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Every Other Summer Will Shatter Heat Records Within a Decade (vice.com)

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Motherboard: Think of the stickiest, record-hot summer you've ever experienced, whether you're 30 or 60 years old. In 10 years or less, that miserable summer will happen every second year across most of the U.S. and Canada, the Mediterranean, and much of Asia, according to a study to be published in the open access journal Earth's Future. By the 2030s, every second summer over almost all of the entire Northern hemisphere will be hotter than any record-setting hot summer of the past 40 years, the study found. By 2050, virtually every summer will be hotter than anything we've experienced to date. Record hot summers are now 70 times more likely than they were in the past 40 years over the entire Northern hemisphere, the peer-reviewed study found. What does all this mean? Heat alerts will be increasing, cities will have to employ aggressive cooling strategies most summers, and in places like South Asia, it will be too dangerous to work outside, Francis Zwiers, director of the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium at Canada's University of Victoria, said.

322 comments

  1. I know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Let's have a parade!

    1. Re:I know by freeze128 · · Score: 2

      OK. You bring the ice.

    2. Re:I know by fizzer06 · · Score: 2

      It's too hot. Think I'll stay inside under the AC.

    3. Re:I know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Fuckin right. As long as I also get that +10 degrees bump in January, I'm all for it. By the time shit gets *really* bad I'll be dead and the planet can fucking burn for all I care.

    4. Re:I know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      AC typically has the capability to cool about 30F-40F. Guess what happens once heat waves get too hot? Everyone has to buy special industrial air conditioners that use even more power, lol.

    5. Re:I know by houstonbofh · · Score: 1

      Or a ground source heat pump.

    6. Re:I know by omnichad · · Score: 1

      Woosh? Maybe? I think the parent poster meant Anonymous Coward as a pun - since their comment is under the AC. If not, I bet they wish they did.

    7. Re: I know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This article is trash, it fails to acknowledge the cyclical patterns of the sun. The 2030's are going to be in the meander minimum, that means LOWER SOLAR OUTPUT!

    8. Re: I know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If things keep going south you will be dead sooner than you think...

    9. Re:I know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Fuckin right. As long as I also get that +10 degrees bump in January, I'm all for it. By the time shit gets *really* bad I'll be dead and the planet can fucking burn for all I care.

      As long as I get that +10% bonus bump every quarter, I'm all for it. If shit gets *really* bad I'll pull my golden parachute and the company can fucking burn for all I care.

      - The CxO Manifesto

    10. Re:I know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Fuckin right. As long as I also get that +10 degrees bump in January, I'm all for it. By the time shit gets *really* bad I'll be dead and the planet can fucking burn for all I care.

      Found the Republican!

    11. Re: I know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Lol what

    12. Re: I know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Wrong, stated, old style air-conditioning could cool you 30 to 40 degrees f. Not the new stuff. The new stuff is not as effective as the old. Maybe that's why it was outlawed.

    13. Re: I know by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 1

      He was trying to say Maunder Minimum, but we have no way of telling what the trough or peak of a solar cycle (other than the short-term 11-year cycle) will be. That's why we can only assign names to them long after the fact.

    14. Re:I know by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      There is this problem that people live in areas that will feel the heat (literally so) quite soon. And they will want to go where you are now. With no alternative, get in or die trying.

      In other words, you'll soon have to decide whether you want to share or shoot.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    15. Re: I know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, I donâ(TM)t own a car, and I havenâ(TM)t flow for over 10 years. All the finger-waggers own cars, though, and they fly home every holiday, before going to Europe on vacation. Kind of stange given their concern for the planet. Unless ... theyâ(TM)re not concerned about the planet at all, and are just in it for the moral panic and the dopamine release being on the âoerightâ side of said panic brings. Nah, I am sure that their concern is genuine, and theyre just going on European vacations to help them forget about the coming super-hot summers. Yeah, Im almost sure thats it.

    16. Re: I know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      and non-breeder...guess thats why they r pushing anti-abortion to force women to carry to term
      and isnt forced labor the very definition of slavery?
      gop/confederacy is no coincidence

    17. Re: I know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Seriously this. The next liberal cunt that gets mad about Trump whatever , or stupid suv driving rednecks, and then talks about their last flight abroad, or their drive to the mountains, or whatever ... can ... drown in their fucking hypocrisy.

      *I'm not a trump supporter or suv driving redneck.

      Most people really just don't give a fuck.

    18. Re: I know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Eat shit, boomer

    19. Re: I know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Most airplanes are operating at 50-100 passenger miles per gallon.

    20. Re: I know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Uh, seems like the expected operational figures of a outside ac unit would in fact corrilate to the outside tempature. I know Jim!

  2. Adjust History Accordingly by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    So what you are saying is that the temperature history will be adjusted downward every other year instead of waiting for a ten year decline to adjust the temperautre history?

    1. Re:Adjust History Accordingly by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why the fuck would you need to "adjust downward" temperature history? 30 years ago we had extended periods of heavy frost every winter where I live. These past few years, we've had trees with leaves on them and even flowers blooming in December.

    2. Re:Adjust History Accordingly by AutodidactLabrat · · Score: 1

      He's playing the "Hockey Stick is a lie" game

  3. Testable predictions by Okian+Warrior · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Those are testable predictions.

    If we do *not* get the results predicted by the study above, would that invalidate the theory of global warming?

    If not, what testable predictions does the global warming theory make, whose failure *would* invalidate the theory?

    1. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      "If we do *not* get the results predicted by the study above, would that invalidate the theory of global warming?"

      It's not a theory, its observations and a set of models. The observations comes from many sources, and the models of that also come from many sources.

      Do you dispute the observation of "its getting hotter"? Do you dispute the models? Which one(s)?

      Let me guess, Fox viewer.

    2. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      The so-called "weather" "men" are just making up fake temperatures to try to make hard working Republicans look like the bad guys when we deliver value to our shareholders by lobbying against the EPA. So sad.

    3. Re:Testable predictions by Waffle+Iron · · Score: 5, Interesting

      If we do *not* get the results predicted by the study above, would that invalidate the theory of global warming?

      I'm not sure about that, but I'm pretty sure of one thing:

      If we *do* get the results predicted by the study above, you're going to deny them anyway.

    4. Re:Testable predictions by Uberbah · · Score: 2

      Those are testable predictions.

      So is looking at the sun. During the last eclipse, did you look at it without special glasses? Did you stare at it without glasses during non-eclipse times, just to verify that those astronomers advising caution weren't pushing some librul agenda?

    5. Re:Testable predictions by Capsaicin · · Score: 4, Insightful

      If we do *not* get the results predicted by the study above, would that invalidate the theory of global warming?

      Does this single study comprise the entirety of modern climatological theory as it pertains to observed warming?

      If not, what testable predictions does the global warming theory make, whose failure *would* invalidate the theory?

      More generally, You seem to be working from a naive Falsificationist view of science. Your question is like asking "what testable prediction does astrophysics make whose failure should make us revert to a pre-scientific belief (eg. that stars are cracks in the firmament through which we can glimpse the cosmic fire?)." We cannot abandon theory simply because some testable hypothesis was 'falsified.' Theory is not to be invalidated but supplanted.

      Specifically, if temperatures global temperatures would just stop rising decade upon decade, and instead began to fall decade upon decade, and if this fall were not readily to be explained by current theory, that should open the door to the acceptance of a more productive alternative theory once that theory became available.

      --
      Better to be despised for too anxious apprehensions, than ruined by too confident a security. --Edmund Burke
    6. Re:Testable predictions by Tiggywinkle · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I feel like I'm taking crazy pills on here sometimes. The theories presented by climate change science have given temperature ranges time and time again, and they have been proven time and time again as being accurate. Those temperature ranges presented over the past 30 years by the widely peer reviewed and referenced papers would be the ones you disprove, but they already have been borne out as true. We are past the stage where we are looking to test the new numbers - we will continue to as we always have of course - but if you keep waiting for more and more evidence on top of the already overwhelming scientific consensus, wtf is the point of any of the god dam science? Your arse would be on fire before you decide not to sit on the stove top.

    7. Re:Testable predictions by quantaman · · Score: 5, Informative

      Those are testable predictions.

      If we do *not* get the results predicted by the study above, would that invalidate the theory of global warming?

      No, it would invalidate the results of this specific piece of research.

      Well, partially invalidate... their model is statistical so fail or succeed analysis of what specifically happened would be required to figure out if their results were correct. It could be their research was flawless but some nutjob started WWIII and caused a Nuclear winter.

      If not, what testable predictions does the global warming theory make, whose failure *would* invalidate the theory?

      1) Carbon continues to skyrocket but temperatures plummet or even plateau.
      2) Another mechanism is found that better explains the temperatures.
      3) More research suggests that the positive feedbacks won't kick in, or at least not to the extent we predict.
      4) A negative feedback is discovered that will counteract the warming and the positive feedbacks.
      5) It turns out there's a bad assumption shared by all the models, and if you correct it the extreme warming goes away.

      The only one that feels remotely plausible is #3, and maybe a little bit of #5 (though 5 could go the other way and underestimate the warming), but even there the certainty is growing stronger, not weaker.

      The obvious follow-up question is what could convince you that AGW is a real thing?

      --
      I stole this Sig
    8. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      It's all a conspiracy.

      China is in on it. So are 98% of scientists. NASA satellite designers are in on it, probably Hilary, the weather channel is in on it, the people who monitor CO2 levels in the atmosphere, they're in on it too. Elon Musk? he is soooo in on this conspiracy. Wikipedia? Up to its eyeballs in this conspiracy. The people who make thermometers, they're the worst of all. Those polar researchers and their ice measurements? Ice floats, so if it melts it would raise sea level by zero, Hannity said so, so that's proof that they're in on it too! The people who measure sea levels, in on it. All those hurricane victims, actors, all fake. Entomolgists and their 'insects species collapse', in on it. The UN? Totally behind it all, how else could all of this be co-ordinated.

      It's all a cunning plan to stop the US mining its coal reserves, they came up with the plan in the 70s, and you're all falling for it.

      How else can you explain away a model of global warming backed up by consistent global warming! Conspiracy that's how! That's the only possible explanation!

    9. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      It would depend on the reason for not getting the predicted results.

      But you're creating invalid arguments to confuse the issue. The theory of global warming is already proven as much as anything can be proven in science. You can replicate the experiments in your kitchen. Certain molecules in the air cause more irradiated heat to be retained than other molecules. That's all there is too it. If that small, controlled experiment suddenly stopped working then scientists would be scrambling trying to find a reason for a fundamental shift in the laws of physics and lots of nerd will proclaim we're living in the matrix. Since the Earth is a complex ecosystem, it's hard to predict how much of what will cause exactly what effect as changes in one attribute dynamically cause changes in other things, but none of that invalidates the theory. It only refines the estimates of the effects.

      The argument of if global warming is man-made or not is bullshit designed to let companies to continue polluting. The cause doesn't matter as the effects are the same: major issues to current human life. Sure, humans will survive and the planet will survive, but not life as we live it today. Global cooling would be nearly as bad.

      If I rolled a die and saw the number four in 15 rolls out of 18, does that invalidate the theory that any side on the die has a 1 in 6 chance of being rolled? Hell no. But you might start to look to see if there's another variable at play. Earth has lots of unknown variables, but that doesn't mean we should ignore the ones we do know.

    10. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      China makes BILLIONS from AGW.. they stand to make TRILLIONS if the world decides to change the temperature.

      China doesnt believe it enough though.. they plan to increase emissions until 2035.

    11. Re:Testable predictions by slashrio · · Score: 1, Troll

      The predictions are theories.
      And indeed bad predictions, as the models are, as I many times already have pointed out, calibrated on existing data, while trying to 'predict' not-yet-existing data. Every mathematician with a basic understanding of modeling can tell you that.
      As with stock markets: "Results from the past are no guarantee of results in the future."

      --
      "Trump!!", the new Godwin.
    12. Re:Testable predictions by slashrio · · Score: 1

      Well, if they predicted a temperature increase during the next 20 years, and it actually gets cooler, the 'theory' will be thoroughly falsified.

      --
      "Trump!!", the new Godwin.
    13. Re:Testable predictions by houstonbofh · · Score: 0

      I live in Houston. I watched the "models" for Harvey. I saw the mass of spaghetti squirm and shift daily, and even hourly. So, no, I do not blindly trust the models.

    14. Re:Testable predictions by vux984 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      "If not, what testable predictions does the global warming theory make, whose failure *would* invalidate the theory?"

      A scientist has predicted superbugs that will prove immune to all known antibiotics will decimate humanity within the century. What if that doesn't happen? Does that invalidate the theory of natural selection?

      A scientist has predicted a mega-earthquake off the coast of British within the next hundred years. If that doesn't happen, would that invalidate the theory of plate tectonics?

      That's about how absurd your position is.

      Climate models are making all kinds of predictions, and lots of the predictions are coming true. And every time one fails we refine the models. What do you really expect ... the observational data we have doesn't change, we just keep adding more... the new models still have to fit the data. There is no theory here you can slay at a single stroke with one test.

      Even if a super volcano went off and the resulting clouds of dust sent the world into an unscheduled ice-age that wouldn't invalidate the theories behind climate change. It just obviously means any model that didn't incorporate this new event would not predict anything useful.

    15. Re:Testable predictions by Xenx · · Score: 2

      If most people better educated than me in a given field told me that something was most likely correct, I would assume it to be accurate unless/until there was verifiable evidence strong enough to invalidate it.

    16. Re:Testable predictions by Capsaicin · · Score: 1

      Obviously you are replying to the wrong comment. Strangely, I still can't anyone above who made the statement you quote??

      --
      Better to be despised for too anxious apprehensions, than ruined by too confident a security. --Edmund Burke
    17. Re: Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Troll

      Duplicate AGW in my kitchen?

      You're so naive and ignorant about climate it's hard to know where to start on the difference in complexity between the trivial kitchen jar nonsense you're babbling about and the wildly complex events occurring across our entire planet as it travels through space.

      Where to begin? It's hopeless. I give up.

    18. Re: Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I expect real scientists to stop deleting raw data and manipulating the numbers with statistics games. Unfortunately, that's too much to ask of most climate "scientists".

    19. Re:Testable predictions by Capsaicin · · Score: 1

      If most people better educated than me in a given field told me that something was most likely correct, I would assume it to be accurate unless/until there was verifiable evidence strong enough to invalidate it.

      Well yes. However slashrio is somewhat wide of the mark, if he believes that my post above was arguing in favour of an expert consensus view of science (however arguable that position might be).

      --
      Better to be despised for too anxious apprehensions, than ruined by too confident a security. --Edmund Burke
    20. Re:Testable predictions by PopeRatzo · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I live in Houston.

      Are you old enough to remember when Houston actually had a "winter"? Because I am.

      I watched the "models" for Harvey.

      You should take a walk over to Rice University and ask one of the freshmen to explain the difference between "weather" and "climate". Better yet, take a drive down to NASA and ask an actual scientist to explain global warming to you.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    21. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Paragraphs 1 and 2 pretty well demonstrate (what I assume was) his point.

    22. Re:Testable predictions by Dutchmaan · · Score: 2

      The so-called "weather" "men" are just making up fake temperatures to try to make hard working Republicans look like the bad guys when we deliver value to our shareholders by lobbying against the EPA. So sad.

      Is "the man" "keepin' you down" and preventing you from from screwing over every living soul you know and selling every scrap of resource you can to the highest bidder so you can be king of the trash pit.

    23. Re:Testable predictions by riverat1 · · Score: 2

      They have been wrong for the last 20 and it didn't falsify it then...

      How have they been wrong specifically? Even during the so called "pause" there was no statistically significant* change in the increasing temperature trend and the oceans where over 90% of the heat goes continued to get warmer.

      * Statistical analysis of temperature trends

    24. Re:Testable predictions by riverat1 · · Score: 2

      I live in Houston. I watched the "models" for Harvey. I saw the mass of spaghetti squirm and shift daily, and even hourly. So, no, I do not blindly trust the models.

      Tell me exactly how climate models and hurricane models are related again? Climate models aren't trying to predict the temperature an hour from now or 12 hours from now 5 days from now. They're trying to predict how the average temperature will change over a 30 year period or more.

    25. Re: Testable predictions by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      I wish you guys would stop with this "deleting raw data" thing. It hasn't happened. Here's some of it.

    26. Re:Testable predictions by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      I remember the max temperature of 323 in 1990, It sucked, but not any more than any other summer day.

    27. Re:Testable predictions by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      I did,but not for any longer than I normally stare at the sun. Think I'll develop eye cancer in the next 50 years?

    28. Re:Testable predictions by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      Those are testable predictions.

      If we do *not* get the results predicted by the study above, would that invalidate the theory of global warming?

      If not, what testable predictions does the global warming theory make, whose failure *would* invalidate the theory?

      Of course it would be wrong to expect it to happen every other year like clockwork but to expect it to be the average over a 15 or 20 year period

    29. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If most people better educated than me in a given field told me that something was most likely correct, I would assume it to be accurate unless/until there was verifiable evidence strong enough to invalidate it.

      Most Christian religious scholars claim God exists, Jesus is his son, and the only path to heaven is through Christianity. There is no verifiable evidence strong enough to invalidate that claim.

      Most Islamic religious scholars claim God exists, Jesus is not his son, and the only path to heaven is through Islam. There is no verifiable evidence strong enough to invalidate that claim.

      Your belief system must be exhausting.

    30. Re:Testable predictions by The+Cynical+Critic · · Score: 1

      If we do *not* get the results predicted by the study above, would that invalidate the theory of global warming?

      No, all it would invalidate would be the particular pattern of warming suggested by the theory. To debunk global warming in general would require not only a stop to the warming, but also a sustained period of cooling, which we haven't seen that since accurate record keeping began in the 1850s.

      Seriously, arguing against global warning or trying to debunk it really is in the same league as flat earth theory or the idea that the earth is at the center of the solar system.

      --
      "Why should I want to make anything up? Life's bad enough as it is without wanting to invent any more of it."
    31. Re: Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do we really still discuss climate change instead of solutions? For Christ sake...

    32. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I live in Houston. I watched the "models" for Harvey. I saw the mass of spaghetti squirm and shift daily, and even hourly. So, no, I do not blindly trust the models.

      No matter how inaccurate that mass of spaghetti ever is, there is no denying that a hurricane exists. There's also no doubt in anyone's mind that weather patterns have created what we now call a hurricane season.

      If weather statistics continue to confirm a pattern of warming, remaining in denial about it is going to be as fucking stupid as being in hurricane denial.

      CAPTCHA: remodels (irony FTW)

    33. Re:Testable predictions by Joce640k · · Score: 1

      I did,but not for any longer than I normally stare at the sun.

      Why not?

      --
      No sig today...
    34. Re:Testable predictions by The123king · · Score: 1
      It is a theory. Just like Gravity is a theory, evolution is a theory and General Relativity is a theory. Just because something is called a "theory" doesn't mean it's not widely accepted as truth.

      As taken from Wikipedia

      The formal scientific definition of "theory" is quite different from the everyday meaning of the word. It refers to a comprehensive explanation of some aspect of nature that is supported by a vast body of evidence. Many scientific theories are so well established that no new evidence is likely to alter them substantially. For example, no new evidence will demonstrate that the Earth does not orbit around the sun (heliocentric theory), or that living things are not made of cells (cell theory), that matter is not composed of atoms, or that the surface of the Earth is not divided into solid plates that have moved over geological timescales (the theory of plate tectonics)...One of the most useful properties of scientific theories is that they can be used to make predictions about natural events or phenomena that have not yet been observed.

      --
      If you gave me a choice between a printer and a giraffe with explosive diarrhoea, i'll get my ladder and my raincoat
    35. Re: Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Don't you have a holocaust or a mass shooting to deny?

    36. Re:Testable predictions by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 2

      I live in houston and I watched the models for Harvey. The models considered most reliable were dead on from days before it landed. I recall the weathermen saying the rain projections seemed too high.

      I spent weeks helping flooded people rip out wet sheetrock and wet insulation in areas that had *never flooded in the 50 years since the houses were built*.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    37. Re:Testable predictions by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 2

      I remember walking to elementary school in the late 1960s with *ice* on the ground for several weeks. We had about 4-6 week long cold winters.

      These days, we don't even get below freezing for more than a few hours (never for days in a row).

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    38. Re: Testable predictions by Barsteward · · Score: 1

      aahh.. yet another gullible conspiracy theorist

      --
      "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
    39. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      But 3 and 4 don't really invalidate the theory of CO2 causing global warming. It would save us from its effects though...

    40. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      If we do *not* get the results predicted by the study above, would that invalidate the theory of global warming?

      Of course not, and I'm sure you must know that. If the predictions made in this study fail, then that would invalidate this study. If every bad prediction invalidated an entire field of research, we wouldn't have any science at all.

      As far as this study goes, you have to make ceteris paribus assumptions. A series of volcanic eruptions, for example, would delay warming without invalidating the role of CO2 in present warming.

    41. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Great! So what's the Null Hypothesis?

    42. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Funny how a temperature increase of max .5 degrees has such a profound effect on you. From having evil winters with months of snow to wearing shorts at Christmas in just a decade, right?

      Actually, I just looked up the temperature history for Houston and according to that the worst winters of the last 100 years were during the 1980s and 1990s. There were periods of extremely high temps during the 20s and 30s of last century. So temperature has not changed in any profound way. It seems you are exaggerating in order to push your world view.

    43. Re:Testable predictions by Cassini2 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      5) It turns out there's a bad assumption shared by all the models, and if you correct it the extreme warming goes away.

      Climate scientists assume that people will listen, and attempt to avert disaster. Unfortunately, if you look at the data, CO2 production keeps going up. As a result, the "assume humanity will take action" models consistently underestimate global warming.

      It makes me begin to understand how civilizations collapse.

    44. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm actually surprised by this. They used to make testable predictions, but that mostly stopped after the "sea levels will rise by n feet by 2010" (I don't remember the specific value of n). Though we did get one local prediction some 5-ish years ago that we wouldn't get any more snow ever, of course followed by two winters where we ran out of salt, so we had to bring back snow ploughs.

    45. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hurricane models are like trying to predict how Apple stock will be doing tomorrow.

      Climate models are like trying to predict how Apple stock will be doing two hundred years from now.

    46. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I am glad we can acknowledge it for what it is, a theory. Once we can see it for what it is, we can take matters in going on about our lives realizing a lot of investment and planning (some of it not so consumer friendly), is based on a theory. One theory that quite remarkably violates the Laws of Thermodynamics.

    47. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Rats off to ya for "off the coast of British".

    48. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      None of those a predictions by the theory, they are statistical predictions.

      The predictions made by the theory of evolution happen all the time.

      Where as the only predictions we get from the global warming camp are either so far in the future that they won't be testable until those who made and funded the predictions are all dead, OR they turn out to be completely off.

    49. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Please provide a link to the source code for those models and the raw original unaltered data sets for those models so that they can be evaluated by the community at large to ensure there is no bias built into the code or data. And don't give me the crap that only certain people are knowledgeable enough to understand it, that's the same argument we hear from security software providers and yet it is the quite often the non-security professional developer that finds the errors.

      So I dispute every single data source and model until they have undergone a rigorous crowd-sourced review and debate outside the CCC - Church of the Climate Change.

      Edit: how appropriate, my captcha on this post is 'validate',

    50. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      To debunk global warming in general would require not only a stop to the warming, but also a sustained period of cooling, which we haven't seen that since accurate record keeping began in the 1850s.

      So, to disprove human-caused global warming, not only does it need to be shown to not happen, but the natural warming previously known as "we are not in an ice age anymore" needs to stop also, returning us to the ice age.

      I'm not sure what you were trying to achieve, but I know what you will achieve: Convincing more people that global warming proponents are full of shit.

    51. Re:Testable predictions by riverat1 · · Score: 4, Informative

      No, several feet of sea level rise was not predicted by 2010. The IPCC Second Archive report in 1995 projected a rise of around 5 cm (2 inches) by 2010 (just from eyeballing the graphs). Subsequent IPCC reports have raised that a bit but none of them predicted even a half foot of SLR by 2010.

      IPCC Second Archive Report - Working Group 1 (It's a big PDF (51 MB) but the chapter on sea level starts on page 359.)

    52. Re:Testable predictions by cascadingstylesheet · · Score: 1

      The so-called "weather" "men" are just making up fake temperatures to try to make hard working Republicans look like the bad guys when we deliver value to our shareholders by lobbying against the EPA. So sad.

      Is "the man" "keepin' you down" and preventing you from from screwing over every living soul you know and selling every scrap of resource you can to the highest bidder so you can be king of the trash pit.

      Er, you do realize that was a troll, right? Not an actual Republican?

    53. Re:Testable predictions by riverat1 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Not even close. Climate models are based on actual physics. The temperature rise we've seen is still within the 95% uncertainty boundaries of the models projected temperature rise.

    54. Re: Testable predictions by riverat1 · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I wish "you guys" would stop presenting data from known corrupt orgs as real.

      Also, I note you completely ignored my comment about data manipulation.

      Hide the decline!

      If you go get the raw data and plot it out you will still get something pretty close what the "manipulated data" shows. In fact since about 1940 it's difficult to tell the difference between the two.

      How data adjustments affect global temperature records

    55. Re:Testable predictions by Baron_Yam · · Score: 3, Interesting

      >Seriously, arguing against global warning or trying to debunk it really is in the same league as flat earth theory or the idea that the earth is at the center of the solar system.

      Some of the deniers have evolved their position to specifically deny anthropogenic climate change, asserting that it's solar cycles or some other periodic effect.

      At it's heart, it is an argument against responsibility and action, not the fact of climate change itself.

      They haven't quite caught on to the idea yet that even if we're not changing the climate, we might want to fight any natural long term change that will harm us. It'll be interesting to see the next evolution of the denier camp's position.

    56. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Your comparing a single weather event to the climate? I bet you think the fact it snows means there is no climate change.

    57. Re:Testable predictions by dunkelfalke · · Score: 2

      You do understand that since we are still coming out of the last ice age that was 11700 years ago, the temperatures would rise not nearly as fast as they do.

      --
      "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
    58. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This tends to be the number one way that they're "never wrong". A lot of revisionism. When articles are pulled up, they're claimed to be fringe and "nobody really supported that". That front page of the Times probably being the most notable one of these ever. Granted "An Inconvenient Truth" is now giving the Times one from the 60s a run for it's money now. It's easy to never be wrong when you refuse to acknowledge you made your previous predictions that were later shown to be wrong.

      And as an FYI, this is why those of us who don't have piss poor memories kind of get angry at people like you. What you're doing in the world of psychology is called "gaslighting" and it's considered one of the most horrific forms of psychological abuse one can do. The nice thing we've got going for us is the internet that has archives of you types saying these things, even if you do later try to deny it.

    59. Re: Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You assume too much about these "orgs". Really? Corrupt? What news agency has EVER used or reported any bad or inaccurate information, especially to push some conspiracy, personal agenda, or personal gain?

      Everything on the internet is true. Including this...

    60. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The Mathematicians I know laugh at the climate change predictions. Normally with a comment about how a chaotic system can not be predicted.

    61. Re:Testable predictions by sn0wcrash · · Score: 1

      I live in Houston.

      Are you old enough to remember when Houston actually had a "winter"? Because I am.

      Well, you must a been around Houston for a hell of a time. In the 40 years I've been here winter has only ever been an occasional thing for at most a handful of weeks. Remembering a few freezes doesn't hardly count as remembering a winter.

    62. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Scientists have got too a very good model about this kind of self-destruction. Game theory scientists call this theory: the tragedy of the commons.

    63. Re:Testable predictions by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      You have to admit, they're really hard to tell apart.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    64. Re:Testable predictions by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      You know, a scientist fairy dies every time you mistake a hypothesis for a theory.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    65. Re: Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Source?

      You want that to be true, but its not.

    66. Re:Testable predictions by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      Remembering a few freezes doesn't hardly count as remembering a winter.

      Those few freezes have disappeared. That's my point.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    67. Re: Testable predictions by dunkelfalke · · Score: 1

      Use your bloody common sense. It took eleven thousand years to get the temperatures from freezingly cold winters to normal winters and then just fifty years to make the winter disappear completely. I surely don't want it to be true, I like backcountry skiing but Germany had no winter for years, just a prolongued autumn instead. Two years ago I've even seen thrushes breeding in December/January. The chicks died in February, of course, because they needed to be fed insects, not berries.

      --
      "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
    68. Re:Testable predictions by argStyopa · · Score: 1

      What all the rage-replies to your post fail to realize is that the globe could be warming.

      It could be warming SHARPLY.

      It could be warming so significantly it will cause devastation.

      Yet...the quasi-cult-religion of AGW is not by any means proved by such a thing.

      Because, you see, their assertion is that it's CAUSED by people. That's where their shit starts to fall apart, no matter how much righteous indignation is applied to spackle it in place.

      If you're taller than me, that's an observable, provable fact in the same sense that our planet seems to be generally warming. But to then perform the solipsistic fallacy that humans have been performing since before Aristotle that "well we're here, we MUST have done it"? That flies directly in the fact of non-disputed evidence.

      --
      -Styopa
    69. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      China makes BILLIONS from AGW ... because they chose to act on it as a market that has become available that nobody else is competing in on a large scale (Europe tries, but doesn't have the scale). The US just blows hot air at each other (or, these days, hot electrons via Twitter) and attempts to ignore it. Sorry, Nature has a way of dealing with idiots, and the voting majority of the US certainly qualifies.

      In Biblical terms, it's the fire THIS time. God's getting tired of this shit.

    70. Re:Testable predictions by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      If we do *not* get the results predicted by the study above, would that invalidate the theory of global warming?

      Nope, It would invalidate the one paper making the one prediction. AGW is an amalgamation of a wealth of scientific models and and studies that are trending in a similar direction.

      If not, what testable predictions does the global warming theory make, whose failure *would* invalidate the theory?

      If the long term averaged mean global temperature deviates from its correlation to atmospheric CO2 then you'll have invalidated one of the fundamental pillars around which much of AGW research is based.

      Good luck.

    71. Re:Testable predictions by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      Unfortunately, if you look at the data, CO2 production keeps going up.

      Nope. CO2 emissions keep going up. The past few years CO2 production has actually leveled off and in many countries started to decline as a result of civilisations taking action.

    72. Re:Testable predictions by houstonbofh · · Score: 1

      Remembering a few freezes doesn't hardly count as remembering a winter.

      Those few freezes have disappeared. That's my point.

      Since 2004 when Galveston got 4 inches of snow? Or last winter when half my neighborhood "lost water" then the pipe froze?

    73. Re:Testable predictions by houstonbofh · · Score: 1

      No, I am using an example of a time when many people were actively watching the weather models to illustrate how imprecise they are.

    74. Re:Testable predictions by houstonbofh · · Score: 1

      We can start back in the 50s and 60s when the big fear was global cooling. There were even project on the feasibility of launching large mirrors to the Lagrange points to collect more sunlight to send to the earth. Well, that changed...

      Then there is the multi foot sea level rise that started pushing in the 70s but really kicked off in the 80s. Also never happened.

      How about the "tipping points" we were supposed to hit in 1990, 1990, 2005, 2010, and 2015. We have another one in 2020 we will also not hit.

      Also, by about the same dates as the tipping points above, we were supposed to lose the polar ice cap. Also never happened.

      This is the problem with literate people over 40. We remember reading the stuff.

    75. Re:Testable predictions by MMC+Monster · · Score: 1

      You do realize that "science" isn't just one guy. It's a large number of research teams that come out with competing models. Just like there's a lot of medical research that we shouldn't follow until there's a consensus statement from a governing body (ie: American College of Cardiology).

      If you look at the IPCC (or other consensus groups) predictions, they conform fairly closely with reality.

      If you find one that doesn't, please provide a link.

      --
      Help! I'm a slashdot refugee.
    76. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think he simply assumes that all the trolls on climate change are republicans.

      Usually, a safe bet.

    77. Re:Testable predictions by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      Or last winter when half my neighborhood "lost water" then the pipe froze?

      I was living in Houston last winter. Your neighborhood's pipes did not freeze. Sorry, pal, but you're bullshitting. There was no 24-hour period in 2016 or 2017 that was below 32 degrees F. Even the coldest day of 2017, it got to 45 degrees during the day, and there were five days that same January that is was over 80 degrees F. January.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    78. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There once was a barrel of wort, and in this wort lived a happy colony of yeast. They were the happiest of yeast as there was so much goodness to eat in the wort. One day a yeast suggested that they needed to start taking action as the alcohol content of the wort was on the rise, but the other yeast said, "barrel-wide alcohol change is a hoax!"

      So the yeast continued on with their happy lives, ignoring the pleas of the "fermentatumists". Eventually, the alcohol concentration got so bad that all the yeast died. A few years later the barrel was opened and everyone agreed that the beer was good.

    79. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not a theory.

      It's a religion.

    80. Re:Testable predictions by tbannist · · Score: 1

      That's a lemming argument. "Most scientists agree on anthropogenic global warming, so it must be true."

      That's an illiterate argument. He said we don't throw away theories, we replace them with theories that do a better job of explaining the evidence. Then you have to play the role of moron and accuse him of bandwagoning for the crime of explaining how the real world works to you. Congratulations, you've embarrassed yourself and everyone who agrees with you.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    81. Re:Testable predictions by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Because the historically normal rate of warming we have been experiencing essentially took a 90 degree turn upwards on those graphs over a period of under 50 years.

      That's why I think it is unusual.

      Look, I'll be dead by the time this matters. But if you are under 30, you are in for hard times as the food raising areas migrate northwards into areas which are not fertile. It took 10,000 years for the current fertile areas to be converted by animals into fertile areas. Areas that were permafrost won't be viable to raise crops in for a very long time.

      When you add in the fact that Exxon researchers predicted this in 1978 and Exxon not only suppressed the information but then began spending money to create anti-warming propaganda, it's concerning.

      Personally? I think it's too late and you guys are screwed.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    82. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is funny, and I'm with you on the sarcasm,

      but ...

      There's this dynamic, where some mindset can happen, even though nobody planned it and nobody organized it. A bit like the point of Anonymous, before that NSA group took over and made it a group (with spokespeople, to put the cherry on top!), completely missing the point.

      This isn't the case for global warming.

      But it is the case for all those memes that we call "social conditioning". E.g. how nearly every American believes that money makes you attractive. When in reality, it only makes you confident, and that makes you attractive. Don't need the money to be confident. Plenty of other ways to achieve that.

    83. Re: Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually common sense would tell me that this makes sense. For the first part of the 11,000 years when the planet was mostly covered with white snow and ice, much more heat was reflected back into space and the oceans remained cold. As that ice receded and more dark colored lands and more open ocean was uncovered, then more heat started being retained. The more heat being retained the more ice melted, the more natural emissions from the now thawed earth, the more water vapor released into the atmosphere (water vapor is a strong so-called greenhouse gas) so the more heat being trapped.

      It has been shown that a volcanic eruption alone can pump more CO2 into the atmosphere in one event than humans have done since the industrial revolution, and there were some fairly massive volcanic eruptions in recorded times. If human produced CO2 is the reason for the speed up then why don't we see a similar speed up from those eruption events?

    84. Re:Testable predictions by tbannist · · Score: 1

      So, to disprove human-caused global warming, not only does it need to be shown to not happen, but the natural warming previously known as "we are not in an ice age anymore" needs to stop also, returning us to the ice age.

      Don't worry, the "natural warming" because "we are not in an ice age anymore" actually stopped thousands of years ago. The temperature has been on a long slow decline since then. If you removed the human influence from the global temperature it would start declining again.

      You don't have to take my word for it, but the Holocene optimum happened about 7,500 years ago.

      --
      Fanatically anti-fanatical
    85. Re:Testable predictions by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      "well we're here, we MUST have done it"? That flies directly in the fact of non-disputed evidence.
      So which evidence are you talking about?

      You have evidence that all human produced CO2 somehow disappeared? But: some unknown source of CO2 put more or less the same amount like he disappeared human production into the atmosphere?

      That sounds interesting ... so any hints for us, how the human made CO2 disappeared and where the replacement came from?

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    86. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Those are testable predictions.

      So is looking at the sun. During the last eclipse, did you look at it without special glasses? Did you stare at it without glasses during non-eclipse times, just to verify that those astronomers advising caution weren't pushing some librul agenda?

      Why would you when there are plenty of *documented* cases, not to mention tools other than your eyes that show the amount of energy is dangerous to your eyes.

      We don't have any of that with global warming. In fact the *documented* cases of warm and cool periods throughout our planet's history are ignored by global warming idiots because it doesn't fit their narrative.

    87. Re:Testable predictions by Dutchmaan · · Score: 1

      The ironic part is I didn't mention a thing about political parties in my post. It's almost sad that the description I posted is so fitting to conservatives that it's a safe assumption.

    88. Re:Testable predictions by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      This tends to be the number one way that they're "never wrong". A lot of revisionism. When articles are pulled up, they're claimed to be fringe and "nobody really supported that". That front page of the Times probably being the most notable one of these ever. Granted "An Inconvenient Truth" is now giving the Times one from the 60s a run for it's money now. It's easy to never be wrong when you refuse to acknowledge you made your previous predictions that were later shown to be wrong.

      And as an FYI, this is why those of us who don't have piss poor memories kind of get angry at people like you. What you're doing in the world of psychology is called "gaslighting" and it's considered one of the most horrific forms of psychological abuse one can do. The nice thing we've got going for us is the internet that has archives of you types saying these things, even if you do later try to deny it.

      The problem with guys like you is that you read some hyperbolic headline and believe it's true without ever going to check the actual scientific sources. You tend to ignore the timelines they put on the predictions and expect them all to happen in a decade or so. I'd be happy for you to point out something from the internet archives that you think said sea level would rise that fast. I'll bet I could easily disprove it.

      To be fair it has been speculated that there could be sea level rises on the order of a foot or more on decadal time scales if there is a catastrophic collapse of some of the glacial outlet glacier in Antarctica (like the Pine Island glacier). Rapid SLR like that has happened in the past but it's currently impossible to predict with any accuracy if and when that might happen.

    89. Re:Testable predictions by vux984 · · Score: 1

      "Where as the only predictions we get from the global warming camp are either so far in the future that they won't be testable until those who made and funded the predictions are all dead, OR they turn out to be completely off."

      They have reliably been predicting temperature increases since the 70s and 80s and lots of those predictions are pretty close.

      The effect of those predictions on things like the antartic ice sheet, glaciers, the north west passage etc has also all been borne out.

      Climate and weather are pretty chaotic systems, and respond to unpredictable events (solar activity, volcanic activity, massive forest fires, etc) and assumptions about human activities like the rate of deforestation or industrialization of developing countries that you just can't know decades in advance even if your model is perfect.

      the broad strokes stuff has been correct.
      the temperature is rising.
      carbon levels are rising.
      ice is melting.
      ocean levels are rising.

      the fact that a climate prediction made in 1980 is off because their estimates of volcanic activity, the rate of industrialization (in China and India were off) resulting in underestimating the manmade aerosol emissions etc etc... hardly refutes the theory itself.

    90. Re: Testable predictions by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      You're free to go get the raw temperature data and compare it to the "manipulated data" on your own (although I'd be surprised if you had the statistical chops to be able to do that on your own). You appear to believe it's all a giant conspiracy but if it was it would be the biggest in world history involving tens of thousands of climate researchers around the world. It's an untenable conspiracy theory. Scientists generally are smart enough to know that if they are wrong the physical reality will catch up to them sooner or later and show them to be wrong. Any scientist would make his/her name by breaking away from such a conspiracy and pointing out the errors.

    91. Re: Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ooh... I got it, I got it!

    92. Re: Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wait, when was there a theory of global cooling? I thought that was in the 70s not the 50s or 60s. Do you have a link?

      Which scientific journals published those papers? Are they trustworthy sources?

      Links please.

    93. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Does it bother you at all that virtually all of the scientific census global warming predictions have been wrong in just one direction? A reasonable individual would expect that there would be error bars around these projections, some predictions should come in high and an equal number should come in low, that is not at all how things have worked out in the real world however. As a result, the "science" loses credibility.

      prsdntl

    94. Re: Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And here for your entertainment is the continual confusion between weather and climate. You actually have models for both in your head right now. The question is the timeframe that those models will give valid predictions between measurements of the actual environment.

      For example for weather you may measure the environment by looking for clouds to decide if you should bring an umbrella.

      For climat you may check the calendar and see that itâ(TM)s winter when deciding if a road trip to North Dakota In an old car is safe. We all make accurate predictions of climate all of the time.

      Interestingly with weather, the predictions become useless after just hours or days but with climate, they are useful for a longer time. I would rather risk leaving the umbrella at home just one day after checking the clouds but would wait months to drive to ND in that old car. Climate is MUCH easier to predict than weather.

    95. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If the community isn't smart enough to understand how to NOT elect Trump how in the hell do you think they'll have anywhere close to the level of intelligence required for proper climate research? They DON'T

      Most of these retards can't tie their own damn shoes.

    96. Re:Testable predictions by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      I'd have modded it +1, Funny if I had mod points at the moment. It was a very good parody of some rhetoric I've seen.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    97. Re:Testable predictions by david_thornley · · Score: 1

      Get new mathematician friends who have a clue about statistics. Weather is chaotic. Climate is the sum of lots of weather, and benefits from the Law of Large Numbers.. Climate says that the 2010s have been extremely hot compared to earlier years. Weather says it was unpleasantly cool and wet where I live.

      Or, to put this another way, try to predict rolls of a single die. Now, try to predict the sum of rolls of ten thousand dice. One of them will stick to predictions much better than the other.

      --
      "When you have eliminated the unacceptable, whatever is left, however improbable, must be the truthiness" - Holmes
    98. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      We are not "coming out of the last ice age". If the ice age cycle were to continue as normal, we would have just passed the peak interglacial about a thousand years ago and would currently be in a slow cooling trend.

    99. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's easy. Take a climate change model and run using a historical date like 1998 and then progress it forward, without using later tweaks to make it match later historical climate data. If your model matches that later period without tweaks, then it is a potentially valid model and people might believe your predictions.
      Since this has not been done yet I'll wait until someone actually creates a model that accurately predicts future climate trends.

    100. Re:Testable predictions by jemmyw · · Score: 1

      I think the responses you got immediately kind of go some way to your crazy pill point.

      What gets me is that most denialists don't really have anything to gain by their position. If climate change is wrong and we switch to renewables then our imaginary economic system might take a few percentage point hit. If its right then we're buggered. The people who lose out if we cut back on our overconsumption and pollution are a small minority with a lot of money and power.

      What seems to drive it is the idea of being told what to do. But this is a trick from above, because you don't get to do what you want to do anyway. I don't use the electricity I want, I use the amount that makes sense economically, given the supply, the items I use, and the type of electricity that comes to my home. I don't choose to buy an ICE car, that is what is available. If we had had electric cars only ever, or governments had banned the use of private vehicles before they became ubiquitous, then these conversations would never take place. We'd probably have these same denialists hopping up and down shouting "You cant' let people drive around in tons of metal all over the place, it'd be murderous" (and they'd be correct for once).

    101. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Most Christian religious scholars claim God exists, Jesus is his son, and the only path to heaven is through Christianity. ... Most Islamic religious scholars claim God exists, Jesus is not his son, and the only path to heaven is through Islam.

      In other words: there exists no general agreement among religious scholars as to a) whether Jesus is the son of God or b) the path to heaven. That is if course to be contrasted with the overwhelming agreement among expert scientists as the the explanation for global warming.

      But I think you do make a good point, one cannot simply agree with experts of any species. It would be better if we dismiss religious experts and put our faith instead in the work of scientists.

    102. Re:Testable predictions by riverat1 · · Score: 1

      We can start back in the 50s and 60s when the big fear was global cooling. There were even project on the feasibility of launching large mirrors to the Lagrange points to collect more sunlight to send to the earth. Well, that changed...

      No, there was never any big fear about global cooling in scientific circles. Svante Arrhenius predicted in the 1890s that increasing CO2 in the atmosphere would lead to increasing temperatures. In the 1930s Guy Callendar expanded on Arrhenius. In the 1950s Gilbert Plass published several papers on CO2s effect on climate including "The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climate Change". In the 1960s scientists brought the global warming effects of CO2 to the attention of President Lyndon Johnson who spoke about it to Congress. In 1967 Manabe and Wetherald developed the first primitive computer climate model whose predictions have turned out to be remarkably accurate 50 years later. In the 1970s there were a couple of articles in Time and Newsweek about potential cooling but a survey of the scientific literature from 1965 to 1979 found 7 times as many papers on global warming as they did on global cooling.

      Then there is the multi foot sea level rise that started pushing in the 70s but really kicked off in the 80s. Also never happened.

      Again no scientist predicted that kind of SLR that fast. Sea level has risen about 9 inches since 1900. We could well get to multi-foot sea level rises by the middle to late 2000s. That's what scientists have predicted.

      How about the "tipping points" we were supposed to hit in 1990, 1990, 2005, 2010, and 2015. We have another one in 2020 we will also not hit. Also, by about the same dates as the tipping points above, we were supposed to lose the polar ice cap. Also never happened.

      Again, again the scientific predictions about losing the Arctic sea ice point to somewhere in the 2040s or 2050s. And that means the sea ice will melt out every summer but it will still ice up in the winter for a long time to come. Also the big ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica will take thousands of years to melt regardless of how hot it gets.

      This is the problem with literate people over 40. We remember reading the stuff.

      The problem with you is that you read that stuff but you never bother to check it for accuracy. You never bother to understand the time frame for those predictions. You just accept that they must be true and will happen in a decade or less without skepticism.

      I was born in 1952 and I don't remember reading any of that stuff except the Time and Newsweek articles. At the time I thought it might mean something but as I continued to educate myself I learned better.

    103. Re:Testable predictions by slashrio · · Score: 1

      Yes you are right, I made a wrong comment to the wrong comment. Sorry for that. Won't say won't happen again though. :)

      --
      "Trump!!", the new Godwin.
    104. Re:Testable predictions by slashrio · · Score: 1

      Yes, it was a wrong reply to a wrong comment.
      But don't worry, nothing illiterate or embarrassing about it.
      No harm done, except maybe to my karma. :)

      --
      "Trump!!", the new Godwin.
    105. Re:Testable predictions by slashrio · · Score: 1

      True :)

      --
      "Trump!!", the new Godwin.
    106. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If global ocean temp went down a bit, the theory would be in trouble. Thank goodness that hasn't been happening! Oh, wait...

    107. Re:Testable predictions by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes. I used to stare at the sun as a child. During the eclipse I stared until it wasn't painful any more, which doesn't take long. Do you think we'd evolve so that looking at the brightest thing in the sky would blind us? Have you ever met anyone who was blinded by looking at the sun? If you wouldn't even do a simple experiment like that - a repeat of one everyone did as a child - don't imply that you know anything about science. You're just a science fanboy.

    108. Re:Testable predictions by AutodidactLabrat · · Score: 1

      You forgot to set the Sarcasm Flag.
      Faux viewers can't tell

    109. Re:Testable predictions by argStyopa · · Score: 1

      No, but the provable fact is that about every 100-120k years CO2 and temperature spike radically and then drop back down.

      The last one was...about 120k years ago. So we are right on schedule for a spike.

      Yet, when we see temperature spiking and CO2 spiking pretty much the way it's historically done, on approximately an historical timeline, we assert that THIS TIME it's SUVs and Republicans causing it. To do so postulates both that a) whatever regular, cyclical mechanism was in place has STOPPED, and b) that it's been entirely replaced with a seemingly-identical mechanism made largely by humans.
      That's just ludicrous.

      I *believe* human activity is likely making the spike worse, sure.
      But *primarily* caused by humans? Nonsense.

      Look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
      It's been happening literally for the last 2-3 MILLION years.

      --
      -Styopa
    110. Re:Testable predictions by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Oki, I wait for your Nobel price then.

      CO2 levels before/during/after 'ice ages' trail the forming and melting of the glaciers. Actually a no brainer ...

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    111. Re:Testable predictions by argStyopa · · Score: 1

      I didn't assert causation at all. Just observation: regular spikes of warming+CO2.

      This one is happening pretty much exactly on schedule.

      How is this intrinsically different than the last 20 times it happened?

      --
      -Styopa
    112. Re:Testable predictions by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      And what has that to do with CO2 produced by mankind?

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  4. Have we heard this before? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm having a hard time getting exited given the number of predictions that have not proven accurate.

    1. Re:Have we heard this before? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      You are not required to become excited at every piece of news. Enjoy your relaxation. While you're relaxing, you should focus on the predictions that have been accurate. I can make up 2000 predictions in the next 20 minutes which won't be accurate and they in no way invalidate the ones which were accurate.

  5. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    To be fair, just because they were wrong before doesn't mean they're wrong again.

  6. Good idea to burn it? by manu0601 · · Score: 2

    Methane has a grater impact on greenhouse effect than CO2, and ice-trapped methane will be released because of ocean warming, thus increasing greenhouse effect and climate warming again.

    The best scenario would be to avoid ocean warming so that methane stays trapped, but if it is to be released, perhaps it is better to burn it.

    1. Re:Good idea to burn it? by kiviQr · · Score: 1

      not sure if you grasped the concept of burning;) it releases heat and CO2.

    2. Re:Good idea to burn it? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You were off by one story...

    3. Re:Good idea to burn it? by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 5, Informative

      not sure if you grasped the concept of burning;) it releases heat and CO2.

      but since methane has over 20 times the greenhouse effect of CO2, we would be better off than if the methane were released unburned - though not better off than if the methane were not released in the first place.

    4. Re:Good idea to burn it? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Methane has a grater impact on greenhouse effect than CO2

      You're confusing global warming with cutting the cheese.

    5. Re:Good idea to burn it? by whoever57 · · Score: 1

      Methane has a grater impact on greenhouse effect than CO2,

      Yes, but methane, unlike CO2, doesn't stay in the atmosphere forever.

      --
      The real "Libtards" are the Libertarians!
    6. Re:Good idea to burn it? by whoever57 · · Score: 0, Troll

      Not really. Natural processes remove methane from the atmosphere over time, while the same is not true for CO2.

      --
      The real "Libtards" are the Libertarians!
    7. Re: Good idea to burn it? by Bartles · · Score: 1

      Umm...I hate to break it to you, but how exactly do you think all that carbon got back n the ground in the first place?

    8. Re: Good idea to burn it? by Bartles · · Score: 0

      Where do you think that methane came from?

    9. Re:Good idea to burn it? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, but methane, unlike CO2, doesn't stay in the atmosphere forever.

      There's this little thing, you might have heard of it, it's called:

      PHOTOSYNTHESIS

    10. Re: Good idea to burn it? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It never gets back into the ground. It escapes into space. That's why space is black, all those carbon particles floating around.

    11. Re:Good idea to burn it? by dunkelfalke · · Score: 1

      Yes really. Natural processes don't remove methane, it just degrades with time. The end of that degradation chain is again CO2 and water vapour.

      --
      "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
    12. Re:Good idea to burn it? by Xyrus · · Score: 1

      The atmospheric lifetime for methane is about 12 years. Methane breaks down into CO2 and water vapor. So while it has a stronger greenhouse effect, it's short lifetime makes methane itself not really contribute much to the overall effect if it's just a spike. If there is a long continuous increase in methane production then that has a larger impact, but for an event like a "clathrate gun" temperatures would have a temporary surge then cool back down a bit.

      The resulting bump in CO2 however would have a longer term effect. The atmospheric lifetime of CO2 is around 150+ years. So after the stronger effect of methane goes away, your left with a smaller but longer lasting effect from the CO2.

      --
      ~X~
    13. Re:Good idea to burn it? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As far as I know, the usual GHG effect of 20 compare to CO2 already integrate the degradation effect over a 100 years period. If you compare to 10 years period, you will have an effect above 70.

    14. Re:Good idea to burn it? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > Not really. Natural processes remove methane from the atmosphere over time, while the same is not true for CO2.

      What world do you live on? On this one photosynthesis breaks down the CO2 converting it to C6H12O6. The plant will use the C6H12O6 to produce things like C6H10O5 and C12H22O11. Even when burned it converts some of it to CaCO3 which binds a carbon atom up in calcium carbonate. That's a carbon atom that came from CO2. Hell when a plant decays it tends to be consumed by fungus and bacteria that breakdown the C6H12O6 for use in their life processes. Even Fungus uses the carbon bound in plant material to produce C8H13O5N which is what mycelia nets and Mushrooms are made from.

      Only a fraction of the carbon that plants remove CO2 is returned to the air as CO2.

    15. Re:Good idea to burn it? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Methane becomes CO2 and then proceeds to stay in the atmosphere forever.

      CO2 is the main long-term driver of global warming, but methane is a source of CO2. Also, a surge in CH4 drives a short-term surge in temperature, which melts more ice, thus releasing more CH4. Fortunately, there is a limit to the amount of methane trapped in ice near the surface, so the feedback loop stops at some point.

      So basically, if methane is going to be released into the atmosphere anyway then you're better off burning it right away. Just setting it alight is an improvement over letting it escape. However, using it as a substitute for fossil fuels actually means less CO2 ends up in the air.

  7. George Soros ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2

    George Soros funded and covered by VICE ? BLAHAHAHAHAHAH

    1. Re:George Soros ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      When murdering a Republican, use facts. They hate that.

    2. Re:George Soros ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Of course someone from the side that confuses human biology, with a Baskin Robbins menu, would make an asinine comment like that.

  8. Warmer Summers? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Gotta love it! Warmer winters? Gotta love it!

    Love me some warm weather. Cold sucks!

    1. Re:Warmer Summers? by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1

      Heating is much more energy intensive than cooling

    2. Re: Warmer Summers? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A whole mess of the world lives in areas where cooling just involves opening a window.

  9. OK, they have made a prediction by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Let's see how long before they have to "adjust" it.

    1. Re:OK, they have made a prediction by kenwd0elq · · Score: 0

      Next year. Last year was an El Nino year; this is a La Nina year. And the solar cycle is becoming longer and flatter than any time in the past century, so I'm expecting COOLING trends for the next 30 years or so.

    2. Re:OK, they have made a prediction by serviscope_minor · · Score: 1

      Next year. Last year was an El Nino year; this is a La Nina year. And the solar cycle is becoming longer and flatter than any time in the past century, so I'm expecting COOLING trends for the next 30 years or so.

      I love the idea put forth by people on the internet that some shit they read on some random blog is THE TRUTH and those stupid silly scientists haven't realised things like, oh, the sun existing or some shit.

      Yeah, climate scientists know about El Nino and La Nina and oddly enough they know about the sun and solar cycles too. You do not have access to magical facts that scientists don't know that will somehow make you correct. And when your predicted falling trend fails to materialise, you will find another way to rationalise away global warming.

      --
      SJW n. One who posts facts.
    3. Re:OK, they have made a prediction by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      First of all: this year and probably next year is a "normal year". Neither El Nino, nor La Nina.
      Secondly: all three phases, La Nina, "inbetween" and El Nino last several years. Not a single year.
      Thirdly: after an "inbetween" Phase it is completely open if the next phase is an El Nino or an La Nina ... they are not really alternating.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    4. Re:OK, they have made a prediction by Reziac · · Score: 1

      Yep, when I look at the solar data, that's what I see too. Another Little Ice Age, probably within our lifetimes.

      Not too concerned about futures predicted by models that can't even accurately predict the past, or cries of "record heat" that conveniently omit the 1930s, tho the day will come when a little more warming woulda been nice. I remember the bad winters of the 1960s.

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
  10. Re: Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    It is happening. Last 3 summers have been the hottest on record: https://phys.org/news/2017-09-earth-sweltered-3rd-hottest-august.html

  11. What does this mean really? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Recording increasing temperatures in heat islands is nothing new. What about average temperatures?

  12. Re: Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Of course it's wrong, just another attack on fossil fuels and hard working Americans(tm)!

    Please excuse me while I increase my investments in renewable energy (esp. solar). I'm just hedging my bets, ya know.

  13. let it snow CAPTCHA: graver by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Actually the melting icecap is soaking up the heat and cool breezes are meandering south, keeping us cool. Once the icecaps are gone, the conditions for the next ice age will be ideal, with all that fresh source of precipitation, so, lots of snow in the summer.

  14. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    Heard this twenty years ago...

    No you didn't, at least not from any reputable source. What you heard from those was the global temperatures would continue to rise. This is a novel claim, namely that increases will be felt from year to year over "most of the U.S. and Canada, the Mediterranean, and much of Asia."

    ...and it didn't happen.

    What was predicted 20 years ago?! Really?

    Hottest year on record: 2016; 2nd hottest year on record: 2015; 3rd hottest year on record: 2014; 4th hottest year on record: 2010; 5th hottest year on record: 2013; 6th hottest year on record: 2005; 7th hottest year on record: 2009; 8th hottest year on record: 1998; 9th hottest year on record: 2012; and for the 10th we have a draw between, 2003, 2006 & 2007.

  15. Inb4 endless GOP attempts at denial by UpnAtom · · Score: 1

    But I think they're going to struggle with this one.

    1. Re:Inb4 endless GOP attempts at denial by hyades1 · · Score: 1

      Their base won't believe in Global Warming even as their noses are rubbed in it. They'll just blame liberals and yap about how badly they're being treated.

      --
      I've calculated my velocity with such exquisite precision that I have no idea where I am.
  16. Trend of monthly averages in a pic by doug141 · · Score: 4, Informative
    1. Re: Trend of monthly averages in a pic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Seriously? Did you even look at your graph? How exactly was the global average temperature measured in 1850 at all much less to that degree of precision?

      Pictures don't tell a thousand words if they're based on fabricated data.

    2. Re: Trend of monthly averages in a pic by The+Cynical+Critic · · Score: 2

      Seeing how this is news to you, mercury thermometers became very accurate in the first half of the 1800s. When properly calibrated, which the ones used for measuring weather data were, they were accurate to a single 10th of a degree F and that's about the same as the digital ones used today.

      Oh and before you ask, we use digital ones today because you had to go and read the mercury ones in-person while digital ones can be read remotely and you can automate taking readings.

      --
      "Why should I want to make anything up? Life's bad enough as it is without wanting to invent any more of it."
    3. Re: Trend of monthly averages in a pic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Still need to correct for heat islands effects. You can't just step outside your door and take a valid reading.

    4. Re: Trend of monthly averages in a pic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The problem here is not that thermometers were not accurate enough, the problem is that the measurement is supposed to be global average. If the measurement was about say average temperature in Paris, there would be no question really, but the ability in 1850-s to gather any data globally was just very very limited, especially in polar regions where warming effects are most significant. It's not entirely impossible that the trend in these specific measurements suffer significant localization bias. But there are other indirect measurements that agree pretty much perfectly with these direct measurements so fact of warming remains.

  17. So.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The pool ~will~ be worth it after all. Good to know.

  18. Good news for British Columbia by boudie2 · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Bigger Buds! There's really just as much positive as negative to global warming. Some people say the glass is half empty and some say it's half full. Some people just like to complain.

    1. Re:Good news for British Columbia by dristoph · · Score: 1

      It's easy to say that if you happen to live in an area that will see benefits. As with all natural disasters and externalities of industry, the poor will take the brunt of the suffering, both for geographical reasons and for the fact that the poor have less access to physical mobility.

    2. Re:Good news for British Columbia by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The northern regions may get warmer, but not more sunlight, which plants require. So, no, the news is not rosy all around.

    3. Re:Good news for British Columbia by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's easy to say that if you happen to live in an area that will see benefits. As with all natural disasters and externalities of industry, the poor will take the brunt of the suffering, both for geographical reasons and for the fact that the poor have less access to physical mobility.

      But burning Hydrocarbons has given the poor MORE access to physical mobility than any other time in history.

    4. Re:Good news for British Columbia by boudie2 · · Score: 1

      So you've developed empathy for the poor from reading a book. How quaint.

    5. Re:Good news for British Columbia by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If someone reads a book which makes them a better person, you have a problem with that???

    6. Re:Good news for British Columbia by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm in engineering. The glass is too big.

    7. Re:Good news for British Columbia by dristoph · · Score: 1

      I grew up in a trailer park with a single mom who worked as many overtime hours as she could to make ends meet. But nice try. And regardless of how one develops empathy for the poor, your reaction is to question the source of said empathy? As though that has shit to do with anything. Are you high?

    8. Re:Good news for British Columbia by boudie2 · · Score: 1

      I happen to be poor right now. You questioned my empathy. Turnabout is fair play. Overreacting isn't going to help.

    9. Re:Good news for British Columbia by citylivin · · Score: 1

      Perhaps you missed the summer of fire we just had? where smoke blanketed the province for the whole summer, and it didnt rain for 3 months. That's what climate change does to this province. Everything is out of wack. Hot dry summers, super cold wet winters. Worst of both worlds. And if you are paying attention to the ocean, many species such as sea stars are dying off at unprecedented levels.

      I cant figure out if you are making a joke or just ignorant... Good weed isnt grown outdoor anyway. Hot summers just mean more cooling is needed thus exacerbating the problem.

      --
      As a potential lottery winner, I totally support tax cuts for the wealthy
    10. Re:Good news for British Columbia by boudie2 · · Score: 1

      Lived in Vancouver 20+ years ago. The weather has always been whacky there. And you'd be surprised how much of your good weed is grown outdoors in dirt and under the sun. What's next, is global warming to blame for all the junkies out there too?

  19. Tongue tied title by mike2006 · · Score: 1

    At first glance I thought it was something about Will Shatner.

  20. Time to move north .... by dasgoober · · Score: 1

    But I'm not gonna become a canadian, dammit!!!!

    1. Re:Time to move north .... by DontBeAMoran · · Score: 1

      Change your attitude to a positive one, replace anger with passive-agressive sarcasm, replace "dammit" with "eh?" and you're nearly there.

      --
      #DeleteFacebook
  21. WeatherWar101 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Go to YouTube and watch the WeatherWar101 channel. All of the weather is engineered. Any weather problems are engineered. Learn how wicked and evil your government really is.

  22. What's your experience? by myid · · Score: 1

    Instead of "I believe this person or set of data", what is your experience?

    I live in the southeast part of the San Francisco Bay area. Last summer (a few months ago), it got up to 108 degrees one day. It's never been that hot since I moved here in 1989. Also last summer we had more hot days that usual.

    I don't know if the temperatures have been gradually increasing here, but last summer was a record breaker for me.

    What's everyone else's experience?

    1. Re:What's your experience? by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      Weather-related anecdotes do not say anything about Climate Change, and I say this as part of the majority of the planet (outside the US) who acknowledge that Climate Change is real.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    2. Re:What's your experience? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, that backfired, didn't it. Maybe you should have waited until someone modded it up. Fucking idiot.

    3. Re:What's your experience? by Baron_Yam · · Score: 2

      My experience over the last 40 years would seem to support a warming trend - but that doesn't matter as there could be a perfectly logical explanation for a local trend that has nothing to do with global climate change. Or my recollection could be faulty for a variety of reasons.

      Give me a generally accepted climate model interpreted by an expert and confirmed against known records, with a reasonable explanation of where the model is weak and its anticipated predictive accuracy... that's worth far more in planning for the future than my memories of weather past.

    4. Re:What's your experience? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My experience has always been that Summer is hot and humid, Winter is cold and dry, and Spring and Fall are pretty nice.

    5. Re:What's your experience? by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      The current climate models are all on wikipedia ... you simply would find them with google.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    6. Re:What's your experience? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My experience is that weather != climate, but that's still fscking hot.

  23. DE HID Bulbs and LED by future+assassin · · Score: 1

    with the new DE Gavita or Agrolux systems or FLuence/BC Blondes LED you don't need sunlight to get crazy looking caked weed.

    --
    by TheSpoom (715771) Uncaring Linux user here. I have nothing to add to this but please continue. *munches popcorn*
  24. Yes Please! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The MidAtlantic of USA has had colder and wetter summers for the last decade compared to the 1990s. The week I graduated high school in 1994 in south east PA, we hit a heat wave of 5 days of 99F, and haven't hit it in 3 decades. We had maybe 3 days total above 88F this summer, kind of made me regret getting a house with an in ground pool we don't use.

    The problem with "averages" is that it statistically hides facts. Who cares that the deserts are getting hotter when the highest populated corridor in the USA (Washington DC to Philadelphia to New York) is getting colder summers and even colder winters?

    1. Re: Yes Please! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Does that mean DC will be buried under ice for the next ten thousand years? Because that sounds like a fantastic trade-off. Though when a long future generation thaws DC out and talks to Nancy Pelosi, theyâ(TM)ll say, âoeBring more ice!â

    2. Re: Yes Please! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are a lying sack of shit. I am from the same region as you and even graduated the same year as you, and summers have been consistently hotter on average and with warm weather lasting further into the autumn and milder winters than at any time in the 90s.

      Also, in my hometown of Lancaster PA, 42 days just this July and August were 88 or above, along with several more in late June and September. 3 days, my ass.

    3. Re:Yes Please! by mrbester · · Score: 1, Informative

      Interesting that they leave Northern Europe out of the list. The hottest summer on record in UK was in 1976, which is also conveniently outside the 40 year window _right now_, let alone in a decade's time. 1991 was a good hot summer but again that's outside when they will be doing their trend calculations. More recent summers haven't come close to 1976. Even last year's temperatures weren't as high and in no way did they last as long.

      If summers are getting consistently hotter, we would have hosepipe bans, but we haven't had one for over half a decade. The water companies are just as rubbish as they were back in the 2000s, so it isn't that somehow the water table is capable of maintaining its current level.

      So this is saying some regions will be hotter, so long as those regions are narrowly defined and the data range is restricted in order to prove the hypothesis.

      --
      "Wait. Something's happening. It's opening up! My God, it's full of apricots!"
    4. Re:Yes Please! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If summers are getting consistently hotter, we would have hosepipe bans

      Higher temperatures near an ocean leads to higher humidity, which leads to higher precipitation. So no, the UK being made up of islands in the North Atlantic, does not suffer hosepipe bans when the temperature goes up.

    5. Re:Yes Please! by mrbester · · Score: 1

      You'd be surprised. The record for shortest time from start of dry weather to a hosepipe ban being decreed by a water company in UK was _three days_. As I said, we haven't had one for years, mainly because the companies were taken to task after the the day debâcle,, rather than it being due to any increase in rainfall.

      The UK has a climate peculiar to it, so peculiar we don't consider we have one, just "weather".

      --
      "Wait. Something's happening. It's opening up! My God, it's full of apricots!"
  25. Re:I know JACK! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Jane, you ignorant slut!

    ACs are rated in BTU. The more BTU the more cooling. "...cool about 30-40" is meaningless. Just like the meat freezer in my garage stays 0 even if the garage is 100, the home too can be keep cooled easily BY NOT LETTING THE HEAT IN!

    No need for overly-large capacity systems when the envelope being conditioned is built properly, ducted prooperly, and the system sized properly. This is not rocket science. Ignorant sluts like you Jane are the problem.

  26. Nassim Taleb: destroyed of fake models by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Anyone who thinks a model or forecast is some kind of authority needs to study Nassim Taleb. Taleb has obliterated vast swaths of pseudo-academia and their consistently-flawed prediction models.

    1. Re:Nassim Taleb: destroyed of fake models by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Anyone who thinks a model or forecast is some kind of authority needs to study Nassim Taleb. Taleb has obliterated vast swaths of pseudo-academia and their consistently-flawed prediction models.

      Anyone who denies the impact of humans making mistakes needs to study human history. Irony has obliterated vast swaths of human lives, created by consistently-flawed assumption that some humans can never be wrong.

      In human history, the value of "I told you so" is short-lived when it's too fucking late.

  27. Re: This is just white people sad to loose their w by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Go to Hell, Ivan

  28. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by riverat1 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    And the current year, 2017 is set up to be the 2nd or 3rd hottest year on record despite no El Nino.

  29. I actually read the article by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    And this is wrong. The conclusion is that the CURRENT record summer will become the norm within 20 years. It does not mean that within 20 years, every other summer will become hotter than the last, but rather that there is 50% chance that temperatures will reach the current record of the last 40 years or so. The likelihood that every other summer would break records is obviously very low.

    1. Re:I actually read the article by Xyrus · · Score: 2

      Well, it's Slashdot. What did you expect from an article summary?

      --
      ~X~
    2. Re:I actually read the article by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, it's Slashdot. What did you expect from an article summary?

      Lies and quarter-truths that the indoctrinated trolls accept without question while they insult anyone who dares to provide contrary evidence or even logical questions of the assertion.

      *looks around*

      Oh, good, this is still Slashdot.

    3. Re:I actually read the article by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      The likelihood that every other summer would break records is obviously very low.

      That would be a logical conclusion if ever other summer recently hasn't done so or come close breaking those same records.

    4. Re:I actually read the article by Reziac · · Score: 1

      Also says nothing about the prolonged heat of the 1930s, which made today's "records" look downright chilly.

      --
      ~REZ~ #43301. Who'd fake being me anyway?
    5. Re:I actually read the article by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How dare you interject facts and reason into the discussion.

      We're talking about climate change, a topic that should only ever be debated using hyperbole, invective, and tribalism.

      #maga

  30. If they're wrong by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Then promise to shut the fuck up about climate change.

  31. AGW is a rotten theory by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    AGW assumes that Earth's climate is primarily feedback driven.

    The feedbacks make perfect sense. Higher temperature causes water to evaporate, that water vapor acts as a greenhouse gas. Ice melts, there is less albedo to reflect sunlight back into space...

    What doesn't make sense, and what has never made sense, is why Earth's climate didn't hit a "tipping point" at some point in the past, that sent the climate in one direction or the other, permanently.

    How would a massive impact from a space rock, or the collision/separation of the continents, or even a supervolcanic eruption not cause a "runaway" feedback effect?

    The only reasonable conclusion, so far as I can tell, is that Earth's climate is primarily homeostatic.

    1. Re:AGW is a rotten theory by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 1
      I think when they say tipping point, they mean bifurcation point which is just the transition from one limit cycle to another. But dumbed down so people can repeat it and sound like they know what they're talking about.

      Pretty pictures

  32. Re:I know JACK! by thinkwaitfast · · Score: 2
    A btu (british thermal unit) is the same as watt. Actually, it is the same as a joule, but more often people skip that part and instead mean btu/hr.

    1btu=1055J

    1btu(per hour)= 0.2931watts=1055J/3600sec

    I think Th on a home ac is around 350, and as long as it's cooler than that outside it will blow 285 inside. Efficiency goes down and more energy is required as Th->Tamb

  33. ..and if it doesn't? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Will any one of these people making crap predictions be held accountable for being the con artists they are?

  34. That's not what your mom said... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    She said it would be every night.

  35. Re:I know JACK! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That's like saying a meter is the same as an inch. They both measure the same thing, but they don't measure the same quantity of the same thing. there's 3.41BTU/hr to a watt.

  36. One is higher than the other by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    matths. LEARN IT.

  37. It will be interesting politically by Chrisq · · Score: 1

    I have seen predictions that in the second half of the century the grain belt will move from USA and Europe to Canada and Russia. That could make things very interesting as countries try to gain food security.

  38. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yeah, THIS time the guys predicting the end of the world will be right and we should give all our money to Al Gore and Co because they might be right next time.

  39. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yes, Hillary Clinton will win in a landslide.

  40. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I predict over 90% chance of victory.

  41. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Jesus, you weren't wrong. Troll?? Unbelievable. Just ridiculous.

  42. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Thanatiel · · Score: 2

    Where are my mod points when I need them ...

    I've heard about this a long time ago (feels more than 20 years) and the only thing that I could say against, is that the raise was slower than I expected (I think I was a kid at the time, and it was on the TV/FUD news machine, so there is that).

    --
    Irrelevant news and morons using moderation to mod down what they disagree on. 2018 resolution: so long.
  43. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Actually I don't see where they've ever been right.

    First in the 60's it was the hundreds of millions were going to die because the population of the planet had reached the max it could support food wise, and yet the population is double what it was back then. So much for Soylent green.

    Next in the 70's it was a coming ice age and that didn't happen. Glaciers continue to recede as they've been doing for about the last 12000 years.

    Ok so flip the thermometer the other way and start crying wolf about global warming and how now we'd have massive famines and flooded coastlines. Then suddenly there was a near complete stall in "temperature increase" and the ice sheets didn't melt, so they had to stop saying global warming and changed the fear mongering to climate change which they can now use to cover anything.

    So I'd have to say their track record of being wrong is a pretty good indicator of them being wrong in the future.

  44. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Well, that and 7 out of 8 calibration adjustments to data sets that conveniently reduced earlier temperatures and increased later temperatures, matching what was expected to happen and have happened.

    This is not science at all.

  45. I think we should take those 50% failed sensors... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Insightful

    Here let me finish this article for you:

    I think we should take those 50% failed sensors and just plug in data that supports our crazy theory of global warming. Then we can sell Carbon Credits through some crazy Bagman who gets trillions with a T and can demand you shut down your business so China which has 0 env protections get the jobs. Cause we love Communists that murdered 160+ Million people, they give us lots of babies now after we gave them autism with our vaccines.

  46. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Heard this twenty years ago and it didn't happen.

    So your theory is that once one warning is wrong, then all warnings can be simply ignored. The other day my smoke detector went off by mistake. Annoying, sure, but the upside is that now means my house will never burn down!

  47. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by NoSleepDemon · · Score: 1

    Not being an expert in this area I do find it puzzling. The Australian article was paywalled, but reading the other two did not set off any "troll" bells in my head. I don't know if they're completely *correct*, but they do seem like honest bits of research and at the very least, worthy of a rebuttal instead of a down vote. If I had mod points, I'd pop them back up. Alas I do not.

  48. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Dilbert comics talk about it back in 89-early 90's from memory so there is that.

  49. Re: Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Yeah .... record temperatures .... but only if you ignore the fact that they are not enven in the top 10 of the recorded history and not even in the top 50 of the geologically calculated temperatures.

    But hell. Why should I believed recorded fact against a political agenda?

  50. Bring it on... Canada could use it. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Bring it on. Canada had cold wet summers recently. Could use some more heat.

  51. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Heard this twenty years ago and it didn't happen.

    So your theory is that once one warning is wrong, then all warnings can be simply ignored. The other day my smoke detector went off by mistake. Annoying, sure, but the upside is that now means my house will never burn down!

    No. One wrong warning is cause to view the warning device with suspicion. Multiple wrong warnings is time to replace the warning device.

  52. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Hal_Porter · · Score: 1

    Careful! The HuffPo will denounce you as un unpatriotic heathen if you say that the chances are less than 98% because 'that's what the numbers say".

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com...

    During the 2012 election, Republicans who hated the daily onslaught of polling showing that Mitt Romney was headed toward a comfortable defeat turned to Dean Chambers, the man who launched the website Unskewed Polls. The poll numbers were wrong, he said, and by tweaking a few things, he could give a more accurate count. His final projection had Romney winning close to all 50 states.

    Chambers has wisely abandoned the field of election forecasting, and this year says he thinks the various models predicting a Hillary Clinton victory are probably accurate. The models themselves are pretty confident. HuffPost Pollster is giving Clinton a 98 percent chance of winning, and The New York Times' model at The Upshot puts her chances at 85 percent.

    There is one outlier, however, that is causing waves of panic among Democrats around the country, and injecting Trump backers with the hope that their guy might pull this thing off after all. Nate Silver's 538 model is giving Donald Trump a heart-stopping 35 percent chance of winning as of this weekend.

    He ratcheted the panic up to 11 on Friday with his latest forecast, tweeting out, "Trump is about 3 points behind Clinton â and 3-point polling errors happen pretty often."

    So who's right?

    The beauty here is that we won't have to wait long to find out. But let's lay out now why we think we're right and 538 is wrong. Or, at least, why they're doing it wrong.

    The short version is that Silver is changing the results of polls to fit where he thinks the polls truly are, rather than simply entering the poll numbers into his model and crunching them.

    Silver calls this unskewing a "trend line adjustment." He compares a poll to previous polls conducted by the same polling firm, makes a series of assumptions, runs a regression analysis, and gets a new poll number. That's the number he sticks in his model â not the original number.

    He may end up being right, but he's just guessing. A "trend line adjustment" is merely political punditry dressed up as sophisticated mathematical modeling.

    Guess who benefits from the unskewing?

    By the time he's done adjusting the "trend line," Clinton has lost 0.2 points and Trump has gained 1.7 points. An adjustment of below 2 points may not seem like much, but it's enough to throw off his entire forecast, taking a comfortable 4.6 point Clinton lead and making it look like a nail-biter.

    It's enough to close the gap between the two candidates to below 3 points, which allows Silver to say that it's now anybody's ballgame, because "3-point polling errors happen pretty often."

    That line in itself is disingenuous, though. For the polls to be wrong, there wouldn't need to be one single 3-point error. All of the polls â all of them, as Brianna Keilar would put it â would have to be off by 3 points in the same direction. That's happened before, but in 2012 the error favored President Barack Obama. In 2014, it favored Republicans. Errors are just as likely to favor Clinton as they are to favor Trump, and they would have to favor Trump. And we still haven't accounted for the unique fact that one campaign has a get-out-the-vote operation, while the other doesn't.

    By monkeying around with the numbers like this, Silver is making a mockery of the very forecasting industry that he popularized. "The idea that she's a prohibitive, 95 percent-plus favorite is hard to square with polling that has frequently shown 5- or 6-point swings within the span of a couple weeks, given that she only leads by 3 points or so now," he told Politico recently. "[E]verything depends on one's assumptions, but I think that our assumptions â a Clinton lead, sure, but high uncertainty

    --
    echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
  53. I'm retiring to Canada by kfh227 · · Score: 1

    That's it. my dream will be implemented!

  54. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Muros · · Score: 5, Informative

    No you didn't, at least not from any reputable source.

    Wrong: https://clintonwhitehouse3.arc...

    I was under the impression that it was traditional when providing a link to support a claim, that you choose one that actually supports your claim.

  55. Open Access = Political Propaganda by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Right in the shredder where it belongs..

  56. I could have thaken this seriusly by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Than i seen the link was to vice.com all credibility ruined.

  57. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    Of course he was modded troll, because he is lying. Yes, there is some data homogenization to account for differences in the accuracy of historical data. You can question that practice if you wish, but the un-homogenized data actually shows a larger warming trend. https://www.skepticalscience.c...

  58. Re:We've Heard It Before by serviscope_minor · · Score: 1

    Well hello Mr. Denialist!

    The predictions from the IPCC have basically come true. It's hypocritical to dismiss the field of climate change based on whacky popular press stuff and still actually be using a computer given the completely dumbass shit the popular press has said about computers over the years.

    --
    SJW n. One who posts facts.
  59. Millennials... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...they forgot about La Nina. We have only had record heat due to an extended El Nino, La Nina is coming and will create "record freezing" temperatures around the world, continuing the notion of global "warming" to be false. Until Florida is under water no one is going to believe anything "climatologists" have to say.

  60. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by TheCastro1689 · · Score: 1

    Isn't there a La Nina going on though?

  61. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Thanatiel · · Score: 1

    Sounds about right, I was around 15 at that time.

    --
    Irrelevant news and morons using moderation to mod down what they disagree on. 2018 resolution: so long.
  62. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    It goes back much further than that. You should look up the predictions from "The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894" Where they were predicting that by now we would be 10's of feet deep in horse manure.

  63. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by phlinn · · Score: 1

    The results on that page are strange to me, probably because it's only dealing with homogenization in particular rather than all adjustments, possibly because it's based on a newer version of the GHCN or includes sea measures.

    After the original flap about the Darwin station, in which RealClimate accused Watts of cherry picking, and responded by cherry picking themselves. That struck me as flawed, so I calculated the effects of all adjustments for every land station from GHCNv2 (current at the time). There was a nearly linear net warming trend (very small IIRC) in the adjustments starting around 1900, which means the raw data had a smaller warming trend. The

    --
    "Pulling together is the aim of despotism and tyranny! Free men pull in all sorts of directions" -- Havelock Vetinari
  64. Re: I know JACK! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Theres a single scaler conversion factor. It literally IS the same thing.

    Same as e=mc^2 proved light and mass ARE energy.

  65. Re:I know JACK! by Opportunist · · Score: 1

    Yes, and as long as you don't put bodies into the environment that generate heat (like, say, human bodies while alive), you can keep that room at that temperature provided insulation is perfect.

    Then again, IF insulation is perfect AND you put bodies producing heat into the environment... well, the second law of thermodynamics tells me that at some point the room will have approximately 37 degrees Celsius.

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  66. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Opportunist · · Score: 2

    Never stopped religious cults from announcing the end of the world, why not learn from the experienced con artists?

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  67. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Opportunist · · Score: 1

    The numbers are bullshit. Over here we learned that years ago, voting for the populist is like jacking off. Everyone does it, nobody admits he does.

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  68. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Opportunist · · Score: 1

    Good idea. What are we going to replace the various religions with that keep telling us the end of the world is near (the world ended twice so far this year, but I think there's room for a third coming)?

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
  69. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Which has mostly the opposite effect as El Nino.

  70. Your one hot day by fyngyrz · · Score: 1

    I live in the southeast part of the San Francisco Bay area. Last summer (a few months ago), it got up to 108 degrees one day. It's never been that hot since I moved here in 1989.

    That's why they call them "record temperatures." Records happen in the context of "just normal weather." Consider the context:

    Looking at the climate record for San Francisco for last summer, we can see that you had a couple of short-duration extreme outlying temperature events. We can also see from the records shown on the graph that these are not without precedent on other days in years past.

    Record breaking days happen; you can see that particular event clearly, but you can also see that it was a significant outlier. It would be absurd to take it as indication of a trend — it's not in line with the temperatures anywhere around it.

    None of this screams "climate change"; it's just weather. None of it screams "no climate change", either. Same reason. If you want to consider climate, you must go with large amounts of aggregate data.

    --
    I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
    1. Re:Your one hot day by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      So you want to say, 10, 50, 100 years ago, we had the same "random" peak temperatures during summer, with the same highs and the same occurrence?

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    2. Re:Your one hot day by fyngyrz · · Score: 1

      No, I'm saying that random peak weather events happen, and they are not where to look to draw broad conclusions.

      --
      I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
  71. Re: Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Dunno what part of N. America you were looking in, but in the western part 2017 certainly was hot. Hottest on record in CA at least, and competitive elsewhere (PHX has had to stop flights before due to heat, so 2017 wasn't necessarily the hottest there, but again it was very competitive). But year without summer - definitely NOT!

  72. What about the other summers? by Jaegs · · Score: 1

    Every Other Summer Will Shatter Heat Records Within a Decade

    So, what about the summers in between every other summer? Will they shatter records, too, or just average?

  73. lol, so that nice piece of northen Canada is looki by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Here's to the new NorCa

  74. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Who says gore is trustworthy?

  75. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by thegarbz · · Score: 4, Informative

    Hotter by 0.02 degrees.. AND THE MARGIN OF ERROR IS 0.1 degrees.

    Science! Learn it!

    If you were a scientist you'd not be looking at individual temperatures but at trends: http://www.economist.com/node/...

    Instead you make some claim of some arbitrary temperature the GP didn't mention (god knows in what relation to, he mentioned 12 different years). By the way the number you're looking for is +2.03 degrees, not 0.02 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc...

    But the real disappointment is that someone modded you up.

  76. The Real Problem is That You are Not Me by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Sea-Tac Airport just had another record year for traffic. Yeah Seattle, can you believe it? Ground-zero for the climate-change moral panic. Traffic has gotten expoentially worse too. But wait, that doesnt sound right? No, wait, oh thats right, climate-change is caused poor whites. You know, scary southern conservatives that hunt and live in trailers and use words like skeeters. As in, oh noes, the skeeters are a bitin. Yeah, never mind. Affluent ex-suburban white folks use magic pixie dust as energy while those deplorable Trump Trolls continue using the polluting stuff. Man they make me so mad. So so maaaaad. Why cant they be as concerned about the environment as we are? Just because they use, on average, half the energy that we do is not reason that they shouldnt be blamed. Its the talk that matters. The TALK. Everyone knows that! Its not how much you pollute, its which political side your on, and we are on the side of the high-polluting elites who are soooooooo worried about climite change! Wake up working-class white people! Our coastal villas are in big trouble, I mean climate change effects us all equally and were just worried about you! Thats why we call you names, cause we love and care about you so much and even though we deeply hate your over-populating children, we desperately, DESPERATELY care about how comfortable they are going to be in 60 years weather-wise. We dont want it to be too hot for them. We love them and we love you. We love everyone, except racists and homophobes and transgenderphobes and disabledphobes and xenophobes and well pretty much anyone that isnt us, so I guess we do hate you after all. So yeah, fuck off and stop polluting because climate change is the crisis of our time. I love me. No really I do. I love me soooo much. My mom and dad said that I was special and they still say it all the time. Its even included in a little note on the monthly check they send ad my mom draws little hearts for that extra special touch. See they knew that they could only birth a messiah after all they are them, and sure enough they did. So Im just going to moral panic my ass off to maintain my position in the established social order and remember I love black people and gay people and most of all trans people because they must be good people to be gender confused and you must be bad to be a cis, oh my how uncool is it to be a cis, but hey thats you lame-o, and stop using up my world and bringing your tucky kds into into it because my doggie loves me and he needs the space, oh yes I love dogs more than people because my dog loves me unquestionally and unconditionally while I have to earn it with humans and I dont like to make effort I just like to get credit so yeah CLIMATE CHANGE IS THE CRISIS OF OUR TIME!

  77. Also of note: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In related news, the sky is falling.

  78. And yet? by Shotgun · · Score: 1

    And yet, the average temperature is only scheduled to increase by 4C.

    --
    Aah, change is good. -- Rafiki
    Yeah, but it ain't easy. -- Simba
  79. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by tbannist · · Score: 1

    Oh Jesus. The first link contained a personal accusation from the author that climate scientists are trying to hide Milankovitch cycles, and you don't think it's trolling?

    --
    Fanatically anti-fanatical
  80. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Seems about the right depth in D.C.

  81. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I get all my science and weather news from Dilbert.

  82. P&R Games [Re:Testable predictions] by Tablizer · · Score: 1

    The potential perception problem is that there are multiple models that make multiple predictions. The predictions range from very minor changes to great changes.

    Those in the future with ill will can pick out the models that got it wrong as "evidence" the science is bogus. Those in the know see through such biased cherry-picking, but the general public wont.

  83. Hide the decline by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Are we talking about the actual temperature, or the adjusted temperatures? Because NOAA has been fudging the numbers for years to fit with their pre-conceived AGW theory, despite all the evidence that its not happening.
    https://science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/NOAA%20Karl%20Study%20One-Pager.pdf

    And let's not forget the famously fake "hockey stick" graph, courtesy of the known liar Michael Mann and his "nature trick". Gotta hide the decline.

    Summers haven't been any worse since I was a kid a few decades ago. The global temperature was on hiatus for 16 years, at least until NOAA fudges the data up to fit the narrative that its getting "hotter".

    No matter how much these frauds try to claim there is warming, all the models have been wrong, and their manipulation becomes more evident every day. I'm not saying we shouldn't clean the environment and treat the planet better, but AGW is a scam mostly for wealth redistribution from the US to the democrat liars and the rest of the world.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMqc7PCJ-nc for fun

    1. Re:Hide the decline by bloodstar · · Score: 1

      I'm willing to bet you haven't looked at a single paper in the climatology field. If you're so certain that the data is wrong, then take the raw information and show us. In fact, here's some links to get you started. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ and for the archives https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/has/... Here's your chance to get your name in lights! And with the current administration, you'll get so much airtime, you won't know what to do with yourself with all the money climatologists make. :)

      --
      "The bass, the rock, the mic, the treble. I like my coffee black, just like my metal" - Mindless Self Indulgence
    2. Re:Hide the decline by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're missing the debate: People are contesting that humans can do anything about it by being taxed to death and handing money to everyone else. You should debate that, because that is where the issues are.

  84. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The climate has been going through periods or warming and cooling long before we were ever around. During the warming periods each year would be, on average, warmer than the last. During cooling periods, on average, each year would be cooler than the last. The fact that in an upward trend the latest years are warmer than previous years isn't terribly surprising, it is called a trend and that is how trends work. The upward trend started around 1650 or so, when we started to out of the little ice age.

    Now, the 'record' you speak of is roughly 150 years old at best which people tend to ignore. Instead of saying clearly 'The hottest year in the temperature record which we define as the temperature record using instruments that are somewhat reliable and only goes back roughly 150 years.' they scream 'The hottest year ever!' without acknowledging our serious lack of good data for any reasonable length of time. Yes, there are proxy records, however they are guess work and suck. Our thermometer temperature record isn't much better. There are serious problems with anything before 1980 or so, and the older the record, the worse the quality. And that is just for the U.S. In other parts of the world, like third world countries, we don't have a freaking clue what the temperature was in 1950, much less 1850.

    But keep on keeping on with the 'Holy crap, it is a line with a slope!!!! We are all gonna die unless we destroy our infrastructure because I can't understand a simple trend'.

  85. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

    No, there is right now no La Nina, we are still in the ending of the El Nino.
    The next phase will be a "normal phase" and if we get afterwards a La Nina, or another El Nino ... we can not predict :D

    --
    Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  86. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by riverat1 · · Score: 1

    The current conditions are borderline La Nina but they haven't lasted long enough to be officially called one yet. La Nina tends to be cooler so if one develops it will be the warmest one ever measured.

  87. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

    Milankovitch cycles have nothing to do with CO2 ... so what is your point?

    --
    Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  88. Re: Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The problem with that narrative is that the changes you are talking about are not evenly distributed over the last 150 years but are concentrated in the last 50 or even last 20 years. That is precisely when humans started dumping greenhouse gasses in to the atmosphere.

    So, a theory that this is a ânatural cycleâ(TM) needs to explain both the timing of the changes we see AND why the greenhouse gasses are not the cause.

      We know we dumped a bunch into the atmosphere and it is relatively simple to verify they absorb IR light. If the current heating of earth is not due to greenhouse gasses, then your theory needs to account for where the heating is coming from and some magical cooling that offsets what the greenhouse gasses would normally do.

    Come up with that in a way that withstands academic rigor and youâ(TM)re on your way to picking up a Nobel prize for sure.

  89. Re: Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I should clarify... the bulk of our greenhouse gas emissions have been over the last 50 or so years, but my original post may have implied they were all in that timeframe.

  90. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Its fucking hilarious retards like you see environmentalism as some sort of grand conspiracy

  91. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Its beyond the standard deviation retard.

    Science! Learn it!

  92. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Admittedly we seriously underestimated the RETARD vote

  93. Fake science by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What fake science is this based off of? This sounds like more of the âoePay us carbon taxes to save the planet!!!!â

    No, itâ(TM)s not getting warmer. No, the polar icecaps are not melting. No, the sea level isnâ(TM)t rising. Yes, you are idiots for buying into this nonsense.

  94. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yes, that's exactly why it might end up cooler than last year.

  95. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Missing the point. Just shows we have been talking about it for a while now. Ever since we stopped talking about global cooling to be precise.

  96. Re: Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    La Niña has its greatest effects in the Spring. This would not be considered the warmest La Niña on record because La Niña would only be in effect one or two months of the year. The coldest temps and biggest shows have actually come in neutral years. La Niña is not the dramatic weather-maker you are making it out to be. Especially if it is a weak one. Assuming you realize there are varying degrees on La Niña from almost none, to extreme. This one is not shaping up to look strong at all.

  97. Re: Heard this twenty years ago... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Then stop driving and flying. When the people who worry about it most change their behavior, dramatically, Iâ(TM)ll stand up and take note. No more âdo as i say not as i doâ(TM) for me. Iâ(TM)m done with it. Iâ(TM)d rather the earth overheat.

  98. Re: Heard this twenty years ago... by riverat1 · · Score: 1

    I'm not trying to make La Nina a big deal. If there's a La Nina this year going into next year it will be a weak one. But if you look at long term global temperature records generally the years with El Ninos are the warmest, the years where ENSO is neutral are in the middle and the years with La Ninas are the coldest. That doesn't necessarily mean it always happens that way but that's what usually happens.

  99. agreed - Thought Trump would win more bigly by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    but a bunch of retards insisted on voting for probably the most self-delusional, entitled and corrupt person to ever run for the office --- and then threw temper tantrums for a year after she lost. They're so delusional that they still cannot face reality and perhaps they will never recover.

  100. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by tbannist · · Score: 1

    When someone is making such an obviously false claim, it's hard to credit it as "honest research".

    --
    Fanatically anti-fanatical
  101. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by AutodidactLabrat · · Score: 1

    2.86 million IS a landslide...unless the microstate Republicans dictate otherwise.

  102. Re:Heard this twenty years ago... by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

    Which claim?

    --
    Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  103. Okay by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What about the winters? Where are they on that front? Why only mention one of four seasons? Why the focus directly on hottest summers? Why not mention some other parameters of the seasons during the periods in question? After all of the basics there, maybe I would ask the following: What is in this /. "article" that would actually pique my interest to make me do a follow-up and in-depth investigation into it to learn more? These are simpleton questions that anyone could posit to query the narrative of this article as presented on /. or any other venue. In our case, I see no reason to follow up except morbid curiosity thanks to the massively overblown climate science debate and the expectation that any reader would have given the focus on only one facet of the issue as presented here on /. Note: I did not follow up on the info, that is not the point here. The point is that presenting partisan political points, and that IS what this climate debate has become, regardless of where the truth stands, has no more value than click-bait. Summary: If you are going to present what a great many people see as click-bait, you need to put some "meat" in the article beyond the minimal necessary to draw some clicks or you begin the inevitable descent into tabloidism. Finally, why is the formatting I use while formulating my post not retained? All of the line breaks are discarded and everything is run together on my screen during preview.

  104. lies lies lies by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    bla bla bla bla stfu