Wait... apologies for multiple posts but I see that we may be talking about different things.
Yes, I know what futures are. And you do, too. But what you aren't taking into account is that futures are bought and sold on the basis of projected future value. So, using some hypothetical example, I'll call Jeebits for example:
A futures contract is not made on the basis of this year's price. If we expect a particularly good year for Jeebits next year, then a futures contract will be offered for less. If we expect a drought, then we would ask (or be offered) a higher price.
So, lo and behold! The next year is a bumper crop of Jeebits. Those who sold contracts at low values (perhaps in a desperate market, to undercut the competition) lose out. Those who sold futures at higher value, perhaps in their confidence in their production, reap the main benefits.
But that is anti-competitive. It's not a matter anymore of who produced more, or how efficiently. In fact those who bet on what would be a normal, competitive free-market price might not actually have done very well.
It is a matter of who BET on what the futures would do, and who came out on top. But it's that ANTICIPATED FUTURE VALUE that was bet on (which is why they're called "futures" in the first place).
Again: that's gambling. And I don't mean "taking risks", I mean actual gambling.
In fact... now that I've gotten over your gross and unjustified insult, I'll give you an example that even you can probably understand: corn futures.
Corn futures are often use as a classic example. Corn futures were great, right? Corn was doing well, and there was ALWAYS a market for it! In fact we started selling a lot of it to make fuel, so you could ALWAYS sell it! 40% by some reports is now being used to make ethanol, mainly for fuel.
Then 2012 hit. Well, guess what? It hurt the corn crop. (Investing in weather is gambling.) So corn prices didn't go down. Surely not. But EVERYTHING ELSE went up!
And of course, in any futures market, somebody loses when something goes up, too.
So no, futures may not be direct casino gambling like most derivatives are, but it's still gambling. Futures do not invest in production and production capacity (capitalism), what they do is BET on production and production capacity.
"It is fraud on a national scale, and it was *not* at the government's prodding."
Yes, it is fraud on a national scale, because business went along with Freddie and Fannie, knowing that they could now make high-risk loans and have their asses pulled out of the fire if something went wrong.
But yes, it was at the government's prodding. Fannie and Freddie ARE government prodding. That's what they're for. And it's a matter of record. All you have to do is look it up.
Yes, it is. The policies of Freddie and Fannie are set by Congress, and Congress (courtesy largely of our "friend" Barney) mandated year after year that Freddie and Fannie MUST (not should, but MUST) increase its percentage of loans to higher-risk buyers. This was a CENTRAL part of liberal government's plans to make houses "more affordable" to everybody. Literally, year after year this went on.
It's right there in the laws. This is not a question. It's history.
The government (you can thank Barney Frank in particular) increasingly required Freddie and Fannie to make more risky loans. This process went on for years. The entire market got in on the deal.
It wasn't JUST corporate greed, although there was plenty of that. Our own government REQUIRED investment in high-risk mortgages. And it eventually caught up.
Our government's policies were DIRECTLY behind most of the policies that led to the 2008 crash. If you don't believe that, you haven't been paying attention. Of course they had the cooperation of the banks and so forth. The banks can't lose. If they play by the Federal rules, they are Federally insured, right?
Futures and derivatives are NOT "capitalism". They are gambling. Pure and simple. This has been one of the main downfalls of banks and Wall Street, directly contributing to the 2008 debacle.
We should not base our economy on fake money. Investment is fine. And all investment is "gambling" to a certain extent... at least if it's done honestly.
BUT... speculation and derivatives are PURE gambling. It's nothing more than a government-sponsored casino.
No doubt somebody along the line here will quote the studies showing that money is often NOT a good incentive. But it depends on the people and the circumstances.
Give me cash. Then I can buy my own cake or my own massage, if I want. But make sure the rewards are for short-term goals. Otherwise the incentive loses its luster.
"Remember adblock users, disable adblock on web sites that rely on ad revenue to operate, and aren't greedy commercial goblins!"
I don't use AdBlock. I use NoScript and Flashblock, disable 3rd party cookies, and have my browser and global Flash preferences both set to "Never Allow Local Storage".
That way, ads from sites that AREN'T tracking me show up just fine.
"I have to agree with the posit that this a potential-sociopath and worthy of watching _within_ the system, so that he can be further constrained should he devolve."
I might agree with you except for one thing: I have seen what "the system" itself has devolved into. For some time, it has no longer been a "justice" system, but instead has been a money-generator for the state, corporations who run "corrections" facilities, and the multiple other businesses (lawyers, parole officers, counselors, etc.) that support them. All at taxpayer expense.
Today, "the system" is designed to never let you out once you get in. Even for minor things, they put obstacles and conditions and fees on things that are intended to make you stumble, or miss payments, or violate parole, and keep you attached to them forever. I have seen that happen to more than one person.
I am sure it is worse in some states than in others. But if I had any concern for the kid or his family at all, I would invoke "the system" only as a last, desperate resort.
I looked again, and didn't find anything from this year. So my memory could be incorrect.
But there's Maclay and Forward, from 2004. There are more recent examples but I will not have time to hunt them up today.
Granted, it's only a thought experiment, and it doesn't generate practical energy even then, in this form. But hey... fusion isn't practical yet, either.
To be clear: I did not claim anybody had found anything practical. Only that there may be ways to do it.
"But, let's be honest here. With humanity, they are the same thing."
I am being honest, and no they are not. Apparently I have a bit more faith in humanity than you do.
"As soon as you inject money into any human-based endeavor, greed perverts the whole thing. Sometimes it takes longer than other times, but it happens without fail."
Not "as soon as", but you addressed that yourself. Okay. So the system has become corrupt (I think we can agree on that). What then to do?
It isn't "everybody" who is involved in the corruption. I continue to believe that most people have benevolent (if self-interested) motives.
Reboot? Another revolution? Hard to say. It's taken 200 years to get this bad; Jefferson predicted only 20.
"The inherit short sightedness of a profit driven society is frightening to behold. Over the last dozen years so I understand why so many people believed in the communist society that the original USSR and other such countries had intended. Sadly those don't work nearly as well either."
It has nothing to do with being profit-driven. It has to do with being greed-driven. Contrary to the belief of many, they're not the same things. A free market depends on mutual, voluntary trade. When people try to base it on greed instead, it ceases to work properly.
"This question only needed one answer, and the first post had it.
I wonder if that has ever happened here before?"
Damned straight. I would not even have spoken to my supervisor about it. I would have installed Git and gone with it.
If (for some Gridawful unforeseen reason) the supervisor had a problem with it later, I would go over supervisor's head and ask the next boss up why supervisor doesn't know how to do her job.
Honestly, I don't remember all the details. The first one was Android as I recall, but still solidly better hardware than the Pi.
Frankly, these days, if you have an ARM processor with compatible GPU there is most likely some version of Linux that will run on it. At least that is my impression. If wrong, let me know.
Clarification: 200+ years old to so-called Western civilization. It was in use by many tribes who use(d) blowguns for hunting, including some in S. America and probably S.E. Asia.
Most likely, it is a couple of thousand years old.
"VIA has a product with some very nice specs for $50, and I believe it comes with Android or something. But the shipping is another $35. I can order an android tablet with a display from China with free shipping but VIA wants $35 for a motherboard? Uh no."
If so, that's a good point. I only paid attention to the retail, not the shipping.
Fire pistons are a dime a dozen on ebay or Amazon. You can get them made of aluminum, acrylic, animal horn, exotic woods... just about anything you want. Some have o-rings for gaskets. Some used greased thread. Some are better than others; some probably aren't very good.
But how does this make for a good Kickstarter project? There are already better ones on the market. Fire pistons were brought back to Europe and demonstrated in 1802. They were one of the primary ways of starting fires from about 1805 to the mid-nineteenth century, when chemical matches became common.
I mean, really. Jesus. I'd sure like to haul in $40,000 for some 200-year-old, thrice-warmed-over, cheap piece of metal with no originality to it whatsoever, which is already being sold for less in major markets all over the world.
There is -- in my opinion -- a superior product called the Vulcan fire piston, available through ebay. There are lots of different fire pistons on ebay, actually, but the Vulcan is probably the best-constructed. They have been around for a few years.
Not that there's anything necessarily wrong with the Kickstarter project, but it's pretty obviously a derivative product, and not even that well designed, actually. It's too narrow to get in a good slap without hurting your hand.
Trying to remember now. Was it Acer, or Asus? One of the two. Just about 3 weeks (if memory serves) after the Pi started shipping. Twice the RAM, much better GPU, ethernet, and only a few dollars more.
Then a week or two later, another one came out. Don't remember what brand. But again, the first one was Acer or Asus. It shouldn't be too hard to find.
Slashdot Mirror
Wait... apologies for multiple posts but I see that we may be talking about different things.
Yes, I know what futures are. And you do, too. But what you aren't taking into account is that futures are bought and sold on the basis of projected future value. So, using some hypothetical example, I'll call Jeebits for example:
A futures contract is not made on the basis of this year's price. If we expect a particularly good year for Jeebits next year, then a futures contract will be offered for less. If we expect a drought, then we would ask (or be offered) a higher price.
So, lo and behold! The next year is a bumper crop of Jeebits. Those who sold contracts at low values (perhaps in a desperate market, to undercut the competition) lose out. Those who sold futures at higher value, perhaps in their confidence in their production, reap the main benefits.
But that is anti-competitive. It's not a matter anymore of who produced more, or how efficiently. In fact those who bet on what would be a normal, competitive free-market price might not actually have done very well.
It is a matter of who BET on what the futures would do, and who came out on top. But it's that ANTICIPATED FUTURE VALUE that was bet on (which is why they're called "futures" in the first place).
Again: that's gambling. And I don't mean "taking risks", I mean actual gambling.
In fact... now that I've gotten over your gross and unjustified insult, I'll give you an example that even you can probably understand: corn futures.
Corn futures are often use as a classic example. Corn futures were great, right? Corn was doing well, and there was ALWAYS a market for it! In fact we started selling a lot of it to make fuel, so you could ALWAYS sell it! 40% by some reports is now being used to make ethanol, mainly for fuel.
Then 2012 hit. Well, guess what? It hurt the corn crop. (Investing in weather is gambling.) So corn prices didn't go down. Surely not. But EVERYTHING ELSE went up!
And of course, in any futures market, somebody loses when something goes up, too.
So no, futures may not be direct casino gambling like most derivatives are, but it's still gambling. Futures do not invest in production and production capacity (capitalism), what they do is BET on production and production capacity.
That's called gambling.
"How is that gambling?"
If you REALLY don't understand how that IS gambling, then I probably can't explain it to you. I haven't taught 3rd-graders in many years.
"It is fraud on a national scale, and it was *not* at the government's prodding."
Yes, it is fraud on a national scale, because business went along with Freddie and Fannie, knowing that they could now make high-risk loans and have their asses pulled out of the fire if something went wrong.
But yes, it was at the government's prodding. Fannie and Freddie ARE government prodding. That's what they're for. And it's a matter of record. All you have to do is look it up.
"That's not what happened here."
Yes, it is. The policies of Freddie and Fannie are set by Congress, and Congress (courtesy largely of our "friend" Barney) mandated year after year that Freddie and Fannie MUST (not should, but MUST) increase its percentage of loans to higher-risk buyers. This was a CENTRAL part of liberal government's plans to make houses "more affordable" to everybody. Literally, year after year this went on.
It's right there in the laws. This is not a question. It's history.
"You're both wrong."
No, they (we?) are not both wrong.
The government (you can thank Barney Frank in particular) increasingly required Freddie and Fannie to make more risky loans. This process went on for years. The entire market got in on the deal.
It wasn't JUST corporate greed, although there was plenty of that. Our own government REQUIRED investment in high-risk mortgages. And it eventually caught up.
Our government's policies were DIRECTLY behind most of the policies that led to the 2008 crash. If you don't believe that, you haven't been paying attention. Of course they had the cooperation of the banks and so forth. The banks can't lose. If they play by the Federal rules, they are Federally insured, right?
You're being soaked.
"Um... no, you're wrong. They are insurance."
Um... no, I'm not wrong. Insurance IS gambling.
Can we get Elena Kagan fired instead?
No doubt.
Futures and derivatives are NOT "capitalism". They are gambling. Pure and simple. This has been one of the main downfalls of banks and Wall Street, directly contributing to the 2008 debacle.
We should not base our economy on fake money. Investment is fine. And all investment is "gambling" to a certain extent... at least if it's done honestly.
BUT... speculation and derivatives are PURE gambling. It's nothing more than a government-sponsored casino.
This.
No doubt somebody along the line here will quote the studies showing that money is often NOT a good incentive. But it depends on the people and the circumstances.
Give me cash. Then I can buy my own cake or my own massage, if I want. But make sure the rewards are for short-term goals. Otherwise the incentive loses its luster.
"Remember adblock users, disable adblock on web sites that rely on ad revenue to operate, and aren't greedy commercial goblins!"
I don't use AdBlock. I use NoScript and Flashblock, disable 3rd party cookies, and have my browser and global Flash preferences both set to "Never Allow Local Storage".
That way, ads from sites that AREN'T tracking me show up just fine.
"I have to agree with the posit that this a potential-sociopath and worthy of watching _within_ the system, so that he can be further constrained should he devolve."
I might agree with you except for one thing: I have seen what "the system" itself has devolved into. For some time, it has no longer been a "justice" system, but instead has been a money-generator for the state, corporations who run "corrections" facilities, and the multiple other businesses (lawyers, parole officers, counselors, etc.) that support them. All at taxpayer expense.
Today, "the system" is designed to never let you out once you get in. Even for minor things, they put obstacles and conditions and fees on things that are intended to make you stumble, or miss payments, or violate parole, and keep you attached to them forever. I have seen that happen to more than one person.
I am sure it is worse in some states than in others. But if I had any concern for the kid or his family at all, I would invoke "the system" only as a last, desperate resort.
I looked again, and didn't find anything from this year. So my memory could be incorrect.
But there's Maclay and Forward, from 2004. There are more recent examples but I will not have time to hunt them up today.
Granted, it's only a thought experiment, and it doesn't generate practical energy even then, in this form. But hey... fusion isn't practical yet, either.
To be clear: I did not claim anybody had found anything practical. Only that there may be ways to do it.
"But, let's be honest here. With humanity, they are the same thing."
I am being honest, and no they are not. Apparently I have a bit more faith in humanity than you do.
"As soon as you inject money into any human-based endeavor, greed perverts the whole thing. Sometimes it takes longer than other times, but it happens without fail."
Not "as soon as", but you addressed that yourself. Okay. So the system has become corrupt (I think we can agree on that). What then to do?
It isn't "everybody" who is involved in the corruption. I continue to believe that most people have benevolent (if self-interested) motives.
Reboot? Another revolution? Hard to say. It's taken 200 years to get this bad; Jefferson predicted only 20.
"It's wrong (well, kinda of, define "compatible GPU")."
Right. I should have been clearer. By "compatile GPU" I meant one for which there are already drivers.
I know that's an issue. But it's getting better.
"The inherit short sightedness of a profit driven society is frightening to behold. Over the last dozen years so I understand why so many people believed in the communist society that the original USSR and other such countries had intended. Sadly those don't work nearly as well either."
It has nothing to do with being profit-driven. It has to do with being greed-driven. Contrary to the belief of many, they're not the same things. A free market depends on mutual, voluntary trade. When people try to base it on greed instead, it ceases to work properly.
"This question only needed one answer, and the first post had it.
I wonder if that has ever happened here before?"
Damned straight. I would not even have spoken to my supervisor about it. I would have installed Git and gone with it.
If (for some Gridawful unforeseen reason) the supervisor had a problem with it later, I would go over supervisor's head and ask the next boss up why supervisor doesn't know how to do her job.
Period. End.
Honestly, I don't remember all the details. The first one was Android as I recall, but still solidly better hardware than the Pi.
Frankly, these days, if you have an ARM processor with compatible GPU there is most likely some version of Linux that will run on it. At least that is my impression. If wrong, let me know.
Clarification: 200+ years old to so-called Western civilization. It was in use by many tribes who use(d) blowguns for hunting, including some in S. America and probably S.E. Asia.
Most likely, it is a couple of thousand years old.
Meh. Was it realy APC? Or is that a different one? I was sure it was Acer or Asus. But hey, I never claimed to be infallible. Well, not often anyway.
"VIA has a product with some very nice specs for $50, and I believe it comes with Android or something. But the shipping is another $35. I can order an android tablet with a display from China with free shipping but VIA wants $35 for a motherboard? Uh no."
If so, that's a good point. I only paid attention to the retail, not the shipping.
What amazes me is that he got any pledges at all.
Fire pistons are a dime a dozen on ebay or Amazon. You can get them made of aluminum, acrylic, animal horn, exotic woods... just about anything you want. Some have o-rings for gaskets. Some used greased thread. Some are better than others; some probably aren't very good.
But how does this make for a good Kickstarter project? There are already better ones on the market. Fire pistons were brought back to Europe and demonstrated in 1802. They were one of the primary ways of starting fires from about 1805 to the mid-nineteenth century, when chemical matches became common.
I mean, really. Jesus. I'd sure like to haul in $40,000 for some 200-year-old, thrice-warmed-over, cheap piece of metal with no originality to it whatsoever, which is already being sold for less in major markets all over the world.
There is -- in my opinion -- a superior product called the Vulcan fire piston, available through ebay. There are lots of different fire pistons on ebay, actually, but the Vulcan is probably the best-constructed. They have been around for a few years.
Not that there's anything necessarily wrong with the Kickstarter project, but it's pretty obviously a derivative product, and not even that well designed, actually. It's too narrow to get in a good slap without hurting your hand.
Amazing. Nice little bit of little-known but real and easily verifiable history, and some bozo labels it "flamebait".
I sometimes wonder why I bother.
Trying to remember now. Was it Acer, or Asus? One of the two. Just about 3 weeks (if memory serves) after the Pi started shipping. Twice the RAM, much better GPU, ethernet, and only a few dollars more.
Then a week or two later, another one came out. Don't remember what brand. But again, the first one was Acer or Asus. It shouldn't be too hard to find.