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Red Hat IPO Price Range Increase
saurus wrote in to tell us that an announcement has appearedon E*trade proclaiming that the IPO share price for Red Hat will now
be $12-$14. Everyone's getting really anxious to see what happens.
Brace yourself. Update: 08/11 12:32 by H : It looks like the info was pulled-anyone have more details? Post below.
Cant to see what will happen myself
First I don't get a letter..... and now this!
how do you find out how many shares you've been allocated?
It still annoys me and now this. I'm going to end up waiting a month or more for things to cool down enough to buy. this sucks!
I thought about it and decided to cancel my order for redhat. I really doubt it will perform well in the first week. Sometime before september it will dip below the IPO price, and that will be a good time to buy.
This advice is generally solid when, it comes to a HOT IPO. I'm not talking about some lame dot com, but an honest to goodness, gotta have it now stock. The first hour (when it hits the market) will be the upward surge. By the second hour it will be highly violatile (+-10points) and then by the third,fourth hour it will settle to about where it should be. These hours correspond to when the IPO actually hits the market, probably late morning, noonish and when the market actually closes. Buying it back in two weeks is also good advice, as the price will settle to what it's really worth to the numnums on wall street.
Sometimes when E*Trade announces a new pricing plan for an IPO they require everyone to resubmit their request. Sometimes the window from the time the announcement is made to the time you can no longer resubmit entries can be less than 4 hours. It looks they are not going to do that in this case, but make sure to keep an eye on E*Trade if you are serious about your investment.
You just described daytrading, aka gambling, though you outright contradict yourself (for the better) in the last paragraph...
You should *NOT* think of investing as trying to "outguess other people's moves." You are buying a small piece of a company...you are becoming a partial owner. You understand the company's product, and you understand their business model (how they make money). You believe the company will be fruitful - they'll sell a useful product/service, they will gain marketshare, they will make money, and they will grow. Others will recognize this, will invest as well, the company will continue to be worth more, and the stock price will go up.
A bit healthier and long term way to think of investing...
In other words, there was some pent-up demand the first couple days, and since then the volumes have been very low. People aren't speculating wildly in Be stock like they did in the past with Netscape, Yahoo, Amazon, etc. I doubt Be's stock price will change much until something happens to attract investors (like if Dell started offering BeOS as an option on Desktops) or to scare them away (like an earnings report, which almost certainly will still show losses).
I imagine you would feel very smart.
A 10x increase in 10 years is about a 0.46% annual increase. This is considerably less than inflation. 20% is an immensely better return.
-konstant
"just about every stock is going up in the next 36 years" That's only true for companies that are still in business. Believe me, I'd rather see Be and Red Hat be huge successes than any other company, but it's reckless to put to many eggs in one basket. Also, single stock prices can fluctuate wildly and you can easily get screwed by buying at the wrong time. At a minimum, make regular purchases of the same dollar amount of stock to take advantage of dips in price. Better yet, make periodic investments in two or three stock-based mutual funds, at least until you have a portfolio of at least $100K. You really can't get adequate diversification buying single stocks if you only have a few thousand dollars to invest.
i think your math is a little bit off there.
a 10x increase over 10 years works out to about a 26% annual increase
completely off topic here, but:
how does one get bc to do nth roots?
What you're seeing is that hardly anyone is willing to sell at a loss this soon. The stockholders all paid more than $6/share, and the price won't drop further unless they get scared that the company won't survive.
If it fairs poorly thats a good thing, because then you can buy shares at the reduced price.
You can't compete with Microsoft. Period. They are not always the smartest, they may not have the best OS, yadda yadda yadda. But they _are_ ruthless, effective, and persistent. This RedHat IPO and the nerd frenzy it is causing is a joke. Listen carefully if you're smart: Sell _quick_. RedHat may make a huge leap the first day, hell even for a few days or weeks. But get your profit off of the hype and ignorance of others and _get out_. You may be able to make a quick profit, but this is not a long term stock - they won't make money. Sorry for the dose of reality, but unlike some others, I've learned from history and am not doomed to repeat the same mistakes. I love Linux as much as the next guy, but I'm not going to let that cloud my judgement.
Great reply. :-)
$100,000?!?!? Put $100 each in four different direct enrollment DRiPs, that's plenty diversification
I think it's obvious we're both Fools ;-) Though you forgot to mention with just as few as 4 stocks (to diversify) you should be able to beat the market average, which is better than 90% of mutual funds!!
(Yes, I am the original Anonymous Coward...though wish I had some way to prove it...maybe it's time I set up my own account)
Its a lot easier to see the top of the curve at the end of the day looking back than it is to acutally impliment your strategy. Maybe I should keep my broker on one line and a phone psychic on the other.
Flipping is frowned on because the underwriters have a vested interest in keeping the stock price higher than the issue price. Flipping makes their job harder and more expensive. I think there is a paper about this in Journal of Finance about 1996 or so.
You'll never get filled at $14.25 Maybe wait a couple of days for the hype to wear off - just like Tibco (TIBX).
% echo 2 16^p | dc
65536
This is something I tried, unsuccessfully, to clarify with Etrade. By email, they sent me an explanation that didn't quite answer my question. The SEC documents say that Red Hat reserved 800,000 shares for the designated shares program. I would take this to mean that these 800,000 shares should be allocated to people who got the Red Hat invitation. I don't know how many of these people there are: 8,000 seems like a lot, and judging from the Slashdot polls, lots of people who got the invitation were ineligible or rejected for one reason or another. I'd think that Red Hat wouldn't have grossly under-allocated shares for this program. I also suspect that many people only put in indications for 100 shares. So by this logic, it doesn't appear unlikely that people could get >100 share allocations. The alternative would be that Etrade passes out 100 share blocks to the invited people, then lumps the remainder of the 800,000 shares and all the undesignated shares for distribution to other Etrade customers. I guess that's possible, but I'd wonder why Red Hat would set up the rules that way, since it would seem to simply benefit Etrade and its customers at the expense of the invitees.
Can anyone else verify that they've been allocated shares already?? The most recent news I saw was that the IPO would not even be priced until tomorrow morning... so I don't see how they could have determined any allocations yet. If the 200-share allocation is for real, it is certainly good news for anyone who indicated interest for >100 shares.
I'd say the chance of you getting 4000 shares is just about zilch. My best guess... assuming the 800,000 shares are distributed only among people in the directed share group (this is not guaranteed, as some Etrade reps seem convinced otherwise), and that a couple thousand people signed up for this program, is that people asking for >100 shares could probably get a few hundred, perhaps 1000, but 4000 is right out.
since April 12 high. Or, maybe you don't even know what the ISDEX index is.
I read the above pages with increasing saddness. The get-rich-quick stupidity which by now underlies the entire thread is bad for both slashdot and linux. So, I ask that you consider this:
If you have $1,000 to invest, you can "invest" in RedHat's IPO, and the most highly energized portion of your brain will be dreaming every half-hour to every fortnight on where your gamble stands, relative to the same inclinations and willingnesses of the mob with whom you are competing, and yet I argue that, even if you "make" new "money," in the long run you will loose
because the imaginary get-in get-out "profits" of *trade timing* is NOTHING (total frustration intended) compared to the profit you stand to gain by simply sending that same $1,000 to the Free Software Foundation, where by hard actual work it would be applied to creating actual new wealth for everyone, including probably well over $1,000 of new programming wealth, freely available to yourself and your children.
In effect, as an "investment," the RedHat frenzy is a linux brain drain (not unlike the brain drain that contributed to the collapse of Russia). It is a venture into a dog-eat-dog zero-sum game, where relative to "your bet," the programmer standing next to you is your enemy. The investment in the FSF is on the other hand more of a true investment in creating new actual programming wealth (as opposed a "return" on trading $1,ooo worth of paper with your emeny). The wealth created by the FSF is wealth which you can use, and from which both you and RedHat profits well into the future.
Yes, you can argue that by sending your stockbroker $1,ooo, you are helping RedHat create new wealth for everyone else too, just like the FSF. But, I remind you that the real heavy hitters, who will be *lending* the real capital to be used by RedHat, and who will be be secured by as yet unissued stock based a discount of the settled price, will get along just fine, whether you place a $1,000 bet with your stock broker or not.
From one pauper to another, I plead that as many of you as possible stand back from the zero-sum feeding frenzy that is about to begin, and invest instead in something where you stand to enjoy a return of real wealth, like the FSF. It creates something that reproduces, by new creativity and expansion, and not by the numeric profits of imaginary self-betterment in a zero-sum game, as proposed by the RedHat IPO.
Those of you who understand will forgive me.
This just in from E*Trade: Please note, should the Red Hat IPO price above or below the original filing range of $10-12/share, customers will be required to submit a NEW Conditional Offer for shares. This offering has not yet been priced or declared effective. E*TRADE will update the IPO Bulletin and send an account alert in the event that this happens. Does this mean we all have to resubmit conditional offers anyway? And what about us on the West Coast - will we miss out on a resubmittal if we wake up before 5am PST? When do IPO pricings usually occur?
Yea but NO ONE that has money gives a RHATs ass about Be and an IPO for a free music site is just plain stupid. RedHat is actually an interesting company with a product that people care about.
I was told by an etrade representative that there are _no_ fees on the ipo. My understanding is that they make their money on a cut of the total ipo sale.
http ://www.smeal.psu.edu/student/brh118/Financial.Life .Cycle/MicrosoftIPO.html
BTW: I had trouble seeing the text. You may have to view the source and cut the last section to a local file. I was using Netscape, humm? document must have been generated from MS-Office with the compatibility switch set....off! ;-)
I'm buying my stock, and keeping it. Not going to sell on the 11th, 12th, 1999, 2000, 2005. I'm not going to get rich off of it, it might go bust, but I like Linux, and I think it's a good investment. In the above mentioned paper it said MSFT started at 25.75 and ended at 27.75, not what you would call a big opener. Let's see...What is it selling at now?, how many splits has it been though?
I agree wholeheartedly that RedHat is in the business of creating new wealth, in the sense of expanding technology. In that sense, it has a huge long term advantage over something like, say amazon or something.
And I applaud you immensely for your understanding of the issue and for your contribution.
I guess my overall wish was that we could find some other way to compensate the contribution of individual effort toward the commonweal, such as your effort and committment, without reducing you to risking hard saved cash by tossing it into a parasitic pit with day traders, etc. That's a problem with our society, which I don't know how to address.
It's more than just a day-to-day versus a longer view thing. The essential characteristic of wealth, in the sense of commonweal not cash, is its ability to reproduce, to carry man foward to higher levels of communication and technology.
Maybe what I want to say is that the time might come that there is more usuable wealth on one plastic disc of linux than there is in any amount of fictitious cash in a fictitious account in a fictitious bank I have ever owned. (My German grandparents told stories which were not to be believed re Weimar Germany, hardly sixty years ago.) Although I admit that cash will certainly buy food today, a disc of linux has the ability, as key part in a future technological chain, to produce the food which the cash buys.
Although cash can be used to get a person's attention, because of its inability to reproduce anything but more of itself, the real wealth is not in a here-today gone-tomorrow bank account. In the alternative, real wealth is in a linux cd. In my view, it is this powerful capacity to reproduce, recreating both itself and its offspring, that gives the linux-gnu a power which Microsoft or Amazon can only dream of having.)
Best of luck tomorrow, and long after. Most of all, I appreciate your understanding.
I like how the logo page for RHAT in ETRD's ipo center is named RED HAT TOMBSTONE
My guy at Fidelity said the same thing. Only thing available is the SUSIP #. What sort of high are you expecting today?
Isn't it funny that the price on a RH distro has ALREADY RISEN everywhere and the company is just announcing the IPO. This is a GOOD thing ?? What was free software is now for profit, soon they will be appying for patents and claiming they 'own' the contents of their OS. This sounds just like the privitization of internic into the crappy dot.com people. Now they claim they own the DB which contains information the government REQUIRED us to provide in order to register a domain on a public utility. The airlines tried that and the federal govt. said, NO WAY to releasing information that is collected by requirement. I gave away my US domain and now use CX to HELL with COM.ORG.NET etc...
let the games begin: Your Conditional Offer was received on Aug 11 1999 10:08AM ET.
Since the Red Hat IPO re-priced, E*Trade is once again accepting conditional offers as of 10:30ET 8/11. It's supposed to start trading this afternoon.
Hmm, I received the "Red Hat IPO Update" last night in my E*TRADE account alerts that said I would have to re-submit a conditional offer if and when the IPO was re-priced. But I was assured that I would be notified of this fact at the time of or prior to the re-pricing. I have yet to receive ANYTHING in my E*TRADE account alerts. If not for /. and ColPanek's post, I could still be thinking I was part of the IPO while precious time slipped away....
I did both the directed shares program and the lottery program, but there doesn't seem to be a way to re-indicate for the directed shares. I.E. it is not asking for the address that I received my directed shares letter at. Anyone know how what's going on?
e*trade is no longer accepting conditional offers
If you missed this mornings window, TRY to give them a call and if you were in the community distribution make sure you tell them and go for it and TRY to get into the regular distribution if you WERENT. 1-800-stocks-5 if you were in the community distribution you MIGHT want to try getting through via the telephone number that you got in your invitation letter
Don't worry about entering anything more than 14 dollars. the price has already been set at 14, and will not change until the stock starts trading.
I called the number in the Letter, and after
waiting in line for 20 mins, including hearing that
indications are closed, a receptionist answered finally, i went through again, heard
the 'indications are closed' thing again and finally made
it to a broker who took my info and accepted it!!!!
ACT NOW! GET IN WHILE YOU CAN AND NEVER GIVE UP!!!!
Greetings,
Stroucki
The etrade alert was received AFTER it was too late to reconfirm conditional offers. That's etrade's internal mail system! They screwed up, but aren't letting anyone reconfirm. On the phone, they're blaming Redhat!
This is outrageous!!
Is that the same company that used to make C-64 software? I thought they went belly up LONG ago...
werd.
Werd.
Hmmm. Is java really buzzword compliant???? Find out for sure.
:)
Werd.
Be, Inc. is down to $6.00 - it's IPO price. It doesn't appear that it -can- fall any further, it's just been sliding along at the same price, for several days now.
MP3.com's shares are still falling. I doubt they'll recover any time soon, it seems like a fairly terminal plunge to me, losing several dollars a day, every day.
Other tech shares are either being postponed, are out this week after being postponed, or just doing miserably all round. From what I can gather, that is true (to some extent) of the stock market as a whole.
If Red Hat does well this week, I would be amazed. Mind you, if it -DOES- do well this week, shareholders are likely to treat it like gold dust. If Red Hat can be one of the few tech stocks to buck the trend, expect to see them fly through the roof.
It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
All I can say is I wish you luck, and luck to all the rest of the Red Hat investors. Personally, I think you'll need all the luck you can get, but then Red Hat might strike gold, too. That's just it - you don't know. But I do hope it goes well for you, for all my concerns.
It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
Doesn't necessarily mean it's the best thing to invest in. Certainly, the current share prices are rock-bottom. I'd only invest in Be if: (a) they promoted their products, for a change, (b) at least one major manufacturer invested in it, and (c) we see at least one store with BeOS on the shelves.
It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
$ bc -l
e(l(2) / 12)
1.05946309435929526455 [12th root of 2]
l() is natural log, e() is exponential.
Four of the reasons that you can't compete with Microsoft is that they are ruthless, effective, persistent, and have an unwavering devotion to the Pope.
And if you don't believe me, we'll have to put you into... the Comfy Chair!
IANAFA (I Am Not A Financial Advisor), but my understanding is that this practice is derisively known as "flipping" and is a good way to guarantee that you will have a much more difficult time getting in on future IPOs.
Look to: http://www.etrade.com/cgi-bin/gx.cgi/AppLogic+IPON ews?INFOTYPE=IPO_MKTW_DAILY&IPONEWSHDR=+ IPO%20News+&IPONEWSIMG=ipo_cbsmktw.gif&IPOIMAGELIN K=http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsro om.htx?dist=etrade
Maurice W. Hilarius Voice: (778) 347-9907
IANAFA (I Am Not A Financial Advisor), but my understanding is that this practice is derisively known as "flipping" and is a good way to guarantee that you will have a much more difficult time getting in on future IPOs.
You're right that flipping is frowned upon, but it shouldn't be. You'd think there would be at least one person on Wall Street conversant with supply and demand...
The "bubble" phenomenon you see with hot IPOs would be *reduced* if flipping was encouraged. For every single person who watches a stock's rise and tries to sell when that rise slows, their sale itself acts to brake the excessive rise of the stock price.
If every IPO was aggressively watched by people waiting to dump their stock the moment it went up too unrealistically, well, it wouldn't go up unrealistically at all.
I didn't even get an alert. But again, thanks to /. and my paranoia, I didn't miss it. This kinda seems like yet another way ETrade is trying to screw everyone over. It's like it's policy.
Gordon
you know that all the interest in RHAT are causing the price to increase... hope they do well, cause they'll be the benchmark for va and any other linux based systems/products that are gathering speed...
three can keep a secret, if two are dead - benjamin franklin
"utter chaos"
That's that's an understatement:)
Awesome!
Agreed no one will retire... Figure you can get your hands on 1000 shares at the orginal low of $10. Lets say according to analyst 4 weeks ago (prior to the current sick wallstreet), RHAT goes up to $70 by day two.
Ok you sell, you got $70,000, you pay etrade, and pay Uncle Sam %28 YES! in taxes.
Only chance of anyone becoming a millionaire from RHAT is to invest early, continue to purchase stock as you can afford over the course of 4 or so years. During that time, bust your OpenSource coding ass:) to support them and their distribution. You gotta good chance.
What I am waiting to see is a group of Open Source coders see an opportunity and just say "Hey RHAT, will bust our ass on projectX, totally opensource, all we ask for is nnnn shares of stock". If enough coders, with the right motivation ( $$$ + freecode = happyme ) could really make a fortune, retire early, and view pron newsgroups all day:)
hehe..
Awesome!
For example, note this: "Extrinsic rewards can erode intrinsic interest. People who see themselves as working for money, approval or competitive success find their tasks less pleasurable, and therefore do not do them as well."
Yea, I find that when I am solely motivated by the posibility of being extremely wealthy, my productivity decreases, I show up to work late, I refuse to service customers.. hell I'm just a total wreck.
Sorry, just trying to ease the tension on this message board:)
Awesome!
It's a craps shoot, I signed up for about 2000, I could get em all, I could get 2, depends on how much etrade can fill my order.
-Ben
-Ben
bensmith@biz1.net
RedHat is basically the commercial face of linux. right now in the suit world linux==RedHat.
Be has such a low share of the OS market, and not a whole lot of people are talking about it, you hear more about Amiga these days than you do Be. Linux on the other hand, is everywhere, and that's good for RedHat.
Of course, maybe I'm trying to convince myself I'm right, I got alot of money riding on this thing.
-Ben
-Ben
bensmith@biz1.net
18 to 20 bucks I'd say, if it goes above that, wait to buy it in 2 weeks.
I'm just a geek, not the Amazing Creskin.
-Ben
-Ben
bensmith@biz1.net
a) they can't until silence period is over b) Intel is investing in it (sounds major to me huh? c) J&R music/computer world here in NY has BeOS on its shelves
---
well if MS is competing with redhat and redhat doesn't fight back, they'll lose. Remember, redhat is a public company so it's important what they do-not what Linus says
---
I submitted the following to Ask Slashdot earlier today but it probably won't appear
"Should RedHat cancel or postpone their IPO? IPO's in general and "internet related" (in the thinking of the general public) IPO's in
particular aren't doing as well as hoped in the past few days. If RedHat pulled their IPO and conducted a private sale just to those who got "the e-mail", could they get $15 or so per share, stockholders who would be more sympathetic with company goals that don't wring out every last penny in possible short term profits at the expense of Linux and Open Source, and an incredibly enthusistic response from people who
understand the product and the market that they could point to later on in talking with the general financial community who think that computers have pushbutton cupholders?"
I still think it's a good idea for them to be careful who they sell to.
Another possible Linux-related stock buy could be Corel. They were on CNBC today talking about a Corel Linux distro with a "Windows-like" desktop. It's explained better on their website --linux.corel.com -- but they were talking for the general public in the TV interview. This could mean come the Xmas '99 shopping season a bunch of e-Machines down at circuit city running Word Perfect and 'net surfing software on a user-friendly looking desktop with Linux underneath, selling cheaper than the iMacs and the Windows machines. World domination may be in Santa's sack.
I see even classic Slashdot is now pretty much unusable on dial up anymore.
grrr. i'll go and filter out these kind of news.
/ i got real good bongo drums
WARNING! E*Trade is playing one last trick. If the stock prices outside of the "original $10-$12 range", everyone is being forced to re-sumbit their conditional order. That means you may have as little as, say, 30min (never more than 2hrs, so say the critters at E*Trade) to actually call them and re-submit it.
ELSE YOU DON'T GET YOUR STOCK!
The Slashdot people seem to be completely dropping the numerous e-mails I've been sending them, which is why I'm posting a comment here, in case anyone is still reading this. Hopefully it will show on the main page soon. If you see this, poke at the Slashdot guys so we can get this info on the front page ASAP!
GStreamer - The only way to stream!
What?
F /...
There are chances like this everyday. RedHat is just another run of the mill decent IPO. The problem is that so many of the current group of IPOs (last 6 months are so) are garbage. Short selling won't win you any friends either at any of the online brokers. They will all block you from further IPOs.
---
Openstep/NeXTSTEP/Solaris/FreeBSD/Linux/ultrix/OS
--- I do not moderate.
No, this is definitely not true. As far as I know, E*TRADE charge standard commission ($20.03 with SEC tax) on IPO sales.
Buy on the IPO day and watch the price. It should shoot up dramatically.
Keep hitting reload on the stock price. Make sure you are on a realtime quote site, not a 20 minutes delayed site.
Watch for the top of the curve. It should happen pretty soon after the stock starts trading, maybe within a couple hours. Once you see the top of the curve, sell everything you have.
Then, wait two weeks and buy as many shares back as you can.
Even if you don't get in on the bottom price you might be able to make 20% on the first day of trading. After the first day, the stock price will fall a lot, but after a couple weeks it might start climbing again.
If you lose money doing this, don't blame me, I heard it somewhere else and I have no idea how it will work.
If tits were wings it'd be flying around.
I won't be surprized if at the end of the first day of trading it's in the $80-100 range. Damn, wish I had got one of those golden letters of joy.
"The voices in my head say crazy things"
No offense, but at this point, the rule that I tend to follow is this: take what E*Trade tells you, and believe the exact opposite.
--
He's not talking about flipping. He's talking about open-market purchases on the first day. Read his first sentence: "Buy on the IPO day."
I do agree with you about flipping, if you flip, e*trade will not want to do any more IPO business with you. Consider that VA Linux, Caldera, and Linuxcare are all talking about going public. So I'm not flipping mine!
I just called -- e*trade hasn't allocated shares yet, and in fact I was able to increase the size of my Conditional Offer.
So I'm surprised that yours are allocated. The ways of IPO's are mysterious indeed.
I received the same alert, same time stamp, 10:09:23.
I'm curious about the alert. It doesn't mention that Red Hat already bumped the price once.
Those of you who understand will forgive me.
Well, I do, and yet:
I've put more than a year of full-time, 50-a-hour-a-week development time into an open source project. And it's not even done yet.
This isn't an "I'm entitled" argument. Rather, if I do get a Red Hat windfall, I'm using it to pay my rent while I put some more man-months into my project.
Also, it is definitely not a "zero-sum game". Red Hat totally fits the model of a company that needs capital to expand. As a by-product of raising money, they have to leave some money on the table. They are offering us a chance to collect some of the money on the table. It's a very positive-sum game.
... at the IPO phone number, 1-888-707-8680 ext 4263. Don't bother with the main IPO phone number.
The first time, I talked to a helpful man who transferred me to a very helpful rep who modified my limit order to $14.25 for me. I asked the rep if Red Hat as likely to change the price again, and he said "probably not". Keep in mind that Red Hat, not e*trade, determines this price.
The second time, I realized I had more $$$ in my account and I could actually buy 100 more shares. So I called again, and this time e*trade's rep told me that their computers were currently unavailable, and he would call me back when he could revise the order.
I opened every conversation by stating that I was in Red Hat's Directed Share Program, and I always used the special 6-character account number (the one I get on http://www.etrade.com/redhatipo after I log in).
Anyone who has a limit order in for less than $14, you might want to call e*trade and revise it.
It would suck if it prices above 15, because that's all I can afford. I got past the IOI on E*Trade, so I am in the running for shares, but I only have enough in my account for 100 shares at $15 or less.
COME ON RHAT! UNDER 15 PLEASE!
P.S. I have a little extra in there to cover any commission, but it is my understanding that there is no commision on an IPO. Is this true?
Have you read the essay on the GNU web site entitled, "Studies Find Reward Often No Motivator?" If not, perhaps you should, particularly if you're one of those individuals who has expressed concern over the fate of the "Linux community" because of the mixture of grass-roots hackers and for-profit businesses.
For example, note this: "Extrinsic rewards can erode intrinsic interest. People who see themselves as working for money, approval or competitive success find their tasks less pleasurable, and therefore do not do them as well."
I find this an interesting qualifier to many of the views espoused by Eric Raymond. I'm sorry, but I think that the Slashdot guys have been spending too much time with the guys in Mountain View and not enough time with the spirit of Berkeley. The minute those dollar signs appear in your eyes, you begin to lose your vision.
hackito ergo sum
The shares aren't going to be allocated until it prices. It hasn't priced, so you're shares are not allocated. They probably told you they had your indication of interest for 200.
The announcements seemed pretty clear that the 800k was for employees, friends, family (the normal groups) and also community members (the unusual thing). Most likely, the employees will get some limit based on how long they've been with the company, 200, 400, etc., and they will get preference before community members. Wouldn't be very fair if Alan Cox got 0 and some guy who summited a incorrect bug report to redhat's bugzilla got 100, would it?
Of the shares that end up with community members, if there is not enough to give everyone 100, some people will get 100 and some will get 0. The chances of anyone except employees getting more than 100 are about zilch. Only way would be if far fewer people than redhat anticipated took advantage of "the letter".
No one will get 2 or 498 as some people seem to think, everything is done in blocks of 100. Just like how ATM cells are 43 bytes, no more, no less.
8/10/99 Please note, should the Red Hat IPO price above or below the original filing range of $10-12/share, E*TRADE customers will be required to submit a NEW Conditional Offer for shares. This offering has not yet been priced or declared effective. In the event that this happens, E*TRADE will update the IPO Bulletin and send an account alert to Customers who previously placed conditional Offers in this IPO.
Then just now, this appeared:
8/11/99 E*TRADE is now accepting new Conditional Offers in the Red Hat IPO. This issue has been priced at $14 and has been declared effective.
That's followed by a link to the Red Hat directed shares page. You have to fill out a new qualification questionnaire (previous answers are provided as defaults) and a new conditional offer. Entering a limit offer less than $14/share is probably not a good idea. :-)
Can anyone explain why E*TRADE is requiring new conditional offers?
-- R.
I'm certain of what they told me. I'm also (almost) certain at this point that what they told me was wrong. Oh, well.
-- R.
You think that open source software is where the future is heading, right? Put your money where your mouth is and buy shares in rhat, beos...
I was under the impression that BeOS is NOT open. It's cool like Java (buzzword compliant) not Linux (free software).
---
Put Hemos through English 101!
"An armed society is a polite society" -- Robert Heinlein
Linux MAPI Server!
http://www.openone.com/software/MailOne/
(Exchange Migration HOWTO coming soon)
anyone recommend/share any limits on when its price too expensive to buy?
some details at http://cbs. marketwatch.com/news/current/ipo_rep.htx?source=ht x/http2_mw
Freedom's just another word for nothing left Zulus
I'd hope there's a separate allocation procedure for "friends/family" -- that none of the designated shares go to other E*Trade customers unless "friends/family" don't collectively put in for at least 800,000. (I say that even though it decreases my own chances of getting in.)
Note, however, that "friends/family" also includes Red Hat people, who presumably wouldn't have to go through E*Trade to get in. Unclear how many designated shares actually will go through E*Trade. From the SEC filing:
At the request of Red Hat, the underwriters have reserved up to 800,000 shares of common stock for sale at the initial public offering price through a directed share program, to directors, officers and employees of Red Hat and to open source software developers and other persons that Red Hat believes have contributed to the success of the open source software community and the growth of Red Hat.
Freedom's just another word for nothing left Zulus
IPO Bulletin
8/10/99 Please note, should the Red Hat IPO price above or below the original filing range of $10-12/share, E*TRADE customers will be required to submit a NEW Conditional Offer for shares. This offering has not yet been priced or declared effective. In the event that this happens, E*TRADE will update the IPO Bulletin and send an account alert to Customers who previously placed conditional Offers in this IPO.
E*Trade's account/trading services were down for a while today. If RHAT prices outside the range, expect utter chaos. Oy.
And no, the announcement doesn't distinguish between friends/family and others.
Freedom's just another word for nothing left Zulus
time to refile conditional offers
Freedom's just another word for nothing left Zulus
8/11/99 E*TRADE is now accepting new Conditional Offers in the Red Hat IPO. This issue has been priced at $14 and has been declared effective. Go Now.
Freedom's just another word for nothing left Zulus
Oh yeah, it would be GREAT publicity for the open source community if someone cracked the E*Trade IPO pages. Dumbass.
Freedom's just another word for nothing left Zulus
Philosophical arguments aside, it seems pretty unlikely that any of us mere mortals (i.e. E*Traders) will be going into early retirement off the RHAT IPO tomorrow, even if the stock comes out like gangbusters.
A broker at E*Trade just explained the allocation procedure to me:
First, assuming you made it past the qualification questionnaire and put in a conditional offer, E*Trade reviews you for eligibility, namely that you have enough money in your account to cover however many shares you say you want.
Then E*Trade allocates 100 shares to everyone who's eligible -- if E*Trade has enough to go around. If not, the allocation is done randomly, i.e. lottery.
If there happen to be shares left over after the first round of allocations, the process is repeated until the shares are gone. But this broker says "it's very rare" that there are enough shares to give even 100 to everyone who wants some.
IOW, no matter how many shares you put in for, if you get 100 shares you'd be lucky.
I'd note that this comports with E*Trade's stated philosophy of getting IPO shares into the hands of as many desiring E*Trade customers as possible over time. It also comports with E*Trade's need to make as many $19.95 commissions as possible in any deal.
Freedom's just another word for nothing left Zulus
>I would sell mine initially.
I would suggest that this is not in the best interest of the investor, RedHat or the "Linux/GNU/OpenSource/whatever" community.
1) If you are one of the lucky few who get in on the IPO, you would really be doing yourself a disservice to dump it on the first day since the immediate money you could make is far less than the potential return 10 years down the road if it takes off. Imagine how you will feel in 10 years if the value is 10x what you paid tomorrow and you sold it on the first day for a 20% gain.
2) If anyone really cares about success of this IPO, 'flipping' is not how you help. Buying the shares and watching the price and then buying some more later is good. Dumping your stock the day you buy it does not contribute to the stability of the stock. RedHat and E-Trade want the stock to appreciate in value gradually over time, not swing windly up then crash to the floor.
3) Instability in the market for open-source company IPO's will not help the compaines like VA that will go public in the future. If RedHat looks like a nightmare, the terms for future IPO could be less favorable.
I am not a financial advisor, nor am I a wildly successful day-trader. These are my opinions. Sure, I'd like to make a quick buck as much as anybody. I'd like to make a lot more bucks over the long-haul and see the companies I like become successful in the industry, which - like it or not - sometimes depends on their track record in the market.
Mike
You can never have too much RAM or too much disk space. --Ancient American Proverb, circa 1980
Absolutely.
Add to that (or to summarize):
1. Buy for the long term.
2. Buy what you know.
I need an APC pickup!
If there is a high demand for shares the IPO price will inflate prematurly with correspondance to the high demand.. then will dive by the end .. up short down in a day || at most two-> time to buy
Tommorow boys and girls!! yay! can it beat Be??
http://www.zdnet.com/z dnn/stories/news/0,4586,2310662,00.html
The poor performance of IPO's in the market recently might make this a good time for Redhat's IPO, from the investors' standpoint, inluding IPO buyers, and investors in the secondary market. If it opens lower, because of market performance, that just leaves more room for profit when it inevitably shoots up. There is a *lot* of interest in the redhat stock. Everyone from HP to SGI to IBM is supporting linux, and thus supporting redhat, indirectly, if not directly. Get in while you can. This timing might be your chance to catch it at a temporarily lower price.
-Larry
...These aren't the droids you're looking for....Move along....
A friend of mine is playing with the redhat stock...Got accepted by etrade for the IPO...I hope he makes a nice hefty profit, so he can put a nice chunk into VA Linux System's IPO, a few months from now. VA is waiting to see what happens to redhat. Expect to see the IPO announcement in the next week or two, if redhat does well. You can quote me on this.
...These aren't the droids you're looking for....Move along....
Hey, I submitted this earlier today. Stupid lousy rotten luck.
For more information, click here.
*Any* time I freely exchange something with someone else, that is not zero-sum, because we both value the other thing higher. Even if I change a $1 bill for four quarters, that is not zero-sum. Why? Because I wouldn't have bothered unless I valued the four quarters more than a $1 bill.
Does it take time and effort to track the IPO? Yes. It's not free money; it cost me time to write the free software in the first place, and it's costing me time to buy the stock. Oh well, I've decided that it's still a better return per hour than the time I spend programming.
-russ
Don't piss off The Angry Economist
It's the top-rated one according to Red Herring. So everyone's watching.
...
Hey, if more people bail from the IPO, then I can get more shares! C'mon, people, I need 4000 shares - that's just 40 of you
Will in Seattle
However, first they will fill up the first 100 shares of all those who stay in >bail,bailplease,please - so everyone has the same chance of getting 100 shares, but a lesser chance of getting more.
...
And if you don't have enough cash for the first 100 shares, you're bumped. Hope you've got $1430 in your account
Will in Seattle
Of course, you probably won't get another IPO, but you're a coder, so who cares? And friends and family don't play by the rules anyway.
Part of this is that the IPO allows people to provide supply for trading. You don't want the spread between bid and ask to get too big, or it superheats. As a seller, you want the spread to get to bid, but for efficient market forces, you need a roughly equal supply of buyers and sellers.
Since the institutionals will bleed it off in tiny dribbles, in some ways you're helping out by selling at your own prices.
Just don't try to do a limit buy the first day, it probably won't execute.
Will in Seattle
I just did, to see if my order for 4000 shares was still ok at the higher price range of $12-$14 and was told they'll just reduce the amount of shares up to the money market amount. But it's a good idea to phone, especially if you put in a limit.
...
If you don't have enough in your account in a few hours, oops. Hope for a $12 pricing.
Now I need to see how many we get on the family trust account (not through E*Trade)
Will in Seattle
Excellent! That means I've got a shot at my full allocation of 4000.
Will in Seattle
MSFT is competing with Linux, but, as Linus said in the interview (posted today on Upside), we define the battlefield. Float like a bee, sting like a horde of butterflies ...
OTOH, MSFT will make money for the next 2-3 years, guaranteed.
Will in Seattle
I had to go through the standard IPO route myself.
I was told they should show up tomorrow, before Noon PST (3PM EST).
Will in Seattle
Yup, me too.
But then I phoned them and talked to a broker.
No messages since then.
Will in Seattle
Exactly. By selling, you capitalize the earned wealth as income. And pay capital gains. Which goes to Black\\\\\Fixing Ops\\\Roads and paying off the national debt.
Look, you could live in almost any other country and you'd pay higher taxes, so don't complain. If you don't want to be taxed, don't realize your increased wealth.
Will in Seattle
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990810/37.html
Of course, everyone has been paying more attention to RedHat, and ignoring the other IPOs (who are they, anyways?). They may soar then plumment, but they hopefully won't drop like a brick, then forever sink....
Wow. I think the one that has really gotten people's attention is RedHat.
(either that or it's just me)
And hotjobs.com? Didn't they JUST start up a little while ago (just before the superbowl? or are they not that new?)
Don't think of the stock market as a place where experts decide the appropriate price for stocks. Think of it as more like Family Feud, as in "Name the 7 continents--top 10 answers on the board!" You have to figure out what some fucking idiot thinks is a continent. Arctica? The stock market is more like a place where people with money try to outguess other people's moves, however stupid, and beat them to it. Few of these people know what slashdot readers know about Linux, open source, etc.
Internet stocks are slumping right now, because that's the buzz that's going around the lemming herd of stock brokers. For now. Next month Tom Cruise will be wearing a red hat on Entertainment Tonight, and everyone will run out and buy rhat shares, or Bill Clinton will be overheard talking about open sores on his privates, and someone will think that he is holding open source stock in his private portfolio, and away we go!
You're smarter than average, right? You think that Red Hat is a good company, right? You think that open source software is where the future is heading, right? Put your money where your mouth is and buy shares in rhat, beos, etc., then hold onto them until you retire. I'm 29 years old, so the worst case scenario for me is retiring in 36 years. Just about every stock is going up sometime in the next 36 years, so I'm picking cool ones. What about you?
Mike van Lammeren
It will challenge your head, your brain, and your mind.
As someone else here said, in the minds of many suits, "Red Hat" == "Linux". Those are the guys that drive the price.
Now if only I could take advantage of this. [sigh]
The cake is a pie
Read it all at: MarketWatch
Just got off the phone with E*Trade. The people seemed genuinely apologetic...but yes, folks, we must ONCE AGAIN camp out on the site and RE-SUBMIT our info if we wish to get in on the RH IPO. AND...we may be TURNED DOWN even if we were approved the FIRST time, if the amazing Powers that Be determine that the extra $2/share will break our little banks.
Oh, and it MAY NOT EVEN BE TODAY.
GRRRRRRRRRRRRRR....the little man will NEVER win.
I have a DAY JOB, folks...I can't park all day! What the hell IS this? (very frustrated now)
Oh, btw...I have excellent mood music in the 'puter CD player right now...for this situation, I recommend "Halber Mensch" by Einsturzende Neubauten. Annoying, jarring, LOUD, and edgy...makes me grateful that my German is bad enough where I DON'T understand the lyrics...
I just got an email from my broker which stated: "There is no indication that the offering is going public today. Call me after 11 AM to discuss"
Can someone please let me know what's going on?
Also, has anyone found a place on the net that will auto-email you the instant RedHat hits the street (whenever that is)? I'd rather wait for an email than have to hit -reload all morning.
Thanks...
I like how the ticker symbol (RHAT) sounds out to be "Rat".
:)
Great marketing
Yes, this is true. But, when is the next time that you can honestly see yourself getting in on an IPO with as much publicity and chance of springing quickly as Redhat?
The average investor never gets a chance like this... and while E-Trade and various other internet brokers out there will put some IPO shares in a lottery pool, even if you do luckily get one, there is a high probability that it will be a dud.
I would sell mine initially.
Here is a quick list that i found.
COMPANY SIZE(MLN) RANGE UNDERWRITER TRADEDATE
InterWorld 3.0 15 Invemed PRICED
U S Interactive 4.615 10 Lehman PRICED
Braun Consulting 4 7 DLJ PRICED
Hotjobs.com 3.0 8 1 DB Alex PRICED
Garden.com 4.1 11-13 Hambrecht Aug11
Mortgage.com 7.5 10-12 CSFB Aug11
NETsilicon 5.0 8-10 CIBC Aug11
Red Hat 6.0 12-14 Goldman Aug11
Women.com 3.75 10-12 MorganSt Aug11
NetScout Systems 4.0 14-16 DB Alex Aug12
Blockbuster 31.0 16-18 Salomon Aug11
IXNet 7.5 18-20 Salomon Aug11
Quest Software 4.4 12-14 BancBoston Aug12
FirstAmerica Auto 7.84 12-14 Merrill Aug12
Bamboo.com 5.0 10-12 Prudential Aug12
Active Software 4.0 10-12 Goldman Aug13
LookSmart 12 11-12 Goldman Aug13
Tunes.com 4.0 13-15 Salomon Aug13
Medscape 5.4 11-13 DLJ Aug13
Luminant 12.6 11-13 DB Alex Aug13
Alliance Resource 8.97 19-21 Salmon Aug13
Rockford Corp. 3.4 11-13 DainRaucher wkAug9
US Interactive 5.2 10-12 Lehman eawkAug9
ftd.com 5.5 13-15 Bear eamidwkAug9
AverStar 4.0 7-9 Bear midltwkAug6
Cortelco Systems 3.12 10-12 JPMorgan ltwkAug9
Opensite Tech 3.68 10-12 Hambrecht ltwkAug9
Interactive Intelligence 2.67 11-13 Merrill midAug
Greatfood.com 2.5 10.5-13.5 WRHambrecht midAug
Lionbridge Tech 4.0 12-14 Prudential midAug
Loislaw.com $75max Prudential midAug
Headhunter.net TBA FirstUnion midAug
Riva Bancshares 3.0 10-12 CIBC wkAug16
Healthgate Data 4.6 10-12 SGCowen wkAug16
Airgate $100max DLJ wkAug16
Webstakes.com 3.575 13-15 Bear wkAug16
MyPoints.com 5.0 10-12 BancBoston wkAug16
Imagex.com 4.0 12-14 Volpe wkAug16
Duraswitch 3.0 8-9 Cruttenden wkAug16
NovaMed DLJ Aug17
Netro Corp 5.0 7-9 Merrill Aug19
LaBranche 11.5 15-17 Salomon Aug19
Therma-Wave 3.3 10-12 BancofAmerica Aug
Gen Trak TBA 10 Barron Aug
Daleen Tech $57 BancBoston Aug
Jore 3.8 9-11 DADavidson Aug
Tunes.com 4.0 13-15 Salomon Aug
PurchasePro.com 4.0 11-13 Prudential ltAug
Ecollege.com TBA BancofAmer Aug/Sept
E2Net.com $173max DB Alex eaSept
Cybergold 4.0 9-11 SG Cowen Sept
Nelson Comms TBA SGCowen Sept
PCQuote.com 5.8 12-14 Prudential Sept
ITXC 5.4 13-15 Lehman Sept
Williams Comms $750max Lehman Sept
Yesmail.com 3.4 11-13 DB Alex midSept
Oratec $48.9 Merrill wkSep20
Advanstar 14.0 12.5-16.5 Merrill wkSep20
Predictive Systems $52nax BancBoston Sep23
Planet.Rx $69mln Goldman wkSep27
Charter Comm $3.45bln Goldman wkSep27
Spinnaker $125max CSFB wkSep27
United Parcel $3bln MorganSt Nov
Great reply.
Trying to "outguess" the market has repeatedly and repeatedly been shown to be a losing game.
Investing in quality companies over the long haul has repeatedly been shown to be a winning strategy, and the best possible way of staying well ahaed of inflation.
Over the long term, a company's share price is directly related to that company's performance. Because, as stated above, afterall... these are shares of the actual company that you own!
1) If you are one of the lucky few who get in on the IPO, you would really be doing yourself a disservice to
dump it on the first day since the immediate money you could make is far less than the potential return 10
years down the road if it takes off. Imagine how you will feel in 10 years if the value is 10x what you paid
tomorrow and you sold it on the first day for a 20% gain.
Selling initially does not prevent you from buying the shares back in the near future when the volume has settled down. If you believe RHAT to be a good long term investment, by all means, by the shares back and profit with them over the long haul.
However, over the past two decades, the average annual return of even the successful IPO's has only been 5%. This is pretty dismal, especially considering how wonderfully the overall market had performed during that span of time.
2) If anyone really cares about success of this IPO, 'flipping' is not how you help. Buying the shares and
watching the price and then buying some more later is good. Dumping your stock the day you buy it does
not contribute to the stability of the stock. RedHat and E-Trade want the stock to appreciate in value
gradually over time, not swing windly up then crash to the floor.
What slashdot readers decide to do with their shares is going to have absolutely no effect on the stability of RHAT's opening. The majority of the recepients at the offering price are institutional investors and high net worth individuals who do not give a damn about RHAT's mission satement.
3) Instability in the market for open-source company IPO's will not help the compaines like VA that will go
public in the future. If RedHat looks like a nightmare, the terms for future IPO could be less favorable.
Once again, this is simply what has happened to virtually Every IPO that has come out over the past 3 years. There is nothing wrong with a slashdot reader/linux supporter in trying to make some money on a market swing. If you believe in the company, buy your shares back once it settles down (or even better, more).
Except for that rare breed of first wave internet stocks, buying and holding IPO's is a way to lose money. No matter how great the idea behind the company is.
There are over 40 IPO's slated to come out this week alone. There were 30 last week. Many analysts have ventured that this huge slur of initial and public offerings is partly to blame for the recent poor performance of internet (which leads to tech, which leads to the rest of the market) stocks.
I think this is a bad time for Redhat to be coming out... they are going to be (unfairly) grouped with all the countless "dot" coms that are coming, and I am afraid it may fair poorly.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/headlines.htx?sour ce=htx/http2_mw
Well as i stated yesterday, the price has been raised again, but it looks like this time closer to 20. Etrade now has all our money and it takes about 2 weeks to get it back, because no ipo can be purchased on margin. there is no fees for ipos. If someone can help me crack their ipo pages i will greatly appreciate it. All they are doing is changing a single three digit number. we should see the price by 9 o'clock california time.