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Why Bitcoin Boomed During the Government Shutdown

Daniel_Stuckey writes "Just two weeks after the Feds shuttered the Silk Road, the notorious online drug bazaar, Bitcoin prices have touched a five-month high — with a single Bitcoin fetching nearly $156 on Tokyo-based exchange Mt. Gox. Bitcoin's resiliency can no longer be denied, especially as the digital currency continued its ascendancy even against the backdrop of a U.S. government in utter disarray. At the 11th hour of the crisis, President Obama signed a bill that ended the partial government shutdown and, more importantly, raised the debt ceiling, an arbitrary limit on the amount of money the country can borrow that would have been surpassed today. If Congress had failed to reach a deal and the U.S. was unable to pay its bills, the results might have been catastrophic, eclipsing the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers five years ago, the domino that could trigger the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression."

27 of 282 comments (clear)

  1. This is proof? Really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

    How many people honestly understand the relationship between currency prices and the government shutdown? Very very few I would guess.

    Gold dropped when the goverment was down and bounced back after the deal was signed. Why? Gold is supposed to be a safe harbour.

    Does the author of TFA see BTC as the opposite of gold, or does he see BTC as filling the same kind of role as gold?

    Or is this simply a case of making using hindsight to construct an argument that fits a general argument that BTC is worth investing in?

    1. Re:This is proof? Really? by felrom · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Gold dropped because the market's built-in assumption that the Fed would keep printing money to finance the government's deficits forever was temporarily shaken by the possibility of maybe some sane fiscal policy showing its head for once. Then gold went back up when the deal was signed, signifying full steam ahead on printing and deficits. It made absolute sense.

      But yeah, this article in particular is just a bad case of hindsight bias.

    2. Re:This is proof? Really? by jwilloug · · Score: 3, Interesting

      But printing money was one of the possible outcomes of hitting the debt ceiling. Both the Fed and the Secretary of the Treasury have the legal authority to declare that they are covering the deficit by creating money rather than borrowing it, and they may well have done so. It wouldn't have been great monetary policy, but there is a reasonable argument that it's better than default.

    3. Re:This is proof? Really? by Bite+The+Pillow · · Score: 4, Interesting

      That is disingenuous at best. Gold peaked at 1900 in 2011 during the housing and financial crises from 400 in 2003. It has been on the way down since then, making a spike unlikely. It took a 3% dip from 10 October and came back to where it was.

      All signs point to gold markets knowing this would be a temporary crisis that would not maintain price levels past its resolution. Bitcoin, on the other hand, does not seem to be valued by market savvy investors. Knee jerk irrational fools more like, so it follows the panic more closely.

      I'm no economist or fund manager, so I'm probably wrong.

    4. Re:This is proof? Really? by Drakonblayde · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Gold is an excellent safe haven in the sense that if you have 1kg of gold about $40,000K and civilization collapsed tomorrow you would still have 1kg of gold. If you had that in hard currency all you would have is 40,000 pieces of paper. Though 40,000 pieces of paper would be very valueable as toilet paper. Hmmmmm maybe gold isn't as good of a safe haven as I thought. I need to stock up on US currency.

      This is why I don't get folks that want to hoard gold as a hedge against economic fallout. If civilization collapses, gold becomes worthless. In a collapsed economy, gold has no practical value. If civilization collapses, I want things that will actually be useful. Food. Water. Shelter. Guns. Clothing. These are the currency of a collapsed economy, not pretty baubles or shiny bricks.

  2. China by Wonko+the+Sane · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The recent price of Bitcoin has far more to do with explosive adoption in China than anything happening in the United States.

    1. Re:China by JohnA · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Exactly. When Baidu added it as a supported payment method, the game changed.

    2. Re:China by Wonko+the+Sane · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I just love how quickly and how extensively Bitcoin is growing outside the United States, especially because the trolls who insist that the US will just shut it down someday are going to keep saying that well beyond the point at which it would matter to the Bitcoin economy if the US completely stopped existing.

    3. Re:China by shentino · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Just because your biased doesn't mean your wrong.

  3. Derp by girlintraining · · Score: 3, Insightful

    If Congress had failed to reach a deal and the U.S. was unable to pay its bills, the results might have been catastrophic, eclipsing the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers five years ago, the domino that could trigger the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression."

    Someone's been watching too much "news". The results wouldn't be catastrophic. They'd be annoying. Like everything else the government has done over the past decade. Catastrophic is the entire government collapses, food shortages and water become scarce, and people start killing one another in open anarchy.

    Words. They mean shit, Slashdot. Choose them carefully.

    --
    #fuckbeta #iamslashdot #dicemustdie
    1. Re:Derp by dyingtolive · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Catastrophic to most people these days is not being able to afford their daily $8 Starbucks coffee.

      The problem isn't that they're using the wrong words, it's that their worlds are too small for the proper order of magnitude for the word. Like a six year old.

      --
      Support the EFF and Creative Commons. The war is coming, and they're supporting you...
    2. Re:Derp by artor3 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Go on thinking that, Pollyanna, if it helps you sleep at night.

      The shutdown wasn't really a big deal, sure, but if the US had defaulted on its debt, that would have been catastrophic.

      We owe around $16 trillion right now. But it's really not a big deal, because we pay negative interest on it (relative to inflation). Countries are eager to keep investing in the US, and the high demand lets us pay very low interest. If US debt were seen as unsafe, we would need to pay MUCH higher interest in order to attract investors. We obviously wouldn't be able to pay the higher interest, since this scenario is based on the assumption that Congress refuses to even repay the principle. So we would have to start paying out $16 trillion without replacement investments coming in.

      Goodbye, Medicare. Goodbye, Social Security. Goodbye, foodstamps and welfare and section 8. Hello, social upheaval. Hello, desperation-induced crime wave. Hello, Great Depression.

      That's your idea of "annoying"? I'd say "catastrophic" is a far more apt description.

    3. Re:Derp by Copid · · Score: 3, Informative

      You seem to think three things:

      1) That the Treasury has the power to pick and choose who gets paid.
      2) That the payments are made all at the same time so we don't have cashflow issues for different payment dates.
      3) That telling people other than bondholders, "Yes, we agreed to pay you, but we're not going to," is something other than a default and that the credit markets would see this as A-OK.

      I don't think that any of these things are true, and even if some are, it seems pretty unlikely that all of them are true.

      --
      An interesting anagram of "BANACH TARSKI" is "BANACH TARSKI BANACH TARSKI"
    4. Re:Derp by houstonbofh · · Score: 3, Funny

      Goodbye, Medicare. Goodbye, Social Security. Goodbye, foodstamps and welfare and section 8. Hello, social upheaval. Hello, desperation-induced crime wave. Hello, Great Depression.

      Of course a lot of the good science fiction starts right after that point, so I say BRING IT! :)

  4. Re: Nobody cares about bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Are you freaking kidding? Why is it that every half wit thinks that bitcoin is all about drug transactions and prostitution?

  5. Re:Nobody cares about bitcoin by grub · · Score: 4, Funny


    I use BitCoin to make donations to various Linux projects. That way when I download all those Linux ISOs on BitTorrent, I really feel like I'm sticking it to The Man.

    --
    Trolling is a art,
  6. Re:Crisis not solved, made worse by Copid · · Score: 4, Informative

    When the last raising of the ceiling led to a credit rating downgrade...

    Correction. Threatening not to raise the debt ceiling lead to a credit rating downgrade. Explicitly saying in public that you're thinking about not honoring your financial obligations does that.

    --
    An interesting anagram of "BANACH TARSKI" is "BANACH TARSKI BANACH TARSKI"
  7. Re: Nobody cares about bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    They aren't even anonymous transactions... if you convert bitcoins to cash, that's a major weakness.

    And they have a great use: eliminating payment processing costs. Those costs are distributed among the people who run the mining software.

  8. Re:Crisis not solved, made worse by artor3 · · Score: 5, Informative

    You liar. The credit rating downgrade wasn't because we raised the ceiling, it was because the Republicans threatened not to.

    The ratings agency EXPLICITLY SAID SO:

    The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy.

  9. Banks Tried to Shut it down by Deliveranc3 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Banks made transferring out of MTGOX impossible, MTGOX refunded my $. They are about 8 weeks behind processing withdraws.

    Bad news, banks and government attacking at same time interfered with each other.

    Also, they had this guy, he sold drugs... lots of drugs... but did they bust him? Nope, they did an elaborate sting to bag him for something REALLY REALLY evil... (I hate drugs btw) Why? So he wouldn't be a martyr for free wealth exchange.

    Also the whole BTC aren't totally anonymous thing is a good to know.

  10. Default Only If We Chose To by geoffrobinson · · Score: 3, Informative

    The U.S. Government gets somewhere between $200 billion and $225 billion a month in tax payments. I forget the exact figure, but let's say debt payments are around $50 billion a month.

    We would only default if we chose to pay our debt with the lowest priority.

    --
    Except for ending slavery, the Nazis, communism, & securing American independence, war has never solved anything.
  11. Re: Nobody cares about bitcoin by MightyYar · · Score: 3, Interesting

    If people stop mining, then the currency stops being created... no matter - that will happen eventually anyway.. More likely, the price of bitcoins will continue to rise as usage does, and this will drive more people to mine. If usage does not increase, then who cares if they are mined or not?

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  12. Re:Not to worry by Shompol · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Much in the same way as bitcoin isn't backed by anything real or stable, just demand.

    What is backed by "real and stable"? US currency? Nop, it gets devalued pretty fast. Gold? Real Estate? (How much Real Estate do you put in your wallet when going grocery shopping?)

    Humans used to use all sort of currency, from sea shells to alcohol to pretty pieces of paper we have today. None of them backed by anything, just convenience. Maybe bitcoin is the next "it"

  13. Re: Nobody cares about bitcoin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    sounds like your problem is with all forms of cash

  14. Re: Nobody cares about bitcoin by cheater512 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The difficulty parameter autoadjusts depending on the number of miners. Less miners = easier difficulty.
    There should always be a new block every 10 mins (on average).

    Also while the benefits of mining diminish, the 'fees' should increase with the use of bitcoin.
    At some point the fees overtake the benefit of finding a new block.
    Remember the fees get paid to the block finder.

  15. Re: Nobody cares about bitcoin by Drakonblayde · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Or maybe because what I buy is my business and my business alone? Without anonymity, it makes it trivial for people to track my purchases. If people can track my purchases, they can target me for their sales campaigns in order to try and manipulate me into giving them more money, Since I'm not terribly fond of being manipulated, nor am I terribly fond of junk mail or spam, I prefer my transactions to be as anonymous as possible.

    But yeah, I guess you're right, it's all about the hookers and blow, Couldn't possibly be any other reason I don't want folks up in my business.

  16. Re:China exchange controls by Animats · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Right. China has tight exchange controls - it take special permission from the State Ministry for Foreign Exchange to exchange yuan for dollars, euros, or yen. But at present, China residents can buy Bitcoins with yuan. They can also sell Bitcoins for dollars, bypassing exchange controls. So if you've made money in China and want, say, to buy an apartment in London, Bitcoin provides a way to bypass the government exchange controls.

    That seems to be what's pushing up the price of Bitcoin. The volume on exchanges in China is way up, while volume at Mt.Gox is way down.

    However, there's no guarantee that this situation will last. The People's Bank of China can change this policy at any time. There's plenty of info available about PBOC policy; it's as least as important as US Fed policy. But that's enough for Slashdot readers.