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188,000 Evacuated As California's Massive Oroville Dam Threatens Catastrophic Floods (washingtonpost.com)
Mr D from 63 quotes a report from The Washington Post: About 188,000 residents near Oroville, Calif., were ordered to evacuate Sunday after a hole in an emergency spillway in the Oroville Dam threatened to flood the surrounding area. Thousands clogged highways leading out of the area headed south, north and west, and arteries major and minor remained jammed as midnight approached on the West Coast -- though by early Monday, Lake Oroville's water level had dropped to a point at which water was no longer spilling over. The lake level reached its peak of 902.59 feet at about 3 a.m. Sunday and dropped to 898 feet by 4 a.m. Monday, according to the Sacramento Bee. Water flows over the emergency spillway at 901 feet. "The drop in the lake level was early evidence that the Department of Water Resources' desperate attempt to prevent a catastrophic failure of the dam's emergency spillway appeared to be paying dividends," the Bee reported Monday. Officials doubled the flow of water out of the nearly mile-long primary spillway to 100,000 cubic feet per second. The normal flow is about half as much, but increased flows are common at this time of year, during peak rain season, officials said. But water officials warned that damaged infrastructure could create further dangers as storms approach in the week ahead, and it remained unclear when residents might be able to return to their homes.
Now it's time for Water World!
That's what you get when trying to turn a desert into a water-starved living area.
Great minds think alike; fools seldom differ.
When I walked into a coffee shop in Palo Alto before 7AM this morning, people were sitting down or standing up while watching the local news about the dam.
This is just another example of how dirty hydroelectric energy generation actually is.
While this is nothing compared to the Banqiao Dam failure (which resulted in almost two hundred thousand deaths), I think it's clear from this that hydroelectric energy just isn't safe.
Let alone the long-term ecological effects from contaminated water.
I urge green activists across the planet to hold the hydroelectric power industry responsible for this glaring oversight!
and for once, that is not a good thing.
considering the state is in a drought half the time. If only there was a way to build a wall or something to hold the water until it was needed.
They are fixing the blister on the emergency spillway as we speak and they are able to drain off excess water on the main spillway for now. The coming week of rain will be the test, but as long as they're able to fix the blister there's really no risk of the damn "failing catastrophically" - and if the blister were to erode the emergency spillway completely leading to an uncontrollable deluge, while VERY BAD, it wouldn't be nearly as bad as the dam failing. Basically it's under control unless xyz happens, which is why they're continuing the evacuation because they can't be 100% certain, and if it did happen, it would happen quickly.
If I were a betting man I'd put all monies on the dam being just fine. They initially thought the spillway was going to slough off completely. It's not going to.
I was watching last week when the bad cracks in primary spillway gave way and limited its use. Of course, that didn't stop Governor Moonbeam last night, who finally addressed the issue at 11pm over a week after we knew this was going to be a problem, from playing politics and blaming global warming. The requirements for the dam were created in the late 1950's, and this hasn't exceeded the design capacity of the dam. The problem is that the damaged spillway can't be used at full capacity because of bad maintenance. Well, maybe even that isn't a strong enough term since the last time the spillway was inspected it was done visually at a distance.
The dam is for water management first, electrical power generation second, and flood control third. You can concern troll about hydro if you want, but it's mostly inappropriate here.
People who say "sheeple" have about as much sophistication as an AOL user, and in fact are probably actually AOL users.
It's interesting that everyone's trying to put a political spin on this, and finger pointing is starting.
First, T supporters say T should only give emergency assistance if CA swears away from "sanctuary cities". CA's response is that CA has always paid into the fed just like every other state, and that one political issue shouldn't be used as a threat against another.
Second, is the reason for not preventing this. There was concern of weakness in the dam's overflow systems going back years. Different experts gave different opinions. It seems it was on the borderline of being problematic, at least on paper. If it's only on the borderline of being a problem, then expensive fixes tend to get ignored.
It may also be a case of "cascading failure" whereby the backup (overflow handling) failed, and then the secondary backup also failed. Sometimes bleep just happens under extreme weather. Other CA damns and water systems held up; the chance of all them working perfectly is slim. If you have hundreds of water systems, at least a few will have notable problems during heavy rains just out of shear probability.
Large dams are probably a thing of the past, in part because they are a single big point of failure, and in part because they screw up the existing state of nature. Smaller sub-dams are the preferred way now, if any. But we still have to maintain the big old ones because many existing dwellings and roads rely on them to work.
Table-ized A.I.
If President Trump really wants to create American jobs I can think of a trillion's worth of core infrastructure projects that are "shovel ready".
ASCE 2013 Report Card for America's Infrastructure[Spoiler: It's a D.]
It’s Time to Fix America’s Infrastructure. Here’s Where to Start
New USDOT Report on Highway, Transit Conditions Reveals America’s $926 Billion Infrastructure Investment Need
I just wanted to post some info before everyone spins this as a partisan failure of one sort or another.
1) The dam was built and is owned by California.
2) California was warned about the potential problem (the one we are currently seeing) in 2005.
3) In 2005, as part of the federal re-licensing procedure for the dam, several groups urged federal officials to require that the dam’s [earthwork] emergency spillway be upgraded to concrete. The federal government declined.
4) The dam was built at a time when requirements were less strict in comparison to today's standards. The dam foundations were dug down to "weathered" rock, which is less structurally sound than "bedrock".
And finally,
5) As much as people feel the need for karma or justice or revenge or whatever, we DO NOT punish people's lives and homes over partisan bullshit. The federal government should (and most probably will) assist in any way that they can to help avoid a disaster.
As has been pointed out by many people, California spent several billions of dollars on the hyperloop while letting this particular bit of infrastructure upgrade get ignored. Both California and the Federal government (viz: the licensing mentioned above) can share the blame for this.
It's another Katrina-like situation: both governments (Cali and Federal) were warned, did nothing, and now it's an emergency.
Also of note, and I'm trying to look at the big picture here and not point fingers, it's been pointed out that the infrastructure in our country has been neglected for a long time (especially roads, bridges, and the electrical grid), and we really need to start fixing up things.
Fixing our infrastructure was one of the campaign promises of the party in power, perhaps this will galvanize them to action.
The issues started to appear in reports about 10 years ago. When the issues became big leaky cracks a few years back, the dumbocrats swept the problem under the rug with government experts saying "no problem!".
Time to pay the debt with interest, Oroville!
California didn't vote Trump, so fuck those guys.
First, Oroville, California, gets 52 inches of rain per year. NOT a desert.
According to US climate data 30.7 inches of precipitation per year
http://www.usclimatedata.com/c...
which is about 20% less than the national average
https://rainfall.weatherdb.com...
Still: not a desert.
http://www.geoffreylandis.com
another excuse to raise water utility rates statewide.
That water starved desert grows much of the nations food.
And by "the nation", you mean "China", which won't eat it's own rice, due to the pollution, right?
I don't know what rock you've been living under. For years, client scientists have been saying that AGW will bring about more droughts and more floods. Those two items are in no way mutually exclusive.
Guess how many of these quickly build damn dams exist in California.
The next 160 year cycle of Pineapple Express mega-floods is due in 2022. Geologists know the cycles from core sediments, which are indisputable.
Can they retrofit dams in time? Will they even try? Will it make any difference if they do retrofit? Will any bureaucrat get fired? I am betting NO.
Do the dam and water engineers already acknowledge this and the bureaucracy keep quiet on it, just like at Oriville Dam?
Anytime you put more energy into a closed system, the number of possible states increases.
snowflake.
So does Mr. Peabody, but he recently declared bankruptcy.
I have an idea!
Why don't we put all the water back into the aquifers we've been taking it out of, instead of letting it out, and down to the pacific?
What a lamentable situation! If only someone could invent something to do that!
Oh. Wait. They did. In 1992.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
1992, though, was 25 years ago.
What a lamentable situation! If only a millennial could reinvent old technology in ignorance, thinking it was new, to do that!
Well, that's just fucking delusional.
Try actually reading & understanding the second paragraph.
Even though the findings suggest that the drought is primarily a consequence of natural climate variability, the scientists added that the likelihood of any drought becoming acute is rising because of climate change.
There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
"You are mistaken. Climate change due to fossil fuel is blamed for ALL displacements of people for weather events like flood and drought." That distinction is critical, and not maintaining the distinction is intellectually dishonest. History is full of records dating back thousands of years describing floods and droughts which caused mass migration, famine, and all of the illness that comes with those things. Those are not from "fossil fuel", but normal natural events.
Rational discussion with people who are intellectually dishonest is a fruitless pursuit, which is why there are so many fervent skeptics. Passing blame and claiming everyone should pay taxes with no plan of action has resulted in absolutely no progress on real issues from Fossil fuels, like pollution. The barrage of appeals to emotion and "nuh uh" responses get us nowhere.
-The wise argue that there are few absolutes, the fool argues that there are no probabilities.
Politicians like Jerry Governor Moonbeam Brown and his Cal Water Authority Engineers are costing legal citizens of California a lot of money and property for their bumbling and direct creation of the Oroville Dam crisis.
First, the Oroville Dam crisis was created 3 years ago when Gov Moonbeam agreed with his Human Global Warming Alarmists in D.C. to stage an event, The Great Drought of California. Southern California is a semi-arid desert and has been for at least the most recent 3-million years and in the last 50-million years have cycled from tropical to semi-arid conditions as known form geologic evidence. However, to appease the GW alarmists Gov Moonbeam imposed water reductions to the LA basin to exacerbate the political climate to force through his Communist political agenda. Trouble is to do that the dams in northern California had to withhold water outflows to the water redistribution system by the Cal Water Authority and the LA Water District Authority (collusion and cash bribes to officials) which caused the northern California reservoirs, like the Oroville Dam, to gain water. Then the La Nina phase of ENSO happened -- i.e. heavy rain/snow totals. Result, northern California reservoirs like the Oroville Dam are over capacity and near real catastrophic failure, Oroville Dam being the first of many.
Who is to blame for the Political Catastrophe?
Jerry Governor Moonbeam Brown! And his happy get-some lucky California Water Authority Engineers.
...For years, client scientists have been saying that AGW will bring about more droughts and more floods...
There is a term for researchers of that kind: "Climateurs"
High density power sources generally are.
If the levee breaks and washes away the legislature in Sacramento is that carbon positive, neutral, or negative? What about the snail darter and silvery minnow?
"I say we take off, nuke the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure."
The people of California believed the global warming lie that their debt would never end, and they cut funding that should have gone to pay for spillway maintenance.
Bonus points for anyone who can find the original stories that said California was cutting spillway maintenance funds because they would never need the spillways given that global warming was going to cause a never ending drought.
Yep. So, why worry about flooding, if we are in the middle of a drought — made worse by Trump and his Nazis?..
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
You're a moron. Floods and droughts are BOTH PREDICTED by climate change studies. They call it "weather extremes" outside of norms. Try harder coalies.
New and shiny will always attract funding. Old and boring, not so much.^W^W^W^W^W^W^W Corrupt politicians don't care about people once elected, they care about more power.
-The wise argue that there are few absolutes, the fool argues that there are no probabilities.
As far as I know, the Banqiao Dam was build for flood control.
Wasn't long ago you were crying for water. Now you got it.
I love it when people demand citations, but post none of their own.
Ah, the Ukrainian dumbass is back. Now he is too stupid to realise that a drought in one place doesn't mean a drought elsewhere. Let ke explain it so you can understand: Frankfurt am Main is on the roughly same latitude as Kharkov, but when they had -20 degrees Celsius and a shitload of snow, we had +8 and a drizzle, which is, by the way, not how a winter is supposed to be in Germany. It has been years since we had snow for longer than a couple of days. Last January I saw birds trying to find food for their chicks. In January. That is global warming, dumbass.
"It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
Based on what I've read, which is various reports and images from anywhere in the timeline, this is what it sounds like has happened (from someone who lives 1000's of miles from CA). Please correct or verify where needed:
-Lake O was way down due to drought
-Lake O is now under massive flooding with more massive rain expected next week
[These should be in chrono order from top to bottom]
-Operational Spillway opened to reduce lake level
-Operational Spillway's base / floor cement fails making a big scour under & toward the dam side of the spillway. Water is going out the scour or down the spillway. Sides of spillway are intact and this is about halfway down the chute (not a direct threat to retaining wall unless scour goes back that far)
-Operational spillway shut down for eval. Engi's indicate emergency spillway may come into operation during inspection due to rising lake level
-Authorities try to quickly clear trees and rocks in emergency spillway's path
-Emergency spillway begins to discharge
-Emergency spillway has failure "blister" in the spillway up on the retaining wall--failure would mean retaining wall faliure
-Evacuations ordered
-Operational spillway put back into usage despite damage at 2x previous capacity, since lower chute failure isn't as bad as retaining wall failure
-Emergency spillway stops discharging due to lower lake level
-Operational spillway stopped temporarily for analysis--image indicated entire chute structures where the hole was is now gone
(http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/13/damaged-emergency-spillway-at-nations-tallest-dam-forces-massive-evacuations-in-california.html)
-Operational spillway reopened, images look like the bottom portion of the chute is partially or totally disintegrated.
(http://www.disclose.tv/action/viewvideo/231931/complete_failure_imminent_oroville_dam_spillway_in_danger_of_failing/)
When the Banqiao dam system failed in 1975, killing 230,000, the hydro lobby's excuse was that because Chinese dams were built to different design standards from the US, such an accident could never happen here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
But this failure of a modern American design means that the hydro lobby has finally run out of excuses. No matter how up-to-date the design, no dam is walkaway safe. No large project can be built without the possibility of corner-cutting by some person at some time. Some of this country's largest dams are approaching 80 years of age, and there are no provisions for dealing with the costs of eventual decommissioning. And after all these years, nobody knows how to deal with the increasing amount of leftover silt.
You're a moron, just go.
The government should build evacuation cities. This City should be able to hold three hundred thousand to a million people for up to a month at a time. Maybe instead of a fence along the Texas border they should build one long Motel.
Maybe we should get it from Florida, instead of the ecological disaster which is California's water laws. And, entitled turd, you don't actually need fresh tomatoes in January. People lived quite well before they had engineered fresh fruit out of season.
This is terrible. I guess since they want to secede they won't be asking for federal dollars?
"For years, client scientists have been saying that AGW will bring about more droughts and more floods."
Then why until this last rainy year has every story floated by the Church of Warminetics used the same stock photo of a dry lakebed?
Don't be hating, suchechka.
The flooding happening now and the drought blamed on AGW last year are happening in the same place. That same Oroville lake was "water starved" only a couple of months ago.
Last January I saw birds trying to find food for their chicks. In January. That is global warming
No, dumbass, that's merely weather.
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
You're a moron, just go.
Citations are hard, let's go namecalling...
Regardless of the cause, the task for us now is certainly to tear down and replace this dam. Not a problem, an opportunity to see what we can do better this time. Spend the money, endure the inconvenience, pay the price and get the job done.
Electricity is dangerous. I've seen video of Edison killing elephants just by touching them with wires!
Ok, post your citations demonstrating that the predictions have not come true. All you need is
A link to the published prediction
A link to confirmation of the prediction not coming true.. Outside, say, 20% of the predicted value (if quantifiable)
The two links must be published at least several years apart. Inaccurately predicting tomorrow's weather does not count.
The prediction must be marginally useful.
Read? Set! Go!
I've seen you do this before. I'm not wasting my time going down your semantic rat hole.
The preconceived conclusions are so thoroughly baked in to your reactionary mind that there is no possible external input of information from the real world that could ever cause you to admit that you're wrong.
Why on Earth would I want to spend money testing a Backup Solution that we'll never use?! Did you forget that California is in a drought???
At least the people of Oroville got a warning.... :P
Do you not understand the word 'variability'?
There are two types of people in the world: Those who crave closure
EVERYTHING is consistent with CAGW, so we all must believe in it for many more decades. And since the science is settled, we can cut funding by 90% and retrain climate scientists to work in engineering and manufacturing for solar panels, wind turbines, etc.
For years, client scientists have been saying that AGW will bring about more droughts and more floods.
The question this brings to mind is "who's clients are the scientists?"
-The wise argue that there are few absolutes, the fool argues that there are no probabilities.
Both predictions have not failed. As your parents pointed out.
If you need links then I suggest to use google or offer some money, I'm not doing 'work' for you for free that you could do your own.
Surprising that you are running around in the world and can not be bothered to notice what is happening around you.
Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
No it is not weather, because:
A) it happens every year since decades, but 20 to 30 years go we had winters like you have, hint: latitude
B) the birds are supposed to have flown south, as they used to do when we had real winters
Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
It's a reservoir to hold water long-term and supply it as-needed. During heavy rains, it fills to avoid flooding downstream since the rain will supply the water necessary. During the dry season, water is released downstream for supply.
There is a separate mechanism that releases water when the reservoir gets full. There's only so much flood protection you can provide with a fixed-size reservoir and massive rainfall.
Freedom to fear. Freedom from thought. Freedom to kill.
I guess the War on Terror really is about freedom!
Scientists rarely use stock photos of any kind in their publications, so you're not responding, just insinuating and deflecting.
Wow that's...that's pretty damn ignorant. Global Warming is as much about floods as drought.....talk about uneducated.
Mi : You're a fucking moron.
There's actually 2 things going on.
The existing spillway is made of concrete, and suffered some structural damage.
Here is an image of the damage, from a couple of days ago, and here is that same spillway today.
The lower half of the spillway is probably completely gone. The raging water might erode up to the level of the dam, but that's not likely.
The actual problem was the emergency spillway, which is an earthen bank to the left (looking up to the dam) of the regular spillway.
You can see the damage in this image. Note that one of the eroded canyons reaches almost up to the level of the water.
If the erosion had reached the emergency spillway it would have burst, releasing a whole lot of water downstream.
Here's a closeup, and note the middle lower portion of the image. We were that close to a breech.
That didn't happen, and the waters are now below emergency levels.
However, the situation is rather precarious and the emergency spillway could still burst. There's still a lot of water still coming in to the reservoir, which is being frantically lowered.
(And yes, I wrote "Hyperloop" when I meant "High Speed Rail" above.)
The spillway failed due to a construction issue. Had it not failed, its capacity would have been adequate.
I believe you are confusing the [concrete] regular spillway with the [earthen] emergency spillway.
The concrete spillway is gone, but this doesn't seem to be a safety issue.
The earthen emergency spillway eroded almost all the way back to the berm, which would have resulted in a dam breech. That's what everyone is worried about.
I posted an update response above, with images.
Do we also need to get it notarized by God and submit it while rubbing our bellies, patting our heads and hopping on one foot?
Would you actually accept that or would you just punt saying lucky guess.
Perhaps you don't pay attention to the news, but Ca has indeed experienced an extended drought and is now seeing floods. Sorry, but nobody was able to predict the rainfall down to the mm.
Weather in a lot of places has been getting steadily stranger.
This is why California's increasing interest in secession is laughable. Not to mention California's state debt, unfunded future liabilities, and bankrupt cities.
See also the left screaming, "Racist!" the last time anyone else floated the idea of secession.
What does safety have to do with "dirty"?
And the dam was built for flood control, not power, the power was just added later, because they could.
Learn to love Alaska
Scientists rarely use stock photos of any kind in their publications, so you're not responding, just insinuating and deflecting.
My beef is not with scientists, but with the political screech owls who write scare articles that purport to interpret science. Isaac Asimov they're not, just hacks whose whole agenda is to insinuate and deflect.
"Sometimes bleep just happens under extreme weather."
There was no extreme weather, not even unusual. It rained...duh....the dam filled up....duh...planned and designed water release spillways partially failed when used as intended.
This is not symmetrical — what you demand is that I prove a negative. It is equivalent to demanding from a man claiming to be single an affidavit from every woman, stating, she is not his wife.
There are plenty of patently failed predictions by Climate Scientists, but that does not prove, none have come true. All you need to prove me wrong is find a couple of successful ones. And yet, you can't...
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
There, there. That's how logical people win arguments — even while losing the popular vote.
OMG! "Reactionary"?!? That takes me back to my childhood in the USSR — with weekly denunciations of "reactionary" capitalist oppressors in school...
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
In the 20+ years since "Global Warming" became "a thing", there should by now be plenty of successful predictions. If you can cite just 3, I'll concede, that the discipline is not entirely hopeless.
Both happened before — and I do offer citations.
Yeah, and asteroids are passing closer and closer more and more often — must be all of that bovine meteorism (pun intended).
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
what you demand is that I prove a negative.
Nope. I am not asking you to prove anything. I'm asking for citations where the predictions were way off.
There are plenty of patently failed predictions by Climate Scientists
Yet you've provided zero. Odd.
All you need to prove me wrong is find a couple of successful ones
Nope. If you actually believe in science, I have to provide you with successful ones that survived peer review and replication in order to begin to "prove" climate change.
Instead, I'm asking for the evidence behind your assertion, that climate scientists have repeatedly been waaaay off in their predictions.
So everything is proof of AGW. Sounds like the secularist's equivalent of "Everything is evidence that god exists."
You can control many of the negative aspects of hydroelectric, nuclear, wind & solar. The negative aspects of fossil fuels however (co2, arsenic, mercury, lead, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide) by their very nature however are next to impossible to contain. You can contain nuclear materials, evacuate before a dam failure, etc, but you can't exactly collect all of the nasty crap coming out of your tailpipe.
So we're up to 3 now and the best you'll do is concede that it's not totally hooey? Sounds like a lot of work for little gain to me.
If you don't want to be ignorant, perhaps you should look in to it. I'm also not going to do your math homework.
At least as far as stuff like fruit and leaf crops, not having as much mold (like right before harvest) which causes rot and destroys the crop's commercial value is a big reason CA agriculture has been so successful compared to places that get a lot of rain like the US South East. It turns out it is easier to deal with the lack of water (by taking it from others) than deal with the risk of rain at the wrong time. Indoor agriculture may change that eventually though.
A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
You can't add a hydro plant after the fact. All dams are at least dual purpose, just one is primary.
John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
Climate change predicts a lot of things such as more extreme weather events becoming more common.
The California drought is the worst that's happened in the state in the last 1000 years.
If anything, many of the predictions were overly conservative.
In 2001 the IPCC predicted that sea level would rise 2mm/year. It's actually rising 3.3mm/year. They predicted that the arctic ice sheet would melt in 50-70 years in 2006. It's now predicted to melt by 2052.
Here are some predictions that came true:
1. The sea level is rising in most places, though at the high end (or higher) than original predictions (3.2mm/year vs 2mm).
2. The sea level fell near Greenland as predicted due to the loss of mass and the gravitational pull of that mass.
3. Extreme weather events were predicted to become more common with climate change. This is happening as "about 25% of moderate daily hot extremes can be attributed to warming.".
4. The predicted radiative forcing effect from CO2 has been observationally confirmed.
This post is encrypted twice with ROT-13. Documenting or attempting to crack this encryption is illegal.
EVERYTHING is consistent with CAGW, so we all must believe in it for many more decades.
Here are examples of something that's not consistent with CAGW:
- No increase, or a decrease, in extreme weather events.
- Global mean temperature reduction on a roughly 10-year scale.
- Lowering concentration of atmospheric CO2.
CAGW is falsifiable. But since you skeptics can't find anything to prove it wrong, you toss around strawman arguments like that.
Second - yes, this is a 'natural disaster', because that's exactly the term we use when the natural phenomena dump ridiculous amounts of water in a particular location. In other places it produces devastating floods, like last year in South Carolina. Here California was somewhat lucky, because they had a dam like this in place with an empty resevoir that absorbed it - and that wall of water would otherwise be flooding the valley below, along with all the people who live there, and may yet still if the emergency spillway collapses.
If failure to maintain the dam so that it can't cope with unusual (but not unprecedented) rain is a natural disaster, then failure to design your power station so that it withstand an unusual (but not unprecedented) tsunami is a natural disaster.
Thank you for trying, AaronW, but you missed the first requirement I posted:
Your list of four "successes" does not include a single prediction being made. You only cite the confirmations. Why do I insist on this first requirement? It is because without it, anyone can be "a scientist" — by making multitude of "predictions" and then publishing only those, that materialize.
For example, when tossing a coin, I can write down two "predictions" — heads and tails — and, after the coin settles, publish the successful paper while quietly discarding the failed one. So, no, any citations you wish to make answering my challenge must include separate links — to prediction and its confirmation. And, the third requirement, the links' publication dates need to be some years apart...
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
These are a dime-a-dozen. The Internet is full of such lists assembled. But they don't necessarily disprove anything — it is normal for a scientific discipline to fail sometimes. This article even analyzes different ways of detecting and dealing with such failures.
Trouble is, successful ones are so hard to find...
Scientists predicted in 2000 that kids would grow up without snow. Dr. David Viner, a scientist with the climatic research unit at the University of East Anglia, told the UK Independent in 2000. Fail. “End of skiing” in Scotland. Predicted in 2004:It is now 2017, but snow is still plentiful in Scotland. Indeed, the 2014 was the snowiest since 1945. Do you think, the 2004 prediction will come true by 2024?
The Arctic would be “ice-free” The 2007 prediction, echoed by Al Gore, promised "ice-fre Arctic":Whether or not Arctic sea ice is at "record low" or not, the Arctic Ocean is decidedly not "ice-free" today.
I made no claims requiring citations. I merely pointed out, that folks claiming "science is settled" typically disappear, when asked for successful prediction of their favorite science.
That may be too onerous a requirement in the case of Climate Science — the experiments take many years, so any replication is difficult.
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
Citations?
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
You can citate my older posts on this topic, or of the parent "dunkelfalke" as we both live in this area.
Wow, that was easy again :D
Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
That's not, how it works — you claim something, you cite evidence.
Besides, your own posts is not evidence even if you properly cited them. And their contents — local observations — aren't evidence of planet-wide climate change either. Otherwise, you'll have to accept my citations of the local electric company-data average temperatures for, which show this winter to be (much) colder than the previous.
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
As a businessman, he is aware of the need to maintain facilities and such - when you fail to do so, your business is eventually damaged.
Typical politicians, on the other hand, love to get a big pile of money and spend it building big new shiny objects they can name after themselves or their buddies and they love to be there for the great PR of a big ribbon-cutting ceremony with big crowds of voters and marching bands.....but there's no equivalent PR kick from maintinaing that big new thing over the following years and actually spending money maintaining stuff takes away cash that could be used on building more new stuff and more new ribbon-cutting ceremonies...
This is California. The politicians get great power from the drought. They formed agencies and committees and wrote laws and rules and regulations to control nearly every aspec of the lives of the citizens based on the drought. All the precipitation this winter has a number of them answering voter questions about relaxing these controls now that the drought has eased and the bureacrats are full of excuses for why the regulations are staying (even down in San Diego where it has emerged that the county was NEVER in drought even as it was subjected to increased water fees and restrictions on water useage).
If this dam fails, it will be a fantastic boon to the bureacrats and politicians who will use it as the excuse to keep all the rules, regulations, laws, bureaucracies, and rationing in place.
There's a reason Why Governor "moonbeam" Brown has been spending billions of dollars on his slowest-on-earth bullet train to nowhere while refusing to spend money maintaining the existing infrastructure like these dams.
Slashdot has been full of liberal/leftist posts for months about how California is such a rich state that it can leave the US and be one of the richest on Earth. California is so full of excess cash that it CHOOSES to spend BILLIONS of dollars per year on illegal aliens.
Of course, CA is totally run by the Democrats with super-majorities in the legislature and all state-wide offices in Democrat hands so much of this is bogus - they keep talking about California providing more money to the US than it consumes, but that's totally phoney accounting: Individual taxpayers in CA pay more to Washington than they get back, but the State as a whole is Trillions in the hole to state government workers' union pension promises. The Democrats running the state also refuse to actually tax the super-rich in any meaningful way since those super-rich (like the Google guys) are nearly all Democrats who donate to the Democrat party and candidates.
Trump should tell governor Brown that as long as he has so much money he [a] can spend it on illegal aliens (even now providing them taxpayer-funded lawyers to fight the feds on deportation) and [b] is not "soaking" Google and Apple (among the richest entities on Earth) he cannot have any federal money.
If you live within a "free market" then you get quantity discounts. It costs a certain amount to deliver any quantity of a thing to you, so as you consume more that basic cost is divided into more and if you consume enough, the vendors will compete for your business an innovate to come up with better/cheaper supplies and delivery methods.
If you live under and form of Marxism, then you get "progressive" price tables, and talk of conservation and "you fair share". These are all just forms of rationing and government control over aspects of your life. No effort to increase supplies or improve delivery will occur because politically-connected interests will oppose that and bureaucrats will not want to lose the control that artificial scarcity and rationing enable.
The left is firmly in control in CA, so we have water rationing, electricity rationing, and even carbon emissions rationing (including not only steeply increasing prices with more consumption but also different prices based on your income, thanks to scaled subsidies), none of which are going to fix anything since they're not actually designed to fix anything; They NEVER use the increeased funds from these higher prices to increase supply.
California is NOT sending ANY money to Washington DC
Individual taxpayers ARE sending their federal tax dollars to DC because they are US Citizens/legal residents. The state is not sending any membership fee to the feds, and the state has no authority to inject itself in between the taxpayer and Washington DC to steal those tax dollars. Should the state seceded from the nation, those taxpayers would still have to pay their taxes to the US Govt (as do Americans working in ANY foreign country) unless each of them also renounced his/her American citizenship, which 60% would not do. The assumption of the nutjobs is that all Californians would renounce thier American citizenship and then agree to a massive CA state income tax increase. The truth is that many Californians would take up arms and eliminate the leadership of California for treason against the Unites States given that many Californians are US Military vets who are armed and took an oath to defend the US against all enemies, foreign and domestic.
You guys who get your economics and legal education from idiots like Robert Reich and Paul Krugman are positively delusional. Eggheads who are wrong more often than they are right and who thus work at universities and left-wing bird cage liners are no substitute for reality and the actual plaent we actually live upon.
the science is settled.
your inability to grasp it doesnt change that.
nor did anything you stated prove or disprove anything.
and if youre going to link to hoover you might as well link to national enquirer, it has about the same level of scientific accuracy.
probably slightly higher.
The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
this is hte part where he starts playing his game where nothing you say will be good enough.
just ignore him,he's a professional troll
The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
no, you're hte one spouting bullshit unspported by the mountain of data.
you cite something real.
climate science in favor of AGW has reached the 2+2=4 stage: its so well grounded, so well established, it no longer carries the burder of proof.
proving simple shit over and over for shit trolls is a waste of time.
youre hte one with the claim that flies in the face of the mountain of evidence: you provide the citations.
otherwise fuck off.
The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
youre right its not symmetrical.
you are hte one with the extraordinary claim.
therefore the burden of proof is on you.
as for the "plenty of failed predicitons" have at it. name one.
we'll debunk if one by one as you cite sensationalized journalism (ie, not a scientist) or nonexistant claim as you make them.
the overwhelming majority of claims have in fact come true.
and you are full of shit.
The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
Davis's failed and corrupt party politics on the Democratic side resulted in a successful recall. Davis followed a long history of Democratic scum milking society dry with empty promises, massive wealth redistribution of the middle class, and open corruption. A non-politician was voted in and started trying to fix the mess. As President Trump is seeing, there is a constant sabotage effort from the Marxist left. Considering the efforts of the Alinskyites, a non-politician still did a decent job. Issues with giving Drivers licenses to illegals were pushed back, not put in by Brown. Issues of massive increases to vehicle registration were pushed back, implemented by Brown. The Democrats and Union cronies illegally campaigned against him and his policies (found illegal by the US Supreme Court).
But hey, it's always someone else's fault even when the Democrats wreak havoc. Your tactic is to lie, and keep repeating the lie relentlessly. Alinsky learned from Himmler, and you morons either get it or follow along with the goose step your party chants. What is hillarious is that you idiots actually believe chanting "down with Nazis and Fascists" defends your use of Nazi and Fascist tactics.
-The wise argue that there are few absolutes, the fool argues that there are no probabilities.
These are a dime-a-dozen. The Internet is full of such lists assembled
The first link just lists predictions. It doesn't actually provide any data showing the predictions were wrong.
The second link is talking about popular news articles form the 1970s....that were not about warming. In fact, the "we're heading into an ice age" prediction in the 1970s was a fringe position not backed by the majority of climate scientists. So, the exact opposite of what you claim.
And I'm not going to bother going through the rest of the google results when the top two are not remotely close to your claims.
Dr. David Viner, a scientist with the climatic research unit at the University of East Anglia, told the UK Independent in 2000 [archive.org]. Fail [express.co.uk].
“End of skiing” in Scotland.
"Ski" does not appear in those articles.
With the pace of global warming increasing, some climate change experts predict that the Scottish ski industry will cease to exist within 20 years.
It is now 2017, but snow is still plentiful in Scotland. Indeed, the 2014 was the snowiest since 1945
Hey look! You confused "weather" with "climate". That is an extremely common mistake made by those denying climate change. You should really learn the difference before attempting to discuss the issue.
Also, "no ski industry" does not mean "no snowfall". Having a skiing industry requires either making a lot of man-made snow or having a lot of natural snowfall in the right place, and consistently. You can not make a ski industry out of one year's snowfall, especially when that snowfall is not where your ski resort is. Unless you raise ticket prices to the point where man-made snow can do the job, but that apparently requires ticket prices too high to maintain the industry.
Amusingly, when your citations actually talk about the ski industry, they describe an industry in collapse because they do not consistently receive snow in the right places.....which would actually back climate change.
I made no claims requiring citations
Actually, you did. You made the claim that climate scientists are consistently wrong in their predictions.
And given the utterly abysmal quality of citations you have provided, you still need to provide those citations. And with your claim that they are always wrong, your inability to provide any citations is again rather odd.
That may be too onerous a requirement in the case of Climate Science — the experiments take many years, so any replication is difficult.
Replication in this case would be getting similar results using different measurement methods. For example, tree rings, ice cores, historical temperature data and sediment samples providing results that are consistent with each other.
A) I remember hearing nearly 30 years ago how rare it was for Europe to have a white Christmas. Now that it's rare for Europe to have a white Christmas, it MUST be AGW!!!!!!!J!KJ@L!J@!LK@JL!K@J!
B) Not all birds fly south, dumbass.
Continounce mon ami!
Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.