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Tesla Meets Self-Imposed Deadline For Model 3, Rolls Out 7,000 Cars In a Week (cnbc.com)

Elon Musk tweeted on Sunday that the company produced 7,000 cars last week, including 5,000 Model 3 electric sedans. "Beating a self-imposed deadline, the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Musk, two workers at the factory told Reuters on Sunday." CNBC reports: The 5,000th Model 3 finished final quality checks at the Fremont, California factory and was ready to go around 5 a.m. PDT (1200 GMT), one person told Reuters. It was not clear if Tesla could maintain that level of production for a longer period of time. Tesla had a goal of producing 5,000 Model 3s per week before the close of the second quarter on Saturday to demonstrate it could mass produce the battery-powered sedan.

196 of 356 comments (clear)

  1. And ... if they hadn't? by Opportunist · · Score: 2, Funny

    What if they hadn't beat that self-imposed deadline?

    Oh. They would not have twittered.

    I ... see. Well, nothing to see here, carry on...

    --
    We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    1. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Barsteward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      it'll stop all the whiners who said they'd never do it. i bet the shorters are a bit worried now.

      --
      "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
    2. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by gravewax · · Score: 1

      i bet the shorters are a bit worried now.

      I am sure they are, however we probably need to see the financials first and see how many they actually produced for the quarter to be sure they didn't just pump up the numbers for the final week.

    3. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by religionofpeas · · Score: 1

      The tweet isn't really important here. Producing 7000 cars is.

    4. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Opportunist · · Score: 1

      If I had stock in Tesla (or any car company) I would rather want to know how many cars they sell, not how many they produce. Selling makes you rich, not producing. Producing only makes you poor.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    5. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by djinn6 · · Score: 2, Informative

      I doubt the Q2 report will show the information everyone wants, which is the production trend over time. If you only look at the quarter average, they won't be making anywhere near 5000 a week, especially given they've had several shutdowns to retool. But it's still possible they ramped up significantly in the final weeks and has a trend line towards 500k for the entire year.

      As for their financial situation, I predict they'll still be in the red after accounting for SG&A, though maybe not as bad as last quarter due to the layoffs a few weeks ago. Interest payments will be an even bigger burden and R&D will not have changed much. Finally for capex, it might be a good thing that they didn't get the building permit they wanted and settled for a tent instead.

      Their main problem will still be cash flow, since they're not making enough to cover their expenses. If the "pay another $2500 to order now" thing doesn't pan out, they'll need even more high-interest loans, or worst case, another round of stock offerings.

    6. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by religionofpeas · · Score: 5, Informative

      All of them.

    7. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Narcocide · · Score: 1

      They may not have "twittered" but you can bet every single other dipshit hater would have.

    8. Re: And ... if they hadn't? by aleck7 · · Score: 1

      In Teslaâ(TM)s case thatâ(TM)s obviously not a problem â" they will sell of them faster than any other mass car producer.

    9. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Rei · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The layoffs will be a benefit in Q3. They're a hit in Q2 due to severance.

      Correct that the Q2 delivery numbers will be low. Which is actually a very important thing, to keep the tax credit from expiring in Q2. That credit is potentially worth half a billion dollars to Tesla's customers, and some proportion will be used in buying more options. Options are high margin - sometimes almost pure profit. You want it to expire at the start of a quarter, not the end of one. Not like any manufacturer would ever admit to trying to "time" it.

      500k Model 3 per year will still require significant expansion; current production is 250k Model 3 per year (+100k S+X). However, they've clearly found a way to expand cheaply. Tesla's last announced plan was to hit 6k in Q3. Doesn't sound particularly difficult given how much they scaled up in Q2.

      Nobody, not Tesla or any serious analyst, expects them to be positive in Q2. But more and more analysts appear to be agreeing with Tesla's forecast (widely panned by analysts a couple months ago) of being sustainably profitable later this year. Tesla believes it'll be Q3.

      There's no need for more cash, so the topic of loans or stock offerings is right out.

      As a reminder to anyone reading this who disagrees with anything written above: you have a tool to financially profit off your disagreement with me - short selling. Unless you don't like earning money or something... or unless you don't actually believe what you preach. I mean, even if you had to put it on your credit card, how could you turn down such a rate of return?

      --
      Why must all aquatic villains play the organ?
    10. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

      What if they hadn't beat that self-imposed deadline?

      Oh. They would not have twittered.

      I ... see. Well, nothing to see here, carry on...

      Corporate goals/deadlines are generally always 'self imposed'. Seems folks think Tesla deserves some type of credit for this?

      It is the mark of a well run company to be able to accurately predict performance and then to hit those goals on schedule. It is even more important when you are in a massive capital burn mode. Amazon was in that place, they almost always exceeded their growth and financial targets.

      Musk isn't very good at defining targets that can be hit on schedule and/or hitting them on schedule. That doesn't mean he will fail, but it is generally a bad sign.

      As for shorts losing money, it won't be as much as many think. Most large short investors are quite sophisticated with hedging.

    11. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Hm... I am finally going to hastily ;-) order a Model 3 now... because buying a car hastily assembled on a hastily put together assembly line in a hastily(see the theme here?) built tent by a company hitting their customers for additional cash has always been a dream.... or maybe not...

      And, yes tehre is more than one way to bet on a falling stock... F.ex. by buing puts... and without using credit.... no FUD required...

    12. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

      There's no need for more cash.....

      So all future R&D and production will be funded entirely by exisiting cash and positive cash flow? I am asking as your meaning is unclear.

    13. Re: And ... if they hadn't? by tehcyder · · Score: 2
      I am no fan of Tesla, but I think you are falling for the ""I think there is a world market for maybe five computers" fallacy.

      Using current sales of electric cars as a guide to the future is meaningless. It looks like many European countries (at least) will have effectively banned ICE vehicles within 10 years.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    14. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by MasseKid · · Score: 1

      Yeah, that's kinda the point of positive cash flow / profitability...

    15. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by sfcat · · Score: 1

      it'll stop all the whiners who said they'd never do it. i bet the shorters are a bit worried now.

      Ya think. Tesla closed at $344 on Friday. In pre-market trading its $366.

      --
      "Those that start by burning books, will end by burning men."
    16. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Zorpheus · · Score: 1

      It doesn't matter what the financials are. You can't short against a hype and stupidity if it lasts long enough.

    17. Re: And ... if they hadn't? by orlanz · · Score: 1

      Tesla isn't at that maturity point yet. It's still a new business getting to full steam compared to traditional car makers. Even if many drop out of the preorder, there is still a pretty good demand gap that the primary concern is not being able to fulfill orders will result in lack of working capital. Secondary concern is that delayed deliveries will result in cancelled orders; no cash flow, no working capital.

    18. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

      Yeah, that's kinda the point of positive cash flow / profitability...

      I just wanted to be clear. I had not seen anyone say that Tesla now has enough margin to fund future operations and development, and would not need any more cash at all.

    19. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by mjwx · · Score: 2

      If I had stock in Tesla (or any car company) I would rather want to know how many cars they sell, not how many they produce. Selling makes you rich, not producing. Producing only makes you poor.

      Nope. You can sell all you want, but if you have no product people are going to ask for their money back.

      Seen plenty of companies try to sell their way out of a production problem, it's never worked. Selling is less important than producing as good products sell themselves.

      Finally, the saying your looking for regarding Tesla is "revenue is vanity, profit is sanity". It doesn't matter how much you sell if you're making a loss on each one.

      --
      Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
    20. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by haruchai · · Score: 3, Informative

      "If you only look at the quarter average, they won't be making anywhere near 5000 a week, especially given they've had several shutdowns to retool"

      They produced 28,578 Model 3s in Q2 vs 9766 in Q1 2018 so the avg weekly production went from 751 to 2198, an improvement of 342%

      --
      Pain is merely failure leaving the body
    21. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by tsa · · Score: 1

      I wonder how much quality control suffered from this. Tesla's build quality already was not worth writing home about.

      --

      -- Cheers!

    22. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by cheesybagel · · Score: 1, Interesting

      In Soviet Russia, people always avoided things build near the end of their production drives. To meet the yearly production quota, they typically build things as slipshod as possible in the last quarter.

    23. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by vtcodger · · Score: 1, Funny

      'Hm... I am finally going to hastily ;-) order a Model 3 now."

      Brilliant decision. You should jump at this opportunity to spend $40,000 or (most likely) more for a vehicle that is only moderately more inconvenient to own than a 1998 Toyota Camry.

      For an extra $5000, you can get the optional autopilot that can drive you into bridges, police cars and fire engines if you have trouble managing that on your own. To my knowledge, there's no attermarket kit for the Camry that'll do that available at any price.

      --
      You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
    24. Re: And ... if they hadn't? by vtcodger · · Score: 1

      "It looks like many European countries (at least) will have effectively banned ICE vehicles within 10 years."

      I doubt that'll actually happen when they actually get around to trying to formulate legislation. But I do think that the combination of high fuel prices, still emission standards, and driver convenience will cause a substantial switch from pure ICE to hybrid and PHEV vehicles with higher gas "mileage".

      --
      You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
    25. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by vtcodger · · Score: 1

      The semi looks to be a perfectly viable product, but one has to wonder how big the market is. I would guess it will need a (expensive) custom charger if you plan to turn it around in less than 4-5 hours. That's likely to make it mostly depot to depot?

      --
      You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
    26. Re: And ... if they hadn't? by dev-in-seattle · · Score: 2

      Remember that to maximize the tax deduction they reduced us sales in q2 to say under 200k, lots more went to other countries like canada. Q3 will be much higher sles. So look at sales and production.

    27. Re: And ... if they hadn't? by dev-in-seattle · · Score: 1

      If they stopped successfully making new things at fast enough rates, they'd fail. They don't fail. That's why they keep going.

    28. Re: And ... if they hadn't? by Zorpheus · · Score: 1

      Yeah, I also don't think that they fail. But to justify the stock price Tesla has to grow a lot larger without needing much more capital. This is what short sellers bet against. They might be right, but the hype can kill them anyway.

    29. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Solandri · · Score: 2

      I doubt the shorters are that worried. Tesla stock has a market cap close to GM's right now. GM produces more than 8,000 cars per day . So there's still a huge chasm between Tesla's valuation and reality.

    30. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 2

      As of 8:57 AM PST on July 2nd, it's at $337.46 and falling... Looks like the market doesn't like the report of missing their goal...

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    31. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Solandri · · Score: 2

      Generally, everything that's produced is sold. People have this fanciful misconception that unsold merchandise is disposed of in landfils, probably due to journalists trying to make their stories sound more dramatic. It doesn't work like that.

      When you over-produce something (supply exceeds demand), the cost to produce that inventory is a sunk cost. You've already paid for it, meaning there's no way to get it back (you can't go back in time and not spend the money to produce the items). So the cost to manufacture the product becomes a non-factor. Even recovering part of the production cost is preferable to recovering none of it. So when supply exceeds demand, you simply lower the price (below manufacturing cost if necessary) until the demand increases to match the supply you've got. And eventually everything you've produced gets sold.

      I had a run-in with a store owner who didn't understand this. He'd bought some Intel 80286 laptops for resale. When they didn't sell as well as he'd hoped, he refused to lower their price below what he'd paid for them. Two years later when 80486 laptops were the norm, he was still trying to sell the 80286 laptops for the same price as 80486 laptops, so of course nobody was buying. He ended up losing his entire investment in those laptops. If he'd ignored the sunk costs and priced the laptops below his purchase price, he might have been able to sell them losing only 20%-30%. Instead he lost 100%.

    32. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Ogive17 · · Score: 1

      In the automotive business, profits are typically earned through services at dealerships.

      The more cars on the road, the better. The more non-warranty repairs/maintenance, the better. However it'll take a few more years for there to be a significant number of non-warranty Teslas on the road to bring the profit number up enough to cover R&D and production costs.

      Now they need to hope their cars stay on the road long enough to bring in those non-warranty sales while at the same time keeping customers happy enough to want new cars 5-8 years down the road.

      --
      "Action without philosophy is a lethal weapon; philosophy without action is worthless."
    33. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by lexman098 · · Score: 1

      For an extra $5000, you can get the optional autopilot that can drive you into bridges, police cars and fire engines if you have trouble managing that on your own. To my knowledge, there's no attermarket kit for the Camry that'll do that available at any price.

      Sure there is.

    34. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Rei · · Score: 2

      Yes, there's 15k in transit right now. But do you think there's any other manufacturer out there who wouldn't do likewise? GM's up next to hit their limit, do you honestly think they won't try to time it?

      --
      Why must all aquatic villains play the organ?
    35. Re: And ... if they hadn't? by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      It looks like many European countries (at least) will have effectively banned ICE vehicles within 10 years.
      New ICE cars yes, but it is rather 20 years.
      And it won't make it "illegal" to use the existing ICE cars until they break.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    36. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Train0987 · · Score: 1

      They're going to lose their asses on warranty claims for those 5,000 rushed vehicles.

    37. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by jellomizer · · Score: 1

      Being that Tesla is a publicly traded company, they probably would had to report a lower expected production (again) and that will normally hit the stock price.

      The self imposed deadline, was a way of measuring what they can do and work up too.

      --
      If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
    38. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by DigiShaman · · Score: 1

      To my knowledge, there's no attermarket kit for the Camry that'll do that available at any price.

      Sure there is. You can do a lot with a few well placed bricks, a wooden stick, and some rope. Timing of course, is everything.

      --
      Life is not for the lazy.
    39. Re: And ... if they hadn't? by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      For AC, breaking Q1 2018 down since you are ignorant:

      Revenue: $3.4 billion

      Cost of Revenue: $2.95 billion

      Gross Margin: $456 million

      SG&A: $686.4 million

      Now, take the gross margin and subtract SG&A. That's a loss of $230 million RIGHT THERE. That does not include R&D, capital expenses, interest on debt, nothing. Just the cost of making the product and selling/delivering the product. Already a loss of about $6600 per vehicle sold in Q1 2018, BEFORE any R&D, capex, interest, or taxes.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    40. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Ogive17 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Who do you think sells spare parts to the dealerships? Or are you under the impression dealers order original equipment parts directly from the manufacturers?

      --
      "Action without philosophy is a lethal weapon; philosophy without action is worthless."
    41. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by mlyle · · Score: 1

      Everyone knows Tesla has a huge order book, so that's not the problem. The problem is producing enough cars at a good enough cost structure to not go bankrupt.

    42. Re: And ... if they hadn't? by mlyle · · Score: 1

      The counter-argument to this is that they've pre-scaled SG&A to some extent for larger unit counts, and that SG&A (and R&D) don't scale at all linearly with sales amounts. It's certainly true to some extent-- whether it's true enough for them to reach true sustained profitability is the open question.

    43. Re: And ... if they hadn't? by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      If you look at the last 4 quarters, and the last 4 years, SG&A has been pretty consistent at ~20% (Std Dev of 1.2%). It is scaling linearly, at least over the last 4+ years. They run over twice the SG&A of anyone else in the automotive industry, and is the big reason they lose money before you even consider other costs like R&D, capital expenditures, interest on debt, taxes, etc.

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    44. Re: And ... if they hadn't? by mlyle · · Score: 1

      This is still consistent with scaling SG&A a couple quarters ahead, and it's something that goes away when you reach ultimate scale.

    45. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by slashdice · · Score: 1

      My local gas station sells aftermarket kits for $5. Look in the in the Bum Wine section of the refrigerator case.

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    46. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by slashdice · · Score: 1

      GM, Ford, Chrysler make their money through car loans [1]. Your local dealer makes their money originating loans and in the maintenance shop. Tesla is the manufacturer and dealer. They don't have profits so normal rules don't apply (yet). Of course, if^W when you need maintenance on your hastily assembled golf cart^W^W^W Tesla, it will be months before parts are available.

      (We used to joke that GM was a healthcare insurance company that financed healthcare for retired workers through car loans.)

      --
      Copyright (c) 1990 - 2014 Dice. All rights reserved. Use of this comment is subject to certain Terms and Conditions.
    47. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by stooo · · Score: 1

      An ICE Truck looks to be a perfectly viable product, but one has to wonder how big the market is. I would guess it will need a (expensive) custom fuel pump if you plan to stop to refuel in a manageable time. :)

      --
      aaaaaaa
    48. Re: And ... if they hadn't? by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      That might be the case. However, they only have a few more quarters of cash on hand (at the current burn rate) without diluting the stock or trying to take on even more debt. The time to turn the corner to profitable was probably last Q3, just before Model 3 units started shipping...

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    49. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Rei · · Score: 2

      It did not make the lines for those 8000 cars in the past year. Don't confuse momentum with acceleration. GM's current infrastructure was accumulated over decades. And it can't just magic its way into suddenly becoming an EV-producing infrastructure. That takes extensive capital investment and many years. The thing that Tesla's been doing, and its "competition" has not been.

      Some of the competition has finally started to pony up the necessary cash to compete. So game on.... several years from now when said investments actually start to pay off. In the meantime...

      --
      Why must all aquatic villains play the organ?
    50. Re: And ... if they hadn't? by c6gunner · · Score: 1

      Revenue: $3.4 billion

      Cost of Revenue: $2.95 billion

      Gross Margin: $456 million

      SG&A: $686.4 million

      Now, take the gross margin and subtract SG&A.

      Why would you subtract SG&A from the gross? It's part of the "cost of revenue" so you've already subtracted it before getting to the gross.

      I mean, sure, since you're hell bent on proving that Tesla is unprofitable, I can see why you would WANT to subtract $686 million twice. You're just masturbating with numbers, though.

    51. Re: And ... if they hadn't? by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      Nope. Look at the financial report. It's a separate line item. Just check the financials. Gross profit of $456MM. Subtract out the R&D ($367MM) and SG&A ($686MM), and you end up with the operating loss (-$597MM).

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    52. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by gravewax · · Score: 1

      As a reminder to anyone reading this who disagrees with anything written above: you have a tool to financially profit off your disagreement with me - short selling

      I disagree with you, but hope I am wrong for my friends sake. regardless you are showing ignorance of shorting to suggest people that disagree with you have a way to make easy money, shorting is not about long term or even medium term prospects for a company, it is what will happen in the short term and is more often based on sentiment and emotion rather than reality. I could lose everything betting TESLA will go bankrupt if I happen to be wrong by a month of when I think the market will realise their mistake even though I was right about the end result (note I don't expect TESLA to go bankrupt, but I do think they are massively overvalued).

    53. Re: And ... if they hadn't? by Rei · · Score: 1

      You do realize that probably half of Slashdot's population posts in the evening, don't you?

      --
      Why must all aquatic villains play the organ?
    54. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Rei · · Score: 2

      Tesla consistently shows increase in unit costs with increased production volume

      Flatly contradicted by the quarterly reports, but hey, this is Slashdot, make up whatever you want. :)

      And there is no "momentum" either

      Yeah, about that...
      About that...

      Tesla has repeatedly failed their promises, for example that of 6000 model 3 cars/weekly by end of June,

      Do you not even read what you link? Literally, the very first sentence:

      SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) is aiming to ramp up production to 6,000 Model 3 cars per week by the end of June to reach its weekly goal of 5,000 and allow for a margin of error

      --
      Why must all aquatic villains play the organ?
    55. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Rei · · Score: 1

      MANY HAVE, and they have made a fortune from this underperforming stock

      On average, they've lost their shirt on this incredibly well performing stock. Can you not even look at a stock price graph? Tesla's price has skyrocketed over the past several years, and has gone through multiple short squeezes in the process.

      --
      Why must all aquatic villains play the organ?
    56. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Rei · · Score: 1

      I've only owned TSLA for a couple months, and I've been talking about Tesla on this site for far longer than that.

      As for options, I may well.

      --
      Why must all aquatic villains play the organ?
    57. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Rei · · Score: 1

      This stock has significantly underperformed the market this year

      The monthly running average from a year ago is well lower than the current monthly running average. And of course you picked endpoints that would try to support your viewpoint. I could just as well pick endpoints from a couple months ago - when I bought in - and compare them to now; it's yielded a tremendous return.

      The long-term picture, however, is the most fair way to compare. And Tesla has done anything but "underperform".

      Shorts are not made "over several years", they are made over days, weeks or months.

      Their average performance is made over several years, even though individual short positions are not that long.

      The poor news announced yesterday has been a bonanza for shorters

      Not coming close to the amount that they've lost in the past several months.

      --
      Why must all aquatic villains play the organ?
    58. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Rei · · Score: 1

      What the heck are you talking about? I bought shares previously because that was the simplest thing for me. Even that is hard enough here (non-US), and I'm stuck paying 1% transaction fees - you all are lucky that you can trade US stocks for flat fees or in some cases free. As for options, I mean exactly what I said: "I may well". I simply haven't looked into them yet, whether it's even possible for me to get them. I've only been in the market for a matter of months.

      --
      Why must all aquatic villains play the organ?
    59. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Rei · · Score: 1

      Not really,

      Yes, really. Margins, both GAAP and non-GAAP, continue rising. SG&A remains steady, while volumes keep climbing.

      And guess what? SG&A will be falling in Q3 due to the layoffs. And Tesla is transitioning the supercharger network from a subsidy to an entity that pays for its own expansion, something that was too small of an effect to be visible in Q1, will be small but meaningful in Q2, and increasingly huge from Q3 onward. Meanwhile, Tesla Energy (Powerwall, Powerpacks, solar roofing products) are all scheduled to undergo massive growth in Q4 (small in Q3, insignificant in Q2). Tesla for example just announced a Powerpack project nearly an order of magnitude larger than the largest they've ever built.

      Yep, I did. Promise: 6000 vehicles a week. Result: 2000 vehicles a week.

      You do realize that even if you're dumb enough to view a target of achieving a 6k/wk rate in order to achieve a goal of a 5k/wk rate by the end of the quarter as meaning "we plan to produce 6k per week every week this quarter", the average person is not that stupid, don't you?

      --
      Why must all aquatic villains play the organ?
    60. Re:And ... if they hadn't? by Rei · · Score: 1

      By the way - since you apparently care so much about me, by all means feel free to do the legwork for me on whether options purchases of US stocks are possible in Iceland, through whom, and what the fee schedule is.

      --
      Why must all aquatic villains play the organ?
  2. Rubbing my hands with glee by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    At the thought of all those day traders with HUGE shorts against Tesla realizing that they're going to get absolutely frickin' REAMED.

    1. Re:Rubbing my hands with glee by dehachel12 · · Score: 2

      yup, stock is already up 6%.

    2. Re:Rubbing my hands with glee by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 1

      Why would you be happy about someone else's misfortune?

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      Your ad here. Ask me how!
    3. Re:Rubbing my hands with glee by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The shorters are the ones who set themselves up to profit from the misfortune of others, and collectively have also been working to bring about that misfortune. If it fails then it fails expensively, which discourages people from that practice thereby reducing the amount of misfortune in the world.

    4. Re: Rubbing my hands with glee by aleck7 · · Score: 1

      Theyâ(TM)re are not day traders, but short-sellers.

    5. Re:Rubbing my hands with glee by Barsteward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      In this case, yes. Shorters (or anyone for that matter) who spread lies and misinformation to game the market deserve all the shit they get when it goes badly

      --
      "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
    6. Re:Rubbing my hands with glee by AbRASiON · · Score: 1, Flamebait

      I've seen a plethora of articles outlining why Tesla has legitimate financial management issues. These shorters aren't all about "fuck Tesla" it might simply be "this seems like a profitable trade, this company should be crashing, let's see if I can predict when"

      Some of them, it's emotionless, no politics, it's just how it is.

      I dunno if they are managed bad, but boy have I seen quite a few articles, including charts.

      I'm skeptical they achieved 7000 or skeptical they can HOLD 7000, perhaps they did do it? Dunno.

    7. Re:Rubbing my hands with glee by Wrath0fb0b · · Score: 1

      The shorters are the ones who set themselves up to profit from the misfortune of others, and collectively have also been working to bring about that misfortune. If it fails then it fails expensively, which discourages people from that practice thereby reducing the amount of misfortune in the world.

      This is such a misunderstanding I don't even know where to begin. Taking a bet against a company is not "profiting from their misfortune", it's asserting that they scammed/tricked/fooled their way into having a much higher valuation than is properly deserved. We want folks to take those short positions as a guard against bubbles and irrational optimism.

      As far as "working to bring about that misfortunate", that is true and lamentable. But it's hardly unique to those with short positions. "Pump and dump" is exactly the same scam except on the long position side. Both are unethical and illegal, and it's got nothing to do with whether you are trying to manipulate upwards or downwards.

      Also, FWIW, I don't believe TSLA is overhyped, I think they are valued about right. I wouldn't short 'em, but I don't begrudge those that do.

    8. Re:Rubbing my hands with glee by Solandri · · Score: 1

      You do realize that if the shorters are correct and Tesla stock (eventually) comes back down to earth, then the stock price for Tesla was overvalued because of lies and misinformation spread by Tesla fans, right?

    9. Re: Rubbing my hands with glee by dev-in-seattle · · Score: 1

      So you must be a shorter then?

    10. Re: Rubbing my hands with glee by dev-in-seattle · · Score: 1

      I am sure they pushed it to the limitlast week but compare q1 vs q2 to see the general direction. After q1 had a big final week everyone said there was no way they'd be able to keep that last week rate going but they did.

    11. Re:Rubbing my hands with glee by aquacrayfish · · Score: 1

      Please state your definition of 'collapse'. It's up over 30 points in the last month, including this morning's 10 point drop.

    12. Re: Rubbing my hands with glee by Wrath0fb0b · · Score: 1

      Nope, I'm mostly long, including on TSLA since the low double digits.

      But please continue to make assumptions about the investment positions of internet strangers, it's, uhh, endearing?

    13. Re: Rubbing my hands with glee by dev-in-seattle · · Score: 1

      I do my best.

    14. Re:Rubbing my hands with glee by Julz · · Score: 1

      Likewise. Several of my friends had joined these doomsayers and were berating me for the mere mention of electric vehicles and Tesla being ahead of the game. One of them dumped his shares based on the stories about failure which hadn't even occurred yet.

      --
      When shit hits the fan get some of these https://youtu.be/pY-GncsZ-UE
    15. Re:Rubbing my hands with glee by AbRASiON · · Score: 1

      Less than a few hours after making this post an analyst had already claimed the figure was unsustainable.

    16. Re:Rubbing my hands with glee by jeremyp · · Score: 1

      As lots of other people have said, on any rational evaluation, the stock is overpriced. The short sellers are acting to correct an anomaly in the market. This is generally a good thing. Note that short sellers are not betting that the company will fail only that the stock price will go down.

      The other thing to note is that, generally, the stock price of a company is nearly irrelevant as far as day to day operations are concerned. The stock price will not affect Tesla's short term ability to raise Model 3 production, so chill out about the short sellers.

      Where a low stock price does have an effect is in terms of investment for the future. For example, Tesla might want to raise capital by selling more stock or they might want to use the stock as collateral on a loan. It also might affect their ability to recruit and retain good staff if stock options are part of the remuneration package.

      I don't know why the Tesla fanboys are so obsessed with the short sellers (unless they own Tesla shares). Tesla is overpriced so of course there are short sellers. But it doesn't matter because the fanboys are sure that Tesla is financially sound, right?

      --
      All I want is a secure system where it's easy to do anything I want. Is that too much to ask ~~ Randall Munroe
    17. Re:Rubbing my hands with glee by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      Collapse = down 12% in the last 12 months in a strongly up market. It dropped another 25 points today, and will continue to go down.

    18. Re:Rubbing my hands with glee by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      You should have listened to your friends. Tesla isn't even the biggest EV maker.

    19. Re:Rubbing my hands with glee by djinn6 · · Score: 1

      And 2 days later, it's down 10%.

      All that tells me is TSLA has high volatility.

  3. I hope this Elon Musk guy ... by Qbertino · · Score: 5, Interesting

    ... and his crew succeed a million times over and become filthy rich while doing it. The penance with which Musk pursues his visions is inspiring and he serves as a very neat role model.

    Two thumbs up for scaring the living sh*t out of the leading German car industry which, IMHO, has become way to complacent with its success.
    And thanks for paving the way into carbon neutral traffic and land-transport.

    My 2 eurocents.

    --
    We suffer more in our imagination than in reality. - Seneca
    1. Re:I hope this Elon Musk guy ... by mapkinase · · Score: 1

      Well putt, Qbertino. I like that he goes beyond stupid political posturing of wide majority of techno-billionaires and has a constructive approach to politics.

      --
      I do not believe in karma. "Funny"=-6. Do good and forbid evil. Yours, Oft-Offtopic Flamebaiting Troll.
    2. Re:I hope this Elon Musk guy ... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      " The penance with which Musk pursues his visions"
      Penance? That word does not mean what you think it means

    3. Re:I hope this Elon Musk guy ... by vrassoc · · Score: 1

      tenacity?

    4. Re:I hope this Elon Musk guy ... by codeButcher · · Score: 1

      Panache (probably)

      --
      Free, as in your money being freed from the confines of your account.
    5. Re:I hope this Elon Musk guy ... by Peter+P+Peters · · Score: 1

      Penis.
      The penis with which Musk pursues his visions...

  4. Beating a deadline late by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    "Beating a self-imposed deadline, the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Musk, two workers at the factory told Reuters on Sunday."

    Um, if the final car rolled off the line several hours AFTER the midnight deadline, then they didn't actually beat it.

    1. Re:Beating a deadline late by gerald.edward.butler · · Score: 5, Informative

      If the production shift started Saturday before midnight, then, that shift's production counts towards that week. That is fairly standard practice.

  5. Well done - but not sure I’d buy one... by Bearhouse · · Score: 1

    With the pressure they’re under they must be slapping them together - probably better to wait a while

    1. Re:Well done - but not sure I’d buy one... by Daemonik · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Makes me think of that 80's movie Gung Ho where they rushed production to keep from being closed and cars were rolling off the line missing tires...

      Plus with Tesla's penchant to make production changes on the fly, and the questionable build quality of the Model 3's they've already produced.. yeah, pass.

    2. Re:Well done - but not sure I’d buy one... by DrXym · · Score: 1

      Exactly. Wait for their production to stabilize rather than meet some arbitrary goal.

    3. Re:Well done - but not sure I’d buy one... by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1

      To be fair they seem to have improved build quality a lot. There are still quite a few Model X and S with issues but the M3 seems to have been better designed for manufacturing.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    4. Re:Well done - but not sure I’d buy one... by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Plus with Tesla's penchant to make production changes on the fly, and the questionable build quality of the Model 3's they've already produced.. yeah, pass.

      On one hand, building cars more quickly can lead to quality issues. But on the other hand, building more cars can lead to solving quality issues, because you adjust the process as you go along.

      If I were to buy one of these cars, I'd want one of the later ones.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    5. Re:Well done - but not sure I’d buy one... by PeeAitchPee · · Score: 1

      If they'd missed the deadline, I could see Musk making his engineers stand outside screaming in Japanese at the passing crowd "these are ribbons of SHAME!"

    6. Re:Well done - but not sure I’d buy one... by Daemonik · · Score: 1

      Linking to some random guy ranting for half an hour about a windscreen he apparently cracked himself with a hammer, claim "questionable build quality" -> "+5 interesting". I'd call that "pretty damned overrated" myself... unless we can have a "fraudulent" mod, in which case I'd agree with the +5

      Yeah, sure.. Munro & Associates with 30 years of experience deconstructing production chains to find efficiencies, improve quality and lower build costs who does work for every manufacturing industry in the world is just "some random guy".. no wonder you posted as an AC.

    7. Re:Well done - but not sure I’d buy one... by kcwebmonkey · · Score: 1

      Makes me think of that 80's movie Gung Ho where they rushed production to keep from being closed and cars were rolling off the line missing tires...

      Plus with Tesla's penchant to make production changes on the fly, and the questionable build quality of the Model 3's they've already produced.. yeah, pass.

      Thanks for this! I've been trying to remember the name of that movie for years! I tried googling what I could remember about the movie but could never find it.

    8. Re:Well done - but not sure I’d buy one... by Train0987 · · Score: 1

      It's more analogous to the Delorean story.

    9. Re:Well done - but not sure I’d buy one... by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      with 30 years of experience deconstructing production chains to find efficiencies, improve quality and lower build costs

      So professionals in the art of ripping some design decisions to shreds. Interestingly the only things he mentioned in his video even remotely relevant to users he seems to dislike from personal preference (door to heavy, not liking the design of the handle, pulling a hidden lever rather than the button to open the car). If that is all he's got to complain about that doesn't sound like much of a turn-off.

      Incidentally every other person whose ripped into the model 3 for things they don't like the end conclusion is almost universally to buy given how awesome it is to drive making little details in a budget EV quite forgivable.

    10. Re:Well done - but not sure I’d buy one... by AmiMoJo · · Score: 1

      What specifically was wrong with it?

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    11. Re:Well done - but not sure I’d buy one... by Train0987 · · Score: 1

      Inconsistent panel gaps all around the car, inconsistent paint, orange peel, wheel covers fit loosely (to the point of rattling), console below the screen would not close properly, trunk would not close properly, steering wheel off-center, etc. I wouldn't have accepted delivery but the owner just had to take it show off to everyone.

    12. Re:Well done - but not sure I’d buy one... by Socguy · · Score: 1

      When the bulk of the assembly is done by robot it doesn't matter how fast they work, you get an identical product each time. The trick is going to be ensuring that each robot has enough feedstock to work at full speed at all times and to choreograph their production in the line so that their product is not overloading or underloading the next step. The slowest part of the line dictates the speed of the entire line. Having multiple lines is better in some ways as well. That means that sometimes you can upgrade the lines independent of one and other and not have to totally shut down production.

    13. Re:Well done - but not sure I’d buy one... by Daemonik · · Score: 1

      Yeah no. They don't "rip design decisions to shreds". They analyze a product and help the manufacturer reduce their costs and build a better product. Or depending on who's paying them they help them build something better than their competition. He doesn't pick on Tesla's choices out of personal dislike, they make a comprehensive book on all the design decisions, their costs, their benefits and sell them. If he said the trunk was something he hasn't seen since the 90's it's because everyone else already found a better way to do it.

      I also like how you slipped and called Tesla's customers "users". Show's your and Tesla's software background and how everyone else is a st00pid user to you. Well you're wrong. Most of us who aren't in Musk's cult do feel that things like fit and finish are important in a $50,000 car. So are safety features and the feeling that the engineers did their best to ensure you survive a crash.

      Munro did another program talking about the Model 3's where he pointed out other design decisions by Tesla that just make no sense. Small panels welded inside the body for no purpose that just slows down manufacturing. Insulation material that was installed backwards, showing the lack of training Tesla's workers have, etc. He also really gushed over the battery and the electronics and enjoyed how the car drove, although it has wind noise which is something you only see on cheap cars anymore.

      The M3 isn't worth $50k, it isn't worth $35k. It's questionable if Tesla is even going to make a profit off them at $50k which means it's only a matter of time before they start reaaaaly dropping in quality.

    14. Re:Well done - but not sure I’d buy one... by thegarbz · · Score: 1

      They don't "rip design decisions to shreds". They analyze a product and help the manufacturer reduce their costs and build a better product.

      You must be in marketing.

      Show's your and Tesla's software background

      You're reading into stuff that isn't there. I don't have a software background. Never have, hopefully never will. I'm a hardware guy who plays with very big metal toys (much bigger than cars).

      Well you're wrong. Most of us who aren't in Musk's cult do feel that things like fit and finish are important in a $50,000 car.

      I can tell by all the people not ordering them. And all the reviews that I've read. Oh wait no I meant ... wait I had something about this ... I'll just stick with "Well YOU'RE WRONG!"

      Munro did another program talking about the Model 3's where he pointed out other design decisions by Tesla that just make no sense.

      Cool story, still selling like hot cakes, still drives like a bat outta hell. No one cares.

      The M3 isn't worth $50k, it isn't worth $35k.

      And yet people pay it. Basic economics says you're wrong. Again. There's a common trend here.

      It's questionable if Tesla is even going to make a profit off them at $50k which means it's only a matter of time before they start reaaaaly dropping in quality.

      Actually there's nothing questionable about it. It's a purely economics game that has been analysed to death. But I am sure you're right random person on the internet (who somehow posts a lot of wrong stuff) and you know better than all those analysts.

      Keep it up!

  6. Re:Rush by phayes · · Score: 1

    Those who predicted that Tesla would not be able to reach their goals and shorted them need to find something to salve their injured pride/pocketbook. Apparently it's FUDing the quality of the cars.

    --
    Democracy is a sheep and two wolves deciding what to have for lunch. Freedom is a well armed sheep contesting the issue
  7. Re:hmmm by dehachel12 · · Score: 2

    sure. And why wouldn't they be able to put in those extra shifts all the time?

  8. Re:hmmm by Daemonik · · Score: 2, Informative

    You can't run a line 24/7/365. There's routine maintenance, cleaning and various other reasons that production equipment needs to shut down for a period of time.

  9. Re:Rush by h33t+l4x0r · · Score: 1

    Oooh, that factory said they could make x units a week and they're doing it. There's no way that could be a good thing! Do you even hear yourself?

  10. Musk is a braggard and underachiever by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    However, nobody else brags near his level and where he underachieves, nobody else goes to start with. Basically, he is a visionary putting his money, well other people's money mostly, where his mouth is. Well, his mouth is way ahead but then nobody else keeps up with it either.

    So yes, visionary and game changer. Yes, his vision tends to be beyond even his game but that's not all that unusual. What is unusual is the degree to which he eventually delivers. Which makes Tesla stock really badly shortsold. Which leads to a lot of frantically bad press and double standards.

    So yes, a braggard and underachiever. Don't expect to hear much else from media run (or at least astroturfed on their dime) by rich people who have made a fortune by betting against people thinking they could make it against their will.

    1. Re:Musk is a braggard and underachiever by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      he does consistently meet his targets
      he is just consistently to optimistic in his predictions of when he'll meet those targets

    2. Re: Musk is a braggard and underachiever by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      It does not matter how many commitments you keep so long as the government and other people are willing to hand you money.

  11. Re:Rush by DrXym · · Score: 1

    No more than there have already been.

  12. Re:Trump dies in Federal Prison either way a trait by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Perhaps, but spamming it here, like the head cheetos himself does on Twitter, does not help.

    Sure it does help - it helps Trump.

    The constant spamming of fantasy bullshit just makes Trump look less unreasonable.

    In fact, one wonders if the constant spamming is actually paid for by Trump or Trump supporters.

  13. Re:hmmm by Rei · · Score: 5, Informative

    sounds like they have done the same thing as last quarter, realised they could not meet the number so put on a heap of extra shifts in the final week so they could get it across the line for the numbers.

    Meanwhile, in the real world, despite shorts insisting that last quarter's weekly numbers (2k) would be an unsustainable burst rate, they maintained it for weeks, all the way up to the next scheduled downtime. Then they got back up to 3,5k and maintained that until the next set of upgrades. Now they're at 5k. But if you really think the 5k is a burst, by all means short that.

    --
    Why must all aquatic villains play the organ?
  14. Re:QC by jfdavis668 · · Score: 1

    Why, today they will make this weeks number 1, right after last weeks #7000.

  15. It's all about the cash flow by sjbe · · Score: 1

    If you only look at the quarter average, they won't be making anywhere near 5000 a week, especially given they've had several shutdowns to retool.

    That doesn't really matter looking forward. The question is whether they can get to the necessary production rate fast enough to get the cash flowing and without blowing up quality in the process. Sure it would be nice if they did 5000 on average for the previous quarter but it's no secret that they weren't going to do that. The question is whether they can continue to meet production milestones next quarter and whether those will be sufficient to get the cash flow going fast enough to keep the company afloat.

    Their main problem will still be cash flow, since they're not making enough to cover their expenses. If the "pay another $2500 to order now" thing doesn't pan out, they'll need even more high-interest loans, or worst case, another round of stock offerings.

    Yes cash flow is THE big question. Elon likes to push the limits so it will be interesting to watch Tesla over the next 6-12 months.

    1. Re: It's all about the cash flow by dev-in-seattle · · Score: 1

      They aren't making the cheaper versions yet, 5k * 50k is 250 million of cash flow. I think they will be doing okay.

  16. And you would enthusiastically buy one of the cars by Latent+Heat · · Score: 1

    that was produced in this all-hands-on-deck sprint of factory operation?

  17. Tesla fanboys by rojash · · Score: 1

    Tesla fanboys dont realize Elon would roll out the cars even if they are very buggy, just to meet a deadline.

  18. Re: Ah no. The shorts are fine. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Pissed about what? The stock is triple what it was four years ago.

  19. Deadlines by sjbe · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Corporate goals/deadlines are generally always 'self imposed'. Seems folks think Tesla deserves some type of credit for this?

    Not where there are big interest payments coming due in the near future.

    It is the mark of a well run company to be able to accurately predict performance and then to hit those goals on schedule.

    That's one way to measure it but the most important measure is their ability to consistently develop and maintain substantial free cash flow. Nobody really cares if a company meets artificial expectations if they consistently generate substantial profits. Companies generally can only "predict" performance accurately by fudging the numbers anyway. If you see a company that consistently "beats" wall street expectations by just a little every quarter, you can be dead certain there is some financial engineering going on. (I'm an accountant so I should know) In reality businesses are rarely so predictable so some amount of variation should be expected. You just don't want any huge negative surprises but a little up and down is generally fine unless you are some wall street asshat who only cares about the current quarter.

    Musk isn't very good at defining targets that can be hit on schedule and/or hitting them on schedule. That doesn't mean he will fail, but it is generally a bad sign.

    For most companies I would regard this as a negative but it's no secret that Musk sets very hard to achieve "deadlines" all the time so I think that is baked into the stock price. In a way it's kind of genius in that he acts a little irrational so it makes it harder for analysts to hold him to a standard of performance. He's also taking a page from the Amazon playbook in not really giving a shit about short term results and apologetically so.

    1. Re:Deadlines by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

      Amazon did care about short term results, and generally hit or exceeded their short term targets.

    2. Re: Deadlines by dev-in-seattle · · Score: 1

      In my experience working for big companies including Microsoft and Google, they often don't finish their large projects on time. Commonly they're promising them at a different date externally. But you set an aggressive date in part to organize your team around that. And they are doing just fine - they don't even build material things like cars, it was just a question of organizing ourselves. At Google if you met all your quarterly objectives they'd say you weren't being aggressive enough in your goals.

  20. Re:And you would enthusiastically buy one of the c by apoc.famine · · Score: 1

    Can you provide any evidence for this?

    I ask, because a) they shut down twice this month to retool and reconfigure assembly lines, and b) the production rate has steadily risen. It's not like they doubled production for a week out of the blue.

    An "all-hands-on-deck sprint" sounds like the standard bullshit that the people in short positions have chronically been pushing over the last year or so. Are you one of those people, or do you have evidence to back up your claim?

    --
    Velociraptor = Distiraptor / Timeraptor
  21. #factorygated by fozzy1015 · · Score: 5, Informative

    Read what Elon actually said. 5000 Model 3s were 'factory gated', not produced. That means, according to Elon himself, a chunk of that number were already built at the beginning of the last week of June. Knowing this week was coming up, that chunk could be a significant portion. They are counted in the final tally even though in the last week Tesla may have done as little as move them from one lot to another. So Tesla didn't even pull off a true 5K burst week. This is why sustained production numbers are the only accurate ones. Those numbers are what Moody's pays attention to.

    1. Re:#factorygated by apoc.famine · · Score: 2

      Sure, but one key point that a lot of people are missing is that he's playing a numbers game to keep production numbers down as well as a numbers game to keep them up. Now that they're out of Q2 he doesn't have to keep the production numbers down to retain the tax incentive anymore.

      It had to expire at some point, because it's based on the total number of cars sold, but the pressure was to avoid doing hitting that mark at the end of a quarter which would trigger the incentive to laps starting the next quarter. Now they're poised to hit that number early this quarter, but all of the cars sold will have the incentive until Q4 starts. So the pressure now is to crank out as many cars as possible, to meet the Q3 demand which will probably lower in Q4 due to the lack of incentive.

      Where you're curious to see if they can even make 5k/week, I'm curious to see how much they've been holding back. My guess is that it's quite a lot, and I wouldn't be surprised to see 7k/week in Model 3s by August.

      --
      Velociraptor = Distiraptor / Timeraptor
    2. Re:#factorygated by fozzy1015 · · Score: 1

      Now that they're out of Q2 he doesn't have to keep the production numbers down to retain the tax incentive anymore.

      I believe you're referring to the 200K FIT credit expiration. That applies to total US deliveries per manufacturer and has nothing to do with production. On that topic, some predict it was already exceeded before Q3(though only Tesla knows for sure at this point) https://insideevs.com/why-we-b...

    3. Re: #factorygated by dev-in-seattle · · Score: 1

      Compare q1 to q2 they look fine with a sustained improvement.

  22. Already sold (for now) by sjbe · · Score: 2

    If I had stock in Tesla (or any car company) I would rather want to know how many cars they sell, not how many they produce.

    Every car they produce at the moment is effectively already sold so at least for now it's the same number. Once they get through the initial bolus of orders then it will be more interesting. Of related interest Tesla doesn't maintain large stocks of inventory like the traditional automakers (they are basically building to order), nor do they account for when a sale occurs in precisely the same way either.

  23. Three shifts by sjbe · · Score: 1

    You can't run a line 24/7/365. There's routine maintenance, cleaning and various other reasons that production equipment needs to shut down for a period of time.

    Nobody expects them to. But it isn't unheard of to run assembly plants on three shifts either. Maintenance time and equipment upgrades are scheduled in advance whenever possible - often weekends or between shifts. I've seen this handled a variety of ways depending on the particular equipment needs. It's challenging but not a new problem or an unsolved one.

  24. Re: hmmm by dehachel12 · · Score: 1

    >when they originally planned to do it with one line,
    they did ?

  25. "Underachiever"? by sjbe · · Score: 2

    However, nobody else brags near his level and where he underachieves, nobody else goes to start with.

    "Underachieve"? Seriously? Yes he sets unrealistic self imposed deadlines and misses a fair number of them but anyone calling Musk an underachiever is delusional. The guy has started PayPal, SpaceX, Tesla, SolarCity, and The Boring Company and he actively manages the last four. He has completely reshaped the space launch business and it looks likely he will do the same to the auto business. If that's underachieving then give me some of that.

    Frankly if you had achieved 10% of what he has you'd be bragging about it too. And bragging isn't really a problem if you can actually back it up and so far he mostly has.

    1. Re:"Underachiever"? by Train0987 · · Score: 1

      The difference is he hired experts to run SpaceX and the Boring Company. He's trying to run Tesla himself with absolutely zero experience in auto manufacturing. He was in the right place at the right time to make his fortune with Paypal. The SolarCity deal is turning out to be a bit of self-sealing that could possibly get him in a lot of trouble with regulators and/or the DOJ.

  26. Re:Warning! by jfdavis668 · · Score: 1

    I was in a traffic jam caused by a burning car this weekend. It was gasoline powered, not electric, but it was a pain. They should ban that gasoline stuff.

  27. Long term thinking by sjbe · · Score: 1

    Amazon did care about short term results, and generally hit or exceeded their short term targets.

    That is completely not true. Here is every letter to shareholders from Jeff Bezos since 1997. Read the letter from 1997 and then you'll understand. Amazon hasn't given a shit about short term financial targets since their inception.

    1. Re:Long term thinking by Mr+D+from+63 · · Score: 1

      There is a difference between shareholders being concerned with what they percieve as inadequate profitability targets, versus not hitting targets. Amazon's early targets were not profitability, they werer growth and revenue based, and they generally hit those targets. Bezos was pretty clear on what to expect, those letters you linked to are evidence of such.

  28. Re:And you would enthusiastically buy one of the c by Corbets · · Score: 1

    that was produced in this all-hands-on-deck sprint of factory operation?

    I place my order 3 days ago, so while I can’t answer for the GP, yes, I would.

  29. Short selling is fine by sjbe · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The shorters are the ones who set themselves up to profit from the misfortune of others, and collectively have also been working to bring about that misfortune.

    When a stock is as irrationally over priced as Tesla there is nothing wrong with betting that it will fall back toward sanity. Honestly we need people who are willing to bet with their own money when something seems wrong. Tesla is doing some really interesting things but there is no rational basis for them to have a market cap larger than Ford. I honestly am kind of a fan of Tesla but I'm also a fan of financial sanity.

    Furthermore when you are in a mature market like automobiles ANY investment is de-facto a bet on the misfortune of others. If you buy stock in Ford you are effectively hoping for misfortune for Toyota or GM. It's near as makes no difference a zero sum game. If you buy stock in Tesla you are hoping for misfortune for their competitors. That's fine but it's not really much different than shorting TSLA directly.

    If it fails then it fails expensively, which discourages people from that practice thereby reducing the amount of misfortune in the world.

    They are taking a risk and they are well aware of that fact but I think their thesis is correct. Tesla's current stock price cannot be justified with any rational analysis of likely future free cash flows. A $60 billion market cap on a company with $11 billion in revenue that has never made an operational profit? That's bananas. The only real question is when Tesla's stock price will come back to Earth. Might take a while but sooner or later it has to happen.

    1. Re:Short selling is fine by cheesybagel · · Score: 2

      Ford, a company that killed all their car models, to focus on constructing trucks and SUVs exclusively, at a time when oil prices are going up? If anything I think they are over valued.

    2. Re:Short selling is fine by apoc.famine · · Score: 1

      When a stock is as irrationally over priced as Tesla...

      And you claim that with what authority?

      I'm not entirely disagreeing, but I'm not willing to make the claim that it's "irrationally over priced", because Tesla is in a position that few companies have ever been in. As they ramp up their volume, they're quite possibly going to drive one or more established auto makers out of business.

      Look at Ford. They're discontinuing all of their auto lines in the US except their trucks, the Focus hatchback, and the Mustang. All of the rest, gone. The rest of the Focus models gone, along with the lines for Fusion,Taurus, CMax, Fiesta, which are joining the Crown Vic and Thunderbird in the dust heap of history. That means that Ford isn't competing with Tesla on electric vehicles. Either they know they can't compete, or they've entirely misread the market for electric vehicles.

      Tesla has already sold pretty much all of the vehicles it will produce this year, and maybe next year, without sales people, showrooms or a national advertising campaign. Think about that for a moment. They sell a software upgrade which costs them $0 for $5k in pure profit. Their margins are higher than any other car maker. And they don't require three dealerships in any medium sized city, and one in every moderate sized town to do it.

      Yes, compared to the established car companies, Tesla's valuation looks insane. But I'm not really sure you can compare them to those dinosaurs. You make the claim that it's "irrationally over priced", but looking at who is holding Tesla stock, my guess is you're the one who doesn't understand the market.

      --
      Velociraptor = Distiraptor / Timeraptor
    3. Re:Short selling is fine by sjbe · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Ford, a company that killed all their car models, to focus on constructing trucks and SUVs exclusively, at a time when oil prices are going up? If anything I think they are over valued.

      Several problems with your analysis.
      1) I think you hugely underestimate the demand for trucks, particularly in the US
      2) Ford has pretty much never made a profit on passenger cars in the last 30 years.
      3) There is nothing preventing them from electrifying their trucks to hybrids or EVs and in fact Ford is doing just that.
      4) Ford is comparably priced to comparable companies with comparable product portfolios. They also posted a profit of $8.4 billion last year. That sort of profit easily justifies a market cap of $40 billion.

    4. Re:Short selling is fine by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Tesla is doing some really interesting things but there is no rational basis for them to have a market cap larger than Ford.

      Ford's valuation is based on future earnings potential. Investors don't believe that they will manage to make the turn necessary to stay on track. Whether that's accurate or not, Tesla can change direction vastly more rapidly than can FoMoCo.

      If you buy stock in Tesla you are hoping for misfortune for their competitors.

      Not necessarily. You could be hoping that one of their competitors buys them.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    5. Re:Short selling is fine by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      its easy to take apart someone's brief comments. Take yours for example:

      #1 ignores the obvious fact that the US is not the majority of the world's market. Sorry to break it to you.

      #2 is just an indictment of Ford's economical viability. Or did you somehow mean to say that a car company that cannot manufacture cars economically is managed soundly? Getting out of passenger vehicles because they cannot compete sounds like good management -- for a company that doesn't know how to manufacture.

      #3 maybe electric makes sense in short range vehicles that can use high torque. Except that that is not how they are used (at least in the US which is apparently the only market you think that matters). Using SUV/truck for personal transportation is always going to be less energy efficient than using a car -- acceptance of a 100km range truck is unlikely to be better than a 200km range car.

      #4 is just hand wavy numbers and no justification other than "I said so". Sorry, I don't accept your appeal to authority.

    6. Re:Short selling is fine by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 1

      Look at Ford. They're discontinuing all of their auto lines in the US except their trucks

      And why shouldn't they. People love their trucks. They sold more F-150s last month than Tesla will sell vehicles all year (assuming they were making 5k model 3's a month since January 1). And that's across all Tesla models.

      ]Tesla's] margins are higher than any other car maker.

      Ford makes $13,000 per F-150. That's more than those engineers in Germany said Tesla may approach once they're making 10k/model 3's a week. (And that number includes getting the batteries from panasonic at raw materials cost)

      Based just on the F-150 and the entire line of Tesla, I've gotta say it looks like the entire Tesla line is worth what the F-150 is. And while the F-150 is subject to oil price shocks, the number of rare metals used makes the Tesla line pretty subject shocks too. For instance in Cobalt.

      --
      Your ad here. Ask me how!
    7. Re:Short selling is fine by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 1

      You could be hoping that one of their competitors buys them.

      When you value a company higher than it's competitors, acquisition is no longer an exit strategy.

      --
      Your ad here. Ask me how!
    8. Re:Short selling is fine by lgw · · Score: 1

      Let's say TSLA takes over all of Ford's business. That's fairly optimistic. It also leaves them overpriced at their current market cap, which is larger than Fords. Ford is not GM - it has lots of automation and isn't saddled with enormous union obligations.

      That has nothing to do with TSLA stock price, of course. Stocks are priced 80% on fashion, 20% on value. If TSLA succeeds this year it will become even more fashionable, and thus even more overpriced. Reality rarely intrudes on stock prices.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    9. Re:Short selling is fine by grahamsz · · Score: 1

      I think that while cars are a traditional market, energy storage is definitely not and it's hardly surprising that it'd be priced more like a startup.

      They've deployed over a GWh of energy storage, and it sounds like they've got a single deal in the works with california that will be bigger than everything they've done so far (and i find it hard to believe that's the only big deal they are lining up). That's a huge space, and if they continue to beat the industry for the amount of cobalt in their batteries then they'll be really competitive in a fast growing space.

    10. Re: Short selling is fine by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      And the price on those shares will drop and the market cap will become rational about 3 weeks after all the short sellers are broken. There are too many short Sellers and they are supporting the market.
      Tesla stock is unlikely to be able to correct until most of the short sellers are flushed.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    11. Re:Short selling is fine by jeremyp · · Score: 1

      They are not killing all their car models. Ford operates globally and they are only killing their car range in the USA.

      --
      All I want is a secure system where it's easy to do anything I want. Is that too much to ask ~~ Randall Munroe
    12. Re:Short selling is fine by grahamsz · · Score: 1

      Yes, but it's also insignificant considering the projected needs of energy storage over the next few decades. If Tesla becomes the provider of choice in a market that could be worth tens of billions annually in a few years time then that's a pretty large revenue stream.

    13. Re: Short selling is fine by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Software isn't free.

      The incremental cost is low but it may have cost millions of dollars,to develop the software. And it may cost Millions more to maintain the staff to support that software.

      I agree that short sellers are doing everything they can because they are getting desperate.

      And I agree Tesla has a product that people really desire.

      And finally I'll agree that Tesla is ramping up production rapidly. It appears to have strong, highly intelligent management and motivated Workforce.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
  30. Re:Trump dies in Federal Prison either way a trait by Sarten-X · · Score: 1

    There has actually been a good amount of research on this, by sources that I am admittedly far too lazy to find again on this lovely Monday morning.

    Trump's apparent supporters include a large army of bot and sockpuppet accounts (spread through Twitter and Facebook, with notably similar trends on 4chan that are more difficult to track) that become active around 8-9AM every morning, post throughout the day, and stop activity at around 5PM. Their language reflects an education through high school, but they tend not to use allegory or references to pop culture (except for memes of their own creation), and very low engagement with credible experts on any given subject. They also show a curious lack of activity on certain holidays.

    These patterns are also shown by an army of accounts attacking Trump. Same working hours, same linguistic style, and the same engagement patterns, with the only difference really being which names are being dog-whistled. Yes, it certainly appears there's somebody with a professional organization aimed primarily at creating controversy and unrest.

    Now, the fun part of the analysis is that the pattern of work hours and holidays don't align with American time zones or American holidays. Instead, they mostly align with the work patterns in Moscow.

    --
    You do not have a moral or legal right to do absolutely anything you want.
  31. Re:hmmm by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

    Because people get sick, take vacation, and leave the company?

    --
    Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
  32. Re:I wonder how arbirtary the goal is? by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1
    FTFA:

    "Beating a self-imposed deadline, the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Musk, two workers at the factory told Reuters on Sunday."

    They didn't meet the goal.

    --
    Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
  33. Re:hmmm by vtcodger · · Score: 1

    I'm guessing, but I think the easiest way to meet a target once would be to divert some production in previous weeks as "requiring rework". Come the week you want to meet target, you send some folks out to the parking lot where the "rework" vehicles are stashed to install light bulbs, trim strips, or whatever else they are missing.

    Not saying Tesla did that. Just that it or something similar could be done.

    It seems sort of like a software capability demo. You can demo just about anything if you have enough time to set up the demo. The worse the product, the more time you need to spend setting up the demo.

    --
    You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
  34. Irrational exuberance all over again by sjbe · · Score: 4, Insightful

    And you claim that with what authority?

    Simple logic. Ford made $8 billion in PROFIT last year on $156 billion in revenue and has a market cap of $40 billion or so. Tesla lost $2 billion on $11 billion in revenue and has a market cap of $60 billion? Further Tesla has shown no credible path whereby they will generate profits superior to Ford's in the future. If you think that makes any kind of sense you are out of your mind. There is no rational scenario you can propose whereby Tesla is going to generate enough profit to justify that market cap in less than 15 years (and that's being generous) even with ludicrously optimistic assumptions.

    I'm not entirely disagreeing, but I'm not willing to make the claim that it's "irrationally over priced", because Tesla is in a position that few companies have ever been in.

    Evidently you do not recall the dotcom era around 1998-2000. Irrationally overpriced companies are nothing even remotely new and Tesla is not covering any new ground there. Seriously, show me any credible story whereby Tesla generates enough profits to justify their current market cap in less than 15 years. At the end of the day stock prices and market caps are all about profits (including expected profits), otherwise investors eventually have to look elsewhere to make money. If I invest $1000 in Tesla but have to wait 15 years to recover my money while playing a game of who is the greater fool then I'm an idiot.

    Tesla has already sold pretty much all of the vehicles it will produce this year, and maybe next year, without sales people, showrooms or a national advertising campaign.

    Impressive but let me know how you think they are going to manage that trick when they sell as many vehicles as Ford does. It's easy to sell out when you cannot produce all that much to begin with. 5000 vehicles a week? Ford makes and sells about 17,000 F-150s each week just on that model alone and they aren't scrambling to do it either. And more importantly they are making huge profits along the way.

    Yes, compared to the established car companies, Tesla's valuation looks insane.

    Compared to pretty much ANY company Tesla's valuation IS insane.

    1. Re:Irrational exuberance all over again by apoc.famine · · Score: 1

      And you claim that with what authority?

      Simple logic. Ford made $8 billion in PROFIT last year on $156 billion in revenue and has a market cap of $40 billion or so. Tesla lost $2 billion on $11 billion in revenue and has a market cap of $60 billion?

      That's hilarious logic right there. You don't even understand that you're not comparing the same thing, do you?

      Further Tesla has shown no credible path whereby they will generate profits superior to Ford's in the future.

      So, what you're saying is that you don't know anything about Tesla. I get it.

      With this level of expertise, I can't imagine why you're not the next Warren Buffet.

      --
      Velociraptor = Distiraptor / Timeraptor
    2. Re:Irrational exuberance all over again by Whorhay · · Score: 1

      The stock valuation is definitely high because of speculation, but it's long term not short. If they can actually maintain sales and production of 5000 Model 3's a week that will generate profits around a couple billion a year, working from the assumption that their gross profit margin is only 20%. If production and sales go higher and stay there the margins will be better, and could be better than we estimate anyways. Speculation in Tesla is driven by the fact that every day it seems to be coming closer to realistically eating a huge share of the automotive market.

    3. Re:Irrational exuberance all over again by Peter+P+Peters · · Score: 1

      That's hilarious logic right there. You don't even understand that you're not comparing the same thing, do you?

      What's hilarious is that you had the opportunity to correct the logic but chose not to for some reason.
      As an independent reader, the other guy's logic makes more sense than yours....

    4. Re:Irrational exuberance all over again by hawk · · Score: 1

      >Evidently you do not recall the dotcom era around
      >1998-2000. Irrationally overpriced companies are
      >nothing even remotely new and Tesla is not covering
      >any new ground there.

      Only "sort of". Valuations of dotcoms were largely bets that they would be the amazon category-killer of their category. When all of the competitors were less than the winner's valuation would be, they are over priced--and, conversely, when (if it ever happened!) their combined value was *less* than the category-killer would be worth, they were underpriced. And this applies to the group; the one that had a 40% chance of winning should have been worth 40% of the category. If it was only 30%, even though the total was 200%, that particular one was underpriced.

      20 years ago, amazon itself seemed bizarrely over-priced . . . (and the same for google). Neither seemed to have a real path to be profitable, but . . .

      And then there's apple. In the late 90s, I was eating for it to drop to $13.50 to buy $5k (or go nuts with $10k) in my retirement accounts. I figured it would eventually be sold for $20/share to be broken up (it *did* manufacture the highest quality hardware at the time [with notable exceptions]).

      *sigh*

      it never went below $14 . . .

      oh, well.

      hawk

  35. Future free cash flows by sjbe · · Score: 1

    Ford's valuation is based on future earnings potential.

    Correct. Same is true for any company. Tesla included. However stock prices in the sort term routinely can deviate from this rational analysis. We saw quite a lot of this back during the dotcom bubble.

    Whether that's accurate or not, Tesla can change direction vastly more rapidly than can FoMoCo.

    Tesla's valuation cannot possibly be based on any rational analysis of future free cash flows. The fact that they are currently more nimble than Ford is pretty much irrelevant in the short to medium term. Short term valuations don't have to be based on anything rational. Long term though they pretty much always are. Show me any rational analysis whereby Tesla's future earnings potential exceeds Ford's within the next 5 years by enough to justify their current valuation.

    Investors need a return on their investment within a reasonable time period. Tesla is so overpriced that it is unreasonable to expect a return on investment any time soon. Doesn't mean it is a bad company or that they won't be profitable. It just means that they aren't likely to generate enough profits to provide a rational ROI to investors in a useful time frame. Right now we just have a bunch of people playing a game of who is the Greater Fool.

    Not necessarily. You could be hoping that one of their competitors buys them.

    Doesn't change the equation. If you buy Tesla stock and hypothetically GM buys Tesla, you still have an investment in Tesla and you still are hoping for misfortune for the competition because if someone buys a Tesla then they are not buying someone else's brand of vehicle. It might bump your ROI but it remains a zero sum game whereby a long position in one auto company is de-facto a synthetic short position in every other auto company.

    1. Re:Future free cash flows by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Doesn't change the equation. If you buy Tesla stock and hypothetically GM buys Tesla, you still have an investment in Tesla and you still are hoping for misfortune for the competition because if someone buys a Tesla then they are not buying someone else's brand of vehicle.

      This assumes that GM (in your example) doesn't just shut Tesla down and absorb its technology into its other product lines. That would be bad for the workers at Tesla, but as a corporation, it's often a profitable end game.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    2. Re:Future free cash flows by Train0987 · · Score: 1

      Not if GM "absorbs Tesla's technology" by picking the Tesla carcass in bankruptcy.

  36. Re: Ah no. The shorts are fine. by shaitand · · Score: 1

    Sounds like you are confusing people who buy stock with investors.

  37. Re: hmmm by dev-in-seattle · · Score: 1

    You could try to make out production numbers like that but the quarter was way more productive than the previous one so it's just not a credible analysis.

  38. Re:hmmm by lgw · · Score: 3, Funny

    It will be a dire week for short sellers. I finally sold my TSLA last week, so it's sure to double next week!

    --
    Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
  39. Re:Trump dies in Federal Prison either way a trait by Sarten-X · · Score: 2

    Everybody with whom you disagree is a Russian bot.

    Now, that's not actually what I said at all. I said there are bots and sockpuppets on both sides, but they're focusing more on stirring up anger than having actual discussion. For example, one of the preferred tactics on both sides is "whataboutism", where they will bring up a completely unrelated subject like a recent court decision to steer the conversation away from rational analysis and towards partisan vitriol.

    Did you know the Supreme Court, in effect, just destroyed public sector unions?

    Oh look, there it is!

    Why don't you focus on issues instead of the stupid Russian interference fantasy?

    Foreign interference is an issue. It is probably the most important issue, because it undermines the legitimacy of every other democratic process.

    Take your example, for instance. The SCOTUS has determined that collective bargaining is not necessarily always something a non-union worker wants (regardless of whether it's in their best interest), so under the First Amendment, non-union workers have the freedom to choose not to associate with the union.

    Now, it's certainly easy to think this is a purely American problem. It's a case in an American court about American workers interpreting American laws governing American business practices. However, it's still a matter of international interest, as those American public-sector organizations are responsible for handling how the United States executes the duties of government, which in turn affects how the United States can compete globally with foreign efforts. If a foreign power can sway the American policy in a way that harms America's economic capabilities, they will create opportunities for their own advancement.

    Similarly, American elections are vitally important for determining American policy. If a foreign government is able to promote a narcissistic President, for example, they would be able to sway any policy or political negotiations by simply rolling out red carpet and offering copious amounts of insubstantial flattery. It is imperative, then, that we fully investigate any allegation of impropriety during elections. Everything - from campaign funding to personnel selection, and beyond - should be open to scrutiny, even if nothing is ultimately found.

    Even if the investigation ultimately finds no foreign influence, having a thorough investigation process itself deters foreign powers from trying to influence elections, as they can be sure the investigation will make such influence difficult to hide, at best.

    --
    You do not have a moral or legal right to do absolutely anything you want.
  40. The parent post speaks truth. by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

    This is why sustained production numbers are the only accurate ones.

    So. Much. This.

    With their enormous debt load, low credit rating, shrinking capital reserves, and lack of cash flow - sprints are irrelevant. Sprints generate lots of publicity, lets the fanboys drool and crow, impresses the impressionable and the already convinced... They do very little to address the very real problems Tesla is facing in the short (>6 mos) term.

  41. TSLA is ludicrously overvalued by sjbe · · Score: 1

    That's hilarious logic right there. You don't even understand that you're not comparing the same thing, do you?

    What exactly do you think is not "the same thing"? Do you not recognize the same data for both companies? You think Tesla is somehow special so that profits and revenues shouldn't play any role in determining market cap?

    So, what you're saying is that you don't know anything about Tesla. I get it.

    Ok smart guy. Show us how brilliant your financial analysis is. Prove your case. Show me how Tesla is going to make a profit large enough to justify a valuation 50% larger than Ford with 7% of the revenue and negative profits nor any near term expectations of significant profits. Dazzle me with your brilliant insight.

    With this level of expertise, I can't imagine why you're not the next Warren Buffet.

    Never claimed to be Buffet but you don't have to be to know that TSLA is a ludicrously overvalued stock. Someday it might make sense for TSLA to be worth more than Ford but that day is definitely not today.

    1. Re:TSLA is ludicrously overvalued by apoc.famine · · Score: 1

      Ok smart guy. Show us how brilliant your financial analysis is. Prove your case.

      Sorry, but if you're not willing to even learn a tiny bit about the company on your own, I'm not willing to spend my time teaching you. Search bar is up at the top of the page. I'll give you a hint: These two companies are not at the same stage of their lives.

      --
      Velociraptor = Distiraptor / Timeraptor
    2. Re:TSLA is ludicrously overvalued by hawk · · Score: 1

      So, tell me about Ford's battery business?

      How many houses does it power, and how many electrical grids does it have sites attached to?

      Tesla is *not* really in the car business, any more than Las Vegas is in the gambling business.

      Tesla is in the *battery* business, and cars are a great way to move them (and Las Vegas is in the fantasy business; gambling is just a big part of the schtick. [and for the matter, look at the land under the corporate owned McDonald's which it also owns . . . ])

      hawk

  42. Re:Ah no. The shorts are fine. by Rei · · Score: 1

    Stock prices are not based on what Tesla's year-old plans for the present time, any more than they're based on Tesla's two-year-old plans for the present time (which were less optimistic than reality). Stock pricing is based on current expectations, not old ones.

    --
    Why must all aquatic villains play the organ?
  43. Re: Rush by aquacrayfish · · Score: 1

    Heck, salves are great for injuries. I didn't see the problem.

  44. I'm reminded of Gung Ho by drewsup · · Score: 1

    that cheesy Mike Keaton movie when they pledge to build 15,000 cars to make a bonus, he gets in the last one made to prove its worthy of buying and the doors and wheels falls off!

  45. Re:Footage of the 5000th car off the line. by boley1 · · Score: 1

    If anyone's curious, here's the released footage of that 5000th car off the Assembly line.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvW_PDkElho

    Please go easy with the negative ratings. I hope to buy either a Model 3, Y or Pickup myself and even own approximately 2 shares of Tesla stock. So I'm no Tesla hater. This post should be marked as Funny!

  46. Re:Ah no. The shorts are fine. by Train0987 · · Score: 1

    Not to mention the SolarCity self-dealing that's now blowing up. Musk had TSLA shareholders bail out his personal investment in SolarCity and now he's winding down that entire business now that he's whole. SolarCity alone has billions in debt coming due soon.

  47. Long term versus looooooong term by sjbe · · Score: 2

    The stock valuation is definitely high because of speculation, but it's long term not short.

    How long do you think is "long term"? Even a long term play still needs to have a justifiable ROI. It doesn't matter if it returns a 10% gain if it takes 10 years to do it based on the companies operating fundamentals.

    If they can actually maintain sales and production of 5000 Model 3's a week that will generate profits around a couple billion a year, working from the assumption that their gross profit margin is only 20%.

    Gross margin is not relevant here except insofar as it affects net margin. If Tesla builds 5000 Model 3s per week and sells them for $50K each then that is ~$13 billion in revenue (slightly over double their current revenue). 20% gross margin is in line with other automakers so the question is what the net margin will be. The most profitable automakers out there top out at around 11% net margins. Let's pretend Tesla can match that somehow even though they clearly won't in the near term. That would be a profit of $1.43 billion assuming some ludicrously optimistic assumptions come to pass. But realistically Tesla would be lucky to capture a fraction of that in the next few years. They might be very profitable in time but it won't happen in the next 12 months and they have some debt to serve next year.

    Then you have to figure out how long it would take for the shareholders to recoup their money. With a market cap of $60 billion (equity) plus $10 billion in debt (debt gets paid first over equity) and profits of $1.43 billion it will take 49 YEARS for TSLA to generate a positive return on that investment at current share prices. ROI = Annual Cash Flow / Equity and that works out to around a 2.8% ROI under completely unrealistic profit assumptions of 11% net margins. I'm a patient guy but I need an ROI before I'm dead.

  48. Re: Ah no. The shorts are fine. by Train0987 · · Score: 1

    When you and the "institutional investors" voted for it did you guys know that Musk was an original seed investor for SolarCity with a 20% equity stake that was going to be wiped out when their debt came due at the end of this year? No, he didn't disclose that until after the vote. Did you and the "institutional investors" know that the solar roof shingles he demo'd at the shareholder's meeting were non-working mockups and that they didn't even have a working prototype? Other's would've already been charged with fraud for doing what he did with SolarCity. SolarCity is now winding down operations right before the massive California law requiring all new houses have solar. Why would they do that if there was any truth to the hype about that company?

  49. Re: Ah no. The shorts are fine. by Train0987 · · Score: 1

    Not disclosing his ownership interest in SolarCity before having TSLA shareholders bail him out is straight up fraud.

    They aren't just laying off SolarCity mgmt, the entire business is being wound down (i.e. closed).

  50. Re:Ah no. The shorts are fine. by mlyle · · Score: 1

    Of course, though ... past organizational performance often *is* indicative of future results. The same management team hitting milestones with ease indicates that you probably have a capable organization and approach to market that is serving you well; struggling and hitting them late may be because of a one-time setback or may indicate that bumpy roads lie ahead, too.

  51. Re:Ah no. The shorts are fine. by swillden · · Score: 1

    struggling and hitting them late may be because of a one-time setback or may indicate that bumpy roads lie ahead, too.

    Or it may indicate that they just habitually set very high goals. There's a common notion in Silicon Valley that if you regularly achieve your goals, you must be setting them too low. Musk's companies have a history of doing incredible things while failing to do the even more incredible things he promised.

    --
    Note to ACs: I usually delete AC replies without reading them. If you want to talk to me, log in.
  52. Re:Ah no. The shorts are fine. by Daemonik · · Score: 1

    Oh bull. Stock prices are based on fairy dust and personality cults. Musk could change the name from Tesla to TeslaBlockchain and triple the stock price with no other changes at all.

  53. Re:Ah no. The shorts are fine. by soc_cost_priv_gains · · Score: 1

    My high school English teacher had a saying written on the chalkboard: it is better to aim for the stars and miss, than aim for a pile of manure and hit.

  54. Re: Ah no. The shorts are fine. by c6gunner · · Score: 1

    They aren't just laying off SolarCity mgmt, the entire business is being wound down (i.e. closed).

    That's just a lie. SolarCity, as a brand name, is being retired, but "the business" is very much staying alive. The infrastruture, intellectual property, critical employees, etc. are all being retained; it's just that all future solar products will be sold under the Tesla brand.

  55. Re: Ah no. The shorts are fine. by Rei · · Score: 1

    They're confusing the "winding down" of Solar City's old low-margin installation business with the "winding down" of what Solar City's debt was actually accumulated to fund (Gigafactory 2), which is very much not being wound down.

    --
    Why must all aquatic villains play the organ?
  56. Re:Ah no. The shorts are fine. by mlyle · · Score: 1

    Yah, that's fine, as long as we're not talking about the yardsticks that are involved in continued survival--- which is what we are. It's unclear how much access to debt or equity markets TSLA has, and they're attempting to thread the needle with very limited cash to profitability.

  57. Re: Ah no. The shorts are fine. by Rei · · Score: 1

    an aesthetically beautiful and simple one-stop solar + storage experience: one installation, one service contract, one phone app.

    Yes, that's a description of the solar roofing product.

    We will also be able to leverage Tesla's 190-store retail network and international presence to extend our combined reach.

    That's exactly what they're doing: using Tesla stores to sell the products, reducing duplication overhead.

    Why are you quoting Tesla describing exactly what they're doing to argue that they're doing something else?

    --
    Why must all aquatic villains play the organ?
  58. Re:In the meantime.... by Rei · · Score: 1

    Are you totally obvious to the fact that every major car maker and many smaller ones all have EV in their line ups NOW or due in the next 1-2 car cycles?

    Yes, and they're an embarrassment by comparison, in terms of either volume, price point/capabilities, or both.

    There's a reason that nearly half a million people lined up to wait ages for a Model 3 and not a Focus Electric, whether you understand why or not.

    --
    Why must all aquatic villains play the organ?
  59. Re:Ah no. The shorts are fine. by Rei · · Score: 1

    No, we're not. Tesla has no need for debt or equities markets to survive, and a several billion dollar buffer is not "threading the needle".

    --
    Why must all aquatic villains play the organ?
  60. Re:Ah no. The shorts are fine. by mlyle · · Score: 1

    Are we reading the same financial statements? They had $2.8B of cash on hand 3/31, after net negative cash flows of $800M, and have unquestionably burnt a lot more this quarter. This is not billions of dollars of buffer. I don't know the terms of covenants on their debt and what kind of cash balance they're *allowed* to get to, but it's not $0. This is cutting it really fine-- any time you have less than 3 quarters of cash on hand at current burn it's absolutely nervewracking (been there, done that).

    I'm neither short nor long on TSLA. It's not as desperate of a situation as the haters say, but .... it's not like you put it, at all, either ;)

  61. Re:Ah no. The shorts are fine. by Rei · · Score: 1

    They had $2.8B of cash on hand

    Yes, that's known as a "several billion dollar buffer".

    after net negative cash flows of $800M

    1) $675M

    2) That's an entire year's worth. The concept that they can't become profitable in a year at the current high burn rate - let alone a declining rate - is utter nonsense.

    3) Capex creates assets that can be borrowed against.

    and have unquestionably burnt a lot more this quarter.

    Have unquestionably not.

    --
    Why must all aquatic villains play the organ?
  62. Re:Ah no. The shorts are fine. by mlyle · · Score: 1

    > > They had $2.8B of cash on hand

    > Yes, that's known as a "several billion dollar buffer".

    I don't know if you're a native English speaker, but a couple is usually "2", few is "3-4", and several usually means "4-7". Further, a buffer only extends to the amount that is **more than you need**.

    > 1) $675M

    Net (decrease) increase in cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash (745,251) ... which is offset by $1.7B of issuance of debt during the period.

    > Have unquestionably not.

    Just to be clear as to what I meant: have burnt a lot more cash this quarter, but not necessarily more cash than the quarter before. We'll know in a few days the exact numbers.

  63. Re:Ah no. The shorts are fine. by mlyle · · Score: 1

    > 2) That's an entire year's worth. The concept that they can't become profitable in a year at the current high burn rate - let alone a declining rate - is utter nonsense.

    I didn't even notice this in your comment.

    No. They had $3.96B in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash on Jan 1. They had $3.22B in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash on Mar 31. During this time they took in $1.78B in debt financing.

    http://ir.tesla.com/node/18711...

  64. Re:Ah no. The shorts are fine. by mlyle · · Score: 1

    (And just for completeness, paid down $1.39B of debt-- resulting in a net burn of about $1B a quarter).