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Automation: The Exaggerated Threat of Robots (flassbeck-economics.com)

It will take quite a lot of time before robots become cheaper than workers in emerging markets such as Africa, argues Nico Beckert of Flassbeck Economics, a consortium of researchers who aim to provide economics insights with a more realistic basis. From the post: All industrialized countries used low-cost labour to build industries and manufacture mass-produced goods. Today, labour is relatively inexpensive in Africa, and a similar industrialization process might take off accordingly. Some worry that industrial robots will block this development path. The reason is that robots are most useful when doing routine tasks -- precisely the kind of work that is typical of labour-intensive mass production. At the moment, however, robots are much too expensive to replace thousands upon thousands of workers in labour-intensive industries, most of which are in the very early stages of the industrialization process. Robots are currently best used in technologically more demanding fields like the automobile or electronics industry.

Even a rapid drop in robot prices would not lead to the replacement of workers by robots in the short term in Africa where countries lag far behind in terms of fast internet and other information and communications technologies. They also lack well-trained IT experts. Other problems include an unreliable power supply, high energy costs and high financing costs for new technologies. For these reasons, it would be difficult and expensive to integrate robots and other digital technologies into African production lines.

134 comments

  1. We now have proof by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 2

    Msmash is, in fact, an AI/robot, trying to throw us off the trail of their takeover of the world! "Pay no attention to the robots and AIs gaining on you, it's all, uh, well, - not real?" Msmash - you've been outed!

    --
    Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    1. Re:We now have proof by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    2. Re:We now have proof by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 1

      I didn't say she was a GOOD robot or AI...

      --
      Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
    3. Re:We now have proof by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wulfie is that you?

    4. Re:We now have proof by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-31/mark-cuban-ai-if-you-dont-think-terminator-will-appear-youre-crazy

      also... wulfie is that you? (the dogs name is rex)

    5. Re:We now have proof by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Uh, I thought msmash was a guy.

  2. What I believe by Brett+Buck · · Score: 4, Funny

    People think I am crazy for believing this, but I believe that robots are stealing my luggage.

    1. Re:What I believe by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Just FYI, most of them can brute force a five-digit combination in under a second.

    2. Re:What I believe by Scarletdown · · Score: 1

      And I believe that we should allow all foreigners into the country as long as they speak our native language, Apache.

      (Good bet very few get either your post or mine) :D

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    3. Re: What I believe by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I got yours, but don't understand the parent post

    4. Re:What I believe by Scarletdown · · Score: 2

      He didn't say breaking into his luggage, He said stealing his luggage.

      Want to know more?

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      This space unintentionally left blank.
    5. Re:What I believe by Kjella · · Score: 1

      Good bet very few get either your post or mine

      Why? There's an XKCD for nearly every story posted here. Also it's Cherokee ;)

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    6. Re:What I believe by Scarletdown · · Score: 1

      No. It is indeed Apache

      Steve Martin's monologue predates XKCD by decades.

      Next, you are going to be telling us that the chariot race in Ben Hur was a ripoff of the pod race in Phantom Menace.

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      This space unintentionally left blank.
    7. Re: What I believe by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      XCKD is a liberal fucktard.

    8. Re:What I believe by Immerman · · Score: 1

      Through a physical interface? I find that unlikely. At least one of those luggage combination dials would have to make 10,000 revolutions in the process, meaning it's rotating at 600,000rpm I'd bet good money that centrifugal "forces" would tear it apart long before it reached that speed.

      One of the biggest advantages of physical locks over digital ones is that "brute forcing" isn't really viable - you have to either exploit a vulnerability (a.k.a. lockpicking), or ignore the lock entirely and simply break in through less circumspect means. Lockpicking is mostly only relevant if you're trying to be discrete or non-destructive - a crowbar, bullet, chainsaw, etc. is usually a far faster and simpler solution.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    9. Re:What I believe by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      Could you be more specific on the dialect?
      I would hate to waste my time for learning the wrong one :)

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    10. Re:What I believe by ItsJustAPseudonym · · Score: 1

      Good old Uncle Todd. Thanks for the link.

    11. Re:What I believe by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No the Phantom Menace was a rehash of the Wacky Races cartoon.

    12. Re:What I believe by mlyle · · Score: 1

      > Through a physical interface? I find that unlikely. At least one of those luggage combination dials would have to make 10,000 revolutions in the process
      No.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

    13. Re:What I believe by mlyle · · Score: 2

      Just to follow up-- http://emis.impa.br/EMIS/journ... constructing "r-ary" (i've always heard them called n-ary) maximally balanced gray codes. A fairly recent set of findings (2007) which would guarantee you optimality.

      Means that every wheel has to spin close to 2000 times for a complete brute force of a 5 digit code (1000 on average; this comes from 100000 combinations / 5 shared equally over all wheels / 10 per revolution), or 250 times in the brute force of a 4 digit code (125 on average). Probably still not possible for a 1s attack, but much better than the bounds you suggest.

    14. Re:What I believe by Immerman · · Score: 1

      Ah, of course. I haven't used Gray codes since college, but they would make perfect sense for such a project. I don't think I've ever even considered using them for non-binary codes, but they seem to have a system worked out.

      Of course 2000 revolutions in a second is still 120,000RPM, and you'd need to factor in the "stop, test, accelerate" after every change so the wheels would still probably be torn apart, but you could probably get it done within in under an hour (~30 combinations per second) without too much trouble. Assuming the lock worked flawlessly - but I've known an awful lot of locks that needed to be fiddled with for a second or two to open even with the right combination.

      However, 5 seconds with a crowbar seems a little more likely in most real-world scenarios.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
  3. That's right!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    All the workers who get displaced by automation are going to go to engineering school and build those robots! And the ones who can't do that will go to medical school and become doctors and eliminate the shortage of physicians.

    1. Re:That's right!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This article is focusing on the "robot" sort of automation, which hit the US manufacturing sector in 2000. But of course that's 20 year old news. And it's a little odd to talk about this being exaggerated after we've seen so much of it.

      But anyway, I'm pretty sure the next wave of automation takin' er' jerbs! is going to be white-collar doctors. General Practictioners anyway. AI and expert systems and big data does a lot better job of diagnosis people than actual doctors. There will still be specialists, but a lot of them are likely going to be out of a job.... as soon as the insurance companies realize they can save a buck.

    2. Re:That's right!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > But anyway, I'm pretty sure the next wave of automation takin' er' jerbs! is going to be white-collar doctors. General Practitioners anyway. AI and expert systems and big data does a lot better job of diagnosis people than actual doctors. There will still be specialists, but a lot of them are likely going to be out of a job.... as soon as the insurance companies realize they can save a buck.

      I reckon the white-collar GP's and specialist types will become the owners of their respective AI's, possibly subscribing to AI data sets relative to their field while maintaining the human element between their AI data set and the patient/client.

      The ones that have already been replaced by task specific mechanical/digital construction line devices, and those that will be replaced within the next 5 -15 years by a less constrained, versatile mechanical digital/AI labour bots, will suffer most.

      Until versatile mechanical digital AI labour becomes legal and affordable for all, life is gonna suck hard unless a sustainable and fair universal income is adopted, the unemployable are eliminated or the adoption of a cashless society is somehow implemented.

      My thoughts ;)

      peace...

         

  4. So what? by drinkypoo · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It will take quite a lot of time before robots become cheaper than workers in emerging markets such as Africa,

    So what? What does that straw man have to do with anything?

    Today, labour is relatively inexpensive in Africa, and a similar industrialization process might take off accordingly. Some worry that industrial robots will block this development path.

    I haven't seen one person worry about that. Not a single one. What people are worried about isn't whether Africans will get a job, they're worried whether outsourcing and automation will take jobs that people have now. Africans probably know that there is a good chance that most of the remaining human-based manufacturing jobs will end up in Africa, which is a situation all major corporations in a position to care are working towards.

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    1. Re:So what? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Africans probably know that there is a good chance that most of the remaining human-based manufacturing jobs will end up in Africa, which is a situation all major corporations in a position to care are working towards.

      I wouldn't bet on that at all; that infrastructure won't spring out of nowhere, and shipping costs are an increasing concern.

      This is just one example of what's coming down the pike.

      Bloomberg ran a piece awhile back about a Chinese company that purchased US designed sewbots and opened a plant in Arkansas. The future is in the first world's back yard; Africa and and much of Asia (with the exception of China as they're kicking their research into high gear) are fucked.

    2. Re:So what? by DNS-and-BIND · · Score: 3, Informative

      Africa will never be big as a labor source. African nations have weak rule of law, weak courts that can resolve business disputes, weak safety for the businessmen traveling about, poor infrastructure, anti-business governments that see foreign businesses as something to squeeze money from, the list goes on. Until this changes, African labor won't happen. Even the Chinese have to bring their own workers along and insist on immunity from local laws so they can build their own trains.

      --
      Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
    3. Re:So what? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Africans probably know that there is a good chance that most of the remaining human-based manufacturing jobs will end up in Africa, which is a situation all major corporations in a position to care are working towards.

      Which is also the reason anti-globalism and protectionist policies are becoming more prevalent in modern politics. No one, except the corporations wanting to profit, wants to have their standard of living dragged down to whatever the poorest and most corrupt nations on earth will allow. Note, I'm referring to any nation here not just the ones in Africa. After all, when Africa has all of the jobs, what will other desperate for income nations do? Try to out bid them, by being even worse off and demanding even less in remittance than they are.

      To anyone who says that automation isn't a threat, I have this to say to you. Yes, previous technology advances that caused upheavals created new jobs to take their place. What's different this time however, is the technology we're making now can do those new jobs as well, as well as any new job we might make in the future. Previously, the technology advancements were limited to specific tasks. The tech we are working on now eliminates the restrictions while significantly lowering the cost of using them when compared to the cost of a human doing the exact same task.

      To put it bluntly, as a capitalist business owner would you: A. Pay a bunch of humans to do every task you needed done, have to give them breaks, maintain safe working conditions, worry about them demanding pay raises, or bunching together and forming a union, pay for their healthcare (in the US anyway), train them, etc. OR B. Would you prefer to buy a bunch of literal worker drones that never need to sleep, never complain, always do what their told, have no rights to worry about, do not have to be paid anything, and only need the electricity and occasional maintenance (which they themselves can perform)? If you said anything other than "B!B!B!B!B!B!B!B!" Then congratulations, you're not a complete asshole hellbent on dragging society into the gutter for your own selfish gain. You're also not a real capitalist, because that's what capitalism dictates must be done. To buy for the lowest price and sell for the highest price means using the cheapest labor available to you to get those expensive products and services to customers. If that means using robots and bankrupting entire countries so what? It's not your problem according to capitalism.

      If you still have a disbelief about automation after I've said that, then you live in denial. Given enough time that's what will happen unless something is done to prevent it, and that's what we're seeing play out right now. We had better hope the protectionists win too otherwise, 99.987% of the world's population are going to be living in hellholes.

    4. Re: So what? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Any successful companies will have their factories seized amd distributed to the greedy locals just like south africa.

    5. Re:So what? by Immerman · · Score: 2

      It is true that most businesses prefer to outsource such security and contract enforcement to cooperative governments - but organized crime is only moderately more expensive, especially in places where the rule of law is weak.

      Less extra-legally, as I recall China (among others) is increasingly exploring city-building treaties that effectively hand them (possibly in partnership with other stable governments) legal and judicial jurisdiction of a region in return for building a city there and attracting investors - specifically to address the investment issues associated with relative lawlessness. Make sure the national politicians get their fingers deep in the tax pie, and would risk a major international incident to try to renege, and you've got a carrot and stick that could be quite effective at promoting rapid industrialization.

      China has long been grooming Africa to do for China much what China did for the U.S. - and the Chinese, especially in the upper echelons of politics, do tend to play a well-considered long game. Even if they don't always understand the game as well as they think they do.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    6. Re:So what? by Riceballsan · · Score: 1

      agreed. the point is robots are cheaper than giving humans a half way comfortable living. If we are comparing their cost against the minimum necessary to keep a human alive and working in slave like conditions it will be a while. Now if we are talking about hypothetically ever getting these jobs back in first world countries, as well as not losing more first world jobs to robots, the threat is a bit greater.

    7. Re:So what? by epine · · Score: 2

      African nations have weak rule of law, [many other universally shared African flaws] ...

      The one basket-case-fits-all model of African development is exposing your ankles, restricting your natural leg movement, and giving you a hideous muffin top.

      Get a bigger pair of pants. (Updating your intellectual wardrobe every twenty years or so would make for a good start.)

    8. Re:So what? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It will take quite a lot of time before robots become cheaper than workers in emerging markets such as Africa

      So what? What does that straw man have to do with anything?

      What's "quite a lot of time"? 100 years?

      For countries with the expertise and/or capital to invest in robots... robots gonna be waaay more efficient than 3rd world unskilled laborers by then.

      100 years is a lot of time for 3d printing, AI, material science, and possibly transportation (e.g., drones, electric trucks) to advance. If the 3rd world doesnt adapt, the 3rd world is gonna get more 3rd world. 4th world?

    9. Re: So what? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ahhhhh.....
      Wakanda is make believe dude. It's not real.

      There's no black country worth a pinch of shit, anywhere.

    10. Re: So what? by Brujis · · Score: 1

      Yes, either might take the jobs they currently have but this does not mean they won't find other jobs. If that is what happens then that is what will happen, it nobody's business but those offering the jobs.

    11. Re: So what? by Brujis · · Score: 1

      No it isn't. So long as people can do something someone else values they will have jobs. End of discussion.

    12. Re: So what? by Riceballsan · · Score: 1

      Values more than the cost of paying them to do it, and that the amount of people able to do it are somewhat comparable to the amount of people willing to do it for that price. If there's 10 people that want to mow my lawn... only 1 of them are going to get that job, actually bad example there, eventually those roomba style lawn mowers will come down in price to save me the money of hiring someone to mow my lawn.

    13. Re:So what? by DNS-and-BIND · · Score: 1

      So what's changed? Where's this flowering of laws and civilized behavior? Where can you start a business and not be hounded into bankruptcy by the locals?

      --
      Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
    14. Re:So what? by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 1

      So what? What does that straw man have to do with anything?

      Nothing. It's a "the technology isn't really ready yet" argument: it won't happen today, so it won't happen.

      The real argument is that technology doesn't ever replace labor; it augments it. The counterpoint to this will be when technology becomes labor, at which point it won't matter. A generic technology able to do anything without human tuning and improvement would be able to think and reason: it would be human.

      The magical thinking surrounding a world where work is no longer a thing has been around for hundreds of years. There's a reason we call these people Luddites.

    15. Re: So what? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What if I told you that the South African government didn't run all 54 countries in Africa?

      Would the Egyptian government seize factories built near the Nile?

      Would the Moroccan government seize your precious factories?

      How about Ghana? Do they operate the same way South Africa does?

    16. Re:So what? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oh, I don't know, maybe you could consult a report and take a closer look at Kenya or Botswana? If you were actually interested in doing anything real instead of scoring cheap "hur dur, Africa is backwards!" points on /., that is.

    17. Re:So what? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You don't even need to pose that in the hypothetical.

      If you own an air conditioner instead of hiring someone to wave a fan, congratulations, you prefer technology to employment.
      Own a car instead of hiring taxis? Check.
      Own a microwave instead of hiring a chef? Check.
      Own a dishwasher instead of hiring a maid? Check.

    18. Re:So what? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Re: work no longer being a thing, I'm not worried that there will be no jobs. We have lots of jobs now, and they're in a different distribution than 50 years ago.

      What I'm worried about is 50+% of blue-collar jobs being done by robots. We already have a bifurcated labor market. Lots of the automation technologies on the horizon look to make that worse, far worse.

      Think about the dumbest person you know in real life. Can you think of 5 jobs they could do well and pay $50k or more?

    19. Re:So what? by RespekMyAthorati · · Score: 1

      Sure, robotechnology will create new jobs - for people having advanced degrees in engineering, math, physics, accounting etc.
      The other 95% of the population are fucked.

    20. Re:So what? by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 1

      You're still thinking vertically: fewer low-end workers and more high-end engineers making the robots who replace them. That thinking is incorrect even in its own sphere: you're not saving any money unless there are fewer engineers and robot maintainers making and maintaining the robots than there are laborers replaced by robots.

      Imagine if shoes can suddenly be made with half the labor in total. Not just half as many people sewing them together--maybe that doesn't even happen--but there are fewer people digging out materials, performing chemical synthesis, shipping the materials, etc., and yet more material shows up and more shoes get made. Now you have 40 shoe manufacturers selling everything from high-end athletic shoes to overpriced prestige brands, right down to the cheapest shoes made for the poorest people. They're all competing on price, with the narrowest margins on the commodity goods, the next being functional goods (athletic shoes), and the widest margins on those competing for brand prestige.

      Your general consumer isn't a top-10% rich kid, so prices come down about half for shoes. That means what would be $40 shoes are instead $20. That $20 can be spent somewhere else.

      The $20 represents all labor invested in all levels of production, plus a profit margin. So does the $40.

      Spending this additional $20 necessarily entails creating a need and demand for the same amount of labor displaced. If you decrease the number of people making shoes by 70% (30% still working) and add 20% of the labor cost in machine production and maintenance to get your 50% savings, then buying twice as many shoes will theoretically require employing an additional 30% of your original shoe-making workforce (60% as many low-end workers operating the machines) and 20% in machine manufacture and maintenance.

      So there are a few issues with this math.

      First, we've only looked at the cost to make the shoes when moving that $20 onto buying new shoes. We're forgetting something: machines, parts, lubrication, and other maintenance bits have to be shipped in. The materials have to be shipped in. The finished shoes have to be shipped out, stocked, and retailed. This is low-end work that balances toward low-end labor, so a bigger portion of the new workforce--whether you're buying shoes or something else--is represented.

      If we automate the shipping (self-driving trucks), we still have to load and unload goods. The wooden shipping pallet eliminated 85% of that labor easily along the way; we've still got the labor of loading onto initial pallets even with mechanized transfers of containerized goods; and the small retail center is going to find a need for constant unloading (renting equipment doesn't make sense), while the capital investment in a machine to unload and stock things in a local K-Mart is enormous and underutilized. Not only are humans cheaper for stocking store shelves, but they're better at it and will be so long as planograms are day-to-day dynamic and based on human behavior and critical thinking to compromise on the situation while managing oddly-shaped goods.

      The automated shipping is really the biggest part: it's going to be heavy on low-skill automechanics instead of drivers.

      There was a time when elevator operator was a skilled job. So was cash register operator. Nowadays we hire 16-year-old high school kids to do oil changes at Jiffy Lube.

      So the situation is demonstratably that labor utilization will remain stable because we'll transfer our purchasing power to new goods and services, spreading horizontally. We don't have to worry about an unemployment rate increase.

      Geographical structure is likely the bigger one. Everyone likes to lean on retraining and education, which is important; and yet changes like this tend to happen in conjunction with labor force turn-over (college graduation, retirement) simply because turn-over is fast and huge while individual industries and new technologies have small impacts

  5. Tech industry wants slavery so badly by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Tech companies will make up any excuse not to hire skilled talent: robots, AI, outsourcing, H1Bs, internships, summers of code, taking from open source and not giving back.

    1. Re: Tech industry wants slavery so badly by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Maybe stop giving away your labor for free before complaining that companies are devaluing your labor?

  6. What kind of premise is this? by reanjr · · Score: 5, Insightful

    No one's claiming robots are going to put Africans out of work. No one gives a shit about Africans. Robots are going to put Americans and Europeans out of work.

    1. Re:What kind of premise is this? by robsku · · Score: 3, Insightful

      And that will eventually lead to death of capitalism - good riddance, although I doubt I'll be alive to see that.

      --
      In capitalist USA corporations control the government.
    2. Re:What kind of premise is this? by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      No one gives a shit about Africans.

      All the manufacturing giants do. There will continue to be jobs for humans for some time, and now that labor costs in China have risen, all eyes are on Africa. The jobs which aren't highly automated will continue to go overseas, and they will go to Africa.

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    3. Re:What kind of premise is this? by Charcharodon · · Score: 1
      What do you think robots are? Hate to break it to you they are capital. Now once you can use robots to make robots capitalism will do what it has been trying to do since the beginning...drive costs to zero. The corporate/government types will not be pleased when you can get your first robot build it kit at age 12 and turn that into a robot army by 18. They won't appreciate the military or economic competition for power and control.

      Really after robots all we need is some FTL drive and there wont be much to stop us from colonizing the galaxy.

    4. Re:What kind of premise is this? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No one's claiming robots are going to put Africans out of work. No one gives a shit about Africans. Robots are going to put Americans and Europeans out of work.

      Tribalism is the problem. People divide, with each consisting of people who either actually believe things that are untrue or say they do. If it concerns their guy or their cause they turn a blind eye to everything else and support it. Furthermore they reject actual truth that conflicts with their tribe's goals and objectives. Problems generally have solutions, many of which are generally well known, but tribalism gets in the way of implementing those solutions.

      Robots doing most of the work is a reasonable goal. The human race can or at least should be able to solve the problem of what they will do. One of the nice things about tribalism is it is somewhat self limiting, in that it tends to be inefficient, but then it usually has no problems with others not of the tribe paying the bill, which is a not so nice thing about it.

    5. Re:What kind of premise is this? by religionofpeas · · Score: 1

      > Really after robots all we need is some FTL drive and there wont be much to stop us from colonizing the galaxy.

      Why bother ? If you're the 1% who controls the robots, you can simply order them to exterminate everybody else, and you'll have the whole planet to yourself.

    6. Re:What kind of premise is this? by vtcodger · · Score: 3, Interesting

      "The jobs which aren't highly automated will continue to go overseas, and they will go to Africa"

      I can think of jobs that aren't easily automatable. But few of them seem candidates for shipping off the Africa. For example, picking apples can't currently be done by machines because the fruit bruises easily, and picking has to be done without damaging next year's buds. But shipping the whole tree off to the DRC to be plucked seems somewhat impractical.

      I'd sure like to see a list of specific industries that will be moving to Ghana, Liberia, Uganda, et.al.to take advantage of the cheap labor. And why not move work to Afghanistan or Mongolia? which have (on paper anyway) easy access to existing trade infrastructure. It's not like running rail lines from the existing Eurasian rail network requires new technology.

      --
      You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
    7. Re:What kind of premise is this? by jpaine619 · · Score: 1

      Why do you think we'd need FTL? I've watched several science shows that state that simply being able to achieve 10% of c will be more than sufficient, if we have robots. I mean, at that point our technology will probably be advanced enough that we'll be able to send along frozen embryos and the robots can raise them when they find a suitable world.

    8. Re:What kind of premise is this? by psycho12345 · · Score: 1

      As usual, the stuff that humans can do with their hands that robots have a hard time with, lacking the nimbleness and dexterity. Largely cheap textiles, those are already sent to Bangladesh and Vietnam, but even those are starting to get pricier. People count on having their $20 T-shirts, or other cheap clothes. The other thing will be any form of manufacturing because the case is that even in a automated setup, you need industrial engineers to properly plan and layout production lines to maximize profit, by reducing downtime between production runs, and minimize the need to reconfigure things in the first place. I assume companies are looking to either employ their own own people, or train Africans on it, and then pay them in local wages, keeping labor costs low. Considering the median income in the US, vs China, vs Kenya, and we see why.

    9. Re:What kind of premise is this? by SCVonSteroids · · Score: 1

      I don't mean to sound like an ass, but if that's your take on "a job too complicated for a robot" then I believe you are misinformed.

      The technology to identify and do everything you've specified as being constraints exists. The only thing stopping them from taking over is the idea that one of them would cost something close to a couple hundred thousands dollars, likely a quite a bit more otherwise I feel like we'd be seeing them already in crops owned by very wealthy individuals/businesses (Maybe we are, I haven't looked it up).

      You can bet you'll see a ton of them the second it becomes economical to do so.

      --
      I tend to rant.
    10. Re:What kind of premise is this? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The premise here is clickbait, pure and unalloyed.

      Without bothering to read TFA, the headline is so deliberately misleading (and, mind you, it's the actual title of this self-styled economic think tank's paper on the subject) that it's perfectly safe to assume that this announcement is solely for the purpose of trying to drum up business for Flassbeck Economics' consultants.

      And the results will shock you ... !

      (Posting as AC only so as not to undo prior upmods in this thread.)

      --

      Check out my novel ...

    11. Re:What kind of premise is this? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "The jobs which aren't highly automated will continue to go overseas, and they will go to Africa"

      I can think of jobs that aren't easily automatable. But few of them seem candidates for shipping off the Africa. For example, picking apples can't currently be done by machines because the fruit bruises easily, and picking has to be done without damaging next year's buds. But shipping the whole tree off to the DRC to be plucked seems somewhat impractical.

      I'd sure like to see a list of specific industries that will be moving to Ghana, Liberia, Uganda, et.al.to take advantage of the cheap labor. And why not move work to Afghanistan or Mongolia? which have (on paper anyway) easy access to existing trade infrastructure. It's not like running rail lines from the existing Eurasian rail network requires new technology.

      Goid points, which indicate another reason why robots are an overhyped threat. There is a far larger and more immediate threat of the realities inherent to globalism. E.g. the US is far ahead of the curve economically, but that progress was built in a lot of industry that can not support the expectations of standard of living. So we still have a lot of apples to pick. The solutions are to get Americans to do it for much lower wages than they currently find acceptable, import labor that will accept the prevailing wage, or do it with robots.

      As you and the article note, the robot thing is just magical thinking.

      Currently, Americans seem determined to wall off market rate labor, believing that without immigration, picking apples (and other low wage jobs) will become a modern middle class lifestyle supporting job. Idiotic.

      So there will always be low paying jobs, and there will never be a non global economy. Can the West come to grips with these realities, or will it tear itself apart trying to avoid them?

      After those questions are resolved, we’ll see what robots are good for.

    12. Re:What kind of premise is this? by Kjella · · Score: 1

      I can think of jobs that aren't easily automatable. But few of them seem candidates for shipping off the Africa. For example, picking apples can't currently be done by machines because the fruit bruises easily, and picking has to be done without damaging next year's buds. But shipping the whole tree off to the DRC to be plucked seems somewhat impractical.

      Everything related to harvesting a raw material obviously has to be where that raw material is. And some things are perishable, apples are both so they're pretty safe from outsourcing. But everything else... just to take a random example here from Norway, a lot of the bread is actually no longer made here. It comes half-baked and frozen, here they simply put it in the oven and finish it. I have a friend that works in construction, more and more comes as prefab modules like say entire bathrooms and in case of smaller apartments sometimes the whole thing. There's a lot of creativity in moving work you'd think needs to be done on site somewhere else. If Africa becomes cheaper than Asia don't be surprised if they ship containers of cotton and set up sweatshops in Africa instead.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    13. Re:What kind of premise is this? by dgatwood · · Score: 1

      So we still have a lot of apples to pick. The solutions are to get Americans to do it for much lower wages than they currently find acceptable, import labor that will accept the prevailing wage, or do it with robots. As you and the article note, the robot thing is just magical thinking.

      You missed the third choice, which is only made possible by the existence of mostly free global markets: Plant apple orchards in countries where labor is cheap, then bulldoze our apple orchards and replace them with food crops that can be mostly harvested by automation (wheat, corn, etc.). Then, import the apples while exporting grains.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    14. Re: What kind of premise is this? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Twenty isn't a cheap Tshirt, less than $3 is. You've been living in yuppie ripoff land too long.

    15. Re:What kind of premise is this? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No one gives a shit about Africans. Robots are going to put Americans and Europeans out of work.

      Not giving a shit about anyone but themselves is why Americans and Europeans ended up grasping for crumbs from the global table right next to Africans and everyone else.

      If you have to work for a living that identifies you far more than you origin fairy tale. Convincing American and European working class people otherwise is the key to keeping them in serfdom.

    16. Re:What kind of premise is this? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      So we still have a lot of apples to pick. The solutions are to get Americans to do it for much lower wages than they currently find acceptable, import labor that will accept the prevailing wage, or do it with robots. As you and the article note, the robot thing is just magical thinking.

      You missed the third choice, which is only made possible by the existence of mostly free global markets: Plant apple orchards in countries where labor is cheap, then bulldoze our apple orchards and replace them with food crops that can be mostly harvested by automation (wheat, corn, etc.). Then, import the apples while exporting grains.

      More magical thinking. Agriculture simply doesn’t work that way.

      OTOH there is no real reason that high paying STEM jobs can’t be much more widely distributed across the globe and that is exactly what is going to happen.

      So America will never be rid of the need for apple pickers, but there will be fewer tech jobs. Especially if America continues to throw tantrums and elect idiots to pursue broken ideas like punitive tariffs and isolationist immigration policies.

    17. Re:What kind of premise is this? by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

      That is not insightfull, but dumb.
      In Europe everything is already done by Robots.
      Ah, obviously no one would visit a shop where the 'burger flipper' is not a hot chick or a hot guy ... In case you mean that with 'robot'.

      --
      Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
    18. Re: What kind of premise is this? by c6gunner · · Score: 1

      If you have to work for a living that identifies you far more than you origin fairy tale. Convincing American and European working class people otherwise is the key to keeping them in serfdom.

      Yeah, this has been a communist talking point for about a century now. One would think that you guys would have given it a rest after Lenin and Stalin came along and freed you from the shackles of serfdom.

    19. Re: What kind of premise is this? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you have to work for a living that identifies you far more than you origin fairy tale. Convincing American and European working class people otherwise is the key to keeping them in serfdom.

      Yeah, this has been a communist talking point for about a century now. One would think that you guys would have given it a rest after Lenin and Stalin came along and freed you from the shackles of serfdom.

      So communism failed and that is why capitalism is grinding these people to dust? Fear of the communist boogie man has kept working class Americans and Europeans stupid, poor and hopeless.

    20. Re:What kind of premise is this? by Immerman · · Score: 1

      Add to that the fact that one of the deepest and most fundamental tribal divides has, throughout the history of civilization, been between the rich and the poor, and the problem comes into sharper focus. Especially since the rich mostly make the rules, and as you say, have no problems with others not of the tribe paying the bill.

      Add of course they hold their position in large part by fostering further, more superficial tribal divides among the poor - keep the browns and the whites at each other's throats. So too the liberals and conservatives, etc. Keep the other tribes focused on each other rather than their common enemy, so that those who do not stand together, fall together. As an added bonus, as frustration over the gradual fall builds to violence, that violence is mostly directed at each other - we become dogs fighting for scraps outside our master's feast-hall, rather than a unified pack keeping the spoils of the hunt for ourselves.

      And of course the evidence suggests that tribalism is baked into our biology, shared by all our close primate cousins, so trying to tackle it head-on is an exercise in futility. Perhaps we can individually rise above our biology - but that doesn't appreciably reduce its effectiveness in controlling the least-intelligent (or educated) masses. And their chains are what must be broken if we are to be free.

      --
      --- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
    21. Re: What kind of premise is this? by c6gunner · · Score: 1

      So communism failed and that is why capitalism is grinding these people to dust?

      Which people?

      Fear of the communist boogie man has kept working class Americans and Europeans stupid, poor and hopeless.

      Anger over capitalism has killed and empoverished well over a hundred million people in the last century. If you're talking about "stupid poor and helpless Europeans", chances are you're talking primarily about the old eastern block.

    22. Re:What kind of premise is this? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually it can work like that.

      Many Dutch farmers now farm fruits (strawberries, blueberries) in Egypt and other places in Africa, then put the fruit on a plane and auction it in the Netherlands.These are the same fruit that we used to farm in the Netherlands.

      I think the biggest reason is lower energy cost (Dutch farmers grow fragile crops in green houses) and being able to grow the fruit all year round. Lower staff cost probably is also important. Fruit like that has a high value/weight ratio so it is worth shipping per plane.

    23. Re:What kind of premise is this? by Lost+Race · · Score: 1

      That's a dangerous game for the 1% to play. Once the culling starts, nobody is safe. For reference see every single violent revolution in human history.

    24. Re:What kind of premise is this? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No one's claiming robots are going to put Africans out of work. No one gives a shit about Africans. Robots are going to put Americans and Europeans out of work.

      Exactly. When you have to use Africa in order to show how automation isn't a threat, it tends to show just how pathetically desperate you are to prove a point.

    25. Re:What kind of premise is this? by hackertourist · · Score: 1

      I'd sure like to see a list of specific industries that will be moving to Ghana, Liberia, Uganda, et.al.to take advantage of the cheap labor. And why not move work to Afghanistan or Mongolia?

      Afghanistan, and a number of countries in Africa, are not going to be a popular outsourcing destination because of political instability.

    26. Re:What kind of premise is this? by robsku · · Score: 1

      What do you think robots are? Hate to break it to you they are capital. Now once you can use robots to make robots capitalism will do what it has been trying to do since the beginning...drive costs to zero.

      Has it really? Capitalism doesn't do or try anything. Capitalists do - and they most certainly aren't trying to drive costs to zero. They would call it socialism, although really it wouldn't be - it would be a new kind of system, free of capitalism OR socialism as economic systems.

      --
      In capitalist USA corporations control the government.
    27. Re:What kind of premise is this? by dgatwood · · Score: 1

      You missed the third choice, which is only made possible by the existence of mostly free global markets: Plant apple orchards in countries where labor is cheap, then bulldoze our apple orchards and replace them with food crops that can be mostly harvested by automation (wheat, corn, etc.). Then, import the apples while exporting grains.

      More magical thinking. Agriculture simply doesn’t work that way.

      Sure it does—not over the course of months, but it very much works that way. Historically, most of our fruit in the U.S. was grown here in the U.S. These days, most of it is imported. Since 2010, the amount of fruit produced in the U.S. has declined by nearly 30%, while the amount of grain increased by nearly 40%. And over the last few decades, decreased demand for tobacco has resulted in tobacco farms switching to various grains, demand for neat gadgets has replaced apple orchards with Apple office buildings, etc.

      For the most part, fertile topsoil is fertile topsoil. As long as there is enough root structure to prevent runoff, you can pretty much grow whatever is needed wherever you need to grow it, unless what you're trying to grow has specific temperature limitations or sun hour requirements. You can grow apples anywhere from Alaska all the way down to the equator. You grow them differently in different places (aggressive pruning and annual leaf stripping at the equator, for example), but they will grow anywhere that humans can realistically survive. Some other fruits are more picky, like bananas and citrus (which don't like cold temperatures), but these have always been largely grown outside the U.S. anyway. And certain berries don't like heat, but there are varieties that are significantly more tolerant than others. So farmland isn't perfectly fungible, but it is pretty close.

      To be fair, some older fruit orchards may be unsuitable for growing some other types of plants because of lead arsenate contamination in the soil, but that's sort of a side issue, and an artifact of poor government oversight over pesticides, rather than anything fundamental about the soil. And obviously, digging up tree roots is a pain, too, but it can be done, and indeed, that's the only way that new farmland gets created, typically, i.e. it's a common thing to do. It makes little difference whether you're felling a forest or an orchard. And, of course, most of the orchards are near the coast, where land is valuable, so a lot of it is making way for housing, rather than farmland. But that land is then being replaced by irrigation pushing agriculture out into previously unusable areas elsewhere in the country, so on the whole, we're gaining agricultural output.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    28. Re:What kind of premise is this? by dgatwood · · Score: 1

      OTOH there is no real reason that high paying STEM jobs can’t be much more widely distributed across the globe and that is exactly what is going to happen.

      Addressing this unrelated subject in a separate post. The main reason tech jobs are so clustered is that most people over thirty have an aversion to packing up and moving to a new city to get a job, so businesses tend to locate themselves near where they can get talent easily. Tech started out concentrated in a few places, and remains so because of that inertia, which turns out to be remarkably hard to overcome.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

  7. Opportunities by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Ignoring all the international companies working and utilizing technology in the area, cell phones are already used by the local agricultural sectors. The utilization of technology in African economies by the locally owned companies and individuals comes organically, with benefits, efficiencies and opportunities.

    The challenge of distances remains, what ever the political conditions might be. "Lets use solar powered robots to maintain the newly build road network we uprooted entire villages and cities for" is not an easy proposition in any country.

  8. Say what now ? by gDLL · · Score: 1

    The free market exists only on EUrope or America ? O'really ? You are perhaps taking capitalism as some utopian academic idea, and not for the exchange of goods and price-finding system that it is.

    1. Re:Say what now ? by robsku · · Score: 1

      The free market exists only on EUrope or America ? O'really ?

      Wait... what?

      I'm certain I said nothing even remotely like that. Anywhere. Ever.

      You are perhaps taking capitalism as some utopian academic idea, and not for the exchange of goods and price-finding system that it is.

      I'm not sure... no, correct that, I'm definitely sure I don't understand what you're trying to say here.

      --
      In capitalist USA corporations control the government.
  9. Repent ! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Repent you sinners and blasphemers !

  10. What I got out of this... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It will take a long time for it to be worth it to replace African slave labor with robots...

    1. Re: What I got out of this... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Except the workers don't at all consider it "slave labor".

  11. "more realistic"? by sacrilicious · · Score: 4, Insightful

    a consortium of researchers who aim to provide economics insights with a more realistic basis

    "More realistic" than what? What is the yardstick or basis of comparison here, and how do they evidence whether they are in fact hitting their mark?

    --
    - First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then ???, then profit.
  12. The problem is workforce as a ware by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    All this fucking neoliberals barfing always the same old nonsense.

    The problem is -- and has always been -- to regard workforce (i.e. human time) as a ware, subject to the "laws" of supply and demand. Automation reduces demand, slowly lowering the prices in times where everything else goes up (especially real estate, and thus rents).

    You won't see the "robots" substituting human labor at a given moment, but you are seeing (you've been seeing now from the 70ies, if you've been paying attention) the less-earning people earning less and less. The whole subprime crisis in the USA can be seen as an "adjustment" in this direction.

    And then those lemmings vote for Trump, of all things, the one making money hand over fist with real estate, at the cost... of those very same lemmings. The irony is nearly too good to be true.

    The whole upheavals in the middle East? Look up the world market food prices at that time.

    We'll see more "adjustments" like that in the next future, and automation is just one element in that whole process.

    1. Re: The problem is workforce as a ware by c6gunner · · Score: 1

      You won't see the "robots" substituting human labor at a given moment, but you are seeing (you've been seeing now from the 70ies, if you've been paying attention) the less-earning people earning less and less.

      By "paying attention" you must be talking about your personal anecdotes. Otherwise you would know that wages for most workers (including your "poorest") have remained essentially unchanged for the last 30 years. They declined slightly from the 70s to the mid 90s and have been rising at a similar rate since then.

      http://www.pewresearch.org/fac...

      The whole subprime crisis in the USA can be seen as an "adjustment" in this direction.

      Again, nonsense. The subprime crisis was an adjustment for the fact that housing had become insanely overpriced. It's not wages that were the problem but rather the fact that housing had essentially become a ponzi scheme where each successive buyer knew that he could barely afford the house but firmly believed that he would be able to sell for a profit in a few years.

  13. Obvious flaws in the argument by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 5, Insightful

    To begin with, since African labor is currently cheaper than Chinese labor and has been for decades, why aren't all iPhones made in Africa?

    Consider:
    * it's not just cost of labor but also quality of output by labor (related to training and life experience)
    * the need for surrounding physical infrastructure (like reliable electricity)
    * the need for surrounding social infrastructure (like a hierarchical work ethic)
    * the need for surrounding political infrastructure (like rule of law and low corruption)
    * the cost of transportation (including local transportation to and from ports)
    * the cost of language barriers
    * the cost of cultural barriers

    Ultimately, to understand why the premise is wrong of all labor being done in Africa instead of by robots, ask yourself, why do you have a local printer or local copier in your home and office when it would be much cheaper per page to have everything printed and copied in a central print shop ten miles away? The answer is that the cost per page is not as significant to you as other values like convenience, turnaround, transportation, privacy, and security.

    Most humans in any location are less and less employable relative to robots and AI because human output is of more variable quality, humans take breaks, humans don't work 24X7, humans get sick, humans file lawsuits about working conditions, humans steal things, and humans require safer climate-controlled workplaces. Those are some of the same reasons almost everyone now drives horseless carriages instead of keeping several horses in a barn.

    Humans still have some advantages relative to robots and AI in some situations -- e.g. why Telsa should have set up a human-powered assembly line first and then automated when most of the routine needs were clearer. Long term though AI and robots will outperform human labor in almost all situations. Thus the need for a basic income, a gift economy, improved subsistence production with 3D printers and gardening robots, and/or democratically-planned government projects.

    See also: "Humans Need Not Apply"
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

    --
    A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
    1. Re:Obvious flaws in the argument by SCVonSteroids · · Score: 1

      They're saying other countries are moving away from their ways, since a lot of Asian economies are maturing, and only Africa remains to exploit.
      You mentioned corruption. Oh, trust me, they will need corruption if they're going to replace what the Asian economies have provided to the Western world for some time. How else do you treat millions of people like slaves? Good, acting businessmen certainly don't.

      --
      I tend to rant.
    2. Re:Obvious flaws in the argument by GuB-42 · · Score: 1

      Gift economy? 3D printers? Democratically-planned government projects?
      Nice ideal, but no.
      - A gift economy is still an economy. It is not based on pure altruism but on social rules that are much more complex than market economies. Passed a certain scale, gifts stop being gifts, they are a way of asserting power, repaying debts, etc... just like with money in a capitalist society. The difference is that in a market economy, we have clear rules. We know how much we will need to pay back, interest rates, etc... so we can make plans, and with contracts to make sure people keep their word. No need to find out how much you have to give back in order to keep the desired social status.
      - 3D printers are incredibly inefficient and just as limited compared to mass production technologies. They have their use cases, but not when we need to make billions of the same item. Or items that have tight tolerance when it comes to materials (ex: engines).
      - Do you know about the bike shed effect? It pretty much make democratic planning impossible. I means, the general public is completely incompetent when it comes to building something like a nuclear power plant or managing a welfare program. We need experts who can see the big picture and talk to other experts who can deal with the technical details, people with a solid background and years of experience in their field. Simply making an informed decision is too much to ask for the average guy. The "average guy" may be an expert in an other field, but that's irrelevant for the case. Democracy is least bad way of keeping leaders in check, but definitely not a universal solution.

  14. A long time, if ever by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Ditto for 'AI'. There's no such thing and likely never will be. Automation is actually one of the only honest terms to describe any of it, and it isn't going to kill the human race. I'd be much more concerned about the unethical humans behind the curtain.

  15. uh-huh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    "At the moment, however, robots are much too expensive to replace thousands upon thousands of workers in labour-intensive industries, most of which are in the very early stages of the industrialization process. Robots are currently best used in technologically more demanding fields like the automobile or electronics industry. "

    In other news, batteries are too expensive to use in cars, there's only a worldwide demand for maybe a dozen computers, and scientists prove that man can never fly!

  16. Robots and Industry 4.0 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Look, robots will take a number of unskilled or semi-skilled laborer's jobs, that's a fact. Outsourcing the job(s) to another continent (Africa in this example) for businesses to stay competitive is a constant need as there are cost pressures to a business to continue offering the typical worker the exchange of dollars for time spent working. The argument that we should not automate because it will cost a person's job is a non-starter. Businesses evolve, people evolve, and neither can afford to stand still or take the risk of becoming irrelevant. Just look at the project management triangle (triple constraint) - cost, time, resources - all we're discussing here is access to resources in a timely and cost-effective manner. This is just optimization, nothing sinister.

    Are you in this category ? Get out there and re-train for the coming automation, don't sit on your ass and get run over by technological progress. If you stand still, and let your skills languish, you will get demolished. Previous examples include buggy-whip salesmen, VCR manufacturers, musket-producers, blacksmiths, punch-card paper providers, etc, etc. The list of dead technology is quickly replaced by new technology at the front-end of the product life cycle. Find a technology in which your skills can be valuable to the masses and apply them, don't cling to the past. If you're really brave, pick a technology in its infancy and take what you've learned in your career to optimize it. If (when?) the technology takes off you'll have a long stable, lucrative run and *then* you can sit back and relax knowing you're ahead of the curve instead of behind it.

    Now, an example to the contrary for semi-skilled labor : truck drivers. Truck drivers are getting more and more sparse. ( example : incentives to drive trucks and dedicated trucking sites like this one : http://www.findatruckingjob.com/ ). In this case you have an industry which is exploding with need, but cannot find enough resource (people) to do the job, so wages are increasing (perhaps not as fast as they should, but that's another point). Of course something needs to fill the gap, let's look at that triangle again : cost, time, resources. Our resources now cost more for the same amount of delivery time. The incentive for the first company to achieve cheaper costs is a lock on the market, and a more stable company to work for as an employee. How is this bad to achieve more worker stability, more $ and technological progress ?

    Edit: captcha was "obsolete", how fitting.

    1. Re:Robots and Industry 4.0 by dgatwood · · Score: 1

      Now, an example to the contrary for semi-skilled labor : truck drivers. Truck drivers are getting more and more sparse. ( example : incentives to drive trucks and dedicated trucking sites like this one : http://www.findatruckingjob.co... ). In this case you have an industry which is exploding with need, but cannot find enough resource (people) to do the job, so wages are increasing (perhaps not as fast as they should, but that's another point).

      That's why this will be one of the first categories of jobs that will be replaced by automation. Right now, the logistics companies are trying to shift more towards rail, but the long-term solution is to replace long-haul trucking with self-driving vehicles. Tesla is working on it for short-haul right now. In twenty years, there won't be any truck-driving jobs left.

      So it is actually a good thing that there are fewer and fewer people going into truck driving. That means fewer people will lose their jobs when inevitably makes their jobs obsolete. Yes, in the short term, it might make sense to take advantage of the wages while they are high, but if you do that, you'd better save every penny you can, knowing that the wage glut is only temporary, and that the wage collapse that will follow will be permanent.

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

  17. Africa has poor infrastructure, instability by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The #1 impediment to manufacturing moving itself to Africa is infrastructure. You need reliable transportation/supply channels, raw materials, and human resources to run a factory. Depending on where you go in Africa, you have resource shortages (water being a big one), human capital problems (corruption, poor education, poor public health/sanitation), and transportation problems (again, corruption, along with political instability). Asia worked out as well as it did wherever there were enough "strongman" dictator/autocrats to keep the rabble in line to get stuff done. It is telling that, in decades past, manufacturing was able to move to countries like Bangladesh but not someplace in Africa . . .

    You would be insane to push manufacturing into many parts of Africa where there are terrorist organizations, corrupt officials, revolutions, wars, and other trouble. Not worth it!

    The long-term trend will be the introduction of automated labor into markets that currently or formerly had exploited cheap labor. Automation will also be a way for "developed" countries to get their manufacturing capacity back when former "emerging markets" like China and India lose their appeal as cheap-labor markets. Nobody in their right mind will build automated factories in Africa, just as they aren't moving "traditional" factories there now.

  18. Nope. Wrong. by Qbertino · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It goes the other way around:
    We've banned child labour and established human rights because as a society as a whole we have decided that these are values worth investing in, especially since we easyly can. There is little point in having 12-year olds working in the mines, since it's way more benefitial to have a few grown men and huge machines do that. And send the children to school, to learn to build and maintain the machines when they grow up.

    The benefits far outweight the costs. It will be the same with UBI. Only getting there can be painful.

    --
    We suffer more in our imagination than in reality. - Seneca
    1. Re:Nope. Wrong. by Kjella · · Score: 1

      Meh, most people talk about UBI as a way to provide the basics for people that are or have become unemployable. The experience from pretty much every other benefit program is that people tend to become less employable that way, not more. If you wanted more student, you could do that today much simpler through better student benefits.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    2. Re:Nope. Wrong. by Raenex · · Score: 1

      I agree with you. UBI is a disaster waiting to happen. I believe in workfare, even if it involves sitting in a "work" room for 4 hours a day.

    3. Re:Nope. Wrong. by geekmux · · Score: 1

      Meh, most people talk about UBI as a way to provide the basics for people that are or have become unemployable. The experience from pretty much every other benefit program is that people tend to become less employable that way, not more. If you wanted more student, you could do that today much simpler through better student benefits.

      Yes, UBI will be essentially Welfare 2.0 for the masses, but you failed to realize that UBI is meant to supplement the unemployable, not the "less employable". Unemployable is what most humans on this planet will eventually be classified as automation and AI continue to develop in the next 30 - 50 years.

      And when I say 30 - 50 years, it's probably going to be more like 15 - 20. Greed will ensure that all it takes is "good enough" AI to replace humans as quickly as possible.

      Also, becoming a student (or making more of them) is going to become more and more pointless. If you're unemployable, what exactly are you studying and why? Although it would be nice, I highly doubt those who are funding UBI through taxation are going to chip in a few trillion more for just-for-fun education.

    4. Re:Nope. Wrong. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I agree with you. UBI is a disaster waiting to happen. I believe in workfare, even if it involves sitting in a "work" room for 4 hours a day.

      There are plenty of humans who sit around for hours every day and do nothing. We call them prisoners.

      I'd rather see UBI become a catalyst for human creativity rather than a means to a dead-end with that workfarce concept of yours.

    5. Re:Nope. Wrong. by Raenex · · Score: 1

      There are plenty of humans who sit around for hours every day and do nothing. We call them prisoners.

      I thought we called them NEETs. Prisoners spend 24/7 locked up, not 4 hours of "work" to receive benefits.

      I'd rather see UBI become a catalyst for human creativity rather than a means to a dead-end with that workfarce concept of yours.

      Ooh, is FOUR HOURS to have your basic needs met too much for people? Assuming 8 hours of sleep, that leaves TWELVE HOURS to be as "creative" as you want.

  19. Just what do you expect to build there ? by Crashmarik · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Even a rapid drop in robot prices would not lead to the replacement of workers by robots in the short term in Africa where countries lag far behind in terms of fast internet and other information and communications technologies. They also lack well-trained IT experts. Other problems include an unreliable power supply, high energy costs and high financing costs for new technologies. For these reasons, it would be difficult and expensive to integrate robots and other digital technologies into African production lines.

    The article describes the place as a location nobody sane would want to locate manufacturing. Low cost is important but only as it relates to high productivity. Capitalism depends on the ability of capital to increase production and profit.

  20. The thing people always forget by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You can replace a team of 5 expert doctors, 10 nurses and a group of psychologists per patients just by implementing a software that can do diagnosis better than doctors and a pill of correct medicine. This is possibly, because misdiagnosis causes a lot of work and damage to the patient and when it is avoided, we don't need that many people doing that hard work anymore.

    This is just a small example of something that is already happening in Africa and something that can be done without fancy robotics. You just need a normal computer, hell you can even use a cloud and a smart phone.

    1. Re:The thing people always forget by Harvey+Manfrenjenson · · Score: 1

      You can replace a team of 5 expert doctors, 10 nurses and a group of psychologists per patients just by implementing a software that can do diagnosis better than doctors and a pill of correct medicine.

      This post is so disconnected from reality that it's almost not worth responding to-- it's like saying you can replace a 747 with a jar of herring.

      Diagnosis is really a pretty small part of what doctors and nurses do all day. It can be an interesting part, and that's why TV shows tend to focus on it, but it's a minor percentage of the overall workload. Most of the time you know what's wrong with the patient. Anyway, there are already lots of algorithms and treatment guidelines to help "automate" the process of diagnosis. There may be an interesting role for software in helping to further automate this process, but any advances in that area are going to be incremental, not transformative.

      The only exception I can think of-- the only area where I can see software actually putting physicians out of work-- might be radiology. If I were a radiologist at the beginning of my career, I'd be a little bit worried.

    2. Re:The thing people always forget by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Indeed. Typical clueless technology fanatic. Also, as to diagnostic superiority, look at the failed medical diagnostics by IBM Watson published recently, that ended up killing people. Technology is not there even for the relatively clean and clear field of diagnostics. It is not clear whether it ever will get there enough to replace human experts. It may take some of their work, but if MDs have 10% less work, that will not matter much. Medicine may in fact be the single largest area pretty safe from "robots".

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  21. Africa has solvable problems by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Africa has problems but those are solvable. E.g. their farming level is from stone age. If they would use modern farming technology, they could increase their harvests a lot. But this would require working infrastructure.

    But this problem will be solved within 10 years. Why 10 years? Because after 10 years, we will run out of food. And at that point, especially China will be pouring a lot money into Africa to get food from there to Chinese markets. So they will fix the infra and fix the farming tech and that will give the boost to the whole continent.

    Unless global warming make that part of the globe inhabitable.

  22. #freedumbs #guns=freedumb! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    im just gonna shoot all them robots! yeehaw!!

  23. What a bulshit summary by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 1

    Robots already have replaced thousands of thousands of workers!
    Or do you realy think a german or swedish car is made by humans?
    Sure, there are still a few involved. But compare the number of workers of today with the late 1970s ... Probably it dropped ny a factor of 1000, most cdrtainly it is more than a factor of 100!

    --
    Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
  24. New apple picking robots... by raftpeople · · Score: 1

    Trials in Washington state, uses a vacuum kind of thing to grab the apple. It may not be ready today but the writing is on the wall.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

  25. Not really. Rare earth. by aepervius · · Score: 1

    "the cost of transportation (including local transportation to and from ports)"* the need for surrounding physical infrastructure (like reliable electricity)"

    You have a warped view of Africa, 19th century style. it ain't the shanty hut continent. This IS Africa : https://www.123rf.com/photo_71... and there are similar to other countries than Kenya. Yes when you go into rural country you don't see that cityscape, but between major country and capital there is even highway, major electricity production center, major university, major ports etc...

    * the need for surrounding social infrastructure (like a hierarchical work ethic)

    Which also exists in Africa. Or are you purporting African don't have any work ethic... ?
    No the real reason many firm are not in Africa, but in China are : 1) rare earth metal is more readily available today in China and combined with 2) China require for some raw material to have the stuff done locally and not export them (or do it in small quantity). They aren't dumb, both combined with cheap labor guarantee they get a lion share of what you cited.

    --
    C. Sagan : A demon haunted world:
    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0345409469/
    visit randi.org
  26. Re:Costs... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That's true in terms of labour cost. The agricultural sector seeks to automate it's operations as soon as possible in the industrialized countries. The issue is the technology, since many of these jobs currently requiring "human touch" are not easily automated until soft robotics and such are developed further. Nobody simply wants to do the heavy agriculture work anymore.

    Many of those points on regulation and rights are more complex as the political organization is the problem for some countries (China in particular), not the worker rights. Also infrastructure may be from the colonial times with no replacement available until hundreds of people die due to building collapse. There is simply not enough capital yet to make the changes that would improve the working conditions and increase the value add of the production at the local level.

  27. What a moron by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The "analyst" completely misses the point that robots don't care where they work. Sure, you can get stuff from Africa made by cheap labor. Or you can get stuff from 50 miles away made by a robot and pay no shipping or warehousing costs. Robots don't replace workers where workers are, they replace them in part by being in the most convenient possible spot for them to be. Because a robot in China costs neither more nor less than a robot just outside London.

  28. So long as Africans have more jobs than us by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    that's the important thing.

  29. Africa is a diverse continent of ~55 countries by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 3, Interesting

    So, sure, one may find specific combinations of infrastructure somewhere. For example:
    https://sourcingjournal.com/to...
    ""The next China is not a where, it's a how you do business," he said. "But Africa seems to be the emergence of the next China." Africa today is much like China was in the late 80s and early 90s, McRaith explained. There's little there, but the continent is developing. The first thing to consider, however, McRaith said, is that the sizable continent cannot be discussed as one region and understood as such. Africa is big enough to fit all of the world's major players within it: the United States, China, India, Eastern Europe, Japan, the U.K., Spain, France, Germany and Italy, among others. "Africa is of a scale we've never dealt with," he said."

    But it may be harder than you suggest. For your example of Nairobi, consider electrical infrastructure:
    http://www.afd.fr/en/reliabili...
    "The poor performance of Kenya's energy sector hampers the country's economic development and poverty reduction strategy: per capita electricity consumption is low, the country suffers relatively frequent power cuts, and small proportion of the population has access to electricity, while the average tariff in the last five years was $0.15 per kilowatt hour, one of the highest in sub-Saharan Africa."

    And:
    https://medium.com/@kyleschutt...
    "You will be robbed in Nairobi, inevitably. No one really talks about it because it is a bit awkward, but it should be discussed. You should know what to do. Except for my sister, everyone I know in Nairobi has been robbed, especially if they own a business. After all, the city's nickname is Nairobbery. ..."

    And:
    https://travel.state.gov/conte...
    "Terrorist threats remain in Kenya, including those aimed at U.S., Western, and Kenyan interests, within the Nairobi area, along the coast, and within the northeastern region of the country. Terrorist attacks have cumulatively resulted in the death and injury of hundreds of people since 2011. Over the last year, most incidents have occurred in the northeastern border region of the country; there have been no major attacks in Nairobi, Mombasa, or other major cities in the last two years. ...
    CRIME: Crime in Kenya is a regular occurrence and Kenyan authorities have limited capacity to deter and investigate such acts. Violent and sometimes fatal criminal attacks, including home invasions, burglaries, armed carjackings, muggings, and kidnappings can occur at any time. ..."

    Can large businesses set up generators (or locate near cheap hydropower perhaps), hire private security (ignoring some of those thefts mentioned were inside jobs), build gated compounds for executives and their families, and so on? Of course, but it all adds to the costs and risks of doing business.

    Work ethic is a complex topic -- and note I said "hierarchical" work ethic, meaning people's willingness to submit to a big corporation versus their desire to work for themselves and/or their family, village, or tribe. One study from 2011 comparing Chinese and South African work ethic:
    https://www.emeraldinsight.com...
    "South Africa is a developing country, and within this context, it is essential to be economically competitive and proactive. Various sources reveal that the national productivity has been traditionally low, and continues to remain low. Within the context of the international arena, this is unacceptable. If South Africa is to become a recognised role player in the internationa

    --
    A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
  30. Article is completely missing the point... by WebHikerOriginal · · Score: 2

    Why would they install robots in Africa? Manufacturing will move closer to the markets to reduce cost of logistics.

    1. Re:Article is completely missing the point... by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      Manufacturing will move closer to the markets to reduce cost of logistics.

      Our logistical infrastructure is really efficient. Transportation costs of goods are so low that it doesn't really drive decisions. As one example, it costs more in transportation costs for you to drive a mile to the store to pick up a toothbrush than it does to ship if from China.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  31. Longer Lines by bjwest · · Score: 2

    It will take quite a lot of time before robots become cheaper than workers in emerging markets such as Africa...

    How long will I have to wait for my burger in the drive through if it's made in Africa?

    --

    --- Keep the choice with the user..
  32. no not even close by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This fails completely to understand that a large part of the cost of manufacturing is other than labor costs. To start with shipping averages around 8% of the cost of items sold period, and around twice that for over seas shipping on average. So if you can have hte robots make it for 10% less you have saved money and don't have to worry as much about rising labor costs.

    We more or less know this to be what is happening because manufacturing is moving back to the US and using automation. We manufacture more now than ever before there are just no jobs in it anymore.

  33. If you think robots are taking over all our jobs by Tony+Isaac · · Score: 1

    ...you haven't built many automation systems.

    Automation, whether software or robotic, is HARD to get right.

    Even the stuff called "AI" is difficult and expensive to train, and any time you throw something new at it, you have to start over.

    Robots ARE taking over all our most mundane, routine jobs, yes. But they will not be able to take over more complex jobs for a long, long time.

  34. JOBS ARE STEALING MY ROBOTS by gurps_npc · · Score: 1

    What it comes down to is that I want a robot more than I want a job.

    The foolish unions are working hard to prevent robots from being created out of fear that jobs will vanish.

    --
    excitingthingstodo.blogspot.com
  35. It's not about robots by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's about automation. It's creeping up all around us. Things that let less numbers of employers process the same number of transactions.

    Automation is so much more than robots doing stuff humans do. Just associating the word robot to automation limits your thinking.

    Trying to say this isn't a serious problem we going to have to face is pretty foolish. We need to tackle the effects of automation now, get in front of it, before it's a problem. If we don't, like climate change, which we failed to get in front of, it will also be a huge problem.

  36. Five Interwoven Economies by Paul+Fernhout · · Score: 2

    Thanks for your comment, and while those are all good points, I feel they a missing the forest for the trees.

    While you are right for one type of gift economy, there are at least two types of gift economy. The first is as you outlined about maintaining social status in a social network (like for some Native American tribes that used the Potlatch ceremony). But there is also another form (or aspect) of gift economy based around volunteering semi-anonymously to give back to the larger community -- like with all the people contributing comments to Slashdot for free, people who work on Wikipedia (for all its flaws), people who write FOSS, and so on. Certainly there can be mixes of the two motivations, so a complex topic. There are poor people now in an exchange-dominant economy and there might be status poor people in a gift economy (even if they get enough to eat).

    You use the word "we" in your defense of the exchange economy. And I agree exchange transactions can have various benefits for specific individuals and so indirectly to societies. But the reason to soften the harshness of the exchange economy and all its contracts and so on is precisely because there is no "we" in it. Exchange is about individuals (or organizations) making contracts with each other -- usually ignoring externalities to other individuals (e.g. pollution, meltdown risk, market failure) or leaving many people out of the benefits (unless the government steps in with regulations and taxes and such). With a growing concentration of wealth and a growing rich/poor divide, and also with vast amounts of taxes going towards militarism to protect specific commercial interests (e.g. "War is a Racket"), "we" is a more and more problematical term to use in describing the benefits of a capitalist society. Thus ideas like "Social Credit" by C. H Douglas to overlay the exchange economy with a basic income:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
    "Douglas disagreed with classical economists who recognised only three factors of production: land, labour and capital. While Douglas did not deny the role of these factors in production, he considered the âoecultural inheritance of societyâ as the primary factor. He defined cultural inheritance as the knowledge, techniques and processes that have accrued to us incrementally from the origins of civilization (i.e. progress). Consequently, mankind does not have to keep "reinventing the wheel"."

    Most 3D printers are fairly limited today. We are still far away from Star Trek replicators. That said, they are getting better every year. And a big advantage of 3D printers, especially ones that print in metal or other durable materials, is that you no longer have to keep an inventory of mass-produced parts around "just in case". You can also make more efficient designs in terms of mass usage when multiple types of parts can be printed together in custom ways. Combine 3D printers with robots and CNC machine and mini forgers and so on in a small shop, and there is a lot of potential for people being able to opt out of a lot of exchange transactions (if maybe not all). Likewise, local knowledge and better sensors make it possible for people to avoid doctors and dentists to some degree (including by eating better or avoiding stresses and exercising more and getting more sleep so on) -- so another way or reducing the need for exchange by subsistence.

    Yes there is the bike shed affect for planning in any organization, where less knowledgeable people focus on less important details while glossing over stuff that matters a lot more. But government programs still made it possible for Neil Armstrong to walk on the Moon. And government programs run a weather satellite system predicting storms. And government programs in the 1930s (CCC) built many of the trails and public amenities we still enjoy today in the USA. And government funded research supports many of the fundamental breakthroughs in science and medicine that we all benefit from. And (for g

    --
    A 21st century issue: the irony of technologies of abundance in the hands of those still thinking in terms of scarcity.
  37. Not much chance in Africa by seven+of+five · · Score: 1

    Who's going to put up a $1B factory in a place where the corruption/instability is so bad? The few cents you'd save in low labor costs would be eaten up by bribes, replacing stolen equipment, etc. And you'd never see payback. Even if human labor is dirt cheap there, robots will eventually become cheaper, so what's the point?

  38. Bump! by Qbertino · · Score: 1

    You took the reply out of my mouth. UBI is not yet another benefit program. UBI is/will be abundance and wealth by robots and automation spread through the population so we don't have a revolt on our hands.

    --
    We suffer more in our imagination than in reality. - Seneca
  39. c6gunner SHOOTS HIMSELF down, lol... apk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    c6gunner SHOOTS HIMSELF down as your FAKEname's on a post impersonating me https://linux.slashdot.org/com... & worse is you altering /. user's words there.

    All because I challenged you to show you do better work and you can't TALKER after you tried to mock me https://linux.slashdot.org/com... .

    SEEING YOU DEMAND PROOF OF OTHERS "I've yet to see you provide any evidence of that." by c6gunner on Monday March 15, 2010 @10:02PM (#31490942) I DEMANDED IT OF YOU & YOU FAILED BIGMOUTH, lol!

    * You're online FAKENAME trash c6gunner & a childish dishonest punk + a DO-NOTHING "ne'er-do-well" CHATTERING dolt w/ ZERO to show for yourself other than your BLOWHARD bullshit, lol - you LOSE!

    APK

    P.S.=> You say hosts are shit here https://slashdot.org/comments.... ?

    50++ /.ers & security pros + RESULTS SAY DIFFERENTLY loser:

    Proof's here from /.ers https://slashdot.org/comments.... https://slashdot.org/comments.... https://slashdot.org/comments.... https://slashdot.org/comments.... https://slashdot.org/comments.... https://slashdot.org/comments.... from SECURITY PROS https://slashdot.org/comments.... & REAL RESULTS w/ hosts working vs. threats https://slashdot.org/comments.... so EAT YOUR WORDS & CHOKE on them... apk

  40. c6gunner SHOOTS HIMSELF down, lol... apk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    c6gunner SHOOTS HIMSELF down as your FAKEname's on a post impersonating me https://linux.slashdot.org/com... & worse is you altering /. user's words there.

    All because I challenged you to show you do better work and you can't TALKER after you tried to mock me https://linux.slashdot.org/com... .

    SEEING YOU DEMAND PROOF OF OTHERS "I've yet to see you provide any evidence of that." by c6gunner on Monday March 15, 2010 @10:02PM (#31490942) I DEMANDED IT OF YOU & YOU FAILED BIGMOUTH, lol!

    * You're online FAKENAME trash c6gunner & a childish dishonest punk + a DO-NOTHING "ne'er-do-well" CHATTERING dolt w/ ZERO to show for yourself other than your BLOWHARD bullshit, lol - you LOSE!

    APK

    P.S.=> You say hosts are shit here https://slashdot.org/comments.... ?

    50++ /.ers & security pros + RESULTS SAY DIFFERENTLY loser:

    Proof's here from /.ers https://slashdot.org/comments.... https://slashdot.org/comments.... https://slashdot.org/comments.... https://slashdot.org/comments.... https://slashdot.org/comments.... https://slashdot.org/comments.... from SECURITY PROS https://slashdot.org/comments.... & REAL RESULTS w/ hosts working vs. threats https://slashdot.org/comments.... so EAT YOUR WORDS & CHOKE on them... apk

  41. c6gunner = "Run, Forrest: RUN!!!"... apk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    c6gunner SHOOTS HIMSELF down w/ his FAKEname on a post impersonating me https://linux.slashdot.org/com... & w/ c6gunner altering /. user's words there.

    All since I challenged c6gunner to show better work than mine he did & you can't c6gunner "ne'er-do-well"!

    Right after you tried to mock me 1st https://linux.slashdot.org/com... for no good reason & I didn't bug you @ all!

    YOU DEMAND PROOF "I've yet to see you provide any evidence of that." by c6gunner on Monday March 15, 2010 @10:02PM (#31490942) ?

    I DEMANDED IT OF YOU & YOU FAILED!

    * You're FAKENAME trash you childish dishonest punk + YOU are a DO-NOTHING "ne'er-do-well" CHATTERING dolt w/ ZERO to show for yourself!

    APK

    P.S.=> You say hosts are shit here https://slashdot.org/comments.... ?

    50++ /.ers & security pros + RESULTS SAY DIFFERENT:

    Proof's here from /.ers https://slashdot.org/comments.... https://slashdot.org/comments.... https://slashdot.org/comments.... https://slashdot.org/comments.... https://slashdot.org/comments.... https://slashdot.org/comments.... from SECURITY PROS https://slashdot.org/comments.... & REAL RESULTS w/ hosts working vs. threats https://slashdot.org/comments.... so EAT YOUR WORDS... apk