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Most Scientists 'Can't Replicate Studies By Their Peers' (bbc.com)

Science is facing a "reproducibility crisis" where more than two-thirds of researchers have tried and failed to reproduce another scientist's experiments, research suggests. From a report: This is frustrating clinicians and drug developers who want solid foundations of pre-clinical research to build upon. From his lab at the University of Virginia's Centre for Open Science, immunologist Dr Tim Errington runs The Reproducibility Project, which attempted to repeat the findings reported in five landmark cancer studies. "The idea here is to take a bunch of experiments and to try and do the exact same thing to see if we can get the same results." You could be forgiven for thinking that should be easy. Experiments are supposed to be replicable. The authors should have done it themselves before publication, and all you have to do is read the methods section in the paper and follow the instructions. Sadly nothing, it seems, could be further from the truth.

331 comments

  1. s/drug trials/climate change/g by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

    Change "drug trials" to "climate change", though, and watch the true believers react....

    1. Re:s/drug trials/climate change/g by evilRhino · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Drug trials are limited in scope because there are restrictions on the patents of the studied compounds, which greatly limits the capacity to replicate the trial. Multiple studies have been done on climate, which is more open access.

    2. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by reanjr · · Score: 5, Informative

      Many studies have been done on anthropic climate change, but almost no experiments.

    3. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Archangel+Michael · · Score: 0

      Its worst than that. Most of the "data" comes from a very limited set of instruments and is passed around as defacto "fact". Questioning the collection methods and the post collection data manipulation = Heresy!

      --
      Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
    4. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not heresy if the science is sound. Simply questioning isn't valid, though.

    5. Re:s/drug trials/climate change/g by Big+Hairy+Ian · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The purpose of peer review is to identify incorrect theories and throw them out. This article says an awful lot more about the state of research today than it does about peer review which is doing what it's supposed to be doing.

      --

      Build a Man a Fire, and He'll Be Warm for a Day. Set a Man on Fire, and He'll Be Warm for the Rest of His Life.

    6. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 5, Informative

      Many studies have been done on anthropic climate change, but almost no experiments.

      The infrared absorption of carbon dioxide is experimentally measured in the laboratory. And there is a vast amount of measured data on the earth's atmosphere and climate, from surface, atmospheric, and orbital probes, not to mention probes of other planets; and we acquire terabytes of additional data every year.
      The basics of Earth's energy balance are well understood, and they are understood, in part, because of this vast amount of experimental and observational data.

      --
      http://www.geoffreylandis.com
    7. Re:s/drug trials/climate change/g by Black+Parrot · · Score: 1

      The purpose of peer review is to identify incorrect theories and throw them out.

      Not even that much, really. You can't generally detect an incorrect theory in a paper you're reviewing.

      Basically peer review can only ensure that the authors have done their homework, are aware of all the other relevant literature, explain themselves clearly, thought of obvious problems and alternative explanations, and don't invoke any logical fallacies.

      In practice a lot of it gets dedicated to a grad student who can't even do that much.

      --
      Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
    8. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by gtall · · Score: 1

      Yeah, yer right, dumping gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere has absolutely no effect we could measure. Shame on us.

    9. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not heresy if the science is sound. Simply questioning isn't valid, though.

      You haven't been paying attention to the politics of climate change, have you?

    10. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      "Peer review" means "reviewed by a person with doctorate". Scientists are people, too, and they have even beliefs/bias. They throw very valid research because it contradicts their ideas.... and they also miss details that might be obvious to others (papers are reviewed by 2-3 reviewers only, maybe 4 if the review is inconclusive).

      So, no, peer review is not a magic bullet.

    11. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nothing is stopping you from deploying your own instruments, sunshine.

    12. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And in my experience, few bother to check the calibration of instruments and instead take the readings as gospel... a serious mistake.

    13. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Immerman · · Score: 1

      Name one study offering a credible alternative explanation for observed phenomena.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    14. Re:s/drug trials/climate change/g by JoeMerchant · · Score: 1

      I'd say that peer review is a misnomer - if you can't replicate the experiment, you're not a peer.

      Not saying that all peer reviewers should replicate the experiments before approving articles for publication, but I am saying that if they are truly incapable of replicating the experiment, then they have no place judging the fitness for publication.

      This would leave the "top labs" in the world "peerless" - and they could be published in separate "peerless" sections of respected publications - get their studies out faster, and encourage other labs to come up to speed in reproducing the experiments so as to both validate their results and bring up the capabilities of labs worldwide.

    15. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by pipingguy · · Score: 1

      "measured in the laboratory"

      What climate-related factors are *not* measured? Clouds? Water vapor? Convection?

    16. Re:s/drug trials/climate change/g by Oligonicella · · Score: 3, Informative

      This of course presumes the experiment **can** be replicated.

      As for "peerless", there have been researchers at top labs (Bell, for one) that have fabricated their research.

    17. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by nomadic · · Score: 1

      The same experiment has been done for 100 years, and consistently reproduces the same results. Take a sealed, transparent tank of air. Shine sunlight on it. Take the temperature. Increase the percentage of CO2 in the tank. Shine sunlight. Take the temperature. The CO2-richer air has a higher temperature.

    18. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by albacrankie · · Score: 1

      Name one study offering a credible alternative explanation for observed phenomena.

      What observed phenomena?

    19. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by lgw · · Score: 4, Insightful

      he infrared absorption of carbon dioxide is experimentally measured in the laboratory

      No one rational doubts this. That has never been what the climate change debate was about. But the atmosphere is not a bottle of air, or even a bottle of air and water (any modern meteorological model treats modeling he ocean at least as importantly as modeling the air). The atmosphere+hydrosphere is a complex, evolving system with many feedback mechanisms, both positive and negative.

      I mean, really, do you think a climate model is simply modeling a static stack of air with some CO2 in it? Really?

      The question is: quantitatively, what rate of human CO2 emission with create what effects, in detail. This is not the sort of science that lends itself to reproducible experiments, but that's fine, neither does astronomy or cosmology. It is, like any science, required to make falsifiable quantitative predictions.

      And, frankly, the best models aren't doing so well, giving about 2 sigmas of accuracy. If you generated hundreds of models at random, you'd expect a couple dozen to have 2 sigmas of accuracy. That doesn't mean the models are flawed in any fundamental way, but there's a big gap between "not fundamentally flawed" and "great, proven science".

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    20. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by sir-gold · · Score: 1

      Record high temps, record low temps. record rain, record drought.

      In other words, the weather is getting more extreme and less predictable. Our only options are 1) accept it, and build bigger reservoirs, flood canals, and levees. 2) try to fight back. or 3) ignore it and hope it goes away.

      Refusing to accept weather record data falls into the 3rd category, BTW

    21. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by danbert8 · · Score: 1

      That must be nice to know for people who live in sealed transparent tanks of air.

      --
      Yes it's an anecdote! Were you expecting original research in a Slashdot comment?
    22. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by greythax · · Score: 3, Insightful
      "Sir, the ship is sinking!"

      "Yes, but how FAST is it sinking?"

      "We're not entirely sure, but we know it is because we keep drilling holes."

      "Well, we better keep drilling until we know how fast, just to be safe."

    23. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by budgenator · · Score: 1

      Of course it has an effect, all of those CO2 starved plants on the planet are starting to flourish!

      --
      Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
    24. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by budgenator · · Score: 0

      The same experiment has been done for 100 years, and consistently reproduces the same results. Take a sealed, transparent tank of air. Shine sunlight on it. Take the temperature. Increase the percentage of CO2 in the tank. Shine sunlight. Take the temperature. The CO2-richer air has a higher temperature.

      That has never happened, even Al Gore and Bill Nye failed to replicate it.
      The simple fact is even at 100% CO2, the infra-red absorbance is too small to make a measurable temperature difference at the scale you are describing.

      --
      Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
    25. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by phantomfive · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Record high temps, record low temps. record rain, record drought.

      That's actually what you'd expect with a chaotic system built of multiple random variables. It would be unnatural for weather to always be the same.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    26. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Incidentally, if we just looked at the temperature increase from CO2, without feedbacks, then it is not enough to worry about. Positive feedbacks are necessary before the temperature change will be enough to cause problems.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    27. Re:s/drug trials/climate change/g by budgenator · · Score: 1

      The suspicion is not as much as others can't replicate, but that the even original researchers can't replicate; and it's not the same as the old "don't get your glassware too clean" in organic chemistry either.

      --
      Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
    28. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by lgw · · Score: 0

      Bad analogy. It's very expensive to emit less CO2. Humans will suffer from the reduced standard of living. What's the right trade off to minimize harm to people? That's the whole point of the debate. Dismissing people you disagree with without understanding what they're talking about is popular today, because it's easy, but it's not smart.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    29. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by JonnyCalcutta · · Score: 2

      No, that's the whole point of your debate. Sadly you are outshouted by the people who deny that its happening. I'm all for the debate you want to have.

    30. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 2

      Yet in this chaotic system, the record highs increasingly outweigh the record lows, suggesting an increasing upward trend.

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    31. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by lgw · · Score: 1

      Those people aren't the Slashdot crowd, though. There's way to much "shouting general talking points" on Slashdot these days, when we'd all be better served by reasonable debate.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    32. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by greythax · · Score: 2

      Calling something expensive doesn't make it less urgent. Humans will suffer (possibly) from the increased cost of building solar and wind plants (even though that will create a crap ton of jobs and reduce dependency on foreign energy sources.) But HUMANKIND will suffer for our shortsightedness if we delay indefinitely. And trust me, just because you don't know how soon, doesn't mean it won't be SOON. All in all, I think my point was salient. Already, in my life, glaciers here as long as humankind have just melted right a way. Assuming more adverse effects won't happen in your human lifetime is like standing in a storm shouting "It can't rain any more than it already has." You might want to meditate on that for a minute before you go around accusing people of being ignorant. Sometimes things are hard, that doesn't mean they aren't the right thing to do. You know there is a problem, put on your big boy breeches and help fix it.

    33. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by tbannist · · Score: 3, Informative

      Record high temps, record low temps. record rain, record drought.

      That's actually what you'd expect with a chaotic system built of multiple random variables. It would be unnatural for weather to always be the same.

      Actually it's not. It's a simple fact that in a stable system, as time goes on, there are fewer and fewer "record" events because each new record needs to be more extreme than all previously recorded events. Over time, record-breaking events decline significantly. So, an increase in record events is, by itself, evidence that the system is undergoing change.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    34. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by ravenshrike · · Score: 1

      Fighting back means mass production of carbon sequestration devices yet to be invented or large scale environmental manipulation. Horseshit like carbon credits is the climate change equivalent of pissing in the wind.

    35. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If it is a system, it behaves according to rules. Understanding the rules better makes it more predictable.

      Random inputs do not yield random outputs when they are processed systematically.

    36. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Namarrgon · · Score: 1

      You'd expect *occasional* records - and increasingly infrequently, as each new record would require an ever-more-unlikely combination of random variables, like flipping coins and getting a new record number of heads in a row.

      What we're actually seeing today is a steady progression of new records, each slightly exceeding the record set only a few years earlier - so commonly that people like yourself are starting to dismiss this situation as "expected". It is absolutely *not* expected from a normal Gaussian distribution of chaotic variables - unless you add a rising trend underneath. Then a whole stream new records is no longer ridiculously improbable, but inevitable.

      --
      Why would anyone engrave "Elbereth"?
    37. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Of course you are right, (we are both right), the question is how many events do you need for it to 'stabilize'? In some places we've only had good weather station coverage for less than a hundred years, so it really depends on the variance, and how many random variables are involved. Obviously with climate, there are quite a number of random variables.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    38. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by lgw · · Score: 1

      What I see in your post is "I don't care how many people are hurt, do what I say!" That's how you got Trump, just so you know. You can't dodge the question of minimizing harm to people, especially not by handwaving. Science or STFU.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    39. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      How improbable is it? I'm interested in your analysis. Unless you're saying that based on 'gut feeling' or hearsay.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    40. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by William+Baric · · Score: 1

      Sadly, you are outshouted by the people who deny that emitting less CO2 will also be bad for humanity. By the way, I live in Canada. I see winters becoming warmer each year. And you know what? That's a good thing for us! But that again is a debate we are not allowed to have.

    41. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by sir-gold · · Score: 1

      Carbon credits are garbage, I agree. It basically allows one company to pay another company to pollute less, in order to allow them to pollute more.

      That doesn't mean we can't mandate carbon scrubbers, catalytic converters and other devices to at least reduce the amount of crap we put in the air each day.

      This is where it gets political, because the companies who would have to install these devices don't want to pay for them, and would rather put that money towards convincing politicians that the problem doesn't exist.

    42. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by losfromla · · Score: 0

      So, what you see in a thoughtful, intelligently written post is your anger and fear reflected back at you. I'll simplify it for you since apparently reading comprehension is not a strength of yours.
      It will be tough to make a switch now but doing so will make it better and in the long run less painful.

      I think we got tRumpf due to the unethical and underhanded actions of both the DNC and the Clinton political machine. Had those not been in full effect, Bernie would have mopped the floor with the cheeto man-child in a general election.

      --
      Only I can judge you.
    43. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by lgw · · Score: 2

      It will be tough to make a switch now but doing so will make it better and in the long run less painful.

      How much of a switch? What's the benefit of the switch? What's the cost of the switch? No matter how frantically you wave your hands, you're not providing numbers.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    44. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by losfromla · · Score: 0

      I'm waving my hands frantically?
      You have a punctuation mark every six words, roughly. I have one about every 12 or so, therefore your writing comes off as much more frantic than mine.

      Not unexpectedly, even your signature indicates what a panicked, fearful state you live in.

      Take up meditation, yoga, tai-chi, anything to calm you down. Do you eat a lot of sugars and carbs and guzzle caffeine loaded drinks? Do you sleep less than your body needs? Those are some things that could be contributing to your current frenzied and panicked state. Oh, also watching Fox News, even network news in general could be making you think the world is much more threatening than it really is. Studies in fact, have shown that conservatives live in a much scarier world than liberals.

      --
      Only I can judge you.
    45. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by lgw · · Score: 1

      Are you unfamiliar with the phrase "hand waving", or just being deliberately obtuse?

      Science is about numerically accurate, falsifiable predictions. We need some of those in the Climate Change debate, but the science isn't there yet. Non-scientists like yourself, however, are happy to substitute hand waving (like a magician, hoping to distract the audience from the lack of substance).

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    46. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Namarrgon · · Score: 1

      Consider that the global average land+sea temperature for this month (February), averaged over the entire 20th century, was 12.1 C. In a chaotic system, one would expect a roughly equal probability of seeing a cooler temperature as a hotter one, individually or averaged, though the average of large numbers of readings are less likely to show outliers. Seasonal and other cyclical factors would skew temperatures one way for a while, then the other way, balancing out over time.

      For 2015, the globally-averaged temperature for February was 0.86 C higher than that 20th century average. If that was a single reading, or a local average, that wouldn't be at all noteworthy. Even averaged across the entire globe for the month, it was merely the second-highest February recorded, next to 1998. Similarly for land-only average temperatures, though with larger variations.

      But when you consider that 2015 was the 30th hotter-than-average February in a row, the odds shift dramatically. If there's a 50/50 chance that we would see a hotter-than-average February any given year, then there's 1 chance in 2^30 that we would get 30 hotter "heads" in a row - ridiculously improbable. There hasn't been a cooler-than-average February since 1985 - and February 2016 was even hotter, setting a new record at 1.21 C above the average. Clearly the global average temperature isn't stable, but is showing a long-term underlying rising trend, which makes the new highest-temperature-ever records not only more likely, but bound to happen eventually. (Incidentally, if you use yearly averages instead of just February, it's now been 38 years of above-average temperatures.)

      So the existence of a rising temperature trend is virtually certain. Whether it's anthropic or caused by a hitherto-undiscovered long-term natural cycle is a separate discussion, but the probability of the former is very high indeed.

      --
      Why would anyone engrave "Elbereth"?
    47. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by losfromla · · Score: 1

      The phrase when used is "hand waving", you didn't say "hand waving", thus I didn't catch that your goal was for me to react to "hand waving" so I went for the "frantic" accusation. How about if I had said "wave your hands in the air like you don't care"? Would you have caught that I was referring to your "hand waving"? Probably not. Lesson to you here lgw is, use phrases in their familiar form not some new random arrangement just because you were feeling rushed and afraid.

      I was responding to the frantic nature of your emails, the visceral panic that transcends the words you write. Did you know that most of human communication is non-verbal? Probably not, being that your faux news echo chamber doesn't delve into topics that don't drive FUD, oh but those girl "news"-casters are hot so they must be right. Will you be hot because you watch and agree with them? No, but the aspiration of social proofing with such hotness keeps you on the treadmill.

      Do you really feel you know me enough to judge me to be a non-scientist? The problem with the climate change debate is that the data is overwhelming and the models sketchy regarding long term predictions. The thing with models is that they are simplifications of reality by nature. Has Breitbart or "Faux News" invested the necessary effort to come up with a model that uses all available data which states that we can look forward to a rosy future? What would you, being the brilliant armchair scientist that you are propose we do other than make predictions and use the best available models?

      Any thoughts on my health advice to you? I shouldn't care since we barely know each other but, I think that a healthier population is less expensive for society and also generally more compassionate.

      --
      Only I can judge you.
    48. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by greythax · · Score: 1

      What I see in your post is "I don't care how many people are hurt, do what I say!" Nah man, you're just butthurt. Go back and read it again when you calm down. It'll make more sense.

    49. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Archangel+Michael · · Score: 1

      Unexpected extreme low temperatures = weather
      Unexpected extreme high temperatures = AGW

      Duh!

      Oh, and Failing Dam Spillways is caused by AGW, and not by the government who was supposed to be doing maintenance but failed. Yes, Gov Brown said that the failed spillway was caused by Global Warming.

      And now, you know why a lot of people do not take it seriously.

      --
      Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
    50. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Archangel+Michael · · Score: 1

      Carbon Credits are how elitist liberals get around their overly large carbon footprints. "I bought Carbon Offsets from myself"

      --
      Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
    51. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Archangel+Michael · · Score: 1

      "records" in modern human terms. But failure to mention "other" records like the hurricane lull in the Atlantic is quickly forgotten. After all, "MORE EXTREME WEATHER" should have produced more and more extreme hurricanes .... but those simply haven't appeared.

      I have no doubt carbon is increasing, I have plenty of doubt that it is actually "bad" for the planet. It might be bad for humans, but I am pretty sure plants love it. More plants = more life.

      --
      Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
    52. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      On the contrary, we are living in an experiment right now and the results will be "conclusive".

    53. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Namarrgon · · Score: 1

      Shifting the goal posts, are we? I'm pretty sure there's no falsified predictions about hurricanes in the Atlantic specifically before 2020, so I'm not sure what you're getting at. As we get further into the red zone, there's some evidence to suggest that hurricane intensity might increase, though frequency is less certain.

      Maybe you should skim through the IPCC AR5 WGII impacts summary, to see what we're actually expecting. There's much more to be concerned about than just hurricanes, and the risks and damages far outweigh any small plant growth benefit we might expect from boosted CO2 (which is discussed in Chapter 7 - studies suggest that food production will see a net negative effect).

      --
      Why would anyone engrave "Elbereth"?
    54. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Carbon credits are one of at least a dozen ways global warming fanaticism affects the same area of the brain as religious cults. It is a way of buying forgiveness of sins from the Church allowing one to sin with impunity while being purer than non-believers.

    55. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by dougdonovan · · Score: 1

      frustration is a true sign of continued optomism. never give up. you will figure it out, now, get back on the horse and ride.

    56. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Salgak1 · · Score: 1

      Indeed. Carbon Credits are, effectively, the return of the selling of Indulgences. It's just the Church of Gaia, not the Catholic Church

    57. Re:s/drug trials/climate change/g by godrik · · Score: 1

      Well, there is a misconception that "it is published therefore it has been thoroughly reviewed". That is not what the reviewing part of the publication process does. Peer reviewing actually start at publication when other lab will try to reproduce the result or incorporate parts of the work into their own work. And at that point you will see whether it is correct or not.

      You never have complete experimental protocols today. Because it is not often clear what matters and what doesn't. Also these protocols can be very complex to write. So you provide only a high level view of the experiments. And when others will try to reproduce it, they will use their own setting. If they can reproduce it as is, perfect. If they can't, they'll start trying to narrow down the important parameters. And we will get a better understanding of the phenomenon as a result.

    58. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Fortunately for you, burning straw men is carbon-neutral.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    59. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Carbon credits or carbon taxes are a way to use the free market to reduce carbon dioxide emissions efficiently.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    60. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      That must be nice to know for people who live in sealed transparent tanks of air.

      You live where the land/sea/air is not a closed system with regard to chemical constituents? Wow! Tell us about it.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    61. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Record high temps, record low temps. record rain, record drought.

      That's actually what you'd expect with a chaotic system built of multiple random variables. It would be unnatural for weather to always be the same.

      It's pretty easy to demonstrate mathematically what you should also see intuitively, i.e. that in a stable process which is not "moving" (where the mean and variation do not change over time, which is what the "no climate change" folks propose), that the frequency of any sort of record should fall off as you accumulate more data. For instance, the first year every measurement will be a record, the second year each has a 50% chance of being the record, the third year every measurement has a 1/3 chance, etc. So the fact that we're seeing a high frequency of records now is enough to demonstrate a change in the basic underlying process.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    62. Re:s/drug trials/climate change/g by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Change "drug trials" to "climate change", though, and watch the true believers react....

      You don't get to cite "lack of reproducibility" as a criticism of fields of science where it is physically impossible to reproduce an experiment. For instance, even those who are skeptical of the big bang theory do not argue that it has never been reproduced independently. Change origin of the universe to climate change, however, and watch the false skeptics react.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    63. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Many studies have been done on anthropic climate change, but almost no experiments.

      As in the old joke about the final exam for the cosmology course, which states "Construct a functional universe. You will find the materials you need in a box under your desk"

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    64. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      "measured in the laboratory" What climate-related factors are *not* measured? Clouds? Water vapor? Convection?

      These are, however, measured in the actual environment. Along with the variables from the lab experiments. https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibl... for example.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    65. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      he infrared absorption of carbon dioxide is experimentally measured in the laboratory

      No one rational doubts this. That has never been what the climate change debate was about. But the atmosphere is not a bottle of air, or even a bottle of air and water (any modern meteorological model treats modeling he ocean at least as importantly as modeling the air). The atmosphere+hydrosphere is a complex, evolving system with many feedback mechanisms, both positive and negative.

      I mean, really, do you think a climate model is simply modeling a static stack of air with some CO2 in it? Really?

      The question is: quantitatively, what rate of human CO2 emission with create what effects, in detail. This is not the sort of science that lends itself to reproducible experiments, but that's fine, neither does astronomy or cosmology. It is, like any science, required to make falsifiable quantitative predictions.

      And, frankly, the best models aren't doing so well, giving about 2 sigmas of accuracy. If you generated hundreds of models at random, you'd expect a couple dozen to have 2 sigmas of accuracy. That doesn't mean the models are flawed in any fundamental way, but there's a big gap between "not fundamentally flawed" and "great, proven science".

      But even when you have a "complex, evolving system with many feedback mechanisms, both positive and negative," the default assumption is not that underlying well established physical principles are therefore negated; nobody argues that the fact that each hemisphere of the earth gets warmer during the daytime and colder at night is not due to the effect of IR from the sun, because the laboratory observations of IR heating things up in the lab are not relevant to a "complex, evolving system with many feedback mechanisms, both positive and negative," in the wild. Nobody argues that the fatal effects of arsenic in vivo are not related to the effect seen in vitro, because the human body is a "complex, evolving system with many feedback mechanisms, both positive and negative."
      If you want to argue that a set of well established mechanisms consistent with a particular result do not operate in a particular system, you need to specify why they do not operate, and also what, then is responsible for that result, rather than just a shrug and "It might not work that way, it might be something completely different" with no evidence as to 1) what prevents the CO2 absorbance of IR from operating, and 2) what is therefore causing the warming.
      In fact, the entire collection of climate change "skeptics" are at this point only united in a belief that something is preventing the CO2 absorbance of IR from operating, with a set of hypotheses varying from clouds to the will of God, and that something is causing the warming, with a set of hypotheses varying from cosmic rays to a hoax by the Chinese. The only coherent theory that has any relationship to reality at all is anthropogenic carbon dioxide from fossil fuels.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    66. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Bad analogy. It's very expensive to emit less CO2. Humans will suffer from the reduced standard of living. What's the right trade off to minimize harm to people? That's the whole point of the debate. Dismissing people you disagree with without understanding what they're talking about is popular today, because it's easy, but it's not smart.

      The same arguments were used against slavery, for instance, and yet we managed to struggle along without it. The track record of predictions from economics is not the kind of thing that leads one to believe that estimates of economic destruction from emitting less CO2 are more reliable than the estimates of climate change from continued production of CO2 we get from typical methods of estimation from physics.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    67. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Name one study offering a credible alternative explanation for observed phenomena.

      What observed phenomena?

      How about the higher average temperature of the surface of the earth as compared to that of the moon, despite being exposed to the same insolation? Which happens to be pretty much what was estimated by Svante Arrhenius in the 19th century from his studies of IR absorption by CO2, and led him to predict that further increases in CO2 as a result of human industry would lead to global warming?

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    68. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Yet in this chaotic system, the record highs increasingly outweigh the record lows, suggesting an increasing upward trend.

      So, we've moved on from debating whether the change in temperature is caused by anthropogenic CO2 or not, to discussing whether there is any change in temperature at all, really. Our president says it's a hoax by the Chinese, who are we to disagree with someone of that stature?
      This is why it's futile for us to argue with climate change "skeptics". As long as skeptic1 says "there is no actual warming in reality" and skeptic2 says "nobody denies that the climate is changing, just whether humans are responsible" or "nobody denies that the climate is changing, just how harmful it will be", and both nod their heads in agreement, it's clear that logic is not a winning strategy.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    69. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      the second year each has a 50% chance of being the record, the third year every measurement has a 1/3 chance, etc.

      No lol, get a book on probability, I recommend this one.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    70. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Zero records have been set in recent time. This dishonesty is bothersome and I am not a denier. The planet has been much warmer and colder in the past. Stop the lies.

    71. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I am not a denier or even a skeptic. However, there are exactly zero records being set, currently or in recent history.

    72. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      I have no idea what you are talking about.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    73. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But, it is the scientifically agreed way to handle the matter. Just because your knowledge of science is limited...

    74. Re:s/drug trials/climate change/g by Methadras · · Score: 1

      The state of research today is to write garbage to acquire federal grants.

    75. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      That's not very good mathematical analysis, but it's a good intuitive explanation.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    76. Re: s/drug trials/climate change/g by danbert8 · · Score: 1

      It's called earth? Maybe you missed the physics lessons where the atmosphere is bleeding off into space at a certain rate, but gas emissions from within the earth tend to keep the atmosphere is a semi-constant state of pressure and composition?

      --
      Yes it's an anecdote! Were you expecting original research in a Slashdot comment?
  2. Fake science/sloppy science by dave3548 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If you can't reproduce it, it's either fake or you were just being sloppy. Either way, it's no wonder ordinary civilians have doubts.

    1. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

      If you can't reproduce it, it's either fake or you were just being sloppy. Either way, it's no wonder ordinary civilians have doubts.

      Or it took years to perfect the experiment technique. It took me 2.5 years to get my injury model and staining protocol optimized for my PhD research. A fair amount of success comes down to technique, not the written protocol.

    2. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by borcharc · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Then why not describe the novel techniques you developed to complete the research in the paper? Any process that is claimed to require special abilities is actually one the needs training.

    3. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Or the outcome was affected by random variability. That doesn't mean it was "fake" or "sloppy" science. It just means that science is hard, because there are so many variables that affect everything we see or do.

      Based on your comment, I'm not convinced you're really qualified to comment on this, although I suppose you are qualified to give us some insight into the attitudes and beliefs of "ordinary civilians."

    4. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Baron_Yam · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I have to disagree. To me, "a fair amount of success comes down to technique, not the written protocol" means you're not documenting your protocol adequately.

      It would certainly be fair to say that some manual actions could take a lot of practice before the experimenter would likely be skilled enough to perform them, but there shouldn't be anything missing from the protocol documentation that someone attempting to reproduce the results would have to learn from scratch.

      Excepting well-established standard practices of the field, of course. You don't have to teach from kindergarten up to post-grad.

      I'm no bio researcher, but I am an IT guy and we could fill a library with books on substandard documentation making it difficult for others to follow in our footsteps.

    5. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Thud457 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      This pretty sums up my experiences reproducing experiments in the lab : ob. Electron Band Structure In Germanium, My Ass

      --

      the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

    6. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by ranton · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If you can't reproduce it, it's either fake or you were just being sloppy. Either way, it's no wonder ordinary civilians have doubts.

      Or perhaps this is the reason why you need to build a consensus among many scientists with similar results before you put much validity in any cutting edge research. All research is going to include assumptions, specialized techniques, biases, random variability of data, and many other factors which can reduce the validity of its conclusions.

      Your comment reeks of a double standard where if scientists cannot come to a consensus they are being fake or sloppy, but if they point out an overwhelming consensus they are not being scientific because a consensus shouldn't matter.

      --
      -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
    7. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by sjames · · Score: 5, Insightful

      If it's not a standard protocol, why isn't it documented?

    8. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you can't reproduce it, it's either fake or you were just being sloppy. Either way, it's no wonder ordinary civilians have doubts.

      Wrong, technically speaking all experiments of reasonable complexity have a sensitive dependance on initial condition. To expect the exact same results for the exact same inputs in a universe such as ours is a fools errand. rather one should be able to spot similar trends within the differing group of results. That is how the scientific method works. I don't forgive people who should know this when they have reached positions of power. (Looking at you congress critters in both the federal and state level! Looking directly at you President Trump!)

    9. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      +1 Funny +1 Interesting AAAA++ would read again

    10. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Dthief · · Score: 4, Interesting

      sometimes thats done purposefully so that you can get to the next paper before the other person. /p not a good system but I know plenty of researchers who put in enough to explain what they did, but not enough so you could reproduce it without a bit of effort/research yourself. /p definitely not the ideal, but people care about getting the next paper first so they can advance their career. publish or perish

      --
      www.RacquetUp.org - Helping Detroit Youth
    11. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Salgak1 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      . . . or that an unknown and unrecognized variable is at play.

      Mind you, this goes back 40 years, but in my undergrad days, we were required to do a needle powder mount of a ground mineral, and use it in an x-ray diffractometry device. in order to identify the mineral by diffraction patterns.

      The year my class did it, we were **all** off by about 5-6% from the reference shots, made years earlier (the sample sources remained the same). Turns out the manufacturer of the adhesive we used for the powder mounts (it was office-type rubber cement) had undergone a minor formula change, they had a new source of one ingredient, which had some metal dust contamination.

      We had students doing the same experiment for 20 years previously, used identical techniques, and we STILL got different results. And we wouldn't have figured it out, if one of the TAs recalled that she had to get a new jar of rubber cement, the old one had solidified. . . . and it still took comparative chemical analyses of two different needle mounts of the same sample, but different years, to identify the difference.

    12. Re: Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you cant reliably predict the outcome, you haven't done science. Prediction is a required part of a scientific theory.

    13. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Dissenter · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I suppose that's a key element to the issue this article is discussing. If only the standard methods are in the publication and some novel augmentation of a process is necessary to produce those results, there is missing data and it could not be reproduced. Too many people are anxious to publish simply because it is part of their job to do so, but if some novel component is being persued through patent or other non-disclosed intellectual property, the publication should probably be either post-poned or not submitted. It's an odd catch 22 for folks in this area of research. I tend to agree that publishing something incomplete, however, simply extends ignorance rather than contributing to the education of your peers.

      --

      Dissenter
      "There is no knowledge that is not power."

    14. Re: Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Science Publication Is Hopelessly Compromised, Say Journal Editors

      http://acsh.org/news/2015/05/19/science-publication-is-hopelessly-compromised-say-journal-editors

      âoeThe case against science is straightforward: much of the scientific literature, perhaps half, may simply be untrue. Afflicted by studies with small sample sizes, tiny effects, invalid exploratory analyses, and flagrant conflicts of interest, together with an obsession for pursuing fashionable trends of dubious importance, science has taken a turn towards darkness.â

      "The mistake, of course, is to have thought that peer review was any more than a crude means of discovering the acceptability â" not the validity â" of a new finding. Editors and scientists alike insist on the pivotal importance of peer review. We portray peer review to the public as a quasi-sacred process that helps to make science our most objective truth teller. But we know that the system of peer review is biased, unjust, unaccountable, incomplete, easily fixed, often insulting, usually ignorant, occasionally foolish, and frequently wrong."

      Dr. Richard Horton
      Current editor-in-chief of
      Lancet Medical Journal

      âoeIt is simply no longer possible to believe much of the clinical research that is published, or to rely on the judgment of trusted physicians or authoritative medical guidelines. I take no pleasure in this conclusion, which I reached slowly and reluctantly over my two decades as an editor of the New England Journal of Medicineâ

      Dr. Marcia Angell
      Physician
      Longtime Editor in Chief of
      The New England Medical Journal

    15. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by pipingguy · · Score: 1

      "If the code was hard to write it should be hard to understand!"

    16. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by tburkhol · · Score: 1

      Then why not describe the novel techniques you developed to complete the research in the paper? Any process that is claimed to require special abilities is actually one the needs training.

      Because no one cares. The funding model for science in the US encourages each lab to find a "niche," an approach or an experimental model unique to that lab, defended by a barrier of custom-fabricated apparatus or years-long technique development. No other lab can afford the loss of productivity associated with that kind of investment, to say nothing of the direct expense.

      This is also the reason it's hard to take the reproducibility project very seriously: if you're engaged in a project whose thesis is that many experiments are not reproducible, and you're not getting the same results as a subject paper, what's your interpretation? It could be that the original paper was a statisitical fluke; It could be that you need another six months practicing the technique to get it right.

    17. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by wisnoskij · · Score: 1

      How many studies? If a published peer reviewed study states a 95% confidence in the results, but has a 60% chance of being wrong, on average, how many studies must be conducted before we have significant evidence? If we have no tools in which to measure the confidence of an individual study, how do you suggest we come up with the confidence in an aggregate of studies?

      A Bogosort will eventually get to the right answer, because it has a way of measuring the correctness of an answer. But without any method of judging an answer we have no method at all. If most studies are wrong, then the consensus is guaranteed to be wrong, than the collected aggregate of a group of studies is guaranteed to be wrong..

      --
      Troll is not a replacement for I disagree.
    18. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Your comment reeks of a double standard where if scientists cannot come to a consensus they are being fake or sloppy, but if they point out an overwhelming consensus they are not being scientific because a consensus shouldn't matter.

      I think you were being a bit unfair. I saw none of that in his comment. In fact - all I saw were statements regarding an individuals ability to replicate.

      With this perspective in mind, reread his post and you'll see that his point is simply that - if you cannot reproduce it - it is either fake or you were being sloppily while describing your findings/trying to confirm your findings/the findings of others. This is easily observable and shouldn't be too hard to understand, unless you come into the conversation with preconceived notions - and we all know how valuable a hypothesis is when compared to a theory ;)

    19. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Dread_ed · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Exactly right. If it is not reproducible, it is not "Science," period.

      If, as others have written, your experiment is so finely predicated on the experimental set-up (using certain equipment, preparing samples or data in a certain way, etc.) then you need to document that so specifically that anyone can repeat it. Why, you ask, with an dumbfounded and incredulous look on your face? Because you could be introducing very specific bias in the way you set up your experiment. If it only works when you do it *just like this,* maybe the reason is that the experimental result is a direct consequence of your set-up and not an actual measurement of naturally occurring phenomena. I like to call it "measuring your equipment."

      If you cannot, through your extensive documentation, re-create the experiment in another lab with completely different humans what you have published is essentially science fiction.

      --
      When the only tool you have is a claw hammer every problem starts to look like the back of someone's skull.
    20. Re: Fake science/sloppy science by DivineKnight · · Score: 1

      Hush. The most important part of 'Science' these days is that you have a consensus.

    21. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Dread_ed · · Score: 1

      What a fucking GEM!!!! You had me at:

      Abstract: The exponential dependence of resistivity on temperature in germanium is found to be a great big lie. My careful theoretical modeling and painstaking experimentation reveal 1) that my equipment is crap, as are all the available texts on the subject and 2) that this whole exercise was a complete waste of my time.

      And kept delivering right through to the end! Thank you sir!

      Also:

      The diagram on the right side labeled: Fig. 1: Check this shit out.

      Awesome!!

      --
      When the only tool you have is a claw hammer every problem starts to look like the back of someone's skull.
    22. Re: Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Says an AC who probably flunked out of community college...

    23. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Dread_ed · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Woah, I am confused by what you just wrote.

      You seem to be saying that if a bunch of scientists agree that *this* (whatever *this* is) is the way it is, but none of the experiments that prove that *this* is the way it is are reproducible, then we should just go with the consensus?

      Soooo, Galileo had some experiments he could back up, but the other scientists at the time had a consensus view of the cosmos. Their results were not reproducible, his were. You seem to be arguing for heliocentrism based on consensus.

      Essentially, your introduction of the concept of consensus based on results with a total lack of any comments on how reproducible those results are leaves me wondering just what you think the scientific method is predicated on.

      I don't care how "cutting edge" the research is. If it can be successfully reproduced and is based on sound principles I would consider it first before any "consensus" based on what a bunch of people think but can't back up with reproducible results.

      --
      When the only tool you have is a claw hammer every problem starts to look like the back of someone's skull.
    24. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It would certainly be fair to say that some manual actions could take a lot of practice before the experimenter would likely be skilled enough to perform them, but there shouldn't be anything missing from the protocol documentation that someone attempting to reproduce the results would have to learn from scratch.

      I work with scientific data for a living. One of the things we do is shot a laser range finder from an airplane. I don't remember how many times, someone has insisted we give them the raw data, because it is just simple geometry and we certainly couldn't handle doing it as well as they do. Fine. We give them the raw data (this was before we could put everything online). Weeks later we get a panicked email complaining that the position (GPS), orientation (inertial instrument) and laser range were not measured at the same time, so it is impossible to combine them. Interpolation is tricky, but not that hard. We had someone brag on stage at a conference that he'd found a multi second error in our measurements. We'd told him which instruments used UTC time and which used GPS time. There are things we don't have room to mention in a paper.

    25. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by TheDarkMaster · · Score: 1

      Your results on the graph are very, very funny :-D

      --
      Religion: The greatest weapon of mass destruction of all time
    26. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by CharlieG · · Score: 1

      The problem is, there is often consensus without duplication, or actual peer review. "If X says it is so, then I agree". The RIGHT answer is "I don't know, but X says it is so"
      Consensus without duplication of experiment, or at LEAST running your OWN models on the other person's RAW data (if it is too hard to duplicate the data) is herd following

      --
      -- 73 de KG2V For the Children - RKBA! "You are what you do when it counts" - the Masso
    27. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Part of the problem is the sheer complexity of most experiments combined with the publication model that enforces too-short papers. Good luck trying to squeeze 20 pages of pedantic tiny details into 2 pages of experimental description.

    28. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because no one cares.

      That's a big problem, as the model you just described for science workmanship closely mimics how the centers of knowledge - a.k.a. churches and monasteries - worked in medieval times. Do we really want to return to an age where competing scientific institutions are denouncing others as heretics, a la https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_affair ?

      Papers describing experiments that cannot be replicated should not get published, ever. (Add this to the long list of issues facing science and academia in general due to how science is funded and prioritized in the US.)

      Having said that, given the state of science education and prioritization in the US today, I'm not holding my breath for a good solution anytime soon.

    29. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Soooo, Galileo had some experiments he could back up, but the other scientists at the time had a consensus view of the cosmos. Their results were not reproducible, his were. You seem to be arguing for heliocentrism based on consensus.

      You have it in reverse. In fact, the heliocentric models (starting with Nicolaus Copernicus) had problems with being reproducible, while the geocentric models, being refined over 1500 years since Ptolemy and having all the correcting cycles and epicycles finely tuned, were astonishingly correct. They just had some problems with incorporating the Iovian moons. Johannes Kepler improved the quality of the heliocentric model with Kepler's Laws, but still, the geocentric model was better. It took until the turn of the 18th century and the genius of Isaac Newton to get the heliocentric model on par, and now it could shine in its simplicity and finally, scientists and navigators were able to abandon the geocentric models.

    30. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      To expect the exact same results for the exact same inputs in a universe such as ours is a fools errand. rather one should be able to spot similar trends within the differing group of results. That is how the scientific method works.

      No, but I expect that the results I obtain are reasonably within the statistical bounds of the original hypotheses, analyses, and conclusions. What use is the original science if I can't even replicate the original experiment within those statistical bounds? Is it even fair to call it science, then?

    31. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sometimes it's also:
      * Sloppiness in documentation (the experiment might have been rigorous, but the paper didn't detail it all.)
      * Random chance. If we have a p=0.1 result say (a rather bad figure), there's a 10% chance the result happened by chance. p=0.05? 5% chance. This in itself isn't that bad (it's very hard to be 100% certain) - except that researchers that don't get results? They do nothing with the data. Generally, only results that actually are statistically significant are published -- so if the experiment is done 10 times across the world, but the one time of those ten it works by chance, and the other nine times aren't published because they didn't work, we end up with papers being published more by chance.

      To combat the latter, you should read Journal of Articles in Support of the Null Hypothesis, which tries to be a journal of articles where there were no statistically significant differences from the 'nothing happened' result.

    32. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I wonder how you reproduce the discovery of Penicillin. Or was it not science?

    33. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by danbert8 · · Score: 1

      Kind of like the science fair project I judged one time. It concluded that Elmer's glue was the same strength as Gorilla glue (and a few other glues). Looking at the experiments I informed the middle school student that their study setup sadly had determined the tensile strength of popsicle sticks, not the shear strength of glue. You also have to make sure your experiment end point isn't influenced by limited equipment or testing setup.

      --
      Yes it's an anecdote! Were you expecting original research in a Slashdot comment?
    34. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by colin_faber · · Score: 1

      Science is not about consensus building. What you're describing is a political process not a scientific process.

    35. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I had to model a chemical reaction in chemistry class, and then perform it in the lab. My results matched the model *exactly*. I was so proud of myself.

      Then the lab teacher told me my model was wrong. Of course my results were wrong, too.

      Oh well.

    36. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by budgenator · · Score: 1

      If you haven't described a technique so that "someone skilled in the arts" can understand it, your patent protection maybe voided.

      --
      Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
    37. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "We had students doing the same experiment for 20 years previously, used identical techniques"

      No, they didn't. As you noted they changed a variable (the rubber cement) and didn't account for it. That's called lack of controls. Its akin to what those idiots did when disposing of nuclear waste out in New Mexico (though of course with much less dire consequences), swamping out clay kitty litter for organic kitty litter that resulted in a reaction which exploded a barrel of highly radioactive waste.

    38. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous+Cow+Ward · · Score: 1

      If *someone else* can't replicate it, then they might be doing it differently than you were, even if they think it's the same way because journals don't give you enough space to actually explain what you did in a lot of detail.

      --
      Examine even your most deeply held beliefs. Nobody is always right.
    39. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous+Cow+Ward · · Score: 2

      Because no one cares. The funding model for science in the US encourages each lab to find a "niche," an approach or an experimental model unique to that lab, defended by a barrier of custom-fabricated apparatus or years-long technique development. No other lab can afford the loss of productivity associated with that kind of investment, to say nothing of the direct expense.

      In my US-based institution - and, indeed, my field - this is not true. Labs do specialize, but there is no equipment so specialized that nobody else can do it, and the various government funding sources mandate that we share our models with other labs who are interested.

      --
      Examine even your most deeply held beliefs. Nobody is always right.
    40. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous+Cow+Ward · · Score: 1

      I agree, documentation of protocols needs to be improved; however, it's hard to document everything you did for a paper when the journal doesn't give you very many words at all to actually explain what you did, and many don't support video sections for online papers.

      --
      Examine even your most deeply held beliefs. Nobody is always right.
    41. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by The+Grim+Reefer · · Score: 1

      Thank you for that.

    42. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by ranton · · Score: 1

      You seem to be saying that if a bunch of scientists agree that *this* (whatever *this* is) is the way it is, but none of the experiments that prove that *this* is the way it is are reproducible, then we should just go with the consensus?

      No one is saying none of the experiments are reproducible. This article said about 70% of studies could not be reproduced. That means about 30% of them can.

      Lets say you have 1000 papers and 950 of them come to the same conclusion (95% consensus). Lets say 665 of the consensus papers are the result of group think and only 285 are reproducible. On the flip side its just as likely that 35 of the "maverick" research papers are just as biased and only 15 are reproducible. None of this changes that 95% of the reproducible papers agree.

      The reason consensus is so important is you can never trust any single research paper. Or any group of research papers written by colleagues. If you want to build confidence in controversial results it takes a diverse group of researchers to come to similar conclusions.

      --
      -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
    43. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by ranton · · Score: 1

      Science is not about consensus building. What you're describing is a political process not a scientific process.

      True, but that could be said about any application of scientific conclusions. While it may not be part of the scientific process, there needs to be a way for scientists to gain funding or the public to create policy based on scientific results. That is when consensus comes in.

      --
      -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
    44. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Salgak1 · · Score: 1

      Techniques are not materials. We only found out about the change of ingredient vendor AFTER the Chemistry Department found traces of metallic aluminum in the cement. We then queried the producer of the cement, and they told us that, based on the lot number on the jar, that was with the new ingredient vendor.

      20+ years, same brand of rubber cement, new jar every year or two.

    45. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by ranton · · Score: 1

      Consensus without duplication of experiment, or at LEAST running your OWN models on the other person's RAW data (if it is too hard to duplicate the data) is herd following

      If the consensus comes from independent experiments with independent data coming to similar conclusions, it arguably has more validity than the replication of a single study with the same potentially flawed data and procedures in place.

      --
      -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
    46. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by elgatozorbas · · Score: 3, Funny

      we could fill a library with books on substandard documentation

      There is some irony in there somewhere...

    47. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So is what you're saying is that the Reproducibility Project's study isn't reproducible?

      Pot meet kettle. XD

      I conducted a study that showed that POTUS had the largest inauguration crowd size of all time. ("Believe me!")
      My methodology is proprietary and depends on prohibitively expensive equipment, but I'm still going to publish. 'Cause: "Why the fuck not?"

      Voted for Donald Trump BTW. Operation "Fatalist Nihilism" is going exactly according to plan. Lol
      Would any of you Roman's like to buy some fire insurance? LMAO

      Quotes of the day:
      "I would beg the wise and learned fathers (of the church) to consider with all diligence the difference which exists between matters of mere opinion and matters of demonstration."
      -Galileo
      "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts."
      -Daniel Patrick Moynihan
      “I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character,"
      -Melania Trump
      "I never cut class. I loved getting A’s, I liked being smart. I liked being on time. I thought being smart is cooler than anything in the world."
      -Bernie Sanders
      "We are going to stay in the campaign until the convention in July."
      -Michelle Obama
      "Buy my scarehookers! ...SUCKERS!"
      -P.T. Barnum
      "I enjoy tennis, Pilates. I read magazines and love fashion."
      -Martin Luther King Jr.

    48. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by ranton · · Score: 1

      I think you were being a bit unfair. I saw none of that in his comment. In fact - all I saw were statements regarding an individuals ability to replicate.

      Either way, it's no wonder ordinary civilians have doubts.

      It's obvious this sentence is a political attack on scientific conclusions many people choose not to believe. That is why I only said the post smells politically partisan, since he only used innuendo instead of direct statements.

      --
      -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
    49. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by epine · · Score: 1

      If you can't reproduce it, it's either fake or you were just being sloppy. Either way, it's no wonder ordinary civilians have doubts.

      As I type, that remark is presently moderated +5. Huston, we have an insightfulness crisis.

      Materials

      • Willing undergraduates, fished at random (more or less) from the local time and place and cultural zeitgeist.
      • Neutral time and place (try to avoid scheduling tests around 9/11 or 11/9, as these dates have strong emotionally charged associations).

      "Just" sloppy, you say? Because any group of 50 undergraduates is as close to the Platonic ideal as any group of 50 trillion electrons?

      I've monitoring carefully for the past year. I'm pretty sure there's no word in the English language that precedes a sloppy thought more reliably than that potent little trigger word "just".

      Good night, sleep tight, loony dimsight.

    50. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by ranton · · Score: 1

      If a published peer reviewed study states a 95% confidence in the results, but has a 60% chance of being wrong, on average, how many studies must be conducted before we have significant evidence?

      Okay, lets say you have two independent papers which both come to the same conclusion. If they both independently have a 60% chance of being wrong, they only have a 36% chance of both being wrong. If you take 10 independent papers with 9 of them agreeing, it is far more likely that the 1 outlier is wrong than the 9 other papers, regardless of the reproducibility failure rate of each individual paper.

      If most studies are wrong, then the consensus is guaranteed to be wrong,

      No, if most studies are wrong, strong consensus is still very likely to be correct. Each incorrect paper just means that is one less piece of evidence that the consensus is correct; it doesn't provide evidence for the opposite conclusion. So if 95% of papers agree, you can easily throw out 70% of them and still have strong confidence in the consensus. Remember you can probably also throw out 70% of the papers which disagree, making the overall consensus percentage the same.

      To put it into a car analogy, lets say you come up with 95 reasons to choose Car A and 5 reasons to choose Car B, and are therefore easily going to choose Car A. I then tell you 60 of your reasons to choose Car A are silly and 3 of your reasons to choose Car B are silly, but don't tell you which ones. Does this really impact your decision to choose Car A now that it is only 35 vs 2 instead of 95 vs 5?

      --
      -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
    51. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Engineering Physics degree here, Sr. paper was published and even cited.

      First, physics is a bitch. The chemicals get so nasty the hazmat guys try to refuse to take, and the math is more intense than the crap the math majors deal with.

      Second, I said that too about majoring in CS.

      Third, your equipment is crap, my equipment was crap too and I had roughly a $50k lab.

      Fourth, real damn hard is an understatement when it comes to soldering wires onto germanium.

      Lastly, not shit you can't reproduce serious physics, you've got a semester, maybe two. They guys who produced those papers first had grant budgets and probably multiple grad, undergrad and possibly postdocs working on those projects across several years.

    52. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by scatbomb · · Score: 1

      If you can't reproduce it, it's either fake or you were just being sloppy. Either way, it's no wonder ordinary civilians have doubts.

      Or there was a hidden variable controlling the results. It's not always simple and reproducing results can be difficult if you don't get everything exactly the same. Just because I can't reproduce somebody's result doesn't mean their necessarily lying or wrong. There could be additional slight differences between what I'm doing and what the original author did.

    53. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by scatbomb · · Score: 1

      In fact, if I fail to reproduce a result, my first instinct is to dig deeper and figure out why. Usually these paths lead to something interesting and unexpected. That's how our knowledge advances: one person asserts one thing, another person fails to replicate it digs deeper and uncovers additional information. That's how it's supposed to work.

    54. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No.

      This is what you get if you publish all papers and nothing but the papers which are "statistically significant" (p0.05).

      See, every 20th research will get bogous "statistically significant" result. And papers would of course be full of those, because, hey, it's significant. But the reality is, we don't know if those results really are significant, or are we simply publishing every 20th random bullshit out there.

      Well, the fact that it can't be reproduced indicates the later.

    55. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by CharlieG · · Score: 1

      agreed. But when 99% of the people have just read 1-2 papers, and there is "consensus", without anyone reproducing any of the experiments, the opinion of the 99% is worth about what my opinion is - aka nothing

      --
      -- 73 de KG2V For the Children - RKBA! "You are what you do when it counts" - the Masso
    56. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Dread_ed · · Score: 1

      Thank you! In my haste I used precisely the wrong word. I should have said Geocentric.

      --
      When the only tool you have is a claw hammer every problem starts to look like the back of someone's skull.
    57. Re: Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hush. The most important part of 'Science' these days is that you have a consensus.

      Precisely, because it means that most people have gained sufficient enough evidence to believe that the 'explanation' in terms of one hypothesis is significantly more believable than any other alternative hypotheses.

    58. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by ranton · · Score: 1

      agreed. But when 99% of the people have just read 1-2 papers, and there is "consensus", without anyone reproducing any of the experiments, the opinion of the 99% is worth about what my opinion is - aka nothing

      I'm not sure what scenario you are describing here. No one cares about the consensus of the general public who read 0-2 scientific papers. It is the consensus of professional researchers who have read hundreds of papers and conducted their own experiments which matters.

      --
      -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
    59. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by wisnoskij · · Score: 1

      Two papers is not statistically significant, even 10 is pretty sparse. You need a statistically signification sample to start trusting to blind statistics to come up with the correct result.

      --
      Troll is not a replacement for I disagree.
    60. Re: Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      True, but would an examiner be able to back up that objection to block a grant or will it come down to a defense trial? If it's a trial, that's a great expense to just try a method and few companies would risk it.

    61. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by HiThere · · Score: 1

      In practice that requirement seems to never be enforced. IIRC someone got a patent on an FTL drive, but I'm not certain it was in the US. However, they needed a specific rule to eliminate patents on perpetual motion machines even back in the 1800's, so it's been a long time when the requirement that "someone skilled in the arts" can understand it and duplicate it has been enforced.

      --

      I think we've pushed this "anyone can grow up to be president" thing too far.
    62. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by TWX · · Score: 1

      If you can't reproduce it, it's either fake or you were just being sloppy. Either way, it's no wonder ordinary civilians have doubts.

      I am not concerned if any particular scientist or team can't replicate it. I am concerned if no one at all can replicate it.

      Modern cutting-edge science can be very hard to do to begin with. I don't care so much how many fail, I care if there are cases where it has succeeded.

      --
      Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
    63. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why, you're absolutely right. You are simply brilliant! Could you explain to us how randomness actually is "fake", too? Or is it just "sloppy"? What is actually telling is that your ignorant and incorrect comment has a Slashdot score of 4. There's been plenty written on the problems with some of the science published now days. Sure, there are fraudulent authors, and amazingly getting a STEM PhD doesn't cure human nature, there are still thieves, con-men, rapists and murderers with advanced degrees, and many (if not most) of them are going to cut corners from time to time, from often to rarely. Shocking! OK, enough of my sarcasm and condescension. The social sciences and the medical sciences have been shown to be particularly prone to reporting irreproducible results. The most egregious problem is the medical sciences failure to use appropriate statistical measures in their research and analyses. But then again, anyone who posts the nonsense you did wouldn't know a probability distribution if it hit him in the face.

    64. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by alvinrod · · Score: 2

      It's probably the best thing I've seen since Planes, Train, and Plantains. Although Chicken Chicken Chicken: Chicken Chicken is also pretty damned good, but I think only because I first saw the video of the presentation of the paper.

    65. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If science wasn't hard, it wouldn't be called Research, it would be called Fact-Checking.

    66. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by tbannist · · Score: 1

      You have that wrong, I think. Sure, the Scientific Method is not about building a consensus, however, the Advancement of Science (as in expanding our understanding of the universe), has to be about consensus. Without consensus on what is true (or likely to be true), Science would perennially be stuck at what a single scientist could accomplish in one lifetime. At some point, you have to accept that other scientists have already researched and discovered things. At that point, the scientific consensus will help you find areas for your own research that haven't already been exhaustively studied.

      Of course, there is nothing stopping someone for challenging the consensus on any scientific topic, but if you do want to challenge the consensus, then you better have a good alternate theory and the evidence to back it up.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    67. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by alvinrod · · Score: 1

      Okay, lets say you have two independent papers which both come to the same conclusion. If they both independently have a 60% chance of being wrong, they only have a 36% chance of both being wrong. If you take 10 independent papers with 9 of them agreeing, it is far more likely that the 1 outlier is wrong than the 9 other papers, regardless of the reproducibility failure rate of each individual paper.

      I think using a probabilistic model presents its own issues though. Take your example, but ask what if they both made the exact same major error (perhaps it was even a really easy one to make or due to some unknown factor that no one could have seen) then they're both 100% wrong in fact. Science is really hard, because there's a natural human tendency to ask, "What do I need to do in order to prove this correct?" when we should really be asking "Have I done every conceivable thing possible in order to try to disprove any possible other alternative explanations and account for factors that might also lead to a result?"

      Your single outlier could be the one paper that has discovered and accounted for the previously unknown factor or discovered some other problem with previous research. You can't just conclude that since in the majority of cases this is unlikely therefore we can dismiss the outlier. You still have to look at it, have a discussion about it, and see whether or not it's worth considering or if it means the other 9 studies need to be rerun to account for new information.

    68. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is a great example of how seemingly unrelated or insignificant factors may in fact be critical. It's good that your group was able to do the work to diagnose the problem.

      It can happen in engineering as well. Long ago a particular rocket, of a model with a successful track record, blew up. After some long investigation, it turned out that a fourth-level subcontractor had changed the brand of cleaner for removing impurities from a pipe they manufactured, that was sold to another company that made an assembly, that was sold to another company that made an assembly, that carried rocket fuel to the turbopump that was made by another company, that sold it to the rocket manufacturer. The particular fuel was hypergolic with the traces of cleaner that had been left behind. This is why the rocket business has such detailed, voluminous notes about _everything_.

    69. Re: Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      God, I hope not. Ask Darwin, or Galileo, or Copernicus, or Linnaeus. But I think you have /s turned on. :)

    70. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Here, reproduce this experiment that requires a multi-million dollar apparatus. Oh, you don;t have the budget? I guess the experiment is invalid then. Right?

    71. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One major problem is that medicine is confused with science. The media calls doctors scientists all the time, thus confusing the public about what science really is.

      Oh, and Nature is a rag.

    72. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      An intelligent, if misguided, comment. You write:"there shouldn't be anything missing from the protocol documentation that someone attempting to reproduce the results would have to learn from scratch." and yet you yourself acknowledge what *exactly* someone does depends on his/her entire educational experience from kindergarten to grad school (and beyond). This is exactly the same as "learning from scratch". In other words, you state people shouldn't need to have identical histories as long as they have had "sufficiently similar" histories and "well documented" procedures to follow. The world just doesn't work that way. (If it did, our need for lawyers would be vastly reduced). Even what the US Patent office says, that someone "skilled in the art" should be able to reproduce the work isn't realistic. Even experts disagree over the fine points. This reality is an old problem. It is (imho) the same one as the paradox behind the question of "who watches the watchers?" (or who polices the police?). It is "the same" as Godel's Incompleteness Theorem (which states any "sufficiently complex" axiomatic system has false propositions which can not be disproved and true propositions which also can't be proved). What I'm stating is that any sufficiently complex system has properties/characteristics which are exponentially expensive to control. The (hard science) lab sciences deal with materials which are sufficiently uniform so that their expected (laboratory) behavior is subject to a minimum of random interference from the rest of the world. For these, we can write standard methods (documentation) and provide calibration standards that can (often, but not always) be expected to replicate in any "normal" lab. Biology is just not that simple. The "motto" of the US Army is appropriate here: anything which can be misunderstood will be misunderstood. There is just no way to ensure two people reading the same "documentation" will interpret it identically. Having occassionally been responsible for understanding/explaining why two labs get different results using the same standardized test documentation, I can state categorically that "sufficiently well documented" is an impossible standard to reach - with a 100% certainty level. (for instance, each and every piece of equipment would have to be identical). This is not to say that in most circumstances sufficiently reproducible results are impossible, quite the contrary. Given good will, good communication, and adequate time and budget, most tests can be documented in sufficient detail so that any two people (having access to the exact same equipment (and given the FACT that equipment ages and all manufacturing process vary over time, that's an enormously improbable constraint) can get "sufficiently similar" results. A simple examination of the time (and effort) it takes the IT industry to come up with the documentation of a standard is clear proof that the cost is extraordinarily high. It's simply not reasonable, despite how "nice and simple" it would be, to ask researchers to spend the time and effort necessary to write these kind of "perfect world" documents (which would be obsolete before they were published most of the time). I file this under "peanut gallery" or perhaps "celibate priest giving marriage advice"...

    73. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by goose-incarnated · · Score: 1

      I agree, documentation of protocols needs to be improved; however, it's hard to document everything you did for a paper when the journal doesn't give you very many words at all to actually explain what you did, and many don't support video sections for online papers.

      Video is almost always less information-dense than text. Why would you want to spend ten minutes watching something that can be read in 60 seconds?

      --
      I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
    74. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by ranton · · Score: 1

      Your single outlier could be the one paper that has discovered and accounted for the previously unknown factor or discovered some other problem with previous research. You can't just conclude that since in the majority of cases this is unlikely therefore we can dismiss the outlier. You still have to look at it, have a discussion about it, and see whether or not it's worth considering or if it means the other 9 studies need to be rerun to account for new information.

      All of that is certainly possible, but once again you have to go with what is more likely. And it is far more likely that the one study made a mistake than all nine studies made the same mistake. But of course 10 studies is not a very large sample size. For comparison early research into climate change consensus looked at over 10,000 research papers.

      It will always be possible for one study to invalidate 10,000, but it certainly isn't likely. Even special relativity and quantum mechanics didn't throw out Newton's laws of motion, they just enhanced them in special circumstances.

      --
      -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
    75. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That is not necessarily true. When I was in graduate school, working on L-forms of Neisseria gonorrhea, we made media to support its growth using polyethylene glycol (PEG). We had to put the PEG solution in a dialysis membrane and then dialyze it for a couple of days before we made the media. It would only work with certain lot numbers from Sigma. If someone were to try to replicate the work, but didn't use a good lot number, their attempts would be unsuccessful. There was obviously an inhibitor of some sort that wasn't dialyzing out in some of the lot numbers.

    76. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by colin_faber · · Score: 1

      You sound like my theoretical physicist friends =)

    77. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well it was not what I call positive science. The *REAL* science happens when you can reproduce the result.

      There are a lot of papers out there are little more than 'help me graduate' or 'get to keep my job'.

      Sometimes these papers make a large splash on TV and the org that 'owns' them gets some extra funding.

      Going through 10 years of studies and coming up with 'nope that did not work at all' does not get you more funding. So you p-hack it and make it work in a very very narrow case or just seem like it.

    78. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous+Cow+Ward · · Score: 2

      Well, sometimes physical procedures are easier to show than tell. Some researchers I know do a lot of surgical dissections, and sectioning preserved tissue for some applications is really tricky, and it's a lot easier to show than it is to describe. A lot of things that require you to finish in a certain amount of time (snap-freezing organ sections to look at RNA levels, for instance) may be easier to learn by watching rather than reading.

      Reading is often more information-dense - and I definitely don't want to watch someone make up a buffer, I just want to know what's in it - but there's a reason we make med students watch doctors do things before they do it themselves. Video isn't the solution to everything, but for some things, especially ones that require some finesse, it's much more useful than text is.

      --
      Examine even your most deeply held beliefs. Nobody is always right.
    79. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Kind of like the science fair project I judged one time. It concluded that Elmer's glue was the same strength as Gorilla glue (and a few other glues). Looking at the experiments I informed the middle school student that their study setup sadly had determined the tensile strength of popsicle sticks, not the shear strength of glue. You also have to make sure your experiment end point isn't influenced by limited equipment or testing setup.

      Interesting, now clearly the student had made a rookie methodological error in differentiating between the strength of the glue versus the strength of the glued medium. (popsicle sticks versus differing glues) It is known that glue is stronger than wood in general, also depending on how it is bonded (end grain to end grain glue joints will not be nearly as strong as glued joints perpendicular to the wood grain, but that doesn't really matter as it is only one of many confounding factors.

      My question is relevancy here, how many other students attempted to reproduce the wood glue experiment and got different results?

    80. Re: Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Old news, science is not as good as scientists would like you to believe.
      Why most published results are false:

      http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124

      The author now leads a group at Stanford:https://metrics.stanford.edu/

    81. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Salgak1 · · Score: 1

      To continue the story, several of us asked "why". And compared the data we got, from the data we were EXPECTED to get (and 20 years of previous classes got. . . )

      The difference was more sodium and aluminum in the mineral profiles we found. These were all Feldspars, our results all tended towards orthoclase feldspars, rather than the actual plagioclase feldspars, which have higher calcium content.

      So the question became, if there was more aluminum and sodium than expected, and the sample hadn't changed, then the mounting matrix (i.e. the generic office rubber cement) had to be the change. We sent the old, dried-up jar, and the current jar. They found a slightly higher concentration of salt, and metallic aluminum contamination. No clue on how the Chem Department did the analysis, but I know the graduating Chem majors got handed the project as an exercise. . .

      And that's the rest of the story. Or, in the short version, Science, Bitches! (grin)

    82. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by meta-monkey · · Score: 1

      Okay but if we have 285 reproducible papers that say the value of X is 1.0 and 15 reproducible papers that say the value of X is 1.5, then we don't have a "consensus" that the value of X is 1.0. We have an active area of research in which scientists should be attempting to explain why X appears to be 1.0 at some times and 1.5 at other times.

      --
      We don't have a state-run media we have a media-run state.
    83. Re: Fake science/sloppy science by meta-monkey · · Score: 1

      Let's just all vote that anti-gravity exists and boom, hoverboards!

      --
      We don't have a state-run media we have a media-run state.
    84. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Okay, are supernovas fake or astronomers sloppy?

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    85. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by dsgrntlxmply · · Score: 1

      That graph looks far too much like MY graph from MY failed attempt to reproduce a published experiment in thermal conductivity of an organic system. You are going to be hearing from your Institutional Review Board. Also, I am jealous that you got a much better curve fit than I did.

      On a murkier note, a few years ago I did an online search for work in Single Event Upsets ("cosmic ray" interactions with electronics). I was a bit surprised to see a paper from a small institution in India, with a photo showing a test setup in front of a porthole in a thick shielding wall. The photo looked familiar, and the text in the paper was utter gobbledygook. I located the other paper, and sent an email to its principal investigator at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The reply arrived quickly, thanking me and noting that this was one of the most egregious examples of plagiarism that they had encountered.

    86. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      I'd love to see that actually done.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    87. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      "If X says it's so, then I agree" is just documenting assumptions. "X reports that the coefficient is 2.0 +/- 0.1 [X, 2013]" (which is the sort of formulation you find) shows the assumption and where it comes from. The paper can then go on assuming that that's what the coefficient is. If further experiments get unexpected results, and it looks in retrospect like a coefficient of 2.2 works better, then people are going to look at [X, 2013] more carefully.

      In a hypothetical case, it turns out that X ran a good experiment and wrote it up well, but there was something that X didn't account for that may be obscure. If your experiment relies on X's work, you're testing a prediction based on X's claim, which is basically how science works.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    88. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Slow down. Suppose you do an experiment and get certain results. You describe things in detail, but there's limits on how much detail you can get into. Now, it turns out that someone else follows your protocol meticulously and gets different results. There's some difference between your lab and the other guy's lab that neither of you thought important but which is. Suddenly, you've got something to investigate, and it's only because you published. There's nothing wrong with your original experiment or paper, since it described in detail what you did and what you observed. It's science, not science fiction, and it has that exciting "that's funny" air to it. You aren't yourself responsible for talking someone else into going through your protocol and reporting results.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    89. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Then why not describe the novel techniques you developed to complete the research in the paper? Any process that is claimed to require special abilities is actually one the needs training.

      It's kind of a cliche joke about cooking that following a recipe doesn't mean you get the same result as the person who came up with the recipe did. Some people's techniques are, if not actually inferior, at least different. The reductio ad absurdum of that is the Monty Python skit about the TV kids' show teaching you to play the flute; "You blow in this end here and move your fingers up and down these holes".

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    90. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Then why not describe the novel techniques you developed to complete the research in the paper? Any process that is claimed to require special abilities is actually one the needs training.

      Because no one cares. The funding model for science in the US encourages each lab to find a "niche," an approach or an experimental model unique to that lab, defended by a barrier of custom-fabricated apparatus or years-long technique development. No other lab can afford the loss of productivity associated with that kind of investment, to say nothing of the direct expense.

      This is also the reason it's hard to take the reproducibility project very seriously: if you're engaged in a project whose thesis is that many experiments are not reproducible, and you're not getting the same results as a subject paper, what's your interpretation? It could be that the original paper was a statisitical fluke; It could be that you need another six months practicing the technique to get it right.

      In the average academic lab, the "custom-fabricated apparatus" tends to be an army of grad students and postdocs doing mindless grunt labor like filling test tubes or counting bacterial colonies for 16 hours a day.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    91. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      I agree, documentation of protocols needs to be improved; however, it's hard to document everything you did for a paper when the journal doesn't give you very many words at all to actually explain what you did, and many don't support video sections for online papers.

      I believe it was "Help" that had the British scientists in a scene, with the one reporting into a microphone "I am moving my right foot; I am moving my left foot; I am moving my right foot; I am moving my left foot" etc.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    92. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This pretty sums up my experiences reproducing experiments in the lab : ob. Electron Band Structure In Germanium, My Ass

      At last, an honest lab report.
      My kid had to do a high school lab where they were supposed to demonstrate that a mixture of ice and water kept the same temp as it was heated until all the ice had melted, but of course their data proved the exact opposite; the thermometer kept going up all the time during which the ice was swimming around in the water sitting over the Bunsen burner (probably because it wasn't being stirred). So now, rather than teaching the kids about science, they're teaching the kids how to BS some random data into supporting what you are told it's supposed to say. Yeah, that's what we need more of.
      I did see a HS science fair contestant's mandatory lab notebook once, that contained
      "No work on the project this week.
      No work on the project this week either.
      No work on the project this week either. The project has ground to a halt"
      which I thought was the most honest thing in anybody's notebooks.

    93. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      If you can't reproduce it, it's either fake or you were just being sloppy. Either way, it's no wonder ordinary civilians have doubts.

      Sounds like something from The Onion: "Scientist fails to reproduce despite years of trying; feels his sloppiness is partially to blame"

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    94. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sounds like you should have been an art major. This is why I do not work in the scientific field that was my major. The scientific method is not followed.

    95. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      Nothing to stop you publishing the added material on your own website.

    96. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      Then publish the extra details somewhere else.
      If you are working at a university, the university's website will
      almost certainly provide space for your more detailed description.
      No excuse.

    97. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      "Just" sloppy, you say? Because any group of 50 undergraduates is as close to the Platonic ideal as any group of 50 trillion electrons?

      WTF are you talking about?

    98. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous+Cow+Ward · · Score: 1

      That's not necessarily true. Many universities don't want to (or don't have anything in place to, at least) host videos or lots of extra files. That could change, but as it stands most universities don't have good web people. Labs may not be able to spend grant money on hosting their own site either, since grant money can be tightly controlled depending on the source and institution.

      --
      Examine even your most deeply held beliefs. Nobody is always right.
    99. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous+Cow+Ward · · Score: 1

      No, I'm sorry, but that's false. Moreover, since the journal owns the copyright of the publication, there could be copyright issues in publishing additional material tied to a specific publication in another location.

      --
      Examine even your most deeply held beliefs. Nobody is always right.
    100. Re:Fake science/sloppy science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hold on a minute:
      >Soooo, Galileo had some experiments he could back up, but the other scientis....
      Nope, his theory predicted parallax. The other scientists looked and did not observe what was predicted. Centuries later the instruments needed to see parallax were finally available and th theory revived.

  3. Thats nothing.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Just imagine how software developers feel with shittier reproduction steps.

  4. Mix of patent theory and total fiction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    As per the subject, this comes from the collision of two things that are completely counter to the process of science.

    1) Patent theory. Since many more nations have access to patents than actually respect patents, it is self-destructive to put enough detail in a patent to actually build what the patent is for. For research papers, this has the benefit of being informed of any attempts to replicate the study, because the other labs will call in and ask questions to find out what was left out. This lets the guy who signed the paper know who is working in the same field and can decide whether to be helpful or antagonistic.

    2) Fiction. "Publish or perish! " "No one actually reads the papers!" "Everyone else is too busy writing their own papers to even look at replicating the experiment, who cares if it doesn't actually work?" And other little labor-saving excuses that show scientists are just as dishonest and self-serving as politicians.

  5. Bad "instructions" or bad (bought?) science by omfglearntoplay · · Score: 1

    From the article, it seems like people are trying to write things in a way to make them prettier... and less accurate. Quote: "The trouble is that gives you a rose-tinted view of the evidence because the results that get published tend to be the most interesting, the most exciting, novel, eye-catching, unexpected results. "

    This is slightly on topic... take the wording from wikipedia that seems to be designed to appeal to the masses and probably has misinformation (looks like big pharmacy got their hands in this entry, phobia of skin thinning is mostly unfounded?) and then the words from an Indian dermatology website with lots of actual biology verbiage and sure seems to support the fact that steroid use for your skin is bad.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

    Indian Journal of Dermatology:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/p...

    Random thing I found about scientists having problems with bad wikipedia entries:

    http://www.raysahelian.com/wik...

  6. Should they really consider themselves scientists? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If they have trouble reproducing studies maybe they need to go back to science school. Or look up "science" on wikipedia and do more learning.

  7. Not a problem in climate science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    The controlled, careful experiments which prove anthropogenic global warming are easily reproducible and their results incontrovertible. These experiments are real, really exist, completely account for every single relevant confounding factor in rigorous detail, and have been reproduced under identical conditions time and time again. That anthropogenic global warming is a fact on the same level of the facts that all effects have caused, or that true is a tautology and false a contradiction.

    1. Re:Not a problem in climate science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      There are some simple things you could do yourself to test the experiments.

      1. Calculate the black body temperature of a body the size of the Earth in the orbit of the Earth around a star with the surface temperature of the Sun.
      2. Correct your result for the albedo of Earth.
      3. Compare with the surface temperature of the Earth as measured by the local weather stations.
      4. Calculate the discrepancy and discuss possible causes.
      5. Get NASA data for the actual radiation of Earth measured by satellites.
      6. Use Kirchhoff's Law to calculate the apparent surface temperature of the Earth for a stellar observer.
      7. Compare again with the actual surface temperature of the Earth. Discuss the discrepancy and possible causes.
      8. Measure the absorbtion spectre of different concentrations of Carbondioxide.
      9. Look up the CO2 levels in the atmosphere in old publications, starting in the 1880ies.
      10. Plot the results in a time/CO2-evel diagram.
      11. Look up the amount of carbonous fossils mined and used for the years worldwide since the 1880ies.
      12. Calculate the amount of CO2 released for each year. Use linear interpolation if you don't get any good data for coal and crude oil usage for that year.
      13. Calculate the amount of CO2 necessary to increase the the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere worldwide from 1880ies levels to today levels.
      14. Discuss again the reasons behind the differences in the black body temperature of a theoretical Earth, the actual surface temperature of Earth and the thermal spectre of the Earth as seen from space.

      (Or continue to write hyperboles about things you didn't even look at and thus have no clue about.)

  8. Reproducibility is hard. by FellowConspirator · · Score: 5, Insightful

    In the experimental protocols listed in a paper, it is not unusual to have a method's section that is more or less an executive summary rather than a very detailed account of the underlying protocol. This is for two reasons: to great a level of detail leads to a methods section as big as the publication that the paper appears in, and second because many protocols more or less boil down to using a particular series kit or out-sourced lab service. Most journals require data supplements where an author must share their datasets in electronic form as an online addendum to the publication. I would support a similar requirement for a long-form protocol for reproduction of the study.

    That said, some protocols necessarily take a lot of money, special equipment, a carefully selected population of volunteers, and time. Reproducing some studies can be outright impractical.

    In computational biology and other computational extensions of the physical science, the reproducibility basically comes in the form of requirements to provide the software and raw data for a study. It's easy for the individual that compiles this information to verify that they get the same result as the one they report in the article. The concern there boils down to the provenance of the source data, which may be from registries, public data sets, or some combination of public and private data.

    1. Re:Reproducibility is hard. by RyanFenton · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Why are we still using printed journals?

      Why is the amount of space a report takes up still an issue?

      Details are important. If you want a short version, then make a summary, but don't cut out the detail available to do that.

      In terms of ascii/unicode text, we're not going to run out of bytes to explain important scientific details.

      Heck - make videos of the processes, mention part numbers, and even show mistakes that you encountered along the way in your notes! Video hosting is free, and shouldn't be going away anytime soon. Making a process replication video should be a normal thing.

      If you're spending so much time anyway, so much of your life in these studies, what's the value in holding back important information?

      Ryan Fenton

    2. Re:Reproducibility is hard. by ooloorie · · Score: 4, Insightful

      In computational biology and other computational extensions of the physical science, the reproducibility basically comes in the form of requirements to provide the software and raw data for a study. It's easy for the individual that compiles this information to verify that they get the same result as the one they report in the article. The concern there boils down to the provenance of the source data, which may be from registries, public data sets, or some combination of public and private data.

      The purpose of reproduction is to guard against statistical accidents, bad assumptions, and fraud, and running the same software over the same data doesn't do that. Reproduction in the scientific sense means that someone who collects their own data and writes their own software using just the assumptions stated in your paper gets the same scientific result.

      Reproducibility in computational and data intensive disciplines is actually a bigger problem than in experimental sciences, because it's so easy to share code and data; that means that lots of people run basically the same code over basically the same data and seem to be "reproducing" a result, when in fact, they are adding no new information.

    3. Re:Reproducibility is hard. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Spot on! many people don't appreciate the difference betwen repeatability and reproducibility. I noticed that wikipedia calls reproducbility and repeatability the same thing: "Reproducing an experiment is called replicating it. " !

    4. Re:Reproducibility is hard. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >Why are we still using printed journals?

      Ryan, if you are in the scientific community you'll know the value of printed journals... we write the heck on them. Notes, arrows, etc.

    5. Re:Reproducibility is hard. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      This. this this. Put everything online either in supplements or better yet at the end of the paper. Videos would be great. Photos of setups would be good also.

      We need to stop being constrained by printed journal space thinking. And protocols need to become much more detailed. Something as basic as buffers are a problem in many papers. How exactly was a buffer made? It is impossible to tell most of the time if the temperature or salt concentration or dilution that the buffer is being used at is taken into consideration when the buffer is being made. So the author may have made the a buffer at pH 7, but it might be actually buffering at pH 6.6. I am working on a protein that goes through a structural transition in that range. Either the journals or the reviewers need to get tougher about people using the wrong buffer. When the pKa of your buffer is 6 and the experiments are being done at pH 8, you have problem. That experiment needs to done again, not published.

      I read so many paper where I can't figure out what the authors actually did because the protocols are sloppy. Then people tell me I should write them and ask. If the papers are being properly written, reviewed, and edited, I should not need to write the authors about basic details of the protocol.

      Due to all of this sloppiness, I have rarely been able to reproduce other peoples work.

    6. Re:Reproducibility is hard. by WrongMonkey · · Score: 2

      In practice, we are not using printed journals. Almost every journal has an on-line supplement section where authors can include all of the information you just mentioned and much more.

    7. Re:Reproducibility is hard. by Rockoon · · Score: 1

      Almost every journal has an on-line supplement section where authors can include all of the information you just mentioned and much more.

      Authors do not do so.

      --
      "His name was James Damore."
    8. Re:Reproducibility is hard. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Are you Ryan Fenton by any chance?

    9. Re:Reproducibility is hard. by serviscope_minor · · Score: 2

      Authors do not do so.

      Yeah we do.

      But those bits aren't reviewed.

      --
      SJW n. One who posts facts.
    10. Re:Reproducibility is hard. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't act like you're a "scientist". You're a fucking republitard trump troll. You don't do shit.

  9. can't make $$$ if your study fails by known_coward_69 · · Score: 2

    getting the results you need means you can push a drug through trials and make a lot of money

    if you hurt or kill someone it won't happen for 20-30 years and by that time you will be retired and the person in charge at the time will be legally responsible while you chill in your nice house

    1. Re:can't make $$$ if your study fails by tinkerton · · Score: 1

      Drug tests occur in an area where mistakes can ruin a company through lawsuits. I think the reliability there is far above average. That is, reliability where health hazards are concerned. I would not be so sure about effectivity testing but I still suspect that this more visible area of science is one where experimental rigor is way above average. I may be a sceptic about what average means.
      Finding out whether your medicine will hurt someone in thirty years time can be pretty hard. Failing to do so doesn't mean you couldn't be bothered.

    2. Re:can't make $$$ if your study fails by known_coward_69 · · Score: 2

      that's the point. look at vioxx. it was first developed in the 80's and the lawsuits didn't happen until 20 years later. the people who originally developed it and oversaw it being released to market were long gone by then. and during the whole lawsuit hype there were old scientists on TV who read the original research at the time and said it would most likely cause problems due to the way it worked

  10. Because university is a cult... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ... and forces an ultra-competitive dog-eat-dog publish-or-perish atmosphere, *and* is a market-driven debt-creating profit-centered business, *and* creates unhealthy work environments, *and* legitimizes ultra-left-wing nonsense...

    Why is university so lauded these days?

  11. Re:And you wonder why?? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    You forgot the greatest food toxin of them all: sugar.

  12. The trillion-dollar answer to Why. by geekmux · · Score: 0

    Science is facing a "reproducibility crisis" where more than two-thirds of researchers have tried and failed to reproduce another scientist's experiments...

    Well, damn, that's a rather huge issue. I wonder what the motivator would be to create experiments of questionable validity in the first place?

    ...which attempted to repeat the findings reported in five landmark cancer studies...

    Ah, there's the trillion-dollar answer. I see Greed N. Corruption is still in charge...

    1. Re:The trillion-dollar answer to Why. by GLMDesigns · · Score: 1

      Greed?

      Whose greed?

      Foolish you. You assume greed == corporations.

      Greed for fame?
      Greed for advancement?
      Greed for pushing a personal agenda?
      Publish or Perish.

      --
      If you're scared of your govt then you need to further restrict its powers
      Vote 3rd Party in 2016 and beyond
    2. Re:The trillion-dollar answer to Why. by known_coward_69 · · Score: 1

      $$$

      lots and lots of money since insurance will pay for virtually everything these days and so many more people have it now

    3. Re:The trillion-dollar answer to Why. by geekmux · · Score: 1, Troll

      Greed? Whose greed? Foolish you. You assume greed == corporations. Greed for fame? Greed for advancement? Greed for pushing a personal agenda? Publish or Perish.

      A landmark study can drive policy. It can shift entire ideologies. It can change a cultural mindset.

      If you want answers to your questions, then I challenge you to dig into the five landmark cancer studies that they have found to be unrepeatable. I can think of a trillion reasons why studies might prove to be bullshit to benefit the Cancer Treatment Complex.

      Do I need to research or even assume what would motivate Greed to twist facts and distort truth? No. All I have to do is look at history.

      From TFA:

      "Without efforts to reproduce the findings of others, we don't know if the facts out there actually represent what's happening in biology or not...It could be that we would be much further forward in terms of developing new cures and treatments."

      Ah, there it is ...the other c-word no one ever wants to hear within the Cancer Treatment Complex.

      'Nuff said.

    4. Re:The trillion-dollar answer to Why. by GLMDesigns · · Score: 1

      I was just commenting on the premise that greed == always bad == corporations.

      Greed can also exist in individual scientists and bureaucrats and can be against the best interest of the corporation (or the funders of the project).

      Cancer cures are a good thing.
      Cancer cures requires work and investment capital.
      Scientists need to be paid (along with everyone else including HR and people mopping the floors)
      Investment capital needs to be repaid with dividends.

      All the above are good good things.

      --
      If you're scared of your govt then you need to further restrict its powers
      Vote 3rd Party in 2016 and beyond
    5. Re:The trillion-dollar answer to Why. by geekmux · · Score: 2

      I was just commenting on the premise that greed == always bad == corporations. Greed can also exist in individual scientists and bureaucrats and can be against the best interest of the corporation (or the funders of the project). Cancer cures are a good thing. Cancer cures requires work and investment capital. Scientists need to be paid (along with everyone else including HR and people mopping the floors) Investment capital needs to be repaid with dividends. All the above are good good things.

      Common F. Sense agrees that all of the above are good things

      The problem is Greed N. Corruption isn't really interested in curing jack shit anymore, and will always favor perpetual treatments to feed profits.

      Treatments create unending profits.

      Treatments create unending jobs.

      Cures ultimately destroy jobs and severely limit perpetual revenue and profits, which does not pay the dividends that Wall Street now demands.

      Those running counter to the best interests of those in Control will ultimately be removed from the equation.

    6. Re:The trillion-dollar answer to Why. by GLMDesigns · · Score: 1

      Good argument. But wall street isn't the only player. And some (say Bill Gates) have made their money and have no problem funding cures.

      --
      If you're scared of your govt then you need to further restrict its powers
      Vote 3rd Party in 2016 and beyond
    7. Re:The trillion-dollar answer to Why. by geekmux · · Score: 1

      Good argument. But wall street isn't the only player. And some (say Bill Gates) have made their money and have no problem funding cures.

      When it comes to Bill Gates or any other human on this planet, I only have one thing to say regarding cures, and the ability to disrupt the Cancer Treatment Complex.

      Fucking Prove It.

    8. Re:The trillion-dollar answer to Why. by GLMDesigns · · Score: 1

      Yeah. No doubt. People can say what they want. But, as a moderately interested outsider, he *seems* to be putting his money where his mouth is regarding mosquito netting and malaria medication.

      That is not a cure but prevention is better than a cure. Of course the argument can be made that there was no money to be made in Africa anyway ... but. It's a start. It's something.

      As per our conversation - it's a good thing.

      There will always be a need for pharma companies. There will always be diseases (especially as lifespans increase).

      --
      If you're scared of your govt then you need to further restrict its powers
      Vote 3rd Party in 2016 and beyond
    9. Re:The trillion-dollar answer to Why. by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      I was just commenting on the premise that greed == always bad == corporations. Greed can also exist in individual scientists and bureaucrats and can be against the best interest of the corporation (or the funders of the project). Cancer cures are a good thing. Cancer cures requires work and investment capital. Scientists need to be paid (along with everyone else including HR and people mopping the floors) Investment capital needs to be repaid with dividends. All the above are good good things.

      Common F. Sense agrees that all of the above are good things

      The problem is Greed N. Corruption isn't really interested in curing jack shit anymore, and will always favor perpetual treatments to feed profits.

      Treatments create unending profits.

      Treatments create unending jobs.

      Cures ultimately destroy jobs and severely limit perpetual revenue and profits, which does not pay the dividends that Wall Street now demands.

      Those running counter to the best interests of those in Control will ultimately be removed from the equation.

      Not being argumentative here, but many forms of cancer are, in fact, things where successful treatment nowadays does mean a cure with no further treatment required; like in the old days when the main job of pharmacology was curing infections, and unlike the current paradigm of lifelong treatments of things that would otherwise be fatal, like HIV or diabetes or autoimmune stuff. In fact, it seems to me that the occasions where people are not cured and require lifelong treatments for cancer tend not to last for a particularly long life, by and large.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    10. Re:The trillion-dollar answer to Why. by geekmux · · Score: 1

      Not being argumentative here, but many forms of cancer are, in fact, things where successful treatment nowadays does mean a cure with no further treatment required; like in the old days when the main job of pharmacology was curing infections, and unlike the current paradigm of lifelong treatments of things that would otherwise be fatal, like HIV or diabetes or autoimmune stuff.

      Your prescribed current paradigm tends to contradict your initial statement, but does tend to reinforce what I've been saying all along. More on that below.

      In fact, it seems to me that the occasions where people are not cured and require lifelong treatments for cancer tend not to last for a particularly long life, by and large.

      There's a reason that lifelong treatments are limited. It has to do with the average bank account that can afford to pay for it. I can assure you that Big Data has carefully calculated the MSRP of unending treatments down to the penny to maximize revenue streams while minimizing burden. In other words, they know how long they can suck you dry from a financial standpoint, and know when to call Hospice.

  13. Its not a crisis by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    That is how science works. Replicate, or it isn't true as presented.

  14. The rush to "publish or perish" by davidwr · · Score: 2

    The authors should have done it themselves before publication

    In the rush to "publish or perish," you don't have time to re-run your experiment.

    A "solution" would be "split publication" - publish results after the first experiment but call it "unverified." Then when you or another researcher reproduces the experiment, publish again.

    The first researcher would receive the primary "credit" but only if the results held up under scrutiny.

    Over time, researchers who accumulated a lot of "un-verified" initial publications would see their reputations suffer.

    --
    Knowledge is how to play a game, intelligence is how to win, wisdom is knowing what game to play.
    1. Re:The rush to "publish or perish" by Dthief · · Score: 3, Insightful

      And who is going to waste their time reproducing results that get them no glory, no "real" publications, etc etc etc

      --
      www.RacquetUp.org - Helping Detroit Youth
    2. Re:The rush to "publish or perish" by WrongMonkey · · Score: 1

      Grants >> glory. Almost everyone in scientific research is aware of the problem and wants to address it. But money is the problem. If there were grants to fund replication of results, then scientists would be jumping at the opportunity.

    3. Re:The rush to "publish or perish" by budgenator · · Score: 1

      If the journals published work with researchers who have proven themselves by doing solid replication work first, you'd see a change in attitude.

      --
      Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
    4. Re:The rush to "publish or perish" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I work in tech services in the oilfield. We verify the performance claims of vendor supplied materials. This is big time true with stuff fresh out of r+D (sic) labs.

  15. Re:Should they really consider themselves scientis by geekmux · · Score: 2

    If they have trouble reproducing studies maybe they need to go back to science school. Or look up "science" on wikipedia and do more learning.

    Ah, because there's no way in hell that the initial experiments could have been fabricated to favor certain outcomes, especially within the trillion-dollar Cancer Treatment Complex, right?

    Yeah, you're right. Over 65% of trained researchers must be stupid or something...

  16. Science discourages reproducing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Scientists are not rewarded for reproducing/debunking previous work. You can't easily get it published, because it is not regarded as new. Honestly, I think grad student projects should be almost entirely reproducing other results. It would insure that every important result is reproduced, and increase the emphasis of doing the science correctly rather than finding some novel result (which is usually a 2 sigma result which again can't be reproduced).

    1. Re:Science discourages reproducing by Dissenter · · Score: 1

      That's a really good point and I would have to agree. Letting grad students do research while they have no practical application of their yet inexperienced education is like letting a 10 year old try to drive a car just because he was able to read the manual. Giving them the task of reproducing experiments and prooving or disprooving their validity is an excellent way to get hands on experience without adding elements of risk to an already challenging field.

      --

      Dissenter
      "There is no knowledge that is not power."

    2. Re:Science discourages reproducing by twistedcubic · · Score: 2

      I did this once as a grad student. I pointed out an error to the authors of a published study. They were nice, but some of the email exchanges were a little tense. Understandably, emotions get high in a situation like this. However, I would not recommend grad students do this as a general project, because they can be easily attacked by more senior researchers with better standing in their fields.

    3. Re:Science discourages reproducing by WrongMonkey · · Score: 5, Insightful

      You are vastly underestimating grad students. All grad students already have a bachelor's degree, had high enough grades to get accepted to grad school and had previous undergraduate research experience. Most incoming grad students have already published research papers. Many of them have had industry experience between undergrad and grad school. The average age of grad students is 33 years old. We're talking about mid-career professionals, not wet-behind the ears newbies.

    4. Re:Science discourages reproducing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      However, I would not recommend grad students do this as a general project, because they can be easily attacked by more senior researchers with better standing in their fields.

      And this is why academic scientists don't do science any more, if they ever did. Why should the public believe science any more than religion when they are the same hierarchy of egos and power in the end?

    5. Re:Science discourages reproducing by eepok · · Score: 1

      > Honestly, I think grad student projects should be almost entirely reproducing other results.

      I'd say half their time. In fact, their first half. If you want to be allowed 4 years to work on your own creation, you need to do 4 years of replicability studies and publish the findings. As academia adapts to more stringent standards of replicability, the 50% concept can be reduced, but this needs to be a multi-generational thing.

    6. Re:Science discourages reproducing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The average age of grad students is 33 years old. We're talking about mid-career professionals, not wet-behind the ears newbies.

      This is BS. Where did you get that from? I'm 37 and have had my Ph.D. for 10 years and I am far older than any grad students in my department. Most finish mid-to-late 20's like me...

    7. Re:Science discourages reproducing by WrongMonkey · · Score: 1

      You've had a PhD for 10 years, but you can't type 5 words into google? http://lmgtfy.com/?q=average+a...

    8. Re:Science discourages reproducing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That website you are referring to is BS propaganda to draw more adults in grad school. Either that are they confuse the average age of grad students with the age the grad students actually graduate. Here's a link to some real data and particularly look at "Table 1. Median age at graduation of recent doctoral graduates" (my emphasis). For natural sciences, the median age that people _receive_ their Ph.D. is at 30.5 years old. For all fields, when they _receive_ their Ph.D., it's 32.7 years old.

    9. Re:Science discourages reproducing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Did you do your PhD research in splitting hairs? Whether the median age is 27 or 33, my original point still stands.

  17. Re:And you wonder why?? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I don't know about you, but mercury is in my food because of anthropogenic global change - in my case caused by the "forty-niners" (not the second rate American football team but the 1849 California gold rush miners) indiscriminately using and disposing of mercury in the environment.

  18. Debunkers exaggerate their claims too by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Sadly nothing, it seems, could be further from the truth.

    What? A failure rate of 2/3 is unbeatable? Shouldn't 2+2=5, which has a failure rate of 100%, be further from the truth?

  19. Not Science, Medicine by Roger+W+Moore · · Score: 5, Interesting

    This is medical research, not science. Medicine uses science because often the best way to cure something is to understand it but, very importantly, it has a very different motivation to science. Finding a "magic" pill which cures disease X without side effects but whose mechanism is completely unknown is great medicine but appalling science. Science is all about understanding how things work, medicine is all about treating human ailments.

    This leads to a different approach using the tools of science. Medical researchers tend to focus far more on correlation over causation because that is what is most important to this. Unfortunately this approach leaves them open to random statistical effects which require a very good understanding of statistics to avoid and even then it can still be very easy to fool yourself e.g. the Monty Hall effect.

    So lets call this problem what it is: a problem with medical research.

    1. Re:Not Science, Medicine by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sorry, but that is absolutely a problem that you think this way.

      Lets make it clear, everything you just said has no basis in logic at all. The reason for following scientific principles are to help weed out unperceived bias and Monty Hall problems, among others. Everyone claiming that reproducible research is improbable due to logistics are overtly focused on the mechanics of a problem instead of the principal of it.

      We are taking huge risks by allowing the level of difficulty justify results that cannot be reconciled with additional testing. If the theory cannot be demonstrated "repeatedly" through the scientific method or "double-blind placebo" tests in case of medicine then we should be looking on these results with "discriminating" eyes.

      The "Science" is really that important! Because otherwise we keep riding this... Its global cooling, no its global warming, no its climate change, no its butter is bad, no its margarine, no its fat, no it certain fats, no its eggs, no its milk, no it meat, no its carbs, and OH FUCK... is that gluten free, ROLLER-COASTER we have been one for a while.

      We need results that we can trust, and not because we have concerns that a person is lying about the science and motivations, that will always be a secondary issue that will never go away. We need results we can continually test and verify, so we can know the fact and safely ignore that fact that the researcher is biased or a paid shill.

    2. Re:Not Science, Medicine by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      Medical researchers tend to focus far more on correlation over causation because that is what is most important to this

      No, they focus on correlation because causation is frequently so complex that it can not be deciphered with our current level of knowledge. It can often take decades after we find the correlation that we can nail down the causation.

    3. Re:Not Science, Medicine by Roger+W+Moore · · Score: 1

      No, they focus on correlation because causation is frequently so complex that it can not be deciphered with our current level of knowledge.

      Exactly but if they were a scientist then this is when they would stop and go and look at a different problem that they can decipher with our current level of knowledge. That is part of being a good scientist: you have to tackle things which you can ultimately understand because it is that understanding which is the goal of science. In medicine the correlation is enough: if substance X or activity Y cures ailment Z that's good medicine, why and how is of secondary importance.

    4. Re:Not Science, Medicine by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      Exactly but if they were a scientist then this is when they would stop and go and look at a different problem

      Uh, no. This is where a good scientist keeps digging into it in order to expand our level of knowledge.

      At the same time, you also start manufacturing the drug because it works, even though you don't know how it works down to the last atom.

    5. Re:Not Science, Medicine by Roger+W+Moore · · Score: 1

      Uh, no. This is where a good scientist keeps digging into it in order to expand our level of knowledge.

      In which case your original premise that "causation is frequently so complex that it can not be deciphered with our current level of knowledge" is not correct. You cannot have it both ways: either the causation is understandable - with hard work and insight - or it is not. If it is understandable then this is what a scientist will go after because understanding is their goal. For a medical researcher establishing causation is enough which is very susceptible to random statistical flukes.

    6. Re:Not Science, Medicine by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      How are you supposed to know if the causation is too complex if you don't go looking for it in the first place?

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    7. Re:Not Science, Medicine by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      In which case your original premise that "causation is frequently so complex that it can not be deciphered with our current level of knowledge" is not correct.

      What part of "expand our level of knowledge" do you not understand?

  20. Misleading Headline by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    That's a very misleading headline. Since 'more than two-thirds of researchers have tried and failed to reproduce another scientist's experiments' perhaps a more accurate headline would be 'Most Scientists Haven't Been Able to Replicate at Least One Study by their Peers'. While I have occasionally had difficulty in replicating experiments (and so fall into the category of 'Most Scientists') this didn't make me feel that science is in a 'crisis'. Plus, as anyone who cooks will know, simply following the recipe doesn't always guarantee good results - some experiments may require a certain degree of skill (manual dexterity, etc.) to perform, some may fail to clarify leave important points unsaid. These are problems of course, but it's not exactly the same as the 'Science in crisis' viewpoint or the massive intentional fraud implications that the summary seems to be pushing. On the other hand, it does seem to focus on biomedical studies while I am at the harder end of the scientific spectrum so YMMV.

  21. NB: most medical scientists by Artem+S.+Tashkinov · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The human body is the most complex organism in the known universe so there's nothing to be sneezed at or be surprised by. For instance recent studies have shown that for a lot of people placebo works even when people have a perfect knowledge that they are given placebo.

    As another confirmation, the brain has the ability to directly change/affect the chemical processes in the body as demonstrated by Wim Hof who can manage his body's temperature at will.

    1. Re:NB: most medical scientists by c0d3g33k · · Score: 1

      > The human body is the most complex organism in the known universe ...

      Found the anthropocentrist.

    2. Re: NB: most medical scientists by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So complex than a microbe can collapse it , lol.

    3. Re:NB: most medical scientists by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Perfect knowledge? What's that. Yes the participants were told they were given a placebo, but the study* is likely flawed due to the way they were told about the placebo. The patients were told something along the lines that the placebo despite having no active ingredients does make some people feel better, and while that would be a true statement, it also biases the response of the patient.

      To be fair though, getting this right is really hard.

      *There was no study linked, so I can't check, but I have heard about this result before.

    4. Re: NB: most medical scientists by Artem+S.+Tashkinov · · Score: 1

      Complex doesn't mean perfect or without flaws. Also, you cannot imagine how many germs coexist with us and we depend our life on them.

      Also I'm not a biologist however as far as I understand it's not viruses that kill us, it's our own failing biology due to our DNA: death is programmed deep in our DNA, or otherwise there wouldn't be evolution. I might be totally wrong of course - I'd like to hear what actual biologists would say.

    5. Re:NB: most medical scientists by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I, equally, am one of those freaks.
      I can change my heart beat at will, simulate and override my senses too.
      I can literally draw over my vision as if I had a pen inside my eyes. Or touch myself in no-no places without moving anything anywhere.

      I was in hospital for unrelated reasons, and doctor was taking my vitals like clockwork.
      She was a student. I put my sitting body at 160bpm. The look on her face was hilarious, of utter shock.

      Yeah, I'll probably die young. (30 now)

  22. Bigots!!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    These gentle souls simply self identify as "leading scientists" and are expressing their fwheelengs through their dedication to "science". They are entitled to their own reality (i.e. "settle the science"), and if you disagree, you are a denier scienceaphobe h8'er who should be restrained against speaking. I personally self identify as Marie Currie as she wore some dead sexy dresses and was way ahead of her time. Now where's my grant? I have some shrimp and a treadmill all ready to go.

  23. Science Isn't Broken (It’s just a lot harder by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 1
    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
  24. Financial motives... by dark.nebulae · · Score: 2

    If I were publishing a paper on something that could lead to a serious pile of greenbacks, you can be damn sure my paper is going to exclude some details that would prevent others from monetizing off of my work...

    After all, science these days is not solely for the pursuit of truth and knowledge. Research is bought and paid for, and like any venture capital, the investments are expected to pay off.

    1. Re:Financial motives... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Then your paper will (if peer review is working as it should and you are not simply fabricating) be rejected and in any case, in that situation, why would you publish rather than patent?

      You're right though, I too miss the days when nobody sought to profit from scientific research... when was that again? Before the Renaissance maybe? Prior to the invention of Damascus steel? Perhaps the inventor of iron smelting gave the secrets away freely... I do miss early antiquity...

    2. Re:Financial motives... by pipingguy · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The part of Eisenhower's speech that is rarely quoted, for some reason: "Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been overshadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers.

      The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present and is gravely to be regarded.

      Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific technological elite.
      "

    3. Re:Financial motives... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If I were publishing a paper on something that could lead to a serious pile of greenbacks, you can be damn sure my paper is going to exclude some details that would prevent others from monetizing off of my work...

      After all, science these days is not solely for the pursuit of truth and knowledge. Research is bought and paid for, and like any venture capital, the investments are expected to pay off.

      If I'd discovered something that was going to lead to a serious pile of greenbacks, I wouldn't be publishing it.

  25. Most Scientists by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    When using Scientist as in medicine, please use quotes.

  26. Questions require listening by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It's not heresy if the science is sound. Simply questioning isn't valid, though.

    Questioning, of course, is always valid. But "questioning" is useless when the questioner has no interest in listening to anybody answering the question.

    Far too much of the "questioning" about climate science is from people who have no interest in any of the science, the measurements, or the data, and won't bother to learn anything about it.

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
    1. Re:Questions require listening by rjstanford · · Score: 1

      Well said.

      --
      You're special forces then? That's great! I just love your olympics!
    2. Re:Questions require listening by bane2571 · · Score: 2

      I have a large interest in climate science instrumentation (at least relative to other laypeople).

      There have been a few questions I've never been able to answer:
      What is the precision of an ocean going thermometer?
      what was the precision of a 1900s era thermometer?
      What was the average uncertainty of a 1900s thermometer and how does it compare with current technology, also what are the known biases in temperature measurement of the time?

      It would seem to me that any comparison of pre-modern temperatures to modern temperatures should include that information but I've never been able to find it. But back on the topic of reproducible scientific studies, can you show me a reproduction study for any study in the climate science field? I don't ask that to be facetious, I legitimately have no idea how to go about finding one.

    3. Re:Questions require listening by jemmyw · · Score: 2

      Well you can answer at least one of your questions. I've seen the 1900 era thermometer question come up before and the answer is to within 0.1 of a degree, and typically more accurate than a a modern electronic one. You could probably even get hold of one to test that assertion.

    4. Re:Questions require listening by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      I have a large interest in climate science instrumentation (at least relative to other laypeople). There have been a few questions I've never been able to answer: What is the precision of an ocean going thermometer? what was the precision of a 1900s era thermometer? What was the average uncertainty of a 1900s thermometer and how does it compare with current technology, also what are the known biases in temperature measurement of the time? It would seem to me that any comparison of pre-modern temperatures to modern temperatures should include that information but I've never been able to find it. But back on the topic of reproducible scientific studies, can you show me a reproduction study for any study in the climate science field? I don't ask that to be facetious, I legitimately have no idea how to go about finding one.

      What would reproducing a climate study consist of? You've got a bunch of temp measurements from all over the world over a period of time, you average them geographically for each time point and look for a trend. You can't go back and redo all those measurements, but on the other hand that's a different situation from one set of measurements in one lab's experiment one time.
      If you got another set of temp measurements, you'd just add them into the averaging for more precision, rather than say "well, Cleveland isn't warming, so there is some doubt". (Obviously, you don't just average in a bunch of measurements, everything has to be weighted in a rationally defensible manner).
      I suppose the closest thing would be some sort of statistical analysis, like the "Monte Carlo" simulations where you take random subsets of the overall dataset, perform the same weighting etc. on them and see what's the confidence interval of all the different curves you get.
      http://www3.geosc.psu.edu/~kzk10/Urban_Keller_Tel_08.pdf
      http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.574.6778&rep=rep1&type=pdf
      But although that's a common statistical technique these days, it's not "conservative" in the sense of being mathematically defensible as to the confidence interval of your confidence intervals, if you can kind of see what I mean; for instance, the FDA would never accept that in an analysis of a drug study, so it won't convince the diehard skeptic. Not that that implies that something exists that would convince a diehard skeptic, of course.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
  27. What is that supposed to mean? by Opportunist · · Score: 1

    Can two thirds of the results not be reproduced? That is a huge problem with our academic credibility and what we consider science.

    Can two thirds of the scientists not reproduce results? That's a huge problem with our academic standards and what we consider scientists.

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    1. Re:What is that supposed to mean? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It seems that it means that two thirds of scientists have been unable to replicate a study at least once in their lifetime. When it's phrased like that, it doesn't seem like such a huge problem.

  28. Re:And you wonder why?? by rjstanford · · Score: 1

    In fairness, if I found out that teh guvmnt was putting significant quantities of sugar in my water I'd be a little upset too. It would certainly make washing up more challenging.

    --
    You're special forces then? That's great! I just love your olympics!
  29. The grand experiment by Layzej · · Score: 3, Informative

    Many studies have been done on anthropic climate change, but almost no experiments.

    There's one rather large experiment going on right now. Unfortunately we're all inside the test tube. So far it's turning out more or less how we expected.

  30. Field!!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Thanks for posting this. The press should really make an effort to separate the "eggs are good/bad for you" studies from everything else that is indeed very well proven...such as relativity and quantum physics which are the foundation of our daily lives. Its one thing to prove an equation that can help design a device that will either work or not. Its an entirely different thing to prove the effects of a complex substance on a system made of billions of separate living entities who's interactions are not fully understood*.

    *climate science does not fall into this category. Although it is a large system, we understand the physics and can precisely measure and predict large scale changes very well. Existing climate models are generally conservative, correct and also predict the situations on Mars and Venus.

  31. The solution is simple. by hey! · · Score: 1

    If at first you don't succeed, try try again. Then if you succeed, try try again. Carry on until you have constructed a body of results you can evaluate as a whole.

    There is a reproducibility problem for who have a model of the universe that works like this: If A is true, then investigation will uncover evidence supporting A, and no evidence supporting not-A. If this is your world view, then the instant you have any contradictory data you have a worldview crisis.

    It is perfectly normal for science to yield contradictory results. That's why when you see a study reported saying taking Garcina Cambogia yields astonishing weight loss results you don't immediately run out to the health food store to buy miracle pills. It's absolutely routine for results like this not to stand up. The problem is that journalists are too ignorant of how science works to understand this.

    --
    Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    1. Re:The solution is simple. by budgenator · · Score: 1

      It is perfectly normal for science to yield contradictory results. That's why when you see a study reported saying taking Garcina Cambogia yields astonishing weight loss results you don't immediately run out to the health food store to buy miracle pills. It's absolutely routine for results like this not to stand up. The problem is that journalists are too ignorant of how science works to understand this.

      The problem may be the while Garcina Cambogia causes 30% more weight to be lost, 30% more of zero is still zero.

      --
      Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds
    2. Re:The solution is simple. by hey! · · Score: 1

      The problem may be the while Garcina Cambogia causes 30% more weight to be lost, 30% more of zero is still zero.

      If that's what happens anyway it's somewhat problematic to use the word causes -- unless it's a different 30% in each case that would have happened otherwise. It's a bit like Woody Allen's the Great Roe: "A mythological beast with the head of a lion and the body of a lion, though not the same lion."

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
  32. Oh, that's the problem by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Oh my god that's terrible! (Reads article.) Oh, you mean biology and psychology. I thought you were talking about real science. /Physicist

  33. Reproduction != Consensus by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Consensus is about acceptance of theory and is highly interpretive. Reproducing a study is just a question of whether you get the same data when following the same procedure. Most scientific disagreement is not over such facts, but over what they mean, and perhaps whether the procedure itself is flawed in some way that invalidates the supposedly meaningful results.

    While reproducibility is an important aspect of science (though difficult for practical reasons and often taken on faith until fraud is reasonably suspected), consensus should only matter within a particular research program - anything more can lead to group think and academic stagnation, with important avenues of research being left unexplored. So I don't think it is a double standard to hold scientists accountable to two different aspects of scientific behavior.

  34. Am I a skeptic or does this mean most is fake? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Certainly seems like a lot of people were faking results and probably weren't even doing research.

  35. The title of this article is very misleading. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The title of this article does an extreme disservice to the scientific community at large. This article is referring to medical research, not to scientific research in general. Creating a sweeping generalization in a title is misleading to the general public and gives the impression that most scientific research is flawed. This type of attention grabbing headline on Slashdot is shameful.

    1. Re:The title of this article is very misleading. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One field after another is showing serious replication problems. You can continue to dismiss those fields as "not real science" for only so long. Eventually, there won't be anything left to call 'science'.

      Physics isn't immune to this either, you know. After all, physicists seem to think there's a problem, so you might want to rethink your position before the next big study comes out and kicks your sacred cow. Rather than hold to that silly 'not real science' defensive line, you might want to start thinking about why this problem is so widespread, and what can be done to fix it.

      Sticking your head in the sand is probably the most harmful thing you could do to science. I know, you're terrified that people "won't believe in science" if they knew how it worked in practice. I say, that's a good thing. Science isn't a religion. If you continue to treat it like one, rejecting all criticisms, refusing to adapt and change in response to internal problems, then it ought to be dismissed. What would be the point in keeping it around in such a state?

  36. Instrument calibration by hackwrench · · Score: 2

    When instrument calibration is examined and bad data thrown out, the researcher involved is accused of manipulation of the data to suit nefarious ends.

    1. Re: Instrument calibration by hackwrench · · Score: 2

      I wasn't making a judgment, just stating what happens.

    2. Re: Instrument calibration by radiumsoup · · Score: 0

      [observation]When instrument calibration is examined and bad data thrown out, the researcher involved is accused of manipulation of the data[/observation] [judgment]to suit nefarious ends.[/judgment]

    3. Re: Instrument calibration by iNaya · · Score: 1

      Yes, he's saying that the researcher is being judged. He himself is not making a judgment.

      --
      The Unicode standard is over 20 years old. Why does Slashdot not support it?
    4. Re: Instrument calibration by radiumsoup · · Score: 1

      inferring motive is not an observation.

    5. Re:Instrument calibration by Archangel+Michael · · Score: 1

      When insturment calibration is examined, both the unadjusted and adjusted values should be available as raw and "corrected" results. When the "raw" data is discarded, there is no ability to re-examine that data, and all we are left with is the "adjusted" data that is unproven. This is scientific heresy of the greatest kind.

      In other words, it isn't science if the adulterated results cannot be replicated for the original data, because it no longer exists. I mean it isn't like scientists to fudge data to get the results they were looking for ... ever. Never happens. Ever.

      --
      Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
    6. Re:Instrument calibration by Archangel+Michael · · Score: 1

      It is better to keep ALL data, good and bad, so that it can be examined later. Tossing data that doesn't fit preconceived ideas isn't science, it is religion.

      --
      Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
  37. Studies may not include all influential factors. by lbalbalba · · Score: 1

    If you are unable to reproduce the results of a certain study, it appears to me that there may just not be enough knowledge of all the factors that affect the end result. For example, if you study something believing the main factors that determine the outcome are 'A', 'B', and 'C', but do not have the insight (yet) that factor 'D' is also very influential, then factor 'D' may have value '1' for the original study but value '2' for the reproduction study, influencing the end result and resulting in the different outcomes. This does not mean that the 'scientific method' is incorrect, or that the research was 'fake' or 'sloppy'. It just means that more research is needed, to determine those missing factors that determine the results, leading to (more) accurate and reproducible studies.

  38. Re: Intellectual property by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    Yet another nail in the coffin for Intellectual property. Missionary_Church_of_Kopimism

  39. We especially don't trust climate science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Science has been infiltrated by assholes who are more in love with themselves that with science.

  40. Science is hard by backslashdot · · Score: 1

    A lot of times stuff is not replicatable (suck it spellchecker, i just invented the word) because it's fucking difficult. I mean I have spent thousands of dollars and even worse wasted many hours in the lab on getting something I thought should be straightforward, obvious, and simple to work. Sometimes you want things to work so badly, you might even see things (usually fluorescence) where there is none. It's like how Percival Lowell saw canals on Mars. As a scientist you have to fight hard against your own bias, and not take it personally when someone attacks your work. Biological systems are unreliable (or not easily modeled), it's not like a computer program where everything follows a known deterministic path. In biology, the conditions in which something happens may not be known. It may work in one lab because they are using a reagent with a trace contaminant of salt whereas in another it won't work because the conditions are too pure.

    So anyway, I reckon we have 3 reasons why studies are not reproducible (here they are in order of unethicalness/immorality):
    1. The actual conditions are not what the researcher thinks it is. (The reagent constituents are not normal for example).
    2. The researcher wants to believe a result so badly that they see an effect that doesn't exist. (Nowadays you have to photograph your results and/or use software, so this *should* get caught in peer review).
    3. The research was published due to pressure to get grants combined with confidence that a particular hypothesis is real and should work -- in spite of lab failure (which the researcher ignores, telling themselves somebody in their lab made a "pipetting error").

    Obviously, #3 is the most evil of the above. None of these are an excuse for publishing bad science. In terms of mitigating effects, #1 is the hardest to avoid. #3 should be very avoidable if you have scruples.

    1. Re:Science is hard by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      A lot of times stuff is not replicatable (suck it spellchecker, i just invented the word) because it's fucking difficult. I mean I have spent thousands of dollars and even worse wasted many hours in the lab on getting something I thought should be straightforward, obvious, and simple to work. Sometimes you want things to work so badly, you might even see things (usually fluorescence) where there is none. It's like how Percival Lowell saw canals on Mars. As a scientist you have to fight hard against your own bias, and not take it personally when someone attacks your work. Biological systems are unreliable (or not easily modeled), it's not like a computer program where everything follows a known deterministic path. In biology, the conditions in which something happens may not be known. It may work in one lab because they are using a reagent with a trace contaminant of salt whereas in another it won't work because the conditions are too pure.

      So anyway, I reckon we have 3 reasons why studies are not reproducible (here they are in order of unethicalness/immorality): 1. The actual conditions are not what the researcher thinks it is. (The reagent constituents are not normal for example). 2. The researcher wants to believe a result so badly that they see an effect that doesn't exist. (Nowadays you have to photograph your results and/or use software, so this *should* get caught in peer review). 3. The research was published due to pressure to get grants combined with confidence that a particular hypothesis is real and should work -- in spite of lab failure (which the researcher ignores, telling themselves somebody in their lab made a "pipetting error").

      Obviously, #3 is the most evil of the above. None of these are an excuse for publishing bad science. In terms of mitigating effects, #1 is the hardest to avoid. #3 should be very avoidable if you have scruples.

      Yeah in general, but "The research was published due to pressure to get grants" doesn't belong to #4 exclusively, it's a universal factor.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
  41. Have you read published papers? by bussdriver · · Score: 1

    Most published papers are so condensed with so many steps in the process brushed over it is not straight forward to actually recreate it. The devil is in the details is the apt description of the process of actually implementing something. Insignificant details which are not important in describing the concepts and results can be essential for implementation. Sometimes luck, skill and sometimes there is a bit of trial of and error which does not get described. Sure, there is an assumption of skill level but even so, it can waste plenty of time and introduce errors in the process. I'm not saying it should be like software; however, software always reproduces results (including the bugs.) To be fair, software runs on machines, not humans.

    Journals are no longer printed and distributed. We shouldn't be trying to condense so much to save space (still being concise is important.)

    I'm just bringing up another issue. Also, simplistic idiotic metrics applied to publishing does not promote quality work. Quantity is rewarded and how many times it is cited. This promotes vague conceptual work that is more broadly applicable.

    We should have well edited larger summaries; followed by longer more detailed procedures. Since almost nobody will recreate, the summaries will likely be used most and then a quick skimming of parts of the details... it's that skimming part that is probably why the details are condensed so much. Even two experts will differ slightly on how they condense the details... look at how much variation we have in textbooks describing in detail the SAME information.

  42. So, you're telling me.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    .. that America's Test Kitchen is more scientifically accurate than our laboratories?

  43. "Publish or Perish" breaks science. by Timothy2.0 · · Score: 1

    The commodification of science has crippled science, in my opinion. Scientists are forced to publish for a number of reasons; their publications are the basis for subscription services to various journal services, it helps establish their reputation in their corner of academia and contributes to padding their CV, etc. However, it's a horrificially broken idea.
    We should be promoting *robust* science, not just *prolific* authorship.

    I deal with peer review every day in my job, and it's not what people think it is. It's little more than a third party looking over a manuscript deciding that it looks sufficient to publish (i..e., no *glaring* errors that stand out). There's no fact-checking of equations, methodologies, etc. If any methodology geets through this phase without being confirmed, it's going to make it to publication and exacerbate the problem.

    However, this does open a market for robust academic experimentation, but at a certain financial and temporal cost: establish a journal where studies submitted *have* been replicated. Take peer review up a notch to *peer replication*.

  44. Wayward Ammo by CrtxReavr · · Score: 0

    Sadly, this will play right into the hands of the Trumpanzees.

    --
    "So is the BSD licence even more 'free' (than GPLv2)? Yes. Unquestionably." --Linus Torvalds (TinyURL.com/2vugzl)
  45. Except for climate science, that's settled by mpercy · · Score: 1

    and doesn't need no stinking experiments.

  46. Controlling Biology is the Problem by Yergle143 · · Score: 1

    "You didn't use the right technique" is the first excuse used by researchers when their results don't hold up.
    In Bio science this reproducibility problem is, at heart, a problem with having an experimental system that is under control, well defined and "stable".
    There are plenty of very precise measurements made that are not accurate because there is something about the experiment that is not under control.
    In biology, even if you do your best to account for statistical variation, it can often be the case that your results are bunk because there are things going on beyond your ken.
    This is a real problem, people are now taking it seriously. It has impacted on my life in science on numerous occasions. I don't start something based on others' work unless I've tested the underlying rationale.

    1. Re:Controlling Biology is the Problem by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      "You didn't use the right technique" is the first excuse used by researchers when their results don't hold up. In Bio science this reproducibility problem is, at heart, a problem with having an experimental system that is under control, well defined and "stable". There are plenty of very precise measurements made that are not accurate because there is something about the experiment that is not under control. In biology, even if you do your best to account for statistical variation, it can often be the case that your results are bunk because there are things going on beyond your ken. This is a real problem, people are now taking it seriously. It has impacted on my life in science on numerous occasions. I don't start something based on others' work unless I've tested the underlying rationale.

      It's not my field, but an article I read a while back identified that as a problem in r&d on electrical batteries; supposedly the presence of even minute contaminants can make huge differences, which leads to all sorts of headlines like "New battery promises breakthrough in efficiency" which can't be replicated when the initial batch of research grade chemicals runs out and is replaced with a new batch.

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
  47. What it's all about-- by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The infrared absorption of carbon dioxide is experimentally measured in the laboratory

    No one rational doubts this. That has never been what the climate change debate was about. .

    You're right. The climate change debate has never been about the measurements; it was never about the science in the first place. It has always been about fossil fuel companies working very effectively to spread uncertainty and doubt in order to protect their profits.

  48. Living in a sealed bubble of air by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That must be nice to know for people who live in sealed transparent tanks of air.

    On a global scale, of course, we do live in a sealed transparent tank of air, in which sunlight is the input energy source and infrared radiation is the output.

  49. observed phenomena by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 1

    Name one study offering a credible alternative explanation for observed phenomena.

    What observed phenomena?

    This, for a start: http://berkeleyearth.org/wp-co... . On the subject of replication, note that this image graphs results from four different research groups.

    Here is the fit of theory to experiment:
    http://berkeleyearth.org/wp-co...

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
    1. Re:observed phenomena by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That is not an experiment. Why are you using terms you do not understand to conclude a specific point without having the requisite knowledge?

    2. Re: observed phenomena by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not an experiment if it's not a white haired scientist pouring foaming liquid from one flask into another...

    3. Re:observed phenomena by gzuckier · · Score: 1

      Name one study offering a credible alternative explanation for observed phenomena.

      What observed phenomena?

      This, for a start: http://berkeleyearth.org/wp-co... . On the subject of replication, note that this image graphs results from four different research groups.

      Here is the fit of theory to experiment: http://berkeleyearth.org/wp-co...

      on behalf of all skeptics, i'll just say "the fit of that graph is not good enough to convince me!"

      --
      Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
    4. Re:observed phenomena by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 1

      Name one study offering a credible alternative explanation for observed phenomena.

      What observed phenomena?

      This, for a start: http://berkeleyearth.org/wp-co... . On the subject of replication, note that this image graphs results from four different research groups.

      Here is the fit of theory to experiment:
      http://berkeleyearth.org/wp-co...

      on behalf of all skeptics, i'll just say "the fit of that graph is not good enough to convince me!"

      The challenge was to put forth a credible alternate explanation.

      --
      http://www.geoffreylandis.com
  50. Opportunity Here by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There is an opportunity here for the "Journal of Reproduced Results" dedicated to research reports that attempted to duplicate the results reported in other Journals.

  51. 3 percent of scientists agree, by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    97 percent of scientists are bogus....

  52. My experience by Anonymous+Cow+Ward · · Score: 1

    Honestly? In my experience, this is more a result of materials sections in papers being incomplete than it is evidence of poor science. Oftentimes, procedures just aren't described in enough detail to repeat something unless you already know how to do it, and even then, small differences in the way you do things can add up. Journals need to raise the word limit on materials and methods sections, because those are usually too low.

    --
    Examine even your most deeply held beliefs. Nobody is always right.
  53. Impossible! by ElectricHellKnight · · Score: 1

    Are you suggesting that the scientific fields are just as full of political motivation, need for personal gain, fear of embarrassment, unwillingness to admit when wrong, and truth-stretching/outright lying as every other field of work in which humans take part? And that this means that the information that they come up with should not be trusted by default? Hogwash! It can't be so!

  54. ASA "Statement on p-Values" -- Feb 3, 2017 by jameson.burt2404 · · Score: 1
    The American Statistical Association Board of Directors published on February 3, 2017, the article ~~ "ASA Statement on Statistical Significance and P-Values"~~. They said things like ~~"P-values do not measure the probability that the studied hypothesis is true."~~ Most people think something different than the typical hypothesis test conclusion that must be stated OBSCURELY as "In the long run of such data collection, when the null hypothesis is true, only 5 percent of resulting tests reject the null hypothesis as being unlikely". The MOST IMPORTANT article on classical hypothesis testing was written by Ionnidis: Why Most Published Research Findings are False by John Ionnidis at PlosMedicine.org 2005 http://journals.plos.org/plosm... This Ionnidis paper gives a succinct formula for the probability a published relationship/effect is correct [not wrong], using the elsewhere used statistical term Positive Predictive Value (PPV). "After a research finding has been claimed based on achieving formal statistical significance, the post-study probability that it is true is the positive predictive value, PPV." PPV = (1 - beta) R / (R - beta * R + alpha) = 1 / [1 + alpha / (1 - beta) R) ] < 1 / [1 + alpha/R], since 1 - beta is in [0,1] < R / alpha = 20 * R, considering alpha = 0.05 for a hypothesis test where alpha = .05 usually -- the probability of a Type I error beta is the probability of a Type II error (1 - beta is the power ) R is the ratio of true relationships to no [false] relationships in that FIELD of tests You can also call R the pre-study odds. Writing R / (1+R) is the pre-study probability the relationship is true. You can call this the "Background Probability" of a true relationship. You can see that the PPV is small when a field's true relationships are even moderately unlikely. Here's a table showing the maximum probability a published paper detects a true relationship R PPV maximum
    ------------------
    0.5 0.91
    0.2 0.80

    0.1 0.67

    0.05 0.50

    0.01 0.16

    0.001 0.02

    1. Even when half a field's relationships are true, at most 91 percent of published results are true. When one-tenth of a field's relationships are true, at most 67 percent of published results are true. This is abysmal. And more, why even investigate a topic when true relationships are common. Hypothesis testing then becomes a petty activity. What the statistician can't set, and what is never mentioned -- the Background Probability -- is most important in most research! "PPV depends a lot on the pre-study odds (R). Thus, research findings are more likely true in confirmatory designs ... than in hypothesis-generating experiments." The problem becomes obvious when research seeks from 30,000 genes the (at most 30 genes) influencing a genetic disease, for which R = 30/30000 = 0.001 with a PPV about 0.02! When the Background Probability (so too R) is moderate, a design with moderate power (1 - beta) can get good PPV. But research often works in a field of previously unseen results, or uses data mining software (a good generator of false results), where R does equal 0.01 or even 0.001. In these many fields, the Background Probability (so too R) swamps any statistical design's alpha and beta. "Most research findings are false for most research designs and for most fields... A PPV EXCEEDING 50% IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO GET." Indeed, a look at the PPV formula shows that whatever alpha, even a power of 1 (a little thought reveals why more power hardly helps here) produces mostly false results if the pre-study odds R itself is less than alpha! "Claimed effect sizes are in fact the most accurate estimates of the net bias. It even follows that between 'null fields' [fields with no true relationships], the fields that claim stronger effects ... are simply those t
  55. Title quote error by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Its Most 'Scientists' Can't Replicate Studies By Their Peers

  56. Fail by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I was unable to reproduce the results from this study.

  57. observed phenomena by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Which part of the phrase "observed phenomena" are you having problems with? It's right there in the subject line, not to mention in the quoted text.

    Science is about making observations.

  58. Sensationalist and overblown by ragahast · · Score: 1

    Here's a more deeply thought-out perspective from a respected biologist (and one of my professors). He discusses a similar reproducibility study done at Amgen. It turns out that the several significant variables were altered in the "reproductions," and some of the experiments weren't successful for unrelated reasons (bad knockdowns). TFA covers a reproducibility study looking at just five papers in one narrow field - then uses this sample to draw broad conclusions about "science" in general. It's about as valid as similar articles making similar statements based on failed reproductions in psychology or sociology.

    --
    .:Semper Absurda:.
  59. Publish or perish is critical for science by ragahast · · Score: 1

    The notion that "publish or perish" hurts science is apparently widespread, but its misguided. Now, as a researcher, it's tempting to agree in the interest of making my life easier, but the truth is that the need to publish creates an environment in which there is both competition for excellence and a strong incentive to document and share results. The problem isn't "publish or perish" as such, but rather simple inadequacy of funding. Our competitive grant system was intended to fund around 30% of proposals, not the ~5% that receive funding today. We spend a total of just 2.7% of GDP on R&D (public and private), and the highest spender is South Korea at 4.3%. I think these amounts are shockingly low considering the benefits to society.

    The result is that instead of competition for excellence, we now have competition because there isn't enough to go around. That leads to an environment where excellence and reproducibility can fall by the wayside in the context of a desperate need for funding. If you think about it, it's clear that publications should be a requirement for continued funding. But every such statement about how science should be funded, and conducted, are predicated on a reasonable proportion of worthy projects receiving funding.

    --
    .:Semper Absurda:.
  60. Expectations by psinet · · Score: 0

    How much of this is related to the fact that the original researchers were pioneers in their field - experts? Either that or their 'discovery' would be of no note.

    What makes another scientist capable of exactly reproducing an extremely complicated set of dependent tasks? A set of instructions? Who is to say they can carry this out in the required identical manner?

    In reality, the ONLY thing that matters is that the original researcher can reliably recreate the results. The ability of someone ELSE to perform it is subject to far too many untraceable mistakes - not least of all the original discoverer's ability to write papers.

    Is this 'reproducability crisis' a result of the original author's error's, or partly to do with the uncertainty inherent with 'reproducing' a set of conditions and causes, accurately?

  61. Re: Parsing failure by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    I am not inferring the motive. I am saying that the person who is accusing the researcher of manipulating the data is also inferring the motive of that researcher is to suit nefarious ends.

  62. 100% Reproducible by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I did an experiment where I tried to reproduce the results of others' experiments.

    I found that I could not.

    Then, I did it again, and found I still could not.

    100% reproducible :)

  63. Where do you get data, and how precise is it? by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 1

    A question I have is whether you are actually interested, or if you merely pretending interest, Indeed, if you're actually interested, there is a lot of work being done in analyzing data and comparing data from different times, which is (as you imply) indeed not always trivial. And there is a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" problem for the people doing the actual work, of course, because if they don't correct the data errors, they're criticized for not correcting them, and if they do, they're criticize for "adjusting" the data. They deal with this by being very transparent in how they analyze the data, which is extensively documented.

    The first thing to know is not the sensitivity of the thermometer, though; it is the statistics of measurement. I do assume you're aware that a large number of measurements is more precise than a single measurement, right? So the first question you should be asking is, how many measurements are being incorporated into each statistical data point. Ten thousand measurements with a precision of 1 degree, for example, give an average with a precision of 0.01 degrees. Good introductions to statistics of data analysis are available many places, including on the web, for example:

    https://www.princeton.edu/~cap/AEESP_Statchap_Peters.pdf or somewhat more detailed,

    http://www-library.desy.de/preparch/books/vstatmp_engl.pdf

    Moving in to measurements: there are four main institutions that are doing the reconstruction of long-term temperature measurements; most of your questions about thermometry are answered by citations in the references of the papers they publish on their technique. It does take some work to dig down through the references, though. If you want to start, most of the recent papers are online. I would start with the Goddard Institute of Space Studies papers. The full list is here:

    https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov

    The two papers you should probably start with are Hansen and Lebedeff 1987,

    https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha00700d.html
    and Hansen et al 2010:

    https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha00510u.html

    If you don't want to dive that deep, there are some review papers that cover most of the material you're interested in. The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project has a couple of good top-level papers, with an overview:

    http://static.berkeleyearth.org/papers/Methods-GIGS-1-103.pdf
    and a paper on data quality:

    http://static.berkeleyearth.org/papers/Station-Quality.pdf

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
  64. Lab Measurement by Tenebrousedge · · Score: 1

    Not to judge, but it is somewhat funny that you're presenting this as a "Gotcha!" If you would stop pretending your ignorance is just as good as anyone else's knowledge then this will suddenly become a real discussion.

    So to answer your question, there are obviously things that happen on Earth which can't be easily replicated in a lab, but the problem is that the H2O-CO2 feedback ls so strong that we need a very large negative feedback to cancel it out. Some massive misunderstanding of the water cycle is pretty much all that would have saved us due to that, but as it happens we've looked at every known atmospheric phenomenon and ruled out any large negative feedbacks.

    Global warming is the default, natural reaction of an increase of atmospheric carbon, and we've spent the last 121 years trying to disprove it. We actually thought we had disproved it right up until the mid-1950s. Unfortunately for us all, this really is settled science. What will happen as a result of AGW is a more open question, especially as this will depend on what we choose to do about it, but you really can prove AGW in your basement. Tyndall did it in 1859, you should be able to significantly improve on his results.

    --
    Those who advocate genocide deserve every protection afforded by law, and none afforded by common human decency.
    1. Re:Lab Measurement by pipingguy · · Score: 1

      Good to see you're keeping the faith.

    2. Re:Lab Measurement by Tenebrousedge · · Score: 1

      Telling you to go measure something has nothing to do with faith. You lack an education. I'd be more than happy to explain to you in as much detail as you like the evidence and history of the science of Global Warming. I've read most of the original research papers, the IPCC, and any published contrarian works (Spencer, Curry, and that IRIS guy spring to mind).

      Calling the opposition zealots works for everything but science. In science empirical evidence is the only thing that matters. If you are not arguing against science with measurement (i.e. more science) your argument is invalid. Empiricism is the opposite of faith.

      --
      Those who advocate genocide deserve every protection afforded by law, and none afforded by common human decency.
    3. Re:Lab Measurement by pipingguy · · Score: 1

      Your commitment to the cause is noted.

    4. Re:Lab Measurement by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Your commitment to ignorance is noted.

  65. The goose and golden eggs by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You buy the goose. You subordinate the goose. You beat the goose, You rob the goose. You rape the goose. You pluck the goose. You kill and eat the goose. You replace the goose with people from an area where fake publications are standard. You wonder if the eggs are gold.

  66. Scientists can't reproduce their own work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    As the New Yorker put it, "The Truth Wears Off" (http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/12/13/the-truth-wears-off).
    It's called "effect decline" and it occurs even when scientists try to replicate their own experiments. I asked a friend, a medical researcher, to let me know if the article was describing a real phenomenon. At first he was quite defensive about the integrity of his chosen career. But upon further reflection, he begrudgingly admitted that effect decline was a problem with the scientific method _as practiced_ today.

  67. All it takes is $$$ by gzuckier · · Score: 1

    Sure, just let every researcher have an additional section in the budget for money for reproducing things before publication. Shouldn't be a problem, the man on the street absolutely loves science and is always bugging the government to spend more on it.

    --
    Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
  68. Re:And you wonder why?? by gzuckier · · Score: 1

    In fairness, if I found out that teh guvmnt was putting significant quantities of sugar in my water I'd be a little upset too. It would certainly make washing up more challenging.

    I'd bottle it and sell it.

    --
    Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
  69. Re:And you wonder why?? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Why do you have fluoride, glysophate, and mercury in your food and water? Hmm, wonder why these cucks do not want you to know thier science isn't science? its for money and agenda. Surprise!

    I was wondering if your post was just a very abridged communication by somebody with something to communicate until the word cuck appeared. Good indicator that it's really just a bunch of content-free verbal behavior using a bunch of shibboleths indicating your fealty to what you consider your tribe, which really none of us care about, thanks. And the word glysophate doesn't help.

  70. Poor Writing skills by pax+humana · · Score: 1
    Let us not forget that, in general, scientists and engineers are not good writers. For most of us, writing the paper is up there with securing funding (which also includes writing) as Things I Would Rather Avoid. Like, "I would rather let that rottweiler rip my pubes out than write this paper" avoidance. (Code writers, think "help file documentation".) We are not great writers.

    Many years a Los Alamos physicist [Reader] told me of reading a peer reviewed paper. The author used the phrase "it follows with a little math that..." This research was right up Reader's alley. It took him over a week to solve it. IIRC, it required a transformation to a non-orthogonal space. Reader cursed the author and his progeny to the 4th generation. When they met again at a conference, Reader told Author, "Oh yeah, I worked through your paper. You used a simple transformation."

  71. On the other hand by gzuckier · · Score: 1

    There have been numerous cases of scientific discoveries which were reproduced by many investigators and whole scientific models developed which turned out to be entirely imaginary. N-rays are a terrific and lesser known example, but there's also the maps of the Martian Canals, cold fusion, polywater, in addition to the classic fields, still extensively researched vi the scientific method with full faith in the hypothetical reproducibility, such as homeopathy, ESP, magnetic medical therapy, wearing-copper medical therapy, dowsing, witchcraft/spellcasting, ghost/spirit/seances, UFOs, spinal surgery, etc.

    --
    Star Trek transporters are just 3d printers.
  72. hurr durr by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You're confused because you're a dumbass. If you had just said "AGW" like I know you wanted to instead of Galileo, then you would have had the republitard talking point trifecta!

    1. Re:hurr durr by Dread_ed · · Score: 1

      The reason I referenced Galileo was specific. If you remember (I bet you don't because of how full of talking points, unground axes, and shoulder chips your phrasing is) Galileo was "persecuted" not only by the religious power structure of the time, but also by sycophantic "scientists" looking to curry favor with the pope and the power structure in Rome.

      Draw what conclusions you want with current events, the underlying principle is what I was pointing to. You can see it is a constant in human behavior. It is still happening today.

      --
      When the only tool you have is a claw hammer every problem starts to look like the back of someone's skull.
  73. you dont wanna talk you wanna be right by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I don't want to hear that bullshit from you. You're one of the worst on here for shouting down opposing viewpoints. Let's get a talk about politics, gayness, abortions, or the existence of god going and you'll crank your derp amplifier up to 11.