Long-Range Projectiles For Navy's Newest Ship Too Expensive To Shoot (arstechnica.com)
An anonymous reader writes: The USS Zumwalt (DDG-1000) is the U.S. Navy's latest warship, commissioned just last month -- and it comes with the biggest guns the Navy has deployed since the twilight of the battleships. But it turns out the Zumwalt's guns won't be getting much of a workout any time soon, aside from acceptance testing. That's because the special projectiles they were intended to fire are so expensive that the Navy has canceled its order. As [Ars] described [Zumwalt's Advanced Gun System (AGS)] in a story two years ago: "The automated AGS can fire 10 rocket-assisted, precision-guided projectiles per minute at targets over 100 miles away. Those projectiles use GPS and inertial guidance to improve the gun's accuracy to a 50 meter (164 feet) circle of probable error -- meaning that half of its GPS-guided shells will fall within that distance from the target." The projectile responsible for that accuracy -- something far too complex to just be called a "shell" or "bullet" -- is the Long Range Land-Attack Projectile (LRLAP). Each projectile has precision guidance provided by internal global positioning and inertial sensors, and bursts of LRLAPs could in theory be fired over a minute following different ballistic trajectories that cause them to land all at the same time. Lockheed Martin won the competition to produce the LRLAPs, and the company described their capabilities thusly: "155mm LRLAP provides single strike lethality against a wide range of targets, with three times the lethality of traditional 5-inch naval ballistic rounds -- and because it is guided, fewer rounds can produce similar or more lethal effects at less cost. LRLAP has the capability to guide multiple rounds launched from the same gun to strike single or multiple targets simultaneously, maximizing lethal effects." The "less cost" part, however, turned out to be a pipe dream. With the reduction of the Zumwalt class to a total of three ships, the corresponding reduction in requirements for LRLAP production raised the production costs just as the price of the ships they would be deployed to soared. Defense News reports that the Navy is canceling production of the LRLAP because of an $800,000-per-shot price tag -- more than 10 times the original projected cost.
They have to be expensive, they are made of the very VERY finest pork!
Reminiscent of the remark made regarding firing $1 million cruise missiles at Afghanistan in 1998. "I can't think of anything in Afghanistan worth $1 million".
I propose that the ships should be financial organizations rather than military ones. For example, to fund the operations and perhaps to turn profitable even the smart missiles could pick and deliver goods to nearby customers before striking the targets.
It's because our government is not only wasting trillions of dollars on the DoD, but also the fact that the engineers working on this shit aren't working on things that provide any benefit to civilians.
-jcr
The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
It would have been interesting to see a comparison between a "machine learning combined with adaptive optics" style of fire control system, and this "smarter bullets" type of system.
All the scientists, engineers, doctors, nurses not trained, all the people that didn't get help when they needed it, all the tax money not spent on roads, education, bridges and hospitals, everyone made a willing and needed sacrifice so that the Navy could use that money developing a weapon system that is too expensive to use because that saves money.
It makes perfect sense.
My ism, it's full of beliefs.
We can save a lot of money if we stop with these expensive weapons systems and just start killing our enemies by throwing heavy bags of money at them.
Doing more damage to yourself than to your enemy. Great plan.
I'd say this all is classic over-engineering. As with the F35 JSF, Airbus A400M and Jaeger90 ... errrm, sorry, "Eurofighter". These projects have been running over time and budget for *decades* (you may guess when the Jaeger90 was supposed to enter service ...) and are just about outdated by drones and new types of asymmetric warfare when they'll finally will be finished.
Meanwhile the russians are gradually updating their Mig29s and Sukolevs with junkyard scraps or something and can actually fly. Like, they have pilots trained on them that can strap in and take off in 3.5 Minutes flat.
If I were king of the US i'd cancel these projects inmediately and do a maintainable iteration of existing aircraft.
Upgrade/iterate the F15, F16 and A10, get some new upgraded missiles and stuff and built 700 of each and get some pilots to learn to fly them.
This new warship is also not much more than some PR move/dick measuring contest of the US Navy vis-a-vis the other forces.
Insanely expensive and not really of any pivotal value in a conflict I would guess. Not much different than in WW1.
New-toy-cash would be way better invested in stealth drones or something.
My 2 cents.
We suffer more in our imagination than in reality. - Seneca
The human race will give up war, not when we become too civilised but when growing inefficiency and bureaucracy make it too expensive.
"It takes one million dollar to fire this weapon.... once"
A few things, after 5 minutes of Googling, in no particular order:
1) That max range was 100 km, not 100 miles; so, 53 miles. It's only been tested to 83km/45mi. And that's just the "let's see how far it will go" test.
2) Yeah, it's 155mm, but not compatible with any other 155mm munitions.
3) The elevation is 70 degrees, so it's really a guided missile launcher, not a "gun".
4) There's so much guidance and propulsion crap onboard, there's hardly any (24 lbs) room for the High Explosive for the warhead.
5) Most of the lethality estimates involve using the Multiple Round Simultaneous Impact theory. So the plan is to have half-a-dozen rounds land on target, at the same time. Good luck with that.
6) So, $80,000 per shot was the pie-in-the-sky target cost??? From a glorified cannon?
Don't worry - the UK are busy building aircraft carriers without any jets. So perhaps if you bring the jets the UK can provide some ammunition and Canada can provide the fuel? Clearly the reason recent conflicts have required coalitions is so each government's incompetence can be cancelled out.
It's the thing with fins, a GPS and a little actuators to move the fins, attached to a projectile isn't it?
If they can make drones for a few hundred dollars, it isn't the true cost of the projectile, its the price the company thinks the military would value it at. They guessed wrong it seems.
I sort of guess, the company figured that estimating the price at 80k, the military would buy the guns, and then get stiffed with the 800k price tagged once they were locked in, rather than admit they'd been screwed over.
Clearly you may aswell buy a missile and get better accuracy, range and more launch options than this. So the munitions supply priced it wrong and the military decided to cut their losses on the project.
I call these "missiles".
They cost as much as actual missiles too.
War is way more expensive than that, be it $80,000 or $800,000.
Of course, those who are married to the war cause won't let you think about that, because:
a) they want war and
b) they want the money that war gives them.
Be glad you don't know how much a shot costs you and your country: you'd sit in despair.
And if you are not interested... you're naive and the costs don't get reduced because of your attitude. Ignorance is bliss, but karma is coming for you anyway.
PS: If you're going to do some ad hominem and say I'm on a high horse, save your ink/electrons: I'm no better than anyone, I just decided to talk about that and nothing more. That is of limited value. And whatever candidate wins it today, I don't think that will mean much of a difference...
how much of that $800K/shell is from sunk costs like R&D that has already been spent.
They expected that the shells would be reasonably cheap when produced for 60 ships, but that same startup cost now is only being spread across 3 ships because the others have been canceled.
That doesn't make the production costs of individual shells _that_ much more expensive, just the overall program costs are split across far fewer shells, so the overall program costs per shell are much higher (even if the total cost of the program is less)
This is the same stupid logic that is applied any time they reduce production of something and then want to reduce it more because if they cancel 90% of a production run, the remaining 10% that are produced still are charged with the full R&D (including testing) budget, they actually only save 5-10% of the overall program costs. But they then act surprised that the remaining 10% now 'cost' 10x as much as before.
The B-2, and F-22 also suffered from this, if they had been built to the original quantities, the 'cost' of each plane would be 1/10 the 'cost' that they are listed at now.
For these shells, what is the cost to finish production from this point, forget about the money that's already been spent on the program, canceling the program doesn't make that money re-appear. I guarantee that it doesn't cost $800K to produce each shell once they are being manufactured.
David Lang
The Navy originally projected that they would buy thousands of rounds (to outfit 28 ships). Then they cut the order because they decided to only make 3 ships.
Well, you have a large fixed development cost.
The "per missile" cost = (DevCost + RealPerMissileCost)/N
naturally, when N goes down by a factor of 10, then the "per missile" cost will go up by nearly a factor of 10.
that just tells you that you can't look at it as a "per missile" cost.
This sounds like a complete screw up from the Navy; not at all clear how much of a screw up by the contractor.
Looks like Chris Rock called it. Well-done, sir.
nuclear weapons are cheaper and easier today
nukes get cheaper every day
Time and again we have been told private industry does things better than government. They're more efficient, less expensive and get things done more quickly.
That we are now talking about private industry over-promising and under-delivering sounds preposterous. Clearly someone has moved the commas to the wrong position. Simple artillery shells can't cost $800K. Private industry would never let that happen.
We will bankrupt ourselves in the vain search for absolute security. -- Dwight D. Eisenhower
For what we're spending, we could simply outbid any potential enemy for their own soldiers' services.
-jcr
The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
You guys are hilarious :D
Next Nobel peace prize should be awarded to the US gov for bringing humanity closer to eliminating warfare.
If you spend a brazillion dollars developing some fancy new weapons system and then only build a handful of them, of course it's going to have high unit cost.
Every single one of these programs goes like:
1) We're building something awesome, it's slightly more expensive than what came before because new technology which we had to invent
2) Congress- that IS awesome, make us a million units of it
3) Cost overruns during development, because titanium whizz-bangs haven't been done before
4) Congress- let's reduce our order size to save money- those things are 5 million dollars apiece- think of the savings!
5) Most of the money was spent on R&D, unit cost goes even higher!
6) Congress- let's reduce our order size to save money- those things are 20 million dollars apiece- think of the savings!
7) Most of the cost was spent on R&D, unit co... you get the idea
n) The company produces 10 units of the new system at a cost of 30 trillion dollars, Chinese and Russians steal the plans and make them for 50k a piece.
This is why the B-2 bomber and the F-22 are both so ridiculously expensive per-unit. If they had purchased the originally intended amount, the unit cost would have been far lower and they would have ended up with a much larger number of planes for nearly the same cost.
We have other 155mm artillery, such as the M284 (commonly mounted on a M109 Paladin chassis). Current versions of the Paladin have capabilities eerily similar to the desired capabilities of the Zumwalt's guns.
So, how exactly did these geniuses develop what appears to be the same gun, with the same capabilities, but somehow make it incompatibly different?
See that "Preview" button?
VA spending (about $187B/year) isn't defense spending, you tool.
We would not have VA spending if we did not have defense spending.
emt 377 emt 4
Just make these in China!
Plot a timeline. Start in 1945.
1945.
When the P-51 was the main-line US land-based fighter. That was 71 years ago.
The F-15 first flew in 1972. That's 44 years ago.
The F-16 first flew in 1974. That's 42 years ago.
Design work on both planes extends well back into the 1960s - fifty years ago.
Technology wise, those are ANCIENT designs. They are literally closer to the P-51 Mustang than they are to today.
True.
Most of the people signing up for ISIS are doing because ISIS pays well, not because they really, really believe in Allah/Islam/etc.
No sig today...
I think it's officially more expensive to fire this gun for any length of time than Heavy Weapons Guy's projected cost of firing Sasha.
Whos going to invade the US ?? Canada or Mexico ? Maybe China will sneak a couple of million heavily armed troops over the Pacific while nobody is watching ???
Looks like the defense industry figured out how to earn lots of money selling arms while making an actual large-scale war way too expensive.
"more than 10 times the original projected cost."
Thought they had to be at least 20 times higher before they did anything
You wouldn't NEED a VA if there was no defense spending, because that would mean you had no defense and no veterans.
VA Spending is just massively delayed military spending. If you didn't promise medical for life, you wouldn't have the VA.
(Just to be clear, I am not advocating for less VA spending, and in fact I would allocate more to help the PTSD and other health issues plaguing our soldiers from Afghanistan and Iraq. But lowering the spending on the current military system is still something we can do without lowering spending on past military ventures, which the VA most certainly is.)
This is getting stupid, we could halve our total force size and still double defense spending at the drop of a hat. The ratio of defense spending to VA spending is arbitrary.
The VA isn't defense spending, period.
Gold plated toilets filled with diamonds? Waste of tax-payers money.
... in 60 years, because veterans * shit they need has no relationship to today's defense spending, or 60 year ago defense spending, but how many veterans we created from then till now and how long they live.
Only 50 Meters accuracy for this expensive crap?
Since cheap drones could send guided missiles through a tiny the bathroom window of a bunker 10 years ago, this seems a bit poor.
They are switching to a variant of the slug fired from the mass accelerator they have been testing for years. The projectile has a similar range when fired from a cannon or accelerator. No moving marts. Great accuracy and aerodynamics.
You might find it interesting to spend even 30 seconds reading the history of rockets. Hint- they went to the moon atop a missile.
Quite true. And what would happen after no defense?
emt 377 emt 4
Perhaps on a clear day with little wind.
That's what the GPS is for.
Also note that this new projectile is 155mm (6.1in) or about half the size of the big guns from WW1.
Its a Destroyer gun and US Destroyers have been armed with 5 inch guns. So the shell is about 20% larger.
Tell me again how the Iowas were too expensive to maintain.
But what I want to know is who thought $80000 a round was a realistic price in the first place?
I guess cutting the US military budget is really going to hurt their safety after all.
For a projectile aimed at something 100 miles away, it's going to be very difficult to tell, in real time, whether you've hit the target or not. The best you could do would be to have a drone nearby to report back. But if you can operate a drone in theatre, why not use that to fire a missile of its own?
politicians are like babies' nappies: they should both be changed regularly and for the same reasons
And if any of the senators survive, the enemy will gladly accept a trade.
"We'll give you three of our leaders and lay down arms if only you take this ****** back!"
how much of that $800K/shell is from sunk costs like R&D that has already been spent.
They expected that the shells would be reasonably cheap when produced for 60 ships, but that same startup cost now is only being spread across 3 ships because the others have been canceled.
That doesn't make the production costs of individual shells _that_ much more expensive, just the overall program costs are split across far fewer shells, so the overall program costs per shell are much higher (even if the total cost of the program is less)
This is the same stupid logic that is applied any time they reduce production of something and then want to reduce it more because if they cancel 90% of a production run, the remaining 10% that are produced still are charged with the full R&D (including testing) budget, they actually only save 5-10% of the overall program costs. But they then act surprised that the remaining 10% now 'cost' 10x as much as before.
The B-2, and F-22 also suffered from this, if they had been built to the original quantities, the 'cost' of each plane would be 1/10 the 'cost' that they are listed at now.
Indeed. This is the well know "death spiral" in DoD acquisitions: costs go up, quantity is reduced, so costs go up even more, quantity is reduced again, rinse and repeat... The F-35 now teters on the edge of this fiscal black hole
This sounds eerily like the pre-WWII thinking about the torpedoes the Navy had such high hopes in. Early testing was very short because of cost and the torpedoes looked fine. The problem was that the production torpedoes were never tested because of expense and they had a major flaw. By some accounts, the majority of the torpedoes used in the early years of WWII were duds. It was only after the submarine captains complained bitterly were the torpedoes were properly tested and the flaw discovered.
The more things change, the more that the problems are the same.
Range, speed, and impact.
Drones are good for smaller, precise stuff, generally against entrenched land positions. I believe that these are supposed to have more penetrating power and generally would be pretty difficult to shoot down versus a drone.
The Saturn design process, with the various competing proposals from different branches of the military, is a bit complex and confusing. Anyway they ended up with a Frankenmissile, using the engines from the Thor and Jupiter missles with small upgrades, and various parts from other missiles. Originally it was designed for launching spy satellites. So military technology through and through.
That specific configuration of missile parts wasn't designed to have a warhead attached, just spy gear, but it was still a bunch of missile parts.
From the article:
"155mm LRLAP provides single strike lethality against a wide range of targets, with three times the lethality of traditional 5-inch naval ballistic rounds".
The really disturbing part is that these $800k shells buy us a whopping THREE times the lethality of a traditional 5-inch round.
Just. Wow.
------ The best brain training is now totally free : )
Hmm, I wonder if you offered $1m and immunity to prosecution to any ISIS soldier who killed all of his squadmates and defected how long ISIS would last...
I am TheRaven on Soylent News
Reminds me of a joke (might have been from Bill Maher) that went along the lines of: The drug cartels made about 20 billion in profit last year. We spent 30 billion on the war on drugs. Why don't we offer them 25 billion to just sit on their butts?
Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
Washing machines & phones Toss a samsung phone into a samsung washing machine, set it to "spin" mode. Fire it at the bad guy....BOOM!
Isn't zumwalt getting a rail gun anyway?
Seriously, the rail gun is the way to go. These only costs less than $100 / shot. And ideally, they will move the rail gun to a gatling gun approach to deal with the cooling issue. But the ability to fire at 1 x / second would be a big deal.
I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
+5 Funny, but the French Foreign Legion is fundamentally this idea. Side benefit: if a few of them die, you don't have local media all upset, you don't lose elections over that. Dark but painfully obvious.
Cheaper, and those on the receiving end will desert their posts and Buy American thereafter.
Keep in mind many peoples' using das phone with auto corrrectingishness. That's will oat drive crazy to you. Hehe.
My phone fucks up spelling almost everytime. And I certainly do not review what I write when I post unless I believe it's important. Which is rare; I am an idiot.
If I was the enemy, I wouldn't bother sinking these ships, just let them keep firing. A week of fighting and your enemy is bankrupt. Then sink them.
The rounds are only this expensive because fixed costs don't go down when you massively decrease the order. The marginal costs per round are comparatively tiny, we just wouldn't be buying very many. (We decided to get by with three instead of twenty some ships). The gun itself is very good and reasonable, we just didn't have any plans to use it on something else.
While on the surface that seems like a good idea, you have to look at how the market will adapt. Paying a criminal not to do the crime just creates a bigger market for criminals, looking to get paid NOT to do the crime, even those that wouldn't normally have been doing the crime, due to risks and other factors.
That $20B they made was an investment, not just in materials and effort, but in risk (of arrest or death) and direct loss. (materials, deaths, arrests, etc) You can't look at all $20B as pure profit because it's not, not even close.
Let me ask you how much I'd have to pay you to sit and do nothing for a year. Now ask me how much I'd have to pay you to sit and do nothing for a year, with an added 10% chance of your getting killed as a result. Now how about 10% chance of death PLUS a 25% chance of 10 years in prison. See how the costs go up? It has a high value because it has a high risk. Remove the risks, and the bottom falls out on the value.
I work for the Department of Redundancy Department.
The military steals young capable men and women from the work force, and does not produce anything, so output-wise they have no contribution to the economy. Indirectly all these people need clothes, desks, sleeping quarters, training facilities, cars, boats, planes, weapons and ammo. That is a huge cost with no economical return. You might as well pay all military people unemployment benefits and send them home, and give the money to arms manufacturers directly.
That is why there are several countries in the world that do not have an army (like Costa Rica and iceland) and do quite well economically.
A bigger army is only useful if you plan to use it.
Back in the Vietnam War, one of my favorite humor columnists (Art Buchwald) compared what we were spending on the war, number of enemy dead, and what the Mafia was charging at that time for a contract murder. The Mafia was cheaper.
"When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
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You'd think the hint would be taken: using technology as a military advantage has limits because you can and will reach a point of diminishing returns. When some goofball with a $100 drone can negate or destroy a $1B piece of equipment. At that point, the goofball has already won the battle and the war!! Just because you can create more corpses (at an insane price) doesn't mean you are powerful!! This is why the US hasn't really won a war since WWII!!
There's something wrong with your display. Where I typed "joke" it's showing "serious actual proposal".
Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
There's something wrong with your display. Where I typed "joke" it's showing "serious actual proposal".
That's just the Internet, it does not have any way to indicate humor.
But paying "Danegeld" is known not to work. Since before either one of us was born. And "I was born about 10,000 years ago." ;-)