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If Fusion Is the Answer, We Need To Do It Quickly

Lasrick writes: Yale's Jason Parisi makes a compelling case for fusion power, and explains why fusion is cleaner, safer, and doesn't provide opportunities for nuclear smuggling and proliferation. The only downside will be the transition period, when there are both fission and fusion plants available and the small amount of "booster" elements (tritium and deuterium) found in fusion power could provide would-be proliferators what they need to boost the yield of fission bombs: "The period during which both fission and fusion plants coexist could be dangerous, however. Just a few grams of deuterium and tritium are needed to increase the yield of a fission bomb, in a process known as 'boosting.'" Details about current research into fusion power and an exploration of relative costs make fusion power seem like the answer to a civilization trying to get away from fossil fuels.

213 of 305 comments (clear)

  1. Fusion Confusion by smittyoneeach · · Score: 4, Funny

    Fusion confusion
    With facial hair cruisin'.
    Fission frission
    Bears smooth-faced derision.
    Burma Shave

    --
    Get thee glass eyes, and, like a scurvy politician, seem to see things thou dost not.--King Lear
    1. Re: Fusion Confusion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Confusion is correct. This guys damn confused. I'd love to have the problem hes talking about as that would mean that we actually have working fusion reactors. Wake me from my grave when we have one actual working power producing fusion reactor (I'm in my early 30s).

    2. Re: Fusion Confusion by bobbied · · Score: 1, Troll

      Confusion is correct. This guys damn confused. I'd love to have the problem hes talking about as that would mean that we actually have working fusion reactors. Wake me from my grave when we have one actual working power producing fusion reactor (I'm in my early 30s).

      Good Morning Sleepy head! We do have working fusion reactors, they just don't work long enough or well enough to get much energy out of them.

      --
      "File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
    3. Re:Fusion Confusion by PolygamousRanchKid+ · · Score: 2

      Yes, we were definitely confused. Back in the 80's, we were trying to do the fusion "cold".

      Instead, this guy suggests now that we do the fusion "quick" instead.

      I see an Ig Nobel coming for "quick" fusion.

      --
      Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!
    4. Re: Fusion Confusion by gewalker · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Well, since the whole purpose of fusion reactors is to make commercially useful power, it is pretty clear that we do not have a working fusion reactor by any reasonable definition.

      Despite having spent billions (22 Billion USD on hot fusion research by US alone) on the problem so far, with billions yet to come, we do not have working fusion reactors. Even ITER will just be a prototype with no power generation at all. Cost to develop commercially, unknown but bound to be a lot of money.

      The US alone has also spent around 15 Billion developing Fast Breeder reactors, and has little to show for it. Other countries have similar experience.

      Estimated cost to develop commercial LFTR reactors seems to be in the range 3 - 20 Billion USD. A commercial LFTR prototype seems to be likely 1 billion USD by most observers.

      And you still have to build the reactors -- that won't be cheap either. Every known possible solution to replacing our energy infrastructure has a large economic cost, and significant to large environmental cost as well. Kind of the way large-scale engineering works.

      Yet the cost of doing nothing will be larger yet, at least eventually. Peak fossil fuel is coming sooner or later, even if you master shale and methane hydrates with high recovery rates and limited environmental impact. There are a lot of third-world people in this world that would gladly join the first-world lifestyle which puts a severe constraint on expanding fossil fuels usage to match the growth in demand.

      Personally, the combination of LFTR and renewable sources seems most likely to me to be commercially successful by 2050. Why, because the needed development seem to be within or nearly withing the capabilities of current engineering in both cases. Engineers are very happy to deliver good enough when the perfect seems unattainable.

    5. Re: Fusion Confusion by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I find it hilarious that the supposed downside of having a future-proof source of energy is that on the unlikely occasion that a terrorist group gets their hand on plutonium, the resulting threat is going to be in the 50kt class instead of 20kt. Any larger entity most likely wouldn't have a problem with generating it for themselves anyway.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    6. Re:Fusion Confusion by rogoshen1 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      isn't that an h-bomb?

    7. Re: Fusion Confusion by rubycodez · · Score: 3, Insightful

      We do have a functioning fusion reactor. It has about four and a half billion years left worth of fuel. It pours more energy into the earth alone than a hundred civilizations could use, to say nothing of the untapped energy it pours elsewhere.

    8. Re: Fusion Confusion by lazy+genes · · Score: 1

      The cleanup cost of the current system is about 100x the energy than it produced. What could go wrong?

    9. Re: Fusion Confusion by kamapuaa · · Score: 4, Funny

      I think if there really was something like that, we would have heard of it by now.

      --
      Slashdot: providing anti-social weirdos a soapbox, since 1997.
    10. Re: Fusion Confusion by Lotana · · Score: 2

      Not to mention how much of its output is wastefully beamed into empty space!

      Need that Dyson sphere damn it!

    11. Re: Fusion Confusion by Alioth · · Score: 4, Insightful

      $22bn is only 0.03 Iraq Wars, so it's really not that much money in the grand scheme of things.

    12. Re: Fusion Confusion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Are you kidding? That s**t is a major cause of global warming.

    13. Re: Fusion Confusion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Empty space? My God! It's full of stars!

    14. Re: Fusion Confusion by QuantumPion · · Score: 1

      Despite having spent billions (22 Billion USD on hot fusion research by US alone) on the problem so far, with billions yet to come, we do not have working fusion reactors. Even ITER will just be a prototype with no power generation at all. Cost to develop commercially, unknown but bound to be a lot of money.

      Despite $10 billion spent on the Large Hadron Collider, we have yet to see any production of commercially useful quantities of antimatter. Therefore, the LHC is a boondoggle waste of money and a failure.

    15. Re: Fusion Confusion by Grizzley9 · · Score: 1

      We do have a functioning fusion reactor. It has about four and a half billion years left worth of fuel. It pours more energy into the earth alone than a hundred civilizations could use, to say nothing of the untapped energy it pours elsewhere.

      So the sun is a big fusion reactor. It's using up fuel and spitting out energy. I've never understood how you could possibly get more energy out than you put in as has been the mantra for any current earth based fusion test. Wouldn't that nullify some fundamental principles?

    16. Re: Fusion Confusion by silentcoder · · Score: 1

      >. I've never understood how you could possibly get more energy out than you put in as has been the mantra for any current earth based fusion test. Wouldn't that nullify some fundamental principles?

      No, because that sum doesn't count the energy in the fuel as "energy you put in".
      The problem right now is that the energy required to CONTAIN the reaction is HIGHER than the energy you can get out of the fuel.
      As we make the containment systems more efficient, they use less energy - eventually they will use little enough that the reactor can power the containment field and have energy left over for other uses.

      That is what is meant by "more out than in". No energy CREATION or violation of any laws happening - just you misunderstanding what the sum being done actually REFERS to.

      --
      Unicode killed the ASCII-art *
    17. Re: Fusion Confusion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Couple of traditional nuclear power plants. No, not the R&D for them - that was on the Iraq War budget level. Just the construction for them. Why would anyone expect that we could develop a new power source without about the same cost as it took to make the last major advance in power generation?

    18. Re: Fusion Confusion by deadweight · · Score: 1

      If the reason the LHC was built was to produce and sell antimatter for a profit, then it WOULD BE a total flop.

    19. Re: Fusion Confusion by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > Well, since the whole purpose of fusion reactors is to make commercially useful power

      Bingo. There are several definitions of work that you need to consider. One is "the thing does something". It's fair to say a car "works" if it can travel under its own power from one side of your yard to the other. But that's not *really* working, no one is going to buy a car that can only go 10 yards. To meet that definition of "working" it has to be able to drive around on roads at reasonable speeds for reasonable distances. But even then, the CEO of the company has yet another definition of "work", which means "it sells". For instance, the Edsel was a pretty advanced piece of engineering, which didn't sell. By any reasonable definition, it "didn't work".

      Which brings us to:

      http://matter2energy.wordpress.com/2012/10/26/why-fusion-will-never-happen/

      Single parts of a typical fusion reactor cost more than an entire wind turbine producing the same amount of power. Or natural gas turbine, or solar panels, or practically any other source of power being built today. We *know*, for a fact, that fusion will never be able to meet that last definition of "work". It is the Edsel of the energy world.

    20. Re: Fusion Confusion by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > Generation IV nuclear reactor are much closer to comercialison

      Given that fusion is infinity away from commercialization, you may wish to re-phrase your statement.

      > There are 5 designs,( LFTR is one of them) and they all promise many advantages.

      So did the Gen III designs. Yet when we actually try to build them, we ended up with massive cost and time overruns, just like the Gen II and Gen I reactors. Right now there are about a dozen Gen III's actually under construction

      The industry has an astonishing ability to blame everyone else for it's problems. In spite of a 40 year string of failures, both technical and more commonly economic, it's never their fault. It's the greenies, or the government, or the bankers, or NIMBY. But it's never that the projects are so large and complex that no one really knows how to do construction planning for it. And it couldn't possibly be a problem that the main ingredient in the construction has gone up in price five times since 2000. Yet we still hear the claims that the *next* design will be the one that fixes everything.

    21. Re: Fusion Confusion by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > Therefore, the LHC is a boondoggle waste of money and a failure.

      Yes. The LCH was built with the express intent of finding the Higgs. Why? Because we already found all the other particles in the SM. So, literally, they had nothing else to do.

      We already all agree it exists, know all of its properties, and have narrowed down its possible mass to a small range. Literally all LCH will do is add decimal points to the mass.

      Is that worth $10 billion? I don't think so.

    22. Re: Fusion Confusion by deadweight · · Score: 1

      I thought it was kind of a general purpose device that could do other things. The old FermiLab accelerator could do all manner of experiments AND they served great burgers in the lunch room :)

    23. Re: Fusion Confusion by deadweight · · Score: 1

      I looked hard and could find NO SUCH REACTOR. Signed, looking for stuff at midnight guy

    24. Re: Fusion Confusion by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > I thought it was kind of a general purpose device that could do other things.

      Oh sure, but no one was *banking* on it. The basic long and short is that if you detect the Higgs everyone gets a Nobel and a slap on the back. If you don't detect anything, you get nothing.

      So the entire project is focused on Higgs, because we already know it exists, as opposed to actually useful science like supersymetric partners which no one really has any clue if they exist or how to really look for them.

      It is entirely possible LHC will return really useful new science. It is equally likely it will not. In comparison, I *guarantee* you that the EELT will generate new science, science that the standard model can't explain. So in terms of cash-for-outcomes, it's no contest.

      > The old FermiLab accelerator could do all manner of experiments

      Indeed, and it spent the last decade of its life spending hundreds of millions measuring the top quark mass to the 6th decimal. One can imagine less useful ways to spend money, but you'll have a hard time doing so.

    25. Re: Fusion Confusion by jandrese · · Score: 1

      I guess it's a good thing after all that Congress killed the Superconducting Supercollider after all then. I mean their main argument was that it wasn't going to have a good ROI because knowledge has no value.

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    26. Re: Fusion Confusion by JohhnyTHM · · Score: 1

      I went looking for it only last night and didn't see a thing!

    27. Re: Fusion Confusion by kurzweilfreak · · Score: 1

      This article from 2 years ago and its accompanying chart make a good case that we'd have fusion already if we as a civilization seriously funded it. As you can see on the chart, actual funding towards fusion research has been laughable and of course, here we are still "30 years away".

      --

      kurzweil_freak

      5th Kyu Genbukan Ninpo/KJJR student

      Be the darkness that allows the light to shine.

    28. Re: Fusion Confusion by Boronx · · Score: 1

      Uranium reserves are so big that there's no need even for breeder reactor for centuries. We have lots of time to work on this. There's also thorium in the meanwhile.

    29. Re: Fusion Confusion by Muad'Dave · · Score: 1

      They may just envi-inpakt review of the site. Side is a hole in ground near water. Modul will be delivered by a track...

      Are you having a stroke?

      --
      Tiller's Rule: Never use a word in written form that you've only heard and never read. You will end up looking foolish.
    30. Re: Fusion Confusion by bbsalem · · Score: 1

      If anything demand for ROI stunts our overall results, they result from applying knowledge to problems whose application cannot not be anticipated. So it is possible to be too pragmatic and too concerned with immediate profit so that you, as an investor, can't see beyond the end of your nose, and that is most pragmatic business men IMHO.

      If their vision were not so narrow, they would have fulfilled the promise they made as they get all of the influence they now have politically that they would create more opportunity and less risk, they they could sustain growth and reduce the bad effects of it. This they have not done. Things have gotten worse. All we did was to give business people and investors more power to abuse the other priorities in society. It is unplanned that the Big Data problem has generality far beyond the social media data mining that draws in capital for it. That is good. The effort has greater hidden payoffs than what sells a group of investors on it. Woe that we give too much wisdom and power to markets and investors.

    31. Re: Fusion Confusion by bbsalem · · Score: 1

      Creating fusion is creative destruction of carbon based infrastructure, the capital investment made by coal, natural gas and oil companies, and they will resist any change until they have paid off their sunk costs even if it means permanently poisoning the biosphere. So, at least the public policy, politics is a dialectic between competing priorities in society, reflects the power of the carbon based industry, and so even if the technical problems can be solved, they will be delayed not by a lack of know-how, but by an active resistance to change by those who have a stake in the current infrastructure and who are owed return on their investment. That is what political economics means. Now, we could change that by edict, even if some calamity causes us to, but it will take some extreme disaster to persuade the most pragmatic financially thinking people that the cost exceeds the benefit. This is a problem when the accounting system doesn't really measure risk or when it is self preserving as many market-based entities are.

      This is the same reason why many areas of this nation have slower broadband than is possible in nations that do not have an existing infrastructure. There is disincentive for the carriers to offer faster service even if they have to charge less for it. They are still paying off the cost of the installed infrastructure and will not replace it until either the cost of doing so is less than what they owe or until what they owe is paid off.

      This is also why a Roman Emperor has a glass maker executed who had developed a recipe for unbreakable glass, because it would have upset a cartel in glass supported by the emperor.

    32. Re: Fusion Confusion by umafuckit · · Score: 1

      Ermm... The Higgs was confirmed to exist at the LHC. That needed to be done. Pinning down the exact mass matters more than you suggest it does.

    33. Re: Fusion Confusion by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > This article from 2 years ago [slashdot.org] and its accompanying chart [imgur.com] make
      > a good case that we'd have fusion already if we as a civilization seriously funded it.

      It doesn't make a difference how fast you throw money at it. If the parts that go into the reactor cost more than the economic value of the electricity that comes out, then no one is going to ever build one. And right now, that's absolutely the case.

      It's a little hard to do the math on something like ITER, which runs continually. On the other hand, it's really easy to do the math for something like NIF, where the inputs are nicely quantized. NIF burns a fuel packet that costs thousands of dollars. Under the most ridiculous future scenarios, they thing they can get that down to 50 dollars. Mind you we're not talking about the machine here, just the fuel.

      When burned perfectly, which of course we can't actually do, we expect to get about 13 MJ of fusion. We might extract 25% of that energy as electricity. That sells for about 5 cents.

      So $50 in, $0.05 out. And that's the best case scenario.

    34. Re: Fusion Confusion by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      We have one. It's pretty big, so we keep it about 93 million miles away. That seems to be a safe distance.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    35. Re: Fusion Confusion by kurzweilfreak · · Score: 1
      Obviously, everything is impossible until it isn't.

      And right now, that's absolutely the case.

      Let's stop all funding and research on everything that isn't economically feasible right now!

      --

      kurzweil_freak

      5th Kyu Genbukan Ninpo/KJJR student

      Be the darkness that allows the light to shine.

    36. Re: Fusion Confusion by Neowolf2 · · Score: 1

      Well, CERN went ahead and did the heavy lifting to discover the Higgs. So the US got the value of that discovery without having to build the SSC. It seems we came out ahead.

    37. Re: Fusion Confusion by rubycodez · · Score: 1

      No energy source makes more energy than is put in, and that's not a goal of any fusion project. Fusion fuel stores some energy that is released upon fusing (some mass is converted to energy). We merely would like to get the energy stored in a fusion fuel, without spending more energy heating or compressing the fuel to get it fusing than is in the fuel. Right now on earth we spend a hundred dollar bill on heating and compressing the fuel, and get back a penny of fusion energy, so to speak.

    38. Re: Fusion Confusion by macpacheco · · Score: 1

      The russians have been operating sodium / lead fast reactors for decades. The first commercial operational fast reactor has been operational in Russia for 40 years.
      After 40 years they deployed the second model (BN-800), achieved criticality a few months ago. The next step BN-1200 promises better economics and a scale similar to current large nuclear reactors (1200 MWe vs typical 1333 MWe of LWR/BWR/CANDU reactors).
      The story around fast reactors in the USA = Clinton/Al Gore/John Kerry killed them in the 90s for strictly political reasons.
      There were minor fast reactor incidents in France and Japan, the anti nuclear activits love to increase the magnitude of those events one thousand fold, the fact is sodium cooled IFR reactors are the closest we are to a nuclear renaissance. I would much rather have Thorium LFR reactors, but the first generation of more basic Thorium/Molten Salt reactors are a decade away from operation outside the USA. The NRC isn't even interested in producing a certification framework for Molten Salt reactors until the first company tries to certify them.

    39. Re: Fusion Confusion by macpacheco · · Score: 1

      Yeah, the LHC was funded because it's not a threat to coal and natural gas consumption.
      Nuclear OTH is a kiss of death threat to fossil fuels. No wonder the NRC is being politically driven to make as hard as possible for nuclear to advance.
      Nuclear can actually save us from climate change. Solar and Wind can get us a third of the way, but not much more than that.

    40. Re: Fusion Confusion by macpacheco · · Score: 1

      Coal kills without a coal power plant blowing up.
      Nuclear kills only on extreme case accidents where the reactor is destroyed and there's no serious secondary containment structure. (Chernobyl)
      Sodium cooled and Molten Salt cooled reactors can be walk away safe.
      Your question is 99.9999% FUD. If Nuclear were unsafe, we'd already had at least an order of magnitude more nuclear accidents.
      Stop trying to spread Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. We need lots of nuclear to avoid the worst of climate change.
      1 - Solar+Wind is a limited solution
      2 - We need to get away from coal in a few decades. Just now the largest solar PV manufacturer in the world (Yingly) finally achieved shipping of 10GW worth of panels. That's less than the largest hydro dams in the world, less effective power production than a single 4 large reactor nuclear site. Since solar doesn't produce at night, have winter and daily fluctuations, it takes over 5GW worth of panels to effectively produce as much electricity as a full size nuke (1333MWe). And depending on the latitude, solar is useless in the winter. The anti nuclear pundits ignore we don't need only a solution for electricity, we need a solution for heating too, solar+wind is extremely lousy for a full energetic solution (electricity+transportation+heating). Nuclear on the other hand can directly fuel EVs and/or produce hydrogen economically (using high temperature reactors) for FCVs. Nuclear can also produce district heating steam (used in fairly large scale in baltic countries).

    41. Re:Fusion Confusion by dublin · · Score: 1

      Well, at least we know how to do fusion that way at significantly over-unity...

      --
      "The future's good and the present is nothing to sneeze at." - Roblimo's last ./ post
    42. Re: Fusion Confusion by Meski · · Score: 1

      And Congress has a good working knowledge of wasting money, after all.

    43. Re: Fusion Confusion by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > The russians have been operating sodium / lead fast reactors for decades

      Sure, especially on their submarines. Excellent safety record there.

      > The next step BN-1200

      Riiiight. Like the Gen III reactors were going to be so much better than Gen II. Look how that turned out.

    44. Re: Fusion Confusion by Neowolf2 · · Score: 1

      France, and the other countries that went ahead with fast breeders, discovered that at current uranium prices fast breeders make no sense. Fast breeders are kind of like fusion, in that they trade higher capital cost for lower fuel costs. This is penny wise, pound foolish. Fast breeders aren't quite as bad as fusion, but they're bad enough to be impractical. BTW, France also has admitted that even reprocessing fuel from thermal reactors doesn't make economic sense. It's more economical just to store the spent fuel as is, probably in dry casks, on the off chance it might be worth reprocessing a century or two from now.

    45. Re: Fusion Confusion by kyjellyfish · · Score: 1

      The promise of fusion energy is a classic example of the "next 25-years syndrome". Whether your point of reference is the 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's, or right up through the present day, you will inevitably hear someone state that "fusion energy will be a reality in 'the next 25-years'"!!

    46. Re: Fusion Confusion by kaatochacha · · Score: 1

      He's probably trying to type it on a useless Windows 8 tablet. Everything I attempt on that monstrosity ends up like that.

    47. Re: Fusion Confusion by macpacheco · · Score: 1

      Civilian BN-600 reactors have been in operation for 40 years !
      BN-800 reactor is operational for a few months:
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B...

      It's funny those anti nuclear types that must ignore any reactors that are operating well, and focus on the ones that had any trouble.

      > Riiiight. Like the Gen III reactors were going to be so much better than Gen II. Look how that turned out.
      Nuclear power killed as many people in 60 years as natural gas kills every year.
      Nuclear power killed as many people in 60 years as coal kills every few days.

      How about a retraction ?

    48. Re: Fusion Confusion by mattack2 · · Score: 1

      BTW, France also has admitted that even reprocessing fuel from thermal reactors doesn't make economic sense.

      Can you provide a citation? I thought that with the proper type of reactor, the reprocessing step was basically economically neutral, but of course environmentally useful.

    49. Re: Fusion Confusion by Neowolf2 · · Score: 1

      See the Charpin report: “Economic forecast for nuclear power” by Jean-Michel Charpin, Benjamin Dessus, René Pellat, Report for France's Prime Minister. September 2000, Paris. Translated quote:

      The extra cost associated with reprocessing and MOX (mixed-oxide) fuel fabrication, compared to direct fabrication of UOx (uranium oxide) fuel fabrication (from enriched uranium) is not offset by savings of natural uranium through plutonium use (or savings) resulting from reduction in the direct cost of disposing of final wastes," the experts wrote. "In other words, this strategy, from the viewpoint of the utility, represents an increase in the cost of a kilowatt-hour, which appears as an obstacle to its competitiveness, an element that is increasingly intolerable in (an electricity) market opening to competition.

  2. Ready in 30 years by Moof123 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    As it always has, and likely always will be.

    1. Re:Ready in 30 years by roc97007 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      We all hope not. And past performance is not an indication of future results. (Which is a good thing, in this case.) But the past several decades have pretty much beaten all the enthusiasm out of many of us.

      Practical fusion would be a complete game changer in many different areas. Cheap enough, it would not only pretty much kill the oil industry, but may even make the "green" energy industry redundant. (Solar, wind, tides, geothermal.) Dirt cheap electricity, commonly available, would make electric vehicles a lot more interesting. Cheap centralized power would probably reverse the current tendency to diversify power and make upgrading our aging electric power infrastructure a priority. And so forth. Fusion is a very disruptive technology.

      Maybe that's the real reason we don't have it yet.

      --
      Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
    2. Re:Ready in 30 years by bobbied · · Score: 3, Insightful

      As it always has, and likely always will be.

      I don't think you are correct. Fusion seems to be quite doable to me. Right now we have some issues with materials and reactor designs, but the basic physics are in place and understood. I think we are closer than 30 years myself.

      Of all the things we spend money on, the national ignition facility seems to be one of the best scientific investments we can make and IMHO we should redouble our investments in similar research equipment.

      --
      "File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
    3. Re:Ready in 30 years by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 2

      past performance is not an indication of future results.

      That is a good rule of thumb when INVESTING. When doing science or engineering, it is nonsense. Past performance (also known as experimental results) are the ONLY reliable indicator of future results. There is little reason to expect cost effective fusion power in the next several decades.

    4. Re:Ready in 30 years by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 5, Funny

      Right now we have some issues with materials and reactor designs, but the basic physics are in place and understood.

      The basic physics was in place and understood in 1952. They just had some issues with materials and reactor designs.

    5. Re:Ready in 30 years by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Maybe that's the real reason we don't have it yet.

      No. The "real" reason we don't have fusion power yet is because it requires creating a little piece of THE SUN inside a contained vessel. That's mind bogglingly difficult.

      The folks at Lawrence Livermore took a nice big step earlier this year and nobody involves has been mysteriously murdered.

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/fusion-energy-milestone-reported-by-california-scientists/2014/02/12/f511ed18-936b-11e3-84e1-27626c5ef5fb_story.html

    6. Re:Ready in 30 years by roc97007 · · Score: 2

      Nobody needs to get murdered. You merely must create an environment where it's more profitable to research fusion energy than it is to commercialize fusion energy.

      --
      Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
    7. Re:Ready in 30 years by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I work in fusion, so I assure you that I and most of those I work with actually *agree* with this article to one extent or another. Optimistically let's look at the following: ITER is built and achieves breakeven (but no power tapping), then DEMO is built and demonstrates power to grid. You're still talking 20 billion dollars for a Fusion plant that (if built using Tokamak tech) will be fragile and prone to failure (disruptions, ELMs, and other physics issures). No company in their right mind will pay this sort of money for something that fission can do much cheaper and more reliably. IMHO fusion is the answer of the future, but will require technologies that do not yet exist (extreme radiation resistant materials, better superconductors, and so on). What the article points out is that current fusion research has the problem of being a physics solution looking for an engineering solution, where it should have been an engineering solution (i.e. aneutronic fusion) looking for a physics solution. The article, while harsh, is unfortunately very valid.

    8. Re:Ready in 30 years by BitZtream · · Score: 1

      Actually, its fairly trivial. I'm working on doing it in my back yard workshop actually. Reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F...

      Fusion is very easy to attain if you know the physics involved.

      Net energy surplus is something else entirely. Its the harvesting part that is killing it right at this moment, but much like building a workshop fusor is trivial now that its well understood, in 100 years, building a fusion reactor might not be a whole lot different. Fusion has some really beautiful requirements that make it naturally safe from a 'OMG THE PLANT IS GONNA BLOW CAPTAIN' perspective.

      --
      Persistent Volume manager for Kubernetes - https://github.com/dwimsey/openshift-pvmanager
    9. Re:Ready in 30 years by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      Past performance (also known as experimental results) are the ONLY reliable indicator of future results.

      So you're saying that the bulletproof way of making something complicated work is to employ people who did something simple that worked? I'm really not sure what your sentence is supposed to mean. I would have thought that future technological results depend mostly on inherent problems with the goals that we're not aware of yet.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    10. Re:Ready in 30 years by Rei · · Score: 5, Interesting

      You're arguing against Tokamak fusion. But what about, say, HiPER? Looks to me to be a much more comercializeable approach, yet it's still "mainstream" fusion, just a slight variant on inertial confinement ala NIF to make it much smaller / cheaper / easier to have a high repeat rate (smaller compression pulse + heating pulse rather than a NIF-style super-massive compression pulse). The only really unstudied physics aspect is how the heating pulse will interact with the highly compressed matter; NIF and pals have pretty much worked out the details of how laser compression works out. Beyond this, pretty much everything else is just engineering challenges for commercialization, such as high repeat rate lasers, high-rate hohlraum injection and targeting, etc.

      I've often thought (different topic) about how one can get half or more of fusion's advantages via fission if you change the game around a bit. Fusion is promoted on being passively safe (it's very hard to keep the reaction *going*, it really wants to stop at all times), it leads to abundant fuel supplies, and there's little radioactive waste (no long-term waste). But what about subcritical fission reactors? Aka, a natural uranium or thorium fuel target being bombarded with a spallation neutron source. Without the spallation neutrons, there's just not enough neutrons for the reaction, so the second the beam gets shut off, the reactor shuts down, regardless of what else is going on. It'd be a fast reactor, aka a breeder, aka, your available fuel supplies increase by orders of magnitude. And your long-term waste would be much, much less in a well-designed reactor. Spallation neutron sources have long been proposed as a way to eliminate long-lived nuclear waste by transmuting it into shorter-lived elements.

      --
      Musk needs a safer hobby than Twitter. Fire juggling? Cage fighting? Solo hot air balloon trips?
    11. Re:Ready in 30 years by 50000BTU_barbecue · · Score: 3, Informative

      " The "real" reason we don't have fusion power yet is because it requires creating a little piece of THE SUN inside a contained vessel. That's mind bogglingly difficult."

      Not really. The conditions for fusion inside the Sun are actually mind-bogglingly MILD. Overall, the Sun converts ~4 million tons of matter into energy every second, yet it only has the energy density of decomposing manure. It's just that the Sun is so freaking HUGE.

      The problem with getting fusion power on Earth is that we need to SURPASS by orders of magnitude the conditions at the heart of a star.

      --
      Mostly random stuff.
    12. Re:Ready in 30 years by BigFootApe · · Score: 2

      Nope. Plasma physics was very young, and nobody had truly studied plasma turbulence.

    13. Re:Ready in 30 years by rossdee · · Score: 1

      We have had a working fusion reactor for over 5 billion years, and it should keep going for a few billion more.

    14. Re:Ready in 30 years by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      This. Solar mirrors can relay the power to orbital high energy industries, or to ground based microwave antennas, at quite safe power densities and no physics breakthroughs. It's an engineering and economic problem, not a "invent new physics and invent a source of deuterium and tritium that takes less energy to refine than is recoverable from the fusion plant" sort of problem. Deuterium and tritium are *rare*, and their main sources are oil wells.

    15. Re:Ready in 30 years by tipo159 · · Score: 1

      I have been hearing that fusion is about 30 years away since I first heard about fusion power 32 years ago. So, it was funny to read TFA and see the date of when it might be available as 30-odd years away.

    16. Re:Ready in 30 years by NoKaOi · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Perhaps if Fusion is the answer, then the question is "What should we be spending money on developing?"

      Which makes more sense:
      1. Spend a trillion or so dollars (it's been about $400Billion so far, and rising) on the F-35, which won't be viable for a long time but has already been making a few rich people richer. Money comes from taxpayers, and it's the ultra-wealthy who directly benefit from the contracts who get richer. In reality our actual military power is unchanged.

      2. Spend that money instead on R&D for fusion (spend a bit of it on battery research too for electric cars/trucks). The US saves $380Billion per year on oil imports. The economy and thus quality of life for everyone improves. The rich still get richer because manufacturing and transportation costs have been reduced. F-16's, F-18's, etc and UAV's continue to give us military superiority.

    17. Re:Ready in 30 years by jo_ham · · Score: 4, Insightful

      http://i.imgur.com/sjH5r.jpg

      Pretty much covers it, even with the speculative forecasting. The money put into it is equivalent to throwing the spare change you have in your car's ashtray toward a new car fund every year.

    18. Re:Ready in 30 years by jo_ham · · Score: 5, Funny

      The main problem they had with materials is that they couldn't source enough of these small, green, flexible rectangles that they could exchange for almost anything - building materials, labour, research effort, rent, food, etc.

    19. Re:Ready in 30 years by 50000BTU_barbecue · · Score: 1

      Shoulda said POWER density.

      --
      Mostly random stuff.
    20. Re:Ready in 30 years by Pausanias · · Score: 5, Informative

      What a load of bull. Only in the core of the Sun does fusion actually occur. The temperature at the core is 15 million Kelvin and the central density is 160,000 kg/m^3. That is an energy density fucking orders of magnitude about decomposing manure. The numbers you get are by averaging over the entire Sun, which is irrelevant, because only a tiny central region of the Sun is hot enough for fusion.

      10+ years on Slashdot and in the past few years it has really been taken over by amateurs. Every hard physics / astronomy article is filled with nonsense patently FALSE comments modded up to +4. Our collective intelligence has been decreasing, friends.

      Please know what you are doing before you mod up an incorrect article... a simple Wikipedia peek will fix it for you folks.

    21. Re:Ready in 30 years by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Ok - me again .... the PP was talking about ENERGY density (W/m3). You were talking about MASS density (kg/m3). Solved?

    22. Re:Ready in 30 years by dbIII · · Score: 1

      Past performance (also known as experimental results) are the ONLY reliable indicator of future results.

      Not being twelve feet deep in horseshit implies that there has been a game change in energy production and transport.

    23. Re:Ready in 30 years by Dadoo · · Score: 1

      Maybe that's the real reason we don't have it yet.

      You're probably right about that.

      While I don't really believe this, it wouldn't surprise me if, in the future, there was a big news story about how the cold fusion guys were right, all along. Why? Just think about how the world's power structure would change, if it was real. Demand for fossil fuels would drop to maybe 10% of what it is now, almost overnight... power companies would be out of business... and so on. Portable fusion reactors would dramatically transform the world, so there's plenty of incentive for the powers that be to supress such a technology.

      --
      Sit, Ubuntu, sit. Good dog.
    24. Re:Ready in 30 years by Warbothong · · Score: 1

      Nope. Plasma physics was very young, and nobody had truly studied plasma turbulence.

      Likely because their importance was underestimated. There are plenty of fields that are very young or unresearched right now, which might turn out to play an important role.

    25. Re:Ready in 30 years by SomeoneFromBelgium · · Score: 1

      past performance is not an indication of future results.

      That is a good rule of thumb when INVESTING. [...]There is little reason to expect cost effective fusion power in the next several decades.

      You have started off with the correct line of thinking: INVESTING. If you look at the ITER project it should be obvious that their prime concerns are not fundamental science things but rather engeneering things. They are building a reactor of which they are pretty sure it will deliver reliable fusion power.
      So what is between them and commerical fusion reactors (currently foreseen for 2035)? Mainly money. So yes it's still 30 years away. And it has been for some time. Why? You said it yourself: INVESTING.

    26. Re:Ready in 30 years by 50000BTU_barbecue · · Score: 2

      OK here's a simple wikipedia peek for you my mouthy friend:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S...

      "The power production by fusion in the core varies with distance from the solar center. At the center of the Sun, theoretical models estimate it to be approximately 276.5 watts/m3,[55] a power production density that more nearly approximates reptile metabolism than a thermonuclear bomb."

      An average fission reactor gives you about 1GW of electrical power and more like 3GW thermal power. To get a 1GW of power at the density of the Sun, you'd need a a building about 150 x 150 x 150 meters, just for the power production.

      Since a fission reactor's core is much smaller than that, in many ways, we've already surpassed the conditions at the core of the Sun.

      But anyways, maybe you can learn some lessons from this, like humility, and doing some simple peeking yourself before opening your big yap and inserting both your feet tonsil-deep.

      --
      Mostly random stuff.
    27. Re:Ready in 30 years by SomeoneFromBelgium · · Score: 1

      I work in fusion,[...]. Optimistically let's look at the following: ITER is built and achieves breakeven (but no power tapping), then DEMO is built and demonstrates power to grid. You're still talking 20 billion dollars for a Fusion plant that (if built using Tokamak tech) will be fragile and prone to failure (disruptions, ELMs, and other physics issures). [...].

      That is NOT 'Optimistically looking'. The target of ITER is not break even but Q=10. That is: 10 times more energy out than in. For each 50 MW in you get 500 MW out. Of course they are hoping to get more (Q=100, Q=1000, all the way up to Q= infinity (i.e. the plasma sustains itself and only the confinement + the addition of fuel en removal of waste keeps the reaction going)).
      So breakeven is NOT optimistic.

      DEMO is then supposed to actually convert this excess heat into electricity. And 20 billion dollars is a lot of money but a fission reactor (I gather from a quick scan via google) costs somewere between 10 and 15 billion to build. So that's comparable. About the ELM's: of course the target of ITER is to overcome that issue and make the process reliable. If they cannot get that under control the reaction will stop and how would they archieve their target of Q=10?? Again you're not being optimistic at all.
      Honestly if you think so badly about fusion why waste your time on it?

    28. Re:Ready in 30 years by SomeoneFromBelgium · · Score: 1

      Good question! Head or tails??

    29. Re:Ready in 30 years by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > The folks at Lawrence Livermore took a nice big step earlier this year

      No they didn't. They used a timed implosion to improve their numbers. This caused a tiny part of the fuel to create net energy compared to the energy that reached it. Then put out a press release saying they hit break even.

      So here's the problems. One is that the method used will not work for actual *ignition*, the I in NIF. It's a hack, demo ware intended to impress. Further, they carefully chose a definition of break even that no one in their right mind would ever agree with.

      The events gave off between 13 and 17 kJ of energy.

      The input into the fuel was somewhere between 150 and 250 kJ. That's not break even.

      The input into the hologram was about 1 MJ. That's certainingly not break even.

      The output from the laser was about 4 MJ. This isn't looking good...

      The input to the lasers was over 400 MJ...

      When you put in 400,000 and get back 17, you don't call that break even.

    30. Re:Ready in 30 years by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 2

      > But what about, say, HiPER?

      I wrote the wiki article on HiPER (check the history if you don't believe me). The lead researcher has moved to LLNL, and the fast ignition method turned out to be a dead end. HiPER still exists on paper as what would best be described as a laser development effort, but for all intents it's dead. The entire fast ignition field has moved on to another holy grail, although there's continuing effort in Japan as their experiments were furthest along.

      Simply put, laser-based ICF cannot ever work economically. We have suspected this since the 1960s. There was a brief period during the early 1970s when it appeared the driver energies were low enough and isotopic smoothness was not all that critical, so we might be able to build one. By the 1980s it was clear both of these were not true, and that you needed extremely powerful highly smoothed laser systems, along with extremely expensive highly machined holoraums.

      What that means is that even if you get the energy output to be higher than the input, and we're several orders of mag away, the amount of *money* you burn is higher than what you get back out. Every time. And we know enough about the instabilities of the implosion process to say that that's just the way it has to be:

      http://matter2energy.wordpress.com/2013/04/21/fusion-the-power-of-wishful-thinking/

    31. Re:Ready in 30 years by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > The target of ITER is not break even but Q=10

      That's still break-even. And that's not what he said anyway, he said "achieves break-even (but no power tapping)", in the context that "DEMO is built and demonstrates power to grid".

      Do you deny that ITER is not tapping power? Let's see...

      > DEMO is then supposed to actually convert this excess heat into electricity

      It appears you agree, and are simply quibbling over one possible interpretation of the statement "achieves break-even". Note that any Q >1 is "achieves break-even", so the original statement is perfectly correct.

      > About the ELM's: of course the target of ITER is to overcome that issue and make the process reliable

      As was the purpose of every design before it; to overcome [insert problem here] and make the process reliable. Given the 65-year string of failures in this regard would it be terribly surprising if ITER didn't manage to fix ELMs?

    32. Re:Ready in 30 years by Zanthor · · Score: 1

      What is an 'ashtray'?

      --

      Zanthor

    33. Re:Ready in 30 years by Neowolf2 · · Score: 1

      In particular, it's by Lawrence Lidsky, who went on to be Todd Rider's thesis advisor. Rider showed in his thesis that aneutronic fusion (particularly based on non-Maxwellian plasmas) wasn't realistic. Lidsky switched over to fission reactor research, and pursued that for the rest of his life. Rider left nuclear energy entirely (what was he to do after his thesis basically chopped off an entire major branch of design space), changed fields, and has been doing interesting work in biology.

    34. Re:Ready in 30 years by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      I'm older than you. I remember the days when it was only twenty years away!

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    35. Re:Ready in 30 years by doublebackslash · · Score: 1

      I really want fusion to happen, but this gives me pause: http://matter2energy.wordpress...

      Extremely well written and by an expert in the field. Perhaps a novel approach can push past these limitations, but I'm with you on being low on enthusiasm. Still, research, test, explore!

      --
      md5sum /boot/vmlinuz
      d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e /boot/vmlinuz
    36. Re:Ready in 30 years by dublin · · Score: 1

      Good of you to call BS, now I'm going to... We quite simply DO NOT KNOW what goes on inside the Sun - we only see the outer layers, and are completely guessing about what's inside - your temperature and density figures are most likely wrong, especially if certain uniformitarian assumptions turn out not to hold...

      Now, to be fair, those guesses *could* be right, but I kinda doubt it - the universe has this bizarre tendency to be, as Haldane said, "not only queerer than we imagine, but queerer than we *can* imagine"...

      --
      "The future's good and the present is nothing to sneeze at." - Roblimo's last ./ post
    37. Re:Ready in 30 years by dublin · · Score: 1

      I am certainly no fan of the F-35 - I think it's one of the worst military boondoggles ever - a plane that is staggeringly bad at everything it does but sucking money and hollowing out American airpower.

      That said, it has some limited utility. Spending that money of F-35's gets us F-35s no matter how bad they suck.

      On the other hand, there's no real reason to expect that a terabuck thrown at fusion would get us anything at all. Personally, I think lottery odds are better than a big government funded program sure to be rife with corruption actually solving the world's energy problems...

      --
      "The future's good and the present is nothing to sneeze at." - Roblimo's last ./ post
    38. Re:Ready in 30 years by SomeoneFromBelgium · · Score: 1

      My point was: Q>1 is not an optimistic view on ITER. Q=infinity is.

      And yes energetic breakeven has NOTHING to do with putting power to the grid. ITER simply hasn't got the means (turbines etc.) to convert the excess heat comming out of the reactor into electricity. So when you interpret breakeven 'as power (from the grid) in versus power (on the grid) out' ITER cannot archieve breakeven. Breakeven in the context of ITER can only be interpreted as Q=1. And that is NOT 'optimistically looking at ITER'.

      Assuming that ITER and DEMO cannot overcome the instabilities is not an optimistic view either. Especially if you know that JET and other experimental reactors are succesfully managing these instabilities. That being said: ITER will investigate the instabilities and find out exactly when and were they occur so that they can be made absent in future designs like DEMO. ITER has plans to even create these instabilities on demand for the single purpose of studying the phenomenon. For that the walls of ITER are designed to withstand about 3 000 instabilities (or disruptions) and many parts of the vacuum chamber can be replaced for that purpose.

      My last point was: why does anyone 'work on fusion' if he has such a limited confidence that the biggest experiment in the field will work. He states that he looks 'optimistically' at ITER and DEMO and then continues to assume that they will both fail. If ITER does not reach Q=10 it is officially a failure. Q=10 is their official target. If DEMO does not give reliable power due to disruptions it is a failure too. Since proving that fusion power can be done relibably and economically it the sole purpose of DEMO.

      And yes ITER is an experiment. Its not a working prototype but it's not a research for fundamental science either. It can be best compared to Chicago Pile-1. The first fission reactor build at the university of Chicago. It too had no means to convert the excess power into electricity but it showed that controllable fission power was possible.

    39. Re:Ready in 30 years by strikethree · · Score: 1

      That is an interesting graph. To summarize what it says, it says that we should not waste any more money studying fusion. Rather sad, but there you have it. They even said it themselves. :(

      --
      "Someone needs to talk to the tree of liberty about its ghoulish drinking problem." by ohnocitizen
    40. Re:Ready in 30 years by 50000BTU_barbecue · · Score: 1

      Are you an Electric Universe supporter?

      --
      Mostly random stuff.
    41. Re:Ready in 30 years by jo_ham · · Score: 1

      It only says that if you're from the "MBA-style, profit now at the expense of long term viability" mindset, but that is all too common on slashdot these days.

      For such a tiny amount of money too.

      Put it this way, if we funded fusion research at 3 billion dollars per year for 40 years (120 billion dollars) it would still come way under the annual spending on oil exploration alone (300 to 400 billion). That's one year's exploration only - that doesn't cover the cost of actually recovering and refining what you find.

      Or, if you want to pay for it with purely DoD funds, 3 billion dollars per year is 0.6% of the 2015 defense budget.

      In other words, when you look at the *actual* funding over the past 40 years, the amount is lost in the noise at the bottom of any graph.

    42. Re:Ready in 30 years by Dr_Barnowl · · Score: 1

      Deuterium and tritium are *rare*, and their main sources are oil wells.

      You're mixing them up with helium, which is extracted from a fraction of natural gas.

      Deuterium is very common, it just requires effort to extract.

      Tritium is the rare one. Less than 300kg of it has ever been made. It's radioactive, so it disappears. There's probably less than 100kg of it in the world now.

    43. Re:Ready in 30 years by jwhitener · · Score: 1

      Or spend a trillion or so dollars on modernizing the grid, energy storage (molten salt, pumped hydro, batteries, etc..) and solar panels/wind turbines. Using that money to incentivize the market, and I bet our dirty energy issues would be fixed in a couple decades.

      Or heck, why not both. 1 trillion for Fusion and 1 trillion for renewables. We are already 14+ trillion in debt... whats a couple more, especially when spent on something actually worthwhile.

  3. Did I miss the breakthrough? by sphealey · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Did I miss the part where the human race had a miraculous breakthrough in fusion technology? Even setting aside the expected issues with neutron radiation (sorry, no Mr. Fusion Home Energy Kit) there isn't any fusion technology today that is even close to breakeven on an experimental basis. As for commercial operations...

    1. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      What you've missed about fusion technology could fill a journal. Maybe even more than one.

    2. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Yup. The rest of us have been enjoying cheap and clean energy from our fusion reactors for a while now. Sorry you missed it... we were going to tell you, but got distracted piloting our flying cars and jetpacks all day.

    3. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by sphealey · · Score: 1

      " If JET can reach break-even point, there’s a very good chance that the massive ITER reactor currently being built in France will be able to obtain the holy grail of everlasting green power generation: self-sustaining fusion.

      Dozens and dozens of journal summaries with that miraculous word 'if'

      sPh

    4. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by sphealey · · Score: 1

      Darn. Just this once I was hoping to be one of the Kool Kids.

      sPh

    5. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by roc97007 · · Score: 1

      I know this is an unpopular viewpoint, but I'm beginning to think that Tokamak is a way to funnel tax dollars into researcher's pockets. If we ever do achieve practical commercial fusion, we may look back at the Tokamak like modern pilots look back at the manned ornithopter attempts of the 1800's.

      But if the Tokamak ever is made to be commercially viable, we're probably talking about a few gigantic power generators, which would mean we probably need to do something about that decades-old power line infrastructure.

      --
      Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
    6. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by bobbied · · Score: 2

      It's not a "physics" problem to solve, it's an engineering problem. The Physics are fairly well understood. What we need now is the equipment to be engineered which will require some new engineered materials and a few engineering breakthroughs..

      --
      "File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
    7. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by sphealey · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Fusion power research is being funded at least $20 billion/year worldwide, and has been for over 20 years. If you can point to some concrete areas where more cash would help?

      sPh

    8. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by apraetor · · Score: 1

      They talk about the break-even point because it's the key to fusion power. If you can find a thermodynamically-viable way to accomplish that, then generating excess power to run our world is just a matter of tuning (unless a new problem crops up) the system to provide some excess power, even if it's not very much. Any amount of excess will be useful, because you can scale up the plant to whatever size is necessary to generate useful quantities of excess power. I'm a ChemE, not Physics post-doc, so correct me if I'm mistaken. :)

    9. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by styrotech · · Score: 1

      Did I miss the part where the human race had a miraculous breakthrough in fusion technology?

      Maybe not miraculous breakthroughs, but we've been getting better at directly utilising our only currently usable fusion reactor.

      Then again it is ultimately responsible for nearly all our other energy sources too.

    10. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      I'm pinning all my hopes on this project.

      From the updates:

      In a July 23 editorial, Nature magazine has joined the calls to redirect fusion funding to aneutronic fusion—fusion that produces no radioactive waste. Speaking of the difficulties facing the ITER tokamak program, the editorial urged that, “Given these realities, the prudent course for the world’s funding agencies would be to support research into alternative fusion fuels, such as deuterium-helium-3, or proton-boron-11—which require higher temperatures to ignite, but produce very few neutrons—as well as alternative reactor designs that would be simpler, cheaper and more in line with the kind of plant that power companies might buy.”

      Nature specifically urged that one of the projects that should be considered for government funding is “Lawrenceville Plasma Physics in Middlesex, New Jersey, which is trying to exploit a configuration known as a dense plasma focus to build an extremely compact reactor that does not emit neutrons.” Read more here.

    11. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      "Fusion power research is being funded at least $20 billion/year worldwide, and has been for over 20 years".
      WTF? Where did you get that number? US funding has been less than $500 million per year in that time frame (http://hardware.slashdot.org/story/12/04/11/0435231/mit-fusion-researchers-answer-your-questions). Where is the other $19.5+ billion being spent?

    12. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by khallow · · Score: 1

      we're probably talking about a few gigantic power generators, which would mean we probably need to do something about that decades-old power line infrastructure.

      I suggest crossing that bridge when we come to it. If a few gigantic power generators turn out to be much cheaper than alternatives, then that can fund a renewal of the power line infrastructure to support them.

    13. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by rubycodez · · Score: 1

      order of magnitude off, it's about $2 billion per year total.

    14. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by ultranova · · Score: 1

      Did I miss the part where the human race had a miraculous breakthrough in fusion technology?

      Does it matter? Fusion is still nuclear power, so even if we had a working reactor right now we couldn't use it.

      --

      Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

    15. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by jo_ham · · Score: 1

      They never ran JET above Q = 1.0 because they were doing other experiments with it (mainly relating to material research on what to make the walls out of that don't become brittle due to neutron flux over time) but the data that was collected was conclusive enough that they felt confident that they could if they wanted to.

      As it stands, they reached the point where the time and energy is better spent on the ITER experiment as the next stage of the research.

      Of course, the funding is still tiny trickle compared to what it really ought to be, but such as it is.

    16. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by jo_ham · · Score: 2

      If that is the real goal of the Tokamak then they're doing a hilariously poor job of it - the funding is minuscule.

    17. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by EthanBernard · · Score: 1

      I know this is an unpopular viewpoint, but I'm beginning to think that Tokamak is a way to funnel tax dollars into researcher's pockets. If we ever do achieve practical commercial fusion, we may look back at the Tokamak like modern pilots look back at the manned ornithopter attempts of the 1800's.

      But if the Tokamak ever is made to be commercially viable, we're probably talking about a few gigantic power generators, which would mean we probably need to do something about that decades-old power line infrastructure.

      You are correct. My old physics advisor was a nuclear theorist who knew the fusion crowd in the seventies. He told me "Stay away from fusion. If you want to lie for a living, become a lawyer. It pays much better."

    18. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by Jeremi · · Score: 1

      What you don't know about fusion
      Could fill a shelf of books
      You are the type of man who looks
      For new miraculous advances
      But overestimates the chances
      Of breaking-even on the power flow
      You only have to open up your mouth to show
      What you don't know
      About!
      Fusion!

      --


      I don't care if it's 90,000 hectares. That lake was not my doing.
    19. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by SomeoneFromBelgium · · Score: 1

      What you missed is this: ITER is planning on archieving Q=10 (10 more energy OUT than IN) in 2027. But a reactor that produces current on the grid (DEMO) for 2040.
      Could we accelerate that? YES! If we increase funding massively this could be done much more quickly and we could have the first current in the grid by 2030 or so.

    20. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > about $2 billion per year total.

      Which, at current prices, gets you about 2 GWp worth of wind or 1 GWp of PV.

      So if we continue for another 30 years and a miracle occurs and we get a working design, we would have already installed 120 GWp of wind turbines for that cash.

      Wind turbines actually work, which is why they're the fastest growing source of electricity ever. Fusion almost certainly will never work, economically at least, and certainly won't be available for decades. And even if it does, by the time we have them, wind turbines will be even cheaper, grid distribution will be a solved problem, and we'll probably have a day's worth of storage in all our homes.

      So how much should we be dumping into this latest idea to centralize the grid? Explain your answer without resorting to miracles or handwavium.

    21. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by Neowolf2 · · Score: 1

      They talk about the break-even point because it's the key to fusion power.

      No, it's only the first step to fusion power. The real killer is going to be making a practical, reliable, economically competitive reactor. No one knows how to do that. At this point, tokamaks and ICF, even if they achieved breakeven, would be practical dead ends.

    22. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by rubycodez · · Score: 1

      And your 120GWp wind is only worth 33 GW continuous.

      Averaged out, human civilization uses 15 TW continuously. Spending 60 billion total to have a way to produce a large chunk of that $15 trillion worth of power is chump change.

    23. Re:Did I miss the breakthrough? by rubycodez · · Score: 1

      and that's $15 trillion *per year* worth of electricity.

  4. Fast? TRANS-FUSION! by Jeremiah+Cornelius · · Score: 1, Funny

    Transfusion, transfusion
    My red corpsuckles are in mass confusion
    Never, never, never gonna speed again...
    Pass the crimson to me, Jimson!

    --
    "Flyin' in just a sweet place,
    Never been known to fail..."
    1. Re:Fast? TRANS-FUSION! by smittyoneeach · · Score: 1

      WTF the Burma Shave, man?

      --
      Get thee glass eyes, and, like a scurvy politician, seem to see things thou dost not.--King Lear
  5. Re:Who needs oil? by Jeremiah+Cornelius · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Fusion would break the stranglehold of petro-exporting countries in the Middle East as well as belligerent exporters like Russia and Iran.

    Then? The Banking vampire elite will need to generate new, ethnically-rationalized hate-conflict to keep us all at each other's throats - instead of removing their boot from our collective face.

    --
    "Flyin' in just a sweet place,
    Never been known to fail..."
  6. Fusion is not the answer by ArcadeMan · · Score: 1

    The answer is magnets. Lots and lots of magnets.

    1. Re:Fusion is not the answer by bobbied · · Score: 2

      Funny because the Fusion solution requires magnets, really strong ones.

      --
      "File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
    2. Re:Fusion is not the answer by Rei · · Score: 1
      --
      Musk needs a safer hobby than Twitter. Fire juggling? Cage fighting? Solo hot air balloon trips?
    3. Re:Fusion is not the answer by tomhath · · Score: 1

      Not magnets, batteries. If you have enough batteries you don't need any power generation.

  7. The power of the future... by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 2

    Fusion power is roughly 20 years away from being viable...and has been for the last 40 years LOL.

    Seriously, I'll start worrying about proliferation risks when a commercially viable fusion reactor DESIGN is created. Building one -- assuming it's ever viable to begin with -- would take years, which is plenty of time to address proliferation concerns before it came online.

    --
    In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
    1. Re:The power of the future... by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

      That pretty much sums it up. There is no reason to have any expectation fusion will be viable in our lifetimes, and its not clear what we would really learn from ITER that would change that prospectus.

    2. Re:The power of the future... by Lennie · · Score: 1

      I'm starting to think it would be easier to solve the energy storage problem than get a working fusion power.

      Because it looks like solar is on a similar exponential improvement cycle as Moore's law:

      https://www.google.com/search?...

      --
      New things are always on the horizon
    3. Re:The power of the future... by Animats · · Score: 1

      Fusion power is roughly 20 years away from being viable...and has been for the last 40 years LOL.

      Longer than that. Fusion power has been hyped since the 1950s. From the article:

      Nuclear fusion could come into play as soon as 2050

      Heard that one before.

      Fusion power has some real problems. After half a century of trying, nobody has a long-running sustained fusion reactor, even an experimental one. The whole "inertial fusion" thing turned out to be a cover for bomb research. There's a lot of skepticism about whether ITER will do anything useful. It's not clear that a fusion reactor will be cost-effective even with a near-zero fuel cost. (Fission reactors already have that problem.) It's really frustrating.

      Fusion reactors are a pain to engineer. They have a big vacuum chamber with high-energy particles reacting inside, and huge cryogenic magnets outside. This is far more complicated than a fission reactor, and is why the cost of ITER keeps going up.

    4. Re:The power of the future... by bobbied · · Score: 1

      That's the ITER's goal. Construction has started.

      Seriously, we may be 20 years out yet, but I don't think you have a full grasp on where we really are on this. We have a design and are working the details of the materials and understanding how the materials will react to the neutron flux created by the reaction. There are still valid questions about how viable this design will be, but it's fairly certain that it will work and produce more energy than it takes to get the reaction going.

      --
      "File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
    5. Re:The power of the future... by jo_ham · · Score: 1

      Of course, it's extremely hard to do it when the funding is so small.

      That's why it's eternally 20 years away. It's remarkable what we've actually learned despite the issue of funding it with pocket change for 40 years.

    6. Re:The power of the future... by Alioth · · Score: 1

      No. Fusion power is roughly $80bn of research away. The problem is the funding has been so meagre that we will never actually reach the goal at current rates of funding. If $80bn sounds a lot, it's not - it's only 0.11 Iraq Wars. We saw fit to spend around $750bn (at a highly conservative estimate - that's the US DOD's own estimate) on bombing Iraq, but we don't see fit to spend just more than 1/10th of that amount on freeing ourselves from dependence on that entire region forever.

    7. Re:The power of the future... by Neowolf2 · · Score: 1

      This confuses cause and effect. The lack of funding is caused by the extremely tenuous case for fusion, not the other way around. The real issue with fusion is not that too little has been invested in it, but that too much has been wasted on it. The fusion budgets should be greatly reduced, or even eliminated.

    8. Re:The power of the future... by jo_ham · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure how you can greatly reduce the budget for fusion power - it's virtually zero as it is.

  8. Big fusion reactor unnecessary for boosting by erice · · Score: 4, Informative

    Fusion reactors capable of producing net power are big, or seem to be being as we haven't actually built one yet.

    However, if you just want to produce tritium for a boosted fission bomb, you don't need to generate net power. A farnsworth fusor will do and they are small and inconspicuous.

    As for deuterium: Deuterium is produced for industrial, scientific and military purposes, by starting with ordinary water—a small fraction of which is naturally-occurring heavy water—and then separating out the heavy water by the Girdler sulfide process, distillation, or other methods.

    So, no point in securing your fusion reactor because the bad guys don't have any real motivation to break in. At least, not to steal anything.

    1. Re:Big fusion reactor unnecessary for boosting by FutureRobertOverlord · · Score: 1

      More importantly, it also depends on the design of fusion plants, since the current plan with tokamak-style magnetic confinement fusion reactors (like ITER) is to use lithium to produce tritium that will be consumed in the reactor. There might be more of a risk associated with inertial confinement (like the NIF), but I think you're right that the proliferation concerns from fusion are less worrisome, particularly when compared to a fast breeder fission reactor.

    2. Re:Big fusion reactor unnecessary for boosting by delt0r · · Score: 1

      Replying to this and undoing mods. But man this rubbish has got to stop. A fansworth fusor can at most fuse 10^9 atoms per second. 1 gram of T is .5x10^23. You would need to run it for 15000 years!

      --
      If information wants to be free, why does my internet connection cost so much?
  9. The word is "neutrons." by localroger · · Score: 1

    Although there is some lip service to seeking "aneutronic" fusion the truth is that fusion is so hard to achieve that we don't have the luxury of being picky about the reactions we aim for, and all the practical ones generate a metric fuckton of neutrons, enough to be lethal even on the other side of thick shielding, enough to induce dangerous secondary radioactivity in many elements, and enough to knock enough atoms out of their place in metal crystalline lattices to seroiusly weaken structures made from elements that dont' become radioactive too. It's a serious enough problem that the first and most important clue that Pons and Fleischmann had not achieved cold fusion was that they were still alive.

    --
    Brackets contain world's first nanosig, highly magnified:[.]
  10. Re:Fusion Has Already Failed by sphealey · · Score: 1

    Yeah, I'm always excited about garage experimenters running a 500 MW neutron source away from the heavy hand of the government.

  11. Re:Who needs oil? by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 1

    Fusion would break the stranglehold of petro-exporting countries in the Middle East as well as belligerent exporters like Russia and Iran.

    You're assuming said fusion plants would be radically cheaper to construct and operate than existing fission plants...something the anti-nuclear activists would probably complicate despite the obvious benefits of fusion over fission. Never underestimate the public fear of the word "nuclear" even if the processes involved are ridiculously different.

    I can hear the rallying cry now: "They want to build a plant that works the same way as a thermonuclear bomb! Do you want a nuclear bomb IN YOUR BACKYARD???"

    People are still terrified of fluoride in their water. Can you imagine their reponse to the above?

    --
    In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
  12. We put all our eggs into the ITER basket. by quax · · Score: 1

    Other interesting and scientifically sound approaches are limping along on pitiful drips of venture money e.g. General Fusion.

    And while some public money goes into Polywell research, it's produced on a dime when compared to ITER.

    Don't mean to knock the work that's done to advance the Tokamak design, but it shouldn't be the only game in town.

    1. Re:We put all our eggs into the ITER basket. by quax · · Score: 1

      With regards to the Polywell design you clearly either have not read this paper, or must think they made up their results.

      As to General Fusion, they are hardly the only ones looking into magnetized target fusion (just the most ambitious ones) - so I fail to see how you comment even applies there.

    2. Re:We put all our eggs into the ITER basket. by quax · · Score: 1

      Too funny. So you really did not look at the paper. Arxiv is a pre-print archive. The notion that these nine authors spanning two companies, one European university, Los Alamos and the US Navy will not manage to get this published in a per-reviewed journal is rather cute.

    3. Re:We put all our eggs into the ITER basket. by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > With regards to the Polywell design

      No one, and I mean no one, expects the Polywell will escape the Ritter issues.

      The team has done some fantastic hand-waving to pretend it doesn't effect them. Until *proven* otherwise, it does. That's the way science works.

      And if you think this is unfair, you *really* need to go read the history of fusion research. For instance, back in '54 Teller gave a talk at the Gun Club where he outlined a problem and noted that any reactor design that used fields shaped like *this* probably wouldn't work. Many of the people in the audience (or all of them) had reactors with fields shaped like *that*. They all went away and came up with excuses as to why Teller's concern didn't effect them. Guess what, it did, and they all failed.

      So I'll believe the polywell has escaped Ritter's bremsstrahlung concerns when I see the polywell escape Ritter's bremsstrahlung concerns.

      > As to General Fusion

      Mechanical MTF. Good luck with that.

    4. Re:We put all our eggs into the ITER basket. by quax · · Score: 1

      No one, and I mean no one, expects the Polywell will escape the Ritter issues.

      Except those who continue working on it. Cusp confinement has been theorized but to my knowledge never experimentally confirmed until these results came in. They may very well be overoptimistic with regards to having any chance in approaching thermalization in the center of their reactor, but given that they now have an experiment going with fairly decent confinement it seems warranted to establish to what extend Ritter's concern will haunt this design.

      Plasma dynamics are very difficult to model and while Ritter's conjecture is plausible it nevertheless makes some assumptions that may not hold in the actual experiment.

      You may call this hand waving, but the best way to establish this is an actual experiment. This, after all, is also the way that science works.

    5. Re:We put all our eggs into the ITER basket. by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

      > Except those who continue working on it.

      Maybe. But there's a long history of people working on projects they know are going nowhere while keeping up a brave face. I'm sure you've worked on a few yourself.

      > You may call this hand waving, but the best way to establish this is an actual experiment.

      Absolutely! Which is why I brought up the Teller example. The pattern is *exactly* analogous.

    6. Re:We put all our eggs into the ITER basket. by dublin · · Score: 1

      Look, this isn't about a lack of money - well it is, but the reason there's no money there is because there's NO reason for anyone (govt or private) to bet tons of money on somthing that has so little realistic chance of working. If fusion looked doable, we'd have people throwing money around like crazy, and we'd have billionaires tripping all over each other to be the Rockefeller of fusion. It's laughable that the tinfoil hat folks see a conspiracy to protect "big oil" - I work with some oil investors, and I can assure you that if they really thought for a second that they could invest in an alternative that could *really* economically displace oil, gas, and nuclear, they'd do it in a heartbeat.

      --
      "The future's good and the present is nothing to sneeze at." - Roblimo's last ./ post
    7. Re:We put all our eggs into the ITER basket. by quax · · Score: 1

      You are barking up the wrong tree.

      Of course there is no conspiracy and I very much appreciate that Jeff Bezos invests into General Fusion.

      What I find problematic is that ITER crowds out other fusion research due to its cost overuns. For instance there are now only 1 1 1/2 positions allocated to the Shiva star device (a machine GF could put to good use for plasma compression experiments). This is just enough money to prevent a mothballing of the machine, but not enough to actually get some research done.

      This is not conspiracy but just how the world works. As ITER absorbs more money the overall public budget doesn't grow, and government is too inflexible to allow for private partnership (especially with, god forbid, a Canadian company).

  13. Re:Who needs oil? by prisoner-of-enigma · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Why would they need to create a new hate conflict? There's plenty of that to go around as is. Arab vs. Jew, black vs. white, East vs. West...it's not like conflict wasn't around before banking cartels, you know.

    --
    In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, Make us your slaves, but feed us. - Fyodor Dostoyevsky
  14. Fusion gnomes by Snufu · · Score: 1

    Step 1: Collect hydrogen
    Step 2: ?
    Step 3: Profit!

  15. I have a compelling case for an alternative by rdelsambuco · · Score: 1

    Magic pixie hair. As everyone knows, magic pixie hair, if harvested correctly, could supply all the energy needs of an exponentially growing global economy for centuries, nay, millenia. Engineers just need to figure out how to find the pixes, and harvest their hair. I'm a compelling idea man.

    --
    I comment occasionally so that I can mod others -1 overrated or -1 offtopic.
  16. Ionization neutralization problem by brambus · · Score: 1

    I'd really appreciate if somebody with deeper fusion knowledge could take a look at this paper: http://www.aneutronicfusion.or...
    It's possible that it's wrong, but if true, it would mean that tokamak fusion is fundamentally impossible (which would suck for ITER). The paper is by a bunch of alternative fusion research approach guys, so it's possible they're not objective here (not cold fusion, that's bunk).

  17. a few grams of tritium a problem? by slew · · Score: 2

    If it were only just getting a few grams of tritium, it isn't that hard to do. On the scale of a few grams you can just get something like this baby and hide it in a commercial seawater desalinization plant to get a few grams after a bit of time (and energy)...

    Of course that isn't the most economical way to do it. I think a common military-industrial method today is to put lithium control rods into an experimental-sized fission reactor and collect the tritium gas that comes off... Still no fusion necessary...

  18. Re:Fusion Has Already Failed by geekoid · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The government does 10's of thousands of project a year. ON time, within budget with little waste.

    the ITER is using extremely cutting edge experimental reactor. Of course there are unknowns.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  19. Re:Fusion Has Already Failed by penguinoid · · Score: 1

    Nevertheless, fusion would make for an awesome ship engine. It's probably worth studying just for that.

    --
    Don't waste your vote! Vote for whoever you want, unless you live in a swing state it won't matter anyways
  20. Re:Fusion Has Already Failed by bobbied · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Look at ITER: $20B and rising, it will only make 500 MW(th) -- six times less thermal energy than a 1 GW(e) fission reactor -- and it doesn't even include the advanced materials needed to withstand commercial reactor levels of integrated neutron flux.

    Well, that's ITER's point now isn't it? We know what is required to make fusion work, we just don't know how long we can sustain a reaction because we do not understand how the large neutron flux will affect the materials in the container and we still have difficulties maintaining the containment. It's an engineering problem now, not something that is clearly impossible.

    IMHO, investments in such experiments should be expanded, by both government and industry. Just like getting a man on the moon, We need a JFK'esk commitment to making this work.

    --
    "File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
  21. Fusion utilisation is a threshold event. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    We either pass it or we pass away, so yeah better get the sucker working ASAP.

  22. Re:Who needs oil? by R3d+M3rcury · · Score: 1

    It would also destroy the value of the dollar, which is boosted by OPEC.

  23. Re:Who needs oil? by MrKaos · · Score: 2

    Why would they need to create a new hate conflict? There's plenty of that to go around as is. Arab vs. Jew, black vs. white, East vs. West...it's not like conflict wasn't around before banking cartels, you know.

    Sure, banking cartels just turned it into business practice.

    --
    My ism, it's full of beliefs.
  24. Huh? by PPH · · Score: 1

    the small amount of "booster" elements (tritium and deuterium) found in fusion power could provide would-be proliferators what they need to boost the yield of fission bombs

    The primary issue of proliferation is getting the bomb grade uranium in the first place. Fission power by itself doesn't lead to weapons proliferation so long as enrichment processes are restricted to producing only 'reactor grade' fuel. Given a source of weapons grade material, the availability of deuterium/tritium boosters aren't going to make a damned bit of difference to rogue states trying to build bombs. Crappy, low yield bombs will suit their purposes just fine.

    --
    Have gnu, will travel.
    1. Re:Huh? by nmr_andrew · · Score: 1

      I've got to basically agree. Furthermore, while tritium tends to be pretty strongly regulated because it's (mildly) radioactive, deuterium is relatively easy to come by. The natural abundance of deuterium is ~1% of all hydrogen. You can separate D2O out of water by distillation, or you can skip this step and just buy it. I can buy a kilogram of 99.8% D2O for $300-400; that's with a discount, but full list is under $1k, well within the means of any determined terrorist. If you hydrolyze that, about 20% of D2O by weight is deuterium, so getting a few grams to "boost" your bomb via hydrolysis would be trivial, ignoring the part where you have to prevent the deuterium + oxygen from dramatically recombining.

      Basically, the terrorist angle is a red herring from someone with an anti-fusion agenda.

  25. So badly misguided by DerekLyons · · Score: 5, Insightful

    That has to be one of the most misguided ideas I've ever seen...

    Worry about using deuterium and tritium being used to boost the output of a fission weapon is like worrying about whether a heavily armed maniac's getaway car can do 120mph rather than 115mph. The basic problem isn't the speed of the get away car. If a proliferator can get their hands on sufficient U235 or Pu in the first place, they're 99.99996% of the way towards their goal - the extra .00003 provided by the availability of deuterium and tritium is all but meaningless because when it comes to proliferators it's the mere fact that they have a weapon in the first place that's the problem. That they can now build two or more, or increase the yield of a single weapon simply doesn't count for much when even a low kiloton range weapon is sufficient for their needs. (Which is deterrence generally, or failing that attacks against non military area targets. They aren't trying to crack open Cheyenne Mountain.)

  26. Re: Who needs oil? by O('_')O_Bush · · Score: 1

    Sure, there will be nuts, by never underestimate the power of cheap.

    --
    while(1) attack(People.Sandy);
  27. Re:Who needs oil? by MrKaos · · Score: 1

    Can you imagine their reponse to the above?

    So why are you putting the FUD out there? Sure people are ignorant, but It's not as if people can't know the difference between addition and division.

    --
    My ism, it's full of beliefs.
  28. Re:Fusion Has Already Failed by MrKaos · · Score: 1

    Look at ITER: $20B and rising, it will only make 500 MW(th) -- six times less thermal energy than a 1 GW(e) fission reactor -- and it doesn't even include the advanced materials needed to withstand commercial reactor levels of integrated neutron flux.

    International Thermonuclear *Experimental* Reactor

    --
    My ism, it's full of beliefs.
  29. Re:One word... by jmd · · Score: 1

    Yes. Thorium. Should have been done long ago.

  30. Re:Fusion Has Already Failed by rogoshen1 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    That's the kind of thinking that led navies across the world to build dreadnaughts. which could be sunk by a couple of airplanes dropping torpedoes.
    Fusion in it's current configuration, and our current state of knowledge, sure it's a joke.

    But, going with the airplane example; you're looking at the Wright Brother's first plane, and saying "nope, will never be useful, look at it, it can only fly 3 feet off the ground for a couple hundred yards". Solar panels 30-40 years ago were laughable as well mind you.

    Knowledge has a way of building on itself in an exponential fashion. Once the first working (energy positive) reactor is built, you can bet it will be only a matter of months before that design gets improved upon by a thousand different scientists.

    But yes, short-sighted people like yourself are what drive the issues in the US. If it doesn't go from drawing board to mature product instantaneously it's clearly a waste of time, effort, and money.

  31. Re:They can produce tritium at fission plants by PvtVoid · · Score: 2

    Aren't uranium (as opposed to plutonium) bombs pretty bulky?

    Not really. The critical mass for U235 is 50 kg or so, while for PU240 it's about 40 kg. Moreover, a U235 bomb is way easier to make, because it doesn't have a predetonation problem like plutonium. Just take two hunks of U235 and drive one into the other with an explosive charge. Bang. City gone. This was the way Little Boy worked. It was so simple they didn't even bother to test it before dropping it on Hiroshima. You can't do that with PU240: the neutrons get so thick as it nears criticality that it blows the charge apart in a sub-critical burst. This is why you have to use very sophisticated shaped charges to assure a perfectly spherical implosion.

    PU240 is easier to produce. U235 is easier to build a bomb with. It has proved very fortunate for the world that these two things are true.

  32. Re:Fusion Has Already Failed by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

    Solar panels 30-40 years ago were laughable as well mind you.

    They were not laughable. There just wasn't enough of economical and environmental incentives back then to push for their mass production. Now there is.

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
  33. Re:Who needs oil? by Mister+Liberty · · Score: 1

    Those 'petro-exporting countries' are all protege's of the US of A. Talk about belligerent.
    Maybe try to look in the mirror more, confused one?

  34. One small problem. by Chas · · Score: 1

    Fusion isn't developed to the point where it's viable yet. It's currently short-duration and net-energy negative at the moment.

    Second, trying to get to fusion with existing fossil fuel plants will just kill the planet that much faster. DUMB!

    There ARE relatively clean and safe options for fission power. And in the long run, we're better off transitioning base load power to fission plants, eliminating coal, oil and NG now, then chasing fusion while not poisoning the planet.

    Is there a possibility of something like the original article describes?

    Sure.

    But there's also a possibility of a rogue black hole eating the system too. Do we crouch here, wet ourselves and just wait for it to happen?

    It's called "risk management" for a reason.

    --


    Chas - The one, the only.
    THANK GOD!!!
  35. Re:Who needs oil? by rubycodez · · Score: 1

    Nonsense, value of dollar can be set in a world powered by any energy source adequate to produce needed goods and services. If fusion is sufficient, dollar is fine.

  36. Re:Fusion Has Already Failed by Electricity+Likes+Me · · Score: 1

    Look at ITER: $20B and rising, it will only make 500 MW(th) -- six times less thermal energy than a 1 GW(e) fission reactor -- and it doesn't even include the advanced materials needed to withstand commercial reactor levels of integrated neutron flux.

    Well, that's ITER's point now isn't it? We know what is required to make fusion work, we just don't know how long we can sustain a reaction because we do not understand how the large neutron flux will affect the materials in the container and we still have difficulties maintaining the containment. It's an engineering problem now, not something that is clearly impossible.

    IMHO, investments in such experiments should be expanded, by both government and industry. Just like getting a man on the moon, We need a JFK'esk commitment to making this work.

    ITER is also heavily instrumented and represents the design prototype for power generation. It's successor - DEMO - is expected to be bigger, but cheaper, because the design will be known, the manufacturing for the parts will be understood, and it won't include the scientific instrumentation since it'll be a power generating reactor, not an experiment.

  37. But would fusion ever be economical? by PeterM+from+Berkeley · · Score: 1

    My big worry with fusion is that it'll be shown possible, but the cost per MW of capacity will be so high that you can't pay the interest on the cost of capital by charging competitive rates for electricity. Thus rendering fusion forever uneconomical compared to alternatives.

    Nuclear fission seemingly has this problem right now, though much of the expense is due to implacable unreasonable opposition.

    --PM

    1. Re:But would fusion ever be economical? by bobbied · · Score: 1

      The main difference between fission and fusion is the cost of clean up. Fission is really messy, with radioactive materials in abundance. Fusion still has waste, but not nearly as much.

      --
      "File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
    2. Re:But would fusion ever be economical? by SomeoneFromBelgium · · Score: 1

      There is no indication that a fusion plant will be much more expensive to build than a fission plant (in fact it is an aim of the DEMO (successor of ITER)). But the wase handling is much cheaper since no high radioactive waste is produced.

      So how you would archieve better prices per kW from a fission plant than a fusion plant is beyond me.

    3. Re:But would fusion ever be economical? by PeterM+from+Berkeley · · Score: 1

      Actually, I disagree that a fission plant and a fusion plant of the same capacity are "the same" in terms of complexity.

      In a fission reactor:
      You don't need superconducting magnets to contain the fuel
      The fuel doesn't have to be kept in a near vacuum
      You don't need lots of gyrotrons to heat up the fuel
      The heat flux doesn't have to be kept away from the superconducing magnets
      The neutron flux is stopped pretty much right in the reactor, heating the coolant, whereas in a fusion reactor the neutron flux is stopped mostly by the vacuum containment

      I think a case could be made that these problems will translate into increased capital and operating costs that might well make fusion completely uneconomical compared to solar or whatever.

      --PeterM

    4. Re:But would fusion ever be economical? by bobbied · · Score: 1

      Cannot disagree with you on most of this. Yes Fusion reactors are much more complex and therefor expensive to make. However, you have to look at the whole return on investment throughout the life cycle of the plant. Fission creates some really nasty byproducts in large volumes that will have to be safely disposed of/stored for centuries before it is safe. Fusion creates nasty things too, but they are a lot less in volume and decay a whole lot faster. Less volume + faster decay = much less expensive to operate.

      Then there is the whole safety question where Fusion wins hands down. You want to stop generating heat? Just stop putting fuel into it and it's going to stop pretty quick. Fission? It can take months to get a reactor in a stable thermal condition...

      But, we can only argue about this for now. Neither of us knows if Fusion will be cost effective or not. You think not, I'm not so sure, it's still possible this will work out. Until we try though, we will never know if the existing designs are going to be cost effective or not. But I caution you, even things like Steel and Aluminum which we use almost like sand, used to be extremely expensive. Can you imagine what it would have cost to build a steel bridge in the 1800's? Or how much a light aircraft's weight in Aluminum sheeting would have cost then? It would have been a LOT of money. Now? Cheap, so cheap we throw away aluminum cans without a second thought.

      --
      "File to fit, pound to insert, paint to match" - Aircraft Maintenance 101
    5. Re:But would fusion ever be economical? by currently_awake · · Score: 1

      It's not unreasonable opposition, the current fission reactors were built to make nuclear weapons. If they wanted civilian power they would have gone with thorium as it's much cheaper, much safer, and we have much more fuel.

    6. Re:But would fusion ever be economical? by PeterM+from+Berkeley · · Score: 1

      You have very good points about the safety and waste disposal issues as advantages of fusion over fission.

      Actually, I'm not claiming to KNOW that fusion will be uneconomical. I'm just AFRAID that it might forever be uneconomical. The capital costs seem monumental to me. By posing it as a question I was hoping someone who knew better would weigh in on the topic.

      Honestly, I don't have a basis of knowledge on the topic to form any conclusion, and it's quite possible that until it is tried, no one *can* know with any certainty. If the answer is "no one knows", I support going on with fusion research until we figure that out.

      --PeterM

  38. we need to focus by michael_rendier · · Score: 1

    On other methods that don't fall into the bigger hotter heavier paradigm...

    --
    There are three kinds of people in the world. Those that can count, and those that can't.
  39. Re:Who needs oil? by currently_awake · · Score: 1

    The value of the US dollar is dependent on being the reserve currency of the world. If they lose that the dollar will devalue to peso levels. Oil is just one part of that, not the whole thing.

  40. Re:Who needs oil? by mirix · · Score: 1

    We'll run out of oil long before they ever get fusion working.

    --
    Sent from my PDP-11
  41. Re:They can produce tritium at fission plants by amazeofdeath · · Score: 2

    Pu-240 isn't used for nuclear weapons, though. The isotope for bombs is Pu-239, with a critical mass of ~10 kg. The spontaneous fission rate for Pu-240 is much higher than for Pu-239 (about 30000 times as high), and it's also more highly radioactive, leading to additional problems with keeping the bomb cool before detonation.

    The critical mass isn't that important in "normal" bomb designs. For example, Little Boy and Fat Man weighed about 4500 kg (the former being a couple hundred kg lighter), so a difference of a few tens of kg in the critical mass is negligible when compared to the total bomb mass. However, if you are aiming at the smallest possible physical bomb size, plutonium has a big advantage. Compare two actual weapons with ~1 kt yields, W33 and W54. The former is a gun-type uranium device, weighing something like 110-120 kg, based on the estimates I've seen, and it's an artillery shell with a base diameter of 20 cm and length of roughly 70 cm. The latter is a miniature plutonium implosion device with a weight of 23 kg and a diameter 27 cm.

    --
    U+F8FF
  42. Re:Fusion Has Already Failed by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 1

    It's an engineering problem now, not something that is clearly impossible.

    While entirely true, I was visiting the Princeton Plasma Physics lab in 1990 and heard just that. The sad part was I'd have to wait until 2012 for the first commercial fusion reactor to be viable! It was sweet to stand in the control room while they fused a few atoms in the tokamak. And the flywheels they had were the stuff of a steampunk's wet dream!

    To be fair, funding did decrease over the same time period and J.H.F.C., if the money spent on screwing up Iraq even more than it was had been spent on fusion research instead, Iraq would be much less relevant today in so many ways.

    IMHO, investments in such experiments should be expanded, by both government and industry. Just like getting a man on the moon, We need a JFK'esk commitment to making this work.

    We just need "JFK" to get out of the way and stop squashing every attempt commercialize technologies that actually put a huge dent into the carbon energy industry. Big oil plus big taxes on it is the stuff of _DC_ wet dreams.

    --
    My God, it's Full of Source!
    OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
  43. Booster fear unfounded by fozzy1015 · · Score: 1

    Boosting a fission bomb entails injecting tritium-deuterium gas into the center of a plutonium core implosion design before detonation. It boost the yield 2x to 2.5x. If an entity can build a reactor to create plutonium then it can create hydrogen isotopes. It would be easier for a clandestine terrorist group to figure out how to steal enough enriched uranium and build a gun bomb then steal enough plutonium to make an implosion bomb. Enriched uranium is safe to handle and figuring out a gun design easier to do. Little Boy was a gun design and didn't need a live test before being dropped on Hiroshima. As everybody has pointed out, if this world ever gets to the point where tritium-deuterium gas are produced in large enough amounts where theft is a worry so much time will have gone past that the world will be a very different place.

  44. Re:Who needs oil? by beerbear · · Score: 1

    This comment is just to undo incorrect moderation.

    --
    Hold my beer and watch this!
  45. We need ...... Solar? by danknight48 · · Score: 1

    We have a unlimited supply of energy which will last millions of years. Yet, we cant be bothered to pull our fingers out of our arse and make it really happen.

    Fusion is a great bit of fun years down the line if it works, but we need to think of now.
    Fix now, make solar plants on our planet or in space, then let the scientists play with other methods.

    Either way, energy companies really dont care about the future. All they care for is profits and now. We are going to be stuck in this era for a very long time, unless someone outside of the corrupt energy group can step in and start the ball rolling.

    1. Re:We need ...... Solar? by meta-monkey · · Score: 1

      We are going to be stuck in this era for a very long time, unless someone outside of the corrupt energy group can step in and start the ball rolling.

      That's what Elon Musk is doing with SolarCity. Combine his cheap solar panels with his cheap batteries from the gigafactory they're building and you've got your fantasy.

      --
      We don't have a state-run media we have a media-run state.
    2. Re:We need ...... Solar? by dublin · · Score: 1

      And we'll see if it really pays off for him. So far, unless you're on an island and have to ship in your diesel fuel, solar doesn't make economic sense without massive subsidies. (I'm pretty sure even a billionaire like Musk would blanch at backing solar without FITs, RECs, PPAs, etc.)

      I work in solar, and it's a technology I'd really like to see succeed, but we're quite some ways away, and in a few important ways, we're slipping backwards - It takes at *least* 20-25 years to make back your investment. But current solar cells (even good ones) will begin to rapidly degrade at that time -(to about 80% output, falling off a cliff to single digits within around another 5 years. So even if everything goes your way, you've got only about five years of positive and rapidly decreasing power production before you have to replace the whole thing and start over.

      The race to cheap Chinese panels now has panels lasting fewer than 10 years before delaminating and coming apart (leaching toxic heavy metals in the process...) - if that happens to even a few percent of the panels there's no way you can *ever* break even. Add in big outstanding questions about the lifespan of other expensive components such as inverters and wiring, and it's a good bet that only the most attentive operators of solar plants will ever make thier money back. (On the DC wiring issue, the prevalent PV industry practice of grounding the negative leg effectively *designs* for galvanic corrosion of the wiring, resulting in little more than hollow straws in a few years if things get a little damp - 300-1200 VDC *will* do that!)

      Lastly, you don't get much power out of solar on an areal basis - a good figure for perfect siting, etc. puts the max power per panel/year at only a few dozen dollars worth of electricity. (Heck, there's less than 1000 W/m^2 there to start with on a clear day and a LOT less than that if there are *any* clouds, and after conversion and transmission losses, you're down to only a little over 10% of that.)

      Solar is starting to make sense in limited cases, but it will be probably at least another decade or two before putting solar panels everywhere makes economic sense - especially in very distributed environments like residential rooftops, where no one is really going to be monitoring or maintaining the system. that's one advantage of Musk's approach - he tends to be focused more on larger sites that he can make sure are performing (or at least not sucking too bad...)

      --
      "The future's good and the present is nothing to sneeze at." - Roblimo's last ./ post
    3. Re:We need ...... Solar? by Neowolf2 · · Score: 1

      So far, unless you're on an island and have to ship in your diesel fuel, solar doesn't make economic sense without massive subsidies.

      This is false. Solar has made sense for people living even modest distances from grid for quite some time now. As solar has gotten cheaper, the distance has dropped. In some sunny locations (for example, much of Australia), the breakeven distance is now zero.

  46. Re:They can produce tritium at fission plants by PvtVoid · · Score: 1

    Pu-240 isn't used for nuclear weapons, though.

    Oh, shit. You're quite correct. Please consider me appropriately chastised.

  47. Re:They can produce tritium at fission plants by serviscope_minor · · Score: 1

    Not really. The critical mass for U235 is 50 kg or so, while for PU240 it's about 40 kg.

    As the other poster pointed out, it's Pu 239 with a critical mass of 10Kg. The Fat Man pit weighed only 6Kg however. You can enhance criticality by compressing the pit (the implosion stage) and reflecting the neutrons back, to increase the per-neutron fission yield.

    --
    SJW n. One who posts facts.
  48. Re: Who needs oil? by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

    > There would no longer be shortages of energy because fuel is ubiquitous

    LOLZ. Have you ever seen what you need to do to get D out of [H|D]2O? It's an enormous, massively expensive industrial plant that is an ecological disaster waiting to happen. The only major plant in north america, in Kinkardine, had to be shut down. They still refuse to allow anyone to use the land:

    http://www.kincardinenews.com/2013/12/23/opg-seeks-final-approvals-to-clear-former-heavy-water-plant-site-for-reuse

  49. Re:One word... by denis-The-menace · · Score: 1

    But it doesn't make bombs easily like the other reactors designs.

    That's why they didn't choose Thorium for fuel.

    --
    Obama's legacy: (N)othing (S)ecure (A)nywhere and (T)error (S)imulation (A)dministration
  50. Re:Who needs oil? by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

    > Fusion don't suffer from safety related issues that fission plants suffer from

    Bologna, you clearly don't know what you're talking about.

    Tritium production, and to a lesser extend materials protection, requires massive amounts of lithium metal. This is normally in the form of a liquid "blanket" sandwiched between two metal container walls. Some modern designs use lithium trapped in a porous solid matrix, but this requires more lithium and eliminates online processing. Anyway, there's about a 1 meter width of this stuff, which adds up to hundreds of tonnes and billions of dollars, which is why no one is going to build one of these things.

    So here's the thing, lithium is highly flammable. Just ask Tesla. And in the case of a fusion reactor, its filled with tritium. Tritium is extremely dangerous, it mimics hydrogen, so if its in a fire it combines with oxygen in the air to form T2O, which goes up into the air and falls back down as radioactive rain.

    Now what could cause such a problem? Well, for one, the reactor volume is surrounded by extremely powerful magnets under ridiculous amounts of stress. If one were to fail it would effectively explode with the same sort of results as a compressor blade failure. If a chunk goes THAT way instead of THIS way, it cuts the reactor core in half and out goes all the lithium. Solid systems would definitely improve safely under this failure mode, but, as I said, only at the cost of serious capacity factor effects and the inability to perform online processing.

    Yes yes, I'm perfectly aware of aneutronic solutions, but very basically, they don't work.

  51. Fusion: Meeting Earth's energy needs ... by Rambo+Tribble · · Score: 1

    ... for 4 billion years. Why switch now?

  52. Re:Fusion Has Already Failed by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 2

    > The watts per square meter are still very low, the panels very expensive, the land and installation requirements still onerous

    All-in, including land, clearing it, levelling it, installing equipment, trenching lines, all CAPEX and REG, every single penny from one end to the other, costs $1.79 a Watt.

    In comparison, fission plants are currently going in for at least $5 a Watt, but have overrun their budgets almost every time.

    Fusion reactors would be fantastically more complex and expensive than fission. To put that in perspective, the start-up load of lithium-6 will cost about $1.80 a watt. The concrete in the floor will be another 15 cents. So just for the floor and one ingredient, you're already more expensive than a complete spinning-the-meter PV system.

    > Face it, the only people buying solar
    ... is everyone on the planet. PV is the second fastest growing power source in history. Wind is the fastest. Numbers:

    http://cleantechnica.com/2014/03/18/37-gw-solar-capacity-installed-worldwide-2013/
    http://www.mercomcapital.com/global-solar-installations-to-reach-approximately-43-gw-in-2014
    http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Publications/GMO_2013_-_Final_PDF.pdf

    As a result of this activity, PV alone has gone from nowhere to a real bump on the graphs:

    http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2013/02/100-gw-of-solar-pv-now-installed-in-the-world-today

    100 GW of PV compared to about 370 GW of fission, before many of them were turned off. It took about 40 years to get to that point with fission, so PV is on track to surpass it quite rapidly.

  53. Re:Who needs oil? by blue9steel · · Score: 1

    People are still terrified of fluoride in their water.

    The main benefit for fluoridated water is to improve the tooth health of children. That's a worthy goal, but it doesn't justify putting it in the public water supply given the other effects of fluoride on adults. Fluoride for children can be quite easily administered at public schools with the same effects. I know, because that's how they did it here in Portland when I was growing up. With the development of Fluoride toothpastes in the 1970s the benefits are of water fluoridation are significantly reduced and the case for it no longer as clear cut as it was in the first half of the 20th century.

  54. Re: Who needs oil? by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 1

    > Actually, it was shut down because Canada had a surplus of heavy water

    Which says a lot about the industry as it currently stands. In spite of numerous technical advantages, actually selling a D2O reactor seemed beyond the capabilities of the country.

    > Canada developed a new technology for enriching deuterium from water, based on catalyzed exchange

    Currently small-scale system suitable for lab production and make-up supplies for the existing reactors, based on semi-enriched feedstock. That feedstock comes from LPCE.

  55. Re:proving his point... by 50000BTU_barbecue · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Could you read that again, please? How is there an average in there? Also, he mixed up density, temperature and energy density without blinking.

    I'm not impressed.

    --
    Mostly random stuff.
  56. Re:"The only downside will be the transition perio by Boronx · · Score: 1

    Let's not forget about the increase in terrorism and drug smuggling that's sure to follow the invention of star trek transporters. We really should be thinking and planning for this problem while there's still time.

  57. Re: Who needs oil? by Neowolf2 · · Score: 1

    Right, currently small scale because there is no demand for large amounts of heavy water. They tore down the old Girdler Sulfide plant because if such demand ever does materialize, they will want to build a new CECE/CIRCE plant instead.

  58. Re:Fusion Has Already Failed by Neowolf2 · · Score: 1

    Yes, an actual working commercial reactor will be even more expensive, since it will include things not present in ITER (like tritium breeding blankets, exotic materials that can withstand the neutron load, robotic systems for changing out damaged reactor segements when they reach their neutron exposure limits, and a turbine/generator set.) But even if $20B were too much, understand that a fusion reactor making 500 MW(th) would be uncompetitive even if it cost $2 B, an order of magnitude less. And ITER does not have $18 B of instrumentation in it.

  59. Re:doubt it by rubycodez · · Score: 1

    doubt what, that there is sufficient energy to power a civilization that will have a peak number of humans around 2075 or so? And resources don't disappear either, metals and minerals and such are still around, even if in landfills or in some form it would take energy to reclaim.

  60. Re:Fusion Has Already Failed by MrKaos · · Score: 1

    Yes, an actual working commercial reactor will be even more expensive

    I think that once the process is identified to achieve the orders of magnitude required to scale up fusion to commercial quantities that there will be a period of very expensive reactors that will perfect the required industrial processes to bring the cost down.

    I know it's a long way off and the issues you point out are similar to the neutron embrittlement of fission reactor cores, however I also think it is reasonable to presume that there will be some advances in materials technology that are more likely to have a greater impact on society than the fusion reactor. The fusion process will just be one of a number of benefactors.

    I would expect an experimental reactor to have more instrumentation than a full production reactor making it more expensive because it is also exploring concepts and has flexibility built in so that it can be reconfigured. However you are saying that a production fusion reactor won't realise those cost benfits. I'm interested in learning your reasoning as to why the costs of such technology won't come down if it becomes production technology?

    --
    My ism, it's full of beliefs.
  61. The only problem with practical fusion power by eric_harris_76 · · Score: 1

    As best I can tell, the only problem with practical fusion power is that it doesn't exist. Other than that, it's prefect.

    --
    There's no time like the present. Well, the past used to be.
  62. Re:They can produce tritium at fission plants by Neowolf2 · · Score: 1

    Actually, all plutonium bombs have a mix of isotopes in them. You can't make Pu-239 without also making some of the higher isotopes. "Weapons grade" Pu is about 6% Pu-240. "Reactor grade" Pu can be as high as 26% Pu-240. The important thing about DT boosting is that it enables weapons to be designed that are immune to fizzles from premature initiation of the chain reaction. Even if the chain reaction starts at the moment of criticality, enough fusion neutrons are generated to produce high yield as the expanding core becomes subcritical. From a proliferation point of view, this means a country with a large reactor-grade Pu stockpile, like Japan, could "break out" and quickly make large numbers of nuclear devices, if they have a tritium supply.

  63. Re:They can produce tritium at fission plants by amazeofdeath · · Score: 1

    I fail to see any point in your reply:

    - All explosives have impurities. A uranium-based nuclear bomb is not 100 % U-235, it's enriched to somewhere around 90 % U-235. A block of TNT is not 100 % trinitrotoluene, there are impurities too. The impurities sometimes contribute to the outcome, but in nuclear weapons, it's the U-235 or Pu-239 that's brought to critical density condition to make the explosion possible.

    - Working nuclear weapons have been designed without D-T boosting; in fact, no nuclear weapons program to date has began with such a boosted design. The boosting is a complication from engineering point of view.

    - It's access to weapons-grade uranium or plutonium that's the problem from proliferation point of view. If you have working nuclear plants, like Japan does, access to tritium is a trivial addition.

    --
    U+F8FF
  64. Re:They can produce tritium at fission plants by Neowolf2 · · Score: 1

    If you have tritium and can do boosting, there is no need for 'weapons grade' Pu to make weapons. This is the key point!

    So-called weapons grade Pu is called that because that's the isotope mix you get when you maximize Pu production in a thermal reactor (leave it in longer and too much Pu gets burned up). It's not because more Pu-240 makes the material unsuitable for weapons.

    The Pu used in very early weapons, before they had boosting, had very low Pu-240 content (so-called "super weapons grade"). Once boosting was invented it was no longer necessary to make the Pu so pure.

    Pu-240 is more than just an impurity, btw. It fissions too, with a higher cross section (and lower critical mass) than U-235.

  65. Re:They can produce tritium at fission plants by amazeofdeath · · Score: 1

    Again, you have no point:

    - If you can produce plutonium, you can produce tritium (in fact, you'll produce tritium in any water-cooled reactor).

    - The relative amounts of Pu-239 and Pu-240 is a function of burn time. If you have a nuclear reactor, you can control the burn time, producing the isotope mix you prefer. Pu-239 doesn't need to be enriched with centrifuges or other methods like U-235.

    - If you don't have plutonium production capability, but can get enough plutonium to make a bomb, getting tritium is trivial. Tritium has been widely used, and for example missing exit signs generate a large portion of NRC's "missing radioactive material" alerts.

    - Pu-240 was discussed above. Its presence in large concentrations complicate bomb design because of its high spontaneous fission rate and shorter half-life compared to Pu-239.

    --
    U+F8FF
  66. Re:Fusion Has Already Failed by Neowolf2 · · Score: 1

    I think that once the process is identified to achieve the orders of magnitude required to scale up fusion to commercial quantities that there will be a period of very expensive reactors that will perfect the required industrial processes to bring the cost down.

    Your comment there brings up a very important general point about how technology develops.

    ALL successful technologies develop by iteration, and this iteration can only happen if the cost of an iteration is sufficiently small. This means benchtop, or garage scale, technologies advance. If a technology starts at a point where an iteration costs $20B, it will go nowhere.

    If fusion is to have any chance at all, it will be with technologies that can be investigated for $20M, not $20B. And once an iteration gets sufficiently expensive relative to the size of the market (see, for example, passenger airliners), advancement slows way down or stops.

  67. Fusion Expert/Blogger/Evangelist Here! by thepolywellguy · · Score: 1
    Hey Slash Dot!

    I worked on NIF for 7 years. I hold a doctorate in engineering, with extensive fusion experience. For 5 years, I have been running a fusion blog: http://thepolywellblog.blogspo.... Got some traffic from here, thought I would say hello!

    Fusion is changing and it is much closer than you think. Consider what has happened, just this year:

    1. In April, Livermore has failed to get Ignition and cancelled LIFE. 13 BILLION Dollar program Ended.
    2. In June, the Navy published new polywell research, showing evidence of cusp confinement.
    3. In March, Jamie Edwards became the youngest person to fuse the atom, at 13! He was on The David Letterman Show,
    4. In March, General Fusion presented a 55 million dollar device to the TED conference. Jeff Bezos funded them.
    5. In May, LPPX raised tens of thousands in an online fund raising campaign for fusion.
    6. Last May, High school students won 2nd at the Intel International Science and Engineering Fair for doing fusion in a garage.
    7. This Year, Phenoix Nuclear Labs pushed out new fusion devices, which make 3E11 Nuetrons/Second with IEC fusion.

    This is the new, 2014, reality of fusion. It is not BS - but, real and substantial developments. It's not cold fusion. It's not even lasers or tokamaks. Fusion is changing. We will see what happens next. It is very exciting.