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NASA Scientist: Heat Waves Really Are From Global Warming

mdsolar writes with a tidbit from the New York Times on global warming: "The percentage of the earth's land surface covered by extreme heat in the summer has soared in recent decades, from less than 1 percent in the years before 1980 to as much as 13 percent in recent years, according to a new scientific paper. The change is so drastic, the paper says, that scientists can claim with near certainty that events like the Texas heat wave last year, the Russian heat wave of 2010 and the European heat wave of 2003 would not have happened without the planetary warming caused by the human release of greenhouse gases. Those claims, which go beyond the established scientific consensus about the role of climate change in causing weather extremes, were advanced by James E. Hansen, a prominent NASA climate scientist, and two co-authors in a scientific paper published online on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 'The main thing is just to look at the statistics and see that the change is too large to be natural,' Dr. Hansen said in an interview."

415 of 605 comments (clear)

  1. Hansen again? by bradley13 · · Score: 1, Flamebait

    Hansen is a "scientist" who likes headlines and attention. Nothing to see here, move along...

    --
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    1. Re:Hansen again? by Rei · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Because, as always, peer-reviewed work is to be scoffed at while wild un-peer-reviewed claims by TV weathermen are to be taken at face value.

      --
      Sometimes I doubt your commitment to Sparkle Motion.
    2. Re:Hansen again? by DeathToBill · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Calm down and stop throwing toys, both of you.

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    3. Re:Hansen again? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      Hansen is a "scientist" who likes headlines and attention. Nothing to see here, move along...

      You tell'em bradley13!

      Rush, Hannity and Boortz say (*say with sarcastic snear*) glooooooobal waaaarming is just a method to justify Big Government and Control by Liberals who TRUST that government is the only solution! And it's a method for the control and loss of sovereignty to the UN!

      Hear ya! Brother!

      Government control is EVIL and UnAmerican!

      Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go to a meeting where we're going discuss methods of getting government to ban gay marriage, abortion, and to start teaching abstinence and the Bible in school!

      Damn government control!

    4. Re:Hansen again? by Rei · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Wow, combining "un-peer-reviewed claims by TV weathermen" with "wikipedia" with "proof by ghost reference" (worst heat wave != most days over 37.8C in a place which already has an average January high of over 41C), whose closest resemblance to saying what he claims it says is a reference to a non-peer-reviewed web page from before the heat waves in question discussed by this paper.

      Wow, I'm totally sold now, thanks for linking that!

      --
      Sometimes I doubt your commitment to Sparkle Motion.
    5. Re:Hansen again? by SJHillman · · Score: 5, Funny

      In addition to being cooler than the 1920's, we're also hipper, awesomer and dress much better.

    6. Re:Hansen again? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Oh oh.... so _one_ heatwave during a sunspot-cycle (which is known for abnormal solar activity, massive coronal injections and solar flares... when I say "abnormal" is just that, there's an above normal number of solar flares and coronal injections due to the magnetic activity that originates both phenomena) between 1923-1933 (did I mentioned only ONE heatwave?!), compared to several heatwaves for the past 15 years makes it ok... Hold on, I need to review the definition of "exception" and "abnormal conditions" to be able to reply to your bull argument. Oh, wait, not, I just did... you review your concept of "exception" and "abnormal conditions" and then research a bit about sun activity, sunspot-cycle (and the magnetic activity that generates said sunspots and that also amplifies the occurrence of solar flares and coronal injections), and so on. Cheers.

    7. Re:Hansen again? by Rei · · Score: 5, Informative

      Apparently in your (and his) worlds:
        * Global warming predicts that every location on Earth will increase in temperature at roughly the same rate and roughly the same time
        * A region cannot have statistically anomalous warmth driven by an external forcing unless *every* region on earth has statistically anomalous warmth driven by an external forcing.
        * Marble Bar, Australia = Earth
        * Heat wave = high temperatures in absolute numbers, instead of the standard definition, relative to an area's baseline average.

      --
      Sometimes I doubt your commitment to Sparkle Motion.
    8. Re:Hansen again? by tbannist · · Score: 2, Informative

      I don't get it. What does a heat wave (consecutive days over 100F) in the 1920s in one corner of Australia, that lasted 160 days in an area that normally gets 154 days over 100F each year, have to do with it?

      The basic claim Hansen made is that these recent heat waves are so far out of the ordinary that it would be virtually impossible* for them to have occurred without global warming. I'm not sure how "there was a heatwave in the 1920s in Australia" proves the claim is false.

      * Less than 0.1% probability

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      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    9. Re:Hansen again? by serviscope_minor · · Score: 3, Funny

      Calm down and stop throwing toys, both of you.

      One of my favourite things about slashdot is the good, solid, thoughtful and well reasoned arguments in the comments.

      --
      SJW n. One who posts facts.
    10. Re:Hansen again? by Razgorov+Prikazka · · Score: 1, Insightful

      In addition to this parental and, yes, proper advice: Go read some books in stead of throwing toys.
      There are good arguments for and against manmade global warming, and personally I think there is no such thing as MMGW.
      Thing is; there is no way of telling just yet. It is just a way of predicting the future, and there is no such business. The models are only as good as the information (=pre-assumptions) one puts in there, and then there is a huge lag of possible parameters in all those models.

      One thing one could say is: There was no global warming in the last 10 years.
        - But maybe that was just a temporary 'plateau', and it will continue to rise even further;
        - But maybe this is a 'top pattern' and things will cool down now;
        - But maybe the data was corrupted;
        - But maybe the models of tomorrow are much more accurate
      In short; it is a bit to much:"*staring at handpalm, gipsy-accent* There will be a dark lady in your life! And great fortune as well!". We will know what the weather will be in 20 years after 20 years have gone by. The rest of all the people who (think they) can predict the future: GO BUY LOTTO TICKETS YOU IDIOT!!!

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    11. Re:Hansen again? by Rei · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The rest of all the people who (think they) can predict the future: GO BUY LOTTO TICKETS YOU IDIOT!!!"

      I bet you that it will get dark tonight, and then brighten up again tomorrow. Care to take my bet, or want to modify your broad-based claim?

      --
      Sometimes I doubt your commitment to Sparkle Motion.
    12. Re:Hansen again? by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 2

      The summary is great though. "It's so drastic it HAS to be a man-made event! It's proof! Something that BIG wouldn't just HAPPEN, and this is the obvious cause!"

    13. Re:Hansen again? by next_ghost · · Score: 1

      What does a heat wave (consecutive days over 100F)

      Since when does "many consecutive days over 100F" qualify as a valid definition of "heat wave"? There are places on this planet where 100F means "fucking cold" during summer. According to the article about Marble Bar "heat wave", Marble Bar is one of them.

    14. Re:Hansen again? by mSparks43 · · Score: 1

      He's saying the heatwaves are "out of the ordinary".
      Clearly they are not.
      And Clearly they have nothing to do with CO2 and everything to do with solar activity.

    15. Re:Hansen again? by mcvos · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Do you realize that the underlying theory, the greenhouse effect, goes back 100 years? Global warming is not a new idea. 50 years ago there were people predicting that extra CO2 would cause temperature to rise. In the last 2 decades, we've seen the start of that, and it fits the theory quite well. Of course the earth is an incredibly complex thing, and there are millions of factors that also have some impact, but the foundation is pretty solid.

      Considering that we know that CO2 traps heat, and we know that CO2 levels have gone up, and we know that global temperature has gone up, you need to come up with a really solid alternative explanation if you want to flat out deny a causal relationship between these facts.

    16. Re:Hansen again? by darkharlequin · · Score: 2

      Have you ever produced peer reviewed work? The massive amount of politics that goes into getting published turned me away from a career in academics. It literally has more to do with who you know and how your paper fits into their world view than the merits of your paper.

      --
      i am so very tired....
    17. Re:Hansen again? by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 1, Insightful

      It's better than that. Take this chart for example (This chart has been photoshopped! Simpsons did it!). This chart shows that we're coming out of a global cold period and haven't yet broken the global hot averages. Mind you the chart is inaccurate: back before the past 100 or so years, we only have 30 year averages. That means the ridiculously hot "medieval warm period" shows data points for averages over 30 years: we can at least take on faith that some years were that hot; more likely some years were hotter, perhaps drastically hotter (unlikely given the period of stability; I would say mildly hotter).

      The basic claim Hansen made is that we're facing almost certain man-made global warming, and coming out of an ice age has nothing to do with it. That temperatures have been rising since 1700 and that it's been hotter before don't seem to have occurred to him.

      It's a hilariously distant leap of logic. Real scientists will try to correlate power output, fuel burned, soot and CO2 and methane and water vapor in the atmosphere, etc with their heat-trapping and heat-reflecting effects, and show a model that then predicts weather pattern changes based on these things. If that model holds, global warming due to such factors; if it doesn't, then global warming is possibly real (look, it's getting hotter) but the idea of it being caused by human meddling with the atmospheric composition is a myth. That's how science works: we see these things, hypothesize these effects, then point at the changes and say this is what will happen... it happens, we're right; if not, we try again.

      That in mind, global warming science is a lot of double-think bullshit. The scientists can't get the model to work quite right, and keep changing it. We're learning new things all the time, and refining our understanding of all this stuff... but while we don't understand it and are continuously wrong in our predictions, we swear that we see proof about some fuzzy concept in front of us. That's not science, it's religion. Cult of global warming.

    18. Re:Hansen again? by mSparks43 · · Score: 2, Funny

      Just to be clear, when you say:

      100F means "fucking cold" during summer.

      Are you trying to imply global warming is nothing to worry about?

    19. Re:Hansen again? by next_ghost · · Score: 4, Interesting

      It's a hilariously distant leap of logic. Real scientists will try to correlate power output, fuel burned, soot and CO2 and methane and water vapor in the atmosphere, etc with their heat-trapping and heat-reflecting effects, and show a model that then predicts weather pattern changes based on these things. If that model holds, global warming due to such factors; if it doesn't, then global warming is possibly real (look, it's getting hotter) but the idea of it being caused by human meddling with the atmospheric composition is a myth. That's how science works: we see these things, hypothesize these effects, then point at the changes and say this is what will happen... it happens, we're right; if not, we try again.

      That in mind, global warming science is a lot of double-think bullshit. The scientists can't get the model to work quite right, and keep changing it. We're learning new things all the time, and refining our understanding of all this stuff... but while we don't understand it and are continuously wrong in our predictions, we swear that we see proof about some fuzzy concept in front of us. That's not science, it's religion. Cult of global warming.

      Interesting. How do you explain stratospheric cooling which has been directly observed in the past few decades then? Note that stratospheric cooling is inconsistent with any natural cause of global warming.

    20. Re:Hansen again? by shentino · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Or maybe because global warming is an uncomfortable truth that the powers that be deliberately bury in the name of corporate profits.

    21. Re:Hansen again? by smg5266 · · Score: 1, Insightful

      I sort of agree with this. I think that the generalized idea of extra C02 is very hard to argue against. It seems pretty basic so I'm not surprised that the vast majority accepts global warming to be at least partially man made. I'm still somewhat skeptical of climate models though. As you'll often hear in computational science, shit in = shit out. CFD and other techniques used to make these predictions are still somewhat immature (although advancing pretty quickly). So as of right now when I hear very specific claims such as "this weather pattern was absolutely caused by global warming", I'm definitely going to be suspicious.

    22. Re:Hansen again? by shentino · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Some things are easier to predict than others.

      And in the minds of some religious fanatics, not even the ground you walk on is a safe bet.

    23. Re:Hansen again? by next_ghost · · Score: 1

      Are you trying to imply global warming is nothing to worry about?

      No.

    24. Re:Hansen again? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      What's so terrible about wanting to ban abortion? It's such a barbaric and grisly practice.

    25. Re:Hansen again? by dbIII · · Score: 1

      Marble Bar just about has a permanent heat wave.

    26. Re:Hansen again? by mSparks43 · · Score: 1

      I'm pretty sure saying 100F is "fucking cold" means you think the 80F seen in Russia must be "really fucking cold".

    27. Re:Hansen again? by jodido · · Score: 2, Insightful

      If you don't like it don't have one. Otherwise none of your business.

    28. Re:Hansen again? by next_ghost · · Score: 1

      You're not getting the point.

    29. Re:Hansen again? by Worthless_Comments · · Score: 2

      And yesterday you knew humans were alone on this planet. Imagine what you'll know tomorrow.

    30. Re:Hansen again? by mcvos · · Score: 1

      I've never had the impression I was alone on the planet. There are too many counter examples everywhere.

    31. Re:Hansen again? by tbannist · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Take this chart [forgottenliberty.com] for example

      That chart looks like it's been mislabelled or doctored, depending on how charitable you want to be to Spencer. Here's a video explaining the provenance of several such errors.

      Real scientists will try to correlate power output, fuel burned, soot and CO2 and methane and water vapor in the atmosphere, etc with their heat-trapping and heat-reflecting effects, and show a model that then predicts weather pattern changes based on these things.

      There are a lot of "real scientists" doing exactly that, Hansen is taking a different approach to tackle the "is this global warming or nature" question. It's still science, even if you disagree with the results.

      That in mind, global warming science is a lot of double-think bullshit. The scientists can't get the model to work quite right, and keep changing it. We're learning new things all the time, and refining our understanding of all this stuff... but while we don't understand it and are continuously wrong in our predictions, we swear that we see proof about some fuzzy concept in front of us. That's not science, it's religion. Cult of global warming.

      From that paragraph, it's clear you don't either understand science and/or don't understand religion. It seems to me, that "learning new things all the time and refining our understanding of this stuff" is clearly science and clearly not religion.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    32. Re:Hansen again? by SlippyToad · · Score: 2, Insightful

      There are good arguments for and against manmade global warming, and personally I think there is no such thing as MMGW.

      Really? Let's see your data, genius.

      One thing one could say is: There was no global warming in the last 10 years.

      If you're a complete moron, that is.

      --
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    33. Re:Hansen again? by mcvos · · Score: 2

      Oh absolutely. Predicting local weather is unbelievably hard, and distinguishing exact causes of individual instances of weather is practically impossible. This reminds me of a situation with a nuclear power plant that had a higher number of cancer deaths in its vicinity. Those deaths happen normally too, just not quite as much. So there was no individual case where you could state that it was caused by the presence of the nuclear power plan, but it was very likely that the plant had to be the cause of some of them.

      As for climate models, actual real climate is influenced by millions of factors. The greenhouse effect is definitely an important factor, but not remotely the only one. Predicting that average global temperatures go up is easy. Predicting that that will melt ice caps isn't that hard either. But predicting where it will cause more (or less!) tornados, rain or draught, is practically impossible.

      I'm not sure what the current state of the art is, but I'm sure more work is needed.

    34. Re:Hansen again? by mSparks43 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Indeed, you obviously aren't making it very well.

    35. Re:Hansen again? by dkleinsc · · Score: 2

      You mean like how the government use to print bibles to be used in teaching in schools but due to hyper-political correctness stopped?

      You must be reading or listening to David Barton, because he's the one that recently popularized that completely bogus claim:
      No, Mr. Beck, Congress Did Not Print a Bible for the Use of Schools
      Chris Rodda is an actual historian with real credentials who's repeatedly demonstrated that Barton is at best wildly misinterpreting evidence, and at worst is a fraud (No, I'm not someone who believes everything on HuffPo, in this case it's right).

      The lack of Bibles in school is a clear part of the First Amendment: You don't make everyone else's kids read the Bible, we don't make your kids read the Koran or Rig Vedas. If you want your kids to learn the Bible, teach it to them at home or in church, but a public school cannot support particular religious texts.

      --
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    36. Re:Hansen again? by asylumx · · Score: 1

      Removing teeth with pliers is barbaric and grisly, too. We should ban that. Oooh how about using saws to cut peoples bones apart while they're still alive! "Surgery" my ass!

    37. Re:Hansen again? by Joce640k · · Score: 4, Funny

      There are good arguments for and against manmade global warming, and personally I think there is no such thing as MMGW.

      Remind us again what the 'good' arguments against it are...?

      --
      No sig today...
    38. Re:Hansen again? by jkflying · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Once we have a perfectly reliable, free and easy form of contraception, and rape doesn't happen, then, maybe, I'll agree with you, but only in cases where there aren't medical complications.

      And what's worse: having an abortion or having a child which grows up in poverty and is neglected, abused and has more kids who won't be taken care of?

      --
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    39. Re:Hansen again? by gtbritishskull · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There is nothing wrong with banning abortion, as long as you don't take away a woman's liberty in the process. I would be fine with banning abortions if the anti-abortion coalition (Republican party, churches, or whomever - just not the government because we can't afford it) would set up "non-abortion clinics" that would induce labor instead of performing an abortion. That way a woman could keep her liberty (old white men would not be forcing her to carry a child to term that she does not want). Of course, the anti-abortion coalition would be financially responsible for ensuring that the children they deliver are taken care of until they become self-sufficient adults. And, if they have any health problems due to being born early then the anti-abortion coalition would be responsible for their healthcare (we shouldn't socialize those costs into Obamacare).

      Though, Republicans would never agree to this because it is contrary to their values. The main two are "socialize risks and privatize rewards" and "every life is precious until it is born, then it is a leech on society and we should let it die".

      Democrats also want to get rid of abortions. But, they don't want to ban them. They want to make them unnecessary by making it possible to only get pregnant if you want to. Republicans, on the other hand, love unwanted pregnancies. And STDs. They are God's punishments for having sex. That is why they hate both birth control and abortions. You are circumventing God's will that you be punished with a child. If you don't believe me, look up the controversy over the HPV vaccine. They don't want to prevent cancer in girls because that is one of the ways that girls are punished for having sex. If there is not the risk of cancer, then more girls might have sex, so we can't give them the vaccine.

      Same as why they are in favor of allowing abortions in the case of rape. They don't want to punish that woman with a child because she didn't do anything to deserve to be punished. If they truly believed that the child is a life, then they would not want to kill the child for the sins of its father.

      I personally believe that all children are a gift, and that if you are using them as a punishment then you are doing it wrong.

    40. Re:Hansen again? by cusco · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The scientists can't get the model to work quite right, and keep changing it.

      So you look at a computation so complex that it takes multiple CPU-centuries to calculate wasn't 100% accurate the first time and the inputs weren't 100% complete at the very beginning, and you're surprised that it didn't create a 100% accurate solution on its first run? Don't you think that your expectations were just a tad high?

      **OF COURSE** they keep changing it. They keep finding new ways to add additional data streams, better algorithms, new sources of data, additional variables to account for, etc. I'd start to wonder if they DIDN'T change it (them actually, there are various models in use). This is Science, not Scientology.

      --
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    41. Re:Hansen again? by TapeCutter · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Just a nit-pick. The physics goes back to Fourier who predicted CO2 would be a GHG in 1824 (while inventing spectroscopy), someone else confirmed it by experiment in the 1850's (forget the name, he used glass jars, sunlight, and thermometers). A Swedish guy who's name I can't spell came up with AGW ~1900, nobody really believed him until the 1950's when hi-res spectroscopes made it possible to separate CO2 and H20 spectra. In 1958 the National Academies claimed they had detected AGW, their basic claim has not changed, their confidence has grown with the evidence collected over the last half century.

      --
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    42. Re:Hansen again? by Lockejaw · · Score: 4, Informative

      and then research a bit about sun activity, sunspot-cycle

      Now show that this warming trend is really just the upward half of a fluctuation that's been repeating every eleven years.

      Oh, you didn't know the sunspot cycle was only eleven years long? Maybe you should have researched a bit about sun activity.

      --
      (IANAL)
    43. Re:Hansen again? by sycodon · · Score: 1

      SlippyToad, always bringing the discussion back to civility and calmness.

      --
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    44. Re:Hansen again? by TapeCutter · · Score: 1

      A heat wave is relative to average temperatures in the region. There was a heatwave in Greenland recently but the beach was still empty.

      --
      And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
    45. Re:Hansen again? by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 2

      The basic premise of science is you say, "When I put a cheese here, the mouse runs out from there to come get it." When the mouse doesn't run from there, but instead digs through the ground to get the cheese, you're supposed to go, "Oh, the mouse seems to be a burrowing land critter. And it likes cheese."

      Now here's the tough part: The mouse burrows, but doesn't eat the cheese. It eats grubs. You thus proscribe that, interestingly the mouse is apparently a burrowing land critter that likes grubs (I suspect you've mistaken a mole or gnoll for a mouse...). So you set out the cheese again, and the mouse comes out to inspect it, but sees a small lizard and eats that instead of the cheese... apparently the mouse likes lizards too. You improve your model, writing down that the mouse likes grubs and lizards. You remove these and put out the cheese again, but the mouse is distracted by a grasshopper.

      If you continue to insist that the mouse likes grubs, lizards, grasshoppers, AND CHEESE, you aren't doing science. You keep adjusting your model as you learn new things; but your model has yet to show that the mouse will even eat cheese, or has a preference toward it. Even if you starve the damn mouse and give it cheese with nothing else around, you might just show that the mice can eat cheese and will register it as food; if you then assert that mice find cheese palatable or otherwise hold a preference to it, you are making shit up.

      That's the problem here. Scientists design a climate model, and then find out that they don't understand the damn thing and it doesn't work out the way they predicted. They then improve the model. Across all these improvements, they start making baseless claims that they've yet to actually show a valid experimental model for, because their model never works. Politicians and journalists would have us believe that scientists know that when we increase the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere by 150ppm, we'll see a rise of 0.6 degrees Celsius global average temperature; THAT WON'T HAPPEN, but they'll point at the increase in both and the changes in the weather (including drought, increases and decreases in different places, etc) and claim it's related and that one is caused by the other.

      The reality is random shit is happening, and we haven't figured out how to fit a model to it to show that it's really not random. We're pretty sure it's not, we just don't have an explanation yet.

    46. Re:Hansen again? by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 2

      Reduction of volume of ozone layer gasses is linked strongly to stratospheric cooling as a cause. That said, the only decent explanation for that is CFC crap in the air, rather than a natural cycle.

    47. Re:Hansen again? by evil_aaronm · · Score: 1

      Your last point should factor in equally with your other qualifications: if a woman realizes that she will be an unfit mother, and simply doesn't want to carry the child, why shouldn't that be reason enough? Then there are mothers who can't lay off cigs, booze, drugs, etc, even while pregnant. If such a mother decided she didn't want to run the risk of an ADD baby, she ought to have that choice.

    48. Re:Hansen again? by SteveFoerster · · Score: 1

      He was taking the moral high ground as an individual, not "as a nation", whatever that's supposed to mean.

      --
      Space game using normal deck of cards: http://BattleCards.org
    49. Re:Hansen again? by Razgorov+Prikazka · · Score: 1, Informative

      That is not how science works. Please go and read some books by Sir Karl Raimund Popper, and specifically about the intricate workings of the "scientific method". I think you will find it highly enlightening.

      --
      rm -rf --no-preserve-root / ...and let /dev/null sort them out...
    50. Re:Hansen again? by tbannist · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There are good arguments for and against manmade global warming, and personally I think there is no such thing as MMGW.

      I wish that were true, but there aren't any good arguments against manmade global warming. That was what actually convinced me it was real.

      There was no global warming in the last 10 years.

      This is a common error, frequently made be people who don't understand mathematics and graphs. As long as there is random noise in data, there will always be "plateaus" where things look stable but the underlining trend continues. In the case of global warming, if you try you can actually find a series of continuous downward slopes so that any year of the temperature record can appear to be part of a declining trend, while actual temperatures rise consistently. This is sometimes called going down the up escalator. I think it's a type of confirmation bias, where people only look for the trends that confirm their pre-existing views. The particular reasons temperatures look stable over the past decade are known (Weak El Ninos, increased sulfur emissions from China, below average solar activity and above average volcanic activity) and known to be short-term effects. Furthermore, satellites can measure the energy surplus the planet is accumulating. We know from those satellites that more solar energy is entering than is leaving, and that it hasn't changed.

      It's unfortunate that this isn't actually isn't any room for debate, but the amount of evidence supporting Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) means that only laymen who refuse to accept the consequences of AGW continue to dispute the issue. You may recall even the CEO of Exxon says AGW is real and he has billions of reason to deny it is happening. The actual scientists have a remarkably high level of confidence (97% of researchers in the field agree with 2% undecided) that AGW has been occurring for decades. I wish it was not happening but wishing doesn't make it true. There are, of course, uncertainties in what exactly will happen in the future, but some things are predictable, especially in broad strokes. We know leaving a pot of water on a hot burner will eventually cause it to boil, even if we can't predict the exact second that it will boil over.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    51. Re:Hansen again? by SteveFoerster · · Score: 1

      Democrats also want to get rid of abortions.

      I believe you, at least for most of them, but you have to admit they don't do a very good job coming across that way. Perhaps that's a side effect of a political culture where it's better to piss off the other side than to rationally explain your side?

      --
      Space game using normal deck of cards: http://BattleCards.org
    52. Re:Hansen again? by tbannist · · Score: 1

      That's the definition from the referenced (WUWT) blog post, and I agree with you: it's a pretty lame metric for a heat wave in an area that regularly gets temperatures well over that level.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    53. Re:Hansen again? by riverat1 · · Score: 4, Informative

      The guy in the 1850's was John Tyndall who quantified the absorption of IR by CO2 and the Swedish guy was Svante Arrhenius in 1896.

    54. Re:Hansen again? by wisnoskij · · Score: 2

      I never really got why anyone cared if it was Man Made or not. If Asteroid was careening towards the earth, would anyone really care when, where, or how it was formed (above and beyond the need to learn its geology).

      --
      Troll is not a replacement for I disagree.
    55. Re:Hansen again? by mbone · · Score: 2

      I have, and that was not my experience.

    56. Re:Hansen again? by VortexCortex · · Score: 1

      In addition to this parental and, yes, proper advice: Go read some books in stead of throwing toys. There are good arguments for and against manmade global warming, and personally I think there is no such thing as MMGW. Thing is; there is no way of telling just yet. It is just a way of predicting the future, and there is no such business.

      There is this thing called Science, and it has a Method. There is a way to test the hypothesis: "Warming trends in climate change are mad made". You simply apply the scientific method. We change what we're doing, and try to reduce our impact as much as possible. Then we observe what happens. Considering we only have one Planet to use, I think it would be irrational NOT to do the experiment.

      Life has changed the climate of this planet before -- It's why you can breathe oxygen, so there is precedent for thinking life forms can cause massive planet-scale changes. Additionally: Climate change caused Mammoths and a lot of other species to die out. Rapid Climate change killed the Dinosaurs and much of the life on the planet as well.

      No one can know 100% for sure EITHER WAY (man made warming or otherwise). What we can say is that there is a Chance that we're going to burn ourselves out of a place to live.

      TL;DR: Stop whining you selfish fool, the CHANCE that it could be us causing rapid climate chance means we need to take action. You just don't want to make any sacrifice at all even if it could save us all from extinction.

    57. Re:Hansen again? by BinarySolo · · Score: 2

      Because if global warming was man-made, then presumably it is possible to be man-unmade.

    58. Re:Hansen again? by sexconker · · Score: 2

      - Look how fucking cold it is in July (in the Northern hemisphere)! Global warming my ass!
        - LOL you stupid denier you don't even know that weather != climate lololololololol go back to faux news and pray away the gay before you suck on my liberal, enlightened cock!

      - Look how fucking hot it is in July (in the Northern hemisphere)! It's more proof of global warming!
      - Wait, I thought weather != climate. Are you just picking and choo
      - LOL you stupid denier you don't even know that the latest liberal IndoctriCast clearly shows a scientific consensus that you're uneducated and I should feel superior to you lololololol!

    59. Re:Hansen again? by jellomizer · · Score: 1

      LA LA LA!!! I am not Listening. My actions do not have greater consequences. This is just words of a person who hate automobiles!!!!

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    60. Re:Hansen again? by DavidTC · · Score: 3, Insightful

      So as of right now when I hear very specific claims such as "this weather pattern was absolutely caused by global warming", I'm definitely going to be suspicious.

      I think the claim here is more 'statistically, this weather is almost impossible to have happened without being caused by the warming'

      I think that's a reasonable claim. It's sorta 'As a doctor, pinpointing the exact cause of long term health problems is difficult, but statistically, your ten heart attacks last year are likely to be due to you eating a pound of bacon every day'.

      Yes, any specific amount of heat might be due to anything. Pockets of extreme heat does happen randomly, for no reason we can determine.

      But this much? This fast? This long? The odds of that happening without something causing it as very low. Something has clearly changed. And the obvious change is, well, obvious.

      And exactly what predicted.For several years I, at least, have been hearing 'The problem with global warming isn't just gradually increasing the temp and sea level. The problem is wild swings in weather.' Well...here's one of them. (And boy will hurricane season this year be fun. Hurricanes are due to the amount of warm water on the surface and cool water below, and guess what long-term heat waves do. So, yeah, lots of fun coming up.)

      Now, there could be some other cause out there, something else that happened that cuases heat waves. But as global warming deniers have been looking for quite some time for another explanation of the _gradual_ warming we've had, and constantly failed to find it, it seems unlikely that there's some other explanation of this heat wave that's been overlooked.

      --
      If corporations are people, aren't stockholders guilty of slavery?
    61. Re:Hansen again? by asylumx · · Score: 1

      Murder can be done in non-barbaric and non-grisly ways, as well. The GGP said we should ban abortion because it's barbaric and grisly, so I assume they mean we should ban anything that's barbaric and grisly.

      In fact, the current methods of abortion are far less barbaric and grisly than the methods of abortion used when it was illegal.

    62. Re:Hansen again? by wisnoskij · · Score: 1

      I am pretty sure Man is routinely able to do things other than unmake man made things. If anything, being non man made should make it easier to change, because it is a whole lot easier to change an environment than to remodel society.

      --
      Troll is not a replacement for I disagree.
    63. Re:Hansen again? by Shotgun · · Score: 1

      The basic claim Hansen made is that these recent heat waves are so far out of the ordinary that it would be virtually impossible* for them to have occurred without global warming.

      And the world is so complex, defying the laws of entropy, that it is virtually* impossible that it isn't created and controlled by a supreme intelligence.

      *Less than 0.01% probability

      --
      Aah, change is good. -- Rafiki
      Yeah, but it ain't easy. -- Simba
    64. Re:Hansen again? by AnonyMouseCowWard · · Score: 1

      Banning abortion IS taking away a woman's liberty. Or do you not consider having something grow within you for 8 months and suffering the physiological and mental consequences not important?

    65. Re:Hansen again? by Shotgun · · Score: 1

      Yes, it is an uncomfortable truth that no one has heard of. There isn't even any politicians using it to make power grabs with new regulatory and tax regimes.

      --
      Aah, change is good. -- Rafiki
      Yeah, but it ain't easy. -- Simba
    66. Re:Hansen again? by jovius · · Score: 1

      GO BUY LOTTO TICKETS YOU IDIOT!!!

      If the grand jackpot is a full scientific and non-scientific consensus for AGW then the odds are getting better, not worse. It's increasingly possible to win with AGW.

    67. Re:Hansen again? by DeadCatX2 · · Score: 1

      Regarding GP's common error that is probably the result of cherry picking start and end points for a trendline, I have often wondered if there wouldn't be some way to "average it out".

      What if we put 1950-2012 on the top and left side of a grid, and then each entry in the grid was the trendline with endpoints determined by the column and row? And then finally average all trendlines that had a span greater than 10 years? Could this help show that 1998 was an outlier?

      --
      :(){ :|:& };:
    68. Re:Hansen again? by darkharlequin · · Score: 1

      Good for you :)

      --
      i am so very tired....
    69. Re:Hansen again? by Jeremy+Erwin · · Score: 1

      More specifically
      Arrhenius
        "On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air Upon the Temperature of the Ground", Philosophical Magazine 1896(41): 237-76
      Tyndall
      "Contributions to Molecular Physics in the Domain of Radiant Heat." 1872

    70. Re:Hansen again? by CAIMLAS · · Score: 1

      Well, we're talking about global warming here, remember.

      Compared to the reasoning and methodologies found in most of these 'studies', you could probably prove an increase in alien abductions with higher likely certainty.

      --
      ~/ssh slashdot.org ssh: connect to host slashdot.org port 22: too many beers
    71. Re:Hansen again? by ShooterNeo · · Score: 2

      Yes. Our Lord the FSM might at any moment extend his noodly appendage and delete the very ground upon which you walk. At which point you would fall, unless by the grace of Our Lord he chooses to hold you in the air using his appendages.

    72. Re:Hansen again? by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 1

      It's more of an issue that what's happening is completely unpredictable and follows no model. It could be, for instance, that CO2 emissions account for 1% of the fluctuation, while 99% of the fluctuation comes from (for example) the long-term decay of a particular waste product used in the production of a lubricant in wind turbines. While we're all looking at the scary white sheet with holes cut in the eyes, the white elephant in the room starts crushing people.

      Take the poster who proposed that global warming must be man-made because it would cause the cooling of the stratosphere, and thus we must be choking the planet with CO2 since the stratosphere is cooling. He missed that the stratosphere would also cool due to thinning of the ozone layer, which was caused mainly by CFCs from aerosol cans. His model wasn't well-constructed (or evaluated, even); our scientists have poorly constructed (but well-evaluated) models they keep changing, and insist on something they can't model down All this unpredictability suggests other things are happening that we don't understand.

      If other things are happening, shouldn't we be looking for those? Especially if they carry enough bulk significance to trivialize our models. Seriously people think the tailpipe emissions from hummers will destroy the planet, that's why we had a lot of SUVs burned and why electric cars are being hailed as saviors of the future.

    73. Re:Hansen again? by KhabaLox · · Score: 1

      it is a whole lot easier to change an environment than to remodel society.

      That's pretty much the crux of the problem, right there.

      --
      Ceci n'est pas un sig.
    74. Re:Hansen again? by jkflying · · Score: 1

      I agree, however if contraception is is easily enough available than, hopefully, the only people who do get pregnant are those who want the kid. Personally, I think mandatory contraception starting at puberty for both sexes should be implemented. If you want to have children you should have to take a test. After all, which is more of a responsibility: raising a child, or driving a car?

      --
      Help I am stuck in a signature factory!
    75. Re:Hansen again? by jkflying · · Score: 1

      *then

      --
      Help I am stuck in a signature factory!
    76. Re:Hansen again? by tbannist · · Score: 1

      Actually, the models do a reasonable job of projecting scenarios. Most of the "models can't predict the future" stuff is from people who don't understand what a model is. The first clue is that models don't make predictions, they project what will happen given a set of predictions. This is important, because when evaluating a models performance, you shouldn't fault the model if the predicted events are different from what actually happened. The predictions are external to the model. To properly evaluate the models performance, you have to go back and use the actual events (fossil fuel use, land change, solar input, volcanic activity and other factors) and see how close it's projections were to reality when given real events to determine essentially how well it would have performed with a "perfect" prediction of the future inputs to the model.

      Most of the models used to project global warming scenarios do a reasonably good job once the differences between predicted events and actual events are taken into account (remember the predicted events are external, hypothetical data fed into the model). A frequent trick used by global warming "sceptics" is to take the scenario that was furthest from actual events and using that to "prove" that the models are unreliable. If you are interested in reading up on some historical perspective on climate modelling, Skeptical Science did a series of blog posts called Lessons from Past Climate Predictions looking at the record. It can be quite an informative read.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    77. Re:Hansen again? by bjdevil66 · · Score: 1

      Republicans, on the other hand, love unwanted pregnancies. And STDs. They are God's punishments for having sex. That is why they hate both birth control and abortions. You are circumventing God's will that you be punished with a child. If you don't believe me, look up the controversy over the HPV vaccine.

      I call "grizzled, partisan BS". I'm a religious Republican (attend church every week, etc.). My oldest son just got his first dose of the HPV vaccine, and my other son will get it when it's time. HPV is a part of life now, and you don't want it - so you'd better get innoculated.

      I also believe that birth control should be made available to those who want it and is a personal decision. Religious types that refuse to dispense birth control are hurting others' ability to choose for themselves.

      While abortions are truly sad and I have no problem with laws that educate potential mothers about the possible physical and psychological risks of aborting a fetus (which piss liberals off because they feel like unwanted peer pressure), banning abortions altogether in the 1st trimester isn't "fair and balanced" policy (apologies to Fox News), considering all things (especially your "who's going to take care of them?" argument). Some people who are against abortion at any point don't even realize that regular birth control pills can cause a fertilized embryo to not implant in the uterus - technically causing an abortion by "the pill"... I agree with the basic, compromising principle of, "Once the child becomes a viable life form of its own (roughly 20 weeks - or 1 lb.), the mother has vanquished all rights to kill the fetus."

      My point isn't to list out every one of my beliefs, but rather to prove that not all GOPers are ignorant idiots incapable of compromise or common sense - just like all Democrats aren't superior, intellectual geniuses.

      The ability to listen and consider the other side of an argument is like the Latin language. People know of it, but precious few actually use it.

    78. Re:Hansen again? by toriver · · Score: 1

      Hush! Everyone knows science is evil, and the faith in the modern luxuries brought by St. Exxon and the Church of The Holy Energy Industry will be our salvation.

    79. Re:Hansen again? by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 1

      The hypothesis doesn't have to be wrong for the experimental evidence to be terrible.

    80. Re:Hansen again? by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 1

      I thought Slashdot recently ran an article with a scientist pointing out that models never, ever worked and kept getting changed because when stuff changed the results were different than the model would predict based on the new data? Or was that for economic models?

    81. Re:Hansen again? by tbannist · · Score: 1

      Actually, the argument put forth by Hansen is that the frequency and distribution of warm climate events has shifted so far from a 1950-1980 base line that it is highly unlikely that the results would be generated randomly by a stable climate. It's not "look how hot it is in July", it's look at the distribution of warm temperature events around the world. They've been increasing in frequency and strength while cold events are getting weaker and less frequent. The warm events are consistently larger, more extreme, and more frequent than the cold events, which is exactly what you would expect if global warming were occurring. Significantly, if global cooling were happening you'd expect the cold events to be larger, more extreme, and more frequent than the hot events. If neither were occurring the events should be close to equally balanced (over time) with some warm years and some cool years and we aren't seeing that either. The last 30 years of temperatures show a consistent warm bias that is statistically significant and unlikely to be random chance.

      And the paper was published at the start of May, so it doesn't take into account this summer's weather.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    82. Re:Hansen again? by kyrio · · Score: 1

      Murder? Does a woman having a miscarriage equate to murder? If you think aborting a fetus is murder, you should abort yourself right now.

    83. Re:Hansen again? by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      My impression of Hansen is that he is someone who would just as soon not be in the limelight but as a leading scientist in the field he has decided the issue is far to important for him to remain silent.

    84. Re:Hansen again? by riverat1 · · Score: 2

      One more little tidbit. You mentioned the weak El Nino's but on the other side of ENSO La Nina's generally lead to somewhat cooler global temperatures but 2011 was the warmest La Nina year ever recorded.

    85. Re:Hansen again? by next_ghost · · Score: 1

      I'll see your stratospheric warming and raise you a missing tropospheric hot spot.

      What missing tropospheric hot spot? Upper troposphere temperatures in tropical regions are withing tolerance of the hot spot prediction. Perhaps a little close to the lower bound but still within tolerance.

      Likewise absence of significant warming in last 15 years,

      You've got to be kidding me. Do you even understand what that sentence means? Statistical significance says nothing about how big the value is. It says whether or not you have enough data to use the value as a valid argument.

    86. Re:Hansen again? by next_ghost · · Score: 1

      That's the definition from the referenced (WUWT) blog post,

      Do I really need to point out that I read that blog post?

    87. Re:Hansen again? by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      The fact is that if the dew point gets as high as your body temperature for any length of time you're going to die. Better hope your AC keeps working.

    88. Re:Hansen again? by ichthus · · Score: 1

      If you think aborting a fetus is murder, you should abort yourself right now.

      Witness the staggering intellect exhibited by a typical libtard.

      --
      sig: sauer
    89. Re:Hansen again? by JTsyo · · Score: 1

      You're luckily it isn't the summer solstice and someone near the north pole took your bet.

    90. Re:Hansen again? by ichthus · · Score: 1

      current methods of abortion are far less barbaric and grisly than the methods of abortion used when it was illegal.

      You're right. Puncturing the skull and sucking the brain out is far less barbaric than the old coat hanger method.

      --
      sig: sauer
    91. Re:Hansen again? by thoughtlover · · Score: 1

      There are good arguments for and against manmade global warming, and personally I think there is no such thing as MMGW.

      Remind us again what the 'good' arguments against it are...?

      The guy with tiger's blood would probably say otherwise... Then again, who knows what he will say next.

      --
      No sig for you! Come back one year!
    92. Re:Hansen again? by DamonHD · · Score: 1

      It's is good to be reminded that individuals like you, with nuance, exist.

      I think of myself as towards the right of the political spectrum at home in sunny London (UK), and have spent 25+ years in banking and doing start-ups, etc, but I'm still probably to the left of you. B^>

      Actually, the problem is not so much the left/right spectrum for as much or as little as its worth, but more like (a) lazy/sloppy thinking, (b) assumptions that the world is tidily binary ("with us or against us" was an unfortunate example) and (c) plain old bigotry/xenophobia/etc (if you're not very like me you must be wrong).

      And there as many people on the left (FWIW) with sloppy thinking and who reject out of hand solutions that they don't like some small part of and are innumerate... I just deleted a posting of mine on another 'green' forum ranting about a particularly odious bit of straw-mannery. Argh! A little understanding of the holes in the Law of the Excluded Middle would help a lot, as would a dose of the pragmatism it suggests.

      Rgds

      Damon

      --
      http://m.earth.org.uk/
    93. Re:Hansen again? by Compaqt · · Score: 1

      Definitions-

      Climate: When it's hot this year, that's climate, a manifestation of a long-term trend.

      Weather: When it's cold this year, that's weather, a time-and-place limited phenomenon.

      --
      I'm not a lawyer, but I play one on the Internet. Blog
    94. Re:Hansen again? by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      He missed that the stratosphere would also cool due to thinning of the ozone layer ...

      I used to think that as well but it turns out that reduced ozone is at best a very minor component of stratospheric cooling. There is an explanation of what's going on with stratospheric cooling here.

    95. Re:Hansen again? by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      There's a famous quote about that to the effect that all models are wrong but they may still be useful. Due to complexity it's unlikely we'll ever be able to make a perfect model of the climate but if the model is more accurate than other methods of prediction then it's useful as a tool to explore how what we think we know about climate matches reality.

    96. Re:Hansen again? by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Abstinence is nice and idealistic and all that however it goes against the fundamental drive to reproduce that all animals including humans have. You could say that someone who successfully practices abstinence is one who is not normal.

    97. Re:Hansen again? by Anynomous+Coward · · Score: 1

      Yeah. I feel deeply sorry for everyone who has been involved with the Curiosity project and is shamed to share the NASA tag with this James Hansen^H^Hwurst.

      --
      I'm not a coward by any name.
    98. Re:Hansen again? by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      I like your position but I'd like to point out something. You said:

      Some people who are against abortion at any point don't even realize that regular birth control pills can cause a fertilized embryo to not implant in the uterus - technically causing an abortion by "the pill"

      Medical science has found that even when birth control is not used some 60-70% of fertilized eggs either fail to implant or spontaneously abort in the first week or so. Because of that fact I don't consider what "the pill" does abortion in any way.

    99. Re:Hansen again? by sumdumass · · Score: 1

      Personally, I both trust my fellow scientific majority when they conclude there's a problem. And based on watching particulate airborne pollution in the 60's to present, I completely accept that we're able to influence climate. Last, it doesn't matter how much of the change is specifically our fault: climate-change problems are our problem............

      QED: we shouldn't sit idle, or 'keep studying without action'.

      Well, it matters a lot if it our fault or not. The solutions to the problem can have no impact if it isn't and we attempt to fix it as if it is. It also matters if the cause is accurate or not. You see, if particulate matter has effected a deviation in temperatures, then solely addressing anthropogenic carbons might not be enough. If for instance we assume global warming is as it is claims and don't take that into account carbon release from the oceans when addressing the problems, we could have too strong of an impact and screw things up too.

      Right now, the fix seems to be "drive the cost of everything up with carbon taxes" in the more developed nations, even while in a depression or world recession. Europe's attempt at fixing it basically helped build China and India and a few South American countries into massive polluters too. The recession has done more to curb carbon emissions then any of the fixes European countries put in place.

      So the solutions to the problems we will still be faced with will require an honest reality check and look into what it is exactly that is trying to be fixed, whether it will realistically have the right impacts or not, and whether or not it harms populations in the process. We need to understand what we are going after else you might as well just pray that everything will ok alright. It could have the same effects.

      Personally, I think if anyone is serious about Global warming we should be doing anything other then selling carbon offsets and buying ocean front property that will be underwater should our fears come true. We should not be taxing or capping everything to lower people's standard of living like the recession has done.

    100. Re:Hansen again? by ahodgson · · Score: 1

      The limits due to entropy apply only to a closed system. The world is not a closed system.

    101. Re:Hansen again? by ahodgson · · Score: 1

      Yeah everyone wants to have bureacrats decide who gets to have kids and who doesn't. Can't see any problems that could result from that.

      Or how about we just accept that a lot of things in this world just suck and maybe we can't fix everything.

    102. Re:Hansen again? by grantspassalan · · Score: 1

      Peer reviewed equals consistent with the majority worldview. The movie “Expelled” brings this out in another controversial area. Any scientist who brings out uncomfortable facts that are contrary to the worldview or lifelong theories of the majority of other scientists or powerful political figures, will not get published in a “mainstream” Journal. In former times, scientists such as Copernicus and Galileo were even persecuted for coming up with evidence that was contrary to the worldview of the powers-that-be of their day. At least in our culture we have mostly progressed past executing those who disagree with the majority view of the power elite. The Internet has made it possible for both geniuses and crackpots to get their ideas before a much wider audience, than it was possible in earlier times.

      --
      A sufficiently advanced simulation is indistinguishable from reality.
    103. Re:Hansen again? by sumdumass · · Score: 1

      I'm not going to claim this is a scientific fact or anything of the sorts. I'm not even going to claim a cause and effect. I'm even going to run away from your Co2 comment.

      However, in my area, I did notice then when the news was reporting solar flares earlier this year (I think they were small but pointed at earth which gave communications systems and power transmissions a scare), I noticed that about 4 days later, we got abnormally high temperatures. Like 90+ in June when it would normally be 70-80 something. There was two that I distinctly remember being in the news, and there was two abnormally high periods of time following them shortly after. This could be a coincidence, but I remember watching something similar during the how months 2 years ago too.

    104. Re:Hansen again? by sumdumass · · Score: 1

      Well, I for one want to know why alien abductions always seem to happen to the dumbest people on the planet and how that makes us appear to the aliens.

      I don't want a Marvin the Martian type thinking we aren't worthy or something and trying to blow the planet up causing intelligent people to go all bugs bunny on them. We have politicians and nukes for that.

    105. Re:Hansen again? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You are mistaken.

      When I was 17, me and this girl was talking about science fiction in my bedroom one night. My parents was away which is probably why this happened. Anyways, she spilled the chip dip all over the floor. She ran to the bathroom to get a towel to clean it up, I was trying to keep it contained to one area by cupping it with my hands.

      Well, I guess I wasn't doing a good job because she slipped on the mess when running back in at such a speed it knocked her panties off and pulled her dress up as she hit the floor. At first, I was embarrassed at what I saw and started to run away, but then I figured she wasn't moving so she might be hurt. I rushed back to her but started sliding too. I hit the ground with sich an impact that it ripped my pants and underwear off and I bounced back up and landed on top of her.

      I think you know where I'm going with this, I literally accidentally had sex with her. I know, we couldn't believe it happened either so we recreated the same situations trying to scientifically determine if it was just a fluke. It wasn't. So we then started trying to take variables out of the picture to see what exactly was needed to make it happen. It turns out that the problem was more common then you would realize. We accidentally has unprotected sex about a dozen times over the next 3 or 4 days.

      This continued in a non experimental form for several months later until I found an unlikely cure for the problem. It turns out the fastest way to end the problem of always having accidental sex is to introduce wedding cake into the mix. Shortly after that, it seems to disappear and the thought of wedding cake seems to continue to suck the drive to try right out of her. I know am able to stop it happening with me and other women by carrying around a picture of her stapled to my first paycheck that had alimony and child support taken out of it.

    106. Re:Hansen again? by Pav · · Score: 1

      Well, I hope you're a vegetarian. Unlike a foetus animals have consciousness, and intelligence often compared to young children (eg. pigs have intelligence comparable to a three year old).

      Stop engaging the lolcats part of your brain and start thinking - you're mistaking the disgust and percieved horror in your own head with objective reality. In my country abortions after 20 weeks are illegal because soon after this time the sensory scaffolding of the foetus becomes capable of *signaling pain. This leaves aside rudimentary consciousness which actually comes into being much later.

      If a car accident permanently reduced someone to a mentally foetal state the plug would be pulled. A pre 20wk foetus is a potential human, sure, but so are most cells in your body now that science has became capable of creating pluripotent stem cell lines from adult cells, not to mention your gametes. Human DNA obviously doesn't qualify a "life" to be "saved"... the ability to sustain a human consciousness does. Many countries have decided that the 20wk limit is where they draw that line for political reasons - pain is mechanically registered after 20wks, athough the consciousness won't exist for quite some time after this.

      * - I've read that there may be vestigial pre-20wk structures that could potentially register pain. Apparently these develop and are reabsorbed as the foetus replays the evolution of simpler lifeforms similar to foetal gill slits and tails.

    107. Re:Hansen again? by gmhowell · · Score: 1

      God doesn't punish for having sex. But the pain of childbirth is a punishment for the Fall. I think family courts are the male equivalent.

      Unwanted pregnancies and STDs *may* be considered a punishment for out of wedlock sex.

      --
      Jesus was all right but his disciples were thick and ordinary. -John Lennon
    108. Re:Hansen again? by Andtalath · · Score: 1

      Go stand in front of a moving train and wait.
      Not doing so is predicting the future.

      Either every weather model ever devised by millions of people working full time on the problem (and now I mean every single one) is wrong or something the last 150 years or so have created an effect far beyond anything in the last 60 million years or so.

      The last 150 years have greatly increased humanities effect on the planet in general, no other real differences have happened.

      Also, according to what has been happening, barring human activity would indicate that we should currently be cooling down.

      So, go stand in front of a train.
      Since you are incapable of extrapolating the future you should have no issue with this.

    109. Re:Hansen again? by Andtalath · · Score: 1

      If the general temperature is X, and the current temperature is X-20, then the current temperature is noticeably cooler than the general temperature.

      Cold and warm are relative factors.

    110. Re:Hansen again? by Andtalath · · Score: 1

      There are 7 billion people.
      Even if every one of us is sacred, it's reasonable to assume that there is a good deal of sacred stuff left even if even a whole bunch of us dies.

      And, people not being born is even less of an issue.

    111. Re:Hansen again? by eugene+ts+wong · · Score: 1

      I don't care much about alien abductions either way, but have you looked at it from a statistical point of view?

      IQ is hardly a measure of intelligence, but it'll do for our puposes. Half of the population has a below average IQ, so that eliminates them. A big chunk is just above average.

      Of the few remain, only a portion really knows how to collect data.

      Of the few that remain, hardly any [if any at all], have data collecting equipmenty ready when the abduction occurs.

    112. Re:Hansen again? by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 1

      That's not what Wikipedia says! And Wikipedia is edited by EVERYONE! Your single web site is edited by just a small oligarchy (maybe even ONE person) that doesn't have to worry about people correcting their inaccurate tripe!

      (Everything on the Internet is wrong: Wikipedia can be edited by any moron; and any non-public-generated Web site is controlled entirely by one moron)

    113. Re:Hansen again? by lonecrow · · Score: 1

      Go watch Soylent Green again. Made in 1973 and premised on Global Warming. So not only was it in the science, it was also in popular culture.

    114. Re:Hansen again? by sumdumass · · Score: 1

      Interesting consideration.

      I was actually attempting to make a joke on the GP's statement of the flawed methodology bringing up the possibility of proving a higher statistical certainty in the increase of alien abductions that i somewhat agree with.

      But it seems that if we take into consideration the information you showed and corrected the data points in order to account for the lack of preparedness and IQ we might actually be able to pull it off. :)

    115. Re:Hansen again? by ichthus · · Score: 1

      So... it's only murder if they can feel pain. Gotcha.

      --
      sig: sauer
    116. Re:Hansen again? by ebvwfbw · · Score: 1

      What if we put 1950-2012 on the top and left side of a grid, and then each entry in the grid was the trendline with endpoints determined by the column and row? And then finally average all trendlines that had a span greater than 10 years? Could this help show that 1998 was an outlier?

      Why 1950? Let's go back to 1930. Don't worry, they won't. Their theories fall apart if they do.

    117. Re:Hansen again? by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Statistically accurate monitoring of processes has been a standard in industry for a looooong time. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Control_chart#Chart_details The frequency of outliers from the previously seen upper and lower control limits is absolutely a function of the probability that the process has changed.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    118. Re:Hansen again? by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      In addition to this parental and, yes, proper advice: Go read some books in stead of throwing toys.
      There are good arguments for and against manmade global warming, and personally I think there is no such thing as MMGW.
      Thing is; there is no way of telling just yet.

      Just yet? OK, maybe you could clue me in as to what exact piece of evidence that would prove that GW is MM that we haven't stumbled on yet. A signed confession or something? If there is no piece of evidence which could ever prove to you AGW exists, it would be honest of you to say that; or else tell us what exactly we are missing, so somebody could get to work and either find that evidence or not and settle things.

      It is just a way of predicting the future, and there is no such business. The models are only as good as the information (=pre-assumptions) one puts in there, and then there is a huge lag of possible parameters in all those models.

      One thing one could say is: There was no global warming in the last 10 years.

        - But maybe that was just a temporary 'plateau', and it will continue to rise even further;

        - But maybe this is a 'top pattern' and things will cool down now;

        - But maybe the data was corrupted;

        - But maybe the models of tomorrow are much more accurate
      In short; it is a bit to much:"*staring at handpalm, gipsy-accent* There will be a dark lady in your life! And great fortune as well!". We will know what the weather will be in 20 years after 20 years have gone by. The rest of all the people who (think they) can predict the future: GO BUY LOTTO TICKETS YOU IDIOT!!!

      I can predict quite easily that buying lotto tickets isn't going to be worth what I would spend on them, so I don't. I suppose that's just an attempt to see the future, though, which nobody can do, right?

      And that "no warming over the past 10 years" trope only had a one year shelf life. It expired when 2008 did.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    119. Re:Hansen again? by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      This is a common error, frequently made be people who don't understand mathematics and graphs. As long as there is random noise in data, there will always be "plateaus" where things look stable but the underlining trend continues. In the case of global warming, if you try you can actually find a series of continuous downward slopes so that any year of the temperature record can appear to be part of a declining trend, while actual temperatures rise consistently. This is sometimes called going down the up escalator.

      Indeed. Since I can measure each stair tread in my staircase and find them to be quite flat, it is therefore apparent that my staircase cannot possibly connect the upstairs with the downstairs.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    120. Re:Hansen again? by JBaustian · · Score: 1

      I still a copy of a college paper I wrote in the early 1990s on the subject of global warming. The bibliography included several articles by Dr Hansen. So I've been familiar with his work for a very long time.

      I don't remember exactly when I began to lose respect for his work -- it was when he decided to become an advocate for a political cause, while still pretending to be a scientist. Now I'm not even sure if he's sane -- he's close to the edge.

    121. Re:Hansen again? by DeadCatX2 · · Score: 1

      Well, you can pick any arbitrary start point. I don't really care much, I just picked 1950 out of thin air.

      The advantage to the approach I suggested is that it would filter out any problems with start/end date cherry picking, because it essentially picks all possible combinations of start/end dates. It would be over 3000 regression lines, so if the vast majority of them agreed, you'd know that was the "real" regression line.

      --
      :(){ :|:& };:
    122. Re:Hansen again? by Magius_AR · · Score: 1

      This is a common error, frequently made be people who don't understand mathematics and graphs. As long as there is random noise in data, there will always be "plateaus" where things look stable but the underlining trend continues. In the case of global warming, if you try you can actually find a series of continuous downward slopes so that any year of the temperature record can appear to be part of a declining trend, while actual temperatures rise consistently.

      You mean like focusing on the statistical noise in the last 100 years instead of the big picture?

      http://www.longrangeweather.com/global_temperatures.htm

      I agree that such focus on the short-term trends can be very misleading.

    123. Re:Hansen again? by ebvwfbw · · Score: 1

      Well, you can pick any arbitrary start point. I don't really care much, I just picked 1950 out of thin air.

      The advantage to the approach I suggested is that it would filter out any problems with start/end date cherry picking, because it essentially picks all possible combinations of start/end dates. It would be over 3000 regression lines, so if the vast majority of them agreed, you'd know that was the "real" regression line.

      Don't worry, I just threw it out there. The fact is, the Italians in Venice were trying to keep out the Adriatic in the 14th century. Not hard to find. Then we had the mini ice age, which we are coming out of now. Certain people built a business depending on nature to be nature and make humans feel guilty, which is easy to do. So many accept normal things as a proof. Yet in the late 19th century, Hog island just off NYC was wiped out by a hurricane. If that happened today - whoa nelly! Surely that would somehow be "proof"!

    124. Re:Hansen again? by flaming+error · · Score: 1

      "personally I think there is no such thing as MMGW"

      You won't catch me saying scientists are infallible, but I really don't get why laymen who are generally reasonable and intelligent think they know better than a large body of professionals who've analyzed vast libraries of raw data going back for millenia.

      Seriously, doesn't it seem like scientists would understand the situation better than partisan pundits, politicians, and laymen?

      If the scientists are wrong, show them their mistake by publishing your own peer-reviewed findings in Nature. You'll be a rock star among both scientists and "skeptics", and you'll make a mint on the speaking and book circuits.

    125. Re:Hansen again? by flaming+error · · Score: 1

      Knowing the root cause prevents us from exacerbating and repeating it.

      A triple bypass surgery may be necessary and urgent, but until the patient cuts back on the bacon-wrapped deep-fried twinkies, surgery won't solve the problem.

  2. All This From 1 Degree C by HangingChad · · Score: 5, Interesting

    All this drought, devastation and disaster from just under 1 degree C. Imagine what it will be like at 2 degrees! When you multiply the amount of energy it takes to raise the temperature of the oceans and air by 1 degree, it's a number that's off the charts. How did people think we could dump that much energy into any system and it would not make a difference?

    --
    That's our life, the big wheel of shit. - The Fat Man, Blue Tango Salvage
    1. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by marjancek · · Score: 5, Insightful

      How did people think we could dump that much energy into any system and it would not make a difference?

      Well, that's weird: people commenting without having an idea about the issue.
      We dumping energy into the system?

      We are not giving [so much] energy into the system; we are just pouring green-house gases into the atmosphere, which in turn stop the planet from loosing energy at the rate it has dissipated it before. That's called green-house effect, because it acts as the glasses in a green house, preventing the heat from leaving the system, and increasing the average temperature.

      It is not about human turning their air conditioners on and heating the atmosphere; it's about burning gas/coal/petrol to generate energy for those air conditioners (and cars, airplanes, industry, etc.) and increasing the level of green-house gases.

    2. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by AlecC · · Score: 4, Informative

      /We/ are not dumping that energy into the system. The sun is. All we are doing is stopping a tiny fraction of the energy that the sun dumps on the earth from escaping.

      Given that turning the sun "up" and "down" (the seasons) can make differences of many tens of degrees, the idea that changing the effective reflectivity can change the average temperature by a degree or two does not seem to me unreasonable. What we are doing is painting the earth blacker in the infra-red. And anybody knows how much more a black surface heats up compared to a white one in strong sunlight.

      --
      Consciousness is an illusion caused by an excess of self consciousness.
    3. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by jbmartin6 · · Score: 5, Informative

      The point was that the energy to raise global temps doesn't come from human activities, it comes from the sun. The difference is now in the process by which the sun's energy is radiated back into space.

      --
      This posting is provided 'AS IS' without warranty of any kind, implied or otherwise.
    4. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by squizzar · · Score: 5, Funny

      Fuck me sideways. Can we sort this shit out. To free something is to loose it. To not win is to lose. If you were practising archery you'd be loosing arrows. If you were walking around with coins falling from your pocket you would be losing money. If you open all the cages at the zoo the animals have been loosed. If you drop your keys down the drain they are lost. A sibling's death might mean you lose a brother. A tragedy might occur to someone you are loosely related to. If something is not tight it is loose. To make it less tight would be to make it looser. Not knowing the difference between loose and lose makes you sound like a loser.

      If English is not your first language then I apologise: in that case you are a far more capable speaker than many who would call English their native tongue, and I can certainly make no claims to proficiency in any other language, but I see this mistake so very often, from people who should genuinely know better that I cannot keep the inner pedant at bay any more.

    5. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 3, Insightful

      1 degree temperature difference doesn't cause drought. Drought is caused by it raining in the wrong place. It's always gonna rain ... in the desert it rains on the other side of the mountain. If the wind blows all the rain clouds north, or jetstreams take them west and over your farmland FOR A YEAR, it doesn't rain on you. Changing weather patterns can change the way the wind moves, changing where water vapor concentrates and preventing it from raining in an area; if it didn't rain the planet would turn into Venus (high humidity everywhere), but of course it'll just rain somewhere else. Over the ocean is a good, useless place for rain to go.

    6. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by petermgreen · · Score: 4, Informative

      It requires ENERGY to raise TEMPERATURES. 1 calorie (unit of energy) is required to raise 1 gram of water 1 degree Celsius.

      However to keep that water at 1 degree celcius above it's surroundings will require continuous energy input since any item hotter than it's surroundings will constantly lose heat to it's surroundings.

      This means in the long term there are TWO ways to increase the temperature of an object. You can increase the rate at which heat is supplied to the object or you can make it harder for the object to lose heat to it's surroundings. The greenhouse affect does the latter.

      --
      note: i'm known as plugwash most places but i screwd up registering that here somehow in the past and now can't register
    7. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by alen · · Score: 1

      i remember droughts and crazy hot weather from the 80's. remember We Are the World? they raised a lot of money for an Ethiopian famine. US Midwest was almost a constant drought in the 80's as well as yearly flooding by the Mississippi wiping out people's homes

    8. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by X0563511 · · Score: 2

      Go put on a jacket. Notice how you got warmer? I don't believe your putting a jacket on released any significant amount of energy - it just keeps the system more insulated (eg, energy doesn't escape so quickly)

      You'll notice that if you step outside into the sun, there's a short period where you don't feel warmer immediately? That's the jacket doing the same thing - it's harder for energy to get inside the system from without (though the sun and ambient air temperature will quickly overwhelm the difference, so you'll start getting hot (hmm, just like the planet!))

      --
      For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...
    9. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by sociocapitalist · · Score: 2

      All this drought, devastation and disaster from just under 1 degree C. Imagine what it will be like at 2 degrees! When you multiply the amount of energy it takes to raise the temperature of the oceans and air by 1 degree, it's a number that's off the charts. How did people think we could dump that much energy into any system and it would not make a difference?

      What's not to understand...when you're talking to people who think the world has only been around for a few thousand years, you can't really expect them to grasp concepts like global warming.

      --
      blindly antisocialist = antisocial
    10. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by spidercoz · · Score: 1

      Incorrect. Greenhouse gases inhibit the release of heat back into space, i.e., they insulate the planet. They do not, in and of themselves, produce heat.

      --
      "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - Evelyn Beatrice Hall, re Voltaire
    11. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by Aphoxema · · Score: 2, Insightful

      The point was that the energy to raise global temps doesn't come from human activities, it comes from the sun. The difference is now in the process by which the sun's energy is radiated back into space.

      We're releasing energy stored over the course of 150 million years, there's a lot of sunlight in that oil, coal and wood. The funny part is we're releasing this energy to do things that are believed to cause less energy to radiate back into space (for the time being).

      --
      "Most people, I think, don't even know what a rootkit is, so why should they care about it?"
    12. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by cusco · · Score: 2

      Just a bit of historical trivia; 'We Are The World' was the result of a slow news cycle for a couple of influential magazines. It was already the ninth year of famine in Ethiopia, but there was nothing else at that moment in time that was producing shocking images that would sell magazines so the editors went with stories that had been sitting on their desks for months (and in at least one case two years).

      --
      "Think about how stupid the average person is. Now, realise that half of them are dumber than that." - George Carlin
    13. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by pubwvj · · Score: 3, Interesting

      It isn't the 1ÂC change that is the problem. It is the bad habitat practices (cities, suburbs, huge parking lots), bad transportation practices (too much driving, too much shipping) and the bad agricultural practices (mono-cropping, feedlots, grain feeding, over production, poor choices of plant species), etc.

      Most of this is caused by government subsidization of bad decisions. Stop these subsidies and there will be a lot of self-correction. Yes, people will complain about higher gasoline prices, loss of home mortgage deductible, higher food prices, etc but paying the real cost will help them make better decisions.

      All of this is reverse-able, correctable, if you have the will to do better. How much more are you willing to pay at the pump, pay for locally pastured meats, pay for locally grown foods, pay for locally produced products, pay for longer lasting goods, skip the cheap plastics, do more yourself, stop traveling so much? You can make a difference. Act now.

    14. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      It's rare to see someone at slashdot say "loose" without meaning "lose", but in the case of the GP's comment, either word fits. "we are just pouring green-house gases into the atmosphere, which in turn stop the planet from losing energy" and "we are just pouring green-house gases into the atmosphere, which in turn stop the planet from setting energy free" are both correct.

      To not win is to lose

      If the second place prize is $500, you haven't lost even though you didn't come in first. Olympic silver medal winners didn't win, but they didn't lose, either. The losers come in last.

    15. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by marjancek · · Score: 1

      To free something is to loose it. To not win is to lose.

      Ha ha; no, English is not my first language; not even my second language.

      But thanks for the explanation; I haven't noticed those were two different words before.

    16. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by GNious · · Score: 1

      2nd place is just the first loser...

    17. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by spidercoz · · Score: 2

      Hmm, maybe you're just too subtle.

      --
      "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - Evelyn Beatrice Hall, re Voltaire
    18. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by CAIMLAS · · Score: 1

      You're falling prey to the same faulty reasoning the mainstream media does all the time.

      No, it is not "just 1 degree C". It's also:

      cyclical El Nino patterns resulting in:
        * a warm winter
        * negligible snow fall
        * low rainfall over land in CONUS

      When we have flooding in a couple years from El Nina, the climatologists will blame that on global warming, too (just as they have since the 1990s, when sun activity had nothing to do with it, either, of course).

      When you multiply the amount of energy it takes to raise the temperature of the oceans and air by 1 degree, it's a number that's off the charts. How did people think we could dump that much energy into any system and it would not make a difference?

      Cute. I suppose we could explode a bunch of atom bombs and blow up all our nuke reactors, but aside from that, I'm not sure. That may not even do it. Do you have any ideas?

      --
      ~/ssh slashdot.org ssh: connect to host slashdot.org port 22: too many beers
    19. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      The energy released by burning fossil fuels (and from nuclear reactions), commonly called waste heat, is so small compared to the energy the Sun radiates onto the Earth that it can be ignored for all practical purposes. The average insolation at the surface of the Earth is around 250 W/m^2. The average energy released by human activities is about 0.028 W/m^2 or about 1/9,000th as much energy as we get from the Sun. The forcing due to the greenhouse gases added by human activities in the past 250 years is currently about 2.9 W/m^2 or about 100 times as much as the waste heat. That puts waste heat near the bottom of the priority list.

    20. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by grantspassalan · · Score: 1

      The average temperature of the earth is determined by the difference between how much the sun heats the earth and how much energy is radiated away into space. The whole premise of AGW is that CO2 reduces the amount of heat escaping from the earth, thus raising the average temperature. CO2 is a greenhouse gas, but only comprises about 395 ppm of the atmosphere. Water vapor, H2O is also a greenhouse gas, but it makes up about 40,000 ppm (4%) of the atmosphere (above the oceans). Which of those 2 greenhouse gases do you suppose affects the balance between received energy and radiated energy more? Is it possible, just maybe, in your thinking, that the average temperature of the earth is affected much more by the received solar energy and the much higher concentration of water vapor than so much smaller amount of CO2?

      --
      A sufficiently advanced simulation is indistinguishable from reality.
    21. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by Aphoxema · · Score: 1

      The energy released by burning fossil fuels (and from nuclear reactions), commonly called waste heat, is so small compared to the energy the Sun radiates onto the Earth that it can be ignored for all practical purposes. The average insolation at the surface of the Earth is around 250 W/m^2. The average energy released by human activities is about 0.028 W/m^2 or about 1/9,000th as much energy as we get from the Sun. The forcing due to the greenhouse gases added by human activities in the past 250 years is currently about 2.9 W/m^2 or about 100 times as much as the waste heat. That puts waste heat near the bottom of the priority list.

      That... is actually pretty helpful. I think I turn on the oven the kitchen turns straight into hell, I suppose there's a lot more kitchen outside and all out ovens together aren't so big in relation.

      --
      "Most people, I think, don't even know what a rootkit is, so why should they care about it?"
    22. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by grantspassalan · · Score: 1

      CO2 is definitely a greenhouse gas, but so is water vapor, H2O. Since there is about 100 times as much water vapor in the atmosphere than CO2, it has a much greater effect on temperature, other things being equal. This tremendous effect of water vapor as a greenhouse gas is amply demonstrated to the millions of people on the East Coast and the West Coast of the United States. The CO2 content of the atmosphere in both places is approximately the same. In the last couple weeks, while the East Coast was sweltering with unusually high temperatures, it was also quite toasty here on the West Coast. The daytime peaks were actually about the same. At nighttime, at midnight, where my daughter lives in North Carolina, it was still over 90F, while here it was about 60F or slightly below at midnight our time. I will let you Google the average humidities of the West and East coasts, but I am sure you know there is a great difference.

      What conclusions can you draw from that as to the relative importance of water vapor and CO2 as greenhouse gases?

      --
      A sufficiently advanced simulation is indistinguishable from reality.
    23. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      You are right that droughts are caused by lack of precipitation when and where it would otherwise be expected but they can be exacerbated by heat waves. In a prolonged drought with high temperatures the water gets evaporated out of the soil faster and once the soil is dry it starts baking. Also, talking about 1 degree of temperature difference is kind of misleading. That is the average over the whole globe made up of many thousands of discrete observations. It doesn't mean every place is going to experience exactly that 1 degree. As Hansen points out it shifts the whole bell curve of temperatures toward the hot side making extreme hot spells more likely and extreme cold spells less likely.

    24. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Anyways, the climatologists and scientists need to work together and publish one big document.

      Like this one?

    25. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      I hope you're just trying to be funny. If not 1 degree C of temperature change is equivalent to 1.8 degrees F change.

    26. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      The Hiroshima is a new unit of energy equivalent to the energy of the Little Boy bomb. The oceans are currently heating up at a rate of over 2 Hiroshima's per second. Ignoring the possibility of nuclear winter all the nuclear explosions we could produce wouldn't make a lick of difference.

    27. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      The difference between CO2 and water vapor as greenhouse gases is that water vapor is a condensing GHG and CO2 is a non-condensing GHG. In the conditions that prevail on Earth water vapor condenses and falls out of the atmosphere but CO2 doesn't. The level of water vapor in the atmosphere is strictly controlled by temperature. That means that water vapor cannot drive temperature changes by itself but only as a feedback of other things like CO2 or changes to the state of the Milankovitch cycles that force temperature changes. If you removed all of the greenhouse gases other than water vapor from the atmosphere the temperature would start to drop reducing the level of water vapor causing more drop. Eventually the water vapor would reach a new balance in the atmosphere but probably not before the oceans froze over and we had a new snowball Earth.

    28. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by grantspassalan · · Score: 1

      There is one other aspect in this water vapor scenario that you neglected to mention. Water vapor is lighter than air and CO2 is heavier than air. Water-vapor therefore tends to rise to such a level in the atmosphere where it can condense because there are still sufficient particles of dust around which it can condense. If the temperature of the earth as a whole would go to about 85F - 95 F, that condensation level would be above where there is sufficient dust to allow condensation. This means that water vapor could no longer condense and therefore would keep on accumulating above the present atmosphere. That layer of water vapor would then carry the excess heat to its upper layers where it would be radiated into space. Eventually an equilibrium would be established. A significant fraction of the Earth's water would be in and above the atmosphere, exposing most if not all of the continental shelves. The continuation of the Amazon River channel on the South American continental shelf and the very existence of fossil fuels is evidence that such conditions existed once upon the earth. There are other places on earth, where great rivers have carved channels into the continental shelf before plunging into the deep ocean basins beyond.

      It is no coincidence that life processes become optimum at just above that temperature around 95 to 105 F as evidenced by the internal temperatures of mammals. Therefore, global warming, if it proceeded to its ultimate limit would be beneficial to most life forms, especially humans. Ocean levels would actually be lower, greatly increasing the usable land resources and reducing the energy requirements of the entire planet's populations. The vast polar regions of the earth would become warm and habitable. Since violent weather such as hurricanes and tornadoes is spawned by temperature differences, those weather phenomena would be eliminated because temperature differences in the lower atmosphere would be small or nonexistent. Global warming, bring it on!

      --
      A sufficiently advanced simulation is indistinguishable from reality.
    29. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      I read all of that and didn't quite know what to make of it. I don't think your hypothesis is very realistic.

      There are lots of things besides dust that can be cloud condensation nuclei and I doubt there is any level of the atmosphere that is totally without them. If the air becomes supersaturated to around 400% water will condense regardless of the availability of condensation nuclei and once that starts it will cascade back down to 100% or lower rather quickly. The total amount of water in the atmosphere is enough to cover the Earth's surface with about 1 inch of water. Assuming that's for a relative humidity of 50% then 100% would mean 2 inches and 400% would mean 8 inches. I seriously doubt you could get enough water vapor in the atmosphere under any scenario to change sea level by more than a foot or two. The times in the past when sea level has been very low is during glaciations (ice ages), not hot ages. The fact that water vapor is lighter than air and CO2 is heaver than air makes little difference to their distribution in the atmosphere. The CO2 concentration is not significantly reduced as the elevation increases, a fact that has been measured. Water vapor however is scarce above the troposphere because as you rise it get colder (lapse rate) and the water vapor condenses out. The polar regions may become much warmer but they'll still be subject to little or no sunlight during the winter months and the melting of the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica would raise sea levels over 200 feet.

       

    30. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by ZenCushion · · Score: 1

      Ditto the comment from spidercoz, @petermgreen: you are confusing conduction, convection and radiation. So-called 'greenhouse gases' do not "make it harder for [an] object to lose heat to it's [sic] surroundings" (in the sense of thermal conduction or convection to "surroundings"). It is the recapture of a percentage of black-body radiation from the Earth (by molecules of atmospheric gas) that would otherwise escape into space -- not the insulation or prevention of convection or conduction in a closed thermodynamic system -- that constitutes the physics behind the analysis, theories and models of the degree of this effect on the climate of the Earth. In fact, the term 'greenhouse' is in itself misleading. Actual greenhouses do prevent the dissipation of thermal energy from within their structures by inhibiting convection, not radiation. Black-body radiation is not stopped by the glass of the greenhouse at all. The temperature inside the confined air of a greenhouse rises because convection (and to a certain degree conduction) is inhibited. You are using a 'thermos bottle' metaphor, which is not correct.

    31. Re:All This From 1 Degree C by ZenCushion · · Score: 1

      Ditto the comment from spidercoz, @petermgreen: you are confusing conduction, convection and radiation. So-called 'greenhouse gases' do not "make it harder for [an] object to lose heat to it's [sic] surroundings" (in the sense of thermal conduction or convection to "surroundings"). It is the recapture of a percentage of black-body radiation from the Earth (by molecules of atmospheric gas) that would otherwise escape into space -- not the insulation or prevention of convection or conduction in a closed thermodynamic system -- that constitutes the physics behind the analysis, theories and models of the degree of this effect on the climate of the Earth. In fact, the term 'greenhouse' is in itself misleading. Actual greenhouses do prevent the dissipation of thermal energy from within their structures by inhibiting convection, not radiation. Black-body radiation is not stopped by the glass of the greenhouse at all. The temperature inside the confined air of a greenhouse rises because convection (and to a certain degree conduction) is inhibited. You are using a 'thermos bottle' metaphor, which is not correct.

  3. Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by wisebabo · · Score: 3, Funny

    In the U.S. the conservative political party (the ones opposed to doing anything about this) is called the Republicans.

    By and large they live in the center and southern parts of the country, the parts most affected by the heat.

    So, in a sense, they are burning in the Hell they themselves have created. Unfortunately the rest of the world is also suffering.

    1. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      So, in a sense, they are burning in the Hell they themselves have created.

      Yes, because the Democrats have had _no_ influence over any environmental, industrial or war policies of the USA for the last 200 years... AND it's all America's fault... *sigh*

    2. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by jgtg32a · · Score: 4, Funny

      Your self control is amazing, how were you able to resist writing Rethuglicans? What's your secret?

    3. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by dbet · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Really? And what are the Republicans in China and India doing? How about Europe? It's *Global* Warming, and unless you don't use energy derived from burning fossil fuels, you're just as responsible. And I don't see a slow down or reverse of the trend without a massive change in technology over a very short time.

    4. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by JWW · · Score: 4, Informative

      The conservatives need to change their stance on global warming. The reason they are always "against" it is that all the political solutions to global warming that are proffered by the left represent the left's statist wet dream. But as I have come to realize, the only real way to solve global warming is through advancements in science and engineering to give us cheap reliable sources of green energy.

      The left may say that their statist utopia and an all powerful communal government would solve this, but they'd be just as wrong as they were every other time they've gotten that chance in the past.

      We need to find the next Einstein or Tesla to think up solutions to global warming, not the next Mao or Lenin.

    5. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by Pumpkin+Tuna · · Score: 1

      Not to mention us poor outnumbered liberals sweating alongside them in the South.

    6. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by kayditty · · Score: 1

      in the US, the conservative politica party is called the Libertarians. republicans aren't opposed to big government nonsense at all. you're confused. but, yes, of course true conservatives don't want to politicize the environment and take taxpayer money by theft to spend on their pet projects, under the guise of "progress."

    7. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by Pumpkin+Tuna · · Score: 5, Funny

      Think you could shove any more Libertarian catchphrases into that? Of course you do get extra points for using "statist" twice.

    8. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by JoshuaZ · · Score: 2

      The universe doesn't care about your ideology and operates the same way whether you like it or not. Not liking regulation for ideological reasons shouldn't impact whether or not regulation will accomplish a specific set of goals. If you are always convinced that your ideology and how the laws of physics work always align, then something is wrong with your evaluation of how reality functions.

    9. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by mellon · · Score: 3, Insightful

      My favorite solution to global warming is to tax carbon use and redistribute the proceeds evenly, creating a market incentive for people to stop using carbon. This neatly addresses the externality of carbon use, requires no special bureaucracy, and obsoletes itself as carbon use declines, while at the same time not unfairly penalizing people who are stuck using carbon fuels now.

    10. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 2

      Statist wet dream? Sir are you implying that politicians are interested in their own political agendas and not purely in the well-being of everyone on this shiny blue planet?

    11. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by Vintermann · · Score: 2

      Not coincidentally, this is exactly the "wet statist dream" proposed by James Hansen (who voted for Reagan, by the way).

      --
      xkcd is not in the sudoers file. This incident will be reported.
    12. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by mcvos · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Absolutely. Everybody who doesn't cut backs much as possible on his fossil energy use carries blame for this.

      That said, Europe also definitely has its share of conservatives who are not so eager to do anything about this. They're generally not denying the facts as loudly as US Republicans do, but they also don't consider it something that they need to worry about. As if they're hoping it'll go away if they just focus on other problems.

    13. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by dkleinsc · · Score: 4, Informative

      The idea usually tossed around regarding CO2 emissions is a cap-and-trade system, modelled after the system created for SO2. That approach was to use market incentives rather than lots of regulations to get companies to reduce their emissions, and it's generally been a success in reducing acid rain. It was conceived of by civil servants at the EPA, but became law only in 1990 with the support of that well-known liberal George H.W. Bush. How exactly is that a "left's statist wet dream"?

      --
      I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
    14. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by mcvos · · Score: 2

      I'm confused. Isn't it the left that generally wants to invest in and stimulate the science and engineering to give us cheap and reliable sources of green energy? Does that make them statist, or is that what you want? It's actually the results from global agreements between mostly authoritarian conservative national leaders that result in more statism.

    15. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by jodido · · Score: 1

      The scientific solutions already exist. The problem is political--how to get them implemented. "Scientific solutions" don't implement themselves no matter how clever they are.

    16. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by dbIII · · Score: 5, Insightful

      As an outside observer, I'd say they didn't have much influence on environmental policy (and I'll ignore the extra baggage you've thrown in about war in an attempt to muddy the issue). Those "liberal" environmental policies that give you guys better air quality than shitholes in China came in thanks to Nixon. It seems Democrats got blocked every time they tried something similar even if both parties thought it was a good idea.

    17. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by kenorland · · Score: 1

      The conservatives need to change their stance on global warming.

      Why? It seems to be working in throwing a monkey wrench into idiotic government policies.

      We need to find the next Einstein or Tesla to think up solutions to global warming, not the next Mao or Lenin.

      Nuclear and solar are perfectly good technologies; we're not going to get anything better. The government could help things along if it stopped subsidizing (directly and indirectly) carbon-based fuels. Nothing else is really needed.

    18. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by cusco · · Score: 1

      Advancements in science and engineering aren't going to help enough if you don't reduce the population of humans. Either we do it ourselves or Ma Nature will do it for us fairly soon (and she's a real bitch).

      --
      "Think about how stupid the average person is. Now, realise that half of them are dumber than that." - George Carlin
    19. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by kenorland · · Score: 1

      None of the "regulations" proposed to combat global warming will make any difference, and not even the most progressive American or European voter would be willing to make the kinds of sacrifices necessary to make meaningful reductions in carbon emissions. Therefore, all proposed regulations related to global warming are "pure ideology".

    20. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by squiggleslash · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The bit I love is the fact the same people who use the term "statist" tend to also be the people who use the term "State's Rights" and consider it a positive term, apparently not realizing the link between the two words.

      And before I get flamed, yes, I'm aware people who approve of "States Rights" are simply choosing States against Federal or individual rights; in other words picking which government slips on the shackles over your ankles.

      --
      You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
    21. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by DaFallus · · Score: 1

      So what you're saying is that Republicns are solely responsible for AGW and the US is the only country on the planet that can stop it?

      --
      No one cares what your captcha was

      Houston TX, USA
    22. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by ultranova · · Score: 2

      Not liking regulation for ideological reasons shouldn't impact whether or not regulation will accomplish a specific set of goals.

      Of course it does. Just see the Prohibition (any of them) for an example of how ineffective regulation will be when people actively resist it.

      --

      Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

    23. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      Yes, because the Democrats have had _no_ influence over any environmental, industrial or war policies of the USA for the last 200 years

      No, just for the last 30 years.

      That's why we don't have an energy policy.

      Don't think that just because the Democrats control the White House and Congress that they have any influence over policies. Party labels are fungible. When the Democratic Party controlled 60 seats in the senate, maybe 25 of them were actually Democrats.

      Anyway, the government isn't really the government, understand. The government doesn't set industrial policy, industry does.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    24. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by captainpanic · · Score: 1

      In the Netherlands, the temperature of July 2012 was pretty much right on the long term average. Which means it's a miserable summer.

      So, we are indeed also suffering - but at least this year not from the heat. (And yes, I know the difference between the weather and climate - and it is on average heating up here too. Just not this summer.)

    25. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by squiggleslash · · Score: 3, Insightful

      A lot of the proposals have to do with changes in land use, and specifically abolishing the outlawing of mixed and high/medium density development zoning you get in the US at the moment. While many people, even with the choice to live close to the businesses that serve them, will still insist on living in the middle of nowhere, the fact is a lot of us would choose to live in such neighborhoods if they were available and - with supply being increased - were no longer horrendously expensive.

      That's one major policy change that would make a difference. Not everyone wants to drive a friggin' car just get a gallon of milk, and very few people want to spend 2-3 times as much on groceries as they would in a country where land, and therefore the transportation of commodities, is planned more effectively.

      The problem right now is that the far right has successfully painted the entire process of dealing with climate change as something that would reduce choice and force people to give things up. The reality is that there are plenty of policy changes the US government can make that would increase choices and result in a massive reduction in the amount of CO2 emitted.

      --
      You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
    26. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      It's very wrong to assume all Libertarians are right-leaning. Not all Libertarians are anti-Left, there are many flavors. It shits me that in the US you have corrupted this term. Libertarianism doesn't have much in common with major Conservative party policies including those of present-day Republicans, who are not Libertarians, just as the Australian Liberal Party are not liberals. The Australian Labor Party are not socialists either for the most part.

    27. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by NeutronCowboy · · Score: 1

      You do understand that by definition, a conservative wants to be keep things the same (static), and that liberals want to change things (dynamic)?

      We need to find the next Einstein or Tesla to think up solutions to global warming, not the next Mao or Lenin.

      Since you seem more keen on applying labels to people than to actually understand the words that are coming out of your mouth, I doubt you'd be able to tell the next Einstein from the next Mao.

      --
      Those who can, do. Those who can't, sue.
    28. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      "And what are the Republicans in China and India doing?"
      per capita emissions, in metric tons:
      USA - 17.5
      china - 5.3
      India - 1.5

    29. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by CommieLib · · Score: 1

      You're right, but for an even more compelling and less debatable reason than you've specified - even if we implemented the statist wet dreams, as you say, the other statists in the world are going to laugh their asses off at us and burn fossil fuels.

      If, on the other hand, someone makes some real progress with nuclear, we get a vastly better trade-off that everyone will rush to copy. My money is still on the Polywell, or some development in that direction.

      --
      If your bitterest enemies are people who hack the heads off civilians, then I would say you're doing something right.
    30. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by DamonHD · · Score: 5, Informative

      "... and not even the most progressive American or European voter would be willing to make the kinds of sacrifices necessary to make meaningful reductions in carbon emissions."

      Complete nonsense: speaking for myself and many others I know we've more than halved our carbon footprint (for example we're carbon negative at home for primary energy now, in suburban London) with relatively little effort, and we're probably just about sustainable even if our consumption was adopted by every one of the ~9x10^9 humans that the UN thinks that global population will peak at. And I don't know if I count as "progressive" with whatever meanings you attach to that, good or bad.

      No, we don't own a mansion, SUV or plasma TV(s), nor do we take multiple holidays by jet each year or leave all our lights and appliances on BecauseWeCan(TM), but we are living comfortably and happily as a family of four. We do own our house, etc, BTW.

      Are you prepared to alter your sweeping statement given my counter-example(s)?

      Rgds

      Damon

      --
      http://m.earth.org.uk/
    31. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by squiggleslash · · Score: 4, Insightful

      further still, you misunderstand what states' rights is and how it applies. it has nothing to do with giving the government power. in fact, it has a lot more to do with reducing government powers, by marginalizing their scope. it is a process, not an end.

      Thanks for the pretty lecture, but you, apparently, have confused your idealistic views of what the terms should mean with how they're used in practice.

      To spell it out for you. Statist is almost always used to mean "Any view that holds the government should do anything about anything." You can see this in the originator of this thread, a pseudo-libertarian rant that ascribes any conventionally proposed government action against AGW to be "statist". "I'm enlightened", sayeth the poster, "I can see there are non-statist things we can do too!" Well, great. Because the conventionally proposed government actions have to do with tradable CO2 production quotas and low wattage lightbulbs. Now you can make an argument, if you so wish, that this has to do with a subset of governments involving "elites", but leaving aside the misuse of the term to the point that it's meaningless in discourse in 2012, the fact is "statist" here simply refers to a proposal that the government use its power in any way whatsoever.

      Which is how it's always used. Except perhaps in your own writings. Good for you, but epic fail on ignoring how everyone else is using it.

      "States rights". That refers, objectively, to the proposal that States should be able to pass any damned law they wish, and fuck individuals, and especially fuck the Feds if the Feds try to restrict this in any way whatsoever. Now I can prove this quite easily, and I can prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that this term isn't about "limiting" government through scope, but by "empowering one government at the expense of other people and governments".

      How? Well, the defining issue as far as States Rights go is not the ability to regulate CO2 production, or sell low wattage lightbulbs - although, like the latter, it does cover degrees of whiteness.

      No, the defining States Right issue is race, and the audacity of the Federal Government to trample upon the God-given right of every State to treat Black people like shit. Slavery? States rights! (Funnily enough, the right of a state to refuse to return slaves is never considered a "States Rights" issue by those who use the term.) Opting out of the Union because the other States aren't helping Slave States enforce slavery? "States Rights". Jim Crow? "States Rights". Preventing black people from getting edumicated? "States Rights". Clamping down on Civil rights marches? "States Rights". Preventing black people from voting? "States Rights".

      Now, to be fair, the same people will occasionally use it elsewhere, but rarely in any way that suggests individuals be empowered first and foremost, and the Federal government limited with State governments given limited powers that respect individuals. No, it's pretty much a straightforward "Wah! Wah!! The Federal Government says my State has to stop purging its voter rolls of people with funny names. Its time for States Rights FTW!"

      Again, that's how it's used. Except perhaps in your own writings. Good for you, but epic fail on ignoring how everyone else is using it.

      --
      You are not alone. This is not normal. None of this is normal.
    32. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by GodfatherofSoul · · Score: 1

      I spent a weekend a week ago in rural Kansas. Farmers are getting hammered by the heat and lack of rain. The one bright spot in all of this is that the communities who have been most likely to vote against these policies are getting hit with the consequences the "firstest and the mostest." I'm hopeful that after a few more years we're going to see begrudging acknowledgements that something...anything needs to be done.

      --
      I swear to God...I swear to God! That is NOT how you treat your human!
    33. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by sycodon · · Score: 1

      I do believe that most of the industrial pollution came from what are called Blue states.

      It wasn't Bubba on his farm that made acid rain or polluted the rivers with mercury.

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    34. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by Bigby · · Score: 1

      I don't understand the Republican opposition to cap & trade, no principal. Maybe they have issues with something around the implementation. Friedman would even agree with the principal. It is the most practical way to realize the external costs. My question is around the controls on setting the cap? What is to stop someone from contracting it?

    35. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by sycodon · · Score: 2

      Hello!

      Nuclear Energy.

      If we had continued with nuclear energy instead of letting it die on the cross of the litigators and regulators, CO2 emissions would probably be a fraction of what they are now.

      The reason conservatives are suspicious of the entire AGW movement is that the community ignores the obvious solution in favor of the left's statist wet dream.

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    36. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by IICV · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Well there's a reason why people have taken to calling the Republicans "the party of No" - their strategy in the last few decades essentially seems to have been "block every Democrat proposal when they have the power, then campaign on the fact that the Dems didn't accomplish anything".

      I mean, just look our current health care reform that the Democrats had to fight and plead for and still got no Republican votes. The Republicans were adamantly against it, despite the fact that it was largely based on a Republican proposal from the 90's (when it seemed like First Lady Hillary would push for true, single payer universal health care).

      They've just gone nuts, their entire political strategy seems to have devolved into a toddler's temper tantrum.

    37. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by TubeSteak · · Score: 1

      Your self control is amazing, how were you able to resist writing Rethuglicans? What's your secret?

      He wasn't, instead he has a browser plugin that autocorrects Rethuglicans to Repuglicans.
      That way, he can get the satisfaction of calling 'em thugs and the respectability that comes from not being seen to do so.

      The Dummycrat plugin has less downloads, but I think that's just the lieberals manipulating statistics.

      --
      [Fuck Beta]
      o0t!
    38. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by nightfire-unique · · Score: 1

      The idea usually tossed around regarding CO2 emissions is a cap-and-trade system, modelled after the system created for SO2. That approach was to use market incentives rather than lots of regulations to get companies to reduce their emissions, and it's generally been a success in reducing acid rain. It was conceived of by civil servants at the EPA, but became law only in 1990 with the support of that well-known liberal George H.W. Bush. How exactly is that a "left's statist wet dream"?

      Not that I disagree with the cap-and-trade system, but this is pretty contorted logic. It's isn't "not regulation" just because it uses taxes to encourage a change in behavior. It is regulation, just implemented in a roundabout way.

      --
      A government is a body of people notably ungoverned - AC
    39. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by Red+Flayer · · Score: 2

      So you just specified a policy change that would reduce choice and force people to give things up

      No he didn't. Go back and re-read what he wrote. Please explain how the policy change he described would reduce choice and/or force people to give things up.

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    40. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by bjdevil66 · · Score: 1

      So, in a sense, they are burning in the Hell they themselves have created.

      The "hell they themselves created"? I didn't know that the key "blue" states - New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, California, etc. - with their huge consuming populations and industrial centers, aren't burning nearly as much energy and creating CO2 as the "red", poorer southern states or the "red" farmlands of the midwest...

      Everyone would have to make sacrifices across the entire country to make real change happen. We could set an example for the rest of the world to enviously follow - but neither side REALLY wants that. Both sides want their cake and to eat it too. GOP - "We're entitled to cheap energy, a big military, high paying jobs, and cheaper Chinese-made junk from Wal-Mart! Damn the consequences - just give it all to me!" Dem - "We're entitled to our food stamps, high paying union jobs in thousands of factories, our entitlements - and a clean environment! Give us what we deserve! Damn the consequences... just do it!"

      It's not a "blue" or "red" problem. It's an American entitlement problem.

    41. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by Red+Flayer · · Score: 1

      You do understand that by definition, a conservative wants to be keep things the same (static), and that liberals want to change things (dynamic)?

      That's a matter of context. In the economic context, those are not valid definitions of conservative and liberal; in a social context, those are not valid definitions of conservative and liberal.

      If you look up definitions of economic and social conservatism/liberalism, and you'll find out how everyone else uses those terms, and why your definitions are not particularly useful.

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    42. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by bjdevil66 · · Score: 1

      It seems Democrats got blocked every time they tried something similar even if both parties thought it was a good idea.

      Both parties in the legislative branch have become political a-holes recently - stonewalling any progress that could be made. It's leading to cracks in the Constitutional foundation of our country in the form of an executive branch that is now just flat out to ignore standing laws signed by previous presidents - Dem or GOP:

      • Defense of Marriage Act - signed by Clinton
      • Welfare reform - signed by Clinton
      • Immigration laws - signed by Reagan

      We're facing a real crisis in the federal government, and people are arguing about stupid crap like how much money Mitt Romney made or Obama's misquoted verbal gaffes. There's no unified leadership coming from anyone... the polarized media, the president, Congress, etc. By default, we're forced to rely upon the Supreme Court to solve issues now... We're slowly becoming a nation with a bought and paid for president and legislature that are ruled by nine supreme judges? What are we - Iran?

    43. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by rrohbeck · · Score: 1

      You may want to check a physicists's view on energy instead of looking for pink unicorns (as conservatives and libertarians are wont to).
      http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/

    44. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by rrohbeck · · Score: 2

      And the only rational solution, which is why it's so violently opposed.

    45. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by phlinn · · Score: 1

      The republicans now are not the same people as the republicans then, both politicians and voting public. There is no particular reason to expect a party to be consistent on any given policy over time, especially when the policy in question is fundamentally incompatible with some basic claims of their party platform. Even the 90's proposal did not have widespread republican support.

      As for the "party of no" thing it's entirely made up by Democrat partisans. The very same data normally used to justify charges of obstructionism can also be used to claim the democrats just want to bypass debate and ram things through when they are in power. A cloture vote does not necessarily mean there was a filibuster.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    46. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by guises · · Score: 1

      We're facing a real crisis in the federal government, and people are arguing about stupid crap like how much money Mitt Romney made or Obama's misquoted verbal gaffes. There's no unified leadership coming from anyone... the polarized media, the president, Congress, etc. By default, we're forced to rely upon the Supreme Court to solve issues now...

      Now this just isn't true. Romney's alleged tax evasion is important and our leadership is designed to not be unified. Whether or not that's a good thing is debatable, competition does not produce an ideal result in every case. We're also not relying on the Supreme Court more than usual - they have always been an outlet for people who are unhappy with legislation passed by congress and their role now is no more than it has been since Marshall. Though you could make the argument that they've overstepped themselves a few too many times.

      What we've lost in recent years is a willingness to compromise. Our system does nothing to encourage this and what's kept us going up until this point is the recognition that endless bickering does not actually accomplish anything. This has changed: an absolutist stance is now considered by many people including, crucially, a large block of voters, to be an acceptable form of governance.

      A good governmental system should push legislators into accepting compromise, and that doesn't happen with only two effective political parties.

    47. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by dkleinsc · · Score: 1

      Here's the difference between cap-and-trade and regulation: Cap-and-trade says you have to not pollute more than your pollution credits allow, but doesn't tell you how to do it. By "regulation", I mean the EPA adding a rule like "All smokestacks will have scrubber devices that conform to standard EC3-B7" and sending inspectors out to enforce that.

      The difference between the two regimes is cap-and-trade doesn't mandate how you solve your pollution problem, just that you solve it.

      --
      I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
    48. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by guises · · Score: 1

      The point is that most of the arguments that people make against regulation (too much bureaucracy, too much overhead, barrier to entry, over complicated, etc.) don't apply to cap & trade, since companies are free to implement things in any way they'd like.

    49. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

      The conservatives of most other countries are at least as "green" as your Democrats.

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    50. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by mellon · · Score: 1

      How is it a wet statist dream? I mean yes, of course you have to have a state or some kind of tax authority to make it work. But aside from the tax collection and redistribution, it doesn't really float any bureaucrat's boat, because there's no bureaucracy to build. This is probably why it hasn't been enacted yet.

    51. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

      not even the most progressive American or European voter would be willing to make the kinds of sacrifices necessary to make meaningful reductions in carbon emissions

      Damn right. I want to know my electricity is coming from dirty, sooty coal. The thought of it coming from nuclear power plants and windmills would make me feel like a third-world slum-dweller. Every twisty bulb that replaces a heat-spewing incandescent is another piece of my accomplishments taken away. And the day that my car goes "weeng" instead of "vroom" is the day I know that I have truly hit rock-bottom.

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    52. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by bjdevil66 · · Score: 1

      ...Romney's alleged tax evasion is important...

      This alleged tax evasion charge was manufactured solely by Harry Reid, who said he was allegedly citing an unnamed "Bain investor". Not a Bain executive, or even a Bain employee - just an "investor". Think about that - How would THEY know what Romney paid in taxes? They wouldn't know any better than a big-time stock holder of Microsoft shares would know if Bill Gates had paid his taxes... Mitt Romney has asked him to cite his sources, and Reid has shrewdly said, "well, show us your tax returns." It's a 100% ridiculous and baseless accusation (that Sen. Reid shrewdly made on the Senate floor to protect him from libel/slander charges or lawsuits, BTW), but Harry has accomplished his goal as a Democrat: People are STILL talking about Romney's wealth and not other, more substantive issues.

      Seriously... This tax evasion charge is on the level of the Obama birth certificate conspiracy theories, and should be condemned as such. It's at least as laughable and unfounded. Yet it goes on and on, and the Obama administration is doing nothing to stop it, of course.

      With that said, I absolutely agree with the rest of your post.

    53. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

      If they put their money where their mouth is, they'll move or build themselves biodomes & AC-suits, and not complain about it one bit.

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
    54. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by sycodon · · Score: 1

      More nuclear power means less coal, oil and gas fired power plants, which means more electrically powered transportation and heating, which means less CO2.

      I'll cut you some slack because English appears to be your second language. Not that there's anything wrong with that. Seriously, I only know a little bit of German and would be lost there without all of you knowing some English.

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    55. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by NeutronCowboy · · Score: 1

      True - to some extent. Conservative and liberal are words that have been changed to almost mean anything, and can not really be pinned down to a simple definition. However, just as ridiculous as it is to label conservatives as statists for merely wanting to preserve the good ol' times, it is just as ridiculous to label liberals as statists for wanting to exert some control over the chaos that is human relationships. The main reason for my comment was just to demonstrate that purely from a dictionary perspective, statism is something that applies to conservatives more than to liberals.

      In short, if mods were paying attention, my post would be sitting at -1, Troll. Then again, the parent would be sitting there as well.

      --
      Those who can, do. Those who can't, sue.
    56. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Complete nonsense: speaking for myself and many others I know we've more than halved our carbon footprint

      It's not enough. We're at the point that to be safe, we need to stop adding CO2 to the environment, and actually remove it (do a search for 350ppm). So great, you've cut your carbon footprint in half, it's still too much. What else are you willing to do?

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    57. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      "block every Democrat proposal when they have the power, then campaign on the fact that the Dems didn't accomplish anything".

      It didn't occur to you that this is what adversarial parties do to each other? Democrats do the exact same thing to Republicans. It's a normal way for political parties to behave.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    58. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      If you think the reason few nuclear plants were built over the last 40 years was only because of liberal opposition you are wrong. A far stronger reason is that it was cheaper, faster and less risky to build coal plants or other energy sources. It's probably impossible to get a loan to build one without government guarantees. It's impossible to get private insurance for one leaving the government on the hook for any disasters. If nuclear energy had really made sense financially I doubt liberals would have been able to stand in the way.

    59. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      The simplest way to implement a carbon tax is to impose it as it comes out of the ground at the mine or well head or at the import point and just let the cost move up the supply chain to the end user. And I think a little should be withheld to fund research into reducing carbon output, maybe 2 or 3%. Finally it should start out low, barely noticeable, and grow a little each year until in 25 or 30 years it becomes expensive to give time for the needed new infrastructure to be built.

    60. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      If nuclear plants had made real financial sense in the face of cheaper, faster to build and less risky coal plants and other non-nuclear energy sources more of them would have been built. I doubt the litigators and regulators would have been able to stand in the way. As it stands now they can't be built without government loan guarantees and government provided catastrophic insurance coverage.

    61. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by DamonHD · · Score: 1

      We are slightly carbon-negative at home for energy and still dropping. I'm also reducing the footprint of my diet. I'm also putting solar PV up with my money as fast as I can (and I have probably eliminated my family's footprint entirely for the next 20 years) and I'm helping others do so too (eg working on community PV for my town) and indeed persuaded the Department of Energy and Climate Change to make the process a little easier for schools having had the Energy Secretary on the roof of ours to explain some of the issues. I'm also in the throes of getting 100 lofts of houses near to me properly insulated before winter. And I'm seeing if it is possible to organise switching thousands of people in my town to a greener energy supplier so that less of their bill will go to shareholders and more to building new green generation such as solar and wind. Amongst other things.

      So, I'm not sitting on my hands.

      Your turn?

      Rgds

      Damon

      --
      http://m.earth.org.uk/
    62. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      I'll go carbon neutral when we have electric cars. I don't drive much, but I'm not giving up that freedom.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    63. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by DamonHD · · Score: 1

      So you won't make any effort at all until then? Such as turning off lights and appliances when you're not using them?

      And what do you mean by "until we have"? They exist now.

      And what about finessing things as we have to avoid the need for a car in the first place?

      Rgds

      Damon

      --
      http://m.earth.org.uk/
    64. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      So you won't make any effort at all until then? Such as turning off lights and appliances when you're not using them?

      Sure, and I try not to waste water, also.

      And what do you mean by "until we have"? They exist now.

      They aren't practical. They are expensive and have limited range.

      And what about finessing things as we have to avoid the need for a car in the first place?

      Not going to happen in much of the US, things are spaced too far apart for public transportation to be practical. And unless traffic is really bad, then taking your own car is much more convenient.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    65. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by randyleepublic · · Score: 1

      The solution is simple: blanket the nation with breeder reactors. Duh!

      --
      Social Credit would solve everything...
    66. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by Magius_AR · · Score: 1

      Well there's a reason why people have taken to calling the Republicans "the party of No" - their strategy in the last few decades essentially seems to have been "block every Democrat proposal when they have the power, then campaign on the fact that the Dems didn't accomplish anything".

      Oh please, what would do if all your suggestions were summarily ignored and you were told to "just come along for the ride and sit in the back"? (i.e. you were just treated as some "observer" non-entity with no real voice?). Obama and the Democrats made this a partisan game right from the start. They didn't want compromise and reaching across the aisle...they wanted a rubber stamp on bills they wrote themselves behind closed doors. Only now that the composition of Congress has changed are they trying to be "reasonable" and "team players"

    67. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by Magius_AR · · Score: 1

      per capita emissions, in metric tons: USA - 17.5 china - 5.3 India - 1.5

      Those are inaccurate 2008 numbers. The correct numbers are here: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2012/trends-in-global-co2-emissions-2012-report

      USA 17.3
      China 7.2
      India 2ish?

      But more important is the trend. The US has lowered emissions 13-14% below its year 2000 peak and it continues to trend down. In the same time, China's has increased over 250% and it continues to trend up. China is easily projected to surpass the US in emissions per capita within the decade. Now tell me you're more concerned about the US.

    68. Re:Republicans are burning in the Hell they made by Magius_AR · · Score: 1

      Again, that's how it's used. Except perhaps in your own writings. Good for you, but epic fail on ignoring how everyone else is using it.

      lol, what a vivid imagination you have. And I suppose everyone clamoring for federal powers is really just eager for the return of Caesar? If you believe there's even the most remote chance that slavery would _ever_ return to this country, on _any_ level, you're an idiot -- and frankly, not worth talking to. You're like the mirror of the gun nut scared to death of any gun law whatsoever because it's really just a plot by the government to disarm the populace! Wake up and let go of the tinfoil hat.

  4. Before the trolls start by Kupfernigk · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Look at the abstract. This isn't arguing about the accuracy of fractional degree measurements at individual weather stations: it is about > 3 sigma events over >10% of the Earth's surface, quite large changes and exactly the kind of thing that would be expected if more energy was being added to the atmosphere. For years the climatologists have been trying to explain that adding energy doesn't simply make everything slightly warmer, but will have effects larger in one place and smaller in another. This study tends to bear that out and emphasises that the extremes are over large land masses - again as would be expected. I am rather glad I live close enough to the Atlantic to be affected by Atlantic weather patterns, but far enough that we rarely get the worst of the storms, even though I am going to have to put in extra soil drainage in October.

    --
    From scarped cliff or quarried stone she cries "A thousand types are gone, I care for nothing, no not one."
    1. Re:Before the trolls start by gl4ss · · Score: 1

      it argues that there were heatwaves in the past decade, which is easy to argue for. then it argues those heatwaves wouldn't have happened without human made greenhouse gases which is a bit harder to argue for as it's a "why" question and not just showing data from weather stations in excel.

      what I'm asking, where the fuck is this summers heatwaves? there hasn't been a single good heatwave in Finland all summer now.(just couple of days every now and then).

      --
      world was created 5 seconds before this post as it is.
    2. Re:Before the trolls start by Rei · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Strange your weather's not been warm. I live in Iceland and our summer has been crazy-warm and sunny, like 5C over average most days and almost no rain.

      Not that I'm complaining, mind you ;)

      --
      Sometimes I doubt your commitment to Sparkle Motion.
    3. Re:Before the trolls start by tbannist · · Score: 4, Informative

      what I'm asking, where the fuck is this summers heatwaves? there hasn't been a single good heatwave in Finland all summer now.(just couple of days every now and then).

      Well, unless the Arctic ice starts to recover, there's a pretty good chance that you won't be seeing many hot summers in Finland in the near future. The warming of the Arctic has weakened the air currents and made "blocking patterns" far more likely, those blocking patterns are keeping warm air over most of North America and preventing it from flowing east to Europe like it used to. The net result may be that some of Europe (particular the northern parts like Norway and Finland) will experience temperatures that are significantly below your previous normal temperatures while the southern parts experience temperatures significantly above normal.

      Oh, and it's so unlikely that the Arctic ice will recover, that the posters at Watts Up With That (WUWT), one of the big climate denial blogs, seems to have finally stopped predicting that the Arctic ice will recover "next year". It looks like seeing how very, very wrong they were in previous years has tempered their predictions a bit.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    4. Re:Before the trolls start by martin-boundary · · Score: 1

      it argues that there were heatwaves in the past decade, which is easy to argue for. then it argues those heatwaves wouldn't have happened without human made greenhouse gases which is a bit harder to argue for as it's a "why" question and not just showing data from weather stations in excel.

      That's not what the argument is. The argument is that there have always been heatwaves. In the last 10 years, they have been bigger. It's like if you look at a calm lake. The waves are very flat for a long time. Then in the last 10 minutes, you see rippling big waves. That's when you know something has changed. Its obvious.

      We know something has changed in climate since the 1980s. It's obvious.

      what I'm asking, where the fuck is this summers heatwaves?

      Follow the news, then you know where they are, and you can take your holidays there.

    5. Re:Before the trolls start by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      But your food and fuel costs will still increase. No man is an island.

    6. Re:Before the trolls start by mellon · · Score: 5, Informative

      (1) global warming isn't uniform
      (2) read the paper again—that's not what it says. It compares what was normal in the past to what is normal now, and shows that the statistical probability of such a change occurring due to random variation is too small to take seriously. It's actually a really good argument, unless you are determined that its conclusion is unacceptable.

    7. Re:Before the trolls start by mcvos · · Score: 2

      In Netherland the last couple of days have seen the most bizarre weather I've ever seen: hot sun shine alternated by short bursts of pouring rain, changing every couple of minutes. Never seen anything like it.

    8. Re:Before the trolls start by radtea · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Look at the abstract. This isn't arguing about the accuracy of fractional degree measurements at individual weather stations: it is about > 3 sigma events over >10% of the Earth's surface, quite large changes and exactly the kind of thing that would be expected if more energy was being added to the atmosphere.

      Exactly what you would expect on what basis? Climate models are notoriously inexact in their predictions, and lower-latitude effects of this magnitude have not to best of my knowledge been predicted in any detail by any strong GCM. The paper certainly doesn't cite any.

      What the paper does do is ask, "How can we maximally mix politics with science so that we can convince people the global climate change is real and that governments therefore must enact a bunch of policies that we are ideologically committed to regardless of the climate situation?"

      Every climate change denier is going to take this paper for exactly what it is: cherry picking data (the 1951-1981 baseline in particular) and special-pleading on hypotheses (assuming a Gaussian distribution of temperature anomalies over the long term) and invoking the author's favoured explanatory hypothesis for no other reason than it is their favoured explanatory hypothesis.

      There is no strong reason to expect that a 30-year baseline in the mid-20th century is in any way representative of normal climate variability over the past few thousand years, and many reasons to believe it is not. If you were to apply this baseline to the Little Ice Age or the Medieval Optimum you might equally well conclude that something was terribly amiss.

      There is no reason to assume that long-term climate variability has a Gaussian distribution. Climate is full of nonlinear effects and mode shifts independently of human activity. We can see these mode shifts clearly in the past climate record, often resulting in sudden changes in temperature in specific locales over very short timescales.

      There is REALLY no reason to assume that "simply because this is a larger change than we see in our 'natural' baseline it MUST be caused by humans." Anyone who accepts this argument should also accept the equally bogus arguments that if something is not explicable by current science it MUST be caused by God. This is purely religious thinking, in which the conceptual scheme of the reasoner is given vast and completely unjustified ontological weight.

      There is some good science in what the authors are doing in this paper, but their blatant, unabashed attempt to politicize the science from the word go does tremendous damage to the reputation and neutrality of science. They aren't making any kind of case for extreme climate change: they are simply assuming it and asking, "How can we convince people it's real?" That's not science. It's politics, and politics of a kind usually played by the other side in the climate change debate.

      --
      Blasphemy is a human right. Blasphemophobia kills.
    9. Re:Before the trolls start by c4tp · · Score: 1

      It's been the hottest and driest summer in my part of the world (middle of the U.S.) since the 1930s I think, following a very temperate winter.

      Therefore, this year I believe global warming is real. If it snows here in the coming winter we'll know if global warming stopped again. :)

    10. Re:Before the trolls start by Rei · · Score: 1

      Mix in some snow and hail at the same change interval, and you're describing an Icelandic spring ;)

      --
      Sometimes I doubt your commitment to Sparkle Motion.
    11. Re:Before the trolls start by mcvos · · Score: 1

      I think we did have some hail a month ago.

      So why am I getting an Icelandic spring in my Dutch summer?

    12. Re:Before the trolls start by CrimsonAvenger · · Score: 1

      In Netherland the last couple of days have seen the most bizarre weather I've ever seen: hot sun shine alternated by short bursts of pouring rain, changing every couple of minutes. Never seen anything like it.

      Sounds like a normal summer in N'Awlins...

      --

      "I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
    13. Re:Before the trolls start by mcgrew · · Score: 4, Informative

      where the fuck is this summers heatwaves?

      Most of the US. Springfield, IL had the hottest July on record, and more record breaking high temperatures this year than any other year. And we had an incredibly mild winter last winter, no sub-zero (farenheight) temperatures at all iirc and no snow to speak of, only an inch or two a few times.

      Here, this year is unlike any other in recorded history.

    14. Re:Before the trolls start by Jeremi · · Score: 1

      what I'm asking, where the fuck is this summers heatwaves? there hasn't been a single good heatwave in Finland all summer now.

      I think your heatwave may have got lost and ended up in Greenland.

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
    15. Re:Before the trolls start by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      Follow the news, then you know where they are, and you can take your holidays there.

      I doubt anybody would like to vacation anywhere that's having 39 C temperatures along with opressive humidity, like most of the US this summer. Especially when the tornados hit, those things are NASTY (I was in one in 2006).

    16. Re:Before the trolls start by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      I think "predicted" is too strong a word. His full statement was "At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions." He just said it could happen at the current rate, not that he thought it would.

    17. Re:Before the trolls start by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Even out in the Mojave Desert or Palm Springs? Here in Western Oregon we had our for 100F+ day since 2009 recently.

    18. Re:Before the trolls start by mdsolar · · Score: 1

      From the paper: "Winter trends in units of standard deviations are comparable to those in summer but tend to be smaller. Another factor making it difficult for the public to recognize global warming in winter, in addition to the large natural variability in winter (Fig. 2), is a tendency of the public to equate heavy snow- fall with harsh winter conditions, even if temperatures are not extremely low. Observations (14, 15) confirm expectations that a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, and thus warming may cause snowfall to increase in places that remain cool en- ough for snow."

      While it is true that heavier snow may be a consequence consequence of warming, the more noticeable thing is that the snow does not linger. Mountain now pack, for example, is melting early.

    19. Re:Before the trolls start by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      >>Here, this year is unlike any other in recorded history.

      Just to nitpick, while July was the hottest July in record, it only barely beat 1938 by a small fraction of a degree. It's like setting a world record in the Olympics by a fraction of a second.

      Our local temps here in California were not record setting, as the 1898 temperatures were still higher.

      So you have to look at it with a little bit of context.

  5. Ah, love that straw! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2

    Tell me, if these heatwaves were 1C cooler, would they be less of a severe heat wave or no different?

    1. Re:Ah, love that straw! by mcvos · · Score: 2

      Do you know the difference between averages and extremes?

  6. Personal attacks by benjfowler · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Wait for the dirty tricks and personal attacks to begin.

    The fossil fuel lobby won't take such a show of flagrant anti-rich, anti-1% dissent lying down.

    Like the poor fool who dares to step between the pigs and their swill, this fellow is gonna get mauled.

    1. Re:Personal attacks by GameboyRMH · · Score: 1

      Threefold? I've seen real-world numbers for 10% more for renewable electricity.

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
  7. But... by Elminster+Aumar · · Score: 2

    ...heaven forbid we actually do anything about it that's worth more than some blog post. It's like everything is in a bad dream anymore where you're watching yourself trying to run away from something but can't because for some reason, your legs just don't move as fast as they can.

  8. Eh. by JustAnotherIdiot · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The main thing is just to look at the statistics and see that the change is too large to be natural

    Don't underestimate nature, it has a habit of killing those that do.

    --
    What do I know, I'm just an idiot, right?
    1. Re:Eh. by Rei · · Score: 5, Funny

      Don't anthropomorphize nature, it hates it when you do that.

      --
      Sometimes I doubt your commitment to Sparkle Motion.
    2. Re:Eh. by KeensMustard · · Score: 1

      The main thing is just to look at the statistics and see that the change is too large to be natural

      Don't underestimate nature, it has a habit of killing those that do.

      Err - Are you seriously trying to tell us that the recent warming we have seen is natural?

      What is causing the warming?

      And what happened to the warming we should have seen from the measurably increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere?

    3. Re:Eh. by sociocapitalist · · Score: 1

      Don't anthropomorphize nature, she hates it when you do that.

      FTFY

      --
      blindly antisocialist = antisocial
    4. Re:Eh. by spidercoz · · Score: 2

      The variability of the Sun is about .1% over an 11 year cycle; insignificant and not enough to classify the Sun as a "variable" star, astronomically speaking. Good try though.

      --
      "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - Evelyn Beatrice Hall, re Voltaire
    5. Re:Eh. by mcgrew · · Score: 2

      Are you seriously trying to tell us that the recent warming we have seen is natural?

      Actually, since we are part and parcel of nature, cannot live without nature, and our actions affect nature, yes. Anthropological global warming is both our fault and natural. That doesn't mean we shouldn't change our ways.

      We are at the start of a massive exctinction event. How many species have either gone extinct or nearly so in the last hundred years compared to the thousand years before?

    6. Re:Eh. by KeensMustard · · Score: 1
      No.

      Recent rhetorical efforts to redefine the meaning of the word "natural" is just an attempt to legitimise our actions and excuse ourselves of our responsibility for those actions. It is a rhetoric that can be applied to any situation: It's in my nature to be angry, and other primates also commit murder -> murder is natural, so my murdering my wife is natural and therefore I shouldn't be punished for it.

      As rhetoric goes it is also a philosophical cul-de-sac. By saying that every effect is natural, there is nothing that is unnatural - the distinction becomes meaningless.

      I don't think we shoiuld accept this redefinition. We know it's root cause - it is the same lie as treating denial as scepticism, people redefining their illogic to attain legitimacy. Illegitimacy should be called out at source.

    7. Re:Eh. by KeensMustard · · Score: 1
      So the warming we have observed is caused by variations in the Sun's output?

      1. Provide your observational data related to the Sun's output highlighting in particular the required upward trend over a 100 year cycle (as observed from our earthbound observations of tropospheric temperature over the past century)

      2. Detail your hypothesis in relation to what happened to the wamring we should have seen (per Arrhenius) from increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, touching specifically on the counteracting effect, which according to your theory, must counteract the expected warming to the exact degree of warming due to solar output, while being orthagonal.

      Provide these as peer reviewed and published material.

      Thanks in advance.

    8. Re:Eh. by KeensMustard · · Score: 1

      I think anyone who says one way other the other with 100% certainty is full of shit.

      Well, here is a opportunity to drill down on who is bullshitting, so let's do that.

      I don't think there's enough data to say it's not natural, but I also don't think there's enough to say it's not our fault either.

      So there is data supporting the hypothesis of "natural causes"?

      Where is this data?

  9. I'm not bothered... by Jawju · · Score: 2

    In the end the planet will be a dry wasteland, but by the time I'm an old man, we'll be able to launch a probe that sends information about humanity amongst the stars - just at the same time I reawaken safe and well to find myself captain of a starship again. Plus I'll have learned how to play the flute - bonus!

    1. Re:I'm not bothered... by bwintx · · Score: 1

      Not to mention you'll also have learned to put your shoes away when your wife-in-the-dream tells you to do so.

      --
      Discussion System prefs link: http://slashdot.org/users.pl?op=editcomm
  10. Prepare for the future of tomorrow by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The only thing we normal people can do on an individual basis is try to live our lives in the most sustainable way possible. Of primary consideration is the location of where to live, as forest fires, flooding, drought, heat waves, and hurricanes are all increasing in magnitude. Sustainabble energy is important, as is renewable energy. Possessing a generator and solar array is essential, not only do they lower electricity bills, but they ensure life wil not be disrupted by outages. Similarly, storage and conservation of drinking water is also useful. Planting a decent size garden now days can save a family hundreds or even thousands dog dollars a year in food costs.

    If one lives in an urban environment (as a majority of humanity now do), live within your means and build up a saving account to deal with unforeseen incidences (disasters, outbreaks, ...anything goes these days!). It pays to be prepared, one cannot say they were not warned. No need to turn into a gun nut and go all survivalist stocking 10 years of food in ones basement, but we clearly need to reevaluate how we live on a daily basis.

    1. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by siddesu · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Sadly, the only sensible/rational thing to do is to maximize your own well-being. Since the world seems to be going to hell anyway, get what you can while you can. You won't be getting more of it when it is all gone.

    2. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by mellon · · Score: 4, Insightful

      That's _not_ the only thing we normal people can do. We can learn to reject propaganda. We can pay attention to who we elect, and judge them on the basis of what they do, not what they promise to do. And we can find fellow citizens who also want a better world, and debate with them. People will tell you that this can never happen, and this can never work, but it is the only way change ever happens in a society: from the bottom up. And it has happened many times before. Don't let the no-hopeniks convince you to give up.

      This is not to say that any of what you have said above is wrong—just that it's not the only thing you can do.

    3. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by siddesu · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Change is only possible if the costly behavior that leads to a better outcome can be enforced. If it cannot be, then the people who voluntarily adhere to a "sensible" behavior will lose out, and those who act irresponsibly will benefit. Hence, most people will engage in the "irresponsible" pattern, and the behavior of the "good" people will not have a significant impact.

    4. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by RoccamOccam · · Score: 2

      Given that Republicans (on average) are historically far more charitable (with their own money) than Democrats, I'm not sure how your statement follows.

    5. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by PopeRatzo · · Score: 2

      Sadly, the only sensible/rational thing to do is to maximize your own well-being. Since the world seems to be going to hell anyway, get what you can while you can.

      The best way to maximize your own well-being is to make sure the people around you are doing well.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    6. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      . Hence, most people will engage in the "irresponsible" pattern, and the behavior of the "good" people will not have a significant impact.

      It appears that most people who espouse Ayn Rand's philosophies have little experience with "good behavior" but have the most to say about it.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    7. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by dcherryholmes · · Score: 1

      The parent is accurate because the attributed Republican view is myopic. Conservatives are, well, conservative. We evolved in small groups of 50 - 100 people. The idea of any kind of genuine concern for broad swaths like "society" is evolutionarily novel. Nonetheless, in the world we live in, it is probably a necessary adaptation. Republican propensity for charity to small groups of their choosing is consistent with our behavior over hundreds of thousands of years, though.

    8. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by siddesu · · Score: 2

      Why water down the discussion by dragging a rather poor science fiction writer into it?

    9. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by siddesu · · Score: 2

      Depends on your assumptions. There are number of scenarios under which this is plainly wrong.

    10. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by RoccamOccam · · Score: 1

      But they aren't just charitable to "small groups". Again, Republicans are demonstrably more charitable toward other nations that have experienced disasters (such as Haiti). Face it, the original remark was simply mean-spirited and baseless.

    11. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by dcherryholmes · · Score: 1

      Perhaps the "*to* small groups" is not quite accurate, but there is still a mechanism of choice and control which seems to be absolutely essential to them. Contrast with chipping your bit of tax money into a vast pile and trusting some democratic institution to operate on a scale far vaster than what individuals and small groups can accomplish. I'm not particularly trying to paint Republicans as meanies, but the question of evolutionary adaptation and how that relates to, broadly, conservative and progressive sensibilities does interest me.

    12. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      Your attitude is what causes the problem in the first place. Actually, your attitude is the cause of most human suffering.

    13. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by siddesu · · Score: 1

      How so?

    14. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by RoccamOccam · · Score: 1

      I appreciate your tone. However, again there is some mis-characterization. Republicans don't seem to be opposed to "chipping" into a very large pool that is controlled by someone else. Obviously, they do it all of the time (e.g., Roman Catholic Church or the United Way). Perhaps, there is something to your argument about evolutionary adaptation; however, I tend to think that it is a justifiable belief that locality of control should be as small as practical. It is one of the founding principles of the United States.

      I don't see much difference between the Democrats and Republicans in their personal desire to pay "high" taxes. I do, however, see quite a bit of difference in the eagerness to force others to pay higher taxes.

    15. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by sycodon · · Score: 1

      The problem is that when you give money to the government like that, the effectiveness plummets. Far less money actually makes it to the individual or program due to bureaucratic overhead (or is hijacked altogether).

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    16. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by Jeremi · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The problem is that when you give money to the government like that, the effectiveness plummets.

      No. Giving money to an ineffective government causes effectiveness to plummet. The correct lesson to draw from that is not "never give money to the government", however, but rather, "make sure your government is effective". I think that is the nuance that Republicans miss when they decide to drown everything in the bathtub.

      There are some things (like selling autos and consumer electronics) that private industry is better at, and other things (like basic research, the military, and health care) that government is better at. We should use the best tool for the job in each case.

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
    17. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by sycodon · · Score: 1

      "make sure your government is effective"

      Ahhahahahahaha..

      Good fucking luck with that.

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    18. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by jovius · · Score: 1

      That's really not true. You'd not get much (there'd always be something more to attain) and you'd be enslaved to the providers of your well-being. Your notion is flawed and it's based on the illusionary concepts of the human reality. Acting as you said would not make you feel safer or well (in a 100% competitive world for getting what you can). You'd end up running a treadmill of your illusionary world where having or getting something more makes you happier. That's actually quite tragic.

      If everybody acted that way then the services would completely cease to exist. The plus side is, that in the end we'd be living on what we can get, but it would not be much. That would be the real learning experience.

    19. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 1
      --
      My God, it's Full of Source!
      OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
    20. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by siddesu · · Score: 1

      And how am I at fault for pointing out the obvious?

    21. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by Jeremi · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Here's the problem with cheap cynicism: eventually it becomes self-fulfilling. People who don't demand good government won't expect to get it, and when they don't get it they won't punish those who failed to deliver it.

      Lazy politicians will take advantage of this because it's always easier to lower people's expectations than to actually deliver results. Left unchecked, that leads to a downward spiral (poor results -> apathy -> corruption -> poorer results), examples of which can be seen in any number of countries. It's not inevitable, however -- it's a choice the country's people make, regarding what levels of performance they will or will not put up with. America didn't go to the moon, or win WW2 or the cold war on the strength of cynicism -- and if those days are behind us now, it's because we chose that path.

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
    22. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by siddesu · · Score: 2

      and it's based on the illusionary concepts of the human reality

      What other "illusionary concepts" besides reality should I be aware of?

    23. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by RoccamOccam · · Score: 1

      ... and other things ( ... the military ...) that government is better at. We should use the best tool for the job in each case.

      It sounds like you don't think that Republicans would tend to agree with that part of your statement. Since that was considered a legitimate function of the Federal government at its founding, I doubt that many Republicans would disagree with you on that part.

    24. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by danceswithtrees · · Score: 2

      When I see thinking like this, it makes me truly sad. I am torn between thinking you are a rational actor and a self centered dipshit. I think about the tragedy of the commons (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons). The rational thing to do is to grab everything you can-- the inevitable end is total devastation.

      If you grow bacteria on a petri dish, they will grow until nutrients are depleted and waste products accumulate-- then they die. A few centuries ago, the earth was in a self sustaining state. Population growth was kept in check by our ability to get enough food and calories. Starting with the industrial revolution we are now able harness the energy stored over millions of years (petroleum hydrocarbons) to push mountains, harvest the desert, build skyscrapers, send robots to Mars-- truly awe inspiring achievements. Now population growth is not food/calorie limited-- I can take $3, head down to the corner 7/11 and get more calories than are good for me.

      I worry that humans have "evolved" such that they are now able to replay the tragedy of the commons on a global scale. I think that if we as a global community can't come together to solve these issues then we deserve what we get. What makes me very pessimistic about the future is that deep down inside, I think you are both a rational actor and a total dipshit.

    25. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by rrohbeck · · Score: 1

      Mod parent up. That's exactly the problem.

    26. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by marcosdumay · · Score: 1

      I think that if we as a global community can't come together to solve these issues then we deserve what we get.

      Don't mind. The current style of madness has at most 50 years left, with ever decresing intensity starting any day now. It may be enough to turn the planet into a hell, but not enough to wipe our race from it.

    27. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by jovius · · Score: 1

      You are mixing reality with what we have made it to be. I doubt you would for example complain in living in a reality where nature is respected, emission balance is neutral and energy is recycled. If you think that's impossible you are living in a cage. If your well-being is dependent on some people's efforts to better this reality while you are only eating the ready cake then you are an addicted parasite. It's rather unreasonable to be controlled by your needs in a world where you are not part of the supply. I understand if you feel like not being able to do anything but save yourself; it's quite a mess.

    28. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by guises · · Score: 1

      That was well said.

    29. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 1

      And how am I at fault for pointing out the obvious?

      You're arguing that the world's going to hell, so everybody should engage in the behaviors that are causing the world to go to hell.

      That doesn't seem like a problem?

      --
      My God, it's Full of Source!
      OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
    30. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      . There are number of scenarios under which this is plainly wrong.

      That's true. The scenario I'm referencing is a human being in a family, inside of a neighborhood, inside of a community, inside of a nation, on a world.

      Unfortunately, it's just not practical to collect all the data that's necessary to make a decision, so people make principles for themselves to live by. My father lived by the principle that the best thing you can do for yourself is make sure the people around you are doing well. This was also his father's principle, which served him well during the Depression as it served my father in WWII as it has served me well so far in my half-century plus. Maybe it'll all change tomorrow, but today I try to live by that principle. For me, it starts with "happy wife, happy life". Then to my daughter, then to my extended family, then to my neighborhood, etc.

      If stuff ever really goes sideways, I find more value in being seen as the guy who helps instead of the guy who's a real selfish jerk.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    31. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      I think that is the nuance that Republicans miss when they decide to drown everything in the bathtub.

      They didn't miss it, they just don't like the vast majority of government programs. Do you think Ron Paul cares if the EPA is effective? No, he doesn't feel it is necessary, he wants to get rid of it even if it does a good job.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    32. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      How is it then that Social Security and Medicare operate on less than 5% overhead? That's far better than most private entities.

    33. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      That's what bothers me about all the politicians (mostly on the right side of the ledger) saying that government is the problem and can never be effective. If we then put them in office how can we expect they would even try to improve it rather than just trying to get as much personally as they can out of it?

    34. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Commonly known as The tragedy of the commons.

    35. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Economic cataclysm is only assured if we have no alternatives to the current economic paradigm. Clearly this is not the case. I've seen a number of economic studies that say it would only take about 3% of GDP to effectively respond the the threat of global warming. That doesn't sound cataclysmic to me.

    36. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      As John Donne said, no man is an island. Your well being is dependent on the well being of those around you. As much as your own efforts got you where you are today you got a lot of help along the way and you are still dependent on the society around you to maintain and advance your lifestyle.

    37. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1

      Only because irresponsible behaviour tends to transfer the cost to other people. Pollution is the classic example, and the fix is to simply charge the people behaving badly at least the cost of cleaning up, if not a hefty surcharge to discourage them from doing it again.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    38. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by siddesu · · Score: 1

      "Only because" is a pretty hairy problem. The people who get ahead will have both an incentive and resources to cheat even more, and engage in all sorts of political and other activities to block a "fix". I'm sure you can provide some examples yourself.

    39. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by Magius_AR · · Score: 1

      Here's the problem with cheap cynicism: eventually it becomes self-fulfilling.

      No, it simply _is_. The history of many many MANY countries speaks as to the inefficiencies and corruptions of large empires with power focused at the top. I have no intention of being doomed to repeat it. Smaller government is the answer.

      People who don't demand good government won't expect to get it, and when they don't get it they won't punish those who failed to deliver it.

      We DO demand better government, and we DO vote them out (see the Democrat turnover in 2007-2011 followed by the Republican turnover in 2012). The problem is that all the incomers are JUST AS BAD as the ones we voted out. And everyone is too chicken shit to vote for a third party that they'd rather vote in the guy that's gonna ass-rape them WITH a reacharound rather than the guy who is going to ass-rape them without one.

    40. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by Magius_AR · · Score: 1

      How is it then that Social Security and Medicare operate on less than 5% overhead? That's far better than most private entities.

      You apparently aren't counting fraud (http://www.forbes.com/sites/merrillmatthews/2012/05/31/medicare-and-medicaid-fraud-is-costing-taxpayers-billions/) or effectiveness, which is even more important than overhead. I can shovel hundred dollar bills into a furnace pretty efficiently. It doesn't make it the best course of action.

    41. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by Magius_AR · · Score: 1

      Economic cataclysm is only assured if we have no alternatives to the current economic paradigm. Clearly this is not the case. I've seen a number of economic studies that say it would only take about 3% of GDP to effectively respond the the threat of global warming. That doesn't sound cataclysmic to me.

      GDP is 15 trillion -- 3% of that is 450 billion dollars. That's a drop in the bucket! Hell, just look at Germany -- they're spending more than half of that IN ONE YEAR (http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-03-20/europe/31213044_1_renewable-energy-wind-farms-power-lines), 8% of their GDP, and they won't have 35% of their power from renewables until 2030 (which is probably a friendly lowball estimate), and they're only a fourth the size of the US.

      I don't know where you get your numbers, but they're whack. It would cost trillions to put a dent in emissions, and even then I'm not sure if would be significant enough according to the projections.

    42. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      When you consider how much is spent on alternative energy sources you have to subtract the amount that would have been spent on conventional energy sources to produce that power. It's the difference between the two that is the extra cost.

    43. Re:Prepare for the future of tomorrow by Magius_AR · · Score: 1

      I'll believe those numbers when I see them.

  11. Re:Hansen is delusional by Coriolis · · Score: 5, Informative

    I'm not assuming Hansen is correct, but your analysis is flawed. You are comparing studies of local conditions with a study of global conditions. Just because a single heat wave is not anomalous locally, it does not mean that a series of distributed heat waves is not anomalous globally. In case that's not clear, consider an extreme example : A hurricane in Florida in a year is not anomalous. Each major coastal city in the world being hit by a hurricane in the same year would be.

    --
    Rgasuya aata! : I have been coding Perl and cannot tell where my fingers are now!
  12. Here's a heatwave graphic that includes the 1930's by BobK65 · · Score: 1

    You'll notice Hansen carefully avoids talking about the 1930's. The EPA has a heatwave graphic which goes back to the turn of the last century. If Hansen wants to claim it is due to co2 then there must have been one hell of a co2 bubble sitting stationary over the US for most of the 1930's. http://epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/weather-climate/heat-waves.html

  13. Re:could there possibly be a bigger load of bullsh by hey! · · Score: 1

    Thanks for analyzing that paper's scientific value for me without actually reading it.

    --
    Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
  14. Re:could there possibly be a bigger load of bullsh by kayditty · · Score: 1

    I didn't do anything for you. read it if you want to? it has no "scientific" value, because it's not science. I don't need to read something like that. I don't read Harry Potter, either.

  15. Re:Here's a heatwave graphic that includes the 193 by Mashiki · · Score: 1

    Did he skip the one in 1988 too? Yep looks like he did.

    --
    Om, nomnomnom...
  16. Moderation by DeathToBill · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Someone needs to take a long, hard look at the moderation of climate threads on /. Quoting from the moderation guidelines:

    Try to be impartial about this. Simply disagreeing with a comment is not a valid reason to mark it down.

    I'm not taking sides either way in the climate debate; I'm saying that sceptics are moderated down because the moderators disagree with their point of view. At least one comment here already has the score '0 Flamebait' when I'm pretty sure the author of that comment posted what he posted because he honestly believes it, not because he's trying to stir up a flame war. Another comment is titled, 'Before the trolls start...', immediately branding anyone who disagrees with the author as a troll. They're not, they just disagree with you. Build a bridge and get over it.

    --
    Slashdot - News for Nerds, Stuff that Matters, in ISO-8859-1 Has just realised that beta makes this signature redundant
    1. Re:Moderation by dbIII · · Score: 1

      It happens with each climate story even with fairly innocuous comments being marked down. I think is yet another annoying example of paid astroturfers infesting the place due to the scale of it each time.

    2. Re:Moderation by Anne_Nonymous · · Score: 2

      Statistical analysis reveals that flame wars are what's really heating up the planet.

    3. Re:Moderation by tp1024 · · Score: 1

      Before blaming paid astroturfers, remember that it takes all of 5 people to mod a comment from +5 insightful to -1 troll. That's not a lot, especially in a quasi-religious issue such as global warming.

    4. Re:Moderation by Colonel+Korn · · Score: 1

      Someone needs to take a long, hard look at the moderation of climate threads on /. Quoting from the moderation guidelines:

      Try to be impartial about this. Simply disagreeing with a comment is not a valid reason to mark it down.

      I'm not taking sides either way in the climate debate; I'm saying that sceptics are moderated down because the moderators disagree with their point of view. At least one comment here already has the score '0 Flamebait' when I'm pretty sure the author of that comment posted what he posted because he honestly believes it, not because he's trying to stir up a flame war. Another comment is titled, 'Before the trolls start...', immediately branding anyone who disagrees with the author as a troll. They're not, they just disagree with you. Build a bridge and get over it.

      The currently comment distribution with a score over 2 are weighted heavily toward comments that deny climate change. I agree with your statement, but I think that the majority of bias here is in the other direction.

      --
      "I zero-index my hamsters" - Willtor (147206)
    5. Re:Moderation by spidercoz · · Score: 1

      I'm not taking sides either way in the climate debate; I'm saying that sceptics are moderated down because the moderators disagree with their point of view.

      There are no sides to take, this isn't an argument. The evidence is there, mounting by the truckload. Those who choose to deny that evidence at this point are akin to denying that nighttime is dark and should be treated accordingly.

      --
      "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - Evelyn Beatrice Hall, re Voltaire
    6. Re:Moderation by GauteL · · Score: 4, Insightful

      "I'm saying that sceptics are moderated down because the moderators disagree with their point of view"

      No. They are modded down because they argue against evidence without bringing evidence of their own to the table. An argument with evidence is informative. An argument without evidence is at best uninteresting in the context of global warming, and at worst trolling.

    7. Re:Moderation by rrohbeck · · Score: 1

      That's mutual. Pro-AGW posts often get modded down for no reason too.

    8. Re:Moderation by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      Speaking of the /.FAQ, I wish you would have made your comment as a response to the -1 flamebait post, or linked to the comment. It would have made that post less invisible and easier for us to see if there was anything flambaitish about it.

    9. Re:Moderation by dbIII · · Score: 1

      Since quite a few astroturfers were exposed, we know they are here, and there appears to be some sort of co-ordination it's beginning to look very likely.
      It's not just the extreme posts that get modded down, which is what you'd expect from individuals, but also some of the very mild posts that just happen to be in the same thread, which makes it look like a team effort. A single moderater can't bury anything other than a very short thread on their own.
      That's the major difference that is apparent between what happens to comments now and the same sort of article two or three years ago when there would have been about the same number of moderators feeling strongly about the issue.

    10. Re:Moderation by Raenex · · Score: 1

      No. They are modded down because they argue against evidence without bringing evidence of their own to the table.

      What a load of horseshit. All kinds of tripe gets upmodded if it agrees with the prevailing hivemind, while even informed dissent will be modded down. That's the way it goes on Slashdot when groupthink is in play.

  17. Re:Hansen is delusional by Mashiki · · Score: 1

    I'll be happy to drop $20 on the table, that this will also be a "local anomaly" and will be pointed out as such in about 2-3 years time. As much as the "spring anomaly" here in the NE Canada and US earlier in the year, where it was unseasonably warm, but it was frigid as hell everywhere else.

    --
    Om, nomnomnom...
  18. Re:Hansen is delusional by docmordin · · Score: 5, Informative

    Another paper, published in the same journal, concluded that "the heat wave falls within the realm of natural variability ... [and] appears not to be the product of long-term climate changes"

    That quote neither appears in the paper you reference (M. Matsueda, "Predictability of Euro-Russian blocking in summer of 2010", Geophys. Res. Lett. 38: L06801, 2011) nor the NOAA press release.

    Also, some researchers in Germany analyzed the data and published a paper, entitled "Large scale flow and the long-lasting blocking high over Russia", which says that the heat wave "appears as a result of natural atmospheric variability".

    The quote taken from (the abstract of) that paper, by Schneidereit et al., was in reference to R. Dole, et al. ("Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave", Geophys. Res. Lett. 38: L06702, 2011). Schneidereit et al. also mentioned, citing a study by Schar et al. ("The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves", Nature 427: 332-336, 2004), that a long-lasting blocking high could occur more often with climate change and the expected change in the year-to-year variability.

  19. Marble bar wasn't a heatwave by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Read the original link, it's not a 164 day heat wave, it's 164 days of temperature above 100F, which the article you linked to then claims is a heat wave. Which of course it isn't since Marble bar is damn hot normally:
    http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/temp1.htm

    "The world record for the longest sequence of days above 100Fahrenheit (or 37.8 on the Celsius scale) is held by Marble Bar in the inland Pilbara district of Western Australia. "

    It's normal for Marble Bar:
    "Temperatures above 100F are common in Marble Bar and indeed throughout a wide area of northwestern Australia. On average, Marble Bar experiences about 154 such days each year. "

    So you're attempting to mislead. Which is why we have peer reviewed science. This is peer reviewed, Weatherman's claims aren't, indeed they were debunked many times in several different ways, and he simply repeats them to mislead.

  20. 1980 by BinBoy · · Score: 1

    What happened in 1980 to cause the climate to change?

    1. Re:1980 by tekrat · · Score: 1

      Reagan.

      --
      If telephones are outlawed, then only outlaws will have telephones.
  21. Re:Hansen is delusional by tbannist · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I don't think you either read or understood Hansen's paper. The argument isn't that these events are individually impossible to occur. They all fall within the bounds of possibility for the baseline climate of 1951-1980. The argument put forward in the paper is that together they are each "once in a century" events, which means we should not get 3 of them in less than a single decade. The reason we do get them is because global warming is "weighting the dice", changing the probability distribution so that once in a century hot events occur once a decade on average, and once in century cold events occur once in a millennia. That's a rough description of the paper, you really should read the original.

    In short, the claim about Russia is false. The claim about the European summer of 2003 is also debunked. (I am not familiar with Texas.)

    Sorry, but the evidence you cited doesn't actually conflict with Hansen's paper. Each of the papers claim the events were "low predictability" events. Additionally, there's new research which contradicts the papers you cited that you cited, and points towards Arctic sea ice loss (driven by global warming) as the reason for the "low predictability" of those events.

    And why does Hansen not mention extreme cold recently in Alaska?—is that also due to global warming?

    Actually, it is. The same block pattern that's been keeping warm air (and record high temperatures) over much of the U.S. is keeping cold air (and cold temperatures) over Alaska. The ice loss appears to have weakened the air currents that would normally break up the blocking patterns.

    Bad weather has always existed.

    Indeed it has, however, Hansen's paper says the bad weather is biased hot now. It's like taking a 6 sided die, and changing the 1 to a 7. You won't get the same results you used to get.

    --
    Fanatically anti-fanatical
  22. peer reviewed? by kenorland · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Hansen is a PNAS member, meaning he can either skip peer review entirely or pick his reviewers. Even if the review process had been rigorous, peer review guarantees nothing about the correctness of a paper. Peer review simply means that the paper passes basic quality standards and editorial policies for the publication in question. If you want to judge by external factors, none of the authors are statisticians, so their statements about statistical anomalies amount to little more than opinion.

    I don't know whether the hot summers have been due to global warming; I tend to believe so. But to claim that as a fact, I'd certainly like a valid statistical analysis from someone qualified to make such an analysis, not from a climate hack like Hansen.

    1. Re:peer reviewed? by phantomfive · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You can look at the statistical choices made right here, in the full paper. It's great that he published it in an open place.

      I can see a few places with potential for error:

      *) The period chosen is very short. Going from 1950 to present isn't a very long time for measuring, especially when you divide it into two pieces.
      *) Given a small enough piece of data, it's easy to divide it and find trends that show your point. You see AGW opponents do this a lot by saying "It's actually cooled since 1997." It's 100% true, but doesn't matter. I'm not saying Hansen has done this, but it's an easy trap to fall into (even accidentally) and should be checked.
      *) The method of defining 'extreme' can make a huge difference in a paper like this.
      *) Even if the first statistical analysis is correct, it's a jump to say that Moscow 2010 heatwave was caused by CO2. They'll need to back that up.
      *) If the Watts study proves to be correct, that could invalidate this entire paper (statistics performed with poor data = garbage)

      And now I'm off to read the paper.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  23. Limited data set by nten · · Score: 2

    Finally someone that points out this is about the change in temperature *variance* (square root of variance rather), and not the change in temperature mean. Sigma-dot as it were. The plot of the sigma over the last six decades showed a clear trend that the temperature became more varied in that time. Six decades is nothing in climate terms though. I read the argument on why 1951-1980 was used as the baseline, its mean was near the overall holocene mean, and the mean wasn't changing much during those three decades, but that is still just too little data to base such a strong conclusion on. A similar study could be conducted with indirect measures (ice cores, tree rings, permafrost bands, or who knows what), and we could ascertain the previous "sigma-dot" maximums. Using a second order statistic was a good idea and I suspect that if the variance isn't simply tied to the mean (the plots kind of look like that), that he is on to something, but only grabbing a handful of data points in extremely close time proximity and then drawing a conclusion from them is overreaching.

    --
    refactor the law, its bloated, confusing and unmaintainable.
    1. Re:Limited data set by mdsolar · · Score: 1

      Taking a thirty year period is standard.

  24. Re:Hansen is delusional by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    I remember once attending a presentation of a climate scientist and he explained that "global warming" is actually more akin to "global weather chaos" because the warming of the planet will throw all the known weather patterns into complete chaos. This means that one year -local- weather can be very hot / dry, but the next it can be very cold / wet. In the mean time the temperature rises globally. The horror scenario would be that it would be almost impossible to produce enough food for the world population because of changing weather patterns and farmland being unusable because of floods or drought.
    Just because it was cold or warm in one place proves nothing.
    I remember a couple of years ago when the weather wasn't as hot in the US that everybody was like "see, global warming isn't real" yet at the same time they had high temperature records in the Philippines (among other places).
    People tend to believe in global warming more in the summer than in the winter apparently. Which just shows how little people understand the theory.

  25. I assume... by bbbaldie · · Score: 2
    ...that Mr. Hansen has hard evidence that actual percentages of CO2, methane, and other greenhouse gases have increased in the atmosphere? I'm not talking about cojncidentally matching the industrial revolution, I'm talking about hard evidence of percentages of these gases in the atmosphere say, 50 years ago compared to today. Because in all of the hyperbole, yelling, threatening, and name calling, I have yet to see those figures. That is what it would take to convince this particular individual that rising atmospheric temperatures are related to greenhouse gases.

    Please, no accusations of being a right-wing nut. I just don't jump on any bandwagons until I'm sure of the facts.

    1. Re:I assume... by jcupitt65 · · Score: 4, Informative

      The Mauna Loa CO2 record goes back 50 years:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mauna_Loa_Carbon_Dioxide.png

      Obviously that's CO2 at a particular spot on the planet --- there are plenty of other records though. Here's a great animation from NOAA showing global CO2 distribution and putting recent changes in the context of the last million years or so. It takes a few minutes to watch, but it's worth seeing to the end, in my opinion.

      http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/history.html

    2. Re:I assume... by bbbaldie · · Score: 1
      I thank you. All of the dumbassed liberal vs. republican sanctimonious nonsense (extremely evident in this very discussion) wiped out with a simple animated chart from an impartial source. You have done what Al Gore and Michael Moore (speaking of a pair of sanctimonious assholes) have failed to do: convince me that there is hard evidence of greenhouse gases increasing in recent times.

      Thank you again. :-)

    3. Re:I assume... by jcupitt65 · · Score: 1

      I agree, I hate the politicisation of science. Seeing bitter, politically-motivated attacks on hard-working scientists is especially sad.

      I'd like to see the discussion split into "what's going on and what's likely to happen next" (the domain of science) and "what (if anything) should we do about it?" (the domain of politics and elected government).

      One can dream!

    4. Re:I assume... by spidercoz · · Score: 1

      And thank you for being a rational human being.

      --
      "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - Evelyn Beatrice Hall, re Voltaire
    5. Re:I assume... by bbbaldie · · Score: 1
      You're welcome, same to you. What the hell are we doing on Slashdot???

      ;-)

    6. Re:I assume... by spidercoz · · Score: 1

      lol, I ask myself that question every day...

      --
      "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - Evelyn Beatrice Hall, re Voltaire
    7. Re:I assume... by doconnor · · Score: 1

      The increase in Carbon Dioxide and this chart is covered in a fair amount of detail in Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth.

      The reason that this isn't talk about much is the evidence of the dramatic increase in Carbon Dioxide in recent decades is so clear, even deniers don't reject it.

    8. Re:I assume... by mdsolar · · Score: 1

      Hmm.... That is not really what this paper is about. It is an empirical paper about temperature. Some of Hansen's earlier work covers what interests you.

  26. Re:Look at the data - US temp records by state: by Captain.Abrecan · · Score: 1

    This isn't about temperature. Global warming never was about temperature, that is a red herring. Global warming causes adverse severe weather patterns, which is exactly what we are experiencing. Adding energy to the system changes weather all over the place, moves jet streams, introduces blocking patterns, creates droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, ice storms. These are all things that are happening in areas that do not usually experience these conditions and energy, recently and frequently. Global warming is not about temperature.

  27. Challange by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Humans do contribute to the problem, but most of the issue is natural.

  28. who created that hell again? by kenorland · · Score: 1

    In fact, most of the carbon in the atmosphere comes from Europe and China, and within the US, most of it comes from the big, industrialized areas controlled by Democrats. So, actually, in your way of looking at it, Republicans are burning in the hell created by Europeans, Chinese, and Democrats. Republicans would also have welcomed greater use of nuclear energy.

    But, hey, it is of course the Republicans' fault if they don't stop you from emitting so much carbon (or eating so much or whatever other bad habits you may have).

    1. Re:who created that hell again? by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      And most of those industries are owned and run by Republicans. I guess they put their plants there because they hate Democrats.

    2. Re:who created that hell again? by kenorland · · Score: 1

      Most of the carbon that is in the atmosphere right now was emitted by Europeans, and the biggest emitter today is China. So by what criterion do you hold the US as primarily responsible for the state of the atmosphere?

      But, yeah, keep trying to shift blame. Why can't the rest of the world be as perfect as the Germans, right? "Am deutschen Wesen mag die Welt genesen"?

    3. Re:who created that hell again? by kenorland · · Score: 1

      What difference does it make who owns those industries? The question is whether Democratic voters put their money where their mouth is. Do they voluntarily reduce their carbon footprint significantly? Apparently not. Do they kick out or regulate industries that emit a lot of carbon? No, they don't do that either because they want the jobs. They just keep consuming and burning oil like everybody else. And Obama really has been the hypocrite in chief when he handed nearly a hundred billion dollars in tax payer money to GM... so that the company can keep dumping inefficient cars on the US market.

  29. Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    I'm posting this AC, because even mildly questioning GW dogma on /. is a sure way to drain your karma into oblivion (the last time I did, I got modded down from excellent karma to poor--for just TWO posts MILDLY questioning GW).

    Anyway, AFAICT, the GW hardcores seem to have developed a bulletproof form of "science" where their model CANNOT, by its nature, be disproved. Why? Because all contradictory evidence has been appropriated into the model in such a way that it is impossible to cite any weather pattern or trend that contradicts it.

    Is there a heat wave? That's global warming. Cold wave? That's produced by the extremes caused by global warming. Mild wave? Well, that just shows that climate is bigger than individual weather patterns. Tornados, hurricanes, etc.? Global warming. Lack of tornados, hurricanes? Again, individual weather patterns don't contradict global warming.

    See what I mean?

    The extremes of GW to me look more like a religion now than a science. I've seen religions create this same sort of bulletproof cage around themselves. But that is NOT what science is supposed to be about. Science is supposed to be about accepting the possibility that evidence could one day overturn your particular theory or model. Even greats like Newton had to face that (though he didn't live to see it). It's not supposed to be about millenialist/apocalyptic fear-mongering, religious dogma, or viciously attacking everyone who dares question your hypothesis as an unbeliever who should be excommunicated.

    Again, posting AC so as to avoid excommunication.

    1. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by NeutronCowboy · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Because all contradictory evidence has been appropriated into the model in such a way that it is impossible to cite any weather pattern or trend that contradicts it.

      I suspect you were modded into oblivion because you don't understand the difference between climate and weather, data and anecdote, and continuously refining a model to fit new data and making shit up.

      And that's just from one sentence.

      --
      Those who can, do. Those who can't, sue.
    2. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by jkflying · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Explaining things in terms of physics is not denying evidence. You obviously didn't understand the basic concept of global warming beyond the name. Increased temperatures, on average, doesn't mean everywhere increases uniformly. It means there is more thermal energy in the atmosphere, making stronger hurricanes, stronger heat waves, stronger storms.

      It's a bit like taking a pool and having more people swim in it. Sure, the pool will be slightly fuller, on average, due to the displacement, but it will also have more waves and more of the water will then splash over the sides. Of course, sometimes, at certain locations, the water will be lower due to troughs in between the wave peaks. If you're trying to live your life on the edge of the pool, having exactly the right number of people in the pool will make sure you get exactly the right amount of splashing for watering your crops, but not so much as to have your house washed away. However, if your way of life involves breeding new people to throw into the pool and swim, it's not that hard to realise that eventually your way of life will have to change. In this analogy, the name to the phenomenon would be called "Pool Filling", and that the people we are throwing into the pool to swim are just going to sit there or get out is the assumption you are making. Global warming denialists are saying "But at my edge of the pool, right now the water is *lower* than it was, so it must be false", and you are believing them.

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    3. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by jkflying · · Score: 1

      Taken with a few other things, such as the arctic staying frozen for longer and glaciers growing, yes, I would take it as evidence against global warming. I'd be very happy if it wasn't a problem. Unfortunately, there are a whole slew of conditions which point in the "yes there is global warming" direction, so I think we should get our heads out of the sand while we still have a chance of doing something about it.

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    4. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by mbone · · Score: 1

      Actually, you're entirely wrong here. More thermal energy in the atmosphere presuming it is a result of the gasses trapping the heat actually means a *more uniform* temperature around the globe, NOT LESS. A more uniform air temperature means WEAKER storms from smaller pressure differentials, WEAKER hurricanes, and WEAKER heat waves. It's physical nonsense to say that throwing a thicker blanket on causes greater differences in temperature between different areas under the blanket. By suggesting that global warming will increase severity of weather, you are directly implying greater pressure differentials in the overall atmosphere. The only way to get that is by getting a "thinner blanket" allowing for greater difference between solar warming and atmospheric retention of heat.

      NOW, if the extra heating of the earth were because of an increase in solar output (NOTE THAT I AM NOT SUGGESTING THIS IS THE CASE), then yes you would get larger temperature/pressure differences and stronger storms. But that is not the case. If CO2 and H2O amplification are the cause of the heating, that means a MORE EVEN temperature across the planet, not less. A more even temperature means far more mild weather

      Uh, no it wouldn't, or at least no it needn't. We are not talking about going to a run-away greenhouse (AKA, Venus), where that might be true.

      The planet is a heat engine, it absorbs heat at the equator, and radiates the excess heat away at the poles, which drives the (large scale) weather.
      There already is a strong greenhouse effect (it's why the oceans aren't frozen solid), and we have plenty of weather as it is. One reason is that the amount of surface IR radiation is a strong function of the temperature; the Sun heats up the equatorial regions more than the poles, so they dump more heat into the atmosphere, where it still has to go to the poles, and will still drive weather (hurricanes, etc.) along the way. Even if the entire globe heats up, the Sun will still be putting heat into the tropics, and the atmosphere will still have to radiate away at the poles, which will still drive weather.

      There is also the complication that different greenhouse gases have different absorption at different parts of the IR spectrum, and hot versus cold areas have peak radiation at different locations in the spectrum, which you have to model to do this accurately. My understanding is that this tends to making the equatorial absorption more efficient compared to the polar, which of course means that greenhouse warming could act like a increase in solar output. (To put it another way, the blanket is not of uniform thickness, which invalidates your analogy.)

      For regional weather, none of this matters much. The biggest effect of global warming would likely be to keep moving the average location of the jet stream polewards, which could have a big effect on your region, if you happen to be under the jet stream (as much of the US is).

    5. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by jkflying · · Score: 1

      Unnecessary intelligence insult.

      Not when taken in context. Claiming that scientists have figured out a way to incorporate all data to fit their model is not bad science, it is good science. All it means is that their model is more accurate. That's how science works.

      You assume that more greenhouse gasses makes a more uniform temperature. That might be true if our world wasn't split between 30% land, 70% ocean. That 30% on the land has a lower thermal capacity than water, so the temperatures rise a lot more, which makes the infra-red being emitted more. If you now add greenhouse gasses in a nice even spread, it is easy to see: the land gets high temperatures --> CO2 etc absorb infra-red, becoming hotter --> rising air --> low pressures. Add more CO2 to the equation and it makes it even stronger. This difference between land and sea temps is what actually drives the entire global wind (and thus sea current) circulation process.

      BTW this was my highschool geography...

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      Help I am stuck in a signature factory!
    6. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by jkflying · · Score: 1

      As I said in my post, there's also the temperature difference caused by the land/sea split. Combine it with the equator/pole split and throw in some coriolis force for good measure, and it's easy to see how the majority of our wind patterns are the way they are, and how a higher quantity of greenhouse gasses would make them stronger.

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    7. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by jkflying · · Score: 1

      So, based on your accusations that NeutronCowboy is an unqualified wannabe, would you care to share your own credentials? Oh, that's right, you're posting anonymously...

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      Help I am stuck in a signature factory!
    8. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by jkflying · · Score: 1

      Perhaps if YOU took a moment to listen, instead of saying "We've heard that one before", you might come to gain some knowledge as to the working of the weather systems?

      without insulting the intelligence of someone who posted a well-reasoned dissent.

      Well, let's see:

      It's not supposed to be about millenialist/apocalyptic fear-mongering, religious dogma, or viciously attacking everyone who dares question your hypothesis as an unbeliever who should be excommunicated.

      Hmm, labelling anybody who disagrees with you as vicious, fear-mongering and dogmatic. Yup. Sounds well-reasoned.

      --
      Help I am stuck in a signature factory!
    9. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by TemporalBeing · · Score: 1

      Claiming that scientists have figured out a way to incorporate all data to fit their model is not bad science, it is good science.

      Except when such incorporations are done merely to explain away things they find inconvenient and don't actually fit their model so that they can go on with their model.

      That is, if the model predicts A but you get B, then saying the model predicts B simply because it the model doesn't improve the model. Kind of like the way a lot of /.ers don't like String Theory because if something contradicts it they just write another "string" into the the theory even if it contradicts all other strings.

      --
      Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't goin' away. - Elvis Presley (source: imdb.com)
    10. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Seriously, you don't understand models very well. It appears you think models are just an exercise in curve fitting, in other words statistical models. Climate models are physical models in that as much as possible they use the actual mathematics that describe the physical interactions they are trying to model. When the data (aka observations of the real climate) don't match the model's output they investigate the underlying physical reasons it doesn't match and try to improve their understanding. Try these FAQ's for better understanding of how climate models work:

      http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/11/faq-on-climate-models/
      http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/01/faq-on-climate-models-part-ii/

    11. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by jkflying · · Score: 1

      That's because there is so much evidence backing it that if you don't believe it you are clearly just a nutcase. The evidence for GW is building, so yes, in the not so distant future, if the amount of evidence passes the "we're damn sure now" threshold, people who say it doesn't exist may also be taken for nutcases. If you don't want to read and believe peer-reviewed work and instead substitute your source of knowledge with some crackpot TV presenter, then you'll just have to face the consequences. Life is tough like that.

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    12. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by jkflying · · Score: 1

      That's one thing. It's quite another when they say,
      "Oh, it seems we overestimated the amount of H2O vapour which would be present when the increased CO2 levels are taken into account. Let's try adjusting our understanding of evaporation and see if it better fits the last 6 months worth of data. Oh, it does? Wow, this seems to be a better model of physical interactions. Cool, I'll publish a paper on it."

      What's happening here isn't the same as happened with string theory, what is happening is we pretty much know all of the basic interactions, we're just trying to figure out weighting coefficients of how much one process interacts with another, then running massive simulations to see what this tweaked model says. If it agrees with the data, we say, "Wow, this model must be pretty accurate. I wonder what it says will happen in 10/50/100 years time?" Otherwise we discard this set of tweaks and try another.

      Scientists have thrown out String Theory anyways. Yet, more and more of them seem to accept global warming. Odd that, isn't it?

      --
      Help I am stuck in a signature factory!
    13. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by TemporalBeing · · Score: 1

      Scientists have thrown out String Theory anyways. Yet, more and more of them seem to accept global warming. Odd that, isn't it?

      Not from what I can tell. The community seems about split on both.

      --
      Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't goin' away. - Elvis Presley (source: imdb.com)
    14. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by sumdumass · · Score: 1

      I suspect his being modded was the result of his questions. I've seen it happen too with someone spending all their points going down the list and down modding a specific user.

      The problem with his understanding of the differences between weather and climate stems from the very global warming advocates themselves running out saying X happened, it is because of global warming, now support this legislation that will drive the costs of gas and electricity up. This is exactly what is happening right now, a NASA scientist, the same one who was involved with turning the AC units in congress off and attempting to schedule his speech on the historically hottest day of the year just to make a point about global warming to congress. When the leading scientist are grasping at anything and saying see, I'm right, it will create confusion and it will have people asking what about this or that which is essentially the same in return.

    15. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by jkflying · · Score: 1

      The scientific community is not split on global warming, unless you consider 97 - 98% believing global warming and 2-3% against a 'split'. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.abstract
      Or if that's a bit dry, try http://www.npr.org/2011/06/21/137309964/climate-change-public-skeptical-scientists-sure

      Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't goin' away.

      --
      Help I am stuck in a signature factory!
    16. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by Magius_AR · · Score: 1

      "Oh, it seems we overestimated the amount of H2O vapour which would be present when the increased CO2 levels are taken into account. Let's try adjusting our understanding of evaporation and see if it better fits the last 6 months worth of data. Oh, it does? Wow, this seems to be a better model of physical interactions. Cool, I'll publish a paper on it." What's happening here isn't the same as happened with string theory, what is happening is we pretty much know all of the basic interactions, we're just trying to figure out weighting coefficients of how much one process interacts with another

      And you don't see a problem with this? It's complete guesswork on coefficients. Let's say we have two variables: mankind emissions and unknown activity X. Let's say they both double. Now temperatures go up. Was it the emissions that did it? Or the unknown? Let's try another scenario. Emissions double, but temperatures decrease. In my mind, the "scientific" course of action would be to adjust the emissions coefficient downward. But instead, they look for a new variable (lets call it "aerosols") to fudge the numbers back such that the emissions coefficient "looks right" again. This does not seem like science to me. You've predetermined approximately how much of an effect certain variables "should" have and then do fudge-factoring, hidden variable discovery, and curve fitting to make it work with the observed results. When it deviates in the long-long ago, you simply chalk it up to "inaccurate records prior to the 30s". This is the the kind of junk science I see occurring. The hand-waving of inaccuracies, weak data, and fudge factors, all the while vehemently assuring with 100% certainty that the sky is falling.

    17. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by jkflying · · Score: 1

      You seem to be so obsessed with global warming that you have mistaken the aim of the scientists' research. They are not out to prove global warming, they are out to make a more accurate model of our weather systems. They're not changing the coefficients to make the model give them global warming. They're changing them to fit the last 100 years of data, and then seeing what the model says about the future. Which, regardless of whether you like what the model tells us, is still science.

      That's how science works. It's how the research for your computer's transistors was done, it's how the engine in the car you drive was designed and tuned. People have a brainwave, test it, and see if it works better than the old way. This exact process is what has brought you pretty much every piece of technology since the stone ages. The scientists are attempting to create a tool which can be used to help us make decisions about our actions for the future.

      What would you rather have them do? Throw away all models of the weather system that have been built over the last 50 years and start from scratch, so they can find a way to fit the data that doesn't give a future prediction of global warming? Because that would be bad science...

      If you want to go back to living in a cave chanting to the fire gods for lightning to strike so you can have a fire for tonight, go ahead, but don't drag the rest of us back with you.

      --
      Help I am stuck in a signature factory!
    18. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by Magius_AR · · Score: 1

      They're not changing the coefficients to make the model give them global warming. They're changing them to fit the last 100 years of data, and then seeing what the model says about the future.

      How is that not "changing the coefficients to make the model give them global warming"? The earth has been warming for the past 100 years, so any model designed to fit that trend will be much more likely to show a continuation of that trend than anything else, wouldn't it? And why the focus on the 100 year span? That certainly seems arbitrary. Climate of a planet is a long term event, with 100 years being a drop in the historical bucket. Yet the vast majority of focus is on the last 100 years...you know, the time span that once again is more likely to feed their global warming hypothesis...how can you say these choices are anything but self-serving arbitration?

    19. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by jkflying · · Score: 1

      It's about as long as we've had mass produced accurate thermometers along with a wide enough spread of people that had them. Any other measure (tree rings etc) are secondary and aren't as accurate as there is an extra layer of error, eg they may be affected by rainfall and not just temperature.

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    20. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by Magius_AR · · Score: 1

      It's about as long as we've had mass produced accurate thermometers along with a wide enough spread of people that had them. Any other measure (tree rings etc) are secondary and aren't as accurate as there is an extra layer of error, eg they may be affected by rainfall and not just temperature.

      Which is valid, but doesn't address my concern -- namely, that grand predictions about the long term climate of our planet are being claimed with high levels of certainty, based on a very small subset of data that just happens to be in a time window that favors their argument. Whether malicious or merely coincidental, I find it hard to trust science that attempts to simplify the entire climate history of a planet into a ~70 year observation window and extrapolate based only on those observations.

    21. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by jkflying · · Score: 1

      I think the reality is that no matter how much we armchair pontificate, there are people who have PhD's in this stuff and have spent the last 40 years of their life thinking about it, working on it, and sharing ideas with those who are in a similar field. For us to walk in from our layman's perspective and suddenly claim large flaws in things that they have undoubtedly thought through many times over seems just a bit naive. Chances are that we don't begin to understand half of the complexities of the models they use, and for all we know they just need 3 days of reasonably good recordings in order to get their model fully primed and ready to predict the next 20k years.

      Really, we speak from an area of very little expertise on this topic, and just like I'd get pissed off if some climatologist heard something on TV and started lecturing me on the inaccuracies of the work I'm doing because there's no chance he'll understand all the nuances without years of work in the subject, so I suspect it goes much the same the other way. So if a climatologist says that he's pretty damn sure that his models are now accurate enough to reliably predict a catastrophic climate change event, I'm going to listen. Especially if the rest of them start agreeing with him.

      And I don't think it's too unreasonable to predict the next 100 years given the past 100 years.

      --
      Help I am stuck in a signature factory!
    22. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by Magius_AR · · Score: 1

      I think the reality is that no matter how much we armchair pontificate, there are people who have PhD's in this stuff and have spent the last 40 years of their life thinking about it, working on it, and sharing ideas with those who are in a similar field.

      Except that that is irrelevant. The methods of science can be understood by a layman -- and extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. If a quantum physicist told me "hey, I just discovered a new particle that is going to end the world tomorrow, trust me", I'd still hold that opinion with a degree of incredulity, despite him being an expert in his field. This is especially true when you take into account confirmation bias, which happens to actually be more likely within focused slices of the populace moreso than in the general populace. For example, there's plenty of peer-reviewed scientific papers in the pharmaceutical business but that doesn't stop selection bias from occurring: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/sim.4780130518/abstract

      like I'd get pissed off if some climatologist heard something on TV and started lecturing me on the inaccuracies of the work I'm doing because there's no chance he'll understand all the nuances without years of work in the subject

      I doubt you make such grand claims in your field. The environmental finding are being scrutinized more heavily specifically because of the grandiosity of the claims.

      And I don't think it's too unreasonable to predict the next 100 years given the past 100 years.

      Really? Name any field we can do that in. Hell, in just the past 20 years, we've seen computers leap from less than a megabyte of storage to several terabytes. We've gone from 200 baud modems to multi gigabit ethernet connections. Could you have predicted the emergence and popularity of the internet 30 years ago? Based on the trends of the previous 30 years? How about economics? Human beings are _awful_ at predicting the future. We see patterns where we want to see them.

    23. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by jkflying · · Score: 1

      1: Climate science is very complex. You don't seem to realise this.
      2: It is a good thing that they are being scrutinized, but please leave the scrutinizing to people who are qualified to do so.
      3: Not everything changes as quickly as computers. Eg, how much advance has there been in jet engines since 1960? I agree that people are terrible at predicting things, and that is why we are using physics-based climate models to do the predicting for us. If a random professor was pulling numbers out of his ass, I'd agree with you, but these numbers are based on complex physics-based models.

      My question to you is, what would it take for you to believe that global warming will be a problem in the not-so-distant future? What evidence would convince you? I'm genuinely interested in what your answer is, because for me the case is pretty cut and dried.

      --
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    24. Re:Bulletproof cage that accepts no dissent by Magius_AR · · Score: 1

      1: Climate science is very complex. You don't seem to realise this.

      How do I not? It's the exact complexity you mention which causes me to doubt the veracity of "100% proven science".

      2: It is a good thing that they are being scrutinized, but please leave the scrutinizing to people who are qualified to do so.

      And I'm assuming you mean "climate scientists" with that statement? And how do we account for bias then?

      but these numbers are based on complex physics-based models.

      Models which are changing frequently as our understanding of climate changes over time. Which brings us right back to climate complexity and the flawed nature of our understanding of it. So how can I not doubt the certainty these scientists approach the topic with?

      My question to you is, what would it take for you to believe that global warming will be a problem in the not-so-distant future? What evidence would convince you?

      In truth? Consistency would be a good start, or even a little bit of humbling of the climate scientists (as in toning back the "sky is falling" dialogue). If they could start getting things right without going "oops, forgot this" or "ack, that doesn't match what we expected, it must be this" or "crap, that model is wrong, we need to muck with these coefficients". Basically, if their actual results showed the kind of certainty their publicity does, I could more easily get on board. And that's just going to take time. Right now, our own understanding of climate is simply changing far too frequently to be certain of future trends. Hell, our understanding of aerosols alone saw a dramatic shift just three years ago (a time when climate scientists were just as 100% certain of their predictions): http://www.treehugger.com/natural-sciences/aerosols-more-important-to-global-warming-than-acknowledged.html

      I think they have a good theory, and clearly alot of knowledge in their field...but I also think that like many people who are experts in their field, they're also subject to confirmation bias, anchoring in particular: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring

  30. NOTHING to do with GPP. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Here, since you seem to have forgotten it, is what the GGP said:

    "The rest of all the people who (think they) can predict the future: GO BUY LOTTO TICKETS YOU IDIOT!!!"

    Which is patently wrong.

  31. Like fucking DUH by SlippyToad · · Score: 1

    Who needs to literally have it spelled out for them anymore?

    Oh, I imagine there's a fair number of right-wing glibertards who aren't getting it because a man has difficulty understanding something when his salary depends on him not understanding it, but other than that, duh you've gotta be a fuckin' stupid git to not comprehend that things are warmer today than they were even 10 years ago.

    --
    One day I feel I'm ahead of the wheel / the next it's rolling over me / I can get back on / I can get back on
  32. Socialist science by wytcld · · Score: 4, Interesting

    My dad, who gets most of his news and opinions from Rupert Murdoch's corporation, and my brother, who gets most of his news and opinions from libertarian blogs, assure me that climate science is socialist science. You see, there is a conspiracy at the universities, where all the faculty is implicitly socialist (evidently not having to really work for a living fosters that political belief!) to end capitalism. Climate scientists are the cutting edge by which that conspiracy seeks to slice the capitalist throat. Everything in their journals and public pronouncements is a concerted lie in the furtherance of their conspiracy.

    What Joe McCarthy warned us about — a communist conspiracy in government (at a time where there really were some communist conspirators in government, if perhaps not as many as he claimed) — doesn't begin to compare to this (where rather than a minority of government workers being communist, over 97% of climate scientists are in on the grand conspiracy)! To find a parallel, we must look back to earlier in the 20th century, when "Jewish science" threatened to undermine that most advanced of states, Germany. Top non-Jewish scientists in Germany, many with fundamental discoveries to their credit, elucidated precisely how the "theory" of relativity and certain quantum claims from "Jewish science" threatened to undermine the Thousand Year Reich, and more than that were specifically designed to.

    From our point of view as Americans, we have much to thank "Jewish science" for. It shows how scientists, when they conspire, can undermine what they see as an evil empire. Similarly, future citizens of Greater Socialist Scandinavia may thank the "climate scientists" whose clever scheme if successful will spell the end of the Capitialist American Empire.

    --
    "with their freedom lost all virtue lose" - Milton
    1. Re:Socialist science by spidercoz · · Score: 1

      Close-minded, paranoid, irrational, non-critical thinking people are the reason we are in this mess. You poor, poor bastard. My family is much the same. Very old, very entrenched, and very unresponsive to new ideas. All I can say is keep arguing, use logic, and above all don't drop to their level. Sooner or later their views fall apart.

      --
      "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - Evelyn Beatrice Hall, re Voltaire
    2. Re:Socialist science by misexistentialist · · Score: 1

      It's no secret that academia leans left (where else on the planet can you find practicing Marxists?) and that scientific studies can be deliberately falsified. If the layman has no interest in the results one way or another it's easy to give the scientists the benefit of the doubt, but if the scientists are saying something that he doesn't want to hear he obviously will never accept it on faith.

  33. Re:Mitt Romney is not from the southern Hell by medcalf · · Score: 1

    He's from Massachusetts. In Dante's Hell, the center is frozen. Coincidence? I think not!

    --
    -- Two men say they're Jesus. One of them must be wrong. - Dire Straits
  34. Hot advice by brocktoon · · Score: 1

    Beware of any politician that promises to change the temperature of the earth.

  35. Re:Look at the data - US temp records by state: by cusco · · Score: 1

    Still haven't learned the difference between 'weather' and 'climate', have you. Or the meaning of the word 'global' either I see.

    --
    "Think about how stupid the average person is. Now, realise that half of them are dumber than that." - George Carlin
  36. Re:Hansen is delusional by tmosley · · Score: 1

    Given the number of different places on the Earth, I would be quite surprised to see fewer than three once in a century events at any given time. Within the same decade seems very LOW, actually. Further, assuming that his statistical analysis is valid (I am not a statistician, so I can't really make the judgment), the summary seams to use a leap to conclusions mat to determine that this is a result of global warming, something which is supposed to affect climate, which is multi-decade, not single decade.

    Also, how do you know what once in a century in Texas is actually like? It's only been settled by Westerners for a few hundred years, and only really had good weather observation for 100, maybe longer in a few places. Further, it has been my experience that people tend to apply their normalcy bias and lower the probability of cyclical bad events. I remember back in the 90's when we were hearing about all these 100 and 500 year floods in the midwest, and even then that struck me as terribly unlikely. Whether there is an unknown weather cycle that brings increased temperature variation, or whether application of a small temperature increase causes both increased temperature and weather variation (rather than just raising the baseline) is in question. Further, there is a certain amount of complexity here, as CO2 concentrations are greatly increased around urban centers, as well as humidity levels (both from combustion of fuels and from the inability of the concrete to absorb significant amounts of precipitation). As there are many urban centers around the world, that is something that can not be ignored. Finding out which is the most significant culprit is thus very important, as it will effect the remediation technique that must be used. Do we need to ban ICEs in the city limits of cities over 100,000? Or do we need to seed clouds from the tallest towers in those cities, while making a transition to underground water runoff storage?

  37. Yes I do. So what? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Or can't you answer the question and have to distract to avoid answering?

    If the temperatures were 1C cooler, would the heatwaves be less severe or not?

    1. Re:Yes I do. So what? by doconnor · · Score: 2

      According to this study, the heatwaves would be less frequent of the temperatures were 1C cooler.

  38. Re:Look at the data - US temp records by state: by tp1024 · · Score: 1

    Them, pray tell, how is a heatwave in 2012 climate, but a much larger and more consequential set of heatwaves in the 1930ies is weather?

  39. Sample size is too small by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 2

    He based his conclusions on a 60 year time frame. 60 years is statistically insignificant when looked at on geologic time scales. It is the equivalent of stating a person's average life-time activity level by looking at what said person did over the last minute.

    --
    There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
    1. Re:Sample size is too small by Nemyst · · Score: 2

      Mankind is insignificant on a geological time scale.

      Why should we care how the climate looks like in a million years if we're extinct in a millennium?

    2. Re:Sample size is too small by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 1

      How can we say something is abnormal when we don't look at the actual big picture? Why would we be extinct in a millennium, besides the fact that many species go extinct? Global warming? Chances are we won't go extinct from that, at least not directly. Humans are adaptable enough to survive climate change itself, it will just result in a smaller population. The bigger threat is war for ever dwindling resources.

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
  40. It's all cyclical by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    The funny thing about global warming is that whenever there's a massive heatwave or cold snap, it has all happened before. We're just going through a cycle.

    The only people that will suffer are the idiots that built homes in flood planes and along shorelines.

    Curious though: do Arabs in the Middle East complain about heat waves? Or, are they just laughing at all the silly Western doomsday proclomations?

  41. Sources of extreme heat, too large to be natural by Chas · · Score: 1
    --


    Chas - The one, the only.
    THANK GOD!!!
  42. Re:Hansen is delusional by spidercoz · · Score: 4, Insightful

    How many consecutive "local anomalies" will it take for you to acknowledge a distinct pattern of increasing dynamism?

    --
    "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - Evelyn Beatrice Hall, re Voltaire
  43. Re:could there possibly be a bigger load of bullsh by spidercoz · · Score: 1

    You obviously don't read much of anything.

    --
    "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - Evelyn Beatrice Hall, re Voltaire
  44. Re:So why are most US temp records from the 1930s? by spidercoz · · Score: 1

    Records and averages are not the same thing.

    --
    "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - Evelyn Beatrice Hall, re Voltaire
  45. Re:Hansen is delusional by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Earth is 4 billions years old yet the baseline for most of the climate change data is on average at most 300 years old with the majority of the data focused on the last 120years so yea we know exactly whats happen and whats causing as the "science" is settled.

    AC as I don't wish to loose my karma via the Church of Climate Change

  46. Here We Go ... Again by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Peer-review? by The National Academy of Science (NAS)?

    Hansen is a member of the NAS. NAS would never reject a
    paper from a member!

    But the conclusions are not supported because the 'technical'
    details are unfounded on too many accounts of dubious
    numerology posing as mathematics.

    The title of the paper is correct, 'Perception' a quality of the
    human mind apart from reality.

    LOL

  47. AGW is a lie. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Looks like the AGW folks have basically won. This is a sad sad day for science and rational thought in this country when an unscientific theory like AGW gets so much uncritical airtime.

  48. The average rises. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    "It will get Warmer.
    It will get colder."

    The average rises.

    This is global warming.

    How do you know that the climate is different in Florida than in NY state? The average weather over 30 years.

    Now, if that measure was taken 80 years ago and done again today, the values you get for THE EXACT SAME PLACE have changed.

    This is called "climate change" and we know it's changed for the exact same reason why know what the climate of a state or region is.

  49. No Bridge beween Opposites by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 1

    Build a bridge and get over it.

    I don't think it's possible. Here's why:

    Consider the 3x3 matrix:

    a: climate change isn't happening
    b: climate change may be happening
    c: climate change is happening

    x: do nothing about it
    y: implement technology-based solutions to deal with it
    z: implement State-based solutions to deal with it

    the people in (c,z) are advocating the violence-based taking of resources from the other 8 sectors, which upsets them. This especially burns the people at (c,y) because the (c,z) people are also preventing the (c,y) people from acting, and the (c,y) people believe that the (c,z) people have an unworkable solution, but they have might-makes-right people on their side.

    The (c,z) people also paint the (c,y) people as (a,x) people, when they're actually closest neighbors. Media people tend to describe the problem as (A,B), where A maps to (a,x) and B maps to (c,z), which does the debate no favors at all.

    The only way for the (c,y) people to prove their case is for them to be allowed to demonstrate it. But the (c,z) people prevent that from happening. Some (c,z) people know that the (c,y) people are right but want more State power, some are unaware, and some believe they are wrong. If we call them (l,m,n) respectively, it's only the (c,z,l) people who are dangerous - the other 26/27 quadrant occupants are amenable to persuasion by science. But you can't build a bridge between science and anti-science, they are actually opposites.

    --
    My God, it's Full of Source!
    OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
  50. More BS brought to you by.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    ... the same people who were trying to sell an impending Ice Age in the 1970's...

  51. Re:Hansen is delusional by marcosdumay · · Score: 1

    It can not be a "local anomaly" because the heat waves have been observed in the entire planet. It is still an "anomaly", and that's why it must be explained.

    It can either be a random event, or a non-random event. In the former case, nothing changed, you can move away, in the second case, it is caused by some thing (global warming being the most obvious suspect by a margin so huge that it doesn't make sense to put anything else on the list). This paper is exaclty about that, now we know with 3-sigma certainty (on that kind of research, that's enough to claim "we are certain") that it is non-random.

  52. Hansen again by bradley13 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Ok, my first off-the-cuff response got modded "flamebait". I hadn't RTFA, I just based my opinion on Hansen's past publicity stunts. More, look at the timing: Right after the Curiosity landing sends NASA hits through the roof, to stage your next publicity stunt as a "NASA scientist".

    So now I've read the publicly accessible parts of the paper. I stick by my initial opinion: he's a publicity hound, nothing more. The paper is based on the trend of "hot weather" incidents starting in 1950 through 2000. Why didn't he include the 1930's and 1940's? Probably because they were hotter than the 1950's and would mess up his nice little trend. Anyway, looking for serious climate trends over a period of only 50 years is just dumb. There is a natural 60-year climate oscillation (see Scafetta, 2010) that lines up nicely with this little line segment that Hansen has chopped out. If you cherry pick your data, of course you can find a trend.

    I stick by my original message: Hansen is a publicity cow, cynically using the Curiosity publicity to advance his own agenda.

    --
    Enjoy life! This is not a dress rehearsal.
  53. Re:Hansen is delusional by marcosdumay · · Score: 1

    The set of heat waves studied on this paper can't be explained by chance. You you stud just a subset of them you'll reduce the significance of your set, and can quite well discover that your subset can be explained by chance.

  54. Three Sigma?? by cosmicl · · Score: 1

    It is very easy to be fooled by 3 sigma fluctuations, especially on an analysis of data that has already been collected. The problem is the statistical penalty. how many searches were made and not reported? If you do 100 tests on random data, you will find a three sigma effect that is just a statistical fluctuation. One reason why 5 sigma, and not 3 sigma is the requirement for discovery in physics (eg the Higgs)

  55. Re:Hansen is delusional by Mashiki · · Score: 1

    How many consecutive "local anomalies" will it take for you to acknowledge a distinct pattern of increasing dynamism?

    That depends. Do your optics dispute that if an area accounting for only 1% of the total area is "global warming" when the rest of this rock was way under the seasonal normal? Or is that just blind ignorance, and part of the cult?

    --
    Om, nomnomnom...
  56. Re:could there possibly be a bigger load of bullsh by mcgrew · · Score: 1

    Do you think someone ignorant of the uses and necessity of capitalization is even capable of reading a scientific paper??? The guy's obviously fifteen years old and trying to be "133t" and not relizing how ignorant his comment looks.

  57. Re:REALITY VS. HOPE by mellon · · Score: 1

    China is not as hopeless as you think. But a lot of this is just that we keep electing people who are more interested in not offending than in getting things done. The U.S. is quite capable of being a force for change in the world, even though our numbers are small. The problem is that to date, we have not really tried to make any positive change—we've been against every major change that's been proposed.

  58. Re:Hansen is delusional by Sara+Chan · · Score: 1
    Moderators, I am the author of the above comment that has been moderated "Troll"; the moderation was apparently done on the basis of replying comments. I ask you to check what my comment said, before moderating it as troll.

    Here is what the Slashdot summary said.

    the paper says, that scientists can claim with near certainty that events like the Texas heat wave last year, the Russian heat wave of 2010 and the European heat wave of 2003 would not have happened without the planetary warming caused by the human release of greenhouse gases.

    It ought to be clear from this that the Russian heat wave, in particular, is being blamed on putative global warming. Now, check the three links in my comment to confirm that they do indeed say exactly what my comment claims. The second link requires a password or subscription; here is an alternative link, from the American Geophysical Union (which publishes the journal):
    http://www.agu.org/news/press/jhighlight_archives/2011/2011-04-13.shtml#five
    You can confirm that the quote supplied in my comment is taken from that link.

    The real trolls are the commenters who claimed that I was misquoting or misrepresenting. My comment is not a troll, and it should be moderated fairly.

    I think that it says something about the current global warming debate that an accurate critical comment such as mine is moderated troll while blatantly false criticisms of my comment get moderated up to 5.

  59. Re:Hansen is delusional by Anynomous+Coward · · Score: 1

    Moderators, I am the author of the above comment that has been moderated "Troll"; the moderation was apparently done on the basis of replying comments. I ask you to check what my comment said, before moderating it as troll.

    Here is what the Slashdot summary said.

    the paper says, that scientists can claim with near certainty that events like the Texas heat wave last year, the Russian heat wave of 2010 and the European heat wave of 2003 would not have happened without the planetary warming caused by the human release of greenhouse gases.

    It ought to be clear from this that the Russian heat wave, in particular, is being blamed on putative global warming. Now, check the three links in my comment to confirm that they do indeed say exactly what my comment claims. The second link requires a password or subscription; here is an alternative link, from the American Geophysical Union (which publishes the journal):

    http://www.agu.org/news/press/jhighlight_archives/2011/2011-04-13.shtml#five

    You can confirm that the quote supplied in my comment is taken from that link.

    The real trolls are the commenters who claimed that I was misquoting or misrepresenting. My comment is not a troll, and it should be moderated fairly.

    I think that it says something about the current global warming debate that an accurate critical comment such as mine is moderated troll while blatantly false criticisms of my comment get moderated up to 5.

    Duly noted.

    --
    I'm not a coward by any name.
  60. Re:could there possibly be a bigger load of bullsh by Anynomous+Coward · · Score: 1

    Care to explain to me what relizing means ? English is not my mother tongue and I'm eager to learn new words.

    --
    I'm not a coward by any name.
  61. Re:What heat wave?!? by Anynomous+Coward · · Score: 1

    A cold summer is weather, a heat wave is climate, and both are manifestations of global warming proven by settled peer-reviewed science. Learn to tow the party line by pointing out their differences and similarities. It's not too hard once you leave your common sense at the door !

    --
    I'm not a coward by any name.
  62. Re:Hansen is delusional by spidercoz · · Score: 1

    Your statement is not congruent with reality.

    --
    "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - Evelyn Beatrice Hall, re Voltaire
  63. Re:could there possibly be a bigger load of bullsh by mcgrew · · Score: 1

    It's a typo, it should have had an A between the E and the L. They may spell it with an S rather than a Z in Britain, I'm not sure.

    "realize"

  64. Too Late by agrisea · · Score: 2

    I have read enough comments to realize that people on /. will continue to debate whether the adverse environmental conditions are man-caused or natural. It really does not matter any longer as there is nothing that can stop it. Storms will be more destructive year after year and those islands no one cares about will disappear in to the water. Of course, people will debate if the weather is really worse than before. We are only just starting to see weather that will scare the crap out of you and your wallet. Who to blame for it, does it really matter?

    --
    Agrisea Tsunami - Epyc Servers... https://agrisea.net/products
  65. http://malangrayaonline.blogspot.com/ by ekowiyono · · Score: 1

    we can stop global warming with individual actions self begin, example always not industrial consumtion, this way can reduce produc and than can reduce activity http://malangrayaonline.blogspot.com/2012/08/sepeda-motor-bebek-injeksi-kencang-dan.html