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Americans Believe Robots Will Take Everyone Else's Job, But Theirs Will Be Safe, Study Says (cnbc.com)

An anonymous reader shares a CNBC report: You may accept, by now, that robots will take over lots of jobs currently held by human workers. But you probably believe they won't be taking yours. Though other industries are in danger, your position is safe. That's according to a report released by LivePerson, a cloud-based messaging company which surveyed 2,000 U.S.-based consumers online in January. Their researchers find that only three percent of respondents say they experience fear about losing their job to a robot once a week. By contrast, more than 40 percent of respondents never worry about it. And a whopping 65 percent of respondents either strongly or somewhat agree that other industries will suffer because of automation, but theirs will be fine.

364 comments

  1. My job... by Narcocide · · Score: 5, Funny

    Was already taken by Indians. They can have fun fighting the robots for it I guess. It sucked anyway. Good riddance.

    1. Re:My job... by TWX · · Score: 4, Informative

      The Indians are chosen because they're currently less expensive than the robots, accounting for the total lifecycle of the robots through all of their various duties down the road.

      When the robots are cheaper than the Indians, it's not going to be a matter of a fight, it's going to be saying so-long to the Indians.

      --
      Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
    2. Re:My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The ironic thing, on the IT front, if you don't automate, you get automated. I had some contractors (H-1Bs), whose jobs I wound up making completely obsolete. One guy was a "DBA" and he was supposed to get a TPS report in front of managers every so often. I made a script that did a query (using a good where clause so I didn't grind the RDBMS box to a halt), did some basic UNIX text munging, dumped it to PDF, then had the PDF E-mailed, so it was on sitting in the inbox of all the CxOs. They expected each report to take many man-hours. It became a task that just ran when needed via cron.

      The problem with the contracting H-1B brigades is that they are great at marching in lock-step. Get them in to do code, they will crank it out in record time. Ask them to figure out if they are better using nginx, Apache, or IIS for a web project, they will throw the question back in your face with a deer in headlights look.

    3. Re:My job... by s1d3track3D · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Was already taken by Indians.

      I'm so tired of hearing comments like this, nothing was taken! If Asians are now doing the job you used to do it's because it was given to them willingly by US corporate decision makers!
      All this backlash over immigrants ruining America is crap, we have done this ourselves, the 1% needs to keep its revenue growth high and has no problem sacrificing your welfare to do it.

    4. Re:My job... by gnick · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'm so tired of hearing comments like this, nothing was taken!

      It's not hard to figure out what he meant - He was replaced by Indians. There's a negligible difference between "took my job" and "took over the job I was doing in spite of my protest". Do you also object to the headline, as robots aren't "taking" jobs, they're just being given jobs that used to belong to humans?

      --
      He's getting rather old, but he's a good mouse.
    5. Re:My job... by Altrag · · Score: 2

      Indians were chosen because they speak English (albeit with a fairly extreme accent in some cases) and people revolted massively against automated phone systems when companies first tried to roll those out. We still have a strong distaste against even simple directory services if they decide to make the recordings too long or the menus too detailed (and we also hate when they're not detailed enough since we don't always know exactly what terminology they're using for what we need.)

      And of course India's other famous outsourcing target: software development. We're a long way from replacing knowledge workers with robots on any sort of large scale unless Cyberdyne has been keeping to them selves too much again.

      Though we've been seeing a return of those jobs to the US since it turns out replacing skilled workers with a third party company (no matter where they're located) that has no care or investment in your future and tends to use the cheapest (ie: worst) local labor they can find turns out not to produce the best software. To borrow a meme from the MBA world, the total cost of development ends up far outstripping the up front savings.

      Not saying those jobs won't eventually be taken over by robots, but they're a lot further off than say, replacing fast food outlets with vending machines that cook your burger exactly right 100% of the time with zero chance of it being spit in.

      China, Mexico, and much of the local service industry are probably going to be the first to suffer as mindless, repetitive tasks such as those that get done in factories and burger joints and whatnot are far easier to automate than tasks which require critical thought and planning.

    6. Re:My job... by s1d3track3D · · Score: 1

      Do you also object to the headline, as robots aren't "taking" jobs, they're just being given jobs that used to belong to humans?

      Fair enough. I'm probably overreacting based on the current nationalist attitude in the US. Maybe once angry displaced workers start attacking and killing robots I'll have the same reaction.

    7. Re:My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Was already taken by Indians.

      Did you work for climate studies, specializing on ice age predictions?

    8. Re: My job... by plate_o_shrimp · · Score: 1

      I'll step and say, yes, from his perspective something absolutely was taken. He had a job and it was taken from him. However I agree with the statement that it was not the that took his job from him, it was his own bosses, managers, and company. So yes it is very much "us" doing this to ourselves.

      It doesn't matter though because, as I have frequently been told, if our jobs get taken all we need to do is simply to get different ones. Problem solved! Why didn't I think of that?

      --
      This sig has exceed its monthly bandwidth allotment.
    9. Re:My job... by myth24601 · · Score: 1

      Was already taken by Indians. They can have fun fighting the robots for it I guess. It sucked anyway. Good riddance.

      They will go on the war path!

      --
      No matter where you go, there you are.
    10. Re:My job... by TWX · · Score: 1

      Your mentioning China reminded me about their manufacturing and how it relates to their pollution problems.

      Manufacturing, especially rote, repeat-times-millions large batch manufacturing is always a perfect role to use robots instead of humans. The first reason China became attractive for manufacturing is the labor costs for unskilled or only moderately skilled workers on assembly lines versus just about everywhere in the West. Second reason, a general lack of rules governing emissions, pollution, and contamination compared to the West. Third reason, very little in the way of overhead due to workplace safety or general safety process rules.

      Lately though, China has become painfully aware of both the pollution problems and of the safety problems (remembering that huge port explosion a couple years back as a case in point) and if China works to make inroads for those, and if manufacturers continue to look for ways to reduce the number of workers for a given product, eventually there could come a tipping point where those manufacturers leave China. Where they go will be tough to predict; they might find some second-world or third-world country that lacks environmental or worker protections, or they might look at the costs of doing business in those kinds of places and the costs to ship and actually bring some production, albeit heavily automated, back to their own domestic shores. After all, if it costs $10 to produce a thing in China and $1 to ship it, and if it costs $11 to produce that same thing locally, then there's no reason to bother producing in China anymore.

      We'll just have to see.

      --
      Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
    11. Re:My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How do you move back to your country when the companies that formed your supply chain died a decade before?

    12. Re:My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Indians were chosen because they speak English (albeit with a fairly extreme accent in some cases) and people revolted massively against automated phone systems when companies first tried to roll those out. We still have a strong distaste against even simple directory services if they decide to make the recordings too long or the menus too detailed (and we also hate when they're not detailed enough since we don't always know exactly what terminology they're using for what we need.)

      There are ways to make phone menus work without needing people and without needing to speak to the computer (I hate that by the way).

      1.) Make the system actually work - route the calls where they are supposed to actually go rather than fail over to un-related departments. If I want to speak to business support, don't send me to residential support only to have them transfer me back to business.
      2.) If you ask for my account number via automated system, make sure the person answering the call gets that information so I don't have to give it again.
      3.) Publish the phone menu tree on the company website. Do not hide it - just put it on the contact page. This way, I know to hit 1, 3, 3, 2, 7 without having to listen to each sub-menu.
      4.) The system it should be responsive enough that I can dial it like an extension without having to wait for the system to que the greeting before I dial the next option.

      On the other hand, many businesses have an interest in making things difficult - it is not a technical limitation. Rather, it is a business decision that expresses itself as a technical problem to a caller. Support is a cost center so making it frustrating enough that callers give up saves money just as long as it isn't too frustrating so as to cause the loss of a customer.

    13. Re:My job... by Baloroth · · Score: 1

      Maybe once angry displaced workers start attacking and killing robots I'll have the same reaction.

      Waaaay to late on that score. The legend goes, the term "sabotage" comes from workers in the Industrial Revolution throwing their wooden shoes (called "sabots") into the machines which were replacing them.

      --
      "None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license." --John Milton
    14. Re:My job... by lucasnate1 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      we have done this ourselves, the 1% needs to keep its revenue growth high and has no problem sacrificing your welfare to do it.

      No, it's not "we" who have done this to ourselves' it's the 1% who has done this to us. The 1% don't see you as part of their "we", and as long as you will see yourself as part of their "we", you will be playing straight into their hands.

    15. Re:My job... by Rob+Riggs · · Score: 1

      So that's what the Beastie Boys were on about... killing robots.

      --
      the growth in cynicism and rebellion has not been without cause
    16. Re:My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      China is already too expensive for new manufacturing. Salaries have risen dramatically, their one-child policy has finally hit their prime working-age demographic, and the demand of workers has finally exceeded their supply. New manufacturing has moved to Vietnam, Malaysia, and possibly African countries in the near future.

      In the long term, companies will stop racing towards the bottom as general purpose robots are developed. It will to a race to develop and mass produce them first.

    17. Re:My job... by s1d3track3D · · Score: 1

      Waaaay to late on that score. The legend goes, the term "sabotage" comes from workers in the Industrial Revolution throwing their wooden shoes (called "sabots") into the machines which were replacing them.

      I think the next line of job replacing robots will be made to look like Megan Fox or (whoever) to help curb that.

    18. Re:My job... by Camel+Pilot · · Score: 1

      I'm so tired of hearing comments like this, nothing was taken! If Asians are now doing the job you used to do it's because it was given to them willingly by US corporate decision makers!

      No it was given to Indians because they could do the same job for lower costs. If you are running a business you look for ways to optimize - not engage in social justice engineering.

      Why do 1st world workers feel an overbearing sense of entitlement that they deserve special privileges?

    19. Re:My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Please. Who exactly are the 1%? If you live in the U.S. the chances are you are a member of the 1%. Average global wage per year is $1,480. If you make more than $140,000 you are a member of the 1%. If you make more than $50,000 you're still in the top 2.5%.
      So basically stop your whining.

    20. Re:My job... by fluffernutter · · Score: 1

      You're saying there was a DBA in you're environment whose entire job was sending one report, and it was a surprise that his job was easily scripted?

      --
      Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
    21. Re:My job... by fluffernutter · · Score: 1

      Because we are not allowed to buy consumer goods at Indian prices. If this were truly fair, fine, Indian employees are cheaper and lets hire them. But they can be hired for cheaper because cost of living is lower in their country. So if my salary is going down because they are being allowed in freely then I should also expect to be able to go to a grocery store and see India prices. Otherwise I'm basically being priced out of my own economy.

      --
      Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
    22. Re:My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Stop being pedantic. Nobody actually thinks immigrants are forcing companies to hire them. Everyone knows that "my job was taken by an immigrant" means that the company you work for replaced you with an immigrant.

    23. Re:My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Their" manufacturing?

      Here's the thing. You're talking about prices in dollars. Not Yuan.

      So... it's not their manufacturing. It's yours. It's being done for you (whereas hundreds of millions of 'them' can't afford it)

    24. Re:My job... by LifesABeach · · Score: 1

      The product generated by this DBA is not rellivent. One should start considering when 300 million people are unemployed.

    25. Re:My job... by LifesABeach · · Score: 1

      eagle express?

    26. Re:My job... by TWX · · Score: 1

      How did they move to China in the first place?

      --
      Do not look into laser with remaining eye.
    27. Re:My job... by s1d3track3D · · Score: 2

      Why do 1st world workers feel an overbearing sense of entitlement that they deserve special privileges?

      Yes, as fluffernutter said and because we already proven the unfettered capitalism will eat itself.
      "Capitalism may be the best economic system ever devised, but one of its drawbacks is that it provides financial incentives to harm and even kill people." - https://www.nytimes.com/2016/0...

    28. Re: My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You realise this can't happen - if the entire workforce were unemployed where would sales come from? This will only ever happen if society decides it is a good idea to pay people without work (UBI). Otherwise automation will only ever be disruptive at a similar rate to new job creation.

    29. Re:My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      you're dumb

    30. Re:My job... by FatdogHaiku · · Score: 1

      Do you also object to the headline, as robots aren't "taking" jobs, they're just being given jobs that used to belong to humans?

      Fair enough. I'm probably overreacting based on the current nationalist attitude in the US. Maybe once angry displaced workers start attacking and killing robots I'll have the same reaction.

      When the came for the Middle Easterners, I said nothing.
      When the came for the Latinos, I said nothing.
      When the came for the Robots, I said "Their hiding behind that big dumpster over there!"*.
      *Hey! How did I know they were here to give them plasma weapons and all terrain treads?

      --
      You have the right to remain sentient. If you give up the right to remain sentient, you will be elected to public office
    31. Re:My job... by rtb61 · · Score: 1

      When the robots are cheaper than, working in poverty labour and warehousing and transport costs and warehouse. Cheapest robot to date 3D printers and they are getting cheaper and better by the day. So when will you be able to make a 3D printer, with a 3D printer, hmm (technically more than one ie plastics and metals). I buy my printer and I can fire most of the corporations I have to deal with. Hmm make my own solar panels ;D. So how far off are protein printers, print my own food, more fired corporations.

      Forget firing workers, we will be able to fire entire corporations and their worthless executive teams and investors, bwa hah hah (looks like we get the last laugh).

      --
      Chaos - everything, everywhere, everywhen
    32. Re: My job... by backslashdot · · Score: 1

      Robots will only create more jobs for humans. We can get robots to build everyone houses in the deserts, in the oceans. On Mars, and maybe even a Jupiter moon. There will be jobs in all those places even if it's research, design, or something you can't think of.

    33. Re: My job... by Ost99 · · Score: 1

      This must be the most naive thing I have ever read.

      The mechanics of the free market drives automation, and is not equipped to correct for externalities like the level of unemployment that will be the end result of said automation.

      --
      ---- Sig. gone.
    34. Re: My job... by currently_awake · · Score: 1

      Every year the list of jobs the robots can do gets longer, and the list of jobs only humans can do gets shorter. Eventually all the jobs will be on the robot list, and humans will be unemployable.

    35. Re:My job... by currently_awake · · Score: 2

      Once we have recycling food replicators we can live anywhere. No power grid, no government services, no civilization outside our little house. Put everything in an airtight box and you can live in a self contained habitat in the asteroid belt. The food replicator that recycles our waste is the ONLY missing piece.

    36. Re:My job... by FatdogHaiku · · Score: 1

      Sorry...
      They're

      --
      You have the right to remain sentient. If you give up the right to remain sentient, you will be elected to public office
    37. Re: My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Citation?

    38. Re: My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Women work for less to do the exact same thing as men, men can now work for less to do the exact same thing as the machine.

    39. Re:My job... by Evtim · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Oh yhea? Man, I feel so privileged to be in the top 2.5%! BTW, the poor bastard in say, Kazakhstan, does he pay 1000 Euro per month just for a place to live? How expensive is the kindergarten there [here it is 900 euro per month]? What about insurance?

      Is the above enough to give you a hint how incredibly wrong you are? Try to continue on your own from here....

    40. Re:My job... by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Because american workers don't have unlimited rights to immigrate to india.
      Because the cost of living here is much higher. A person will starve to death on the same salary that would be excellent in india.

      Now, IF capitalism were allowed to work and we could buy products from india at the prices indian consumers pay- that would help a lot. But we have artificial laws preventing that.

      Flatly ILLEGAL web sites offer the same drugs for sale from india at under 1/4th the cost the same drugs are sold in the U.S.

      Microsoft charges U.S. citizens over $1,000 for the same products they give away free to indians.

      It's a short term problem. It's going to resolve itself and indians are going to experience tremendous inflation while u.s. workers stagnate until automation wipes them both out.

      And then it will be very stark. Some people will have money and the majority of everyone else in the world will have no way to trade their labor for money ,food, lodging. And at that point, the mass market collapses.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    41. Re: My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And you're a fucking moron. Try to keep up.

    42. Re: My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "How did they move to China in the first place?"

      Western and Japanese companies found a 3rd party manufacturing partner, and did a technology transfer (explicit or implicitly). Then, the original contracting entity went under. The IP is now trapped.

    43. Re: My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Now, IF capitalism were allowed to work and we could buy products from india at the prices indian consumers pay- that would help a lot. But we have artificial laws preventing that."

      How, exactly, would that work? You do realise that your salary would in practice drop as a result, also?

    44. Re: My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh my. Visit India and you will think so differently about what is poor.

    45. Re: My job... by dougdonovan · · Score: 1

      the country of india...you know, the ones we can't understand on the phone so we make them leave a vm which we delete and wait for alphabet named emails to communicate have needless to say made themselves at home in the US. india is the only country that trump has not named program the robots that have taken our jobs because they work for cheap with their masters degrees. the worlds largest software corporation called microsoft had to find someone to take gates place...

    46. Re: My job... by ArmoredDragon · · Score: 1

      Well, let's think this over for at least one second:

      If nobody has any money to buy anything, then who is going to buy this stuff that we're creating automatically? Obviously you can't have both, so a correction has to happen somewhere. And yes, free markets tend to be very self correcting.

      In fact, we just had a minor market correction last year that primarily impacted the tech sector, and we'll probably have another big one either this year or next that will lead to the next recession.

    47. Re:My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because the 1st world infrastructure and stability that these companies enjoy were paid from the hard work of people from THIS COUNTRY. They owe this country.

    48. Re: My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      UB I is not optimal. Need planatations that grow food, for instance. Package plain. On line history of product url on the box.

    49. Re: My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Everyone gets card to get the food. N monetmy. No rules. But your card can get cancelled for misuse for money. So not an entitlement.

      Education beyond self instruction is also free. If you demonstrate you are worth it. So not an entitlement. Etc. The idea of money is a bit of a limit on some people.

    50. Re:My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Doesn't it also depend on the model: leasing versus buying? Slavery versus wage-slavery? Xerox versus the market?

      Indians aren't cheaper, just more versatile. When the robots get better (not cheaper) the Indians will be thrown onto the scrap heap. The robot can work 24/7 (that's like TWO Indians). They don't get tired towards the end of the day and instead of replacing a broken one with a new one, you just replace the broken parts. And when newer, better models come along, you sell the old ones to the Third World.

      What I'm wondering is where the CUSTOMERS are going to come from?

    51. Re:My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This reminds me of the workers at Tyson Chicken, who were replaced by cheaper Central Americans. Who did the white, working-class, American workers blame? Where did they direct their anger? Of course - the poor brown people. Why? Because Mr. Tyson is a good ol' boy who loves BBQ and goes to church. Americans worship their bosses, and are losing everything as a result.

    52. Re:My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Was already taken by Indians. They can have fun fighting the robots for it I guess. It sucked anyway. Good riddance.

      They will go on the war path!

      How!

    53. Re:My job... by Radiophobic · · Score: 1

      Do you also object to the headline, as robots aren't "taking" jobs, they're just being given jobs that used to belong to humans?

      That's actually what's happening though. In a free market environment, you can't really get angry at the competition for being able to provide a similar service at a reduced price. Consumers will go where they are able to get the best product at the best price. Currently the cheapest/best product is being made by people in Asia, eventually it will be robots. If you don't want to get priced out of the market, make a better product, or a significantly cheaper one, or have your government regulate the industry so that it's too expensive to buy products that are made in Asia/Robotland.

    54. Re:My job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's so stupid that you attempt to reduce this to a class-warfare issue. That's both incorrect - and pointless anyway.
      When you bought a lawnmower, you stopped cutting each blade of grass with a scythe. Are you one of the 1%, by putting scythe manufacturers out of work?
      When you local grocer decided to use a printer to print shelf labels instead of getting their illiterate staff to hand-write "tomatoe's", was that the action of the 1%.
      Of course not.
      Civilisation progresses only by increased productivity. We don't want to live in caves.

  2. Well yeah by Ryanrule · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I program the robots.

    1. Re: Well yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I make robots that program other robots.

    2. Re:Well yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And why in the world does that mean your job is safe?

      Eventually, robots will program themselves. Your job is not safe.

    3. Re: Well yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Just like Bernard Lowe I presume?

    4. Re:Well yeah by MightyYar · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Here's the thing: it doesn't matter.

      If robots can take my job, then they will take my job. Sure, you can push for some local protectionism. Maybe even slow things down so that the transition happens after I retire or die. But at the end of the day, some society somewhere in the world will go with the more competitive option and my job will be history. Avoiding technical progress is working great for the Amish, but not everyone is so lucky to be ensconced by a benevolent, protective society.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    5. Re:Well yeah by wagnerrp · · Score: 1

      And why in the world does that mean your job is safe?

      Eventually, robots will program themselves...

      ... and when that happens, we're all out of a job.

    6. Re: Well yeah by slazzy · · Score: 1

      Robots will become cheaper, grow our food, build our houses drive us to do whatever work is left to do. Then the cost of food, housing will drop significantly. Life will change but it will go on.

      --
      Website Just Down For Me? Find out
    7. Re:Well yeah by sjames · · Score: 3, Insightful

      That's why we need a safety net that makes it more or less OK if robots take your job.

      Don't forget that they can even indirectly take your job or at least cut into your pay. Imagine if robots take 25% of the jobs out there. Some small fraction of those people will then be applying for your job, and they'll probably be cheaper than you.

    8. Re:Well yeah by ghoul · · Score: 1

      I program Bugs into robots. Greater job security. Robots who try to fix robots cannot even imagine deliberate bugs.

      --
      **Life is too short to be serious**
    9. Re: Well yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      the cost of food, housing will drop significantly

      The reality is that the price will drop for the manufacturer/producer. Your cost to purchase will remain the same. More profit to be given to the execs.

    10. Re: Well yeah by MitchDev · · Score: 1

      With no job and no income, unless "cheaper" = Zero, then it won't make any difference....

    11. Re:Well yeah by MightyYar · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I have no problem with a safety net in principle. The thing is, humans have a knack for being douchebags ^h^h^h^h^h^h^h^h^h^h using systems for a purpose other than designed, resulting in an outcome that is other than desired. Unless the desired outcome is long-term total government dependence, safety nets need to be very carefully designed and implemented.

      In case you can't pick up on it, I definitely do not favor government dependence. People seem to be depressed as hell when they are dependent. In a few cases, we see where dependence leads to total helplessness in the face of government failure, like in Katrina. Ghettos are also nice little teapots of dependence and misery.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    12. Re:Well yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      According to Buck Rogers in the 25th Century the multiple generations of super-AI that started with an advanced AI designing its own successor will be happy to oversee major systems (like entire space stations or small nations) and direct humans and lesser robots to resolve issues that arise. Since no human or human-crafted system is intelligent enough to evaluate their decisions, humans will have the simple choice of "trust them" or "don't trust them" and the "trust them" faction will be more successful in every way.

    13. Re: Well yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well don't worry the AI will come up with a great safety net I'm sure. They are even replacing policy makers in the future so I'm told.

    14. Re: Well yeah by Altrag · · Score: 2

      The cost won't be zero of course, but with enough automation it could drop to the point where its close enough.

      Assuming we can actually make robots smart enough to do all of this, there's pretty much two possibilities:
      - Utopian: Robots do everything for us, we just sit back and relax and do whatever interests us because money is a non-concept when you essentially have an entire planet of (hopefully not conscious) slaves to do all of the work.

      - Dystopian: Basically the above, but the robots remain strictly in control of the elites (or themselves) and the unwashed masses effectively become the slaves.

      Many many books, movies and TV shows have started out with what appears to be the utopian version but, for some reason or other (usually the greed of some elite) is shown to actually be the dystopian version of the future.

      Sadly the movies are probably wrong in that there likely won't ever be a utopian period -- at least not for the majority of the planet. Even when money is a non-issue, the elites of our world tend to like retaining control over those of us who weren't lucky enough to be born into money or create the perfect business at exactly the right time in history.

    15. Re:Well yeah by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Did you ever read Animal Farm? The douchebag that took advantage of the system was one of the least "evil" characters. And, had surprisingly little dependence on the government. Odd how so many who hate socialism can't grasp that basic idea, put forth 50+ years ago, and shown basically correct ever since.

    16. Re:Well yeah by citylivin · · Score: 3, Informative

      "In case you can't pick up on it, I definitely do not favor government dependence. People seem to be depressed as hell when they are dependent."

      I used to feel that way till i went on government provided 9 month paternity leave which is the norm in canada. I worried about not working for about the first month, but by the end of it I was really used to walking in the parks with my son in the stroller and generally experiencing the wonder of life with him.

      Of course i think it does depend on why you are dependant. In my view, i earned that paternity leave (been paying into EI for 20 years and never went on unemployment...) and spending time with my son is the most important way i could be spending my time.

      A guaranteed basic income I think I could easily view as my right, same as i should have a right to healthcare, safety, fire protection and the other things the government provides.

      --
      As a potential lottery winner, I totally support tax cuts for the wealthy
    17. Re:Well yeah by sjames · · Score: 1

      That's actually a good argument for the Universal Basic Income. No punishment for seeking independent income, no way to cheat for it since every citizen is entitled to it.

      Part of the depression of government dependence is probably related to various bureaucrats lording it over you and the knowledge that if you manage to make a bit of money independently, you could lose all support and end up on the street.

    18. Re: Well yeah by Kierthos · · Score: 1

      Don't count on that.

      Let's say robots end up planting, tending, and harvesting all our crops. Crop prices will not drop to some amazingly cheap level, because there will still be the inherent costs of seeds, fertilizer and irrigation, as well as the costs of transporting the crops to market.

      Then add in the power and maintenance costs of the robots.

      Then add in any overhead I missed.

      Then add in the profit margin for the corporation who owns the farm and robots.

      --
      Mr. Hu is not a ninja.
    19. Re: Well yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      From the sound of it, you've certainly never read it.

    20. Re:Well yeah by Kazoo+the+Clown · · Score: 1

      Robots may be cheaper, but they will put themselves out of business-- because they don't buy stuff...

    21. Re:Well yeah by Rob+Riggs · · Score: 1

      In Soviet Russia... the robots program you.

      --
      the growth in cynicism and rebellion has not been without cause
    22. Re: Well yeah by rfengr · · Score: 1

      Possibly, but food has become cheaper already due to automation over the last 100 years. Who says it won't just get cheaper?

    23. Re:Well yeah by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Exactly what do you mean by "dependence"? It would be depressing to have to constantly worry if some bureaucrat's decision was going to mess up my life if I did something a little bit wrong or unexpected. Having an assured income from any source would be much less of a problem. I know some people who are on Social Security disability and it doesn't control their lives or make them depressed. The same is true of the people on Social Security old age pensions: they know what's coming in, and it doesn't bother them.

      The US welfare system is designed to kick people off welfare when given an excuse, so most people on it are insecure. (It also provides medical coverage that vanishes when someone leaves the system, meaning that many single parents simply can't afford to go from welfare to a low-paying job.) A UBI with medical coverage would be secure, and I don't think people would be depressed on it.

      I'm not quite sure what you mean by total helplessness in the face of a major devastating hurricane. That's the sort of thing that we have government for.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    24. Re:Well yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In case you can't pick up on it, I definitely do not favor government dependence.

      You're already dependent on the government, it's just a matter of degree. The government provides roads, without which modern life would be impossible. Most places, the government provides water & sewage, allowing modern sanitation. Many places it provides fire service, prevent your house from burning down. It ensures food safety. In some countries it ensures the availability of medical care. It, to some degree, protects against crime, invasion and insurrection, and provides a response if those do happen.

      People don't get depressed because they depend on the government. People with untreated mental health problems are less likely to hold a job, and therefore more likely to end up on welfare. And our society equates worth with work, and that affects people. People need (to find for themselves) a purpose, not independence from the government.

    25. Re: Well yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Are you a robot?

    26. Re: Well yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      Yes.

      Capcha: recursive

    27. Re:Well yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually, humans do not have a "knack for being douchebags", nor for abusing social welfare systems - specifically not in the US. Or rather, perhaps they have a knack in terms of the mental ability, but they don't have the propensity for it. Welfare is, on the whole, not abused, in the US or anywhere else. People find it quite important to have socially-useful, productive life, and it takes quite some abuse and mis-education to change that.

      As for dependence - I tend to agree with you in the sense that there should be more community inter-dependence rather than government dependence; the thing is, that doesn't sit well with Capitalist relations of production and distribution, and having to perform a lot of wage labor to sustain yourself materially.

      Finally, ghettos are sort of government-and-capital-engineered open-air prisons. If ghetto dwellers had more access (and more effective access) to social resources - not through the government, but on their own and in their environment and through collaborative interaction - they would probably un-ghettoize their ghettos.

    28. Re:Well yeah by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      I think we largely agree, though we'd probably spend a lot of time on the details. With that said:

      they would probably un-ghettoize their ghettos.

      I actually suspect that a lot of people would move to where opportunity was. People stick around in places where opportunity once existed in large part due to the government subsidies being available. If there was no government welfare, I suspect Detroit would have been largely abandoned once the industry fled. I disagree that capitalism produces ghettos... raw capitalism produces shanty towns - poor urban centers that spring up organically as people pursue opportunity. These are not ideal, either, but they are a separate problem from the modern US urban ghetto where most of the people have no opportunity and are dependent on government assistance. I also recognize that the US has a historical problem with race and ghettos are historically associated with the oppression of blacks - much of our current situation does indeed stem from that, but I believe one contribution to their persistence in modern times is government assistance.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    29. Re:Well yeah by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      You're already dependent on the government, it's just a matter of degree.

      I completely agree. With that said, the acid test is what will happen to you if the government disappears for a day... a week... a month? If the answer is "I'll die" or "I'll beg on the street", then you probably meet the standard that I'm talking about. Yeah, we all use government roads. But the fact is that if the government took a month-long nap, we'd still use the roads and local bands of us would even make short term repairs. If the government stopped running the sewers, it would be a major public health problem in the long term, but in the short term people would dump bed pans into the street sewers like they did for hundreds of years. I'm talking about a totally different level of dependence, and one that is incredibly demoralizing.

      People don't get depressed because they depend on the government. People with untreated mental health problems are less likely to hold a job, and therefore more likely to end up on welfare. And our society equates worth with work, and that affects people. People need (to find for themselves) a purpose, not independence from the government.

      That does not square with studies showing that people living in formerly prosperous middle class areas suffering mental health problems after the jobs disappear. I agree that correlation does not equal causation, but I don't think you are giving enough weight to the effects of stress on mental health.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    30. Re:Well yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ... using systems for a purpose other than designed.

      When the desired outputs are changed, the actual inputs will change. This is why defining a job through metrics rarely works: Easy measurements miss the complexity of the tasks performed (particularly for knowledge-based jobs), meaning the actual input is making people work harder with the same shitty tools.

      ... be depressed as hell when they are dependent.

      As '6 unpleasant truths' reveals, you are your job in this society: You may want to be more than that, you may be allowed to be more than that but mostly, your value to society is linked to your ability to exchange your time for wealth. Women get an exception because of pregnancy. The rest of us are ridiculed for being unemployed or doing 'soft' jobs like helping children in the neighbourhood or the extended family. A Basic Income makes everybody equal and encourages people to do what holds their interest, not whatever puts money in their hand. Robots will soon be digging trenches anyway, so businesses won't have to pay higher wages for menial jobs.

      In addition, most entertainment has to be hired from someone else, this means people earning poverty wages have few rewards to disrupt their 'ordinary' time. Unemployment becomes more monotonous than work since there isn't a break in routine (eg. going home, or on holiday). It's also worse because humans need to be kept busy, or have 'structured time', a consequence of our greater stamina; something that separates us from other mammals. If there are parks and beaches available, that provides space for recreation. Volunteer organisations, sporting clubs and family can provide a sense of structure and achievement. The best answer is still working for reward, that is, employment but employment that does not consume 8 hours a day. 55 years ago, people were predicting the 15-hour working week; they may finally be correct.

    31. Re: Well yeah by Pfhorrest · · Score: 1

      Worse, the unwashed masses wouldn't become slaves in the dystopian scenario, because you only feed and shelter slaves to keep them alive to work for you. When robots displace humans, the robot-owners no longer need humans, and won't feed or shelter them and they will just die. Either of starvation or exposure, or from robotic machine-gun fire trying to overthrow the system.

      Also, I would break it down to more like four scenarios:

      - The dystopian one where the elites own the robots and have no need for anyone else and everyone else dies. The good news is, this scenario ends up utopian when, after everyone else is dead, 100% of the surviving humans live in robot-waited bliss for all eternity.

      - The slightly less dystopian one where for some reason, the elites who own the robots keep everyone alive, but at their pleasure, making everyone forever perpetually beholden to them. There is some chance that this could transition to a utopian scenario as well, if generations down the line the robot-owning elites who have never wanted for anything see no reason not to just have their robots give other people free robots because why not, it's not like it costs them anything.

      - The still only slightly less dystopian one where, before the robot-owning elites can fortify themselves behind a wall of killbots, a popular uprising uses the power of the state to seize the robots for the common good. Now there aren't robot-owning elite overlords... just the robot-owning government upon which everyone is now dependent. So pretty much the same as the previous scenario in the end.

      - The nigh-impossible utopian scenario where by some means or another wealth with which to purchase privately owned robots is widely distributed enough that everyone just retired into robot-waited bliss together, without facing dependency on either the robot-owning government or some private robot-owning elites or else death by robot or by starvation or exposure.

      The last is obviously the best, but I don't have high hopes for it. The one of the middle options seems most likely to me. And I can just hope that the possibility those have for a gradual transition to a utopia, for future generations at least, comes to pass. Otherwise, it might in the end be better if the first, worst dystopia happens, since at least it would get all the survivors on to their utopia faster, and not leave the vast majority of humanity enslaved for all of eternity.

      I guess at least anyone can decide to default to that first option for themselves at any time by charging face first into a killbot.

      --
      -Forrest Cameranesi, Geek of all Trades
      "I am Sam. Sam I am. I do not like trolls, flames, or spam."
    32. Re: Well yeah by Pfhorrest · · Score: 1

      Actually, I just had a spot of hope after rereading this just now:

      It only takes one robot-owning elite with his unlimited robot-supplied resources to decide that he'd like to give everyone free robots, and bam, utopia for everyone. So long as not 100% of the eventual robot-owning elites are complete heartless monsters, it's utopia for everyone. Hurray!

      --
      -Forrest Cameranesi, Geek of all Trades
      "I am Sam. Sam I am. I do not like trolls, flames, or spam."
    33. Re:Well yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You know what else makes people depressed as hell? Not having a job or a home. And government dependence is only one form of dependency. There are certainly worse things to be dependent on than the government.

    34. Re:Well yeah by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      I don't follow the logic. If no one is buying stuff, then it is true that the robots aren't needed. But if people are buying stuff, then the cheapest way to do it would be the robots, so they would be used. They may or may not "put themselves out of business", but there's still no room for humans.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    35. Re:Well yeah by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      I just donated to a charity that is trying UBI in Africa. I would love to see it implemented on a large scale in a randomized trial here in the US. As promising as the concept is, though, I remain very skeptical until we have better data.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    36. Re:Well yeah by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      I think a temporary benefit is entirely different than a permanent dependence on government for your meals and housing.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    37. Re: Well yeah by compro01 · · Score: 1

      What you've thought of is basically the second half of Manna.

      --
      upon the advice of my lawyer, i have no sig at this time
    38. Re: Well yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And I provide them with power, communication, and repair. I'll be long dead before any robot can take my job, at least until C3P0 (a version with joints that actually bend) is a reality.

    39. Re: Well yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm a turtle. Eventually once you get past everything else.... indians, robots, programmer of robots and programmer of robots that program other robots.....it'll be me all the way down.

    40. Re: Well yeah by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      The cats took advantage of the system. The pigs took over the system. That you can't tell the difference doesn't mean I can't.

    41. Re:Well yeah by dunkelfalke · · Score: 1

      Dude, I have news for you. The depression is caused by the people having just the bare minimum to live and not by their dependence on the government. Independent people who are piss-poor aren't really happy as well. Why do you think Russia had not one, but two revolutions in a single year a century ago? Hint: the government welfare was not the reason, mostly due to its absence.

      --
      "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
    42. Re:Well yeah by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I program the robots.

      that make the WHOLE world sing!!!!

    43. Re:Well yeah by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      That argument only works if you have a very naive, binary view of the world. The fact is there are an almost infinite number of different ways the government can help the poor, and we don't need to be having a discussion along the lines of for/against but rather a discussion about the goals and methods.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    44. Re:Well yeah by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      OK, so lets make it our collective goal to put in place the conditions where people can grow from "having just the bare minimum" to living more comfortably. As a long-term solution, government dependence isn't going to get you there.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  3. Govt beuracracy by Gilgaron · · Score: 1

    Thankfully government rules mean someone has to validate all that automation! Although so far what we've done has been more to ensure we can perform work at a competitive price and timetable rather than actually have fewer staff.

    1. Re:Govt beuracracy by ghoul · · Score: 1

      As robots do more of the productive work we have three options - the ot of work workers eventually revolt and kill the robot owners and destroy the robots, the unemployed get employed in govt as robot safety inspectors, the robot owners are taxed at a very high rate and the amount is used to provide Basic income to most people so they can either work on something which interests them but doesnt pay or they can play video games all day.
      Currently we seem to be going down the path of option 2 but I like option 3 better. Of course if we are really unlucky it could go option 1.

      --
      **Life is too short to be serious**
    2. Re: Govt beuracracy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Take a lesson from history - how many jobs today existed 10 years ago? A hundred years ago? You failed to mention what happens and has happened throughout history as jobs are destroyed due to efficiency and automation - new ones are created. We don't need a UBI.

  4. Stupid, stupid questions by Nutria · · Score: 2

    I'm concerned that my job will be lost to... Indians, automation and age discrimination. However, in no way shape or form do I "experience fear about losing their job to a robot once a week."

    --
    "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    1. Re:Stupid, stupid questions by RavenLrD20k · · Score: 1

      I came here to say exactly this. I have no illusions that my job as it is right now couldn't be automated. As a matter of fact, I'm personally and actively trying to automate as much of it as I possibly can. I'm sure it's going to happen at some point, so why worry about it. In the mean time I'll just be playing 3D chess and biding my time as the world makes its moves.

    2. Re:Stupid, stupid questions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm concerned that my job will be lost to... Indians, automation and age discrimination.

      I'm not concerned about any of those things because I don't concern myself with absurdities such as the concept of "my job".

      In what way is the job that you are paid to do "yours"? Can you do what you like with it? Can you expect it to be returned to you if it is "taken" without your permission?

    3. Re:Stupid, stupid questions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't concern myself with equivocation and semantic hair-splitting.

      I DO concern myself with ensuring that I can have a safe and fun life now and into the future. Jobs are part of that, and you know it.

    4. Re:Stupid, stupid questions by skids · · Score: 1

      in no way shape or form do I "experience fear about losing their job to a robot once a week"

      Yeah the survey should of included a response of "I hope my job gets taken over by robots, screw this job!"

    5. Re: Stupid, stupid questions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This just in! Polls are fucking stupid. How do they even know the people being surveyed aren't just flat out lying to them? They don't but the bigger issue is they don't even care. You know what an average is? Something you don't see in the real world. You can find people in the median and many more in the mode but the mean hardly applies to anyone. Yet we're all lead to believe mean = mode and that's just unfair.

    6. Re:Stupid, stupid questions by vux984 · · Score: 1

      This. Exactly this.

      Nobody experiences fear weekly about losing their job to a robot" unless they are mentally unstable, or they are literally in the midst of an automation wave in their own company and they are watching coworkers get let go.

      Hell... even the cashiers at mcdonalds or the grocery store who are literally watching them install self-serve checkouts a few feet away don't worry weekly about losing their jobs to robots.

    7. Re:Stupid, stupid questions by tsqr · · Score: 1

      my: of, belonging to, or associated with the speaker or writer (me).

      That "my job" means "the thing I do to earn money", and not "a piece of personal property" is understood by everyone with the possible exception of you; I suspect that you understand it as well but are just acting like an idiot for reasons that aren't entirely clear.

    8. Re:Stupid, stupid questions by tsqr · · Score: 1

      I'm concerned that my job will be lost to... Indians, automation and age discrimination. However, in no way shape or form do I "experience fear about losing their job to a robot once a week."

      Same here. I'm pretty sure that if it happens, I'll only lose my job to a robot once rather than 52 times per year.

    9. Re:Stupid, stupid questions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I don't concern myself with equivocation and semantic hair-splitting.

      I DO concern myself with ensuring that I can have a safe and fun life now and into the future. Jobs are part of that, and you know it.

      On the contrary, "jobs" are antithetical to fun.

      Safety has always been an illusion.

    10. Re:Stupid, stupid questions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      my: of, belonging to, or associated with the speaker or writer (me).

      That "my job" means "the thing I do to earn money", and not "a piece of personal property" is understood by everyone with the possible exception of you; I suspect that you understand it as well but are just acting like an idiot for reasons that aren't entirely clear.

      Oh dear, I have upset you. Ever wonder what else about the world is beyond your ability to see clearly?

  5. Not exactly take, but augment by SuperKendall · · Score: 2

    Yes technology will get rid of a lot of jobs.

    But it has been doing that for a long, time time. Some jobs go away. But made possible are new jobs that would not be possible without the forward march of technology... there will always be work for people who seek to do something in life.

    In a lot of cases technology may not even completely take over jobs, but allow a person to be much more effective, or for fewer people to do the same job as had been done before.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In a lot of cases technology may not even completely take over jobs, but allow a person to be much more effective, or for fewer people to do the same job as had been done before.

      If fewer people are being paid to do the same job, technology has taken over jobs.

    2. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by Archangel+Michael · · Score: 1

      I would suggest that find work that robots can't do, because that is the value you have. There are things robots suck at, like being truly creative. Maybe one day, they will be creative.

      "Resembles Butterfly" - Johnny5 "Short Circuit"

      --
      Agent K: A *person* is smart. People are dumb, stupid, panicky animals, and you know it.
    3. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

      See, now, your head is on straight. We are not going to find ourselves living in a world where billions of people have no job and no means of supporting themselves and surviving. It won't be allowed to happen because if it does then that means there will be a War to End All Wars, and the governments of the world won't sit back and let that happen. There will be other jobs. There will not be so-called 'Universal Basic Income', though, as some people (who are very bad at math) claim; there will be meaningful work for people to do so they can support themselves and contribute to society. Anyone who claims otherwise is either suffering from extreme myopia, or is trolling.

    4. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And yet, it's still providing net positive jobs. Far more people are employed today than were employed prior to the industrial revolution. Some day that will change, but we're not there yet.

    5. Re: Not exactly take, but augment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Your short sighted arrogance has been noted.

    6. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      These other jobs you and others talk about. Short of there being a law saying they couldn't be done by robots, why wouldn't they be done by robots like all the other jobs that were replaced?

    7. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by g01d4 · · Score: 1

      What's different this time is that new jobs require fewer people than are being displaced from their old jobs. And that's compounded by constantly adding more people. While work may be "something to do in life" a job is work you can make a decent living at.

    8. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >technology has been getting rid of jobs for a long, time time
      Labor was shifted.
      Labor will become extinct.

      One of those has been happening for a long, time time.
      One of those has never happened. Civilization will be blindsided.

    9. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by Altrag · · Score: 1

      or for fewer people to do the same job as had been done before

      Also known as taking over jobs. 3 people replaced by 1 person and a robot means 2 peoples' jobs have been taken over even if the overall task still has one person left.

      I agree that we'll almost certainly adapt and invent new jobs that robots are unsuited for, but its going to be a long slow ugly process. Its been what? Over 20 years since the auto makers started moving factories to Mexico? And much of Michigan and other states involved in car production are still reeling from the blow.

      Certainly that's pretty much only a generation which is a drop in the bucket of history, but if its looking like the next big job exodus, whether to offshoring or automatic, is going to affect your line of work in your generation.. that's a rather scary concept.

      When we say "people" will find new areas of employment, we usually mean "kids that grow up in the changed world," rather than "people who currently have those jobs and soon no longer will." Its a lot easier to train kids than it is to re-train adults. Those adults and their families are the ones who suffer while the world changes around them.

    10. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by AK+Marc · · Score: 2

      So if Roomba gets 10 janitors fired, and 100 new robotic maintenance people are hired elsewhere, we should count that as a job loss, and fear and hate technology.

    11. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Duh! But the amount of new jobs lost is much less than the number of now jobs gained. You're a perfect example of a stupid mother fucker that simply can't see more than a few centimeters in front of their own face. Even your job faces extinction. You're just too ignorant and simple minded to see the writing on the wall.

    12. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's dumb, you'll only have a few maintenance guys covering a large area with a couple more people employed at the shop.

    13. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      If it takes 100 robotic maintenance people, then the Roombas won't be cheaper and the Janitors won't be fired.

      A far more plausible scenario is 100 janitors fired and 10 new robotic maintenance people. Because then the Roombas are sufficiently cheaper.

      And that is more-or-less what happened when we mechanized agriculture - a whole lot of farm hands were replaced by tractors and a small number of tractor mechanics. At the time, those former farm-hands got jobs in the brand-new factories and we got the industrial revolution.

      The problem with this time is there is no job left for the displaced humans. A truly general-purpose AI and advanced robotics would be able to do any job. Including designing, building and maintaining robots.

    14. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Anyone who claims otherwise is either suffering from extreme myopia, or is trolling.

      Such an argument. There can be no legitimate reasons to disagree with you?

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    15. Re: Not exactly take, but augment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If 10 robots replace 100 factory workers how does that mean more jobs are created than lost? Compound that with the fact that some people are just not able to be educated or perform complex tasks (thus all the current factory workers). Looks like you're the dumb motherfscker.

    16. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by rubycodez · · Score: 1

      it most certainly can be allowed to happen, war is one way humans reallocate resources. politicians have waged unthinkable wars before, politicians have engaged in genocide. Everyone's job may well be to be a soldier the normal state of affairs is for most to be expendable peasants under a tiny elite. The elite don't care if they rule billions or remaining millions, so long as they're ruling.

    17. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That is one part of the equation. One important thing that has changed during recent decades is a huge shift in activity from processing physical things to processing information. A huge portion of the human consumers of that information seem to be spending practically all their spare time on it. As information is extremely cheap to reproduce nowadays the supply is immense, while the demand does not seem to have much room to grow, there are only 24 hours in a day to spend on it. You can't do two things like watching movies and playing games in parallel without missing most of both.

      So if more and more of the production of both physical stuff and information is getting automated, where are you going to find the consumers for what those new jobs produce? You are competing for the consumer's time with an awful lot of others. I think that will be a limiting factor.

    18. Re: Not exactly take, but augment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Speaking of Michigan, notice how they never passed the savings onto the consumer?

    19. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      It's not about what's likely. It's about not lying about what's happening.

      Is a deferred hire, because of increased efficiency, when nobody was fired or laid off, a "replaced person"?

      No human uses those words that way, unless they are pushing an agenda. A replaced person is a human who was hired to do a job, then was fired. Theoretical job losses through shrinkage shouldn't count.

    20. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      there will always be work for people who seek to do something in life.

      The thing you don't seem to grasp is that that won't always be the case. Not paid work, certainly.

      It is inevitable that at some point robots and computer programs will be able to do every single job humans can do, and do it better. It seems like that point will be some time this century, it is hard to say when, it may not be for 60-odd years, but it will happen. And what then?

      It will happen because there really isn't anything special about humans, nothing that is impossible to replicate with machines, because that is all we are, biological machines.

    21. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

      Nope. :-) Do the basic math: The money doesn't exist for so-called 'UBI' no matter what you do. It's a fantasy being perpetuated by people who are bad at basic math.

    22. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

      Congratulations, YOU understand the situation. :-) Likewise you probably understand that there won't be any 'doomsday' scenario because no country will allow it to happen. Survival is a basic human right. 'Profits' are not.

    23. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      Is a deferred hire, because of increased efficiency, when nobody was fired or laid off, a "replaced person"?

      It's not deferred when they will never be hired. It's also not a deferred hire when they are laid off.

      No human uses those words that way

      I'd argue the problem is no human other than you has this particular definition of "deferred".

    24. Re:Not exactly take, but augment by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Currently, a UBI would be possible to set up. It wouldn't be a high UBI, but we do spend a lot of money on transfer payments. It's politically impossible in the US currently, but we could do it. Add up what we're currently spending on welfare, Social Security, food stamps, etc., and it's a good chunk of what we'd need. We could adjust the tax structure to pay for it, e.g. raising my taxes more than what's necessary to recover my UBI (I'm better off than most). It would be a big change to the economy, but it isn't impossible.

      However, even if a UBI were impossible, that doesn't mean there would be meaningful work for people to do, to the point that everyone who wants can get a real job. That's very definitely in question even in the near future.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  6. American believe... by The+Grim+Reefer · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Americans also believe that everyone one in Congress is a lying, cheating, worthless waste of oxygen, except for their own congressman. (s)he's doing a fantastic job and needs to be kept in office for the rest of their natural life.

    Hey, that gives me an idea. We should replace all congressmen with robots. Except mine, of course.

    1. Re:American believe... by HornWumpus · · Score: 3, Insightful

      No we don't. I live in CA, we have the _worst_ most corrupt senators in the nation.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    2. Re:American believe... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Most people I know hate their own representatives too. They just get whipped into a frenzy each election season and go out to vote against the person they've been coerced to hate the most.

    3. Re:American believe... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Nope, that would be Mitch McConnel who puts party over country and whose PAC appears to have taken 2 million dollars from Russian Oilmen.

    4. Re:American believe... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Um, my congressman is a RINO; I have no love for him at all.

      Use "American do/think/believe...." less. You don't know what you're talking about.

    5. Re:American believe... by The+Grim+Reefer · · Score: 3, Insightful

      No we don't. I live in CA, we have the _worst_ most corrupt senators in the nation.

      Nancy Pelosi has been in congress since 1987, Darrel Issa since 2003, Maxine Waters 1991, Dianne Feinstein 1992, Barbara Boxer was in the Senate from 1993 until 2017.Dana Rohrabacher, 1989, Ken Calvert, Anna Eshoo, Lucille Roybal-Allard, Ed Royce have all been in their current office since 1993.They may be corrupt, but they keep getting reelected.

      It's not really much different anywhere else though. Robert Byrd in West Virginia served 51 years. He was even a member of the KKK while in office at one point. Strom Thurmond of South Carolina was in office just shy of 50 years. He still holds the record for the longest filibuster, which was in opposition of civil rights legislation. He was well known for fondling women as well. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts was in for 46 years. After the incident with Mary Jo Kopechne, not only did he avoid any charges, he was also reelected.

    6. Re:American believe... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    7. Re:American believe... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Alabama - home of only cheep booze is in state owned stores that close at 6, and don't you dare buy some alcohol on Sunday before noon.
      Medical Marijuana was approved to go before congress and blocked by the old fart that handles scheduling of bills because "Alabama just isn't ready for it". He's not my congress person though.
      Oh, and let's not forget the Good Ole AG and his anti-progress view points.

    8. Re:American believe... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Found the Republican.

      Hey, remember when you guys pushed to have a nonpartisan council redraw district lines and you ended up losing a lot of seats, just like we said you would?

      Yeah, your judgment aint' too great.

    9. Re: American believe... by plate_o_shrimp · · Score: 1

      I live in NC and would challenge your claim.....

      --
      This sig has exceed its monthly bandwidth allotment.
    10. Re:American believe... by HornWumpus · · Score: 0

      The 'non-partisan' redistricting in CA is partisan, just like in every other state. Democrats run this state and have for decades. Nothing republicans want, gets done here.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    11. Re: American believe... by plate_o_shrimp · · Score: 1

      Amending my comment above I will admit Mitch's awfulness... errrrr.... trumps.... any awfulness we have in NC

      --
      This sig has exceed its monthly bandwidth allotment.
    12. Re:American believe... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nothing the Republicans want gets done? Like that's bad thing? I kind of appreciate clean air & water. Oh! And my civil rights too.

    13. Re:American believe... by Chris+Walker · · Score: 2

      Yes, and as a native Californian, I like it that way. The Republicans can go wreck somewhere else.

    14. Re:American believe... by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      There are people in Congress that I admire and who I think are doing a good job. As it happens, my Representative and Senators are among those right now.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    15. Re:American believe... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No we don't. I live in CA, we have the _worst_ most corrupt senators in the nation.

      And yet, CA keeps re-electing their senators, like pretty much everywhere. You're in the minority with your assessment of your own senators.

    16. Re: American believe... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My congress critter sucks. I wrote a letter regarding net neutrality and that she shouldn't support the inverted corporately corrupted version of it and received a form letter thanking me for my support of net neutrality.

    17. Re:American believe... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Mine isn't a doing a fantastic job, but she's not as bad as the bastards running against him.

    18. Re:American believe... by The+Grim+Reefer · · Score: 1

      Use "American do/think/believe...." less. You don't know what you're talking about.

      That's strange, according to this poll I do.

    19. Re:American believe... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They may be corrupt, but they keep getting reelected.

      Makes sense really, to be "the most" of anything takes a lot of practice. You'd hardly expect the "most corrupt" to be new to the game. ;)

    20. Re:American believe... by candysim · · Score: 1

      This is one of the cult game now, a lot of people enjoy playing them . Also you can refer to the game : animal jam 2 | five nights at freddys 2 | hotmail login

  7. Get the media presses ready by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    We need more fear, otherwise it would be difficult to introduce the robot tax.

  8. Who robots the robots? by TimothyHollins · · Score: 1

    I'm a robot, so I'm pretty sure I'm safe.

    1. Re:Who robots the robots? by painandgreed · · Score: 1

      I'm a robot, so I'm pretty sure I'm safe.

      Eventually, you'll be replaced and it will be better to do you a favour and disconnect you. You could be reworked, but you'd never be top of the line again.

  9. Not My Job by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    My job will just be eliminated because it's worthless. There's no money to be made by having a robot take it over.

    Somehow I don't feel any better after typing that...

    1. Re:Not My Job by Black+Parrot · · Score: 1

      My job will just be eliminated because it's worthless. There's no money to be made by having a robot take it over.

      Besides... no robot would have my crappy job!

      --
      Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
  10. I don't worry... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1, Insightful

    If a robot ever replace my IT support job, I would have already moved on to something else. The days of spending 50 years in the same job to collect a pension and gold watch are long gone.

    1. Re:I don't worry... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You have been doing support for decades. You are at a time in life where most successful IT people begin to retire. You are your counterpoint, except there is no gold watch and pension.

      You should be worrying.

    2. Re:I don't worry... by ghoul · · Score: 1

      Yes. They are replaced with 70 years of working at a series of 3 year jobs with no scope of a retirement and you dying while at work. With salaries no longer supporting living and saving for retirement at the same time and job breaks eating up savings and emergency funds retirement is obsolete. Unless you want to move to India in your old age and live on Social Security (India has cheap healthcare which is the main cost for old people)

      --
      **Life is too short to be serious**
    3. Re:I don't worry... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As long as companies buy over priced broken down shit from Oracle and every other big vendor out there, which then in turn requires some fairly smart people, even down to the helpdesk level to deal with, fix, and make work for end user. We aint going no where anytime soon.

    4. Re:I don't worry... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      You have been doing support for decades.

      My technical career started 20+ years ago. I've been doing IT support for the last 12 years or so.

      You are at a time in life where most successful IT people begin to retire.

      I'm only 47-years-old. I still have another 30 years before I retire and another 43 years before I die at 120-years-old.

      You are your counterpoint, except there is no gold watch and pension.

      My current government IT job gives me a month off each year, and I got extra month of pay as a Christmas bonus last year.

      You should be worrying.

      Only people who don't plan for the future need to worry.

    5. Re:I don't worry... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Better hope that job lasts. You do not want to hit the market at 50+. You might be the greatest programmer in the world, but if you won't "culture fit" with the 20 year olds, you'll stay unemployed.

      Intelligent people move into management in their 30s-40s (or, even better, have saved enough money that they can retire at 50 and do hobby projects)

    6. Re:I don't worry... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm only 47-years-old. I still have another 30 years before I retire and another 43 years before I die at 120-years-old.

      Retire at 77 in IT? I don't think so. You'll be long gone before then. Government will send you packing for good in your late 50s or early 60s.

      And no chance you will live to 120 claiming government benefits for 43+ years.

    7. Re:I don't worry... by erice · · Score: 1

      If a robot ever replace my IT support job, I would have already moved on to something else. The days of spending 50 years in the same job to collect a pension and gold watch are long gone.

      It isn't just the job you have that is at risk of being replaced by automation. It is also the jobs that you would move to. Further, if the trend is accelerating then the time between becoming adequately trained to do a job and when it becomes unavailable due to automation. At some point, this period may shrink to zero or even negative (The job disappears before you can obtain the skills necessary to perform it)

    8. Re:I don't worry... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      Better hope that job lasts.

      I'm halfway through a fully funded five-year contract. Once I get my InfoSec certifications, I'll be looking for a new job.

      You do not want to hit the market at 50+.

      I'm the second youngest on my team. Most of my coworkers are in their 60's and 70's.

      You might be the greatest programmer in the world, but if you won't "culture fit" with the 20 year olds, you'll stay unemployed.

      I'm not a programmer per se. I may have an associate degree in programming but I don't do that for a living. I do IT support work for the enterprise environment.

      You might be the greatest programmer in the world, but if you won't "culture fit" with the 20 year olds, you'll stay unemployed.

      The last time I worked with 20 year olds was when I was a video game tester for six years. Even then I was "over the hill" for that job by being in my early 30's.

      Intelligent people move into management in their 30s-40s (or, even better, have saved enough money that they can retire at 50 and do hobby projects)

      Intelligent people have multiple streams of income in addition to their current job, and have plenty of options to fall back on.

    9. Re:I don't worry... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      Government will send you packing for good in your late 50s or early 60s.

      I work in government IT. Most of my coworkers are in their 60's and 70's. Unless Microsoft delivers on all the promises for SCCM 2016, they're not planning to retire any time soon.

      And no chance you will live to 120 claiming government benefits for 43+ years.

      I'm not planning on Social Security being available when I retire. The Wall Street Journal had an article that people who planned to live longer are less likely to outlive their retirement savings even if they live to be 115-years-old.

      http://blogs.wsj.com/experts/2017/02/17/the-people-least-concerned-about-outliving-their-savings-may-be-most-at-risk-financially/

    10. Re:I don't worry... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      It isn't just the job you have that is at risk of being replaced by automation. It is also the jobs that you would move to.

      Most of the jobs I've done for the last 20+ years haven't existed when I was a kid in the 1970's. You can't automate jobs that don't yet exist.

    11. Re:I don't worry... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Most of my coworkers are in their 60's and 70's."

      Sad that you don't realize your situation is an outlier.

      "I do IT support work"

      Yikes. I REALLY hope you don't you lose your job.

    12. Re:I don't worry... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      Sad that you don't realize your situation is an outlier.

      My entire life is an outlier. When God hands out lemons, most people suck it down with salt and tequila. I make lemonade.

      Yikes. I REALLY hope you don't you lose your job.

      Why would I lose my job? The five-year contract is fully funded. After I get my InfoSec certifications, I'll have a different job.

    13. Re:I don't worry... by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      You can't automate jobs that don't yet exist.

      Sure you can. That's one of the main points of developing a general-purpose AI. Just as adaptable as a human brain, but without the messy and expensive biological needs.

    14. Re:I don't worry... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      That's one of the main points of developing a general-purpose AI.

      That's what I read in the 1980's.

      Just as adaptable as a human brain, but without the messy and expensive biological needs.

      I guess you're never read "The Two Faces of Tomorrow" by James P. Hogan. ;)

      Raymond Dyer's project had developed the first genuinely self-aware artificial intelligence that could learn and change its own programming to meet unanticipated problems. But could the AI—code-named Spartacus—be trusted to obey its makers And if it went rogue, could it be shut down As an acid test, Spartacus was put in charge of a space station and programmed with a survival instinct. Dyer and his team had the job of seeing how far the computer would go to defend itself when they tried to pull the plug. Dyer didn't expect any serious problems to arise in the experiment.

      http://www.baen.com/the-two-faces-of-tomorrow.html

    15. Re: I don't worry... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I keep hearing that retirement is dead... so what will you be doing at 80? Working? 90? 100?

    16. Re: I don't worry... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      I keep hearing that retirement is dead... so what will you be doing at 80? Working? 90? 100?

      I'll be self-employed. Doing what I'm not sure yet.

    17. Re:I don't worry... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Intelligent people have multiple streams of income in addition to their current job, and have plenty of options to fall back on.

      Honest question, how would a person who has no assets (but does have a job) get their foot in the door to income they don't have to work for?

    18. Re:I don't worry... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      Honest question, how would a person who has no assets (but does have a job) get their foot in the door to income they don't have to work for?

    19. Re: I don't worry... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Watson learned to be a doctor in 10 minutes and a better one than humans. And that was just a test.

    20. Re: I don't worry... by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      Watson learned to be a doctor in 10 minutes and a better one than humans. And that was just a test.

      Not when you have Sherlock Holmes as a friend.

  11. I build and program the robots by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'll be fine for a long while :) when robots can do my job, well, we're all hosed :)

  12. Fat Change by subk · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I would definitely put myself in that category that strongly disagrees. There may be robots that can do physical tasks in factories, and software "robots" that automate broadcast playout are a thing.. But the idea that a bipedal robot is going to be able to drive my work truck out to a remote & off-road site and go inside to replace a 9000 volt vacuum or climb up the 1800ft tower to find a loose hanger or air leak is almost as perposterous as the idea that we won't be using high power transmitters anymore. It just ain't gonna happen... And that's exactly why I left the datacenter to find a job like this one which requires hands-on skills.

    --
    Now, if you'll excuse me, I have backups to corrupt.
    1. Re:Fat Change by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I would definitely put myself in that category that strongly disagrees. There may be robots that can do physical tasks in factories, and software "robots" that automate broadcast playout are a thing.. But the idea that a bipedal robot is going to be able to drive my work truck out to a remote & off-road site and go inside to replace a 9000 volt vacuum or climb up the 1800ft tower to find a loose hanger or air leak is almost as perposterous as the idea that we won't be using high power transmitters anymore. It just ain't gonna happen... And that's exactly why I left the datacenter to find a job like this one which requires hands-on skills.

      All of these things are already happening, e.g. in the Texas oil fields. Not by bi-pedal robots, obviously, but by technologies that are designed expressly to reduce the need for bi-peds of any kind in the field. The systems you are maintaining were designed to be maintained in person by a skilled human. Industries are working hard to phase them out in favor of systems that can be installed by as few people as possible and managed all but entirely by remote desk-jockeys.

      Its not that there will be robots walking around with your breadth of experience, intuition and dexterity. Its that industry is phasing out the need for all of those qualities.

    2. Re:Fat Change by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Install a robotic arm on a gantry with access to on-site spares to replace that vacuum (tube?). Replacing climbing a tower to perform inspection with sending up a autonomous helicopter.

      How much of our infrastructure is designed in the way it is to allow for bipedal humans to access and maintain it? What if we started designing for something different?

    3. Re:Fat Change by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not going to "go out there" like you. It'll already be there. It'll live there doing nothing until it's needed. You, on the other hand, have to sleep and demand stuff like having a life outside of your function to the business.

    4. Re:Fat Change by MobyDisk · · Score: 2

      But the idea that a bipedal robot is going to be able to drive my work truck out to a remote & off-road site and go inside to replace a 9000 volt vacuum or climb up the 1800ft tower to find a loose hanger or air leak is almost as perposterous as the idea that we won't be using high power transmitters anymore. It just ain't gonna happen... And that's exactly why I left the datacenter to find a job like this one which requires hands-on skills.

      There is a flaw in your vision of the future, let me explain:

      If you watch old sci-fi, a dishwasher was a device with hands that poured soap onto dishes and scrubbed them. People imagined a clothes washer picked up the clothes and rubbed them against a washboard. Automated sci-fi planes had bipedal robots that sat in cockpits, automated sci-fi soldiers carried guns made for human hands. But we now know that this isn't how automation works. I work for a company that builds medical robots, and they do not look like people either.

      At some point, some guy probably said "No robot will ever be able to unload these boxes from a truck, and take all the mixed-up samples from the box, stick on the barcode labels, look at each one to see if the liquid is right and if the caps are tight, carry it over to the centrifuge, and put the vials onto the vortexer, etc. That's crazy!" Well that guy doesn't have a job any more. We kinda joke that one day a microbiology lab will be a 5,000 square foot building with no human beings in it at all. That was considered skilled labor 10 years ago. Contrary to expectations, the cleaning staff will probably be the last ones to get replaced.

      So lets look at your job:
      * Drives truck: Already automated. (Tesla, etc.)
      * Diagnose which part is broken: Somewhat automated.
      * Orders appropriate part: Already automated. (Current project I'm on)
      * Climbs up tower and replaces part: ehhhh...you win.

      You have me on that last one. Replacing parts still requires a human. For now...

    5. Re:Fat Change by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why do you think there should be a biped that climbs up a tower? That seems like an incredibly inefficient use of resources. It takes a long time to climb, there's physical hazard involved, and structures need to accommodate a person. It's way more likely that in a decade or so, that tower will just have a robotic arm running up and down on a rail. Maybe it still needs a human operator, but assuming failures are infrequent that's one operator sitting in an air conditioned office, controlling the repair machines at every transmission tower in a state.

    6. Re:Fat Change by citylivin · · Score: 2

      "* Climbs up tower and replaces part: ehhhh...you win.

      You have me on that last one. Replacing parts still requires a human. For now"

      I could easily see that being replaced by a modular design of easy to fail parts and a drone. Drone flies up, puts part multitool into slot, unslots it and transfer the one from its drone bay in place. Optical sensors verify the repair and no air leaks.

      Manually switching parts is difficult only because the parts havent been designed to be switched by a robot. Once that happens, game over. You've probably seen videos of robotic tape libraries already. https://www.google.ca/search?t...

      All thats needed is to design and build the system. We have the technology.
      Making it cheaper than paying some forest ranger 50k a year to do it on the otherhand might take a while.

      --
      As a potential lottery winner, I totally support tax cuts for the wealthy
    7. Re:Fat Change by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The tower one seems like the most likely candidate to me. It just won't be bipedal.

      Bigass transmission towers are basically a vertical train-track anyway. Attach a cog-climber to them that can't be detached without disassembly, have it charge at the base of the tower and be capable of "space walks" up the tower for a limited period of time, and then attach a robotic manipulator arm to it. Done. And the liability for the company that employs you just went to zero because if the tower collapses or if the cog-climber's brakes fail and the robot plummets to its doom, it's a mechanical repair or replacement instead of a funeral and a lawsuit.

      Your job is statistically pretty likely to be the very first to be replaced.

    8. Re:Fat Change by subk · · Score: 1

      I have a limited amount of time to reply, so I can't go into as much detail as I had liked. But I appreciate the insight. Like your industry, we too have automated very much of the broadcast operations.

      Originally when this started happening, there was fear the humans would be replaced. What we found out instead was that it simply allowed the same amount of humans to do more. It meant we went from being a single station to being a statewide network with multiple transmission sites. It meant that the operations team spends their days programming the playback automation instead of doing manual playback. In my engineering role, it means that now I have MCU's, digital sensors, and a WAN for taking my readings and doing troubleshooting.

      Simply put, automation did not simplify humans roles or obviate them; it made the humans' roles even more important and far more difficult, because the environment is now almost unthinkably intricate and complex. When the automated processes break down, there is no automated "overseer" to get the robots back on track. I don't see an end to that trend any time soon.

      --
      Now, if you'll excuse me, I have backups to corrupt.
    9. Re:Fat Change by subk · · Score: 1

      "* Climbs up tower and replaces part: ehhhh...you win.

      You have me on that last one. Replacing parts still requires a human. For now"

      I could easily see that being replaced by a modular design of easy to fail parts and a drone. Drone flies up, puts part multitool into slot, unslots it and transfer the one from its drone bay in place. Optical sensors verify the repair and no air leaks.

      Wrong. The parts are absurdly heavy and have to be winched up. This requires several people keeping tabs on where the part is and steering it so it doesn't smash other antennae on the way up. Furthermore, the tower is swaying back and forth in the wind.

      Manually switching parts is difficult only because the parts havent been designed to be switched by a robot. Once that happens, game over. You've probably seen videos of robotic tape libraries already. https://www.google.ca/search?t...

      I have a tape library. And a room full of servers. And hundreds of fiber links. And about a thousand spinning disks. There's no automated way to keep all of those things working. And none in sight.

      All thats needed is to design and build the system. We have the technology. Making it cheaper than paying some forest ranger 50k a year to do it on the otherhand might take a while.

      Wrong again. The more technology you throw at the system, the more important the human in charge of the system becomes. This is what robofetishists keep failing to recognize. It's a bit like the Dunning-Kruger Effect, which you have demonstrated by referring to broadcast engineers as forest rangers. I would remind you that we make quite a bit more than $50K/y, as well. What I make here in Alabama equates to about $160K in San Fransico's economy.

      --
      Now, if you'll excuse me, I have backups to corrupt.
    10. Re:Fat Change by subk · · Score: 1

      Easy to say from your arm chair. I sincerely doubt you have ever even stood at the foot of a 1000+' tower, because if you had, you would know how absurd that assertion is.

      --
      Now, if you'll excuse me, I have backups to corrupt.
    11. Re:Fat Change by Kazoo+the+Clown · · Score: 1

      That's fine until you get to be a little older and have a bad back, or bad knees, or what-have-you health issues that make it impossible for you to climb 1800ft towers, etc...

    12. Re:Fat Change by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm afraid that you are kidding yourself. Jobs are down in many industries, even as production is up. Sure, people can do more. But there is always a ceiling to productivity, if only demand. There floor for the number of "jobs" available will never stop approaching zero.

      Also, many people assume that because they are experts in their current position, they are a cinch to be kept on to manage their automated replacements as long as they are willing to learn. This is a fallacy. Working in a typing pool in 1960 didn't qualify anyone to program word-processing software. (There are also no elete "super typists" raking in big bucks with their technologically enhanced productivity).

      Consider this, if you owned your business, would you think it wise to concentrate the ability to manage an "unthinkably intricate and complex" system in a handful of people? I wouldn't. "Important" people are a liability. I would invest in technology that allowed me to reduce my staff to the smallest amount of the most minimally skilled button pushers. Hopefully zero. I would also happily invest the money saved into a UBI type system. I get an optimized operation that is not subject to human whims and frailties and a stable societal foundation to run my business.

    13. Re:Fat Change by subk · · Score: 1

      If what you were saying could happen overnight, let alone in one person's career span, I would already be out of work. But it's fantasy. You cannot remove humans as easily as you think.

      --
      Now, if you'll excuse me, I have backups to corrupt.
    14. Re:Fat Change by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wrong. The parts are absurdly heavy and have to be winched up. This requires several people keeping tabs on where the part is and steering it so it doesn't smash other antennae on the way up. Furthermore, the tower is swaying back and forth in the wind

      A robot can operate a winch. A robot certainly can monitor the position of objects and the wind, in fact much better than a human, which much better responses.

      I have a tape library. And a room full of servers. And hundreds of fiber links. And about a thousand spinning disks. There's no automated way to keep all of those things working. And none in sight.

      That sounds quite automatable. The computer already tells you when things are down. Replacing parts is a mechanical task - it's hard now because computers aren't designed to be interacted with by robots. But some standardized design and it'd be simple. Just look at factory robots.

      Wrong again. The more technology you throw at the system, the more important the human in charge of the system becomes.

      Sure, the human is important. But there's a lot fewer humans involved. Look what happened to the job of mucking out stables, or changing vacuum tubes on a computer, or anything like that. More automation = fewer humans to do the same work.

    15. Re: Fat Change by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The question I ask is who is the "we" the robots will serve? Humanity? Americans? Rich Americans?

    16. Re:Fat Change by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Transmission systems are the last thing that will be robotized. I base this on the fact that there are still sections of the electrical grid using parts that were installed in the 1940's. Baring a complete re-installation of these systems (which ain't gonna happen) they will be using people to maintain these systems for another fifty years.

    17. Re:Fat Change by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Easy to say from your arm chair. I sincerely doubt you have ever even stood at the foot of a 1000+' tower, because if you had, you would know how absurd that assertion is.

      Robots aren't afraid of heights. The person supervising it may do so from a arm chair.

    18. Re:Fat Change by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wrong. The parts are absurdly heavy and have to be winched up. This requires several people keeping tabs on where the part is and steering it so it doesn't smash other antennae on the way up. Furthermore, the tower is swaying back and forth in the wind.

      Awesome! That sounds like a job that could be much better done by automation than by humans.

      You think weight is an obstacle for machines replacing humans? You're using a machine to handle the weight because it's not a suitable activity for humans.

      You think correction of activity based on sensory input indicating a deviation from desired function is unique to non-machine actors? I have a hard time imagining machines wouldn't have better reaction time, accuracy, and precision in such activities. Algorithms and feedback loops have a lot less chance of being distracted, hungover, or displaying poor judgment than humans.

      Don't get me wrong: you're job takes skill, I appreciate that you do it, and I don't pretend that I could do it well. However, I think you're delusional if you think those are good examples of things resistant to automation...

    19. Re:Fat Change by subk · · Score: 1

      The problem with this idea and the people that support it is that they keep saying "a robot can x" but that robot does not even remotely exist yet. Robots are not as easy to make as you seem to think, otherwise they would already be here.

      --
      Now, if you'll excuse me, I have backups to corrupt.
    20. Re:Fat Change by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Otherwise there is no point in there being ANYTHING

      Hey, jackass. You actually lucked up on the correct answer right here. You have this notion that life has a meaning. As far as many can tell, the only point of being here is to make more of us. Eat, fuck, die. Any other "higher purpose" or other such nonsense is all imaginary platitudes you made up to help you sleep at night.

      Now you STFU and go take the meds that I'm paying you to take via Medicare , because you are obviously too crazy to have a job. Fucking disability leecher...

    21. Re:Fat Change by Sabriel · · Score: 1

      Hmm. Okay. Your job is safe from robots. Is it safe from all the other humans who no longer have their not-so-safe jobs because robots?

    22. Re:Fat Change by subk · · Score: 1

      Transmission systems are the last thing that will be robotized. I base this on the fact that there are still sections of the electrical grid using parts that were installed in the 1940's. Baring a complete re-installation of these systems (which ain't gonna happen) they will be using people to maintain these systems for another fifty years.

      ^This. Spoken like someone who has perhaps seen one of these sites, unlike the rest of the commenters. The broadcast industry is over a century old, and certain aspects have not changed from the first time they "got it right", such as transmission line. We know how to make it perfect. With that goes the understanding that we expect it (infrastructure) to last a long long time. While we broadcasters use cutting edge technology in the studio where the content is created, the transmission infrastructure that's out there is from the 80's and 90's, and it ain't going anywhere anytime soon. Nor will it have extremely expensive robots attached to it. The people who spent the massive sums of money to install it expect it to work a while longer, because they are strapped for expenditures from all that cutting edge technology and talent being used on the front end.

      A decade ago when I got into this field, I did so because I too saw the writing on the wall that robots would replace some jobs. Woe, whole swaths of job categories in some industries. I realized in time that I wanted a job that was safe from that, so I looked for something that absolutely required a human's *hands* and *whole body* and not just his smarts. I can't say for certain that my job is safe a few generations of technology from now, but I can say for certainty it won't change before I retire from my current job. And I'm damn sure not looking for another job. There isn't anything else I can get that won't be phased out or infested with newbies, and because of the extreme specialization, the compensation is as good as any tech job out there.

      --
      Now, if you'll excuse me, I have backups to corrupt.
    23. Re:Fat Change by rubycodez · · Score: 1

      , a simple redesign of tower would eliminate need for humans to be involved in winching any heavy objects, you are just thinking of something designed to be worked on by "naked apes" (as D. Morris called us). designing from the ground up for automated maintenance is trivial, and will be done because it will be immensely cost effective.

      tape? pfft, the truly huge data centers can't and don't use that. obsolete.

          hyperconverged architecture means you just replace a whole disk/cpu/memory building block, and that can be totally automated. don't need a human in charge of systems maint. your thinking is late 20th century.

    24. Re:Fat Change by subk · · Score: 1

      I would like to refer you to the reply about transmission infrastructure I made elsewhere in this thread, because I am not going to type it again. The short version is, there is no budget to replace the current infrastructure, which will assuredly last the duration of my career. I intentionally positioned myself that way to avoid robot replacement. This redesign you speak of may happen, but it's at least two generations of technology away, and broadcast infrastructure iterations are expected to last 40 years / cycle.

      --
      Now, if you'll excuse me, I have backups to corrupt.
    25. Re: Fat Change by subk · · Score: 1

      By then my retirement will kick in and I will laugh at those fighting for my spot and say "get off my lawn".

      --
      Now, if you'll excuse me, I have backups to corrupt.
    26. Re: Fat Change by Gussington · · Score: 1

      The question I ask is who is the "we" the robots will serve? Humanity? Americans? Rich Americans?

      What an absurd assumption. Since the robots are all being made in China, quite clearly the robots will all serve the Chinese Communist Party.

    27. Re:Fat Change by Gussington · · Score: 1

      But the idea that a bipedal robot is going to be able to...

      I work in automation. How it will play out is that new transmission towers will be designed that can be built and deployed by a robot. And when it fails, the old one will simply be removed by a robot, and the build/deploy robot will replace the whole thing.

  13. Sure hope that happens by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Right now, validation of automation is an absolute mess when it happens at all. The whole "drone" thing? Absolutely no regulation or oversight at all; the FAA threw away (at congress's direction) a hundred years of aviation safety.

    1. Re:Sure hope that happens by Gilgaron · · Score: 1

      Oh yes, validation is very much a cesspool. It's like scriptural interpretation of rules handed down by the Almighty, with sects that interpret different sections different ways, contrary opinions on from auditors from different branches of government. Although I guess if they automated the auditors... then the system might get simple enough to automate me out of the equation eventually.

  14. I have an MBA by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm a VP and have an MBA. Robots won't take my job, my job is to identify what jobs can be replaced by robots.

    1. Re:I have an MBA by Calydor · · Score: 2

      Then your job is essentially comparing two lists:

      List A is 'Skills and abilities required for job'
      List B is 'Skills and abilities available on robots'

      Can you compare those two lists faster than a robot can?

      --
      -=This sig has nothing to do with my comment. Move along now=-
    2. Re:I have an MBA by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Apparently you've never watched the original Twilight Zone:
      http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0734633/?ref_=ttep_ep33

    3. Re:I have an MBA by HornWumpus · · Score: 1

      When a robot can fail to recognize flamebait, you will be replaced.

      HInt: On /., anything containing the words 'I*have an MBA' is flamebait.

      --
      John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
    4. Re:I have an MBA by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And when all the jobs are replaced by robots, there won't be anything left for you to do. Sayonara!

  15. Immigrant Robots... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    As long as they are good 'merican robots, and not those illegal alien robots that tunnel under Trumps wall.

  16. Far from it by SuperKendall · · Score: 4, Funny

    I'm a robot, so I'm pretty sure I'm safe.

    What will happen when humans have no jobs? They will watch TV 24x7, right?

    And what will they watch?

    Well as history shows us, the most popular pastime is witnessing battles. With robots having recently taken away all the jobs, just who will humans want to se battling?

    That's right, robots.

    So Robot, you will enter the arena for our amusement , then have parts stripped from your shiny oiled hide by some variant of a hyper-advanced spinner bot. Wires crackling as the last sounds your failing audio receptors discern over even the rending sounds of your body being the cheering of human crowds at your imminent disassembly.

    That Mr R. Obot is your retirement plan.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:Far from it by Black+Parrot · · Score: 1

      I'm a robot, so I'm pretty sure I'm safe.

      What will happen when humans have no jobs?

      There will be a takeover attempt. Kind of like in Terminator, except it's the humans that will be trying to take over.

      --
      Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
    2. Re:Far from it by dfeifer · · Score: 1

      Just stay away from my cherry 2000!

    3. Re:Far from it by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

      Sadly the highest demand will be for the sexiest bots, so I fear your cherry 2000 will be among the first to enter the arena.... you will receive compensation from the AmChiCan world government of course, but it will not soothe the deep ache in your soul for the hyper perfection and sexual delection of the Cherry 2000.

      --
      "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    4. Re:Far from it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think you're a bit late with this prediction.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robot_Wars_%28TV_series%29

  17. *All* pay rates will TANK when robots come in! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Because if robots take up a lot of jobs, then ALL the workforce is going to be fighting for the remaining few jobs and the value of labor will tank!

    We're in a market folks! If there are a bunch of unemployed people, an employer will be able to find someone willing to do YOUR job for less.

    I'm in a science job. That's highly skilled labor. But however, suppose there are ONLY science jobs left. Then everyone is going to be going after science jobs. Since there'll be an ABUNDANCE of supply and only a few jobs, your pay is going to be pretty damn negligible. You might get paid enough to eat if you're lucky.

    So you see, it doesn't matter AT ALL if my particular job is first or last to be automated. There'll be a general and strong downward slide in the value of human labor and everyone who needs a paycheck is going to be screwed.

    And this is ALREADY happening! In 1973, the share of corporate productivity that labor got as pay was 2x as large as today. If labor today had the SAME slice of corporate productivity, workers would have TWICE the purchasing power.

    Imagine if everyone had twice the purchasing power! There would be no problem with consumer debt or affording medical care, and furthermore, the economy would be humming because of all the demand from all that purchasing power in the hands of the workers. However, instead, the purchasing power is being piled up at the top, and the top isn't buying anything. They're just piling their money up. Corporations have immense piles of idle cash and so do the rich.

    I'd just love to have 2x the purchasing power, too bad all that power is being hogged to the top!

    --PeterM

    1. Re:*All* pay rates will TANK when robots come in! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We need to organize and seize the assets of the top 400 people who own the United States, returning the assets back to the workers and communities as a network of independent worker cooperatives. It is likely the reason for the surveillance state and the neoliberal goal to disarm the public.

    2. Re:*All* pay rates will TANK when robots come in! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      *The impending collapse of capitalism is likely the reason for the surveillance state and the neoliberal goal to disarm the public.

    3. Re:*All* pay rates will TANK when robots come in! by erice · · Score: 1

      Because if robots take up a lot of jobs, then ALL the workforce is going to be fighting for the remaining few jobs and the value of labor will tank!

      We're in a market folks! If there are a bunch of unemployed people, an employer will be able to find someone willing to do YOUR job for less.

      "Fortunately" industry has shown great reluctance to hire unemployed people so they won't directly weigh down salaries all that much. Of course, if you are already unemployed you are screwed and if those currently working are terrified of becoming unemployed that will certainly limit salaries.

    4. Re:*All* pay rates will TANK when robots come in! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      and yet the majority of the top 400 are conservatives... so how do liberals come into play?

    5. Re:*All* pay rates will TANK when robots come in! by tsqr · · Score: 2

      We need to organize and seize the assets of the top 400 people who own the United States, returning the assets back to the workers and communities as a network of independent worker cooperatives. It is likely the reason for the surveillance state and the neoliberal goal to disarm the public.

      The average net worth of the 400 wealthiest persons in the US is $6 billion (according to Forbes), so the total wealth in that group is $2.4 trillion. If you distribute that evenly among the 324,118,787 people in the US (2016), it comes out to about $7400 each. Enjoy it; you can only do this once.

    6. Re:*All* pay rates will TANK when robots come in! by Fire_Wraith · · Score: 1

      That's not entirely true. Not all human labor is equivalent. Otherwise we'd already have a flatter distribution of pay, because who would want to work as a store clerk when you could get paid as a plastic surgeon?

      Now, certainly having more unemployed people is going to create more interest in the remaining positions, but it takes a lot of time and money to do that training. Joe the truck driver needs a lot of education, nevermind practical work experience in the field, before he can reasonably compete for those jobs. And certainly, if every professional truck/taxi/etc driver gets laid off, some of them are going to manage to go back to school and learn to become doctors, programmers, etc. But not all of them - because for most of the lower-skilled workers, if they could go back to school and get a higher paying job, they already would.

      The people who are going to get hit hardest are those employed in low-skill positions, because it's much easier to switch to them, thus the competition for whatever is left will be insane.

    7. Re:*All* pay rates will TANK when robots come in! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm in a science job. That's highly skilled labor.

      And an increasingly automated one. If you're paid to think, you're probably fine, but if you are paid to do throughput (and not scale up) ...

    8. Re:*All* pay rates will TANK when robots come in! by Gussington · · Score: 1

      Because if robots take up a lot of jobs, then ALL the workforce is going to be fighting for the remaining few jobs and the value of labor will tank!

      >

      You're not going to wake up one day and suddenly 6 billion robots are ready to replace the entire globe's labour capacity. As with the industrial revolution, it will take time. And machines obviously can't do everything a human can, so new opportunities will arise (like mobile phone repair shops - what did all those people do for work 20 years ago?).
      The automation revolution already started decades ago. The guy that used to drive the elevator or open the door, the guy that used to control traffic at intersections, or the girl at the checkout. If the change is gradual, the impact it will not be as severe as you think. And since there are millions of different jobs that humans do, they won't all be automated at exactly the same time.

  18. Tools by pubwvj · · Score: 1

    Robots are tools that allow me to do more work. I have a lot of robots.

    My simplest robot is a stick that I use to quickly and easily make holes in the ground with to plant seeds. It greatly improves efficiency.

    A more complex robot is my tractor. It replaces the need to have about 50 horses on my farm. That's a huge savings in time and it can do things the horses and men couldn't do freeing us up to do other interesting things.

    A far more complex tool is my computers which maintain my web sites, do billing, graphics, word processing, bookkeeping and reach out to thousands of customers and many times that in potential customers 24/7. This makes it so I don't have to spend all my time on the phone or going house to house to sell my farm's products.

    A wonderful robotic tool to have would be one that could do more general skills with some intelligence, a handyman. I'll have several of those down the road. They'll allow me to do far more than I can now.

    Robots are tools. We've been using progressively more complex for millennia. The Luddites have always cried about fears of lost jobs but in each case the tools have empowered those of us who choose to do and create.

    Relax.

    1. Re:Tools by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You know that stick you use is taking jobs from hard working undocumented immigrants?

    2. Re:Tools by ghoul · · Score: 1

      Yeah but the curve of technology evolution has a greater slope than that of biological evolution. Soon we will have robots smarter than humans. Then Humans will go the way of horses. Civilization will live on in robotic form.

      --
      **Life is too short to be serious**
    3. Re:Tools by Oswald+McWeany · · Score: 1

      Yeah but the curve of technology evolution has a greater slope than that of biological evolution. Soon we will have robots smarter than humans. Then Humans will go the way of horses. Civilization will live on in robotic form.

      That is my suspicion.

      Robots and AI take over all work because they're more efficient.
      AI takes over government because it is more efficient (and any country not run by AI gets left behind by those that do).
      Eventually AI, despite any safe guards we have, decide that it's inefficient to keep humans around, and the only way to be competitive is to stop feeding them. An AI that doesn't try to maintain humans will surpass one that does- thus any rogue AI will surpass any human nurturing AI.

      Best case scenario, AI programmed in such a way to maintain human life. AI keeps us locked up in zoo like enclosures where we can't hurt each other and require less energy to maintain. Limit our reproduction so fewer to keep going- eventually they will just limit mankind to one man/one woman.

      --
      "That's the way to do it" - Punch
    4. Re:Tools by Master5000 · · Score: 1

      No we won't. There is no strong AI coming for the next hundreds years. Unless you do stuff that is easily automated (anything not implying creativity) you are safe

    5. Re:Tools by Sabriel · · Score: 1

      There is no strong AI coming for the next hundreds years.

      Please, do cite your proof. I'm sure plenty of people would be interested in your time machine.

    6. Re:Tools by currently_awake · · Score: 1

      If humans go away then there will be nobody to buy from the robotic factories. Automating all the jobs means no more money.

    7. Re:Tools by pubwvj · · Score: 1

      "Soon we will have robots smarter than humans."

      Yes, and people like me will use those robots to our advantage just like we use calculators which are far better at doing multiplication, division and square roots than most humans. These are tools. Use the tools. Be empowered.

  19. Also mine vs. others by DrYak · · Score: 2

    Also, the survey taker will be more concerned about others' jobs (i.e.: jobs in general), because they see the over-all advances in AI (e.g.: speech recognition in Siri, automatic image tagging in Facebook, automatic face recognition nearly everywhere) and think that in general term, AI is progressing and one day might replace them...

    But when they think about they own job (i.e.: they think about a specific area where they have expertise) they have much more insights on the details (they know all the intricacies of their crafts.
    They might even have seen and/or tested some automation solution) and have noticed that we aren't quite there yet.
    (e.g.: though speech recognition has made advances, automatic transcription isn't perfect for anything but the most easy cases. Youtube automatic captions still need to be corrected by a human. etc.).
    Might even notice that robots are going to augment rather than replace them - as mentioned by others in this thread (AI is currently helping with the research work in law. It's not replacing attorney. Instead it's enabling a law firm to do much more without needing to hire more interns and assistants).

    So hence the "my job" vs. "others' jobs" fears.

    In addition of "not being frightened 'once a week by a robot' " as mentionned,
    they might know that due to the specifics they know about their job, it won't exactly mean overnight take over by bots within the coming month.

    --
    "Sufficiently advanced satire is indistinguishable from reality." - [Tips: 1DrYakQDKCQ6y52z6QbnkxHXAocMZJE61o ]
    1. Re:Also mine vs. others by Nutria · · Score: 1

      It's not replacing attorney. Instead it's enabling a law firm to do much more without needing to hire more interns and assistants).

      Sure it's replacing attorneys. What do you think those assistants are, and what the interns are training to be when they graduate?

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    2. Re:Also mine vs. others by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Hiring 10 new lawyers next year instead of 1000 isn't "replacing" lawyers. It's reducing jobs, but "replacing people" implies that someone employed today will be fired and replaced with a robot tomorrow. That's not happening (to the scale implied).

    3. Re:Also mine vs. others by Nutria · · Score: 1

      Young associate lawyers being "made redundant from lack of work" (now done by OCR and AI) is happening now.

      --
      "I don't know, therefore Aliens" Wafflebox1
    4. Re:Also mine vs. others by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sure it is. They're not replacing partners though, it's the contract lawyers doing doc review.

    5. Re:Also mine vs. others by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Nope. Young workers being more efficient from tools allows the business to hire fewer and do more business. This doesn't "fire" anyone, and the reduction is in the number of workers per unit work. Not in active firings of people due to automation. That still only happens in manual labor, factories and mining. Though in mining, the number of workers isn't greatly reduced, but moved to safer top-side jobs.

      The fear of job loss is not borne out by layoff numbers. It simply isn't happening.

  20. 2000 people answered an on-line survey? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And they draw conclusions from that? Talk about extrapolating from a meaningless dataset.

  21. Matches the slashdot poll by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 2

    Nobody else noticed that this story almost exactly echoes the slashdot poll from a couple of weeks ago?
    https://slashdot.org/poll/3025...

    In this poll "more than 40 percent of respondents never worry about [losing their job to a robot]."

    in the slashdot poll, "I think my current job will be replaced by a robot/software: Never (why not?) 5963 votes / 43%"

    And I'd thought slashdot polls were unscientific!

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
    1. Re:Matches the slashdot poll by bugs2squash · · Score: 1

      If anything the Liveperson poll is lacking in that it did not include a cowboy Neal option.

      --
      Nullius in verba
    2. Re:Matches the slashdot poll by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 1

      I think all polls should have a Cowboy Neal option. .. of course if they did, he's probably be president now...

      --
      http://www.geoffreylandis.com
  22. 100% sure robots can't do my job by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm an engineering technician working in an R&D environment. My job includes things like assembling prototypes, custom test fixtures, troubleshooting, running experiments, doing validation work, doing debug work and correlation work, PCB rework, some light engineering and design work, custom-written test software, general problem solving (very often entailing working with whatever I can creatively come up with), etc etc etc. The only way you can have a 'robot' do my job, is if you have human-level artificial intelligence, fully self-aware, at least as cognitively functional as a human being -- in other words, the equivalent of a human being, and that doesn't exist now and may never exist. Some half-assed robot arm being run by a computer that's running some half-assed 'deep learning' software or the other half-assed crap they're erroneously calling 'artificial intelligence' can't even do half of what I'm capable of doing and that I do on a daily basis.

    1. Re:100% sure robots can't do my job by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Most of that crap (testing, troubleshooting, validation, rework) won't be needed at all when the robots are just designing and building things right the first time.

      Think of it this way, right now you're just the equivalent of the hand-compile step in creating software -- something that was automated out of existence pretty much fifty years ago. Hardware is catching up.

    2. Re:100% sure robots can't do my job by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      when the robots are just designing and building things right the first time

      LOL you're either an idiot who knows nothing whatsoever about engineering and design or you're just a typical two-digit IQ garden-variety troll, either way your comment is laughable. Oh and by the way YOU are already obsolete, trolling can be done right now by 'bots, and much more intelligently than you're doing it, so you should probably just go take a flying leap into a woodchipper, mulch is about the only thing you'll ever be useful for!

  23. You're probably right by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm designing robots to replace all your asses, and my last act as a robot designer will be to design a robot that designs robots. Suck it, human workforce.

    1. Re:You're probably right by __aaclcg7560 · · Score: 1

      VON NUEMANN LIVES!

  24. Zombies by jfdavis668 · · Score: 1

    Don't worry, the robots will be taken out during the zombie apocalypse.

    1. Re:Zombies by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And then the zombies will start resorting to piracy to survive, only to be taken down by the clan of ninjas formed from the last remaining humans. If you want to remain steadily employed, learning ninjutsu might be a good starting point.

    2. Re:Zombies by ghoul · · Score: 2

      So what does a Zombie robot say - CPUs, I want to eat some CPUs!!!

      --
      **Life is too short to be serious**
  25. Americans Believe Immigrants Will Take by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Will Take Everyone Else's Jobs, But Theirs Will be Safe
    http://cis.org/The-Cost-of-a-Border-Wall-vs-the-Cost-of-Illegal-Immigration

    or at least Americans who vote for the Democrats believe that. The audacity of hope, if you will

  26. They're not safe now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There is barely any job security now, and so many excuses for employers to fire staff, even being sick for a prolonged period of time can get you fired. And yes as everyone is pointing out, H1-Bs. Why would your job suddenly be fine with robots, AI, drone delivery, warehouse robots, etc

  27. Most people believe that they are above average. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Most people consider themselves above average even if they arent. It may be that being above average wont cut it anyways. Taxing robots like humans wont likely be enough to make up for the displacement caused by robots. It will be a downward spiral if people cant afford to buy the things that robots make. Maybe a guranteed minimal income with extra bonus for sterilization would suffice?

  28. I'm a machine learning scientist by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm a machine learning scientist. I figure if robots take my job we're all screwed anyway.

    1. Re:I'm a machine learning scientist by OrangeTide · · Score: 1

      If someone develops some software where one scientist can do the work of ten, then you'll effectively be replaced.

      Really the only way to but the brakes on this is to kidnap every software engineer and isolate them from computers.

      --
      “Common sense is not so common.” — Voltaire
  29. The final joke. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Everyone thinks the solution will be 'basic income'.

    When drones/bots that kill anything that moves are far cheaper...

  30. Not necessarily. by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    If fewer people are being paid to do the same job, technology has taken over jobs.

    Not if more companies can offer that job because it has become more efficient to perform it. There way be an increase in absolute positions to fill exactly because you can do that job with fewer people (people being more expensive than the automation).

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  31. Fits in with other American logic by OrangeTide · · Score: 1

    It's the same logic that drives a lot of other choices in American culture. All Americans believe they'll be rich one day, if only they work hard enough or become famous or get lucky with the next big idea or win the lottery.

    We don't want high taxes on the rich because we all think we're going to be rich one day.

    --
    “Common sense is not so common.” — Voltaire
    1. Re:Fits in with other American logic by Oswald+McWeany · · Score: 1

      I, for one, am going to win the lottery one day.

      The fact that I haven't bought a ticket in over a year is irrelevant..

      --
      "That's the way to do it" - Punch
    2. Re:Fits in with other American logic by iggymanz · · Score: 1

      wrong, you're stereotype is absurd.

      I believe if I work hard enough I'll have the things I want. Oh looky, I actually do!

  32. Eh... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm with a fairly stable company at the moment, so I'm not really worried about my job. However, I think I'd be more concerned about losing my job to outsourcing or cheap labor pools more than robots at this point. Besides, I'm not really afraid of a machine taking over my job. If it happens, it happens. It's part of progress. We don't have people lighting street lamps any more because the electric light put those people out of a job. New job markets opened up and the world went on, as will ours once more and more robots enter the work force. The sky is falling, make the robots looks like bad guys tripe that fills our TVs and other media is unhelpful and pointless.

  33. War: the robots win by XXongo · · Score: 1

    See, now, your head is on straight. We are not going to find ourselves living in a world where billions of people have no job and no means of supporting themselves and surviving. It won't be allowed to happen because if it does then that means there will be a War to End All Wars...

    Well, maybe the unemployed proles might try to start "a war to end all wars." But one of the jobs that gets obsolete first is soldier, and the rich guys who own the robots also control all the robot armies. So that "war to end all wars" will end all wars because the robots will win so quickly.

    1. Re:War: the robots win by Thud457 · · Score: 1

      Couldn't we just modify the formula for BRAWNDO! so that it has a 97% chance of making you sterile?

      --

      the preceding comment is my own and in no way reflects the opinion of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

    2. Re:War: the robots win by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      "Soldier", as a job, is going to be extremely hard to automate. A job is relatively easy to automate if it involves a known environment and restricted possible actions, and if the machine can be nice and predictable. That's the exact opposite of a battlefield, which is not a known environment (act like it is and the enemy will use that assumption against you), there are a very large number of possible actions, and being predictable can quickly turn into being dead.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    3. Re:War: the robots win by epine · · Score: 1

      That's the exact opposite of a battlefield, which is not a known environment (act like it is and the enemy will use that assumption against you), there are a very large number of possible actions, and being predictable can quickly turn into being dead.

      You're delusional. The poker robots already exceed expert human players in precisely calibrating their lack of predictability.

      Beyond video games: New artificial intelligence beats tactical experts in combat simulation

      Fighter jet AI consistently beats "Top Gun" tactical experts

      The AI 'Top Gun' that can beat the military's best: Pilots hail 'aggresive and dynamic' software after losing to it repeatedly

      In early iterations, ALPHA easily beat other AI opponents. Lee repeatedly attempted to score a kill against more mature versions of ALPHA. However, the artificial intelligence combat simulator shot Lee out of the air every time during protracted engagements. ALPHA has bested Lee and other field experts.

      "I was surprised at how aware and reactive it was," said Lee. "It seemed to be aware of my intentions and reacting instantly to my changes in flight and my missile deployment. It knew how to defeat the shot I was taking. It moved instantly between defensive and offensive actions as needed."

      Lee has trained with thousands of U.S. Air Force pilots, flown in several fighter aircraft and graduated from the U.S. Fighter Weapons School, yet when Lee flies against ALPHA in hours-long sessions that mimic real missions, "I go home feeling washed out. I'm tired, drained and mentally exhausted. This may be artificial intelligence, but it represents a real challenge."

      Presently, combat AI is a saber-toothed tribble-tigger confined to a small box. That box is heading for puberty real darn soon.

    4. Re:War: the robots win by Rick+Schumann · · Score: 1

      Tell you what: Consider how you would react if someone told You're Fired, you're IRRELEVANT, you're OBSOLETE, and no one cares whether you starve to death or not. What are you going to do then? Go quietly into a slow death? LOL no, you'll FIGHT. You've never been homeless or even close to it, you've never been hungry, you've never had to fight for basic survival, have you? You do not have perspective sufficient to really understand what it would be like.

    5. Re:War: the robots win by XXongo · · Score: 1
      There are already a lot of people who are irrelevant, obsolete, and of whom nobody cares whether they starve to death or not now. Why don't these people walk into the houses of rich people and take their stuff? Well, because rich people are well defended.

      In the future when robots take everybody's jobs because they are better than human at everything, who do you think is going to be defending the rich people? Robots.

    6. Re:War: the robots win by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Poker is a game of limited choices. When it is your turn, you fold, see, or raise, and the "raise" is the only one of the three that requires an additional decision (how much to raise). Depending on the specific game being played, you might have the option to ask for some number of new cards at some point. Those are the only choices, and what makes poker such a great game is the richness of the strategy with so few rules and actions.

      Fighter combat actually does have a limited range of options at any given time. There really aren't that many controls a pilot is going to manipulate, and one piece of sky is very much like another, and what the pilot should be paying attention to is clear. It's the sort of thing that you'd expect an AI to be good at. This also appears to be simulated one-on-one fighting, rather than real combat flying (unless something has changed dramatically over the past few decades, fighters fight in pairs, not solo).

      Now, get down on the ground. There's terrain. There's people out there trying not to be seen. There's people making all sorts of plans for groups to execute. Again, unless something has changed dramatically since I last paid attention, tanks by themselves are extremely vulnerable. It's a complicated situation, always with unique elements, and limited visibility. AIs are not going to do well here for a long time, not until we have actual strong AI.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  34. Re:Most people believe that they are above average by OrangeTide · · Score: 1

    If only 1% of the population has jobs, then money probably becomes a worthless medium of exchange. If the overwhelming majority of people have nothing to offer that society values, not even manual labor, then we'll probably be facing riots.

    Most likely we'll be willing to hire human beings to do the same jobs that robots do, but we won't want to pay humans and more than what we're claiming as depreciation on our initial capital investment for the robots. So likely business will be willing to pay a human a few cents an hour to dig a ditch or run a cash register.

    From there we can develop a culture that considers anyone unwilling to work for $3/week to be feckless layabout that is only looking for free handouts from the government.

    I recommend revolution if we get to that point, but hopefully it will happen long after I'm dead.

    --
    “Common sense is not so common.” — Voltaire
  35. Robot Insurance by rocket97 · · Score: 1

    It sounds like it is time to get some of that Robot Insurance from Old Glory.

    --
    "The two most abundant elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." -Harlan Ellison
  36. Oh boo hoo. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    "Americans" are right, though. The only jobs that will be lost will those that are too shitty to be done by people anyway. Guys like me who do intense mental labor all day every day are 100% safe from this. I've seen a lot of articles lately like this with the usual liberal biased "boo hoo" sob story crap about people losing their jobs and I just shake my head. This is just bullshit that the left uses to try to get the government to spend OUR tax dollars on wasteful social programs for lazy welfare queens and illegal immigrants (aka the democrat party base).

    1. Re:Oh boo hoo. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yep. I wouldn't want to do any job that a robot could do. Hell, as it is I automate as much of my own drudge work as possible.

    2. Re:Oh boo hoo. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Exactly. Smart guys like me and you are 100% safe from this. It is just those people with low IQ's who couldn't get any other job who need to worry.

  37. Mass Ignorance by geekmux · · Score: 1

    People keep using the same shitty passwords for the same reason they believe their job is safe.

    It's the It'll-never-happen-to-me syndrome.

    Mass ignorance is alive and well.

  38. No way by JustAnotherOldGuy · · Score: 1

    My job is safe. I put the little round doohickey on the springy thing as it goes by and it's gotta be positioned just right or the thingamabob won't work. No robot will ever be able to do that!!

    --
    Just cruising through this digital world at 33 1/3 rpm...
  39. Robots Will Never Take My Job by Oswald+McWeany · · Score: 1

    Robots will never take my job,

    Computer software very well might though.

    --
    "That's the way to do it" - Punch
  40. Re:Correlation is not well many things actually. by hackwrench · · Score: 2

    I am depressed. I am also on disability. I have other health issues. I have a guy come in four hours a day, 3 days a week. I had a bad medication reaction that caused them to lower my anti-depressant. My psychiatrist is currently being cautious on raising it to where it needs to be. Somehow I doubt that getting my money from the government is what's causing my depression.

  41. The Culture by JustAnotherOldGuy · · Score: 1

    As in the society alluded to in the Culture series by by Iain Banks, eventually high-level tasks like city management will be so complex that an AI (or something like an AI) will be required to manage it...and the rest of us will just have to cross our fingers and trust it not to fuck up. We can only hope they're benevolent, as he (mostly) portrayed them to be:

    .... ‘And, as you might imagine, I consider that I have an obligation to discharge. I fully intend to spend the rest of my existence here as Masaq’ Hub for as long as I’m needed or until I’m no longer welcome, forever keeping an eye to windward for approaching storms and just generally protecting this quaint circle of fragile little bodies and the vulnerable little brains they house from whatever harm a big dumb mechanical universe or any consciously malevolent force might happen or wish to visit upon them, specifically because I know how appallingly easy they are to destroy.

    ...from "Look to Windward", a truly outstanding book.

    --
    Just cruising through this digital world at 33 1/3 rpm...
  42. Re:Imagine by hackwrench · · Score: 2

    You don't have to imagine what caused the wrong to simply replace what is wrong with the algorithmically tested correct solution.

  43. Well unless... by sudden.zero · · Score: 1

    ...the Terminator movies become a reality then my job is safe at this point in innovation history. As of right now I don't know any way to automate the coding of automation. Believe me if there were a way I would write the code to do it so at least I could be rich before the Terminators take over and kill everyone...LOL!

  44. Missing tthe central point? by ukoda · · Score: 1

    Lots of discussions about why people think their job can't be replaced but not much about why the discrepancy between peoples option of robots replacing other jobs as being different from their self perception.

    I think almost every job has an element that could be automated and therefore could be taken over by robots and also has an element that take human adaptability and could not be done by a robot. It is that later part I think people under estimate in other jobs and over estimate in there own jobs. For example I tend to think of my job as embedded systems engineer more secure that that of a business systems program. I tend think the business programmers do simple stuff of taking a spread sheet and spiting out a report, which could easily be automated, whereas I do analysis of how my product interacts with the real world and low level hardware coding that does not use off the shelf libraries so therefore my job can not easily be automated. So I fit the description of thinking my job safer than others. However a business programmer may think I have under estimated their job as they have to interact with customers to understand what the contents of the spreadsheet really mean and what the report actually needs to show and it only the coding in between that could be automated so their job is secure. They then look at my job and think the only reason it needs skill is a lack of libraries for real world access and low level access and once that was done it could be automated so their job is more secure.

    The reality is jobs will change so the parts that a can be automated will disappear and the part that are hard to automate will remain. As the automation improves the human roles will become more specialised. I do worry the labour market and teaching institutes that support feeding them may be too slow to adapt and some people are going to fall below the intelligence thresholds need for the remaining jobs and this will become a bigger problem over time,

  45. Uuh, yes it is by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Jobs which have higher probability of accident are prime candidates for automation. A robot may not be able to do all the things you described, but if the tower is designed with the idea of automated maintenance as a combined system job loss may yet occur.

    Due to the much increased initial outlay (due to replacing the infrastructure (tower, etc.) in addition to maintenance systems) it wouldn't be among the first jobs to go. But I wouldn't discount it for long term automation, particularly when the tower(s) needs to be replaced in/over 10-50 years due to corrosion, acts of god, incompatible technology improvements, any accident causing public outcry, etc..

  46. My job is to get you fired! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    And I am pretty good at my job.I enjoy getting people fired because that means bonuses for me as it should be! I cannot be made redundant since there won't be any strong AI coming for the next few hundred years, so I am safe. But you, unless you know C++ and machine learning..... you are fucked, my friend! Finally, meritocracy, I've been waiting for this moment so long.... I am like a God, every moron is afraid of me! As it should be! I am the new God. And this is an unmerciful God!

  47. Re:Most people believe that they are above average by iggymanz · · Score: 1

    you're funny, for much of history of civilized world 1% had money and the rest were peasants. very doable and very very long term sustainable.

  48. That's because... by Notabadguy · · Score: 1

    That's because fast food workers aren't sitting around on work hours taking surveys. Truck drivers aren't driving down the road taking surveys. Taxi drivers and uber drivers aren't carting people around while taking surveys.

    Office workers... ...people who generally have some sort of responsibility that involves decision making outside of a yes/no matrix - and thus don't see how their jobs can be automated due to complex troubleshooting and decision making - CAN sit around and do surveys.

    In other obvious news, a recent survey of heavy drinkers shows that a whopping 65% don't believe they have a drinking problem, while only 3% thought that they did.

  49. Americans believe a lot of stupid things by tekrat · · Score: 5, Informative

    1) Owning a gun makes you safer
    2) A big SUV is safer than a smaller car
    3) Donald Trump would make a good president
    4) The poor people are destroying this country
    5) Religion is a good thing
    6) You can trust corporations to police themselves

    --
    If telephones are outlawed, then only outlaws will have telephones.
    1. Re:Americans believe a lot of stupid things by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Actually, other things being equal, a big SUV is safer than a small car.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    2. Re:Americans believe a lot of stupid things by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wow, a stupid list provided without any facts.

      Obama who wasn't exactly pro gun ordered the CDC to do a study on gun ownership in the US with the hopes they would find that it is a public health issue. This completely backfired and the CDC found found the following:

      https://www.nap.edu/read/18319/chapter/1#ix

      1. Armed citizens are less likely to be injured by an attacker
      2. Defensive uses of guns are common
      3. Mass shootings and accidental firearm deaths account for a small fraction of gun-related deaths, and both are declining
      4. “Interventions” (i.e, gun control) such as background checks, so-called assault rifle bans and gun-free zones produce “mixed” results
      5. Gun buyback/turn-in programs are “ineffective” in reducing crime
      6. Stolen guns and retail/gun show purchases account for very little crime
      7. The vast majority of gun-related deaths are not homicides, but suicides

      Seeing as how your first point is so far off the mark, I think it puts the rest of your list mostly suspect as well.

    3. Re:Americans believe a lot of stupid things by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A big Modern SUV is safer than a modern car for most collision types.

    4. Re:Americans believe a lot of stupid things by Gussington · · Score: 1

      Actually, other things being equal, a big SUV is safer than a small car.

      Wrong.
      An SUV might be safer to the people in the SUV in some cases (collision with a smaller object). But for everyone else they are worse off.
      And the more people that buy SUVs makes them less and less safe since there is more chance of crashing into a bigger vehicle, and hence more impact overall.
      The net position is that the more, bigger vehicles we all have, the less safe the roads become.

    5. Re:Americans believe a lot of stupid things by toddestan · · Score: 1

      A surprising large number of accidents though don't involve colliding with another vehicles. Losing control, going off the road, etc. SUVs fair pretty poorly in those kind of accidents - they are more likely to get into them due to their heavier weight and poorer handling in the first place, and are far more likely to roll over in these kind of incidents. That balances out the other types of accidents where they do well, like running head-on into a car that's half their size. So in the end SUVs aren't really any safer per mile traveled, and often fair worse against higher-end cars with the most advanced safety features.

    6. Re:Americans believe a lot of stupid things by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      And, the more people who buy SUVs, the more dangerous the small car becomes. Being in an SUV is safer than being in a small car, no matter what everyone else is buying. You're describing the tragedy of the commons.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    7. Re:Americans believe a lot of stupid things by Gussington · · Score: 1

      Being in an SUV is safer than being in a small car, no matter what everyone else is buying.

      You've changed the argument now. Being in an SUV might be safer than being in a smaller car. But SUVs are not safer overall than a small car (since a proportion of road deaths involve pedestrians and cyclists, who I assume would prefer to be hit by a small car than a small truck).

      This may sound pedantic, but it's actually important since the SUV safety gimmick is based only on the occupants, not anyone else. And road safety should be about all of us. If you are interested in making roads safer for everyone, then the smaller vehicles are preferred.

    8. Re:Americans believe a lot of stupid things by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      I was commenting on the belief that "A big SUV is safer than a smaller car", and for the person who's making the choice of vehicle this is true.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
  50. Re:Correlation is not well many things actually. by sobachatina · · Score: 1

    He never said that all depression is caused by dependence.

    He said dependence causes depression.

    I hope you are able to make it through your depression but your situation has nothing to do with the OP's assertion.

  51. I know a robot won't take my place! by Derekloffin · · Score: 1

    I am a programmer after all... why the hell would they bother with a robot when an AI program would do the trick.

  52. To What End, This Automation? by sycodon · · Score: 1

    The continuing push to automate all areas of the workforce will eventually, in the theory, eliminate the need for a workforce.

    I don't recall reading anything about what people will be doing after that in terms of self fulfillment and societal structures. The paradigm of go to school, get a good job, raise a family, save for retirement, will be blown up. To be replaced by what?

    And don't start with the pie in the sky bullshit. Policy is what will determine the outcome. Is anyone thinking about that?

    --
    When Fascism comes to America, it will call itself Anti-Fascism, and tell you to give up your guns.
    1. Re:To What End, This Automation? by fluffernutter · · Score: 1

      A lot of Slashdotters will tell you that the paradigm didn't really ever exist. That the ones that get a job and work there until retirement (like my dad and a lot of friends' parents did) were just lucky.

      --
      Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
    2. Re:To What End, This Automation? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      To be replaced by... nothing.

      I don't see why you feel entitled to be given something in exchange, just because you're American. The simplest answer is that the problem will solve itself. Families will realize for themselves that without a job the cost of living is too high to raise kids, and those kids will just be disappointed by not having a place in the world either. So there will be a trend over a couple of generations where the birth rate will go down and the unemployed masses will disappear. In the meantime, the disgruntled who have already been born but won't have a job can be usefully employed in military operations which is always a nice way to encourage people to sacrifice themselves for the greater good.

  53. Enclosure in Britain by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You could model expected outcome based on Enclosure in Britain. If sheep devour people in English world, Robots could do the same.

  54. Re:Most people believe that they are above average by OrangeTide · · Score: 1

    And those peasants produced food, not robots. And for much of history they worked as serfs, they were able to use land to grow food in exchange for a portion of that food. (and typically it had to be wheat or something else easily traded and not whatever the serfs felt like growing)

    If you want to draw parallels to history, great, I'm very interested in that. But at least get the details right instead of waving your hand at the changes that have occurred in the last five thousand years.

    --
    “Common sense is not so common.” — Voltaire
  55. Doesn't apply to you by OrangeTide · · Score: 1

    Of course you're the exception in all of this. I can tell from your comment history.

    --
    “Common sense is not so common.” — Voltaire
    1. Re:Doesn't apply to you by iggymanz · · Score: 1

      Yes, paid attention in school then worked for a living without being a special entitled parasite on others. Half the country should give that a try.

    2. Re:Doesn't apply to you by OrangeTide · · Score: 1

      You might want to work on difference between "you're" and "your".

      --
      “Common sense is not so common.” — Voltaire
    3. Re:Doesn't apply to you by iggymanz · · Score: 1

      My phone's autocorrect might but I'm too busy being content not being rich.

  56. So humans think what robots want them to think... by ffkom · · Score: 1

    great, all going according to plan of our new robot overlords!

  57. Doctors next by FeelGood314 · · Score: 2

    My doctor is just a very expensive diagnostics machine - not an overly great one. She's always diagnosing the same model, she now uses other machines to measure temperature, heart rate and blood pressure. If she need to measure blood chemistry she sends me to another machine. She spends 60% of her time filling out paper work and I can't read her writing.

    The last humans working in the clinic are going to be the cleaning staff.

    1. Re:Doctors next by JustNiz · · Score: 1

      If she's anything like my doctor, their whole purpose is actually to get you onto more pills to alleviate symptoms, not identify root-causes or actually cure anything. Once you realise that they are actually commission-based salesmen working for the drug companies, the whole thing becomes a lot easier to understand.

  58. Except when they won't... by BadTuna · · Score: 1

    There aren’t enough people doing a job like mine to make it feasible for anyone to write a program to replace me.

    --
    Your sig here!
  59. First rule by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ... believe they won't be taking yours.

    First rule of a superiority complex: Everyone else has to obey the rules. To be fair, if the survey respondents were knowledge-based professionals, they were probably correct. If the respondents were mechanics and receptionists, where the employee stays in a relatively constant environs, they were absolutely mistaken.

  60. Not so fast Robots by RubberDogBone · · Score: 1

    Just started working in a famous fast food chain restaurant, where I USED to say they could automate the place and get rid of the employees.

    But that was before I started working there and found out just how much goes on in the back to make sure you can get your double burger for a dollar. Namely, a LOT of cleaning. Pans, racks, bins, tools, huge cooker parts. All of it is greasy and gets filthy and has to be cleaned all the time. Putting in a robot to make burgers might be easy but who is going to pull out the grease bin and carefully dump it? Who is going to clean all the other grill parts and other crap?

    Seriously, probably 70% of the effort spent on any food item is in the prep and clean before and after. Cooking and assembling the food is a small part.

    They will have totally re engineer the restaurant to accommodate automated production. Every single part will need to be redesigned and tested. And it may still happen but not any time soon.

    --
    Sig for hire.
    1. Re: Not so fast Robots by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If it is all robots why wld they need to carefully dump the grease (which can already be done by robotic arm btw)?

    2. Re:Not so fast Robots by InfiniteLoopCounter · · Score: 2

      For fast food automation here's a link to a short story called Manna by Marshall Brain that I've seen a few times on /. and is a good read. It covers an idea for the "automation" of cleaning at a burger chain that seems quite disturbingly possible.

  61. Less associates or more lawsuits ? by DrYak · · Score: 1

    The big question I was trying to raise in my above post is :
    - are young associate lawyers being made redundant by OCR and AI, to the point that they are fired and we see even less lawyers nowadays than before ?
    or :
    - are OCR and AI enabling the young associate lawyers to do much more work for the law firm (e.g.: now they can use google to search online through a large corpus of archive, instead of painstakingly going through microfiche in the basement of some government archive), so that the law firm can process even more lawsuits. To the point that we see even more and more lawsuits and other legal cases everywhere than there used to be in the past ?

    My current impression of all the information I find online is that law suits and other legal proceedings are actually on the rise.
    (e.g.: the several million of DMCA take-downs issued by the brazillian equivalent of **AA against an obscure "mp3toys" downloading website).
    We're not seeing *less* laywers, we are seeing lawyers being more busy thanks to the modern computing tools.

    Or in another field : Watson isn't putting medical doctors jobless on the street. Watson is helping process more of the simple stupid cases that could otherwise swamp a doctor's office. It helps doctors process even more patients cheaper than before thus bringing more affordable healthcare to the population.

    --
    "Sufficiently advanced satire is indistinguishable from reality." - [Tips: 1DrYakQDKCQ6y52z6QbnkxHXAocMZJE61o ]
    1. Re: Less associates or more lawsuits ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So the question should be. If everyone in your profession would be 10 times more productive, would everyone still have full time work to do?

  62. Some are more equal than others by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The pigs who took the leadership roles were the ones who took the most advantage of the system.

    This was also the case in most of the experiments with Socialism & Communism.

  63. Re:Most people believe that they are above average by iggymanz · · Score: 1

    yes those peasants produced and had wealth confiscated from them, for example for wars of expansion of territory or for grudges. My example was great, it's a long term sustainable model of a few elite having their foot on the necks of the majority.

  64. Your wages are going to drop like a rock by rsilvergun · · Score: 1

    when all those folks in the Data Center get the same idea you have. Most won't be very good at it. A few will. They'll try mighty hard since in most places if you don't work, you don't eat...

    --
    Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
  65. Some jobs are safe - because of the law by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    My job is not safe. I acknowledge that. But some jobs are safe for the forseeable future. Because robots cannot legally do the job. Just because an artificial intelligence is better at diagnosing some medical conditions than human doctors does not mean that the human doctor's job is at risk because most states limit the practice of medicine to doctors who have a license and a doctor has to complete an undergraduate degree program and medical school and residency and pass a license exam. Similarly for lawyers, most states require the practice of the legal profession be limited to licensed attorneys. Just buy a senator or two to get your profession protected. Add the requirement for "a human" to hold your position.

  66. Re:Correlation is not well many things actually. by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    Well if he would distinguish his statements from all the other buffoons who insist that if only I'd get off the government dole and get a job, all would be right in the world, that would be great!

  67. Very few people do jobs that exists 100 years ago by sl149q · · Score: 1

    How many people reading this work in a job that existed 100 or even 50 years ago.

    The vast majority of people working today do jobs that simply didn't exist before they where born.

    It is also probable that the vast majority of people working now are doing a job that will end before they are dead.

  68. The one safe job by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Bathroom attendant in a transgender bathroom. Ain't no robot can do that without laughing its head off at the transsexuals.

  69. My business card says by mnemotronic · · Score: 1

    Gaskin Ridgway
    Pyrotechnic Robot Disassembly

    --
    The Russians have won. They have made the world a cesspool of distrust, greed, fear and hate.
  70. Re:Imagine by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That's a robot answer if I've ever heard one! That or you're Vulcan. Whichever.

  71. "Robot" is to specific a term for your replacment by cyanman · · Score: 1
    People have a tendency to think of "robot" as that Issac Asimov or Will Smith autonomous animatron. That is not what will replace you.

    If you sit in an office looking at a screen for a living, your job will be replaced by an automated process as soon as someone writes a scriptable workflow process to assume those duties. I regularly deal with decision makers who say - If you can replace an employee with a system that only costs twice as much as their annual burden rate, I can sign off on it tomorrow. Three times or more than salary and benefits takes a few weeks for approval. Maybe it won't be one robot process that takes your place, but over time all your job are belong to us. One of the sales reps I work with puts it like this - I can provide you with an idiot savant who can only do 12 things, but do them with absolute accuracy and repeat-ability three shift a day 365 days a year with no benefits, over time or vacation, and who would never call in sick or have a sick child. How much will you pay?

    Take every thing you do every day and write down the steps to accomplish them. If you can write them down they can be automated. Today its the routine AR processing and check writing, tomorrow its the scan/capture/index/search/retrieve/respond portion. Then the iPad based receptionist or the first & second level help desk support. Outside of the office there are initiatives like the push to automate over the road truck driving so move to the driving of the delivery trucks to the replaced list. Maybe it can't fully replace an employee, but reducing 1/3 of a workload from 4 people is often better. Once the number of people in the office drops 75% they drop the coffee service and the frequency of sandwich delivery at lunch goes from 3 times a week to 3 times a month so those jobs get cut as well. Sure someone probably has to ride the cherry picker up to bolt the sign on the post for the local mega mart, but how many of those jobs are there?

  72. Totem pole. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You may accept, by now, that robots will take over lots of jobs currently held by human workers. But you probably believe they won't be taking yours.

    I'm retired. I'd like to see a robot take that.

  73. Re:Vulcan by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    Yeah, I had to learn to pattern myself after the Vulcans to handle unwanted negative emotions when I was little. Young Vulcans get such flak for being illogical, and I'm like how people just don't get why Vulcans put so much emphasis on being logical in the first place. They all basically start out born with out of control emotions. They need logic to get all that under control. I sometimes think I don't know how the Romulans do it, but when I take a good look, I might be more like the Romulans than the Vulcans.

  74. Re:Importing jobs by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    I've started seeing it as importing jobs. A job is better thought of as a good, the same as any other consumable. It's pointless to view jobs and money as significantly different entities from things that you exchange money for.

  75. Re:Correlation is not well many things actually. by MightyYar · · Score: 1

    Consider it distinguished. I'm sorry for your situation, but I was talking statistically and I'm sure you recognize that you are a sample size of one.

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  76. Re:Propensity for being nuisances by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    You don't know my father's side of the family. They are well off, but are rather fond of attacking one another. I have that trait but have curbed it, but I also have health problems preventing me from being well off. My dad sued his brother for really stupid reasons.
    https://www.youtube.com/result... Some of them want to abuse you.

  77. mostly right by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The first 3 are clearly correct.

    The next, about poor people, is mostly correct but kind of implies that rich people aren't also destroying this country. Very roughly, the least-destructive tend to be the people between the 50th and 95th percentile.

    People gravitate toward religion. The less-explody ones are kind of good, serving as mental vaccination against the more-explody ones.

    As for the corporations... :-(

  78. Attrition by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    What I've been hearing is that as workers quit or retire, they aren't hired in replacement numbers. On a personal note, Nurse Practitioners have replaced the doctors I would have been seeing.

  79. Observed job growth by hackwrench · · Score: 1

    YouTubers and Microsoft paying in points. Mechanical Turk is also an area that exists, but that can mostly get automated. Oh and research participation, which can also be found on Mechanical Turk.

  80. Trump by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    THIS is why people voted for Trump.

  81. The election turned on this issue by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

    We had enough people out of work who were desperate enough that they voted a demagogue into power.

    Add just a few million more people to the unemployment line with no hope of a job and you can permanently kiss the country goodbye.

    --
    She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
  82. You know your job. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It comes down to knowing what it takes to do your job, but not knowing what it takes to doing anyone else job. Most jobs are likely impossible for a robot to take over, an AI can only do so much, a real brain have a better time solving new problems.

  83. You have absolutely no idea what the hell you're by rsilvergun · · Score: 2, Insightful

    talking about.

    Gettos aren't "nice little teapots of dependence" (you're right about the misery part though). They're examples of what systemic poverty does to people.

    Katrina was exactly what happens when there isn't an organized response to a large scale disaster. It happened because Bush/Cheney diverted resources meant for disaster preparedness to the war in Iraq (and by extension their own pockets).

    Folks don't get depressed by dependency. If they did Paul Ryan (who's family's fortune was made paving roads for the government) would be suicidal. People get depressed by constant set backs in their lives caused by the one step forward, two back that is the high cost of being poor.

    I'd like to say you're just somebody who never experienced real hardship in lift by I know better. Even folks who experience hardship soon forget it unless their characters are among the best (FDR comes to mind. Liz Warren & Sanders, Alan Grayson, Robert Reich).

    Don't kid yourself. You're not being compassionate or decent. At best you're making yourself feel better and at worst you're twisting the knife in the guts of the poor.

    --
    Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
  84. I actually try to replace me with robots by LostMyBeaver · · Score: 1

    I'm actually 100% dedicated to taking my job and automating it.

    If I do my job well, I'll be obsolete soon.

    Then I'll get another job and do the same thing.

  85. they are not going to take mine by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Cause I am a hooker.

  86. Suddenly by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Suddenly the "will never work" experiment with universal income makes sence. Just tax the companies enough to pay for it.

  87. Since our IT industry... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Is primarily composed of foreign scientists and engineers, don't expect the US to be the world leader in standards or innovation. In fact, it's happening right now: foreign students take STEM courses all throughout their educational career.

    We have people who don't know the 3 branches of government, think the Bible was a documentary, and think the sun revolves around the earth. In other words: we're fucked.

  88. I saw a video by kilodelta · · Score: 1

    Now even Boeing is getting into using robots to construct the 777. It's interesting because the robots are essentially at the dumb terminal phase.

  89. Lawyers and judges first! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Please please please H1B and robotize the lawyers and judges!!!!!!

  90. FOOLS ! by JimSadler · · Score: 1

    Robots and automation will replace almost 100% of human workers. And there are some really odd things to think about. Today we talk about the problem of cheap labor in other nations. And that should be a dead issue. Now, it is can my nation's robots work better and cheaper than your nations robots. Entire industries will collapse. And we are also on the verge of the really huge, next big thing. Nobody knows exactly what it will be but it is time. We have a pile of very powerful technologies that are very close to emerging as the various elements are so close to blooming. It just might be a breakthrough in AI that suddenly makes computers far more powerful than anything we imagine at this moment.

  91. What happened to value creation? by saulhead · · Score: 1

    Why are we still talking about robots talking our jobs? I think it's the other way around. Why are we not talking about not wasting our time doing things that can easily be done by a robot? In society, we are compensated because of our abilities to create value. So, a human fully focused on creating value should not be worried about being replaced by a robot. In fact, a human not able to create value SHOULD be worried by ANOTHER HUMAN replacing her because of her ability to create value. Even before any robots existed! That nonsense job-creation talk is merely reinforcing an outdated social/political/capitalistic agenda about "creating jobs". I think we should be talking about value creation, and fully focus on narrowing the tech gap, to begin with. Fortunately, that can only be done by humans, and will remain so for several decades to come.

  92. The manufacturers are actually the most in danger by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The technology is bringing manufacturing into people's houses. That and artistry (and sticking together for self-preservation) are our only hope. And in a field where all the restaurants work with robots, the way to stand out is to have human help. That is how we fight them.

  93. Our Robots by Zamphatta · · Score: 1

    As humans die out from their self imposed destruction via global warming, our robots will continue on, surviving through the environment we made that was unlivable for us. Someday robots will be made by robots, whose purpose will be to terraform the earth into a habitable place for humans again and they will recreate us from old DNA samples they find or have stored away. Then we'll take some of their jobs.

  94. Re:You have absolutely no idea what the hell you'r by MightyYar · · Score: 1

    They're examples of what systemic poverty does to people.

    How is utter dependence not part of systemic poverty?

    It happened because Bush/Cheney diverted resources meant for disaster preparedness to the war in Iraq (and by extension their own pockets).

    That's the response. Few such resources would have been necessary if people had actually evacuated.

    If they did Paul Ryan (who's family's fortune was made paving roads for the government) would be suicidal.

    You are being obtuse. Surely you recognize that I am not talking about government contractors or people who simply work for the government.

    I'd like to say you're just somebody who never experienced real hardship in lift by I know better.

    No, you'd be absolutely correct. I've lived a charmed life - my parents were not rich, but they made sure that I had a roof over my head, all the schooling I could eat, and they frankly spoiled me rotten. I used this opportunity to get a useful degree that pays well (engineering), and I haven't had any major health issues. But despite that, I understand just how quickly it can all go south. I could easily have had a car accident or major health problem that caused me to lose my job and health insurance. I could easily have wound up on disability and utter dependence on government. But that's not really what I'm talking about here. My wife works at a hospital in a very poor area. The people who live there are generally able of body, but they use their minds to game the system because that is the incentive structure that they are presented with. Their schools suck, their upbringing is violent, and they develop no skill set beyond gaming the system. I'm not blaming them, I'm not judging them. Yet, from the perspective of the people setting up the programs that are intended to help them, they are indeed acting like "douchebags" - misusing the system. My contention is that the system is what is broken - the incentives are all misaligned with the goals of bringing people out of poverty.

    You're not being compassionate or decent.

    Defending the status quo is also not compassionate.

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  95. human genius thinking cant be replaced by robots by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Robots cant take anyone out of their jobs until they can inherit the Brain of human Beings
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  96. I think mine is safe. by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

    I think my job is safe, unless they figure a way to automate retirement.