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The World Is Not Falling Apart
An anonymous reader writes: As much as we like complaining, and as much as the big media stations like to focus on the most horrible news of the day, the world is actually becoming a better place. Stephen Pinker and Andrew Mack have an article in Slate going through many of the statistics for things like homicide rates, child abuse, wars, and even autocracy vs. democracy. They're all trending in the right direction. Maybe not fast, or even fast enough, but it's getting better.
They say, "Too much of our impression of the world comes from a misleading formula of journalistic narration. Reporters give lavish coverage to gun bursts, explosions, and viral videos, oblivious to how representative they are and apparently innocent of the fact that many were contrived as journalist bait. Then come sound bites from "experts" with vested interests in maximizing the impression of mayhem: generals, politicians, security officials, moral activists. The talking heads on cable news filibuster about the event, desperately hoping to avoid dead air. Newspaper columnists instruct their readers on what emotions to feel. There is a better way to understand the world. ... An evidence-based mindset on the state of the world would bring many benefits."
They say, "Too much of our impression of the world comes from a misleading formula of journalistic narration. Reporters give lavish coverage to gun bursts, explosions, and viral videos, oblivious to how representative they are and apparently innocent of the fact that many were contrived as journalist bait. Then come sound bites from "experts" with vested interests in maximizing the impression of mayhem: generals, politicians, security officials, moral activists. The talking heads on cable news filibuster about the event, desperately hoping to avoid dead air. Newspaper columnists instruct their readers on what emotions to feel. There is a better way to understand the world. ... An evidence-based mindset on the state of the world would bring many benefits."
World not falling apart my ass!
Sensationalism sells, and nothing is sensational like the end of the world. Ergo, all news is about the end of the world.
Actually, I think they just turned that into a mall. With a *starbucks*.
Mod me down, my New Earth Global Warmingist friends!
"An evidence-based mindset on the state of the world would bring many benefits."
Perhaps evidence can be gathered to support that hypothesis.
Not always. If the media makes it seem like things are getting worse overall. That would tell people the direction they are going in is wrong and will backtrack to the older ways when they were better.
You have sites like Fox News turning relatively moderate conservatives into extream conservatives. Due to the flood of negativity poison. Where before many issues were not a big deal or some supported it, now have became a polarizing issue.
Most of our judgment is based off of emotions, yes even the pro-science, well educated crowd. So misrepresented facts can cause a call to action where one isn't needed
If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
So, why does someone think we needed to be reminded of this?
It's not like even the news is particularly bad recently - no major wars, famines, etc. Even the Ebola outbreak only managed to do in 7000 people this year - once upon a time, we could expect a famine in Africa that did worse every few years.
Are we really reaching the point where we consider a few police shootings to be a sign of the end times?
"I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
The USA is still referred to as a democracy more often than not, but even the ways in which the system is democratic on paper have primarily been subverted. Why should I suspect the situation is any different anywhere else?
"You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
The question now is what part, if any, sensationalist media plays in this happy trend.
The big thing that is worse, I think, is economic inequality, and I do think that is something that needs to be worked on. However, the world has less racism, less homophobia, better medicine, cheap and fast global communications, inexpensive computing devices that can perform amazing computations, and put the shoe phone from "Get Smart" to shame,. Not to mention that violent crime and rape are at their lowest level since the 70's. The world is an awesome place now.
> The jobless? The disenfranchised? The dispossessed and everyone else who loves to lick Obama's boot?
Yes, them. Or are you COMPLETELY ignorant of history?
At what other time in history could people take two or three years off work and collect unemployment benefits? Have a look at a picture or film of a low-income or rural area from a hundred years ago. Note the large number of children sick from hunger-related disease. Then drive through a modern low-income housing project. Note all the 22 inch rims.
It's never incorrect to say "perhaps we could make things better". To say "things were better when people starved to death as opposed to today, when they might need to buy the generic-brand cheese with their EBT card" is outrageous. It just makes you look utterly ignorant.
Or were you referring to today versus ten years ago? If your idea of history is the last ten years, then you're correct. In 2004, 5% of people were unemployed. Today, it's 7.5%.
A wise politician one said, "Never let a crisis go to waste". If the public isn't agitated, they won't give up their liberties and control to the government.
Crime rates are down, yet cops are more militarized than ever. Police shootings are rare. Gun violence is down. College campus sexual assault rates are actually 0.61%. The earth is not warming in 20 years. There is no missing heat in the oceans. Hurricanes and tornado count are at a historical low. Unemployment counting those not looking for work is at a 40 year high. Inflation in food (not counted) is huge, yet commodities (gold / oil) are deflating. College debt is crippling high, but so is general credit card debt.
If you dig into the numbers behind the "official" numbers, everything is topsy turvy. That's why the public sees doom and gloom - everything they experience is counter to what we are being told, including articles saying "Don't panic".
You say that like the groups are separate.
Obama's aligned with the typically-liberal Democrat party. Liberals tend to believe that one of the government's jobs is to make things better for the jobless, the disenfranchised, the dispossessed, the poor, the hungry, and the downtrodden, so he's pushed programs that aim to help such folks.
Of course, that's countered by the Republican conservatives, who tend to believe that everyone can make their own fate, so those programs are forced to be either opt-in or neutered. If you want to rebel against the government's control, you have that freedom to forge your own way in life.
The end result is a system where assistance is tied to one's embrace of government. Sure, one can stay independent, but that's likely how he got to be jobless, disenfranchised, dispossessed, poor, hungry, and/or downtrodden in the first place.
You do not have a moral or legal right to do absolutely anything you want.
Define recent
Many countries that the US invaded, were first invaded by somebody else. For example France was invaded by Germany before the US got into the war.
The world is huge coupled dynamical system. It is good to see its state is moving in a good direction. However, as with many dynamical system, it is also a highly unstable. The current conditions are quite favorable, no real scarcity of our resources, no serious climate change, no world wars, no major deadly disease outbreaks etc. However, that doesn't mean that we can now lay back and assume that past performance is a good predictor of our future. If you disagree, think about it and tell me, what will happen to our beloved coupled dynamical system when we run out of oil (just to mention one thing which we know WILL happen not that long from now)...
That's a very interesting perspective.
I'd say that the fundamental, defining difference between conservative thinking vs progressive is that while progressives say "let's change things for the better" conservatives say "don't throw the baby out with the bath water". Conservatives think America is basically pretty good, progressives think it needs it be "fundamentally transformed", as Obama put it. Progressives say "we need to do something" (and proposal X is something, so we need to do it). Conservatives think we shouldn't lose sight of the principles that once made this the greatest country on earth.
If you belief, based on the news you see, that the place is falling apart, then indeed "we need to do something" (liberalism) is a reasonable response. If you believe life is pretty good, and slowly getting better, then you should stick with what's been working (conservatism). So I'd come to the opposite conclusion as you.
If having more women in nursing and more men in programming is a terrible, horrible thing, then we have to do something about it. If black people can never succeed, if it's unimaginable that any black person could ever be a judge, a mayor, or a senator, then we need to do something about that. On the other hand, if black people can be judges, mayors, senators, and even president of the United States, then all the liberal progressivism is unnecessary, and indeed their complaints of being "kept down by the man" are just whining, excuses. If the society isn't basically racist, then Al Sharpton is out of a job. Progressivism REQUIRES big problems. If you don't believe there are big problems everywhere you look, you have no interest in liberals' big "solutions".
Personally, I think some things could be improved. Liberals do a pretty good job at identifying the problems. However, they all-too-often fall into the trap of "we have to do something, and proposal X is something, so we have to do proposal X". Conservatives are hesitant to change things, so they don't screw things up. Perhaps the ideal would be for liberals to set the agenda of which problems we want to solve this year, then for conservatives beancounters to get out their calculators and figure out which proposed solutions have worked well elsewhere or in the past, and which ones are economically feasible. So the liberals force the conservatives to do SOMETHING, and the conservatives ensure that the SOMETHING has a reasonable chance of working, and without making us bankrupt.
Because even if the people from the middle-east and Africa develop for the better and people in Sweden do so to we still bring people from the middle-east and Africa to Sweden and they may lag behind in humanity. .. If nothing else they cost money due to the well-fare system.
you also have sites like slate, salon, msnbc turning everyday americans into total idiotic drones
Because I let you choose to spread your idiocy that's why.
More people right now are living in peace with their neighbors than between the Yeats 1500-1900
If Iraq was fought like other wars in history the USA' army would be 50 million soldiers. Not 1.2 million.
There are 320 million people in the USA with an army of 1.2 million. That's 1/2 of 1%. There are more homosexuals people in the USA 3-5 million than soliders.
Even China with 1.2 billion people only has an army of 3 million.
i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
Yea the conservatives are becoming extremists. That's why I see chants of "What do we want? Dead cops. When do we want it? Now", and then a guy drives to NYC and kills 2 cops.
I think you are so delusional its laughable. Its the left that has fomented hatred to the point where murders are actually happening. Its now significantly more dangerous to be a good cop in NYC this week than a month ago solely because of extremists liberals, like... President Obama, Eric Holder, the Mayor of NYC. I don't see John Bohner or Mitch McConnel telling people all cops are racists bastards.
... are social? Global warming, over-population, every ecosystem on the planet in decline, ravaged fish stocks, depleted soils, widespread environmental contamination, a loss of green spaces, habitat and species, and on, and on don't reflect on the world's condition? Let the rainbows and unicorns run wild!
Agree with everything you said except your unemployment statistic (assuming we're talking USA here). November 2004 it was 5.5%. November 2014 it was 5.8%
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries...
Its pretty easy to find places where this is clearly not true (eg: Syria). But those are localized places and times. That's like finding a place where entropy seems to be decreasing; you can do that, but that only means elsewhere it increased more. Human society seems to follow Theodore Parker's principle: The moral arc of the universe is long, but it bends toward justice.
This seems like a good place and time for my favorite Christmas song, written by Longfellow after he'd lost his entire family (wife included) during the Civil War:
I heard the bells on Christmas day Their old familiar carols play, And wild and sweet the words repeat Of peace on earth, good will to men.
I thought how, as the day had come, The belfries of all Christendom Had rolled along th'unbroken song Of peace on earth, good will to men.
And in despair I bowed my head: "There is no peace on earth," I said, "For hate is strong and mocks the song Of peace on earth, good will to men."
Then pealed the bells more loud and deep: "God is not dead, nor doth he sleep; The wrong shall fail, the right prevail, With peace on earth, good will to men."
Till, ringing, singing, on its way, The world revolved from night to day, A voice, a chime, a chant sublime, Of peace on earth, good will to men!
real-world policies are designed to entrap those foilks into dependency on the Glorious Liberal State,
Right on brother, the proven ulterior motives of heathcare, unemployment benefits, etc of this administration that hates america are the worst of all time. Things have never been this bad....wait what was this story about again? Something about sensationalism in the media making things look awful when they're really the best in history?
One thing I'm sure you (should) agree with is that today's conspiracy theory's are some of the best ever.
I had accidentally looked at 2013 rather than 2014. The average for 2013 was 7.5%. BLS says November 2004 was 5.4%, not 5.5% - close enough. If we're trying to compare this year to ten years ago, looking at just November only is a bit misleading, though.
For 2014:
Jan 6.6
Feb 6.7
Mar 6.7
Apr 6.3
May 6.3
Jun 6.1
Jul 6.2
Aug 6.1
Sep 5.9
Oct 5.8
Nov 5.8
The big thing that is worse, I think, is economic inequality,
If everything is getter better in terms of quality of life, and economic inequality is growing, then how can you EI as bad?
At the very least it's not bad enough to matter.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
The guy who drove to NYC and killed two cops was a nut-case who should have been locked up for earlier incidents. Similarly, I think the cop responsible for the death in NYC was guilty of at least accidental homicide (I think he meant to arrest the victim, not any worse, though I do not understand from the video why the incident was escalated to a physical confrontation). Neither reflects the average person - which is the point of the original article.
As I type our galaxy is spiraling into a super massive black hole. It is way past the year two thousand, and we are way behind schedule building intergalactic arks to escape this calamity. We don't even have moon bases, foot prints on Mars, or even personal robotic assistants. Hell, we are still burning fossil fuels and wiping with paper. How is this not the world falling apart?
Slashdots just as guilty of this as anywhere else...
A month or two ago I was getting modded troll left and right for suggesting that Ebola wasn't about to ravage North America and kill millions of people.
The media are not getting any more sensational than they used to be. Just rip open your local turn-of-the-century (e.g. 114 years ago) newspaper archives. They used to report on *everything*.
"Evil will always triumph over good, because good is dumb." - Dark Helmet (Spaceballs)
The music was probably just getting good on the Titanic as the band warmed up for the evening. There are still nuclear weapons and touchy world leaders in charge of them. Ebola may yet achieve full destructive power, particularly if a terrorist or two decide to self-infect and take a trip to New York City, Moscow or Saudi. Despite the recent developments in oil, "peak oil" or rather gradual hydrocarbon depletion and rising costs is going to bite us very hard in the next 50 years, like it or not. The world economy is a farcical house of cards, ready to crumble at any time.
So yeah, lower crime rates. Lower infant mortality. Yay.
But it can all disappear in a heartbeat.
Please do not read this sig. Thank you.
Aaron Sorkin, The Newsroom, and the greatest country in the world
For all the later melodramatic histrionics that did not work, Aaron Srokin hit this subject in the opening of The Newsroom, where just ignoring the evidence for ratings doesn't do anybody any kind of justice.
Transcript and comments from Sorkin:
http://www.gq.com/entertainmen...
"Fine. [to the liberal panelist] Sharon, the NEA is a loser. Yeah, it accounts for a penny out of our paychecks, but he [gesturing to the conservative panelist] gets to hit you with it anytime he wants. It doesn't cost money, it costs votes. It costs airtime and column inches. You know why people don't like liberals? Because they lose. If liberals are so fuckin' smart, how come they lose so GODDAM ALWAYS!
And [to the conservative panelist] with a straight face, you're going to tell students that America's so star spangled awesome that we're the only ones in the world who have freedom? Canada has freedom, Japan has freedom, the UK, France, Italy, Germany, Spain, Australia, Belgium has freedom. Two hundred seven sovereign states in the world, like 180 of them have freedom.
And you, sorority girl, yeah, just in case you accidentally wander into a voting booth one day, there are some things you should know, and one of them is that there is absolutely no evidence to support the statement that we're the greatest country in the world. We're seventh in literacy, twenty seventh in math, twenty second in science, forty ninth in life expectancy, 178th in infant mortality, third in median household income, number four in labor force, and number four in exports. We lead the world in only three categories: number of incarcerated citizens per capita, number of adults who believe angels are real, and defense spending, where we spend more than the next twenty six countries combined, twenty five of whom are allies. None of this is the fault of a 20 year old college student, but you, nonetheless, are without a doubt, a member of the WORST period GENERATION period EVER period, so when you ask what makes us the greatest country in the world, I don't know what the fuck you're talking about?! Yosemite?!!!
We sure used to be. We stood up for what was right! We fought for moral reasons, we passed and struck down laws for moral reasons. We waged wars on poverty, not poor people. We sacrificed, we cared about our neighbors, we put our money where our mouths were, and we never beat our chest. We built great big things, made ungodly technological advances, explored the universe, cured diseases, and cultivated the world's greatest artists and the world's greatest economy. We reached for the stars, and we acted like men. We aspired to intelligence; we didn't belittle it; it didn't make us feel inferior. We didn't identify ourselves by who we voted for in the last election, and we didn't scare so easy. And we were able to be all these things and do all these things because we were informed. By great men, men who were revered. The first step in solving any problem is recognizing there is one, America is not the greatest country in the world anymore."
Don't think Stephen is under any illusions about those are tradeoffs - but then given the numbers, it's up to each individual to decide if they're worth it. There are also people who imagine the world could be Burning Man with better cell service, and that also has unforeseen consequences.
"Win treats sysadmins better than users. Mac treats users better than sysadmins. Linux treats everyone like sysadmins."
Not to mention that violent crime and rape are at their lowest level since the 70's. The world is an awesome place now
That's a very narrow assessment.
A pox on web designers who feel that window.innerWidth == screen.availWidth
Yea the conservatives are becoming extremists. That's why I see chants of "What do we want? Dead cops. When do we want it? Now", and then a guy drives to NYC and kills 2 cops.
I think you are so delusional its laughable. Its the left that has fomented hatred to the point where murders are actually happening. Its now significantly more dangerous to be a good cop in NYC this week than a month ago solely because of extremists liberals, like... President Obama, Eric Holder, the Mayor of NYC. I don't see John Bohner or Mitch McConnel telling people all cops are racists bastards.
Yeah, stand behind the cowardice of anonymity.
That little chant you're referring to was purposely edited to inflame idiots just like you. Google "fox affiliate Baltimore edit protest video".
Are you really implying that President Obama, Eric Holder, and Bill DiBlasio said that all cops are racists? Put your money where your mouth is and post links to references.
Oh - and did I say "you're an idiot"? Yeah, I did.
"A little misunderstanding? Galileo and the Pope had a little misunderstanding."
Overall, I understand the point of the article and I agree with it... but there's still something faintly disturbing that it is even necessary to report that there is less genocide than there used to be.
Or at least the 24-hour news cycle did when they covered the girl in the well story endlessly. To make matters worse, social media is enabling bogus memes to spread like kudzu. There's an important phrase that people should be taught and that is "Totality of the circumstances." What this means is that these bogus memes are almost always one-sided counting on the gullibility of the viewer to accept it as fact without knowing that there are circumstances and facts that happened which are conveniently skipped lest they burst the bubble of the narrative.
I doubt that the information we are getting is misleading so much as we were less aware of how much awful was happening in the world. The world may be getting better, but what that actually means is that if we knew as much about world X years ago, it would be horrifying in comparison.
This is my signature. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
Soldiers happen, but they are rare.
They choose to be that way.
It doesn't really have anything to do with anything, it is just an interesting comparison to understand scope. It is like, "the U.S. spend so much money on X per year that if you stacked dollar bills on each other, the stack would reach the moon." What do dollar bills and the moon have to do with each other? Nothing. It is just an amusing comparison for people who have a hard time grasping numbers and their true meaning.
I would say that needing to swear because someone uses the percentage of gays in the US in a comparison probably indicates a problem. Are you unhappy with how many gays there are, or how many soldiers there are.
For the record, I think we have just the right amount of each. Otherwise the market forces would cause more to be created.
Hmm. Now I'll have to go consider what market forces could cause the creation of addition gays...
All this proves is that it's been falling apart for a long time. It still is just a little slower.
as eckhart tolle once said when asked about whether the world is getting better/awakening or spiraling down into darkness... the answer is 'both'. so on the one hand, while the descent is very real and significant, it seems that a growing number (massive number i think in fact) are (being shocked sometimes into) waking up to the truer nature of things, and real-eyes-ing that there is far more going on than what see-an-end (cnn) talks about. love is coming.
but for it to find us, we need to take responsibility for the condition of our hearts.
Yea the conservatives are becoming extremists. That's why I see chants of "What do we want? Dead cops. When do we want it? Now", and then a guy drives to NYC and kills 2 cops.
You had conversations with these people about political philosophy? That must have been pretty interesting. Was that before or after the police officers were murdered?
Also, it seems to me that the level of anti-authoritarianism that would lead to murdering police officers is not what the Republicans typically associate with liberals.
The jobless? The disenfranchised? The dispossessed? The poor, the hungry, the downtrodden?
Or is it just getting better for the corporate, the military, and everyone else who loves to lick Obama's boot?
You too can be successful! Just lick that boot! Lick it good.
This type of comment says a lot about the people who agree with it. When the headline says "The World", they only talk about the United States.
to state the obvious. Come on, can we please have some hard facts and details and not this editorial bullshit?
http://www.acetonestudio.com
There is going to be a huge resource crunch in the next half century as more nations become developed. And unless huge breakthroughs are made in energy storage, solar and wind power is not going to be an acceptable way to make them happy since power grids are horrifically complex. (green energy is already a pain to deal with in developed countries with regards to pushing it back in to the power grid)
Another problem solved by Slashdot. Next.
The nature of humans is the same today as it was 10,000 years ago. Because of that, we are still in the same boat. The environment has changed, the problems have changed, but the state of things is the same. When someone in The West claims things are getting better, it's because the person is deceived by the wave of western success. If you look at the world as a whole, it's still a violent, scary place.
Well, it is a less violent and scary place. That has changed.
Yes, some things are improving. But others are not. And to say that the things these people picked define "the world" is nothing more than hubris.
There are many things that are not improving. Some of them bode extremely poorly for the future. Climate may be one of those (or not... we will see.) Loss of privacy is another. Militarization of police is another. Constitutional erosion is another. A continuously increasing burden of badly crafted and anti-liberty legislation is another. The US justice system is a horror show from one end to the other. We're presently building a mostly unemployable permanent lower class by the continuing and increased implementation of never forgive, never forget social patterns and supporting technology. The vast majority of wealth has become concentrated in the hands of a very few people and corporations, and those same people and corporations have assumed de-facto control of our political system everywhere it does something that matters to them.
Depending on where you sit in regard to these issues, and others, your world may be sucking harder on an ever-increasing curve.
The world is what it is. Happy-assed optimism isn't called for outside of your own situation, and only then if that's how you see it.
I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
"Conservatives are hesitant to change things, so they don't screw things up."
Your description would paint Bush as a liberal. What with his pet project to fix Iraq, bailouts for failed corporate ventures, trying to sovle all the problems in the world through big government military, spying and toruture programs, expansion of American powers in the bedroom, and bolstering the profiteers of a nearly wiped out American milddle class.
Liberals like Bush should mind their business, focus on domestic affairs like the failures of healthcare. Conservatives like Obama, with strong focus on small government, reduction in military, long term thinking for healthcare, prudent fiscal policy and expansion of jobs and the economy once again kickstart a broken economy, and lead the U.S. to record job creation and growth.
You just need to look at the DJIA to see who's got the right numbers.
I guess we know who was stoned out of their mind during history class. Other than me, I mean. :) Corporations you say? The colonists dumped the cargo of the East India Company. The East India Company, founded in 1600, officially ruled countries. No corporation today comes anywhere near the power of the corporations of the founding era. You might also want to look up the words "corporation" and "corporal" in the dictionary.
You might also look up "tar and feather ", a common practice at the time the republic was founded. See also "drawn amd quartered".
Here's the opening line from George Washington's announcement of the Constitution, the one that protects the rights "endowed by your creator ": ..."
"Whereas it is the duty of all nations to acknowledge the providence of Almighty God, to obey His will, to be grateful for His benefits, and humbly to implore His protection and favor
The concept that the founders were liberal hippies is laughable. American liberalism, the secular movement we have today, came to America in the 1960s.
Once you have clue about American history, you can go to the hardware store and buy some hemp rope. Hemp is a fiber that os legally sold in the US. Marijuana is a drug. They are similar genetically, but not as genetically similar as Clinton and Romney are.
> your description would paint Bush as a liberal. What with his pet project to fix Iraq, bailouts for failed corporate ventures
And indeed Bush Jr's approval rating among republicans was nearly as bad as Obama's among Democrats. Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity regularly took him to task. They much preferred the elder Bush, who made a clear decision to NOT invade Iraq. I myself criticized junior on national radio, based on the argument that he was not following conservative principles.
Well, the world is getting better in the sense that Pinker and Mack thought the world was falling apart and are now better informed like everyone else was all along.
It is difficult to weight events of different nature. Indeed reduced homicide rate in NYC is nice for New-Yorkers, but on the other hand, neo-nazism apparition in Kiev government is a bad news for that area. How do we decide what even trumps the other?
http://money.cnn.com/2013/12/0...
Casteism
Slate Magazine? Really? Credible... on ANYTHING?
More likely they are trying to assure the readership that the Democratic Party getting the worst electoral shellacking since the 1920's is not the end of the world...
Murphy was an optimist
> Democracy was a radical new idea
If you consider something 2,300 years old a "new idea".
Tell me, though what does democracy have to do with the founding of the republic? You know the US is a republic, not a democrqcy, right? Maybe you don't, given you thought democracy was a new idea.