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CIA 'Siren Servers' Can Predict Social Uprisings Several Days Before They Happen (sociable.co)
Through a combination of machine learning and deep learning, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is using powerful supercomputers, dubbed "Siren Servers" by computer philosophy writer Jaron Lanier, to predict social unrest days before it happens. The Sociable reports: CIA Deputy Director for Digital Innovation Andrew Hallman announced that the agency has beefed-up its "anticipatory intelligence" through the use of deep learning and machine learning servers that can process an incredible amount of data. "We have, in some instances, been able to improve our forecast to the point of being able to anticipate the development of social unrest and societal instability some I think as near as three to five days out," said Hallman on Tuesday at the Federal Tech event, Fedstival. The CIA deputy director said that it was "much harder to convey confidence for the policymaker who may make an important decision from advanced analytics with deep learning algorithms." Now that the CIA claims to be able to predict social unrest days in advance, there are some interesting theoretical possibilities that can come of this. One is that the CIA's siren servers will become so efficient that they will predict all social uprising and will be able to prevent it. If they are successful in doing that, there would be no need for the CIA as their technology could predict and prevent any societal upheavals, and the agency would be obsolete. Another potential outcome would be that the CIA could use the data and not tell anyone, just like the finance sector did, and then make calculated decisions on whether or not to intervene in any socially distressing situation.
They can't predict shit. Not social unrest, not the weather, and not Pokemon Go.
It's easy to predict things you are the cause of.
Assumes that you can -- in fact -- rapidly prevent societal upheavals with anything but force, which still leaves the root cause unresolved.
"I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
Turkey Coup?
Colombia after El Presidente Gets a Nobel "Peace" Prize and no peace!
Ha ha
Sounds like our government is starting to fear the citizens and wants to know as early as possible when they may have to deal with us finally having enough of their crap. Good for us.
They hate us so they want us to die at the hands of their thugs in blue.
If they are successful in doing that, there would be no need for the CIA as their technology could predict and prevent any societal upheavals...
The authors are utterly naive if they think that the CIA's primary role is intelligence gathering, or that they even care overly much about quelling "societal upheavals". The spooks are at least as much about manipulating situations and people, and about spreading disinformation, (not to mention ensuring the Agency's continued existence), as they are about preventing any grief except their own. "Anticipatory Intelligence" is just a tool that allows them to carry on a faster, more efficient, more effective, more lucrative version of 'business as usual'.
I'd be very interested to hear Edward Snowden weigh in on this.
'The Economy' is a giant Ponzi scheme whose most pitiable suckers are the youngest among us and the yet-unborn.
What if the 'social upheaval' is justified? What if it is technically allowed by the 1st amendment? What if they tell the president that riots are due to start in xyz town and move in the National Guard, even though those riots are due to true injustice that needs to be addressed?
Can the government stop speech before it happens? What does that leave for the already shattered remnants of democracy?
Silence is a state of mime.
Asimoz first wrote about in Foundation close to 50 years ago. Perhaps some should read it. it's still applicable.
First they take 1984 and treat it like a user manual and now they are attempting to go full on minority report pre-crime? It's getting harder and harder to just laugh off that dystopian future.
honest question: how does this help general society? the way i see it, if people are so pissed off all the time that you can't tell if you are about to fubar things then you have no business being in any position of authority.
Anons need not reply. Questions end with a question mark.
With the right dictionary list and voice to text hardware that would have been easy with a more limited set of leadership phone numbers in any nation.
Tap all the political leaders, mil, gov, industrial leaders, media, banking elite, celebrities and one productive hop beyond them.
As reports of industrial action, protests, riots, cost of living spread fast amount the left or right political base so a few days warning in most nations would have been possible given actual local events.
Most nations do have vast informant networks and people who have been to jail or made an offer been released as informants. All that domestic information flows to the top and then spreads as gossip among the ruling elite or even as basic insider trading.
The CIA would not have allowed the NSA/GCHQ to be the only gatekeeper over any decade able to get raw data of value out of any nation.
With a smaller, smarter take and limited hops of collected phone numbers per nation, the NSA collect it all, translation, per nation slang and jargon issue would be avoided.
The CIA take would be accurate, focused, on time and realistic for US political consideration.
The other issue with a social uprising is just to create one. US backed Colour revolution at the right time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... can seem like local issues but have been induced and well funded.
Consider Project SHAMROCK https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... on a global scale for decades over all emerging communications networks but only for very interesting people.
"Speech Recognition is NSA’s Best-Kept Open Secret" (May 11 2015)
"..speech recognition technology has been heavily — and openly — funded by the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA) since the early 1970s." https://theintercept.com/2015/...
COINS, Community On-line Intelligence System was mid 1960.
Domestic spying is now "Benign Information Gathering"
And so does Cainer.com, the astrology site. It tells me a week ahead what will happen, and sure enough it happens!
Try it.
Now I know that some people claim it's vague Barnum statements, that I'm simply attaching whatever link my mind can make to the events, to link them up, creating false confirmation bias. But I know, it works! I know that the position of Saturn on any particular day affects my future week. How could it not!
Don't believe the naysayers!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPCsCiOqmXA
This computer program totally predicts social unrest BEFORE it happens. At the moment its making an incredible prediction, that Trump will do say something stupid that will piss off a lot of people causing social unrest. Won't that be AMAZING if it happens?
What type of Social Unrest is the CIA referring too?
I can predict that if the 2nd Amendment was destroyed, there would be an uprise maybe in 1 to 2 days.
What would the NRA do? They would have commercials on TV asking for more monies.
It's the politicians creating laws not the NRA.
SLAP THAT ASS!!!!
The only use for women is a cum dumpster!!! Trump and Occulus in 2016!!!
I have an earthquake detector that works 100% of the time. Unfortunately, it's terrible at detecting days when there won't be an earthquake. Publish the quantitative data or STFU.
Sounds like somebody went data dredging and hasn't bothered to validate its predictive utility. My bet is the false alarm rate makes it equally useless to the DHS color-coded threat alert system.
This is the year of the trifecta:
1) Linux on the desktop
2) Cubs win the World Series
3) President Trump!
Wouldn't it be totally god-like if they could predict uprisings but chose to do nothing to prevent them.
I'd much sooner believe they have the tools to cause social unrest than to predict it.
I smell vendor hype.
Table-ized A.I.
If a prediction prevents an event, the model of prediction fails and can no longer predict if it is self-learning.
Strategy for working in neural networks (deep learning): 1) tell the customer what they want to hear 2) go do what you want to do.
Which is very likely if Hillary wins the election fraudulently. Just saying.
I'm smoking from my bong and I'm so high right now. Zeus praise Athena.
NOV 8 will be flagged and marshal law may need to used to shut down the vote if they feel that Hillery will lose.
After analysis of the AI system it was found that the impressive predictive results were to a large extent explained by the input parameter: Police officer shoots unarmed man and the police tries to cover it up with lies.
Bert
...RNM initiates the unrest and gets people to trigger the siren servers, so the broader cia have a parallel record that keeps everyone clean...
Crafty.
So rather than fix the causes of societal instability (most likely government failures), let's get some software up and running to help us more efficiently smack folks down when they rise against us.
Most "social uprisings" result from unforeseeable impulsive events (like a shooting). How are you going to predict those?
Maybe, just maybe, you could give a weather report like "chance of uprising is X%," but I would want to see some verification of these probabilities (are they better, for example, that just saying that riots are more probable in hot, humid weather than immediately after a snowstorm?).
Internet trolling will move to the next level with this shit working, imagine a social troll army firing up false positives and making agencies spend resources for nothing.
The working class have never been secretive about their feelings towards other classes. As an Austrian princess discovered, the problem in France wasn't a shortage of baked goods. Proclaiming "let them eat cake" demonstrated only that the rich didn't care about their suffering.
Rich people like to think poor people create their own problems and to a point, it is true. But when the poor decide they'll have better lives without rich people oppressing them, it's not a sudden realization or a quick mobilization. There's always been plenty of opportunity for the rich to defuse class warfare and social alienation. A political revolt proves the rich didn't work hard enough protecting the society that provided and protected their riches.
What exactly will the government prevent? The suffering and social alienation has already occurred. It's difficult to stop mobs although the police can arrive in force before the mob swells in size and commitment. This creates an endless spiral of who has more justification and more guns, which to date, hasn't caused widespread bloodshed. We've seen that sort of policing before, in Ireland. It still didn't stop the terrorists and a lot of police were assassinated in the meantime.
Put that money into FIXING the CAUSE of the uprise !
pigs, and molotov
nuclear weapons, dead cops
start the list now
Why would the CIA's work consist only of being able to prevent revolutions? Are we living in the central and southern America, by any change?
Next time remember to log in, Donald. Then you'll get modded up for this for sure.
Il n'y a pas de Planet B.
3-5 days for a supercomputer to figure that out? No shit Batman.
Google trends and twitter already have that base covered, as do glaziers who repair shopfront windows
Well, as least starting one is easy. .
One is that the CIA's siren servers will become so efficient that they will predict all social uprising and will be able to prevent it at home, or exploit it abroad*
Google Translate isn't helping much. Could you just post in English next time? Thanks!
Hillary is already President. It has been decided long ago. The election is just for show and, more important, to tell the loyal citizens from the soon-to-disappear malcontents (trump the chump supporters). If you have registered to vote, vote wisely. She IS already President, remember: you owe her your loyalty. Think of your loved ones.
So when your algo fails to predict "Social Unrest", it's not TRUE social unrest because there wasn't sufficient violence or property damage. (There's always some!)
"Pieces This is another intense month of revelation and change for you, Pisces, especially when you take into account the important factor of your ruler, Neptune...."
I picked a common Barnum word "revelation", chose my horoscope sign and this month and Google for a horoscope that fitted that and found one. That's the nature of Barnum statements, they're vague enough to fit any context as a means for your horoscope being 'true'.
"computer philosophy writer" is not a statisticians or data scientist job, its a horoscope writer, or Tarot card reader. This is just mumbo jumbo sold to gullible CIA people with too much money.
make calculated decisions on whether or not to intervene in any socially distressing situation.
As long as it fit within the budget,
~ People that think they are better than anyone else for any reason are the cause of all the strife in the world.
Deep learning and similar technologies require large datasets relative to the independent variables of the problem. I don't believe there is sufficiently large number of well documented events available to train any such AI engine and expect any confidence in the resulting predictions.
The CIA can predict, with pre-existing information the factors that exist that will cause social unrest.
But instead of fixing the factors that cause social unrest, much better to be able to know when it happens so that you can kill the people that are dissatisfied and disenfranchised instead of finding a way to include them
I didn't know Hillary Clinton was the director of the CIA
Polish Obama's knobs, strippers/hookers in the offices & hotel/motel rooms, drinkin', huffin' crack, pot, etc. Yup, that's just about all the CIA does.
It is a bit like the output from the Enigma machine, if you used the knowledge too much, the Germans would have worked out that they were being 'Hacked' and then start doing something else that could not be 'hacked' in the same way.
however, you can be better placed to pick up the pieces.
US citizens may be able to correct me, but I thought that the CIA was only allowed to snoop outside the US
- Agents sent to the field might be swayed by emotional or logical appeals.
- Remote surveillance means a permanent record and centralized control of both the data and the people using it.
- Social unrest is a threat to a police state and the status quo so "they" are doing everything to quell those things before they become popular enough to affect change.
- To paraphrase Alan Watts, all big institutions exist for themselves and their own continued existence and not the people they purport to serve. Remote everything plays to the military industrial complex's strengths. The machine intends to stay in power.
"We can predict the future" ...says the agency founded with the sole purpose of watching the Soviet Union, who watched it for nearly five decades, yet managed to entirely miss its collapse.
Sure.
-Styopa
I'm voting Trump too. Cum dumpsters for everyone!
Where will I do my free christmas shopping!
Gotta get my free negligee and fried chicken!
Trends. Knowing them before your competition does gives you ALL the power you need - to share, capitalize, enhance, destroy.
The thing is (and it will take decades to understand) is the regime, whether Corporate or Government (both) means a plantation slavery exists for most people - as long as they are plugged into the matrix.
Consider this concept and US elections. Google is - with the intent of supporting Hillary Clinton and the democratic party.
Here you are with all your deep learning and helper AI, looking at battleground states, specific districts and voting precincts - down to the house level. Overlay that with social media intelligence and presto you now have an extreme edge to solve or conflate that areas attitudes and value - hand out "jobs" to select voters in a prime election - or cut their power.
More and more information is falling into fewer hands that are unaccountable while they pursue unknown designs.
You just exist in this world.
Might as well be some refugee squatting in in a mountain cave.
If they want your ideas, opinion and participation - they'll give it to you.
Points for using vocabulary the overlords of the past were comfortable with
Jaron Lanier invented hipsters.
Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
We've got to march on Langely Virginia right now!
Have gnu, will travel.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
...unrest follows, Confucius say.
The most likely outcome is the expenditure of millions (perhaps billions) of dollars on a system that will never work.
It would likely either predict no events, or keep alerting at every minor thing.
When things get to the point of an upheaval your aren't going to stop it. But you can evacuate people, circle the wagons, etc.
There were plenty of warning that things were about to blow up in Libya a few years ago, but the ambassador in Benghazi was still caught in the middle and murdered. That could have been prevented.
it doesn't take a "super computer" to predict an agenda already laid out years in advance
I like to consider this issue through the PRISM of Equal Protection Under Law
Doesn't CIA do foreign intelligence?
Used to use people. Really smart guys that could predict this. They'd yank out people before things went to hell. Cuba, Iran are famous examples. Goes back about 100 years. They probably had ways even back then. Old police style work. The US used to send in people to fix things. Some people didn't like that. Guys like Castro, who is a monster. Look it up sometime, see what he used to do to people.
This is just part of the matrix. The real matrix. They're coming to get you aha, oho, ahee, ahoo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?...
In the legends, sirens lured the unwary to their deaths on the rocks...