can predict with extremely high confidence that it won't buy half as much stuff in 2 days. That confidence is developed by governments over the course of decades, or even centuries. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has no such track record, nor pledges behind it, and it has demonstrated extreme volatility, and an exponential explosion in value (which is almost always the sign of a speculative bubble, to be followed by a crash).

    59. Re:Bitcoin by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Because ti fails to take into account real world variables. GDP, Unemployment, International market.
      Basically for it to work, the value of everything would be equal in every country. Meaning a 12oz Soda, would cost the same in every country.

      Add to that it's only speculators that CAN make money in the long run.

      People running business that only take bitcoin haven't seem to realize it yet, but when the value of bitcoin drops like this, so does the value of their business.

      Business the take bitcoin and other currency. had there business value drop about the percentage of bitcoins they 'have'.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    60. Re:Bitcoin by babblefrog · · Score: 1

      Not necessarily. If what you are using has a practical use, then it has value even if nobody else wants it in the future.

    61. Re:Bitcoin by webnut77 · · Score: 2

      Exactly how is this different than taking my money to the riverboat and laying it down on blackjack?

      With blackjack you could win.

    62. Re:Bitcoin by stating_the_obvious · · Score: 1

      I get your point, but your example is a bit flawed. PayPal isn't an eCurrency -- it's just a method of transferring payments. BitCoin is a free floating currency. A better example is spending US dollars to buy Euros, and then selling the Euros to get your US Dollars back. Exchange rates change, and you either win or lose.

      The two problems the most impact BitCoin are 1) small total volume increases volatility from trading, and 2) lack of transparent BitCoin economy eliminates contextual factors that influence trading behaviors. In theory, both these factors could diminish over time.

    63. Re:Bitcoin by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Imagine it you want to a bank to make withdrawal, and they tole you you can have you money in 2 days. That would suck and be useless. Now imagine two days went buy and not it's worth half.

      And no, it dos NOT mean some else made money. IT could mean peoples topped using it for a short time.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    64. Re:Bitcoin by 1s44c · · Score: 1

      Money IRL is backed by debt, a promise to honor the debt by a central bank. Currency has some stability because people have fairly reasonable expectations that a government will pay back its debt, but it's not 100% trustworthy (just look at Greece).

      The problem with Bitcoin is that it's not tied to an index (e.g. 1 bitcoin = 1 US dollar) nor is it backed by anyone.

      Nevermind a little country like Greece, the US came pretty close to defaulting on its debt recently. Massive devaluations can happen to any currency and none of them are tied to anything anymore. US dollars are not a store of value since the gold standard was removed, they are just a promise from the US government who has a good history of keeping promises.

    65. Re:Bitcoin by authalic · · Score: 1

      John Maynard Keynes commented on speculators, back in 1936, after speculation wrecked the economy in the previous Great Depression.

      "Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes a bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill done."

      Basically, when speculation takes place as a part of normal economic activity (such as purchasing contracts for fuel or commodities at a fixed price in order to plan your future business spending) it's part of the general flow of the economy, and does no more harm than bubbles on a stream. But when speculation becomes a business itself, the entire economy can get sucked down the whirlpool. The most recent economic boom definitely seems to have been casino-based.

      --
      "I'll die before I surrender, Tim"
    66. Re:Bitcoin by Asic+Eng · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I don't understand why people feel so strongly that a currency needs to be a commodity first.

      Not the point which was made. Currency being a commodity is *one* way to back it. Bitcoin doesn't have that. Another way would be lots of people using it for trading goods, by having a significant power structure (like a country) standing for it etc. As far as I can tell Bitcoin doesn't have backing in the form of the named examples, or in any other form.

      its value cannot be manipulated by a central group of people in the same way as fiat.

      Unfortunately that's not correct, a small number of people who got in early own most bitcoins. That's not technical problem of currencies like Bitcoin - but it is one Bitcoin has, specifically.

      Even worse - the Bitcoin supply itself is finite and very small (compared with economies of entire countries). So it has no chance to ever become stable, and even if it did it would suffer the same problem the gold standard had, i.e. being inherently deflationary.

      Bitcoin is interesting because it makes you think about how currencies work, but unfortunately it's not set up to become a viable currency. Either because someone didn't think enough about how currencies work, or because becoming a viable currency wasn't actually the goal.

    67. Re:Bitcoin by m.ducharme · · Score: 1

      This might be helpful: Golden Cyberfetters

      It's the New York Times site, they're supposed to allow outside linking to content behind their firewall, but I don't know if it works.

      --
      Rule of Slashdot #0: You and people like you are not representative of the larger population. - A.C.
    68. Re:Bitcoin by JasterBobaMereel · · Score: 1

      Any currency is only what people think it is worth...

      Most currencies are either backed by hard commodities (Gold Silver etc) or by a Government who regulates it enough to make it fairly stable

      Bitcoin had neither and so it worth whatever the market thinks it is worth, and the market has finally woken up to the fact that it's true worth is zero ...

      --
      Puteulanus fenestra mortis
    69. Re:Bitcoin by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      Its value is based entirely on the premise that other people will want it in the future

      That's true of all money (including gold).

      Yeah, and in the long term we're all dead.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    70. Re:Bitcoin by Dunbal · · Score: 1

      as long as I can get back what it says on my balance.

      I guess I can't really blame you for being as stupid as 99% of the rest of the people in the world. Getting your balance back at the end of the year means you lost a year's worth of purchasing power. You need to get your balance back plus whatever inflation happens to be - just to break even. Just as a tip, banks pay you less than inflation even on term deposits. But most people ignore this because hey, inflation is only a few percent, right?

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    71. Re:Bitcoin by Surt · · Score: 1

      If the FDIC can't cover the accounts it insures, what do you think happens? Does the government:

      1) Let the situation spiral out of control, as people lose faith in their ability to get money out of banks
      or
      2) Print money to cover the losses at the FDIC?

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    72. Re:Bitcoin by 1s44c · · Score: 1

      There's no need for indexing or backing for a [national] currency. There's a built in limit to money printing so even the normal expectation of not printing obscene amounts is enforced.

      That doesn't work when money can be created electronically, by the central bank simply making an unmatched entry in its balance sheet.

      According to the data, the US money supply (M2) has doubled since the year 2000, during a time period in which the total size of the backing economy has not kept up. Inflation, in other words. That means that the US has pilfered back between one-third and one-half of the value of the $3 trillion US dollars held in China's central bank.

      Funny, isn't it? For the last twenty years, they've told us to worry about China owning too much US debt... and now we just snatched back a huge chunk of it by having some guy in Washington add a row to a spreadsheet.

      I have to wonder at the Chinese. Wasn't it obvious the US would inflate its way to reduced debt? It seemed the obvious way out to me.

      $1.5 trillion is still a crazy large amount of money to owe though.

    73. Re:Bitcoin by dr2chase · · Score: 1

      Pretty much. Some currencies are more volatile than others, and the dollar is relatively non-volatile, and has a huge chunk of the world economy depending on it being not-too-volatile, and a Federal Reserve Bank devoted to keeping inflation at or below 2%, and willing to tolerate pretty nasty levels of unemployment to achieve it. It's just a matter of scale.

    74. Re:Bitcoin by goose-incarnated · · Score: 1, Redundant

      They can do what they want as long as I can get back what it says on my balance. Are you seriously this [redacted]ing stupid?

      Hmmm, how to put this...let's say TechLA put 1000 BitCoin into the BitCoin bank on Friday. Then on Sunday he withdrew 1000 BitCoin from the BitCoin bank. In other words, the BitCoin bank payed out what it said on the balance. TechLA's complaint is that he could only buy about half the stuff with that 1000 BitCoins on Sunday as he could on Friday. A similar thing can happen with other currencies. Take the United States dollar as example. One of the highest recent inflations occurred in the late 70's and early-to-mid 80's. So, suppose you put 1000 USD into a checking account in 1977. Let's ignore the Negotiable Order of Withdrawal stuff for a bit, and any service charges. Then in 1987 you could withdraw 1000 USD. However, in 1987 you could only buy about half of the stuff (actually about 0.518) with 1000 USD as you could with 1000 USD in 1977. According to some theories of economics, that change was partially caused by the change in the amount of money; and, in the United States, the amount of money is controlled by the Federal Reserve System in coordination with the various banks in the country.

      What the hell are the mods smoking? "+4 informative"? Really? In what world is a half-life of 2 days the same as a half-life of ten years? What sort of cognitive malfunction makes a person think that losing half your wealth over two days is comparable to losing half your value over ten years?

      So I would have to say, no, MareLooke isn't quite as stupid as you might have thought.

      ~Loyal

      Behold, fellow slashdotters - the Dunning-Kruger effect at work.

      (ps, Actually, you both are probably as stupid as gp thought)

      --
      I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
    75. Re:Bitcoin by Nursie · · Score: 1, Insightful

      No, the real problem is that (other than silk road) there is no bitcoin economy, there are just exchanges, speculators and hoarders, plus a few folks who realised they could 'mine' and pay for hardware that way.

      Hoarders wait on a rise, they do not contribute to an economy.
      Miners who are not hoarders just sell as they generate.
      Everyone else is either a drug dealer or a speculator.

      Oh, and there have been a lot of fraudsters too. And yes, I'm deliberately ignoring the 0.01% of people who have a genuine bitcoin business idea. It's unfortunate that there are so few of them, and all the businesses just seem to be "existing business" + "bitcoin!!!"

    76. Re:Bitcoin by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      The value of liquidity in the market is that there comes a time when an investor will want to turn some portion of their investment into cash. If a market is liquid, the investor can easily get cash for their investment. If a market is not very liquid, there can be significant delay in getting cash in return for assets.
      Another example of a way that speculators help the market can be illustrated with natural disasters. In the ordinary course of events there is a limited demand for most building supplies in a particular region. After a natural disaster, there will be a significant increase in the demand for building supplies in that area that cannot be met by the inventory on hand of the regular suppliers. A speculator will buy a large quantity of building supplies in some other region and ship them to the area where the natural disaster occurred, betting that they will be able to sell them for significantly more than they paid for them plus the shipping costs. If you do not have speculators doing this, the amount of time that it would take to recover from a natural disaster would be much greater as it would take longer to get the supplies necessary to rebuild.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    77. Re:Bitcoin by mapkinase · · Score: 1

      "By the time I got the transfer, it had lost almost half of its value"

      undefined "value" detected. If you needed bitcoins for some transaction that is better done in bitcoins, then you are fine.

      --
      I do not believe in karma. "Funny"=-6. Do good and forbid evil. Yours, Oft-Offtopic Flamebaiting Troll.
    78. Re:Bitcoin by networkBoy · · Score: 1

      Well, in the case of gold your statement is incorrect:

      value is based entirely on the premise

      true of all money (including gold).

      In the case of gold and all other asset monies (silver, platinum, copper, rhodium, etc.), there is a fundamental demand for the asset its self, not just acceptance of it as money. Specifically there is an intrinsic value to the asset, it has a use even if its value as a currency magically dropped to zero.
      In the case of fiat currency, there is an intrinsic value as well, though much less so. It is valued as a means to pay your government. Even if its value between trading partners dropped to zero, as long as the government accepts it, then it has value.
      With bitcoin there is *no* intrinsic value at all.
      -nB

      --
      whois gawk date unzip strip find touch finger mount join nice man top fsck grep eject more yes exit umount sleep dump
    79. Re:Bitcoin by Sulphur · · Score: 1

      Exactly how is this different than taking my money to the riverboat and laying it down on blackjack?

      The odds?

    80. Re:Bitcoin by shaitand · · Score: 1

      The federal reserve generates the money, not the federal gov't. Although technically they purchase the paper bills from the treasury at cost (which is a few cents) most of the money they 'print' is electronic and the Federal Reserve can 'print' it all day long.

    81. Re:Bitcoin by Surt · · Score: 1

      Indeed, the proton death of the universe is less than 10^37 years away ... why bother with anything. May as well commit suicide, it won't make any difference in the end.

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    82. Re:Bitcoin by iamthelaw · · Score: 5, Informative

      Let's be clear here -- no currency is backed by anything, ever. Sure, "old currencies" were backed by a precious metal. What was that backed by? The answer to "why do currencies have value" is that _nobody knows_. The different schools of economics all have different theories, but macroeconomics is not, despite what people say, a science.

      The theory backing bitcoins is largely based on the (non-mainstream) ideas of Austrian economics; which claim that currencies have value almost entirely because they are scarce, fungible, and useless. That is, their value as an exchange medium far exceeds their value as physical objects. Incidentally, Austrian economics is pretty much the only school of economics to openly acknowledge that it is not a scientific theory.

      Fiat money qualifies easily -- nobody is burning dollars for heat or using them for wallpaper, and the scarcity is guaranteed by the issuing government (although easily abused, and sometimes catastrophically, which is why Austrian's tend not to like fiat currencies).

      Gold qualifies with caveats; it's clearly "money", but it suffers from portability and verifiability problems unless it's minted into a form that is hard to reproduce (the old-old-school approach) or vouchers are issued that can be redeemed for stored gold (the newer-old-school approach). The vouchers then become money in their own right, since their scarcity is tied to the scarcity of the underlying metal, and they're just as fungible and useless. But almost universally, governments (and unscrupulous banks, and sometimes even scrupulous banks) abuse the fact that the holder of a voucher can't see the gold to steal the gold; effectively disconnecting the scarcity of the two. Same goes for silver, though less dramatic.

      It's surprisingly hard to come up with examples of things that are scarce, fungible, and useless that are have not been used as currencies. Even things that violate one of these things is often used as money in a barter sense or in the short term (i.e. cigarettes in prison, wampum among east-coast Native Americans, Facebook game fun-dollars, baseball cards, or the Iraqi Swiss Dinar).

      So this is what Bitcoins are -- they are nothing but pure scarcity, fungibility, and uselessness. The portability is nice, except that transactions are tricky (since there's no real "receipt" mechanism -- verifying that a customer has paid his bill requires funky gymnastics), all use of it is dependent on the accessibility of the internet, and the scarcity is conditional on there being sufficient computing power applied to the problem. But aside from those, it really should work. And the fact that they are worth anything at all (that people are willing to buy them at any non-zero price) is a big deal.

      In terms of price stability, this is a complicated phenomenon; Austrian's generally do not consider price increases to be the same as inflation (a purely semantic distinction). What causes price changes are complicated, and can not be reduced to a simple rule, because at any moment, technological progress and other myriad phenomenon are messing with prices that affect, to a small extent, everyone in the supply chain of every business in the world, and that effect get compounded over time. The most visible form of this is the supply chain of money itself, through the mechanisms of banking and credit.

      So why is the Bitcoin value so volatile? (Now we're in the realm of pure speculation on my part) Because there's no supply chain to keep prices stable. No supply chain of any sort; a restaurant that accepts bitcoins can not buy silverware, or food, or paper cups, or cash register tape, or POS systems, or pay rent in Bitcoins. There are no mechanisms for loaning bitcoins; in either direction -- there are no banks that will pay you to lend them your bitcoins, and no banks that will assess your trustworthiness and income and lend you the money lent to them. So the price floats, while people try to figure out how to provide baseline services (like web hosting), s

    83. Re:Bitcoin by networkBoy · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Speculators are a capacitor. Storing charge when the voltage is above the mean level, dumping charge when below.
      Market manipulators are an external power supply, forcing the mean level up then down.
      If speculators have more resources than the manipulators, the manipulation will fail, otherwise it succeeds.
      -nB

      --
      whois gawk date unzip strip find touch finger mount join nice man top fsck grep eject more yes exit umount sleep dump
    84. Re:Bitcoin by BetterSense · · Score: 1

      Since Bitcoin is a relatively obscure, young, volatile digital currency and the USD is an extremely common, fairly old, and (relatively) stable currency used throughout the world, and adopted by a significant portion of it, then its expected that Bitcoin will be more volatile that USD. The comparison offered was intended to illustrate that the two scenarios are fundamentally similar, if different in scale.

    85. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually the FDIC guarantees your money will be there, the bank loans out 10 times more than they hold so they are guaranteed to not have enough money to give it back to you.

    86. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And what backs the value of sterling silver? Precious metals are just as much a fiat currency as all modern currencies.

    87. Re:Bitcoin by Rakishi · · Score: 1

      Except bitcoin is ultimately a deflationary currency, the optimal long term strategy is to hoard bitcoins. When 90+% of your currency is liquid but not in circulation stability is going to be a dream. When someone decides to cash out their hoard for another asset then you get inflation spikes and prices of everything jump out. You may even get a run on the hoard that causes massive inflation and instability.

    88. Re:Bitcoin by murdocj · · Score: 4, Insightful

      In other news, there are no "sure things" in this world. If Vladimir Putin goes nuts and unleashes Russia's nukes, clean water and non-radioactive food is going to be a worth a whole lot more than dollars, bitcoins, or gold. In the meantime, comparing Bitcoin losing half it's value in 2 days to the chance that you won't get your federally insured deposit money back is absurd.

    89. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      s/speculators/people in first and were able to mine coins with ease.

      One can say that BitCoin is a classic pyramid scheme that rewards the initial people, with money coming in from the lower rungs and the people just starting on.

      I'm amazed it has taken this long for this currency to fail. Guess one is born every minute still.

    90. Re:Bitcoin by BetterSense · · Score: 1

      Just remember that "backed by the full faith and credit of the US government" translates to "We promise to give you all your money, even if we have to take everything you own and devalue the currency itself in order to do it".

    91. Re:Bitcoin by da · · Score: 1

      Very true, but the point about gold is it does have some practical uses, and so people probably _will_ want it in future...

      --
      I reserve the right to be wrong.
    92. Re:Bitcoin by icebraining · · Score: 0

      In a scam the scammers lie and promise profits. The Bitcoin devs are very clear that there's no such thing in their system.

      It's a gamble. Some win, most lose, just like in every lottery or stock exchange.

    93. Re:Bitcoin by a_nonamiss · · Score: 3, Informative

      In Zimbabwe a few years ago, their national currency lost its value at a rate much higher than Bitcoin over the 2 day example provided above. And I'm pretty sure that's even a real country with a president and an army and everything. Currency changes value over time. The amount of time varies based on the stability of whatever is backing the currency.

      So to answer your question, yes, it's directly comparable.

      --
      -Arthur
      Cave ne ante ullas catapultas ambules
    94. Re:Bitcoin by Oligonicella · · Score: 1

      Actually no, it's a matter of we who predicted Bitcoin wasn't worth a shit were correct. Bitcoin won't work on any level at all. Don't for a second think that a 'currency' which has vacillated that much in half a year will be worth anything next year.

      Those who saw it for what it was gutted the believers.

    95. Re:Bitcoin by alexander_686 · · Score: 1

      If money is a store of value, you want to make sure money does not lose it value.

      In the past, when governments have issued to much money they have
              Debased the currency (mixed base metals with gold to make coins)
              Issued fiat money (Germany in the interwar period, Zimbabwe today)
      Etc. In all of these cases inflation ensured.

      If you tie the currency to a commodity the government is denied the easy fix inflation.

      Now, I don’t advocate this. There are real issues when you tie to a commodity. Deflation. Inability to realign the currency when international trade becomes out of whack, etc.

    96. Re:Bitcoin by icebraining · · Score: 1

      A decent example is Brazil - they had an annual inflation rate of 2000%+ in the early 90s.

    97. Re:Bitcoin by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 0

      I have to agree with responder "authalic", and (in this rare instance) Keynes:

      When a major portion of the nation's economy becomes dependent on market speculation, you might as well just throw your money away.

      However, I disagree with Keynes, in part, about the reason that is so.

      Keynesian economics is firmly entrenched in the idea that the money "created" by market and money speculation, and fractional-reserve banking, is real money. But the problem with that idea is that this "created" money can disappear just as fast as it is created, or even faster as we clearly saw back in 2008.

      That is only possible with a fiat currency. With a hard money standard (such as gold), the supply of money is not dependent on the Fed's whim, nor is it nearly as dependent on the market as it is today. Real money cannot be either created or destroyed by irresponsible speculation or monetary policy.

      After nearly 300 years of robust stability and almost completely flat value (and please don't start with horror stories about history; I have seen them before but I have the hard figures to prove it), in the 80 years since we have had Keynesian-style monetary policy, and subsequent fiat currency, the value of our money has depreciated over 96%.

      It is time to end the Fed, and fractional-reserve banking. We have 80 years of proof that it doesn't work. Time to get back on track.

    98. Re:Bitcoin by shawn(at)fsu · · Score: 1

      I've always wondered about this. When money was tied to gold or silver wouldn't devaluation have been a problem if tomorrow some one found a huge freaking gold or silver mine?

      --
      500 dollar reward for tip(s) leading to the arrest of the person(s) who stole my sig.
    99. Re:Bitcoin by Oligonicella · · Score: 1

      You mean "guaranteed" that you'll get back what it says on your balance? Nope, you're not. It's entirely possible that you could go to take it out, and the bank just says "No, sorry, we haven't got it, we gambled with it and lost. Sorry!"

      Please provide an instance of that occurring in your lifetime.

    100. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I don't understand why people feel so strongly that a currency needs to be a commodity first.

      And that sentence right there is the exact reason why you'll never understand why Bitcoin will never take off. And adds more reinforcement to the stereotype that nerds don't understand human interaction at all. Let me give you a quick primer in what "the people" think of this, which is coincidentally why I rarely fit in with the "hardcore" nerd crowds:

      The value of bitcoin is that it can't be counterfeited

      Doesn't help normal people get food on the table. Don't care.

      and they are easy to store

      We have Paypal and online banking. Marginal improvement at best. In fact, since normal people don't like making armored safes and bunkers to store their physical money, they won't like making their computers similarly virtually armored against attacks on their Bitcoin wallets. They'll go right back to trusting it to banks, which will put everything right back to where we are now, just with an added layer of abstraction seemingly invented by a bunch of nerds who really really desperately want to get some value out of their l33t supercomputing rigs they spent so much money on.

      tl;dr: Don't care.

      and transfer.

      We have Paypal and online banking. And paper money can be transfered by — get this — physical human interaction with no smartphones or computers at all! Don't care.

      Also, the production of it is pretty much predefined, so its value cannot be manipulated by a central group of people in the same way as fiat.

      Don't care. Or, actually, borderline lie, given the nerds with the uber processing rigs who can make Bitcoins faster (as well as the early-adopters who got their "riches" when it was easier) will, by definition, control and manipulate the currency by quantity alone.

    101. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      BitCoin is ponzi scheme nothing more. Anyone that doesn't see this is asking to lose REAL money.

    102. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's precisely the problem in Greece: the government there does not have control over their currency (the Euro), and so can't devalue it to do what the GP said.

    103. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You seem not to grasp the concept of "inflation."

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation

    104. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Read your own post.

    105. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >>a few folks who realised they could 'mine' and pay for hardware that way.

      I don't think bitcoin mining even pays for the power consumed by a computer these days.

    106. Re:Bitcoin by JasterBobaMereel · · Score: 1

      No it does not ... $1.60 buys me a loaf of bread today, and will tomorrow (give or take a cent)

      Most currencies are fairly stable (with a few notable exceptions) ... if not there would be huge inflation/deflation, and their isn't

      The stockmarket trades currencies against each other and their exchange rates change more rapidly (but not as rapidly as you suggest), simply because they have different inflation rates, and because of currency speculation ...

      --
      Puteulanus fenestra mortis
    107. Re:Bitcoin by Oligonicella · · Score: 1

      Bitcoin's "value" was based *entirely* on whether people would want it. You realize that gold will have a value in the future regardless, right?

    108. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      People keep saying that BitCoin will have it's value as long as people keep using it and that you're not supposed to get rich by mining. But that isn't even the problem. I transferred some cash to BitCoins and back on Friday and it was paid out to me on Sunday. By the time I got the transfer, it had lost almost half of its value. Now imagine if that would constantly happen with your real money. It wasn't much, but I sure as hell aren't going to use it again. This is why PayPal and other ecurrencies are fixed to real world value - they are stable (as far as it can be), and BitCoin can't ever get as stable as real world currencies (yes I know they aren't that stable, but that just means even bigger problems with BitCoin)

      If the amount of websites which accept Bitcoins become stable, wouldn't the value be more stable? Surely it would right, Thats why we need more promotion.

    109. Re:Bitcoin by Khyber · · Score: 1

      Are you failing to understand the referencing to fundamental economics here, or are you just willfully obtuse?

      Thank god you aren't in charge of our economy, it would have failed even FASTER.

      --
      Still waiting on Serviscope_minor to wake up to fucking reality and realize that Jessica Price isn't going to fuck him.
    110. Re:Bitcoin by CraftyJack · · Score: 1

      So, sorta like a capacitor that explodes every ten years or so? I gotta get me some of those.

    111. Re:Bitcoin by v1 · · Score: 1

      Rolling around naked in it laughing like maniacs...

      I was thinking more that they might be swimming in it

      --
      I work for the Department of Redundancy Department.
    112. Re:Bitcoin by Khyber · · Score: 1

      Yep. Take a UV light to the bill. Note the stripe color, then notice everything else that looks like an organic 'splatter'

      I work in a porn store for a side job. Our bills are filthy.

      --
      Still waiting on Serviscope_minor to wake up to fucking reality and realize that Jessica Price isn't going to fuck him.
    113. Re:Bitcoin by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      I believe the "backing" of bitcoin (in the way you are using it) is the network of miners that validate each transaction.

      People owning a large proportion of bitcoins isn't a problem as long as they have to play by the same rules as everyone else. Well, at least not in the way fiat has a manipulation problem.

      The total supply of "bitcoins" isn't such a big deal because they are divisible to .00000001 coins. So in essence, the total number of indivisible bitcoin units (not sure what they are called) would be 2.1 quadrillion.
      For comparison, world GDP is if we looked at world gdp ($55 trillion) it would be 5.5 quadrillion US cents. The number of actual USD in existence is much much less than this.

      Also I'm not sure I accept the argument that inflation=good, deflation=bad. I mean why would anyone want to base the value of the world economy on debt? That seems alot like a ponzi scheme to me.

    114. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I bought about 10 BTC when they were $1, and earned about another 10 BTC through mining. I completely cashed out at an average price of about $15. Of course I wish I had more, and it is slightly tempting to get back in at $3, but Bitcoin is just too risky to be involved in, in my opinion.

      1. Almost nobody is accepting it for payment for goods and services. Also, it's not easy to convert to USD. Unless that changes, I don't see the value there.

      2. I have serious concerns about the legality. If it gets too big, the U.S. Gov't is not going to be happy about this untraceable currency existing. It seems perfect for money laundering, avoiding taxes, etc.

      3. There is a risk that if you get hacked, someone could steal your whole wallet, and again, it's basically untraceable.

      4. In order to process transactions, you need the entire blockchain loaded. This could be a serious impediment if Bitcoin adoption gets too big.

      5. Point of sale transactions will be too slow to be used with Bitcoin because you need to wait for confirmations to know that the BTC has been legitimately transferred and not double-spent.

      6. At some point the 50 BTC for solving a block will no longer exist, and the only incentive for miners will be collecting transaction fees. Will this be enough of an incentive? Paying transaction fees is optional so most people don't.

      Simply too much uncertainty for me.

    115. Re:Bitcoin by Talderas · · Score: 1

      It wasn't because of how grime was on the average $1 bill?

      --
      "Lack of speed can be overcome. In the worst case by patience." --Znork
    116. Re:Bitcoin by JasterBobaMereel · · Score: 1

      UK economy lost 3.4 billion - Soros gained 1 Billion ...

      UK GDP in 1992 $1,098 trillion

      So even this was a drop in the ocean compared with Bitcoin's losses ...

      --
      Puteulanus fenestra mortis
    117. Re:Bitcoin by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      You just repeated exactly what I said in my second paragraph except less succinctly and you sounded all constipated the whole time.

    118. Re:Bitcoin by Mitchell314 · · Score: 1

      That only applies for current / savings accounts, who's interest rates barely keep up with inflation. If your balance stays still, you're losing money.

      At a rate two hella of a lot lower than bitcoins or any like it. When I deposit my check to the bank, I can be sure it'll have virtually the same buying power until I get my next one.

      --
      I read TFA and all I got was this lousy cookie
    119. Re:Bitcoin by nedlohs · · Score: 1

      You don't use whatever it was that had a 2 day processing/clearance time but didn't lock the price.

      Or a google search says https://www.hellobitcoin.com/faq mentions shorting (of course I know nothing about them and handing money over might be more risky than the risk of bitcoins falling in value).

    120. Re:Bitcoin by sexconker · · Score: 1

      People keep saying that BitCoin will have it's value as long as people keep using it and that you're not supposed to get rich by mining. But that isn't even the problem. I transferred some cash to BitCoins and back on Friday and it was paid out to me on Sunday. By the time I got the transfer, it had lost almost half of its value. Now imagine if that would constantly happen with your real money. It wasn't much, but I sure as hell aren't going to use it again. This is why PayPal and other ecurrencies are fixed to real world value - they are stable (as far as it can be), and BitCoin can't ever get as stable as real world currencies (yes I know they aren't that stable, but that just means even bigger problems with BitCoin)

      You paid one currency to receive Bitcoins and did not immediately make a purchase for a fixed price in Bitcoins.
      Congratulations, you are a speculator.

      Every single fuck who uses the phrase "value of Bitcoins" is a moron. The value of Bitcoins has absolutely NOTHING to do with the prices listed on mtgox and other exchanges. The value of Bitcoins is what goods and services you can get for Bitcoins.

      If all you look at are currency exchanges because you hope to buy and sell bitcoins to make USD or some other currency, then you're absolutely doing it wrong. 99.9% of what the exchanges do never impact the actual Bitcoin network because the transactions never hit the network, they're internal to the exchange. The only transactions that hit the network is when you actually cash out, or when the exchange owner buys up more Bitcoins to cover the volume of the exchange.

      When people cash out, more Bitcoins are fluid, and the network benefits. If you happen to lose money on your speculation, too bad. If you happen to gain money, good for you, sucks for whoever the fuck else on your exchange lost that money.

      The actual value of Bitcoins is completely divorced from what you see on mtgox and other exchanges.

    121. Re:Bitcoin by cjcela · · Score: 1

      That is correct. And that is also the reason bitcoin does not work for everybody.

    122. Re:Bitcoin by Nursie · · Score: 1

      After being called ignorant, stupid and all sorts of other monikers for predicting this, I'm getting a pretty delightful sense of schadenfeude watching the prices tumble.

    123. Re:Bitcoin by bhcompy · · Score: 1

      If I stuff my cash under my mattress it stays still. That's not giving money to speculators. If the bank pays .001%, that's an improvement.

    124. Re:Bitcoin by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      Huh?

      Why cant there be a rich country (with lots of bitcoins) where a soda would cost 5 bitcoins, and a poor country (with very few bitcoins) in which a soda would cost 1 bitcoin?

      Why couldn't a business make money just because they accepted bitcoin?

      additional huh to everything else you said.

    125. Re:Bitcoin by Eunuchswear · · Score: 1

      Bitcoin is the new Papiermark.

      Soon you will need wheelbarrows for your bitcoin.

      --
      Watch this Heartland Institute video
    126. Re:Bitcoin by cjcela · · Score: 2

      Right. And my guess would be that one will think twice before investing in Zimbabwe's currency. Which seems to be the same point that one could make with Bitcoin. It is sort of sad, because I like the idea of a digital currency, but since it is volatile and not widely accepted, its only value right know is in terms of an instrument to speculate with future gains. So as far as I can tell, bitcoin is as good as 'investing' money in a Las Vegas casino.. or maybe worse, since casinos are somewhat regulated by the government.

    127. Re:Bitcoin by NotAGoodNickname · · Score: 1

      Like the German Mark? At one point during WWII one USD equaled 4,000,000,000,000 Marks. Yet the Mark was still used 50 years later and was considered one of the most stable currencies in the world before it was replaced by the Euro.

    128. Re:Bitcoin by defaria · · Score: 1

      Most currencies today are not backed by anything! Wake up and smell the coffee!

    129. Re:Bitcoin by sexconker · · Score: 1

      You mean "guaranteed" that you'll get back what it says on your balance? Nope, you're not. It's entirely possible that you could go to take it out, and the bank just says "No, sorry, we haven't got it, we gambled with it and lost. Sorry!"

      Please provide an instance of that occurring in your lifetime.

      You joking bro?
      Did you forget about the $7,000,000,000?
      What do you think happened?

      Some shitdick decided to pull a Wile E. Coyote and run off the cliff with bad investments, and a few years later they finally looked down.
      The bottom line was they did NOT have the money they said they had. The "investments" lost their value because the fucks at the other end cashed out.
      Real property lost its "value" as well, because it was already built and developed and sold, but people were simply unable to pay for it.
      Regular checking and savings accounts were unfunded as well, and the banks said they needed a fucking bailout or they'd have no liquidity.
      And the trolls in Washington gave them money as a fucking handout instead of letting them fail, covering the accounts through FDIC, and then dismantling the dead banks and seizing their assets to recover that money.

    130. Re:Bitcoin by Marcika · · Score: 1

      You have to think of it in context - the 1.5tn inflation loss on the lent central bank money enabled China to keep its currency cheap and stable. This enabled them to attract FDI and know-how to build exporting factories, which increased the aggregate wealth of China and the Chinese from $4-8tn to about $20tn in the same ten years. A worthwhile investment.

    131. Re:Bitcoin by TheRaven64 · · Score: 1

      Not indefinitely. Gold is hard to synthesise - you need huge amounts of energy to do so - but in a society with abundant surplus energy it would have no value. In 10,000 years, I doubt that you'll be able to trade a van full of gold for one original idea...

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    132. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Gives me a return and guarentees my money will be available?

      No, that's the government that does that. The bank takes your money and puts it all on red.

    133. Re:Bitcoin by Chris+Burke · · Score: 4, Insightful

      You mean Bitcoin is directly comparable to the currency of an unstable currency like Zimbabwe's that I also would never dream of transferring any of my comparatively rock-stable $US to.

      I do believe you are completely correct in that.

      --

      The enemies of Democracy are
    134. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      stock market and mutual funds is a better example.

    135. Re:Bitcoin by CAIMLAS · · Score: 1

      I was looking into it a while back to see what I might do with a handful of high powered video cards. That is, until I determined that it's basically manufacturing nothing out of thin air and assigning an arbitrary (though consistent) value to it.

      It's really no different than a fiat currency, in practice. A fiat currency from a nowhere country. In theory, it's better - like gold or something like that - but nobody uses it, and it's derived from a fairly obscure source. It's a fad, IMO.

      More power to people making money off of it, though. I really don't understand how or why that works for them.

      --
      ~/ssh slashdot.org ssh: connect to host slashdot.org port 22: too many beers
    136. Re:Bitcoin by Lumpy · · Score: 0

      You spelled PONZI wrong...

      --
      Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
    137. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But what is the intrinsic worth of a pound of sterling silver, or moreover gold? Just because you have something in your hand that you can melt and turn into something else doesn't necessarily imply that has the worth that you think it does. Gold is worth what gold is worth because we say it is.

    138. Re:Bitcoin by TheRaven64 · · Score: 1

      I believe the "backing" of bitcoin (in the way you are using it) is the network of miners that validate each transaction.

      That's not any kind of backing. Currency is backed by X if you believe that X has value independent of the currency and if there is a guarantee that the currency can be exchanged for X. X can be gold, the ability to pay taxes, oil, the promise of one second of CPU time, whatever. Without this, bitcoin has no value.

      Even the tokens you get in an amusement park have more value. They are backed by the promise that you can use them in rides. You agree that going on rides has value (or you wouldn't be there in the first place) and the park guarantees that they will honour the exchange.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    139. Re:Bitcoin by tripleevenfall · · Score: 1

      The FDIC typically makes your money available the next day, when a bank is closed down.

    140. Re:Bitcoin by Culture20 · · Score: 1

      Also I'm not sure I accept the argument that inflation=good, deflation=bad.

      I didn't until recently. Mild inflation discourages hoarding of cash and encourages a more active economy. Once I had enough money to worry about it's value deteriorating, I realized I wanted to buy hard assets with it.

    141. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      WHAT!? Regulations foster investment and economic activity by dampening some of the wild fluctuations that might happen on a completely open, free market? You must be new here.

    142. Re:Bitcoin by Lumpy · · Score: 2

      There is.

      Coca Cola in the USA on average costs $1.25US a can from a vending machine or singles from a store, my experience.

      A superior Coca Cola made with sugar instead of corn syrup on average costs $0.75 a glass bottle from the stores I went to when I was in Mexico City for 2 months, one small store had them for 9 pesos instead of the common 10 peso price I was seeing. When I was there 10 pesos was about $0.75US

      In china I have heard it's even cheaper but in the smaller cool cans.

      --
      Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
    143. Re:Bitcoin by Asic+Eng · · Score: 1

      I believe the "backing" of bitcoin (in the way you are using it) is the network of miners that validate each transaction.

      More like the community of users - assurance that it's real is only part of it. That community is too small though, so volatility must be high. Which is exactly what we are seeing and will continue to see.

      People owning a large proportion of bitcoins isn't a problem as long as they have to play by the same rules as everyone else.

      It means a few people can influence it's value dramatically - i.e. what you asserted couldn't happen. (But already has in the past.)

      Good to know bitcoins are so divisible, thanks.

      Also I'm not sure I accept the argument that inflation=good, deflation=bad

      Well, we've already tried that. Deflationary currencies don't work. Inflationary currencies have their own problems, but you can't address those by replacing them with something which has already been shown to fail.

    144. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      lol

    145. Re:Bitcoin by Chris+Burke · · Score: 1

      Thank you for this breath of fresh, sane, air.

      --

      The enemies of Democracy are
    146. Re:Bitcoin by Lumpy · · Score: 1

      Which is why I call all the survivalists that are converting their cash into gold complete idiots. It's at historic high's and will crash down within a few years. and in the SHTF event that the nutjobs like to throw around, your 1 ounce of gold will NOT be worth $1200.00US but probably worth a loaf of bread or bag of apples.

      Perceived value based on speculation is always inflated badly. IT's why oil prices are out of control, Gold is spiraling up and why a lot of people lost money on real estate because it was speculated up to the pooing point.

      --
      Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
    147. Re:Bitcoin by DavidTC · · Score: 1

      I don't understand why buying part of a company is easier than buying a car.

      I sometimes thing the sanest way to fix the problem would be to have companies owned for a quarter. Each quarter, their quarterly report comes out, and people can put in bids for selling or buying stock. (Sorta like a silent auction.) After one week, all transactions go through at exactly the same time, and everyone owns part of that company for another entire quarter.

      Right now what's going on is not 'Buy a company because it is making a profit, and I expect a cut of the profits in the form of dividends.' (Which is the fricking point of owning stock.) It is 'I'll hold this stock for a bit and then sell it for a profit.'.

      And that's the thought of the owners. Who, of course, select the board of directors, who select the CEO. Who then, knowing why he was hired, directs companies away from making a profit, and into manipulating the market just long enough that they can sell their stock.

      It seems really surreal to me that, despite being fairly liberal, I'm having to sit and argue that companies should attempt to make profits. At least then they'd have employees, instead of having layoffs that bumps the stock price for a few weeks and guts the company.

      --
      If corporations are people, aren't stockholders guilty of slavery?
    148. Re:Bitcoin by sexconker · · Score: 1

      No, the real problem is that bitcoin is not backed by anything. Old currencies were backed by a precious metal. If you had one Pound Sterling, then the Bank of England would give you one pound of sterling silver. Modern fiat currencies are backed by a promise from the government that they will accept them in payment of taxes. Bitcoin was backed by some pointless computation.

      If a bitcoin had been a promise to do some computation work in the future, then it may have had some value, because people need computational work done. For example, something like Amazon's compute cloud could potentially back a currency, because the service of running a VM for some number of CPU seconds is fungible and - importantly - people actually want it. No one wants the work that is done to generate a bitcoin, so the coin itself is worthless. Its value is based entirely on the premise that other people will want it in the future, but that's just a pyramid scheme.

      Accepted in payment of taxes? What a joke. That's not value. That's the screw they turn to get you to accept the currency (and their control of it) being foisted upon you. EVERY currency is based on the premise that someone will want it in the future. If you want a "promise" that your Bitcoins can be used for something, then read the fucking manual. Bitcoins are used to pay transaction fees to get transactions processed quickly. Otherwise you can wait days. There, they're used for something. And did you forget about how those coins were generated? When you mine for coins and find a block, you are building up the block chain. The block chain is the backbone of the Bitcoin network. Mining bitcoins is equivalent to paving roads and laying fiber.

      And you fundamentally have no understanding of Bitcoin.
      The total maximum amount of Bitcoins is fixed at 21,000,000. There will never, ever be more. There is less now because we haven't mined it all. There could be less if people delete their Bitcoins.
      Just like gold there is a fixed maximum amount. Unlike gold, we know that amount. Just like any currency, its "value" is only what goods and services people are willing to give you for it. Morons like you always try to peg the value to a currency you're familiar with and thus you look at mtgox and other exchanges and think speculative external markets are the same thing as the Bitcoin network.

      And before you try to spout horseshit about Bitcoin being a resource, that number is inifinitely divisible. You can have .0000001 BTC. And future clients can extend it to .00000000000000000000000000000001 BTC if the need arises. If you try to claim Bitcoins are a resource because of the fixed amount, then you are literally claiming that a number is a resource.

    149. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I sure as hell aren't going to use it again

      You isn't? What am you planning to do in the future?

    150. Re:Bitcoin by Zironic · · Score: 1

      Though Keynesian economics consider the 96% money devaluation a good thing since it promotes investment.

    151. Re:Bitcoin by hedwards · · Score: 0

      That's completely different. If you buy a share in a company you ultimately own a very small piece of the company, and unless they go bankrupt, you have something to show for it. Bitcoins are a bit different in that you don't own anything, they're not provided by a reputable source and they're effectively just a newer version of a ponzi scheme.

      With international exchanges it's a bit more complex, but they typically only allow you to exchange currency that's legal tender in some nation, not bitcoins or other imaginary currency.

    152. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'll close this rant with one more comment; the idea that money has value because it is used for taxation is laughable -- Euro's have value in the US despite the fact that the US will not accept taxes in them.

      Certainly in the US Euros are not legal tender for taxes, but they are in Europe which is why they have intrinsic value. The intrinsic value of a currency doesn't disappear just because you cross a border.

    153. Re:Bitcoin by Nursie · · Score: 1

      Was it in any way the same 'Mark' though, or a renewed and relaunched currency?

    154. Re:Bitcoin by Culture20 · · Score: 1

      Only locally near the mine. It took a while to mine the gold, a while for that mined gold to spread out from the area it was mined in.

    155. Re:Bitcoin by Surt · · Score: 1

      Right, but during our most recent banking crisis, they weren't able to deliver on that due to the volume of claims. Who knows how much worse it would get if the volume of claims hit 10x higher.

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    156. Re:Bitcoin by Rockoon · · Score: 2

      The federal government, in the case of America, cannot print money. It can borrow money, even from those with the power to print it, but it cannot print money itself nor can it order the printing of money. Period.

      Come back when you know whats actually going on in the world.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    157. Re:Bitcoin by nedlohs · · Score: 1

      Given it was one of things I talked about, I suspect your the one with the difficulty of grasping things.

    158. Re:Bitcoin by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 2, Informative

      That's their theory. Shared by nobody else. And there's good reason for that: history proves it false. (Actually it's pretty amazing to most people when they learn just how often Keynesian economic theory contradicts the actual history of events.)

      It's also skewed, because even if it is true that inflation promotes investment (debatable), it erodes the savings (irrefutable) that are necessary for a robust economy. So the relatively affluent (who have money to invest) benefit, the relatively poor (who are merely trying to put away some money for a rainy day) suffer.

      As I mentioned before, there are horror stories about the "swings" in U.S. (and colony) economies in the past. But those swings were fundamentally different than the booms and busts we see today, because the money supply remained virtually constant over time, and purchasing power always returned to its former value after any inflationary bubble (which primarily occurred when government borrowed money to finance wars). You could bury money in your back yard, and your great-great-great-grandson could dig it up 100 years later and buy as much flour with it as you could.

      Whereas for the last 80 years (it's true, you can chart it... it makes for a very alarming chart), the purchasing power of our money has been on a steady decline. It has never, even once, gone back to its former value.

      The graph of purchasing power over the last 300+ years has three major kinks in it, each one representing an acceleration of inflation. They correspond EXACTLY to three events in our economic history, down to the precise year: (1) the creation of the Fed, (2) the removal of the gold standard, (3) the abolition of the last vestiges of a monetary standard by Nixon, in 1971.

    159. Re:Bitcoin by Chris+Burke · · Score: 1

      It's a gamble. Some win, most lose, just like in every lottery or stock exchange.

      You mean in any stock exchange crash.

      For many years, I and most other investors saw the values of our portfolios -- in particular retirement -- rise in value well in excess of inflation. We all "won". It's only in the market crash that most lost and only a few -- who speculated that the crash would occur -- won. However, if the market recovers, then in the long term my retirement fund will likely still have substantially increased value and I'll have still won -- just like people who rode through the 1987 crash.

      Your observation may hold true of the subset of speculators and day-traders.

      The implication is that BitCoin is 'just like' an unstable crash-prone stock exchange, or a stock exchange where everyone is a speculator like it or not.

      I'm getting rather annoyed with everyone who seems to think that because there's no fundamental categorical difference between BitCoin and any other item used for the exchange of goods and services, that there are no quantitative or qualitative differences at all.

      There are.

      --

      The enemies of Democracy are
    160. Re:Bitcoin by stanjo74 · · Score: 1

      Yes, but the premise is stronger or weaker for different currencies. In the case of bitcoin, the premise was very weak.

    161. Re:Bitcoin by Yunzil · · Score: 5, Funny

      Great marketing campaign. "Bitcoins: Hey, it's not as bad as Zimbabwe!"

      So to answer your question, yes, it's directly comparable.

      No, it isn't.

    162. Re:Bitcoin by Yunzil · · Score: 2

      You have heard of the FDIC, right?

    163. Re:Bitcoin by Surt · · Score: 1

      So your claim then is that the amount in circulation is unchanging, or that the federal government has no influence over the amount in circulation? And you also claim that it's impossible for congress to pass an amendment ordering the treasury department to literally print money in the event of a banking emergency?

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    164. Re:Bitcoin by Zironic · · Score: 1

      Saving for a rainy day is why insurance exists and saving through investment doesn't really require any notable amount of money.

      Talking about inflation as if it was horrible is hard when economists consider it a non-issue unless it goes hyper.

      What exactly is the benefit of allowing people to bury money in their backyard and have it retain their value? Having people physically remove value from the economy is objectively bad, it's much healthier to have them invest it in a index fund and leave it there for 100 years instead.

    165. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      guarentees my money will be available?

      Does it? You've either got a very special deal with your bank... or you're wrong.

      IF you get there first - then you get your money out. If you're last in line on the day of the crash then you're getting nothing pal.

    166. Re:Bitcoin by JDG1980 · · Score: 1

      You mean "guaranteed" that you'll get back what it says on your balance? Nope, you're not. It's entirely possible that you could go to take it out, and the bank just says "No, sorry, we haven't got it, we gambled with it and lost. Sorry!"

      Try googling FDIC. It's designed expressly to prevent scenarios like this from happening. It's only been around since 1933, so I understand you might not have heard of it yet...

    167. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Gives me a return and guarantees my money will be available?

      The government provides the insurance. All your bank does is pay the premiums. The return is something that it does actually do for you, though just barely.

    168. Re:Bitcoin by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      and in the SHTF event that the nutjobs like to throw around, your 1 ounce of gold will NOT be worth $1200.00US but probably worth a loaf of bread or bag of apples.

      Doubtful. That ounce of gold won't keep you alive. So it's going to be tough to convince anyone else to give you something that will keep a person alive in exchange for a shiny rock.

      In the aftermath of the apocalypse, we'll revert to a barter economy. Eventually, enough of a society will re-form for currency to work again. But there's no reason to think that currency will be precious metal. The only advantage gold and silver have is their scarcity makes counterfeiting more difficult.

    169. Re:Bitcoin by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      Sure, "old currencies" were backed by a precious metal. What was that backed by? The answer to "why do currencies have value" is that _nobody knows_.

      Currencies have value because they can be exchanged for goods or services. Which is another way of saying currencies have value because people believe they have value. It's all an illusion, but it works very, very nicely as long as everyone plays along.

    170. Re:Bitcoin by GrumpySteen · · Score: 1

      > You may have lost money on it, but somebody gained.

      Absolutely false.

      If I bought $1000 worth of Bitcoins, then changed my mind about having them and sold them to TechLA, I would have my original $1000. When the value crashed by 90%, TechLA's Bitcoins suddenly became worth $100. Nobody gained $900 in that exchange.

      The only way someone else gains is if TechLA sells those Bitcoins at $100 and their value rebounds to $1000. That has not happened.

    171. Re:Bitcoin by History's+Coming+To · · Score: 2

      1: That's just the US (although I agree there are similar things worldwide), in the UK we've now got several banks effectively owned by the taxpayer because their losses were too big for their insurance to cover, and the government had to buy them out to provide the capital to cover the banks losses and/or customer's money.

      2: That only protects the first $250,000 per individual, per bank.

      3: Insurance companies, even federal level ones, can also go bust.

      Yes, the FDIC or equivalent helps, but it's very far from a guarantee that your money is safe.

      --
      Please consider this account deleted, I just can't be bothered with the spam anymore.
    172. Re:Bitcoin by NotAGoodNickname · · Score: 1

      That makes no sense. Bitcoin is just a currency, like any other, except that it can't be inflated. No currency "takes into account real world variables". The value of any currency is variable. Bitcoin is much more variable but that is because it isn't heavily used, just like every other non-widely used currency in the world.

    173. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Also, a currency is only as valuable as the things you can buy with it. I think as more merchants accept Bitcoin the value of the BitCoin will become more stable because it will actually have value insofar as it is pinned to tangible goods and services. Otherwise it is, as you say, just speculation moving the needle up and down.

    174. Re:Bitcoin by History's+Coming+To · · Score: 1

      I'll give you three from the last few years: Northern Rock, RBS, Lloyds TSB. They had to go to the government and explain they couldn't pay out if a large number of their customers wanted their money back.

      --
      Please consider this account deleted, I just can't be bothered with the spam anymore.
    175. Re:Bitcoin by Rockoon · · Score: 1

      So your claim then is that the amount in circulation is unchanging, or that the federal government has no influence over the amount in circulation? And you also claim that it's impossible for congress to pass an amendment ordering the treasury department to literally print money in the event of a banking emergency?

      Once you have decided that the rules will change or dont matter, you can make all sorts of silly bullshit claims. The fact remains that our federal government is not in control of the money supply.

      I understand that you didnt know this, and I understand that the error that your ignorance generated is embarrassing to you. Instead of venturing into the land of make believe in order to continue to justify hastily made conclusions based on wrong information, you should instead re-evaluate your conclusion.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    176. Re:Bitcoin by iluvcapra · · Score: 1

      the purchasing power of our money has been on a steady decline.

      But the purchasing power of wages has been steadily increasing or remaining constant. The value of a dollar over 80 years would only mean something to somebody that earned a dollar 80 years ago and kept it in his mattress. The whole point of the thing is to prevent that sort of thing, because it allows you do extremely artificial things like retain wealth at zero cost or risk, and when everybody saves money that way you have a recession.

      Re-read Krugman's "Capitol Hill Babysitting Co-op." You need to dispose of the paradox of thrift before you can seriously defend hard money. If you want to bury wealth for your children, bury gold, don't advocate price controls on commodities like gold, which is, in the end, what hard money is about.

      --
      Don't blame me, I voted for Baltar.
    177. Re:Bitcoin by reverseengineer · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The issue with that example is that there wasn't continuity of currency throughout that whole period. The infamous "papiermark" of 1923 was converted into the rentenmark of 1924 -at an exchange rate of a trillion to one, and then into the Reichsmark. After WWII, the Reichsmark was exchanged for the Deutsche Mark (in W. Germany at least) and that was your stable currency. The DM can even today be exchanged for euros, though I'd imagine most DM are out of circulation. The point is that other than the DM/ euro changeover, the transitions have been limited time arrangements, in one case backed with a military occupation. What came out of each was basically a new currency. You can turn in that shoebox of DM from 1994 and get crisp new euros at a rate of about 0.5 euro for each, but you can't exchange a quadrillion 1923 papiermarks for 500 trillion euro. Different money.

      --
      "FDA staff reviewers expressed concern about the number of patients who were left out of the study because they died."
    178. Re:Bitcoin by Surt · · Score: 1

      Sorry you lost the argument. I know it's upsetting. That you didn't understand what someone wrote can be embarassing, but really, it's ok, it happens to the best of us.

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    179. Re:Bitcoin by DrXym · · Score: 1

      Damn and I was just about to sink my money into a corrupt, bankrupt African dictatorship.

    180. Re:Bitcoin by bsDaemon · · Score: 1

      I think you're confusing this with the Great Depression. The problem right now is that the banks have plenty of money, they just won't lend it. That means businesses can't get lines of credit to increase payroll, which means low hiring, high unemployment, etc. People can't (in some cases won't) get/use credit to make purchases, which means lower demand for products, so less reason for businesses to hire anyway.

      The FDIC ensures that, up to a certain level, you'll get the face value of your money back in the case the bank goes under/gets robbed/whatever. We have that because of what happened in the 20s/30s We do not, however, actually have that problem now.

    181. Re:Bitcoin by Nursie · · Score: 1

      So in order to make a simple payment one must set up not only a bitcoin transfer but also a short position to maintain value? At what cost?

      And it's stopped sounding so simple now.

    182. Re:Bitcoin by blueg3 · · Score: 1

      The only way you could get close to a 50% loss on the S&P is buying in October 2007 and selling in March 2009.

    183. Re:Bitcoin by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1, Interesting

      "Saving for a rainy day is why insurance exists and saving through investment doesn't really require any notable amount of money."

      "Saving for a rainy day" is NOT why insurance exists. Insurance is, by definition, a hedge against disasters. Two different things. Further, insurance does not pay out as much as it takes in (simple elementary-school math), so it doesn't even come close to meeting the definition of "savings". Nor does it address inflation.

      "Saving through investment" is a contradiction in terms. Investment, by definition, does require available money, whether that money is surplus or borrowed. In neither case does it, either, meet the definition of "savings". Savings represent a pool of capital that can be invested, but they are two different things.

      "Talking about inflation as if it was horrible is hard when economists consider it a non-issue unless it goes hyper."

      You completely missed two of my points: (1) that only Keynesian economists (well, Chartalists, too, but nobody takes them seriously) consider inflation to be a good thing; other schools of economics disagree, and (2) despite Keynesian theory, history does not show inflation to be a good thing.

      "What exactly is the benefit of allowing people to bury money in their backyard and have it retain their value?"

      This is the third point you missed (as I already mentioned above): inflation erodes the value of savings. Even Keynesian economists admit this. If you don't understand why erosion of savings is a bad thing, try being a retired person on a fixed income for a while. It will become very clear to you.

      "Having people physically remove value from the economy is objectively bad, it's much healthier to have them invest it in a index fund and leave it there for 100 years instead."

      Savings does not "remove money from the economy"! It represents accumulation of capital that can be invested. The alternative is investing only borrowed money. Again, even Keynesians admit that the amount of savings in an economy is a valid indicator of health, as a pool of interest-free, investable capita. But Keynesians tend to give it less weight than other economists do.

      As for investing in an index fund: as we clearly saw in 2008, with a fiat currency system, money invested in the market can literally disappear overnight. Hardly what I would consider to be a "secure" investment to leave around for posterity.

    184. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No one who actually has a good grasp of macroeconomics actually has a good grasp of macroeconomic processes. There's a reason Ben Bernanke (sp?) always seems to be speaking in riddles: Macroeconomics is a VERY immature science. We're still at a point where even the most complicated computing models offer little to nothing more than the simplest macro models. It's as bad or worse than modeling weather patterns.

      Having said that, the 'idea' behind bitcoins seems, at first bluff, believable enough. Compute some difficult to compute thing and the result somehow counts as currency. It's as close to being a fiat currency as any non-fiat currency can be (read it backward and it still makes sense). So...why not just stick with a fiat currency (or set of currencies) that the entire world already use?

      I think that's the crux of the bitcoin problem. (Also, there are compelling arguments to be made in support of central banks. Look up the Solow growth model, for instance, or Keynesian economics. Removing any central authority from a currency is, itself, a long term monetary policy that may or may not be desirable.)

    185. Re:Bitcoin by jfengel · · Score: 1

      It may be a paradise for short-sellers at the moment, but in an efficient market that won't last long. You're competing with other short-sellers to try to determine the "true" value of the commodity, and the last one(s) in take it in the shorts. It's even possible that a rush of short-sellers could drive the price below the "true" market value, and you could lose money.

      Now, it's hard to define what the true market value of a Bitcoin might be, since it's not backed by anything at all. At least a government fiat currency is backed by the fact that the currency will be used to pay your taxes. It's not impossible to invent a medium of exchange out of whole cloth; that's effectively what gold is. (Gold does have some uses, but for most of history it was just decorative, and the value of a decoration is fickle.)

      Still, the high price of Bitcoins was pure speculation, people bidding against each other for a demand that might some day materialize. And given that they were pretty freaking smug about it, I'm not too sorry to see them lose a bunch of money on it.

    186. Re:Bitcoin by iamthelaw · · Score: 1

      You're just defining currency to mean something that can be exchanged for goods and services. I don't think anyone is arguing that that is the meaning of the word. The question is, what makes a thing, or a concept, a currency? If the theory is "shared delusion" then that's fine but offers little power.

      The real question remains -- are there things that are scarce, fungible, and useless, that do not serve as currencies?

    187. Re:Bitcoin by Smallpond · · Score: 1

      Dell beat you to it.

    188. Re:Bitcoin by yurtinus · · Score: 1

      If the FDIC is in that situation, we are already in the middle of a much greater economic collapse and availability of your money in the bank is going to be a bit lower priority than say... the availability of food to eat.

      --
      +1 Disagree
    189. Re:Bitcoin by pclminion · · Score: 1

      Modern fiat currencies are backed by a promise from the government that they will accept them in payment of taxes.

      Only partially so. Modern currencies are also backed by the fact that currency traders are willing to exchange them for other currencies. If you consider currency X to be "backed" by something, and there is a liquid market which turns currency Y into currency X, then currency Y is just as legitimate as currency X because you can exchange them at will.

      Bitcoin was backed by some pointless computation.

      Bitcoin is backed by the fact that a dollar market exists for it. If somebody is willing to exchange bitcoins for dollars, how can it be less "real" than the dollar? More volatile, definitely, but just as real, until the day that you can no longer exchange it.

    190. Re:Bitcoin by Surt · · Score: 1

      We actually came close to this in the recent banking crisis, but there wasn't much threat to the food supply.

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    191. Re:Bitcoin by iamthelaw · · Score: 1

      Well, clearly the value of a currency doesn't disappear just because you cross a border. You and I disagree on why that is the case. It strikes me that collecting taxes in a currency is an impediment to its adoption, rather than facilitating it. That's why barter transactions are taxed based on their value in the local currency, and why legal tender laws were passed to force people to except these currencies. Because otherwise, people would never touch the currency so that they could legally avoid paying taxes.

    192. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Huh?

      Why cant there be a rich country (with lots of bitcoins) where a soda would cost 5 bitcoins, and a poor country (with very few bitcoins) in which a soda would cost 1 bitcoin?

      International trade. If X is cheap in country Y (with respect to country Z), then only transaction costs (tariffs, physical transportation costs, etc) keep arbitrators from buying X in country Y and selling X in country Z at a profit. Often, the only time prices fall out of sync between locations are when the underlying 'good' is hard to move (real estate and land values are a great example - you simply can't buy a piece of Hong Kong and relocate it to New York City).

      But there are many situations where this situation doesn't occur. The Economist, for example, periodically releases a "big mac index" where they compare the relative prices of a big mac across the globe. That 'index' gives you a decent, layman's view of the affects of global trade on prices across the world.

      I'm ignoring the bitcoin part of your question...bitcoins are just another currency (if they can be placed on the mantel of 'currencies of the world', I'd argue they're not and I doubt they ever will be.)

      Why couldn't a business make money just because they accepted bitcoin?

      Probably just the mechanics of the deal. So I want to buy something in bitcoins...I have to convert my cash (whatever currency it is) to "bitcoins" somehow. I then have to locate a business that accepts bitcoins as a form of payment. If I'm lucky, they have what I'm looking for and at a competitive price for what I could pay with my own, original currency. Because of the lack of business in bitcoins, though, it's doubtful that much arbitrage takes place to keep prices stable (across time and across currencies) in bitcoin-land.

      Other than that, I'm sure there are companies and individuals making real money out of bitcoins. Just be a bitcoin 'bank'. Bitcoins don't appear to be all that liquid, so there's tons of room for volatility in bitcoin values.

      Frankly, that's a good way to put the problem of the bitcoin. Lack of liquidity. Cash is cash because IT IS THE MOST LIQUID ASSET. An economy without its cash being the most liquid asset is one of:

      -experiencing horrible deflation (this is a life threatening problem for an economy)
      -going to be EXTREMELY sluggish

      It's unthinkable...

    193. Re:Bitcoin by DrXym · · Score: 1

      The "it's a gamble" excuse is simply a cop-out. Every participant in a pyramid / ponzi / pump & dump probably thinks it's a gamble too but the reality is the scheme is set up to fail and it is in the interest of early comers to boost the stock so they can exit with a profit to the detriment of later comers. It is a scam pure and simple.

    194. Re:Bitcoin by Pentium100 · · Score: 1

      I believe the "backing" of bitcoin (in the way you are using it) is the network of miners that validate each transaction.

      But this is only because Bitcoin needs it. Cash does not need it (as counterfeiting it is quite difficult), bank transfers do not need distributed computing (and you pay the bank when you make a transfer).

      The total supply of "bitcoins" isn't such a big deal because they are divisible to .00000001 coins.
      Also I'm not sure I accept the argument that inflation=good, deflation=bad.

      Well, if you make 0.00000001 coins equal to 1 US cent, my bitcoins will be worth more than a million USD. Now way I'm spending them now, since in the future they will be worth so much more.

      The best currency would be the one that is stable or has a very small inflation.

    195. Re:Bitcoin by Talderas · · Score: 1

      There are some tasks where silver and gold outperform other metals or materials at the task. Silver conducts electricity better than copper but the gain is not worth the extra cost of using silver over copper in most cases. Their usage as a currency makes them too valuable for those uses.

      --
      "Lack of speed can be overcome. In the worst case by patience." --Znork
    196. Re:Bitcoin by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1, Interesting

      "But the purchasing power of wages has been steadily increasing or remaining constant."

      No, it hasn't. Not even close. Get yourself a copy of "How Much Is That In Real Money?", by John McClusker. It has hard figures about purchasing power of the dollar over about 300 years. It ends in the late 1990s, but you can easily find figures for more recent years.

      Chart that against wages. You will find that in recent decades, ever since the boom after WWII in fact, wages have not kept pace with real inflation.

      Keep in mind that many economists will tell you that the government's official numbers for inflation are not realistic.

      As far as I am concerned, anybody who takes Krugman seriously hasn't read their history. For years, Krugman has been tossing around economic theory that even very RECENT history (2008) proves wrong. Just one example: historian Thomas Woods easily refutes Krugman's statements from back around 2001.

      The fact is that Krugman, over the years, has ended up with egg all over his face time, and time, and time again. If the Times weren't constantly printing him, I doubt many people would take him seriously.

      The whole worth of a theory is its ability to predict. The whole worth of a prognosticator is HIS ability to predict. Which means that Keynesian economics and Paul Krugman are both failures.

    197. Re:Bitcoin by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 0

      By the way: a hard money standard is a value definition for the dollar, not the other way around. A gold standard, and "price controls on gold", are not even remotely the same things. In fact that is exactly backward.

    198. Re:Bitcoin by cyn1c77 · · Score: 1

      The only way you could get close to a 50% loss on the S&P is buying in October 2007 and selling in March 2009.

      It's not the "only" way. Look up the performance of NFLX over the past 3 months.

    199. Re:Bitcoin by Dare+nMc · · Score: 1

      half its value compared to the USD. If you wanted to buy some acid from Silk Road tomorrow that costs 50 bitcoins last weak, and costs 50 bitcoins tomorrow, and all you had was USD, you would be pissed at the loss of value of the US currency if bitcoins go from $2 to $3 tomorrow. It all depends on what you want to buy, and what they are willing to accept as payment. Since silk road doesn't take Paypal...

    200. Re:Bitcoin by blueg3 · · Score: 1

      I hadn't heard that Netflix had replaced the S&P.

    201. Re:Bitcoin by Bucky24 · · Score: 1

      Is it the FDIC that pays back the accounts? I always thought it was just a law that the bank had to keep enough cash on hand to pay back all accounts up to $100,000.

      --
      All the world's a CPU, and all the men and women merely AI agents
    202. Re:Bitcoin by im_thatoneguy · · Score: 1

      And neither does the FDIC. The FDIC sort of promises you can get some of your money back, eventually, but how long eventually is, and whether or not your money has any worth if they have to go on a printing spree ...

      'Eventually' according to the placards in my bank say usually within 2 business days.

    203. Re:Bitcoin by cyn1c77 · · Score: 1

      No it does not ... $1.60 buys me a loaf of bread today, and will tomorrow (give or take a cent)

      Most currencies are fairly stable (with a few notable exceptions) ... if not there would be huge inflation/deflation, and their isn't

      The stockmarket trades currencies against each other and their exchange rates change more rapidly (but not as rapidly as you suggest), simply because they have different inflation rates, and because of currency speculation ...

      The price fluctuations still exist for food items, they just have a longer timescale (on the order of months). Your bank savings account is static, but many other money storage schemes are not. Most people who have more than a few thousand dollars invest their savings in CDs, bonds, or the stock market so that their money does not lose value relative to inflation. Most retirement accounts (401K and even pensions) are directly or indirectly tied to the stock market performance and their value can vary quite significantly over a short time if they are not well diversified. (The GGP's bitcoin money loss was due to poor diversification of your money in a volatile fund.) So when a country's economy fluctuates, you can expect both the prices of items and the amount of money available to most individuals to also vary.

      None of this is a new concept to someone who has been maintaining their finances and planning their retirement for a few decades. I assume that you have not had the pleasure of dealing with such tasks yet based on your overly simplistic example on the price of bread. Think of it as something to look forward to.

    204. Re:Bitcoin by DMUTPeregrine · · Score: 1

      Except that in the vast majority of cases the manipulators and the speculators are the exact same people.

      --
      Not a sentence!
    205. Re:Bitcoin by egamma · · Score: 1

      The federal government, in the case of America, cannot print money.

      Oh really? Let's take a look at the good ole Constitution.

      Section 8 - Powers of Congress To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures;

      Sure looks like they can print money to me...

    206. Re:Bitcoin by SeaFox · · Score: 1

      A superior Coca Cola made with sugar instead of corn syrup on average costs $0.75 a glass bottle from the stores I went to when I was in Mexico City for 2 months, one small store had them for 9 pesos instead of the common 10 peso price I was seeing. When I was there 10 pesos was about $0.75US

      In china I have heard it's even cheaper but in the smaller cool cans.

      You don't have to go to Mexico. I drink it right now. I've actually stopped drinking the American one (for regular Coke at least). There are at least three local supermarkets (two part of regional chains) that sell Mexcian Coca-cola for $0.95-$1.00 a glass bottle where I am in Kansas. One doesn't even keep them segregated with the "Hispanic Foods," but has the bottles slotted with the other 20 oz plastic bottles in the drink cooler. So I can go pick up a cold ready-to-drink bottle just like I can any other HFCS soda.

    207. Re:Bitcoin by icebraining · · Score: 1

      OK, I'll take the stock exchange analogy back. It still claim it isn't a scam.

    208. Re:Bitcoin by nedlohs · · Score: 1

      No. If you are making a simple payment, then you aren't converting the bitcoins back into dollars so there's no need to hedge anything.

      Obviously it would be stupid to convert dollars into bitcoins and then convert them back a few days later. Just as it would to convert dollars into pesos and then convert them back a few days later, or into euros or whatever. Unless you are speculating on price changes of course.

      But if you are doing so for some crazy reason, then yes you'd be silly not to work out a way to hedge it (unless if was a small enough amount of money that you don't care either way).

    209. Re:Bitcoin by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      No the complaint is that he initiated the transaction and it took two days for it to go through in which time the price had changed drastically and it the result of the transaction was calculated at the rate when it was finished; which is never a rate he even agreed to do a transaction on!

      With any real currency, trades happen nearly instantly, and even if the value changes it is unlikely to change by very much in that amount of time; even on a day with a lot of volatility.

    210. Re:Bitcoin by BitZtream · · Score: 1

      Wrong. No one gained, the entire currency was deflated.

      Currency speculation has been around for a long time because ignorant morons continue to fail to understand that you can not make something from nothing.

      Its not speculation, is con games, you're just too stupid to realize it ... or you're in on it trying to con others.

      The only way you can believe the statement you made is if you have absolutely no intelligence or understanding of the way the real world works in general, your statement is mind numbingly ignorant.

      --
      Persistent Volume manager for Kubernetes - https://github.com/dwimsey/openshift-pvmanager
    211. Re:Bitcoin by Zironic · · Score: 1

      ""Saving for a rainy day" is NOT why insurance exists. Insurance is, by definition, a hedge against disasters. Two different things. Further, insurance does not pay out as much as it takes in (simple elementary-school math), so it doesn't even come close to meeting the definition of "savings". Nor does it address inflation. "
      I suppose we just have different ideas of what 'saving for a rainy day' means. I interpreted it as hedging against unexpected expenses by means of saving, I contrasted with insurance which hedges against unexpected expenses by paying someone to take the risk for you.

      "This is the third point you missed (as I already mentioned above): inflation erodes the value of savings. Even Keynesian economists admit this. If you don't understand why erosion of savings is a bad thing, try being a retired person on a fixed income for a while. It will become very clear to you."
      As mentioned you can most of the time trivially out-save inflation by investing the money. This might lower the liquidity of your money but if you plan on actually saving that's usually not much of a problem.

      "Savings does not "remove money from the economy"! It represents accumulation of capital that can be invested. The alternative is investing only borrowed money. Again, even Keynesians admit that the amount of savings in an economy is a valid indicator of health, as a pool of interest-free, investable capita. But Keynesians tend to give it less weight than other economists do. "
      It does. There's literally zero difference between putting money in a vault and burning the money. And there's no difference between taking the money out of the vault and printing money.

      "As for investing in an index fund: as we clearly saw in 2008, with a fiat currency system, money invested in the market can literally disappear overnight. Hardly what I would consider to be a "secure" investment to leave around for posterity."

      What the heck are you on about? Index funds are tied to the market as a whole, which means that as long as the market exists, your money is fine.

      The value will obviously fluctuate on a day-to-day basis, because the market does so. But over long periods of time they're an extremely safe investment because the market as a whole can be counted on to steadily expand (The day the market as a whole can't recover any-more is probably the end of human civilization as we know it).

      If you compare long term investments it's extremely hard to find investments that have had as good returns as investing in Index funds 50+ years ago has done.

    212. Re:Bitcoin by i_b_don · · Score: 1

      Too true. If you're looking for something to convert your money into to give you something that you can barter for the apocalypse, buy a big gas tank and bury it in the ground somewhere. Hell, that might even make you rich in a few years even without the apocalypse!

      d

      --
      all language nazi's will burne in heil!
    213. Re:Bitcoin by suomynonAyletamitlU · · Score: 2

      So why is the Bitcoin value so volatile? (Now we're in the realm of pure speculation on my part) Because there's no supply chain to keep prices stable. No supply chain of any sort; a restaurant that accepts bitcoins can not buy silverware, or food, or paper cups, or cash register tape, or POS systems, or pay rent in Bitcoins.

      Also, there is no critically necessary good which can only be purchased by bitcoins. If it bought you protection from, say, hackers, in a way that no other currency could, it would have a standard amount of value.

      Imagine in the ancient past, before currency was quite standardized, but feudal governments are willing to trade your loyalty for protection from wild animals, bandits, and the like. Part of "your loyalty", naturally, is taxes, which must be of standardized value. If you don't pay a given amount, you don't get let into the castle when an army sieges, and get to watch your family raped and murdered as you breathe your last breath. You could try to offer them cows and sheep in lieu of coins for tax, but cows and sheep have upkeep; unless they're going to be slaughtered for meat right away, they're as much a burden as a gift. They'd prefer you kept providing milk and wool, so they can tax you later. So you trade milk and wool for coins, and with coins buy protection; the tax coins then are used to buy and trade other goods.

      Stepping out of the analogy, if there was a nasty protection racket where your ISP had to pay off foreign hackers to not be obliterated, and this payment had to be in bitcoins, it might become viable to pay your ISP for service with bitcoins. Then, when you the consumer can buy ISP service in bitcoins, you could use that as a value standard for trading bitcoins for other things.

    214. Re:Bitcoin by BitZtream · · Score: 1

      Right, because those really are two distinct different organizations and one doesn't have more or less complete and total authority and control over the other one.

      Fucking seriously? Are you REALLY so fucked up as to try and argue that the reserve ISN'T government controlled because they have a different name and they have to launder money in order to make it up?

      I have a bridge in Arizona that overlooks the new moon base alpha, sell it too you for $50k, it over looks the plains of Pluto too. Includes its own rocket ship with warp drive. I'll be glad to accept your bitcoins for an additional 10% as well.

      --
      Persistent Volume manager for Kubernetes - https://github.com/dwimsey/openshift-pvmanager
    215. Re:Bitcoin by icebraining · · Score: 1

      Why do you say it is set up to fail?

      Scam is defined as "deprive of by deceit". There's no deceit here - the whole system is perfectly transparent. Whether the early adopters are much more rewarded does not a scam make: most investments work like that.

    216. Re:Bitcoin by murdocj · · Score: 1

      It took a while but I finally spotted the fallacy in the assumption that all non-zero probabilities are equal.

    217. Re:Bitcoin by hairyfeet · · Score: 1

      Uhhh...the US gov hasn't had the ability to print money since 1913 friend. Perhaps this little ditty will enlighten you.

      As for TFA? Those of us that said Bitcoin was a pyramid scheme are quite enjoying the schadenfreude.

      --
      ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
    218. Re:Bitcoin by BitZtream · · Score: 1

      The real problem is that morons place value on bits of data rather than tangible items. When you trade in imaginary items, you get what you deserve, ripped off.

      --
      Persistent Volume manager for Kubernetes - https://github.com/dwimsey/openshift-pvmanager
    219. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, FWIW, Bitcoin isn't an investment tool, and although investors increased the exchange rate, apparently it doesn't help with the currency's development at all. The fact that it's not widely accepted is a chicken-and-egg problem; I can't think of any way a new currency to not have this issue, short of a social revolution or warfare. It will probably take years for Bitcoin to become a viable alternative for online payments and even more for POS, and if this ever happens it will be thanks to passionate developers and ideologically motivated people rather than investors.

    220. Re:Bitcoin by BitZtream · · Score: 1

      Yes, and your point is what?

      Gold has had value to humans for all of recorded history. Thats stability. Its rarity is real, and that alone gives it value due to nothing other than human nature. Its also useful in many processes to produce other things of value, in fact if Gold ceased to exist right this instant, its highly likely that the world would be instantly plunged into massive starvation issues as we'd no longer have the equipment to produce food at the efficiency levels we can today in order to support the incredibly dense and unsustainable cities we've created by our over population of the planet. Gold have many things that make it valuable other than 'its a backing for our currency'.

      Bitcoin has never had any value to anyone but the most ignorant people in our society, and now its even more worthless to them. Bitcoins are not rare, they are easy to copy. Bitcoins are artificially scares, do just because you can't do the same cool calculation that resulted in a bitcoin and still be unique, there are billions of other calculations that are 'hard' and 'time consuming' that are more unique and rare and also far more beneficial to society. Bitcoin can go away and no one anywhere would notice, short of a few blathering idiots who also don't matter.

      --
      Persistent Volume manager for Kubernetes - https://github.com/dwimsey/openshift-pvmanager
    221. Re:Bitcoin by BitZtream · · Score: 1

      It would still have a value as an energy storage mechanism.

      --
      Persistent Volume manager for Kubernetes - https://github.com/dwimsey/openshift-pvmanager
    222. Re:Bitcoin by Surt · · Score: 1

      So who do you claim is actually, literally printing the money. Because it really is getting printed, and whoever is doing the printing can always do more. Legal restrictions are easily brushed away in a crisis, as we've seen.

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    223. Re:Bitcoin by Surt · · Score: 1

      No, it's the FDIC that pays you back. No one bank holds that kind of reserve, large banks are only required to hold a 10% reserve. Smaller banks can hold even less (3%), and tiny banks may hold none.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_requirement

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    224. Re:Bitcoin by Surt · · Score: 1

      Yep, but we've already seen that 'usually' can stretch out much longer than that in a crisis, and this crisis was considered largely averted.

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    225. Re:Bitcoin by DrXym · · Score: 1

      Because bitcoin had way too many ways it could fail. All of these were obvious a long time ago, many people including myself pointed them out and some of those ways came to fruition. Boosters were hyping it in a dishonest fashion presumably because they had a cache of bitcoins and they knew the more people who invested the easier it would be for them to cash out.

    226. Re:Bitcoin by NotAGoodNickname · · Score: 1

      Very true - not the best example. However, a more recent example is the Brazilian Real has lost 20% of its value against the USD in the last 30 days. Currencies fluctuate, and since Bitcoin isn't a heavily used currency it happens to fluctuate a lot. Even a "stable" currency like the US dollar has massive swings. It doesn't mean Bitcoin isn't "worth a shit". I'm not a Bitcoin supporter, but I think it is interesting from a tech perspective.

    227. Re:Bitcoin by Garridan · · Score: 1

      Yeah... that wasn't a good example. Look at Zimbabwe, or more historically, Brazil, for real-world examples of large economies (which BitCoin is not) tanking due to inflation.

    228. Re:Bitcoin by hairyfeet · · Score: 1

      Uhhhh...don't you know? Okay I guess a history lesson is in order. According to the constitution it is SUPPOSED to be the government, but on dec 23, 1913 (which they chose since most legislators would be gone and they could bum rush it) they gave away the right to print money to Federal Reserve which is about as federal as my wiener. It is the top money men, many from Goldman Sachs. In fact you'll see a revolving door between GS and the fed going back decades.

      So to answer your question a bunch of bankers who can choose to listen to the government or choose to tell them to get stuffed, their choice.

      --
      ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
    229. Re:Bitcoin by iluvcapra · · Score: 1

      "John McClusker." should read "John McCusker." I don't know his methodology, but I think most accounts of purchasing power based on a fixed basket of commodities or classes of expenditure are unreliable and don't reflect gains in productivity and the increase in value of the items. Houses cost more than they should if you account for inflation, but they're also much more luxurious, and often much more favorably located due to urban growth. Most durable goods you buy today are simply not comparable with durable goods available even 10 years ago in terms of energy efficiency and features.

      It's a bit like when people argue that health care was so much cheaper in 1920, while ignoring that most health care in the 1920s didn't actually work -- what's the comparable good in 1920 to penicillin? Or even a disposable bandaid? You can't tell me that someone on an median wage today is worse off in terms of available disposable income, return on the value of their fixed expenses, than someone with a median wage in 1950. I know that's a somewhat different claim than the "purchasing power for time t is better than t-1" but I meant it figuratively. You can't compare the future with the past with accounting information, you have to look at people's lives.

      As far as I am concerned, anybody who takes Krugman seriously hasn't read their history.

      The three paragraphs at the end of this post do not respond to the Capitol Hill Babysitting Co-Op. There are good arguments as to how his completely historical and non-prognositcating account are wrong, but you have none of them here. And I would add that most Austrian responses to the Co-Op problem involve just as much prediction and guessing as the Keynesian account.

      --
      Don't blame me, I voted for Baltar.
    230. Re:Bitcoin by NotAGoodNickname · · Score: 1

      I love gold zealots. Gold is up 150% vs the dollar in the last 5 years. Are you suggesting that is because gold has become 150% more valuable in industrial processes in the past 5 years? Or is it more likely that Gold is up 150% because of speculation due to unstable currencies and other commodities? Gold has some value in industrial processes yes, and is relatively rare, but so are other commodities that aren't up 150%.

    231. Re:Bitcoin by Eivind · · Score: 1

      It depends where you are - in Norway (and many other european countries) the government guarantees for private bank-balances up to a certain limit (about $200K here in Norway).

      This guarantee is offcourse only worth as much as the government is credit-worthy, but if you're in a non-euro-country (such as Norway) where the government has the power to simply print money, it's a pretty safe bet they'll give you the money. (besides, our particular government has zero debt, and infact a substantial crisis-buffer - around $100K/capita)

      But offcourse, there's no guarantee that inflation won't reduce the -value- of that money.

    232. Re:Bitcoin by Surt · · Score: 1

      From the very page you linked:
      The result is a structure that is considered unique among central banks. It is also unusual in that an entity outside of the central bank, namely the United States Department of the Treasury, creates the currency used.[11]

      Emphasis mine. You think congress can't order the treasury to produce currency?

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    233. Re:Bitcoin by iluvcapra · · Score: 1

      You're going to have unwind that for me, I am only aware of the standard definitions of these terms, to wit:

      Hard money policies are those which are opposed to fiat currency and thus in support of a specie standard, usually gold or silver, typically implemented with representative money. (thus)

      2. Describes gold/silver/platinum (bullion) coins. A government that uses a hard money policy backs the value of the currency it uses with a hard, tangible and lasting material that will retain its relative value over time. (thus)

      The term “hard money” usually refers to one of two things. It can, first of all, be used for actual gold or silver coins, for example. Using this definition, we can say that a hard money policy is one in which the government recognizes currency which is based on an actual, fixed item which is considered valuable.(thus)

      I'm just grabbin' the first few out of Google, here, maybe you have some sort of non-standard definition of these terms.

      --
      Don't blame me, I voted for Baltar.
    234. Re:Bitcoin by Garridan · · Score: 1

      The success or failure of any currency is a matter of faith. Not enough people have bought into Bitcoin to be effective, so it's highly susceptible to "runs" -- everybody pulling out at once because of a perceived threat to its value, soon compounded by the value plunging due to everybody pulling out. In a very real sense, it's the people who predicted Bitcoin wasn't worth a shit that are at fault for its demise.

    235. Re:Bitcoin by Rockoon · · Score: 1

      Because it really is getting printed, and whoever is doing the printing can always do more.

      "Whoever is doing it" are the central banks, and they are not an arm of the federal government. Your argument requires that the FDIC backers (the federal government, the executive branch to be precise) can order the printing of money for the purpose of paying off depositors. The problem with your argument, as you have been told, is that the central banks are not a part of the federal government.. and thats by design.

      Your starting premises are wrong, but you refuse to re-evaluate your conclusion and instead argue that the premise still holds true when we ignore reality. It is also informative that you spread your opinion so easily while being so misinformed about even the basics of the subject.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    236. Re:Bitcoin by SanityInAnarchy · · Score: 1

      The cash stays still, but it's losing value due to inflation. Just as if you transfer everything to Bitcoins, and stuff that in your laptop, it stays still. (If your house burns down, or your laptop hard drive crashes, you lose everything, but that's why banks exist -- and there's no reason a bank for Bitcoins couldn't be created.)

      It's not strictly a zero-sum game, of course, but what do you think causes inflation? Who is it who's making money from it? If you aren't earning at least the inflation rate in interest, your inaction is making someone else wealthy.

      If you determine the value of everything based on the dollar, you're not really being fair to any other currency, including Bitcoin. The value of a dollar, or a bitcoin, is what you can buy with it.

      --
      Don't thank God, thank a doctor!
    237. Re:Bitcoin by SanityInAnarchy · · Score: 1

      As would I, but it sounds like you're conceding the central point: If your bank gives you back exactly as much currency as you put in, it's not the bank's fault if the currency changes value. And since all currencies change value, it's not that Bitcoin is somehow less of a currency than others because of this.

      It's just that Bitcoin is currently a hell of a lot more volatile, and there are good reasons for that. Which also suggests that it'd be a terrible place to put your life savings right now.

      --
      Don't thank God, thank a doctor!
    238. Re:Bitcoin by Rockoon · · Score: 1

      The powers of congress to mint coin still exists.. however you seem to be unaware that we now trade on Federal Reserve Notes, aka The U.S. Dollar, which the federal government does not have the power to print.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    239. Re:Bitcoin by Lexx+Greatrex · · Score: 1

      Without being too philosophical, a defining characteristic of humanity is our ability to speculate. To not speculate would be to not reason, not imagine, not predict, not learn. To speculate is to use the machinery of the human mind to make predictions based on past experience and knowledge. Such speculation is the basis of decisions we make every day. Speculation based on our perception of other people's speculation lies at the core of our ability to operate in partnerships, social groups and to compete with other individuals or other groups.

      Speculation of speculative outcomes based on further speculation is what some call the financial markets. This lies at the fringe of what the human mind is capable of, and some would contend is more akin to gambling than making informed predictions. The outcome of such uncertainty is a measurable level of non-linear noise that must be overcome before profit can be extracted from the market. To move beyond the effects of random chance, volumes, spread and timeframes must exceed this differential threshold. Since all but the largest players lack one or all such measures, free-market speculation ensures that the markets are less subject to the whims of the masses and more conducive to influence and profit-taking from the largest players.

      The answer to "what does financial speculation produce?" is it produces a marketplace with the odds shifted slightly in favor of longer term and higher value investors. Most people already know this answer at an intuitive level, just not why it is the case.

    240. Re:Bitcoin by AaxelB · · Score: 1

      A superior Coca Cola made with sugar instead of corn syrup [...]

      (Just as a sidenote) It depends how you mean "superior", but this sheds some interesting light on the matter:

      Those folks who prefer Mexican Coke (like myself), really just like the idea of Mexican Coke—whether it's because they think real sugar is tastier/healthier than corn syrup, whether it's because Mexican Coke is more expensive and harder to find, thus more valuable, whether it's because of its exoticism, whatever the reason—strip away the Mexicanness of it, and suddenly it's a lot less appealing.

    241. Re:Bitcoin by Rockoon · · Score: 1

      The fact that the Treasury holds the printing presses in no way makes your make believe world a reality. The treasury may only print notes at the request of the central banks, and the treasury must then hand the notes over to the central banks in exchange for $0.04 per note (the cost of printing a note of any size at this time.)

      When you learned that your starting premises were wrong, you went down the road of make believe and wild stretching. Its your move again.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    242. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      BitCoin is completely useless for anything other than completely transactions that would otherwise have extreme fraud risk (eg most RMT in video games, illegal drugs, money laundering, anything that PayPal won't allow, etc.)

      But it's fundamental design, that it can deflate prices, is why it will never ever be used except to rip off people. Inflation must exist otherwise debt's become impossible to get out of (insert long explanation of FIAT currency and why only fools believe in returning to the gold standard.)

      But as a game currency, yes, it could work pretty well, but that doesn't help the speculators.

      And I wish Slashdot would stop posting news about BitCoin because it's just like a pump and dump scam.

    243. Re:Bitcoin by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

      The federal government, in the case of America, cannot print money. It can borrow money, even from those with the power to print it, but it cannot print money itself nor can it order the printing of money. Period.

      From the US Constitution, Section 8 (Powers of Congress):

      To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof,

      Yep, looks like the US Government can, if it chooses, print money.

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    244. Re:Bitcoin by icebraining · · Score: 1

      If they were obvious, how were people fooled?

    245. Re:Bitcoin by shentino · · Score: 1

      mod parent up: funny.

    246. Re:Bitcoin by sourcerror · · Score: 1

      That's why I only accept currency that I can eat.

    247. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It wasn't much, but I sure as hell aren't going to use it again.

      I know it makes me a tiny little person to get hung up on it, but: "It wasn't much, but I'm sure as hell not going to use it again."

    248. Re:Bitcoin by goose-incarnated · · Score: 1

      Are you failing to understand the referencing to fundamental economics here, or are you just willfully obtuse?

      Are you failing to understand that a currency such as bitcoins or grains of beach sand have no actual value? The worth of any other currency is the value backed by the country of that currency. Hell, even grains of beach sand have some intrinsic value (you can do something with them) while bitcoins don't even have that. Dollars and Euros and Rands (and etc) have an actual value - namely you can give them to the country in question and get something of value back.

      Thank god you aren't in charge of our economy, it would have failed even FASTER.

      You're a good example of illogical and irrational thinking; almost a model of how not to make your point.

      --
      I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
    249. Re:Bitcoin by LoyalOpposition · · Score: 2

      Are you honestly comparing 2 days with 10 years of handpicked "highest recent inflations"?

      Yes. It's a talent of mine. Why, in recent days I've compared Bush to Hitler, a mountain to a molehill, Tea Party Activists to Holocaust victims, apples to oranges, and Milla Jovovitch to Christina Hendricks.

      ~Loyal

      Answer Key: greater, greater, greater, greater, lesser.

      --
      I aim to misbehave.
    250. Re:Bitcoin by goose-incarnated · · Score: 1

      You are a moron, http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=2483800&cid=37763016

      Yeah, the only real currency to match bitcoins is one that has no value any longer because it was not backed by anything of value ... You compare bitcoins to a failed and presently non-existent currency, and you call me a moron?

      Well Done!

      --
      I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
    251. Re:Bitcoin by horza · · Score: 1

      The developers don't plan for anything on how a currency works, it is out of their hands. It works like any other such as Euros and Dollars. In '92 George Soros shorted the Pound Sterling, and made $1bn profit in 1 day. That's the way currency markets go, sometimes large players distort the market for their own profit.

      Phillip.

    252. Re:Bitcoin by sourcerror · · Score: 1

      " But the problem with that idea is that this "created" money can disappear just as fast as it is created, or even faster as we clearly saw back in 2008.

      That is only possible with a fiat currency. "

      No, you're wrong. Money is "created" by fractional reserve banking itself, and it can be done with gold coins as a currency.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nH2-37rTA8U

    253. Re:Bitcoin by Surt · · Score: 1

      I'm pretty sure the treasury dept is doing the actual printing.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_System

      "The result is a structure that is considered unique among central banks. It is also unusual in that an entity outside of the central bank, namely the United States Department of the Treasury, creates the currency used.[11]"

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    254. Re:Bitcoin by Surt · · Score: 1

      We're both in the fantasyland of what happens in a major banking meltdown. Your move.

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    255. Re:Bitcoin by Carnildo · · Score: 1

      You could bury money in your back yard, and your great-great-great-grandson could dig it up 100 years later and buy as much flour with it as you could.

      Plus or minus about 25%. The lack of long-term variation in the value of gold-backed currencies is nice if you're planning for the long term (say, setting up an inheritance for your grandson), but the high short-term variations can be horrible when planning for next year. Knowing that the $10,000 you put away for your grandson's college education will still buy about a year at school twenty years from now is good, but not when it means you don't know if next year's grocery costs will be $1500 or $2500.

      --
      "They redundantly repeated themselves over and over again incessantly without end ad infinitum" -- ibid.
    256. Re:Bitcoin by jdavidb · · Score: 1

      The theory backing bitcoins is largely based on the (non-mainstream) ideas of Austrian economics

      Actually, most Austrian economists I know disclaim bitcoin because it has not arisen from a good which had prior value.

    257. Re:Bitcoin by rnswebx · · Score: 1

      If I deposit $100 into an FDIC insured bank account, in all but the most ridiculous extreme cases, I'll be able to withdraw $100 whenever I'd like. Whether or not the bank is speculating with my money doesn't particularly concern me as long as I have access to the funds I deposited. With Bitcoin, this is must less likely to happen as the value fluctuates wildly in very short amounts of time.

    258. Re:Bitcoin by DrXym · · Score: 1

      People are blinded by the thought of easy money. Look at all the victims of Nigerian scams for example.

    259. Re:Bitcoin by cjcela · · Score: 1

      I agree with you.. well.. almost. It is not supposed to be an investment tool, but most people who get into it does it because it believes it will be valuable in the future, not because they can pay rent or buy groceries, or a plane ticket with it.

    260. Re:Bitcoin by mrchaotica · · Score: 1

      That's one person's opinion; there are lots of other people who really do prefer soda with sugar instead of HFCS because it's real sugar. Witness the popularity of Pepsi Throwback (and Dr. Pepper and Mountain Dew throwback, and Sierra Mist Natural), which I always prefer even though they have exactly the same price, packaging, and country of origin as their "regular" HFCS equivalents.

      In fact, I'm much more likely to buy Pepsi Throwback than Mexican Coke because I'm price-sensitive: I'd love it if Coca-Cola started selling real sugar stuff in the US, in cans and 2-liter bottles.

      --

      "[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz

    261. Re:Bitcoin by mrchaotica · · Score: 1

      Because (in the short term, at least) pretty much everything you'd buy with BitCoins is purchased over the Internet, and if you're buying online anyway then you might as well buy from the cheapest country.

      --

      "[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz

    262. Re:Bitcoin by AaxelB · · Score: 1

      ...did you read the link? The quote is from the conclusion of a long post that describes the setup and results of an admittedly small study, but a study nonetheless. Not just one person's opinion.

    263. Re:Bitcoin by mbkennel · · Score: 1

      "The federal government, in the case of America, cannot print money. It can borrow money, even from those with the power to print it, but it cannot print money itself nor can it order the printing of money. Period."

      Sure it can. It did so before.

      "Come back when you know whats actually going on in the world."

      It's unwise to be insulting and incorrect.

      There exist instruments known as United States Notes, distinct from Federal Reserve Notes. For example:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_$5_1963_USN.jpg
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Notes

      According to Wikipedia: "The difference between a United States Note and a Federal Reserve Note is that a United States Note represented a "bill of credit" and was inserted by the Treasury directly into circulation free of interest. Federal Reserve Notes are backed by debt purchased by the Federal Reserve, and thus generate seigniorage, or interest, for the Federal Reserve System, which serves as a lending intermediary between the Treasury and the public."

      Economically US Notes are equivalent to 0% zero-coupon treasury notes. They add the same legal tender status as Federal Reserve Notes.

      At present US Notes are not effectively in circulation (most likely all have been destroyed or are at the Federal Reserve banks) but they remain legal money.

      The federal government, with a new or revised act of Congress, could restart the issuance of US Notes at will. US Notes are not considered subject to the statutory debt limit.

    264. Re:Bitcoin by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      Nah, stock up on the most valuable thing in a post apocalyptic economy:

      Ammunition.

    265. Re:Bitcoin by mbkennel · · Score: 1

      "Once you have decided that the rules will change or dont matter, you can make all sorts of silly bullshit claims. The fact remains that our federal government is not in control of the money supply.

      I understand that you didnt know this, and I understand that the error that your ignorance generated is embarrassing to you. Instead of venturing into the land of make believe in order to continue to justify hastily made conclusions based on wrong information, you should instead re-evaluate your conclusion."

      Again, it's unwise to be insulting and incorrect.

      In current practice the policies of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve system very strongly influence the money supply to the degree that if there is any "control" it is there. The board members are nominated by the President and approved by Congress, and report to Congress regularly. There is some level of independence in that the director is not a clearly political cabinet appointee of the President. This isn't that much different from the CIA or NASA, and nobody thinks they are not Federal agencies. The existence and the powers of the Federal Reserve are determined by acts of Congress. Congress could impeach and remove Ben Bernanke if it had reason to.

      To me, and I think most of the planet, this counts as federal control of the money supply to me than not-federal control of the money supply.

    266. Re:Bitcoin by iamthelaw · · Score: 1

      You're not wrong. That is also true of most of the Austrian economists that I know. I also think that my statements about the negative aspects of gold would probably be enough to get me hanged in the wrong circles; and my statement of the positives of fiat money would likely get me shot as well (I'm sure that there's something else I said that could get me defenestrated for the whole Rasputin treatment). So even by Austrian standards, I'm somewhat heterodox. My reading of von Mises, though, centers more around the "why" of money arises from commodities. And if I really need to defend my view from first principles, I see no way that Bitcoins are not a commodity; they satisfy all the fungibility requirements that one would apply to a commodity.

    267. Re:Bitcoin by mbkennel · · Score: 1

      The Federal Reserve is indeed federal of course. Its existence and powers are a consequence of an Act of Congress. What Act of Congress created JP Morgan? None of course. The President nominates and Congress approves the Federal Reserve Board of governors, the same thing happens for say CIA, NASA, EPA, and many other non-cabinet agencies. The Federal Reserve governors are obligated to report to Congress as a matter of law, and, I believe, are subject to impeachment. The Federal Reserve has regulatory power over private banks backed by the force of law. Finally, income in excess of expenses is returned to the US Treasury.

      Ownership means in reality, control of management and beneficiary of profits. By both measures the US Government owns the Federal Reserve.

      "It is the top money men, many from Goldman Sachs. In fact you'll see a revolving door between GS and the fed going back decades."

      There's a revolving door between the banking industry and all parts of the government going back decades, but so what?
      It doesn't meant that the government agencies aren't government agencies.

       

    268. Re:Bitcoin by mbkennel · · Score: 1

      "The treasury may only print notes at the request of the central banks"

      or U.S. Congress.

    269. Re:Bitcoin by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      My point is you're applying waaaaay too much effort to come up with a model for something that doesn't need one.

      Scarcity doesn't matter, other than to prevent hyperinflation. Scarcity is convenience.

      'Fungibility' is in the eye of the beholder. One group may really care about the differences between chickens. Say, people involved in cockfighting. But for everyone else, chicken is worth X per pound. Even with gold, one nugget may be more aesthetically pleasing.

      And no currency is inherently useless. You can write on paper currency, make paper airplanes, admire the printing, perform a variety of magic tricks, and so on. You can use coinage for a variety of things when you need a small object that is somewhat heavy for it's size. It excels as shims, weights, or when jammed into fuseboxes.

    270. Re:Bitcoin by Khyber · · Score: 1

      Too bad you never took any economics courses. You'd almost be spot-on if not for a few tiny oversights.

      Too bad you never took any economics courses.

      Speaking as part of the 1%, just FYI.

      --
      Still waiting on Serviscope_minor to wake up to fucking reality and realize that Jessica Price isn't going to fuck him.
    271. Re:Bitcoin by mbkennel · · Score: 1

      Speculators produce predictions of some property of the future, and act on them today, and bring that prediction to light publically.

      This prediction can result in changes in the world today.

      For instance if certain speculators predict oil will be increasing soon because of X,Y,Z (hurricanes, production problems, war) in the future, they will buy instruments which, in aggregate, will increase the 'forward' price.

      Other people working now may see this and fill up some empty tankers and wait a few months and sell the oil then, thereby transferring the oil from a time when it was in less demand to one when it is in more demand. The speculative market and public signals make how to do this strategy readily apparent.

    272. Re:Bitcoin by Fluffeh · · Score: 1

      But when speculation becomes a business itself, the entire economy can get sucked down the whirlpool. The most recent economic boom definitely seems to have been casino-based.

      When I read that, I thought to myself - hey, if these guys were trying to speculate on the market and lost, then it means that somebody won - which of course got me thinking about who it was. Then I of course came to the realisation that the bankers here traded the "loss" to the government for a "win" in return. I am pretty sure that this is rather obvious to everyone, but given my current seedy mental state, it felt like a brief spark of "Wow!" :)

      --
      Moved to http://soylentnews.org/. You are invited to join us too!
    273. Re:Bitcoin by cusco · · Score: 1

      Where are these savings accounts that keep up with inflation? I haven't seen one in a decade. Even most money market accounts don't keep up with even the official inflation rate (which is much lower than the real inflation). Maybe it's different outside the US, but even credit unions here don't normally offer interest rates over 2% on savings accounts, and banks are generally under 1%.

      --
      "Think about how stupid the average person is. Now, realise that half of them are dumber than that." - George Carlin
    274. Re:Bitcoin by cusco · · Score: 1

      Not the same Mark. The current version of the Mark is a completely new currency, if you have a 1942 1000 Mark note and try to change it for a new 1000 Mark note at the bank they'll laugh at you. (Unless you're really lucky and get an extremely stupid teller, of course.)

      --
      "Think about how stupid the average person is. Now, realise that half of them are dumber than that." - George Carlin
    275. Re:Bitcoin by goose-incarnated · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Too bad you never took any economics courses. You'd almost be spot-on if not for a few tiny oversights.

      Too bad you never took any economics courses.

      Speaking as part of the 1%, just FYI.

      Sigh.

      I am part of the 1%. I also did complete economics (Money, Banking and Financial Markets). I also know that because money is used a measure of value in barter, the market sets the value for any form of money. The bitcoinites seem to miss a very important point - there is no value in electricity already spent unless value has been added. The only value of a currency is to represent the value added by the next link in the chain of production.

      Farmer grows sunflower crop (adds value by expending work to make something that the next person wants)

      Vegetable oil refinery uses sunflower seeds to make vegetable oil (added value is something that people can cook with)

      Supermarket makes oil available to shoppers (added value is to the shopper that purchases all groceries at the same place)

      All that is value being added!

      How about normal currency?

      State takes worthless paper and, using electricity and effort and time, makes legal tender (the value added to the paper is the promise that all vendors within that jurisdiction will accept that paper as payment, and they can always redeem it for actual value with the state)

      The secondary value added by dealing with the paper (or any other similar state-backed currency) is the secure knowledge that it can be used to measure value in any amount of arbitrary products - it's the base of reference for value.

      Now, bitcoins?

      Miner takes electricity and produces unique combination of numbers (No added value, as those numbers have no legal status as a measure of value in any nation)

      Those numbers can be exchanged for items of value, but said items value is not measured in those numbers, it is measured in the currency described above

      Those numbers are accepted by an insignificant minority of vendors, rendering them even more worthless.

      At this point, bitcoins aren't a currency because a currency has to be universally recognised as a measure of wealth in that jurisdiction. Bitcoins are simply an item of value to barter with, much like swapping a pocket of potatoes for a crate of tomatoes. Unfortunately, the value bitcoins possess differs from person to person in the same jurisdiction (some value it close to nothing, others hoard it in anticipation of future payoff) so the bartering is unpredictable and thus it even fails as an item of barter. Even worse, the only way to measure it's value (from zero to infinite) is by using the existing ruler - namely the actual currency of that jurisdiction.

      Bitcoins are a lovely idea, but the idea has no grounding in reality. Posts below mine explain all this very well for non-economics people; I'll just add that a real currency has a measure of worth that is independent of other currencies. For example, a single ZAR is backed by the South African Government. The country as a whole has value that is expressed by the GDP (irrespective of actual units of measure, the GDP is still a statement of value!). That single ZAR is a slice of that value. A bitcoin, OTOH, has no value that can be expressed as the product of a jurisdiction. This is because it does not represent any sort of value.

      --
      I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
    276. Re:Bitcoin by mattack2 · · Score: 1

      DId you & Oligonicella short Bitcoins, and make a bundle?

    277. Re:Bitcoin by egamma · · Score: 1

      The powers of congress to mint coin still exists.. however you seem to be unaware that we now trade on Federal Reserve Notes, aka The U.S. Dollar, which the federal government does not have the power to print.

      And you seem unaware of the fact that the Federal government created the Federal Reserve and appoints (pres) and confirms (senate) the governors of the Federal Reserve. Its independence lasts only as long as congress wants it to last.

    278. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "ou are most likely already doing that already anyway. What do you think your bank does with your money?"

      What bank trades Bitcoin?

    279. Re:Bitcoin by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      "... most accounts of purchasing power based on a fixed basket of commodities or classes of expenditure are unreliable and don't reflect gains in productivity and the increase in value of the items. Houses cost more than they should if you account for inflation, but they're also much more luxurious, and often much more favorably located due to urban growth. Most durable goods you buy today are simply not comparable with durable goods available even 10 years ago in terms of energy efficiency and features."

      Yes, a typo. So what? I have the book right here next to me; if you don't believe me, just ask for a number from one of the tables.

      A fixed basket of commodities is the only reliable way to measure relative purchasing power over generations. Anything else is wholly subjective. McCusker uses up a good deal of space in his book explaining exactly why.

      "More luxurious" is self-contradictory in this context. In order for it to be more luxurious, one has to spend money on more goods, which in turn have to be measured against comparison baskets of goods. It was possible for people in the past to live in relative luxury too, you know. Obviously it is impossible to directly compare a donkey cart with a Chevy, but one CAN compare the cost of comfortable transportation from New York to Boston.

      But where the major differences have actually occurred are more comparable. People (if fewer of them) had electric and gasoline cars 80 years ago. Electric lights were available. And so on. But most especially, when inflation has been most rampant, has been in just the last 40 years. I can compare directly because I was there.

      "There are good arguments as to how his completely historical and non-prognositcating account are wrong, but you have none of them here."

      Sure there are. At that link are at least a couple of instances of Krugman exclaiming about how good it was to have housing available at (what we now know to be) artificially low interest rates. However, in hindsight we can see that the artificially low interest rates and resulting malinvestment were major contributors to, if not the primary cause of, the "housing bubble". Krugman was prognisticating about how good it was to have the low interest rates, and he was simply wrong. If I had a lot more time, I would dig up more examples for you.

      "And I would add that most Austrian responses to the Co-Op problem involve just as much prediction and guessing as the Keynesian account."

      Of course. The major difference being that the Austrians were usually right, and the Keynesians almost always wrong.

      Starting clear back before the crash of '29... Friedrich Von Hayek predicted in Feb. of 29 that government monetary policy was going to cause a crash. But proto-Keynesian (Keynes had not yet formulated his theory but some mainstream economists were already using many of the concepts he adopted) Irving Fisher was on the radio proclaiming just how fine the economy was doing, the day before the market crash.

      The Keynesians were predicting absolute economic disaster when the government brought all the troops home at once from WWII, claiming (via their sacred Phillips curve) that it would be impossible for the economy to absorb so many unemployed at once. The Austrians did not. Lo and behold, the US economy the very next year entered one of the most productive periods of its entire history.

      Keynesians claimed that what we now call "stagflation" was economically impossible. When it actually happened, not just a dip but for a prolonged period in the late 70s-early 80s, they struggled to modify their theory to account for it. In fact it was Milton Friedman, a non-Keynesian, who first proposed a plausible explanation.

      Before the recession of 2001, Keynesians again were proclaiming from the rooftops how great the economy was: "Come on in! The market's fine! It's never been higher!" Austrians were talking abo

    280. Re:Bitcoin by cusco · · Score: 1

      The worth of any other currency is the value backed by the country of that currency.

      No, the worth of a currency is the CONFIDENCE in in the value of the currency. Banks, corporations, unions, muncipalities, states, and individuals have all issued curency, often of a higher value than the currency issued by their parent country because there was more confidence that the user of the currency would be able to purchase actual goods with it.

      Case in point: some friends lived in Bolivia during the hyperinflation of the 1980s. Bored one day, they figured out that using high-denomination government banknotes for toilet paper was actually cheaper than using that currency to purchase toilet paper. A local silver mine printed up its own currency and paid its employees with it, since they quite literally could not get hold of enough official currency to pay their salaries. Local merchants were happy to take the new money, since they were able to exchange it back to the mine for actual silver. A local cocainero did the same, and merchants were able to exchange his currency for US$. In the meantime the second-largest import into Bolivia that year was government banknotes, which were printed in France.

      --
      "Think about how stupid the average person is. Now, realise that half of them are dumber than that." - George Carlin
    281. Re:Bitcoin by cusco · · Score: 1

      You've never sent money internationally, then. Wire transfers through Bank of America have taken us an average of two weeks to receive, and in one case four MONTHS (they sent it to the wrong country, and then twice to the wrong city).

      --
      "Think about how stupid the average person is. Now, realise that half of them are dumber than that." - George Carlin
    282. Re:Bitcoin by mrchaotica · · Score: 1

      This is Slashdot; of course I didn't read the link!

      I did now, though, and it was actually pretty interesting. However, he still glossed over the whole "HFCS vs. sugar" issue (and I disagree with his assessment: if the issue is whether fructose is worse for you than glucose -- and that is the issue -- then the ratio of fructose to glucose does matter).

      --

      "[Regarding the 'cloud,'] ownership was what made America different than Russia." -- Woz

    283. Re:Bitcoin by cusco · · Score: 1

      A dozen banks in Peru, just in 1989, when I was living there. One year, twelve banks, all deposits lost.

      Several dozen banks in Ecuador, whatever year they did their 'dolarization' (1999?). Bank our friend worked at just closed its doors one day, he lost everything, job, money, retirement fund, since of course he had it all deposited there.

      --
      "Think about how stupid the average person is. Now, realise that half of them are dumber than that." - George Carlin
    284. Re:Bitcoin by AaxelB · · Score: 1

      Heh, fair enough. I agree some of the analysis is a bit weak, but it is still interesting. He was definitely trying to address all the people that insist Mexican Coke tastes better, not those that choose it for health reasons (though, really, drinking Mexican Coke for health reasons is a silly place to end up).

    285. Re:Bitcoin by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      "I suppose we just have different ideas of what 'saving for a rainy day' means. I interpreted it as hedging against unexpected expenses by means of saving, I contrasted with insurance which hedges against unexpected expenses by paying someone to take the risk for you."

      Yes, apparently a misunderstanding. But I meant savings in the classical sense: money in the bank or under the mattress.

      "As mentioned you can most of the time trivially out-save inflation by investing the money. This might lower the liquidity of your money but if you plan on actually saving that's usually not much of a problem."

      No, to an economist savings and investments are two different things. Investments, are, by definition, money that has been invested. Savings is interest-free money that is available for investment.

      "It does. There's literally zero difference between putting money in a vault and burning the money. And there's no difference between taking the money out of the vault and printing money."

      There is a huge difference. Savings are nearly 100% liquid capital (or would be, if it weren't for our fractional-reserve banking system). Burned money is not only not liquid, it doesn't exist anymore. If you don't understand that difference, I strongly urge you to get an entry-level book on economics.

      "What the heck are you on about? Index funds are tied to the market as a whole, which means that as long as the market exists, your money is fine."

      Nonsense. An index fund follows the market. On average, when the market does well, so does the index fund. And when the market does not do well, neither does the index fund.

      In case nobody has told you: the market hasn't been doing that well. If you weren't one of those bailed out a couple of years ago, if you had a lot invested, index fund or not, you could easily be one of the many who were financially ruined.

      Obviously, over time, the market has trended upward. But even a short-term dip can bring ruin to many investors. Index funds were designed to take the risks out of picking individual winners and losers in the market; they don't hedge against market-wide problems. They are only slightly more immune to depressions and market crashes than other funds.

      "... the market as a whole can be counted on to steadily expand... "

      No, it can't. Have you forgotten 2008 already? *IF* you have the savings or discretionary capital to weather slumps like that, you can come out ahead in the long run. But not everybody does, and there are a great many losers.

    286. Re:Bitcoin by modmans2ndcoming · · Score: 1

      print? no... coin? yes....

      The treasury can coin any amount of money and deposit it in the fed. the fed had to then transfer that value in currency to the treasury, allowing the treasury to print money.

      5 trillion dollar platinum coin....done.

    287. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Speculators are a capacitor. Storing charge when the voltage is above the mean level, dumping charge when below.

      You need to rethink your analogy. Speculators "store charge" when the "voltage" is low, and try to get rid of it when the "voltage" is high. The way you've phrased it, speculators are voluntarily trying to lose money.

    288. Re:Bitcoin by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      Speculators produce predictions of some property of the future, and act on them today, and bring that prediction to light publically.

      This prediction can result in changes in the world today.

      For instance if certain speculators predict oil will be increasing soon because of X,Y,Z (hurricanes, production problems, war) in the future, they will buy instruments which, in aggregate, will increase the 'forward' price.

      Other people working now may see this and fill up some empty tankers and wait a few months and sell the oil then, thereby transferring the oil from a time when it was in less demand to one when it is in more demand. The speculative market and public signals make how to do this strategy readily apparent.

      But what do they produce? Why is what they do useful to society?

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    289. Re:Bitcoin by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      The distinction I was making was between a gold standard and "price fixing". They are essentially opposites. In each case, one is the independent variable, and the other is the dependent variable. And which is which, matters a lot.

      To illustrate: let's say you set gold at a fixed $300 per ounce. (That's a price fix.) If your money inflates, and becomes worth less, then so does the $300, and therefore so does that amount of gold. By law. (If it didn't, it wouldn't actually be a price fix.) And vice versa if it deflates, of course. And it will fluctuate under a fiat money system, because by definition the value of the money floats and is dependent on interest rates and the money supply. Of course nobody fixes the price of gold like that, because it's unrealistic. Our monetary system floats. If gold itself varied in absolute value as much as the dollar, it would not be any good as a standard anyway.

      In contrast, a hard money standard sets the value of money in terms of a commodity, like gold. The whole purpose here is to use a commodity that is relatively stable in value in the first place. (It is of relatively stable supply; the amount available to the market does not change that much from year to year.) Note that I stated value, not price. In our fiat money system people are used to gold fluctuating in price. But with a gold standard it cannot, by definition.

      The difference is that now a dollar is guaranteed to be worth a certain amount of gold. Period. More dollars cannot be inflationarily printed, because then there would not be enough gold to pay off the holders of the dollars, and make good on that promise. The money supply remains much more stable. And as history has very clearly shown, it is in fact much more stable when there is hard currency versus fiat money. As I have explained elsewhere; even during recessions and brief depressions up to the early 20th Century, the money supply remained very stable and money value nearly constant, on any frame of reference of more than a year or so.

      Other things besides gold and silver have been used as monetary standards of course; the idea is that it should be (a) relatively precious, so that it is not necessary to transport large amounts of it, and (b) of relatively stable supply.

    290. Re:Bitcoin by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      You're obviously alive. Maybe you have a job and are generally doing ok? Well then, I think "because I said so" worked for you. "Because I said so" is just a way of saying "You're too young and naive to understand why this is a bad idea and that I know what is better for you, but I'm putting in a way to exert my authority so that you don't question it." According to your profile you are a father and should hopefully already know this.

      Oh, I well understand the usefulness of the "Because I said so" argument.

      But I don't see how it's useful in regard to why we need to have financial speculators. Wouldn't it be better to have all such predictions simply published openly so everyone could act on them instead of having those predictions spur behavior that will inevitably lead to economic instability?

      "Because I said so" is a useful shortcut for parents. As an reason for us to believe a "free market" where information is not equally distributed is a good thing, it is inadequate.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    291. Re:Bitcoin by icebraining · · Score: 1

      So they didn't lie or deceit. People are just bad at making investment choices.

      Sorry, it doesn't fit the definition of scam, no more than a casino game does.

    292. Re:Bitcoin by dbIII · · Score: 1

      With respect, it's not "currency speculation", it's finding another sucker to buy the ponzi thing you've bought for more than you paid for it. It's a pyramid scheme FFS. The cool tech features are just window dressing to pull in the suckers.

    293. Re:Bitcoin by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Knowing that the $10,000 you put away for your grandson's college education will still buy about a year at school twenty years from now is good, but not when it means you don't know if next year's grocery costs will be $1500 or $2500.

      If you had enough savings or equity to get you through about a year, though, you were pretty safe. Sure, there were some high short-term fluctuations, but (a) they tended to return to their former value over any period of about a year or more, and (b) the fluctuations affected markets a lot more than they did the more rural economy. Keep in mind that the investors and bigwigs owned a lot lower percentage of the total wealth then than they do now.

      As I mentioned, there were some little bubbles right around the wars, but the price indexes went right back to where they were before, afterward.

    294. Re:Bitcoin by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      Their purpose is to increase the balance of their and their clients' bank accounts.

      At the expense of price stability and a predictable future?

      I'm trying to come up with an example of how financial speculators make the world a better place. I can come up with ways banks can make the world a better place, and that venture capitalists can make the world a better place, lawyers, politicians and even how Java programmers can make the world a better place. But I cannot for the life of me see any negative impact on the world if every last speculator were to suddenly decide to become a cabinet maker or shepherd.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    295. Re:Bitcoin by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      In other words: They invest in risky operations.

      That sounds like venture investors.

      I get the feeling financial speculators are a bit different. They buy a tanker of oil and keep it offshore until the price goes up and then they let it go to market. They act as intermediaries in the market, insuring higher prices, less supply. So instead of the market operating as you would expect, they interfere just enough to fill their bellies, but hopefully not enough to cause pain.

      Venture capitalists add to society. Financial speculators only subtract. Producing nothing but instability at best and disaster at worst.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    296. Re:Bitcoin by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      Basically, when speculation takes place as a part of normal economic activity (such as purchasing contracts for fuel or commodities at a fixed price in order to plan your future business spending) it's part of the general flow of the economy, and does no more harm than bubbles on a stream. But when speculation becomes a business itself, the entire economy can get sucked down the whirlpool. The most recent economic boom definitely seems to have been casino-based.

      Excellent summary. Thank you.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    297. Re:Bitcoin by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      The value of liquidity in the market is that there comes a time when an investor will want to turn some portion of their investment into cash. If a market is liquid, the investor can easily get cash for their investment. If a market is not very liquid, there can be significant delay in getting cash in return for assets.

      So, it sounds like what you're saying is, because anything like a real "free market" is a complete fantasy, we need speculators to make us believe that there is actually a working marketplace, because without them, the assets that make rich people rich wouldn't be worth nearly as much because they'd have to wait until someone wanted to buy what they have to sell. So in other words, speculators just provide grease for the machine that creates economic disparity. OK, got it.

      Another example of a way that speculators help the market can be illustrated with natural disasters. In the ordinary course of events there is a limited demand for most building supplies in a particular region. After a natural disaster, there will be a significant increase in the demand for building supplies in that area that cannot be met by the inventory on hand of the regular suppliers. A speculator will buy a large quantity of building supplies in some other region and ship them to the area where the natural disaster occurred, betting that they will be able to sell them for significantly more than they paid for them plus the shipping costs.

      So speculators are the guys who make a buck off other people's pain because we're so dysfunctional as a society that we can't figure out how to get help to people who have suffered a disaster other than stuffing some parasite's pockets full of money so he can charge exorbitant prices to people whose lives have just collapsed.

      Great.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    298. Re:Bitcoin by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      Whereas for the last 80 years (it's true, you can chart it... it makes for a very alarming chart), the purchasing power of our money has been on a steady decline.

      And you blame that on Keynes? People impute all sorts of things to Keynes when really all he said was simply that aggregate demand had more to do with economic activity than aggregate supply.

      Considering the last 80 years was also the period of greatest improvement in standard of living in the countries that adopted Keynes philosophies, what does it matter what the number on your currency "actually" represents?

      The greatest economic pain in the past 80 years seems to have happened to the extent that we deviated from Keynes suggestions, like with the farkakte notion of supply-side economics where if we only let a few wise old white men have all the money, we'll all get richer because so much will spill out of their overflowing pockets. Thirty years of this "trickle-down" bullshit, and here we are.

      Thank you, Ronald Reagan. I can only hope his last days were full of suffering and shame in proportion to that which he has caused.

      As a very smart man said a few days ago, if the Occupy Wall Street movement wants something productive and meaningful to do, it can start by toppling all the statues of Ronald Reagan, the Stalin of today's Wall Street.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    299. Re:Bitcoin by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      The answer to "what does financial speculation produce?" is it produces a marketplace with the odds shifted slightly in favor of longer term and higher value investors.

      You say that as if it was a good thing.

      Most people already know this answer at an intuitive level, just not why it is the case.

      I think just the opposite is true. Most people already know that the financial speculators on Wall Street are doing something sleazy and unethical, they just don't know the details. In fact, the system has been very specifically and systematically corrupted to make sure those details are hard to learn.

      Please don't try to conflate the human ability to "speculate" with what's happening in world financial capitals today. You're talking about definition #1 in the dictionary, and everyone else here is talking about definition #3.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    300. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      *cough* FDIC *cough*

    301. Re:Bitcoin by diamondmagic · · Score: 1

      That means they can coin money and assign it a dollar value. Nowhere in the constitution does it even say they can create legal tender. The states normally would be able to due to the 10th amendment, however even they too are prohibited from creating a legal tender that's not of silver or gold.

      The founders were pretty clear after their experience with the Continental Dollar that the US Constitution does NOT grant the ability to print money. There's dozens of quotes like this most famous one by Thomas Jefferson:

      I sincerely believe... that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity under the name of funding is but swindling futurity on a large scale.

    302. Re:Bitcoin by swalve · · Score: 2

      The point of the FDIC is to stop bank runs. They do this by stepping in before the bank goes tits up, before anyone even knows the bank is in trouble, and cleaning shit up. This is why they do it on Friday afternoons. The come in, clean house, and then on Monday they say "don't worry everyone, your money is here, don't panic". If memory serves, they have never had to pay a claim. They spend their money preventing claims from being necessary.

    303. Re:Bitcoin by picoboy · · Score: 1

      You are most likely already doing that already anyway. What do you think your bank does with your money?

      At the present time they are doing something with it other than lending it out.

    304. Re:Bitcoin by swalve · · Score: 1

      But the Federal Reserve can. They get to buy cash at printing cost and sell it to banks for face value.

    305. Re:Bitcoin by swalve · · Score: 1

      Cite? It is usually over a weekend, and if memory serves, they keep ATMs and debit cards operational the entire time.

    306. Re:Bitcoin by iluvcapra · · Score: 1

      In contrast, a hard money standard sets the value of money in terms of a commodity, like gold.

      If the government will exchange a unit of currency for a fixed amount of gold, the currency is a representative money and the price has been fixed. Gold under such a situation won't exchange on the open market for any price aside from what the government offers, because any difference can simply be arbitraged with Fort Knox. Representative money is price-fixing of a commodity. The price of the commodity no longer fluctuates naturally according to endogenous supply and demand, but is fixed by arbitrary government action. They dictate what how many dollars to the ounce, and nothing in principle keeps them from changing the number, or the composition of the dollar, such as politics fancied -- Congress needed to fund the Civil War, it issued fiay currency and it worked for that purpose. Rural voters wanted bimetalism, they voted for it and got it. Bankers hated silver barons, so they demanded it be stopped and it was stopped.

      Precious metal price standards are just government subsides on mining, creating a buyer of first and last resort for metal regardless of actual industrial demand.

      --
      Don't blame me, I voted for Baltar.
    307. Re:Bitcoin by swalve · · Score: 1

      The Fed's power to inflate money is vastly overshadowed by the power of the economy at large to inflate money via fractional reserve banking. The reserve requirement for banks is something like 5% I think. That means when I deposit $100, the bank can turn around and lend out $95 of it. Leverage rate of 195%. The Fed can only inflate the money supply by issuing bonds at what, 1% per year? That's a leverage rate of 101%, and it takes a whole year for it to happen.

    308. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not government policy that causes the low volatility. It's purchasing power parity and similar economic reasons.

    309. Re:Bitcoin by iluvcapra · · Score: 1

      The major difference being that the Austrians were usually right, and the Keynesians almost always wrong.

      You sound like a Marxist in 1920 denouncing Henry Hazlitt. This is the sort of inept and hectoring form of argumentation we've unfortunately come to expect for the internet libertarian -- the Capitol Hill Babysitting Co-Op cannot be explained, so I'm going to go on for... how long did it take, 30 minutes? ... about how Paul Krugman and anybody that thinks there's such a thing as a multiplier or aggregate demand is a doody head, and Keynesians are always wrong. I don't have to explain why because I have cherry-picked quotes from one Keynesian 10 years ago. You forgot to throw in typical admonition that I "simply do not understand the Real Business Cycle."

      We're trying to talk about a particular problem, but you turn it into a huge argument ad hominem and appeal to your authorities. Particularly hilarious is your drafting of Friedman(!), a monetarist who would disagree with you on just about every position you've taken on hard money -- if you're going to quote monetarists I see your Krugman and raise you an Alan Greenspan. Friedman also didn't particularly agree with Austrians.

      Also the fact of the Great Moderation simply flies in the face of the Austrian account of how a macroeconomy works. It generally can't explain stickiness in prices or wages, it completely fails at creating a model that predicts unemployment. It's complete ignorance of statistics and evidence gathering classes it as, at best, a sort of philosophical discipline. Also, you can only characterize the panics of the 19th century if you only look at price levels and ignore the fact that millions of people lost their savings, their jobs and their businesses in the process. The Long Depression was four years of contraction, nominal wages dropped by half, a quarter of the able bodies were unemployed, who cares if a pound of coal was the same price one month before and one month after?

      (Well, that's easy, rentier capitalists and their pseudo-intellectual spear-carriers cared a great deal...)

      --
      Don't blame me, I voted for Baltar.
    310. Re:Bitcoin by Nursie · · Score: 1

      "If you are making a simple payment, then you aren't converting the bitcoins back into dollars so there's no need to hedge anything."

      But with bitcoins being such a terrible store of value, you'd be stupid not to convert in and out of the currency if what you wanted was a way to make a payment using their unique features.

      Not that I actually do want to use their 'unique features' as I don't really like them.

    311. Re:Bitcoin by Nursie · · Score: 1

      Really should have done, but I'm terrible at following my own financial advice.

      Also I don't want to get any of my money involved in any aspect of a bitcoin related business, there's a solid record of them folding, losing their data (and thus coins) or being outright scams.

    312. Re:Bitcoin by suso · · Score: 1

      Actually its funny that you question the openness because BTC is the most open market I know as far as information goes. I'm often surprised how much information about everything is shared. Its actually fun more than anything and you can geek out on information alone without having to pay extra for that info.

      As for speculation, if you revealed the information that speculators use, then the holding of information would just move one step back because there are always people who want to leverage their position for their own personal gain.

    313. Re:Bitcoin by slashdot_commentator · · Score: 1

      Fiat currency units can be produced at-will (a gov't with a printing press). Precious metal availability is limited what is in existence.

      Only Austrian school economists thinks there is an inherent value to precious metals.

      --
      There is no America. There is no democracy. There is only IBM and AT&T and DuPont, Dow, General Electric, and Exxon
    314. Re:Bitcoin by Jazari · · Score: 1

      When I ask "What do speculators produce?" the answer seems to always be, "Speculators produce liquidity in the market."

      That sounds suspiciously like when my mom used to say "Because I said so."

      Liquidity is important. If you need to sell your investments (real estate, stocks, bonds, ...) today to fund some urgent need, you might not be willing to wait days, weeks, or months. A speculator will step it and give you cash *right now*. Also, he will be willing to pay a market price, whereas you would need to drop your price if you had to unload your investment fast and find a long term investor to buy.

      Speculators also provide warnings that something is coming: speculators did not bring down Enron, they signaled that something was rotten. Speculators have been warning us (through the price system) that oil is becoming scarce too.
      In this way, they provide time for the consumers to adjust more gradually than would otherwise be possible.

    315. Re:Bitcoin by Tekgno · · Score: 1

      That can't happen anywhere near as easily, Bitcoin is designed so that only a limited amount of new bitcoins are produced over a given timespan. You can't exactly decide more bitcoins are needed and just make a pile more overnight.

    316. Re:Bitcoin by nedlohs · · Score: 1

      If you are making a payment you don't need to convert back so you only convert dollars to bitcoins and then send the bitcoins to someone in exchange for whatever the payment is for. Hence you don't hold the bitcoins, hence no need to hedge.

    317. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      and whether or not your money has any worth if they have to go on a printing spree ...

      as opposed to bitcoin where everyone can go on a printing spree.

    318. Re:Bitcoin by cthulhu11 · · Score: 1

      By the time I got the transfer, it had lost almost half of its value. Now imagine if that would constantly happen with your real money.

      It's happened to me. ESPP that lied about how it worked.

    319. Re:Bitcoin by prefect42 · · Score: 1

      I wasn't specifically meaning the US govt (the UK one was far more in my thoughts). You don't think more than 1 trillion USD of QE is enough to have an inflationary effect?

      --

      jh

    320. Re:Bitcoin by DrXym · · Score: 1

      It does fit the definition of scam. It was frequently promoted as "investment" offering free money to people on the basis of growth of those investing later. It's a ponzi albeit one without a centralized a figure. A crowd sourced ponzi. It incentivized people especially early adopters to lie through their teeth about the viability of the currency, it's stability, it's attractiveness as an investment in order to lure more buyers in presumably so the early ones could exit. That's why everyone was hoarding coins instead of spending them because they perceived it to be an investment.

    321. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Gives me a return and guarentees my money will be available?

      Both of which come from them investing in speculative ventures. Or in the case of the USA, is backed by the taxpayer when the speculation turns out to have been an elaborate shell game referred to by insiders as "Derivatives".
      But that taxpayer backing is also speculative, it's just that you're speculating on the overall performance of the entire economy and taxpayer base instead of focusing on just one (or a few) select areas of investment.

    322. Re:Bitcoin by ynp7 · · Score: 1

      Sure, but bottle caps will go throw the roof!

    323. Re:Bitcoin by ynp7 · · Score: 1

      So you're saying Wall Street bankers fried my motherboard and video card that one time?

    324. Re:Bitcoin by icebraining · · Score: 1

      It was frequently promoted as "investment" offering free money to people on the basis of growth of those investing later.

      Where? Show me where the Bitcoins devs did that.

      If I have stocks of some company, I can lie and say they'll gain 5000% so promote a bubble, but the company itself doesn't turn into a scam because of that.

      So unless it was Nakamoto or one of the other devs to do that, it's not a scam.

    325. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, of course.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_run

    326. Re:Bitcoin by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      I transferred some cash to BitCoins and back on Friday and it was paid out to me on Sunday. By the time I got the transfer, it had lost almost half of its value. Now imagine if that would constantly happen with your real money.

      And just how is this is different to any two other currencies? It's a problem that any multiple-currency transactions face.

      Having just completed last months expenses claim, in three currencies, with a requirement from BeanCounter Central that every transaction have the exchange rate for that day included in the calculation ... the fluctuation of one currency against another is absolutely normal.

      Is this news to you? Why? Have you never dealt with currency transactions before?

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    327. Re:Bitcoin by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1
      I should have known that you would use the abuses of a perfectly legitimate market mechanism as evidence that it is evil,

      So speculators are the guys who make a buck off other people's pain because we're so dysfunctional as a society that we can't figure out how to get help to people who have suffered a disaster other than stuffing some parasite's pockets full of money so he can charge exorbitant prices to people whose lives have just collapsed.

      The thing that you seem to be overlooking is that moving those supplies from an area that did not have a natural disaster to one that did is going to generate some pain in the area where the supplies are moved from. The suppliers in the area without a natural disaster, also, only stock the amount of supplies that ordinarily are used in a certain period of time. If those supplies are moved to the area of natural disaster, now people in the other area who need those supplies are unable to get them. The only way a speculator in this situation will be able to get away with charging a truly exorbitant price is if the government limits who can bring supplies into the area. Without government intervention, some other speculator will recognize that there is room to profit beneath his price and take advantage of it.
      I know, you think profit is evil. After all, if people are suffering, why should people who have stuff those suffering need not suffer as well and be forced to give that stuff to the people who are suffering? After all, what's the big deal if, the next time a natural disaster strikes, no one has the excess resources to move supplies from a region not effected to the region where the disaster struck?

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    328. Re:Bitcoin by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      "... anybody that thinks there's such a thing as a multiplier or aggregate demand is a doody head, and Keynesians are always wrong. I don't have to explain why because I have cherry-picked quotes from one Keynesian 10 years ago."

      You can mischaracterize my comments all you like, but it doesn't make any kind of real argument. I did neither of those things. Really. "doody head"? Who denied multipliers or aggregate demands? Where did this stuff come from? It certainly has nothing to do with anything I actually wrote.

      As for Krugman, I was not the one who brought him up. The reason comments from years ago were chosen was because it was about how accurate his predictions have been; it would be useless to try to either prove or disprove something he said yesterday. If you don't understand that, I am not the one being an idiot here.

      And that was just a one example, easily found in about 30 seconds on the internet. Do you REALLY want me to spend some time and actually go into depth about how wrong Krugman has been over the years? I would not want to embarrass you.

      As for "Keynesians are always wrong", that is pretty much what I wrote. Not always. But almost. If you feel so strongly about it, show me where Keynesian (or Keynesian-style) economists accurately predicted even ONE major economic event ahead of time. Just one. Name calling and phrases like "doody head" are just infantile. If you want to win an argument, then credibly refute my claim that they haven't predicted a damned thing.

      "We're trying to talk about a particular problem, but you turn it into a huge argument ad hominem and appeal to your authorities."

      Yes, I was discussing a particular "problem". It is one you stated, and my reply was to a direct quote. Here, since your memory seems so short I will quote it for you again:

      ""And I would add that most Austrian responses to the Co-Op problem involve just as much prediction and guessing as the Keynesian account.""

      And I replied with specific, verifiable examples of predictions that each made. No appeal to authority, no ad hominem. They are facts that you can look up yourself. Even my comments about Krugman were not ad hominem. They were not about him as a person, they were about demonstrably false statements that he made, which are in the public record. Please, if you want to make a decent argument, learn what "ad hominem" means.

      "Particularly hilarious is your drafting of Friedman(!), a monetarist who would disagree with you on just about every position you've taken on hard money -- if you're going to quote monetarists I see your Krugman and raise you an Alan Greenspan. Friedman also didn't particularly agree with Austrians."

      I mentioned Friedman because he was the first one to give Keynesians what they considered to be a plausible explanation for stagflation. I did not say he was right, only that the Keynesians thought he might be. The whole point there was that the Keynesians were provably wrong, and even after the fact could not find a way to modify their own theory to conform to reality. Somebody else had to do it for them. I don't give a damn whether Friedman was a monetarist. As far as I am concerned, that is a point in his favor. Monetarists have been right a hell of a lot more often than Keynesians have, too.

      "Also the fact of the Great Moderation simply flies in the face of the Austrian account of how a macroeconomy works. It generally can't explain stickiness in prices or wages"

      Not enough is known about "Great Moderation" to draw many conclusions from it. Certainly government and policy makers have claimed credit for it, but both 2001 and 2008 put the lie to THAT idea. In fact one school of thought is that the so-called Great Moderation lulled people into a false sense of security, and directly led them to engage in risky practices that CAUSED bubbles. Thos

    329. Re:Bitcoin by andersa · · Score: 1

      Not to mention bottlecaps.

    330. Re:Bitcoin by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      "f the government will exchange a unit of currency for a fixed amount of gold, the currency is a representative money and the price has been fixed."

      Again, you have 100% missed the point. Do you know what a dependent variable is? An independent variable?

      "Representative money is price-fixing of a commodity."

      No, it isn't. It is defining money in terms of that commodity. They are not the same. You are confusing price and value.

      These are opposite situations. In the situation you describe, gold is "fixed in price", and defined in terms of dollars. With a gold standard, dollars are fixed in value and defined in terms of gold. They are not even remotely similar.

      "Rural voters wanted bimetalism, they voted for it and got it. Bankers hated silver barons, so they demanded it be stopped and it was stopped."

      Yes, that is true, but has absolutely nothing to do with the subject at hand, which is the definition of a hard monetary standard versus "price fixing". Don't you understand that even with a fixed price, the value of the commodity can change?

      But apparently you don't. I'm not going to spend yet more time trying to explain it to you. I suggest you go pick up a high-school level book on economics.

    331. Re:Bitcoin by Lumpy · · Score: 1

      not ammunition... brass shells, primers and loading bench tools. making lead is easy. (get those molds too while you are at it)

      Being the guy that can reload shells will give you an instant business, and never ending flow of food and supplies.

      --
      Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
    332. Re:Bitcoin by Lumpy · · Score: 1

      There have always been a lot of fools that are attracted to shiny. rare shiny is desireable. so you will be able to trade it.
      It's why gold started out as a trade item, people distracted by shiny like it.

      --
      Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
    333. Re:Bitcoin by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      I should have known...

      I bet that's the story of your life.

      After all, if people are suffering, why should people who have stuff those suffering need not suffer as well and be forced to give that stuff to the people who are suffering?

      Do you really believe that we are suffering from a shortage of "stuff"? We are an amazingly prosperous country. Even in today's economy, there has never been a country nearly as prosperous. Yet decades (three, exactly) of funneling all that prosperity into a very small fragment of the population has created artificial shortages of "stuff" because most of that prosperity is sitting frozen in offshore accounts and corporate cash balances.

      The concentration of wealth is so much greater than it was half a century ago that people who would have been comfortably middle class back then are being forced to cannibalize their own security and their own future, despite the enormous benefit of automation and great productivity gains.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    334. Re:Bitcoin by LordLimecat · · Score: 1

      If I have less than $250,000 in a bank, then I am guarenteed my money back. I suppose you can argue that guarentees can be broken, which is true, but so can any contract.

    335. Re:Bitcoin by PopeRatzo · · Score: 0

      Actually its funny that you question the openness because BTC is the most open market I know as far as information goes.

      Oh, I'm not talking about bitcoin. That's a trivial joke.

      I'm talking about serious financial speculation, not a nerd hobby.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    336. Re:Bitcoin by LordLimecat · · Score: 1

      A few more posts like that and you can cement your reputation as being unable to hold a civil conversation with someone without vulgarities and ad hominems.

    337. Re:Bitcoin by LordLimecat · · Score: 1

      When I ask for my money, who is returning it to me, the bank or the government?

      Can you cite a period of time in the last 50 years when your answer would be different?

    338. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So don't put more than $250,000 in any one bank.

    339. Re:Bitcoin by makomk · · Score: 1

      Buying Bitcoins often does involve sending money internationally, so I suspect that he may well have done so at least once.

    340. Re:Bitcoin by Nursie · · Score: 1

      The point is that the other person needs to convert, and by the time you've sent money to an exchange, bought bitcoins (with an exchange fee added), sent the coins (potentially with a transaction fee levied by the network), the other person receives them, converts them to their currency with another fee etc etc.

      Yes, it's true that you nobody needs to hold bitcoins for all that long.

    341. Re:Bitcoin by Nursie · · Score: 1

      "In a very real sense, it's the people who predicted Bitcoin wasn't worth a shit that are at fault for its demise."

      Awesome! I helped to kill* it!

      (*assuming it does actually die, it may not)

    342. Re:Bitcoin by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      Yes and from previous posts you have made your "solution" to this problem is more of what created it, give the government more power. The same government whose intervention allowed speculators to charge exorbitant prices by limiting the ability of other people to compete with them. The same government who encouraged speculators to make bad bets and then bailed them out when those bets went bad. It is people like you who turned to two of the architects of the financial meltdown (Chris Dodd and Barney Frank) to write the law that is supposed to be designed to prevent the next one.

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    343. Re:Bitcoin by makomk · · Score: 1

      Where? Show me where the Bitcoins devs did that.

      The Bitcoin devs didn't, but they didn't really do much or any promotion of Bitcoin anyway. The Bitcoin community on the other hand very definitely promoted it as a way to make easy money, and they were how most people found out about Bitcoins. (Combine that with the annoying habit the main Bitcoin forums had now and then of deleting negative comments as "trolls", and...)

    344. Re:Bitcoin by makomk · · Score: 1

      The value of Bitcoins has absolutely NOTHING to do with the prices listed on mtgox and other exchanges. The value of Bitcoins is what goods and services you can get for Bitcoins.

      Which in turn is linked to the price listed on Mt Gox. Most Bitcoin merchants - including those on the infamous Silk Road marketplace - actually set their prices in US dollars and use scripts to automatically update the Bitcoin pricing. All their costs are in either US dollars or a local currency that's much more stable against dollars than it is against bitcoins. If they set a fixed bitcoin price they'd end up selling goods at a potentially very substantial loss until they managed to update them.

    345. Re:Bitcoin by nedlohs · · Score: 1

      The other person having to convert is irrelevent. Maybe they are collecting bitcoins anyway.

      The issue was losing money because of holding bitcoins for three days - something you don't need to do to make a transaction. You for some reason decided that the measures you would probably want to take in that rather unusual case should apply "in order to make a simple payment" which is ridiculous since none of the risks it prevents apply to that at all.

    346. Re:Bitcoin by JasterBobaMereel · · Score: 1

      Oversimplistic perhaps, but inflation is inflation and the price of bread (along with other usual commodities) is used by governments to work out what the inflation rate is

      Prices on the stock exchange vary and can be quite volatile, but in most cases these are around a fairly stable average or slow trend in one direction

      Pensions and similar are normally an aggregate of many shares/bonds etc simply to make them more stable than the individual parts, and tend to be mostly made up of the slow growth, low risk types ...

      The riskiest funds are the most volatile where you can make money easily but also lose it just as easily, most currencies are not in this group, because they are backed by a government, or tied to a more stable currency

      Note the Stock market crash of 2009 - "By March 6, 2009 the DJIA had dropped 54% to 6469 (before beginning to recover) from its peak of 14164 on October 9, 2007, a span of 17 months" - BitCoin lost half it's value in a day and is still plummeting ...

      --
      Puteulanus fenestra mortis
    347. Re:Bitcoin by Surt · · Score: 1

      Right, it's about as good as insurance generally is, though they are not required to hold a reserve anywhere close to what an insurance company is required to hold. So actually, significantly less good as a guaranty than an insurance policy. And insurance policies never fail to pay out in a major disaster as we all know.

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    348. Re:Bitcoin by Surt · · Score: 1

      That's a generous definition of not paying a claim. They put money into banks that otherwise could not handle withdrawal requests, satisfying those withdrawal requests. To me, that's paying claims (and the insurance industry would certainly consider it so). So much money in 2009/2010, they almost ran out (and would have had to tap the $500Billion guarantee they have from the government, and when that runs out, the real fun begins). They just barely avoided hitting zero thanks to the $700Billion bailout.

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    349. Re:Bitcoin by petermgreen · · Score: 1

      Yes i've taken a look at the international exchange rates and at least among major currencies they do change a bit but not by anything like the ammount bitcoin does. When a currency does change rapidly relative to the other currencies it's usually indicative that the shit has hit the fan in the country that owns that currency.

      http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=qkchart&symbol=FX%5EUSDEUR

      http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360ztgMzm1g10zm2g25

      Afaict bitcoin's real problem has been that the vast majority of it's users are people looking to make a quick buck through either mining or speculation. Not people who were actually looking to use it as a trading medium and even those using it as a trading medium were only using it for a tiny fraction of their transactions.

      --
      note: i'm known as plugwash most places but i screwd up registering that here somehow in the past and now can't register
    350. Re:Bitcoin by jdavidb · · Score: 1

      I agree that bitcoins are a commodity in a sense. They do provide some value. They have provided quite a bit of entertainment and education for me. They may also provide value in the way they facilitate certain types of transactions (i.e., private irreversible transfers, or international transfers, or transfers not involving a monopolistic third party who gets a cut, or transfers not involving any government currency, or ...). Whether any of these things makes them valuable enough to ultimately serve as a currency is a question I don't consider to be answered.

    351. Re:Bitcoin by Khyber · · Score: 1

      "I am part of the 1%"

      You're below me, that much I can guarantee. You rely upon me for your food.

      Also, just because you completed economics don't mean you're even close to being aware of the thermodynamic limits of economics.

      Bitcoin actually bothers with the thermodynamic aspect.

      No other currency does.

      This is why BC is more feasible than any other currency.

      You think your economics education is worth something? Better look at our country and try that one again, because sooner or later, your position in the 1% is going to drop. (In the meantime, I'm globally secure, so no worries here.)

      --
      Still waiting on Serviscope_minor to wake up to fucking reality and realize that Jessica Price isn't going to fuck him.
    352. Re:Bitcoin by XDirtypunkX · · Score: 1

      Or you could cut out shareholders all together and have employee owned companies. Then you have employees with an incentive to both produce a profit and to take care of/not fire the employees.

    353. Re:Bitcoin by XDirtypunkX · · Score: 1

      Or you could have employee owned companies and get rid of shareholders all together. Give the control to people who have a stake in and add value to the company, instead of people looking for a short term speculative gain or simply turning money into more money.

    354. Re:Bitcoin by XDirtypunkX · · Score: 1

      Most currencies are fairly stable locally, but are less stable internationally relative to other currencies. A shift of a few percentage points in a day isn't unheard of.

    355. Re:Bitcoin by sexconker · · Score: 1

      The value of Bitcoins has absolutely NOTHING to do with the prices listed on mtgox and other exchanges. The value of Bitcoins is what goods and services you can get for Bitcoins.

      Which in turn is linked to the price listed on Mt Gox. Most Bitcoin merchants - including those on the infamous Silk Road marketplace - actually set their prices in US dollars and use scripts to automatically update the Bitcoin pricing. All their costs are in either US dollars or a local currency that's much more stable against dollars than it is against bitcoins. If they set a fixed bitcoin price they'd end up selling goods at a potentially very substantial loss until they managed to update them.

      Every single person I have exchanged Bitcoins with has not pegged anything to mtgox or any other exchange.

      If you're trying to use bitcoins to buy amazon gift cards you're a moron, a speculator, and I'm glad you got taken for a ride.
      If you're using bitcoins for private transactions for good and services, then you're doing it right.
      If the person you're selling to automatically pegs things to an index, that's their issue. Their prices are so volatile all anyone ever does is buy bitcoins on an exchange and then send them off as payment. Might as well be using your credit card to buy drugs directly at that point. Fucking morons.

    356. Re:Bitcoin by iluvcapra · · Score: 1

      I guess your argument would make sense to me if I accepted that there was such a thing as objective value.

      In the situation you describe, gold is "fixed in price", and defined in terms of dollars. With a gold standard, dollars are fixed in value and defined in terms of gold.

      I'm not sure what "fixed in value" means empirically, however I know that in a gold standard gold is absolutely fixed in price, gold and currency are always convertible. All market actors have a different value for an ounce of gold -- it's worthless to me in use, it's worth a lot to a dentist, to a miner it's worth their labor in exchange -- it cannot be made equally valuable to all by fiat. This is also complicated by the fact that the 1000th ounce of gold you own is always far less valuable than the first due to its marginal utility. Please expand on the theory of value you're using.

      I'm not going to spend yet more time trying to explain it to you.

      Roll your eyes all you like.

      --
      Don't blame me, I voted for Baltar.
    357. Re:Bitcoin by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      "I guess your argument would make sense to me if I accepted that there was such a thing as objective value."

      And again you missed the boat. Not once did I say anything about "objective" value. I am referring to market value only.

      "I guess your argument would make sense to me if I accepted that there was such a thing as objective value."

      And again, you aren't getting it. It has nothing to do with "objective" value. Here... I'll try to use your own comments to make it clear to you, one more time. If that fails, I give up.

      "All market actors have a different value for an ounce of gold -- it's worthless to me in use, it's worth a lot to a dentist, to a miner it's worth their labor in exchange -- it cannot be made equally valuable to all by fiat."

      Precisely. Gold has a "market" value. That's an aggregate value based on its average worth to a large number of people. Right? There is no kind of "objective" anything there, or any weird or unusual "theory" involved. We're just talking market value. Which can change, as we all know.

      If the value of dollars are based on gold, then the market value of money will go up and down as the value of gold in the market goes up and down? Yes? I never claimed that it was an absolutely fixed value. Of course it varies. The value I am referring to here is simply the amount of gold it would take to directly trade for other things.

      But if the value of gold is based on dollars, then the market value of gold will go up and down as dollars go up and down in value. Just like in the other situation, except that in one situation you are using gold as the standard, and in the other situation you are using dollars as the standard. Okay? The standard means that the value of all other things will be based on the value of that thing.

      Where the difference comes in, is that fiat dollars are not even remotely as stable as gold in their market value. So when you have a gold standard, the value of your money is defined by something that usually remains rock-solid in real market value (the amount it takes to trade for other goods).

      But when you set a fixed price in dollars, the only thing you are tying to market value is the market value of dollars, which varies wildly, sometimes from one day to the next. Your standard (the dollar) remains as volatile as ever. Nothing has changed, except that now you have defined the price of gold. At a fixed dollar price, when dollars go up and down in value, then the gold would go up and down in value to match. It no longer reflects the market value of the gold, instead you are forcing an artificial value on it because of the changing value of the dollar.

      Which is unrealistic. Which is why nobody does it.

      So in the one situation your monetary standard is something that tends to change very little in value over time. In the other situation your monetary standard is something that can change (has at times changed drastically), overnight.

      The very fact that nobody fixes gold prices anymore is tacit admission that a gold standard is better than fiat money.

    358. Re:Bitcoin by PopeRatzo · · Score: 0

      Yes and from previous posts you have made your "solution" to this problem is more of what created it, give the government more power.

      I have never suggested "giving the government more power". It already has all the power it needs. It just needs to use it.

      two of the architects of the financial meltdown (Chris Dodd and Barney Frank)

      How were Chris Dodd and Barney Frank responsible for the meltdown when the Republicans were in the majority in the Senate when the meltdown occurred and for the four years before?

      I remember you now. You're the guy who never lets facts get in the way of his huffing and puffing. I thought I forbade you from ever speaking to me some time ago.

      You're either badly misinformed or just lying. Now get out of my sight.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    359. Re:Bitcoin by iluvcapra · · Score: 1

      And I replied with specific, verifiable examples of predictions that each made. No appeal to authority, no ad hominem.

      Quoting people's opinions is an appeal to authority. The problem is that Laffer and Krugman can be wrong in specific cases but that neither makes their theories incorrect nor does it make people they disagree with correct. It's negative argumentation; your previous comment contained no positive argument for your beliefs at all, which I found remarkable. I was expecting a counter-scenario where you critique Krugman's solution and offer your own, but you never did, and still don't. Pointing out that people get things wrong isn't sufficient, nor are claims (unsubstantiated bare assertions on your part, really) that somehow someone gets things 80% more right than someone else. A stopped 12-hour clock tells the right time 100% more times in the day than a stopped 24-hour clock but neither are correct.

      And I would add that most Austrian responses to the Co-Op problem involve just as much prediction and guessing as the Keynesian account.

      Note that this was a subjunctive to my actual question, how to resolve the paradox of thrift. You never really did that, and I didn't challenge the quality of Austrian prediction here. The challenge is that both sides must make positive statements about the future and whichever course of action is taken, the monetary authority will set rules based on those predictions. What I was trying to attack was (what I would consider) the paradox in the consequentialism of Austrian theory, sorry it was a bit sloppy but I was expecting you'd respond to the meat and not the parsley of the argument.

      The interesting thing here that ties into the gold standard question is that sometimes hard money advocates would try to characterize a gold standard as somehow not a regulation, or a law that is somehow subsumed in natural law or property rights, when it's really no such thing. When Bryan characterized the farmer as being nailed to a cross of gold, that's how he and a lot of people felt, and the government was doing the nailing; sure, sure rich bankers were holding the gold, but it was the state that was coming in and kicking people off their land at gunpoint. The state decided it was going to enforce certain values and used violence, the fact that the particular value was "hard money," versus alcohol prohibition, abortion prohibition, drug prohibition... doesn't really make a difference.

      People like Hayek and Mises generally consider it sufficient to say that force is justified if you're protecting people's wealth, which I always found a suspicious and rather arbitrary place to draw the line on state violence.

      Have a nice day.

      I don't believe that for a second, kiddo.

      --
      Don't blame me, I voted for Baltar.
    360. Re:Bitcoin by iluvcapra · · Score: 1

      I knew I still had'ya.

      I never claimed that it was an absolutely fixed value.

      Well, except when you said "With a gold standard, dollars are fixed in value." If you're not using market value, what definition of value were you using here?

      So when you have a gold standard, the value of your money is defined by something that usually remains rock-solid in real market value (the amount it takes to trade for other goods).

      "Usually" is doing a lot of work here. I don't see how the solidity of the value of gold with regard to other goods aligns with the fact that the price of an ounce of gold is now over 500% what it was 10 years ago, yet core inflation has only been 23%, and even energy has only risen 90%. You can criticize these statistics but it would require you to assert a conspiracy on the part of the government.

      The value I am referring to here is simply the amount of gold it would take to directly trade for other things.

      Which is what we call the "price" of those respective other things. That it is denominated in a mass of gold does not make it a value and not a price.

      The very fact that nobody fixes gold prices anymore is tacit admission that a gold standard is better than fiat money.

      Either that, or they didn't want hard money, for either Keynesian or Monetarist reasons. You're presuming malice when stupidity would be sufficient to your case, but alas, very difficult to substantiate.

      But when you set a fixed price in dollars, the only thing you are tying to market value is the market value of dollars, which varies wildly, sometimes from one day to the next. ... At a fixed dollar price, when dollars go up and down in value, then the gold would go up and down in value to match.

      But dollars can't go up and down in value because they are freely convertible to gold, and your thesis is that gold has rock-solid value. This counterexample you're giving is arguing that the value of gold is a fixed quantity, but the value of dollars is not, yet they are the same thing in a representative money system. Demand for dollars is a proxy for demand for gold and vice versa.

      I mean, like, think of it legislatively. When the US had a gold standard, the law said, in so many words, "A dollar is redeemable for X troy ounces of gold." Is this the sort of legislation you would propose? How does my characterization of a gold standard differ from yours, in terms of the law you'd write?

      --
      Don't blame me, I voted for Baltar.
    361. Re:Bitcoin by LordLimecat · · Score: 1

      Your argument seems to be "nothing is certain in a world where men break their promises", which is true. But according to this, its about as sure as things get:
      Since the start of the FDIC in 1934, no depositor has ever lost a penny of insured deposits.

      So comparisons with insurance, and statements like

      [It's] significantly less good as a guaranty than an insurance policy.

      seem to fall flat.

    362. Re:Bitcoin by Attila+Dimedici · · Score: 1

      Chris Dodd and Barney Frank both were involved with setting up the situation that led to the meltdown starting when Democrats controlled Congress. There were Republicans involved in that as well. Chris Dodd and Barney Frank both said that there were no problems in the mortgage market (in particular the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) as late as 2006 (and possibly later, but I don't want to take the time to look that up).

      --
      The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
    363. Re:Bitcoin by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1
      You didn't "have me". I just figured that since you obviously don't seem to understand this simple concept, I would give one more try at education here. I'm all about education. But I don't know too many people who have that hard a time understanding this concept. For all I know, you're just trolling me.

      ""With a gold standard, dollars are fixed in value." If you're not using market value, what definition of value were you using here?"

      Fixed in value in relation to gold of course. The market value of gold (market value as defined by what amount of gold is necessary to trade for other commodities.) What did you think I meant?

      "I don't see how the solidity of the value of gold with regard to other goods aligns with the fact that the price of an ounce of gold is now over 500% what it was 10 years ago,"

      See? There you go again. You just can't get it out of your head that something can have a VALUE that is not directly related to its dollar PRICE. That dollars can vary in VALUE in relation to other things... which is why PRICES change.

      The value I am referring to here is simply the amount of gold it would take to directly trade for other things.

      "Which is what we call the "price" of those respective other things."

      ONLY if gold is the standard for money, and you are talking about "price" in dollars. Otherwise, as the price of gold varied, that price would not necessarily have any relationship to the price of wheat, say, because wheat could also vary in price at rates quite different from the rate of change of the price of gold.

      "But dollars can't go up and down in value because they are freely convertible to gold, and your thesis is that gold has rock-solid value."

      I stated was that it was "rock-solid" in comparison to fiat dollars. I also clearly stated that it can and does change.

      But in fact this is where you are wrong, and where you are failing to see the difference between an independent variable and a dependent variable.

      If you fix the price of gold, dollars are still your standard. Dollars can and do go up and down in value, sometimes rapidly and relatively unpredictably. If you tie gold to a fixed amount of dollars, then the value of gold would be defined in terms of dollars, and the value of gold would go up and down as the dollar did. There is nothing there to fix the value of dollars, because dollars are your standard... your independent variable. Instead, what you have done is make gold go up and down (in value) in ways that it would never do in a free market.

      To put it a different way: if you attach the dollar to the market value (as defined by other goods) of gold, then the dollar can only vary in value at the same rate gold does. Which is usually very slow. If, instead, you try to tie the value of gold to the value of the dollar (which is what you are doing when you fix the price), then gold can vary in value at the same rate as the dollar... which can be very fast indeed. Which, as I stated before, is ridiculous because it completely detaches gold from any kind of realistic free market value. You haven't actually improved anything. Which is the reason nobody does it. You can't have gold be worth the same amount as platinum one week, then only worth its weight in dirt the next week, then who knows what the week after that. Which is a bit of an exaggeration but it's to make the point.

      "When the US had a gold standard, the law said, in so many words, 'A dollar is redeemable for X troy ounces of gold.' Is this the sort of legislation you would propose? How does my characterization of a gold standard differ from yours, in terms of the law you'd write?"

      That's not the same question, and not what we were discussing. You were saying that a gold standard is the same as setting a fixed price for gold. But you still don't seem to see that one is

    364. Re:Bitcoin by WorBlux · · Score: 1

      Right, in fact any single place is a bad place to but your life savings. Spread it out and hedge the risks against each other. And for bit-coin specifically it's still trying to establish a history of value by actually being used in trade, which should smooth things out a bit.

    365. Re:Bitcoin by WorBlux · · Score: 1

      It's not a half life, it can easily go up again. In fact if you want to get into bit-coin now is a pretty good time to be buying.

    366. Re:Bitcoin by WorBlux · · Score: 1

      Yes at the moment there are not a lot of transaction denominated in bitcoin but there are a few, and yes this is what needs to happen to stability to occur for bitcoin. However no currency has ever just come into the world fully formed, they are either based on a specific measure of a physical good or pegged to another currency. The U.S. dollar was originally based on the Spanish milled dollar, also known as pieces of eight.

      Legal Status... helpful but not neccessary.

      You can't measure value. (It's ordinal, not cardinal) The best you can do is establish ratios at any given moment.The trick of money is that it lets you do it indirectly. If people suddenly forgot the history of prices in dollars, it would be a very hard process to re-establish it's value. The reason people value the dollar is what they expect to buy in the future with it, and they base this estimation on what they could buy just a day ago. They then act to adjust their cash holding accordingly

      Also no reason you couldn't calculate a GDP figure for bitcoin.

    367. Re:Bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Bitcoin could get as stable as real world currencies, but for that to happen you need lots of people to use it. But I'm not convinced it will rise above being a mere curiosity for a geeky few.

    368. Re:Bitcoin by suso · · Score: 1

      Nerd hobbies have a history of becoming mainstream successes.

    369. Re:Bitcoin by makomk · · Score: 1

      For one-off private trades, maybe not - those usually tend to happen over a short enough period that the person selling just sets a price in Bitcoins and hopes the value of them won't change too much. Pretty much all the longer-term sellers of goods end up setting their prices in US dollars though. A few have tried to just set fixed prices in Bitcoins but they ended up giving up because the variation in the value of Bitcoins made their prices first ridiculously high and then lower than the cost of materials, and this was for quite high-margin businesses too.

    370. Re:Bitcoin by kyrio · · Score: 1

      Yes, I do call you a moron, because you are a moron.

      Well Done!

  2. bitbubble? by alphatel · · Score: 1

    Eerily resembles the Nasdaq chart from 99 through '02

    --
    When the foot seeks the place of the head, the line is crossed. Know your place. Keep your place. Be a shoe.
  3. Speculation by Hentes · · Score: 2

    The majority of bitcoins is in the hands of a handful who cash in large quantities from time to time thus crashing the market.

    1. Re:Speculation by vlm · · Score: 1

      The majority of bitcoins is in the hands of a handful who cash in large quantities from time to time thus crashing the market.

      This is very insightful, from someone who is obviously also in the BTC economy as I am. I'm getting disillusioned with BTC because we're creating a new set of 1%ers, these being the guys with server farms full of GPU cards. I love the idea of BTC, but I'm completely uninterested in making those guys billionaires.

      The other inherent problem, is the protocol design tries pretty hard to make the rate of BTC production mostly constant over time. The problem is people are hoarding BTC "to eventually get rich" and occasionally cashing out. So with a mostly constant absolute rate of real world transactions, and the number of coins piling up faster than transaction rate can grow, deflation seems inevitable. At least until the last coin is mined.

      A protocol that tried to hold the velocity per BTC constant by varying difficulty by transactions seen, thus varying production would be somewhat more stable.

      BTC is a pretty cruddy monetary system... Its also the best one out there at this time.

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    2. Re:Speculation by Lord+Bitman · · Score: 1

      So you want your decentralised and anonymous system to vary the payout based on how many transactions are processed?
      I think I found a flaw in the plan.

      --
      -- 'The' Lord and Master Bitman On High, Master Of All
    3. Re:Speculation by Zironic · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Best one out there? Handwritten IOU notes and shiny sea shells are both more stable and more useful currencies for actual use.

      Bitcoin objectively worse as a currency then any other in current use.

    4. Re:Speculation by Therilith · · Score: 1

      The other inherent problem, is the protocol design tries pretty hard to make the rate of BTC production mostly constant over time.

      Actually, the system has been designed to reduce the production/time to 50% of what it used to be (25BTC instead of 50BTC/10 min IIRC) pretty soon.

      https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/FAQ#What.27s_the_current_total_number_of_Bitcoins_in_existence.3F

    5. Re:Speculation by TobascoKid · · Score: 1

      I'm less than convinced by there being an upper limit to the amount of bitcoins that will ever be created. Look at Spain before the New World was founded - they didn't have enough money because they lacked enough precious metals so they had a terrible economy compared to places that did have an adequate money supply (like the middle east). It's hard to see how the bitcoin economy wouldn't eventually dry up, especially as there no new world to get more bitcoins from.

      --
      At some point, somewhere, the entire internet will be found to be illegal.
    6. Re:Speculation by vlm · · Score: 1

      So you want your decentralised and anonymous system to vary the payout based on how many transactions are processed?
      I think I found a flaw in the plan.

      Not necessarily... People who hold the most BTC can artificially "stir the pot" the easiest, yet they lose the most when the currency is diluted. People who hold the least BTC would benefit the most from more BTC being generated, yet they have the least ability to "stir the pot". I'm "stir the pot to make BTC" is a bit oversimplified.

      There is a certain inherent limited flood control that discourages people from trading the same 1 BTC a million times per second, due to transactional costs. If those costs raised to discourage such behavior...

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    7. Re:Speculation by Ultra64 · · Score: 1

      From the bitcoin wiki:

      One Bitcoin is divisible down to eight decimal places. There are really 2,099,999,997,690,000 (just over 2 quadrillion) maximum possible atomic units in the bitcoin design.

      The value of "1 BTC" represents 100,000,000 of these. In other words, each is divisible by up to 10^8.

      As the value of the unit of 1 BTC grows too large to be useful for day to day transactions, people can start dealing in smaller units, such as milli-bitcoins (mBTC) or micro-bitcoins (μBTC).

    8. Re:Speculation by geekoid · · Score: 1

      "BTC is a pretty cruddy monetary system... Its also the best one out there at this time."

      No, it's not. It has serious economic flaws. It fails to adopt any economic knowledge, It's unavailable to people without special equipment, and it is ripe for scams.

      " At least until the last coin is mined."

      And when that happens, it will be useless.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    9. Re:Speculation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      its not the server farm guys. its the early, early addopters.

      the speed of farming increases dramatically the more coins there are, but it was very damn fast at the start. so assuming I announce the system today, if the next person to join joins tomorrow, i can likely have thousands of bitcoins already, without GPU farm.

      hell, I could just mine a bunch and then announce in a week, I would have gathered thousands upon thousands of bitcoins, the first people to join would all mine a lot slower then me initially.

      and I do believe that is what happened here, we got a scam which may actually work, but still is a scam. the people that made bitcoin mined at a rate much faster, so even without having to compromise the system, they still earned a lot on it.

    10. Re:Speculation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This was always the most likely outcome of the design. They were proud that it was a deflationary currency, despite the fact that that encourages hoarding.

      People who come up with a neat crypto / hashcash idea are not necessarily great in economics.

      Personally, I mined quite a few with a GPU back in August 2010, and sold most of them for $.06 as I made them because I didn't really believe that it would take off. I kept a few and sold them later at $3, but I considered that to be a lucky turn of events. Sure if I would have held them all until the peak I would have had enough to pay off my house, but it just as easily could have been worth nothing.

    11. Re:Speculation by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      BTC is a pretty cruddy monetary system... Its also the best one out there at this time.

      Maybe if you are a master international terrorist living in Somalia or something.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    12. Re:Speculation by timholman · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The majority of bitcoins is in the hands of a handful who cash in large quantities from time to time thus crashing the market.

      Excellent point, and in fact Bitcoin may be one of the cleverest moneymaking scams in recent memory.

      No one knows who Satoshi Nakamoto, the purported creator of the Bitcoin protocol, really is. Assuming Bitcoin ever achieved widespread adoption, he and a handful of early adopters would become the richest people on earth by default. When I pointed this out to a Bitcoin "true believer", his response was along the lines of "Well, he's a genius and deserves it." Yes, but if in fact "Mr. Nakamoto" is simply a syndicate of very clever scammers, then we would effectively be turning over a huge portion of the world's wealth to a criminal enterprise. No government is EVER going to allow that to happen.

      No cryptographic currency is ever going to gain any traction if it makes early adopters obscenely wealthy just by default. Consequently, the only way anyone will ever make money from Bitcoin is via speculation. The people pushing Bitcoin are appealing to the same mentality (and lack of logic) you see with believers in gold currency. Given the long history of scams involving precious metals, there is clearly no lack of potential victims willing to throw away their money.

      I assume the early Bitcoin adopters are cashing in before the entire house of cards collapses. If that was Satoshi Nakamoto's intent from the start, then my hat is off to him for committing what is essentially the perfect crime.

    13. Re:Speculation by alexander_686 · · Score: 1

      So? BitCoin is really good at making change. So what? We can cut pieces of gold down to really small bits.

      The problem with a fixed currency and a growing GDP is deflation. As the value of BitCoin rise this will benefit people who hold BitCoins (i.e. the wealth) and hurt borrowers and those who want to borrow (i.e. young people want to borrow money to go to college or start business.)

      Inflation is bad. Deflation is worse. See the 1930’s as a example.

    14. Re:Speculation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Bitcoins and gold have little in common in terms of quality but a lot in common in terms of quantity. For the latter there a inherently limited supplies of both and both are "backed by nobody." On the other hand the difference in terms of quality is that gold has historical value: it has been valuable (as a store of value and a medium of exchange) ever since mankind started doing commerce, it will never be "worthless." Or to put it another way, there will never be a time in the future were we have invented away or otherwise obviated having gold as valued highly by the market. Bitcoin on the other hand...

      If this is hard to conceptualize consider a practical example (stolen from Marc Faber from Bloomberg): You give your girlfriend copper rings and I'll give my girlfriends gold rings; I'll keep mine longer. Gold isn't some be all end all economic panacea, its a long time store of value and medium of exchange, that is exactly what history tells us. On the other hand would you care to point out how the various gold scams aren't "gold scams" as such but are pump and dump or stock scams?

    15. Re:Speculation by rhendershot · · Score: 1

      Whether Nakamoto is a person or a group is really irrelevant. A game was created and if cashing out is within the defined rules and expectations of the players, then there's no crime.

      As to your assertion that widespread adoption necessarily creates unbounded riches for the founders, or even the early adopter, I don't see that as a supportable premise. It's a matter of scale. I can think of several titans of information industry who have benefited disproportionately by virtue of their early positioning. Bing! As well as subterfuge concerning creation or adaptation or simply buying on the cheap their purported innovation. Bing! "Huge portion of the world's wealth.." ??? Seriously? How so?

      As to what a government will or won't allow - that's kind of the intention of bitcoin such that arbitrary currency manipulation from sovereign is difficult if not impossible. I hold US currency and by definition I am a speculator. I make the implicit assumption that it will tomorrow have nearly the same value as it does today. Any other action than NOT continuing to hold it is self-destructive if I perceive any negative deviation beyond that 'nearly the same value' approximation. There is no currency, including precious metals like gold, which are guaranteed. Thus, use of any of it is a speculative endeavor.

      I think you underestimate the driver for a cryptographic trading platform and currency. Every disruptive event in the world's history has made fortune for a few and has built on the backs of those less well positioned. The fact that an adjustment occurs enhances the adaptability of bitcoin even while it might be a large divestiture. Such events have a finite limit. It is, perhaps, a sign of improving maturity in bitcoin market.

      I have no bitcoin and I am not involved in it in any way other than wondering "what if".

    16. Re:Speculation by m50d · · Score: 2, Interesting

      As to your assertion that widespread adoption necessarily creates unbounded riches for the founders, or even the early adopter, I don't see that as a supportable premise. It's a matter of scale. I can think of several titans of information industry who have benefited disproportionately by virtue of their early positioning.

      "Satoshi" (I read he may actually be a guy called Mike, but anyway) owns not just half of the bitcoins there currently are, but half of all the bitcoins that can ever be created (less the ones he's already sold, I guess). No-one else has that disproportionate an advantage; Google might have more than half today's search market, but they don't have anything that guarantees they'll always have it. (Myspace had over half the social networking-fu at one point, but facebook was able to outgrow them).

      --
      I am trolling
    17. Re:Speculation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yup. And the US didn't land on the moon, the two towers were taken out by the army, etc., etc.

      People are so fucking stupid.

    18. Re:Speculation by necro81 · · Score: 1

      BTC is a pretty cruddy monetary system... Its also the best one out there at this time.

      A currency system with so much volatility - where the buying power of the currency varies by several hundred percent over a short time - hardly qualifies as "the best one out there at this time."

    19. Re:Speculation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, "No government is EVER going to allow that to happen"...

      Ever hear of the International Monetary Fund? They are about as criminal of an organization as you can get.

    20. Re:Speculation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Except for almost none of the old coins have moved. We can look at the block chain and tell this is clearly not happening.

      New people who got in for the speculation part are getting their asses handed to them, and they are getting out at a horrible loss.

    21. Re:Speculation by Ultra64 · · Score: 1

      And that has nothing to do with what the parent post was talking about.

    22. Re:Speculation by jdavidb · · Score: 2

      To correct this, I think the next generation of digital currency should reward miners with only transaction fees. Or else have a much sharper dropoff in the reward.

      It would be simple now to recompile bitcoin to give no payoff in transactions other than transaction fees, or to make the dropoff much sharper, and start a new block chain. I am betting that someone will attempt this at some point.

      The initial problem that "mining" was attempting to solve was proliferation of currency: how do you get bitcoins into people's possession so that they can use them? IMO, they went way overboard with this, and became enamored with the resemblance to "mining" and all the other "really neat" facts about this approach, losing sight of the basic problem they were intending to solve. Creation of new bitcoins could've ceased much, much sooner and the problem still would've been solved. Or the problem could've been solved in other ways.

      The initial bitcoin block could award a large amount of bitcoins to one or more issuing authorities. Or the protocol could be modified to allow any arbitrary issuing authority to issue coins in the new chain with a promise to redeem for some commodity, and the protocol could be modified to track the issuing authority along with each unit of currency so that coins can be redeemed. In such a scheme issuing authorities could compete on reliability, convenience, and other factors, and the value of a coin from one authority would not necessarily be the same as the value of a coin from another authority. This would essentially allow bitcoin to track any number of competing currencies with new ones arising at any time, and only dependable issuing authorities would be able to get much traction, if at all.

    23. Re:Speculation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If that was Satoshi Nakamoto's intent from the start, then my hat is off to him for committing what is essentially the perfect crime.

      While Nakamoto may be a crime syndicate as you speculate, how is milking a bunch of idiot geeks a crime?

    24. Re:Speculation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is false. Currency only makes up a tiny percentage of the world's wealth. Having 5% of a currency, if that currency becomes widely used (for example, on par with the UK Sterling), would give them about $5 billion worth of bitcoin, and would not make them any where close to the wealthiest people in the world. They would only be able to use that wealth once too. Once they've spent it, their ownership over that huge percentage of bitcoin holdings would be gone. This is not a unreasonable situation or reward for those who created a widely used currency that facilitates global commerce.

      Calling it a scam is about as accurate as calling any new venture of company a scam. Yes, early adopters who invested their time into something others didn't see any value in, profit, if it becomes successful.

    25. Re:Speculation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      [...] then we would effectively be turning over a huge portion of the world's wealth to a criminal enterprise. No government is EVER going to allow that to happen.

      No, of course not.

    26. Re:Speculation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Isn't gold the same? The earliest of gold diggers had the most abundant opportunity to obtain extreme wealth with high gold availability. The availiability of gold has decreased overtime and therefore is similar to bitcoin availability.

    27. Re:Speculation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      scam yes, crime no :(

    28. Re:Speculation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > No one knows who Satoshi Nakamoto is

      We know, because a journalist infiltrated a crypto conference and found out. The jap is actually duo of two people: one Micheal Clear, an alumni of Dublin's Trinity College and a former Allied Irish Bank programmer, who defected and betrayed the financial sector. The other guy is a finnish one named Vili Lehdonvirta.

    29. Re:Speculation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      we would effectively be turning over a huge portion of the world's wealth to a criminal enterprise. No government is EVER going to allow that to happen.

      No, that could definitely never happen.

    30. Re:Speculation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Gold has been used as a medium of exchange for millenia. It's fiat currencies that are scams. You can't run a printing press to create more gold. But you can do that with the USD which is exactly what the fed did in QE1 and 2. Gold is a naturally scarce resource and is the ultimate store of value.

      Bit coin is limited in number by design and, unlike physical gold, can be transported easily. But there are two problems with it:

      - Generating bit coins requires computing power and as more and more bit coins are made you need greater amounts of CPU time to generate additional coins. This is basically a total waste of resources for what is an unproductive pursuit. It actually seems like a cruel joke on humanity.

      - It does not have wide acceptability. Gold will be accepted anywhere. Most major fiat currencies are also globally acceptable. People just don't trust bit coins. What bit coins needs is a "killer application". For instance paypal, which is a payment system and not a currency, became widely used because ebay started accepting it.

      Frankly I hope bit coins never becomes popular because of point one above. All that computing time wasted to generate virtual money is just awful. If anything the world needs to go back to gold but it won't happen overnight. Probably take many decades and maybe even centuries if it ever does happen.

    31. Re:Speculation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The majority of bitcoins is in the hands of a handful who cash in large quantities from time to time thus crashing the market.

      Excellent point, and in fact Bitcoin may be one of the cleverest moneymaking scams in recent memory.

      No one knows who Satoshi Nakamoto, the purported creator of the Bitcoin protocol, really is. Assuming Bitcoin ever achieved widespread adoption, he and a handful of early adopters would become the richest people on earth by default. When I pointed this out to a Bitcoin "true believer", his response was along the lines of "Well, he's a genius and deserves it." Yes, but if in fact "Mr. Nakamoto" is simply a syndicate of very clever scammers, then we would effectively be turning over a huge portion of the world's wealth to a criminal enterprise. No government is EVER going to allow that to happen.

      No cryptographic currency is ever going to gain any traction if it makes early adopters obscenely wealthy just by default. Consequently, the only way anyone will ever make money from Bitcoin is via speculation. The people pushing Bitcoin are appealing to the same mentality (and lack of logic) you see with believers in gold currency. Given the long history of scams involving precious metals, there is clearly no lack of potential victims willing to throw away their money.

      I assume the early Bitcoin adopters are cashing in before the entire house of cards collapses. If that was Satoshi Nakamoto's intent from the start, then my hat is off to him for committing what is essentially the perfect crime.

      sorry, you are saying some stupid stuff. :) criminal enterprise? WTF?

    32. Re:Speculation by JesseMcDonald · · Score: 2

      "Satoshi" ... owns not just half of the bitcoins there currently are, but half of all the bitcoins that can ever be created....

      Please stop spreading lies. The limit on the maximum number of bitcoins is 21,000,000. There are currently 150,028 blocks in the chain, each of which awarded 50 new bitcoins to the miner which found it, meaning that there are at most 7,501,400 bitcoins in circulation, less however many have been lost permanently through data corruption, system crashes, deletion, etc.

      Satoshi obviously can't hold "half of all the bitcoins that will ever be created" when only ~36% of them have even been mined. As for the fraction of that ~36% which he holds, that's just guesswork--no one can possibly know for sure. As one of the earliest adopters and developers, he's probably lost more bitcoins than most users have seen in one place. Whatever his share is, it will decrease over time due to new mining, or even more so if he chooses to spend those reserves.

      --
      "The state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else." - Bastiat
    33. Re:Speculation by m50d · · Score: 1

      I'm only going by what I read here. But even if the absolute numbers are wrong, the point stands - he owns a substantial percentage of all the bitcoins there can ever possibly be. Since there's a fixed, and quite low, limit on the number of remaining bitcoins, fresh "mining" is never going to decrease his share below that percentage. That's a disproportionate advantage on a level we've never seen from other early adopters.

      --
      I am trolling
    34. Re:Speculation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not better with government money. When emitting the government gets 100%! Satoshi Nakamoto has less than 1% of total supply.

    35. Re:Speculation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's unavailable to people without special equipment

      What?

    36. Re:Speculation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Being that gold is widely traded and accepted as a medium of value exchange, and has been for thousands of years, I fail to see that your argument holds.

  4. Well yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Did anyone seriously not expect this to happen?

    1. Re:Well yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh just wait, the supporters aren't out of bed yet. Having dozens of mining rigs in their Mom's basements leads to a mild case of heat-stroke every night and they don't typically get out of bed until mid-day or so.

    2. Re:Well yeah by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

      They'll be surprised next time it happens too. Bitcoin crashes as often as a destructive kid's RC car.

      The only useful way to use BitCoin might be to transfer funds anonymously. Buy some bitcoins, give them to a friend with instructions to SELLSELLSELLRIGHTFUCKINGNOW!, friend cashes bitcoins quick before the value takes a dump - money transferred. But don't waste electricity mining it, leave that for the suckers.

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
  5. Winner: ATI by bengoerz · · Score: 5, Insightful

    And the winner of this whole experiment ends up being ATI, who sold a bunch of GPUs to doe-eyed bitcoin miners.

    1. Re:Winner: ATI by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hahah. I remember selling my 5830s, which I originally paid $100 each, on ebay for over $600 (i had 3 of them). Most of them sold to the same person.

      Thats the only money I made off of bitcoins....

    2. Re:Winner: ATI by suso · · Score: 1

      Honestly, I doubt it made too much of a dent in their profits. Even if there were 10,000 people out there mining all paying $800 for a 6990 video card, thats still only $8 million. AMD is a $6 billion company with annual income last year of $471 million. But most miners are buying $200 video cards.

      The real interesting thing will be seeing the flood of high end graphics cards hitting the market as the difficulty falls due to people stopping mining. Either that or there will be a new wave of GPU bound businesses.

    3. Re:Winner: ATI by Hazel+Bergeron · · Score: 4, Insightful

      During a gold rush, sell shovels.

    4. Re:Winner: ATI by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But those miners will end up reselling the GPUs at similar value if they haven't already, plus they can stick them in gaming machines. No one really lost anything unless people were stupid enough to really invest into it, and everyone gained a fun experiment, extra knowledge that will be helpful in the future, and some people made money off bitcoins and got some items out of it.

      Sounds like a good thing to me.

    5. Re:Winner: ATI by Nursie · · Score: 1

      No one really lost anything

      Somebody put the dollars in to pay the miners, to pay for their rigs and electricity. All the 'fiat' currency in and out of the system came from somewhere.

    6. Re:Winner: ATI by slashmydots · · Score: 1

      That is incorrect. The best and most popular mining cards were 5000 series and by the time GPU mining was developed, they had been discontinued. Newegg.com made more money than ATI did by stocking old 5830's. When there were basically 0 brand new ones left in all of north America, people resorted to newer 6970's but not a whole lot of them. Also, someone ran some calculations on the number of mining GPUs compared to gaming GPUs and it was something like 1:100.

    7. Re:Winner: ATI by loshwomp · · Score: 1

      And the winner of this whole experiment ends up being ATI, who sold a bunch of GPUs to doe-eyed bitcoin miners.

      Shouldn't that be dough-eyed?

    8. Re:Winner: ATI by AdamJS · · Score: 1

      "Unless they were stupid enough to really invest into it" Yeah, the fools that thought it was safe to throw real money into a volatile, unproven and probable to fail system lost money. But for most people it was a way to utilize idle GPU power and an excuse to buy parts that would later just end up in a rig or two.

    9. Re:Winner: ATI by Pentium100 · · Score: 1

      Yea, that was my reason for trying (when bitcoins were worth ~10EUR). I bought a quite good new video card (6870) that, if mining was not profitable, could be used to replace the 2900XT in my main PC for gaming. Or I will be able to build a HTPC using it. I stopped mining after a bit more than a month when the value dropped so much that it was not worth the electricity. Now I have something like 13 bitcoins and a new video card.

    10. Re:Winner: ATI by jafac · · Score: 1

      . . . and they said that bitcoin isn't backed by any "real commodity" IT IS! It is backed by silicon fashioned into GPU's!

      --

      These are my friends, See how they glisten. See this one shine, how he smiles in the light.
    11. Re:Winner: ATI by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And the winner of this whole experiment ends up being ATI, who sold a bunch of GPUs to doe-eyed bitcoin miners.

      Who is ATI?

  6. Bitcoin Crashes,,, by Oswald+McWeany · · Score: 3, Funny

    Bitcoin crashes after CmdrTaco leaves Slashdot.

    I don't think that is just a coincidence.

    --
    "That's the way to do it" - Punch
    1. Re:Bitcoin Crashes,,, by mwvdlee · · Score: 2

      Bitcoin crashes after CmdrTaco leaves Slashdot.

      I don't think that is just a coincidence.

      Not a complete coincidence perhaps, but at the very least a bitcoincidence!

      I'll be here all week!...Try the veal!

      --
      Slashdot social media options: AIM, ICQ, Yahoo, Jabber and Mobile Text. Why no MySpace?
    2. Re:Bitcoin Crashes,,, by shentino · · Score: 1

      Yeah, it's kinda like the stock market tanking after 9/11.

    3. Re:Bitcoin Crashes,,, by Chewbacon · · Score: 2

      No, just a coin incident.

      --
      Chewbacon
      The Bible is like Wikipedia: written by a bunch of people and verifiable by questionable sources.
    4. Re:Bitcoin Crashes,,, by uigrad_2000 · · Score: 1

      I can't tell whether or not you are joking. I'm not sure about Malda specifically, but I think it's clear that slashdot has turned the bitcoin market into what it is today.

      All the slashdot articles made me seriously consider bitcoins, and convinced me to invest. The glut of articles convinced me to wait for a year or so, though, because you never want to buy at the same time the crowd is buying.

      Seeing the powerdive, I'm glad I've waited. So, should I be buying now? Or wait another few months?

      --
      Free unix account: freeshell.org
    5. Re:Bitcoin Crashes,,, by Darinbob · · Score: 1

      Wait a few years just to be safe.

      For me, all the slew of slashdot articles just proves that it's overhyped lunacy just like other things slashdot likes to dwell upon.

    6. Re:Bitcoin Crashes,,, by rbpOne · · Score: 0

      Just you wait for the next online currency, Commando Slasdoin.

    7. Re:Bitcoin Crashes,,, by SpelledBackwards · · Score: 1

      Amazing. I demand to see the word "bitcoincidence" used any time Bitcoin is now referenced.

  7. it's only off 45% from its medial value. by goombah99 · · Score: 1

    How big a fall is depends on where you measure it.
    It is volatile. THere's a difference between something that is volatile and something the either crashes or always goes up.

    I'm pretty sure there are serious problems with bit coins model that lacks a central bank or reserve system (though as some have pointed out it' not impossible a country could adopt it as a currency and provide a reserve system. That would make no sense for a major country, but for a banana republic that did not trust it's own leadership not to print money that would be a sound idea. Or they can just use Dollars like everyone else).

    But I'd be surprised if those fundamental flaws are showing up this early. Thus I suspect this is more of a public interest fluctuation or the speculators cashing in.

    --
    Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
    1. Re:it's only off 45% from its medial value. by vlm · · Score: 1

      I'm pretty sure there are serious problems with bit coins model that lacks a central bank or reserve system

      How would you implement a centralized control system on top of a system specifically designed to be decentralized?

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    2. Re:it's only off 45% from its medial value. by somersault · · Score: 1

      it' not impossible a country could adopt it as a currency and provide a reserve system. That would make no sense for a major country, but for a banana republic that did not trust it's own leadership not to print money that would be a sound idea.

      Anyone can "print" bitcoins if they build a powerful enough computer. I don't think a country would adopt bitcoin, because then anyone with a powerful enough supercomputer could game their economy.

      --
      which is totally what she said
    3. Re:it's only off 45% from its medial value. by Kaenneth · · Score: 1

      I would not be surprised if Sealand made it so.

    4. Re:it's only off 45% from its medial value. by brusk · · Score: 1

      Just like the gold standard, whereby any country that finds gold deposits can also create currency.

      --
      .sig withheld by request
    5. Re:it's only off 45% from its medial value. by 1s44c · · Score: 1

      Anyone can "print" bitcoins if they build a powerful enough computer. I don't think a country would adopt bitcoin, because then anyone with a powerful enough supercomputer could game their economy.

      Anyone would not have the spare cash to build such a computer but even if they did the system adjusts difficulty to ensure it only generates 50 coins per 10 minutes. With a big enough computer the best you could do long term is get all 50 coins every 10 minutes. There is no way such a supercomputer could pay for itself.

    6. Re:it's only off 45% from its medial value. by somersault · · Score: 1

      Yeah but that's not a guaranteed thing, whereas if you set a couple of the top 10 supercomputers mining bitcoins, you're going to get results.

      --
      which is totally what she said
    7. Re:it's only off 45% from its medial value. by JasterBobaMereel · · Score: 1

      The current amount of gold in the world is fairly stable, and it's price tends to drift rather than change rapidly ...that's why it was used as a backing

      Most currencies today are fiat currencies- not gold based, but based on the fact that the government will always and only use it for transactions (taxes, payments), so it has a fairly stable intrinsic worth

      Both are a guarantee that the value will not change rapidly, BitCoin does not have this so rapid changes in value will happen

       

      --
      Puteulanus fenestra mortis
    8. Re:it's only off 45% from its medial value. by somersault · · Score: 1

      It doesn't need to pay for itself, it just needs to destabilise your enemy's economy.

      I don't think the war in Iraq and Afghanistan have paid for themselves either..

      If you do your mining via a botnet (definitely within any government's capability if they wanted) then your resources are almost free too. Especially if instead of taking down botnets, the FBI just took control for example.

      In any case, it's a stupid idea for any country to adopt bitcoin as its currency.

      --
      which is totally what she said
    9. Re:it's only off 45% from its medial value. by iluvcapra · · Score: 1

      Submit a patch. Of course, a particular criticism I have with Bitcoin is that there's no public forum for submitting and considering patches, or any official procedure for implementation, or even a list of committers with their real names, affiliations and holdings.

      --
      Don't blame me, I voted for Baltar.
    10. Re:it's only off 45% from its medial value. by makomk · · Score: 1

      I think, at the peak mining speed of Bitcoin, it would've only cost a couple of million dollars to build hardware equal to the entire existing mining capacity. That's a lot for most people, but peanuts for others.

  8. Crash? More like correction. by Cainam · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It seems more like a correction to me. The idea that a BTC was worth $20 or more seemed too good to be true, probably because it was.

    I think BitCoin is a great concept, but it needs more of a real economy and less currency speculation. I suspect that will come once the hype dies down. Maybe now that the value has gone down, that'll happen soon.

    1. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Sorry, but Bitcoin is only good for speculators.

      A real currency needs to be widely used, and largely stable. High volatility is going to chase away anyone who intends to use them for actual currency.

    2. Re:Crash? More like correction. by slim · · Score: 1

      It occurs to me that if services existed that allowed us to trade faster, the current volatility wouldn't matter as much.

      That is, a poster here complains that it took him 2 days to trade some BC for dollars, during which time they halved in dollar value. If he had been able to make the trade near-instantaneously, he would have suffered little, if any of that fall. So what's stopping that from happening?

      Then it occurs to me, that if trading was faster, the bubbles and crashes would happen more quickly. I'm not enough of an economist to know what could damp these effects.

    3. Re:Crash? More like correction. by betterunixthanunix · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I think BitCoin is a great concept

      Except that decentralized digital cash is inherently flawed, since the tokens will always grow linearly in the number of transactions they are used for. In other digital cash systems, this problem is solved by having an issuing authority (bank, government, etc.) that accepts old tokens and issues fresh tokens. In the case of Bitcoin, no such authority exists, so the tokens are just going to keep getting bigger, and eventually they will be too large to be useful.

      Not that the technical problems are going to be what kills Bitcoin. In terms of economics, Bitcoin has a shaky basis to begin with: people only accept Bitcoin because they believe that they can exchange their Bitcoin tokens for some other currency. Eventually people need to make that exchange, in order to pay their taxes, but there is no similar need to obtain Bitcoin tokens. The gap in demand is not really filled by Bitcoin's utility as a digital cash system, which is questionable to begin with because of the technical limitations on Bitcoin.

      Even if somehow that did not become a problem, there is the fact that Bitcoin is an inherently deflationary currency. This creates problems with hoarding (which we are already seeing), and makes it harder to repay loans (loans are crucial to a functioning economy, despite what those "occupy" protesters tell you).

      In short, the odds are against Bitcoin being successful. Really, more traditional cryptocurrency is needed, where a bank issues tokens but the tokens can still be transferred anonymously. Sadly, Bitcoin's failure will make it even harder to start a digital cash bank, since everyone will associate digital cash with Bitcoin and think that all digital cash systems suffer the same problems.

      --
      Palm trees and 8
    4. Re:Crash? More like correction. by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      Then it occurs to me, that if trading was faster, the bubbles and crashes would happen more quickly. I'm not enough of an economist to know what could damp these effects.

      A tax on trading?

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    5. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Surt · · Score: 1

      The exchanges are currently operating free of charge? How do they pay for electricity?

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    6. Re:Crash? More like correction. by jpapon · · Score: 1

      Really, more traditional cryptocurrency is needed, where a bank issues tokens but the tokens can still be transferred anonymously. Sadly, Bitcoin's failure will make it even harder to start a digital cash bank, since everyone will associate digital cash with Bitcoin and think that all digital cash systems suffer the same problems.

      The real issue is that a "more traditional cryptocurrency" would need to be issued by a bank, which means some reputable institution would need to guarantee the value of the cryptocurrency. It seems unlikely that any reputable institution will ever do this, since the law enforcement agencies of the world are strongly against allowing anonymous transfers. Any company/bank that started advertising that they allow "truly anonymous transfers" would have more law enforcement on them then white on rice.

      No company can survive for very long once it becomes widely believed that they are serving as the clearinghouse/money laundering service for the criminals of the world. Banks would simply stop allowing people to wire their money to the company backing the cryptocurrency, and it would wither and die.

      --
      -- Let us endeavor so to live that when we pass even the undertaker shall be sorry. -- M. Twain
    7. Re:Crash? More like correction. by julesh · · Score: 1

      Speculation has less effect on a larger market. The only thing that can make bitcoin less volatile is an increase in the number of people using it for the purpose it was designed for, rather than as a make-money-fast scheme. Unfortunately, I don't suspect stories like this help.

    8. Re:Crash? More like correction. by vlm · · Score: 1

      It occurs to me that if services existed that allowed us to trade faster, the current volatility wouldn't matter as much.

      That is, a poster here complains that it took him 2 days to trade some BC for dollars

      Original poster needs to provide more details. I'm not aware of any BTC market at this time that takes two days to clear an at market trade. Maybe Mtgox months ago when they got hacked and shut down for a week? But recently?

      There might be more to the story, like the OP put in a limit order to sell at a price that was just above market, and didn't notice for two days that it never executed because he entered too high of a limit. That's hardly the fault of the currency nor is it unique to the BTC market.

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    9. Re:Crash? More like correction. by betterunixthanunix · · Score: 1

      The real issue is that a "more traditional cryptocurrency" would need to be issued by a bank, which means some reputable institution would need to guarantee the value of the cryptocurrency. It seems unlikely that any reputable institution will ever do this, since the law enforcement agencies of the world are strongly against allowing anonymous transfers. Any company/bank that started advertising that they allow "truly anonymous transfers" would have more law enforcement on them then white on rice.

      Alternatively, LEAs might take the same approach to cryptocurrency that they take with physical cash and require banks to report large digital cash transactions. I would not bet the rent on this scenario, though -- your scenario of a LEA pressure preventing bank issued digital cash from becoming a reality is more likely. In the end, as with just about all things related to LEAs and crypto, it is the law-abiding citizens who wind up losing.

      --
      Palm trees and 8
    10. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Except that transactions don't have to be in whole bitcoins. You can transfer whatever percentage of bitcoins that you would like. 1%? .1%? These are all valid bitcoin transactions.

    11. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > since the tokens will always grow linearly in the number of transactions they are used for

      I don't understand what you want to say. I think you don't know bitcoin well enough. there are no tokens, bitcoin's primary "object" are the transactions. one bitcoin is highly divisible, not just 2 digits, and the generation of new coins is a self-regulating system.
      especially, i don't see any linear relationship with anything vs. the number of transactions.

    12. Re:Crash? More like correction. by vlm · · Score: 1

      Eventually people need to make that exchange, in order to pay their taxes, but there is no similar need to obtain Bitcoin tokens.

      Hmm that would mean the physical paper cash in my wallet is worthless, because I can only pay my taxes by personal check, so no one will ever use cash. I donno about that. Well, technically, I can pay sales and gasoline taxes at point of sale using cash, but everything else requires a check, property, fed/state income, most licenses, etc. Lets agree I can only pay about 5% of my taxes using cash and the other 95% require personal checks.

      The technical limit assumes the tokens grow in size faster than computing power increases in speed and capacity. To a Really crude first approximation our planetary wide economy only exists because computers already handle all transactions and record keeping, and it does not appear that computational power is in any way limiting our current planetary economy, so using computers to handle a tiny fraction of the worlds economy, that being digital cash, should scale even better.

      Put another way, I fully agree that someday, thousand core terahertz processors will be required to follow the BTC stream, but by then, Microchip Inc will be selling thousand core terahertz PIC processors for twenty five cents each that only draw one milliamp at full speed, and still the only microcontroller posts that make it to /. will be Arduwwwweeeeeeno based projects that do the same thing the PICs did decades ago but cost 10 times as much and are slower and harder to use. But I digress...

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    13. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Yvanhoe · · Score: 1

      And people who ever had to exchange money internationally. You won't believe the prehistoric state in which it is unless you really try it.

      --
      The Wise adapts himself to the world. The Fool adapts the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the Fool.
    14. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I know computers, that makes me a financial genius!

    15. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Tridus · · Score: 1

      You can with a high amount of reliability turn the cash in your wallet into a value used for personal cheques at a 1:1 ratio, and back again. It's just two different means of transferring the same currency.

      --
      -- "So they told me that using the download page to download something was not something they anticipated." - Bill Gates
    16. Re:Crash? More like correction. by betterunixthanunix · · Score: 1

      Hmm that would mean the physical paper cash in my wallet is worthless, because I can only pay my taxes by personal check, so no one will ever use cash. I donno about that. Well, technically, I can pay sales and gasoline taxes at point of sale using cash, but everything else requires a check, property, fed/state income, most licenses, etc. Lets agree I can only pay about 5% of my taxes using cash and the other 95% require personal checks.

      Except that a check is an instruction to transfer some amount of dollars to the recipient (the government, in the case of taxes). You have not switched currencies, $1 on a check is redeemable for a $1 bill or four quarters, etc. In the case of Bitcoin, you need to switch currencies -- selling your Bitcoin tokens for dollars, which are then used to pay taxes. Since nobody needs to sell their dollars for Bitcoin tokens in order to pay taxes, there is an imbalance in the demand for Bitcoins. It is not something that will kill Bitcoin on its own, but it is a problem with the currency.

      The technical limit assumes the tokens grow in size faster than computing power increases in speed and capacity.

      This will always be the case. There are physical limits on computational power, and if your currency is going to keep requiring more computational power even when the economy is not growing then eventually you are going to have a problem. This is assuming that Bitcoin can even be successful without running on less powerful devices -- smartcards, vending machines, gas pumps, etc.

      To a Really crude first approximation our planetary wide economy only exists because computers already handle all transactions and record keeping

      ...and the only time we need to increase that computational power is when the economy grows. If the same number of transactions were processed every day, the only thing that would be increased is the size of the archive of previous transactions. A currency like Bitcoin adds a new cost: each day, the amount of computational power needs to increase, because the amount of data processed in every single transaction will increase as a result of the previous day's transactions (or the previous nanosecond's, since every transaction increases the size of the tokens used in the transaction).

      I do agree, though, that Bitcoin will not be killed by its technical limitations. We are nowhere near hitting the wall in terms of token sizes and computational power. Bitcoin will die because it makes no economic sense: a deflation oriented currency without any legal structure to give it value. Cryptoanarchists are entitled to their wet dreams, but Bitcoin is going to fail and the last people to buy into the system are going to be the ones who go home crying.

      --
      Palm trees and 8
    17. Re:Crash? More like correction. by repapetilto · · Score: 1

      You can exchange near instantaneously. His only problem was he left his money in a volatile currency that's value vs USD has been trending downward for 4 months. If the value of his money went up over the weekend he wouldn't be complaining. But yes, volatility is not a desirable quality in a currency.

    18. Re:Crash? More like correction. by John+Hasler · · Score: 1

      Hmm that would mean the physical paper cash in my wallet is worthless, because I can only pay my taxes by personal check, so no one will ever use cash.

      "Legal tender for all debts public and private". You can pay your taxes in cash, but it might be quite a struggle to get it accepted in practice.

      --
      Warning: this article may contain humor, sarcasm, parody, and perhaps even irony. Read at your own risk.
    19. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Zibbo · · Score: 3, Informative

      I think BitCoin is a great concept

      Except that decentralized digital cash is inherently flawed, since the tokens will always grow linearly in the number of transactions they are used for. In other digital cash systems, this problem is solved by having an issuing authority (bank, government, etc.) that accepts old tokens and issues fresh tokens. In the case of Bitcoin, no such authority exists, so the tokens are just going to keep getting bigger, and eventually they will be too large to be useful.

      What? I think you may have misunderstood some aspects of Bitcoin. You can easily divide and combine bitcoins in any way you want. You can combine one thousand 0.001 bitcoins to a single bitcoin, or do the same in reverse and divide. The smallest possible unit is 0.00000001 BTC.

      Bitcoin is not perfect, but this is NOT one of it's problems.

    20. Re:Crash? More like correction. by mapkinase · · Score: 1

      "but it needs more of a real economy and less currency speculation"

      That is called government regulation.

      --
      I do not believe in karma. "Funny"=-6. Do good and forbid evil. Yours, Oft-Offtopic Flamebaiting Troll.
    21. Re:Crash? More like correction. by betterunixthanunix · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Except that any secure digital cash system must have the property that I mentioned -- the tokens must grow with the number of transactions:

      ftp://www.hacktic.nl/pub/mirrors/Advances%20in%20Cryptology/HTML/PDF/E92/390.PDF

      --
      Palm trees and 8
    22. Re:Crash? More like correction. by BetterSense · · Score: 1

      The only reasons LEAs put up with cash now, is that it is already adopted and has a legacy acceptance. If somebody tried to invent cash now, it would never happen, due to the anonymity and universality which are the qualities that make cash attractive.

    23. Re:Crash? More like correction. by inviolet · · Score: 1

      No company can survive for very long once it becomes widely believed that they are serving as the clearinghouse/money laundering service for the criminals of the world. Banks would simply stop allowing people to wire their money to the company backing the cryptocurrency, and it would wither and die.

      Other than the Vatican Bank of course. It is literally the "white collar" anonymous transfer service.

      --
      FATMOUSE + YOU = FATMOUSE
    24. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Eil · · Score: 1

      In the case of Bitcoin, no such authority exists, so the tokens are just going to keep getting bigger, and eventually they will be too large to be useful.

      Maybe I don't quite grok your definition of "tokens," but bitcoins in the current implementation are divisible down to six decimal places (IIRC), so even in the unlikely case where the vast majority are "lost" or hoarded by a small number of people, anyone can still trade in milibitcoins, nanobitcoins, etc. And they can increase the maximum (er, minimum?) number of decimal places at any time, it's just a software tweak.

      In short, the odds are against Bitcoin being successful. Really, more traditional cryptocurrency is needed, where a bank issues tokens but the tokens can still be transferred anonymously. Sadly, Bitcoin's failure will make it even harder to start a digital cash bank, since everyone will associate digital cash with Bitcoin and think that all digital cash systems suffer the same problems.

      The entire point of Bitcoin is that it is decentralized and can't be controlled by a central entity. Any cryptocurrency with perfect anonymity is a great way to evade taxes and law enforcement since auditing is a million times harder. As such, every country on the planet would attempt to outlaw or control any alternative currency with a central controlling authority. And central authorities are pretty easy to take down, just look at the charred remains of all the previous companies that have tried digital currency in the past.

    25. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nah.

      Bitcoin is the best value-transfer agent available. Like Skype for money.

      http://bitcoin-trader.blogspot.com/2011/10/bitcoin-is-next-skype.html

      It isn't money, and it isn't a commodity. It's a bank-breaker waiting for a simple App.

    26. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Pinkybum · · Score: 1

      Even if somehow that did not become a problem, there is the fact that Bitcoin is an inherently deflationary currency. This creates problems with hoarding (which we are already seeing), and makes it harder to repay loans (loans are crucial to a functioning economy, despite what those "occupy" protesters tell you).

      I don't think I have ever seen or heard an "occupy" protester say that loans are inherently bad and I went to one for a couple of hours in Saturday. The main thrust of the "movement" is: 1. Tax the rich more - to make income and wealth distribution a little more equitable 2. Re-install Glass-Steagal and regulate the financial industry properly 3. Eliminate corporate personhood and institute campaign finance reform to make our democracy more healthy

    27. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Zibbo · · Score: 1

      Except that any secure digital cash system must have the property that I mentioned -- the tokens must grow with the number of transactions:

      ftp://www.hacktic.nl/pub/mirrors/Advances%20in%20Cryptology/HTML/PDF/E92/390.PDF

      I'm not sure if "token" is a valid concept in bitcoin. There are just practically unlimited number of "accounts" which each hold a variable amount of bitcoins. Also, there is a central authority of sorts for bitcoin, which is the public blockchain that stores all the transactions in bitcoin network, and makes it possible to know the value of every account. That transaction record is managed in a peer to peer fashion.

      So tokens don't grow since there are no tokens to begin with.

    28. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're wrong. The 'tokens' (blocks actually) can be pruned and only the essential information saved. It might take some time, but it can happen.

      What Bitcoin does is prove that it is possible to provide a de-centralized digital currency.

      Also, fuck the government. If I'm only being paid in Bitcoin, I don't pay taxes on that. I can tell the government that I've not got an income.

    29. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What are the other technical limitations?
      BitCoins are divisible to eight decimal places: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Myths#21_million_coins_isn.27t_enough.3B_doesn.27t_scale

    30. Re:Crash? More like correction. by blueg3 · · Score: 1

      The "token" in this case is the fraction of the public blockchain needed to validate a proposed bitcoin exchange.

    31. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ... people only accept Bitcoin because they believe that they can exchange their Bitcoin tokens for some other currency.

      Isn't that the way with anything?

      Every 2 weeks I receive an e-mail with a PDF saying I've been paid.

      I can go to the bank, and withdraw pieces of paper with funny picture on them, and use them to buy food & gas. The ONLY reason I can do this, is because I believe these magic pieces of paper have value, and somebody else believes these magic pieces of paper have the same value that I do.

      But most of the time, I do not go to the bank, or handle actual money. I simply swipe a card, and the store gets a message that they have been paid money. We are essentially already in a virtual currency, we currently call it dollars and pounds and euros and yen.

      The biggest problem(s) with bitcoin is:

      - Completely non-reversible. People sometimes make mistakes. (I also realize that this is one of it's strongest points as well)
      - too clumsy.
      - Connectivity & technology are required. Huge parts of the world do not have the connectivity required to perform a transaction.
      - Nobody thinks in bitcoins. Every transaction that does occur is calculated in the local or US currency, and then converted to bitcons for the actual payment.
      - it looks like a giant Ponzi scheme.
      - Every inbred incompetent hilbilly has set up either an e-wallet or exchange that was compromised making it nearly impossible to be confident in any transaction that doesn't occur in person.

      disclaimer: I did mine some bitcoins back when it was feasable to do CPU mining. I turned a bunch of them into US$ back when they were above $18 / coin. I still have a tad over 100 bitcoins left.

      p.s. Captcha: Retail

    32. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Seriously everyone is jumping all over this crash like its going to kill Bitcoin, honestly that's kind of ridiculous. Its not very different from everyone who said the climb was going to $100,000 per Bitcoin a few months ago. The market was horribly saturated with speculators. Its a NEW market, very young, and it has only around 200,000 users. You add a huge group of speculators flooding the market and it becomes wildly volatile.

      The argument that this makes it an unstable currency or that it "has no value" because of this simply isn't true. This is a brand new market made of people who either are holding Bitcoin for its long-term benefits or were trying to buy for short-term profits. (market for transaction its incredibly small and probably wont grow anymore until Bitcoin finds equilibrium) I think its going to continue going down in the short-run but not to zero. That requires an assumption that it has no value at all. Its finding its equilibrium price which is simply very low. Again there are way more people playing WOW than there are using Bitcoin. And a huge portion of them are getting scared and leaving... because their only goal getting in was to make a ton of money.

      Think about it, people started talking about Bitcoin, tons of people got wildly excited (because many can obviously see it has value), and then they think they can buy a lot of them and just wait for a little while and sell it for twice the amount. The problem is they forgot something... the price of Bitcoin is SOLELY determined by supply and demand. Its as if you took an experimental software and made its price fluctuate like a commodity. Speculators do not amount to any kind of sustained demand. Speculators fall under "Huge Temporary Demand." We wont know what the equilibrium price is until the market finds it. The one thing I DO know is that a lot of people are not worried about its price because they are thinking only in long-term value and usability. When Bitcoin is less than $1 I'm going to start buying the crap out of them. But I'm not buying any at $30, $5, or even $2.50 because I simply don't think the market can sustain a price that high, expecially while so many are exiting the market still. Its probably going to have to go pretty low before the only people left in the market are the ones who determine their investments based on the value of the commodity or idea rather than just trying to buy to make a short-term profit.

    33. Re:Crash? More like correction. by rsborg · · Score: 1

      loans are crucial to a functioning economy, despite what those "occupy" protesters tell you

      Nice strawman argument. The "occupy" protesters are not against loans, loans have existed for millennia. What they are against, is speculative bets disguised as loans (ie, "securitzed" debt or MBS) which are then bet against by the very banks offering the loans (i.e., default swap or CDS). Both of these recent financial instruments have been called by even conservative folks like Warren Buffet as financial WMDs.

      --
      Make sure everyone's vote counts: Verified Voting
    34. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      um, yeah this isn't a flaw. Decentralization is its most important benefit. Its price is determined exactly the same way you determine the price of gold and/or silver. The only thing is, that right now its as if we just discovered gold and people know its valuable, but are trying to figure out all the ways to use it. "too large to be useful." simply not possible but its understandable to think that especially if you know little about economics.

      "people only accept Bitcoin because they believe that they can exchange their Bitcoin tokens for some other currency." Not really true either, obviously 'acceptability' is an important part of any currency, but its one of 7 major requirements. The thing is, its the only one that fluctuates. Paypal also doesn't have any value if no one uses it because they have to be able to pay you your money back, same with banks. If people stopped using your bank you would get nothing back because they are all leveraged 10:1 or sometimes even 20:1.

      "inherently deflationary currency. This creates problems with hoarding" I understand that a ton of people have this viewpoint, but again this is based on a total fallacy of economics. I want to make this EXTREMELY clear, a deflationary spiral is only possible during a hyperinflationary currency crisis and its only because people hoard physical goods, not money! (therefore its the result of centralized currency manipulation) First, people have to consume in order to survive. But deflation is actually good for the poor and the economy overall, it gives incentive to save more, borrow less, and it creates a huge competition in falling prices. Businesses can't sell their stuff at "normal" prices because people are more inclined to save for the future. The businesses then have to take to loss in order to get a currency that is gaining value. So then they begin selling at 50% off to encourage people to spend because they predict an increase in the currency price.

      So many of these fallacies actually stem from bad economics. I'm not trying to be insulting or tell you that I'm right and you're wrong either. I hope it doesn't come off that way. But these are very general concerns that actually dont apply to real markets. Markets determine prices through billions of voluntary transactions, if people think its value will be higher and begin saving more than spending, then this price is simply calculated into the market through falling consumer prices and higher interest rates. This encourages people to return to equilibrium prices by getting higher interest rates when loaning that money out to others. there is nothing in a true market that is beneficial that produces no real value. These things are only possible in a highly regulated or manipulated market controlled by government or a central bank (same thing really). Interest rates determine the price of obtaining capital. They rise when people want to save and fall when people have already gained a huge amount of savings,,, this is unless you have a Federal Reserve that does the exact opposite, then creates a huge market bubble facilitated by free debt and cheap borrowing in an economy with no savings whatsoever, and then follows a giant crash, huge depression, and quite possibly the death of the American dollar... which is the next event we have to live through unless a whole bunch of shit is done very fast. I honestly dont see any of it even coming close to being done so I'm buying bitcoin (even at a loss if I have to) as one of my many hedges against hyperinflation of the American dollar.

      Remember why you believe the common knowledge of economics. Never forget that most people believe deflation is bad because our government says it all the time... the government that has caused 20% inflation in the last 3 years in the food and commodities market, that same government tells us about deflationary spirals but teaches nothing about hyperinflation that has happened hundreds of times while there isn't a SINGLE example of a deflationary spiral naturally occuring

    35. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Digital currency's track record is way longer than bitcoin. Bitcoin is a highlight in the history of digital currency with the majority falling victim to secret service raids or ponzi scheme temptations. If digital currency is known by bitcoin that would be a step in the right direction.

    36. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think BitCoin is a great concept

      Except that decentralized digital cash is inherently flawed, since the tokens will always grow linearly in the number of transactions they are used for. In other digital cash systems, this problem is solved by having an issuing authority (bank, government, etc.) that accepts old tokens and issues fresh tokens. In the case of Bitcoin, no such authority exists, so the tokens are just going to keep getting bigger, and eventually they will be too large to be useful.
       

      You don't understand how bitcoin works. There are no tokens. Bitcoins don't "grow" in any sense. The system is entirely different than any similar attempt to create a digital currency, which is why it's revolutionary. It can be argued that bitcoin is a successful application of triple entry accounting (where the blockchain is the trusted third party, as opposed to any particular trusted institution) as applied to a LETS (local exchange trading system) that uses the entire Interent (and largely only the Internet) as it's local exchange region.

    37. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      |>Eventually people need to make that exchange

      I think what you mean or assume is that law abiding citizens choosing to report earned income over bitcoin must eventually issue a tax payment in native currency.

      They don't NEED to do this.

      And that should tell you a lot about the value for bitcoin and why demand is present in it right there. The actual, real world value. The value that good beyond fiat currency have. Especially when purchased with intermediate goods. Like it or hate it, the black market is a market and an economy.

      The other point you miss, and this should bug you with your name and what I would hope would be an understanding of unix paradigms, programming paradigms...

      Is that a full currency needs to be useful for loans. A standin currency to replace a currency needs to do loans. A standin currency operating side by side... well... I don't have a name for this--but it need not be a full currency. In particular, it need not be useful for loans. It need not protect against deflation.

      It need only be useful as a standardized item to exchange.

      Finally--the technical limitations aren't half as bad as you think they are.

    38. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Raenex · · Score: 1

      The main thrust of the "movement" is: 1. Tax the rich more - to make income and wealth distribution a little more equitable 2. Re-install Glass-Steagal and regulate the financial industry properly 3. Eliminate corporate personhood and institute campaign finance reform to make our democracy more healthy

      That's the most coherent message I've seen out of Occupy Wall Street, though I suspect those are mostly your ideas or somebody else's, and not a consensus.

    39. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Raenex · · Score: 1

      Also, fuck the government. If I'm only being paid in Bitcoin, I don't pay taxes on that. I can tell the government that I've not got an income.

      Not legally. If you were "only" paid in gold, or "only" paid in stocks, or anything else of value, you still need to pay taxes on the dollar value of what you were paid in.

    40. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Darinbob · · Score: 1

      The big difference between what banks do with money and what bitcoin does is the difference between investment and speculation. Yes people are yammering about how modern banks are just speculating. But the traditional bank invests instead. The difference may be subtle and people may not see it. Speculation is like gambling, you are playing the odds. Investment is buying into a venture such as a business or mortgage. The traditional bank loans out money and gets it back with interest which is not speculation. Of course if you invest in a business part you also have some speculation as the base price of your shares may increase in value separately from the dividends. A speculator tends churns their bets dumping stuff quickly and buying new stuff as the odds change, and investor holds onto the assets and encourages them to grow. Investors grow an economy whereas speculators just leech off of it.

    41. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Pentium100 · · Score: 1

      The problem is that with very volatile value, bitcoin is useless as value storage.

      If I sell something for bitcoins I have to immediately trade the bitcons for EUR (or the value might drop). So, I might as well just sell the item for EUR.

    42. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Pentium100 · · Score: 1

      Hmm that would mean the physical paper cash in my wallet is worthless, because I can only pay my taxes by personal check, so no one will ever use cash.

      Interesting. Where I live, I can pay any taxes using cash (well, except the tax that my employer takes from my salary to pay (social security and income) since I never see that money). But for anything else, the money has to end up in a specified bank account. I can wire transfer the money to it, or go to a bank and pay cash.

      I have never seen a check from up close.

    43. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Pinkybum · · Score: 1

      No - as I said I went to one of the largest demonstrations in the country and surveying the signs that people were holding up most (about 95 percent) related to the above 3 main areas. There were some other odd posters from a libertarian or anti-war perspective but these were definitely in the minority.

    44. Re:Crash? More like correction. by NotAGoodNickname · · Score: 1

      He is talking about the bitcoin chain gets bigger every time there is a transaction that uses the bitcoin. This is addressed in the Bitcoin FAQ though.

    45. Re:Crash? More like correction. by jdavidb · · Score: 1

      Except that decentralized digital cash is inherently flawed, since the tokens will always grow linearly in the number of transactions they are used for. In other digital cash systems, this problem is solved by having an issuing authority (bank, government, etc.) that accepts old tokens and issues fresh tokens. In the case of Bitcoin, no such authority exists, so the tokens are just going to keep getting bigger, and eventually they will be too large to be useful.

      I don't think that's actually how it works. When a bitcoin is referred to in a transaction, I believe all that is specified is the ID of the source transaction, and the amount to use. I could be wrong.

    46. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Except that decentralized digital cash is inherently flawed, since the tokens will always grow linearly in the number of transactions they are used for. In other digital cash systems, this problem is solved by having an issuing authority (bank, government, etc.) that accepts old tokens and issues fresh tokens. In the case of Bitcoin, no such authority exists, so the tokens are just going to keep getting bigger, and eventually they will be too large to be useful.

      This is why bitcoins were designed so that they can be subdivided into units of about 10^-8 bitcoins each. If we were ever to reach the point where 10^-8 bitcoins is too large to be useful, I guess you'd start to see banks issuing other, smaller currencies backed by bitcoins ... but really, that problem is way, way in the future.

      Your other points are mostly valid, particularly the one about it being a deflationary currency.

    47. Re:Crash? More like correction. by fcrick · · Score: 1

      Except that decentralized digital cash is inherently flawed, since the tokens will always grow linearly in the number of transactions they are used for. In other digital cash systems, this problem is solved by having an issuing authority (bank, government, etc.) that accepts old tokens and issues fresh tokens. In the case of Bitcoin, no such authority exists, so the tokens are just going to keep getting bigger, and eventually they will be too large to be useful.

      This is total bullshit, presumably based on a lack of understanding of how bitcoins work. The phrase "accepts old tokens and issues fresh tokens" is completely meaningless in the context of bitcoins, which has a universal log of all transactions maintained by miners, not any actual tokens at all.

      --
      Your signatures belong to me.
    48. Re:Crash? More like correction. by WOOFYGOOFY · · Score: 1
      "(loans are crucial to a functioning economy, despite what those "occupy" protesters tell you)"

      What the occupy protesters are telling you is not that loans are evil, but that UNBANKRUPTABLE LOANS are evil, and in that they'd be correct.

      No corporation or enterprise is going to accept a loan from an loaning entity in which the possibility of bankruptcy protection has been removed (and not just because such terms would be illegal). Why? Because if the company can't meet it's obligations, it HAS to have the option of re-org- where only a part of the debt is repaid or chapter 7, where the company is relieved of the debt entirely and goes out of business, leaving the company's officers and board members free from financial obligation. Once the company is "dead" a theoretically unbankruptable debt can only have the meaning that any and all future enterprises of officers and board members would get attached until all debts are repaid in full.

      No one is going to take the risk of starting a business with those terms. There wouldn't BE business, period and Republicans would be screaming bloody murder about an " unfriendly regulatory environment" making it impossible to do business in the US.

      Yet when someone takes out a student loan, that loan IS unbankruptable. This turns getting an education- a precursor widely accepted as necessary fro economic participation- which is a nice way of saying eating and maintaining a roof over your head- in the economy into a high risk gamble in which the cost of losing is the lifetime indentured servitude to rich lenders by poor students.

      Unbankruptable debt is not a concept that exists anywhere in the world outside of 18th century England and its debtor's prisons. The reason is clear. Everyone who is stuck trying to repay unbankruptable debt falls permanently out of the economy and stays poor. This is bad for the individual and bad for the larger economy.

      The personal and financial cost of having a bankruptcy appear on your credit rating is punishment enough to deter people from gratuitously dumping their debts. There was never a rash of student loan defaults by people really able to repay just as there were never any WMD in Iraq; it was a fiction with no data to support it. It was an excuse to make the loans unbankruptable and thus suitable to act as a kind of "super" security which the holders could then sell to investors, making themselves super rich in the process.

      Banks and their employees with sophisticated knowledge of the legislative process and the cash to influence legislators can achieve whatever ends they want irrespective of the long term consequences to the country. They act as a unit under the direction of a small set of individuals- the officers and boards- who will be made so rich they are beyond care or want if they are just able to succeed at distorting the law to suit them and their goals.

      THAT is what the occupy movement is protesting.

      http://www.amazon.com/Student-Loan-Scam-Oppressive-History/dp/0807042293

    49. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      'tokens' don't grow bigger and bigger. You obviously do not have any idea how bitcoin works.

    50. Re:Crash? More like correction. by randyleepublic · · Score: 1

      >> loans are crucial to a functioning economy

      This appears to be true, but that is only because we have an economy based upon credit backed money, and have had so from the beginning of the US. Read C. H. Douglas. He figured out the answer to this and many other questions a long time ago.

      --
      Social Credit would solve everything...
    51. Re:Crash? More like correction. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Except that decentralized digital cash is inherently flawed, since the tokens will always grow linearly in the number of transactions they are used for. In other digital cash systems, this problem is solved by having an issuing authority (bank, government, etc.) that accepts old tokens and issues fresh tokens. In the case of Bitcoin, no such authority exists, so the tokens are just going to keep getting bigger, and eventually they will be too large to be useful.

      Not that the technical problems are going to be what kills Bitcoin. In terms of economics, Bitcoin has a shaky basis to begin with: people only accept Bitcoin because they believe that they can exchange their Bitcoin tokens for some other currency. Eventually people need to make that exchange, in order to pay their taxes, but there is no similar need to obtain Bitcoin tokens. The gap in demand is not really filled by Bitcoin's utility as a digital cash system, which is questionable to begin with because of the technical limitations on Bitcoin.

      Even if somehow that did not become a problem, there is the fact that Bitcoin is an inherently deflationary currency. This creates problems with hoarding (which we are already seeing), and makes it harder to repay loans (loans are crucial to a functioning economy, despite what those "occupy" protesters tell you).

      In short, the odds are against Bitcoin being successful. Really, more traditional cryptocurrency is needed, where a bank issues tokens but the tokens can still be transferred anonymously. Sadly, Bitcoin's failure will make it even harder to start a digital cash bank, since everyone will associate digital cash with Bitcoin and think that all digital cash systems suffer the same problems.

      You are obviously just an advocate for global banks and control over others. Everything you have stated is incorrect or just flat out lies.

      "Except that decentralized digital cash is inherently flawed" --> incorrect (lie) since decentralization in a currency stops the THEFT of inflation by "issuing authority (bank, government, etc.)" which literally steal your money by printing more 'tokens' and devaluing the currency to oblivion.

      "Eventually people need to make that exchange, in order to pay their taxes, but there is no similar need to obtain Bitcoin tokens" --> wrong again (lie) .. since direct taxation is a flat out, high treasonous, crime to begin with. If you can purchase/trade bitcoin for a product/service then there is no need to pay any gang members (bank, government, etc) 'protection money' just so they can kidnap you and throw you into a small, dark whole.

      "Bitcoin is an inherently deflationary currency. This creates problems with hoarding (which we are already seeing)" --> not really ... any how, is this not happening with every INFLATIONARY currency. People are told all the time to 'SAVE' their money, so that the 'issuing authority' can print more of it ... devaluing it, so that it's just fire starter. Deflationary currencies are the ONLY currencies to retain or increase in value. Please tell me how your propaganda states that is a bad thing.

      "Really, more traditional cryptocurrency is needed, where a bank issues tokens but the tokens can still be transferred anonymously" --> like CASH .. that is GONE ... worthless .... devalued to oblivion.

      Why are global bank, propaganda spreaders allowed on these forums.

  9. Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by Layzej · · Score: 4, Funny

    I'm moving all of my cash to tulip bulbs. They're due for a comeback ;)

    1. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by Oswald+McWeany · · Score: 2

      Daffodils are a better investment.

      Unless you take the time to dig up your tulip bulbs each year- the number of tulips each consecutive year goes down.

      Daffodils on the other hand increase the size of their investment- you plant 10 this year- you'll have 15 next year.

      Muscari bulbs would be better yet. You plant one this year- you'll have 12 trillion of them next year... they're like the tribbles of the bulb-world.

      --
      "That's the way to do it" - Punch
    2. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by s_p_oneil · · Score: 1

      I think you have it backwards. The more rare things are, the more they're worth. So if you take the time to dig up your bulbs each year, and some other slob doesn't, your tulips will end up being worth more. Your muscari bulbs, on the other hand, won't be worth squat once the market is flooded with 12 trillion of them.

    3. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by drfishy · · Score: 2
    4. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by operagost · · Score: 1

      So you're saying that productivity creates wealth? Try to explain that to the Occupiers.

      --

      Gamingmuseum.com: Give your 3D accelerator a rest.
    5. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Empiric evidence says no, given that productivity goes up year over year, and yet wealth hasn't.

    6. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by Oswald+McWeany · · Score: 1

      Well apart from the established price for tulips and daffodils are actually quite similar; however the labour to produce extra tulips is greater than that of daffodils.

      Therefore, assuming you count the cost of your time- there is a greater profit margain out of daffodils.

      Profit = Income - Costs

      If income is approximately the same for both- then the product with the lower costs gives you the greater profit.

      Therefore- the "root" to wealth lieth not with tulips.

      --
      "That's the way to do it" - Punch
    7. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by watermark · · Score: 1

      I hear investing in boomerang production is a good buy...I hear they comeback

    8. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by Myopic · · Score: 1

      Hmmm. I think it is you who missed the joke.

    9. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What joke? Please explain, I'm dutch so my English is too poor to get it.

    10. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by inviolet · · Score: 1

      Daffodils are a better investment.

      Unless you take the time to dig up your tulip bulbs each year- the number of tulips each consecutive year goes down.

      Daffodils on the other hand increase the size of their investment- you plant 10 this year- you'll have 15 next year.

      Muscari bulbs would be better yet. You plant one this year- you'll have 12 trillion of them next year... they're like the tribbles of the bulb-world.

      Actually I've seen hard data showing that the optimal cash-crop flower is the poppy. :)

      --
      FATMOUSE + YOU = FATMOUSE
    11. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by Myopic · · Score: 1

      So, the first guy (Layzej) made a joke about tulip bulbs having value, which is a reference a Dutchman is sure to understand. The second guy (Oswald) made a joke, I think, by taking the original joke as a literal comment, and then joking about other similarly stupid currencies. I suppose it's possible that Oswald was being serious, but it would be so ridiculous that I think it's much more likely he was extending the original joke. He dropped in a Star Trek reference at the end for bonus nerd points. An extra layer to Oswald's joke is that a currency which grows from one to 12 trillion in a year, is a very bad currency indeed.

    12. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by rwv · · Score: 1

      At one point in history about 50% the Dutch economy was spent purchasing outrageously priced $4000 tulip bulbs. This was on account of idiots blindly following a trend that didn't provide any tangible benefits except two weeks of exquisite beauty in early spring.

    13. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by Oswald+McWeany · · Score: 1

      To clarify my comment... and confession.

      The original joke went over my head. I recognised it as a joke- but whereas I have heard of the tulip bubble, I wasn't thinking of it at the time and didn't make the connection.

      My reply was joking around- but it was not an extension of the original joke- any resemblence is pure lucky coincidence! ;)

      --
      "That's the way to do it" - Punch
    14. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by s_p_oneil · · Score: 1

      Are you comparing retail price? That's an entirely different ball game, as you have to account for the fact that retail stores do their best to rip off uninformed consumers. If I'm running a chain of plant nurseries, I doubt I'd pay the same amount for daffodils and tulips. However, if I can get away with it, I'll charge the same price (the higher price, of course) when selling them, and most likely advertise the heck out of the over-priced daffodils to increase my profit margin. However, that doesn't equate to the person growing the tulips having a lower profit margin than the person growing the daffodils.

    15. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by drfishy · · Score: 1

      Well it serves me right to get called out for "wooshing" something so obscure anyway. ;) I'm mostly Dutch, live in Holland, MI - that's an unfair advantage...

    16. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by the+biologist · · Score: 1

      Unless you take the time to dig up your tulip bulbs each year- the number of tulips each consecutive year goes down.

      This is a partial fiction.

      Freshly planted tulips bloom so well the first year because they were fertilized heavily and not allowed to bloom the year before. The second year blooms will look small and pathetic in comparison. This is a designed business strategy that encourages re-purchasing tulips each year.

      The second aspect is that the Dutch growers have been breeding for tulips which require being dug up and separated for multi-year growth. More wild tulips naturally spread their bulbs through the soil, but breeders have been selecting those tulips which don't spread through the soil... because they're easier to find and process for shipping each year when they dig them up. This seems to be accidental, as most people (even plants-men) don't account for evolution in their business strategies.

      What allows this pattern to happen is that Tulip bulbs are always new from the last years growth. The bulb you plant one year is consumed by the plant in making the bulbs for next year.

      Daffodil bulbs persist year to year, with new side growths producing new bulbs.

    17. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      think you missed the joke here:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

    18. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      CmdrTaco could tell plenty about this growing up in Holland, MI

    19. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Daffodils are a better investment.

      I now officially declare this joke dead

    20. Re:Time to invest in tulip bulbs... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The grand parent is refering to this woosh.

      That company sounded frieghteningly like every company on Wall Street today. Corruption, price speculation, insider trading, you name it. Tulip bulbs were currency.

      By 1720 a single bulb cost a whole family's salary for one year. People who started in 1711 when the company was formed made a fortune! Speculating started in the 1650's but the South Seas Company was almost identical to Goldline today except they traded in bulbs rather than gold. The investors and customers got shafted when it crashed and politicians and the king got free stocks so they lost money too (or perceived too when they counted their value of their shares as real wealth). Today every company on Wall Street does the same old hoopla with corruption, but the South Seas bubble was the first of its kind and emulated by future generations of bankers and traders.

  10. Send your worthless Bitcoins to... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Dispose of your Bitcoins by sending them to 1jWDbcp7b2vAG1fvfCQ2rN2b5hjJpXruR

    I will dispose of them in an environmentally-friendly manner.

    1. Re:Send your worthless Bitcoins to... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Check ur bitcoins.

  11. Re:The truth is immanent! Brrekwj0iyf98hin yuppaZZ by mwvdlee · · Score: 0

    I agree.

    --
    Slashdot social media options: AIM, ICQ, Yahoo, Jabber and Mobile Text. Why no MySpace?
  12. Valuable lesson in currency... by RyuuzakiTetsuya · · Score: 4, Insightful

    All currencies are fiat. No matter what they're backed by. Currencies have to exist inside of a strong ecosystem that encourages their trading rather than hoarding.

    --
    Non impediti ratione cogitationus.
    1. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by sveinungkv · · Score: 1

      Gold is not fiat since gold have other uses than money. A currency consisting of gold coins where the value is the gold content would not be fiat. The same can be said for other commodities. (Not all commodities are created equal. I would not recommend an apple currency. They tend to rot and lose value. If you try to divide an apple it will rot even faster. The supply of apples can easily be inflated by farming them. It would still technically be hard money)

      --
      Spelling/grammar nazis welcome (English is not my first language and I am trying to improve my spelling/grammar)
    2. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by betterunixthanunix · · Score: 1, Informative

      I think someone needs to look up the definition of "fiat." Bitcoin is not a fiat currency since there is no government or law involved.

      --
      Palm trees and 8
    3. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by ThomasFlip · · Score: 1

      Thats exactly correct. For a good description of the properties of money, check out the following link:

      http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10370.html

      --
      If the dollar is an "I owe you nothing", then the Euro is a "Who owes you nothing." - Doug Casey
    4. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by laron · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Gold was already valuable before it was actually useful. If a large fraction of the value of gold was based on it's technical uses, the gold price should be more stable IMHO. The gold price is more based on a circular logic: It's valuable because everyone thinks so.

      --
      "Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master."
    5. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by websoongi · · Score: 2

      Hear, hear. If anyone doubts the real value of gold compared with paper money, consider this: One thousand years from now you find a vault filled with ancient American, paper money. The value of that paper is worthless. It may have worth as an historical artifact. But now consider this: One month later a colleague discovers two vaults filled with ancient American money. The value of your money has now gone down. Having more paper money in this world decreases its value because the paper itself is not wealth. Compare this with gold: (and you can imagine it now, because it works at any time) You find a vault filled with gold. You're rich. Your colleague finds a vault with gold. He's rich. You're both rich because finding more gold just means that there's more (actual) wealth in the world. You're rich if you find such a vault now. You're rich if you find it one thousand years from now. That's because gold has intrinsic worth. It shouldn't, I believe, because I personally don't care about gold. But that doesn't change the fact that others always will. Even if gold didn't have uses other than money, people have, and always will, covet it. If you had a trunk full, you'd line your walls with it. If you had more, you'd have a solid gold swimming pool out back. There's never enough gold.

    6. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by ThomasFlip · · Score: 1

      If a large fraction of the value of gold was based on it's technical uses, the gold price should be more stable IMHO.

      My understanding is that the opposite is actually true. Silver for example has a lot more industrial uses than gold but the market is much more volatile. Admittedly part of the reason is that the silver market is much smaller than the gold market, but another major part has to do with the business cycle.

      For example, if there is a huge economic downturn, silver will get hit harder since industrial demand will drop as the economy contracts (i.e. less people buying audio wires). Since there is little industrial gold demand, the price will actually be more stable.

      --
      If the dollar is an "I owe you nothing", then the Euro is a "Who owes you nothing." - Doug Casey
    7. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Double bind.

      Either what you say is true, in which case current "fiat" currency isn't fiat at all because it's pegged to the "real" service of providing liquidity (which is a real service -- you didn't buy your house with cash); or,

      what you say isn't true, and the primary difference between "fiat" and "non-fiat" currencies is that non-fiat currencies have their value pegged to something far less volatile. The problem with a non-fiat currency is that you peg your available money at one (or a set of a few) resources, which effectively ties your economy down to a set rate of growth. In other words, you need some volatility, and in an economy are large as ours, a few precious metals won't cut it. So what else could we use for a hard currency?

      think about how you phrased "not all commodities are created equal." I would argue that gold and silver are some of the only viable backings for currency. All other commodities have use value other than looking pretty and small, niche manufacturing roles.

      Anyways, based on the volatility of futures markets, I think -- even if you want a stable currency -- you're better off with fiat currencies anyway (unless you live in a country where your government thinks pegging is a good idea.)

    8. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by jeffc128ca · · Score: 1

      The amount of gold that exists does change and fluctuate based on how much of it we pull out of the earth. This is the problem with gold or other commodity backed currencies and why it's lead to volatile inflation/deflation cycles. You are connecting the supply of money to the rate miners can dig the mineral out of the earth. Printing money under a proper monetary system can be controlled to keep inflation in check, so long as the central bank's mandate is to keep inflation in check. So pick your poison, a central banking system that requires oversight to avoid the temptation of inflating you way out of problems, or highly volatile inflation /deflation cycles based on the rate miners can dig stuff from the ground.

    9. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by geekoid · · Score: 0

      And that someone would be you.
      Read this:
      http://books.google.com/books?id=oRgQ2goeFzwC&pg=PA659&q=fiat+money+&hl=en#v=snippet&q=fiat%20money&f=false

      Fiat can mean money without intrinsic value.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    10. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by w_dragon · · Score: 1

      Fiat is a latin work literally translating to something along the line of 'Let there be'. It generally refers to the creation of something from nothing. Paper money is made from cotton and plastics. Bitcoins are made from GPU cycles. Both derive value based on the belief that they have value, they are useless without that belief. Thus they could both reasonably be called fiat money.

    11. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by vlm · · Score: 1

      A barrel of oil makes a decent currency. In prison, I'm told the economic system is oriented around cigarettes. West of the rockies I'm told water would make a decent currency (east of the rockies, especially around the great lakes, water is laughably abundant, to the point of cultural problems)

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    12. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by SpeZek · · Score: 2

      You're assuming gold is worth more than other matter in the future. But it could easily be replicated. Gold-pressed latinum, on the other hand...

    13. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by trout007 · · Score: 1

      You are wrong. Finding more gold does cause price inflation when gold is used as currency. There have been many cases throughout history when this has happened including when Spain returned gold they captured in the Americas to Europe and also during the Californian gold rush. The reason is simple. When there is more gold in relation to other products the price of those products rises in terms of gold.

      The reason precious metals in particular make good money is the following characteristics.

      There is inherent worth. (The ladies love it and there are industrial uses)
      The worth is intrinsic to the material and not form (Smash a coin and if it still has the same mass of metal is is worth the same unlike a diamond)
      Easily identified and recognized
      Hard to counterfeit (including governments)
      Compact Store of Value
      Easy to divide without losing value (unlike gemstones where 1 ct stone is worth much more than two 1/2 ct stones)
      Doesn't degrade over time
      Increase in supply requires effort (You have to at least go out find it in nature and mine it)

      --
      I love Jesus, except for his foreign policy.
    14. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      The value we assign gold is far higher than it's actual useful value. Just like, but to less extent and for different reasons, diamonds.

    15. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think someone needs to read past the first paragraph of Wikipedia articles. Citation used later:

      ^ N. Gregory Mankiw (2008-09-29). Principles of Economics. pp. 659. ISBN 9780324589979. "Fiat money, such as paper dollars, is money without intrinsic value: It would be worthless if it were not used as money."

    16. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by brusk · · Score: 1

      Water would make an awful currency because it's way to expensive to transport (imagine going to the coffee shop with a gallon jug to pay for a cup of coffee). Not everything that is valuable would be an efficient form of money. And how would you pay a water bill to your utility company? With water?

      --
      .sig withheld by request
    17. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by Captain+Hook · · Score: 1

      So gold is immune to supply and demand?

      Gold's percieved value comes from it's past use as a metal used for coins and jewellery. It was used because it doesn't react strongly in air, was found in small quantities, was soft enough to mint easily and importantly, was almost worthless for any other use.

      i.e. gold's value is based on exact the same basis as paper money, it's worth something because everyone thinks it's worth something.

      If you doubled the amount of gold sitting in the global economic system, it's value per unit would half, in exactly the same way paper money would. Thats because the value of both is as a currency not as a material.

      --
      These comments are my personal opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the other voices in my head.
    18. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by Kjella · · Score: 1

      Currencies have to exist inside of a strong ecosystem that encourages their trading rather than hoarding.

      Hyperinflation encourages trading a lot, spend right now before it's worthless. Currencies actually for the most part target an equivalence between having cash or goods. To do that the currency have to expand with the economy, no more (causing hyperinflation) and no less (causing deflation). Okay so there's a little bit of oil in the machinery there to make you trade, but the net loss if you put the money in government bonds and gain interest is small.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    19. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by Myopic · · Score: 1

      That's a bad example because it is the exact opposite of the truth. I'll put it plainly: imagine I discover a huge mountain range which is absolutely chock full of tons and tons of easily mined gold. Say it's enough to quadruple the amount of gold in the world. There is now a vastly increased quantity of gold in the world. Yeah, I'm rich because I have a lot of gold now, but everyone who had gold yesterday is a heck of a lot poorer, because their gold buys less today than yesterday, because suddenly I'm willing to trade my gold for less of that stuff, because I have so much gold. And if my friend discovers TWO mountain ranges of gold tomorrow, then suddenly I'm less rich.

      The reason this doesn't happen is that there is good geological reason to believe that there aren't huge swaths of easily gotten gold hidden in the ground. Similarly, there aren't huge swaths of easily gotten bitcoin hidden in the... uh... numbers. Similarly for dollars, although the "reason" for the limitation is political instead of geological.

      But scarcity isn't the only cornerstone of currency stability or value.

    20. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's also very valuable for jewelry and decoration, as it fits three criteria that make it ideal:

      - It looks good. Really good. The optical characteristics of gold are almost unique. It has a shine like few other materials.

      - It's durable and non-tarnishable, which is very convenient.

      - It's rare, which allows it to function as a status symbol. Wearing gold is a way to show off one's personal wealth, as only the wealthiest can afford it.

    21. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by Myopic · · Score: 1

      I'm not familiar with that book, but I think the understanding of most people is that fiat currency means what Wiki says it means: "Fiat money is money that has value only because of government regulation or law." Shit, even the word "fiat" means "A formal authorization or proposition; a decree."

      Fiat money has value because someone with power and legitimacy says it has value. You can have your own definition if you want, but please excuse the rest of us for ignoring it and using the common definition.

    22. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by thelexx · · Score: 3, Informative

      "The gold price is more based on a circular logic: It's valuable because everyone thinks so."

      Incorrect. It's called intrinsic value and gold has it. It's hard to dig up and there's not much of it. It never deteriorates (silver does) and is easy to work/subdivide (platinum isn't). It is also highly portable and easily storable (vs oil, wheat, etc). Aristotle laid it out pretty well when he wrote that something used as money should have the following properties: Durable, Portable, Divisible, Intrinsic Value

      Those are the reasons gold has retained it's status for thousands of years, and continues to do so today. See my sig for confirmation even from one of our modern economic 'masterminds'. I would suggest that somewhere around nothing has changed concerning the status of gold since he said that. The fact that it looks nice and can be worn is just a bonus that influences the weak minded.

      --
      "Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world." - Alan Greenspan, 1999
    23. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by inviolet · · Score: 2

      My understanding is that the opposite is actually true. Silver for example has a lot more industrial uses than gold but the market is much more volatile. Admittedly part of the reason is that the silver market is much smaller than the gold market, but another major part has to do with the business cycle.

      Your data about the silver market has been corrupted by JPMorgan and HSBC, acting in league with the Federal Reserve. Backstory here and many other places. Only recently, after their activities were exposed, is the silver market calming down and returning to the historical 15:1 price parity (arising from the metals' 15:1 geologic ratio) with gold.

      --
      FATMOUSE + YOU = FATMOUSE
    24. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by laron · · Score: 1

      I think "intrinsic value" and "because everyone thinks so" are more or less the same thing. If the value of gold was inherent to the material, independent of people's opinion, the gold price shouldn't fluctuate as much as it does. Of course you could also say, that the value of everything else fluctuates against gold...

      --
      "Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master."
    25. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by Patch86 · · Score: 1

      None of those things are indicative of intrinsic value. Something is not valuable only because it is rare- my teeth are very rare (only 52 ever made!), but no-one would ever buy one off me for anything like a good price. Nor is being portable or storable all that's required (otherwise Lego bricks would be a fantastic currency), or divisibility. I don't necessarily buy it's use as jewellery as a good reason either, seeing as that's basically dependent on it remaining in fashion (which admittedly it always has, but there's nothing intrinsic about that as a quality- it's entirely externally dependent, and could theoretically be replaced at any time by some other shiny substance).

      You could say (and people do) that gold has intrinsic value due to it's industrial uses (which are all because of it's actual intrinsic physical properties). But a quick visit to Wikipedia tells me that industrial consumption accounts for only 10% of gold consumption worldwide (the rest being either jewellery or financial/investment use), so if you strip out its other uses its value would collapse.

    26. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by laron · · Score: 1

      Fiat money has value because someone with power and legitimacy says it has value. You can have your own definition if you want, but please excuse the rest of us for ignoring it and using the common definition.

      It's not enough that a government says that the money has value, people actually have to believe it. In 1923, the German government could have announced that the value of the Mark hasn't changed at all for 20 years, but in fact the value dropped close to the paper the money was printed on.

      --
      "Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master."
    27. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by blueg3 · · Score: 1

      Only if you misuse the definition of "fiat". You're describing money without intrinsic value. Fiat currency is currency that has value as a result of law.

    28. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by Myopic · · Score: 1

      I agree: people have to believe it. That's what I meant with the word "legitimacy", and even to a lesser extent "power".

    29. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      BitCoin is just leading the way, showing us what could happen to the dollar and the euro if the right choices aren't made soon.

    30. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by RyuuzakiTetsuya · · Score: 1

      What's the intrinsic trading rate between gold and wheat?

      What's the intrinsic value in gold for a new Honda Civic?

      etc. etc. etc.

      Why it makes a decent(but not perfect) basis for trade is intrinsic. However, given that we pull out of thin air what it trades for, we can then say yes, trading with gold is trading with a fiat currency.

      --
      Non impediti ratione cogitationus.
    31. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by thelexx · · Score: 1

      You reasoning is mostly right, but your conclusion is wrong.

      Teeth = not reasonably sub-divisible, fragile
      Lego = easily mass producible
      Shiny/Wearable = irrelevant

      You are correct in that not having at least all of the properties I mentioned before (and there are others that are useful as well) will disqualify a specific substance.

      Also you are correct that if you get rid of 90% of the demand, presumably by convincing people there is a better way to store value that cannot easily be taken/devalued by social and political winds, the gold market would collapse.

      Good luck with that.

      --
      "Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world." - Alan Greenspan, 1999
    32. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sigh...

      It's hard to dig up and there's not much of it.

      Paper money is hard to print (special paper, all sorts of security features only the government has access to). There's exactly as much of it as the government wants there to be, which means it's scarcity is controlled (that's a feature, not a bug...although I agree you can abuse this feature, it takes a whole lot of abusing to make, the dollar for example, completely worthless).

      It never deteriorates (silver does)

      Neither does paper money, as the paper is continuously taken out of circulation and replaced as it moves through the system.

      is easy to work/subdivide (platinum isn't).

      If we had a need to, we could make 2 cent coins. Or we could just do what gas stations do and use 1/10 cents as a unit and round to the nearest cent.

      It is also highly portable and easily storable (vs oil, wheat, etc).

      Paper money beats everything here.

      Fiat currencies don't have intrinsic value, but unless you can make a good argument for the market value of gold not far outweighing its intrinsic value, that's really irrelevant.

    33. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by purpledinoz · · Score: 1
      Alan Greenspan is no economic mastermind. He's either stupid or evil. The proof is in this quote, in regards to the downgrade of US debt:

      "The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default".

      Think about it, this is the exact reason why US debt SHOULD be downgraded. The US will print money to pay off their debts, causing the value of their bonds to go down. With this logic, Zimbabwe bonds should be AAA.

    34. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by elbonia · · Score: 1
      Silver can't deteriorate it's a stable element. It can tarnish, like gold, but that means nothing in backing into a currency. As for dividing platinum that is insignificant because you peg the currency to an amount which is stored. Everyone trades the currency and not the actual item.

      As for Alan Greenspan's quotes his most important one was admitting his entire thinking of the global economy was flawed.

      Henry Waxman (D-CA) then pressed him to clarify his words. "In other words, you found that your view of the world, your ideology, was not right, it was not working," Waxman said.

      "Absolutely, precisely," Greenspan replied.

      http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=alan%20greenspan%20admits%20he%20was%20wrong&source=web&cd=4&sqi=2&ved=0CDYQtwIwAw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DYwpnH_OTZio&ei=1BOfTqOGA6rUiAKPhel_&usg=AFQjCNF3ngWow8AS-GkUVlUCJAeV-Kry5w&sig2=cP7TOBAjhYY_Z1IE2yn-Zg

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Greenspan#Criticism

    35. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by Hillgiant · · Score: 1

      Furthermore...

      Gold is an industrial metal. I.e. it has value beyond its "intrinsic" value (whatever the hell that means). I, for one, don't want the value of my currency to be impacted by the success of widget manufacture. Similarly, as a widget manufacturer, I don't want the price of my goods to be affected by currency speculators. The chromium and nickle markets are irritating enough as it is. (Chromium and nickle are primary components of stainless steel. The price of SS is directly related to its proportional content of these metals)

      --
      -
    36. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by rjstanford · · Score: 1

      Water would make an awful currency because it's way to expensive to transport (imagine going to the coffee shop with a gallon jug to pay for a cup of coffee). Not everything that is valuable would be an efficient form of money. And how would you pay a water bill to your utility company? With water?

      And yet bitcoins are available in trade for electricity, which has many of the same problems...

      --
      You're special forces then? That's great! I just love your olympics!
    37. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You find a vault filled with gold. You're rich. Your colleague finds a vault with gold. He's rich. You're both rich because finding more gold just means that there's more (actual) wealth in the world.

      I believe that the experience of Spain (and, by extension, the rest of Europe) in the 16th-17th centuries argues against this. If you and your colleague both find gold, you get inflation, not rich.

    38. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by Tacvek · · Score: 1

      Gold's price is based in significant part on its intrinsic value, while paper currency's intrinsic value is too small to be a significant part, but that is the sole difference

      The current price of gold exceeds the intrinsic value of gold. If fewer people were investing in gold, and sitting on it, (which ties up our supply) then gold would cost less per ounce. Guess what? That is exactly what people complain about with fiat currencies. The paper money is printed on also has intrinsic value (a small fraction of a cent, but still more than zero), but the face value (price) for a one dollar bill greatly exceeds the intrinsic value of the paper.
      .

      The simple fact is that this occurs with any possible currency. If tomorrow we went with oil as a currency, the price per barrel would increase (well it might first decrease due to lower barriers of trade, but it would eventually increase) despite no increase in the intrinsic value of oil. This happens for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is hoarding, effectively which makes the resource in question scarcer, which in turn increases the price.

      Of course, oil is very unpalatable as a currency, as nobody likes to literally burn their money, but the point still stands.

      --
      Stylish sheet to fix many problems in Slashdot's D3: https://gist.github.com/801524
    39. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

      intrinsic value

      That's precisely what GP meant when he wrote "it's valuable because everyone thinks so". There was nothing intrinsically valuable about gold for thousands of years when it was used as a primary currency - it had no technical application, and there are many other materials for use in jewelry.

    40. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      > Durable, Portable, Divisible, Intrinsic Value

      Actually, gold is weak on several of those.

      Its "intrinsic value" is almost entirely decorative. You can't really do much else with it, as a metal, because it's too malleable and too heavy. It's useful for electroplating on the occasional other metal, but that requires very little actual gold compared to how much is already mined and refined. Simple non-decay isn't an "intrinsic value" by itself - we can make plenty of things that also won't decay in a human lifespan. Rarity is also not an "intrinsic value" by itself, since there are plenty of things that are rare but worthless. Intrinsic value must be measured by utility. Unfortunately, gold falls down on this. Sorry, but the additional arguments gold advocates try to build on top are basically circular logic.

      Durability: it doesn't corrode, but it's so malleable that it actually rubs off easily. Its durability really only shines (no pun intended) when it's stuck in big bricks in a vault and never moved. It's terrible for anything that actually gets moved or handled, like actual circulating coins. (google "sweating gold coins" for example). In other words, even though it doesn't chemically decay, on a human scale it structurally decays. We want this stuff in coins and ingots, not as gold dust in our pockets/purses/wallets or on the storeroom floor, blowing away. To a lesser extent, it doesn't work well in coin form either - malleability again, the coins bend easily. Gold fails on durability.

      Portability: as mentioned above, it's quite dense and it rubs off. The ideally portable money would be lightweight at an easy size to handle.

      Divisibility: due to the other issues, not a good idea. If you make it small enough to be light, it's small enough to lose. Plus the greater ratio of surface area to volume makes small pieces less durable than large pieces, since they're wear down to gold dust faster. Then again, divisibility is overrated for modern currency; rather than use one infinitely divisible material, in practice, we just exchange a smaller number of tokens of set values, which is a lot easier in all respects (buyer, seller, and government) than breaking your coins into pieces. (Think about it: someone has to constantly remake the larger coins again, or else you'll quickly run out of them). Of course the modern pace of monetary exchange is much higher, so this is magnified.

      The current ultimate in Durable Portable Divisible Intrinsic currency is probably.... a plastic debit card. In all the ways that matter for currency, it's extremely durable and portable. Because it's merely a token for value stored as a large pool elsewhere, it's also as divisible as we want to make it. And because the money it represents is backed by the net value of an entire nation, it's got an extremely high intrinsic value.

      > gold has retained it's status for thousands of years, and continues to do so today
      Not really. Gold's value has been in wild flux that entire time, including periods where it was effectively zero. It's effectively zero right now, for that matter, since it is only exchangeable among the very small sliver of society that cares about gold, and only for the paper money those same people dislike. You can't buy bread with a gold coin now, nor would you be able to if we experienced high inflation, nor would you be able to if we experienced societal collapse.

    41. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by slashdot_commentator · · Score: 1

      But 200 years from now, two vaults of gold won't be worth much. We'll all be transacting in Federation credits, and that's not based material which is easily replicated.

      --
      There is no America. There is no democracy. There is only IBM and AT&T and DuPont, Dow, General Electric, and Exxon
    42. Re:Valuable lesson in currency... by slashdot_commentator · · Score: 1

      I wish I had moderator points to give you. I never understood why armchair economists cannot understand this obvious fact.

      --
      There is no America. There is no democracy. There is only IBM and AT&T and DuPont, Dow, General Electric, and Exxon
  13. Missing the point of currency by Evro · · Score: 2

    The point of currency in general isn't as a store of value, but as a way to facilitate transactions. Currencies are traded as a proxy for trading "stock" in a particular country's economy. When Japan does well and the USA does poorly, the dollar gets weaker against the yen. Bitcoin doesn't represent any country, so trading it seems even stranger. But until and unless there are merchants who accept Bitcoin for purchases, it doesn't seem like the system itself has much value, since as I said, the reason for the existence of currency is as a way to facilitate trade.

    --
    rooooar
    1. Re:Missing the point of currency by wisnoskij · · Score: 2

      And it cannot do that if from day to day it is worth large amounts different.
      Currency only works if people have faith in it and no one with any sense would have faith in a currency that has no solid value.

      --
      Troll is not a replacement for I disagree.
    2. Re:Missing the point of currency by H0p313ss · · Score: 1

      And it cannot do that if from day to day it is worth large amounts different.

      Wise this is.

      --
      XML is a known as a key material required to create SMD: Software of Mass Destruction
    3. Re:Missing the point of currency by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So why do people still trade US$ and EU? The past three years haven't shaken your faith in those two currencies?

  14. ...and nothing of value was lost by fph+il+quozientatore · · Score: 1, Insightful

    nuff said

    --
    My first program:

    Hell Segmentation fault

  15. What's that in flooz? by elrous0 · · Score: 1

    Ah man, I was really hoping to unload all my flooz and beenz bucks into this too. I've really got to stop investing in currency based on commercials.

    Anyone know if e-gold accepts flooz? Come on man, Whoopi's good for it.

    --
    SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
  16. Re:STOP WITH THE SLASHVERTISEMENTS FOR BITCOIN by TarMil · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Stop with the whining already. It's been at least a month since I saw a bitcoin article on slashdot. Btw "bitcoin crashed 90%" is hardly advertisement.

  17. It is a new ecconomic model by SystemicPlural · · Score: 1, Insightful

    It's a relatively new currency using a new model that takes free market ideas to a new extreme; there is no central authority to ease the peaks and troughs - and no long term consequences as a result. It is going to be bumpy to start with. If it is still all over the place in ten years (assuming it lasts that long) then I will consider it a failure. Meanwhile it is for speculators to have fun with. Kids these days are so impatient.

    1. Re:It is a new ecconomic model by brainzach · · Score: 1

      The economic model is the gold standard.

    2. Re:It is a new ecconomic model by maxwell+demon · · Score: 1

      Well, speculating with bitcoins may be nice, but to really have fun with it, you have to make derivatives. Don't mine them and then sell them. Sell certificates now for the bitcoins you will mine. Sell options on those certificates. Mix several certificates and make new ones out of them. Create a big bitcoin bubble, and then enjoy watching that bubble burst.

      Oh, you say that bitcoin is immune against this? You clearly lack imagination.

      --
      The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
    3. Re:It is a new ecconomic model by Surt · · Score: 1

      How so? Gold is a real thing, with substantial value independent of its use as a trading commodity.

      --
      "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?" --Stephen Hawking
    4. Re:It is a new ecconomic model by brainzach · · Score: 1

      Bitcoin has a fixed money supply that only grows by mining.

      Many of the problems with Bitcoin also occured with the gold standard. When the rate of mining does not meet the money supply, it will cause deflation and result in lower economic activity. The lower economic activity lowers the usefulness of the currency compared to the dollar.

      Gold has some advantages of having a history behind it and being valued by many people, so it still retains its value. Bitcoin has no history and only select few value it, so as its usefulness declines, it value will go down over time.

      It does not perfectly follow the Gold standard model, but economic models exists to predict why the Bitcoin experiment would fail.

  18. Probably "Occupy Wallstreet" by Greyfox · · Score: 3, Funny

    Those guys take bitcoins. Probably one of them bought a twinkie, or something.

    --

    I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?

    1. Re:Probably "Occupy Wallstreet" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, we know they didn't buy soap.

      buh-dump-bah!

    2. Re:Probably "Occupy Wallstreet" by sourcerror · · Score: 1

      Next time it will be "Occupy MtGox".

  19. Well, duh. by s_p_oneil · · Score: 1

    Well, duh. (It surprises me that I'm unable to find anyone else posting this comment.)

  20. Right... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That's still three times its value in April 2011.

    Big fucking help that is.

  21. Time to burn down some forests by Quila · · Score: 2

    Get the value back up, you know.

    1. Re:Time to burn down some forests by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Back to the soap mines, you.

  22. bitcoin is not money, its payment method by notany · · Score: 2

    Classical properties of money are: medium of exchange, unit of account and store of value.

    Very few, if any, goods in bitcoin economy are sold using bitcoins as unit of account. Paying with bitcoin may be option, but goods are priced in other currency. Bitcoin prices are periodically adjusted to match price in other currency. Bitcoin clearly is not way to store value. Most people use it to speculate. Apart from limited use in paying small amounts of drugs for personal use etc. in local settings, bitcoin is not preferred medium of exchange. Because bitcoin is not used like money, it is not money. Currently bitcoin is just way to make payments (similar to debit or credit card) and speculative hobby for some.

    Even very shaky third world currencies have some stability because people constantly need to buy them to pay taxes and fees. Only way I can see bitcoins becoming viable currency if some network communities or services would only accept bitcoins as payment. That would tie the value of bitcoin into something that has tangible value.

    --
    Dyslexics have more fnu.
    1. Re:bitcoin is not money, its payment method by Zironic · · Score: 2

      Though there is no reason for services to do that. Locking your livelihood to something that can lose 9/10ths of its value in a few months is a guaranteed way to go bankrupt.

      And in the end you have to transfer your money from coins to legal tender to pay taxes.

    2. Re:bitcoin is not money, its payment method by vlm · · Score: 1

      Bitcoin clearly is not way to store value.

      There is a book value equal to what it would cost a miner to mine it for you.

      It seems to be trading WAY above that.

      I made a couple hundred BTC by CPU mining before GPU mining even existed, before /. heard of BTC. Back then BTC traded for not a whole heck of a lot more than the electricity to mine them. I vaguely remember BTC difficulty factors that only had 2 digits? I don't remember exactly but I have the vague memory that my hundreds of BTC was worth about a nice dinner. Which is probably about right, 5 watt old 486 embedded processor running for a couple months at 10 cents per KwH...

      It seems unlikely in the long term that BTC would spend a substantial amount of time below the cost of manufacture. Much like houses don't spend much time below the cost of manufacture. It does intermittently happen but not for long.

      Another analogy is the relationship between electricity price and aluminum price for electrochemical reasons.

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    3. Re:bitcoin is not money, its payment method by tomhudson · · Score: 1

      Much like houses don't spend much time below the cost of manufacture. It does intermittently happen but not for long.

      That is SO "previous century" thinking. On a percent basis from peak, houses have already dropped more than during the Great Depression. The only reason we don't call this the Great Depression Redux is because we don't want to use the "D-word"

      Considered, by some economists, a rare and extreme form of recession, a depression is characterized by its length, by abnormally large increases in unemployment, falls in the availability of credit - often due to some kind of banking or financial crisis, shrinking outputâ"as buyers dry up and suppliers cut back on production, and investment, large number of bankruptciesâ"including sovereign debt defaults, significantly reduced amounts of trade and commerceâ"especially international, as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuationsâ"most often due to devaluations. Price deflation, financial crises and bank failures are also common elements of a depression that are not normally a part of a recession.

      For all intents and purposes, we're already about 1/3 of the way into the Great Depression 2. Housing prices are slated to fall another 20%-30%, to below where they were in 1999 (they're now, on average, around 2002-2003). Consumers, who have already "cleared out" half a trillion of household debt just via both strategic and regular default, will drop between 1 and 1.5 trillion more. "Too big to fail" will become "too big to save", and the recovery won't begin until all that bad debt is recognized and flushed through the system - something every politician dreads happening on "their watch", so they'll just kick the can down to the next term rather than throw a few of the rat b*stards responsible in jail.

    4. Re:bitcoin is not money, its payment method by cbhacking · · Score: 1

      So you're saying that everybody in the world should abandon money that is traded internationally?

      Massive value loss is not a property inherent to bitcoins, though. It can happen with real-world currencies, too. Consider the Zimbabwe Dollar, which over the course of a few weeks was devalued far worse than Bitcoin in a few months.

      Now, maybe bitcoins are more likely to experience such drops, and certainly the government of Zimbabwe is a complete fuck-up (though their currency was perfectly good when I visited 13 years ago). The point remains that you're mking a foolishly broad and inaccurate statement. I don't have the economics background to tell you why bitcoins are or are not viable currency, but I'm sufficiently aware of world events to tell you that tying wealth to "real-world" money is not necessarily safe either.

      --
      There's no place I could be, since I've found Serenity...
    5. Re:bitcoin is not money, its payment method by Zironic · · Score: 1

      Yes, and a meteorite may hit your head and kill you tomorrow. The point isn't that the mainstream currencies are safe, they are safe-er.

      All currencies have some amount of volatility, however Bitcoins are -extremely- volatile and have -no mechanism- to control stability -what so ever-

    6. Re:bitcoin is not money, its payment method by petermgreen · · Score: 1

      There is a book value equal to what it would cost a miner to mine it for you.

      Even assuming that is true (things are sometimes worth less than they cost to make if not enough people want them) the cost of making a bitcoin is not static. It depends on how hard other people are trying to make them.

      --
      note: i'm known as plugwash most places but i screwd up registering that here somehow in the past and now can't register
  23. Cashing out by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Someone or some group cashed out big time.
    And i don't feel any empathy for the suckers who went after bitcoin.
    They deserved being scammed.

  24. When does a Ponzi collapse ? by Martin+S. · · Score: 0

    Ponzi schemes require a continuous flow of new investors, when they dry up or existing investors try to cash-out faster than new money it will collapse because there are no legitimate earnings.

    1. Re:When does a Ponzi collapse ? by julesh · · Score: 1

      Ponzi schemes pretend to be investment schemes. Bitcoin doesn't.

      There, that's the end of that comparison. Now perhaps we can move on to some actual analysis?

  25. Not one person here has had the thought... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Time to buy low?

    1. Re:Not one person here has had the thought... by drobety · · Score: 1

      "Low" relative to what?

    2. Re:Not one person here has had the thought... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Relative to "high". As in, buy low sell high. Buy them now while price is crashing, sell out at the next bubble caused by newbie speculation or high demand from the next batch of money laundering. Bitcoin will only fail when we get rid of crime, so I'm not gonna hold my breath, but you could least make money from the criminals.

  26. Economic Experiment by DaMattster · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Bitcoin is kind of an interesting experiment in economics. Its founders started out with a relatively simple premise by asking the quintessential question: Why is a central clearing house or central regulation is necessary? Unfortunately, they ended up (re-)learning a valuable reason as to why our forefathers realized a need for some centralization and regulation. Our forefathers realized that monetary centralization provides currency stabilization. When the United States was young with newly won independence from Britain, each state minted its own currency and this was a debacle. How would one determine how much New Jersey dollars would one get in trade for, say, Connecticut dollars? Bitcoin's founders also re-learned the difficult concept of valuation. Last summer, Bitcoin essentially bubbled because, for a short time, its followers had a strong, collective emotional belief that bitcoins have real value. The moment this emotional belief foundation is placed into doubt or shattered, the value comes down. With the storm of server, desktop, and web application intrusions resulting in the theft of Bitcoins, the latent problems with the currency model were suddenly propelled into the main stream. Its users became frightened and distrustful. It is more than just supply and demand economics but believing that the medium that you are using for trade is intrinsically worth something (when, in actuality it has no real value.) Finally, centralization helps mitigate criminality and makes it easier for a victim to recover stolen funds.

    1. Re:Economic Experiment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      History fail. Our current system of monetary centralization goes back to 1913, not the founding of the country.

      First Bank of the United States 1791–1811
      Second Bank of the United States 1816–1836
      Federal Reserve (third bank) 1913 - present

      Know why our currency is called the dollar? The dollar was a Spanish coin commonly circulated in the colonies. The Spanish coin is what our founders would have thought of when you say dollar, not bank notes.

    2. Re:Economic Experiment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      centralization helps mitigate criminality and makes it easier for a victim to recover stolen funds.

      So you're saying if I get mugged, I can recover my money? AWESOME! Where do I go to do that?

    3. Re:Economic Experiment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One of Bitcoin's supposed "benefits" is that the transactions are irreversible. It's as if Bitcoin was DESIGNED to facilitate theft.

    4. Re:Economic Experiment by complete+loony · · Score: 1

      Their transaction model is pretty good, it solves pretty much all the technical issues that a digital currency must solve. But absolutely every other aspect of bitcoins is flawed. So much of the software around bitcoins has horrible security, including the wallet of the reference implementation. No-one is willing to back them as a currency with a fixed value, and without a fixed value they are useless for trading. They are massive bait for scammers and ponzi speculators.

      I would like to build on their technical ideas, and build an impeccably audited non-for-profit entity to back a new currency. Start with a fixed bundle of coins that will never grow in number. Verify the transaction log on a central server that is only responsible for ensuring transaction order. Allow anyone to copy the log and audit it, signing a checkpoint of the transactions that have not been spent. This would allow us to build a web of trust so that anyone can verify a transaction without needing the entire log.

      This non-for-profit would sell the initial bundle of coins for other hard currencies to anyone, and would initially establish relationships with other businesses to buy them back at a similar price, perhaps pegged to one specific currency but with a small percentage taken out to cover running costs. This would encourage the coins to be circulated, give them some fixed value they can be redeemed for, and give people a reason for buying some. The cash this entity must hold would be audited and held with very tight restrictions to ensure it is not lost on risky investments, but such that interest can also be used to cover their expenses.

      Even with this model, there is a risk that the backing entity will turn out to be a ponzi investor. That when you ask them to buy back these tokens we find that the money they are supposed to be holding doesn't exist. But since this would be the only entity issuing credit, it should be possible to audit and have some method to avoid this eventuality.

      And I'd like to federate this model and allow anyone to setup their own backing entity, perhaps for only a single purpose like issuing store credit, ownership of shares in a public company or other investment instruments.

      --
      09F91102 no, 455FE104 nope, F190A1E8 uh-uh, 7A5F8A09 that's not it, C87294CE no. Ah! 452F6E403CDF10714E41DFAA257D313F.
    5. Re:Economic Experiment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Back when everyone *minted* their own currency, you could easily determine the exchange rate with a merchant scale and an occasional test of the coin composition. "Dollar" was a fixed quantity of silver, so if a New Jersey dollar had less silver in it than a Connecticut dollar or a Spanish trade dollar, then they have less purchasing power, not only from being underweight, but because some people will simply reject them outright rather then try to figure out what they are actually worth.

      Centralization provides the currency creator the ability to debase the currency without provoking the consumers into fleeing to other currencies. And by "forefathers" you must mean Alexander Hamilton, who had trouble establishing a central bank because most of the other founders were against it.

    6. Re:Economic Experiment by jdavidb · · Score: 1

      When the United States was young with newly won independence from Britain, each state minted its own currency and this was a debacle. How would one determine how much New Jersey dollars would one get in trade for, say, Connecticut dollars?

      Not so. I'd love to see a source for these assertions.

  27. ...And nothing of value was lost. by Kaenneth · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Seriously, what did you expect?

    1. Re:...And nothing of value was lost. by hedwards · · Score: 1

      but, but, but this time it was going to be different than the previous several dozen times that people bought imaginary financial instruments.

  28. securityhulk on twitter says it best by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    http://twitter.com/#!/securityhulk/status/126380860864864257

    read it - cant post it here because its all caps (on purpose)

  29. You're already invested in thin air by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    FYI, there is nothing of actual value backing up your US dollars.

    1. Re:You're already invested in thin air by AbRASiON · · Score: 1

      This post should be moderated up and people should do some reading on the gold standard http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard
      The fact is many currencies are simply paper numbers with no true value. Inflation has been haywire ever since the gold standard went away.

      I'm over simplifying but for the most part it's true. Banks also can basically 'make' money out of thin air, it's pretty nuts.

    2. Re:You're already invested in thin air by Patch86 · · Score: 1

      The "thing of actual value" that backs up a dollar (/pound/euro) is the fact that it is legal tender. This means that if you ever owe a debt, the creditor will always accept that currency to settle it. Importantly, this applies to taxes- if you owe taxes, your government can insist on only being paid in their legal tender (which they will- governments don't barter), and if you don't pay your taxes, you go to jail.

      You're free to trade in things other than legal tender. If you want to offer US dollars to a UK shopkeeper, and he accepts, you can. If you want to offer him Bitcoins, and he accepts, you can. If you want to offer him payment in goats, that's fine too. But if he says that he'll only accept pounds sterling, then that's all he will accept.

      You can't demand to exchange a pound for silver any more, that's true. But then you can't demand to exchange silver for anything either- so even if you do exchange your GBP for silver, you still don't have anything of inherent value unless you can convince someone to trade you something else again for it.

  30. A small Bitcoin success by Teppy · · Score: 5, Interesting
    Our new game, "Dragon's Tale," functions exclusively in Bitcoins. It's a gambling MMORPG based on the same technology as our previous game, "A Tale in the Desert." Choosing Bitcoins means that I never have to worry about PayPal freezing my account, or about $25 chargeback fees, or making Mastercard a 2.5% partner in my business.

    When we started Dragon's Tale, Bitcoins were worth 5 cents, and people played for 100's at a time. When Bitcoins were $30, people played for fractions of a coin. Now that Bitcoins are $2.00 or whatever, they may spend a Bitcoin or two on a play session.

    The point is that the exchange rate to dollars is irrelevant - players play at the level they're comfortable with, and our revenue (viewed in dollars) has been increasing steadily.

    1. Re:A small Bitcoin success by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I have notified Sony of your trademark confusion.

      And people who gamble bitcoins are idiots.

    2. Re:A small Bitcoin success by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Good luck with that.

    3. Re:A small Bitcoin success by plsenjy · · Score: 1

      Fraction of a bitcoin? How?

      --
      Glad I could help.
    4. Re:A small Bitcoin success by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm sorry but that's the most stupid business case I have ever heard off. Do you seriously believe that you are not turning away more than 2.5% of your customer base by only accepting Bitcoin? The amount of potential customers you are loosing is far greater than the 2.5% transaction fee Mastercard would charge you to use their service!

    5. Re:A small Bitcoin success by Teppy · · Score: 1

      Bitcoins are infinitely divisible in theory, and divisible to 1/100000000 in the current implementation. We give away 1/1000 BTC units called "Bitmils" for people to try the game with. (And some just take the gifts and withdraw - not a big deal for such small amounts.)

    6. Re:A small Bitcoin success by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      So in other words, you run an illegal online casino hidden under the guise of a game.

      Interesting.

    7. Re:A small Bitcoin success by sexconker · · Score: 1

      Fraction of a bitcoin? How?

      Fraction of a dollar? How?

      There will only ever be 21,000,000 bitcoins. (We have not mined them all yet, but that is the universal maximum.)
      We can split bitcoins up infinitely. Most clients let you go to 8 decimal points or something (.00000001 BTC), but they can easily be updated in the future to be more precise.

    8. Re:A small Bitcoin success by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So you've got an effective microtransaction system based on points, that people will have trouble translating back into real dollars and will be inclined to overspend.

      That makes it a very similar system to XBOX Live's points (Among many, many other examples), you're just using an existing "currency" to mask the real worth of what they're spending.

      I think it's a great business idea, but I've always found that kind of abstraction a bit distasteful since it takes advantage of people's inability to properly associate with .

    9. Re:A small Bitcoin success by zensoldier · · Score: 1

      There must be 50 games or more inside Dragon's Tale. It's a gambling word. I also play poker at Seals. There are some reasons to hold coins.

    10. Re:A small Bitcoin success by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nah, can't be. Buttcoin's all scammers and bad economics. The FUD CAN'T BE WRONG! I mean: It aligns perfectly with my fears, uncertainties and doubts!

      --
      Wizards First Rule: People are Stupid; They'll believe anything if they fear it to be true.

    11. Re:A small Bitcoin success by TeknoHog · · Score: 1

      In the same way as you can have fractions of a dollar. However, bitcoin is divisible down to 8 decimals. So even if the value of 1 BTC were one million dollars, you could still use them for small transactions.

      --
      Escher was the first MC and Giger invented the HR department.
    12. Re:A small Bitcoin success by iluvcapra · · Score: 1

      If you maintained any significant portion of your current assets in Bitcoin you could be in a lot of trouble, and if you'd made any employment contracts over the last three months with people denominated in Bitcoin THEY'd now be in a lot of trouble.

      Bitcoin is great for sending money over the internet if you instantly convert your cash into it, and then your recipient instantly converts it back, but doesn't that sort of defeat the whole "decentralization" aspect? All of your transactions are now doubled up at your exchange, which necessarily binds Bitcoin wallets to real names and bank information, can be easily seized by the government, and with every transaction you're losing a bid-ask spread and transaction fee.

      --
      Don't blame me, I voted for Baltar.
    13. Re:A small Bitcoin success by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's irrelevant as long as it's reasonably stable over the life of your transactions...

    14. Re:A small Bitcoin success by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I never have to worry about PayPal freezing my account, or about $25 chargeback fees, or making Mastercard a 2.5% partner in my business

      Indeed - you never had to worry about your money again.

    15. Re:A small Bitcoin success by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Choosing bitcoins as the only payment method for your game has the added benefit of keeping your player base small and easily managable.

    16. Re:A small Bitcoin success by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Eventually, the Feds will catch up to your illegal gambling business and shut you down.

      God damn it. When did Slashdot start doing Reddit-style comment throttling? Actually, this system is even more obnoxious than Reddit's.

    17. Re:A small Bitcoin success by slashdotfuckingsucks · · Score: 1

      Eventually, the Feds will shut down your illegal gambling business, arrest you, and seize your assets. And you're not even trying to hide the fact that you're in Pennsylvania. BTW, since Slashdot forced me to open this account in order to post, I am publishing its password: hEkFYXBK

    18. Re:A small Bitcoin success by FoolishOwl · · Score: 1

      Given the widespread "gold-farming" and organized crime involvement in MMORPGs, this is a natural direction for them to move.

  31. R. Mewster's Billions by Dogtanian · · Score: 1

    Stop with the Bitcoin Slashvertizements already. No crackpot schemes wanted here.

    You really think that this story describing how the value of Bitcoin is extremely volatile and has plumetted to a tiny fraction of its previous value is biased publicity aimed at roping in people who need a way to lose a large amount of money within a very short period of time? That hadn't occurred to me, but thanks for pointing it out.

    I myself am involved in a scheme that requires me to squander my inheritance and was almost led into believing that Bitcoin would be suitable for this purpose. Thank you for drawing my attention to this.

    --
    "Slashdot - News and Chat Sites Deviant". (Click "homepage" link above for details).
  32. There are better investment options by e-banker · · Score: 2

    Thank goodness I have my 401k in the Linden.

  33. Haha by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Haha fuckers. I bet the majority of you bought the top. Currency manipulation is all over the place.

    You dumbasses can start here: http://bearfactsspecialistreport.com/the_specialist_system

  34. VALUE? by roman_mir · · Score: 0

    Value? I don't think the submitter knows what that word means.

    There is no value in Bitcoins, there never was, it was always a valueless concept.

    1. Re:VALUE? by Cyko_01 · · Score: 1

      if you can buy them with real world money and you can sell them for real world money then they have value

    2. Re:VALUE? by TeknoHog · · Score: 1

      There is no value in Bitcoins, there never was, it was always a valueless concept.

      How is it different from USD, then? Each currency is only worth what you can buy with it.

      --
      Escher was the first MC and Giger invented the HR department.
    3. Re:VALUE? by roman_mir · · Score: 1

      USD also has no value. It's printed and nothing is produced to create it, it's all a bubble, and one day people who have US dollars are going to wake up and see that just like the BitCoins, USD are worth 1/10th of what they were worth yesterday.

    4. Re:VALUE? by tomhudson · · Score: 1

      if you can buy them with real world money and you can sell them for real world money then they have value

      I can buy packs of Monopoly Money using real world money, and the store is selling packs of Monopoly Money for real world money ... but the Monopoly Money has no value as a currency.

      Even Canadian Tire money has real-world value.

  35. Re:STOP WITH THE SLASHVERTISEMENTS FOR BITCOIN by Thud457 · · Score: 1

    yeah, we're only interested in serious long-term investment like stock-funded 401Ks.
    fuck, I'm going to have to live in a cardboard box once I get too old to get hired for a job. Thanks a lot, boomers.

    --

    the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

  36. is it a crash? by Arancaytar · · Score: 1

    Doesn't a crash usually mean a record low, rather than the decline of a particularly enormous peak?

    If it's still a multiple of what it was earlier in the year, that's just a regular fluctuation.

    (Still, I'm kind of miffed I didn't pay attention in June and sold my mined coins for more money than I've ever owned.)

    1. Re:is it a crash? by brusk · · Score: 1

      Doesn't a crash usually mean a record low, rather than the decline of a particularly enormous peak?

      No. If a stock market were to triple its value over a decade, then lose half its peak value in a week, I think that would qualify as a crash, even though it was still up from ten years earlier. It depends on the time scale you're looking at

      --
      .sig withheld by request
  37. Well duh by DrXym · · Score: 1

    People were hoarding these things, not spending them, treating them some kind of security which magically only went up in value. Except of course it was was never anything else than a crowd sourced Ponzi and when people start selling panic takes over and the price plummets. More fool anyone who bought into it and got burned.

    1. Re:Well duh by Dunbal · · Score: 1

      That's because the whole thing had no value other than human greed and the expectation of wealth. For a currency to have value not only must it be secure but it also must maintain a perceived value over time as well as be widely accepted for conversion into goods and services. Bitcoin had neither. Almost no one accepted bitcoin directly. Bitcoin exchanges for US dollars were not immediate, and of course they charged commission. And once people realized that the value of bitcoin could move down as well as up when the server got hacked, no one saw it as a "sound investment" anymore. Those who got out stayed out, and those who got burned have probably been slowly getting their remaining assets out. Even attempts by the so-called bitcoin exchanges to artificially prop up its value by pretending the "crash" was an error, or didn't happen, have met with failure. Why? Because only idiots are putting money into the system now and eventually even idiots get the message. The net flow of money is OUT, not in.

      As an experiment in human greed and bubble formation, however, Bitcoin was an excellent example and a resounding success.

      --
      Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.
    2. Re:Well duh by ErikZ · · Score: 1

      So, what normally happens when people start selling and panic takes over?

      --
      Democrats or Republicans. They are both taking us to the same place and they are not afraid of us anymore.
    3. Re:Well duh by DrXym · · Score: 1

      Yup and the funny part was this was all entirely predictable. The idea was interesting but the implementation was naive, insecure and human greed took care to ensure the entire thing collapsed.

  38. Modern Economic Theory by jaypifer · · Score: 0

    Ladies and gentlemen, may I present a product of our public education sytem. Two paragraphs of half-thoughts and half-truths summed up with nonsense.

    There are decent criticisms of Bitcoin. You somehow missed them all with this rambling.

    --
    Never go to sea with two chronometers; take one or three.
    1. Re:Modern Economic Theory by JasterBobaMereel · · Score: 1

      Bitcoin is worth what people think it's worth - people currently think it's worth a lot less than before

      the value is unlikely to go up in the near future...and very likely to go down further

      If it stabilises at a usable value then BitCoin will survive ... if not then it will be abandoned ...

      --
      Puteulanus fenestra mortis
  39. Occupy Bit Street! by Anne_Nonymous · · Score: 2, Funny

    What do we want?

    We're not sure!!!

    When do we want it?

    Right now!!!

    1. Re:Occupy Bit Street! by VocationalZero · · Score: 1

      leave the tea party out of this

  40. Ehm... Ohm... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
  41. Bitcoin to revolutionise the economy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Bitcoin is a decentralised computer currency designed by self-righteous Ayn Rand-reading nerds who despise looters and parasites like, er, you. It is used to purchase Internet services, illegal drugs and pictures of naked women holding video cards.

    Bitcoin works by an emergent synergy of cryptography, peer-to-peer, anonymity, anarchism, libertarianism, wasting stupendous quantities of electricity, the marketing department at NVidia, the enduring exchange value of tulip bulbs and doing all of this instead of Folding@Home.

    Bitcoin successfully harnesses a hitherto-unexploited Internet resource: the vast reserves of unexamined privilege amongst computer programmers. Coins are “mined” by stealing them from people who are able to comprehend this level of computer science but still keep their Bitcoin wallet in plain text on a Windows machine.

    The Bitcoin system is robustly designed to continue past the inevitable collapse of the US dollar and the world economy, as the Internet, fast computers and reliable electricity are all expected to be readily available when barbarian hordes are wandering the burnt-out post-apocalyptic remnants of civilisation.

    It is completely incorrect to describe Bitcoin as a “pyramid scheme.” Technically, it’s a “pump-and-dump.”

    Many common products are still inexplicably not purchasable with Bitcoins. “It’s like they don’t understand the revolutionary wonder of Bitcoin,” says Debian developer Hiram Nerdboy, 17. “I can’t get chicks with Bitcoins either. Even with my slickest Pick-Up Artist techniques! It’s as if my knowledge of economics, game theory and Bayesian epistemology didn’t substitute for understanding anything about people. But that’s impossible, of course. They’re probably just theists. Hold on, I just gotta post to Slashdot about this.”

    Bitcoin was invented by Internet libertarians, in the spirit of freely-chosen individual interpersonal interactions that will bring about the utter collapse of the oppressive taint of the dead hand of government, in order to make money at your expense.

    http://newstechnica.com/2011/06/18/bitcoin-to-revolutionise-the-economy/

  42. Re:STOP WITH THE SLASHVERTISEMENTS FOR BITCOIN by tehcyder · · Score: 1

    There is a saying that there's no such thing as bad publicity.

    And this story is bound to make a few retards think "hmmm, if bitcoins value has gone done so much, it can only go up again, so I'd better invest now while they're cheap."

    --
    To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  43. Now is a better time to buy them than before by satuon · · Score: 1

    I had considered buying a few bitcoins out of interest but the price for them seemed a little too high, so I had decided to wait until the inevitable crash happens. Now I might look into buying, or I might wait a little more until they're worth cents. For me buying something that has just had a tremendous decline in the price is not a problem - after all, I haven't lost money because I never bought them while they were expensive. I'd rather buy cheap than expensive.

  44. At least it wasn't due to security flaws by mathimus1863 · · Score: 1

    I have been writing BTC software for the past couple months as well as studying the cryptography behind it. One thing BTC has going for it is that it's remarkably secure given that it's decentralized. The price drop is more to do with lack of interest (and probably dumping by botnet owners who mine only to sell them). This leaves two possibilities:

    (1) BTC has a chance to continue to be used, and catch on again later, when its merits have been demonstrated through simple longevity. If, in two years, there still has not been a successful attack on the network, people can mess around with it without feeling like they're taking a huge risk.
    (2) The proof of concept is done. Whether BTC itself survives, or there is some new, related cryptocurrency, Bitcoin itself proved that such a decentralized system can exist. I fully believe that something like BTC will prevail in the future, whether it's BTC itself or not. In a world where people are craving less gov't and less big banks/money, I think there is a lot of desire for a decentralized, secure currency.

    I think it's major downfall was the lack of usability by regular users -- which is why I set out to write my own software. The core developers did a great job with protocol and security, but it was never usable by non tech-savvy people who were only mildly interested. I still have grand plans for how to bring all the features of BTC to the general public without requiring waiting 24 hours for the blockchain to download, and with the ability to easily encrypt wallets and keep BTC safe offline. It was only recently that the core developers were able to get wallet-encryption implemented, but it was way too late--after a string of high-profile attacks and thefts caused negative PR and massive loss of interest in the currency.

    Something like BTC will exist in the future. And I think the system that succeeds will be one in which both the protocol is secure and the system is usable by Joe the Plumber.

    1. Re:At least it wasn't due to security flaws by mbkennel · · Score: 1

      "And I think the system that succeeds will be one in which both the protocol is secure and the system is usable by Joe the Plumber."

      Joe the Plumber has no idea whether the new software you wrote is actually secure and real, or just happens to look identical but is riddled with backdoors connecting directly to Romania.

      On the other hand, Joe the Plumber knows that a piece of paper or a coin is not on the internet.

  45. Don't you see what this means?! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The dollar is so volatile: in spite of the dollar making a strong 10x comeback since June, it has still lost 2/3 of its value since April!

  46. Value of a currency by Spazmania · · Score: 1

    The value of a currency is tied to the goods and services you can buy with it at a price independent of its relation to other currencies. Monopoly money is worthless because the only thing I can buy with it is squares on a game board.

    Trying to find out what I could buy with bitcoins, I went to a site called "bitcoincyberstore." None of the products quoted prices in bitcoins... they quoted prices in U.S. Dollars. This does not bode well for Bitcoin's viability.

    --
    Moderating "-1, Disagree" is simple censorship. Have the guts to post your opinion.
  47. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  48. Ah, Slashdot by Siberwulf · · Score: 3, Funny

    Come for the tech, stay for the fiscal policy lectures.

  49. Boxtops by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Everyone knows that boxtops are the best currency, because they're backed by cereal.

  50. the real problem by slashmydots · · Score: 1

    As a bitcoin miner and somewhat expert, I'll let you in on the REAL reason the price crashed. The price goes up when more people are buying bitcoins than selling them in the exchange. If everyone's jumping on the system and starting up stores and casinos and whatnot, tons of people are buying thousands at a time. So if you mine bitcoins and then sell them off for USD in the exchange, you're causing the price to lower. What you're "supposed" to do is buy stuff for bitcoins from bitcoin-accepting vendors to keep the economy rolling and the price high.
    But let's say you do go to Cablesaurus and want to buy one of their cables for bitcoins. The price in BTC is based on its value in USD. You know why that is? Because the owner of the store is going to sell all your BTC for USD in the exchange. So it's the same as if you threw the BTC up on the exchange for USD. Right now, the whole system is so established that nobody has any reason to buy into it so effectively, there's no reason for the price to go up. What caused it to drop so quickly though were massive security breaches resulting in tens of thousands of coins to be sold at once. Since nobody is buying into the system with USD at the exchanges, it never went back up.

  51. so? by llamapater · · Score: 1

    it's a new currency and currency concept expect fluctuation it probably won't be stable for a while

  52. People who bought bitcoins by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Are suckers. It is that simple. I can't even believe that the slashdot community would take more than 30 seconds to talk about this subject. Bitcoin is a horrible idea, it has no place in our global economy, most people have never even heard of it, etc. Next.

  53. At what point does Bitcoin become protestable? by haeger · · Score: 1

    This was posted by a member of the bitcoin forum. I think s/he has a point.
    Not me, so I don't take any credit for it.

    As best I can tell 35.5% of all bitcoins have already been minted. These 7,473,950 coins are all property of existing bitcoin users. There seem to be about 41,280 registered members of this site. I'll be generous and say there are ten times as many bitcoin users as there are members. That means about 410,280 bitcoin owners with on average 18 BTC each. Clearly BTC ownership is more concentrated than this, but lets be egalitarian for the moment.

    If we pretended all bitcoin owners were all Americans that is about 0.13% of the population. It's not of course. Bitcoin is intended to be a world currency. So 0.0068% of the world population own 100% of all current and at least 35.5% of all possible bitcoins.

    The view on this forum is that the world will come to their senses, throw out fiat currencies and move to something rational like Bitcoin. This of course means 6,000,000,000 people basically begging to use a resource owned by a relative handful of people. Say we just minted up the remaining 13,526,050 BTC and scattered them to late adopters purely out of the kindness in our hearts. That means about 0.00225 BTC for each of them to use in rebuilding their economy. Sure 18 BTC on average doesn't make us feel very rich. But it is 8,000 times what everyone else would have if we stopped competitive minting today.

    But we won't stop competing of course. Sometime around Pearl Harbor Day of next year Bitcoin will hit the 50% distributed mark.

    ----
    By that day, how many active Bitcoin users and daily goods trades do there need to be to make a sustainable Bitcoin economy viable?
    ----

    Because to potential new adopters, after that point Bitcoin is going to look like a new a 21,000,000 coin currency with a 10,500,000 coin pre-generation that went to the creator and his "friends". Certainly people will stop caring about Bitcoin long before they show up on our doorsteps with signs saying,

    "We are the 99.9932%!"

    Link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=48521.0

    --
    You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. -- Harlan Ellison
  54. Who loves Paypal? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The amount of joy many slashdotters seem to get out of any bad news about Bitcoin always surprises me.

    Sure it has a lot of flaws, but the concept as a whole still has a lot of potential.

    Especially when the current standard is PayPal.

  55. Correlation by Phanatic1a · · Score: 1

    Bitcoin price over the past year: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zvztgCzm1g10zm2g25

    What every asset bubble looks like: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-bubble-lifecycle.php

    Bitcoins are going to keep falling, they're not at the "despair" part of the cycle yet.

  56. Lightening Rods by jaypifer · · Score: 1

    The purpose of speculators is to be scapegoats for everything that goes wrong when the rest of us buy or sell something. How else would we explain how we lose money?

    --
    Never go to sea with two chronometers; take one or three.
    1. Re:Lightening Rods by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      The purpose of speculators is to be scapegoats for everything that goes wrong when the rest of us buy or sell something. How else would we explain how we lose money?

      The price of a barrel of oil drops 50% and the price of a gallon of gas drops 1.5%. Refining and transporting is only 11% of the price of gasoline.

      The price of oil starts to drop, and "speculators" buy tankers full of oil and have them drop anchor off the coast until the price goes up. Does the person who drills the oil make more? Does the person who refines the oil make more does anyone in the long chain of labor from oilfield to gas station make more? No.

      Today, when something goes wrong when the rest of us buy or sell something, it is perfectly reasonable to assume that speculators are a big part of the reason.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    2. Re:Lightening Rods by jaypifer · · Score: 1

      Somebody sold it to the "speculators" at a profit, they didn't steal it. I notice nobody is so eager to blame speculators when they make money. Also, the price could drop lower should the person who drilled it share in the speculators loss?

      Speculators are a tiny minority of investors. You are giving them far too much power.

      --
      Never go to sea with two chronometers; take one or three.
  57. Or cash? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You know you could accept payments the old fashioned way, by cash or money order?

  58. U235 coin by lister+king+of+smeg · · Score: 1

    well then why don't we use uranium 235 as a base metal for currency, it is highly valuable, there is less of it than gold, and the worlds supply is limited and it will shrink at predictably, due to its consumption for fuel and natural breakdown, thus leading to the currency becoming ever more valuable. it ought to last us a couple of hundred years at least until space-mining becomes the norm but by then are consumption will have gone up to a match the demand. so it could conceivably last until interstellar travel is normalized. we could make also trade in other nuclear fuels he3 or plutonium 239

    --
    ---Saying gnome 3 is better than windows 8 not so much a compliment as it is damning with light praise.
    1. Re:U235 coin by iamthelaw · · Score: 1

      Honest answer: It's not useless. The fact that it has applications means that the demand for it as a currency (as an exchange commodity) is competing heavily with the demand for it as a fuel. This means it tilts towards being a consumable commodity.

      Also, it's dangerous to carry in your pocket.

    2. Re:U235 coin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's a bad idea to use a commodity backed currency, especially one that's probably not as scarce as you claim and as illegal to trade in as you don't appear to comprehend.

      Other than that, just about anything can be used as a basis for currency. It's not a point to dwell on. Currency's great contribution to society is the division of labor it affords. People no longer have to clug around whatever their main output is and barter it.

      For that matter, you don't want a currency to naturally deflate itself. Deflation is VERY BAD, and inflation isn't as bad as the lay people like to claim.

    3. Re:U235 coin by lister+king+of+smeg · · Score: 1

      do you carry gold in your pocket? no. and you can carry it in your pocket in a unrefined state, i have a friend who bought a few chunks or unrefined uranium, and some that has been refined (but not enriched) and and suspend in in glass and made into marbles, i have some thorium sitting on a shelf in my room, both uranium and thorium can be used for nuclear fuel (thorium was considered for use as fuel but plutonium puts out more energy and was cheaper to produce, and was chosen even though thorium is safer) uranium as long as it is not enriched is fairly safe to handle despite common belief.

      --
      ---Saying gnome 3 is better than windows 8 not so much a compliment as it is damning with light praise.
    4. Re:U235 coin by iamthelaw · · Score: 1

      I shouldn't let myself be dragged into this, but here goes. The serious part of my answer was the first one -- if uranium were in fact useless, then we could use uranium-backed paper notes; with the same caveats that apply to gold-backed paper notes. But uranium is not useless, so it doesn't fit my definition. So based on my criteria for a currency, uranium does not qualify prima facie, and for the same reason that coal doesn't.

      The second part of my answer, which was a weak attempt at humor, has been addressed by your post, and I hereby retract. That said, many people do overestimate the danger of radiation, especially in small amounts, and much of the danger comes from refined radioactives or the attempt to refine them. Just be careful that you don't fall on the other side of that equation.

  59. inflation proof by chocolatetrumpet · · Score: 1

    How about a commodity balanced digital currency where x number of units will always be equal to the price of y bailes of hay, z barrels of oil, etc.?

    --
    Spoon not. Fork, or fork not. There is no spoon.
    1. Re:inflation proof by pushing-robot · · Score: 1

      Okay, now a drought occurs and your harvesters work just as hard but collect only half as much hay.

      Now to keep prices constant you have to ration the hay when it goes to market. Otherwise, the first buyers would grab up all the hay for a low price, leaving the rest to starve.

      Then you have to subsidize the harvesters, since they did just as much work but got half the pay. Of course, then you have to find a way to pay for that subsidy: You can tax everybody, which would upset people who don't use hay, or you can just put a tax on hay, which would leave you with a very inefficient form of supply and demand pricing...the very thing you were trying to avoid in the first place.

      Similarly, let's say somebody invents a new "gas guzzler" SUV that uses twice as much fuel (and thus oil) as current vehicles. Oil is fairly cheap and the price is locked to your currency, so people have no problem affording the extra fuel. The vehicle becomes hugely popular and soon oil production can't keep up with demand. Shortages and long lines abound, and industries shudder to a halt as they compete with cars for the oil supply. You again set up rationing plans and subsidies and end up with an inefficient and artificial version of supply and demand.

      If it makes you feel better, plenty of dictators have had the same idea. The idea certainly sells well to the bread-and-circuses public, and as long as you can find someone else to blame for the inevitable shortages and rationing, you can string people along on a policy like this for decades.

      --
      How can I believe you when you tell me what I don't want to hear?
    2. Re:inflation proof by chocolatetrumpet · · Score: 1

      Very thoughtful... thanks. :-)

      --
      Spoon not. Fork, or fork not. There is no spoon.
  60. Bots Controlling Market by kernelphr34k · · Score: 0

    What everyone has failed to mention (maybe someone did but I did not see the post) is that there are BOTS that are doing thousands of transactions LOWERING the value of bitcoin. These bot owners are lowering the value for there mission or some one else. Either way, the bot owners are FUKING with the bitcoin market. Exchanges have failed to stop this, and their excuses is free market. There are WAYS to fix this, but its up to the exchanges who are not doing a single thing.

    Some of the bots have been in the news, while others have not. There has been people that have been tracking and trying to combat these bots, but nothing will change unless the exchanges DO SOMETHING.

    -http://www.f-secure.com/weblog/archives/00002207.html
    -https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=45909.0
    I would not be surprised if there were more.

    1. Re:Bots Controlling Market by TechLA · · Score: 1

      It's hilarious that you rant about trading bots while at the same time Bitcoin is promoted as a non-controlled currency and free from real world restrictions. Freedom goes both ways, you know.

  61. So invest in the new Quantum money - QuantumCoin! by tomhudson · · Score: 2

    Sooooo boring having your money always be where you left it. And federally insured? Ugh.

    With QuantumCoin, your money can both be there and not be there at the same time. So, even if the balance says you're broke one day, just come back tomorrow ...

    Unlike BitCoin, QuantumCoins have (at least) two sides. And if you DO lose a QuantumCoin, just check in the cracks in the couch - even if you lost it outside, because QuantumCoins can still re-appear in places other than where they were lost (they're the reverse of the sock-eating clothes dryer, thanks to QuantumPower!)

    So, send me your ordinary money, and I'll send you back QuantumCoins! (which if you don't see them when you look in your mailbox, just look again until you get it right!* Or check your mailbox BEFORE you send in the order to see if they've arrived BEFORE we shipped them or even before you place your order, by using our custom two slit QuantumCoin detector - please order separately ... or at the same time ... it may or may not make a difference, depending ...)

    *Some restrictions apply. Due to temporal probability factors, the time required for "just look again" may exceed the heat death of the universe. If you suspect your shipment was "eaten" by such effects, you can "double down" on another order of QuantumCoins - after all, if you do it enough, they eventually ALL have to appear (for different values of "ALL have to").

  62. the sheer amount of stupid.... by Xeranar · · Score: 1

    Boggles my mind. Slashdot runs with all the most ludicrous right-wing BS humanly possible.

    The federal Reserve is a government agency that is self-regulating with smaller branches making up the larger board. Each branch has 3 sets of directors. One for the government, one for banks, and one for the people usually represented by a business interest. They are NOT responsible for printing money. The treasury prints money. The federal reserve is able to lend money through an overnight window and create borrowing through it but all of that money is backed by the US government. The concept revolves around fractional banking & the multiplier effect.

    Since bitcoins are unregulated the arbitrage deals that occur are pushed through by speculators trying to manipulate the market in the exact opposite way that the federal reserve does. In other words speculators are trying to destabilize the market while the Reserve is attempting to stabilize it.

  63. What's wroing with Bitcoin by Animats · · Score: 1

    Bitcon is a solution to the problem of irrevocable unidirectional decentralized remote money transfer between anonymous parties. This is the scammer's dream - there's no way the mark can even find the hustler. Sure enough, the Bitcoin world has been full of scams, such as "online wallet" operations that took the money and ran, "exchanges" that went out of business and kept the customer's money, and much hype from a promoter who turned out to have been running a mortgage scam in Chicago. Then there's "Global Standard Bank", the "Bitcoin bank" in Montreal, which isn't a bank, ran phony Photoshopped pictures of their bank building, and is still on eBay selling "Bitcoin cards".

    A distributed currency might be possible, but Bitcoin isn't it.

    The speculative side of Bitcoin is a straight pyramid scheme. The people behind the scheme, who got in early, win, and everybody else loses. I said this on Downside on June 11, 2011 right after the peak.

  64. Volatility by sjbe · · Score: 1

    But that isn't even the problem. I transferred some cash to BitCoins and back on Friday and it was paid out to me on Sunday. By the time I got the transfer, it had lost almost half of its value.

    This should not be remotely surprising. You used an illiquid, thinly traded medium of exchange. Such assets are inherently prone to volatility. You can speculate on volatility and might even get lucky but anyone who expects bitcoin to be a stable currency anytime soon is an idiot.

    Now imagine if that would constantly happen with your real money.

    It does. The only difference is the volatility isn't usually as bad. But hyperinflation and debt defaults can cause fluctuations in "real" currencies of similar magnitude.

  65. Redundant statements by sjbe · · Score: 1

    Our new game, "Dragon's Tale," functions exclusively in Bitcoins. It's a gambling MMORPG based...

    Saying it is a gambling game using bitcoin is a redundant statement.

    Choosing Bitcoins means that I never have to worry about PayPal freezing my account, or about $25 chargeback fees, or making Mastercard a 2.5% partner in my business.

    I guarantee you that using bitcoin costs you FAR more than 2.5% in lost revenue alone since very few people are going to be willing to use bitcoin. Not to mention the transaction costs, exchange rate risk, counterparty risk, accounting complexity and other issues.

  66. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 1

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  67. Value is subjective by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You may think that thing you're offering has value, but if other people don't, you won't ever get anything from them.

    Conversely, even the smelliest piece of turd will sell if somebody thinks it's valuable.

    It's how most governments work! :D

  68. Any Libertarian casualties? by damburger · · Score: 1

    I want to seriously know something here:

    This project was in part, inspired by libertarian economic ideology. Has anybody, witnessing this event, changed their mind - even slightly?

    I'm not wanting to hear from people reaffirming their beliefs. Is anyone out there re-evaluating anything in light of new data?

    --
    If we can put a man on the moon, why can't we shoot people for Apollo-related non-sequiturs?
  69. Re:STOP WITH THE SLASHVERTISEMENTS FOR BITCOIN by BigSlowTarget · · Score: 1

    >There is a saying that there's no such thing as bad publicity.

    The closing price below today's open disagrees.

  70. 420 BITCOIN LAWL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Bitcoin is used almost exclusively for purchasing illegal and prescription drugs online. It's the currency of criminals. Hardly surprising that it doesn't work very well.

  71. UK Channel 4 News and Bitcoin by turgid · · Score: 1

    Last month Channel 4 News did a story about the "hidden internet" (i.e. illegal drugs trading, arms, slavery, child sexual abuse etc.) and "its currency: Bitcoin."

    Unusually for Channel 4 News, the direct link was made between Bitcoin and illegal activity i.e. the false premise that Bitcoin was designed specifically to facilitate crime on the Internet.

    Maybe I'm naive and still believe that the Internet is for the common good and that Bitcoin was a legitimate tool, but maybe it was just designed for crooks all along, just like TOR, which they also talk about.

    1. Re:UK Channel 4 News and Bitcoin by Ant+P. · · Score: 1

      Just for anyone who may not know: Channel 4 is the closest thing the UK has to Fox News.

    2. Re:UK Channel 4 News and Bitcoin by turgid · · Score: 1

      Just for anyone who may not know: Channel 4 is the closest thing the UK has to Fox News.

      Not on my planet.

  72. Speculation isn't one-sided by Boawk · · Score: 1

    When speculators are right, they even out price fluctuations...When speculators are wrong or generally stupid, all hell breaks loose.

    The problem with this explanation is that there are always two sides to a transaction. When one person speculates that a low priced item will increase in price and wants to buy up that item, there is someone on the other side of the transaction who does not share that belief (e.g., speculating in the opposite direction) and who wants to sell that item. Both sides of the transaction are speculating, yes?

    1. Re:Speculation isn't one-sided by mbkennel · · Score: 1

      In commodities, the side selling is often a producer, and not a speculator. The producer has an interest in guaranteeing enough sales at a certain price level to cover fixed costs, because it helps manage their business better.

      Options may be more applicable for this case, but in effect one side is more risk-averse (the producer) and the other is willing to take the risk.

      To be concrete, the executive at the mining company is more likely to be fired for losing a certain percent of money vs the speculator, because the investors/managers in the company have a different attitude towards fluctuations of a certain size than investors in a commodity fund.

  73. Gold and the growth of the world economy by Boawk · · Score: 1

    I would add a phenomenological aspect of gold: over the long term the average growth of the world economy has been about 2% which is the same average by which the supply of gold has increased.

  74. Bitcoin Value by tokencode · · Score: 1

    Bitcoin is akin to making a limited edition collector item and saying it is now currency simply because there is a limited number of them. Yea you might find a few other people with a similiar interested in said collectable, but it is only worth what it can be traded for in terms of REAL currency, not a currency in and of itself. Baseball cards or old toys will hold their value better than a bitcoin.

  75. Stupid '90%' headlines... by John+Pfeiffer · · Score: 1

    I'm glad to see Slashdot not jumping on the "AHAHAHAHA BITCOIN VALUE DOWN OVER 90%" headline bandwagon.

    Not to get in the way of a good headline, but every time I see that I want to rant at the people who ran the story. That 'peak', where the value went over $20 and peaked around $50 lasted for maybe three hours to the best of my recollection. On average, it's barely been above $10-$15 for any extended period of time in the last several months, and before that, the peak was like $8. The price still hasn't dipped as low as it was before the summer. (Hell, only a couple months before the surge in popularity, BTC were still worth less than a dollar!)

    I'll tell you though, I'm glad I never put any money into bitcoins, just mining with my GPU when I'm not gaming. I always knew some kind of crash was coming sooner or later, so I was only in it for the free money. :] (Of which I made like $500)

    Of course, I wish I'd seen it coming instead of thinking it was just a price dip, I would've dumped the last of my BTC for some Amazon or Newegg giftcards while it was still $8... ;P

    --

    Friend: "The NIC is misconfigured..." Me: "No prob, I'll just telnet in and fix it." *Silence*
  76. Bitcoin fatal flaw: a commodity-based currency by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The commodity being processing time. Many people, even among otherwise progressive Occupy protesters, mistakenly think that fiat money is the root of the financial crisis and growing inequality; this is completely mistaken and the robber barons would gain power just as easily, if not more, in a commodity-based, fixed currency exchange system. Removing the government's sovereign power to issue currency is doing away one of its most powerful policy tools of macroeconomic influence. The real cause of problems has been a political and banking class under the heavy influence of neo-liberal economics (as opposed to MMT (Modern Monetary Theory/neo-Chartalism)) which results in a misunderstanding of how the fiat money system 'really' works, absolutely dismal regulation and enforcement of regulation, over-leverage of banks in terms of capital/asset ratio (_not_ reserve ratio), the revolving door of Washington, idiotic austerity measures instead of deficit spending, misunderstanding of macroeconomic debt by committing the fallacy of composition, central banks with little oversight and accountability, and relying on public borrowing by government. So what are alternatives? MMT is mostly a descriptive framework for understanding a fiat system properly, and it has a lot of explanatory power http://hir.harvard.edu/debt-deficits-and-modern-monetary-theory However, once informed by MMT, specific proposals can be made to fix things: http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=5098 and http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=4656 and http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=5240 and more.

  77. Conspiracy Theory by murdocj · · Score: 1

    There's more wacko conspiracy theory threads in these comments than in all three Deus Ex games put together.

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  79. = 21 million bitcoins... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    FTFA: "the protocol guarantees that there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoins in existence, which supporters have argued would give the currency a stable value."

    Maybe they just needed smarter or more informed supporters. For the currency to be stability the amount of currency has to vary.If the value goes up you need more of the currency, if the value goes down you need to reduce the amount of currency.

  80. I have no clue what Bitcoin is by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And I could not be happier about that!

  81. Hrm... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0