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X-Class Solar Flare Coming Friday
First time accepted submitter kit_triforce writes Satellites have just detected a powerful X1.6-class solar flare. The source was active sunspot AR2158, which is directly facing Earth. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash. Ionizing radiation from the flare could cause HF radio blackouts and other communications disturbances, especially on the day-lit side of Earth. In the next few hours, when coronagraph data from SOHO and STEREO become available, we will see if a coronal mass ejection (CME) emerges from the blast site. If so, the cloud would likely be aimed directly at Earth and could reach our planet in 2 to 3 days.
Because that would be a pretty bad scenario for us...
"Duck!"
Didn't RTFA, did they mention which side of our fine planet will be facing the worst of it? How long is the stream going to pummel us?
This issue is a bit more complicated than you think.
Can we hope it ends this farcical "progress" and return the planet to steam and gaslight?
"Flyin' in just a sweet place,
Never been known to fail..."
Times like this, I sympathize with the sysadmin of the spaceweather.com website. I hope she/he had nothing planned for this evening.....
or whatever is the current equivalent.
I realize it's just the title, but please...why can't we get it right? This isn't Stargate SG-1, where we have knowledge of solar flares to come, or the advanced technology to predict them. And this isn't a major news outlet, where they have no clue. So let's not PREDICT SOLAR FLARES. Let's grow up.
I think perhaps this post should be titled, "Effects of X-Class Solar Flare Coming Friday".
Make it so.
Can we hope it ends this farcical "progress" and return the planet to steam and gaslight?
So.... how are you fixed for firewood and natural gas?
Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
No no no no no: this is the Prophet reaching out from the sun to smite the Great Satan & stuff.
I'd have likely died during the attempt at birth, and taken my mother with me. I'm kind of enamored of modern technology, for some reason.
Get thee glass eyes, and, like a scurvy politician, seem to see things thou dost not.--King Lear
Whenever a user asks me how their file got corrupted, I usually mention solar flares as a _mostly_ joking answer. Soooo... should I proactively start a background verify on my SAN over the weekend?
This sounds suspiciously similar to the plot of The Maze Runner series.
Bad combo - giant solar flare just as the internet itself explodes with iPhone 6 pre-orders.
You may as well just crawl in a cave that day and see what is left of society when you come out. Hint; take some Twinkies as our soon-to-be cockroach overlords love them.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
HAM bands in the VHF range will be opening up! I am going to rig for 10m and 15 and see what happens.
I might a QSO from Europe with a little luck.
Never answer an anonymous letter. - Yogi Berra
Plenty of time to make a tinfoil hat.
"If any question why we died, Tell them because our fathers lied."
A Hallmark greeting card with a heart-shaped solar flare overlaying an "X" obviously meaning "love and kisses". It reads: "To Earth, with love. -- Sun"
Seastead this.
Even if it causes auroras in the lower latitudes, the Moon will still mess it up for most of the night. Oh well, it's a long shot in NorCal anyway, even though I'm well north of the Golden Gate now, and have dark skies in easy reach.
Seeing as it is only a x 1.6
As far as BIG things go this is a bit tiny
so PREPARE for the WORST
1 to 2 days no electricity
BUT
expect the BEST
pretty lights in the sky
"I don't pitch OpenSUSE Linux to my friends, i let Microsoft do it for me
Flares are bursts of energy, so they travel at the speed of light -- there's no real early warning for 'em, as by the time you see it, it's here. (there might be a slight warning before you hit the peak of the flare, but we're talking seconds, not days).
The CME is what's coming on Friday ... Coronal *Mass* Ejection ... ie, it's more than just an electro-magnetic pulse ... it actually has mass associated with it.
You might also get some SEP (solar energetic particles) before the main sort of 'cloud' from the CME arrives -- those can be worse for the people in space, as they arrive minutes to hours after the flare, and they'll just go through things in space (eg, spacecraft, space stations, etc.).
disclaimer : I'm not a solar physicist, but I'm a programmer/sysadmin supporting the Solar Data Analysis Center at GSFC.
Build it, and they will come^Hplain.
Checking www.spaceweather.com they say:
"STORM WARNING: A pair of CMEs is heading for Earth. The two solar storm clouds were launched on Sept. 9th and 10th by strong explosions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2158. NOAA forecasters estimate a nearly 80% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Sept. 12th when the first of the two CMEs arrives. Auroras are in the offing, possibly visible at mid-latitudes before the weekend.."
Check again tomorrow for an update....
http://www.skyandtelescope.com...
You just want to bust out your steampunk gear, don't you? ;-)
Lost at C:>. Found at C.
Or facing towards. A quick search and here is the best I could find showing propagation.
Based on your UID, you were around when it was steam and gaslight, right?
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
And here I thought the whole gamergate thing was the new gaslighting.
If you want a picture / movie that's actually based on this event's data ... use iSWA.
Select the 'ISEP' tab, and then choose one that mentions 'CME WSA' and looks like a swirl. (there are three of 'em ... pressure, velocity and density ... although I think something went wrong in their pipeline, as the pressure and density ones are *really* glitching out ... I don't know if that's one they generate every 15 mins, though)
You'll notice that even though the center of the cloud is expected to go ahead of the earth, they're predicting it'll be wide enough that we'll still get hit by it.
(disclaimer : I work for the Solar Data Analysis Center at GSFC)
Build it, and they will come^Hplain.
Oh, I am set for natural gas. I've got crates of canned beans stored in my basement.
Sleep your way to a whiter smile...date a dentist!
So if I have important data on a computer, is this a type of event where I should disconnect it from a power source?
So, to put it in layman's terms, the Sun farted at us.
Table-ized A.I.
Plenty of coal, though.
It's a X1, not a X20 flare. I do not think we really have much to worry about.
I'm surprised Slashdot is even covering anything less than an X5.
More like sticks and stones.
In a way. If you compare the sound of a fart to the flare (hear the fart instantly) and the smell of the fart to the CME (when you smell it later)
So.... how are you fixed for firewood and natural gas?
Pretty well, thanks! I have four cords cut split and seasoned (In a typical winter I'll go through 2-3), and another two I could tap in a pinch if we have a really bad winter.
I couldn't keep the fridge going (good thing winter provides its own cold), but I have enough solar/battery capacity to keep the house lit up with efficient LEDs indefinitely, and to run an energy-efficient tablet on the off chance we have some tattered remains of a communication infrastructure to connect to (or just to while away the hours reading the entirety of Project Gutenberg). And perfect time of year, crop-wise, I'll spend the next few months canning anyway.
You?
Given his user name, yes...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Cornelius
So, to put it in layman's terms, the Sun farted at us.
With the CME it's more like a shart.
Flares are bursts of energy, so they travel at the speed of light -- there's no real early warning for 'em, as by the time you see it, it's here. (there might be a slight warning before you hit the peak of the flare, but we're talking seconds, not days).
The CME is what's coming on Friday ... Coronal *Mass* Ejection ... ie, it's more than just an electro-magnetic pulse ... it actually has mass associated with it.
You might also get some SEP (solar energetic particles) before the main sort of 'cloud' from the CME arrives -- those can be worse for the people in space, as they arrive minutes to hours after the flare, and they'll just go through things in space (eg, spacecraft, space stations, etc.).
disclaimer : I'm not a solar physicist, but I'm a programmer/sysadmin supporting the Solar Data Analysis Center at GSFC.
If the flare was pretty much a direct hit, are we still going to be in the way if it takes 2-3 days for the CME particles to reach us? With a radial velocity of 30 km/s, the Earth will have moved several million kilometers away from the point where the flare struck. I know the Sun rotates in the same direction (~24 day period) as the Earth orbits (~365 day period), though, so maybe that imparts just the right amount of radial velocity.
Or would you rather just tell other people how you think they should be living.
Why is it so hard to only have politicians for a few years, then have them go away?
Speak for yourself. I for one am very happy with my microwave Hot Pockets and laser pointers.
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
Can we hope it ends this farcical "progress" and return the planet to steam and gaslight?
Frack Off!
or would that be, Frack On?
Well one way or another someone will get Fracked, and there will be gas...
You have the right to remain sentient. If you give up the right to remain sentient, you will be elected to public office
In the case of a bad solar storm, recovery may be delayed by the need to manufacture replacement transformers. http://www.reuters.com/article...
The nuclear industry developed a flex plan in response to Fukushima, but some of it has extra equipment available to handle a single issue arising among one of many reactors. http://safetyfirst.nei.org/ind... In a wide scale grid failure, does that really help is several emergency generators fail a few weeks into aftermath?
That video is all kinds of amazing.
My biggest interest (once we've determined taht it's not the end of life/technology as we know it) is to determine if we're in for lower latitude Aurora Borealis.
Back when I lived in MA, there was one particularly big CME maybe around 2004-ish (could be +- 1 year) and I remember how beautify the sky was... I actually gasped audibly when I first noticed it.
I'm likely way too far South to see them this time, but I do wonder if some parts of the US won't get a pretty show.
The Digital Sorceress
Fortunately the most the flare is going to miss us http://www.foxnews.com/science...
I don't want to do a sig now
I figure the best strategy is to have a gun and a well-prepared neighbor. However, I'm too lazy even for that level of preparation.
Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
Maybe the emf boost with make ghost hunting more fun
This one involves a CME directly headed toward Earth. It won't be world ending, it won't likely be damaging in any way, but it might have a decent chance of looking pretty. This is an improvement over announcing such things here after they happen, at least for those casually interested, but not motivated enough to sign up for a dedicated aurora news feed or notification service.
I figure the best strategy is to have a gun and a well-prepared neighbor. However, I'm too lazy even for that level of preparation.
Bad idea - Any "well prepared" neighbor probably has more guns, and more familiarity with using them, than you do. And while it only takes one lucky shot to take him out by surprise, you can pretty much bet your life (literally) that the Missus and little Timmy also know the right end of the barrel from the wrong.
(Not trying to sound like a "tough guy" here - I don't count as any sort of crackpot survivalist, just a rural geek; but I do know a few, and would do my best to avoid them in a doomsday scenario - Made of meat, dontchaknow?)
So.... how are you fixed for firewood and natural gas?
Practically noone stores natural gas. There is LNG and CNG but it's not really very common especially not for households.
You're probably thinking of propane. Many rural people not connected to natural gas have a propane tank in their yards.
I figure the best strategy is to have a gun and a well-prepared neighbor. However, I'm too lazy even for that level of preparation.
I suspect your "well-prepared neighbor" would have already loaded his gun with a bullet that has your name on it. Just sayin'.
Depends on where you live. When I lived in Cali, I knew people who were hoarding supplies but were strongly anti-gun. OTOH, for the guys with actual bunkers, well, they aren't called "bunkers" for nothing.
Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
Considering the mass, should we say the Sun sharted on us?
Solar, short wave radio, lots of firewood, wood stove, all gas appliances on the off chance that the natural gas infrastructure remains intact, about a year's worth of canned goods, and a seed cache. But I don't consider putting society back to steam and gaslight a good thing. Just a remote possibility that should be prepared for.
Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
I'm somewhat of a prepper, I have a year's worth of food, medical supplies, suitable arms. I have a friend who has only stockpiled arms and ammo. He says he has neighbors who stockpile food but are vehemently anti-gun, and he figures he'll just take what he needs from them. I don't happen to agree with this philosophy, but I'm aware that it exists.
I'm reminded of one of the interviews during Occupy Wall Street, where some young lady said that we should all be forced to go back to an agrarian society.
The reporter pointed out "but millions would die".
Her response was "Well, people die."
Well, ok then.
My question would have been "So... let's say you're one of the people who are lucky enough to belong to a successful agrarian society, and you have a good supply of crops. What are you going to do when the first horde of armed, half-starved marauders finds your settlement?"
Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
That was kind of my point. "Gaslight" still assumes some kind of working energy infrastructure.
Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
In our general direction anyway.
"If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be."
Looking for guidance on jailbreaking my iPad in order to convert it to run on Canola oil
" I've got crates of canned beans stored in my basement."
Soooo we can expect a steady stream of coronal ejections from your area as well!
CME also drags a big bubble of magnetic field with it. That is typically what does a lot of the "interacting".
The Grey Goo disaster happened 3 billion years ago. This rock is covered in self replicating machines!