I still can't quite wrap my head around the concept that a country in Europe has literal thought police that put someone in jail for THREE YEARS. Think about that -- THREE YEARS -- for thinking the wrong thoughts.
You're talking about the Holocaust Deniers, right?
a) and b) All we have for an answer to this is biotech. That's not a lot of jobs, considering that it is going overseas as we speak. That industry will be mostly gone in 5 years.
c) the market for custom $30,000 PCI cards is not very big. How many people are employed in that?
Don't be so smug about the military work being entirely stuck in America: http://www.therant.us/staff/grassi/12222005.htm "Still remaining under scrutiny are procurement contracts and how much leeway contractors will be given in offshoring military parts to India and China."
IOW they're thinking about offshoring stuff now. Write your Congresscritter.
Small businesses - enterpreneurs - made up 70% of the employers during Clinton's time, if I recall. They'll be providing face to face services. You'll definitely see an explosion in that.
But as I said, we might be seeing a PILE of offshore-vulnerable jobs coming back if efforts to outlaw personal information offshoring, come to fruition! I'm actually very happy...
No, they're known for a) being more expensive to bribe b) occasionally aware of the presence of the FBI and its legal ability to hunt them down if they commit a crime within the US.
BTW I noticed a few Al Qaeda members have mod access.:)
Much easier said than done. Do you have any idea of how this would come about if Microsoft continues to promote "the world of applications and devices that run on Windows" on national television?
The same way that IBM and other companies have signed onto Linux and ATI & Nvidia make *cough* drivers *wheeze* for Linux *choke*.
Biotech is an example of the harsh new reality. You go to college now to learn the new hot industry, and by the time you get out? It's already going overseas. You no longer can recoup your educational investment.
b) How does the offshoring industry and services for offshore US workers produce any jobs here? Why would they want anything from here when they can get it there cheaper? Many BPO operations are owned and managed over there. Companies here just arrange deals with them and off they go.
c) Just in time coding/hardware design. Why can't an offshore company provide that? College students are already doing just-in-time outsourcing of programming homework, how far behind is $30,000 custom PCI card production? You're making a big assumption that offshore people won't do less than a $300,000 order.
Who's going to make UAV hardware/software? Americans? Now maybe, but in the near future? Hardly. Where will they get the job experience and expertise for that? You'll have to travel to India to get job experience. Otherwise unmanned aerial vehicle hardware/software design will be done primarily by fresh, inexperienced college grads with no job experience. *ACK!!* More than likely we'll be farming that out overseas where they will have the most experience in 10 years. Yeah, our leadership is that stupid. And there's another thing... this implies a growth in Government jobs. The choking sound you hear is that of a million anti tax free marketeers needing a Heimlich Maneuver... stat!
On a side note, Government jobs appear to be on a steep increase.
In home tech support and domestic network engineering... now there are jobs that cannot leave. But those are not new industries. I've been doing both since 1995. The market for these are also oversaturated: check the local newspaper and you'll see dozens of such services competing for the market.
Your last point, going into business for yourself, is going to be the most viable option left. The wealthy elite in America are so lazy that businesses like "Doody Duty" are cropping up. I bs you not: http://www.doggydoodyduty.com/
BTW that was a pretty good response. Glad to see at least one free marketer is actually thinking originally.
It's far easier and cheaper to bribe the employees and admin of a data center in Pakistan/India/Russia than it is to bribe someone in the US.
They'll be aiming at tapping some poor admin chap in Bangalore to cough up an entire data center's repository, and when they get all that data, whammo. More IED's, purchased on your credit card.
Then one of those IED's blows up a buddy of yours serving in Iraq. To add insult upon injury, you get to deal with the FBI when they come beating down your door thinking you bought the bomb that blew up your buddy.
by killing the entire concept of a paid programmer altogether.
Theoretically speaking, that is.
If Firefox continues to improve in quality, it will become so superior to the likes of Opera and MSIE that it'll be the biggest and nearly only game in town. At some point, who wants to buy a browser when they can get the free and super secure Firefox version for, potentially, every platform? At some point MicroSoft falls so far behind with MSIE that they cannot afford to continue hiring programmers here or abroad to update it, and they may sell off or close down the MSIE line.
Now if Open Office improves similarly, MS Office could be endangered. Why buy MS Office if you can get an equal ROI for free with Open Office?
Perhaps Linux gets tons of hyper consumer grade (as in, your grandma could use it without breaking a sweat) facelifts, while holding onto its power user underpinnings. Easily done, actually. If all programs are written as procedures in shared object libraries, you could make both command line and graphical user front ends to call them, and a really crazy coder would give the user a 'command line equivalent' submenu option for the GUI version so the wanna-be power user could see how the command line version would have done the work. That would result in perfect scaleability. At some point, Linux catches up with Windows in Suzi Office Worker appeal, and its privacy, anti DRM, etc. advantages, drives Windows into irrelevancy. What's left of driver support problems are resolved, and whammo, MicroSoft finds itself losing sales at a catastrophic level.
Offshore and domestic coders of *any* app could theoretically be, despite their cheapness, be put out of work by a wetware beowulf cluster of hobbyist coders and volunteer testers tired of paying for any software, period, and who are hell bent upon matching the functionality of current for-pay software.
There are a number of factors holding back open source, though, not the least of which is Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt, aka pro-Commercial Software Propaganda.
But if these barriers fall, open source could theoretically force many, many offshore and domestic software manufacturing companies to compete against FREE and BETTER software. This is very bad GNUs for their bottom line.
At that point the market weighs far more heavily toward providing services instead of selling software, and then a lot of that involves face to face work.
The math says that offshore outsourcing stands to lose a heaping mountain of money as Open Source moves further into maturity. Of course, domestic IT has already suffered; out of work domestic coders have great potential to inflict spiteful vengeance by producing a GPL'd product that provides the same functionality as the software being written by the people who took their jobs, and then convincing companies to go with the free product instead.
LOL, even if this post gets modded down, the cat is now officially out of the bag.:)
b) Now name one new industry that's being created because of offshoring.
c) Now name one new industry that's being created and is not being offshored as we speak.
Here, I'll help you start out: a) Biotech
The problem is b) Biotech was not created by offshoring.
c) High end Biotech research work is being offshored as we speak. That's called knowledge work, not repetitive work - aka lab tech work - which itself is also being offshored.
When the subject of offshoring comes up, the response by free market advocates is "adapt or die". Name one adaptation that we Americans can achieve that East Indians inherently cannot provide for pennies on our dollar?
What are East Indians genetically incapable of providing in India that you hope to provide your employer here?
Nothing at all. Absolutely nothing. If we allow offshoring to run unchecked, you will find this out the hard way.
Everything I've read at the bethesda site about the actual play time is quite ambiguous. Will there be a huge mess of side quests to get into? I really, REALLY loved that aspect in Morrowind. It's nice to know they'll still have guilds.
Oh come on now! My forest painting is already going for $45,000 in a certain art gallery in San Francisco.
Honestly though, I don't have statistical data. But when someone tells me there's a huge market for people in the fine arts and I know tons of artists who are unemployed, and I have great cause to believe them when they bring up the "starving artist" problem and state that they would be out on the street if they did not have another day job.
Sure, a handful of artists will make it big. They always do. But I call BS on the landslide of jobs thing for artists. I'm just asking for proof, and a handful of employees at Pixar and an article about a hundred artists making it big in artsy San Francisco (and artsy-ness is a trait that I do appreciate, mind you), does not an avalanche of jobs make.
What it means to me is, if you're really really good at being an artist, you will make it big. But if you're really really good at most things, you'll make it big Not everyone can be, though, and that is why our economy needs those "routine" jobs for those "routine" people. "Routine" people are the majority of the world's population. It's a bell curve thing.
Lemme get this straight... so the authorized person types in a code on the keypad to open this door. They can take it with them, right? So what happens if you see them typing in the code and then steal the device? I'm getting dizzy here.
Oh I'm checking it out. In fact, I'm painting the forest right this minute. Now shush, I have a fortune to make. I can hear the bidders gathering outside my house even now. Pixar, here I come!!!
People doing routine jobs become people doing creative jobs. That's where most creativity comes from. Generally speaking, you have to have some experience working in the industry before you can start "innovating."
Mark this post. You tell me how long it takes to start college right now and get a BS / Master's degree for the luke warm or hot jobs of today. You get to name the job, too. I'll accept that number. By this time that many years from now, the job you named, will be on its way overseas and hiring in that field will be in a state of collapse.
Do not be fooled into thinking only routine jobs will go overseas.
Oh and here's another one from the "chicken little" file. Those East Indians doing software testing now will be the wisened coders and project managers of the future. Those project managers will form their own companies using the expertise we gave them.
Then who will their companies compete against? Yup, us.
This game of coming up with skills you can't get in East India is a big deception. They can amass have every skill and creativity point that you can find in Silicon Valley and they'll have it for a fraction of the cost. East India is gathering a huge innovation base because of all their entry level workers and their entrepreneurs combined. Why can't East Indians replace product developers? Are they genetically incapable of learning this skill set? Hardly. Web engineering? C'mon! I do that in my sleep. Innovation services? Here is an example of how weak that job type is... I think it is relevant to point out that law firms are looking to East Indian attorneys to come up with innovative new approaches to US law, so to speak. Now a thing about the legal services thing... the people in India advise, they do not make legal decisions. That is because of US law. If it weren't for the law requiring the attorney be in America, well there you go. So much for paralegals, though. The same thing is happening in IT.
Speaking of non routine work, keep an eye on doctors. American surgeons will (financially speaking) quake with fear of the all powerful and living God almighty when tele surgery matures and medical insurance companies decide to go with remote surgery to make medical care cheaper.
What do you do? What are you planning on doing in the future? I bet all of the above can go overseas today. My project manager job (which I entered into from a WB/SQA background) sure as heck can. I, for one, am looking for a way out of IT. I will miss software testing and bug hunting when it is gone. I hate what I do now but I do what I do now to escape the offshoring tide. I do not want the stress of competing against you to design the "Next Big Thing". Too many "next big things" fail.
I want stability for my wife and baby-on-the-way. You can't raise a family without stability. Worrying about your job going away is not the way to live, it is physically unhealthy, and trust me, it will catch up with you. Even faster if you have a family.
Oh no, oh no, let everyone take art in school now. Go ahead, have at it. There are 100 plus artists in making a monster pile of money. A landslide job boom of that magnitude hasn't been seen since Methuseleh was around. 100 people, man, that's almost the entire population of some major city! I'm stunned, you've really got me on the ropes now!
Why, I think I'll bust out me ol' canvas paint me up a few grand. Hallelujah, brother, I've seen the light!
As I said, for the most part, fine arts people don't make rent. A handful of workers at Pixar - the very best of the best in this universe and beyond - don't make that statement untrue.
I bet you a ton of fine arts grads apply there all the time and get turned down. Feh and meh that.
We need those entry level jobs - software testing and tech support - back - in order to revive what is commonly understood to be a sagging middle class.
Okay, I retract that comment suggesting you're a Republican.
But you're wrong about something else here: the "Democrats" who spied on MLK Jr. were not the Democrats of today. You are talking about Democrats who, at that time, were like the Republicans of today.
Robert Byrd came clean and renounced his racism. David Duke and Strom Thurmond, on the other hand...
If you had said "Clinton spied on his Republican enemies via the FBI, see: filegate" you'd actually be correct. See? I'm a sporting chap, I'm happy to help ya out on this one.:)
Slashdot Mirror
You're talking about the Holocaust Deniers, right?
You mean the Government should take risks in the name of progress, when private industry won't?
Are you crazy?
Close your eyes and repeat this mantra after me... "What would Wall Street doooo? What would Wall Street doooo?"
Technology should move at the speed of profitability, not humanity's best interest.
Now, to your post...
a) and b) All we have for an answer to this is biotech. That's not a lot of jobs, considering that it is going overseas as we speak. That industry will be mostly gone in 5 years.
c) the market for custom $30,000 PCI cards is not very big. How many people are employed in that?
Don't be so smug about the military work being entirely stuck in America:
http://www.therant.us/staff/grassi/12222005.htm
"Still remaining under scrutiny are procurement contracts and how much leeway contractors will be given in offshoring military parts to India and China."
IOW they're thinking about offshoring stuff now. Write your Congresscritter.
Small businesses - enterpreneurs - made up 70% of the employers during Clinton's time, if I recall. They'll be providing face to face services. You'll definitely see an explosion in that.
But as I said, we might be seeing a PILE of offshore-vulnerable jobs coming back if efforts to outlaw personal information offshoring, come to fruition! I'm actually very happy...
Eh, actually, I spoke way too soon about any of this.
2 /13/focus2.html
We may be seeing a TON of jobs come back to America, making this a moot discussion, I just had someone send THIS to me:
http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2006/0
No, they're known for
:)
a) being more expensive to bribe
b) occasionally aware of the presence of the FBI and its legal ability to hunt them down if they commit a crime within the US.
BTW I noticed a few Al Qaeda members have mod access.
Much easier said than done. Do you have any idea of how this would come about if Microsoft continues to promote "the world of applications and devices that run on Windows" on national television?
The same way that IBM and other companies have signed onto Linux and ATI & Nvidia make *cough* drivers *wheeze* for Linux *choke*.
a) ayup, but biotech is going overseas as we speak: http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/ 04/18/MNGBM672L01.DTL
Biotech is an example of the harsh new reality. You go to college now to learn the new hot industry, and by the time you get out? It's already going overseas. You no longer can recoup your educational investment.
b) How does the offshoring industry and services for offshore US workers produce any jobs here? Why would they want anything from here when they can get it there cheaper? Many BPO operations are owned and managed over there. Companies here just arrange deals with them and off they go.
c) Just in time coding/hardware design. Why can't an offshore company provide that? College students are already doing just-in-time outsourcing of programming homework, how far behind is $30,000 custom PCI card production? You're making a big assumption that offshore people won't do less than a $300,000 order.
Who's going to make UAV hardware/software? Americans? Now maybe, but in the near future? Hardly. Where will they get the job experience and expertise for that? You'll have to travel to India to get job experience. Otherwise unmanned aerial vehicle hardware/software design will be done primarily by fresh, inexperienced college grads with no job experience. *ACK!!*
More than likely we'll be farming that out overseas where they will have the most experience in 10 years. Yeah, our leadership is that stupid. And there's another thing... this implies a growth in Government jobs. The choking sound you hear is that of a million anti tax free marketeers needing a Heimlich Maneuver... stat!
On a side note, Government jobs appear to be on a steep increase.
In home tech support and domestic network engineering... now there are jobs that cannot leave. But those are not new industries. I've been doing both since 1995. The market for these are also oversaturated: check the local newspaper and you'll see dozens of such services competing for the market.
Your last point, going into business for yourself, is going to be the most viable option left. The wealthy elite in America are so lazy that businesses like "Doody Duty" are cropping up. I bs you not: http://www.doggydoodyduty.com/
BTW that was a pretty good response. Glad to see at least one free marketer is actually thinking originally.
It's far easier and cheaper to bribe the employees and admin of a data center in Pakistan/India/Russia than it is to bribe someone in the US.
They'll be aiming at tapping some poor admin chap in Bangalore to cough up an entire data center's repository, and when they get all that data, whammo. More IED's, purchased on your credit card.
Then one of those IED's blows up a buddy of yours serving in Iraq. To add insult upon injury, you get to deal with the FBI when they come beating down your door thinking you bought the bomb that blew up your buddy.
Impossible? Hardly. Not even remotely improbable.
by killing the entire concept of a paid programmer altogether.
:)
Theoretically speaking, that is.
If Firefox continues to improve in quality, it will become so superior to the likes of Opera and MSIE that it'll be the biggest and nearly only game in town. At some point, who wants to buy a browser when they can get the free and super secure Firefox version for, potentially, every platform? At some point MicroSoft falls so far behind with MSIE that they cannot afford to continue hiring programmers here or abroad to update it, and they may sell off or close down the MSIE line.
Now if Open Office improves similarly, MS Office could be endangered. Why buy MS Office if you can get an equal ROI for free with Open Office?
Perhaps Linux gets tons of hyper consumer grade (as in, your grandma could use it without breaking a sweat) facelifts, while holding onto its power user underpinnings. Easily done, actually. If all programs are written as procedures in shared object libraries, you could make both command line and graphical user front ends to call them, and a really crazy coder would give the user a 'command line equivalent' submenu option for the GUI version so the wanna-be power user could see how the command line version would have done the work. That would result in perfect scaleability. At some point, Linux catches up with Windows in Suzi Office Worker appeal, and its privacy, anti DRM, etc. advantages, drives Windows into irrelevancy. What's left of driver support problems are resolved, and whammo, MicroSoft finds itself losing sales at a catastrophic level.
Offshore and domestic coders of *any* app could theoretically be, despite their cheapness, be put out of work by a wetware beowulf cluster of hobbyist coders and volunteer testers tired of paying for any software, period, and who are hell bent upon matching the functionality of current for-pay software.
There are a number of factors holding back open source, though, not the least of which is Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt, aka pro-Commercial Software Propaganda.
But if these barriers fall, open source could theoretically force many, many offshore and domestic software manufacturing companies to compete against FREE and BETTER software. This is very bad GNUs for their bottom line.
At that point the market weighs far more heavily toward providing services instead of selling software, and then a lot of that involves face to face work.
The math says that offshore outsourcing stands to lose a heaping mountain of money as Open Source moves further into maturity. Of course, domestic IT has already suffered; out of work domestic coders have great potential to inflict spiteful vengeance by producing a GPL'd product that provides the same functionality as the software being written by the people who took their jobs, and then convincing companies to go with the free product instead.
LOL, even if this post gets modded down, the cat is now officially out of the bag.
a) Name one new industry that's being created.
b) Now name one new industry that's being created because of offshoring.
c) Now name one new industry that's being created and is not being offshored as we speak.
Here, I'll help you start out:
a) Biotech
The problem is
b) Biotech was not created by offshoring.
c) High end Biotech research work is being offshored as we speak. That's called knowledge work, not repetitive work - aka lab tech work - which itself is also being offshored.
When the subject of offshoring comes up, the response by free market advocates is "adapt or die". Name one adaptation that we Americans can achieve that East Indians inherently cannot provide for pennies on our dollar?
What are East Indians genetically incapable of providing in India that you hope to provide your employer here?
Nothing at all. Absolutely nothing. If we allow offshoring to run unchecked, you will find this out the hard way.
What happened to all your coworkers?
Everything I've read at the bethesda site about the actual play time is quite ambiguous. Will there be a huge mess of side quests to get into? I really, REALLY loved that aspect in Morrowind. It's nice to know they'll still have guilds.
Perhaps Oblivion is constrained by the enormous cpu/memory costs of having a LOT of Radiant AI characters in the virtual world?
Even with Quake 2 style graphics, I can imagine processing a lot of NPC's would bog down the cpu.
Can you download free user-made content for the 360 as easily as you can on a PC?
If not, I plan on advising my fellow TES fans to upgrade their PC for this.
That was hilarious!
Oh come on now! My forest painting is already going for $45,000 in a certain art gallery in San Francisco.
Honestly though, I don't have statistical data. But when someone tells me there's a huge market for people in the fine arts and I know tons of artists who are unemployed, and I have great cause to believe them when they bring up the "starving artist" problem and state that they would be out on the street if they did not have another day job.
Sure, a handful of artists will make it big. They always do. But I call BS on the landslide of jobs thing for artists. I'm just asking for proof, and a handful of employees at Pixar and an article about a hundred artists making it big in artsy San Francisco (and artsy-ness is a trait that I do appreciate, mind you), does not an avalanche of jobs make.
What it means to me is, if you're really really good at being an artist, you will make it big. But if you're really really good at most things, you'll make it big Not everyone can be, though, and that is why our economy needs those "routine" jobs for those "routine" people. "Routine" people are the majority of the world's population. It's a bell curve thing.
Lemme get this straight... so the authorized person types in a code on the keypad to open this door. They can take it with them, right? So what happens if you see them typing in the code and then steal the device? I'm getting dizzy here.
Oh I'm checking it out. In fact, I'm painting the forest right this minute. Now shush, I have a fortune to make. I can hear the bidders gathering outside my house even now. Pixar, here I come!!!
People doing routine jobs become people doing creative jobs. That's where most creativity comes from. Generally speaking, you have to have some experience working in the industry before you can start "innovating."
Mark this post. You tell me how long it takes to start college right now and get a BS / Master's degree for the luke warm or hot jobs of today. You get to name the job, too. I'll accept that number. By this time that many years from now, the job you named, will be on its way overseas and hiring in that field will be in a state of collapse.
Do not be fooled into thinking only routine jobs will go overseas.
Oh and here's another one from the "chicken little" file. Those East Indians doing software testing now will be the wisened coders and project managers of the future. Those project managers will form their own companies using the expertise we gave them.
Then who will their companies compete against? Yup, us.
This game of coming up with skills you can't get in East India is a big deception. They can amass have every skill and creativity point that you can find in Silicon Valley and they'll have it for a fraction of the cost. East India is gathering a huge innovation base because of all their entry level workers and their entrepreneurs combined. Why can't East Indians replace product developers? Are they genetically incapable of learning this skill set? Hardly. Web engineering? C'mon! I do that in my sleep. Innovation services? Here is an example of how weak that job type is... I think it is relevant to point out that law firms are looking to East Indian attorneys to come up with innovative new approaches to US law, so to speak. Now a thing about the legal services thing... the people in India advise, they do not make legal decisions. That is because of US law. If it weren't for the law requiring the attorney be in America, well there you go. So much for paralegals, though. The same thing is happening in IT.
Speaking of non routine work, keep an eye on doctors. American surgeons will (financially speaking) quake with fear of the all powerful and living God almighty when tele surgery matures and medical insurance companies decide to go with remote surgery to make medical care cheaper.
What do you do? What are you planning on doing in the future? I bet all of the above can go overseas today. My project manager job (which I entered into from a WB/SQA background) sure as heck can. I, for one, am looking for a way out of IT. I will miss software testing and bug hunting when it is gone. I hate what I do now but I do what I do now to escape the offshoring tide. I do not want the stress of competing against you to design the "Next Big Thing". Too many "next big things" fail.
I want stability for my wife and baby-on-the-way. You can't raise a family without stability. Worrying about your job going away is not the way to live, it is physically unhealthy, and trust me, it will catch up with you. Even faster if you have a family.
Oh no, oh no, let everyone take art in school now. Go ahead, have at it. There are 100 plus artists in making a monster pile of money. A landslide job boom of that magnitude hasn't been seen since Methuseleh was around. 100 people, man, that's almost the entire population of some major city! I'm stunned, you've really got me on the ropes now!
Why, I think I'll bust out me ol' canvas paint me up a few grand. Hallelujah, brother, I've seen the light!
That was good, mgabrys. :)
As I said, for the most part, fine arts people don't make rent. A handful of workers at Pixar - the very best of the best in this universe and beyond - don't make that statement untrue.
I bet you a ton of fine arts grads apply there all the time and get turned down. Feh and meh that.
We need those entry level jobs - software testing and tech support - back - in order to revive what is commonly understood to be a sagging middle class.
http://www.factcheck.org/article.aspx?docID=249 --- this is not a liberal blog.
The shrinking middle class problem was documented in 2003. There's no evidence to show this has reversed in 2006.
That does not in any way say what these "fine arts" people earn.
Okay, I retract that comment suggesting you're a Republican.
:)
But you're wrong about something else here: the "Democrats" who spied on MLK Jr. were not the Democrats of today. You are talking about Democrats who, at that time, were like the Republicans of today.
Robert Byrd came clean and renounced his racism. David Duke and Strom Thurmond, on the other hand...
If you had said "Clinton spied on his Republican enemies via the FBI, see: filegate" you'd actually be correct. See? I'm a sporting chap, I'm happy to help ya out on this one.
Fine arts people, for the most part, don't make rent.