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EU Moves To Ban Iran Crude Oil
rtoz writes with this snippet from the BBC: "EU member states have agreed in principle to ban imports of Iranian crude oil to put pressure on the country over its nuclear programme. ... The US, which recently imposed fresh sanctions on Iran, welcomed the news. ... The Iranian state gets more than half of its revenue through the export of crude oil, says the BBC's James Reynolds. If Europe does stop buying, Iran will have to turn to countries in Asia to replace its lost trade, who will demand a discount, he adds."
"Guise! Guise! I know! I have it! Listen up, guise! Let's all give China cheap oil, they really need it!"
Sort of like what the new management at /. is doing.
Meh
Something bad is coming when people are suddenly anxious to tell the truth.
Iran 'might' be working on a nuclear bomb and the EU wants to put an embargo on them.
the USA, Russia, India, China, Pakistan and Israel all HAVE nuclear bombs and the EU is happily trading and talking with them.
Conclusion:
Once Iran finishes it's research the EU and Iran will be Best Friends Forever.
Never had a problem with Eurasia. Continue on your way citizens.
We ban crude oil imports, Iran blockades the Straight of Hormuz, the US bombs Iran. They wont even need a dodgy dossier this time around. Here's to another decade of war.
All they need is to withdraw from the NPT. Iran has a perfect right to develop nuclear weapons, and a very plausible reason of deterring foreign invasion, given what happened to Iraq. Why pretend not to have a nuclear program when nobody believes you? At least they could take the "no comment" approach that Israel has.
...I mean, they should know that sanctions do not work, never have and more than probably never will.
If Iran ends up having to look for new markets in Asia, with the Asian demanding a discount, Iranians will offer the discount, but maintain revenues by pumping more.
Remember, Iran and other gulf oil states have billions and billions of oil in wells. Adding extra pumps or bringing new wells online is not that hard.
Another move to artificially increase the already artificially high price of oil. I live in the UK and can barely afford to leave the house to go to work as it is.
I don't agree with the way Iran's government thinks, but it seems clear that the US government, especially the Republicans, are spoiling for another pointless and costly war, so are pressurising Iran with punitive sanctions in order to make them take the first punch so that the US can justify it.
Even if Iran is developing a nuke, it isn't the job or right of the US to be world police. Why is it that the west can make nukes but not other countries?
Its sad to see the EU isn't using some independent judgement instead of just falling into line with US policy and acting like the US's bitch.
The EU nations import 8.5 million barrels a day. USA: 13.5. Japan: 5.5. China: 4.5. South Korea: 2.5. Get *all* of those nations to ban Iran crude and you'll substantially affect Iranian prices for the worse (and prices within the embargoing nations for the worse, too). Just EU? Meh. EU plus USA? Still meh since in fact most of the current USA's imports come from the Americas. But EU, USA, Japan, SKorea? Now we're talking. As Iran goes further and further down the list of importing nations they start having to deal with shipping into smaller ports, into ports which can't take as much oil as quickly, etc. Less efficient transactions and less efficient shipping, and potentially for a lower base price because the countries agreeing to buy Iranian oil will have negotiating leverage.
In the mean time, it wouldn't be the worst thing for each of the potentially embargoing nations to figure out how to reduce the oil required for each unit of GDP, health, or any other metric of "goodness" that the nation uses. After all, an oil embargo hurts both trade partners, but reducing demand hurts the seller and improves conditions for the (former) buyer.
Support a few technologists in Washington.
Tell Saudi Arabia we won't act against the iranian nuclear program unless they sell us cheaper oil.
What does this have to do with the premise of Technology News? I mean this is CNN shit, why do we have it posting on here? Is the EU somehow going to use IPADs or something new like embedding RFID into the oil to know that it came from Iran?!?!? Come on, this is getting annoying!
Harrison's Postulate - "For every action there is an equal and opposite criticism"
Also never mind that lot of these countries are actually self-sufficient in oil needs too.
There is not a single country in Asia that does not import oil. In fact, without Asia, an EU ban on Iranian oil imports will not bite . What are you smoking?
Innocuous, China, Africa and Asia will absorb.
In fact a few years back(not sure if this is still in effect), Iran essentially asked Japan to pay in yen(which of course in hindsight seems incredibly wise, as the yen has almost doubled in value since then), one of the first really big oil contracts to be denominated in a currency other than dollars. Should be an interesting diplomacy game to see if Washington is even able to convince Japan to restrict Iranian oil imports....
Regardless, this is the stupidity of Bush's cowboy diplomacy and Obama's kowtowing to Republicans coming home to roost. We are certainly going to be paying a lot for letting the man-child try to impress daddy and play war general.
Monstar L
Gas prices triple! Riots and chao ensue...
Obama has already made several steps towards war, and to say that the drone-campaign will continue is just the last step.
People were furious about Bush lies to start the wars. Obama has found the solution! Just don't talk about it, the people at home don't seem to care.
Sovereignty of EU "nations" has been completely thrown out of the window, first by establishing the EU government and then by completely giving in to all of these nonsense US and UN driven deals.
Of-course with most of Europe being welfare states and not actually working for what they are consuming (and most of US being in the same position), the interests of the individuals and the sovereignty of nations are completely disregarded in order to provide the continuation of the unsustainable life styles that are not paid for by those enjoying them.
This is a 'bread and circuses' culture that has been bred throughout the 'first world' countries, it's going to end the economies of those very countries, but not before they suck the life out of everything they can get their hands on always through police/military means.
They used to 'pay' for this 'welfare' with taxes of working individuals (so this was done with police force), now that the investment left those countries because of the unsustainable economic 'welfare' and counterfeiting, and the jobs now are elsewhere, they can't even tax enough to spend on their lifestyles, so now it's the job of the military to harass and steal from others, who still have something.
It was Iraq, then it will be Iran, but eventually it will have to be the actual producer nations, who will end the supply of all of the goods that are entering the welfare zones, so eventually it will be Asia and South America.
It's better for China to recognize what the danger is sooner than later and stop subsidizing the US and European war machine.
You can't handle the truth.
Obama's kowtowing to Republicans
I think you mis-spelt 'neo-cons', who are mostly ex-Trots.
Iran won't blockade the Straight of Hormuz.
I do not believe in karma. "Funny"=-6. Do good and forbid evil. Yours, Oft-Offtopic Flamebaiting Troll.
pray tell me. if you say 'they are a hardliner state', you will find israel MUCH more hardliner than any other country on the planet. just listen to what liebermann says (external affairs minister of israel). you'll be dumbfounded. just watch what gets publicly spoken in one of their leading party assemblies. youll be appalled.
the signs that israel has nuclear capability is always dodged by all international agencies and governments. yet, iran gets the heat for less.
or maybe it is because only countries that are either in angloamerican or russian alliances are entitled to have nuclear weapons ?
never mind. the question was rhetorical.
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Oil is a fungible commodity. Which particular buyer will be buying depends only on the cost of delivery. If Iran's oil is being sold to Europe, that just means that it's cheaper to deliver it to Europe than it is to deliver it to Asia. Delivering it to the buyers to whom it is more expensive to deliver will do nothing but increase the world-wide cost of oil by introducing a less-than-optimal delivery cost into the overall delivery mechanism.
Any guest worker system is indistinguishable from indentured servitude.
The only people this hurts is the middle class. Iranian will be bought no matter what. China and India have surging populations and crazy demands for fuel. EU's price of oil will rise since they are not buying it and will only hurt the working class in the long run.
It must be a really lazy day if /. editors decided to post this, strictly political news.
Hell of a problem to have, too much oil. Wonder what that would be like for their society, if Iran wasn't a draconian 2nd world country.
The powers that be want war against Iran.
This follows the usual pattern. Media hysteria over "the other." Claims that there are weapons or threats that don't exist. Governments in various alliances take steps both inside and outside public view to pressure "the other." The aggressor governments target the economy of "the other" in order to do one of two things, force them to capitulate, or force an outright war.
This is what happens in almost every case of unjust and unfounded war.
Iran is no nest of angels. The current government is pretty bad, but they aren't the threat they're painted as. Notice though, that they, like anybody else, get more threatening when threatened themselves. If you force a shooting war with these people, you're asking for trouble. These are not a few hundred country-less scumbags living in caves. They have an legitimate mandate of being a government, have more resources, and are much smarter.
Anybody that wants to talk about Iran and terrorism has to understand that from the Iranian viewpoint they're gotten nothing but shit from the west for decades. They had an elected official overthrown by US and British forces and had an oil "friendly" government installed in 1953. There was a coup in 1979 and since then they've had constant harsh rhetoric and various "actions" taken against them. For example, a strange invasion by a then US friendly dictator named Saddam Hussein. Hussein, with support from the US killed somewhere between 600,000 and 850,000 Iranians. Also consider 290 civilian deaths from the Iran Air Flight 655 in 1988, which was shot down by a guided missile from the USS Vincennes "by mistake." They've had various economic sanctions since 1979. And let's not forget that they're had numerous US special forces military and drone incursions since 2003. This is just the notable stuff, many other things have be done.
Again, the Iranian government are not angels and rainbows, but they have been threatened and messed with by outside governments for decades. If the situations where reversed, and it was the US that was under this pressure, would it not make sense to take actions to defend ourselves? No one in any position of power wants to accept this.
I think the sanctions will fail. Historically, in the 180-190 times they've been tried, they've only worked 30% of the time. 70% failure rate. Usually, it tends to make the people in said country rally around their leaders, against a common enemy. In some cases, it makes the government in question lash out and "fire the first shot." This is especially damning in peacetime if you don't win, because then, you look like the aggressor.
I expect war soon, both sides are getting too crazy and belligerent.
When I see the news today, I want to ask a lot of people, "How's that 'change' working out?"
The value to rial dropped with news of the US sanctions.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/03/iran-currency-dollar-idUSL6E8C30JN20120103
The exchange rate hovered at 17,200 rials to the dollar, marking a record low. The currency was trading at about 10,500 rials to the U.S. dollar last month.
The EU is going to ban Iranian oil, fine. They are also proposing to ban Canadian oil, ok. But if you start alienating countries that have large reserves of oil, where the hell do you think you are going to get your oil from in the future? If Iran stops is nuclear programs under these sanctions or Canada finds more efficient less polluting ways of extracting oil from tar sands, then why would they return to doing business with the EU? There are larger markets then the EU out there that are not so finicky.
Not a week goes by that I don't hear about another stupid decision made by the EU in one shape or another which limits consumer rights and under the EU "protection", most EU countries are entering bankruptcy.
So why do Europeans put up with it?
Do only people outside the EU understand it is a epic disaster?
I haven't thought of anything clever to put here, but then again most of you haven't either.
IT would be far better to help Iran. Help them build a nuclear program. When you word with someone, you gain an understanding of their culture. It's harder to hate someone you understand.
Peace through Atoms was successful. We never should have stopped.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
This is plain stupid because Iran will easily sell the oil to China&co in east Asia.
And this is not going to be a very clever decision by Europe.
Example:
Italy import a shitload of crude oil from Iran (15% of its needs) and we already have very high taxation on energy products (fuels&co). If Europe reduce its energy import options, the prices will go up.
Right now in Italy the prices are 1.7€/l for diesel and 1.75€/l for gasoline (that is, ~8$/gal). Electricity is strictly generated by oil and gas (no more than 20% from hydro and others alternative sources, no nuclear except imports, which drives up energy prices anyway).
Italy is in the middle of a huge austerity crunch (high taxation etc) and the last thing it need to fight the huge national debt (1900 billions €) and restart its agonizing economy is another impediment.
The Chinese are very happy to ear this because for them is an easy way to get access to more energy sources and obtain lower prices.
Europe should focus on internal failed states like Hungary.
You mean Sudan that has now been split off into two countries, the new one being south-sudan which is now more free then before from the north-muslim and Iran backed mass murderers?
Sorta like a not perfect but better then before result of the embargo?
Gosh, as an example of why embargo's don't work a embargo that gave millions a change to create their own country with a better future.... why not show how the storming of the Bastille did nothing to get rid of the corrupt king. How the US decleration of dependence did not result in indepedence?
Next time before spouting off, check what actually happened.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
Instead of helping Iran being more developed, better integrated with the rest of the world, so that a**holes like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will not get elected, we do what?
All this high rhetoric about Iran is such a non-sense. The EU and US simply do not want Iran to become a major international player because they are very well positioned to also become very important player.
On a slow week-end I have read through all the Wikipedia material on Iran and honestly the mention of what Iran needs (and it needs little) to become a superpower are all over the place. Embargoes would do little, only slow it down. Real change inside the Iran could happen when Iran becomes a superpower - but it seems our politicians are not in favor of it.
BTW, slow down of Iran's peaceful nuclear program will have an impact on us in oil/gas dependent countries. Oil and gas are major sources of energy in Iran, but efficiency of Iran's processing is very low. Nuclear program supposed to free up quite a lot of the gas and the oil and allow to increase export or simply save the resources instead of wasting them.
All hope abandon ye who enter here.
Maybe, just maybe, Iran is a signatory to the NPT, because...
wait for it...
Iran is not developing nuclear weapons.
Has the thought crossed your mind?
The governments of USA and Israel claim Iran is developing nukes. However, there is so far no concrete evidence of an Iranian nuclear program which aims at getting nuclear bombs.
Also, the NPT explicitly lets you develop peaceful nuclear technologies. If you don't want nukes, why not sign it?
That said, I can understand why Iran might want to get nukes (if I were them, I certainly would) - that's the only thing which will pacify the Middle East by putting more players on the same level. Just like Soviet Union and USA refrained from making war and destroying each other due to "mutually assured destruction", the same game-theoretic principles apply. Israel has nuclear weapons, Israel's backer USA has nuclear weapons, but no other nation in the Middle East has nuclear weapons of their own, so the situation is very one-sided. If you're a certain Middle Eastern nation rich in petrochemical/mineral resources, and you have a history of invasion/hijack attempts by certain other countries, you must get a big deterrent to ensure your independence and safety.
Iranian oil has been in decline for decades. What is important is the gas in the South Pars field under the Persian Gulf. Right now the Russians are providing most European natgas. Every time the Ukranians don't pay their bills, the Russians turn off the spigot, freezing the Poles and Germans and Czechs etc. Central Europe desperately needs to open up Iranian gas to European consumption unfettered by the vagaries of Iranian national politics in order to bring the Russians down a peg and reduce the price of natgas to Europe.
What they ultimately desire is a compliant puppet regime in Tehran to build a pipeline through Turkey into Greece to feed Central Europe. Of course, once the gas runs out in the next 20 or so years, this will leave Iran with a huge population of people without energy. The Iranian govt isn't stupid (crazy, yes, stupid, no) and they know that's coming down the pike, hence their need to get nuclear power off the ground as a bridging energy technology out of petroleum. Also, nuclear power gets them a few nuclear weapons, and the USA doesn't invade countries that have bona fide nukes. So, there are two compelling reasons for the Iranians to get nuclear power, both basically defensive.
The Russians have been trying to get into IRan in this regard, but their track record on nuclear power isn't great (viz Chernyobl). Personally, I think the USA should work with the Russians to provide Iran with nuclear power. Build some nuke plants for them to generate electricity, but have a joint USA / Russian fuel control system. This way, Iran survives into the 22nd century and the world doesn't have to worry about Iran nuking Baghdad or where-ever, the Russians get to sell some nuke plants, and the Americans get to prevent nuke weapons - everyone happy.
Everyone except the right wing douchenozzles in congress....
Shoes for Industry. Shoes for the Dead.
First off, many EU nations cheat at what they do. For example, it was shown that France and Germany imported massive amounts of Iraqi oil when all agreed to not do that. So, their saying that, really means about as much as China's agreement on FTAs, or China's seeking agreement on weapons in space: IOW, worthless. However, EU does not import that much of Iranian oil. It is Asia that would make a difference. In particular, South Korea, China and Japan. THink that any of them will change their habits?
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
Isn't crude a fungible commodity?
They are running away from nuclear power - even France seems to want to push it to the point it becomes uneconomical, and now this? Where do they plan to meet their energy needs from - have they collectively deluded themselves into believing that renewables can magically meet their needs? Or do they think that as third world countries their needs won't be much anyway?
And once they are done killing their nuclear programs and India and China keep pushing ahead with theirs, it will be incredibly expensive to start all over again.
Someone really must mod up parent.
Mexico: 100% conservative's America now!
Actually, we french people want to appear as the only ones able doing nuclear properly. When nuclear becomes the only option, where are you going to buy nuclear plants. Nuclear US enginers that knew how to build one have now all retired. Germans won't do nuclear anymore (they'll put wind turbines for the show and build coal plants where no one can see them). No one is crazy enough to buy nuclear russian plants (i tend to like russian engineering that emphasizes simplicity, their rockets are great, reliable and cheap but their nuclear plants are crap). Japanese just got hit with Fukushima. No one would trust chinese not to replace critical component with the cheapest crap available. Actually, in two decades, when nuclear become the only option, french will be the only ones with the necessary know how to build nuclear plants across the world.
'samson option' ?
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ignorance is bliss. really. or is it morondom. im so appalled that i dont know even what to say. have you ever seen what gets openly, publicly voiced in the israeli hardliner parties' assemblies ? like the current coalition partner, and the party of israel's exterior minister ? let me tell you - it falls nothing short of declaring that any non jew is a slave - no metaphor, no analogy - their party leaders openly, directly declare this.
no wonder why these people get little airtime so that the idiot masses in america, which need to be persuaded to support israel, remain oblivious about them.
Read radical news here
Those are the three countries to whom Iran sells most of its oil. China does not care what the USA or Europe says about banning exports, etc. India similarly ignores such talk.
Iran has opened up a special free trade zone on an island and is now operating the "International Oil Bourse."
The goal of the IOB is to allow for oil to be traded in currencies aside from the US dollar (all oil bought on the New York or London markets is in trade using USD.)
For reference, the IOB opened in 2008 but it was only in August 2011 when the first oil trade was made.
Just prior to Iraq being invaded by the USA, Iraq was trading oil in Euro. That practice was one of the first things that was put to an end when the USA invaded Iraq.
This move by the Iranians seriously threatens the status of the USD as the being the exclusive "world reserve currency."
That's what they are doing. And, as a side note, put an end to the lie that commerce brings peace.
Mexico: 100% conservative's America now!
It's amusing how some people still think we went into Iraq because S. Hussein was an evil dictator, or that we helped get rid of M. Khadafi for the same reason. The popular media seem resistant to portray these things for what they are: taking control of Third World petroleum industries. Iran is the last redoubt in the middle east not yet in bed with or controlled by international petroleum mobsters. Venezuela is the last in the western hemisphere, and it is no coincidence at all that H. Chavez is demonized as an evil dictator as well. It is an industrial pattern every bit as stereotyped as any software design pattern, and it works just as well.
Yes, we are headed for another decade of perpetual war for perpetual peace in order that the mobsters who rule the First World can take control of small nations' wealth and resources. For the rubes, it's all about saving the world from Iran's evil dictators having a few nukes. Suckers.
... countries in Asia to replace its lost trade, who will demand a discount
They can replace lost revenue by selling other goods. eg. Disney movies, Microsoft CDs, stuxnet viri, botnet domains, handguns, short-range missiles, non-nuclear enriched uranium (Hey, the Iranians don't keep it and they make money). In short, a trade war/insurgency against the USA.
I have heard of Iran wanting nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Are they referring to power generation? If they are up to their ass in oil, whatever would they need expensive nuclear power for?
I don't know about Korean or Vietnam wars, but the rest of those claims are BS I think.
1) The US has likely sold/given as many or more weapons to those countries as China. Russia as well.
2) Like Libya, these countries have huge stockpiles of conventional weapons. Some in the hands of tribal, warlords, or simple circulation. Even larger amounts are concentrated by central government, which when it falls like in Libya and Afghanistan, all those weapons go into circulation. This has just recently become an issue for Libya, who is not used to having quite so many arms in the hands of private citizens. These stockpiles have been growing for decades.
3) As for Pakistan, this is less China involvement, and more of an area that is barely run by government. In the north, it is really Pakistan in name only, and is run tribally (or so I have heard). The government itself, is more less run by the military. There are factions within both that aren't exactly pro-USA. They seem to be a pretty loosely run country which is nuts because they have nuclear weapons. Fortunately the army seems pretty solid and stable, at least insofar as its influence extends. They also have limited delivery capability, which probably suits them, as they only seem to in deathly fear that India will swallow them whole. It seems much of the official foreign relations revolves around this. So when the US does something that supports or doesn't support those aims, well it acts accordingly. Many reports indicate many people in the Pakistan Intelligence were not exactly pro-USA. The fact that the US was/is giving BILLIONS in aid to Pakistan, and likely a fair chunk of that would go to buying weapons and support for fight the US is how insane the whole situation is. I recall a US politician actually saying so on the record on TV, but saying that due to other strategic issues, there is no way they can stop sending that aid, as the consequences would be much worse.
So anyway I don't see China being the boogy man in at least those examples, in modern times. Sure they may have sold some weapons, but I don't think it is any ulterior motive, other than to sell weapons, just like the US and Russia.
If anything proved that point, is was France (!?) leading the freedom charge into Libya to help the poor people under the evil boot heal of a vicious dictator.
It probably doesn't help that that is where France is the main importer of oil either. Amazing how fast those planes got there.
Seriously when was the last time that France led the charge in anything but the wrong direction? :)