Slashdot Mirror
Why Are the World's Scientists Continuing To Take Chances With Smallpox?
Lasrick writes: MIT's Jeanne Guillemin looks at the recent blunders with smallpox and H5N1 at the Centers for Disease Control and the National Institutes of Health to chronicle the fascinating history of smallpox eradication efforts and the attempts (thwarted by Western scientists) to destroy lab collections of the virus in order to make it truly extinct. "In 1986, with no new smallpox cases reported, the World Health Assembly, the decision-making body of the WHO, resolved to destroy the strain collections and make the virus extinct. But there was resistance to this; American scientists in particular wanted to continue their research." Within a few years, secret biological warfare programs were discovered in Moscow and in Iraq, and a new flurry of defensive research was funded. Nevertheless, Guillemin and others believe that changes in research methods, which no longer require the use of live viruses, mean that stocks of the live smallpox virus can and should finally be destroyed.
Humanity will never stop playing with fire. It's built into our brains. And as long as some person, somewhere, somehow, has access to smallpox samples, scientists will continue studying it for "defensive research."
...you can't possibly guarantee the destruction of every sample. We have lax tracking policies to thank for that. If we voluntarily destroy all our live samples, and some other nation doesn't, then you can bet your next paycheck someone will use that as a weapon against us and we'll be totally powerless to retaliate (or so goes the argument).
Which has more power: the hammer, or the anvil?
We should give some lifeform a break
Short answer, smallpox control has never really been that good. Also an answer - each government wants to keep the only supply as a potential weapon.
I want to delete my account but Slashdot doesn't allow it.
"Why are scientists continuing to take chances with uranium?"
"Why are scientists continuing to take chances with high voltage?"
"Why are scientists continuing to take chances with dimethyl mercury?"
Because science.
Also, there's no reason to obsess over the presence of a few virus particles in a jar on a shelf somewhere, if we have the source code in the form of its gene sequence. In that case we'll be able to resynthesize the virus at our leisure, at some point in the not-too-distant future.
And if we don't already have the gene sequence in hand, well, that's a problem in itself.
They take chances with it because the benefits outweighs the risks.
How about we focus on those things that actually gets people hurt, like banksters taking chances with the economy and politicians using the army to play chicken-race. You know, the stuff that actually gets innocent people killed.
In the case of smallpox what would happen is that the scientist screwing up might get infected and placed in quarantine. Even in the case of an actual smallpox outbreak it can be contained again with proper vaccination.
It's an inferior move to reduce your options and throw away something irreversibly. You don't delete documents when you have abundant storage, you don't discard items in a video game with endless inventory.
I'll accept that having poorly tracked, poorly secured, poorly vetted, poorly restricted, and/or poorly located samples keeps them from being a benign non-factor as above.
I don't accept that throwing them away (the ones we know about) is the only counter. Hell, we can spare a few grams of payload and put one in space.
Plus, having some in stock allows the the create of a vaccine if by some chance it ever emerges again.
Those "recent blunders" were cases in which they thought they had destroyed samples, but they had not.
If they'd decided to destroy "all" samples in 1986, those samples would not have been destroyed, because nobody knew they existed.
Furthermore, there are smallpox victims buried in permafrost. Not to mention the published genome sequence.
Permanently eliminating all smallpox samples isn't even possible. If you're going to decide whether to destroy a particular sample, you have to keep that in mind. Personally I tend to suspect you're better off to keep some around, in a place where you can find it, in case some of the stuff that you don't know about gets loose and starts causing disease.
Laboratory samples are not necessarily the only sources of still viable small pox virus. With climate change now a global reality, thawing of the arctic permafrost means that the remains of victims who died of smallpox before eradication, even if buried (but especially if not), can potentially still release the disease into the current population. There was some news a while ago when the the Spanish Flu of 1918 was recovered in this way, albeit intentionally in the interest of science. But who knows if/when nature should take it's course this way with small pox, without our help?
========== "Hello World" in my programming language of choice: ATG - LET THERE BE LIFE - TAG ==========
If forgotten, still infectious smallpox scabs are floating around, why does it matter if a couple of extremely secure and capable labs have a sample?
We don't *think* we need the samples for anything, but next week someone could invent a new form of analysis that obtains invaluable new data from live virus samples.
Captain Trips is only a matter of time. Or zombies.
How problematic is a 60yr old vial of likely dead virus anyway?
According to the agency, the virus was freeze dried and sealed in melted glass and the samples have been in storage since the 1950s.
And they were sealed in melted glass? Come on...
Sounds like a BS "Panic! Your life is in danger!" story to distract us from the worlds real problems.
Honestly, what a fantastic way of completely screwing your enemy. smallpox bombs are a fantastic weapon that will make the people turn on their local government and military as soon as their children start dying.
Biological and Chemical warfare is worse than nuclear warfare, and it's heinous to it's core.
Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
If it emerges again, I imagine finding a sample of the virus won't exactly be a problem...
Destroying smallpox samples doesn't magically erase the disease from existence.
Correct.
In erases it from existence by non-magic, real, tangible methods (e.g. destroying every last living member of the species).
If it emerges again t won't be exactly the same. Best to be prepared ahead of time instead of spending months, or years after it emerges trying to figure it out.
. Meaning we will \have learned more techniques to help us respond to different vectors, not that it will reemerge exactly like something we have in a lab.
plus, there is still a lot to learn fro it that applies to may viruses.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
There's another kind of scientist?
Sounds like a script from a movie...
Earth 2110 A mutated smallpox pandemic is sweeping the world.
Researchers desperately need an original sample from which to make an vaccine.
Man foolishly destroyed all samples back in the dark years of 2014.
Now a ragtag group of adventurers attempt to find the last remaining sample, the world depends on it!
if we have the sequence(s) & it can be replicated can it ever actually be considered eradicated?
[edit: ironically enough my captcha word was "pathogen" :D ]
I'd avoid weaponizing it. I think the science labs that weaponize viruses on the argument that they need to know how to counter weaponized viruses is a little bunk. But I do think the viruses should be kept on file. Keep them in deep dark vaults... but keep them. I don't know if we'll ever need them for some reason but if we do they're there.
As to the worry that scientists might misuse them. I didn't say I'd let the scientists play with them. Just keep them. Seal them away somewhere and require a public hearing to release them to any lab.
Possibly include a 24 hour armed guard to accompany the virus if its released to a lab. The expense of such a guard should discourage casual research.
I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
In the rare case of necessary future research, it will allow them recognition in their field, leading to alpha status and thus more pussy.
Oh, you meant an analysis lower down within the memetic virtual worldview. Hmmmm. Why does a dog bark at strangers?
(-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
"In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they are not."
If you want to know that you can protect against/treat smallpox virus, even if mutated (un)naturally, you have to have some with which to work.
The question is fundamentally nonsense.
. . . . then only outlaws will have (repeat item here).
What if it turns out that the disease that killed all the Martians when they attacked back in 1938 was smallpox, and what if that was the ONLY disease they were susceptible to?
Wouldn't we feel like dummies if we destroyed all our
supplies and they attacked again?
we've thought extinct multiple species before... like macroscopic seeable species... and then been really surprised when a member or two of said species fell out of a bush in front of a cameraman... don't be naive.
For those who don't already know, the smallpox vaccine is the not made from smallpox.
It was originally made from a virus commonly known as "cowpox", although they may have used the horse version for development.
smallpox virus is "variola"
the vaccinating (cowpox) virus is "vaccinia"
The point is, we don't need smallpox to make more vaccine and would not do that anyway.
The CDC has enough vaccine to vaccinate everyone in the USA for smallpox, should it come to that.
Sure, there's a long, long list of Lazarus species, once thought dead but found alive.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L...
And we might clone back an Ibex someday again...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P...
But the list of extinct species vastly outnumbers the Lazarus list, and includes plenty that we're directly responsible for with our own hands.
I just verified that Thinkgeek doesn't have smallpox
ahhh, nostalgia!
the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
yeah, we know, things die real good around us humans for some reason.
the point was, we suck at knowing things, even when those things are big enough for us to see.
Of course not. It'll be bundled with a "free" cell phone for underdeveloped nations...or for populated nations. It'll be produced by the US and built in China, and nobody will have any idea where along the chain they got infected...
One English military officer suggested it - Lord Jeffrey Amherst. It's unknown if he actually attempted it. That's the entirety of the story. Weak attempt at religion bashing.
We've had an anthrax vaccines since the 1800's.
True, but macroscopic species can survive on their own. Viruses need to infect hosts to spread, and many viruses don't remain viable for long outside of a host. From what I can find, it seems like smallpox is such a virus.
We hope your rules and wisdom choke you / Now we are one in everlasting peace
If it's not exactly the same then what we've got wouldn't be very useful.
I'm with the "destroy it" crowd. If someone attacks us with smallpox, nuke the fuck out of them.
If I have been able to see further than others, it is because I bought a pair of binoculars.
Why⦠what a fascinating idea. To hold in my hand that capsule⦠to know that life and death on such a level was my choice. Such power would set me up above the gods!
Imagine all the people...
This just makes me think of the Alien's movie, where The Company(tm) wants to harvest, study and learn from the Xenomorphs, even after being fully aware at how horribly dangerous they were.
No, we wouldn't need our own live smallpox to construct a vaccine against a weaponized smallpox. The original vaccine was made from cowpox, and eventually the closely related vaccinia disease, and was much safer than smallpox-based inoculation which was the other prevention available at the time.
The only reason to keep the stuff around is to attack the Russians in case they attack us with their smallpox, and we can be better people than that. Time to destroy it, and convince Putin to destroy his stockpiles also.
Bill Stewart
New Fast-Compression-only CPR http://preview.tinyurl.com/dy575ks
Well, go get your Nobel prize in epidemiology, since the world's last recorded case of smallpox was in 1978.
And they keep coming out with new albums.
You seem awful confident about that assertion for some reason.
we suck at knowing things, even when those things are big enough for us to see
Welcome to the real world where imperfect knowledge has been enshrined in a very useful philosophy we call "Science".
Science is just highly refined common sense. The fact that the biblical plague of smallpox has not been seen in the wild for decades convincingly demonstrates science knows enough to control it, what more do you need to know? Sure it may pop up somewhere after all these years, but even if that very unlikely* event was to occur we have already demonstrated we know how to deal with it and stop it spreading. So even though we can never know for sure that every last smallpox bug has been killed, we do know that as long as our current knowledge is passed on to the next generation, smallpox will never again cause human miseries of biblical proportions. This scant knowledge also tells us that smallpox (alone) would be a stupid choice for a biological weapon.
very unlikely* - Without special care smallpox does not survive for very long outside of a human host, the human body is it's unique natural habitat.
And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage? - Pink Floyd.
All the tin-pot dictators wanted it...
It is stupid to think destroying lab stocks removes the 'problem'.
The 'problem' is not these stocks but undiscovered natural reservoirs of diseases.
Destroying the stock reduces capability of the biomedical community to respond to fresh out breaks.
:) found some preserved in scabs stuck in the pages of an old book.
:) the eradication of smallpox is perhaps the shining pinnacle of human achievement... and cooperation.
smallpox is easy to identify, much easier to control than polio. but that doesn't mean it's easy or uncostly. It took a full on decade with everybody involved, literally everybody. In the midst of the cold war.
Again, we're discovering species every day, and sometimes we've mislabelled species extinct. And apparently we know less about the ocean depths than the moon's surface... so you know, yes we suck at knowing stuff :)
like 95% of the universe.
Is making any species extinct a good idea? If so, why?
I mean, if it had been destroyed in '86, we'd never have sequenced it. What more info can we get from it 10 or 20 years from now?
Also, this whole "debacle" is massively overblown. Note that a) the amules were all still securely sealed, and in appropriate storage... it's just that they should have been known, and put in recorded storage.
For that matter, where's whatever you were looking for at home? Or when was the last time your boss asked you to find something that you spend hours, or weeks, on and off, looking for? Now let's talk about the NIH campus in Bethesda, with (depending on your sources) somewhere betwwn 18,000 and 35,000 people who work there every day, and sixty or eighty buildings, including a large hospital. That is *not* a small place to misplace something.
Oh, and I've yet to see or hear *anything* as to *why* it was left there. Was the team that was working on it laid off, or reorganized somewhere else?
No, destroying it all's a bad idea.
mark