I think that Jobs has his own plan in mind, though I hope he's included "flexibility".
Option 1: Stay Alone
This basically has the iPod and the iTunes Music Store (iTMS) working only together. So far, this situation has proven to be the case, and it's working pretty well: the iPod is the #1 selling MP3 player out there, it's making Apple a butt load of cash (and when you try to carry money in your butt you'll know what I mean), and iTMS is the #1 online music sales system by far - 50 million songs sold compared to Roxio's 5 million. Even comaring apples to , er, apples, just within the 6 months since Napster has been out Apple has made 5 to 1 sales.
If this continues, then eventually Jobs can force out all of the "for profit" music shops out there, and boil it down to just the "for advertising" places, like Wal-Mart, Coke, and Microsoft (which would really be looking to make Windows Media Audio the default standard).
From this, Apple makes AAC the next MP3, and their DRM becomes the "de facto standard" - even though nobody else can use it. Apple makes all the money, and they like it.
This will only come true, however, if Apple keeps a huge lead. What happens when Microsoft (MS) unveals their own online music store (didn't originally they tell folks like Napster that they wouldn't? Well, nevermind that....), sells songs for $0.50 each, takes a hit on profits, and basically acts like they did with Internet Explorer. (Ignoring any antitrust issues - not that Microsoft ever has had to in the past.)
So that goes to Option 2: License the DRM
I have the feeling that Jobs will release this if and only if iTMS and iPod sales start taking a dive. It's his "ace in the hole" to keep iPod sales alive. All it will take is him going to the other stores, making an offer, and then everybody can use the iPod with any service. Sure, it could hurt iTMS removing the one thing that makes it different from everybody else - but Apple is about the hardware.
But what happens if someone like Dell or Gateway come out with their own MP3 player that starts to make the iPod look like yesterday's bulky cell phone? That's when option 3 kicks in:
Option 3: License WMV for the iPod
This one only happens when things are dire and Apple feels they finally have to put in their chips.
The question is, how likely is either option to be? I can see Option 2 and 3 as "someday, maybe" futures. But as of right now, iTMS and the iPod rules the roost, and as long as Apple keeps that up for another 12-24 months, everybody else just in it to "make money selling music" will be so marginalized it won't matter. We're more likely to see Pepsi style promotions than anything else - though Apple had already keep an eye on possible cracks in their popularity: McDonald's may have dumped a iTMS deal in favor of a Sony Online Music one already, though of course nothing is official yet.
2 years I think the dust will be settled. Until then, I'll keep saving up to buy my wife an iPod mini. Hey, if nothing else, they're cute. And she still buys lots of CD's.
Ah, yes, sending the wrong message about antitrust enforcement policies. Like, when someone is found guilty of anticompetitive behavior while a monopoly - actually enforcing a penalty so they don't do it again?
Sorry - my bad, what was I thinking of.
I am somewhat concerned with the EU's choice to allow MS to "license" the API's. From my perspective, those API's should be fully published with no license behind them. MS should not have to reveal the code behind how they work, but the API's should be publicly available, and any updates and changes to those API's (say, though a patch or service pack) should be immediatly updated.
Just my $0.02. As always, it's just my opinion, and I could be wrong.
This is a trend that I've been observing for the last 18 months or so, and I really have to give Penny Arcade kudos for bringing it to a point:
Most gamers, overall, don't trust review sites.
And why should we? We read the same hype for a game coming out in six months from a magazine or one of the new giant conglomerates of GameSpy IGN Gamespot (former Gamespot and Gamecenter) and Daily Radar (the latter which has mercifully passed on). "This game will be the greatest! Look at the graphics! Reasons to bash this other console or game before it's released!"
And when the game comes out, some reviewers will stick to their guns calling it great, some will trash it and we'll never talk about ti again, because the "Next Great Game!" is about to be released.
We've come to see it's all just marketing. It's not that it wasn't before, but back when Voodoo Extreme first popped up, it was just Billy "Wicked" Wilson talking about going to Kung Fu and what was happening in the gaming world.
Then IGN bought it, and what is it now? I haven't even looked at it for probably years now.
It's not that marketing and commercialism is bad, but after awhile it's like having nothing but Ding Dongs to eat. You start to hunger for something more. You start to wonder if your next meal will be different or more of the same.
Tycho and Gabe mentioned this when they bashed reviewers. Not just for "I like this game it's cool and you suck", but for pointing out how innaccurate their reviewers were, as if maybe - just maybe! - the game hadn't truly been played. That some "reporter" had spent an hour with the game, decided they didn't like it, and that was it.
So who do we trust? And that's probably the reason why, as Mr. Gillon pointed out, we're looking not for reviews and articles, but people. People who are like us, or even not like us - but we get to know their opinions and viewpoints so we feel like we can trust them. When Tycho says he likes a game, we know his stances on RPGs or card games or whatever, and can judge based on that.
When Timothy Long of Insert Credit talks about a how he got Astroboy off of a former bunny girl, how he's playing the game is as important as the game review itself. We know him, and while we might not always agree, at least we know why he feels that way about the game.
I read "Bow, Nigger" as referrenced by Mr. Gillon, and thought it was one of the best damn articles I've read this year - and it made me want to go play "Jedi Knight II". It's been sitting on a shelf at home, waiting for me, but now I understand how it can be played.
I wonder what will happen to game magazines in the long run. Readership is down, and I imagine most of them will wind up like either Nintendo Power - really just an advertisement for Nintendo, or Gamefan, a former magazine made of game lovers that crashed during the Dot-Com Bust.
Probably it will be as it always is: cycles. Something new rises up (like Mr. Gillon mentions, the alternative scene in Seattle from musicians tired of being force-fed 80's culture). It has underground movement, then one day somebody realizes you can make money off of it (see also "rap music"). It gets popular, then turned into the same marketing glitz, and then the soul is gone, and it starts up again.
Game magazines will do the same. I predict that in a few years we'll have a true "Fanzine" pop up - maybe all on the Internet, maybe sold through a few fans online, propped up with CafePress like goodies. It will grow, people will love the folks running it, and then it will get bought out and everything good about it will be gone.
And we'll start again. Like we always do. Because in the end, while we don't think we can trust people, we're always looking to reach out and form those communities to tell each other how we feel about what we enjoy.
Some will just do it better than others - and the cycle all starts again.
I've already got an Xbox, which actually is a good time: there's actually some games that I enjoy for it now (Ninja Gaiden, finally got my copy of Steel Battalion, and the complete Morrowind).
But I'm still waiting for it to hit $99 until it's cheap enough for me to buy a second one. Why? Modding, folks. I keep eyeing the idea of turning an Xbox into a little media server to store my DVD collection in DivX or Xvid and keep my plastic disks out of the hand of my children's greasy little fingers.
"Daddy - Blue's Clues won't play!"
"Stop touching the DVD after you lick your fingers!"
To be honest, turning it into a little emulator as well doesn't hurt my feelings either to keep my NES/SNES games pretty (especially as I think the Nintendo is about to die).
I've wondered how often people buy the Xbox not for games but for modding the system for these purposes anyway. I have no interesting in pirating, but being able to watch a fansubbed anime on my TV and now through a Mplayer window would be nice.
The idea itself isn't a totally bad one - at a lower price, I could consider getting one for my kids for long drives or some such. (Then again, by the time they're old enough for me to do that, an iBook at nearly the same price will have the same effect.)
But my questions are these:
1. It plays movies in WMV and audio in WMA. So where am I going to get the WMV movies? WIll I be able to stick a DVD into my computer (assuming I want to get a Windows box, of course) and have it ripped to a format that the device can use? Or am I relying on having some other system (like a Tivo) to record TV shows and let me get that video on my device that way?
And if I have to rip the movies myself with an unofficial DVD, will I still go to jail/get fined?
2. Battery power? I'm seeing 3 hours - seriously? iPod killer with 3 hours of battery power? That's like the Sega handheld devices that were going to kill the Gameboy with 3 hours battery power.
3. TV out? Suppose I do pick it up and put movies on it so when I'm at a friend's house we can watch something. Can I have a TV-out so we don't have to scrunch around a tiny little screen?
Just a few thoughts. I'm sure there are more. Again, I'm not saying this is a bad idea, but I have serious reservations before spending $500 - $800 of my cash. I already spent $300 on an iPod....
I ran into this myself at one job. They wanted employees to be available 24 hours a day in case of an emergency, such as a senior exec having a problem over in Europe. Their plan was to give cell phones to the employees so they could be reached at any time, and to have a someone designated as "on call".
I remember there was a bit of resistance to this concept, mainly because they didn't want to increase the staff to support a 24 hour center. With 2 network admins, that meant that if one was on vacation, the other would be on call 24 hours a day for an entire week! We tried to express that we understood emergencies happened, and tried to remain in contact for server crashes, WAN outages, and so on - but the idea of being a 24 hour help desk without additional staff was too much.
In the end, I quit. Since then, I've tried to be very clear with any other job: my life is not my job. Most places are pretty understanding once you lay out the clear idea that "even geeks need sleep". And that if they need to reach me at any time, they, not I, have to supply and pay for the cell phone.
Usually that works pretty well, and again, most employers are understanding once you lay it out for them. Just be careful of the ones that don't.
Most of the reviews I've seen that give the score 80-odd percent is because it doesn't "add anything new to the game" - they expect as large a change between MGS: Twin Snakes as, say, "Metroid: Zero Mission".
Which I disagree with. Silicon Knights updated the graphics, sound, AI, and others, but they wisely left the rest alone. It's kind of like watching Casablanca, then getting Casablanca on DVD with voice commentary, multiple languages, optional color track, and then getting pissed because they didn't include a new ending where Rick gets the girl.
The point of a "remake" should be fairly simple: update the graphics, maybe some new features that the developers would have done if they had the technology, and update that don't impact the original game's flow or storyline (such as Chrono Triggers monster gallery and multiple ending viewer in the PS One remake of the game), and that should be it.
A remake is useful not to the "old guys" who have played the game, but to the new guys who've never had a chance to play the original and see what the "big deal" was about.
Now we're going to have a war to liberate the sewers....
Shifting of spammers to entertainment
on
Spam Bits
·
· Score: 3, Funny
The yesterday, I recieved what had to be the greatest piece of spam mail I've ever seen.
It had to have been 20 pages long from someone calling himself "Lawrence Jesus Christ", and went on about how they were coming back, and specifically mentioned that the document wasn't spam until the Can-Spam act, how keeping this email from people would allow the sender to sue the company for $7000, a bounce-back would invite a lawsuit for denial of service attack, on and on.
Funniest damned thing I've seen in some time. And I've been wondering if that's the deal with the other spam I've been seeing like how "I had a 36 hour erection with v-i.g.r.@ - click here" or "Bob crossed the room to find the school girls getting rich quick".
No, I'm not making that up. Well, a little - but it seems like spammers are now trying to use humor to get their messages through.
As for Lawrence Jesus Christ or whatever, I deleted it anyway. I'm still waiting for my lawsuit.
Most of us are assuming that the PS3 will be backwards compatible with the PS2, if not still the PS1.
I'm hoping that Nintendo makes the Gamecube 2 compatible with the Gamecube, but there's been no comment on that.
But the Xbox 2 is looking more and more like it will not be backwards compatible with the Xbox 1, and I'm thinking that might be a huge mistake on Microsoft's part.
It usually takes about 12 months for A list titles to appear on any new console. MS was at least smart enough to put Halo on its release titles, which was a good move, but after that it still took some time for another major "must have" exclusive title.
So if the Xbox 2 isn't backwards compatible, I have the feeling that it will be a harder sell. I have all three systems, and some Xbox games I haven't gotten around to yet (Ninja Gaiden is certain a hard-as-nails blast, though). But if I can't play those games on a new Xbox 2, I'll probably just wait 12 months or so until the price dies down.
If the other two systems (GC2 and PS3) are backwards, then it will be a simple pickup. Old system gets sold on eBay, and new system plays maybe 1 new game for it, and all my old games are still valid.
I don't mind have 3 consoles - but I think 4 is just too many, espeically when 2 of them are by the same manufacturer.
I know - "But in the past we didn't care - look at the SNES to N64, or N64 to Gamecube!". Yes, that's true - but we had only 2 consoles really on the market at a time. Now we have 3, and that actually makes a hell of a difference. And now that Sony has pretty much got us used to backwards compatibility, I think that most buyers (especially their parents who don't want to see $200 in old games unplayed by their children because they 'don't work on the new system") now expect that backwards compatibility.
I could be wrong - it's been known to happen. But that's my opinion.
It's not the technology, of course - it's folks like the MPAA and RIAA. And who can blame them? If I buy a DVD, I'm doing it to get a copy of the movie and the other value-added parts.
If I compress that video down to 250 MB, how much easier is that for me to spread around the Internet using Bittorrent or Kazaa or whatever?
Now, I can't claim any naivity here, and I'm not going to. I download movies over the Internet, in the form of fan subbed animes that haven't made it to the states. Let's me know if I'm going to spend $20 on a DVD only to discover I don't like it. Sure, it takes about a full 24 hours to get around 1-2 hours of video (shrink down to 45-90 minutes when you're done with credits that appear at the beginning and end of every anime episode).
But what if that file shrinks to 128 MB? "Great!" goes the MPAA. "Now they're spreading it even faster!"
Personally, I wouldn't mind a Video iPod, though I'm not sure how often I'd use it. Maybe for plane flights or travel with the kids - would make life easier then using my wife's iBook and handing it to the kids in the back seat so they can watch Blue's Clues. 4 year olds just don't know how to treat a laptop gently. A 4 GB video iPod could hold quite a few movies, and with my daughter old enough to manipulate Link around a screen without him running into the walls all the time, and savvy enough with the mouse to run the DVD movies on the laptop herself, she could use a video iPod with no troubles.
But again, back to the issue: shrinking a 90 minute 4 GB DVD movie into a 125 MB file for a 12-15 cm wide screen without making the MPAA go nuts.
Fair use? I'd say "yeah". After all, if I can compress a legally bought CD to an MP3, there should be no reason why I can't do the same with a video.
So that leaves us with the "how". Perhaps it will be something like the iTunes music store, only with movies: You enter the DVD into your computer, and there's a file right there.
Yes, MPAA - you supply the files, or files(s) for those of us who want subtitles. At 125 each, you could easily include 2 versions for anime fans, and 1 version for the majority of the "english only" movies.
You authorize your computer to play the file and up to 3 others. "Oh, no - DRM! Agh!" I know, but hey, we can compromise a little here, right? Just like iTunes: up to 3 computers can play the file, and unlimited handhelds. If you just want to drag-n-drop the file into your portable video iPod or whatever without "licensing" it over the Internet, that just means you can't watch it on your machine.
Unlimited handheld use should be the rule, so if I've got 5 iPods (one for each member of the family, though the last one doesn't spawn from my wife's womb until July, but I'm getting ready), everybody can have a copy of the movie.
Sure, there's the chance that the movie file will be transmitted over the Internet anyway, but if you come up with the codec to view the files (by "you" I mean "MPAA"), then you can charge a small free (say, $1 per video iPod or whatever) as part of the patent cost. Either way, for every iPod sold, you get a buck, so who cares if the files are flying around like crazy? People will either have to license the file (which they can't do past 3 computers, or they have to buy a DVD), or buy a "video iPod" which still makes you the buck.
That's how the MPAA protects its property, and lets us do what they want. If they really want to be cool, they'll release a utility to let us retro-shrink our current DVD movies as well to the same kind of file.
I'm sure there will be some who will scream "ALL DRM EBIL - KILL HIM", and others going "ALL INTERNET USERS ARE EVIL - SLAY HIM FOR BEING A HERITIC", but I think this is a compromise that might work.
Of course, this is just my opinion. I could be wrong.
Sony now has an interesting decision to make: reveal how the PS3 is going to act and look like with enough time to let developers make new games for it, or wait just long enough for Microsoft to shoot itself in the foot.
Sony's probably got most of the specs nailed down already, and their just going over the nit-pick details. If they're clever, they'll just make the system very modular with a range of products:
Regular PS3: No hard drive or ethernet/modem port, costs $299. Add in hard drive/ethernet is $99.
PS3/PSX: Basically the PSX now being sold in Japan, only with PS3 components. Tivo, satellite reciever, built in DVD burner, oh, yeah, and plays PS3 games, costs $700-900.
With this, they can delay right up until the last second what it's going to do and keep MS looking like an also-ran. Personally, I do find it disturbing that rather than blazing their own trail with what could be a great set of hardware (G5-ish chip and all), MS is just sitting back and "Well, whatever RAM they have, we'll have more! Our penis will be bigger!" approach.
Might please the fanboys, but personally, it just makes me want to give the Xbox 2 a long wait until I decide to get one, especially if it doesn't offer backwards compatibility. I have 3 consoles already - I don't need 4.
Possible, but I imagine the biggest issue is with the formatting of the hard drive. I'm not certain that the iPod BIOS contains those instructions on how to set up the hard drive.
If you should happen to do it, let the rest of us know. Would meka n interesting hack.
I've been thinking this is the real reason why Half-Life 2 has been delayed. Don't get me wrong - I'm in no big rush, and since I don't anticipate an "OS X" client in, well, never, it will have to wait until I finally bother to upgrade my home PC.
But from what I've been seeing about Steam, I have the feeling that most of the delays have been figuring out how to make that system work right the first time so they don't have a "first day Ultima Online/Everquest/any other massive online game issue" out there.
A good thing, and it's interesting to watch the baby steps they take to break it (like with this survey) then probably analyze what worked and what didn't.
Not that I believe that Google is really doing their service out of the goodness from their hearts - they're doing it to make money.
But people wonder why I don't want to see a Micorosft Internet Search built into Windows (oh, and made so you can't remove it without damaging the operating system, like you can't remove IE or Media Player or anything else Microsoft decides is essential).
Call me crazy, but MS seems to have this weird habit of shutting down things they don't like. Is this just a stupid mistake? It could be - I mean, block things starting with X to keep kids from porn, right?
Oops - but Xfree85 works, so that can't be it.
MS gives away IE to shut down Netscape. That wasn't the crime that I thought was terrible - it was going to their OEM partners and threatening them with extra high cost of Windows if they put on Netscape.
So if they should take over the search world, can we really trust it to reflect accurately? I'm all for giving something a fair shake, but if before the game really starts they're already blocking alternate product possibilities I think "trust" is something that won't apply to MSN search.
Of course, I could be wrong. Could just be a simple misunderstanding.
Sadly, even if it is, based on their past history, I don't think I could believe that's it.
So let's go back a bit and look over the very short history of music downloading.
First, people discovered MP3's. And that was good.
Then they traded with each other via IRC and FTP systems.
Then along came Napster, and automated the whole process.
Then Napster went bye-bye.
OK, I'm good so far. As of this point in history, the RIAA is making $0 additional dollars out of Internet downloads. Other services are trying out, like MP3.com and emusic.com and so on, but that's not helping the RIAA. Not that I'm terribly concerned about them myself, but I'm sure they are concerned about themselves.
So then this happens:
The rise of the subscriber services. For only $10 to $20 a month, get all the music (within reason, check your personal download service) you want to listen to, and if you want to listen and you're not connected to the Internet, well, tough, we need to verify you, and pity if you want more than maybe 3 machines all listening at once.
Keep the music on your hard drive? Pish-posh! You must be insane.
As we all know, subscriber services have pretty much crashed and burned. And this is the part I don't get:
Why do those who prefer subscriber services keep trying to tell everybody else how great it is? Since Rhapsody and Real Network's service came out, it's been "the consumer will realize how great our service is, and they will come to us with great shedding of tears of joy, and we will ease their music needs with our streaming servers!"
Except that people aren't rushing to subscriber services. Most of these services have just not been doing well.
Moving on in history:
Steve Jobs insults the RIAA in a speach, then introduces the iTunes Music Store, careful not to call it the "Apple" music store to keep "Apple Records" from sueing. It doesn't work, but as the iTunes Music Store sells 1,000,000 songs the first week, which when you think about how Rhapsody had 300,000 subscribers
every, that's pretty cool
So let's get back to Napster 2.0.
Napster 2.0: "Invest in us! We sell music like Steve Jobs and his crew as well!"
RIAA Members: "So how will you make money? Apple's making all of their money with the iPod."
Napster 2.0: "Subscription services - people will love it! And then no more of that pesky downloading of music, since all music lovers are just thieves anyway, right?"
RIAA Members: "Makes sense. Obviously the iTunes store will fail once people see the wonder of subscription services."
Napster 2.0: "We're going to be rich!"
So that's where we are. I know Micorosft likes Napster, and wants them to do well to peddle WMA to the world, and then there's the whole college thing.
And once those college students leave the dorms? Will they say "Hey, let's pay $10 a month to Napster to keep listening to music!", or will they say either:
A. I haven't had to pay for music in years, and now I can't listen to my old stuff. Streaming music stuff - I'll just download it off [insert P2P service here].
Or:
B. Well, guess I'll have to buy the song. May as well use the iTunes store - it works with my iPod.
Napster doesn't really have a "value added" reason to use them over iTunes. Sure, there are WMA devices out there, and I'd be surprised if the average man on the street can name you 1. No, not geeks - I'm sure I'll get calls of the "Archon Mega Zord Power MP3 player!" - average man on the street. Ask them what MP3 player works with Napster, and you'll either get blank looks, or "iPod", and then you'll scream and say "those only work with the iTunes store, you nitwit!"
And then they'll say "Oh. Well, I guess I'll go there instead."
Interesting system. Granted, I can see the advantages as you mention, but it certainly seems that one annoying part is that you could have an inconsistent set of intepretations of the law from judge to judge.
Thanks for letting me know - it does clear up some things about why the Greek police were still acting this way.
You have the Greek supreme court who have ruled the law unconstitutional - yet the Athens police are still enforcing a law that they know will be aquitted. The article even mentions that the cases are all being aquitted, but still the police keep charging people with it at a waste of taxpayer money.
It makes you wonder what the real incentive of the Athens police is. Are they trying to put the Internet Cafes out of business? From their actions, it certainly sounds like it, and if makes you wonder if that's their central aim.
After all, if the legitimate gamers are out, then the only business in town will be illegal gaming.
Right now, the Gameboy Advance system has a huge advantage: library of titles. From turn based strategy games to action, role playing and "quirky" like "WarioWare Megagames Inc", the GBA has just about any toe to toe battle locked up. It's cheap (under $100), batteries last a long time, and a huge library.
Sony has to realize this after seeing the #1 reason why the PS2 kicked the pants off the Xbox: library. Is the later a more powerful system? For the most part, sure - it's hard to argue otherwise. But when you're a gamer looking at 200+ titles including all the PSOne games and built in DVD play as opposed to less titles (and a lower number of prime choice - I'd say 5-10 on the Xbox I'd want to have opposed to 20-40 on the PS2), you've won the battle.
So for Sony to delay the PSP in the US is a good idea. Let the Japanese market "beta test" it, shake out the issues, then go the big market with guns ablazing. By then enough Japanese developers can make their games and have the additional 6 months to pick and choose the good ones to port to the North American market.
Otherwise, they'll just be another N-Gage - an expensive toy that doesn't justify the high cost.
Huh? You might ask. But it's something I've noticed about the OS X version of Halo:
Where's the fucking demo? I mean, I've heard "Halo runs great on my Powerbook" to "Halo runs like a turd on my G5 with a 3 Gigabyte memory card".
So how can I tell? Demo! What don't I see? Demo. So my options?
Well, either not buy it, or pirate the game, test it, then buy a copy. And since I can't do the latter without getting arrested, I guess I'll just never know. And I'm not about to play the game on the Xbox. I tried that for about 5 minutes.
Controllers do not a keyboard/mouse replacement make.
When the iTunes store came out, I went a little nuts, and probably spent more on music in 2 weeks than I had in 2 years.
Why? I could finally get that "one song I wanted" issue out of my system. Why by the entire "Queen: Greatest Hits" when I can't stand "Another one bites the dust", and just want "Bohemian Rhapsody"?
Once that was done, I slowed down. I'll still buy an album once every 2-3 months when the fancy strikes me for something new or when another band joins (I'm still holding my breath for the Beatles to get into the music stores, even though I'm starting to see black spots).
So why use a subscription service? Maybe if I could copy those tracks to my iPod (or some other MP3/portable music device) I could almost see the worth of it, but for $15 a month compared to $10 every 2-3 months, I don't see the worth of it.
Otherwise, I think that Napster, and other online stores like unto it, are pretty much in trouble. As the article states, they really don't have a revenue model. The songs probably barely make enough money for the bandwidth/server costs/customer support (meager though the latter should be), and Apple has made no secret that iPods are driving its profits. Sony has come out with their service with probaby superior encoded tracks, but selling them at $1.99 a song is a death kneal for all but the dedicated fans. At that price, I might as well just buy the CD and rip the songs into FLAC or something instead of wasting time downloading them from Sony.
In the end, I see Apple surviving, then as time goes on perhaps making a bigger chunk from the $0.99 per song track once they become the de facto standard (Apple? A dominate player in something? Shock!) and not having to rely so much on iPod sales. I see advertising based music sales doing pretty well - Coke and so on, but my money's on 12 months from now a lot of those services offering iPod compatible tracks through a licensing deal with Apple.
Of course, I could be wrong, but the trends so far seem to support it.
Slashdot Mirror
I think that Jobs has his own plan in mind, though I hope he's included "flexibility".
Option 1: Stay Alone
This basically has the iPod and the iTunes Music Store (iTMS) working only together. So far, this situation has proven to be the case, and it's working pretty well: the iPod is the #1 selling MP3 player out there, it's making Apple a butt load of cash (and when you try to carry money in your butt you'll know what I mean), and iTMS is the #1 online music sales system by far - 50 million songs sold compared to Roxio's 5 million. Even comaring apples to , er, apples, just within the 6 months since Napster has been out Apple has made 5 to 1 sales.
If this continues, then eventually Jobs can force out all of the "for profit" music shops out there, and boil it down to just the "for advertising" places, like Wal-Mart, Coke, and Microsoft (which would really be looking to make Windows Media Audio the default standard).
From this, Apple makes AAC the next MP3, and their DRM becomes the "de facto standard" - even though nobody else can use it. Apple makes all the money, and they like it.
This will only come true, however, if Apple keeps a huge lead. What happens when Microsoft (MS) unveals their own online music store (didn't originally they tell folks like Napster that they wouldn't? Well, nevermind that....), sells songs for $0.50 each, takes a hit on profits, and basically acts like they did with Internet Explorer. (Ignoring any antitrust issues - not that Microsoft ever has had to in the past.)
So that goes to Option 2: License the DRM
I have the feeling that Jobs will release this if and only if iTMS and iPod sales start taking a dive. It's his "ace in the hole" to keep iPod sales alive. All it will take is him going to the other stores, making an offer, and then everybody can use the iPod with any service. Sure, it could hurt iTMS removing the one thing that makes it different from everybody else - but Apple is about the hardware.
But what happens if someone like Dell or Gateway come out with their own MP3 player that starts to make the iPod look like yesterday's bulky cell phone? That's when option 3 kicks in:
Option 3: License WMV for the iPod
This one only happens when things are dire and Apple feels they finally have to put in their chips.
The question is, how likely is either option to be? I can see Option 2 and 3 as "someday, maybe" futures. But as of right now, iTMS and the iPod rules the roost, and as long as Apple keeps that up for another 12-24 months, everybody else just in it to "make money selling music" will be so marginalized it won't matter. We're more likely to see Pepsi style promotions than anything else - though Apple had already keep an eye on possible cracks in their popularity: McDonald's may have dumped a iTMS deal in favor of a Sony Online Music one already, though of course nothing is official yet.
2 years I think the dust will be settled. Until then, I'll keep saving up to buy my wife an iPod mini. Hey, if nothing else, they're cute. And she still buys lots of CD's.
Ah, yes, sending the wrong message about antitrust enforcement policies. Like, when someone is found guilty of anticompetitive behavior while a monopoly - actually enforcing a penalty so they don't do it again?
Sorry - my bad, what was I thinking of.
I am somewhat concerned with the EU's choice to allow MS to "license" the API's. From my perspective, those API's should be fully published with no license behind them. MS should not have to reveal the code behind how they work, but the API's should be publicly available, and any updates and changes to those API's (say, though a patch or service pack) should be immediatly updated.
Just my $0.02. As always, it's just my opinion, and I could be wrong.
This is a trend that I've been observing for the last 18 months or so, and I really have to give Penny Arcade kudos for bringing it to a point:
Most gamers, overall, don't trust review sites.
And why should we? We read the same hype for a game coming out in six months from a magazine or one of the new giant conglomerates of GameSpy IGN Gamespot (former Gamespot and Gamecenter) and Daily Radar (the latter which has mercifully passed on). "This game will be the greatest! Look at the graphics! Reasons to bash this other console or game before it's released!"
And when the game comes out, some reviewers will stick to their guns calling it great, some will trash it and we'll never talk about ti again, because the "Next Great Game!" is about to be released.
We've come to see it's all just marketing. It's not that it wasn't before, but back when Voodoo Extreme first popped up, it was just Billy "Wicked" Wilson talking about going to Kung Fu and what was happening in the gaming world.
Then IGN bought it, and what is it now? I haven't even looked at it for probably years now.
It's not that marketing and commercialism is bad, but after awhile it's like having nothing but Ding Dongs to eat. You start to hunger for something more. You start to wonder if your next meal will be different or more of the same.
Tycho and Gabe mentioned this when they bashed reviewers. Not just for "I like this game it's cool and you suck", but for pointing out how innaccurate their reviewers were, as if maybe - just maybe! - the game hadn't truly been played. That some "reporter" had spent an hour with the game, decided they didn't like it, and that was it.
So who do we trust? And that's probably the reason why, as Mr. Gillon pointed out, we're looking not for reviews and articles, but people. People who are like us, or even not like us - but we get to know their opinions and viewpoints so we feel like we can trust them. When Tycho says he likes a game, we know his stances on RPGs or card games or whatever, and can judge based on that.
When Timothy Long of Insert Credit talks about a how he got Astroboy off of a former bunny girl, how he's playing the game is as important as the game review itself. We know him, and while we might not always agree, at least we know why he feels that way about the game.
I read "Bow, Nigger" as referrenced by Mr. Gillon, and thought it was one of the best damn articles I've read this year - and it made me want to go play "Jedi Knight II". It's been sitting on a shelf at home, waiting for me, but now I understand how it can be played.
I wonder what will happen to game magazines in the long run. Readership is down, and I imagine most of them will wind up like either Nintendo Power - really just an advertisement for Nintendo, or Gamefan, a former magazine made of game lovers that crashed during the Dot-Com Bust.
Probably it will be as it always is: cycles. Something new rises up (like Mr. Gillon mentions, the alternative scene in Seattle from musicians tired of being force-fed 80's culture). It has underground movement, then one day somebody realizes you can make money off of it (see also "rap music"). It gets popular, then turned into the same marketing glitz, and then the soul is gone, and it starts up again.
Game magazines will do the same. I predict that in a few years we'll have a true "Fanzine" pop up - maybe all on the Internet, maybe sold through a few fans online, propped up with CafePress like goodies. It will grow, people will love the folks running it, and then it will get bought out and everything good about it will be gone.
And we'll start again. Like we always do. Because in the end, while we don't think we can trust people, we're always looking to reach out and form those communities to tell each other how we feel about what we enjoy.
Some will just do it better than others - and the cycle all starts again.
Sorry - I mean my over 10 year old NES and SNES are wearing down, not the company.
I actually see the Xbox (the MS console gaming division) going down before Nintendo (the company) does. My apologies if there was any confusion.
I've already got an Xbox, which actually is a good time: there's actually some games that I enjoy for it now (Ninja Gaiden, finally got my copy of Steel Battalion, and the complete Morrowind).
But I'm still waiting for it to hit $99 until it's cheap enough for me to buy a second one. Why? Modding, folks. I keep eyeing the idea of turning an Xbox into a little media server to store my DVD collection in DivX or Xvid and keep my plastic disks out of the hand of my children's greasy little fingers.
"Daddy - Blue's Clues won't play!"
"Stop touching the DVD after you lick your fingers!"
To be honest, turning it into a little emulator as well doesn't hurt my feelings either to keep my NES/SNES games pretty (especially as I think the Nintendo is about to die).
I've wondered how often people buy the Xbox not for games but for modding the system for these purposes anyway. I have no interesting in pirating, but being able to watch a fansubbed anime on my TV and now through a Mplayer window would be nice.
The idea itself isn't a totally bad one - at a lower price, I could consider getting one for my kids for long drives or some such. (Then again, by the time they're old enough for me to do that, an iBook at nearly the same price will have the same effect.)
But my questions are these:
1. It plays movies in WMV and audio in WMA. So where am I going to get the WMV movies? WIll I be able to stick a DVD into my computer (assuming I want to get a Windows box, of course) and have it ripped to a format that the device can use? Or am I relying on having some other system (like a Tivo) to record TV shows and let me get that video on my device that way?
And if I have to rip the movies myself with an unofficial DVD, will I still go to jail/get fined?
2. Battery power? I'm seeing 3 hours - seriously? iPod killer with 3 hours of battery power? That's like the Sega handheld devices that were going to kill the Gameboy with 3 hours battery power.
3. TV out? Suppose I do pick it up and put movies on it so when I'm at a friend's house we can watch something. Can I have a TV-out so we don't have to scrunch around a tiny little screen?
Just a few thoughts. I'm sure there are more. Again, I'm not saying this is a bad idea, but I have serious reservations before spending $500 - $800 of my cash. I already spent $300 on an iPod....
Could somone go over the diffrences between X11 and Xorg? Is it just a license issue, or are there other differences?
Thank you.
I ran into this myself at one job. They wanted employees to be available 24 hours a day in case of an emergency, such as a senior exec having a problem over in Europe. Their plan was to give cell phones to the employees so they could be reached at any time, and to have a someone designated as "on call".
I remember there was a bit of resistance to this concept, mainly because they didn't want to increase the staff to support a 24 hour center. With 2 network admins, that meant that if one was on vacation, the other would be on call 24 hours a day for an entire week! We tried to express that we understood emergencies happened, and tried to remain in contact for server crashes, WAN outages, and so on - but the idea of being a 24 hour help desk without additional staff was too much.
In the end, I quit. Since then, I've tried to be very clear with any other job: my life is not my job. Most places are pretty understanding once you lay out the clear idea that "even geeks need sleep". And that if they need to reach me at any time, they, not I, have to supply and pay for the cell phone.
Usually that works pretty well, and again, most employers are understanding once you lay it out for them. Just be careful of the ones that don't.
Most of the reviews I've seen that give the score 80-odd percent is because it doesn't "add anything new to the game" - they expect as large a change between MGS: Twin Snakes as, say, "Metroid: Zero Mission".
Which I disagree with. Silicon Knights updated the graphics, sound, AI, and others, but they wisely left the rest alone. It's kind of like watching Casablanca, then getting Casablanca on DVD with voice commentary, multiple languages, optional color track, and then getting pissed because they didn't include a new ending where Rick gets the girl.
The point of a "remake" should be fairly simple: update the graphics, maybe some new features that the developers would have done if they had the technology, and update that don't impact the original game's flow or storyline (such as Chrono Triggers monster gallery and multiple ending viewer in the PS One remake of the game), and that should be it.
A remake is useful not to the "old guys" who have played the game, but to the new guys who've never had a chance to play the original and see what the "big deal" was about.
Now we're going to have a war to liberate the sewers....
The yesterday, I recieved what had to be the greatest piece of spam mail I've ever seen.
It had to have been 20 pages long from someone calling himself "Lawrence Jesus Christ", and went on about how they were coming back, and specifically mentioned that the document wasn't spam until the Can-Spam act, how keeping this email from people would allow the sender to sue the company for $7000, a bounce-back would invite a lawsuit for denial of service attack, on and on.
Funniest damned thing I've seen in some time. And I've been wondering if that's the deal with the other spam I've been seeing like how "I had a 36 hour erection with v-i.g.r.@ - click here" or "Bob crossed the room to find the school girls getting rich quick".
No, I'm not making that up. Well, a little - but it seems like spammers are now trying to use humor to get their messages through.
As for Lawrence Jesus Christ or whatever, I deleted it anyway. I'm still waiting for my lawsuit.
What's that - that smell?
I can almost - *sniff* - yes, like rancid meat and sugar.
Good Lord! Apple released the lawyers! Everybody, run for your lives!
Most of us are assuming that the PS3 will be backwards compatible with the PS2, if not still the PS1.
I'm hoping that Nintendo makes the Gamecube 2 compatible with the Gamecube, but there's been no comment on that.
But the Xbox 2 is looking more and more like it will not be backwards compatible with the Xbox 1, and I'm thinking that might be a huge mistake on Microsoft's part.
It usually takes about 12 months for A list titles to appear on any new console. MS was at least smart enough to put Halo on its release titles, which was a good move, but after that it still took some time for another major "must have" exclusive title.
So if the Xbox 2 isn't backwards compatible, I have the feeling that it will be a harder sell. I have all three systems, and some Xbox games I haven't gotten around to yet (Ninja Gaiden is certain a hard-as-nails blast, though). But if I can't play those games on a new Xbox 2, I'll probably just wait 12 months or so until the price dies down.
If the other two systems (GC2 and PS3) are backwards, then it will be a simple pickup. Old system gets sold on eBay, and new system plays maybe 1 new game for it, and all my old games are still valid.
I don't mind have 3 consoles - but I think 4 is just too many, espeically when 2 of them are by the same manufacturer.
I know - "But in the past we didn't care - look at the SNES to N64, or N64 to Gamecube!". Yes, that's true - but we had only 2 consoles really on the market at a time. Now we have 3, and that actually makes a hell of a difference. And now that Sony has pretty much got us used to backwards compatibility, I think that most buyers (especially their parents who don't want to see $200 in old games unplayed by their children because they 'don't work on the new system") now expect that backwards compatibility.
I could be wrong - it's been known to happen. But that's my opinion.
It's not the technology, of course - it's folks like the MPAA and RIAA. And who can blame them? If I buy a DVD, I'm doing it to get a copy of the movie and the other value-added parts.
If I compress that video down to 250 MB, how much easier is that for me to spread around the Internet using Bittorrent or Kazaa or whatever?
Now, I can't claim any naivity here, and I'm not going to. I download movies over the Internet, in the form of fan subbed animes that haven't made it to the states. Let's me know if I'm going to spend $20 on a DVD only to discover I don't like it. Sure, it takes about a full 24 hours to get around 1-2 hours of video (shrink down to 45-90 minutes when you're done with credits that appear at the beginning and end of every anime episode).
But what if that file shrinks to 128 MB? "Great!" goes the MPAA. "Now they're spreading it even faster!"
Personally, I wouldn't mind a Video iPod, though I'm not sure how often I'd use it. Maybe for plane flights or travel with the kids - would make life easier then using my wife's iBook and handing it to the kids in the back seat so they can watch Blue's Clues. 4 year olds just don't know how to treat a laptop gently. A 4 GB video iPod could hold quite a few movies, and with my daughter old enough to manipulate Link around a screen without him running into the walls all the time, and savvy enough with the mouse to run the DVD movies on the laptop herself, she could use a video iPod with no troubles.
But again, back to the issue: shrinking a 90 minute 4 GB DVD movie into a 125 MB file for a 12-15 cm wide screen without making the MPAA go nuts.
Fair use? I'd say "yeah". After all, if I can compress a legally bought CD to an MP3, there should be no reason why I can't do the same with a video.
So that leaves us with the "how". Perhaps it will be something like the iTunes music store, only with movies: You enter the DVD into your computer, and there's a file right there.
Yes, MPAA - you supply the files, or files(s) for those of us who want subtitles. At 125 each, you could easily include 2 versions for anime fans, and 1 version for the majority of the "english only" movies.
You authorize your computer to play the file and up to 3 others. "Oh, no - DRM! Agh!" I know, but hey, we can compromise a little here, right? Just like iTunes: up to 3 computers can play the file, and unlimited handhelds. If you just want to drag-n-drop the file into your portable video iPod or whatever without "licensing" it over the Internet, that just means you can't watch it on your machine.
Unlimited handheld use should be the rule, so if I've got 5 iPods (one for each member of the family, though the last one doesn't spawn from my wife's womb until July, but I'm getting ready), everybody can have a copy of the movie.
Sure, there's the chance that the movie file will be transmitted over the Internet anyway, but if you come up with the codec to view the files (by "you" I mean "MPAA"), then you can charge a small free (say, $1 per video iPod or whatever) as part of the patent cost. Either way, for every iPod sold, you get a buck, so who cares if the files are flying around like crazy? People will either have to license the file (which they can't do past 3 computers, or they have to buy a DVD), or buy a "video iPod" which still makes you the buck.
That's how the MPAA protects its property, and lets us do what they want. If they really want to be cool, they'll release a utility to let us retro-shrink our current DVD movies as well to the same kind of file.
I'm sure there will be some who will scream "ALL DRM EBIL - KILL HIM", and others going "ALL INTERNET USERS ARE EVIL - SLAY HIM FOR BEING A HERITIC", but I think this is a compromise that might work.
Of course, this is just my opinion. I could be wrong.
Sony now has an interesting decision to make: reveal how the PS3 is going to act and look like with enough time to let developers make new games for it, or wait just long enough for Microsoft to shoot itself in the foot.
Sony's probably got most of the specs nailed down already, and their just going over the nit-pick details. If they're clever, they'll just make the system very modular with a range of products:
Regular PS3: No hard drive or ethernet/modem port, costs $299. Add in hard drive/ethernet is $99.
PS3/PSX: Basically the PSX now being sold in Japan, only with PS3 components. Tivo, satellite reciever, built in DVD burner, oh, yeah, and plays PS3 games, costs $700-900.
With this, they can delay right up until the last second what it's going to do and keep MS looking like an also-ran. Personally, I do find it disturbing that rather than blazing their own trail with what could be a great set of hardware (G5-ish chip and all), MS is just sitting back and "Well, whatever RAM they have, we'll have more! Our penis will be bigger!" approach.
Might please the fanboys, but personally, it just makes me want to give the Xbox 2 a long wait until I decide to get one, especially if it doesn't offer backwards compatibility. I have 3 consoles already - I don't need 4.
Possible, but I imagine the biggest issue is with the formatting of the hard drive. I'm not certain that the iPod BIOS contains those instructions on how to set up the hard drive.
If you should happen to do it, let the rest of us know. Would meka n interesting hack.
I've been thinking this is the real reason why Half-Life 2 has been delayed. Don't get me wrong - I'm in no big rush, and since I don't anticipate an "OS X" client in, well, never, it will have to wait until I finally bother to upgrade my home PC.
But from what I've been seeing about Steam, I have the feeling that most of the delays have been figuring out how to make that system work right the first time so they don't have a "first day Ultima Online/Everquest/any other massive online game issue" out there.
A good thing, and it's interesting to watch the baby steps they take to break it (like with this survey) then probably analyze what worked and what didn't.
Not that I believe that Google is really doing their service out of the goodness from their hearts - they're doing it to make money.
But people wonder why I don't want to see a Micorosft Internet Search built into Windows (oh, and made so you can't remove it without damaging the operating system, like you can't remove IE or Media Player or anything else Microsoft decides is essential).
Call me crazy, but MS seems to have this weird habit of shutting down things they don't like. Is this just a stupid mistake? It could be - I mean, block things starting with X to keep kids from porn, right?
Oops - but Xfree85 works, so that can't be it.
MS gives away IE to shut down Netscape. That wasn't the crime that I thought was terrible - it was going to their OEM partners and threatening them with extra high cost of Windows if they put on Netscape.
So if they should take over the search world, can we really trust it to reflect accurately? I'm all for giving something a fair shake, but if before the game really starts they're already blocking alternate product possibilities I think "trust" is something that won't apply to MSN search.
Of course, I could be wrong. Could just be a simple misunderstanding.
Sadly, even if it is, based on their past history, I don't think I could believe that's it.
OK, I'm good so far. As of this point in history, the RIAA is making $0 additional dollars out of Internet downloads. Other services are trying out, like MP3.com and emusic.com and so on, but that's not helping the RIAA. Not that I'm terribly concerned about them myself, but I'm sure they are concerned about themselves.
So then this happens:
As we all know, subscriber services have pretty much crashed and burned. And this is the part I don't get:
Why do those who prefer subscriber services keep trying to tell everybody else how great it is? Since Rhapsody and Real Network's service came out, it's been "the consumer will realize how great our service is, and they will come to us with great shedding of tears of joy, and we will ease their music needs with our streaming servers!"
Except that people aren't rushing to subscriber services. Most of these services have just not been doing well.
Moving on in history:
So let's get back to Napster 2.0.
So that's where we are. I know Micorosft likes Napster, and wants them to do well to peddle WMA to the world, and then there's the whole college thing.
And once those college students leave the dorms? Will they say "Hey, let's pay $10 a month to Napster to keep listening to music!", or will they say either:
A. I haven't had to pay for music in years, and now I can't listen to my old stuff. Streaming music stuff - I'll just download it off [insert P2P service here].
Or:
B. Well, guess I'll have to buy the song. May as well use the iTunes store - it works with my iPod.
Napster doesn't really have a "value added" reason to use them over iTunes. Sure, there are WMA devices out there, and I'd be surprised if the average man on the street can name you 1. No, not geeks - I'm sure I'll get calls of the "Archon Mega Zord Power MP3 player!" - average man on the street. Ask them what MP3 player works with Napster, and you'll either get blank looks, or "iPod", and then you'll scream and say "those only work with the iTunes store, you nitwit!"
And then they'll say "Oh. Well, I guess I'll go there instead."
Apple's got it all d
Interesting system. Granted, I can see the advantages as you mention, but it certainly seems that one annoying part is that you could have an inconsistent set of intepretations of the law from judge to judge.
Thanks for letting me know - it does clear up some things about why the Greek police were still acting this way.
You have the Greek supreme court who have ruled the law unconstitutional - yet the Athens police are still enforcing a law that they know will be aquitted. The article even mentions that the cases are all being aquitted, but still the police keep charging people with it at a waste of taxpayer money.
It makes you wonder what the real incentive of the Athens police is. Are they trying to put the Internet Cafes out of business? From their actions, it certainly sounds like it, and if makes you wonder if that's their central aim.
After all, if the legitimate gamers are out, then the only business in town will be illegal gaming.
Right now, the Gameboy Advance system has a huge advantage: library of titles. From turn based strategy games to action, role playing and "quirky" like "WarioWare Megagames Inc", the GBA has just about any toe to toe battle locked up. It's cheap (under $100), batteries last a long time, and a huge library.
Sony has to realize this after seeing the #1 reason why the PS2 kicked the pants off the Xbox: library. Is the later a more powerful system? For the most part, sure - it's hard to argue otherwise. But when you're a gamer looking at 200+ titles including all the PSOne games and built in DVD play as opposed to less titles (and a lower number of prime choice - I'd say 5-10 on the Xbox I'd want to have opposed to 20-40 on the PS2), you've won the battle.
So for Sony to delay the PSP in the US is a good idea. Let the Japanese market "beta test" it, shake out the issues, then go the big market with guns ablazing. By then enough Japanese developers can make their games and have the additional 6 months to pick and choose the good ones to port to the North American market.
Otherwise, they'll just be another N-Gage - an expensive toy that doesn't justify the high cost.
Huh? You might ask. But it's something I've noticed about the OS X version of Halo:
Where's the fucking demo? I mean, I've heard "Halo runs great on my Powerbook" to "Halo runs like a turd on my G5 with a 3 Gigabyte memory card".
So how can I tell? Demo! What don't I see? Demo. So my options?
Well, either not buy it, or pirate the game, test it, then buy a copy. And since I can't do the latter without getting arrested, I guess I'll just never know. And I'm not about to play the game on the Xbox. I tried that for about 5 minutes.
Controllers do not a keyboard/mouse replacement make.
Then how are they suppose to learn if we don't teach them?
When the iTunes store came out, I went a little nuts, and probably spent more on music in 2 weeks than I had in 2 years.
Why? I could finally get that "one song I wanted" issue out of my system. Why by the entire "Queen: Greatest Hits" when I can't stand "Another one bites the dust", and just want "Bohemian Rhapsody"?
Once that was done, I slowed down. I'll still buy an album once every 2-3 months when the fancy strikes me for something new or when another band joins (I'm still holding my breath for the Beatles to get into the music stores, even though I'm starting to see black spots).
So why use a subscription service? Maybe if I could copy those tracks to my iPod (or some other MP3/portable music device) I could almost see the worth of it, but for $15 a month compared to $10 every 2-3 months, I don't see the worth of it.
Otherwise, I think that Napster, and other online stores like unto it, are pretty much in trouble. As the article states, they really don't have a revenue model. The songs probably barely make enough money for the bandwidth/server costs/customer support (meager though the latter should be), and Apple has made no secret that iPods are driving its profits. Sony has come out with their service with probaby superior encoded tracks, but selling them at $1.99 a song is a death kneal for all but the dedicated fans. At that price, I might as well just buy the CD and rip the songs into FLAC or something instead of wasting time downloading them from Sony.
In the end, I see Apple surviving, then as time goes on perhaps making a bigger chunk from the $0.99 per song track once they become the de facto standard (Apple? A dominate player in something? Shock!) and not having to rely so much on iPod sales. I see advertising based music sales doing pretty well - Coke and so on, but my money's on 12 months from now a lot of those services offering iPod compatible tracks through a licensing deal with Apple.
Of course, I could be wrong, but the trends so far seem to support it.