Elon Musk Predicts 1,000km EV Range In Two Years, Autonomous Cars In Three

An anonymous reader writes: Speaking with a Danish TV show, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk made a couple of interesting statements about Tesla's future. The company's Model S sedan advertises a range of 200-300 miles (322-483 km) depending on variant, average speed, and tires. Musk says the company will produce an electric vehicle capable of breaking the 1,000km (621 mi) mark by "2017 for sure." Later, Musk went even further, saying he expected "full autonomy" for Tesla vehicles to arrive in "approximately three years." He doesn't expect them to be legal at that point, as regulations will take time to catch up.

Comments

illegal autonomous cars?

[turkeydance]

where do i sign up?

Re:illegal autonomous cars?

[crow]

He was clear in the interview that he thought it would take another 1-3 years before it would be legal, depending on the jurisdiction.

I read a review of the beta Autopilot feature expected to be released next month, and it's also illegal. It lets you take your hands off the steering wheel, which is illegal in some states. (I know you can be cited for it in Massachusetts; a state trooper said he used that to ticket drivers on cell phones if they gestured when he was looking.)

Re:illegal autonomous cars?

[hawguy]

where do i sign up?

An autonomous car is still useful even if it's not legal for it to operate fully autonomously -- it can prevent you from inadvertently running a red-light and getting T-boned in an intersection, or could keep you from crashing into a bridge pillar when you fall asleep at the wheel.

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[taustin]

Only if you can recharge it for another 300 miles in five minutes or less, like you can gas up a regular car.

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[natex84]

This is hardly a requirement. If you drive your vehicle hundreds of miles a day, probably an electric vehicle isn't for you (yet). According to this page:

https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/...

The average driver drives about 36 miles per day...

Re:illegal autonomous cars?

[savuporo]

Factor in Musk time dilation factor. When he says 2017, you have to be pretty precise about the gravitational lensing his ego has created in the room that particular day. It's normally around 2071 or so

Re:illegal autonomous cars?

[Njorthbiatr]

Pretty sure he's always done things faster and better than he says.

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[BadgerSauce]

If I could afford a Model S I'd buy it. The highest performance model can even go 0-60mph in 2.8 seconds with a G force higher than gravity. I'm waiting for model 3 which should come late 2017 or early 2018 if they are on schedule, at 35k USD (before incentives and savings from gas and maintenance). Range will be less, around 200 miles, but more than enough for me, and they are building superchargers all over the world for when taking a longer trip (takes 30 or 45 min to charge most of the way back up, so need kill some time having lunch etc). Batteries are expected to get about 10-15% better every year, so you could buy a new battery after a few years to eventually have a 300+ mile range. This wouldn't be cheap though, its a very large heavy battery pack that makes up a significant part of the cost of the car, something like 10-20k USD (but I presume cost of batteries will go down, especially with Tesla more than doubling the worlds production of lithium batteries with their Gigafactory).

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[zopper]

The thing with average is, you can't look on the tables and say 50 miles is enough for most. Because 36 miles a day can be also 252 miles in a one day in a week. Or 500 miles in a weekend if the driver is commuting from home to university once in two weeks... Averages are realy ugly, nothing-saying (and most frequently misused) numbers. Use quartiles if you really want something remotely useful.

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[BadgerSauce]

Correction; batteries are expected to get about 5-10% better every year, so it would probably take several years before one could upgrade a model 3 to have 300 mile range.

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[Epsillon]

Flow battery - the latest one with non-toxic electrolytes and long lasting membrane. Minor detail is you'd need four tanks (one for each electrolyte charged and spent) but the recharge process would be much faster - filling station removes spent electrolyte pair and replenishes with charged, recycling the spent electrolyte with its own bulk charger - and it would remove the elephant in the room that nobody mentions when talking about electrical vehicles: The cost of replacing the hideously expensive, highly reactive and toxic LiFePO cells every 500 or so recharge cycles. It also removes the fuel cell issue of storing hydrogen. Filling stations may be able to make a profit from "fuel" instead of relying on cans of coke and sausage rolls, too.

A bigger elephant is that it just moves emissions from the exhaust to the power station but I suppose it may be easier to sequester the output if it's in one place or, at least, manage the release. Filling stations could supplement their income with microgeneration on site feeding the bulk charger, which would help bring the ecobollox down to a dull roar.

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[dargaud]

On average, human beings have one tit and one testicle.

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[natex84]

I'm quite sure on average they have a non integer number of both...

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[natex84]

The thing with average is, you can't look on the tables and say 50 miles is enough for most.

No one in this thread has yet. I'm not worried about people mis-interpreting my post, this is slashdot, right?

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[serviscope_minor]

I'm quite sure on average they have a non integer number of both...

Indeed and it's an interesting fact that most people have more than the average number of arms.

Re:illegal autonomous cars?

[KGIII]

Like hell I wouldn't. I'd download ALL of them.

Re:illegal autonomous cars?

[Beezlebub33]

Well, no. I'm a fanboy of Musk too, but honestly, the Model X is years behind schedule (see this. Costs have not been what they were originally expected to be. The cars themselves are awesome, and he gets it done, but he's been late.

Re:illegal autonomous cars?

[Kjella]

I doubt autonomous cars will be illegal per se - there's already a ton of driver assistance functions that intercede on your behalf. So you can put the car on autopilot, but legally you're responsible. People will of course act like the car drives itself anyway - it happened the first time they let non-project Google employees drive extremely early prototypes, you bet it will happen with average people on a production model. You're not exactly facing the death penalty for falling asleep behind the wheel and killing someone just like so many fiddle with their phones while driving. It will be the de facto introduction of self-driving cars, even if it legally won't.

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[FlyHelicopters]

If I could afford a Model S I'd buy it.

I can afford it and I won't buy it.

Why? Because for the price, it just doesn't have the utility it should.

You can buy cars that are just as nice for half the money, it makes no sense other than as a fashion statement or a "I'm saving the Earth" statement.

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[shilly]

Well, you can't look at the tables and say 50 miles is enough for most. But you can look at the data and say that. Very few people have travel requirements of 250 miles in a single day each week (or even most weeks). Most people aren't university students, and most university students don't drive home fortnightly. There are lots of edge cases where 50miles per day isn't enough, but there are even more non-edge cases where it is.

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[shilly]

What utility "should" it have that is missing? How do you define "should"? I'm guessing that by "should", you mean "I would want it to have if I were to buy it, which I won't be doing anyway on principle". But "should"? I mean beyond a steering wheel, an enclosed body, seatbelts, lights, wheels and an engine, is there that much that a car "should" have?

"Just as nice" is entirely subjective. If your subjective definition of "nice" includes "no significant engine sound and no tailpipe emissions but a 200 mile range", then there is no "nice" alternative to the Tesla at any price. Obviously, *your* definition of "nice" doesn't include these things, but other people's definitions do, and I don't see why you should privilege your definition over theirs.

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[bkr1_2k]

You can buy cars that are just as nice for half the money, it makes no sense other than as a fashion statement or a "I'm saving the Earth" statement.

Or perhaps to keep supporting a company that is driving that market? I'm with you, it's not useful enough but there are other reasons to buy these than image.

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[bkr1_2k]

Tesla should just lease the batteries. Replace them every X years and do battery charge capacity or some other meaningful metric instead of miles to determine how much you owe on the lease at the end. Recylcling the batteries will be "green" and it keeps people coming back for upgrades that will keep the cars on the road longer and reach more than just the niche market of people who can afford niche cars.

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[FlyHelicopters]

That is a nice cute meaningless reply...

I'm sure you think you were full of snark, but you're just being obtuse...

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[Apocryphos]

Don't worry, bro. Flyhelicopters comments on every Tesla/electric car article here about how he doesn't want one because he needs a suburban.

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[shilly]

You can assume mal-intent all you want, or you could read what I wrote and actually answer the question I put to you: what utility "should" a Tesla have that it is missing? You presumably have some specifics in mind, so I'm asking you to say what they are.

As for the second part of what I said: Meaningless is saying "you can buy a car that's just as nice for half the money" without giving any actual examples, so that people can test your assertion. And do you really think there's some kind of objective standard for nice? That's just bizarre.

If you spent less time looking for snark and actually engaged with other people sensibly, you might teach something, or learn something, or advance your argument.

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[shilly]

What a sterile way to live.

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[tehcyder]

what utility "should" a Tesla have that it is missing?

In most vehicle discussions on slashdot, the answer to this is "it must be able to carry a two ton twenty foor tree trunk in case I want to build a tree house, and be a 4 x 4 as I sometimes need to visit my granny who lives on top of a mountain up a dirt track."

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[TheBilgeRat]

Elon Musk must not fit into the correct mold for the new American Entrepreneur, which is odd considering he plays the political donations game like every other American billionaire. I personally cannot afford one of his cars, but if I was able to I can't imagine anything in that price range I'd rather buy. I'm just not much of an early adopter these days.

Re: illegal autonomous cars?

[avandesande]

Flow battery energy density is 1/10 th that of Lithium battery, so you are talking about 10,000# of liquid.

Re:illegal autonomous cars?

[hawguy]

Programmers are not infallible, so I say an autonomous car can also cause you to run a red light, or crash into a bridge pillar, whether you're sleeping, or not.

The success of automation in the aviation industry makes me think that autonomous cars will be a *lot* more reliable than human drivers. No technology is perfect, but it's almost certain to be better than people.

Re:illegal autonomous cars?

[im_thatoneguy]

Or it's like speeding. Sure it's illegal. But it's also mighty convenient.

"Yes officer I was totally paying attention to the road and I was just squinting into the sun."

How much will it cost.

[riverat1]

If the price is right 1,000 km range electric cars will signal the beginning of the end for IC engined cars.

Re:How much will it cost.

[Citizen of Earth]

Does the $1-million supercar signal the end of the compact car, too? I mean, the supercar is better, right?

Re: How much will it cost.

[WaffleMonster]

I would like to see range figures for a typical commuter.. In summer and winter. Unfortunately they are priced high enough we won't see that.

A range calculator is built into the Tesla website. No idea about its accuracy. You can change outdoor temperature, toggle AC/heating and speed. http://www.teslamotors.com/mod...

Re:How much will it cost.

[mark-t]

Only if you can recharge at least 50% in about the same amount of time as it takes to refill a car with gas.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Michael Woodhams]

What you're looking for is the Model 3 which does not yet exist, but has been Tesla's goal since inception. Everything we've seen up until now has been primarily done to gain experience and fund development towards the Model 3.

The Model 3 doesn't quite hit your targets - price US$35k, range 320km.

Re:How much will it cost.

[kamapuaa]

For people who want to drive more than 625 miles in a day? That is ridiculous.

You go home, you charge it overnight. It's like starting every day with a full tank of gas.

Re:How much will it cost.

[riverat1]

I don't know about you but 1,000 km is about as far as I care to drive in a day. I can recharge it overnight.

Re:How much will it cost.

[mark-t]

Not everybody has a power outlet where they park at home.

Re:How much will it cost.

[ShanghaiBill]

Only if you can recharge at least 50% in about the same amount of time as it takes to refill a car with gas.

This is only needed on long trips. For that, just rent a gas car, or rent a booster battery and put it in the trunk.

For day-to-day commuting use, an electric car is more convenient, because you can just recharge at home, at work, or at the mall, etc. So there is no need to go to a gas station at all. Also, there is no oil to change, no transmission to break, no gaskets, no air filter. You don't even need to replace the brake pads, because regenerative braking means they don't wear out.

Re: How much will it cost.

[ShanghaiBill]

The Model 3 doesn't quite hit your targets - price US$35k, range 320km.

Over the life of the car, you will easily save at least $10k by using electricity instead of gasoline. If you take that into account, you hit his $25k target.

Re: How much will it cost.

[jandjmh]

Our Tesla S85 performs just about exactly like the range calculator predicts. Their claculator is quite accurate - and it should be. Tesla's have a full time connection to the internet via cell towers (was 3G until about a month ago, now 4G on current production.) The data plan is bundled with the cars quite considerable purchase price. Tesla uses the connection to monitor every card and collect data about all sorts of performance metrics.They know if you have a single bad cell in the battery pack. They know where you drove, how fast, altitude, temperature, whether you were using the A/C or heat ....
Plenty of stats to know how the cars perform in the real world (and completely invade your privacy)

Re:How much will it cost.

[R3d M3rcury]

In fact, in some cities, very few people do.

But I'd also imagine those people don't need cars to get to work.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Ol Olsoc]

What you're looking for is the Model 3 which does not yet exist, but has been Tesla's goal since inception. Everything we've seen up until now has been primarily done to gain experience and fund development towards the Model 3.

The Model 3 doesn't quite hit your targets - price US$35k, range 320km.

I have a question though for the naysayers.

Why is the Tesla considered ridiculously overpriced, yet a pickup truck like the 2010 Ford F450 at over 64 thousand, is never mentioned by those who have an aneurysm when they hear the word "Tesla" mentioned? They don't even give a gas milage Here's a nice little list of acceptable and economical vehicles unlike the Tesla:http://www.autobytel.com/top-10-cars/most-expensive-cars/trucks/

35 K is fine - I'm waiting for the 4wd trail rated version.

Re:How much will it cost.

[Ol Olsoc]

Only if you have a home that can charge it where you are parked.

Not everybody lives in a house. In fact, in some cities, very few people do.

Well then, they don't buy one. Most people that live in those places don't have cars at all.

Re:How much will it cost.

[Ol Olsoc]

Not everybody has a power outlet where they park at home.

Why do you keep beating that one? What individual vehicle satisfies 100 percent of people needs or things they don't have? So now Tesla shouldn't be allowed to sell their vehicle because someone in New York City doesn't have a parking space with a charger?? Most people there don't have a parking space at all.

I drive Jeeps because of where and when I drive. A Ferrari won't work for me. But if you want one - have at it.

Re:How much will it cost.

[evilviper]

Not everybody lives in a house. In fact, in some cities, very few people do.

For the past year in California, landlords MUST allow tenants to install EV charging stations... It doesn't matter whether you live in a house, condo, apartment, etc., you can plug-in your car.

http://pipedot.org/story/2014-...

Re: How much will it cost.

[jandjmh]

Charging at home (plugged into a 240V 50A dryer outlet) adds about 30 miles of range for each hour of charging. So, drive 200 miles, come home, plug in and the car is topped back up in under 7 hours.
On trips, the supercharger stations (free to use and spaced within range on many interstates) add about 150 miles of range during a 30 minute stop. Superchargers are located next to places to eat and shop.
Driving from SF Bay area to Reno, we stop somewhere in the middle (there are a several choices at various distances) and have lunch. Can't quite make it all the way on one charge ....

Re:How much will it cost.

[Cramer]

Not when it takes hours to recharge it. I can go 500+ miles in my car, and then do it again 2 minutes later. (assuming the station's pumps aren't dog slow.)

Re: How much will it cost.

[Cramer]

CURRENTLY free. As a carrot to get people to various locations. When it becomes popular, it'll cease to be free, as it'll be a measurable cost to provide.

(And the little secret they don't tell people... repeated rapid charging reduces the life of the battery pack.)

Re: How much will it cost.

[Dahamma]

The range figures for a typical commuter are mostly irrelevant, since the typical commuter won't even get close to the max range in their daily commute, and they can easily charge overnight.

Re:How much will it cost.

[Cramer]

Bull. There are fluids to change, 'tho at much longer intervals and for very different reasons. (look under the hood some time.) There is a transmission, too, but it's vastly simpler than most cars. (you can direct drive the wheels, but there are patents that poo on that.)

You MOST CERTAINLY DO need to replace the brake pads. Regenerative braking does some work stopping the car, but it doesn't do ALL of it.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Dahamma]

Because they are utterly different vehicles for different uses. One is mostly a commuter car that spends the vast majority of its life in a garage or parking lot, and the other is a work vehicle where the owner's job often revolves around it.

Not that the F450 isn't overpriced, anyway. But people on /. don't talk about it because people on /. mostly don't live in the rural Midwest.

Re:How much will it cost.

[mark-t]

I'm not saying they shouldn't be allowed to sell their car, I'm just challenging the notion that a Tesla will ever start to be a contender against IC vehicles when the recharge times are not anything remotely comparable to how long it takes to fill a car with gasoline.

Making it good is the first step. Making it affordable is the second. Making it convenient is the third and final step. Miss any one of them and it won't compete.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Dahamma]

And how long it takes to recharge.

Mileage depends on conditions and usage. Recharge time is totally deterministic based on the charge time needed to fill the battery and the charger you use. Statistics are pointless, just do the math.

Re:How much will it cost.

[Dahamma]

If you live in a 6th floor flat, a $100K+ electric car that goes 650 miles on a charge is not for you, anyway, obviously.

Re:How much will it cost.

[mark-t]

It's also needed if you forget to plug in your car one night, where at least with a gasoline car you can make a brief pit stop on the way to work the next morning. 5 minutes to fill up a gasoline vehicle.

People like convenience. Denying that aspect of human nature is only living with blinders on.

Re:How much will it cost.

[geoskd]

You don't even need to replace the brake pads, because regenerative braking means they don't wear out.

Be a little cautious with that one. Regenerative braking requires a large enough battery to handle the charging current. The Tesla Batteries are fine, and you'll never need the actual brake pads. The $30k commuters like the leaf, volt and iMiev, do not have a large enough pack to absorb the full brunt of regenerative braking, so they use the brake pads a lot. It kills their actual range, and burns up the undersized pads they put on those cars. The only way to avoid the problem is to get a car with a large enough pack to do 0-60 in less than 8 seconds (braking is simply that same stunt in reverse...), or learn to drive extremely defensively: begin slowing down 1/2 mile from red lights and expected turns, keep at least 10 seconds following distance, etc...

The reality of the matter is that in order to have real regenerative braking, you need a pack that will give you at least 300 miles range. The only alternative is a design that uses ultra-caps to store some of the energy recovered during braking, a radically new (and better) battery chemistry than anything commercially available, or both.

Re: How much will it cost.

[fragMasterFlash]

and completely invade your privacy

Since when has loss of privacy every been too high of a price to pay for the smugness of technological superiority?

Re:How much will it cost.

[Dahamma]

Seriously, then don't get one. Also don't get a Hummer if you live in a crowded city, or any car at all if you live on a small island. That's why there are 100's of car models out there. This was about solving one problem with electric cars, which is limited range.

Re:How much will it cost.

[mark-t]

Solving limited range is a good thing.... but it's only the first of three steps that are needed to seriously be a contender for the "normal" type of car, which is what the post to which I initially responded suggested.

Making it affordable, which is what the above poster mentioned, is still only the second step. The third step is making it convenient. That means fast recharge time. Once an electric car, whether it is from Tesla or any other manufacturer, provides this, then you will start to see electric cars really taking off in terms of popularity, and being a contender for the everyday car that gasoline vehicles have enjoyed for decades.

Re:How much will it cost.

[Dahamma]

In fact "convenient" is just as much dependent on the usage as the range (actually, more so). Many people who may live in apartments that make it more difficult to charge at home have *free* chargers at their workplace (mine does). And in fact, plugin chargers mean you can charge it to some extent almost anywhere there is electricity (you can find supermarkets, shopping malls, even restaurants that have charging stations), unlike gasoline cars that make you go to a totally special purpose business - a gas station.

Re:How much will it cost.

[Jeremi]

I can go 500+ miles in my car, and then do it again 2 minutes later.

You can go for a ride inside your clothes dryer too, but why would you want to do something so unpleasant? Outside of a dire emergency, I can't imagine anyone wanting to do make two 6-hour trips with only a 2-minute break in between.

Here's something to try: find out how much time the average ICE car owner spends driving to gas stations, waiting in line, waiting for his car to refuel, paying for the gas, driving back, etc. Then find out how much time the average electric car owner actually spends waiting for his car to recharge. The results may surprise you.

Re: How much will it cost.

[cas2000]

that'll be great until the banksters on wall street walk away with your money, your investment is worthless, and then they whine at the government to get compensated a trillion or two for the inconvenience of stealing your money from you.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Jeremi]

CURRENTLY free. As a carrot to get people to various locations. When it becomes popular, it'll cease to be free, as it'll be a measurable cost to provide.

Tesla has promised that Superchargers would remain free to Tesla owners indefinitely, so if they renege on that promise to existing owners, there would likely be lawsuits.

Of course they could make charging non-free to people who buy new Teslas in the future, but given Tesla's high-end image, and the relatively low cost of providing the service, they'll probably just keep doing what they do now -- figuring out how much the average Tesla's lifetime use of the Supercharger network is likely to cost them, and bumping up each car's sale price by that amount.

Re:How much will it cost.

[Octorian]

Only if you can recharge at least 50% in about the same amount of time as it takes to refill a car with gas.

This is one place where everyone seems to miss the point.
For every day use, as everyone has already said, you charge overnight. The car has enough range for any reasonable day trip. (To all of you who insist that you need to drive round-trip 400 miles every day, uphill to the mountains, while towing a boat... Shut the hell up and stick with your pickup truck. You are not most people.)

For road trips, you don't "wait at a charger for the car to recharge." Everyone, please stop assuming this. Its wrong. Rather, you park your car at a supercharger when making the *normal* rest stops you'd make on a road trip anyway.

Think of it this way...
With a gas car: Drive for a while, stop somewhere to use the bathroom, perhaps get something to eat, spend 5 minutes at a gas station, get back on the road.
With a Tesla: Drive for a while, stop at a supercharger (and plug in), go use the bathroom, perhaps grab something to eat, and get back on the road.
The total length of time you spend at one of these stops really isn't all that different.

Re:How much will it cost.

[drinkypoo]

For the past year in California, landlords MUST allow tenants to install EV charging stations... It doesn't matter whether you live in a house, condo, apartment, etc., you can plug-in your car.

If the dwelling is rent-controlled or has less than five parking spaces, it's exempt, and the lessee has to maintain a million-dollar insurance policy on the installation... So it matters very much.

Re:How much will it cost.

[Octorian]

Actually, the Tesla does not have a transmission. Its a simple reduction gear on the motors, and that's it. They did experiment with a 2-speed transmission in the early days of the Roadster, but gave up on it. Transmissions in cars are mostly do deal with the speed/torque curve of internal combustion engines, which isn't really a problem with electric motors.

Re: How much will it cost.

[tompaulco]

The F450 IS overpriced, which is one of many reasons why I won't buy one. Others include, you can't park it in a parking spot (this applies to any normal sized pickup or sedan too), it uses too much gas, it won't fit in my garage, and it is a pickup truck.
Teslas are also overpriced, and also have other reasons for which I won't buy one.

Re: How much will it cost.

[ooshna]

but you wouldn't...

Re:How much will it cost.

[LynnwoodRooster]

I did that very thing last Friday. Ventura to Mountain View and back. Almost 660 miles round trip. Single day. I do it every month or so, for work. Of course, I ride a motorcycle and it was a beautiful ride, and I filled up twice each direction - but each stop only took 5 minutes.

Re: How much will it cost.

[ATMAvatar]

Don't forget the tax credit you can claim for purchasing it.

Re: How much will it cost.

[h33t l4x0r]

I also wouldn't give a 0% loan on 10K which gets paid back when my brand new car dies.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Ol Olsoc]

Because they are utterly different vehicles for different uses. One is mostly a commuter car that spends the vast majority of its life in a garage or parking lot, and the other is a work vehicle where the owner's job often revolves around it.

Not that the F450 isn't overpriced, anyway. But people on /. don't talk about it because people on /. mostly don't live in the rural Midwest.

In my work parking lot, there are a lot of Pickups, including dually rears, that have never been off road, nor used for anything more strenuous than grocery shopping.

the trucks that work for a living are mostly stripped down models that cost a whole lot less.

Even then - it's okay that people want to spend a lot of money on a truck. It's their money. I don't care

Same as with a Tesla. Slashdotters seem to really care about the money spent on that however.

Re:How much will it cost.

[David_Hart]

I can go 500+ miles in my car, and then do it again 2 minutes later.

You can go for a ride inside your clothes dryer too, but why would you want to do something so unpleasant? Outside of a dire emergency, I can't imagine anyone wanting to do make two 6-hour trips with only a 2-minute break in between.

Here's something to try: find out how much time the average ICE car owner spends driving to gas stations, waiting in line, waiting for his car to refuel, paying for the gas, driving back, etc. Then find out how much time the average electric car owner actually spends waiting for his car to recharge. The results may surprise you.

I would think that the average ICE owner is smart enough to choose a convenient gas station along one of their routes not to have to make a special trip to a gas station just for gas so that time would have been spent getting groceries, going to the bank, etc. Also, unless it is a tiny gas station I don't believe that I have ever had to wait in line for the pumps for very long. On the weekends during the summer and holidays along the interstates it can be a bit of a pain at times, but not during the normal work week. Pretty much the only time spent is actually at the pumps.

Re:How much will it cost.

[taustin]

Range by itself isn't enough. If it takes several hours to recharge, versus give minutes to gas up, it will have a very limited market.

Re:How much will it cost.

[Jeremi]

Pretty much the only time spent is actually at the pumps.

Okay, let's say a smart ICE owner spends 5 minutes a week refueling his gasoline car.

The next part is, how much time does an electric car owner spend per week waiting for his car to recharge? More than 5 minutes per week, or less?

Re:How much will it cost.

[catchblue22]

If the price is right 1,000 km range electric cars will signal the beginning of the end for IC engined cars.

The 1000km number doesn't actually seem that far fetched. The Model S is a hugely heavy performance car. At its best it does 0 to 60mph in 2.8 seconds. If they built a car that still had a lot of batteries but was instead optimized for range rather than performance, I can see how they might accomplish this.

On the other side, Tesla is working on a new version of the Roadster. If they can make a family sedan do 0 to 60 in 2.8 seconds, imagine what they can do if they design a pure sports car. It might have the best acceleration of any production car ever made. Perhaps 2.2 seconds? Perhaps better? Why not. The model S is a luxury sedan and yet look what it does.

Re:How much will it cost.

[Cramer]

How about asking your electric car friends how far they can go from home without any worries. And how far they actually drive every day. Range Anxiety is a real thing. Most people only drive a few dozen miles per day, yet few have electric vehicles. (or use public transit for that matter.) Why? Because electric cars are more expensive to purchase, require various additional items (eg. chargers), require planning ahead (have the car charged, know how far you need to go, and where there are chargers on your route), and finally the limited range and long recharge times scare people.

As for driving thousands of miles, plenty of people do just that. You fail to consider a car going such distances will normally have more than one person in it capable of driving. I've driven/ridden, in one shot, from Birmingham AL to Raleigh NC a few times, RDU-ATL several times, RDU-DC several times... The ability to drive more than 200-300 miles per day, at any given moment, is something electric cars cannot do. And even when they can go 1000 miles, it will still take hours to recharge them. (Granted, people will have far less apprehension with a 1000 mile range car.)

Re: How much will it cost.

[germansausage]

I see a whole lot of humungous F550 whatchamacallit pick up trucks (what are they picking up? Grand pianos? Elephants?) at the park and ride. I assume thereby that most of them are not serious heavy haul work trucks, but daily commuting vehicles.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Michael Woodhams]

"35 K is fine - I'm waiting for the 4wd trail rated version."

The model X ('crossover utility vehicle') is being launched sometime about now (I think a few hours ago.) As far as I know that is as close to 'trail rated' as they're currently planning to make. It probably has a price tag around $70k+ however. There is a 4wd version of the model S, so I expect model X will at least have that as an option, perhaps standard.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Cramer]

Tesla's charger, sure. "We're only installing those at dealerships."

Lots of places around have a token few electric car charging stations. They are, for the most part, all free. But as soon as there's a demand for dozens of stations and they're being used constantly, trust me, they will no longer be free. (in many parts of the world, they aren't free already.)

Re: How much will it cost.

[Shompol]

I googled "high yield mutual fund" for you. here it is Enjoy your "free" gas.

Re:How much will it cost.

[Cramer]

That's a "transmission". Directly driving the wheels from the electric motor runs into a patent some idiot holds. (I recall Toyota being sued over it years ago. The Lexus AWD design has electric real wheels.)

Re: How much will it cost.

[Cramer]

*I* rarely drive that far, but I know several people who drive much further several times a year. (family all over the country. flying is too expensive.) Pretty much my entire family is within 300mi.

Re: How much will it cost.

[davester666]

They promise to only sell the data to anybody who will pay for it.

Re:How much will it cost.

[segwonk]

640 miles ought to be enough for anyone.

Re: How much will it cost.

[riverat1]

1,000 km (621 miles) is around 10 hours of driving. That's about as long as I care to spend on the road regardless of where I'm going. Even if you're going to drive longer you're probably going to stop just for a break in the driving where you can add some more charge. If you're driving that far on an IC engine you'll have to stop to fuel up (I know there are a few vehicles that have the range for that but mostly it's trucks with multiple fuel tanks).

Re: How much will it cost.

[riverat1]

It's still cheaper than the equivalent amount of gasoline.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Cramer]

When you get tired of driving, get out of the driver's seat so someone else can drive. This is a few minute stop, not an hour or more. Refueling with gas (or diesel) takes minutes, not hours. Sure, you can stop for dinner, but I generally don't do that every 2 hours.

Re:How much will it cost.

[turbidostato]

"If you live in a 6th floor flat, a $100K+ electric car that goes 650 miles on a charge is not for you, anyway, obviously."

Still, how is it that a $100K gas car is?

Re: How much will it cost.

[gnupun]

I was watching a video about model S manufacturing. The Telsa's power train consists of a small cylinder connected to the rear axle. The cylinder consists mainly of an inverter (to convert DC to 3-phase AC), a 3-phase AC induction motor and a single speed transmission. The battery is 1200 pounds and a couple of inches thick under the car cabin.

Given such a simple design, can't an electric car be sold for $10,000-$15,000 (plus whatever the battery costs)?

Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

Re: How much will it cost.

[mark-t]

If you are fillnig up on the way to work in the morning because you forgot to fill up last night, you aren't going to be spending 30 minutes doing grocery shopping.

Re:How much will it cost.

[DrVxD]

Not everyone lives in California.

Re:How much will it cost.

[someoneOtherThanMe]

Charging at home every day, assuming an outdoor parking spot in the yard. he certainly spends more than that untangling the cables, plugging in, putting the cables back...

Re:How much will it cost.

[evilviper]

The devil you say!!!

Re: How much will it cost.

[AmiMoJo]

For most people a 1000km range car is pointless. They will want to stop long before doing 1000km. More infrastructure is the key.

I've done long trips in a Nissan Leaf. I need to charge for about 20 minutes every 60-70 miles. I could go maybe twice that distance before wanting a break, but that's still less than a Model S can do. Current EVs are good enough, they just need to get the price down and increase the number of chargers.

Re:How much will it cost.

[dargaud]

I imagine apartment buildings will start installing chargers in their parking lots. I'm in an apt, and all it would take is a vote at the yearly owners' meeting.

Re:How much will it cost.

[kuzb]

The price will be wrong. It'll get jammed full of toys and sold for $80k+ like every other luxury thing they sell.

Re: How much will it cost.

[kuzb]

It it was their goal since inception, they're failing horribly. They could have built this vehicle a long time ago if they weren't so focused on building the coolest possible car on 4 wheels. All they really need to do is stop trying to cram more toys and acceleration performance in and start focusing on the parts that are actually important.

Re:How much will it cost.

[TheRealSync]

Charging at home every day, assuming an outdoor parking spot in the yard. he certainly spends more than that untangling the cables, plugging in, putting the cables back...

No I don't. I arrive at home, plug it in - the outlet is right next to the car. It takes around 10-15 seconds; I don't even think about it.

Re: How much will it cost.

[KGIII]

It's called cherry picking. They're picking a selective vehicle and hoping nobody is aware of the vast differences between a Tesla (of any kind) and an F-450. I own two F-series trucks. They are really quite nice and I own them for a reason. That reason is not long trips or commuting. One is my plow truck, the other one is owned by me but used by someone who works for me often enough that they should have the ability to haul stuff.

Re:How much will it cost.

[NormalVisual]

But I'd also imagine those people don't need cars to get to work.

The size of the parking lots at most apartment complexes in the U.S. would tend to argue the opposite.

Re:How much will it cost.

[KGIII]

I drive more than that on a fairly regular basis. However, I'd not take a Tesla on that trip and have plenty of other options for my transit needs or wants. Imagine that, a vehicle doesn't fit every lifestyle but is niche based? I'm still planning on buying a Tesla (I'm an automobile aficionado, how could I not?) but with this announcement I am going to wait to see what happens.

Re: How much will it cost.

[DirkDaring]

$35k - $7500 in tax credits.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Beezlebub33]

No. First, as your parenthesis note, batteries are a big part of the cost of the vehicle, so make that $25k. Second, just as the cost of making a bottle of pill is only a dollar but still costs hundreds, the 'cost' of a vehicle has only partly to do with the cost of the parts that make it up. There is the cost of the factory (all those robots), insurance, salaries (though the robots reduce those), R&D, design, advertising, safety testing, QA, transportation, show rooms, and profit.

Finally, the (current) Telsa isn't a $15k car. Fit and finish, inside and outside materials, suspension quality and design, electronics mean that even without the cost of the powertrain, it's going to be an expensive car. When you get in a cheap econobox car, it is different from getting into a (for example) BMW 7-series, but they are made from the same fundamental components. You _could_ make an electric car that costs $15k without the batteries; in fact, you can buy one! Go look at the Mitsubishi i-MiEV. Is that what you want? Of course not; you want a Tesla!!

Re:How much will it cost.

[DirkDaring]

If you have an apartment that costs millions I'm pretty certain you have a garage you can use and charge in.

Re:How much will it cost.

[Gavagai80]

If an electric car were cheaper than a gas car, I and a lot of other people wouldn't care if I could never charge at home and had to drive to the nearest charging station and leave it there for hours. I know there's one at the library, I could just read a book while I wait.

Re:How much will it cost.

[DirkDaring]

Wrong for who?

I don't need a 650 mile electric car. 250 miles is fine. How much will that be? Elon says $35k, -$7500 in tax. $27,500. Cheaper than the average car.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Beezlebub33]

Congratulations for finding some edge cases for which this electric vehicle won't work. Different vehicles for different people and lifestyles; I have absolutely no need for a full sized pickup, but I know people that do. A 1000km electric will work for the vast majority of the people.

Re:How much will it cost.

[AmiMoJo]

Charging is already more convenient than pumping liquid fuel. No need to go out of your way to do it most of the time, just plug in at home, at work or at your destination. Most of the time when I go shopping my car is charging while I do it.

When doing long distance trips I normally stop for about 20 minutes to charge every 60 miles or so, in a Nissan Leaf. With a Tesla that goes to a 30 minute stop every 200 miles or so. Charging speed isn't linear, it's fastest between about 20% and 80%, so on longer runs you tend to keep it in that sweet spot. I'd stop for half an hour every three hours anyway, so it adds nothing to journey time.

Re:How much will it cost.

[DirkDaring]

Well you can call it a transmission, but a 1 speed fixed gearbox is nothing at all even remotely close to a transmissions on gas cars.

Re: How much will it cost.

[hattig]

Except you're likely paying for the car monthly, not up front. The most you can do is invest that ~$200 (not working out the real amount) a month saving, whilst enjoying the lovely air quality your car generates at the point of use.

Re: How much will it cost.

[FlyHelicopters]

Over the life of the car, you will easily save at least $10k by using electricity instead of gasoline. If you take that into account, you hit his $25k target.

Maybe... unless gas prices stay low and perhaps get lower.

Keep in mind that as more and more people switch to EVs, the demand for gas will drop and cut into the price.

I just filled up my car the other day with E85, first time I've done that, but I thought I'd give it a try to see what all the fuss was about.

$1.49 a gallon and while my economy is about 2 mpg lower than one E10, the lower price more than makes up for that.

Less than $25 to fill the tank for nearly 400 miles of driving range. An EV would likely be less than that, but it is a trivial cost at the end of the day after paying for the car and insurance on it.

Re: How much will it cost.

[gnupun]

But in general, an electric car that has 3 or 4 main components should be cheaper compared to a several dozen component IC car, correct? An IC car sells for $15k to $20k even after factories, R&D, QA etc all those things you mention. So why can't they sell an electric car in the same price range given it doesn't have any radically new technology (motors have been around for ages)?

Re: How much will it cost.

[hattig]

If flying is too expensive, I guess a Tesla is going to be too expensive too...

But yeah, if you are one of the few people that do this, then maybe a Tesla isn't the right car right now.

This is also another reason why I think that Tesla really should concentrate on the UK and Europe more, as it's very rare that people do such long journeys (apart from the EU-wide festival goers that drive from England to Slovenia for obscure heavy metal festivals).

Re: How much will it cost.

[hattig]

You'll have traded in the car for a newer Tesla by then.

And the sap that buys the second hand Tesla from Tesla will likely get the same guarantee.

The supercharger network is a classic sunk cost once installed (and Tesla are installing their own solar farms too IIRC to reduce or negate their electric bills) that has low ongoing costs, so free electricity isn't a massive burden for Tesla to have.

Re: How much will it cost.

[PPalmgren]

Let's be fair here, when you own a truck, you will never only use it for grocery shopping. When you own a truck, you become everybody's best friend. Towing, furniture, and lawn supply requests from neighbors become a regular occurrence, almost weekly. If you aren't helping directly, they'll definitely ask to borrow the truck for a day or two. I never owned one, but my mother did for her business - she couldn't have been happier the day she got rid of it for the very reasons I mentioned.

Pickups tend to end up partly as community vehicles, and because the person who has one sees it get so much use, a lot owners want to keep it around for that reliability. There are a lot of daily towing and carrying needs in the suburban community lifestyle.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Beezlebub33]

I'm no expert, but it appears that the cost drivers are the battery and economies of scale / experience. Yes, an electric car is fundamentally simpler, with fewer moving parts and (in theory) a simpler drive train. But, the battery dominates the cost. If you increase volume by an order of magnitude or two, prices would drop significantly. That's one of the main reasons for the giant battery factory and powerwall.

Re: How much will it cost.

[FlyHelicopters]

Why is the Tesla considered ridiculously overpriced, yet a pickup truck like the 2010 Ford F450 at over 64 thousand

The F450 is a commercial vehicle built for a completely different purpose than a Tesla Model S

But ok, I'll play.

The new 2016 F-150 Limited that is coming out in a few months will be about $60K.

However, that is loaded, top of the line, with everything in it. A loaded, top of the line Tesla Model S is north of $100K. It also has far less utility than a F-150 does, so they STILL aren't the same thing.

Now if you want to compare it to a Merc S class, sure, go ahead, about the same price, but a Merc is just a status symbol like the Model S is.

You can get the features and function of the Model S for half the price in a gas version.

Re: How much will it cost.

[XXeR]

plugged into a 240V 50A dryer

50A for a dryer outlet isn't standard...does the car really require that, or was it a typo?

Re:How much will it cost.

[FlyHelicopters]

They are already a contender against IC. The range is the last bastion where they don't beat the crap out of them.

Lord what are you smoking?

Range? Range is not the issue, for most people an EV makes a lot of sense for a second vehicle today, right now.

The real issue is price, and while it will come down, it will take longer than Musk wants it to.

The Model S is expensive... you can buy a car just as nice for half the price that burns dead dinos...

Re:How much will it cost.

[ThosLives]

You're forgetting the loss of freedom there though, which has a cost. Consider a gasoline car with 5 miles fuel remaining. Consider an electric car with 5 miles charge remaining.

How long must either car wait before embarking on a trip? Say, because there is an emergency situation? The gasoline car has maybe a 5 minute delay to refuel the tank to full capacity. The electric - best case maybe is you can get to a car rental place, but that's still probably a 30 minute or more delay and much higher cost.

That "convenience factor" of hydrocarbon fuels is a real thing, and it's a real value. Going to an electric vehicle really does need to include that worst-case" trip initiation lag cost.

If you can get electric cars to charge at 50 miles/minute (instead of the current best, what, 5 miles per minute?) you will solve this problem and everyone will readily accept electric vehicles.

I would take a 250 mile range electric at 50 miles/minute recharge over a 600 mile range electric at 5 miles/minute recharge without hesitation.

Re: How much will it cost.

[nine-times]

Because they are utterly different vehicles for different uses. One is mostly a commuter car that spends the vast majority of its life in a garage or parking lot, and the other is a work vehicle where the owner's job often revolves around it.

This ignores the large number of people who buy pickups and SUVs for commuter use anyway. Because obviously you can't drive your kids to school in a sedan. You'd look like a wimp.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Ol Olsoc]

"35 K is fine - I'm waiting for the 4wd trail rated version."

The model X ('crossover utility vehicle') is being launched sometime about now (I think a few hours ago.) As far as I know that is as close to 'trail rated' as they're currently planning to make. It probably has a price tag around $70k+ however. There is a 4wd version of the model S, so I expect model X will at least have that as an option, perhaps standard.

It's getting there. Crossovers are a start - although I suspect I'm being overly hopeful, Something along the line of a Jeep Grand Cherokee would be good.

Re: How much will it cost.

[shilly]

Well not really, as you have to use the fund to pay for the gas!

Re: How much will it cost.

[shilly]

They do in Amsterdam!

http://www.taxielectric.nl/en/

Re: How much will it cost.

[deathguppie]

And the engine maintenance?

Was that free too?

According to Edmunds.com the Nissan Leaf has the lowest TCO of any car over five years.

No Engine, no transmission. The braking system powers the battery which greatly reduces the amound of time your pads actually contact the disk. What equipment there is in the car is fully enclosed from the weather unlike an ICE that is fully exposed to the road and weather while you drive, corroding wires and hoses.

Re: How much will it cost.

[bkr1_2k]

You're making large assumptions about that. I know plenty of people who pay cash for cars, new or used. Probably not the norm but certainly far from unrealistic.

Re:How much will it cost.

[shilly]

You leave a 100k car on the street while you are 6 floors up each night??

Re: How much will it cost.

[bkr1_2k]

Your mother is either incredibly nice or incredibly naive, I'm not sure which. My neighbors wouldn't dare ask to borrow my car. As for the rest, there at least 15 pickup trucks in the parking lot of my office right now. We all live/work in relatively upscale (solidly "middle class" but McMansion style living) environments and probably 3 of those pickups ever get used for anything other than light duty similar to what I do with a roof rack on my sedans. I know for a fact that I've towed more with my Honda Crosstour than all but one of those trucks have towed. Most pickups on the road in urban areas are either stripped down as the GP stated or they're just "manly" commuter vehicles. A lot like Hummers and the giant SUVs.

Re: How much will it cost.

[holmstar]

To fully charge a 70 kWh battery, assuming 95% efficiency, would take 6.14 hours on 240V 50A. That said, it would be rare that the battery would be drained to near empty. Also, it is possible to charge using a lower amp outlet but it would take longer.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Ol Olsoc]

It's called cherry picking. They're picking a selective vehicle and hoping nobody is aware of the vast differences between a Tesla (of any kind) and an F-450.

No, cherry picking is taking data out of context.

I specifically asked why no one is complaining about those very specific pickups. My comparison is the data.

And why, would I have done that? The answer is pretty simple. They are in the price range of the Teslas. No Pickup truck hate, I've owned a few in my time, and have nothing against them, although I do note that their popularity has raised the prices a bit beyond what I prefer to pay for something I'm going to beat.

I could have picked any other vehicle in that price range, but I chose pickup trucks because they are popular, and therefore the demand raises the price. And I don't hear anyone complaining about that.

Re:How much will it cost.

[shilly]

If we're talking about convenience, then we have to talk about the whole of convenience, not just the convenience benefits of IC.

There are significant convenience benefits to an electric car:
- Always charged in the morning -- for many people, this means giving up having to go to gas stations
- Fewer moving parts = fewer breakdowns, fewer services

Re:How much will it cost.

[shilly]

You *might* not be able to, but most EVs have cords that allow them to be charged from standard outlets from time to time.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Ol Olsoc]

Most pickups on the road in urban areas are either stripped down as the GP stated or they're just "manly" commuter vehicles. A lot like Hummers and the giant SUVs.

side note: My wife calls the really outrageous ones "Penis compensation vehicles".

There's a fellow lives down the road from us who she swears had a terrible accident or something. He has a Dodge Ram, lifted and with humongous tires, dual 6 inch stack exhausts, needs a ladder to get into the cab, that never sees anything more strenuous than cruising around the city block.

Re: How much will it cost.

[DirkDaring]

You can play that game with pretty much any car of any class. Regardless, it's only a matter of time until electric cars cost less than ICE cars. ICE cars are getting more expensive due to more complex engines, while electric cars are steadily dropping in price as battery technology and cost materials improves.

Yes, they cost more now. Quite a bit more. If you don't want one - don't buy it.

Re:How much will it cost.

[b0bby]

You can buy a nice car for half the price, but it won't be just as nice. And it won't have the acceleration of the Tesla.
My car is over 10 years old, and I won't be buying a new one anytime soon, but if I had the cash for a luxury car I would certainly get the Tesla.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Ol Olsoc]

$35k - $7500 in tax credits.

Just out of curiosity, were you bothered by the tax breaks that Escalade owners used to get?

The section 179 loophole? http://www.section179.org/sect...

http://abcnews.go.com/Business...

We had some folks in our neighborhood where the lady of the house had a "side business" and drove a Hummer or Escalade or Excursion, with a little magnetic sign placed on the rear of their "business" I never knew you needed an Excursion for a scented candle business - anyhow, it was always a scam, I think they just took the writeoffs, and folded the tent after a few years, then created another business.

Until the abuse became so bad they changed the laws.

Re:How much will it cost.

[FlyHelicopters]

If you had the cash for a luxury car, you might get a Tesla... Have you driven what else $100K buys you these days?

Just being expensive doesn't make it a luxury car, nor does it come with the service that you get from a luxury dealership.

Maybe you would buy it, but you'd be crazy to not at least look at your other options.

BTW, you say the car that is half the price isn't as nice. Are you 100% sure that is an absolute fact? You'd be shocked what $50K will buy you in a car these days. Heck, $35K will buy you a REALLY nice car these days.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Ol Olsoc]

The F450 is a commercial vehicle built for a completely different purpose than a Tesla Model S

I'm not talking about purpose, I'm talking about price and popularity. I'm well aware that one is a truck, and one isn't.

The reactions of some folks goes a long way to proving my point, as they look at the comparison of the price, and read it as an attack upon pickup trucks. It isn't.

Re:How much will it cost.

[Muad'Dave]

... or learn to drive extremely defensively: begin slowing down 1/2 mile from red lights and expected turns, keep at least 10 seconds following distance, etc...

NO NO NO!!! The world has enough Prius drivers already!

Re:How much will it cost.

[Ol Olsoc]

Not everybody has a power outlet where they park at home.

Why do you keep beating that one? What individual vehicle satisfies 100 percent of people needs or things they don't have?

My current car satisfies 99% of my needs, which is damn close enough.

My bad writing there. Sorry about that. I was trying to say that not every vehicle will be the right vehicle for everyone. A lot of people aren't right for Teslas. Or Jeeps, or Pickup trucks, or Family vans.

Re your comment - it's pretty much the same for me. Some times I wish I had a truck, but then there are some pickup rental places, or the local Home Depot.

Re:How much will it cost.

[Cro Magnon]

Even those of us who live in houses might have problems. My previous house didn't have off-street parking. Neither did most of the houses on that block. My current house has a driveway, but I'd need an extention cord to reach the house. Houses with garages are the minority in my area.

Re:How much will it cost.

[Anubis IV]

Completely agree with the reference, of course, but the thing I don't get is why people are hung up on thinking that a single car must fit ALL of their needs. Most American families have two cars. Keep the EV around for day-to-day, in-town commuting, then bust out the old IC when your family does its annual road trip. Not exactly rocket science, and you get to start enjoying the benefits of EVs immediately.

Re: How much will it cost.

[PPalmgren]

Or, she's fairly normal as a nice neighbor and you're the exception. Possibly because you're a cynical asshole know-it-all and no one wants to associate. Claiming to know what everyone in your office does on their spare time with their vehicles is incredibly pompous.

No one wants to borrow a car, everyone wants to borrow a truck, especially people with big yard projects. Most people I know who have trucks, actually use the trucks, and all of them have helped others with their truck. Of the who guys with the bigger trucks that always look clean, one has an RV and one has a boat.

But, if demonizing people who own trucks makes you feel better, keep on keeping on. And for the record, I own a standard commuter and have received truck help twice, once from the mother and once from a neighbor.

Re: How much will it cost.

[rch7]

They are making cars, not doing some fundamental battery technology research. As Musk has stated recently, he is not interested in research that much, "send him a working sample". This what you would expect from any automaker. As technology was not here until recently, all the great hype didn't helped to create EV suitable for mass market. It is either very expensive low production toy or just expensive short range city vehicle. You may ask whatever you want, but when it is impossible, it is impossible.
As technology is getting here now, we will see more practical mass-market EVs from every automaker around. So far it doesn't even look that Tesla will be first with their Model 3.

Re: How much will it cost.

[tehcyder]

The range figures for a typical commuter are mostly irrelevant, since the typical commuter won't even get close to the max range in their daily commute, and they can easily charge overnight.

0 Exactly. People seem happy enough charging their smartphone every night.

Re:How much will it cost.

[tehcyder]

But I'd also imagine those people don't need cars to get to work. The size of the parking lots at most apartment complexes in the U.S. would tend to argue the opposite.

Then you can build a charging point at the side of each parking space.

Re: How much will it cost.

[myrdos2]

The main cost of driving an electric car is not the actual electricity, it's the battery. At the end of ten years your battery will be shot, costing at least $10,000 to replace but possibly more.

Re: How much will it cost.

[rch7]

Just scale of bigger factory doesn't reduce battery price that much. At some time Musk was talking about 30% or so as a big achievement, and we don't know what exactly that 30% included. Large part of LiOn battery is cobalt price, which is dictated by market, not end factory.
Price can only reduced a lot by research and new technology. Like silicon anodes getting into production now, nanotechnology, and so on.

Re: How much will it cost.

[avandesande]

I know lots of truck nuts and not a single one of them has a F450. Where did you come up with this example? I knew one that had a F350, but they had a fabrication business and used it to haul heavy equipment around.

Re:How much will it cost.

[rch7]

It would mean that you would be only 50% electric than, assuming 2 drivers in family. Why pretend being some EV fundamentalist than at all? You can buy a Volt and it would be 80%-90% electric, unlimited range, and most likely drive on gas outside the city only, where smog is not an issue. And most people just don't have extra space in garage or want to decorate their front yard with old junk cars, that may be not a good choice for road trip because of their reliability anyway.

Re:How much will it cost.

[kamapuaa]

You are seriously concerned that you might have an emergency, and need to drive more than 600 miles, and having to stop and re-charge for an hour would just make the emergency worse? Has this ever happened to you?

It's like you're coming up with bizarre scenarios just to justify your current preferences, or perhaps it's a sour grapes issue that you can't afford an expensive car.

Similarly, you could conceivably have an emergency situation where you need to drive a mariachi band to a wedding, but that doesn't mean every single car should have the ability to sit art least eight. Or you could conceivably need to get to the plastic surgeon right away for an emergency rhinoplasty, but that doesn't mean every car should be able to reach 150 mph.

Re: How much will it cost.

[MooseTick]

You friends could also rent a car for those occasional long trips. You can generally rent a car for under $30/day with unlimited mileage. Then you can go as far as you like, plus put all those miles on someone else's vehicle.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Ol Olsoc]

I know lots of truck nuts and not a single one of them has a F450. Where did you come up with this example? I knew one that had a F350, but they had a fabrication business and used it to haul heavy equipment around.

It's a truck - it's a price. Trucks are popular. That's my point, not hating on the 450. You want that truck, buy that truck, you want the Tesla, buy the Tesla.

It's all good, yet you hear a shitload of people bitching about how expensive the Tesla is, and you shouldn't want one because of that expense. Buy my trucking buddies would cum in their pants if one of them would drive up in a loaded 450. But they cannot see the difference because they innately love pickup trucks, yet find electric cars threatening and don't like electric cars.

Re: How much will it cost.

[DirkDaring]

Yes, I can call it free. Because it's free! Just because it might not be free in the future doesn't make it not free now.

Re:How much will it cost.

[DirkDaring]

Over 10 hours of commuting...

I have no words.

Re:How much will it cost.

[DirkDaring]

With the Chevy Volt and Leaf you can buy a pad that when you park over it it charges you up automatically over wireless. I'd bet Telsa has something similar in the works.

Re: How much will it cost.

[EndlessNameless]

Maybe... unless gas prices stay low and perhaps get lower.

Historically, that does not happen. (At least not over the long term, which is the timeframe implied by vehicle ownership.)

While the strict value proposition of electrical vehicles is somewhat debatable at present, let's not pretend it's going to get any better.

I fully expect gas-guzzlers to be dinosaurs in my lifetime. I'm not sure if my next car will be electric, but I hope the durability of my current vehicle and the advances in battery tech make it so.

Re: How much will it cost.

[EndlessNameless]

Just out of curiosity, were you bothered by the tax breaks that Escalade owners used to get?

People were pissed about the Escalade/Hummer tax breaks because it was blatant abuse---it was intended for business that required special vehicles to operate. Likewise, people were happy when the loophole was closed.

The credit for electrical vehicles it deliberately targeted at the consumer/commuter market to encourage adoption there.

I actually prefer the tax credit as a means of promoting new tech. Compared to government loans and other subsidies, the buyer's credit only encourages the companies which bring a compelling product to market. If your company makes a crap product that no one buys, you shouldn't get anything out of the government.

Re: How much will it cost.

[KGIII]

They're entirely different things. They're not even remotely similar. The only similarities they have is you can put people in them and they have wheels and brakes. Hell, the Tesla doesn't even have big breaks. They're not something you can compare with one another. Pick a BMW or something. I don't complain about the price but at least pick something that actually compares.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Ol Olsoc]

They're entirely different things. They're not even remotely similar. The only similarities they have is you can put people in them and they have wheels and brakes. Hell, the Tesla doesn't even have big breaks. They're not something you can compare with one another. Pick a BMW or something. I don't complain about the price but at least pick something that actually compares.

For crying out loud, step down from teh analogy bandwagon.

Let's take the vehicles out of it completely.

We put up with conditions in something or someone we like that we don't put up with in something we don't like.

The Tesla is considered too expensive by people who already don't like it while other similarly priced things are no problem to them whatsoever because they like them.

Re: How much will it cost.

[EndlessNameless]

You're asking a question without understanding the basic economics. Car batteries are in the $10K+ range. That is for the cheapest ones, and the price scales with capacity.

Yes, seriously, it's like 1/3 of the cost of the car for all-electric vehicles.

So they basically dump the ICE and some parts of the transmission. But they still had to do a lot of work to get a high-performance transmission working (so I assume that's not cheap), and they need a very heavy and expensive battery.

Re: How much will it cost.

[KGIII]

Alright. Either way, I'm buying one but am going to wait now - I was going to purchase one this spring. I'd already pretty much set it up, even. It won't do everything I want it to do but it will come a lot closer with the range that is expected to be here in a couple of years. I'm a true automobile aficionado. How could I not buy a Tesla? I almost bought a Roadster way back when. I decided against it - the tech wasn't mature enough.

Re:How much will it cost.

[im_thatoneguy]

How long must either car wait before embarking on a trip? Say, because there is an emergency situation?

If it's an emergency use an Uber. Emergency means you spend money on a cab/airplane ticket/911 Ambulence.

How long must either car wait before embarking on a trip?

If you have a garage you don't have to factor stopping for gas on the way out of town. I often have to stop and refuel before leaving on a road trip. With an electric car I could just plugin the night before and be ready to leave without a detour.

That "convenience factor" of hydrocarbon fuels is a real thing, and it's a real value.

There is nothing more convenient than fueling up in your own home inside of a garage out of the wind and rain.

Re: How much will it cost.

[FlyHelicopters]

Historically, that does not happen.

No, but that is because nothing has been a serious contender for gas cars either.

If 50% of vehicles really were replaced tomorrow by EVs, I think you'd see the price of gas down at a dollar or so per gallon.

Supply and demand, there is nothing about gas that says it has to be X price, it is just a S/D curve.

We shall see, there are a lot of chess pieces still on the board and calling it this early is a big challenge. :)

Re: How much will it cost.

[thoromyr]

Do you see commuter vehicles? Maybe its because I'm in the midwest, but we have a *lot* of pickup/SUV commuter vehicles. That are rarely, if ever, used to haul.

A friend of mine talked that talk and drove pickups as commuter vehicle for years. He lives in the country, but the truth is he basically never used the trucks as trucks. He finally gave in and started saving himself a lot of money by driving a car.

The reality is that most people hardly ever need the hauling capacity of a truck or SUV. And for those that live in the country a farm truck paired with a commuter car is a far better deal.

Related fun factoid: four wheel drive doesn't keep vehicles out of ditches. Possibly because the driver thinks he can drive like an idiot and the vehicle will miraculously save him from himself. Its amusing watching a 2WD truck with a winch rescue a 4WD vehicle.

Re: How much will it cost.

[thoromyr]

The big hipped trucks with the spotless paint job, nary a trace of mud and a perfect bedliner. Yeah... they are using them to haul *all* the time. Not.

Your experience is different than mine. Its all anecdotal. But some of the pickup owners want to make extra sure you know that they are compensating and buy those plastic testicles to put on their truck. Its hard to deny that.

Re:How much will it cost.

[LynnwoodRooster]

Hey, it's a great ride! Up the 101, back down much of the PCH... I've gone that far on a Saturday just for fun. To me, it's not a "commute" it's a chance to get on my motorcycle and get out of town and just spend 5 hours alone. To me, it's great. Now, traveling into LA with the gridlock down there (where it takes over 2 hours to cover 10 miles) would be hell. But 5 hours at 70 MPH on a bike? Heaven for me...

Re:How much will it cost.

[turbidostato]

"You leave a 100k car on the street while you are 6 floors up each night??"

No, I rent a parking place under my building. But then, I have not to worry to re-supply it overnight.

Re:How much will it cost.

[Anubis IV]

I didn't say residents. I said families.

Re:How much will it cost.

[turbidostato]

"If you have an apartment that costs millions I'm pretty certain you have a garage you can use and charge in."

My ~1000 sq ft apartment doesn't cost millions while it's not cheap either (quite centric on a major city), I have a garage (rented) but still no power outlet anywhere near nor, probably, any chance to get it without non-trivial investments. Probably just like the millions of people leaving in cities.

Re:How much will it cost.

[shilly]

If you rent a secure parking spot, seems to me you at least know the people who could, if they saw the value, provide you with a place for re-charging an electric vehicle. I mean, in your particular case, you're not going to ask, and they might have said no, but you began this by thread by implying that there was a physical impossibility to get an EV charged in your apartment, and that's clearly not the case. There may be logistical issues (first-come first-served parking) or commercial issues (the landlord won't pay for it), but there aren't physical issues.

Re:How much will it cost.

[goose-incarnated]

You can buy a nice car for half the price, but it won't be just as nice. And it won't have the acceleration of the Tesla.

I don't know about all the other "nice" things you want, but for acceleration at half the price, an Ariel Atom or Caterham CSR should come close. If you're handy with tools (like I am) you can build a factory five for $35k, or get it built for you for $65k - one of those racecars that *will* outperform the Tesla 0-60.

Seriously though, if you're shopping in the Tesla price range and you just want raw acceleration you're spoiled for choice; more so if you don't mind running on two wheels. Tesla Model S is a fast car, granted, but the world is filled with cheap, fast cars.

Re:How much will it cost.

[goose-incarnated]

Only if you can recharge at least 50% in about the same amount of time as it takes to refill a car with gas.

This is one place where everyone seems to miss the point. For every day use, as everyone has already said, you charge overnight. The car has enough range for any reasonable day trip. (To all of you who insist that you need to drive round-trip 400 miles every day, uphill to the mountains, while towing a boat... Shut the hell up and stick with your pickup truck. You are not most people.)

For road trips, you don't "wait at a charger for the car to recharge." Everyone, please stop assuming this. Its wrong. Rather, you park your car at a supercharger when making the *normal* rest stops you'd make on a road trip anyway.

Think of it this way... With a gas car: Drive for a while, stop somewhere to use the bathroom, perhaps get something to eat, spend 5 minutes at a gas station, get back on the road. With a Tesla: Drive for a while, stop at a supercharger (and plug in), go use the bathroom, perhaps grab something to eat, and get back on the road. The total length of time you spend at one of these stops really isn't all that different.

While I broadly agree, you're thinking way too small-picture. The situation changes substantially when *everyone* needs to charge on a long route. Right now its no problem for a station to fill up 900+ cars/hour. You fill your car up and five minutes later it's parked at the end of the parking lot of the fast-food joint while the guy behind you is filling his car.

To charge 900+ cars/hour at 20mins/charge you need 300 charging stations. You are underestimating just how much energy is transferred by a single fuel station during a peak holiday period.

FWIW, I do a 1200km round-trip twice a month, and during peak vacationing time the road has 3000 cars/hour on it; at that point *all* of the fuel stations on that route have queues, even though they're only taking a few minutes each.

Re: How much will it cost.

[goose-incarnated]

The range figures for a typical commuter are mostly irrelevant, since the typical commuter won't even get close to the max range in their daily commute, and they can easily charge overnight.

0 Exactly. People seem happy enough charging their smartphone every night.

Just because they're happy enough does not mean that they are happy; Most people would *love* to be able to recharge their phone in an instant. What most people do now is tolerate the (lack of) capacity. I can guarantee you that, given the option, most people would rather not try to plan for tomorrows use by charging tonight and would instead prefer an instant-charge capability.

Re:How much will it cost.

[DrVxD]

I heard that The Devil Went Down to Georgia...

Re:How much will it cost.

[ThosLives]

You are seriously concerned that you might have an emergency, and need to drive more than 600 miles, and having to stop and re-charge for an hour would just make the emergency worse?

It's not the need to drive 600 miles - it's the need to drive any reasonable distance with minimal delay. Consider a drive that takes only 1 hour, and you just got home from your commute so your car's energy reserve is almost empty. With a gas car, that 1 hour drive takes you 1 hour and 5 minutes, plus you can have reserve to take you farther. With an electric, that 1 hour drive takes 1 hour 30 minutes.

The argument that "if it's a real emergency, use uber" posted also makes no sense - how long does it take for a taxi to arrive? Not everyone lives where there is a low-latency taxi service.

The simple fact is, current state-of-the-art electric cars are more restrictive than hydrocarbon-fueled vehicles and the current hydrocarbon refueling infrastructure. Do electric cars have benefits over liquid fuel? Yes, they do, but I do not buy arguments that they are not more restrictive.

In the future, perhaps these restrictions will be lifted, or hydro-fuels will get more restrictive. But I would argue that, as a society, having more restrictive transportation technology is hardly an "advance".

Re: How much will it cost.

[bkr1_2k]

Ah, slashdot. Go away for a couple weeks and find things like this. I am not a "cynical asshole know-it-all and no one wants to associate". I actually have very good relationships with my neighbors, we talk every couple of days, but they don't ask to borrow my car (even my truck). A chain saw or lawn mower, occasionally but never a car. As I said, I believe your mother is either incredibly nice or naive (most people don't even let casual friends borrow their vehicles, much less neighbors) but that has no bearing on me as a person.

I also didn't claim to "know what everyone in my office does on their spare time". I do however know what they do because I'm not a "cynical asshole know-it-all and no one wants to associate" but, rather, someone who talks with my coworkers about their lives and what they do. I know it's hard to believe on slashdot, where everyone is supposedly a basement dwelling troll, but the real world simply isn't like that and I live in the real world. I spend the majority of my waking life around these people and I like knowing who they are and sharing who I am with them. We talk about what we do, we share information about how we use our vehicles when someone's looking for a new one etc etc.

I was not demonizing anyone who owns trucks. I have owned several over the years, including one now. The fact that it's a "stripped down" version and actually used for work was the point I and the post you and I both responded to were both making. Super expensive vehicles (whether they're trucks or not) typically aren't work vehicles. Work vehicles typically aren't $50000+. Simple reality.

Re: How much will it cost.

[Dahamma]

Do you even know what a Ford F-450 is, though? You don't buy that as a "commuter vehicle" or even as a "country vehicle". It's not remotely similar to a utility pickup or SUV, the thing weighs almost 9000 lbs and can tow 30,000.

Osborne Effect?

[leonbev]

If I was Elon Musk, I'm not sure that I would be gloating that the Model S cars that my car company is producing will be completely obsolete just three years from now.

Re:Osborne Effect?

[riverat1]

If the range increase is more from better battery technology rather than just more batteries they can potentially put the better batteries in the Model S and increase its range as well.

Re:Osborne Effect?

[Eloking]

If I was Elon Musk, I'm not sure that I would be gloating that the Model S cars that my car company is producing will be completely obsolete just three years from now.

Well, if we take into consideration that Tesla motor upgraded the range of all Tesla Roster for free and got one of the best customer service avalaible, I can safely guess that people that buy model S now will now be left in the dark after that new 1000km model came out.

Re:Osborne Effect?

[Dahamma]

They won't be obsolete any more than a Toyota is obsolete when a new Ferrari comes out.

A Tesla with a 600 mile range WILL be a vey expensive car, since it needs a huge battery. The current P90D is well over $100K already, and it only gets 1/2 the range.

Re:Osborne Effect?

[jwhitener]

I didn't read the article, of course, but did he really say obsolete? My impression is that the new 100,000 dollar car from Tesla would be the 1000 km range in two years, so I automatically assumed the Model S and others would get a heck of a lot cheaper.

I'd be perfectly happy with the Car of Year awarded model S if it was priced like a Camry:)

Current Range is 700km

[Anonymous Coward]

That 1,000 km range isn't an impressive once you understand he's manipulating the numbers. The current range on a model S is about 700km - if you drive on level ground at 22mph.

Re:Current Range is 700km

[Astrogoth]

Yes but in full auto mode the car will ALWAYS drive efficiently. That's the savings right there.

Re:Current Range is 700km

[tsotha]

Who would want a car that refused to drive faster than 22 mph?

and he'll solve world hunger in 4

[Anonymous Coward]

I understand that people need to be visionaries (and shills), however, with respect to autonomous vehicles, all these press releases, CEOs, VPs, and shills are either lying through their teeth or mean a very specific meaning of the word "autonomous" (e.g., drive only on specific streets, be able to take over within 2-5 seconds, don't drive at dusk/dawn due to lighting messing up camera thresholds, drive only in clear weather 'cause water and snow messes up a lot of other sensors, drive for at most 3 years [because they won't maintain the software longer unless you pay them a lot of subscription money], etc.). To date there exists no autonomous vehicle technology that is tested and dependable enough to be put on an arbitrary section of a road in North America under arbitrary driving conditions and that would meet Automotive Safety Integrity Level (ASIL) A as required. Period.

Yet, let the public dream of their autonomous vehicles that zip around. It gives you eyeballs and people drooling over it. The fact that they talk about autonomous "cars" and not autonomous freight trucks (for which the safety is much simpler) already shows you that they are just shilling for their company and eyeballs.

To his defense, he said "they *should* have fully autonomy". Yes, they *should* have that already today, but they don't.

Re:and he'll solve world hunger in 4

[xombo]

I've been saying for a number of years that semi trucks would be the first thing to convert over to autonomous driving. We'll see it there long before we see it widespread in passenger vehicles. Think of it simply: These are trucks that can (and most already do) drive at night when there are few people on the road, have very well-defined and easily known start and end points (vs. listening to a passenger describe a location or navigate an un-mapped driveway), would benefit in cost savings both from constant autonomous use AND the fact that you won't have to pay someone to do it (whereas passenger car drivers are working for free). Documenting loading bays for your business is a project that works at scale (and it's to determine the authoritative source of such information), whereas mapping everyone's driveway and personal parking spot does not (as we've seen with the crowd-sourced data contributed to Google Maps).

Autonomous cars are an interesting research project; but, until you see Paccar introduce autonomous trucks and start clocking some miles testing these things at night and at significant scale, it will remain a passenger vehicle pipe-dream.

Re:and he'll solve world hunger in 4

[fustakrakich]

The closest thing we have to autonomous are airliners. Taking the pilot out of the equation has made a big difference. It shows in the numbers. Rail seems to be the next obvious choice, especially if they ever put good brakes on them, the kind that grab the rail, not the wheel.

These guys? Just working the financial markets... And the batteries are a pain in the ass. It's damn near impossible to air freight them anywhere, for good reason.

Re:and he'll solve world hunger in 4

[riverat1]

You're going to have to tie the rails and ties down a lot better than they do now to put that kind of braking force on rails.

Re:and he'll solve world hunger in 4

[fustakrakich]

Heh, that's not the only thing. The tracks need to be elevated to avoid animals and dangerous crossings. Expensive as hell, but if you want to do it right...

Re:and he'll solve world hunger in 4

[DerekLyons]

Think of it simply: These are trucks that can (and most already do) drive at night when there are few people on the road

Huh? Trucks drive 24/7/practically 365.
 

have very well-defined and easily known start and end points (vs. listening to a passenger describe a location or navigate an un-mapped driveway)

Huh? How is a given freight dock any less well defined or known than any given house or workplace?
 

Documenting loading bays for your business is a project that works at scale (and it's to determine the authoritative source of such information), whereas mapping everyone's driveway and personal parking spot does not (as we've seen with the crowd-sourced data contributed to Google Maps).

Huh? Your average autonomous car doesn't need massive amounts of crowd sourced data - a couple of weeks and the average driver can easily teach it most of their usual destinations. And it scales like nothing you've ever seen - once Joe Sixpack teaches the car the route from I-5 to his office building, everyone else who uses I-5 and goes to that office building can use the same data. And ditto on the opposite end - once Joe Sixpack has taught his car the route from I-5 to his subdivision in Seatac, everyone else who lives there can use all but the last few hundred to thousand yards or so of data.

This from the guy who said...

[saccade.com]

This from the guy who said the Model X would be rolling off the line in 2013. He probably will deliver, just not that soon.

Dear Mr Musk...

[Lumpy]

Give us a 300km electric car with 4 seats that has a base model retail of $19,995 and you will freaking change the world overnight.

80% of the american population does not have the income to afford a car that costs more than that. 70% cant afford a car that costs more than $14,995. and with rent at criminal levels along with wages being doubly criminally low..... you need to offer a very low cost economy version for the poor people in the bottom 80%.

Make it charge from 120V 15A outlet only and these same poor people will be able to afford to charge it.

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[kamapuaa]

The median price of a car in the US is $32K. Electric cars are cheaper to fill up and maintain, and so if there's rational economics going on, the median price could effectively go up quite a bit and still cost the same.

There already are $20K 4 seat electric cars (after subsidies) that go 150km, and charge up overnight on a 120V connection, and they're a niche item. 300km would be a definite improvement, but I'm not sure it would change the world overnight.

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[xombo]

Where is this fabled 4 seat $20k electric car with 150km range that charges on a home outlet?? Me and a few million other people are dying to know.

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[Michael Woodhams]

Mr Musk not only knows this, but changing this world in this way is Mr Musk's declared reason for founding Tesla Motors in the first place. The plan is to produce the Model 3 in a few years, which will have your 300km range, but current price is expected to be US$35k (neglecting government incentives for electric vehicles.)

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[kamapuaa]

Go on to truecar.com, look up car prices! You can print out a sheet, take it to the dealer, and get it for that price.
Keep in mind that you should take the car price and subtract $7500 for the Federal subsidy (which is given at time of purchase.) Additionally, different states have different subsidy levels - California will subsidize it $2500, it takes na few weeks though).

So after $10,000, truecar.com currently lists:

A Nissan Leaf for $15,000 (that is a seriously fucking good deal)
A Fiat 500e $19,000
An e-Golf for $21,000 (A little over, but it's Motor-trends car of the year.)

They're all 4 seat and will get about 150km.

I have an e-golf, I drive more than an hour a day, and I just charge is on a 120v overnight.

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[viperidaenz]

You could charge a 300km electric car from a 120V 15A outlet
But to fill the 85kWh battery, it would take 48 hours.

Most of the rest of the world is a little more sane, with standard household outlets being 240V/10A, but that would still take 36 hours.

That's assuming the charger and charging process are near 100% efficient

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[jandjmh]

The Mitsubishi iMiev comes close to that, but only because of $10K in combined California state and US federal tax credits. About $24K before the credits, net cost after is $14K
Range is closer to 130 km than 150 km
You will need a $500 charger - it doesn't just plug into a regular outlet
A Tesla can plug into a regular 120V 15A US outlet, but it's like filling a swimming pool through a drinking straw. It only adds 3 miles of range for each hour of charging.

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[Irate Engineer]

There already are $20K 4 seat electric cars (after subsidies) that go 150km, and charge up overnight on a 120V connection, and they're a niche item. 300km would be a definite improvement, but I'm not sure it would change the world overnight.

150km represents something like a 90 minute round-trip commute at highway speeds. 20% of Americans have commutes of this distance or greater, and if they don't have a charging capability at work, these vehicles are non-starters. I'm one of these people - my commute is on the ragged edge of performance range of electrics right now and I can't risk it. I'd buy a $20k electric with a 300km range in a heartbeat.

Electric cars are a very tight niche now. If you have a short commute, it hardly matters whether you drive gas or electric because the energy costs are cheap either way, and gas vehicles are still cheaper to buy. If you have a long commute, you're going gas, because electric can't get you the range. The only place electric cars work is in the extreme ragged edge of battery range, in places where charging at both ends of the commute is possible, and where gas prices might come close to offsetting the cost differential in the vehicle purchase.

Get the range into the regime where range anxiety is a non-issue for 99% of car owners at this price point and electrics will take off. Right now 20% of car buyers know they need more range, and probably another 20-30% aren't sure that the real range (not the quoted range) will meet their needs. 300km range would do this.

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[Doppler00]

Most U.S. homes with garages have 240V service. It's just a matter of adding a new circuit breaker. 50 or 30 amps at 240V is probably enough for overnight charging. So yeah, there is an initial investment there of probably around $1000 for the EVSE and new circuit breaker.

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[Doppler00]

This is why workplace charging is so important, but often overlooked in regards to EV tech. The technical challenges of adding charge stations to your destination is a solved problem. Doubling the range of lithium ion batteries is still in the laboratory at this point. Also, with PHEV the more opportunities you have to charge, the less gas you have to burn. So instead of 80% of your trips being in EV mode, you might hit 90% just by having destination charging.

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[germansausage]

"80% of the american population does not have the income to afford a car that costs more than (19,995)."
 
So who is driving all the giant hemi powered 4x4 3/4 ton $75k pick-up trucks that fill the roads around here?

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[michelcolman]

They do sell high power wall chargers that charge a Model S in less than 8 hours (if your home's electric system can handle the amps, otherwise you might have to upgrade it or accept a longer charging time)

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[dargaud]

On a side note, as a european, I can add that electric bikes have been making a silent killing in the last one or two years, mostly for city use, but also for farther commuting (some cities have bike path that never cross a road) and even mountain bike use (for older people). The bike shops that used to sell road bikes and mountain bikes now mostly sell those same bikes, but electric. And it's slowly changing the cities (more bike paths, you can take trains/buses with bikes, etc).

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[Irate Engineer]

This. I think expecting workplace charging is like expecting your workplace to maintain a gas station for you. It would be convenient, but the costs don't make sense, and no one wants to pay it. If you work for a government and they decide to do it for the betterment of society, lucky you, but the rest of the world is out of luck. EVs need to have the range to get to work and back, period.

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[PPalmgren]

I'm a daily commuter, and while an EV sounds like a great idea...I don't have the ability to get a charging port. I live in a condo, and many people live in apartments. Charging availability is a real concern.

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[shilly]

Why on *earth* would the cost be 30k+?? A home charging unit in the UK is about $1k before subsidy (cost to me = about $300). Why would a workplace unit cost 30 times as much?

Your figures appear to be orders of magnitude too high. See, for example:
http://www.calstart.org/Librar...
Page 11

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[Lumpy]

And they installed it for free? Around here it requires an electrician and they charge $150 an hour and it takes them 6 hours to install a EV charging station.

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[Lumpy]

Which tells renters of apartments to stuff it in their rears.
for every homeowner there is 10 renters. Are you supporting a law change that forces landlords at gunoint to install charging stations (or allow tenants to install a charging station and give them a credit if they leave it behind) for renters if they want one?

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[shilly]

In the UK, yes, they install it for free.

For example:
https://www.chargemasterplc.co...

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[eepok]

Yes and no.

-- California has a $2,500 direct rebate (it's a check sent to you by the State).

-- The Federal Government has a $5,000 non-refundable tax rebate. That means you have to claim it on your taxes as a negative liability only to reduce existing tax liability. That means if you submit a $5,000 rebate and you're already getting a $250 refund, you get NOTHING from your $5,000 rebate. If you want your full $5,000 value, you have to change your tax witholdings for the year, save what you think you'll have to pay, apply the $5,000 tax rebate, pay what's left, and then look in your "tax savings account" and see what's left. That's your reward. That's not something that low-income people do.

-- To charge an electric vehicle at home, you need a garage or one of those incredibly rare apartments communities that offers EV charging. For comparison, I live in what most would consider a premium apartment community in one of the safest cities in America and there's not a single public EV charger anywhere in this apartment community or the owner's apartment system.

-- You have to travel a maximum distance per day given charge time.

EV are still additional "putt around" vehicles for the upper-middle and upper class. Almost no households live with ONLY an EV.

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[eepok]

Here's why you're wrong about the tax credit:

https://turbotax.intuit.com/ta...

"As a tax credit, the amount of your qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle tax credit reduces your tax bill on a dollar-for-dollar basis. In order to claim the credit, you have to have a tax liability you report on your return. It will not increase your refund beyond what is owed. Depending on your liability and other tax credits you take, you may not see the full tax savings of the tentative credit you calculate on Form 8936. This is because the credit is a nonrefundable credit. Nonrefundable tax credits cannot reduce your tax bill below zero and also reduce your tax bill for a number of other credits taken before reducing the remaining tax bill for your plug-in electric motor vehicle credit."

Here's why you're wrong about EV chargers in California Apartments:

AB 2565 makes it a requirement for a an apartment landlard to allow the installation of an EVSE (charger). While the charger can be had for less than $1,000 with rebates, installation still costs. If there's insufficient wiring to a garage. That costs, too. If there is no garage, then you need to buy a weatherized EVSE and have it installed outside. The renter is responsible for all costs, reporting, planning, and including removal when the apartment lease is up. This is cost prohibitive.

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[Lumpy]

That is very cool.

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[shilly]

Yes, it actually addresses real consumer concerns about open-ended costs and hassles.

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[danbob999]

Where do you get these numbers from? The average paid is $28k for a Leaf, and under $26k is considered exceptionally good.

Re:Dear Mr Musk...

[jwhitener]

subtract $7500 for the Federal subsidy (which is given at time of purchase.)

So does that mean your loan payments are based on the sales price - 7500, or based on the price before the 7500 is taken off? That makes a big difference in the monthly, and I've always been curious which way it goes.

Ha. Let me explain why you're on this page...

[Gordo_1]

It's because the media is a piece of fucking garbage and take practically every goddamn thing that's said by anyone out of context. Oh, and the folks who run Slashdot do effectively zero checking on anything they post. /rant

Now the explanation: Prior to the answer Musk gave indicating that Teslas would do 1000km on a charge, he was talking about a recently set record where a dude (Casey Spencer) did 500 miles (~800km) in a Tesla Model S, driving at something like 24mph for like 24 hours. In that context, Musk said that similarly, a 1000km could be achieved in a Tesla by 2017, given battery density improvements of 5-10% annually. All that would be necessary would be a 20% improvement on the record by 2017. I might add that the dude who did this was in a 85kWh car going downhill for a decent portion of the drive and took into account weather effects, temps and whatnot to achieve his 500 miles. I wouldn't be surprised if the latest 90kWh Model S as is could do another 100 miles if tightly controlled in the right conditions (high altitude, ideal temp/wind), so really a 5% improvement in both 2016 and 2017 is all that's really being predicted here.

Re:Ha. Let me explain why you're on this page...

[hyades1]

Figures...I used my last mod point before I came to this page. Thanks for that very informative comment.

Re:Ha. Let me explain why you're on this page...

[michelcolman]

Casey Spencer actually did 550 miles and ended at the starting point (if the comments below the article on teslarati.com are correct, because I couldn't find exact details on the route myself), so the initial downhill segment doesn't matter. But he did deactivate or turn down as much as possible everything that used even the smallest amount of power (climate control, radio, dimmed screens), overinflated the tires, and chose a favorable weather pattern with a strong tailwind in the last leg. And of course he only did 24 mph.

Anyway, I came here to write exactly what you wrote: Elon said that someone already did 800 km, so they should be able to break 1000 km in 2017 or so. To me it certainly sounded like he was talking about a similar hypermiling record, not real world performance. And since the record was done with an 85D while 90D is already available, they ought to already be able to achieve 937 km today. So it looks like they won't improve much in the coming years, 5 to 10% per year like he said.

Re:Autonomy is already in 2015 Vehicles

[crow]

Autopilot doesn't use the network. It uses radar and a camera to track the paint on the road. If the paint is faded, the sun reflects off it wrong, it gets confused with old paint, or whatnot, then it tells you to take control. I would expect to only need to take the wheel for 1% of the driving, but you would need to be ready to do so for 100% of the driving to be safe.

I'm sure there will be people who set out on a lonely highway and go to sleep, only to wake up when the car comes to an emergency stop on the side of the road because it decided it needed a human driver.

1000km range is easy

[GuB-42]

Just attach a trailer full of batteries to a model S and you get your 1000km.

No Osborne Effect!

[crow]

The range increase he has predicted is 5-10% per year. The 1000km number is for hypermilers who figure out the optimal speed and ideal conditions, then drive all day at 22mph or whatever for the bragging rights.

The real maximum range right now is around 300 miles, and in 3 years, it could easily be 350 miles. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bump when the Gigafactory comes online, as they may be able to build more tightly-packed custom batteries to increase density or otherwise incorporate new technology.

Anyone following Tesla knows full well that they are making engineering improvements every week, so every car is somewhat obsolete by the time you get it. But the cars are also so far ahead of anything else out there that there's no comparison.

Re:No Osborne Effect!

[gl4ss]

no, he's pretty much claiming that he'll have new battery tech that will turn 300 into 600+ DURING NEXT YEAR.

pretty sure he's just talking out of his ass on that one though - or he is going to introduce a model that has the backseat and luggage areas filled with the batteries.

Re:No Osborne Effect!

[David_Hart]

no, he's pretty much claiming that he'll have new battery tech that will turn 300 into 600+ DURING NEXT YEAR.

pretty sure he's just talking out of his ass on that one though - or he is going to introduce a model that has the backseat and luggage areas filled with the batteries.

Yeah, battery technology, while improving, has been improving incrementally over the last 10 years. It may seem like we have made big jumps because our toys now last longer (i.e. tablets) but what has happened is that the electronics have continued to get smaller leaving more room for the battery, which has gotten bigger. Also, electronics have become more efficient. Perhaps this is where Musk feels that they can make huge improvements, in actually making the cars and engines more efficient.

Re:No Osborne Effect!

[crow]

Nonsense. Did you actually listen to the interview? It's in the context of hypermilers--setting the record for the longest possible drive on one charge--not real or rated range under normal conditions.

http://insideevs.com/tesla-mod...

The current record is 550 miles. That's 885km. And that as on a 85D, not the new 90D, which would put the expected result from the same test at 937km. Getting to 1000 in two years means going from 90 to 96 KWH in the battery, all else being equal. Considering that he's already stated that he expects a 5% improvement in the batteries every year, we would expect the 95D to be released next year, and the 100D the next, so that's right on schedule.

OK so long as you can turn it off

[kheldan]

I'm perfectly OK with a car being able to take over if I want it to -- so long as I can flip a switch and turn that off, and drive myself as I'm accustomed to. Besides which for a long time to come it'll just be an expensive option on luxury cars, not standard equipment on sub-compact economy cars.

In the meantime I propose there be reforms to driver education, driver training, and driver license testing procedures. We can start with doing away with this silly notion that attempting to enter a highway at 45mph when the traffic is going 70mph is 'OK, they'll slow down for you' just so you can save a teaspoon of fuel, we need to teach drivers to match velocities with the traffic. We also need to teach drivers to 'see' motorcycles and bicycles 100% of the time.

Show of hands...

[r-diddly]

...Who's sick of this guy's brainfarts being endlessly repeated & tweeted & written about like they were.... not brainfarts?

Re:Show of hands...

[sribe]

Who's sick of this guy's brainfarts being endlessly repeated & tweeted & written about like they were.... not brainfarts?

You mean "this guy" who has a long-established history of talking about futuristic things, then developing them, then shipping them???

Re:Show of hands...

[r-diddly]

That's the guy yeah. The one who thinks building whatever he wants in the resource-constrained physical world is the same as making PayPal, and that physics and economics are bound to bend to his will, and that the only reason it hasn't happened yet is because of a lack of imagination by everyone on earth... until he came along that is!

Re: Disgusting corporate welfare

[rossdee]

Uphill in the snow? About 0.01 (sitting there with the wheels spinning...)

Re:Autonomy is already in 2015 Vehicles

[tsotha]

That would be me. What's the point of buying a self driving car if I have to hover over the steering wheel in case it gets confused? If I can't read or sleep or surf the web I may as well drive.

Re: Disgusting corporate welfare

[ShanghaiBill]

I would like to see what the range is in non ideal conditions. With the radio on/ phone charging/ GPS running + heating/cooling the car

The radio, phone, and GPS use a negligible amount of electricity.

The heater and AC use far more power, but still don't affect the range as much as you might think, because they do very little heating/cooling. My wife has a Tesla, and you can barely tell that the AC is even turned on. This isn't a big deal for us, because we live in San Jose, where the weather is perfect 90% of the time.

Re: Disgusting corporate welfare

[jandjmh]

My wife also has a Tesla S85. On the freeway at 65 mph the range is about as advertised, 265+ miles. AC on a very hot day reduces that about 5%.
Around town, stop and go 0-40 mph actually has better range, approaching 350 miles.

Others already do it

[gurps_npc]

It is now technically possible, we just have to work out the rules and regulations - insurance, financial and legal liability, regulatory approval.

I think that ten years from now, not a single wealthy person under 21 or over 70 will be driving a car. In 20 years, replace "not a single wealthy" with "only very wealthy American", as we flee the dangerous practice of allowing humans to drive on public roads.

Re:Others already do it

[phantomfive]

It is now technically possible,

What are you talking about? Haven't you been paying attention to all the limitations in Google's self-driving car technology?
They can't even get navigation to work properly. It works most of the time, but sometimes tells you to go strange places.

Re:Others already do it

[gurps_npc]

That kind of flaw is easily solved by passenger oversight.

Re:Others already do it

[phantomfive]

Every flaw is easily solved by passenger oversight, but that's no better than what we have now.

Beagle anonymous scars

[fyngyrz]

I need more than 300 miles, I live in a very rural, isolated area. Nearest city worthy of the name is 280 miles away (and it's not the one I'd pick as my first choice to visit, either. The air is seriously polluted there. Outright stank.) 600 miles -- more or less what he's talking about -- would be awesome. I'd buy one of those in a heartbeat if it was under $60k.

Re:Beagle anonymous scars

[Noah Haders]

i foresee a problem, even if you had a car that could do 2000 miles, there's only so much energy you can charge overnight. this is limited by your house wiring and your transformer to the grid.

Re:Beagle anonymous scars

[b0bby]

Sounds like you need a Chevy Volt, unless you really don't do any local driving. First 40 miles electric, gas after that as long as you want. And under $60k.

Re:Beagle anonymous scars

[tehcyder]

I need more than 300 miles, I live in a very rural, isolated area. Nearest city worthy of the name is 280 miles away (and it's not the one I'd pick as my first choice to visit, either. The air is seriously polluted there. Outright stank.) 600 miles -- more or less what he's talking about -- would be awesome. I'd buy one of those in a heartbeat if it was under $60k.

There will be outliers who "need" 600 or 1000 miles even though they can't get that with their current vehicles.

Most cars here in the UK have a range of about 400 miles. You really shouldn't be driving more than that without stopping for a break anyway.

Obviously, the real issues are (1) that of providing enough charging stations, and (2) of trying to get it so that you can recharge in less than ten minutes, to make it as convenient as a conventional car.

The second one of these is not going to change in a couple of years.

Re:Beagle anonymous scars

[Whiternoise]

At that point you should be considering battery swaps. Wasn't one of Tesla's early demos that their automated battery exchanger could replace batteries faster than a human could pump gas?

Obviously a problem if you drain the battery to get to the middle of nowhere (need those charging stations), but that's probably "the future".

Re:Beagle anonymous scars

[chuckugly]

That would be OK for me, I make long drives, but only infrequently. My car (for instance) has been in the garage for 12 days in a row until yesterday, when I drove it 2 miles. In a few weeks I will drive 800 miles in a day, and then 5-6 days later I will return. A 1000 mile battery would work fantastically for me excepting a few very infrequent long road trips.

Re:Autonomy is already in 2015 Vehicles

[Ol Olsoc]

That would be me. What's the point of buying a self driving car if I have to hover over the steering wheel in case it gets confused? If I can't read or sleep or surf the web I may as well drive.

This! If I have to just sit there, ready to take the wheel if there is an emergency - what the hell is the point? That would be so boring they would probably have to implement one of those buttons you have to press every 20 seconds, or the car will shut down, like they do on that one train line in Australia.

I really don't have a problem with things like assistance to stay in a lane, or radar to stop people tailgating, but if I have to hand over control and just sit there bored , there's not much point, just a punishment.

News from 2020

[Tokolosh]

A research team from Kentucky has released their findings from a government-funded study.They have found that the software in Tesla Z vehicles effectively cheats on tests and that performance figures quoted are grossly exaggerated.

Re:Disgusting corporate welfare

[MightyYar]

I know money is fungible and all, but not paying taxes because society is trying to achieve some policy goal is not the same as taking money that you did not earn at all. All of Tesla's competitors are subject to the exact same tax incentives.

LOL

[iONiUM]

I'd love these California dwelling CEOs to come up to Canada (or even, *gasp* Buffalo) in the middle of February and see how their "self-driving" cars do. Winter is a 6 month reality here and I'm not very interested in a "self-driving" car that works or less than half the year.

Re:LOL

[sribe]

I'd love these California dwelling CEOs to come up to Canada (or even, *gasp* Buffalo) in the middle of February and see how their "self-driving" cars do. Winter is a 6 month reality here and I'm not very interested in a "self-driving" car that works or less than half the year.

6 months?? You wimp! Where I live, summer started last week, and will be over by next week!

Re:LOL

[DarthVain]

Not to mention how well those batteries perform when it is between -10 and -30 degrees... Someone mentioned ebikes as well for urban commuters... I know some that do, but in the winter you'll be rolling the Darwin dice every day...

Re: Autonomy is already in 2015 Vehicles

[0123456]

Unless I can sit in the back seat and drink a beer, with zero liability if the thing crashes: then I won't trust autonomous functions at all.

To be fair, I'd be happy with just being able to sit back and let the car steer itself every time I drive 500 miles to visit my girlfriend's parents. Not a lot of traffic, but I have to stay awake so I can steer round a truck every few miles and a bend every hundred miles.

Of course a Tesla would take twice as long to get there, for only three times the price of our Civic. Pretty good deal, or something.

Re: Disgusting corporate welfare

[Doppler00]

I've found with our C-Max Energi the AC will hit about 2.5KW of power usage for maybe the first 10 minutes of running, so it's usually good to pre-condition the car before unplugging it. After it's been running for awhile it tends to maintain a draw of maybe about 500 watts from what I can tell from the dash gauge. This is in 90 degree weather.

The heater electrical usage is ridiculous though. It doesn't use a heat pump so it relies on resistance heating. At that point, I'm probably better off just enabling the engine.

Typical electric car consumes 35 kWh per 100km

[Kartu]

Typical electric car consumes 35 kWh per 100km. (62 miles)
Say it can drive 400km (250 miles). That's 140 kWh of energy.

A typical home socket (well, in EU, 220-240V, will be less in USA) has 16A limit, so that's around 3.6 kW, but oh well. Let's say we equip our houses with special supercharger.

Now, to pump 140 kWh in 15 mins, one needs electircity source of 560 kW.
Typical "big" power plants with several blocks are normally in 1-1.5GW area.
With about 2500 such vehicles you'd consume 100% of power generated by such power plant.

Yikes.

Re:Typical electric car consumes 35 kWh per 100km

[bentcd]

Typical electric car consumes 35 kWh per 100km. (62 miles)

The Tesla Model S easily gets 400km out of 85kWh which puts it at ~20kWh per 100km.

Say it can drive 400km (250 miles). That's 140 kWh of energy.

85kWh for the Model S

Now, to pump 140 kWh in 15 mins, one needs electircity source of 560 kW.
Typical "big" power plants with several blocks are normally in 1-1.5GW area.
With about 2500 such vehicles you'd consume 100% of power generated by such power plant.

Only if all cars always simultaneously drive 400km in 15 minutes and also charge at full capacity during those 15 minutes, and they do this continuously 24/7. This is a practical impossibility for a number of reasons.

Even if you suppose that all cars drive 400km per day (which isn't the case) and so need a full charge every day, a smart grid would distribute those 2500 cars out such that 26 charge at a time (26 x 4 x 24 = ~2500 cars) and you only need a 9MW energy supply for the 2500 cars with the Model S 85kWh battery. (In practice cars drive a lot less than this and so when all is said and done you don't need a whole lot of electricity at all to keep them going.)

Re:Typical electric car consumes 35 kWh per 100km

[greatpatton]

So I'm must be an alien, yesterday I drove more than 130km in a BMW i3 with a remaining autonomy of at least 30km and all this with a 22kWh battery.

Re: Disgusting corporate welfare

[short]

Only speed primarily matters. IIRC Musk said that driving 250km/h (allowed on German autobahns) Tesla will make only 80km for a charge.

They have something called "airplanes" now

[thrill12]

It is amazing, because back in the early 20th century everybody thought that was a load of bull. Similar like you do today - people were ridiculing the concept of flying machines then. [rant]It takes a visionary to start from the other direction: possibility first, then obstacle. You start by looking at the obstacle - what would you possibly want to do at a site like slashdot where people generally want to read about possibilities ?[/rant]

Re: Disgusting corporate welfare

[michelcolman]

Yes, but power is energy per second, and since you're doing more distance per second at higher speed, energy usage per km only increases with the square of the velocity.

All the points except the one that matters

[kuzb]

So when exactly is Musk going to start making cars for people other than the rich? It's great he's improving batteries and such, but the only life he's actually enriched with technology so far is his own.

Re:All the points except the one that matters

[DirkDaring]

Model 3 is is in the works, give it a little time. You can read (or watch) about why they had to do expensive cars first.

Re: Disgusting corporate welfare

[michelcolman]

Teslas actually do very well in the snow, better than most other cars. Even the RWD version is excellent already, but definitely the AWD has incredible traction.

The EV1K challenge

[phlawed]

Can it do 100kph for 10 hours straight? In -10 degC?

And to stay with the 10e3 theme:
Will it charge in 1000 seconds?
Will it hold sufficient charge for driving 1000 km at 100kph, starting 1000 hours after charging?
Will battery performance hold up after 1000 charge cycles?
Can it be sold, built and delivered to 1000 individual customers?

#ev1k

Of course self drive cars won't be legal

[DrXym]

For obvious reasons - they'll act unpredictably, cause delays / accidents, ignore diversions / roadworks / cops, fail in adverse conditions, and quite possibly kill people due to hardware / software faults.

Re:Of course self drive cars won't be legal

[neminem]

But of course, people driving themselves *never* act unpredictably, cause delays/accidents, ignore diversions/roadworks/cops, fail in adverse conditions, or kill people due to driving like idiots/jerks/spacing out/looking at their phones.

Why would you expect 100% perfection from self-driving cars, when humans are so monumentally far from it? Self-driving cars could do all the things you mentioned, and still be waaaaaaaaay safer than we are right now. (I'm not saying they're ready right this instant - that's why they're still completely in the test testing phase. I think 3 years to road-ready is a bit optimistic, but I think 10 years to road-ready would be a completely safe bet.)

Re:Of course self drive cars won't be legal

[DrXym]

It's not about perfection. It's about being able to cope with situations that a human would cope without a second's thought. And self drive cars can't.

Re: Disgusting corporate welfare

[Alsn]

To be fair, gasoline cars get terrible mileages at those speeds as well, although maybe not as terrible. On the other hand, I imagine electrics will have a massive advantage in city driving thanks to not needing gears and the perk of regenerative braking.

Units

[fnj]

1000 km? Wouldn't 1 Mm be a more canonical representation?

We could do it now.

[gzuckier]

Simply haul a trailer with another ton or two of charged batteries.