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User: sexconker

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Comments · 13,379

  1. Re:Well? on The Tuesday Birthday Problem · · Score: 1

    This is long, but please read it for an ACTUAL EXPLANATION of what is going on.

    -----
    You are invited to a party by an old friend. When you show up, he opens the door and welcomes you.
    -----
    Hello and welcome to my home.
    As we get the party started, I would like to play a little game that I think you will enjoy. All my guests today have played this game and I'd love for you to play too.

    First I would like to introduce you to my family.
    I have two children. I'd like to see if you can guess whether they are a boy or girl before you meet them.
    Let us bring one out shall we? Have you made your guess? What do you think the odds are? I assure you, we're a perfectly normal family.

    Here's Chris, my son. Did you guess right? The odds of being correct were 1 in 2, of course.

    Next, I'd like you to meet my other child. Would you care to guess again? What are the odds this time?

    Two children can of course be:

    Boy Boy @ 1/4
    Boy Girl @ 1/2
    Girl Girl @ 1/4

    Given that Chris is my son, what are the odds that my other child is a boy?

    Simple intuition may suggest that the odds are 1 in 2. But let's try math, shall we?
    We all know that P(Y|X) = P(XY)/P(X).

    If we let
    X = That I have at least 1 boy
    Y = That both are boys

    Then
    P(X) = 3/4
    P(XY) = P(Y) = 1/4
    P(Y|X) = 1/4 / 3/4 = 1/3

    Aha! We see that the odds are indeed 1 in 3 that my other child is also a boy. This also works out intuitively. I assure you I brought out my children in a random order. Given that one of my two children is a boy, we know that there are 3 possible outcomes, and all are equally likely. Only one of those outcomes is that both are boys, and as such, the odds are 1 in 3!

    Now, as you make your guess shall we put a wager on the outcome?
    If you wager $100 that my other child is a girl, I'll pay you $60 if you are right.

    Given the odds, you're expected winnings are (2/3 * 60) - (1/3 * 100) = $7.66 .

    You can of course, take the other bet, that my other child is a boy.
    If you wager $100 that my other child is a boy, I'll pay you $200 if you are right.

    Given the odds, you're expected winnings are (1/3 * 200) - (2/3 * 100) = $0.00 .

    Would you care to make the wager? Which one?

    Ah, here's my wife now with my other child, Alex.
    As you can see, she's due any day now. Then we'll know the result of our wager!
    -----
    Your host thinks he's pretty clever. After you agree to take the first wager, he reveals that all the other guests have done the same thing, and that he stands to make quite a decent amount of money off of tonight's party, since he has invited 100 guests.

    He's trying to trick us. We're guests at his party, and he's giving us two wagers. With the odds he suggests, the smart guests will take the first wager, that his other child is a girl, because it has a higher expected payout.

    When he reveals that his wife is still pregnant, and that the sex is unknown, our intuition kicks in again. Strongly. You KNOW that there is a 50/50 chance on the sex of that child. Thus, the odds he gave you in the wager are skewed. The the first wager is skewed in his favor (you expect to lose $20), while the second wager is skewed in your favor (you expect to gain $50).

    The man is offering the wager to all the guests at the party, which we now know to be a baby shower.

    But where did the reasoning he offered, and that you agreed with, go wrong? The fact that the sex of the unborn child is not known makes no difference, as the man assured us he brought forth his children randomly. Indeed, he could have brought out his pregnant wife and asked you to wager if his other child would be of the same or opposite gender. He could have walked through the same reasoning, stating "If this child is born a boy, then..." and "If this child is born a girl, then...", with both cases yielding the same 1 in 3 outcome as he presented to you initially.

    The problem here is that there are not four differ

  2. Re:Too noisy and too much heat waste on Seagate Releases 3TB External Drive for $250 · · Score: 1

    How is this insightful?
    It is simply wrong and misguided.

    You're talking about 2.5" SATA drives running only off of the data cable (which is impossible, as you state).

    The GP was talking about 2.5" drives running off a single USB cable.

    For a SATA drive to run off of USB at all, there would need to be a controller between them. You can't power SATA drives via the SATA data connection. But you can power it via the SATA power connection. Simply take the power lines from the USB cable and pull them over to the appropriates pins in the SATA power connector.

    You can easily power many 2.5" SATA drives via the 5v @ 500 mA USB provides. A decent 2.5" enclosure will have a USB hookup, an eSata hookup, and a 5V barrel jack hookup. They'll often provide you with a USB Y passthrough cable. One end plugs into the drive, the other end has two USB connectors. One goes into the PC, and if the drive works, you're done. If not, plug the other connector into another USB port for more power. The second connector is a passthrough connector, so you don't lose 2 USB ports. Low-power or self-powered devices (mice, keyboards, scanners, printers) can run off of that passthrough connection unimpeded.

    http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/8284/splittedcable.jpg

  3. Re:Interested to know... on iOS Update May Tackle iPhone 4's Antenna Problems · · Score: 1

    But if you test it with a multimeter, you will find that there is already continuity between the two antenna halves...

    That continuity would be your multimeter, silly.

  4. Re:3D Porn is here now! on Porn Industry Ready To Drop Flash · · Score: 1

    I think you mean VD.

  5. Re:Interested to know... on iOS Update May Tackle iPhone 4's Antenna Problems · · Score: 2, Informative

    It is a short. By bridging the bezels you alter the electrical length, and thus the resonant frequency, of the antenna. It happens 100% of the time you bridge the bezels. Whether or not you lose reception a little bit or all the way depends on the many other factors that affect your reception normally.

  6. Re:The difference between Amazon and Netflix on Amazon Opposes Plan To End Saturday Mail Delivery · · Score: 1

    Or about 5 minutes of active time and about an hour of passive waiting while the DVDs were ripped.

  7. Re:The difference between Amazon and Netflix on Amazon Opposes Plan To End Saturday Mail Delivery · · Score: 2, Interesting

    That's nothing. When Blockbuster Online first started... $18 / month Get 3 DVDs in the mail on Monday morning. "Watch" them, and head to Blockbuster on Monday evening. At Blockbuster, turn them in and get 3 DVDs from the store (free). Get 3 DVDs in the mail on Wednesday morning. "Watch" them, and head to Blockbuster on Wednesday evening. At Blockbuster, turn them in and get 3 DVDs from the store (free). Also turn in the 3 DVDs you got from the store on Monday. ... Plus they gave you coupons each month for a free game or movie rental. And coupons for cheap popcorn and candy. Came out to about 76 DVDs a month. It was less than a quarter per DVD.

  8. Re:NYC Governor? on NY Governor Wants To Expand DNA Database · · Score: 4, Informative

    As a New Yorker, I've never quite understood why Albany is the capital and not NYC.

    New York city has some great things, but they're merely the occasional nut in the turd that is the main course. Have you ever seen a sitcom on TV? Most of them take place in New York, and most of them feature annoying, self-absorbed douche bags like Ted Mosby.

  9. Re:Seems to me on Might Shatner Boldly Lead Canada As Governor? · · Score: 1

    You are wrong. California is fucked because of the legislature, not Arnold.

  10. Re:IS THIS WHAT YOU WANTED? on Might Shatner Boldly Lead Canada As Governor? · · Score: 2, Informative

    Which shows the lengths they're prepared to go to...

    Which shows the lengths to which they're prepared to go...

  11. Re:If Microsoft or the government did this on States Launch Joint Probe of Google Wi-Fi Snooping · · Score: 1

    First off, Google didn't go around with the purpose of collecting and analyzing your communications

    Actually, they did. They chose, configured, deployed, and ran the software that let them do this. They had to store and archive all of those raw packets. They did it for over 3 years. Are you naive enough to think it was all an accident?

    Google's goal was taking pictures for their streetview service and locating wifi networks to use for geolocation, a fairly common practice.

    All Google needed to map open WiFi access points was a 5-column table: ID, LOCATION, SSID, ENCRYPTION_SCHEME, DATE_SEEN

  12. Why Mobile Innovation Outpaces PC Innovation on Why Mobile Innovation Outpaces PC Innovation · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Because PCs sit at home while mobile devices, being mobile, get trotted out in public. They are a fashion accessory and fucktards will pay gobs and gobs of money, every fucking year, for useless, backwards shit and not give a crap about the actual good shit.

    Because when you start from zero, you've got nowhere to go but up. All the useful innovation is simply copied over from the PC realm when mobile devices can handle it (size, performance, battery).

    Because when you've got a "new" market, there is no status quo with regards to who owns that shit. Companies will scramble to get a good seat as a top supplier. When the smaller players get wiped out, the big players will become Intel & MS & IBM - actively attacking innovation until someone scrapes up enough money (debt) and effort (3rd-world / open-source slaves) to challenge them. The small players will enjoy some success until the big players finally react with the budget of a million SUNs and make them irrelevant again.

    There's something I don't get, though: Who are the fucks that see innovation in the market? I see shitty devices that can't do a tenth of the shit that my PC can, and I see them following the same pattern as PCs did decades ago, for better (features, performance) and worse (players getting big, competitors dying off, innovation being choked). There is no innovation here. Everything has been completely predictable, completely shitty compared to existing offerings, and completely expensive.

  13. Re:Have they figured out the safety aspect? on Carbon Nanotube Batteries Pack More Punch · · Score: 1

    Can you name the truck with four wheel drive,
    smells like a steak and seats thirty-five?

    Canyonero! Canyonero!

    Well, it goes real slow with the hammer down,
    It's the country-fried truck endorsed by a clown!

    Canyonero! (Yah!) Canyonero!
    [Krusty:] Hey Hey

    The Federal Highway commission has ruled the
    Canyonero unsafe for highway or city driving.

    Canyonero!

    12 yards long, 2 lanes wide,
    65 tons of American Pride!

    Canyonero! Canyonero!

    Top of the line in utility sports,
    Unexplained fires are a matter for the courts!

    Canyonero! Canyonero! (Yah!)

    She blinds everybody with her super high beams,
    She's a squirrel crushing, deer smacking, driving machine!

    Canyonero!-oh woah, Canyonero! (Yah!)

    Drive Canyonero!

    Woah Canyonero!

    Woah!

  14. Re:This is a stupid formula on California Wants To Put E-Ads On License Plates · · Score: 1

    Still don't use a cellphone while driving - math doesn't work out unless I talk only in binary (yes/no).

    Try talking in English and doing the math in binary.

  15. Re:This is a stupid formula on California Wants To Put E-Ads On License Plates · · Score: 1

    How many people stay the requisite 3 seconds behind other cars? (or even longer on wet/icey roads)

    How many people are aware of why that 3 second rule exists and understand it enough to obey it?

    Requisite?
    I think it's you who doesn't understand the 3 second rule. It's there to allow:

    0.5 seconds of reaction time
    1 second of "I'll coast to save gas. I'm sure he'll get off the brake soon."
    0.5 second of half-hearted braking
    0.5 seconds of OHSHIT braking
    0.5 seconds of stopping distance variability

    All you need is a 1 second rule with a "PAY ATTENTION" corollary.

  16. Re:Programmable Number Plates on California Wants To Put E-Ads On License Plates · · Score: 1

    In Monterey California, the speed limit is lower on their section of Hwy 101 from the rest of 101 and it is used as a 24x7 ticket revenue stream.

    In Hollywood California, the speed limit is lower on their section of Hwy 101 from the rest of 101 and it is used as a 24x7 parking lot.

  17. Re:Programmable Number Plates on California Wants To Put E-Ads On License Plates · · Score: 1

    Would you also like a picture of your manhood on the rear bumper? Cuz that's about as classy.

    Truck Nutz?

  18. Re:I'm alarmed... on Google Street View Wi-Fi Data Includes Passwords, Email Content · · Score: 1

    Wow, you're an idiot.

    So Google just forgot to RTFM for the software they chose and were using for years?
    Google just didn't notice they were capturing full packets for 3 years?
    Google just happened to save all of that data?

    I'm all for scepticism and critically evaluating companies based on trust. But as far as I can tell Google is about the most open and trustworthy company of any tech company going around. I judge them by their actions and their statements and so far I'm happy with what I see.

    Oh, so you're a blind Google fanboy, that explains it.

  19. Re:I'm alarmed... on Google Street View Wi-Fi Data Includes Passwords, Email Content · · Score: 1

    There is direct evidence that this is not the case.

    No there isn't. And you are a retard for buying into their horse shit.

    They did it knowingly.
    They did it on purpose.
    They did it to get your fucking data.

    Even if Google was out and about sniffing ONLY for WiFi access points, why in the fuck would they need to record actual packets?

    All they fucking need for what they claim they were doing is an SSID, whether or not it's open, and where it's located.

    Google is an advertising company and they should be treated as such when deciding how much to trust them.

  20. Re:Tune in a half-hour early... on IBM's Question-Answering System "Watson" Revisited · · Score: 1

    I've watched the Wheel for ages.

    For a "normal" spin:
    A woman will spin it for a little less than a single revolution.
    A man will spin it for a little more than a single revolution.

    Your best barometer of whether or not to spin harder or softer is what happened last time, of course, but you can also try to listen for a certain pitch before you release the wheel.

    Of course, they put you above the wheel and make you reach over your scoreboard in an attempt to limit your control. I believe they also have rules against windups (reaching down, grabbing a peg, rotating the wheel back, then spinning the wheel).

    The Wheel of Fortune wheel is really predictable. There's very little variation in results when you compare it to a more free-floating wheel like the one on the the Price is Right or the Big Spin. These shows encourage exaggerated spins because they're exciting and give a chance to small talk. Wheel of Fortune limits big spins and controlled spins because if people had wasted more time or had more control, they'd be left with nothing but multi player hangman with people trying to solve the wheel more than they solve the puzzle.

  21. Re:It's not a smartphone OS on Microsoft To Add Yet Another Smartphone OS This Year · · Score: 1

    I usually expect more Slashdoters to realize this is a B.S. article but so far only you.

    You mean people still aren't tipped off by the line at the top that reads "Posted by timothy on Friday June 18, @03:47AM"?

  22. Re:THQ and Viacom v. AceKard on Nintendo 3DS Early Impressions · · Score: 1

    There is custom firmware on the AceKard 2i. If the company goes kaput, it doesn't matter. Others will fix it and push out new firmware.

    If there was a DSi game worth stealing, we'd have more effort on that front. DS mode is the only mode that people give a shit about.

  23. Re:Why the 3DS is relevant here on Nintendo 3DS Early Impressions · · Score: 1

    Maybe he's also got a short memory and therefore forgot how Sony got so big in the gaming arena in the first place (because the big guys back in the day, Sega and, yes, Nintendo, got too complacent). I don't see any one gaming company "destroying" any other - all that will happen is cycles where one grows in popularity, becomes complacent/greedy and then someone else comes from behind and steals a march on them.

    So, you mention Sega yet you don't remember what happened to them?
    Or do you still believe the Dreamcast 2 will come out on 10/10/10, 11/11/11, or 12/12/12?

  24. Re:I see.... on Nintendo 3DS Early Impressions · · Score: 2, Informative

    AceKard2i

    Bought it when I got my DSi (around launch).
    Works with the latest DSi firmware.

    There was a period where it didn't work with the new firmware, but they did release an update that fixed it.

    The card now poses as Danny Phantom.
    Nintendo can't block the card without blocking that game. (In theory...)

  25. Re:Interesting... on Why Intel Wants To Network Your Clothes Dryer · · Score: 5, Insightful

    mandate that all appliances (DVD players, TV's, etc) had an actual, PHYSICAL POWER SWITCH rather than being electrical vampires [sciencedaily.com].

    There's no reason every fucking device on the planet has to have a goddamn clock, and much less that it needs to eat more than 2 watts 24/7 just to wait for a power-on signal from some lazy fatass who can't stand up and walk 8 feet from the couch to turn it on.

    Horse shit horse shit horse shit horse shit.

    Buy a Kill-A-Watt
    Measure the actual power consumption of your devices in standby mode
    Find that they're all immeasurably close to 0

    I have a wide variety of chargers, adapters, power strips, surge protectors, AV gear, gaming systems, etc. None of them draw so much as a single watt of power when in standby mode.

    The claims that I need to buy a smart power strip to shut off my array of chargers, or that governments need to mandate that devices come with GREEN FEATURE #246187 is utter horse shit.

    You claim at least 15%.
    Show me the fucking numbers, measured from appliances in your house. I've measured my shit, and I know these claims are lies.

    You want to ACTUALLY conserve energy use?
    Fix your insulation. The vast majority of homes in the US and the world have shitty, shitty insulation.

    Beyond that, yes, I want every device to have a physical power switch. Why? Because I like having physical control over my shit.