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New Information May Narrow Down Malaysian Jet's Path

mdsolar (1045926) writes with this excerpt from Slate on the still-missing Malaysian Airline flight "In a case that is swirling with uncertainties, a few pieces of evidence have stood apart for seeming reliability. Among them was the revelation last Saturday by Malaysia Prime Minister Najib Razak that his country's investigators, in collaboration with U.S. authorities, had analyzed an electronic ping that MH370 had broadcast to the Inmarsat satellite at 8:11 a.m. on the morning of the disappearance. Based on this data, the investigators had determined that at that moment MH370 must have been somewhere along one of two broad arcs: one which passed through Central Asia, and the other of which covered a swath of largely empty Indian Ocean, far to the south. The revelation left a burning question unresolved: what about the six earlier pings, which had been exchanged between the aircraft and the satellite about once per hour? Could any position data be deduced from them? Today, Inmarsat revealed some crucial information. 'The ping timings got longer,' Inmarsat spokesman Chris McLaughlin stated via email. That is to say, at each stage of its journey, the aircraft got progressively farther away from the geostationary satellite's position, located over a spot on the equator south of Pakistan, and never changed its heading in a direction that took it closer—at least for very long."

160 of 227 comments (clear)

  1. Not new information by drmofe · · Score: 1

    The intermediate pings have always been considered along with the final pings to determine the arcs. The information at the end of the article - that a southern flight would be found on Indonesian primary radar returns - seems to contradict the large search effort being carried out currently on the southern corridor. It's also entirely possible that the flight wasn't picked up on Indonesian radar - even though it did fly south - if the Indonesian radar capability was not operating as it was expected to.

    1. Re:Not new information by MichaelSmith · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Primary radars are short range devices. Its pretty easy to evade them, by design or by accident. Having said that the aircraft would have to have been steered south after it crossed the Malay peninsula to the west, and there is no explanation for that at the moment. My hope is that the southern ocean search is being run to give the illusion of action while the US and China prepare to extract hostages from one of the [a-z]stans.

    2. Re:Not new information by Stellian · · Score: 5, Informative

      Here's a map of the pings:
      http://theaviationist.com/wp-c...

    3. Re:Not new information by flyingsquid · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I think that we are going to be in for a very, very long wait before we find out what happened— we're not talking about weeks or months, but many years. When Air France 447 went down, debris and an oil slick was spotted within 24 hours of the plane's loss. Even with that lead, it took almost two years, including the use of towed sonar arrays, nuclear and robotic submarines, and autonomous robotic underwater vehicles, to finally located the wreckage and salvage the plane and black boxes.

      Here, the situation is vastly more challenging. Locating the wreckage of Air France 447 quickly, before it had time to drift far, meant that it was possible to narrow down the search area considerably; the initial search area was around 2400 square miles- a 50 mile by 50 mile area. Here, the search area is almost a hundred times that- the area the Australians have been searching is something like 230,000 square miles. That's roughly the size of Texas. It's also in the middle of nowhere- between Australia and the Kerguelen islands, putting it about 1500 miles away from land. That's making it difficult to do aerial searches- the planes burn most of their fuel getting there and back, so there's little time for searches. It sounds like the weather isn't fantastic either, so visibility is limited, and satellite photos of the suspected wreckage show a lot of white, which I assume is whitecaps from heavy seas. That's going to make it difficult or impossible to spot wreckage on radar- the waves are going to be reflecting back a lot of signal, creating a lot of noise- or visually. The heavy wave action could also cause floating sections of wing or tail to fill up with water more quickly and sink. Finally, the plane went down two weeks ago, so if any wreckage is recovered, it could be hundreds of miles from the crash site.

      At this point, I'm going to guess that no wreckage will be found, or it will be found too late to provide any useful information about the location of the plane beyond confirming that it's in the southern Indian Ocean. Given that, we are talking about an underwater search using sonar that is going to cover hundreds of thousands of square miles, in waters up to 16,000 feet deep. That would require either years of effort, or a small fleet of underwater vehicles scanning the seafloor. This assumes that the deductions made from the satellite data are even correct. It's not impossible, but it is very, very difficult. My guess is that new technologies- making it possible for robotic vehicles to scan larger areas of seafloor, in higher resolution than ever before- may be necessary.

    4. Re:Not new information by rossdee · · Score: 1

      "So you're another Communist sympathizer eh?"

      The countries he refered to " [a-z]stans" are not communist, although some of them were when they were part of the Soviet Union.
      All of them have no love for Putin or Russia.

      And as for China, well most of the passengers were chinese, so China is entitled to go after whichever terrorist group is responsible.

      I personally think the plane was taken to be used (like the 911 planes) as a weapon, and a more effectivr one if they fill it up with explosives.

      If they were really serious about searching the area 1500 milesSW of WA they (US Navy) would send a carrier, and have a Global hawk flying over the area.

    5. Re:Not new information by rossdee · · Score: 2

      "it's interesting that the aircraft appears to have a heading of 180 (due South), almost exactly on 90 E longitude, and very possibly passing through 90E 0N on it's way heading towards 180S (which was beyond it's range). "

      Theres no such thing as 180 degrees South.
        Latitude goes from 0 (equator) to 90 degrees South (south pole) whereas the north pole is 90 north

    6. Re:Not new information by JMJimmy · · Score: 1

      This is the kind of geek info I expect on Slashdot, not some crappy slate article. Thank you!

    7. Re:Not new information by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 1

      I'd suggest some software issue with a flight navigation system, except that intentional foul play appears to be significantly more likely.

      Very interesting observation about 90/90/90. If the LiIon cargo caught fire and burned out the communications wiring and the pilots turned the plane around for a landing before they succumbed to the fumes and then something related to the fire happened to cause the autopilot to reset, would 90/90/90 be a set of defaults?

      Boeing can answer that question.

      If yes, then a head wind could explain the apparent divergence from the meridian vis-a-vis the assumption of constant speed on the satellite latency.

      The search area does include the meridian to some degree. I think we're assuming here that it ran out of fuel before it reached Antarctica.

      --
      My God, it's Full of Source!
      OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
    8. Re:Not new information by OneAhead · · Score: 1

      Deranged offtopic rant of the day. Where are the moderators when you need them?

    9. Re: Not new information by Hal_Porter · · Score: 2

      Gentlemen! We have found the state sponsor responsible for the terrorist attack on MH370. We start bombing in five minutes.

      --
      echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
    10. Re:Not new information by Anonyme+Connard · · Score: 1

      Regarding AF447, what was spotted 24 hours later was not from the plane but pieces of wood. Actual remains were found 5 days later.

    11. Re:Not new information by Aighearach · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I agree totally, but I think it is dubious to put the families and public through this much disinformation.

      There is really no reason to think it crashed. That was a good first guess when it was just "missing," but since we know it was taken by the crew, that would seem to reset the whole idea. What new information is consistent with a crash? None.

      They just keep parading this absurd "2500 nautical mile" BS. That is the range if they had loaded fuel for a flight to Beijing. But the plane has a range of over 7000 miles fully loaded. Nobody has produced anything that even claims to verify or offer proof that the aircraft was fueled the way the paperwork says. And you would need an airport free of corruption to even have a chance of proving it; if lots of fuel is regularly being stolen or otherwise misappropriated, there is simply no possible way to verify the fuel that was loaded.

      And the whole idea, "well gee, they stole a vehicle, and it was supposed to only had a half tank of gas... it must have crashed because it didn't get to the destination!" That is a real Keystone Kops sort of scenario to be saying that. It is pretty obviously BS. The most likely reason to hijack it is to take hostages. The next most likely is to use the plane as a missile in the future. The next most likely is to sell it off. The whole "pilot suicide" thing seems pretty silly. You'd need a suicide pact between multiple crew members to pull that off, and the co-pilot was new. Much more likely is a religious, political, or criminal association between them. And in that scenario, a suicide pact would involve crashing into something, not just flying off over the ocean until the fuel runs out.

      The whole misinformation scheme is dangerous; if they rescue the passengers, fine. Then they'll be beyond most criticism. But that is a long-shot. If the terrorists suddenly show up on TV killing hostages, all the misinformation will look really bad, and they'll get a huge propaganda coup. In other words... they better know where the plane is and have special forces on the ground, or they're just being idiots.

    12. Re:Not new information by Solandri · · Score: 1

      I think that we are going to be in for a very, very long wait before we find out what happened

      It's possible we'll never find out what happened even if we find the plane. The cockpit voice recorder only records the last 30-120 minutes of audio. Since most everyone agrees the flight flew on for 7 hours after the "incident" which caused it to deviate from its flight plan, the CVR is unlikely to contain any which could explain what happened. The flight data recorder records about 24 hours, but can be turned off manually from inside the plane with a circuit breaker. If the prevailing theory that this was a deliberate act by a trained pilot is correct, he likely pulled the breaker for the FDR when he killed the transponder.

    13. Re: Not new information by RockDoctor · · Score: 1

      Gentlemen! We have found the state sponsor responsible for the terrorist attack on MH370. We start bombing in five minutes.

      That sounds like a good reason to get out of Seattle!

      (Seattle is the capitol city of Washington state, isn't it? Not my country, nor my continent. And I can't even remember when I last noticed that I was flying on a Boeing.)

      --
      Birds are not dinosaur descendants;birds are dinosaurs, for all useful meanings of "birds", "are" and "dinosaurs"
    14. Re:Not new information by fuzzy2k · · Score: 1

      So you're another Communist sympathizer eh? Yet you hate on Russia for acting on the will of ethnic Russians in Crimea? I'm not saying Crimea's ceding to Russia is or is not right or wrong. I am saying the evil communists that the US Government claimed would destroy the American way of life has not changed but the willingness of certain governments and corporations to turn a blind-eye is appalling. Obama makes Bush II look like an amateur in terms of destroying the US Constitution and Bill of Rights. For a legal scholar specialising in constitutional law Barack H. Obama is a traitor and deserves imprisonment in Club Gitmo with 24/7 video feed to the Internet so everyone can see the traitor slowly go insane due to complete isolation.

      Oops. I read that. Now I think I have whiplash. This turned from an MH370 story to WTF so quickly, I am thankful I am still alive. I guess I better close the browser window before I hit another turn so sharp it snaps my neck or makes my head explode.

      --
      --- Say something clever. Pretend it was me. Thanks.
  2. CNN's Black Hole theory... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    http://www.mediaite.com/tv/cnns-don-lemon-is-it-preposterous-to-think-a-black-hole-caused-flight-370-to-go-missing/

    Don Lemmon: " “is it preposterous” to consider a black hole as a possibility?"

    ' Mary Schiavo, a former Inspector General for the U.S. Department of Transportation, said, “A small black hole would suck in our entire universe, so we know it’s not that.” '

    Our brightest minds are working on this...

    1. Re:CNN's Black Hole theory... by Smerta · · Score: 2

      When I heard that exchange at an airport, I wanted to reach through the TV screen and strangle both of those idiots.

      Look, not everyone's a scientist or engineer, but don't just start spouting off shit like you know what you're talking about. Lemon's question was inane, but Schiavo's answer was so absurd, my fourth-grade daughter, who's recently learned /of/ black holes, tilted her head in a "WTF?!?!" kind of way when I replayed that video for her the next day.

    2. Re:CNN's Black Hole theory... by Smerta · · Score: 1

      When I heard that exchange at an airport, I wanted to reach through the TV screen and strangle both of those idiots.

      Look, not everyone's a scientist or engineer, but don't just start spouting off shit like you know what you're talking about. Lemon's question was inane, but Schiavo's answer was so absurd, my fourth-grade daughter, who's recently learned /of/ black holes, tilted her head in a "WTF?!?!" kind of way when I replayed that video for her the next day.

    3. Re:CNN's Black Hole theory... by ComputersKai · · Score: 1
      One word: Aliens...and the CIA. :)

      No, to be quite honest, I believe there is a chance that the aircraft is still intact, because neither the wreck nor the black-box's tramission signal has been found yet. Still, I am not a professional on this, so you can't be sure.

    4. Re:CNN's Black Hole theory... by pieisgood · · Score: 1
      --
      Eat sleep die
    5. Re:CNN's Black Hole theory... by Chewbacon · · Score: 1

      You mean government officials don't know everything? C'mon, if Schiavo said a tiny black hole would suck in our entire universe, then obviously science will bend to her words!

      --
      Chewbacon
      The Bible is like Wikipedia: written by a bunch of people and verifiable by questionable sources.
    6. Re:CNN's Black Hole theory... by kenwd0elq · · Score: 1

      Sorry; not "brightest minds". The movie quote you're looking for is "We have top men working on this." "Who?" "Top ... Men".

    7. Re:CNN's Black Hole theory... by slashmydots · · Score: 4, Funny

      Well then I hope the Langoliers don't get them.

    8. Re:CNN's Black Hole theory... by JazzHarper · · Score: 1

      OK, other than a simple, "Yes", how do you think Schiavo should have responded? (Let us assume that none of the "experts" on the panel know anything more about black holes than she does, so she's on the spot.)

    9. Re:CNN's Black Hole theory... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Why do you think he's quoting a movie and not simply making a comment?

    10. Re:CNN's Black Hole theory... by PolygamousRanchKid+ · · Score: 1

      The plane is in Russia.

      The Russian Raja "You know I'm, Vlad, I'm bad," Putin declared that he has annexed the territory of the plane, which is now part of the Russian Federation, on wishes of the Russian-speaking passengers of the plane.

      The plane was carrying rebel NSA operatives, who are part of a Mulder-Scullyist-Snowden freedom-fries-fighters group known as "The Stoned Gunmen", who were trying to flee to China via Malaysia from Indonesia on their way to the asylum known as "Sancuary" for people over 30 years old, because they uncovered the Truth, that is out there, that the NSA is blackmailing Barack Obama into submission with false documentation of his birth in Indonesia and identity of his real father, Haji Muhammad Suharto, the former Indonesian dictator, which is false, because it is clearly documented that Obama was born in Kenya, and is the grandson of Haile Selassie, so the NSA activated their back orifice devices, which were in the personal electronic devices of all the passengers on the plane, which may be turned on when the Captain indicates that it is safe to do so, which have the collective power to divert the course of the plane in the direction of the NSA Dr. Evil Island US Air Force Base of Diego Garcia, where "The Stoned Gunmen" were to be treated with the pacifying mind control drugs secretly distributed by Obamacare, that will allow the NSA to direct Obama to change the Constitution, or just plain ignore it, like the government has been doing recently, so that Obama can serve as the NSA stooge as the President of the United States of America, until the NSA decides that they have no further use for him, so the US really has all the radar data on the flight path of the plane, which can be seen on the "Big Board" in the "War Room", where fighting is not allowed, but the NSA won't give out the flight path information, since that would lead everyone to Diego Garcia, but Putin knows this anyway, and was planning to invade the island, but the NSA carefully orchestrated the current Crimean crisis to distract "You know I'm, Vlad, I'm bad," Putin's military, so that his only chance of granting "The Stoned Gunmen" asylum in the Snowden Sheraton was to declare the plane as part of the Russian Federation.

      It all fits together nicely, when you just stop to think about it.

      Unfortunately for the NSA, Hillary Clinton is not pleased with the NSA plans to keep on Obama as President indefinitely, so she is rallying her forces in a counter-plot, where she has found an unlikely ally in Sarah Palin and her militia of redneck duck hunters, with the intention of installing a new regime in the US, with Hillary Clinton as President, and Sarah Palin as Vice-President, which will reveal the Truth about the plane, but the NSA is trying to counter this counter-plot, by . . .

      --
      Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
    11. Re:CNN's Black Hole theory... by DarkOx · · Score: 2

      She could respond with I don't know, i'm not an astrophysics expert. She should then go on to explain that occam's razor says the simplest explanation is usually the correct one, so we will should really confirm plane hasn't crashed into the sea or on land somewhere before we devote a lot of effort into considering extraordinary possibilities like black holes.

      --
      Repeal the 17th Amendment TODAY! Also Please Read http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/right-to-read.html
    12. Re:CNN's Black Hole theory... by rossdee · · Score: 2

      "Black Boxes" are actually ORANGE so they will show up easier after a crash.

    13. Re:CNN's Black Hole theory... by JWSmythe · · Score: 1

      The black box holds the black inside. That's what runs the quantum singularity drive on modern aircraft. They color the exterior orange as a warning to never open it. In the case the black box exterior is compromised, it must be placed in a static bag and delivered to Area 51 immediately.

      All that information is available in file [redacted], available from [redated] by contacting [redacted].

      Wait.. You did have the security clearance to know the first part, right? I hope so.

      --
      Serious? Seriousness is well above my pay grade.
    14. Re:CNN's Black Hole theory... by JWSmythe · · Score: 1

      You're tinfoil hat seems to be slightly out of adjustment. As luck would have it, I'm running a special sale on tinfoil hat adjustments this week. For the standard adjustment, the price is normally $400, but during this special it's only $325.

      --
      Serious? Seriousness is well above my pay grade.
    15. Re:CNN's Black Hole theory... by kenwd0elq · · Score: 1

      Because it would be funnier if he's mocking the arrogant twits at the end of "Raiders of the Lost Ark" rather than emulating them.

    16. Re:CNN's Black Hole theory... by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      I was taught to answer those types of questions with, "well, the Martians might be massing for an invasion tomorrow. We can't disprove the possibility!"

  3. Credibility of Indonesian military by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    "If the plane did travel south, its path should be detectable on stored Indonesian military radar returns." - Indonesian military is bunch of completely corrupted incompetent fools. SAR team should not trust a single information from Indonesia. The military radars that Indonesian military is suppose to have, probably don't even exist. Someone took money and never delivered the radars.

    1. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by dbIII · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Even if they are competent they do not have complete coverage, don't give a shit about obvious non-military aircraft at high altitude, and even it they are logging stuff why would they log stuff of that sort that's just passing over?
      Having different goals does not mean stupid or incompetent. They do not have some huge chain of radar stations designed to identify incoming ICBMs - they never had a need for such a thing.

    2. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by AK+Marc · · Score: 2

      The best current thought is that they went south. The fact that Indonesia didn't see them pass right through the monitored airspace is fact enough.

    3. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Planes aren't obviously non-military. Most aircraft are dual-purpose. The US AWACS are 707-based, and so on. If it's so obvious, why have there been issues with commercial planes at cruise? If they don't look that high, who saw the U2 that was shot down?

    4. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by MichaelSmith · · Score: 1

      Australian here. Small boats regularly depart illegally from Indonesian beaches, heading for other countries and when told about it, the Indonesians show zero interest in arresting and charging the crews and passengers or even taking them back. Basically they don't gave two shits about whatever enters or leaves their country.

    5. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by dbIII · · Score: 1

      Yes, but they really do not care about a U2, AWACS or ICBM either. Their primary role is probably keeping track of their own military aircraft in real time and they may not even have logged data to look back at.

    6. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by KeensMustard · · Score: 4, Informative

      Small boats regularly depart illegally from Indonesian beaches,

      It 's not illegal to leave Indonesia by boat.

      heading for other countries and when told about it, the Indonesians show zero interest in arresting and charging the crews and passengers or even taking them back.

      People travel by boat between countries all the time. In my country (also Australia) 30,541 boats arrived here in the 2011/2012 FY. That's just the commercial vessels, not including pleasure craft, navy visits etc.

      Of course the Indonesians aren't interested in stopping something that is not illegal or immoral, or damaging to their economy, or ours.

    7. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by AK+Marc · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Why pay millions for a system that can track a U2 then configure it so that it can not detect a U2? All the military systems available would track a commercial plane, and you'd be asserting that they bought a commercial system, then disabled it. Or built their own, costing more than the commercial systems, and built it "worse" than the commercial systems.

      Much more likely, they have expensive systems that they don't know how to work, and they spend most of their time off or broken, and they feel too embarrassed about it to explain why they didn't have coverage.

      Sort of like why Saddam had a "chemical weapons" program. If everyone knew he didn't have it, then he expected a revolt or invasion. So he pretends to have one (apparently so well that he fools the President who can't be fooled again). Indonesia may be doing the same with their military capability.

    8. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by MichaelSmith · · Score: 1

      Small boats regularly depart illegally from Indonesian beaches,

      It 's not illegal to leave Indonesia by boat.

      So what, they get their passports stamped when they pile on to leaky old fishing boats and then head for ashmore reef?

    9. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by dbIII · · Score: 2
      Their military is to deal with internal threats. For the rest they have been a US ally for decades (up to the point of giving for donation to the Republican party to President Ford in person in Jakarta on 7 December 1975 (the last time they dealt with an external power militarily), but that's another story).

      and they feel too embarrassed about it to explain why they didn't have coverage

      They use donated ex-US systems apparently, so don't run it down too much, you'd be critisizing your own country :)

      Indonesia may be doing the same with their military capability.

      They have a bit of a military nuclear program (mostly stalled since the 1960s) and your taxes probably paid for most of it since most parts are US made.

    10. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by dbIII · · Score: 1

      The USA has been giving Indonesia military aid since 1962.

    11. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by craighansen · · Score: 1

      The plane might have traveled to the west of Indonesia before turning south. The intermediate satellite angle information could help distinguish when and where the plane turned southward.

    12. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Their military is to deal with internal threats.

      Then why would they need any radar at all? It's there only to look for suicide planes attacking the government buildings? They why lie to the international crowd about their international capabilities?

      They use donated ex-US systems apparently, so don't run it down too much, you'd be critisizing your own country :)

      Then my point stands, they have systems fully capable of tracking commercial flights, why would they have deliberately sabotaged their own equipment to not look at most of the sky? Or are you asserting that the old US systems can't track commercial flights?

    13. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      One military strategy is to insist you have the best possible technology, and nobody can cross your border undetected.

      Another is to pretend you're a bunch of bumbling backwards idiots, so that people won't know your capabilities. They'll have to guess, and so if they attack you have a better chance to track them.

      I don't think we have any way to distinguish between the Indonesians being uncooperative, and being incapable. What we do know is that they haven't provided any useful radar data, and are unlikely to; and we also know that tells us nothing about their radar capabilities. The same can be said for Thailand in this case.

    14. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      The fact that Indonesia didn't see them pass right through the monitored airspace is fact enough.

      The Indonesian radar also didn't see them land in California, so my guess is they're stuck in Lodi.

    15. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      You seem unable to distinguish between leaving a place, and arriving at a place.

      I suspect there is no cure.

    16. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      No, they absolutely are NOT worried about "any foreign military power penetrating their airspace." That is a Major Power sort of concern. Their military airspace concern is that if they go to war with a neighbor, are they able to track enough of the attackers to mount a defense. Since they would likely have equivalent technology to their enemy, the less the enemy knows about their radar the better their air defenses will perform. They aren't going to be able to establish an American-style "air superiority." The enemy WILL penetrate their airspace, and bomb stuff too. Initial early detection of the first attack is not going to be significant.

    17. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Indonesian indicated an explicit coverage area. The current thought is that they passed through without Indonesia detecting them. Why?

    18. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      The US still flies the U2 all over the place, usually undetected. It is not immediately obvious that Indonesia has the necessary components for that. And using older Soviet tech, you'd have to invest a huge amount of electricity to try to scan the whole sky at high altitude. A country like Indonesia, even if they have that radar, are unlikely to be running it in high power mode outside of drills.

      The idea that they spent a bunch of money on a fancy radar, and are just too embarrassed to purchase training, well... that is farcical.

      The reason Saddam had a chemical weapons program is because he was gassing Iranians in the 80s. During the Gulf War he didn't use them, because he knew they would make Americans mad enough to destroy Baghdad. Everyone knew he didn't still have it, because he declared it all as part of the agreement to end the Gulf War. It was then all destroyed under US supervision. He did not pretend to still have it, in fact he kept pointing to the fact that the Americans had already watched it all be destroyed. Which was verified by the Iraq War when the "new" "weapons program" turned out to be an agricultural pesticide truck with standard chemicals.

    19. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      Their military is to deal with internal threats.

      Then why would they need any radar at all?

      Because friendly fire isn't friendly.

    20. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      Why would one not be logging everything?... Are they afreid of running out of papyrus on which to write the entries...

      Older analog radar systems might indeed need lots of papyrus, or other paper, to print those logs... or a lot of reel to reel tapes. More likely you run the recording in a loop, and if a war starts, you start unwrapping new reels.

    21. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      An "internal threat" that has airpower is what? Military revolt? Then why wouldn't the military coup take the radar too? Or a guy in a Cesna packed with C4? Miliraty radar won't pick that up if he knows military radar is looking for it. Fly at 50 foot or lower, treetop. Of course, you can carry more on a motorbike than in a Cessna, but nobody said those internal threats were smart.

    22. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      The idea that they spent a bunch of money on a fancy radar, and are just too embarrassed to purchase training, well... that is farcical.

      And your argument that they spent a bunch of money on a fancy radar and are too cheap to turn it on (or mostly on) is more reasonable?

    23. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by KeensMustard · · Score: 1

      So what, they get their passports stamped when they pile on to leaky old fishing boats and then head for ashmore reef?

      Your question doesn't make a lot of sense.

      Of course the vast majority of departures go through customs. Australians who leave Bali, for example, would go through customs (hopefully, remembering to check their boogey board bag for anything that might cause trouble at that juncture).

      However, Refugees who are seeking asylum pursuant to their human rights (UNCHR) and under the UN Convention of Refugees (UNCR) often arrive in Indonesia, a country which is not a signatory to the UNCR, and are thus stuck in a form of legal limbo. They are not processed by Indonesian Immigration per se, and either find themselves in a form of detention, or under the care of the UN or an aid organisation. It is not illegal for these people to leave because from the Indonesian perspective these people don't have a legal status.

    24. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by dbIII · · Score: 1

      Older Soviet tech? This is Indonesia we are discussing! The US has been arming Indonesia against "communists" (such as the East Timor democracy) since the very early 1960s.
      The bit on Iraq is correct though.

    25. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by dbIII · · Score: 1

      From what I've heard they don't have much in the way of fancy radar to turn on, but they did get it for free or at a discount. That's only what makes it into public information of course, I don't actually know what they have.

    26. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by LoRdTAW · · Score: 1

      mmmm yes. I suspect the radars were nothing more than satellite dishes attached to a box full of pinball machine parts.

    27. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Their stated capability, if working, would have detected it if it went on the currently prime path. Yet Indonesia is searchg for it in the area past its own coverage. The assumption is that it made it through undetected, with radar that should have detected it.

    28. Re:Credibility of Indonesian military by dbIII · · Score: 1

      An "internal threat" that has airpower is what?

      As an aside that did actually happen in Indonesia, although the airpower was supplied by spooks from a different government:
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A...

      Fast forward only about four years and the US was providing military support to help the Indonesian government (that had somehow been painted "communist" - it's like calling Reagan a commie) against the rebels Pope had been running bombing missions for. The history of the CIA back then is astonishing and makes it clear that there was no adult supervision and probably a lot of consumption of illegal drugs.
      Anyway, from 1962 onwards, and especially after the Vietnam war, Indonesia has received it's military equipment and nuclear technology (nominally "civilian", but run by the military) from the USA.

  4. At least they didn't fly to Guam by Brett+Buck · · Score: 4, Funny

    Because the extra weight may have caused the island to capsize:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

    1. Re:At least they didn't fly to Guam by Trax3001BBS · · Score: 1

      Because the extra weight may have caused the island to capsize:

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

      Oh god that was painful to watch, width, it's the width! I have to give them credit for not laughing at the capsize remark.

    2. Re:At least they didn't fly to Guam by smittyoneeach · · Score: 1

      That isolated clod is the birthplace of many a fine Claude, you insensitive clod!

      --
      Get thee glass eyes, and, like a scurvy politician, seem to see things thou dost not.--King Lear
  5. Black box radio beacon ? by invictusvoyd · · Score: 2

    I'm no aviation expert but if I were to design a black box , I'd put a radio beacon on it (activated on impact) and a sonar beacon (activated on being submerged) . Someone on /. had pointed out that they already have such beacons which ping for 30 days after activation. Why are they not picking any of that? Have they used submarines in the search?

    1. Re:Black box radio beacon ? by davester666 · · Score: 2

      No. You are the first person who has thought of this. You should call 911, and get them to forward your valuable hint to the head of the search effort.

      --
      Sleep your way to a whiter smile...date a dentist!
    2. Re:Black box radio beacon ? by Solandri · · Score: 5, Informative

      The planes have ELTs designed to activate upon impact and relay their GPS location to satellites (Steve Fossett's plane would've been found within hours if he had had one of these). AFAIK those aren't waterproof though. The escape slides (which double as rafts) should have EPIRBs aboard, which are waterproof. However if the rafts aren't deployed then obviously they'll sink and the EPIRBs won't do a whole lot of good.

      The black boxes give off a 35 KHz acoustic ping every second. The batteries should be good for 30-35 days. Unfortunately, 35 KHz sound attenuates rapidly in seawater, so you only likely to hear it up to about 2 km away. If the plane is sitting in more than 2 km of water, the only way you'll hear the pings is if you're very lucky on the surface, or from deep water submersibles.

      I think the assumption was that you would have enough radar data to narrow down the search area to a few hundred or few thousand square km at most. AF447 was probably considered a fluke. Now that a second plane has "disappeared" in a similar manner, expect to see the required locating equipment changed. One obvious change would be to equip all commercial aircraft with an EPIRB designed to float free if the plane sinks. It won't give you the plane's exact location due to wind and currents, but it'll prevent these "we have no idea where the plane is" situations. Unlike the previous locating idea posted on /. which cost $100k per plane, an EPIRB only costs a few hundred dollars.

    3. Re:Black box radio beacon ? by hankwang · · Score: 4, Informative

      "they already have such beacons which ping for 30 days after activation. Why are they not picking any of that? "

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...

      Typical detection range is 5 km. Say the plane can be in a 2000x2000 sq km area. Then you have to search in a search path that is 200x2000=400,000 km long. That's 10x around the earth and will take a while.

      And the ocean is 4 km deep once you're well away from land; because of the vertical distance you have less horizontal range.

    4. Re:Black box radio beacon ? by kenwd0elq · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Ummmm....... Not necessarily so. Sound under water can be ducted through sound channels and convergence zones. Depending on the depth/pressure, the salinity, and the temperature, faint noises can by heard by a hydrophone hundreds of miles away - but NOT detectable on a hydrophone a half-mile away that isn't at the sound channel depth. (Source: I was an airborne acoustic sensor operator for several years in P-3 Orion ASW aircraft, long long ago). I'm guessing that every US submarine that transits the IO for the next ten years will have secondary tasking to search for MH370.

      Of course, if the airplane is on the bottom, in the mud, or in an abyssal trench, the sound could be muffled and not audible even a dozen yards away. Since we have essentially no clue where the airplane is (except that we can be pretty sure it isn't in the "black hole" between Don Lemon's ears) the whole search effort is, essentially, a crap shoot.

      We actually had better data on the Air France jet that went down in the Atlantic a few years ago. They eventually recovered the flight data recorders, although it took almost 2 years. But we had a pretty good idea of the track of the aircraft, even though we didn't know WHEN it had gone down.

      Here, we can't even be certain that it went down. There are only three good chances for what happened to it. 1) It went down at sea. 2) It crashed into the jungle. Or 3), it landed someplace and is being hidden. The only thing we can be certain of is that it's not flying any longer.

    5. Re:Black box radio beacon ? by Trax3001BBS · · Score: 1

      "they already have such beacons which ping for 30 days after activation. Why are they not picking any of that? "

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...

      Solandri answers that above.

      The link did answer my question as to where one would place an EPIRB (distress radiobeacon) also mentioned by Solandri, right to the fuselage.

      FTA "ULBs are also sometimes required to be attached directly to an aircraft fuselage."

    6. Re:Black box radio beacon ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Note that the ELTs and EPIRBs are designed to aid rescuers ("take the search out of search and rescue"), and so their design doesn't really consider accidents which are clearly unsurvivable, because in those scenarios there is nobody to rescue.

      Your typical air crash goes like this:

      Bob owns a Cessna 172, he likes to fly around in the open countryside, far from big cities and crowded airspace, it's a quick way to get around and he loves the feeling of flying. This morning Bob did the paperwork for a 2 hour flight to Tinytown, leaving his wife to do housework, but absent-minded Bob took off in the wrong direction toward Little Hampton (3.5 hours away). After almost two hours Bob realised his mistake, he no longer has enough fuel to return to his departure point, he can't make it to Little Hampton and he's far from Tinytown, nobody will know where he is. Consulting his charts Bob sees what he thinks is a disused airfield and heads for that. Alas, Bob was flustered by his earlier error, got the headings wrong, and is now travelling North instead of South, by the time he realises this further error, his engine splutters out and Bob crashes into a tree at the edge of a clearing that wasn't quite big enough for the attempted landing. Luckily for Bob the plane does not catch fire, but he is now lying unconscious in the twisted wreckage about 40 miles from the nearest dwelling. Nobody sees it happen.

      Without an ELT, Bob is on his own probably until next sunrise, and perhaps longer. Even if his wife wonders why he didn't call her in an hour or two, it may be getting dark already. When she calls Tinytown, they'll say he isn't there, but that leaves a lot of other options. A serious search won't begin until tomorrow when it's apparent Bob never landed anywhere in the vicinity. If Bob is mostly uninjured he might manage to walk out of the crash or attract attention and get rescued, otherwise he'll have to wait until volunteers criss-crossing the countryside stumble onto his wreck. There's a good chance that Bob, who survived the initial accident, will die in the course of the next 8-12 hours.

      With an ELT, very likely the local SAR is informed that Bob's plane seems to be in trouble within about 5-10 minutes. They call Bob's home phone number (he should have listed several alternate numbers, but probably didn't). His wife answers, yes, Bob is out flying his plane. She believes he is going to Tinytown. Is he OK? The SAR don't know, but promise to stay in touch. They get a location either with the first message from the plane (GPS-ELT), or about 10-15 minutes later as satellites triangulate the signal (cheap older ELT or GPS didn't work). They then find a volunteer to go take a look from the nearest airport, maybe with a first aider aboard (this is the back of nowhere, so they almost certainly don't have a dedicated paramedic for this work). The volunteer eventually sees Bob's plane on the ground where the ELT said it was, 90 minutes or so after he crashed, and tries to figure out where to put down the first aider to best help. The first aider eventually gets to Bob two hours after the crash, and both ground and air resources can now be tasked to get Bob to an ER for treatment. There is much better chance that Bob survives this way, despite his own stupidity.

    7. Re:Black box radio beacon ? by flyingsquid · · Score: 3, Interesting

      It would seem like there should be a number of options for tracking planes. For $150 and $100 annual service charge, you can buy a SPOT personal GPS tracking device that will broadcast your position every five minutes. It needs an unobstructed view of the sky to work. In other words, stick it up on the dash of the airplane.

      FLYHT Aerospace from Calgary sells a satellite tracking system that sends routine updates on position, heading, altitude, and airspeed via satellite. It is also designed to be able to function as a black box. It's too expensive to be continuously transmitting the data, but it's set up so that during certain circumstances the device will trigger, and then transmit flight data in real time. The system is already in use by a number of companies, including Netjets, but hasn't been widely adopted by larger aircraft. If the system had been installed on the Air France flight, they would not have had to wait two years for the black box data. If it had been installed here, it could have tracked the plane or, if the pilot turned it off, they would have immediately known that there was a problem. This is the one that costs $100,000 but you're talking about a plane that can cost $260,000,000; requiring that companies install satellite tracking is not going to radically change the price of the aircraft, and presumably as technology improves the price will come down.

      And of course what a lot of people in the media seem to be missing is that the plane in question already had satellite communications, it just wasn't using them. The engines were designed to talk to a satellite; it should have been possible to use that system to routinely send position data. Many planes have internet in flight. If the planes are already capable of using satellite internet, then it's just an issue of being able to send position/speed/heading data over the plane's wifi network. It just strikes me as amazing that after all the security theater following 9/11, we have a system that carefully controls how much shampoo you can bring in your carry-on luggage, yet is completely incapable of responding if someone steals an entire aircraft.

    8. Re:Black box radio beacon ? by HJED · · Score: 1

      I would imagine that these sensors in the engines that talk to satelites may be somewhat difficult to shut-down (given that they weren't shut-down when the plane was diverted originally). If it was hijacked they would probably have to work that out before they can fly it again.
      One thing I am interested in though is I swear early on they were saying that some passengers cell phones were ringing (but no answers), why has no one tried to locate these?

      --
      null
    9. Re:Black box radio beacon ? by HJED · · Score: 1

      The plane did have systems for location tracking with satellites, they were turned off by a person or persons unknown. (one of the theories was the satellite array broke, but that doesn't make sense with the engine data).

      --
      null
    10. Re:Black box radio beacon ? by camperdave · · Score: 1

      Well, engine pings have been all over the news, so something that was once overlooked may now have been "corrected".

      As far as cell phones "ringing", that could just be the cell network giving the caller feedback that the network is trying to connect.

      --
      When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
    11. Re:Black box radio beacon ? by wvmarle · · Score: 1

      What may be impossible to shut down when flying, may be easy to do when on the ground.

      Cutting the appropriate wire will do. If that's a problem for the engines, ground the aerial sending out the ping. It may not be easy to do, but it can be done for sure. Everything on an aircraft is accessible when it's on the ground.

    12. Re:Black box radio beacon ? by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      . I'm guessing that every US submarine that transits the IO for the next ten years will have secondary tasking to search for MH370.

      Almost certainly not since the pings will fall silent in the next two weeks.
       

      We actually had better data on the Air France jet that went down in the Atlantic a few years ago. They eventually recovered the flight data recorders, although it took almost 2 years. But we had a pretty good idea of the track of the aircraft, even though we didn't know WHEN it had gone down.

      Actually, they had a pretty good idea of when it went down... It ended up taking two years to find because the weather in the area prevented 24/7/365 searches and the availability of suitable equipment and support vessels meant a search expedition could only be mounted at intervals. (I.E. it's not like they searched for two years, more like six weeks spread across two years.)

    13. Re:Black box radio beacon ? by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      A basic hand-held broad-frequency detection tool as used by private investigators and other security professionals to discover "bugs" would help. It took them 7 hours to turn it off. It was pinging once an hour. 2 hours you know it pings every hour. 3rd hour you know which part of the plane it is in. 4th hour you find the panel. 5th hour you narrow it to a set of devices. 6th hour you find the exact device. 7th hour you're looking at the schematics deciding which plug to pull.

      That assumes basic security preparation, community-college electronics repair tech knowledge, and access to off-the-shelf hand scanners. So, one guy, perhaps one of the 2 Iranians on the flight with forged documents, having been a security tech for some Mullah from Beckybeckystanistan.

  6. Link to Detailed Account: Anyone Know Air Routes? by careysub · · Score: 4, Informative

    Here is a very detailed account of the trajectory data now available from Reuters. Maybe someone on this board knows air routes in South East Asia and can provide analysis or pointers to useful maps?

    --
    Starships were meant to fly, Hands up and touch the sky - Nicky Minaj
  7. Re:Sigh. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    I think you misunderstand the precision possible in timing these days. GPS just works by clocks in spacecraft announcing the current time; relative delays get you sub-meter accuracy. Sub-microsecond timing is not hard.

  8. Re:Sigh. by hh10k · · Score: 1

    You should read about how GPS works. Then you'll understand what they're talking about with the ping taking longer.

  9. Re: Sigh. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    Yes they do. (Or very nearly -- the index of refraction of air to RF pulses is very nearly 1)

  10. Radar data by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    No country will give the radar data..they a secret regarding military capability.. If they have any information they won't tell it because it will give their coverage.. If they don't have anything then too as it will show the lack of it..

  11. Headed South? by DeathElk · · Score: 2

    If any trace is found in Australian waters, it will either be detained or culled.

  12. Where do we get people like that from? by dbIII · · Score: 1

    Don Lemmon: " “is it preposterous” to consider a black hole as a possibility?"

    Most definitely (as the above poster and most readers will have spotted).
    We live in a universe with Stephen Hawking in it instead of a fictional one with Dan Brown's characters in it. Due to that a black hole with a mass of a bus has a life of under a second. Why are we giving bodybuilders air time to regurgitate their thoughts misinformed by novels that rely on incredibly fucking stupid plot devices?

  13. Re: Sigh. by ClickOnThis · · Score: 5, Informative

    Radio transmissions do not occur at the speed of light.

    Radio waves and light waves are both electromagnetic radiation, just at different wavelengths. In vacuum, electromagnetic radiation travels at speed c for all wavelengths. In non-vacuum media, there may be some dispersive effects that cause the speed to change with wavelength, but those effects are very small in air.

    In short, radio waves travel at the speed of light because, in a very real sense, radio waves are light, just not light at a wavelength our eyes can see.

    --
    If it weren't for deadlines, nothing would be late.
  14. Re:Link to Detailed Account: Anyone Know Air Route by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

    Skyvector is your friend.

  15. The most plausible theory - written by a pilot by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

    I believe something like that happened. Occam's razor and so on...

    The fact that the pilot had built his own simulator also has a mundane reason that somebody on pprune had tracked down: He assisted with giving a real pilot's feedback to a third-party developer of aircraft for flight simulators (X-Plane IIRC).

    1. Re:The most plausible theory - written by a pilot by DeathElk · · Score: 1

      The simplest answer is usually correct. Instead we get the typical murdoch media response i.e. the pilots were not Caucasian, they must be terrorists.

    2. Re:The most plausible theory - written by a pilot by Trax3001BBS · · Score: 1

      http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

      I believe something like that happened. Occam's razor and so on...

      FTA "the pilot may have ascended to 45,000 feet in a last-ditch effort to quell a fire by seeking the lowest level of oxygen."

      I've thought this could of been the reason for the ascension but felt if I mentioned it, it would be seen as a cruel joke as the passengers would be incapacitated as well.

    3. Re:The most plausible theory - written by a pilot by HJED · · Score: 2

      The fire theory is further ruled out by the engine data sent to satelites, which would presumably use some of the same systems.

      --
      null
    4. Re:The most plausible theory - written by a pilot by flyingsquid · · Score: 3, Interesting

      http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

      I believe something like that happened. Occam's razor and so on...

      The fact that the pilot had built his own simulator also has a mundane reason that somebody on pprune had tracked down: He assisted with giving a real pilot's feedback to a third-party developer of aircraft for flight simulators (X-Plane IIRC).

      Occam's Razor isn't the simplest explanation, it's the simplest explanation that fits all the facts. And this is definitely not that. According to the fire scenario, there's a fire and so they shut down the electrical systems, set in a new course on autopilot, and after the crew succumbs, the plane keeps going in a straight line... the problem with this scenario is that the plane DOES NOT follow a straight line.

      According to the military radar the plane turns west, climbs to 45,000 feet, then descends to 23,000 feet, turns again, climbs, and flies towards the Indian Ocean- and then the satellite pings suggest it turns again, either north or more likely south, towards the Indian Ocean. All facts suggest that the plane is being actively piloted, and not towards safety but deliberately away from it, in such a way that finding the plane, let alone rescuing the victims, will be impossible.

      The reason that the fire scenario is popular is not because of Occam's Razor, but because it appeals to what we want to believe about human nature, and about the people flying our planes. We'd like to believe that whatever happened, the pilots did their best until the very last, and were heroes trying to save everyone. The alternative is that the person piloting the plane- most likely the pilot or copilot- was a deeply disturbed human being, someone who not only decided to kill everyone on board, people who had entrusted their safety to him, but to do so in a way that would torment their relatives and capture international media attention. It's also unlikely that it would be possible to convince the other pilot to go along with this plan, so they would have to be killed or incapacitated before shutting down the transponders and changing course. Maybe that's not what happened, but that's the simplest explanation that fits all the facts... and it does not point to a hero.

    5. Re:The most plausible theory - written by a pilot by kbahey · · Score: 1

      The electrical fire theory is simple, compelling, and wrong!

  16. Re:Sigh. by AK+Marc · · Score: 3, Informative

    They use a shared TDMA return to best allocate bandwidth. The timing is measured in microseconds (and no, not millions of them). The time to the GEO satellite can be learned and used to deduce distance, thus an arc. It's pretty accurate.

  17. Re:Sigh. by WaffleMonster · · Score: 1

    If these pings are the data the engines send to Boeing, then they are supposed to be sent every hour.So ping timings getting lomger? Since the pings are transmitted at the speed of light, over the distance the plane travels the change in ping timing would be too small to measure.

    It depends on resolution of the timing data they have. I wish they would share raw data. Could have been recording clocking of sat link or some such to determine prop delay.

    Also need to keep in mind sat is at geo.. length of actual light path between plane and sat depends on angle/location as well as speed/alt.

  18. Re: Sigh. by Trax3001BBS · · Score: 1

    They most certainly do.

    Newton said the instant the Sun were to just go away the planets would continue in the direction they were headed at the time,

    Einstein first theory of gravity didn't do that as light takes 8 minutes to reach the Earth. 10 years later Einstein refined his theory saying gravity acts at exactly at the speed of light, which satisfied Newton's laws.

    cite: PBS The Elegant Universe - Einsteins Dream

    So no, they don't

  19. Re: Sigh. by Trax3001BBS · · Score: 1

    They most certainly do.

    So no, they don't

    I'd of deleted this if I could, this is just nit picking.

  20. Re:This is the 'Distracting Story of the Week' by chrismcb · · Score: 1

    So what you are saying is there isn't actually a missing plane, they just made it up?

  21. Re:This is the 'Distracting Story of the Week' by Jeremi · · Score: 2

    So what you are saying is there isn't actually a missing plane, they just made it up?

    You have to admit, that would be a pretty good explanation for why they can't find it.... ;)

    --


    I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
  22. could of been by flyingfsck · · Score: 1, Offtopic

    "could of been": Is this Engrish or Ebonics?

    --
    Excuse me, but please get off my Pennisetum Clandestinum, eh!
    1. Re: could of been by Trax3001BBS · · Score: 1

      "could of been": Is this Engrish or Ebonics?

      Trax's way of posting nothing more nothing less.

    2. Re: could of been by Trax3001BBS · · Score: 1

      It's reddit.

      While I hold a very high respect for Aaron Swartz, I don't frequent Reddit on a normal basis. The exception is BF4, Dice used to monitor that area, and I used it to complain of the POS they released; and I'm search-able (spell checker) in that area.

      But I won't belittle Reddit, the IAM section draws many.

  23. Not in Kansas any more by dbIII · · Score: 2

    It's Indonesia. They don't have to worry much about "intruders".

  24. Re: Sigh. by MouseTheLuckyDog · · Score: 1

    OK. So the speed of light in vacum is about 0.033% faster in vacuum then radio transmissions in air. Doesn't affect the precision much.

  25. They looked but did not see the plane by mdsolar · · Score: 1

    The Indonesians have searched their military radar records and did not detect the plane. http://www.antaranews.com/en/n...

  26. You forget the latest theory. by MouseTheLuckyDog · · Score: 1

    The US knew where the plane was all along, thanks to Boeings telemetry. They knew it was hijacked to Pakistan for a terrorist mission. They sent in special forces to kill the terrorists and destroy the planes. To save Pakistan the embarrassment of admitting the plane was hijacked there, the US is reprogramming the black box and is planting debris near Oz.

    I don't subscribe to this theory. After 9/11, I can buy a hijack for terrorist purposes. I cannot buy the idea of a US coverup.

  27. Call me by Patchw0rk+F0g · · Score: 1

    ... when you find the fucking thing.

    --
    When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. ~~ Hunter S. Thompson
  28. Re:Sigh. by TapeCutter · · Score: 2

    ping timing would be too small to measure

    High precision timers are everywhere these days, for example the raw windows performance counters are expressed in units of 100 nanoseconds (10^-7 seconds). Coincidently GPS uses a 50 nanosecond clock tick, which is only twice as fast as what your PC is doing right now. In case you are wondering, light travels about 15 meters in 50 nanoseconds, the accuracy of GPS is improved to better than 15 meters by using multiple satellites and a bit more math.

    --
    And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
  29. Latency? by mdsolar · · Score: 1

    Here is another link saying the same about all seven pings: http://www.themalaymailonline.... "Engineers at Inmarsat Plc, whose satellite picked up the pings, plotted seven positions for the Boeing Co 777-200ER on March 8, Chris McLaughlin, a company spokesman, said in an interview. The plane flew steadily away from the satellite over the equator while pinging, McLaughlin said. Malaysia needs to verify that information, Datuk Azharuddin Abdul Rahman, the chief of the nation’s civil aviation, said in Kuala Lumpur."

    Yet the first ping should have been very near the last radar contact at 2:15 seen on your map. But that position appears to be farther from the satellite than the 5:11 circle. Could they be over correcting for system latency on the aircraft when plotting these circles? Maybe the system is faster when other things are turned off? Perhaps plotted circles need to be expanded out to the East?

  30. It is at Diego Garcia island. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Period!

    1. Re:It is at Diego Garcia island. by nojayuk · · Score: 2

      There isn't anywhere on Diego Garcia to hide MH 370 if it did land there. The only hangar at the airbase is 40 metres front to back and a 777-200ER is over 60 metres nose to tail so it would have to be parked in plain (so to speak) sight of everyone from janitors through pilots and aircrew working there.

      Have a look at the island sometime on Google Earth, search for the Diego Garcia postcode which is BBND 1ZZ. The current image has a number of B-52s and (I think) KC-135 tankers parked on hardsstands; I've seen a B-1B there too in previous images. A 777 is significantly larger than a B-52.

    2. Re:It is at Diego Garcia island. by nojayuk · · Score: 1

      If a Russian (or Chinese or French or Indian or any other nation's) LEO observation satellite crossed over Diego Garcia in the past two weeks then anyone attempting to hide a 65 metre long aircraft on that billiard ball of an island is going to be SOL.

      A 777 doesn't do well on soft ground, it needs to roll on tarmac and concrete so if MH370 is on Diego Garcia island it's either on a hardstand off the runway or in a building attached to the hardstand areas. The only building even close to big enough to take it is a hangar which is, as I said before, only 40 metres deep. I suspect the hangar entrance isn't big enough vertically to even accept the nose of a 777 but I can't make that detail out from the Google Earth pictures.

      Is Tracy Island in the neighbourhood? It could swallow a 777 no problem.

    3. Re:It is at Diego Garcia island. by jonahwinters · · Score: 1

      Hypothetically, I can think of a few ways to hide something large, in plain view. What military doesn't have a large supply of camo-netting? How about parking it on a dark surface and covering it with a few big black tarps? Or it could have been refueled and then taken off again.

    4. Re:It is at Diego Garcia island. by nojayuk · · Score: 1

      Translated from the Chinese: "Oh, look, the hardstand at the tropical Diego Garcia airfield has just sprouted a large rectangular patch of shrubbery usually native only to the West German plain but the really weird thing is that in near IR it's got the shape of a 777 underneath it. How odd, as Confucius might say."

  31. Time for some test flights by mdsolar · · Score: 1

    There seem to be some mathematically irreconcilable things happening here. It is time to test some of these assumptions. A similar plane needs to be flown over proposed routes and altitudes with the same systems shut down to see if the satellite pings are consistent with a GPS log and to see if there are gaps in radar coverage that can account for the plane not turning up in records from Indonesia or Thailand or Myanmar or Bangladesh.

    1. Re:Time for some test flights by camperdave · · Score: 1

      What do you think the folks in the simulators are doing, making cheese?

      --
      When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
    2. Re:Time for some test flights by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      What do you think the folks in the simulators are doing, making cheese?

      Presumably, in a simulator you'd make virtual cheese.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  32. Re: This is the 'Distracting Story of the Week' by davidhoude · · Score: 1

    You should be a detective!

    "Ma'am, I am sorry but we have no reason to believe your child was kidnapped from the park. You see, we conducted a thorough investigation and did not find any hotel rooms booked under your missing daughters name."

  33. Funny and true, in a sad way. by Futurepower(R) · · Score: 1

    "... we have a system that carefully controls how much shampoo you can bring in your carry-on luggage, yet is completely incapable of responding if someone steals an entire aircraft."

  34. Re:It's not terrorists by davidhoude · · Score: 1

    I love how you can dismiss a theory based on your preconceived notions of how terrorists must act. I am sure that they have a playbook and would never consider deviating from what it says.

  35. Re:It'll never be found by HJED · · Score: 1

    They actually haven't covered the whole of the Australian search area yet, its massive and in the middle of nowhere, in bad weather.

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    null
  36. Re:A plausible theory? by HJED · · Score: 1

    That dosen't explain the automated communication systems that got turned off (whilst over satelite systems continued to operate)

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    null
  37. Re: Sigh. by Deadstick · · Score: 1

    Give him a break. He knows at least as much about physics as Mary Schiavo, with her black hole comment.

  38. Map not factual by craighansen · · Score: 4, Informative

    Unfortunately, this map has non-factual locations for the circles other than 8:11. The angle information for the earlier pings has not been released, but artwork was drawn up that estimated these earlier pings from the reported estimated tracks attributed to the NTSB. This artwork, drawn by Scott Henderson, was likely the source for the map on theaviationist.com's site. See http://willyloman.wordpress.co... for details.

    Inmarsat has been coy about the exact value of the ping angles. They issued a press release that said that the information had been given to the Malaysian government, and that anyone who wanted details should contact Malaysia. See http://www.inmarsat.com/news/i... IMHO, they have been doing this because the earlier ping data may make clearer that the aircraft track takes it over Malaysia, where the lack of detection may be a source of official embarrassment.

    The earlier ping data may also indicate whether MH370 overflew Indonesia, or whether it flew west to avoid Indonesia, and that has an effect on the plane's remaining range and the estimate of the flight's bearing when it presumably turned southward toward the 90E/45S region where the SAR operations have been focused lately. It would appear that this data was factored into the NTSB track estimates, but the lack of an official release of the angle data has hampered the armchair/amateur speculation about the location. IMHO, if MH370 avoided overflying Indonesia, it may have been a deliberate attempt to lay a false track in a west or northwest direction.

    1. Re:Map not factual by sadboyzz · · Score: 1

      may be a source of official embarrassment.

      Yes, because the need to avoid "official embarassment" outweighs the needs of the 239 lives on board and the anguished relatives on the ground. Naturally.

  39. Re:Very like the plane hijacking in the 1937 film, by craighansen · · Score: 1

    You might as well consider the similarities to Oceanic 815 - though that flight was Australia to US, apparently ending up at Wallis Island - or not. Unfortunately for your fantastic theory, the current SAR effort is focused on the southern Indian ocean, not Himilaya. While the 8:11 angle estimate has a northern segment, all attention is leading toward the southern segment, at the extremum of the supposed fuel range of the plane.

  40. Re:Link to Detailed Account: Anyone Know Air Route by careysub · · Score: 1

    Thanks! That is what I was looking for.

    --
    Starships were meant to fly, Hands up and touch the sky - Nicky Minaj
  41. Re:Link to Detailed Account: Anyone Know Air Route by craighansen · · Score: 1

    The link is to an article that's a week old, and if you read the article carefully, the plot described ends at 2:15 AM, without knowing whether IGREX was reached. The Inmarsat angle data leads toward the southern Indian Ocean.

  42. Re:Link to Detailed Account: Anyone Know Air Route by ckedge · · Score: 1

    WHAT? That article is from 8 days ago!!! It's still talking about the Andamaan sea!! It says NOTHING about the search off Australia.

    The diagram I saw two days ago showed all seven pings and their exact times (11 minutes past each hour), and that is how they have come up with these small slices of the arc. This article specifically states that:

    http://online.wsj.com/news/art...

    Here is the image I'm talking about:

    http://i1.minus.com/iPcccu2MDL...

    What the NTSB has done is very simple. Assume it's most likely the plane is travelling at a steady speed, not too fast, not too slow, and mathematically match that to the available ping locations. BAM, you have the smalls slices shown there. All of the other areas would require the plane to do wierd things like turn around after the last ping, or slow down excessively, or speed up excessively.

    OP's story/article is a pile of baloney, just like most media coverage. ALL of the pings have been used to create the new search areas, the ones that they've been carefully searching SINCE TUESDAY.

  43. This article has NOTHING NEW, journo is an idiot by ckedge · · Score: 1

    What's that? The pings "got longer"? OMG I've never heard that before, that sounds like new information!, post. post. post. post. post.

    Ummm, except this was all published FIVE DAYS AGO, simply in a more useful form:

    http://i1.minus.com/iPcccu2MDL...

    They've been searching based on this "new information" since TUESDAY:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/201...

    Slate, FutureWise, Jeff Wise, and Timothy, are all idiots who are FIVE DAYS OUT OF DATE.

  44. Re: Sigh. by ClickOnThis · · Score: 1

    Newton said the instant the Sun were to just go away the planets would continue in the direction they were headed at the time,

    More to the point, Newton's law of gravity assumed that gravity acted instantaneously across space.

    Einstein first theory of gravity didn't do that as light takes 8 minutes to reach the Earth. 10 years later Einstein refined his theory saying gravity acts at exactly at the speed of light, which satisfied Newton's laws.

    Einstein didn't have a "first" theory of gravity. His 1905 paper on special relativity had nothing to do with gravity, but it did postulate that no physical effect (including gravity) can propagate faster than light. Ten years later, he finished his general theory, which was indeed about gravity.

    In Einstein's general theory, gravity acts at the speed of light, but that doesn't "satisfy" Newton's assumption of instantaneous action. Einstein's general theory does approach Newton's law for the case of smaller masses and shorter distances. And Newton's law can be "patched" to accommodate the speed-of-light propagation of gravity, but not the other effects in Einstein's general theory, such as large-mass corrections, space-time effects, bending of light by gravity, and so on.

    cite: PBS The Elegant Universe - Einsteins Dream

    I think you might want to watch the show again. BTW, this thread is about radio waves not gravity.

    --
    If it weren't for deadlines, nothing would be late.
  45. Surely the US knows where the plane is by Al+Al+Cool+J · · Score: 1

    The NSA and other US intelligence agencies have gone to insanely extreme lengths to avoid another 9/11 - like monitoring the majority of the world's electronic communications. 9/11 was done using commercial jets as weapons, so surely one of the highest priorities would be tracking every commercial jet that could be used to attack the US or its various military installations, embassies, factories, etc around the globe. Just imagine the shit storm there would be in the halls of power if terrorists pulled off the same trick AGAIN. Nobody in intel would risk that.

    So if they are going to all the trouble of monitoring everybody's texts and gmail, surely they know what happened to MH370. It would be utter incompetence for them not to.

    So why aren't they saying?

    1. Re:Surely the US knows where the plane is by Al+Al+Cool+J · · Score: 1

      And yes I know, "don't call me Shirley"

  46. Dont know if this woukd have helped or not....? by gubol123 · · Score: 1

    But if the passengers were allowed to keep their phones switched on, I am sure some of those phone would have been able to pick up signal somewhere along the way.. I know it flew on vast stretches of ocean, but at least there was some chance it was possible when they were flying low somewhere near the land.... What were your thoughts

  47. Re:This is the 'Distracting Story of the Week' by EnergyScholar · · Score: 1

    Wow, has IQ dropped sharply since I last posted to Slashdot? I didn't claim that the plane didn't disappear. Planes crash all the time. I claimed that this story getting constant 'pay attention to me' billing causes people to ignore more substantive stories. 'Manufactured news' isn't a fake story, it's a 'human interest' story that has been deliberately hyped.

  48. Danger: Spam link by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    Poster posting same link across multiple stories, probably spam or malware.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  49. That is a STUPID theory by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    I believe something like that happened. Occam's razor and so on...

    What does Occam's Razor have to say about a fire bad enough to take out radio and transponders but the plane is able to keep flying for seven hours?

    Hint: NOT POSSIBLE. Which is what many other pilots have also said in response to that article.

    Also not mentioned in that article is that there are large airports even closer than the one mentioned, so why not go to those? And the autopilot was told to turn before the "Good Night" call, why not mention a little thing like OMG FIRE then? Also, if the plane is on auto-pilot to a new airport please explain how that airport does not see them flit right overhead on radar as the autopilot takes them right overhead?

    Even the Black Hole theory makes way more sense than the fire theory, just based on seven hours of flight time alone. PLEASE do not post absurd theories and clutter up the discussion.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  50. Default is not in air by SuperKendall · · Score: 3, Interesting

    If the LiIon cargo caught fire and burned out the communications wiring

    Then the whole plane in out of the air in under an hour. You CANNOT have a fire bad enough to take out all kinds of wiring and have a craft that will still be flying for very long at all, much less seven hours.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:Default is not in air by InvalidError · · Score: 1

      Another problem with the fire theory is that it would still take several minutes for the fire to break out of fire-resistant cargo partitions and cause any actual damage to the plane or passengers. With the number of smoke detectors on planes these days, pilots would have gotten the alarm long before systems would start failing, which should be plenty of time to at least report the emergency and divert to the nearest airport with emergency services.

  51. Doesn't Match by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    They could easily get an old carrier plane and use that without setting off alarms

    But you can't fly that old carrier plane right into the middle of highly protected airspace, where a 777 that has a cloned electronic transponder to match an existing flight going into a major airport can easily waltz into the airspace of a large city before taking a last minute diversion.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:Doesn't Match by MichaelSmith · · Score: 1

      I used to work in ATC and as far as I know, creating a flight plan for your weaponised aircraft would be the major challenge. And its not even hard. You can enter it directly over the web, with the 24 bit airframe ID nicely confirming the output from your modified transponder.

  52. Wait for the flash by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    Terrorists want flashy things that attract attention.>

    Yes they do, which is why they will happily claim credit when the plane delivers a small nuclear weapon or biologic agent dump over a large city somewhere.

    Until then, why would they say anything while they are still setting things up? It could lead to them being interrupted in the process of converting the plane to mimic some other commercial 777.

    I think it's most likely some kind of maintenance failure.

    The most likely thing is that someone stole the plane. All sort of "failure" theories totally fall down between the combination of no further radio contact, and the plane flying for seven hours after the transponders were switched off. You can't have a plane that has serious mechanical issues flying for seven hours, not without some kind of miracle which is WAY less likely than someone having taken the plane.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  53. Most certainly not a fire by Dan+East · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The fire theory is wrong, and it is not the simplest explanation in any shape or form. Not only was transponder switched off, but ACARS was too. Here's the thing - ACARS kept transmitting for 7 hours!! That system was fully functional - it had power, it was still transmitting to the stations. That is how we know the plane did not crash immediately. It was manually switched to a mode in which it no longer actively sent data.

    If there was a fire on board, then it magically: Took out all radios instantly, switched ACARS operating mode (plus ACARS can also be used to send messages, and the system was still working, yet it wasn't utilized to report an emergency either), killed the transponder, shut down the preprogrammed autopilot course, flew the plane for 7 hours with multiple heading changes and many "abnormal" altitude changes (flying above flight ceiling for the aircraft, flying lower than normal over Malaysia, etc), instantly killed every passenger (because no cell phones were switched on or even passively connected while flying lower than normal over Malaysia), allowed the pilot to manually fly the plane for hours (multiple altitude and course changes that were very strange) but without trying any other methods of communication (cell phones, ACARS messages, etc), and it all started IMMEDIATELY after Malaysia air traffic controllers turned over control of the aircraft as it was leaving their airspace. That is not the simplest explanation by any stretch of the imagination. The simplest explanation is: Someone with a technical knowledge of the aircraft decided to do whatever the hell they wanted with it at the very first opportunity when the plane was not longer being monitored by Malaysian flight controllers.

    Personally, I believe one of two things had to have happened immediately after the "event" began (when the plane was released by Malaysia air traffic control) - 1) the pilot managed to kill all the passengers extremely fast - for example by flying at a very high elevation (above the service ceiling even) and depressurizing the plane (at that elevation people lose consciousness in under 8 seconds), or 2) none of the passengers suspected anything was wrong until far out into the Indian ocean and out the range of all land-based cell towers.

    --
    Better known as 318230.
  54. Re:Link to Detailed Account: Anyone Know Air Route by JustOK · · Score: 1

    Yah, blame it on the Mexicans.

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    rewriting history since 2109
  55. Re:Sigh. by Aighearach · · Score: 1

    1.21 gigawatts! 1.21 gigawatts. Great Scott!

  56. Re:This article has NOTHING NEW, journo is an idio by mdsolar · · Score: 1

    Interestingly, you link says at the bottom: "All track. arcs and probability zones are symbolic only / not accurate." and since they can't possibly be consistent with the new information, apparently the new information is indeed news.

  57. Re:Not years, six months by BigPhatPhuck · · Score: 1

    Ya know, there is no need to change out the transponders or clone them. They are programmable, from the cockpit by design. The ATC call goes like this: United 173 squawk 4796. Pilot or co dials up 4796 or whatever code they are given. No swapping, no cloning.

  58. Re:Link to Detailed Account: Anyone Know Air Route by craighansen · · Score: 1

    Bzzt. http://i1.minus.com/iPcccu2MDL... does not show the factual location of the pings. Read the caption. It shows "Examples" of pings that could have given the tracks that the NTSB released. The actual location of the pings has not been publicly released, even though the ping data must have strongly influenced the NTSB tracks that have been published. This image from minus.com was drawn by Scott Henderson, who has explained that the pings shown in the diagram were drawn to illustrate the process that the NTSB presumably employed. This artifice got some strong negative reactions, such as http://willyloman.wordpress.co...

    Knowing the actual ping locations, particularly the 3:11 and 4:11 pings, could help clarify when the turn to the south took place and better pin down the complete track.

  59. Re:Link to Detailed Account: Anyone Know Air Route by craighansen · · Score: 1

    Tweets from Scott Henderson, who drew the diagram you cite, clarify what information we do and don't have: https://twitter.com/_AntiAlias...

  60. Here is where it is by goombah99 · · Score: 1

    This earlier slashdot post still seems like the best theory, nothing seems to contradict it
    http://slashdot.org/comments.p...

    --
    Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle.
  61. Ten theories ... by kbahey · · Score: 2

    Here is a list of the current ten theories on the disappearance of flight MH370.

  62. Re:Geography by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

    My theory is that if the plane went through Indonesia's airspace and Indonesia didn't detect it (and stated they would have if it did), then they are incompetent. Nobody else has presented any other theory as to how they could have missed it.

  63. Information is new to you by mdsolar · · Score: 1

    WSJ reported a while back that all the ping data were used to produce the arcs for the final ping. But it has not been reported before that the second ping was farther from the satellite than the first and the third farther than the second and so on to the seventh. That constrains the path early in the disappearance. Since Indonesia has confidence in its radar, this new information suggests that either their confidence is misplaced, the plane used evasion methods within the radar coverage that Indonesia may be able to discover, or the plane did not fly South.

  64. Bhutan has no air force by mdsolar · · Score: 1

    While much has been made of the border defenses to the North, the constraint provided by this new information allows overflying Bhutan (though not Nepal). Bhutan has a very small army and measures its performance in Gross National Happiness. It has no air force and has a border with Indian that requires no passport. It is flexible with its border with China. These borders may be less closely watched than some others. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G... The Myanmar/India border crossing that would need to be prior to this may not be closely guarded either.

    1. Re:Bhutan has no air force by mdsolar · · Score: 1

      An Indian Air Marshal points out that there are gaps in Indian radar coverage near Bhutan. http://news.oneindia.in/india/...

    2. Re:Bhutan has no air force by mdsolar · · Score: 1

      Mynamar also claims poor radar equipment. http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma...

    3. Re:Bhutan has no air force by mdsolar · · Score: 1

      China has some doubts about the possibility that its radar could be evaded. http://www.scmp.com/news/china...

  65. Re:Not years, six months by rpstrong · · Score: 1

    Close - but transponders only use digits from zero through seven.

  66. Re: Sigh. by Trax3001BBS · · Score: 1

    cite: PBS The Elegant Universe - Einsteins Dream

    I think you might want to watch the show again. BTW, this thread is about radio waves not gravity.

    One thing it wasn't is untrue; or in this case apparently garbage in garbage out.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v... (should take you 10:59 into the video)
    I watch this (one of three), and How the Universe Works seasons one and two (mostly season one)
    on my tablet to fall asleep at night; so pretty sure of what was said.

    But seeing as supersymmetry is dead, so is string theory. http://beta.slashdot.org/story... (beta sry)

  67. Re:Not years, six months by Muad'Dave · · Score: 1

    And since it was a non-US carrier, it was required to have an ADS-B mode-S capable transponder which has a burned-in hex address that cannot be easily changed, so some level of modding/diag manipulation would have to happen.

    --
    Tiller's Rule: Never use a word in written form that you've only heard and never read. You will end up looking foolish.