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In Banking, 70% of Front-Office Jobs Will Be Dislocated By AI (americanbanker.com)
An anonymous reader shares a report: Some bankers and observers have suggested that only the boring parts of jobs, drudgery like data entry and filling out forms, will disappear so the humans will be able to focus on more interesting tasks, and that no actual jobs will be lost. Bank employees themselves seem to think this. In an Accenture survey released last week of 1,300 nonexecutive bank employees, 67% said they believe AI will improve their work-life balance, and 57% expect it will expand their career prospects.
But Autonomous Research also issued a report last week that estimated that in the U.S. alone, 2.5 million financial services employees will be "exposed" to AI technologies in the front, middle and back office -- 1.2 million working in banking and lending, 460,000 in investment management, and 865,000 in insurance. "These functions will see 20-40% productivity gains, or unemployment, depending on your vantage point," the report stated. About $1 trillion in costs will be exposed to AI transformation in financial services sectors by 2030, according to the report; $450 million of this would in banking. In banking, 70% of front-office jobs will be dislocated by AI, the researchers say: 485,000 tellers, 219,000 customer service representatives, and 174,000 loan interviewers and clerks. They will be replaced by chatbots, voice assistants and automated authentication and biometric technology.
And 96,000 financial managers and 13,000 compliance officers will be laid off as AI-based anti-money-laundering, anti-fraud, compliance and monitoring software fills in. Another 250,000 loan officers will lose their jobs to AI-based credit underwriting and smart contracts technology.
But Autonomous Research also issued a report last week that estimated that in the U.S. alone, 2.5 million financial services employees will be "exposed" to AI technologies in the front, middle and back office -- 1.2 million working in banking and lending, 460,000 in investment management, and 865,000 in insurance. "These functions will see 20-40% productivity gains, or unemployment, depending on your vantage point," the report stated. About $1 trillion in costs will be exposed to AI transformation in financial services sectors by 2030, according to the report; $450 million of this would in banking. In banking, 70% of front-office jobs will be dislocated by AI, the researchers say: 485,000 tellers, 219,000 customer service representatives, and 174,000 loan interviewers and clerks. They will be replaced by chatbots, voice assistants and automated authentication and biometric technology.
And 96,000 financial managers and 13,000 compliance officers will be laid off as AI-based anti-money-laundering, anti-fraud, compliance and monitoring software fills in. Another 250,000 loan officers will lose their jobs to AI-based credit underwriting and smart contracts technology.
And Bitcoin will dispose of the rest.
I can replace 97% of ALL banking with AI.
From the ceo on down to the very bottom.
Just need some tech guys and some sales/data entry people to sell more advanced investment items.
And someone to move physical money around and stock the ATM.
No problem so long as we can repeatedly press "star", "pound", or "0" until we're connected to a human.
The end of slavery was going to take all the jobs. Then it was going to be industrialization that was going to take all the jobs. Then it was going to be immigrants. Than automation. Then globalization. Now it's immigrants again that are taking all the jobs.
Yet, after all that, we still have jobs in this nation.
Something tells me that even with the future of AI people will still find things to do.
I don't know how much more AI can reduce the number of manual jobs in banks. In Europe most activities can, and are, performed by ATMs. Either ones in-branch, in a halfway lobby or street-facing. Here they don't just dispense cash, buy will accept pay-ins of cash or cheques, allow you to order statements, chequebooks (if there are still any people who use them?) and they will even scan bills and pay them. The bill-paying system can also set up a direct debit so the same bill will be paid automatically in the future if you wish.
The only people who seem to actually require human interaction are those who are uncomfortable with the thought of pressing buttons and following on-screen instructions and those few who need something unusual such as a foreign currency conversion (although banks offer the worst exchange rates) or who want to pay-in a bagfull of pennies.
politicians are like babies' nappies: they should both be changed regularly and for the same reasons
Lets get the fuckin auto pilot working on de fuckin Telsa's b4 we start to worrin about dem take our jobs!
Auto-filling a PDF form is a lot easier than navigation in the physical world. Replacing many banking jobs wouldn't even require AI. A Perl script should be enough.
Automation yes. Huge difference, but don't tell the PR buzzword people that!
Seriously, I can't remember the last time I had to ask someone at the bank for something. Everything can be either done online or through a quick call, which could easily be automated as well.
Listen Bill. Auto filling PDFs require some sERIOS skills. Are you kidding me? With the auto pilot if you blockchain that shit and float it on the stock market its all good. With a Perl script, perl is this language that is far more sophosfistingcatered than the AI bitcoin? doya get my drift?
Yes, there was employment after the industrial revolution. It took about 80 years for new tech to catch up and replace the jobs lost. During that time there was mass unemployment, poverty and wars. Lots of wars. Two lost generations. But hey, the survivors will thank us, right?
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in an economy with a "3.9% unemployment rate". That should tell you something if you're even paying a _little_ attention. That unemployment rate is bunk. People left the job market when they couldn't get jobs that paid enough to go to work. As the economy got worse they eventually ran out of money or relatives and had to do whatever. Hence the 'gig' economy and what not.
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There still seems to be individuals who want that face to face interaction with a person. I know an android may fill in that aspect of business in replacing the face to face but that's years off in both robotics and AI with human behavior so it can seem relatable. The financial institution I work for seems to be focusing on relationships with the community. One thing they could automate(or eliminate) is middle management.
There will come a time with AIs when they are advanced enough to recognise and provoke emotional reactions in people to get a corresponding response. This is what Narcissistic people do and I think it's reasonable to draw the comparison because AIs don't have any emotions, it's a computer.
I came to this realisation about narcissists from a book I am writing that is a study of their style of psychological abuse. What I observed was that for those people they are disconnected from the normal emotions of a fully functional human being and are usually only left with shame. Except an AI doesn't even have shame.
Consequently I deduced that a narcissistic human in that state has had many of the normal functions of a human being atrophied (because of the abuses they themselves suffered) so in that sense they have similar attributes to the type of computing power we may see in the coming decades.
To be specific, people with these personality disorders have responses based in rote learning, they learn what an appropriate response is instead of generating one from emotions they don't have, they then respond to provoke a response from a person based on similar rote learning. That's not a lot different from the way an AI collects and responds to inputs.
Turning things upside down, were we to examine a human brain from the perspective of computing power and then reduced it's functionality just how much would you have to take away to get a AI in 20, 10 and 5 years from now considering the state the technology is at now?
Just how damaged would a human brain have to be to mimic an AI?
My ism, it's full of beliefs.
You do know that immigrants create jobs as well as occupying them, right?
Also, who will retrain the employees and enforce shorter workweeks without some kind of communist/socialist intervention? Most companies I know don't want to spend money on retraining, and want employees to work as many hours as possible, presumably so they don't have to pay benefits to additional employees. They may also resent paying a living wage for 30 hours of work instead of 50. So they might need some strong-arming to go along with your plan.
Think of what some smart people can do with an AI:
"Actually, I'm paying off a mortgage early."
AI: You're in the wrong line, customer. Over there
Domestic spying is now "Benign Information Gathering"
Banking and insurance are communist welfare scams, a mafia system defended by the government.
> they were the jobs data from LAST YEAR.
If you'd like to see the effects of ever-increasing automation, machines getting better and better, compare those last-year numbers to earlier years. Check out how real (inflation adjusted) median income has changed in the last 10 years (up 8%), the last 20 years (up 25%), the last 50 years (up 50%).
...has a long and very error-prone history. AI will more than likely turn out to be useful for different things than they're talking about today. Today's VC's are only interested in 'disrupting' employment sectors by reducing the human hours worked. They can't seem to see anything beyond that.
No, no. AI will find new jobs for all of us. Pretty sure. Nothing to see here.
(We call that "denial").
we're giving more and more money to a smaller and smaller group of people. Rather than "trickle down" they're using that money to buy out their competitors. They've got so much of it they can and will pay 2-3x what any sane person would. Then they can make their money back because they have a virtual monopoly. Years of weak anti-trust enforcement in the name of ending "job-killing regulations" lets them do it.
The people who are setting you up have been hard at work on it since Regan was in the Whitehouse. Obama was a minor bump in the road (very minor, he's still a Corporate Democrat) but they've bought out pretty much everything now. That last tax cut was overwhelmingly unpopular. A Tax Cut. Unpopular. Let that sink in. And It _still_ passed. The ruling class were going around saying if it didn't they'd cut the politicians off. We've got open bribery and nobody seems to care. Seriously, at this point I don't think you or me stand a chance...
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autopilot is easy. the only obstacle is having the right lawyers to keep you from getting sued when you kill people.
It seems to be a revolution but infact it will hurt the humans.
GS Home Remodeling
in land of laalaa called finland... we had banking chrisis in early 90's which resulted nation wide depression what resulted in banking sector that everything done at banks desk via person costs outragerous amount per action... pay a bill it costs 6 euros pay two bills its 12 euros :D :D :D i also predict this is what happens in shops in future... if you want human service... its so expensive average folks cannot afford it... and ones whom can afford... prolly just hire somebody in firstplace
so while finnish banks already had dial-up services for modem users they merely extended electronic services to internet... and gasp people were paying their bills on their own... no annoying data-entry jobs at bank!
Unsurprisingly they have moronic expectations of their futures. Hoo ahh.
Bring the future. All those USAamericans need to die.
AI will strip more jobs than foreign workers already do.... the only way you will get better work/life balance is if you actually own the AI, or the business that uses it.
If there was artificial intelligence, the robot would realize the huge energy savings by killing all humans.
It would cut costs, reduce energy consumption, lower the number of services that need to be provided, preserve resources, reduce crime and reduce health care costs.
Auto-filling a PDF form is a lot easier than navigation in the physical world. Replacing many banking jobs wouldn't even require AI. A Perl script should be enough.
In case you haven't noticed Billy, in today's world a Perl script is AI.
Train the people? They are unable to pay for it now. Less working hours? Now THAT is what socialism is about. So why not start with that?
Don't fight for your country, if your country does not fight for you.
Ever heard of this concept ?
The corporations want an ample supply of Cheap Labour right now and HERE. So they are all for H1B and similar schemes. While older Americans and Europeans are out of job, of course.
They nicely paid Bush, Obama and Clinton to enable this. They demonize Trump because he is not so willing.
As soon as there is no longer an oversupply of labour, employers will get much nicer. Basic law of market economy.
If everybody became a C++ Ninja with a PHD in Computer Science and another in Math, then there would be no unemployed people. Because we know Google could employ 160 Million of such Ninjas.
And all those nasty manufacturing jobs can be done in a sweatshop in China. That's good for Google and Apple. Both have spent lots of good money to bribe Clinton. There must be a Return on Investment !
And yeah, who cares about fellow Americans, if they are mere manufacturing workers. They should eat cake !
I have some real education in Computer Science, as opposed to the amateurs who read some bullshit and regurgitate it.
What is sold as "AI" is actually very primitive. Typically, it is an artificial neural network that consists out of a few hundred simulated neurons at max. You cannot do more on a single server processor.
Compare that to an ant: each single one of them has tens of thousands of neurons.
Humans have in the order of 100 Billion neurons. Each one of them has on average 10000 connections to other neurons.
Elitists like Musk and Marvin Minsky need litttle tricks to obtain funding and capital. So they emit this "AI will take all our jobs" bullcrap. They like to scare people, because it is a way of control and easy life.
Nations with well-educated, well-trained HUMANS will be at the top and easily control those nations which have a shittastic education system.
That is also why the NATO elite is scared about Russia. Russians are quite well educated and they have a strong spirit. Hard to rule over them. The NATO elite is really scared they could not dumb down the Russians. Imagine if that phenomenon spread to NATO countries. Then the elite of banksters and freemasons would lose their grip !
None of that automation has to do with AI.
Simply using rational management and organization principles could eliminate a serious chunk of banking jobs.
Why does every bank need their own shitty version of a banking software system ? Run SAP Banking and cut all those developers and most of the IT staff.
Why use paper checks ? Use some sort of electronic system and save all the hassle of scanning.
Why have a complicated internation transfer system ? Use Paypal or an equivalent.
All that matters is the Moneypeople. Whoever does the REAL WORK and whose family has actually built the nation's industrial/agricultural/medical/security (read: economic) power, does not matter.
We should have a dollar-based voting rule: Each million dollar of property gives you one vote.
Then all would work according to your fellow elitists wishes.
We know that. That's why Trump was elected. Because we know about you and your fellows.
But who am I kidding? Bankers are all about making more money for themselves, and screw the customer and the horse he rode in on.
So this will make probably make the experience of dealing with banks even more teeth-grindingly frustrating.
If that doesnt fully solve the problem, we can go to a shorter work week to distribute remaining work evenly among more people in smaller chunks. There is no need for communist/socialist basic incomes and other crackpot ideas.
I don't see how enforcing a shorter work week (while keeping the same total income I presume, i.e. increasing the hourly wage - otherwise, what is the point exactly?) is less communist/socialist/crackpot than a basic income (which is just a cheaper way to distribute welfare payments to the unemployed, which already exist in most countries).
Either way, you're advocating for intervention in the economy to stop companies doing what you presume they would otherwise do: fire people they don't need anymore.
"and they will even scan bills and pay them."
Until the image recognition fails because something is hand written and you need a human to do it manually.
The only people pressing for reducing actual humans in banks are the banks themselves (to save money) and millenial geeks who break out in a cold sweat whenever they have to engage in human interaction. Normal people actually like having a fallback option of an actual person being able to help.
Whoever stands in the way of corruption must be a "Nazi". That makes sense.
There is really no need for hysterics. First, stop all immigration. Now. This is so that the remaining work can go to our own citizens.
Yeah, let's not panic...as you suggest a "solution" that has proven impossible for even Trump to pull off and not look like the largest asshole in the universe. But hey, don't panic.
Secondly, retrain employees for the jobs that are available, as needed.
Oh, this one again. There's a valid reason a billion humans hold highly repetitive simple jobs, and often for their entire life. Because they're not mentally capable of getting an education and being re-trained. We humans have advanced in many ways, but mental capacity isn't one of them And the entire point of automation is to take the "available" jobs.
If that doesnt fully solve the problem, we can go to a shorter work week to distribute remaining work evenly among more people in smaller chunks.
The overwhelming majority lives paycheck to paycheck, and your suggestion is to cut paychecks by 50%. Good luck with the angry mob, because you're sure as shit not going to convince employers to double their payroll costs.
There is no need for communist/socialist basic incomes and other crackpot ideas.
Understand that UBI in the future will be nothing more than that old time-tested "crackpot" concept we call Welfare today. If Welfare was such a stupidly insane idea, then we would have probably figured out how to get rid of it long ago. Humans will become unemployable. You have that problem today, and that problem will grow considerably tomorrow. Figure out how you're going to sustain families and lives, because taxing the automation overlords to pay for it sure as shit won't work; we can't get the rich to pay taxes now.
They said the same about the ATM and in return that made it cheaper to open more bank offices, essentially creating more banking jobs. Those doom and gloom folks also forget that people are very attached to their hard earned money and rather trust a person than a machine. Having real people at real brick and mortar locations will become the biggest differentiator.
If nobody has a job to pay the loan off:
Why is this never discussed? Decision making at the executive level could much more efficiently be carried out by AI.
He who forgets will be destined to remember. - EV
I'm sure a lot of people think that getting rid of all the overhead in every industry is a good idea...everything will be super-cheap, no one will pay for expensive middlemen in a transaction, etc. What I think people don't realize is that this overhead they want to get rid of is what's actually holding the economy together.
Especially in banking, both front- and back-office workers make at least a decent middle-class salary, and some make much more than that. If the pace of worker replacement is too fast, all the consumption these workers use their pay for will be removed from the system over a very short time. These workers won't pay taxes, won't buy houses and cars, won't have children, etc. Corporate office work used to be a secure alternative to factory work or the service industries...but it looks like we're in for a big change. What I wonder is what these workers will end up doing...I worked in banking IT earlier in my career and there are legions of people essentially doing manual paperwork processing, even though the paper is computer data these days.
All I'm saying is that if we want AI to take over, we're going to have to rip down the entire work-to-consume economic model, and that is not going away without a major fight.
When I actually need to go into the bank for something it's because it's something their webpage or telephone automated system can't handle and therefore I need an actual human being to help me, not some half-assed pseudo-intelligent so-called deep-learning algorithm 'expert' system.
What kind of nasty, un-American piece of shit would want to doom our own citizens to working jobs all their life?
If you're dead-set on fucking people over, at least let some of it happen to immigrants. I'm not saying to pick on them especially, but if people have to work jobs, immigrants should be at just as much risk as native Americans.
Sorry I called you a piece of shit above. This, of course, is actually a very good idea. Remember, everyone: the goal is to get everyone's work week down to 0 hours. I just don't think you should give immigrants a special break on this; they should be made to work as much as anyone else.
But you can't make them work, if you don't let them in. OTOH the more immigrants we can get to come here, the more we can spread that work out, so that we can all at least approach 0 hours. So the whole stop-immigration thing is totally counter-productive. It's the exact opposite of what we need for as stronger economy, where we finally get to build starships and then go looking for green-skinned alien poontang.
Sounds painful!
That word does not mean what you seem to think it means.
Slashdot editors are the ones that need replacing by AI. Hell, I'd even settle for NATURAL intelligence, never mind artificial.
We yeah, if you choose exclude most of the income increases, you don't have much income increase left.
As the Pew article you linked mentioned, benefits have increased 60% in the last 15 years, partly due to tax changes. The wages you cite used to be used to pay for medical care, child care, etc. Employer-covered medical (which is not included in hourly wages) has increased 79%.
The trend in recent decades has been toward tax-free compensation such as medical, dental, HSA and FSA, 401k matching, etc. Nearly half of my compensation is various tax-advantaged accounts rather than wages.
According to the CBO, between 1979 and 2011, gross median household income, adjusted for inflation, rose from $59,400 to $75,200, or 26.5%. However, once adjusted for household size, after-tax real median household income grew 46%.
I should ignore your question since it starts with a nice bomb of racism.
But the basic answer is, people work jobs making things, get paid for those jobs, then spend the money buying things. Then other people get hired to make the things they buy, and the economy and employment grow. Or if they're entrepreneurially minded (many U.S. immigrants are), they may form a successful business and begin hiring other people themselves.
This works even if they are illiterate or are born in a country you're afraid to visit.
Racism? Where did I mention race? Kindly point to the sentence that contained racism. "Making you feel bad" isn't racism. Fuck your feelings.
Again, nope. Entrepreneurs are a special breed, only a tiny percent of the population has the personality traits needed. Illiteracy is a barrier to entrepreneurship. How are you going to comply with tax laws without reading them? How are you going to ensure corporate social responsibility? How are you going to make sure to enforce diversity at your startup if you aren't even aware it's a priority?
If we are actually getting this kind of person, we need to stop immediately as their home countries badly need these people to make progress. That America should steal their best and brightest is a tremendous crime. Their countries will remain shitholes as long as America continues this committing this great historical wrong. How do we think we can get away with keeping them down just so we - the already wealthy - can profit? It's a sick abuse of oppressed people and needs to come to a screeching halt.
> The number of positions that come with medical benefits is falling
Thanks for the belly laugh. You might find it interesting to go look at the actual numbers for medical benefits over the last 50 years.
Well, I have to admit whenever I go into a bank it is generally pretty boring. Presumably the AI wouldn't have to be very "intelligent." But maybe I'm just being snarky.