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Smartphone Shipments Expected To Drop for the Third Consecutive Year in 2019 (idc.com)
Research firm IDC projects: The smartphone market continues to be challenged and 2019 is projected to experience its third consecutive year of declining shipments. Worldwide smartphone volumes are forecast to fall by 0.8% in 2019 with volumes dipping to 1.39 billion. However, the smartphone market will begin to pick up momentum this year with year-over-year growth of 2.3% expected in the second half of the year. Over the long term, smartphone shipments are forecast to reach 1.54 billion units in 2023.
The current year is expected to witness a new high for technological innovation with the introduction of foldable devices and 5G smartphones. Marketing buzz around 5G is in its early stages but expected to ramp up quickly. And while use cases for upgrading to a 5G device/service remain unclear, it is evident that after 2019 the adoption will begin to attain significant numbers. IDC currently expects 5G smartphone shipments to account for roughly 1 out of every 4 smartphones shipped globally in 2023.
The current year is expected to witness a new high for technological innovation with the introduction of foldable devices and 5G smartphones. Marketing buzz around 5G is in its early stages but expected to ramp up quickly. And while use cases for upgrading to a 5G device/service remain unclear, it is evident that after 2019 the adoption will begin to attain significant numbers. IDC currently expects 5G smartphone shipments to account for roughly 1 out of every 4 smartphones shipped globally in 2023.
Maybe now we can split PDAs and cell phones apart once again.
People still use smartphones?
it has all the pizza place numbers built-in and always redirects to creimer tweets and self-aggrandizing puffery
It's not like fewer people want smartphones...
What is happening, is that there is decreasing value in getting the latest model. It makes a lot more sense to wait three years before getting a new phone than it did before... on top of higher prices, people are waiting.
It will be interesting to see what this new slower wave of smart phone replacements as primary market looks like... will phone makers start to not release new models quite so often?
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
5G is the future, but there's just no way to take advantage of it in any meaningful way. Sure, it's faster, but I can't really use the existing LTE speed as I could theoretically blow through my data cap in just a couple of minutes, and even the largest available data caps in my country quite quickly. additionally, there's just nothing I would do on a phone that would need that kind of speed.
It's great that they're going that way, but it won't make me rush out and buy a new phone. What WOULD make me buy a new phone is if they had some innovative new feature, but that ship seems to have sailed as every phone in the last 5 years has fewer features than the one before it. (removal of IR ports, headphone jacks, replaceable batteries, HDMI output. Phone screens that claim to be larger, but are smaller due to ridiculous aspect ratios. Materials that are designed to make the phones more breakable). "upgrading" is now seen as a risk to see what you'll be forced to lose just to get a slightly faster processor and an up to date operating system and meanwhile the prices of phones are skyrocketing through the roof (the Note 9 is more than double the price of the note 4, yet has a smaller screen, no ir port, no replaceable battery, and an easily shattered super slippery glass back). I'm not yet convinced that "foldable" is the new feature that would do it for me though, it has potential, but I'm just not sold on it yet.
What phone manufacturers need to do if they want people to keep upgrading is to make the new phone feel like it's actually BETTER than the one they are getting rid of, not just newer.
How many smartphones do you want to sell?
Two for every single human?
Then you won't be able to sell more than 14B devices. 5B is a more accurate estimate.
Then the year after you'll sell only a few millions to replace the broken ones.
This thing of the continuous growth is really really bul15h!t!
Sent as ripples into the electromagnetic field. No single photon has been harmed in the process.
Why don't you want my money?
Don't really need any more.
The old ones without a data plan become useful controllers of various things or small streaming devices hooked to the wireless router.
4G is already largely "fast enough". I don't care about streaming an HD movie on my freaking phone. The problems I have with 4G are occasional problems getting a connection inside a big box store. 5G isn't going to solve that, and it's a pretty minor problem anyway.
Smart phones reached "good enough" about 3-4 years ago, and recent models don't offer much more. Even a phone from 2012 is still at least somewhat usable if you don't install bloatware like Facebook on it. It still functions as a phone and a browser, though there's an increasing amount of apps that won't run. But the fact that a 7 year old phone is still usable means that some people just don't need to upgrade if they don't have to.
The lamentations from executives being disabused of the notion of infinite growth could not be heard due to a missing dongle. Just one more unintended consequence after removing the headphone jack.
1 Nothing high from here.
2 super expensive, super easily breakable devices which are meant to replace tablets which are barely used nowadays?
3 Really? Like we don't already have 4G which is more than enough for most of people and still inaccessible for the rest (either no infrastructure or extremely expensive)?
Sorry, as for smartphones we reached "good enough" several years ago and all the fuzz about new tech is mostly a fizzling.
I have a Oneplus One I bought when it first came out. It still works fine with LineageOS, and I still get 2 days of battery life since I don't have any non-essential apps on it.
It has a headphone jack and expandable storage. I will never buy a phone without both of these things.
2024 can't come soon enough for you, eh?
Really? Like we don't already have 4G which is more than enough for most of people
Much of it depends on to what extent the greater theoretical capacity of 5G translates into higher monthly data usage quotas offered by cellular ISPs. "Unlimited" plans in USA carry a big asterisk about hotspot use.
Stop making shit. Samsung S5 is "the last phone". People still buy it for Lineage OS, overall construction quality, removable battery and lack of courage. Damn thing also appearantly works underwater. I got Xperia XA2 Ultra for Sailfish OS just so I can spoof and kill Android at will. Seriously considering joining any project goal of which is to poison any data being collected. Not for fun. Out of principle. Give Google both fingers. And I fucking hate shit that Sony pulls.
They can take their ultra thin foldable phones and shove em right up their ass. Now THAT is courage.
It's hilarious how uninformed and stupid Kendall must be yet still promoting his idiocy as if it mattered. Lol.
Oh, I agree that shareholders demand growth. And companies will make every effort to accommodate; really, they will innovate like nobody's business!
Yet if consumer demand just isn't there, and innovation stalls, companies simply may not be able to perform above the level of national or international growth (however you choose to define that). No matter what they want.
Really, do you think that Kodak didn't want to grow? How about Xerox, Sears, Toys 'R' Us? How about Ashton-Tate, Borland, WordPerfect Corp., DEC, Tandem, Sperry, Burroughs, MAI, Thinking Machines, nCUBE, and a thousand others? I know that some will want to argue the specifics but my point isn't about specifics. My point is that there is a difference between wanting something and being able to achieve that something.
There are also plenty of people who want something but aren't prepared for the sacrifices needed to get it. There's another group of people who will claim they want something but actually want something else.
Why spend $1k or more every year? Bring down the prices and I'm sure volumes will rise. I think 500-800 is the proper price range for smart phones
And broke Commies are going to be buying phones hand over fist? Probably going to be more worried about getting food then buying phones.
Market saturation, and the price of phones now, is causing consumers to KEEP what they have. Phones of the last few generations, if the battery holds out, are "good enough" for 99% of consumers usage. Once the $1,000 barrier was broken, more people are HOLDING onto their phones longer. Why do you think the "rush" to make a folding screen, no matter how stupid they look.