Slashdot Mirror


Climate Change Skeptic Group Must Pay Damages To UVA, Michael Mann

ideonexus (1257332) writes In January of 2014, the American Traditions Institute (ATI) sought climate scientist Micheal Mann's emails from his time at the University of Virginia, a request that was denied in the courts. Now the Virginia Supreme Court has upheld a lower court ruling that ATI must pay damages for filing a frivolous lawsuit. Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully.

360 of 497 comments (clear)

  1. Just an observation . . . by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    But it seems that the only way to get emails and not get sued is to, How shall we say, Hack in.

    1. Re:Just an observation . . . by BasilBrush · · Score: 1

      Although that can get you prison time.

    2. Re:Just an observation . . . by Rei · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Not if you're the Russian intelligence services, the prime suspect behind the hack. Anyone want to bet that this was part of the same initiative that brought us the more recent scandals of Russian state funding for European anti-fracking groups and American lobbying against LNG export approval?

      Whatever it takes to keep your main market open, dependent, and buying your main exports in vast quantities, I suppose.

      --
      Fox: "I think we should call it... your grave!" Cast: "Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!"
    3. Re:Just an observation . . . by TechyImmigrant · · Score: 2

      You don't think like a lawyer. The way to get emails is discovery.

      --
      I should use this sig to advertise my book ISBN-13 : 978-1501515132.
    4. Re:Just an observation . . . by GrumpySteen · · Score: 2

      Would you rather have all of your email history made freely available to anyone who asks for it? I wouldn't.

    5. Re:Just an observation . . . by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Well, that's the fun part. If somebody wants to see the incriminating email, you maneuver them into a situation where they're asking for all your emails. Ever. In printed format rather than software searchable.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
  2. "Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Ha. Haha. Hahahahaha. Yeah, good luck with that. As long as that pesky cabal of climatologists is out to get those poor little fellas in the coal and petrol industries, Climategate will continue rising from the grave.

    1. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Rei · · Score: 5, Funny

      "Plot idea: 97% of the world's scientists contrive an environmental crisis, but are exposed by a plucky band of billionaires & oil companies." -- Scott Westerfeld

      --
      Fox: "I think we should call it... your grave!" Cast: "Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!"
    2. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by SpockLogic · · Score: 1, Interesting
      The lobbyists for the coal and oil industries will spin this as a 'win'.

      "See, I told you the Kenyan, Muslim, socialist, green, anti-American is trying to bankrupt the righteous, god fearing, flag waving, truck driving, ordinary American trying to protect his traditional way of life. Don't believe those liberal, elitist, heathen scientists. Donate here and vote this way. Thank you. "

      This post should be read with the sarc filter on.

    3. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by i+kan+reed · · Score: 5, Insightful

      No, really. You can see the actual spin in this very thread. They are starting to form a basic premise of "freedom of speech" being killed by these pesky "libel" laws(and judges who are now also in on the conspiracy).

      The oil companies/heartland institute don't have to create spin anymore, because they've had the most important success possible: making denialism an important part of the identity of a lot of people.

      There is not a soul who was babbling about this "scandal" when it "broke" who will take this ruling as cause for reconsideration. And that's the big success.

    4. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by sumdumass · · Score: 1

      Actually, the spin is more likely to be something about if you got nothing tp hide, why did you refuse to release yhe communication and something about the courts sending a message to people who ask questions that this subject is off limits or you will pay.

    5. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Jason+Levine · · Score: 5, Funny

      "Why this isn't climate change at all! It's *removes mask from monster* Michael Mann and 97% of the world's scientists!"

      "We would have gotten away with it too if it weren't for you meddling billionaires!"

      (Oops. Should have added a spoiler alert.)

      --
      My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
    6. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Jason+Levine · · Score: 1

      The oil companies/heartland institute don't have to create spin anymore, because they've had the most important success possible: making denialism an important part of the identity of a lot of people.

      In other words, the spin has become self-sustaining. It would be ironic if we could harass this self-sustaining spin to generate enough energy to stop using fossil fuels and reverse climate change.

      --
      My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
    7. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by sideslash · · Score: 1, Insightful

      OK, that was funny. But the 97% number is nonsense, just for the record. Skepticism about AGW catastrophism is rampant among the world's scientists at large (physicists, biologists, etc.), and many climate scientists have been cautiously coming out of the closet and poking sticks at the shaky foundations as well.

      I'm a little bit surprised that Slashdot doesn't have more AGW catastrophism skeptics, to be honest. Ordinary people hear "supercomputer driven model simulation" and they think "oooh, it must be really accurate and able to predict the future". Anybody who understands statistics and the banal realities of computation knows the good old GIGO principle. Not to mention the reality that nobody has ever successfully predicted long term climate changes, so throwing a supercomputer at an impossible problem doesn't magically add credibility. *sigh* (goes back to reading Professor Judith Curry's blog)

    8. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by afeeney · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The oil companies/heartland institute don't have to create spin anymore, because they've had the most important success possible: making denialism an important part of the identity of a lot of people.

      In some ways, it's very cult-like in the way that it forms identity. Denialism gives you victim/threatened status (those evildoers are attacking our beliefs, we need to be warriors), enough victories to think of oneself as a winner but maintain the communal aspects of thinking oneself under threat, charismatic leaders, the companionship of shared beliefs, a sense of superiority to those who disbelieve, and, in the most cult-like aspect, the assurance of being above mere facts, of living in a world where your personal beliefs trump mere objective facts.

    9. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      and many climate scientists have been cautiously coming out of the closet and poking sticks at the shaky foundations as well

      And many of them are finding out the hard way that challenging religious dogma often gets you burned at the stake.

      Posting AC because even mild skepticism of AGW will get you burned as a heretic on /. too.

    10. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by i+kan+reed · · Score: 2

      A fun thing about reversing climate change, pointed out by a climatologist in an article I recently read.

      If we cut new human emissions to zero, and found a way to stop the methane emissions from thawing permafrost and other positive feedback loops, historical evidence indicates that it might take a century or so for the planet's natural CO2 regulation methods to actually return to postindustrial levels.

      I mean, that'd be fine, because our situation today isn't broadly disastrous like another 4-5 degrees C would be. But there's good reason to be concerned about the actual target stabilization temperatures of the plans we're not even implementing yet.

    11. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Jason+Levine · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Don't forget a sense of purpose. You are fighting this extremely large group of powerful individuals who are conspiring to make the public believe a lie. (Be it AGW, the moon landing, vaccinations preventing disease, alternative medicine, Obama not being a secret Muslim lizard robot intent on world domination, etc.) Only you and your small band know the truth and must fight against overwhelming odds to battle the lie. I'm sure many conspiracy theorists feel like they are living in a movie and cast themselves as the dashing hero determined to save the day.

      --
      My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
    12. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by rgbscan · · Score: 4, Informative

      The 97% number is not nonsense, as you claim, it comes from this widely cited peer-reviewed study. http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/article

      After reviewing over 11,000 scientific papers on climate change, of the papers that took a position on climate change (either for or against), 97% concluded it was indeed happening and induced by man.

    13. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by I'm+New+Around+Here · · Score: 1

      Actually, I think it was 97% of the reports that someone wanted to categorize however they wished to.

      --
      If you think I voted for Trump because of this post, you're wrong. I voted for Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party. Again.
    14. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by roccomaglio · · Score: 4, Informative

      The statistic is not 97% of Scientists then is it. It is 97% of papers or 97% of scientist that published on global warming. That is not what the statistic claims to be.

    15. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You know things like "ostracize those who speak to outsiders", "venerate central personality who makes all decisions", or "target and harass ex-members".

      Sounds a lot like the AGW crowd.

    16. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by UnknowingFool · · Score: 5, Insightful

      OK, that was funny. But the 97% number is nonsense, just for the record. Skepticism about AGW catastrophism is rampant among the world's scientists at large (physicists, biologists, etc.), and many climate scientists have been cautiously coming out of the closet and poking sticks at the shaky foundations as well.

      [Citation Needed]
      This is the original press release about the 97%. By the way, the correct citation is "In analyzing responses by sub-groups, Doran found that climatologists who are active in research showed the strongest consensus on the causes of global warming, with 97 percent agreeing humans play a role. "

      Basically the survey found that the experts in the field have 97% consensus. For overall numbers of scientists:

      Two questions were key: have mean global temperatures risen compared to pre-1800s levels, and has human activity been a significant factor in changing mean global temperatures.
      About 90 percent of the scientists agreed with the first question and 82 percent the second.

      Ordinary people hear "supercomputer driven model simulation" and they think "oooh, it must be really accurate and able to predict the future".

      No I think computer models are really the only thing we have as we don't have a spare planet to experiment upon and god-like powers. But with all models, I don't assume that they are all 100% accurate. But I think they can be constructed to be close enough to determine a reasonable outcome.

      Anybody who understands statistics and the banal realities of computation knows the good old GIGO principle. Not to mention the reality that nobody has ever successfully predicted long term climate changes, so throwing a supercomputer at an impossible problem doesn't magically add credibility. *sigh*

      No one has ever said that these models are 100% for all future predictions. Like most of science, theories (and models) that best fit observable data are used. And like most of science these are tested. I don't know if this is some sort of delusion or lack of understanding of how science works. Just because a scientist proposes something or releases a paper, it is not automatically accepted without challenge. Data is challenged. Conclusions are challenged.

      All science is challenged. Consensus is reached after enough data and evidence is presented that favors the conclusions. Einstein's General Theory of Relativity wasn't accepted because Einstein proposed it. It took a solar eclipse before many physicists began to accept that it might be the best theory. Now by today's standards, the results of solar eclipse experiment would not have been enough.

      --
      Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
    17. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by rgbscan · · Score: 5, Informative

      Have you actually read the paper and the rebuttal in the blog you posted? The scientific paper specifically says says they removed the papers that did not take a position on AGW. Then the blog post comes along and says OMG! They threw out some papers and sensationalizes the very thing the scientific paper was up front about. How can the research paper count something in the for or against column (the very point of it's study) if no position is taken? It's a stupid sensationalist strawman.

      Scientific Paper: We removed from our study the papers that took no position for or against AGW. Here are the results of the papers with a position. This paper is not about how severe the conditions are, just tabulating the percentage of papers that conclude climate change is man made, and those that are not. That is the purpose of this research. Here is our data, linked to for your review. You can even download the PDF's and spreadsheets and review it in the linked data section.

      Your lame blog rebuttal: A sensationalized OMG! The scientific paper EXCLUDED papers that didn't take a position. How can their data possibly be credible now???? And even worse, they won't even say if its dangerous or not!!! This paper is a crock! Your lame blog then cites a letter from a scientist who asked for the data (even though it is all linked to and available on the IOP website) and the stufy authors didn't get back to them. The blog then cites this as daming proof that the study must be a joke. Because no one hand fed this guy data he could have downloaded off the site.

      You see why people can't take you seriously? Get yourself some peer reviewed data and we'll talk.

    18. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by afeeney · · Score: 1

      You know things like "ostracize those who speak to outsiders", "venerate central personality who makes all decisions", or "target and harass ex-members".

      In the political sphere, at least, I'd say that does happen. Political compromise gets a lot of scorn poured on it, there are certain political figures/organizations who get venerated and call most of the shots, and while there's very little side-switching in national and state politics, so not quite the equivalence to becoming an ex-member, those who do stray from doctrine get targeted, most definitely.

    19. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Bongo · · Score: 2

      I think it was Sam Harris who said that something strange happens when an issue becomes a moral issue. Reason and questioning are no longer allowed. Another weird thing is that people are easily affected to become irrational, when it is being done by the oil lobby, but environmentalists are immune to anything which might corrupt their judgement in a groupthink way. Enviros deconstruct other's hidden motives and agendas, but they themselves are immune. Weird no? To just happen to be in the right? (Real post-modern deconstruction as someone put it, is when you can deconstruct your own cultural groupthink biases before you try to deconstruct someone else's. Most people just use it as a way to attack others, whilst never questioning their own views.)

      Personally I am all for a truly global world free of inequality, of the unfairness of being born accidentally in a poor area, and think a global system that integrates development and environment and clean technology with high education and intelligence and happiness and creativity and purposeful existence for all is where humanity and the planet needs to keep striving for. All too often though the mass movements around this sort of thing fall back to old methods, like groupthink and moralistic judgements, forsaking critical discernment. Then when they don't get good results, they blame the big bad oil lobby.

    20. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by LordLimecat · · Score: 2, Insightful

      That 97% number IS bull, and its right there in the link you provided, under abstract:

      We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.
      So of the abstracts which discuss global warming, 97% support AGW. Except, you would not call that an unbiased sample, nor would that be an acceptable selection criteria in any other poll, ever.

      I generally nope out of any AGW conversation because theyre cesspools of illogic, ad hominems, and general idiocy, but come on. That 97% claim is like saying "97%*** of CoD players hate the game (***- 97% of players posting negative posts on the message boards)".

    21. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Megol · · Score: 2

      OK, that was funny. But the 97% number is nonsense, just for the record. Skepticism about AGW catastrophism is rampant among the world's scientists at large (physicists, biologists, etc.), and many climate scientists have been cautiously coming out of the closet and poking sticks at the shaky foundations as well.
       

      I think you are right, we should let biologists design nuclear reactors as they obviously have an opinion about them. Just as we should employ eugenics as a number of Aryan physicists think we should!

      I'm a little bit surprised that Slashdot doesn't have more AGW catastrophism skeptics, to be honest. Ordinary people hear "supercomputer driven model simulation" and they think "oooh, it must be really accurate and able to predict the future". Anybody who understands statistics and the banal realities of computation knows the good old GIGO principle. Not to mention the reality that nobody has ever successfully predicted long term climate changes, so throwing a supercomputer at an impossible problem doesn't magically add credibility. *sigh* (goes back to reading Professor Judith Curry's blog)

      What? The fact we understand that we can't understand everything of every topic and that experts are likely to know their area better than us... isn't that a good thing? And your understanding of the area seems very suspect - it isn't only about "supercomputer driven model". Far from it.

    22. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by dryeo · · Score: 1

      The numbers I've usually heard have been about an order of magnitude higher. There's not many ways that CO2 gets sequestered. Plants, most of which rot and re-release their CO2 with some getting buried in swamps and such. We've also drained a lot of swamp land slowing down this method. And through rainfall, which increases as temps go up, causing erosion and eventually sequestering the CO2 as calcium carbonate. Also slow.
      Perhaps there are others I'm not aware of.

      --
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
    23. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Bongo · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Whoever asked for 100%? The errors on the models are so far rather huge.

      As for testing, yes, science is tested and challenged. But here's the rub: that process takes time. Sometimes a lot of time. Like 50 years.

      Both the scenarios and the time to correct are running into the decades, which is much longer than the window inside which we're supposed to act to avert catastrophe. In other words, both the prediction and the correction haven't come about yet, so anything we do now is based on faith and best guesses.

      You can't magic away the risk with a supercomputer and lots of clever people.

      Ideally science would be an ever gradual fine grained improvement, but as soon as you deal with complex systems, like human bodies, or diet, or climate, there is just no magic answer. Like you say, we don't have ten planets to run as experiments. As you say, it is not the scientific method as famous for testing things to death repeatedly that is being used. It is guesswork. Educated guesswork carries risks and unintended consequences.

    24. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by i+kan+reed · · Score: 3, Informative

      Plants are not the primary living consumers of CO2 on this planet. That'd be ocean-borne algae.

    25. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Yeah...you are definitely a cultist.

    26. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by pr0fessor · · Score: 1

      You would be correct, throwing statistical data and a computer driven model simulations at me only raises an eyebrow. I have neither the time or desire to dive into it to verify the interpretation for myself, and it is of little consequence. Cheaper, cleaner, more efficient, renewable energy should be a goal regardless of global warming, and sooner is better than later.

    27. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Stormwatch · · Score: 1

      He didn't say Nye is not a scientist, but that climatology is not Nye's field (it is mechanical engineering, actually).

    28. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by sideslash · · Score: 1

      Cheaper, cleaner, more efficient, renewable energy should be a goal regardless of global warming, and sooner is better than later.

      I agree that this is highly desirable, although the execution of the goal is the tricky part. Ethanol is a great example of why government mandating of an allegedly cleaner alternative doesn't necessarily improve the situation.

    29. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Carewolf · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Follow the money. How many grants are given to the study of ..... non catastrophic AGW? If you are a climatologist and want funding, you are pro-AGW, and you don't hide it, even if you are skeptical, as it is the only way to keep your funding.

      You have mixed something up. There are huge grants for disproving or challenging anything related to AGW funded by the powers that oppose (everybody with money). Pro-AGW science only receive money from everybody without money, which while a lot, doesn't really add up to anything.

    30. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by dryeo · · Score: 1

      Still the same point, how much algae gets actually taken out of the eco-system? Anyways it really doesn't look like we're going to do much to stop CO2 release in the short term.

      --
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
    31. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by hairykrishna · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Define 'scepticism about AGW catastrophism'. I'm a professional physicist and I would suggest, based on experience talking to my colleagues, that there is very little scepticism amongst physicists that humans are responsible for observed temperature rises and are going to be responsible for a whole lot more. It is certainly not 'rampant'. Consequences of said warming for the human race is a different topic.

      --
      "Physics is to math as sex is to masturbation." -R. Feynman
    32. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1

      No, we're definitely looking at 2-3 degrees C at least. Which is going to suck in a bunch of ways.

    33. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Sockatume · · Score: 1

      ....or perhaps your model of the world where all systems perfectly equilibrate in response to perturbations is not accurate and has misled you.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    34. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by pr0fessor · · Score: 1

      Sadly it's competition that drives innovation, not government mandate. I'm not really sure how a new player would compete with the established infrastructure.

    35. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I don't think I understand... are you complaining that statistics have not been compiled from papers that take no position for or against? Those papers do not address the question why would they be included in any calculation? Should we also include papers submitted from any field -- they are just as relevant. So there were 360 million research papers created last year 99.99999% say AGW is an unknown quantity. Of what use is that information?

      4 out of 5 Dentists don't take a position on AGW.... ? Big deal, 5 out 5 dentists have no standing to comment at all.

      Of those who are willing to publish peer-reviewed research in the field and are willing to take a position on the issue, 97% say the AGW is happening and we contribute to it.... that is relevant no matter how you slice it.
      Jeez.

    36. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by phlinn · · Score: 2

      If a climatologist and a mathematician disagree on the math used in a climate paper, who is the expert?

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    37. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by phantomfive · · Score: 2

      Basically the survey found that the experts in the field have 97% consensus

      Problem is that skeptical scientists such as Richard Lindzen agree with that 'consensus', because the question is too narrow. Ask something more interesting like, "should we replace all our coal power with renewables because to prevent AGW?" or "is AGW going to be catastrophic?" and you will find that there is no consensus.

      But I think they can be constructed to be close enough to determine a reasonable outcome.

      You didn't clarify what you mean by 'reasonable outcome,' but this paper in Nature demonstrates that the climate models have serious errors.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    38. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Sockatume · · Score: 1

      "97% of scientists qualified to comment on the issue" is even worse for the anti-warming movement.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    39. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Sockatume · · Score: 2

      "97% of scientists who actually work in this area" seems like the statistic you want to worry about, doesn't it?

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    40. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 2

      The 97% is based on scientific polling of actual climate scientists. It is fair to say that about 19 out of 20 people actually doing research and publishing papers in the field of climatology have concluded that the buildup of greenhouse gas caused by human activity is becoming the driving force behind global warming.

      On the other hand, your claim is based on anecdotes about "physicists" and "biologists" who very well may not even do active research in climatology being "skeptical". But the fact is, denialism is not skepticism and genuine climate skeptics are few and far between. One would suppose that some of the 5% minority of climate scientists are genuine skeptics while the rest are paid by industry to pretend to be.

      Also, the idea that climate scientists rely on computer models to reach their conclusions is simply untrue. The conclusion would be valid even based on back of the hand calculations that any undergraduate scientist could do. There are only three major factors that affect the total retained heat of the planet:

      1) Solar radiance.
      2) Albedo
      3) The Greenhouse Effect

      You don't need a supercomputer to calculate the change in solar irradiance in the past 100 years and how much heat it has added or removed from the planet. Overall, it is a pretty null force.

      And, you don't need a supercomputer to calculate how much extra heat the small reduction in the albedo has retained due to us cleaning up our atmosphere.

      And finally, you don't need a supercomputer to calculate the large increase in heat energy added to the atmosphere by the increasing greenhouse effect.

      What you do need a supercomputer for is to predict how all this extra heat is going to effect the climate on a year-to-year basis. Which parts of the earth are going to get wetter, how much energy will be siphoned off by the oceans, how much less rain will Phoenix get.

      But none of these supercomputer models are necessary to figuring out what the primary cause of the temperature increase is, and that is the buildup of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere.

    41. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by nickittynickname · · Score: 1

      I see people say this all the time. Some mysterious group is willing to pay for skeptic research. I've never seen any evidence of this. Can you post a link to something substantial.

    42. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by sideslash · · Score: 1

      Anybody who denies AGW catastrophism is termed a "denier" and the 97% number is trotted out to refute them. So it's fair to point out that the number 97% is "nonsense" when used for that purpose. Even if the paper wasn't shoddy in its methods, its conclusion would be useless for the AGW alarmism debate, because pretty much everybody believes that climate changes and that humans "play a role".

    43. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by WindBourne · · Score: 1

      Skepticism about AGW catastrophism is rampant among the world's scientists at large (physicists, biologists, etc.), and many climate scientists have been cautiously coming out of the closet and poking sticks at the shaky foundations as well.

      Cool. Please show us links to back this up.
      OTOH, I can show you links that claim otherwise.
      Heck, here is Richard Muller who lead the charge against AGW, who upon funding from the kock brothers, changed position.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    44. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by rgbscan · · Score: 4, Informative

      I didn't really mean to yell at you. I was characterizing the fervor of the blog you linked.

      If you feel it was sloppy, that 's the great thing about peer reviewed science. You are welcome to re-do it yourself. This was a simple study, with an easy to understand methodology, so I'm not sure what you find "sloppy". Please do elaborate.

      Repeat the experiment yourself.....

      Step 1) Researchers made a list of scientific papers from peer reviewed journals that search keywords found to match something about climate change. 11,000-12,000 of them. Here is the raw data (the one that your linked blog said the Norwegian scientist just couldn't somehow get his hands on, no matter how hard he tried or emailed, that your blog implied was a coverup). http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/media/erl460291datafile.txt

      Step 2) Review and determine if the paper takes a stand on global warming. Exclude the papers that do not. (Since the whole point of this experiment is to determine that percentage of papers for or against AGW)

      Step 3) Determine the percentages of the remaining papers. Are they for or against? Publish result.

      All this other stuff you and the blog bring up... is it dangerous? how much is man made? etc, etc is outside the scope of the study. The point of *this* one particular study is to find out what percentage of published, peer reviewed papers, attribute AGW to man made causes. Coming up with the "consensus" of scientists. If you have other questions, look to other research, but don't knock this paper or setup straw man arguments based on something it's not. That's just shady.

    45. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by WindBourne · · Score: 4, Informative
      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    46. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by neonKow · · Score: 1

      That's a stupid way to look at things. Nobody flew to the moon either before we got there, but throwing math at things (even in the form of supercomputers) when we have a pretty good idea of how they work is a perfectly valid way of predicting things.

      Anyway, there's plenty of indicators of climate change happening on a scale that will negatively affect what natural resources human beings can exploit. No, climate change won't wipe us off the face of the earth, but if the acidity of the ocean continues to rise and kills off large populations of fish, that's obviously going to bad economically for fishing industries all over the world.

    47. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by neonKow · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Not a heretic. Burned as someone willfully ignoring the science to cling to their beliefs. This is slashdot, after all, and the way AGW skeptics present arguments often stinks of conspiracy theories.

    48. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by neonKow · · Score: 1

      Certain comments they make DO deserve to be downvoted to hell. If a round-earth skeptic made a comment claiming the world MIGHT be flat, they would likewise be downvoted to hell.

      The fact is that there will always be some people left clinging to old beliefs that have to be dragged kicking and screaming into the modern age by the rest of society that has passed them decades ago, whether it's that AGW is happening, legal gay marriage is going to happen, equal rights under the constitution for everyone regardless or race or gender is happening, eugenics is bullshit, or that you can't use leaches to cure a cold.

      To these people, they will always be unconscious of the fact that they think beliefs are the same as truths, and no new truths are allowed to appear. These are also the people who impede the progress of medicine, biology, social rights, and other sciences because when the consensus goes against them, instead of reexamining their beliefs critically, they feel like they're being attacked and respond by holding on even more tightly to their beliefs.

      Here is a recent widely circulated article about why such skeptics continue to exist:
      http://www.newyorker.com/onlin...

    49. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by frank_adrian314159 · · Score: 1

      The statistic is not 97% of Scientists then is it.

      Yeah, you're right. It's 97% of scientists who actually know what they're talking about instead of a population that includes a bunch of kibitzing amateurs who don't actually understand what they're going on about. But I guess that about 97% of the readers here think you're an idiot because you believe that makes some difference with respect to the actual sciencey stuff. Thanks for defending the planet wreckers - it helps to make the place so much more wonderful!

      --
      That is all.
    50. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by LordLimecat · · Score: 2

      My complaint is that the 97% draws an invalid link between abstracts written and opinion. 99.999% of scientists have an opinion on AGW; that doesnt mean they have written a paper on that. The way you determine that is to do a random sample poll, not to use a selection-biased sample and draw faulty conclusions on it.

    51. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

      throwing a supercomputer at an impossible problem doesn't magically add credibility

      Of course it does. The answer is 42.

    52. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by cheesybagel · · Score: 2

      97% of Catholic Priests believe in God. News at 11.

    53. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by gtall · · Score: 1

      Errrmmm....like the EPA and Los Angles smog? Or say, the EPA and Love Canal? Please explain how the government mandating cleaner emissions from autos hasn't made a big difference.

    54. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by tbannist · · Score: 1

      Anybody who denies AGW catastrophism is termed a "denier" and the 97% number is trotted out to refute them.

      No, generally speaking anyone who denies that global warming is occurring is labelled a "denier", because the evidence is conclusive that it's happening. The people who deny that catastrohpic climate change could occur because of global warming ir more properly lablled as a "luke-warmer", because they generally don't believe it will get "that hot".

      So it's fair to point out that the number 97% is "nonsense" when used for that purpose.

      No one (but you) is using it for that purpose.

      Even if the paper wasn't shoddy in its methods, its conclusion would be useless for the AGW alarmism debate, because pretty much everybody believes that climate changes and that humans "play a role".

      Surprisingly, close to half of Americans don't actually believe that, they think that there's no consensus on whether global warming is occurring. Probably because their primary news sources are under the control of Rupert Murdoch who personally stands to lose money from his portfolio if it's widely acknowledged that global warming is occurring and that human emissions are a key factor. Rupert, in case you didn't know, has a lot of money invested in coal companies which would bear the brunt of the effects of regulation, carbon taxes, or carbon trading markets.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    55. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 1

      "Carbon sensitivity" has no bearing on the underlying cause of the warming. It is completely irrelevant to the overarching question of what are the driving forces behind climate change. There are only a very small number of major forces that have a long-term net effect of adding or removing energy from Earth, as I already pointed out. Those are the only things that could ultimately be driving the long-term and rapid worldwide global warming trend.

      Now, if you want to predict exactly how much global temperatures will increase in the next 100 years or the next ten years, then yes, you need very complex models. If you want to understand what forces are behind those trends, you do not need complex models at all. We know exactly how much extra heat a metric ton of CO2 traps. We know exactly how much heat a 1% increase in our albedo removes. We know exactly how much heat a change in 1 w/m^2 of flux from the sun adds or removes.

    56. Re: "Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by caveqat101 · · Score: 2

      Sorry you are so limited in scope. What this reenforced is secrecy in government. Mann was working on a government grant, with the permissions of his employer, a state college, also a government entity. He produced a product that has been called flawed. The statistics have been reworked, flawed. People, including other scientists, are asking the what and where of his research, he won"t release that research, or the emails related to the research where his basic tenant started to deviate. Or the databases used, or program that says your CO2 is the problem. But your shipping our jobs to 3rd world countries is now " solving" the problem. He he he!.

    57. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by tbannist · · Score: 1

      Why can I simply multiply the temperature of the earth at 1 atm pressure by 1.176 to get the temp on venus at the same pressure?

      Using the numbers from Venus Atmosphere Temperature and Pressure Profile:
      Average Earth temperature: 14 degrees x 1.176 = 16 degrees Celcius
      Average Venus temperature at 1 atmosphere (49.5 km above the surface): 66 degrees Celcius

      It appears that you shouldn't be able to do so, and that's ignoring the question of whether the surface temperature on Earth should even be directly comparable to the temperature 49.5 km above the surface of Venus.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    58. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by IIJamesII · · Score: 2

      Believer here. No evidence required. As the "pro-science" side, we are free to say whatever we like. Nobody will scrutinize us because we all hold the same beliefs. Nobody wants to hurt a member of their own team. 97% of the skeptics here are paid by the Koch brothers.

    59. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Art+Challenor · · Score: 1

      Given that there's remarkably little proof that this is not caused by humans, wouldn't it be better to follow the path that would avoid a catastrophe in the event that the models are close and it is human caused.

      I'd rather look around in the future and curse the scientist for being wrong than acknowledge that they were right, but that it's now too late to do anything.

      There's a path forward that does not carry huge economic damage, indeed may help the economy. The problem is that this is at the expense of the oil and coal companies. Organizations not noted for doing the right thing but for protecting their limited interests with large campaign contributions and educational trips for politicians (not to be confused with bribes).

    60. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 1

      Carbon sensitivity makes absolutely no difference to the overall picture of climate change, because CO2 keeps building up in the atmosphere and the amount of heat added by the greenhouse effect keeps increasing.

      CO2 sensitivity may determine how fast certain parts of the earth, such as the oceans and lower atmosphere warm up, but it has no bearing on the question of:

      1) What has become the primary driver of global warming?

      2) Will the temperature of the atmosphere keep increasing?

      Now, if you want to ask the questions: will the California coast be drier or wetter in 2100? Is the ground temperature more likely to increase by an average 2K or 5K by 2100? Then, you need the sophisticated models.

      However, you do not need a sophisticated model to answer the questions: What source of radiative forcing is primarily responsible for adding the extra heat to our atmosphere that is driving global warming? Baring some unforeseen catastrophe, will the Earth continue warming at rates unprecedented in natural history (with the exception of major worldwide natural disasters) if we continue causing a massive buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere?

      And that is why climate change denial is so ridiculous, because while climate science on a microscopic level is very nuanced, difficult to understand, and scientifically controversial, on a macroscopic level, the big questions are easy to understand (at least for someone with a basic science education) and not scientifically controversial (although the deniers try to convince the public otherwise).

      We know the earth is warming. We know that the buildup of greenhouse gasses caused by human industry have become the primary driver of the long-term trend towards global warming. We know that if we keep building up these gases in the atmosphere, the earth will keep warming (baring some unforeseen natural or man-made worldwide disaster). We know the effects will be devastating on human civilization, which has been built up over 5,000 years reliant upon a relatively stable climate. We know that reducing the buildup of greenhouse gasses will mitigate global warming.

    61. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1

      Well, I mean, of course they haven't succeeded. We live in a democracy, so people are power, and they've won a big enough chunk of people to hold sway for a while.

      But we also live in a representative republic. And the elitism designed into the system sort of works. A little. Policy makers are sometimes moderated by practicality.

      It's just enough that there's a potential avenue of progress.

    62. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by TheNastyInThePasty · · Score: 1

      I thought GP was making a subtle satirical point until I reached the end

      --
      The best thing about UDP jokes is I don't care if you get them or not
    63. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Bing+Tsher+E · · Score: 1

      The way pro-AGW fanatics present arguments often stinks of conspiracy theories. (Those evile brothers, Big Oil, etc.)

      Let's face it. A good percentage of slashbots are non-scientific ranting nutters. It's fun to approach all issues in a big adventurous way when you'e young and being all idealistic.

    64. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      The Cook papers criteria: "Endorsement levels 1-3 each endorse anthropogenic factors as causing 50+% of recent warming."

      The following statements from abstracts were taken to mean that the papers authors agreed with the criterea, that anthropogenic factors as causing 50+% of warming:

      • This paper reviews some of the adverse effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. because the atmospheric effects of global warming are less understood, public health problems that could be intensified by climate change are assessed qualitatively.
      • There have been numerous proposals for immediate cutbacks in CO2 emissions. Proponents argue that sizable reductions are necessary as a hedge against unacceptably rapid changes in climate. This paper provides a decision tree analysis of the problem.
      • As environmental issues, and the issue of global warming in particular, rise to the top of the international agenda, developing nations are faced with a major question: how to confront these environmental problems and simultaneously address a number of more pressing developmental imperatives?
      • Emission of CH4, a gas implicated in global warming, can also be substantial in flooded rice.
      • Desirable features include ethanol’s fuel properties as well as benefits with respect to urban air quality, global climate change, balance of trade, and energy security.
      • Examines the possibility of global climate change due to the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The problem can be ameliorated by reducing fossil fuel consumption through conservation and expanded use of nuclear and solar power.
      • The information presented should help prepare electric utilities to address future public concerns and the related regulatory pressures regarding the utility’s role in carbon-dioxide proliferation and global warming
      • Previous studies suggest that the expected global warming from the greenhouse effect could raise sea level 50 to 200 cm (2 to 7 ft) in the next century. This article presents the first nationwide assessment of the primary impacts of such a rise on the United States
      • The paper presents a methodology for comparing the cost-effectiveness of different technical options for the abatement of greenhouse gas emissions
      • While considerable global warming uncertainties remain, limiting the emission of the greenhouse gas, CO2 at minimum cost is a growing social concern.
      • An analysis of data pertaining to the period 1861–1986 reveals that (1) a 1 C rise in the mean annual air temperature of the British Isles has historically been associated with a 35% drop in the percentage of days that the United Kingdom has experienced cyclonic flow, and (2) a 2 C increase in the mean annual air temperature over the sea to the north has typically been matched by a 60% drop in the percentage of days that the isles have experienced cyclonic flow originating from that source region. These findings raise significant questions about the oft-reported claim that CO2-induced global warming will lead to an increase in world storminess.

      Maybe I'm missing something, but this seems like a bogus study. If something of that... ahem... quality came out from a oil funded think tank you guys would be all over it. It seems that anything that agrees with global warming is uncritically accepted by the same people who see themselves as "pro-science".

    65. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by ultranova · · Score: 1

      Problem is that skeptical scientists such as Richard Lindzen agree with that 'consensus', because the question is too narrow. Ask something more interesting like, "should we replace all our coal power with renewables because to prevent AGW?" or "is AGW going to be catastrophic?" and you will find that there is no consensus.

      And should such consensus emerge, you can always rephrase the question again. Or maybe you'll claim the answer should be ignored since climatologists are not, after all, engineers. Perhaps you'll come up with something more creative. Just as long as it lets you dismiss science that's saying things you don't want to hear while pretending to be scientific.

      Climate change scepticism certainly serves as a wonderful demonstration about human capacity for self-deception.

      --

      Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

    66. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      That 97% number is a total myth. It's based on two studies so obviously bogus that I am surprised anyone would continue to even mention them. You should be embarrassed by these papers and the attention they received.

      The fact remains: climate models predicted increased surface temperatures directly tied to increased CO2. But it has not warmed in the last 17 years. The climate scare is over. Please move on. Your sides stubborn refusal to acknowledge anything remotely critical, no matter how true, will continue to eat away at your credibility.

      Lets all focus on innovative nuclear projects that would benefit everybody. The fact remains, fossil fuels are dirty, finite and expensive. (Why aren't people concerned about CO2 pushing hard for this?)

    67. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      I should add that, sadly, this episode will hurt science in general. Maybe that's a good thing. Scientists are just people. It's wrong to put them on a pedestal.

    68. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by dywolf · · Score: 1

      No. They havent.

      And saying "scientists" question it is an illegitimate statement. No one cares what a neurobiologist thinks of climate, and no one cares what a climatoligy thinks of nuerobiology. A non-expert is still a non-expert, even if he happens to be a scientist in some other field.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    69. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by neonKow · · Score: 1

      Not really. A single powerful entity using (abusing?) power isn't a conspiracy; it's basically all of human history.

      A conspiracy would involve multiple people collaborating that would not do so under normal circumstances. Because that would involve too many coincidences to be likely, conspiracy theories tend to be dismissed. There really isn't any good reason for scientists all over the world to form a conspiracy in order to get everyone to switch from coal to solar power.

    70. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by sideslash · · Score: 1

      And saying "scientists" question it is an illegitimate statement. No one cares what a neurobiologist thinks of climate, and no one cares what a climatoligy thinks of nuerobiology. A non-expert is still a non-expert, even if he happens to be a scientist in some other field.

      I agree with you on one level, and disagree on another. It is perfectly fine for a generic "scientist" to audit and evaluate scientific methods of another scientist. You don't have to be a biologist to criticize faulty statistics in one of our sadly abundant faulty medical studies. And similarly, if climate scientists claim more than is warranted by the data, you don't have to be a climate scientist to raise your hand and say "there's a problem with your handling of this data". Math is math, and statistics is statistics, and the kinds of errors people can make are really the same in a fundamental way across disciplines.

    71. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Rakarra · · Score: 1

      Or +5. Same thing.

    72. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by sideslash · · Score: 1

      With computers, an output derived from garbage input is rarely useful. But perhaps the computation will help heat the server room. :p

    73. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      *waves hands* "slippery slope"... and if you slide down (any supposedly slippery slope) you end up at *LIST OF HORRIBLES*. I'll agree at least there is something sloppy here. ;)

      The result is still un-useful nonsense.

    74. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      "97% of scientists who actually work in this area" seems like the statistic you want to worry about, doesn't it?

      I'm going to go out on a limb and say that 97% of hard scientists in other fields will also defer to the specialists in the field being discussed.

    75. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      Nobody cares about their opinions. In many cases, even they themselves don't value their own "opinions" on science. It is a basic misunderstanding of scientific thought that when they talk about consensus they're talking about consensus of personal opinion. No, they're talking about consensus about what is well-proven and probably correct, or close.

    76. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      You'd need a specific scenario that contains an actual situation of such a conflict, which would then have to be analyzed in its own context.

      There is not going to be a rule-of-thumb for deciding scientific disputes in advance. It will take independent parties to attempt to reproduce the work using the different formulas and analyzing the results. And then the dispute can be peer reviewed.

      Your attempt to solve disputes in advance without knowing the details suggests you have dubious motives, or a lack of exposure to basic science.

    77. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by mpe · · Score: 1

      OK, that was funny. But the 97% number is nonsense, just for the record.

      Claiming consensus (or near consensus) isn't "science" anyway. It's "politics" or possibly "religion".

      Skepticism about AGW catastrophism is rampant among the world's scientists at large (physicists, biologists, etc.)

      Since they are not "climate scientists" their opinion dosn't count here. Even if their skepticism were to come from either their own specialty (which would also include chemists, geologists, paleontologists, archeologists, historians, statisticians, computer scientists, etc.) or their understanding of "scientific method.

      and many climate scientists have been cautiously coming out of the closet and poking sticks at the shaky foundations as well.

      But would any "true climate scientist" not believe in CAGW? Or is there a "No True Scotsman" fallacy at work here?

      I'm a little bit surprised that Slashdot doesn't have more AGW catastrophism skeptics, to be honest. Ordinary people hear "supercomputer driven model simulation" and they think "oooh, it must be really accurate and able to predict the future". Anybody who understands statistics and the banal realities of computation knows the good old GIGO principle.

      That would still be a case of "not a climate scientist". The concept of "nobody out side of a group can critique a member's actions, but anyone who might do so wouldn't be allowed to be a member in the first place" isn't that uncommon.

      Not to mention the reality that nobody has ever successfully predicted long term climate changes

      It's even worst than that. Even models which can "hindcast" have been incapable of forcasting. But few, if any, have been "too cool".

    78. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Rakarra · · Score: 1

      Of those who are willing to publish peer-reviewed research in the field and are willing to take a position on the issue

      That second clause is extremely important. The "97% of climate scientists" figure is often used by people claiming that climate scientists are all in agreement. They may be, but "I'm not sure" and "more research is needed before we can draw a conclusion" is an answer that shouldn't be discarded. It's just as valid as "humans are the primary driver behind AGW," and an I'm Not Sure or even "I don't want to say" should be counted and lower the 97% number.

    79. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Aighearach · · Score: 1

      This "round-Earth" theory is just a conspiracy to keep people from trying to sail far enough to find the island with the Fountain of Youth, which gets its power from excretions from the resident sand-leaches. The whole thing is funded by the medical-industrial-complex and administered by Liberal Trial Lawyers. And anybody who gets too close is executed by Soros and the Bilderberg Council.

      The reason for the anti-petroleum movement is that the oil production is connected to subterranean sand-leach breeding. If they can cap all the oil wells, man-made and natural, then they can cut off the sand-leach reproductive cycle by preventing their oil-fish larva from emerging as butterflies for the migration to the Fountain where they transform into sand-leaches. Then the Fountain will die and dry up, and the Doctors will have complete control over humanity by rationing life-maintaining "treatments."

    80. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by mpe · · Score: 1

      Given that there's remarkably little proof that this is not caused by humans, wouldn't it be better to follow the path that would avoid a catastrophe in the event that the models are close and it is human caused.

      Exactly what path is that? There are plenty of ideas which have the potyential to CAUSE a catastrophe. Even ignoring unexpected consequences.
      Plenty of supposedly "green" methods of generating electrity turn out to have similar, even larger, "carbon footprints" than burning fossil fuels to boil water. With an existing technology which is "low carbon" dismissed by "envronmentalists".
      This sounds like the so called "precautionary principle". Where "precautionary", along with "renewable" and "sustainable" has it's definition twisted in the sorts of strange ways associated with political extremism.

    81. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by mpe · · Score: 1

      If a climatologist and a mathematician disagree on the math used in a climate paper, who is the expert?

      That is very much the crux of the matter.
      In order to possibly be meaningful "climate science" must also follow the rules of many other sciences. They form a foundation to it. In the same way that biology must be consistent with both chemistry and physics.

    82. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by owski · · Score: 1

      You should really read the paper and not just the press release. This line in the press release hides a dirty little secret:

      In analyzing responses by sub-groups, Doran found that climatologists who are active in research showed the strongest consensus on the causes of global warming, with 97 percent agreeing humans play a role.

      Of the over 10,000 scientists contacted and the over 3,000 that replied they narrowed down the "climatologists who are active in research" to 79 individuals. The 97% figure represents just 77 people out of those 79.

      And that's amazing when you consider that the survey had just 2 questions:

      Q1: “When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?”

      Q2: “Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?”

      I'm amazed that anyone would answer no to either, particularly a "climatologist active in research".

    83. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by owski · · Score: 1

      The 97% is based on scientific polling of actual climate scientists. It is fair to say that about 19 out of 20 people actually doing research and publishing papers in the field of climatology have concluded that the buildup of greenhouse gas caused by human activity is becoming the driving force behind global warming.

      It's fair to say that 77 out of 79 have concluded it, since that's the actual number of climate scientists surveyed for that figure.

    84. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by owski · · Score: 1

      it is mechanical engineering, actually

      And only a bachelors at that.

    85. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by pr0fessor · · Score: 1

      Sure the EPA does some good work but the EPA is not making competition. Currently convenience store/filling station owners are just not loosing sleep over "Should I install a new gas pump, charging station, or some other fuel type?"

    86. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Art+Challenor · · Score: 1

      I'd recommend against using those and use ones that don't have such a large carbon footprint. For example:

      http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-sco...

      or solar:

      http://www.reuters.com/article...

      so long as you realize that the myth that solar panels generate more CO2 lifetime than say coal (or even natural gas) has long ago been de-bunked. (max 72g vs 1.68lbs or 2lbs for coal) (http://www.edfenergy.com/energyfuture/energy-gap-climate-change/solar-and-the-energy-gap-climate-change and http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/...)

    87. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by serviscope_minor · · Score: 1

      No, you're setting up a straw man. Why you are, I don't know.

      You keep on insisting that AGW catastophism and AGW are basically the same thing. They are not. The first one you made up, the second is real.

      97% of climatologists agree that the evidents to global warming caused by humans.

      Stop pretending this is not the case by lumping in loonies with scientists.

      --
      SJW n. One who posts facts.
    88. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by sideslash · · Score: 1

      You keep on insisting that AGW catastophism and AGW are basically the same thing. They are not. The first one you made up, the second is real.

      I didn't insist that they are the same thing. I am well aware that they are not the same thing, and that's why the 97% number (even if rigorously derived, which I doubt) is not particularly relevant to the climate change action/inaction debate. Richard Lindzen could easily fall under the 97%.

      97% of climatologists agree that the evidents to global warming caused by humans.

      What does that even mean? Are you drunk?

      Stop pretending this is not the case by lumping in loonies with scientists.

      I agree with that approach. In general, we need to distinguish between formal climate science, which is largely a rational undertaking that aims to be useful, versus political agendas. Like the way certain loonies at the IPCC politicize this stuff, focus on unimportant or misleading elements[1], remove statements of uncertainty in the summaries[2], and blow warnings way out of proportion into Armageddon[3].

      [1] Such as the (in)famous hockey stick, endlessly presented as the face of the IPCC reports for its shock value, even though it's not really as shocking as it seems when you understand how it was put together, e.g. dropping all of Briffa's tree ring proxies after 1960 or so because they didn't fit the desired curve, yet retaining earlier values from the series because they "fit the narrative".
      [2] In fact, the actual peer reviewed academic material assembled by the IPCC tends to be very cautious in tone, and most people would be surprised to learn that the wild eyed AGW catastrophism associated with it has more to do with people's opinions (including scientists' opinions, don't get me wrong), but is not so much driven by the research itself.
      [3] For example "All the Himalayan glaciers will melt by 2035! Doom! Flee for the hills!"

    89. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 1

      There is other data which suggest the 95% number is accurate to within about a 5% margin of error.

    90. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Just as long as it lets you dismiss science that's saying things you don't want to hear while pretending to be scientific.

      I don't dismiss the science. If you have nothing scientific to say, be gone.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    91. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Plumpaquatsch · · Score: 1

      Posting AC because even mild skepticism of AGW will get you burned as a heretic on /. too.

      Gee, since you are modded at +4 ATM, you are either an idiot or a liar.

      --
      Of course news about a fake are Fake News.
    92. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Carewolf · · Score: 1

      I see people say this all the time. Some mysterious group is willing to pay for skeptic research. I've never seen any evidence of this. Can you post a link to something substantial.

      You know of two people known as the Koch brothers? They fund a whole series of institutions doing science trolling.

      And to step out of American politics: In Denmark normally considered an environmental and left-leaning country the right wing government of the early 2000s hired the famous sceptic Bjørn Lombog (who coined the term climate sceptic) to lead an institute called the Environmental Assessment Institutue a climate studýing institute supposed to "evaluate" the state of climate studies. The institute only purpose was to prove that climate science was wrong, but was never able to prove anything, and ended up having to shut itself down as it proved its mission pointless (though only after a long serious of weak articles and bad science).

      Since then Bjørn Lomborg reluctingly stopped questiong whether global warming was happing or was man caused and is now running an initiate trying to argue that it is either not worthwhile or too late to do anything about it.

    93. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by serviscope_minor · · Score: 1

      I didn't insist that they are the same thing. I am well aware that they are not the same thing, and that's why the 97% number (even if rigorously derived, which I doubt) is not particularly relevant to the climate change action/inaction debate.

      Seriously what the fuck? so the fact that there is a strong concensus on climate change (a) existing and (b) being caused by humans is not relevent to the debate?

      What does that even mean? Are you drunk?

      Oe noes someone made a typo on the internet. What ever shall we do??? :faints:

      I agree with that approach. In general, we need to distinguish between formal climate science, which is largely a rational undertaking that aims to be useful, versus political agendas.

      Yeah and the 97% was about the climatologists doing formal climate change science.

      --
      SJW n. One who posts facts.
    94. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Plumpaquatsch · · Score: 1

      The way pro-AGW fanatics present arguments often stinks of conspiracy theories. (Those evile brothers, Big Oil, etc.)

      As opposed to "all climate scientists as well as all governments all over the world, for several decades". Yeah, one of those sounds like a conspiracy theory, say like MKUltra. The other one gets you laughed at by flat earthers and moon hoaxers for being over the top.

      --
      Of course news about a fake are Fake News.
    95. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by sideslash · · Score: 1

      Yeah and the 97% was about the climatologists doing formal climate change science.

      How useful many of those papers are is another question. And the most useful function Cook's 97% paper serves is to filter out the scientists from the cargo cultists. I find it difficult not to laugh at anybody who considers the 97% paper a high quality scientific research result that is meaningful for the climate change action/inaction debate. In a way Cook was unintentionally sabotaging his own camp by putting out such nonsense, and sort of descending into self parody of everything that's wrong with politicized AGW alarmism.

    96. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by BergZ · · Score: 1

      You know how Creationists like to repeat (over and over and over again) "it's just a theory!" about Evolution?
      Personally I just roll my eyes at that argument because I can see that they're trying to conflate the scientific use of the word "theory" and the common use of the word "theory".
      Your argument is no better.
      You are trying to conflate the scientific use of the word "consensus" with the common use of the "consensus".
      There is a difference.

      --
      Warning: This sig is not thread safe. For more information see Slashdot's sig policy.
    97. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by phlinn · · Score: 1

      Well, the 97% consensus paper cited above only got to that number after throwing out non-climatologists, taking them for over 3000 respondents to under 80. The linked press release mentioned the values for a particular subset of the scientiests whose responses were removed, but didn't give us info on phsysicists or mathematicians. I think it's highly likely that some of those in the removed set were skeptical, and basing their skepticisim within their specialty as applied within climate science. Not to mention the very broad wording of the questions, such that skeptics about the scope of the affect of humans on the warming would be included in the consensus.

      For a specific case, my first thought was McKintyre vs Mann, but they are both mathematicians by training.

      I wasn't trying to solve disputes in advance in any way, merely noting a flaw in the appeal to authority used by the comment I was responding to.

      --
      "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
    98. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by nickittynickname · · Score: 1

      "They fund a whole series of institutions doing science trolling." What institutions? What evidence is there the Koch brothers are involved? You give one example of a group that you say got shut down. Thats not the "huge grants for disproving or challenging anything related to AGW" that you said there were.

    99. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Reziac · · Score: 1

      Actually, I started off generally believing in GW and AGW, but the evidence presented for AGW (not to mention GW) has itself changed my mind.

      It doesn't help your case that the word "denier" is used exactly as is the word "heretic".

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
    100. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Nobody said 97% believed in climate catastrophism. The original study was whether publications appeared to support AGW THEORY, oppose it, or are agnostic. Not AGW catastrophism. As the concept of catastrophe is fairly variable from person to person, of course belief in impending catastrophe is going to be a wide spectrum.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    101. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      If you support your arguments, then it's less catastrophic when somebody tries to make fun of you.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    102. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Follow the money. How many grants are given to the study of ..... non catastrophic AGW? If you are a climatologist and want funding, you are pro-AGW, and you don't hide it, even if you are skeptical, as it is the only way to keep your funding.

      Of course, if this were funded by KOCH, you'd bet the funding would be an issue.

      OK, I"ll bite. How many grants are given to the study of ..... non catastrophic AGW? and how many grants are given to the study of catastrophic AGW? And how many to studies debunking AGW? If you have the answers to these questions, why haven't you provided them in your original post, to make your point? At very least it appears that you are engaging in slinging doubt like a shotgun full of mud, in hopes that at some point you might land on something correct. How do you put that into a study proposal, anyway? "I plan to correlate ocean temperatures with currents in order to prove that AGW will not be catastrophic" "NO! You must intend to prove that AGW WILL be catastrophic! Denied! Denied! Denied!!"

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    103. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by kilfarsnar · · Score: 1

      Yeah, I was afraid of that. It's at +3 at the time of this writing.

      --
      "What the American public doesn't know is what makes them the American public." -Ray Zalinsky (Tommy Boy)
    104. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by BergZ · · Score: 2
      You say:

      "Science is not supposed to be driven by consensus."

      It isn't and nobody ever said it was. You're arguing against position that nobody believes.
      Scientific consensus is only important as a signal to the general public. When a scientific consensus forms around a new theory it signals that the evidence for a theory is so strong that it has convinced a large majority of scientists in a field of study that the theory is accurate. It tells us "you can take the theory seriously now".

      You say:

      "You are supposed to design a theory that makes worthwhile predictions about some aspect of the real world and then test it in the real world to ensure it actually predicts stuff."

      I'm not a Climatologist but I'm pretty sure that is exactly what they've been doing: Making predictions and testing them.
      I suspect that the recently launched Orbiting Carbon Observatory satellite is going to collect data that will be used to test some predictions climate science has made about the sources and sinks of carbon.

      --
      Warning: This sig is not thread safe. For more information see Slashdot's sig policy.
    105. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by TheRealLifeboy · · Score: 1

      Except it's not 97% of the world's climate scientists. It's only 0.3%!

      " In Science and Education in August 2013, for example, David R. Legates (a professor of geography at the University of Delaware and former director of its Center for Climatic Research) and three coauthors reviewed the same papers as did Mr. Cook and found "only 41 papers—0.3 percent of all 11,944 abstracts or 1.0 percent of the 4,014 expressing an opinion, and not 97.1 percent—had been found to endorse" the claim that human activity is causing most of the current warming. Elsewhere, climate scientists including Craig Idso, Nicola Scafetta, Nir J. Shaviv and Nils- Axel Morner, whose research questions the alleged consensus, protested that Mr. Cook ignored or misrepresented their work" - From here

    106. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Actually, it's 97% of the papers which expressed some sort of explicit or implicit conclusion re AGW in the abstract. Best to be quite precise in our definitions of what is being asked and answered or we land in easily skeptified territory. Although in the study as a validation they did ask some thousand or so of the authors directly whether they believed in AGW or not, or were agnostic, and got results remarkably similar to what they gleaned from reading the abstracts.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    107. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      So... publications of scientists whose results disprove AGW aren't included in climatology papers? Where did those 3% of naysayers and 66% of agnostics come from, then? And where are these disprovers publishing then? (I know, here it comes, all together now, "They're not allowed to publish!" Probably secretly murdered by Al Gore's New World Order black heliocopters.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    108. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      "Why this isn't climate change at all! It's *removes mask from monster* Michael Mann and 97% of the world's scientists!"

      "We would have gotten away with it too if it weren't for you meddling billionaires!"

      (Oops. Should have added a spoiler alert.)

      "As a scientist who studies cloud formation around dust particles as nuclei, I have no idea why I would want to make the use of petroleum and coal obsolete, but... it's just too good a scam. Alright, count me in!"

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    109. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      We're supposed to believe that there is great debate among ecological researchers over whether an average rise of 2 degrees C will disturb local ecologies or not.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    110. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Rakarra · · Score: 1

      I always give myself a rule of at least half a day before complaining about moderation. :-)

    111. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Carewolf · · Score: 1

      "They fund a whole series of institutions doing science trolling." What institutions? What evidence is there the Koch brothers are involved?

      Are you joking? Sorry for linking WP, but the information there is consistent with what is available everywhere else and it is more centralized.

      Here are the two first I could find, there are many others but this should be enough: The Heritage Foundation and The Cato Institute. As for what evidence that the Koch brothers are involved? They are the official founders. For all the evil they do they do try to hide their involvement in political trolling of science.

    112. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Carewolf · · Score: 1

      "They fund a whole series of institutions doing science trolling." What institutions? What evidence is there the Koch brothers are involved?

      Are you joking? Sorry for linking WP, but the information there is consistent with what is available everywhere else and it is more centralized.

      Here are the two first I could find, there are many others but this should be enough: The Heritage Foundation and The Cato Institute. As for what evidence that the Koch brothers are involved? They are the official founders. For all the evil they do they do try to hide their involvement in political trolling of science.

      Sorry, make that: they do not try to hide..

    113. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by owski · · Score: 1

      Would you care to share it?

    114. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 1
    115. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by nobodie · · Score: 1

      Years ago I read Robert Anton Wilson's "Golden Apples of the Sun" trilogy, where he spears conspriacy theories in general by trying to fit them all into one ginormous eschaton conspiracy theory, for fun, drugs, rock 'n roll and wild sex (it was first published serially in Playboy, BTW). Anyway, following this trilogy he published a book called "Cosmic Trigger" where he explained his inner journey through Conspriacy Theory (CT) and where it landed him. I won't go through the whole thing, but the basic message (that I have been at pains to teach all my children, who are the only one's I can hold down long enough to explain a complicated coincept to) is that the human brain, because of its built-in pattern recognition abilities, is a conspiracy machine.
      Perhaps that is a bit strong, but the basic idea is that given random information we will find a pattern. Sometimes this is useful, sometimes it is garbage, but for the hunter/gatherer it was crucial to recognizing food for both hunting and gathering and feeding self and tribe. In the complex modern world, overwhelmed with information, we still must find the patterns to simplify our life and our responses to new input. This is the foundation of CT.
      CT is the use of this patterning ability as applied to random facts and information and creating patterns where there is none. For a Wilsonian example: Both Abraham Lincoln and JF Kennedy were assassinated on November 23rd, 99years apart, while sitting with their wife in a public space, by a single assassin. Clearly there must be conspiracy involved, the coincidence is too great to be without some underlying force that is crushing them. (by the way, there is a ton more fun stuff that can be added to this particular CT, but you already knew that didn't you?).
      Final point: CT is unbeatable because it is physically present in our brains. I have learned not to respond to people who are deep into a particular CT, it is hopeless. Time will heal it, or they will spend a life of misery suffering from their delusion. Example: my wife does some courier pickups two days a week. She picks up from a man who "discovered how to make hydrogen from water." He is being stopped from monetizing his amazing discovery by the oil and gas companies who are afraid of his discovery. They have kept him from getting financing for building the first commercial plant to make hydrogen fuel cells with his amazing (unopatented) process. I think simple reflection will show that the cost to the oil and gas companies of buying and using his process is miniscule compared to the gain they could make by controlling it through purchase. Obviously he hasn't "thought" of selling it to them.He just sees that there must be a conspiracy stopping him.

      --
      Subversion of spatial scale luxury decoration ideas.
    116. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      I don't think you understand what the models are saying. The models say that for every degree of CO2 warming, climate sensitivity will amplify that warming by an additional 3-4 times. They are saying the earth is hyper-sensitive to CO2. There is no evidence for this and the latest climate sensitivity estimates are much lower.

      What this means: assuming we don't find another energy source in the next two hundred years and continue burning fossil fuels (unlikely), and that a doubling of co2 will occur every 150 years:

      With high climate sensitivity: In 150 years temperatures increase by 3 or 4 degrees.
      With low sensitivity: In 150 years temperatures increase by 1 degree.

      With high climate sensitivity: In 300 years temperatures increase by 6 to 8 degrees.
      With low sensitivity: In 300 years temperatures increase by 2 degrees.

    117. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      CO2 itself only causes 1 degree of warming per doubling of CO2, which may happen in about 150 years. The additional warming is said to be due to earths hyper-sensitivity to CO2 warming. The models say the earth amplifies CO2 warming by 3-4 times.

    118. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 1

      I understand perfectly. Climate sensitivity is just completely irrelevant to my thesis, which was about the driving force behind climate change (i.e. what is actually adding or removing net energy from the Earth).

      Predicting the mean temperature increase of the lower atmosphere is a much more complicated subject which is irrelevant to what I was discussing.

    119. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      The problem is that the theory that CO2 is a prime driver of climate change is based largely on climate models, which assume a high climate sensitivity. Likewise, they rely on computer models when they say that AGW is responsible for at least half the recent warming. Since the models have failed to predict the 17 year "plateau" in warming, and since recent sensitivity estimates are much lower, I think it's fair to reassess.

      If climate sensitivity is low, then we have at least 80 years to switch energy sources (hopefully to some kind of innovative nuclear energy source) with no net negatives from global warming.

      If I truly believed the planet was in big trouble from CO2, I would push hard for increased funding for a variety of small, independent, innovative nuclear research projects. I don't see that happening.

    120. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 1

      Again, you do not need to factor in "climate sensitivity" to determine what is responsible for net changes in radiative forcing.

      It is like taking a fluid and putting it on the stove. You can put a thermometer in and figure out whether or not the fluid is warming. If the fluid is warming, then the fluid must be gaining net energy.

      You measure how much net energy is gained or lost to the environment and you measure how much net energy is being added or removed by the stove. You don't have to know the sensitivity of the fluid to temperature change (i.e. specific heat) to figure out that the stove is the dominant factor in heating up the fluid.

      It is exactly the same with Earth's atmosphere. There are a lot of factors which effect sensitivity (i.e. how much adding one Joule of energy to the Earth will heat up the lower atmosphere). There are not a lot of major factors that effect net energy gain or loss.

      You can figure out what is driving the temperature change without figuring out the details of the internal workings of the system.

    121. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      The theory that CO2 is the major driver of global warming is based on faulty climate models, which assume high climate sensitivity. So when you say you don't need to understand climate sensitivity to figure out that CO2 is the major temperature driver, you've got it backwards. High climate sensitivity forms the very basis for the theory that CO2 drives temperature. Without high climate sensitivity, CO2 has relatively little effect.

      The earth has been heating since the Little Ice Age. What do you think is the primary driver for that? What was the primary driver for the heating between ~1915-1945, which was very similar to the most recent period of heating? If "natural variation" is responsible for the sudden 17 year "pause" in global warming, why is natural variation rejected as an explanation for the 1979-98 heating?

      I don't care for your stove analogy because it leaves out a pretty major player when it comes to temperature. Maybe if you argued that CO2 was akin to putting a mesh lid on the pot it might be better. But we'd have to assume the water temperature had already reached equilibrium with the stove, right?

      When you turn up the heat on your pot of water, does the water heat up instantaneously, even if the heat output from the stove stays constant thereafter? What do you think caused the warming starting from the 1800's until today? What changed? Do you think the earth would heat up all at once? How can we be so certain these "natural factors" which are responsible for most of the heating since the 1800's aren't continuing to drive temperatures?

    122. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      The 97% number comes from two sources:

      1) The first was a poll which asked if the world was heating and if humans were having an effect of any significance. Ironically, most scientifically literate skeptics would answer 'yes' to both questions. That in itself should make one wonder whether it's a meaningful survey, since the scientific debate is very rarely about whether warming is happening or whether CO2 is a greenhouse gas. (But every group has its fringe elements, even skeptics.) Over 3000 scientists responded to the survey with 82% answering yes to both questions. The 97% number is based on a mere 77 of those ~3000 responses. While some have argued that those 77 scientists are the ones with the most expertise, the 97% number is widely used to convey an image of broad scientific consensus. In that case, the 82% number would much be much more representative of the views of the scientific community as a whole. Instead, the media and global warming supporters appear comfortable spreading misleading information. (As a Canadian lefty, I always thought this was something only the unscrupulous right wing would do.) In November, a survey by the AMS revealed that only 52% of Meteorologists believed humans were responsible for the majority of global warming. An earlier survey suggested 59% of Meteorologists believed humans caused global warming and only 30% were "very worried". Some other survey results regarding whether humans are contributing to global warming: Among earth scientists: 82%, ocean sciences: 91%, and geophysics: 88%. While these numbers indicate a generally high acceptance rate among scientists, they do not indicate the overwhelming consensus that we continually hear about.

      2) The second source for the 97% number was complete trash and originates from the website skepticalscience.com. I would be happy to discuss it further if you like.

    123. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 1

      We can measure to a pretty high degree of certainty how much net energy the greenhouse effect adds to the earth. We also know, to a very high degree of certainty, how much net energy a metric ton of CO2 increases the greenhouse effect by.

      This is simple thermodynamics.

      The "little ice age" was not a global, long-term temperature change. As far as we know, it was a local phenomena. We simply do not have accurate data for that period. It is irrelevant to the discussion as we do not have any good records of the three main radiative forcing factors from that period.

      The rest of your questions represent further irrelevant cherry picking of noise out of the overall warming trend.

      We know that the "natural factors" are not driving warming because no natural factors exist that can explain the warming. As per my original statement, there are only three major factors that can add or remove net energy from the Earth and we know that neither solar irradience nor albedo is responsible because the net change in radiative forcing from those factors is dwarfed by the net change in the greenhouse effect since we began careful monitoring around the late 1800's.

      And we know that the major increase in the greenhouse effect's radiative forcing is drive by the buildup of CO2, and we know the buildup is due to human industry because we know how much extra CO2 we add to the atmosphere every year.

      The noise in the trend is caused either by a temporary aberration in one of the three major sources of radiative forcing, or it is caused by changes in how the energy on earth is distributed (like, for instances, how much atmospheric heat is being absorbed by the oceans). None of these have any long-term effect on the warming trend, because they are not actually adding or removing heat from the earth. They are only moving heat from one part of the earth to another.

      The short answer is, noise is absolutely irrelevant. You might as well ask why it's so cold in January in Alaska when the average temperature of the Earth's lower atmosphere is a balmy 61 degrees.

      You keep talking about "natural factors", but you cannot provide any actual evidence of current sources of increased radiative forcing over the past 100 years which are on the same net energy level as the increase in the greenhouse effect. Either show the amount of Joules added by these unnamed "natural factors" over the past 100 years or concede that there is no evidence for their existence.

    124. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      What do you propose caused the heating from ~1918 - 1945? What do you propose is responsible for the other portion of the recent temperature increase?

      You keep saying "greenhouse effect" like it's a known quantity. It isn't. It depends entirely on climate sensitivity which varies wildly depending on which paper you read. I've even seen one paper which suggests a possible negative feedback, which would mean the earth's climate is relatively stable and will compensate in some way for the added CO2. On the other hand, I've seen estimates as high as 10 degrees. Does anybody seriously believe the climate will amplify every degree of CO2 heating by 10 times? (How many ordinary people are even aware that climate models assume 300% additional heating not directly attributed to CO2?) The wide range of climate sensitivity estimates should make it obvious that the greenhouse effect, as defined by climate modelers, is not hard science.

      The "it must be CO2 because we can't think of anything else" argument is not very strong. Especially when the heat doesn't materialize. And how do they explain the lack of recent heating? "It must be 'natural variation' because we can't think of anything else". They want to have their cake and eat it too! How about "Our models were incorrect, and global warming may not be a threat after all." Unlikely. Nobody likes to admit when they're wrong. Try debating someone on Slashdot, for example. You will likely agree with me on that point, no? Luckily scientists are not as prone to human failings as either you or I.

    125. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 1

      The 97% number, within a reasonable margin of error, has been evidenced by a lot more than 2 studies.

      Meteorologists are not climate scientists and most do not study climate change, so I am unsure what the consensus of meteorologists has to do with the consensus among those who actively research climate change.

      Also, even if the number were only (91%), I would call it an "overwhelming" consensus, as per the definition of overwhelming [very great amount]. 95% or higher is probably best described as unanimous.

    126. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 1

      1. You keep misusing the definition of climate sensitivity. The amount of energy added to the atmosphere by the greenhouse effect is a very well-known quantity and it has absolutely nothing to do with climate sensitivity. Rather, it is called radiative forcing. This is basic undergraduate thermodynamics. There is no "climate sensitivity" involved.

      2. Climate sensitivity is how much the temperature will change in a certain part of the climate in response to the net change in energy equilibrium in the atmosphere. It has nothing to do with this discussion, despite your repeated attempts to use it. This discussion purely is related to the net change in energy of the Earth-sun system. Not the net change in temperature of a certain part of the Earth.

      3. We know that there are only three major factors that affect the net thermal energy of the Earth and we know that the non greenhouse effect factors are pretty close to flat in relation to greenhouse gasses. Claiming that there is some mysterious fourth force that explains the net change in energy is really just a pathetic attempt at denialism. In physics, it is called "not even wrong", because there is no way to disprove it. You might as well say that global warming is caused by invisible faerie farts. It is just unscientific.

      You either have the data or you do not have the data. If you do not have the data (which you obviously don't), then you have no argument because you have no valid theory.

      4. I'm not going to explain cherry picked temperature data, because it is irrelevant to the discussion.

      5. Oceanographers believe that the amounts of heat absorbed and released by the oceans play a strong role in year-to-year variations of climate. It is very likely that during La Niña years, the oceans are absorbing a lot of the heat. It is also important to remember that the sun goes through natural cycles, which is ultimately where a lot of the noise probably comes from. Even though these natural cycles have become overwhelmed by CO2, they are still strong enough to create a lot of noise (i.e. year-to-year peaks and valleys). The amount of CO2 we add on a year-by-year basis creates less radiative forcing than the natural fluctuations of solar irradiance. However, in the long term (the century-to-century data), CO2 dominates and overwhelms solar fluctuations.

    127. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      I don't think you know what "climate sensitivity" means. Without climate sensitivity the amount of radiative forcing per doubling of CO2 is about 1 degree. One single degree of warming over 150 years is not catastrophic. If that's all we have to worry about, then we have nothing to worry about.

      As I have said, the world has been heating since the 1800's. The IPCC says that AGW is responsible for 50%+ of the most recent heating. This is what the mainstream climate science says. So do tell: what "mysterious force" is responsible for the other portion of heating, and for the majority of heating that has occurred since the little ice age?

      The IPCC's claim that AGW is responsible for 50%+ of the most recent heating is based upon models which assume a high climate sensitivity. Take that sensitivity away and their estimate would have been far lower.

      Since the IPCC models themselves predicted that there would be no plateaus in global warming for as long as 15-20 years (depending on who you talk to), it is not cherry picking to point out that it has not warmed in the last 17 years. You cannot simply dismiss 17 years of no warming as "noise". Climate scientists have not.

    128. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      What other evidence shows that 97% of the scientific community believes the earth is likely to warm to dangerous levels because of CO2?

    129. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 1

      I know exactly what climate sensitivity means. It is (radiative forcing)=(climate sensitivity)*(change in temperature). Radiative forcing and temperature changes are something we measure DIRECTLY. Climate sensitivity is something we INFER. Climate sensitivity does not affect radiative forcing of CO2 because we can measure this directly, both in the lab and by using satellites.

      Climate sensitivity does not affect radiative forcing of CO2. The radiative forcing of CO2 is a measurement of how much energy a kilogram of CO2 is trapping (redirecting groundward rather than allowing to reach space). This is a well-known, non-controversial, and precisely measured number. The climate sensitivity has zero effect on radiative forcing.

      Climate sensitivity is the response of the lower atmosphere (or any other local climate) to radiative forcing. Radiative forcing causes climate, not the other way around.

        From the IPCC report: "Radiative forcing is a measure of the influence a factor has in altering the balance of incoming and outgoing energy in the Earth-atmosphere system and is an index of the importance of the factor as a potential climate change mechanism. In this report radiative forcing values are for changes relative to preindustrial conditions defined at 1750 and are expressed in Watts per square meter (W/m2)."

      Radiative forcing is something that we can measure directly and it is not affected by climate sensitivity. We know how much energy comes from the sun and we know how much energy a kilogram of CO2 traps. Repeatedly stating that we cannot measure this just shows you do not understand what radiative forcing is.

      Climate sensitivity is the coefficient which governs the RESPONSE to radiative forcing in terms of temperature change. Unlike radiative forcing, sensitivity is something we cannot measure directly and must INFER based on the temperature change caused by adding energy.

      Again, I will repeat my analogy, because you do not seem to understand the difference.

      I cannot measure the specific heat of a liquid directly, but what I can do is heat it on a stove. I can measure exactly how much energy the stove is adding, which is analogous to radiative forcing. We know this number. There is no significant scientific controversy, because we can use satellites to measure exactly how much extra energy CO2 is trapping. By measuring how quickly the liquid heats up in response to radiative forcing of the stove, I can infer the specific heat, just like scientists can infer the climate sensitivity from seeing how quickly the troposphere heats up when we add a trillion Joules of energy.

    130. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      You know how much heat CO2 should 'trap', if the earth behaved like a simple lab experiment. What you wrote above vastly overstates the level of certainty and understanding, and does not explain how climate sensitivity estimates can vary from 1 to 10.

    131. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by GiordyS · · Score: 1
      Your graph is misleading. Just to take the first statistic listed, it it is based on a study by Farnsworth and Lichter. Here's some information I found regarding its findings (from http://journalistsresource.org...):

      --

      • 97% of the 489 scientists surveyed agreed that that global temperatures have risen over the past century. Moreover, 84% agreed that “human-induced greenhouse warming” is now occurring.”
      • “There was greater debate over the likelihood of substantial warming in the near future, with 56% seeing at least a 50-50 chance that temperatures will rise” 2 degrees Celsius over the next 50 to 100 years.
      • “When [survey participants were] asked to rate the effects on a ten-point scale from trivial (1) to catastrophic (10), the mean response was 6.6, with 41% seeing great danger (ratings of 8-10), 44% moderate danger (4-7), and 13% little danger."

      That doesn't convey an overwhelming consensus in catastrophic global warming at all. Most skeptics agree that "'human-induced greenhouse warming' is now occurring”, including myself. That is much different than saying "global warming is largely caused by humans". Be careful when relying on wikipedia.

    132. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 1

      You are moving the goalposts. You cannot deny that there is a strong scientific consensus that human activity has become the dominant driver behind global climate change so you are now attempting to change the subject from the cause of global warming to the effects.

      Also, it should be noted that this particular survey was of scientists in general, not people who actively study the causes or effects of global warming. The scientific consensus among experts in the field is that the effects will become increasingly severe and that the IPCC report is an accurate model of the effects based on our current best understanding of the science.

    133. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 1

      No, we know how much heat CO2 traps based on direct measurement, just like we know how much heat reaches earth from the sun. The error bars are reasonably small because these are direct measurements, not inferred values.

      Not only can we determine how much radiative forcing CO2 will add via controlled lab experiments, we can directly measure the amount to confirm that our lab-generated models are correct. In terms of known sources of radiative forcing, the accuracy of CO2 values is probably only behind the accuracy of solar irradiance. This is not complicated at all. It is all basic undergraduate thermodynamics.

      I agree that climate sensitivity is a more complicated, more controversial subject, because we can only measure it indirectly and there are a lot of factors inherent in it that are difficult to quantify. However, as I originally stated, climate sensitivity is irrelevant to figuring out the DRIVING energy behind global warming. It is only relevant to predicting future warming of individual climates with accuracy.

    134. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      The IPCC says that it is "very likely" that the extra CO2 we've introduced is responsible for at least 50% of the warming since 1950. That's not a very precise statement. Without high climate sensitivity, that estimate would be much lower, and that's a fact.

    135. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure what you mean. I am disputing the strength of the consensus that human activity is the dominant driver in global warming. That's why I said that there is a big difference between saying "humans are causing some warming" and saying the warming is "largely caused by humans". The graph misrepresents what the Farnsworth and Lichter study actually says. (That's the first study the graph references, and the only one I've checked so far.)

      As I've said before, phrases like "broad scientific consensus" and "97%" are often used, but they are simply not accurate. And global warming activists don't seem to care about accuracy in cases like these. (Granted, this kind of behaviour is endemic to human nature. Both sides tend to turn a blind eye to the "inaccuracies" and errors promulgated by their own camp.)

    136. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by UnknowingFool · · Score: 1

      You should really read the paper and not just the press release. This line in the press release hides a dirty little secret:

      I have and there is no secret. The press release does a good job of summarizing the results.

      Of the over 10,000 scientists contacted and the over 3,000 that replied they narrowed down the "climatologists who are active in research" to 79 individuals. The 97% figure represents just 77 people out of those 79.

      Now that is a gross mischaracterization of the data. 10,000 scientists were contacted. Their expertise ranged from many disciplines. 3,146 responded. The two questions were asked with 90% and 82% voting "Yes" respectively (2831 and 2579). Out of the 3146, then the list was narrowed down to scientists who were actively publishing and more than 50% of their papers in climate science. That eliminated most of the respondents down to 79 which are basically the experts in the field.

      Even if you discard the 97% number, the 90% and 82% are hard to ignore.

      I'm amazed that anyone would answer no to either, particularly a "climatologist active in research".

      Yet two experts did. There are biology professors like Michael Behe who argue for Intelligent Design instead of evolution based on very little evidence. Thankfully there are in the minority.

      --
      Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
    137. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by sideslash · · Score: 1

      No, we know how much heat CO2 traps based on direct measurement

      Your faith is strong, but it's misguided and based on popular oversimplifications. Here's Richard Lindzen writing in a WSJ editorial:

      There are, however, some things left unmentioned about the IPCC claims. For example, the observations are consistent with models only if emissions include arbitrary amounts of reflecting aerosols particles (arising, for example, from industrial sulfates) which are used to cancel much of the warming predicted by the models. The observations themselves, without such adjustments, are consistent with there being sufficiently little warming as to not constitute a problem worth worrying very much about.

      In addition, the IPCC assumed that computer models accurately included any alternative sources of warming—most notably, the natural, unforced variability associated with phenomena like El Nino, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, etc. Yet the relative absence of statistically significant warming for over a decade shows clearly that this assumption was wrong. Of course, none of this matters any longer to those replacing reason with assertions of authority.

    138. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 1

      His comment has absolutely nothing to do with this discussion. He is writing about tropospheric temperature models, not driving sources of radiative forcing.

    139. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by sideslash · · Score: 1
      Maybe you're in a different discussion by now, but many parents ago I posted:

      Carbon sensitivity can make the difference between an expectation of climate change catastrophe, versus the anthropogenic component being dwarfed in the long term by the fluctuations of natural variability. As far as I can tell, the urgency or non-urgency of the climate change debate rests on this piece. And we don't know the answer to it.

      So it's on topic for the discussion _I_ was having. Maybe you are talking to yourself. /just-joking

    140. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 1

      The data does not support your conclusion. The survey did not ask "has human activity become the predominant factor in global warming?"

      But there is plenty of data to suggest that actual climatologists believe that. It is right there in the IPCC report. When the Bush Administration asked the National Academy of Sciences to review climate change and the IPCC's conclusions (and keep in mind, the panel would be made up of the best American scientists in their relevant field), they concluded that the IPCC report was an extremely accurate summary of the science as it existed at the time the review was conducted.

    141. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 1

      That is simply how scientists write. In science, every statement is pretty much a working theory and subject to refutation, whether it be the theory of gravity or the conclusion that CO2 is the prime driver of global warming.

      It is easy to criticize any science, because no scientific endeavor, by its very nature, can ever reach 100% certainty.

      But ultimately, all those criticisms are meaningless unless you can actually propose a better, alternative theory. Show me strong evidence of any driving source of radiative forcing that is of a higher magnitude than the increase in the greenhouse effect. Saying "there could be an alternate explanation" is meaningless unless you are actually willing to put your cards on the table, create an actual alternate theory, and open it for criticism.

      You basically want to have your cake and eat it too. It's like the evolution deniers saying, "well God could have done it." Well, actually show how God did it and you may have a right to criticize. Until then, your criticisms are meaningless because you are not putting forward your own theory to be tested and criticized.

    142. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by Mr_Wisenheimer · · Score: 1

      Again though, I was talking about radiative forcing, which measures the actual amount of net energy being added or removed from the Earth. This is measured directly and we know the increase in the greenhouse effect is dwarfing the natural variation (solar irradiance and albedo) because we can directly measure the net energy gained or lost.

      This really is not open for any significant debate and is a settled science. We know that CO2 is causing global warming because we know that it is adding energy to the atmosphere at a rate that dwarfs any observed natural variations.

      Climate sensitivity actually has absolutely nothing to do with the sources and degrees of radiative forcing. It is only useful in local models of warming (i.e. change in net temperature of some part of the earth, not change in net energy levels).

      So, if you want to know how much the cities of the earth are going to heat up on average by 2100 assuming a certain buildup of CO2, climate sensitivity is important, but it is irrelevant to the question of what is driving the warming.

    143. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      The survey did not ask "has human activity become the predominant factor in global warming?"

      That's precisely the point I've been trying to make. The survey did not ask that question. Therefore the graph you posted misrepresents the survey results.

    144. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by sideslash · · Score: 1

      I disagree. We are not entitled to say that a change in carbon will effect a change in net energy that we can predict using simple measurements. One reason is that a change in carbon causes changes in other features of the atmosphere that have a profound effect on the planet's warming or lack thereof. Climate change is chaotic and, thus far anyway, it's been impossible to predict over the long term.

      Check out this article explaining why this is complex. For example, changing the CO2 changes the water vapor in the atmosphere, which will quickly goof up your best intentioned "back of the envelope" calculations.

    145. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by reboot246 · · Score: 1

      Are they taking the carbon dioxide emitted by underwater volcanoes seriously yet? Get back to me when they do.

    146. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by GiordyS · · Score: 1

      When you say "that is simply how scientists write", are you saying we shouldn't take the IPCC statements at face value?

      I don't think we need other models to recognize and point out the deficiencies in the current model. Science is supposed to embrace scrutiny. If the climate models don't work, if their forecasts continue to diverge further and further from empirical observation, you could still say that any criticism is meaningless until somebody proposes a better theory.

      But there are other models out there. According to Judith Curry: "...the problem is that the IPCC and climate models only provide one method for making predictions. Guessing, climatology, stadium wave, extrapolation of trend, are all methods that might produce better predictions, and these are ignored/dismissed by the IPCC and policy makers in favor alarming predictions from climate models."

    147. Re:"Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully." by stoatwblr · · Score: 1

      Yup. Part of my work is supporting scientitsts engaged in running research which would help validate/disprove AGW calculations.

      It requires serious number crunching and analysis of the albdeo of every square km of satellite ground imagery gathered over the last 40 years(*) - and has trouble getting tens of thousands of euro for the required computing and storage kit, without even funding the programmers needed (funding for them has had to be obtained elsewhere). Meantime various interests are throwing tens of millions at full-on denial.

      If there's a slightest possibility that research will confirm AGW, funding effecttively ceases to exist.

      (*) Measuring the planet's surface reflectivity (albedo) allows calculation of how much of the sun's heat is bounced straight back into space. What's left is emitted more slowly and the rate is controlled by atmospheric greenhouse gas levels (which have been accurately tracked over the last 50 years). Combine this with solar output levels (also tracked accurately for decades) and you can see which theories coincide with reality.

      Ground-based temperature measurements are quite unreliable, as they have been heavily distorted by the biggest changes having been at airfields which were originally rural paddocks and are now large paved areas close to large cities (urban heat island effect) and there quite simply haven't been enough weather stations worldwide to gather undistorted readings (the vast majority of the planet's land area has no measurement history at all!). That's on top of the issue that "weather is not climate" and "local short/medium/long term climatic changes or cycles are not the same as global trends"

  3. That is not how conspiracy theories work. by SuricouRaven · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Evidence against them only makes them stronger.

    1. Re:That is not how conspiracy theories work. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      This is not a conspiracy theory group ... this is a corporate funded anti-issue group so yes this should work against them.

    2. Re:That is not how conspiracy theories work. by Charliemopps · · Score: 1

      This is not a conspiracy theory group ... this is a corporate funded anti-issue group so yes this should work against them.

      Their funding is irrelevant. People will believe it anyway. Look at how slashdot reacts to any story with the word "Nuclear" in it... it's irrelevant it the entire story is an alarmist ad/click trap, people want to believe it so bad they throw common sense out the window.
      The guy should have just opened up his email voluntarily. He could then remove anything personal, which I'm guessing is his primary concern.

    3. Re:That is not how conspiracy theories work. by I'm+New+Around+Here · · Score: 1

      N'o. I' do'ubt they' 'do.'

      --
      If you think I voted for Trump because of this post, you're wrong. I voted for Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party. Again.
    4. Re:That is not how conspiracy theories work. by Jason+Levine · · Score: 2

      Evidence against them? What evidence against them?

      (Conspiracy groups either ignore evidence against them or claim it is part of the conspiracy.)

      --
      My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
    5. Re:That is not how conspiracy theories work. by BergZ · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Nope. Mann's work, just like every other scientist on the planet, should be judged on the basis of what he has published.
      We all know why ATI wanted access to Mann's emails: So that they could cherry-pick some juicy out of context quote to smear Mann with.

      --
      Warning: This sig is not thread safe. For more information see Slashdot's sig policy.
    6. Re:That is not how conspiracy theories work. by tbannist · · Score: 2

      The guy should have just opened up his email voluntarily. He could then remove anything personal, which I'm guessing is his primary concern.

      If he had removed anything they'd just claim that the removed emails contain the evidence that they were looking for, and more people would be inclined to believe them because they now have evidence that he's hiding something. Frankly, I suspect even if he opened up his email voluntarily and didn't remove anything personal they'd claim that obviously he'd already hidden the evidence they were looking for. Witch hunts don't end just because you're co-operating with your would-be executioners.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    7. Re:That is not how conspiracy theories work. by BergZ · · Score: 2

      There were at least 5 independent investigations launched as a result of Climategate and none of them found any evidence of scientific malpractice. That is to say the emails didn't reveal anything about Climatology that isn't happening in every other branch of scientific research.

      Say, but on the topic of scientific malpractice: Did you hear what happened to the climate change "skeptic" journal Pattern Recognition in Physics?
      The nepotism and scientific malpractice became so rampant that the publisher actually had to shut the whole thing down (it was becoming an embarrassment)!

      --
      Warning: This sig is not thread safe. For more information see Slashdot's sig policy.
    8. Re:That is not how conspiracy theories work. by Raenex · · Score: 1

      There were at least 5 independent investigations launched as a result of Climategate and none of them found any evidence of scientific malpractice. That is to say the emails didn't reveal anything about Climatology that isn't happening in every other branch of scientific research.

      If what occurred at CRU is within normal bounds of science then science is in a sad state of affairs. What kind of scientist withholds data on the grounds that somebody will find fault with their work? What kind of scientist would rather delete said data than see it released? What kind of scientist asks other scientists to delete email discussions on a public report of global impact regarding the environmental issue of the day? What kind of scientist chops off proxy data that shows a discrepeancy and splices in non-proxy data in its place?

      The answer to all of those questions is Phil Jones. If you think a whitewash of 5 reports makes all of this ok, then you don't care about science. That he wasn't, at a minimum, fired for misconduct speaks volumes. That to this day he is still defended as a legitimate scientist shows the problems with the politics of climate science as a whole.

      By the way, at least one report dinged him on the data withholding and the WMO graph, but he was never held accountable to the extent he should have been.

    9. Re:That is not how conspiracy theories work. by BergZ · · Score: 2

      "If what occurred at CRU is within normal bounds of science then science is in a sad state of affairs."

      I've heard reports that the number of scientific papers being retracted is rising in all fields of study, so I have to ask:
      How do you know that what occurred at the CRU is not "within normal bounds of science"? You can't actually know that unless we can read the work related emails of all scientists in all fields of study to objectively compare them... and that's where a sincere argument for greater scientific transparency begins:
      A sincere argument for greater scientific transparency starts with new rules that apply generally to all scientists in all fields of study regardless of who pays for their research (public or private funding). That's how you raise the bar for scrutiny when you genuinely care about the quality of science.

      The American Traditions Institute is not genuinely interested in greater scientific transparency, they're just interested in casting doubt on a specific scientist (and his specific field of study) because they have deemed his research "heresy" to their politics.

      --
      Warning: This sig is not thread safe. For more information see Slashdot's sig policy.
    10. Re:That is not how conspiracy theories work. by Raenex · · Score: 1

      I've heard reports that the number of scientific papers being retracted is rising in all fields of study, so I have to ask:
      How do you know that what occurred at the CRU is not "within normal bounds of science"?
      A sincere argument for greater scientific transparency starts with new rules that apply generally to all scientists in all fields of study regardless of who pays for their research (public or private funding). That's how you raise the bar for scrutiny when you genuinely care about the quality of science.

      This is sophistry. The behavior I outlined is inexcusable, as it exemplified actions completely against scientific principles. This isn't some new or changing standard. All you're doing is weakening science by defending this garbage because it fits your political position.

      The American Traditions Institute is not genuinely interested in greater scientific transparency, they're just interested in casting doubt on a specific scientist (and his specific field of study) because they have deemed his research "heresy" to their politics.

      Maybe they aren't, but it goes beyond the American Traditions Institute. As Climategate showed, there was plenty of rotten science to be uncovered, which Mann was deeply involved in. There are legit skeptics, and it starts with Steve McIntyre's original and continuing work on exposing the flawed foundations of the "hockey stick" and other abuses.

    11. Re:That is not how conspiracy theories work. by BergZ · · Score: 1

      "If you think a whitewash of 5 reports makes all of this ok ... [logical fallacy (ad hominem) omitted]"

      I have seen the "skeptics" of climate change state that the independent investigations were, as you have said, "a whitewash" yet they've never provided a shred of credible evidence to support that statement. Prove it (let's just get this out of the way: blogs & op-eds do not count as evidence).
      It is time for you to put-up or shut-up.

      All I've seen so far is you "skeptics" complaining about getting exactly what you asked for (you asked for "an audit of climate science") but it didn't arrive at the conclusion you wanted (the conclusion you wanted "climate science is a hoax/fraud/scam")!

      --
      Warning: This sig is not thread safe. For more information see Slashdot's sig policy.
    12. Re:That is not how conspiracy theories work. by Raenex · · Score: 1

      [logical fallacy (ad hominem) omitted]

      It's not a logical fallacy or ad hominem to point out a blatant disregard for scientific principles. You can take this position, but you will be called on it.

      I have seen the "skeptics" of climate change state that the independent investigations were, as you have said, "a whitewash" yet they've never provided a shred of credible evidence to support that statement.

      That's a lie. I've outlined twice already what was done. I even said that "at least one report dinged him on the data withholding and the WMO graph". You have not refuted or even disputed any of it, but instead came back and tried to excuse it as standard science. Now you come belatedly and ask for new evidence, while refuting none of the old.

      At this point the basic charges as I've outlined them aren't in dispute. What's left is personal judgment on the issue. I can point to a prominent scientist like Muller who were outraged by the issue, but I can't force somebody to change their mind who sees the same evidence and shows indifference because they're defending a political cause.

      Prove it (let's just get this out of the way: blogs & op-eds do not count as evidence).

      Right, you try to dismiss evidence out of hand, even though one of the biggest critics and one of the primary movers in this controversy, Steve McIntyre, details the vast majority of his work on his blog.

  4. Inb4 the denialist argument of the day by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    This is copy-pasted from an earlier comment, because I'm getting tired of repeating myself. You need to get a fucking clue. Anon because no one deserves modpoints for copypasta.

    The foundation of AGW is based on the physical properties of CO2, specifically its absorption spectrum. This is measurable both under laboratory conditions and via satellite. Theoretically you could measure it yourself. Sunlight shines on Earth, and Earth re-radiates this same energy at a lower wavelength. This is described by the Stefan-Boltzmann Law. You can trivially calculate that, based on the incident solar irradiation and Earth's albedo, the planet should be about -18 degrees C. The effect of the atmosphere is to slow radiation leaving the Earth (the atmosphere is mostly transparent to incoming solar radiation). Outgoing radiation is absorbed and re-emitted often before it reaches space -- the mean free path varies with the exact partial pressure, but is generally in the low tens of meters.

    The lower atmosphere is already pretty much opaque to outgoing radiation; increased CO2 does not block more radiation than would otherwise be blocked. There was a point where it was theorized that no warming could occur because of this. However, it was determined that the effect of an increased partial pressure of CO2 was to extend the CO2-rich region further into space. That this increases the heat energy on the planet's surface should be obvious. The direct effect of a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere is extremely easy to calculate, again using Stefan-Boltzmann, and it comes out to 3.7 W/m^2, which is usually considered to be equivalent to 1 degree C.

    Unless you can find a new way to radiate energy to space, or unless everything we know about radiation is wrong, then the Earth must experience at least that degree of warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Anything further than that is a matter for study and scientific debate, and of course the effects in different places. However, given that we have all this H2O lying around the place, it's expected that will contribute more to the warming trend, hence the IPCCs estimates of 2-4 degrees.

    1. Re:Inb4 the denialist argument of the day by sumdumass · · Score: 1

      Its not yhe data that thry claim is wrong with the lack of warming claim.

      What they say busts the claim is that the oceans all the sudden are more of a sink then in years past. Actually, they do not claim anything is magically different other than the understanding of ow much of a sink the oceans are. Of course i find that problematic because the temps 30 years ago would have had the same intrraction. But evidently in the slow warming periods, it is important to make that claim as it clearly busts other claims.

    2. Re:Inb4 the denialist argument of the day by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      so...why have temperaturse not risen during last 15-17 years while C)2 went up?

      Good question, probably we're putting a lot of heat into melting glaciers and heating the ocean. It's not really my field of study. It also has nothing to do with the direct forcing effect, which is based on simple physical laws. I would not expect that the Earth would warm uniformly or evenly, nor for CO2 to be equivalent to a temperature dial except in the broadest sense. As stated, the direct effect is actually a fairly small one, it's the feedback loops, especially that of water vapor, that are expected to contribute more to the warming. If you look at 1 degree C per doubling and think, "Okay, not so bad," then you're probably not wrong and at least not intellectually dishonest. However, it's pretty well understood that we have a lot of water lying around the place, that water vapor is a far more effective greenhouse gas, and that warmer air can hold substantially more water vapor. There are feedbacks which oppose the warming as well; I'm given to understand it's a complicated subject.

      did the Stefan-Boltzmann Law not work when CO2 much higher in the past, and temperatures were lower than today?

      Read it. It doesn't describe the atmosphere per se, it applies to anything that re-radiates light. The direct forcing effect is 1 degree C global temp per doubling. Do the math on the percent increase over whatever period you like and figure out the effective warming. Again, CO2 by itself is not a big deal, at least until you get to Venus-like levels. There are a lot of other things which affect the climate, many of which have a greater effect. However, at the moment, we are only considering one thing, and holding all other factors constant. We don't even necessarily have to be talking about the Earth's atmosphere, and certainly no number was given for the initial partial pressure. However, back in the real world, we have quite a lot of energy coming from the Sun, which doesn't vary very much, about .1% or less per decade, and some geothermal energy, which is equally invariant. So, if the energy input is constant, and the energy output determined by only the atmosphere and the input, we can say for certain that there will be warming, and it only remains to be seen how much. Again, we know that it has to be a certain (tolerable) amount, but we're afraid that it will be much more.

      The warming might not even be all that bad, except for the rate of change, which is unprecedented. We're doing two Pinatubo-equivalents per day, or one-ish Yellowstone supervolcano per year. The eruptions of Mt. St. Helens and Pinatubo for a brief while equalled humanity's CO2 output. Obviously that level of continuous volcanism would be catastrophic, and even though things like the Deccan Traps happened over the course of millions of years, they were still associated with mass extinctions. Humanity is already a mass extinction event, but so far mostly for the megafauna. We will survive this too, but there are rather a lot of us on the planet right now and we'd generally like to keep it hat way. I am sure that you're not quite so dumb as to think that we could jump to 2000+ ppm and 6 degrees of warming tomorrow without any ill effects, even though life continued quite happily during those conditions historically. The rate of change is more of a problem than the change itself.

    3. Re:Inb4 the denialist argument of the day by coinreturn · · Score: 2

      so...why have temperaturse not risen during last 15-17 years while C)2 went up?

      Holy shit that canard has been busted more times than I can count.

      Of course, moderated into oblivion by deniers. No surprise there. Do you guys really fail to understand the cherry-picking of the data point 15-17 years ago and the false "trend" from that point?

  5. Less than a flea bite.

    1. Re:$250 by BasilBrush · · Score: 1

      'Tis but a scratch!
      It's just a flesh wound!

  6. Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by ideonexus · · Score: 5, Interesting

    It seems to me that the Climate Skeptics are making the same mistake the anti-eugenics movement made in 1925 with the Scopes Monkey Trial, which fought the teaching of evolution in schools. Most people don't know this, but the anti-evolution activists were horrified by the textbook's use of Evolution to justify Eugenics, but instead of attacking the public policy proposals of the Eugenics Movement, they attacked the science of Evolution, and history remembers them as buffoons for combating the scientific consensus.

    Today, Climate Skeptics are fighting the scientific consensus instead of debating the policies being proposed from that consensus. I myself am an adaptationist, I don't care if we do anything about Global Warming for another 20-30 years and at that point I have faith that civilization will start to engineer its way out of the problem... however, I find myself on the side of the environmentalists with their oftentimes draconian public-policy initiatives because I believe in scientific literacy, and the anti-science positions of today's Climate Skeptics threaten to undo the scientific progress on which our civilization depends for its survival.

    --
    i ~ Celebrating Science, Cyberspace, Speculation
    1. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by scotts13 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      ...I don't care if we do anything about Global Warming for another 20-30 years and at that point I have faith that civilization will start to engineer its way out of the problem...

      "We'll invent something to fix this when the time comes" is not a sound policy, or a policy at all. It's wishful thinking. What if we don't?

    2. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by ideonexus · · Score: 1, Interesting

      That's a fair argument, and that's also why I used the word "faith" to describe my opinion. I would love to continue having a constructive dialog on this... but unfortunately, we can't move the conversation on Climate Change to a discussion of what, if anything, we should do about it until we get the public to accept the scientific consensus on it. This is how the Skeptics are winning, by preventing the dialog from moving forward.

      --
      i ~ Celebrating Science, Cyberspace, Speculation
    3. Re: Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by KingOfBLASH · · Score: 1

      It's a very valid argument. You have two choices: action and inaction. You weigh the costs of both and make a choice based on which position will leave you better off!

    4. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      What is anti-science about the volumes of thick reports released by the NIPCC? It covers thousands of scientific studies showing that the computer models are inaccurate, that the IPCC cherry picks data to produce their reports, more CO2 is good for vegetation and agriculture, etc. I don't care that the Libertarian leaning Heartland Institute produced it, I think that is a good thing and cann't ignore the NIPCC reports.

    5. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by Charliemopps · · Score: 2

      I'm sorry, but your assessment of their position is wrong.
      They hate liberals, and feel that liberals lie to them. So they are assuming they are lieing in regards to climate change.
      Unfortunately They're right, the left is so wound up about the topic they are spewing lies and misinformation regularly.
      Al Gore made that awful movie. It was probably the single biggest determent to the issue of climate change that's ever happened. It hyper polarized the issue, put the biggest leftest in the country at the head of it almost immediately and pretty much guaranteed that nothing would be done for well over a decade.

      All of this makes it very easy for conservatives to lie to them as well. Oh look, Al Gore lied about X... The entire climate change thing is therefor a lie. It's a logical fallacy but it makes intuitive sense. We need to figure out a way to turn this on its head and turn it into something conservatives can get behind as some sort of anti-liberal thing. I'm not sure how to do that yet but I think hard about it every day.

    6. Re: Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by sumdumass · · Score: 1

      Its not a binary answer as you suggest. Action can happen while even operating on inaction and there are litterally endless possabilities on action.

      So is not caring and dealing with problems as they happen an action or inaction?

    7. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by Jason+Levine · · Score: 1

      Why not both work to prevent (or if we can't prevent, at least reduce) Climate Change as well as work to adapt to it? Cover both our bases. I can understand if you take issue with specific means of preventing Climate Change because you think method X is better than method Y, but saying we won't take any preventative measures at all and instead just deal with it when it comes is short-sighted. If you own a home, should you allow the foundation to crumble, refuse to patch it, and just decide to deal with it when the house finally begins collapsing?

      --
      My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
    8. Re: Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by thaylin · · Score: 1

      Governments dont just think about what YOU will do, they have to think about what the entire populace will do.

      --
      When you cant win, ad hominem.
    9. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 2

      We will. That has happened repeatedly in the past. It is no more logical for us to worry about humanity in 100 years than it would have been for people in 1900 to worry about us today.

      Think of how much has been invented -- yet they would have been concerned about horse poop buildup and poop dust all over everything. 'Let's limit use of horses!" slowing the economy and leaving us with, say, 1980 level tech, "helping" absolutely no one.

      So, to people 100 years from now. What did we do? Keep a powerful economy so you can have flying cars and autodocs, or weaken and hobble is so you don't?

      We are the people in 1900 looking to hobble ourselves to "help" those way off in the future...of 2014.

      Thanks for the "help".

      --
      (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
    10. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by Simon+Brooke · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Ain't going to happen, sadly. As the temperate zone moves closer to the world's poles, and the regions we're currently growing cereal crops on become progressively more arid, there is simply less area of land (square miles or kilometres or however you want to measure it) on which crops can be grown - and that's ignoring the costs of clearing and draining that land, and all the effects of ecocide.

      At the same time as this is happening, of course, all our critical infrastructure will become unusable unless we make huge new investments in flood walls. For example, I work for a major international bank, which, obviously, has its critical data infrastructure replicated in seven cities across the globe. Only one problem: in six of those seven cities, our data centres are within ten metres of current sea level. Most major financial centres are old port cities, and all old port cities are on the coast. So over the next fifty years we have to either all relocate our trading infrastructure, or else abandon it. What I expect will happen is that we'll delay and dawdle until it's too late, and then our whole civilisation will collapse under the combined pressures of hunger, refugees, and rising water levels.

      We're already past the point where there's any hope of the planet being able to support even half its current population in 100 years time. The real policy question is how we now radically reduce the population without war, pestilence, famine and death.

      --
      I'm old enough to remember when discussions on Slashdot were well informed.
    11. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by NatasRevol · · Score: 1

      I think that's what most people are trying to do.

      But the climate deniers are very squeaky wheels. Just like most things, their bullshit gets trumpeted as fact by some, thus holding up the discussions.

      --
      There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
    12. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by bunratty · · Score: 1

      the left is so wound up about the topic they are spewing lies and misinformation regularly

      Could you give some examples of misinformation that is regularly spewed?

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    13. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by BergZ · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Creationists blame Christopher Hitchens for "polarizing the Evolution debate"... and I do not accept their argument.
      The Creationists are wrong about that because:
      (1) Hitchens (like Gore) is not a scientist. You can not draw any conclusions about the validity of a scientific theory on the basis of the statements of non-scientists.
      (2) It doesn't matter how Hitchens said what he said. We are all responsible for deciding what we believe. Responsible people ignore the polarization and examine the arguments logically. Idiots blame their dismissal of science on "the other guy" for not being nice.

      If I wouldn't accept the "that guy polarized the debate" argument from Creationists; why would I accept it from you?

      --
      Warning: This sig is not thread safe. For more information see Slashdot's sig policy.
    14. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by stiggle · · Score: 1

      Just because everyone thinks it is right doesn't mean that its correct.
      Scientific consensus once said that the world was flat, that the sun orbited the earth. It was once the consensus that an atom was like a plum pudding (JJ Thompsons model).

    15. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by sycodon · · Score: 1

      Counted the number of hurricanes lately?

      How about tornadoes?

      Is New York Underwater yet?

      Britain will never see snow again.

      Etc.

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    16. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by bunratty · · Score: 1

      I'll ask again politely. Could you give some examples of misinformation that is regularly spewed? If you don't have any, just don't bother replying.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    17. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by Nemyst · · Score: 1

      That's a load of horseshit that only a quick perusal would let you figure out. There was no "scientific consensus" that the Earth was flat; back in Ancient Greece it was already well known that the Earth was a globe and its radius was estimated with remarkable accuracy. That's before the term "science" was even coined, those were natural philosophers. The idea that the Sun orbited the Earth was much more religious than it was scientific; people went to great lengths to make up incredibly complex systems so that they could match their religious sensibilities that the Earth was the center of the universe. Science as it is now known has only really existed since the dawn of the Scientific Method, which appeared much later than either of those discoveries.

      As for the plum pudding model, it was, key word, a model. Of course people knew it wasn't actually anywhere near a plum pudding! It was just the best representation they could give at the time and which fit the data they had at the time. The important element to note is that all subsequent models were more and more precise, but none invalidated previous data and conclusions. They refined the model, they allowed us to make more predictions and to be more accurate, but they didn't outright rebuke previous results.

    18. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by Sockatume · · Score: 1

      "We'll discredit all information quantifying the problem" doesn't strike me as a great way to engineer your way out of the problem either, for that matter.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    19. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by sycodon · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Just off the first page of a Google search.

      Hurricanes will increase in number and intensity.

      Tornadoes will increase in number and intensity.

      New York will be under water.

        Britain will never see snow again.

      Record low Hurricanes, Tornadoes, New York still hasn't flooded, and Britain just had record snowfall this last winter.

      --
      When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    20. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by Sockatume · · Score: 2

      So by "the left" you meant "tabloid newspapers"?

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    21. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by Sockatume · · Score: 1

      The "plum pudding" model was one of several competing models at the time. That's why it has a contemporaneous name, because there were alternatives.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    22. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by bunratty · · Score: 2

      Those are predictions about the future, as noted by the future tense form "will X". Think about what you would need to do so show those statements are misinformation. You don't have a crystal ball, do you? Even if you do are could conclusively show the predictions are inaccurate, that still doesn't demonstrate willful dissent of misinformation, just someone making an incorrect prediction.

      Again, could you give some misinformation that is regularly spewed by the left about climate change?

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    23. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by DigiShaman · · Score: 1

      The real policy question is how we now radically reduce the population without war, pestilence, famine and death.

      You DON'T!!!

      Trying to force AGW change by stymying the global economy is a sure way of ending WW3 (which is happening now) with nuclear fallout. So when a nuclear winter comes about, you might be wishing we had more CO2 thrown in to offset the bitter man-made cold. God forbid it happen, it would still be pretty fucking ironic; being a self-fulfilling prophecy and all. But hey, at least the population is now reduced. Right? Right??!

      --
      Life is not for the lazy.
    24. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by bunratty · · Score: 2

      No, I'm not being thick. I was expecting actual misinformation such as "volcanoes produce more carbon dioxide than fossil fuels", "Antarctic ice is not melting", "the planet's temperature is not increasing", "the warming is due to increased solar output" and so on. If you ask me, the misinformation is coming from the other side, you know, the one that doesn't have actual evidence on their side so they need to fabricate it.

      As for your "short period of time" claim, I did not see a date in the first article you posted, and it also provides no time frame for when the prediction holds. How you could consider that to be a prediction already proved incorrect, much less misinformation, is beyond me.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    25. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      ...and neither article says anything about increasing numbe of hurricanes or tornados, so...i guess take his summaries with a large grain of salt.

    26. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by bunratty · · Score: 1

      The whole point of my post was to see all of this horrible misinformation in favor of AGW being spread regularly, and it has uncovered... nothing. I just don't know what the deniers are even ranting about these days. Their arguments are just gibberish.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    27. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by gtall · · Score: 1

      ...unless we manage to tip the Earth into a much higher temp and a positive feedback loop where we all burn in Hell of our own creation. Sometimes there's just no engineering your way out of a problem.

    28. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by nephilimsd · · Score: 1

      I don't see deniers as being particularly squeaky, but rather as appealing to the outcome that most people want anyway: Change nothing about the current policy, the prices that we pay, or the convenience of life, and if possible, maybe think about doing something about this whole climate thing. But the climate is a very distant concern, after cost and convenience. If we can't find a cheap, convenient solution now, let's just wait until one shows up. In the mean time, full steam ahead!

    29. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

      The rise in temperature been flat for the last decade. Every single prediction made by anthropogenic global warming I have heard so far has failed. It is junk science.

      It is convenient to make a theory that neither explains anything nor can be proven until after you die and your grant money had been already spent.

    30. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

      So how arid was planet Earth during the Jurassic when the CO2 levels were higher? I will give you a hint. It was LESS arid than it is today.

    31. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by david_thornley · · Score: 2

      Scientific consensus was never that the world was flat. They laughed at Columbus because he was counting on the planet being smaller than any educated person knew it was.

      For the rest, you're talking about theories about observations, not the observations. Global warming has been observed in many ways. I don't think the vast majority of scientists have ever been that wrong about observed fact, although obviously they've often been at least somewhat wrong on the theory.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    32. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by bunratty · · Score: 1

      You're assuming that reducing carbon dioxide emissions will necessarily "hobble the economy". I've never seen a coherent explanation of why that would be the case. Could you explain?

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    33. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by bunratty · · Score: 2

      What predictions would those be? I've seen the temperature rise, the sea levels rise, and ice in the Arctic, the Antarctic, and Greenland melt. Those were all predicted before they occurred.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    34. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by trawg · · Score: 1

      Didn't New York flood last year? http://www.nytimes.com/newsgra...

    35. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by tbannist · · Score: 1

      New York still hasn't flooded

      Are you sure about that? I mean sure not reading the article is pretty common on Slashdot but not reading your own sources is pretty lame. The article you linked says that New York will experience more flooding under storm conditions. The top category of flooding in my linked article for the flooding damager during Hurricane Sandy in New York City is 6-18 feet of water, because the top recorded flooding level was a little over 17 feet of water. There seems to be more than a few buildings in that top category. And the article says the average flooding level in New York city will rise by an estimated 4 feet of water by 2032 (20 years after the article was published). I don't see how that can be considered good evidence for your claims no matter how I look at the issue.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    36. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by Rumeal · · Score: 1

      Temperature rise flat? Unless you are cherry-picking your intervals, in which case you aren't looking at the long-term trends, I don't see it: http://www.ipcc.ch/publication... http://www.epa.gov/climatechan... http://earthobservatory.nasa.g... http://www.skepticalscience.co... ...

    37. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by Xyrus · · Score: 1

      None of your links are to peer reviewed research articles. Three of your statements refer to changes in trends BY THE END OF THIS CENTURY. Your fourth statement amount Britain never seeing snow again is just made up BS. That has never been stated in any research paper on climate.

      --
      ~X~
    38. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by owski · · Score: 1

      I think you missed his point. There has been much misinformation spread by activists supporting immediate action. "Spread" doesn't mean "in a peer reviewed research article" it means used as an argument in favor of certain actions or policies. This is true not only on all sides of the climate change debate, but pretty much whenever there's a political hot potato.

      By limiting the meaning of "spreading misinformation" to only what you consider a true Scotsman of a scientific paper is completely missing why spreading misinformation is a problem.

    39. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

      There can be no "scientific consensus" in a society that hasn't discovered the scientific method. In those times, at best, what you had was the consensus of the "wise people".

      So out of all the things you've listed, the "plum pudding" atomic model is the only one that would even qualify. But there was no consensus that it was like that. At best, it was accepted as the most reasonable model given all the evidence at the time (but, really, physicists had wildly different notions of atoms back then, and none of them were solid theories). It only took five years for more evidence to appear that proved the model was not viable.

    40. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by eriqk · · Score: 1

      The "consensus" that denied Wegener? The "consensus" that mocked Semmelweiss ?

      the consensus that accepted continental drift and antiseptic practice after there was enough evidence to support it.

    41. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by stephanruby · · Score: 1

      "We'll invent something to fix this when the time comes" is not a sound policy, or a policy at all. It's wishful thinking. What if we don't?

      Who said we had to invent something new? The rich will build dikes and levees and the poor will move.

    42. Re:Modern Day Anti-Evolutionists by Demena · · Score: 1

      Not very. But ecologies had time to adjust and build. This rise is very fast. Slightly different starting conditions can lead to greatly differing outcomes.

  7. It *isn't* that well understood by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Current CO2 concentration is 380 ppm or so. On a geologic scale, that's EXTREMELY low - CO2 levels over the past 600 million years or so probably averaged about 1500 to 2000 ppm, with peaks up to 5000 or even 7000 ppm:

    CO2 over the past 600 million years.

    Your post paints an overly simplistic view.

    1. Re:It *isn't* that well understood by NatasRevol · · Score: 1

      Let me know what the CO2 levels are during the species Homo span.

      What's that? A record high?

      Yeah, everyone knows the earth will go on spinning. It's us we're worrying about, you fucking moron.

      --
      There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
    2. Re:It *isn't* that well understood by FirstOne · · Score: 3, Informative

      "Current CO2 concentration is 380 ppm or so."

      You're a bit out of date(2010), I see. Atmospheric CO2 has been crossing the 400ppm mark lately, (avr 399 ppm)

      Over the last year(june2013-june2014) it climbed by 2.56ppm, and that rate of increase appears to be accelerating, thus humanity is going to be in deep doo-doo real soon if we don't stop burning fossil fuels.

      The other facts you seam to be missing, Our star(SOL) was somewhat dimmer in the past, thus requiring much higher CO2 levels to keep the earth from freezing over. And that humanity is totally dependent on the current climate patterns..

    3. Re:It *isn't* that well understood by bunratty · · Score: 1

      Nothing different or special about us? Humans and their livestock and pets make up 98% of the terrestrial vertebrate biomass. There are hundreds of millions of people and trillions of dollars in infrastructure just a meter or two above sea level. Our civilization will be massively disrupted if sea levels rise by just a meter and we experience bad droughts. Sure, the planet will survive, but we're fucked!

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    4. Re:It *isn't* that well understood by FirstOne · · Score: 1

      Correction 380ppm was crossed in 2005-2006 time frame.

    5. Re:It *isn't* that well understood by dryeo · · Score: 2

      A couple of points. What was the pressure of the atmosphere at sea level during those times? We know the Sun put out less energy in the past so the Earth previously needed more greenhouse gases to be inhabitable. Eventually (perhaps a billion years) the Earth will get too hot even with zero CO2.
      The other point is that for 80% of the Earths history it has been in hot house conditions with tropical temps even at the poles. Ice house conditions (defined as having polar ice caps) have been rare. Thing is we and our ecosystem have evolved for ice-house conditions and the fossil record shows that when the Earth flips from ice-house to hot-house or the other way, there is usually an extinction event.
      While human kind may survive, civilization probably wouldn't and if it dies in war, well we have a lot of nukes which could make for a spectacular death to civilization.

      --
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
    6. Re:It *isn't* that well understood by rochrist · · Score: 1

      Heh. 'so-called scientists'. Good one. You should probably join the rolling coal movement.

    7. Re:It *isn't* that well understood by bunratty · · Score: 1

      No, the point of reducing carbon dioxide emissions is absolutely not to halt all climate change. We couldn't do such a thing if we tried! The problem is the rate of change of climate. We want to reduce our effect on the climate so it isn't changing as rapidly. If it changes more slowly, we can adapt to the change much more easily.

      --
      What a fool believes, he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.
    8. Re:It *isn't* that well understood by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

      There is a painting in Venice of a staircase to the canals made a couple of centuries back. The staircase is totally submerged now. The sea level has been rising for a long time. It is not a new phenomenon. What a lot of people disagree on is a) how much of it is actually caused by human activities. b) is it a problem or not.

      AGW theory is bullshit because it cannot make long term predictions of climate. It mispredicted the temperature for the entire last decade for example. The model is flawed at best and probably worthless.

    9. Re:It *isn't* that well understood by cheesybagel · · Score: 2

      Yes the CO2 levels increased. Yet the global average temperature did not rise as predicted by the AGW model.

      http://www.forbes.com/sites/la...
      http://www.nature.com/news/cli...

    10. Re:It *isn't* that well understood by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

      Save the planet, kill yourself?

      Fine, but you start.

    11. Re:It *isn't* that well understood by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 2

      The stairwell in Venice is submerged because Venice itself is sinking, not because sea levels rose several feet since it was built.

    12. Re:It *isn't* that well understood by Eunuchswear · · Score: 1

      Current CO2 concentration is 380 ppm or so.

      For values of 380 that are larger than 390.

      --
      Watch this Heartland Institute video
  8. If UVA and Mann have nothing to hide by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Why not just release the emails and shut this group up? It seems like they are going to great lengths to hide something.

    1. Re:If UVA and Mann have nothing to hide by RotateLeftByte · · Score: 3, Funny

      Like you then, Mr/Mrs/Miss/Ms Anonymous coward?

      What have you got to hide then?
      do you like to wear women's clothing and chop down trees? (Monty Python link deliberate)

      From the
      Can we see those incriminating emails that might be about something totally irrelevant but we need to see them anyway...
      Department.

      --
      I'd rather be riding my '63 Triumph T120.
    2. Re: If UVA and Mann have nothing to hide by apc512599 · · Score: 1

      "Extraordinary allegations require extraordinary evidence." - Lance Armstrong.

    3. Re:If UVA and Mann have nothing to hide by sideslash · · Score: 1

      The FOIA doesn't apply to AC's on Slashdot. Just in case you were unaware.

    4. Re:If UVA and Mann have nothing to hide by ed.han · · Score: 1

      so the wrong point: if you have nothing to hide why not just give everyone access to your account?

      ed

    5. Re:If UVA and Mann have nothing to hide by Jason+Levine · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Beyond the "you shouldn't be forced to reveal private matters or be assumed guilty?" Then how about because nothing shuts up groups like this. Say he releases his e-mails and there is nothing incriminating in there. They will find one passage which, if taken out of context, will "prove" their point. Then they'll tout this out-of-content statement all over the place. Sure, some people will see the truth, but many more will believe the lie instead.

      To put it another way, I suspect you of committing illegal acts. Send me all of your e-mail correspondence for the last 10 years. I'll pour through that and see if anything looks wrong. If you typed "I hope we don't get caught" in the context of throwing someone a surprise birthday party and sneaking the gifts past them, I'll take that line and use it to show how you're really a shady criminal conspiring to avoid capture for your crimes. I await you sending me all of your e-mails so I can use them against you in any way I see fit.

      --
      My sci-fi novel, Ghost Thief, is now available from Amazon.com.
    6. Re:If UVA and Mann have nothing to hide by Bob+the+Super+Hamste · · Score: 1
      Think I have heard similar things before:

      Did Glenn Beck Rape And Murder A Young Girl In 1990?
      I mean he hasn't denied these accusations and seems to be going to great length to hide something

      --
      Time to offend someone
    7. Re:If UVA and Mann have nothing to hide by ChipMonk · · Score: 1

      If Mann and UVA got any public monies for the research in question, then isn't it the law that his emails relating to the research be publicly accessible?

    8. Re:If UVA and Mann have nothing to hide by Reziac · · Score: 1

      That was exactly my thought. If his work is used to influence public policy, then everything related to his work should be public, including any relevant emails.

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
  9. Careful what you wish for by sideslash · · Score: 4, Insightful

    As far as I can tell, this lawsuit determined that the Freedom of Information Act can't be used to get access to some official email correspondence paid for by public funds. Even if you are really gung-ho on AGW, that's not a result to automatically crow about.

    Michael Mann is not my favorite scientist, as he has a pattern of cargo cultist behavior that has annoyed his peers (provoking words like "vomit" and "crock of s**t"). The lawsuit to watch is the one where Mann is suing the National Review (a conservative magazine) and Mark Steyn, a conservative satirist and commentator. Whether or not his overall beliefs about AGW are justified, Professor Mann does have skeletons in his closet, and if the court does its job properly, he will be smacked down hard.

    1. Re:Careful what you wish for by thaylin · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I like how you condemned him without evidence of those "skeletons". If the court does its job properly they will weigh the evidence and not just smack him down because you want them to.

      --
      When you cant win, ad hominem.
    2. Re:Careful what you wish for by Sockatume · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The FOI doesn't allow you to sue someone for access to their records soley on the pretext that you're going to trawl for unspecified and potentially nonexistent wrongdoing.

      I don't think you know what a cargo cult (or by extension, "cargo cult science") is.

      It's not the court's purpose to air dirty laundry of people you don't like soley because there is dirty laundry to be aired.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    3. Re:Careful what you wish for by T.E.D. · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Michael Mann is not my favorite scientist, as he has a pattern of ...

      Do you seriously have favorite scientists? Quick: Who's your favorite and least favorite molecular biologists? How about Phytopathologists? Do they have groupies and haters too?

    4. Re:Careful what you wish for by sideslash · · Score: 1

      It's just a figure of speech, but that would be really funny.

    5. Re:Careful what you wish for by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

      Which would be bogus if this was Steve Jobs discussing in an apple.com e-mail with the head of Google of how he shouldn't try to 'poach' employees from Apple. But I digress.

  10. No Emails? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Did Michael Mann's PC crash, and lose them too?

    1. Re:No Emails? by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

      No the backup tapes for the university e-mail system were erased to save money.

  11. Reciprocal discovery will make the emails public by schwit1 · · Score: 1, Informative

    In Mann vs Steyn the NR will be able to troll through all of Mann's emails and data.

    Mann is in favor of his proceeding with discovery against Steyn - "The fact that Mr. Steyn has not appealed the denial of the motions to dismiss counsels further against a discovery stay. Mr. Steyn, like Dr. Mann, has made clear his desire to have this Court resolve this lawsuit and to move forward with discovery immediately. As such, there is no reason for this Court to delay discovery further."

    On the other hand, Mann is totally opposed to Steyn's proceeding with discovery against him - "While Dr. Mann agrees with Mr. Steyn that discovery should move forward on Dr. Mann's claims, discovery cannot move forward on Mr. Steyn's counterclaims."

  12. Citation needed please by aepervius · · Score: 3, Interesting

    "the same mistake the anti-eugenics movement made in 1925 with the Scopes Monkey Trial [wikipedia.org], which fought the teaching of evolution in schools"

    All the history of the Butler act I ever read mention they simply feared teaching of evolution would weaken faith, and that they refused our descendance from great apes, as it would shows us as descending from lower beings like animals. At no point the proponent of Butler's act mentioned eugenism, that sound like a modern rewriting of the history. In fact the prominent web sites which promote this thesis are : answeringenesis and creation.com. Fancy that.

    --
    C. Sagan : A demon haunted world:
    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0345409469/
    visit randi.org
  13. Re: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    The 97% count was always shifty and suspect, and is used improperly to mislead people that "science" agrees we have a catastrophe. The actual agreement includes most skeptics, that CO2 is a GHG, we are making a lot of it, some effect is expected. How much effect is the real debate.

  14. Re:Reciprocal discovery will make the emails publi by Sockatume · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I'm not sure what grounds there are for reciprocal discovery in this instance. A libel suit has never been an opportunity for the defendant to play detective and attempt to prove their accusations.

    --
    No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
  15. Re:Leftists love SLAPP suits! by Sockatume · · Score: 1

    Please elaborate.

    --
    No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
  16. Re: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    What on earth are you talking about? If you could cast credible doubt on AGW you'd not only have industry throwing money at you, but once you'd overturned the current consensus in climate science you'd have every major university fighting to get hold of the person who revolutionised the field.

  17. Re: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    That would be because the AGW scientists don't have real data to back themselves up. If they did, they would be able to publish.

  18. Inconvenient by Tenebrousedge · · Score: 2

    Your post paints an overly simplistic view.

    No, it does not. It is not a view, it is fact. When the Earth's atmosphere has a higher partial pressure of CO2 it retains more heat. That is the essential point under consideration, and the exact value of the partial pressure is irrelevant and was not mentioned. We're not talking about the political issues, or the history of the planet, only cold hard measurable facts about [a] the relationship between irradiance and re-radiation, and [b] the absorption spectrum of CO2.

    However, on the separate subject you have noted, while we are indeed two orders of magnitude away from the highest CO2 levels, and the highest rates of emission, the previous atmospheric changes happened over the course of millions of years and are usually associated with mass extinctions. We've already been doing pretty well on the mass extinction front; this may not be a good time to rock the boat.

    If, as I have been told, conservatives are against change, can we maybe try to not pollute every square inch of the planet? I'm from rural Alaska, and it's getting a bit melty up there. It's not a place that I really enjoy living, but the glaciers were fairly pretty, and have you seen what permafrost does when it melts? Clearly this isn't a problem where you live, but please let's not pretend that it isn't an issue elsewhere. Pollution of any sort is ugly.

    --
    Those who advocate genocide deserve every protection afforded by law, and none afforded by common human decency.
  19. This is still not over by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    The fact is, that ATI has changed their name and is doing everything possible to avoid being responsible or having to pay.
    Interestingly, these ppl are the same way about climate as they are about personal responsibility.

    I wonder if we can sue, and claim that the veil was broken and go after these ppl personally, and have them thrown in jail for a LONG time.
    That would help slow down, or stop frivolous lawsuits.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  20. The sad end by ThatsNotPudding · · Score: 1

    The sad end will be this coven of trolls claiming it was all based on their 'religious beliefs' and our shit-heel 'supreme' court will given them a free pass. At the current increasing decent into madness, they might even reverse the costs back on Mann.

  21. Re:Thus ends "Climategate." Hopefully. by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

    Insecticides never worked properly again since that.

  22. Re:Secrecy = win for alarmists? by cheesybagel · · Score: 1

    I do not know about you but I do not do private conversations using my university e-mail address.

  23. Re: by GiordyS · · Score: 1

    Wow. I just noticed your tagline. I wrote my first blog article last night and it included this line: "I think the majority are average thinkers by definition, and crowds tend to be stupider than individuals."

  24. Re: by Rei · · Score: 4, Informative

    AEI, for one. $10k for any paper that attacks the IPCC reports. There's other public offers out there, too. And I'm sure they're outnumbered 100 times over by not-so-public ones.

    --
    Fox: "I think we should call it... your grave!" Cast: "Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!"
  25. Re: by Rei · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Go right ahead and point me to where a decline in Antarctic ice was a forecast of AGW.

    You do know that - below freezing - there's an inverse correlation between temperature and snowfall, don't you? And I really hope you know that it's very rare that temperatures rise above freezing in the vast majority of Antarctica, whether you add a couple degrees to the temperature or not, right? Or did you not know / ever consider that?

    Just because you didn't realize something that should have been really bloody obvious to you doesn't mean it was a scientific prediction by your straw-man scientists.

    --
    Fox: "I think we should call it... your grave!" Cast: "Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!"
  26. Jane is Lonny Eachus by khayman80 · · Score: 1, Flamebait

    In other words, you're a birther who denies being a birther, just like you're a climate contrarian who denies being a climate contrarian. Maybe you see liars everywhere because you're actually a pathological liar named Lonny Eachus who's dishonestly posing as a woman on the internet.

    Maybe this blatant psychological projection also explains why Jane/Lonny has been baselessly and libelously accusing me and my colleagues of fraudulent bullshit lies.

    1. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      In other words, you're a birther who denies being a birther, just like you're a climate contrarian who denies being a climate contrarian. Maybe you see liars everywhere because you're actually a pathological liar named Lonny Eachus who's dishonestly posing as a woman on the internet.

      There you go. If this doesn't meet the definition of libel, I don't know what does.

      You know that statement to be false, or at the very least have very good reason to believe it to be false. And my own words here on Slashdot, several times and in several places, show it to be. Yet you present it to the public as truth anyway.

      What does that make YOU?

    2. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      The statement is false because I explained here on Slashdot not just once but several times that I am not a "birther", and don't pretend to know where Obama was born. My arguments have been about a document from the White House that is publicly available. [Jane Q. Public]

      Yes, that's what birthers like Jane/Lonny Eachus and Lord Monckton do, right before they deny being birthers.

      I thought you were saying it was false that Jane is Lonny Eachus. Will you say that now? Just state clearly, on your honor and for the record, that you aren't a man named Lonny Eachus. Otherwise...

      I will ask you again where comments like yours come from. Try as you might, you have not managed to show that I even lied. Where are these statements you accuse me of? [Jane Q. Public]

      Again, we've already been over this. You're a man named Lonny Eachus who's dishonestly posing as a woman on the internet.

      The mental contortions you went through to deny that you're posing as a woman were simply awe-inspiring. You implied that you only objected to being called a dude because you're not excessively concerned with clothes, grooming and manners. That doesn't explain why you told hairyfeet to check your name, because "Jane Q. Public" has nothing to do with that, but it is a woman's name. It also doesn't explain why you told Genda to read your name again.

      You've also made it clear that you're either a woman or a "flamer". You evaded this point by arguing with voices in your head and suggesting that "flamers" aren't exclusively guys.

      "Don't misunderstand. I'm no homophobe. But I can't stand flamers. If he wants to be that way, he can have surgery." [Lonny Eachus, 2010-07-16]

      Like Jane, Lonny can't stand "flamers" and also seems to imply that they're exclusively guys. Otherwise, what kind of surgery did Lonny mean?

      Since men can't be lesbians, only a man posing as a woman would say he's not a lesbian which explains Jane's fantasies about hot guys willing to eat him for lunch.

      You've claimed that most people who bothered to look have referred to you as a gal, and you have news for guys about how crude women are in the locker room. But since you're a man, you could only get first-hand information by spying in the women's locker room. Is that what you did?

      If you're not posing as a woman, why do you refer to yourself using "she" and "her"? You've even pretended that I called you "she" when I didn't.

      That's why, despite your attempts at false equivalence, my pseudonyms aren't dishonest because I haven't been posing as a woman, desp

    3. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      I thought you were saying it was false that Jane is Lonny Eachus. Will you say that now? Just state clearly, on your honor and for the record, that you aren't a man named Lonny Eachus. Otherwise...

      Why would you think that? I didn't give you any reason to think that was what I was saying. But then, we already know you have a tendency to claim people said things they didn't actually say. I've demonstrated it many times.

      Will you say that now? Just state clearly, on your honor and for the record, that you aren't a man named Lonny Eachus. Otherwise...

      Why would I do that? Because you are pestering me about my identity (nobody else is)? Is that justification? I don't think so.

      I use the name I use for reasons of my own. Those reasons are none of your damned business. I don't owe you anything.

      Further, the use of pseudonyms are a time-honored tradition, and you have been quite deliberately stepping on my ability to try to function normally in this SOCIAL forum, for entirely personal reasons of your own. That is not reasonable behavior.

      "Don't misunderstand. I'm no homophobe. But I can't stand flamers. If he wants to be that way, he can have surgery." [Lonny Eachus, 2010-07-16]

      And I already explained it to you more than once now that you assigned a meaning of your own to those words that didn't actually exist when I wrote them. That's your problem (and it DOES seem to be a problem), but your failure to understand is not my problem, except to the extent you have been making it my problem. YOUR claim about those words in fact turned out to be a "sexist stereotype"... exactly the thing you accused me of.

      You just don't seem to get it, and I am pretty goddamned tired of you trying to make that my problem.

      And again you make it clear that your issue with me is personal, and apparently based on some kind of slight that you have wholly imagined, or perhaps invented. Yet again, that is not my problem, except to the extent that you have been making it a problem. And I repeat: it is a genuine cause of concern for me that you don't see that. In my opinion, your behavior has been that of a dangerously obsessed person.

    4. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus by Eunuchswear · · Score: 1

      "Don't misunderstand. I'm no homophobe. But I can't stand flamers. If he wants to be that way, he can have surgery." [Lonny Eachus, 2010-07-16]

      And I already explained it to you more than once now that you assigned a meaning of your own to those words that didn't actually exist when I wrote them.

      Sorry? Who wrote what?

      --
      Watch this Heartland Institute video
  27. Re:Doubt is good by pslytely+psycho · · Score: 1

    Yes, credible doubt is a good thing. It means the models are wrong, which in turn suggests our understanding of the problem is incomplete.

    Troll mod from someone who disagrees is definitely an undeserved mod.

    The problem as I see it, is it isn't even about the science anymore. It has become too politicized. Of course there is climate change, change is after all the only constant. Do we contribute? If so, how much? Likely (IMHO) only a few percentage points. (I do believe we are accelerating an otherwise natural process...I just don't think it is as much as claimed because of the reasons you stated)
    The models are wrong. Our understanding is incomplete. Yet everyone (on both sides) runs around spouting their 'conclusive proof' while cherry picking the data.

    Therefore, I have the upmost respect for someone who can cast credible doubt without standing firmly on one side or the other, as that tells me that person is looking at both sides. Unfortunately those in the middle are largely ignored by the loud, uninformed and politically motivated on both sides.

      Business would be perfectly happy returning to 1960's Los Angeles. We used to joke 'what happens when the smog lifts over Los Angeles? UCLA! (I lived there for a time in the 60's....Ugh!)
    Some regulation is good, too much is an economy killer. No regulation is just as bad (unless your fond of yellow air). But everyone wants it all one way or the other. No compromise, no listening to dissenting opinion, no discussion.
    AGW has become a disease. It has become a symbol of political divisiveness.
    It seems to me it's not a fight over actual AGW, it's a fight over regulation. AGW is just the boogeyman to push political interests both ways, much like other non issues like gay marriage.
    The truth is We Don't Know.
    Protect my air, water, and food. Don't obstruct growth with needless feel good legislation that accomplishes nothing.

    So, how to we take the emotion out of this and have a level intelligent discussion when the ranks of both sides are filled with zealots?

    (braces for karma hit....)

    --
    Donald Trump, on a crusade to make Nixon look respectable
  28. Re:Reciprocal discovery will make the emails publi by Benmachine · · Score: 1

    I'm not sure what grounds there are for reciprocal discovery in this instance. A libel suit has never been an opportunity for the defendant to play detective and attempt to prove their accusations.

    I don't think you understand how this works. Discovery in civil litigation, by its very nature, is reciprocal. Barring one party from engaging in discovery on the other would require some absolutely bizarre, rare, and likely improper order absent an evidence/issue/terminating sanction against a party for engaging in repeated and egregious discovery abuse.

    The second comment regarding a libel suit is also wrong. Truth is an absolute defense to a claim of defamation, and is routinely asserted by defendants in such cases. Therefore, discovery that would tend to establish the truth of the statements made by the accused defendant is absolutely relevant. It is absolutely the time for the defendant to "play detective" to prove the veracity of their comments.

    I am a lawyer, but this does not mean we now have an attorney-client relationship, this is not legal advice, so on, so forth.

  29. Just another observation by golodh · · Score: 5, Insightful
    There is no legitimate reason to ask for researchers' emails. Such emails are only useful when you're trying to make things _personal_ instead of businesslike.

    You need people's emails when you're digging for something (anything really) you can use to discredit someone personally (apart from any scientific merit). Besides which, some of those emails are personal.

    The Virginia court ruled that filing a lawsuit just to get those emails constitutes harassment, which in turn is a frivolous use of the court's time. A sensible conclusion in my opinion.

    And yes, there do seem to be consequences for filing frivolous lawsuits.

    1. Re:Just another observation by evilrobert · · Score: 1

      Personal, like Ken Cuccinelli's one man crusade against UVA and this guy, which died like a fish out of water once Ken lost his office and his power?

      Yea. Still glad we voted that assclown out of office.

    2. Re:Just another observation by TheRealLifeboy · · Score: 2

      In the case of Michael Mann, there is, since he is a megalomaniac delusionary fraudster, bent on world domination. We need to every single email he's ever sent or received.

      See this and that.

  30. You're both absolutely, painfully correct. by Vesvvi · · Score: 1

    This is the saddest part about the AGW debate. From my viewpoint, it looks like the pro-AGW people pushed back against criticism overwhelming their "opponents" with data and consensus, and tried to extinguish them via marginalizing them.

    That was absolutely the worst thing that could have been done, for the reasons you note above. On the other hand, if they had embraced and extended, the whole debate could have been extinguished.

    We could be working with alternate energy sources for reasons of dominance in international trade, national security / energy independence, etc. Instead, we've actively been pushed backward by the the pro-AGW agenda, and they deserve some of the blame for that.

  31. Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    My behavior is that of someone who's tired of debunking baseless and libelous accusations of fraudulent bullshit lies from Lonny Eachus, who is dishonestly posing as a woman named Jane Q. Public. This shouldn't be hard for Lonny to understand:

    "@RatbagsDotCom You're a liar (which you have just proven beyond doubt), and present yourself as something you are not. You're a hypocrite." [Lonny Eachus, 2012-02-04]

    1. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      My behavior is that of someone who's tired of debunking baseless and libelous accusations of fraudulent bullshit lies from Lonny Eachus, who is dishonestly posing as a woman named Jane Q. Public. This shouldn't be hard for Lonny to understand:

      So... you are saying your rather blatant, repeated attempts at character assassination are due to your sense of insult to scientific objectivity? Why do you not see the obvious hypocrisy in this?

      You posted your comment as a reply to something that had absolutely nothing to do with any of that, which suggests yet again that reason is a lie. You have been stalking my comments for the singular purpose of insulting me and trying to damage my character. The evidence is overwhelming that you are harassing me for personal reasons, nothing more and nothing less.

      You have been doing this to the extent that it is damaging my ability to participate here on Slashdot. And you are doing it for reasons you have already admitted were personal (and rather strongly implied it yet again just above). In fact your claims to discredit me have repeatedly stepped far beyond the bounds of any pretense at scientific objectivity or integrity, so scientific integrity logically cannot be the true reason. Not that I think you have been very logical anyway.

      The evidence says either the excuse you give above is untrue, or you simply don't understand the motivations of your own actions.

    2. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Again, my motivation is wanting you to stop baselessly and libelously accusing me and my colleagues of fraudulent bullshit lies while pathologically lying about facts as simple as your own gender.

    3. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Again, my motivation is wanting you to stop baselessly and libelously accusing me and my colleagues of fraudulent bullshit lies while pathologically lying about facts as simple as your own gender.

      Not only is this statement false, if you know anything at all about tort law you should reasonably know it to be false. This would be hilarious if it were not such an alarming public accusation. Even when I was wrong (which was not as often as you imply), my comments were far from "baseless", and I have not libeled you or any of your "colleagues".

      Do you even know what libel IS? Evidence strongly suggests not. You think you are mimicking my own behavior but I assure you, there are some very large differences.

      I see no reason to further reply to your ranting. I tire of having had to constantly defend myself against your emotional and irrational tirades.

    4. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Are you denying that you're accusing me and my colleagues of fraudulent bullshit lies (obviously you don't think your accusations are baseless)? Or are you denying that you're pathologically lying about facts as simple as your own gender? Or both?

    5. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Are you denying that you're accusing me and my colleagues of fraudulent bullshit lies

      Show us all where I have accused people of outright lying, where I don't have good reason to believe that it is, in fact, a lie.

      I have certainly disagreed with some things. But where have I accused anyone of specific lies that aren't actually lies?

      I would be interested to know. It isn't wrong to accuse someone of lies, if in fact I have good reason to believe they are lying. That's called "telling the truth".

    6. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Do you deny that you've been accusing me and my colleagues of fraudulent bullshit lies, rather than just "disagreeing"? Obviously you're incapable of recognizing that all your accusations of fraudulent bullshit lies are baseless, but don't you see how that's different than "disagreeing"? Should I really have to link you to your own libelous accusations, Lonny Eachus?

    7. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      I have said what I have to say.

      No more "moving the goalposts". No more straw-man. No more ad-hominem and insults. Either show us some evidence behind your accusations, or go away. The end.

    8. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      ... are you accusing me of "baselessly" accusing scientists of "fraud"? If so, would you care to back that up? So far you're about 0 for 100, so I doubt there is much chance of that. But I am curious where and when you imagine this happened. ... [Jane Q. Public, 2014-06-30]

      ... can you come up with an example of ME, Jane Q. Public, "baselessly" accusing scientists of "fraud", or not? Come on. You don't have an example, do you? ... [Jane Q. Public, 2014-06-30]

      ... you still don't have an example of me "baselessly" claiming scientists had committed "fraud". Or anyone claiming such, for that matter. ... [Jane Q. Public, 2014-06-30]

      ... I am still waiting for an example of me "baselessly" claiming scientists committed "fraud". I don't think you have one of those, either. Which is just more evidence that I have been right, all along. [Jane Q. Public, 2014-06-30]

      ... How fascinating that you still haven't managed to produce a single example of me actually doing this. (Or demonstrated the truth of any of your other claims, for that matter. You're 0 for whatever, now. I've stopped counting.) Is that because you "forgot" where they were? Or is it -- I daresay vastly more likely -- that this is just another "baseless accusation" of the type YOU appear to have been making? ... [Jane Q. Public, 2014-06-30]

      "This "study" specifically searched for "global warming". It's self-selecting, i.e., LYING with statistics. Don't lie. And if the "science" were near as solid as they claim, THEY WOULD NOT HAVE TO lie about it, as they consistently have." [Lonny Eachus, 2014-01-29]

      "... I know about quite a bit of dishonest "science" going on in the "global warming" ranks. Including, just for one example, that bogus "97%" claim made recently. It's such statistical garbage that the guys who put it forward should have any license to practice "science" revoked." [Jane Q. Public, 2014-03-20]

    9. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      "... publicly reported "statistics" that are so distorted one might even be justified in calling them fraudulent, like the bogus "97% consensus" claim." [Jane Q. Public, 2014-03-23]

      "... in fact it is a relatively small, rather incestuous group who try to lie with statistics to "prove" their cause to the populace, by doing things like cherry-picking papers in order to claim a bogus "97% consensus"." [Jane Q. Public, 2014-03-31]

      "... that bullshit "97% consensus" claim made recently. ... the survey purporting to show that "97%" was a BS parody of responsible statistics. ..." [Jane Q. Public, 2014-03-31]

      "News for you Climate Alarmists. Not only is "97% Consensus” proved false, but even "vast majority” is bullshit. I’m tired of the bullshit." [Lonny Eachus, 2014-05-13]

      "... "vast majority” is just another lie. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/20/the... http://joannenova.com.au/2013/07/thats-... Why do they lie? When you do responsible science, you don’t have to lie about it. But the "97% consensus” is actually a BULLSHIT lie." [Lonny Eachus, 2014-05-29]

      "I am not inclined to accept the word of SkepticalScience. Their credibility was rather damaged recently when they attempted to pass off that “97%” nonsense as truth, when it was actually such a heap of statistical garbage that a middle-schooler could refute it. That’s putting it mildly. They have demonstrated that they are not committed to honestly presenting their own statistics, so I am perfectly justified in distrusting their comments about the mathematics of others." [Jane Q. Public, 2014-07-02]

      "... how about the recent "97%" claim by the people at SkepticalScience? It was dirt simple to show that it was nothing but statistical bullshit. Why would an organization representing responsible scientists lie to people? ..." [Jane Q. Public, 2014-07-06]

      "Bogus climate science: "Enron would blush at such fraud." http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/03/01/one..." [Lonny Eachus, 2014-02-28]

      "I'm tempted, but I won't say "CO2 warming" is actually "fraudulent" science, because I don't have proof. There is LOTS of evidence, though." [Lonny Eachus, 2014-03-07]

      "What "climate scientists" say about "deniers" actually describes themselves.
      - driven by politics & money
      - denies genuine science
      Hell, people, they've been CAUGHT lying about it. They're the "deniers"."
      [Lonny Eachus, 2014-03-17]

      "Such consistency almost never happen in real science. So one reasonable explanation would be fraud. Be skeptical!!! pic.twitter.com/EFvXgKCdTH" [Lonny Eachus, 2014-03-18]

      "In case you haven't noticed, the global warming scam is by far the biggest scientific/government fraud ever perpetrated." ["Steve Goddard" retweeted by Lonny Eachus, 2014-02-05]

    10. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Let's be clear about this:

      You have repeatedly and publicly accused me of being a pathological liar, and you have more recently accused me of making libelous statements about "you and your colleagues". In order for that to be true, you would have to show at the very least that I knew, or reasonably should have known, that the things I wrote -- not quotes or things other people wrote -- were untrue.

      You have not done so. I have made mistakes, but I have not lied and do not lie about this.

      Take your false accusations and go away. I mean it. You seem to have a screw loose somewhere and you have been making that a real problem for me. I have no reason to voluntarily put up with your crap. I have responded in self-defense only... and look at how many times you have caused me to do that.

      You have been wasting my valuable time, attempting to besmirch my name, and committing other foul deeds. LEAVE. GO AWAY.

    11. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      The third thing I am going to say about this is:

      And your claim that using a pseudonym constitutes "lying" is just plain ridiculous. I repeat: pseudonyms are a time-honored tradition. You use one yourself.

      The fact that you have repeatedly (and utterly) failed to demonstrate what you have written you are trying to demonstrate, would seem to indicate that your purposes are not actually what you claim them to be.

      I have very strong reason to believe that your entire purpose here is simply to attempt to commit character assassination in a place you KNOW will show on Internet searches and elsewhere. There is a name for that.

    12. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Again, obviously you can't recognize that your accusations are baseless, even though you reasonably should have known that.

      You have repeatedly and publicly accused me of being a pathological liar... [Jane Q. Public]

      You're only a pathological liar if you're really a man named Lonny Eachus posing as a woman on the internet. Just state clearly, on your honor and for the record, that you're not a man named Lonny Eachus.

      ... I -- *I* as in me ... I -- and other people... [Jane Q. Public]

      You're strongly implying that Jane isn't Lonny Eachus, so it shouldn't be that hard to clearly state that you're not a man named Lonny Eachus.

      And your claim that using a pseudonym constitutes "lying" is just plain ridiculous. I repeat: pseudonyms are a time-honored tradition. You use one yourself. [Jane Q. Public]

      Once again, pseudonyms don't constitute lying. But lying about your own gender is lying.

      If you're actually a woman, then you're not lying about your own gender. If you state clearly, on your honor and for the record, that you're not a man named Lonny Eachus, then I'll accept that Jane Q. Public isn't Lonny Eachus.

    13. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Again, obviously you can't recognize that your accusations are baseless, even though you reasonably should have known that.

      This would be funny if it weren't such utter bullshit. We JUST had an exchange about that, and you admitted that my comments weren't "baseless". But now you make the same accusation again. Which is it? What are you trying to claim?

      You're a ... if you're really a man named Lonny Eachus posing as a woman on the internet.

      I am a person using a pseudonym, just as you are. I am no more a liar than you are. From the evidence, in fact, I'd guess I'm a good bit less of one.

      You're strongly implying that Jane isn't Lonny Eachus

      Are you SURE that's what I was implying there? I suggest reading what my words actually say again, and in what context. You seem to have had a lot of trouble interpreting words using their plain meanings, and NOT assuming false meanings that you have made up in your head. I feel I can safely say that, since you have demonstrated it about, oh, maybe 100 times now. As a very rough guess.

      lying about your own gender is lying.

      You haven't been able to demonstrate even one instance of my actually lying. So stuff it up there where the sun doesn't shine, as they say.

      If you're actually a woman, then you're not lying about your own gender. If you state clearly, on your honor and for the record, that you're not a man named Lonny Eachus, then I'll accept that Jane Q. Public isn't Lonny Eachus.

      I have absolutely no motivation to make any such statement. Who I am, or why I chose the pseudonym I did, ARE NONE OF YOUR GODDAMNED BUSINESS. Get that through your head. I don't owe you a goddamned thing. And you don't have any kind of "right" to make my life miserable until I do what you say.

      Now GO AWAY.

    14. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Again, obviously you can't recognize that your accusations are baseless, even though you reasonably should have known that.

      This would be funny if it weren't such utter bullshit. We JUST had an exchange about that, and you admitted that my comments weren't "baseless". But now you make the same accusation again. Which is it? What are you trying to claim? [Jane Q. Public]

      Link to the exchange with that admission, because it sounds like you're talking to imaginary voices again. Yet again, obviously you can't recognize that your accusations are baseless, even though you reasonably should have known that. I've been consistently saying that your accusations of fraudulent bullshit lies are baseless, and that you reasonably should have known that.

      I am a person using a pseudonym, just as you are. I am no more a liar than you are. From the evidence, in fact, I'd guess I'm a good bit less of one. ... You haven't been able to demonstrate even one instance of my actually lying. So stuff it up there where the sun doesn't shine, as they say.

      Again, you're a man named Lonny Eachus dishonestly posing as a woman on the internet. Unlike most of the misinformation you spew, this point is so simple and non-technical that your Sauron-class Morton's demon isn't an excuse.

      The conclusion that Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar raises a disturbing question. I've previously defended contrarians like Jane/Lonny against suggestions that they're knowingly spreading misinformation:

      "... You’ve previously asserted that contrarians know more than they let on, but I’ll defend Hanlon’s razor and the information deficit model to the dumb, naive, non-psychologist death. I refuse to believe that anyone who truly groks the Great Dying and the rate limits on adaptation via migration or evolution could keep spreading civilization-paralyzing misinformation. I suspect that Morton's demon is far stronger than most people realize. For example, even Morton himself was later consumed by this demon in such a depressing way that I won’t link it. ...

      ... I refuse to believe that some know more than they let on. Considering the stakes involved, that hypothetical informed contrarian (who I don’t believe exists) would have betrayed humanity. Even arsonists usually have a personal escape route, but knowingly spreading civilization-paralyzing misinformation has no plausible escape route. From my moral and pragmatic perspectives, the information deficit model seems to be correct.

      Even as their numbers dwindle, I’ll keep defending the morality of contrarians. There’s no shame in being insufficiently informed about a complex scientific topic, as long as one eventually stops spreading misinformation that threatens the future of our civilization.

      There are more enjoyable hobbies. Hobbies that don’t stain one’s legacy. Video games, reading, scuba diving, etc."

      Jane, I've been defending people like you for years, insisting that you're not knowingly lying. I've insisted that you're spreading misinformation not because you're dishonest but because you're unable to overcom

    15. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Link to the exchange with that admission, because it sounds like you're talking to imaginary voices again.

      Right here:

      obviously you don't think your accusations are baseless

      So by this statement you have admitted that you have been asking me to publicly say something I don't believe is true. Simple logic, man. (Which is a discipline you do not seem to understand very thoroughly, given what you have been writing.)

      Jane, I've been defending people like you for years, insisting that you're not knowingly lying. I've insisted that you're spreading misinformation not because you're dishonest but because you're unable to overcome your honest cognitive biases (Morton's demon). But because Jane/Lonny is pathologically lying about facts as simple as his own gender, it's possible that Jane/Lonny is knowingly spreading civilization-paralyzing misinformation. If true, this would imply that Jane/Lonny Eachus has betrayed humanity.

      You don't know what my "cognitive biases" are, because you are filtering things through your own. And that is pretty obvious, right here, for everybody to read.

      First you try to make it all about you, then you claim your delusions about me (which I have repeatedly corrected) are facts. Are you SURE you know even the first thing at all about libel law?

      It is pretty easy to show, even on your own blog, that while I have been wrong at times, I have used logic and logical arguments, while your arguments have demonstrated straw-man, ad-hominem, "moving the goalposts", and other logical fallacies to the point of utter ridiculousness. For someone who insists on "D4" arguments on his blog, why have you failed to make them yourself?

      I repeat, yet again, for how many times now I have lost count: your opinion of me is not excuse for the claims you have been making. You have been trying to claim that your opinion (if it even is your genuine opinion... I have reason to doubt that) is actually fact, when it is not. Your sense of "offense" over my words -- again, even if real -- do not excuse your own behavior.

      I am just amazed that you don't seem to get that. What's the matter? Did you lose your job or something?

    16. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Further, as I meant to point out above:

      It is not reasonable or logical to say in one sentence that it is "obvious" that I don't believe my statements are baseless, and then just a short time later accuse me of deliberately lying. The two are mutually exclusive.

      But then, as I have said many times here: logic does not seem to be your strong suit. Harassment and false statements seem to be more your style. Evidence: the posts you have been making the last few weeks.

    17. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Once again, obviously you can't recognize that your accusations are baseless, even though you reasonably should have known that. Obviously, this is not an admission that your comments aren't baseless. It's an admission that your Sauron-class Morton's demon has such a tight grip that you'll probably never be able to recognize that your accusations are baseless, even though you reasonably should have known that.

      "I am curious: is there something wrong with calling a liar and a bully a liar and a bully? Fact and libel are different things." [Lonny Eachus, 2013-04-08]

    18. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      You think you are mimicking my own behavior but I assure you, there are some very large differences. [Jane Q. Public, 2014-07-09]

      Jane's telepathy isn't working correctly, but some very large differences are listed below.

      It is pretty easy to show, even on your own blog, that while I have been wrong at times, I have used logic and logical arguments, while your arguments have demonstrated straw-man, ad-hominem, "moving the goalposts", and other logical fallacies to the point of utter ridiculousness. [Jane Q. Public, 2014-07-11]

      "Apparently you think *I* am an idiot. Try reading the goddamned thread. If you really don’t want to be perceived as a “brainwashed idiot”, maybe you could bother to figure out what the argument is about before you put in your irrelevant 2 cents. As for the rest, you are one of those lazy asses I mentioned. But you are too damned lazy to look any of them up? And yes, that to me means “brainwashed idiot”. get off your lazy ass and LOOK IT UP YOURSELF!!! since you insist on being spoon-fed There are many more, very easily found, but I am not going to do your homework for you. Now go away. You disgust me." [Jane Q. Public, 2009-07-09]

      "My personal opinion might be that you are an insufferable, hypocritical asshole, and that your arguments are frequently contradictory, facetious, hypocritical, or disingenuous, but actual "fraud" never crossed my mind. An opinion that my claim was "ridiculous" is yours to have if you wish, and I don't give a damn, but stating that I made one or more statements that were "obviously fraudulent" is serious enough that you had best either back it up with evidence NOW, or back the hell off. You have very much gone over the line." [Jane Q. Public, 2010-02-18]

      "... you were insufferably arrogant and pedantic ... I told you to get stuffed and told you that UNDER OTHER CIRCUMSTANCES I would sue you. You are a pompous ass, and you distort other peoples’ statements in order to try to make yourself look good. Then you use that as a self-advertisement to try to bolster your reputation as a “scientist”. When in fact all it proves is you are a pompous ass." [Jane Q. Public, 2012-06-07]

      "Or maybe -- just a guess -- you are trying to be a vindictive asshole again, just as you have been before?" [Jane Q. Public, 2012-09-07]

      "... I didn't call you a vindictive asshole because you asked me a question. I called you that because of your habit of being annoying, rude, insulting." ... [Jane Q. Public, 2012-10-29]

      "... you're a clueless asshole. ..." [Jane Q. Public, 2013-09-15]

      "... you're such a flaming, large-bore asshole. ... " [Jane Q. Public, 2013-12-21]

      "... you just make yourself look more like an ass. ..." [Jane Q. Public, 2014-01-18]

      It is not reasonable or logical to say in one sentence that it is "obvio

    19. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Once again, obviously you can't recognize that your accusations are baseless, even though you reasonably should have known that. Obviously, this is not an admission that your comments aren't baseless. It's an admission that your Sauron-class Morton's demon has such a tight grip that you'll probably never be able to recognize that your accusations are baseless, even though you reasonably should have known that.

      To what "accusations" are you referring? You have kept saying that, but I have no idea what you mean. Certainly, I have criticized climate science, when I thought it deserved criticism. But where are these "accusations" that YOU are accusing ME of making? I don't understand what you're getting at... because in fact you aren't saying anything here.

      Yes, indeed: statements of fact and libel are different things. Where are your statements of fact here? You just wrote an entire post that doesn't say anything.

    20. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      To what "accusations" are you referring? You have kept saying that, but I have no idea what you mean. Certainly, I have criticized climate science, when I thought it deserved criticism. But where are these "accusations" that YOU are accusing ME of making? [Jane Q. Public]

      Again, your accusations of fraudulent bullshit lies are baseless, and you should have reasonably known that. You made those libelous accusations as Jane Q. Public, and as Lonny Eachus. Because, once again, you're a man dishonestly posing as a woman on the internet. Is that really so difficult to understand, or are you still trying to pretend that you aren't Lonny Eachus?

    21. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1
      You just don't get it, do you? I'm beginning to firmly believe -- this is my OPINION, you understand -- that you're a fucking idiot. I've explained this to you on a number of occasions now. THIS:

      one might even be justified in calling them fraudulent

      ... is a statement of opinion. I did not make any claim of fact. I did not, in fact, "accuse" anyone of fraud.

      Further, using words like "asshole", "jerk", etc. are generally accepted statements of opinion. It seems pretty clear that you are a human being (albeit one I have cause to greatly dislike), therefore you could not literally be an asshole. Again no claim of fact was made.

      Your failure to understand this has likely already gotten you pretty deeply into trouble. I don't know what you think you're doing here now, but I suspect you aren't helping yourself or anyone else with all this harassment.

      As for the "97%" BS, it is easy to show that it was indeed a statistical lie. That one was a claim of fact. But it's pretty easy to show that I have very, very good evidence to back it up. So again: I had -- still have -- very damned good reason to believe I was telling the truth.

      You haven't caught me in any "lies". Period. For the simple reason that I am not in the habit of uttering them.

    22. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Are you denying that you're accusing me and my colleagues of fraudulent bullshit lies (obviously you don't think your accusations are baseless)? Or are you denying that you're pathologically lying about facts as simple as your own gender? Or both?

      As you well know, I have many times denied both of those.

      And I have no reason to continue denying them on demand. Shove it up your ass.

    23. Re:Jane Q. Public is Lonny Eachus by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Just for the sake of OTHER PEOPLE who may read this, I will clarify my comment above:

      I have certainly claimed that some people who call themselves climate scientists have been telling bullshit lies. (Like the "97%" fabrication by Cook, et al.)

      There have been a few other times when, in my opinion, other climate scientists were telling bullshit lies. As opposed to mistakes. Everybody makes mistakes. You know the difference, and so do I.

      I have no idea -- zero -- whether any of those people are "colleagues" of the guy who calls himself Khayman80. It's pretty hard to either affirm or deny something you just plain don't know.

      I have also accused Khayman80 of telling lies, like the lie that I myself am a "pathological liar". (He has substituted other names at various times, but he has definitely aimed that one at me, Jane Q. Public, more than once.) He made the claim many times, yet he wasn't able to show even one instance in which I actually told a lie. Which means he has no reason to either say or believe that I am a "pathological liar", or even a liar at all. So his statements are false, and he knows them to be.

  32. Re:Move along. Nothing to see here by ZosX · · Score: 1

    So the copious amounts of greenhouse gasses humans are pumping into the stratosphere don't affect global temperatures at all despite the overwhelming evidence that the earth is indeed getting warmer? No extinction level events are happening? Just a localized anomaly huh?

  33. Re: by Rei · · Score: 1

    I'm sorry, I just read through that paper, and nowhere in it does it say that a decline in Antarctic ice is a forecast of AGW. That's one of the worst examples of "proof by ghost reference" I've ever seen. Not to mention that the paper is mainly focused on the Antarctic Peninsula, the one place that actually gets melt on more than super-rare occasions and juts into a different climate zone.

    --
    Fox: "I think we should call it... your grave!" Cast: "Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!"
  34. Re: by GiordyS · · Score: 1

    Just to be clear: are you saying that antarctic sea ice decline wasn't a forecast of AGW? How is it the supposedly "pro-science" AGW believers can have their facts so horribly mangled? You probably don't remember the 50 million climate refugees by 2010 either.

    An Initial Assessment of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in the CMIP5 Models "...all of the models have a negative trend in SIE [sea ice extent] since the mid-nineteenth century."

    Oops.
    As a left-leaning, somewhat green Canadian and former believer in CAGW, I used to think "our side" would come right out and admit it when we were wrong. How wrong I was.

  35. Re: by Rei · · Score: 1

    First, that's a paper from 2010. How was a paper from 2010 supposed to be "predicting" anything about what scientists in the past thought?

    Secondly, and more importantly, I had been responding to Archangel Michael, who was talking about the thickness of the Antarctic ice sheet, not Antarctic sea ice. So your link about pack ice is totally irrelevant.

    But hey, let's switch topics totally and talk about sea ice, since you seem to want to. Here's how the IPCC sums up all papers on the modelling of antarctic sea ice, including this one:

    Whereas sea ice extent in the Arctic has decreased, sea ice extent in the Antarctic has very likely increased. Sea ice extent across the Southern Hemisphere over the year as a whole increased by 1.3– 1.67% per decade from 1979–2012 with the largest increase in the Ross Sea during the autumn, while sea ice extent decreased in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea. The observed upward trend in Antarctic sea ice extent is found to be inconsistent with internal variability based on the residuals from a linear trend fitted to the observations, though this approach could underestimate multi-decadal variability. The CMIP5 simulations on average simulate a decrease in Antarctic sea ice extent , though Turner et al. (2013) find that approximately 10% of CMIP5 simulations exhibit an increasing trend in Antarctic sea ice extent larger than observed over the 1979-2005 period. However, Antarctic sea ice extent variability appears on average to be too large in the CMIP5 models . Overall, the shortness of the observed record and differences in simulated and observed variability preclude an assessment of whether or not the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent is inconsistent with internal variability. Based on Figure 10.16b and (Meehl et al., 2007b), the trend of Antarctic sea ice loss in simulations due to changes in forcing is weak (relative to the Arctic) and the internal variability is high, and thus the time necessary for detection is longer than in the Arctic.

    Weak trend, short observed record, and high internal variability in the simulations. Which shouldn't be surprising, sea ice is a lot harder to model than ice sheet thickness, which really only has three main parameters - snowfall, melt/sublimation, and outflow, and the short observed record is due to how few people historically have navigated antarctic waters vs. arctic.

    But again, to reiterate the primary point: the conversation you jumped into was about ice sheet thickness, not sea ice.

    --
    Fox: "I think we should call it... your grave!" Cast: "Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!"
  36. Re: by GiordyS · · Score: 1

    I'm pretty sure Archangel Michael was talking about sea ice. The antarctic ice sheet on land, as far as I know, has less total ice, not more. Correct me if I am wrong. I am not as well read in this department and don't have time at the moment to research it further. I have not read any papers that show how the +/- half degree of warming attributed to CO2 significantly increases the current glacial ice cap melt. (Assuming the +/- half degree figure is even accurate, since it is based on incorrect climate models.)

    Your post on sea ice agrees with mine. The IPCC has "low confidence" in the ability to predict antarctic sea ice precisely because the CMIP5 predictions failed. The 2010 paper was evaluating the failed CMIP5 predictions. They suggest that "the processes responsible for the observed increase over the last 30 years are not being simulated correctly." Pretty obvious after the fact.

    Since the "dangerous global warming" scare is based largely on predictions that have failed, why is there still such widespread belief in it?

  37. Re: by Rei · · Score: 2

    He said ice sheet. So we're supposed to ignore what he actually said and assume he meant something completely different? Um, no.

    "I am not well read in this department" - wait a minute, you can give exact cites for research papers on sea ice, but don't even have a *general* conception of what percentage of the Antarctic ice sheet is gaining versus what is losing? Something tells me you're just grabbing cites you've never even read from denier websites.

    Let me help you out with ice sheet. Pretty much all of the East Antarctic ice sheet is gaining, while pretty much the only area losing is the Antarctic peninsula and surrounding areas in West Antarctica. Now, they're losing *mass* a lot faster per unit area than the east is gaining mass, but in terms of area, the overwhelming majority of Antarctica is gaining ice. Because it almost never gets above freezing there, even in a warming world.

    The 2010 paper was evaluating the failed CMIP5 predictions

    If you'd actually read the paper, which you clearly haven't, you'd know that they themselves did the CMIP5 runs, it's not CMIP5 runs that had been done earlier. Do you even have a clue what CMIP5 stands for? Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. As in, "there were four freaking phases that came before this one". CMIP5 is comprised of all of the latest models from all over the world. They didn't even start planning CMIP5 unitl September 2008. Your notion that this is some sort of review of old climate predictions just shows how terrible your understanding is of what you're talking about and how you don't actually read the papers that you cite, that you're just simply grabbing them from whatever denialist trash websites you read.

    --
    Fox: "I think we should call it... your grave!" Cast: "Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!"
  38. Re: by GiordyS · · Score: 1

    Apparently admitting what I don't know is a fault in your book. Yes, I am not well read on the land ice mass issue. But thank you for providing more information. It weakens what some AGW proponents are saying, and helps balance my understanding. There appear to be conflicting reports. Someone should tell the guys at skeptical science to get their shit together.

    Re: CMIP5, I suppose that's why it's called "An Initial" assessment of the models they were using? I double checked elsewhere before posting to satisfy myself that the CMIP5 models did in fact predict less sea ice, and were in fact wrong. The whole point was to dispute your statement: "Go right ahead and point me to where a decline in Antarctic ice was a forecast of AGW", which is plainly wrong if we were talking about Antarctic sea ice extent. I see now that you misinterpreted A.Michael's post.

    Do you agree that Antarctic sea ice was falsely predicted to decline?

  39. Re: by gzuckier · · Score: 1

    Kind of like how anybody who could publish a reliable paper demonstrating antigravity is prevented from publishing, you can only get grant money for experiments which prove gravity exists. In the latest issue of PNAS alone, there are papers demonstrating what happens when you drop an empty beer bottle, an elephant, a quinoa and kale salad, a top quark, and the planet Mercury. What a surprise, they are all demonstrated to fall. Damn scientific fundamentalists!

    --
    Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
  40. Re:Reciprocal discovery will make the emails publi by Sockatume · · Score: 1

    Discovery is reciprocal, but it's not carte blanche to request any and all documentation you might feel like having a look at. In that context, a "truth" defence would require some specific evidence that they're supposed to look for, or at least a general sense that there was something in the defendant's records that they seek. A defendant can't simply request the entirety of a plaintiff's records in the hope of finding something that proves one's claims.

    Given the broadness and non-specificity of the NR's claims - Steyn has made it very clear in public statements that he views this as an opportunity to attack Mann on anything and everything he has said on climate - it seems unlikely to me that their request for discovery will succeed.

    --
    No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
  41. Re:Reciprocal discovery will make the emails publi by Sockatume · · Score: 1

    Of course, I get your point that *some* sort of reciprocal discovery will take place - for the unassailable procedural principles you point out - but the kind of sweeping access to records that Mann's opponents are chomping for simply isn't going to happen.

    --
    No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
  42. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    So you're doubling down on your accusations of lies, because your Sauron-class Morton's demon convinced you that you have very damned good reason to believe you were telling the truth. Just like you've doubled down on almost every other absurd claim you've made (an astonishingly vast collection- you're like a nonsense firehose). And like most of those other times, you reasonably should have known that. So once again, I'm not surprised that you can't recognize that your libelous accusations are baseless.

    But how could you possibly not recognize that you're Lonny Eachus, a pathological liar posing as a woman on the internet?

    In 2012 Jane Q. Public left a public comment at my website linking to http://things.titanez.net/dl/asshole-pseudo-scientist.png.

    Googling things.titanez.net showed that it's Lonny Eachus's website.

    Jane could've posted a screenshot of our conversation anonymously at a site like PostImg, but Jane's charming filename seemed like a message. So I wondered if Jane's domain name was also a deliberate message. Was it a cry for help? Part of Jane's comedy act? It couldn't be an unintentional rookie mistake, because Jane's a skilled web developer.

    1. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT

      This Internet TROLL has nothing to do with me or anyone I know, nor will I have anything to do with him.

      Ignore his obsessive rants and fantasies about me. I am long past trying to reason with him.

    2. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      Jane, how were you able to upload a screenshot to Lonny Eachus's website? Did you hack in, or did Lonny Eachus upload your charmingly named screenshot for you?

    3. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      I have no idea what you're talking about.

      I will say, however, that you appear to be linking to a page related to somebody's employment, which is low even for you.

      Do you think I should start doing the same?

    4. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Speaking of which: do you even have a job anymore? I wonder what YOUR employers would think about your rantings here on Slashdot. I doubt they would see them in a very favorable light. Not much of anyone else does, from what I've observed.

      Other than pointing out how unethical that post you made above was, I repeat that I am done with you here. You can expect no more replies from me.

    5. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      So NOW, after weeks of insults, ad-hominem and attempted character assassination, you want to try to present an actual scientific argument? Under a heading like that?

      What the hell is wrong with you?

      It seems pretty clear that something is.

    6. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      First, the links you have provided (as so often has happened) have not linked to the things you assert.

      Second, why again are you posting this in reply to a comment about something completely different?

      You are cementing the fact that your whole set of rants is not about science, not about professionalism, not about what other people actually SAID, but about your ego and sense of offense at minor implications.

      I'm not going to make accusations about your personality but some rather obvious categories come to mind.

      And your refusal to give it up after you have been shown to be wrong lends yet more evidence.

      I told you long ago that you should have given it up when you had a chance. By now it is far too late.

    7. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

      No, the links I've provided link to the things I assert. Again, in 2012 Jane Q. Public left a public comment at my website linking to http://things.titanez.net/dl/asshole-pseudo-scientist.png.

      Suppose you're being honest when you deny being Lonny Eachus, a pathological liar dishonestly posing as a woman on the internet. If you're actually an honest woman, how were you able to upload a screenshot to Lonny Eachus's website? Did you hack in, or did Lonny Eachus upload your charmingly named screenshot for you?

      Again, if you hacked in, Lonny Eachus should probably be notified.

      Again, whenever your misinformation is challenged, you almost always double down and refuse to admit your mistakes. I'm challenging your pathological lies about your own gender to see if you act differently when you're defending blatant lies that can't possibly be blamed on cognitive bias. So far, you don't. You're behaving in exactly the same way. It's getting increasingly difficult to rule out the possibility that Jane/Lonny is deliberately spreading civilization-paralyzing misinformation. If true, this would imply that Jane/Lonny Eachus has betrayed humanity.

      "If an honest man is wrong, after it is demonstrated that he is wrong, he either stops being wrong or he stops being honest." -- Anonymous [Lonny Eachus, 2013-09-27]

      "A lying liar who has to keep lying to cover his previous lies. -- IndEx http://fb.me/2vQzP38Ln" [Joe Newby, retweeted by Lonny Eachus, 2013-12-10]

      "And lying about it. I am not big on attempts to re-write history. That in itself is evil." [Lonny Eachus, 2014-05-01]

    8. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      No, the links I've provided link to the things I assert. Again, in 2012

      Well, I am happy that those things link to the things you want, but they aren't evidence of the things you SAY. Again, simple logic escapes you.

      I am going to repeat that I am replying only in self-defense in public; otherwise I wouldn't give a damn about your fantasies. What you don't seem to realize is that even if what you linked to were actually some kind of actual, deliberate act of my own, it would only constitute an implication of an opinion. Again, you fail to understand the difference between reality and opinion, or even worse in this case: an implication of an opinion. This is a rather large failure, as I have been trying to tell you for several years now.

      Quotes I may (or may not have) made about other people are their words, and I am not responsible for making them.

      ALL evidence says you just don't get it. I honestly don't know whether it is your ego that won't let you get it, or some other reason, but you clearly don't get it. You have been doing all the things you have accused others of doing, and apparently even imagining they are doing.

      That's called fantasy. And in my honest opinion, based on your real actions, I am beginning to think it's dangerous fantasy.

      GO AWAY. LEAVE ME ALONE.

    9. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Correction: "Quotes I may (or may not have) made about other people..." should have been "Quotes I may (or may not have) made OF other people..."

      But I think what I meant was still pretty clear.

    10. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      No, it constitutes proof that in 2012 Jane Q. Public left a public comment at my website linking to http://things.titanez.net/dl/a....

      You still don't get it. This is where your logic fails (as it so often has): even if I did link to that file, here is all it REALLY "proves":

      1) Someone (myself or a friend or even just someone I know) posted a file for me that I later linked to for YOUR viewing (I remember the context of the circumstances and you were being your usual [my opinion] asshole self). Who that was is ambiguous. Possibly I am a friend of this person, which is WHY I asked him to post the file. This is a rather obvious explanation I have given you several times, but you have refused to even consider it.

      2) Point out again where I have denied any such thing. You keep lying about this, then falsely accusing ME of lies when I point it out.

      3) (In association with 2): the whole thing is a loaded question. I have no way of answering it honestly because the very question is worded such that in order to answer at all, I must admit to one or more of your fantasies. Score: You: 0

      And I will add 4) why does anybody on this earth, except you, care about something that even if it went the way you say it did (which is false) care? ONLY you. Not me. Not anybody else. Except maybe a court of law. You have a weird obsession and it's FAR PAST time you went away.

    11. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      The next obvious google search showed that in 2009 Jane Q. Public asked about the "money siphon system" scam a few hours before Lonny Eachus bought into it. Those are the only posts Jane Q. Public and Lonny Eachus left on that forum. They both disappeared after those posts, presumably by ambiguous coincidence.

      Holy fuck. YOU ARE SAYING THAT BECAUSE SOMEBODY WHO USED THE SAME (PRETTY DAMNED COMMON) PSEUDONYM, AND SOMEBODY ELSE, GOT THE SAME SPAM, THE SAME YEAR, THAT IS EVIDENCE OF SOMETHING?

      Are you for real???

      Not only do you demonstrate IGNORANCE of the fact that what you bring up is a SPAM marketing email probably sent to millions, you (illogically) conclude that SOMEBODY ELSE using the "Jane Q. Public" pseudomym was ME, you THEN suggest that someone else responded to the sme spam email sent to millions was ME?

      I am beginning to understand where that "97%" claim came from: PEOPLE WHO HAVEN'T THE SLIGHTEST FUCKING CLUE HOW STATISTICS ACTUALLY WORK.

      You can CHOOSE whether you belong to that group, or shut up. Your choice.

      Hint, Mr. clueless dude: these spam messages go out en masse, and they hit hundreds of thousands of people, sometimes millions, AND Jane Q. Public is a pretty GODDAMNED common pseudonym, which is one of the 2 reasons I chose it in the first place.

      So I say again: For the sake of all that is reasonable, give up your obsessive quest. The fact that I am forced to describe it that way should be a clue to a person who is at least trying to be reasonable. And your attempt to say I am one of millions, MANY OF WHOM USE THE SAME NAME, is nothing short of ridiculous.

      IF YOU CLAIM TO BE A CLIMATE SCIENTIST, YOU DEMONSTRATE VERY CLEARLY WHY CLIMATE SCIENCE IS DISTRUSTED BY A MAJORITY OF THE THINKING PUBLIC.

      Have a nice day. You worked hard for it. And thanks for the win.

    12. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      "Correlation = causation", with exactly one data point.

      Hahahahahahahaha.

    13. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1
      I am going to quote you ]so that there is no way you can pretend you didn't say it:

      I'm challenging your pathological lies about your own gender to see if you act differently when you're defending blatant lies that can't possibly be blamed on cognitive bias.

      I don't think you know what "pathological" means, and I don't think you appreciate the HISTORICAL, TIME-HONORED tradition of using a psuedomym. Your problem with that is entirely your own and most people do not share it. Hint: that means it's your issue, dude. Deal with it. You don't get to make it a problem for other people.

      I'm challenging your pathological lies about your own gender to see if you act differently when you're defending blatant lies that can't possibly be blamed on cognitive bias.

      Excuse me? Have you even once shown me to make an argument about AGW that was "a lie" (i.e., something I knew to be false)? NO? I mean really, NO? Then what is this all about? (Suggestion: not what you say it is.)

      I'm challenging your pathological lies about your own gender to see if you act differently when you're defending blatant lies that can't possibly be blamed on cognitive bias. So far, you don't. You're behaving in exactly the same way.

      Um, HUH? This makes no sense. I haven't made any "pathological lies". WE HAVE BEEN OVER THIS, AND YOU LOST. Where is your failure to understand? It isn't mine, and it isn't right or honest -- or possibly even legal -- that you are trying again to make it my problem.

      Yes, indeed! It is going to be interesting to see who is spreading "civilization-paralyzing misinformation". But in the meantime, you don't get to define "misinformation" to be whatever offends your ego. As much as I hate to say it, hat's what courts are for.

      I will point out where you have worked to make it ambiguous: you have claimed (just above) that I have spread "misinformation", when in fact, while I have been wrong at times, I have always made a great effotr to make arguments that were fact-based. I might not have always succeeded, but I did better than you. I make no more claim than that right now, but you should pay attention.

    14. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Holy fuck again. You are arguing about something that has absolutely NOTHING to do with what I said.

      NOW you're arguing against things I did not say years ago. WTF?

      You're quoting YOURSELF about things you THOUGHT I said (and we have been over that before) YEARS AGO???

      Are you for real? I have asked one attorney and he has referred me to another. So far, that is the truth.

    15. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Haha. No reasonable person (and I have spoken to a few) believe that AC was not you. From all appearances, that is just another aspect of your unethical behavior, and you're trying to parade it as evidence in your favor.

      I've said it already, but you seem to have a problem with this: your own actions have destroyed your own credibility. It wasn't me. It was you.

    16. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      I would just like to point out one more thing about your post:

      It demonstrates, quite clearly, the obsession you have had about me, by the depth to which you have tried to research my actions. And also the depths to which you will sink in order to try to make your assumed findings a problem in my social life.

      If that isn't evidence of mal intent, I don't know what is.

    17. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Thanks for confirming that you asked Lonny Eachus to post the file, because you know him and are possibly his friend. Why are you so ambiguous and evasive about your friendship with Lonny Eachus? It almost sounds like you're ashamed to be his friend. As I've pointed out, you and Lonny Eachus have so much in common that you're clearly soulmates.

      Strangely, Lonny Eachus seems to feel the same way about Jane. After I debunked Lonny's claim that dark energy is dead, Lonny went on an evasive rant that seems almost identical to Jane's comments above. Why would Lonny Eachus be ashamed of being friends with Jane, when they have so much in common?

      None of my personal life is any of your business. Period. Your assumptions are YOUR assumptions, and nothing more.

    18. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      You seemed to make it my business when you left a public comment at my website linking to http://things.titanez.net/dl/a....

      And I'll repeat the question I asked you years ago: why do you ASSUME that meant you? Why do you ASSUME I named that file myself? Why do you ASSUME it was even my file to begin with?

      I've seen you make 40+ absurd claims

      I have admitted my mistakes, when they were actually shown to be mistakes. You have not done the same.

    19. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      I've seen you make 40+ absurd claims,

      Further, I will add:

      Not only have some of those "absurd" claims turned out to be true (such as the recent admission of NCDC that Tony Heller's criticisms about "filled in" data were accurate), NONE of that has any bearing at all on your own outrageous behavior: making demonstrably false claims about me in public, incessantly harassing me, stalking my comments here and harassing me over them, and other attempts to stalk me online, attempting to research details of my private life (beyond creepy), and other things which normal people generally consider to be outside the bounds of civilized behavior.

      I repeat: before you try to lecture other people about their behavior, you really need to take a long look in a mirror.

    20. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      On the other hand, you miss the point in subtle ways and argue endlessly, never quite coming to grips with reality, while always retreating to some absurd evasion that seems to acknowledge the obvious while, in fact, concluding the exact opposite.

      What points have I missed in subtle ways? This is exactly what I have been saying to you... except not so much about "subtle".

      For instance, after I debunked your lecture on neutrino oscillation, you repeatedly claimed that I missed where you admitted you were wrong.

      Right there, on the page you linked to, is my comment that YOU missed reading the other thread where I had in fact stated that I understood and had made a mistake.

      And THIS is what you have CONSISTENTLY failed to understand: the parent of that comment was one of your long, bizarre diatribes about a subject I had already been informed about, by someone else, and you posted that comment in reply to a comment of mine TO SOMEONE ELSE, which had nothing at all to do with you. And you fail to see why such STALKING is behavior that pisses people off.

      You have DELIBERATELY doing this for years, and yes, dammnit, it pisses me off. And you know that, because I have told you many times. And my honest opinion is that you do it for that very reason.

      But what is funny about the whole thing is that it isn't actually an example of what you claim, because I had in fact already explained TO SOMEONE ELSE, IN ANOTHER THREAD, that I understood that I had made a mistake, and what that mistake was.

      Your comment (more like a fucking book) was posted inappropriately, at the wrong time, and was wholly unappreciated. Yet for some WEIRD reason you seem to think the reason I reacted the way I did was some problem of MINE.

      Which is why I have stated these many times that you seem to have a very serious problem with social skills, and you should GO AWAY.

      I found you telling other people to STFU, which even you've called nasty and arrogant.

      And for "proof" of this you chose a situation in which someone jumped in and posted an insulting comment that was out of context.

      Yep. I did that. But the fact remains that he was both wrong, and worded the comment in a deliberately insulting way. He deserved that STFU. I have no obligation to be polite to someone who has been impolite to me first. Was that an overreaction, under the circumstances? Perhaps. But then it's not exactly something I do often, either.

      It's you, who don't seem to get that it isn't your scientific arguments I have a problem with. It's the fact that you have such a goddamned problem making one, and instead resort to out-of-context, moving-the-goalposts, ad-hominem, and other invalid tactics to try to make your point. And even worse. The above post is just another example.

      If that's what you consider "admitting your mistakes" then do you also think this is a shining example of your intellectual integrity?

      Hahaha. Frankly, it isn't a "shining example" of much of anything, as far as I can tell.

      One has to wonder why you picked that particular exchange. The preponderance of evidence did agree with me, just as I stated. I did not make any other specific claim.

      According to the majority of the references, Purdue did indeed have its head up its ass on that particular point. The majority of more authoritative sources directly contradict the "rule".

      So while I don't call it a "shining example" of much of anything, I was still correct. According to the majority -- not just a small majority but almost all -- of the references I checked. And I checked many.

    21. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      You are not welcome, as far as *I* am concerned. I won't try to speak for anyone else.

      I repeat: the only reason I have been replying to you here at all has been in self-defense, which would not be necessary at all if your own behavior were not so APPARENTLY pathologically antisocial.

      I repeat what I have stated many times: you have been deliberately spreading claims of fact about me, in public, that you know, or reasonably should know, are untrue. I am not responding here to you out of any particular desire of my own to converse with you in any way. I have asked you many times to go away and leave me alone, and you have failed to honor that request, in a rather extreme manner.

      I have reason to believe you are not entirely mentally well. Exactly what your problem is, I do not know, but from where I sit you definitely seem to have one.

    22. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      s/are of course the place/are of course referring to the place

      You're making yourself look ever worse here, man. I'm not about to invite you to keep it up. In fact I've told you many times to go away.

      But you aren't doing yourself or your image any favors. Really.

    23. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Again, that was the last quote in my debunking that you repeatedly and wrongly claimed I missed.

      Yet another logic failure.

      First, you were attempting to "debunk" a discussion in which I actually asked questions, and actually learned the answer (which means you were too late to be doing any "debunking", if there was any to be done). If it needs repeating, in that exchange I had asked how neutrinos could oscillate between types when they were different masses. It wasn't the first thing I said, but I did ask it.

      And second, if it was the last quote in your "debunking" then you did indeed miss it, didn't you? Because you refused to acknowledge that it was an admission that my original point was likely wrong.

      Either way, you still missed it.

    24. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      So when you repeatedly claimed I'd missed where you admitted you were wrong, you meant that I'd quoted you and explained that you'd manufactured unwarranted doubt by inserting words like could and theoretically.

      Since it was a theoretical discussion, inserting "theoretically" was justified. "Could" means what it means. I am not interested -- even a little -- in your interpretations of my words, since (1) you have long since demonstrated that you either aren't capable of or aren't willing to take them at face value, but rather filter them through your own weird little worldview. And (2) I have no obligation to explain my self to you. I mean, if there was ANYBODY on Slashdot I might owe an explanation to, you are very definitely not him.

      I repeat: the only reasonable explanation for these posts of yours has been to dig up anything you could that you think might make me look bad. It's pretty easy for other people to see that, and also just how pathetic these attempts have become. What could be your motivation for doing that? And why should I help you? I mean, other than that it has just helped you dig a deeper hole for yourself.

      Remember: I haven't been doing this. You have. I've only been defending myself from your allegations, and not even bothering with some of that. You haven't gotten full answers simply because you don't deserve them. And you aren't going to. It's that simple.

    25. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      I guess I should say one more thing, although I shouldn't have to:

      I am tired of responding to these fishing expeditions of yours. Go away and leave me alone. FUCK OFF!!!

      And don't try to pretend I said that to someone who was trying to have a civil discussion with me. Your intent has been transparent, and anything but civil. You deserve nothing more.

    26. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      I think you have pretty much given me the information I need now. I have no further reason to answer any of your questions at this time.

      Unless you can think of something else you want to blurt out that I may find useful.

    27. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      I already told you: your assumptions are of no interest to me.

      (And your desperation is showing rather badly. Tsk.)

    28. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Thanks for gathering them all up for me. But I don't think those constitute "suggesting" anything. I'd have to read them all more carefully before I made up my mind. Though I admit I have said in the past that I thought you were sock-puppeting. For the simple reason that I had evidence you were sock-puppeting.

      See, while I admit I have made mistakes at times, unlike some people I've encountered I don't deliberately lie about people in public, or try to claim they say or wrote things other than what they actually did.

    29. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

      Re: "evading" your questions: that's clearly your own point of view.

      I asked you before, but you seem to have forgotten: after the crap you've done, what possible motivation do you think I might have to answer any of your questions?

      I did so when it served my own purposes. And I'm done. Bye now.

    30. Re:Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by Demena · · Score: 1

      Gender is not binary. There are, I believe, quite a large number of transgender, transexual and gender fluid people in the slashdot community. I do not know about the person you are arguing with but I suspect they should and are losing their arguments. However if you attack them on the basis of expressed gender then you are going to alienate a lot of transgender people if your attitude to them is that they are prima facie liars. I would think it best to drop the gender issue.

  43. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    Thanks for your concerns. Link to whatever you want. Again, I'm talking about the fact that in 2012 Jane Q. Public left a public comment at my website linking to http://things.titanez.net/dl/asshole-pseudo-scientist.png.

    Again, how were you able to upload a screenshot to Lonny Eachus's website? Did you hack in, or did Lonny Eachus upload your charmingly named screenshot for you?

    If you hacked in, Lonny Eachus should probably be notified.

  44. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    You can argue if you like that a ~ 27.3% increase is large but I disagree, since climate sensitivity to CO2... [Jane Q. Public, 2014-07-07]

    Ocean acidification is independent of climate sensitivity, and it's another reason to be concerned about the unprecedented rapidity of our CO2 emissions.

    I would also like to point out again that even if acidification is happening, the RESULTS of that acidification are probably less than alarmists have claimed. Example (2010 article): http://www.rationaloptimist.co... [Jane Q. Public, 2014-06-10]

    Lonny Eachus also linked to that misinformation from Matt Ridley, a journalist with a long history of distorting climate science.

    In contrast, I quoted from Honisch et al. 2012 (PDF), Knoll et al. 2007 (PDF), and Ken Caldeira’s 2012 AGU lecture. That last link was from my videos section which also includes:

    I'm not a chemist or a marine biologist/ecologist, so I read peer-reviewed papers and go to conferences like the AGU to watch lectures by scientists who do specialize and publish in those fields. For instance, consider that 2011 AGU panel on declining reef health. Nina Keul observed one species of foramanifera Glas et al. 2012 (PDF) growing faster as carbonate ion concentration decreases (which happens when CO2 increases). She provided context by noting that this is one species from one experiment, noting that this is like looking at one puzzle piece of a big puzzle.

    Then Adina Paytan provides further context by noting that most species aren't like this. She shows Fig. 2 from Crook et al. 2012 (PDF) which shows that only ~3 out of 9 species of coral are present in locations with naturally low pH and notes that "Because these three species are rarely major contributors to Caribbean reef framework, these data may indicate that today’s more complex frame-building species may be replaced by smaller, possibly patchy, colonies of only a few species along the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef."

    Finally, Robert Ridin

  45. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    Again, in 2012 Jane Q. Public left a public comment at my website linking to http://things.titanez.net/dl/asshole-pseudo-scientist.png.

    Suppose you're being honest when you deny being Lonny Eachus, a pathological liar dishonestly posing as a woman on the internet. If you're actually an honest woman, how were you able to upload a screenshot to Lonny Eachus's website? Did you hack in, or did Lonny Eachus upload your charmingly named screenshot for you?

    Again, if you hacked in, Lonny Eachus should probably be notified.

  46. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    No, it constitutes proof that in 2012 Jane Q. Public left a public comment at my website linking to http://things.titanez.net/dl/asshole-pseudo-scientist.png.

    Suppose you're being honest when you deny being Lonny Eachus, a pathological liar dishonestly posing as a woman on the internet. If you're actually an honest woman, how were you able to upload a screenshot to Lonny Eachus's website? Did you hack in, or did Lonny Eachus upload your charmingly named screenshot for you?

    Again, if you hacked in, Lonny Eachus should probably be notified.

  47. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    Someone (myself or a friend or even just someone I know) posted a file for me that I later linked to for YOUR viewing (I remember the context of the circumstances and you were being your usual [my opinion] asshole self). Who that was is ambiguous. Possibly I am a friend of this person, which is WHY I asked him to post the file.

    Lonny Eachus isn't ambiguous.

    The next obvious google search showed that in 2009 Jane Q. Public asked about the "money siphon system" scam a few hours before Lonny Eachus bought into it. Those are the only posts Jane Q. Public and Lonny Eachus left on that forum. They both disappeared after those posts, presumably by ambiguous coincidence.

  48. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    Again, whenever your misinformation is challenged, you almost always double down and refuse to admit your mistakes. I'm challenging your pathological lies about your own gender to see if you act differently when you're defending blatant lies that can't possibly be blamed on cognitive bias. So far, you don't. You're behaving in exactly the same way. It's getting increasingly difficult to rule out the possibility that Jane/Lonny is deliberately spreading civilization-paralyzing misinformation. If true, this would imply that Jane/Lonny Eachus has betrayed humanity.

  49. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    No, dozens of experimental data points where Jane might have been honestly overwhelmed by his Sauron-class Morton's demon. One control data point where Jane is definitely lying, because he's a pathological liar named Lonny Eachus who's dishonestly posing as a woman on the internet. Consider this AC:

    "... Jane Q exists to intentionally miss the point in subtle ways and argue endlessly, never quite coming to grips with reality, while always retreating to some absurd evasion that seems to acknowledge the obvious while, in fact, concluding the exact opposite. ... On every topic you could imagine, Jane Q insists upon things such as that the earth is hollow, birds evolved from insects, bismuth is a stable element, water shrinks when it freezes, super conductivity is the result of electron tripletting, dark matter is a myth, Thomas Jefferson created judicial review, etc, etc, etc, on and on forever. There is literally no subject upon which Jane Q will not loudly correct the truth with misapprehension. ..."

    While this is an accurate description of Jane and I've also noticed Jane's dark matter claims, I'm curious to hear Jane's lectures about the hollow earth, birds evolving from insects, bismuth being a stable element, water shrinking when it freezes, and super conductivity being the result of electron tripletting.

  50. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    No, I quoted that AC because, as I said, I hadn't heard your lectures on the hollow earth, birds evolving from insects, bismuth being a stable element, water shrinking when it freezes, and super conductivity being the result of electron tripletting.

    I have seen you spray nonsense like a firehose on dozens of similarly absurd topics, so I wouldn't be surprised. I just wanted to see if those particular topics were part of Jane/Lonny Eachus's comedy act.

  51. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    ... Possibly I am a friend of this person, which is WHY I asked him to post the file. ... [Jane Q. Public]

    Thanks for confirming that you asked Lonny Eachus to post the file, because you know him and are possibly his friend. Why are you so ambiguous and evasive about your friendship with Lonny Eachus? It almost sounds like you're ashamed to be his friend. As I've pointed out, you and Lonny Eachus have so much in common that you're clearly soulmates.

    Strangely, Lonny Eachus seems to feel the same way about Jane. After I debunked Lonny's claim that dark energy is dead, Lonny went on an evasive rant that seems almost identical to Jane's comments above. Why would Lonny Eachus be ashamed of being friends with Jane, when they have so much in common?

  52. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    You seemed to make it my business when you left a public comment at my website linking to http://things.titanez.net/dl/asshole-pseudo-scientist.png.

    You could've posted a screenshot of our conversation anonymously at a site like PostImg, but your charming filename seemed like a message. So I wondered if your domain name was also a deliberate message, which would make it my business. But maybe it was just an unintentional rookie mistake.

    Haha. No reasonable person (and I have spoken to a few) believe that AC was not you. From all appearances, that is just another aspect of your unethical behavior, and you're trying to parade it as evidence in your favor. I've said it already, but you seem to have a problem with this: your own actions have destroyed your own credibility. It wasn't me. It was you. [Jane Q. Public, 2014-07-13]

    Third time's the charm? You and your Scooby gang of reasonable people should've noticed that I snipped a part of that AC's comment because it used a cuss word to describe you. I've never used that insult to describe you, despite you repeatedly using it to describe me and then complaining that I'm rude, insulting.

    Your Scooby gang also should've noticed that if I'd I written that comment, then I wouldn't have to ask if you'd actually lectured on those topics. I've seen you make 40+ absurd claims, in addition to your lectures on climate change, dark matter, neutrino oscillation, the Alcubierre effect and Maxwell's equations, and creationists. I wouldn't have to make up absurd lectures from you, because I already have so many real examples.

  53. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    I have admitted my mistakes, when they were actually shown to be mistakes. You have not done the same. [Jane Q. Public]

    Actually, I do. For example, I thanked TinyCO2 and Michael for correcting one mistake, and apologized for the confusion after another mistake.

    On the other hand, you miss the point in subtle ways and argue endlessly, never quite coming to grips with reality, while always retreating to some absurd evasion that seems to acknowledge the obvious while, in fact, concluding the exact opposite.

    It's so ironically meta for you to argue endlessly that you admit your mistakes. For instance, after I debunked your lecture on neutrino oscillation, you repeatedly claimed that I missed where you admitted you were wrong. Despite the fact that the last quote in my post was the closest example I could find to a genuine admission that you'd been wrong. Even then, you manufactured unwarranted doubt by inserting words like could and theoretically. At the same time, you made additional claims which were never challenged, like equating the MSW effect with lasers.

    When I looked for other instances where you'd admitted you were wrong, I found you telling other people to STFU, which even you've called nasty and arrogant. I found you saying that you were continuing the fiction by allowing some to think you didn't get that your answer is incorrect, and not letting on that you know a hell of a lot about neutrino flavor oscillations. That doesn't sound like you understood you had been wrong after it was explained to you. It sounds like you'd been pretending to be ignorant from the very beginning.

    If that's what you consider "admitting your mistakes" then do you also think this is a shining example of your intellectual integrity? Obviously you could retreat to some absurd evasion and argue endlessly that you admit your mistakes, but don't you see even a tiny bit of irony there?

  54. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    Thanks Jane/Lonny Eachus.

  55. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    But what is funny about the whole thing is that it isn't actually an example of what you claim, because I had in fact already explained TO SOMEONE ELSE, IN ANOTHER THREAD, that I understood that I had made a mistake, and what that mistake was. [Jane Q. Public]

    Since I already linked and quoted all the places where you'd "explained" your mistake before I debunked you, your complete lack of links to these genuinely vindicating admissions speaks volumes. But if I asked for a link, that would merely be the prelude to the Layzej link gambit where you'd accuse me of being a sociopath. Instead, could we please skip to the part where you provide the vindicating link where you actually admitted your mistake? Otherwise it still seems ironically meta for you to keep arguing endlessly that you admit your mistakes. (Seriously, read that Layzej link and soak it in.)

  56. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    Fourth time's the charm, maybe? It's fascinating that you wrongly accused me of wanting to ask you 20 questions (then 7 billion!) about your identity when I've only been asking one. Repeatedly. Are you Lonny Eachus? By now you've wrongly suggested that I'm four different people. When you get to 20, will you finally say whether or not you're Lonny Eachus?

    I wrote "I now see how, theoretically anyway, it could be a probabilistically-determined superposition. That clears up a lot."

    Again, that was the last quote in my debunking that you repeatedly and wrongly claimed I missed.

  57. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    Do you really not remember the other three? Are you a goldfish?

  58. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    So when you repeatedly claimed I'd missed where you admitted you were wrong, you meant that I'd quoted you and explained that you'd manufactured unwarranted doubt by inserting words like could and theoretically. I also explained that at the same time, you made additional claims which were never challenged, like equating the MSW effect with lasers. That's why you asked "why didn't you bother to repeat the part...?" when I actually had repeated that part and responded to it?

  59. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    So when you asked "why didn't you bother to repeat the part...?" you actually meant that I had repeated that part and responded to it?

  60. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    And I'll repeat the question I asked you years ago: why do you ASSUME that meant you? Why do you ASSUME I named that file myself? Why do you ASSUME it was even my file to begin with? [Jane Q. Public]

    So you didn't name or even make the file you linked in a public comment at my website. You didn't name or even make the screenshot of our conversation, which you defended after quoting me saying that you made the screenshot. You didn't name the file "asshole-pseudo-scientist.png" and that doesn't refer to me, despite the fact that you've been calling me an asshole for years. And still are.

    Again, you're being absurdly evasive, just like every time your misinformation is challenged. Except this time you're blatantly lying. Are you also deliberately lying when you spread all your civilization-paralyzing misinformation? If true, this would imply that Jane/Lonny Eachus has betrayed humanity.

    "A lying liar who has to keep lying to cover his previous lies. -- IndEx http://fb.me/2vQzP38Ln" [Joe Newby, retweeted by Lonny Eachus, 2013-12-10]

  61. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    By now you've wrongly suggested that I'm four different people.

    Really? And what people are those? [Jane Q. Public, 2014-07-15]

    One two three four.

    But since you're struggling I'll throw you a bone. Some of the AC's on number four are a different matter. Seen a new squirrel you've never seen before? Squirrel!

  62. Jane is Lonny Eachus is a pathological liar by khayman80 · · Score: 1

    Just like you "admitted you made mistakes" in the three examples I gave above? Have you also forgotten that you're a man named Lonny Eachus dishonestly posing as a woman on the internet while accusing scientists of fraudulent bullshit lies, or do I have to link to that again too? (Go ahead, pretend you don't remember any of this so I have to link it all again. Your absurd evasions are adorable.)

  63. Changing topic to something resembling reality by Jane+Q.+Public · · Score: 1

    I don't know why I didn't think of it earlier, but it finally occurred to me that I can change the topic header away from the one YOU originally put on this little... um... show of yours.

  64. Re: by stoatwblr · · Score: 1

    _EXTENT_ of ice is not the same as _VOLUME_ of ice.

    As landbased ice moves into the sea faster, the icecaps get thinner, but the (insubstantially thin by comprison(*)) "skirt" of sea ice spreads out further because it's being pushed out faster (it's still melting in the same amount of time once in the water, there's just more ice getting into the water in the first place - and to add to the fun, faster flow results in larger icebergs (they come from glaciers) which take a bit longer to melt, and are drifting further towards the equator before completely melting - increasing hazards to shipping.

    The volume of ice in the water is FAR less than the volume of ice being lost above sea level off the land - and as with ice in a glass, once it's in the water it's already raised the water level whether it melts or not.

    Changes in volume of sea ice only matter if they are changes in the volume of sea ice which formed IN THE SEA - and that particular number is going down, not up, once the entire antarctic coastline is taken into account.

    (*) Land ice is thousands of feet deep in antarctica. There are 4000 foot high mountain peaks covered by another 4000 feet of ice plains in many areas. Seasonal sea ice seldom exceeds 6 feet thick and even the ice shelves are only a few hundred feet at the absolute deepest for the most part (these are mostly glacier tongues anyway. Some go a lot deeper but only in spaces a few miles wide, which is inconsequential compared to thousands of miles of coastline. These deep ones are the ones which produce megabergs, once enough water gets under them to snap off the tongue.)