I used to visit this site to watch various network broadcast when I had Dish Network and would lose the signal. The site did embed the video streams, but almost all of them came from Justin.tv. In fact, if you clicked on the video, you went straight to Justin, just as you would a YouTube video. Furthermore, not all the content was what it was supposed to be. The live stream feeds often would shut off or the streamer would switch to another channel altogether.
The larger question one must ask is: if embedding copyrighted videos into your site constitutes infringement, then will the way videos are shared across blogs and social networks begin to crumble under ICE? The reality is that ICE isn't seizing domains of infringers whom are violating any and all copyright, just those that are violating copyrights belonging to the MPAA/RIAA. This is a clear indication the these seizures are only in the interest of the largest corporations while the smallest ones are ignored. Politics as usual, I know, but they should at least make an attempt to pretend that the smallest of copyright owners have access to the same law enforcement options as the larger guys.
It won't be long before these seizures are used to block opposition speech against the government. You want to show a video embedded on another site about some corrupt politician, extreme law enforcement, or an activist rant? Sorry, your domain was seized since there isn't an explicit copyright release that says the MPAA or RIAA doesn't own any part of that video.
I think this is one of the subtleties I miss about the original Law and Order. They sent off a DNA test, and it took weeks to get it back, not seconds. Want more forensics, if it wasn't picked up at the crime scene, it didn't happen. Lab techs look like lab techs and are never seen in an interrogation room. Detectives and officers are the only people wielding weapons and no one is turning their heads slightly to the left removing their glasses and coercing a criminal to confess without being read their rights; and when the detectives do go too far, the second half of the show is gladly freeing the perp in a mistrial. They cancelled that show and left us with one that has a lolita-rape complex, one with an obsession to be like the CSI series if CSI cops had a shoestring budget, and the crap spin-off of an LA version that is Dick Wolf showing his age. All the while CSI is gleefully convincing ignorant (stupid may have been the better word) Americans that cops can swab anything in your house and discover the identity of an intruder in seconds using a giant touch screen computer that's transparent enough for them to see even with the blinding orange light casting through it from a window with blinds tilted enough to not see the fake lights and crew behind it but enough to let in the glare that silhouettes the actors from waste down.
$4000/month for a level 1 tech wouldn't happen here in the states either. 1,500 - 2000 maybe, but that's still significantly higher than average wage of Indians. Well, at least you're in a country that has enough intelligent people to see yourselves out of the "developing" status within the next 25 years. I love America, but even I know we're going to have a hell of a time competing in the future if we don't figure something out, now, with our education system.
Ratio wise, metropolitan India isn't much different in cost of living compared to the US, UK, AU, or JP, and both cost and wages have steadily gone up recently.
Revenue and Profit are too distinct areas of an income statement. Just because you generate the most revenue, doesn't mean you generate the most profit.
That's what I was wondering too. In one image, you can clearly see a screen shot of Windows 7/Vista starter, but last I checked, Microsoft was bound by the same rules as everyone else selling to Iran in the US. I know there are ways around it, but this seems to violate Microsoft's own export policies and US Trade laws.
Come to think of it, would a big chunk of Linux be banned in these countries too?
Just to follow up with your question about Sintel's cost, I went straight to the source, Ton, and asked how much it cost. That 12 minute film including labor, equipment, actors, and distribution cost over $400,000! Not bad, but definitely quite a bit. Either way, it's much farther than my cite of $3 mil that I believe I must have picked up from some forum.
Thanks for calling me out as it made me do some actual research.
You just proved my point at PC gaming ISN'T growing. If you can hold on to old hardware and still play the same games being ported from consoles now, then innovation isn't occurring on your platform, especially considering that the platform can actually be upgraded on a whim.
FYI, I own a Wii as my only console (for my kids). My preferred gaming machine is a Sun Ultra 40 with 2x dual core opteron cpus @ 2.4 GHz a core, 8GB of RAM, 3x 500GB hard drives and a Nvidia GTS 250 over clocked with 1GB of VRAM and a NVidia Quadro FX 3500; however, i'm not too naive to think my 2006 (exception graphics card) gaming rig will continue to be the gaming platform of the future. Not until another round of consoles come pouring in.
This is the reality that true gaming enthusiast are failing to see. Games are dirt cheap now, but that's an indication that the market is bottoming out, not growing. Developers and publishers are getting whatever they can for they're existing assets while focusing on consoles and mobile where price drops are less likely and digital distribution is increasing their contribution margins exponentially, driving their support cost down, and reducing their staff requirements. It's nothing personal, it's business.
You're sighting exceptions to the norm. sintel took over $3 million to create and didn't use open content creation until after it was released. While I'm sure more content will come about this way, it's not enough to keep an entire market segment that is swaying to mobile and dedicated devices at a rapid pace.
I think you need to look at those statistics once more. Intel is comparing install base of PCs CAPABLE of gaming to game consoles DEDICATED to gaming. Furthermore, most PCs and laptops being sold are capable of playing games that are designed for consoles and ported to PCs, especially since the consoles are over 5 years old. If you're going to spew stats, spew pc gaming industry sales and their growth rates compared to console gaming and their growth rates.
I would beg to differ. Gaming on a PC is becoming more cumbersome every day with useless DRM, and less relevant every day with half-ass console ports. The gaming industry has always been a niche market, and PC gaming is even a smaller niche. While some companies have been very successful in this market, the future of it is dead. Apple was left out of the PC gaming market almost entirely and they did the best thing they could do: help reinvent gaming on the next generation of platform: mobile. Google's Android strategy is where we will see flourish in variable degrees of game quality, and the hardware requirements are already starting to mirror the PC gaming market. NVidia has adopted a mobile strategy that's starting to unfold, AMD has no clear mobile strategy, Intel has a strategy but forgot the execution part of it, and Samsung may become the largest chip manufacture of ARM based processors.
I understand Microsoft's abandonment of PC gaming. In the next 5 years, it won't exist. They can pump out another console, slap on another "natural motion" control system, and make out like bandits. The only investment they need in gaming is the tools to develop for the Xbox. Eventually, NVidia will pull out of the after-market gaming graphics market, leave AMD to fizzle out and Intel will still pump out chips for PCs, laptops, and servers (they're not going anywhere).
People are going to change their computing habits to be more mobile, and anyone still holding on to that old "PC gaming" market won't last much longer. So good riddance, PC gaming. It was nice knowing you for most of my entire teenage and adult life. You brought me many hours of time wasting and excitement. Unfortunately, your master Microsoft let Apple and Google pound the nails into your coffin.
I didn't think Ton used screeners since NaN's bankruptcy. Then again, searching ton at blender.org brings up his email way too often, so it makes sense. Plus the English seemed a little too American and not enough British. I know he's not British, but Brits and Americans speak and spell the same language differently, and proximity to the Brits would make more sense.
I've been telling Ton about scams like this since 2006 when they were cropping up on ebay. In fact, the old link used to be http://www.blender.org/cms/Re-branding_Blender.545.0.html . He's well aware about them, so It's good to know that he's is actually speaking out about it now.
I only looked at the article link given. GIS does seem like a useful application, but where are the GIS students going to find a giant touch screen to actually use it for geographic information outside of academia? The research group for touchscreen interaction is the gold in this project. I can use the data they find for commercial purposes. A giant Math book seemed pointless though. Thanks for clarification.
I agree, but a clearer question would be : will the cost of setting up a giant touch screen to teach a few students provide a return on investment? The only way I can see this occurring is if the CS students collectively built the device for future students. This provides revenues from a group of students, teaches these students about developing such technology, provides an alternative learning style for future students, and gives the University free publicity. The only downside I see to this project is if the students become accustomed to being tailored to to reach their learning potential, their going to be pretty disappointed to enter a workforce that doesn't care that you learn differently, just use the tools the company has or draw a clear line to how giving you the tools you're used to learning on increases my revenue or reduces my cost more than the cost of implementing such tools. This is cool tech, but the only valuable people to a business is the ones who worked to put the damn thing together, since they can be used for a similar marketing stunt.
Will a giant touch screen computer actually teach or be more of a distraction? I have a hard time believing that one could actually increase mathematical skills by learning on the worlds largest iPod Touch. Something about sitting down with a pencil and paper and working out math problems still seems to be the best way to learn. Maybe I'm just too old school.
SEO is usually a marketing function along with the website in large organizations like jCPenny. It's not IT's duty to drive sales from a website, but to provide the technical tools necessary for the other areas of the business to manage the business. While keeping the site up and running is delegated to IT, what the site looks like, what's on it, and who promotes it came from a marketing exec.
From Article 1 Section 8 of the US constitution: The Congress shall have the power...To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries;
No where in that line does it state that a patent or copyright is to grant any persons, natural or otherwise, a way to guarantee PROFITS or STIFLE COMPETITION. It specifically says: "...PROMOTE the PROGRESS OF SCIENCES AND USEFUL ARTS."
Speeding is the same conclusion I came up with. I could see the next headline "Gov uses app to catch speeders reporting pot holes." Of course, this could be a good thing too. The app data may be able to capture where people speed the most and setup speed traps, especially if people are speeding in dangerous areas such as school zones. Other possible good uses include identifying street congestion that hasn't been reported, most commonly used routes for road improvements, and most common reroutes and side streets to keep an eye out on areas that will need expansion soon. Really a mixed bag of good and evil.
Suing smaller fish is a business tactic, especially if they can get a precedent that ANY public file repository is a infringement trove. If not, then they could probably bleed hotfile dry and swimming in legal fees. If hotfile fights back and wins, you can bet the next step is a domain seizure by ICE, then more court proceedings to get their domain back as they argue with the court that they followed the DMCA to the letter to remove infringing content.
If ICE can seize domains for merely linking to Justin.tv streams, then they'll take a site that's actually hosting the content offline in a heartbeat. Funny thing, ICE never responded to me when I informed them of a site that was distributing my and a slew other indie developed games online illegally. I guess we don't contribute enough to the GDP to receive the same level of treatment from non-tax paying corporate entities that control the other 94% of the media. Not that I wanted the site seized (better them pirate the game now and becoming paying customers later), but just curious if they would actually respond to the small voice in the room.
Maybe not mirrors, but a slew of comments with the key. It isn't really hard to use a key in a home brew application for handshake authentication, so the most important snippet is the key.
Furethermore, owners of the PS3 didn't really care for hacking it themselves, but apparently do care when Sony takes the ability from their friends and neighbors who are willing to void their warranties and do cool things. I own a hacked wii and I constantly show off my ability to delete and backup the same game over and over to my friends and family. When they ask me if I download games off the net, I point them to the scratched DVDs from mishandling by the four year old and the file size of some of the games and let them know it's cheaper to simply buy the game used off ebay than it is spend the time and frustration necessary to download a wii game. After that discussion, I show them all the games I made for IOS compiled for the wii since it's not that hard to use the libraries. They generally seem impressed and we move on to another topic. At the end of the day, they have no more interest in hacking their wii than when we started the conversation. They do have an interest in me being sued for using a device in a way that extends the original manufacture's design for my own purposes.
That's what all the fuss is about. If my brother, a PS3 owner, was sued because he watched a video about hacking his hardware, my other brother that owns an xbox, our friends, and myself would be concerned that buying a console and watching what OTHERS do with their hardware can result in being sued, even though he didn't actually hack the device himself. This place a cost on us because if he can't afford to pay his bills, loses his job, or generally loses his wages for the rest of his life because he watched a video, then the harm is multiplied to those who have to help our loved ones. That's why this seems so atrocious in the first place.
Not really. The kinect is just an extension of the Xbox 360 which I already said was one of the two best innovations since Gates departure. Microsoft didn't intend on it to be used outside of the Xbox and outright condemned developers for extended it to the PC, only to later retract their own statements when someone whispered to Ballmer that they make more profit from the device than the Xbox. Furthermore, the kinect was Microsoft's RESPONSE to the Wii, not a whole new innovation. It was half assed done by Sony and their eye cam for the PS2 well before the Wii, except Sony's lacked depth perception.
I know some want to cheer for Microsoft, but let's face the facts, if they don't do something soon, they're going to be left out of the future of computing as more and more people choose mobile platforms, including cheap ARM tablets, to replace their laptops, the way laptops replaced desktops. Apple and Google are eating Microsoft's lunch right from underneath them and the company lacks a true visionary who can see beyond x86 PCs.
Slashdot Mirror
I used to visit this site to watch various network broadcast when I had Dish Network and would lose the signal. The site did embed the video streams, but almost all of them came from Justin.tv. In fact, if you clicked on the video, you went straight to Justin, just as you would a YouTube video. Furthermore, not all the content was what it was supposed to be. The live stream feeds often would shut off or the streamer would switch to another channel altogether.
The larger question one must ask is: if embedding copyrighted videos into your site constitutes infringement, then will the way videos are shared across blogs and social networks begin to crumble under ICE? The reality is that ICE isn't seizing domains of infringers whom are violating any and all copyright, just those that are violating copyrights belonging to the MPAA/RIAA. This is a clear indication the these seizures are only in the interest of the largest corporations while the smallest ones are ignored. Politics as usual, I know, but they should at least make an attempt to pretend that the smallest of copyright owners have access to the same law enforcement options as the larger guys.
It won't be long before these seizures are used to block opposition speech against the government. You want to show a video embedded on another site about some corrupt politician, extreme law enforcement, or an activist rant? Sorry, your domain was seized since there isn't an explicit copyright release that says the MPAA or RIAA doesn't own any part of that video.
I think this is one of the subtleties I miss about the original Law and Order. They sent off a DNA test, and it took weeks to get it back, not seconds. Want more forensics, if it wasn't picked up at the crime scene, it didn't happen. Lab techs look like lab techs and are never seen in an interrogation room. Detectives and officers are the only people wielding weapons and no one is turning their heads slightly to the left removing their glasses and coercing a criminal to confess without being read their rights; and when the detectives do go too far, the second half of the show is gladly freeing the perp in a mistrial. They cancelled that show and left us with one that has a lolita-rape complex, one with an obsession to be like the CSI series if CSI cops had a shoestring budget, and the crap spin-off of an LA version that is Dick Wolf showing his age. All the while CSI is gleefully convincing ignorant (stupid may have been the better word) Americans that cops can swab anything in your house and discover the identity of an intruder in seconds using a giant touch screen computer that's transparent enough for them to see even with the blinding orange light casting through it from a window with blinds tilted enough to not see the fake lights and crew behind it but enough to let in the glare that silhouettes the actors from waste down.
$4000/month for a level 1 tech wouldn't happen here in the states either. 1,500 - 2000 maybe, but that's still significantly higher than average wage of Indians. Well, at least you're in a country that has enough intelligent people to see yourselves out of the "developing" status within the next 25 years. I love America, but even I know we're going to have a hell of a time competing in the future if we don't figure something out, now, with our education system.
Ratio wise, metropolitan India isn't much different in cost of living compared to the US, UK, AU, or JP, and both cost and wages have steadily gone up recently.
Revenue and Profit are too distinct areas of an income statement. Just because you generate the most revenue, doesn't mean you generate the most profit.
The US doesn't have enough oil to supply itself for our demand. Furthermore, we import most our oil from Canada.
That's what I was wondering too. In one image, you can clearly see a screen shot of Windows 7/Vista starter, but last I checked, Microsoft was bound by the same rules as everyone else selling to Iran in the US. I know there are ways around it, but this seems to violate Microsoft's own export policies and US Trade laws.
Come to think of it, would a big chunk of Linux be banned in these countries too?
Just to follow up with your question about Sintel's cost, I went straight to the source, Ton, and asked how much it cost. That 12 minute film including labor, equipment, actors, and distribution cost over $400,000! Not bad, but definitely quite a bit. Either way, it's much farther than my cite of $3 mil that I believe I must have picked up from some forum.
Thanks for calling me out as it made me do some actual research.
You just proved my point at PC gaming ISN'T growing. If you can hold on to old hardware and still play the same games being ported from consoles now, then innovation isn't occurring on your platform, especially considering that the platform can actually be upgraded on a whim.
FYI, I own a Wii as my only console (for my kids). My preferred gaming machine is a Sun Ultra 40 with 2x dual core opteron cpus @ 2.4 GHz a core, 8GB of RAM, 3x 500GB hard drives and a Nvidia GTS 250 over clocked with 1GB of VRAM and a NVidia Quadro FX 3500; however, i'm not too naive to think my 2006 (exception graphics card) gaming rig will continue to be the gaming platform of the future. Not until another round of consoles come pouring in.
This is the reality that true gaming enthusiast are failing to see. Games are dirt cheap now, but that's an indication that the market is bottoming out, not growing. Developers and publishers are getting whatever they can for they're existing assets while focusing on consoles and mobile where price drops are less likely and digital distribution is increasing their contribution margins exponentially, driving their support cost down, and reducing their staff requirements. It's nothing personal, it's business.
You're sighting exceptions to the norm. sintel took over $3 million to create and didn't use open content creation until after it was released. While I'm sure more content will come about this way, it's not enough to keep an entire market segment that is swaying to mobile and dedicated devices at a rapid pace.
I think you need to look at those statistics once more. Intel is comparing install base of PCs CAPABLE of gaming to game consoles DEDICATED to gaming. Furthermore, most PCs and laptops being sold are capable of playing games that are designed for consoles and ported to PCs, especially since the consoles are over 5 years old. If you're going to spew stats, spew pc gaming industry sales and their growth rates compared to console gaming and their growth rates.
I would beg to differ. Gaming on a PC is becoming more cumbersome every day with useless DRM, and less relevant every day with half-ass console ports. The gaming industry has always been a niche market, and PC gaming is even a smaller niche. While some companies have been very successful in this market, the future of it is dead. Apple was left out of the PC gaming market almost entirely and they did the best thing they could do: help reinvent gaming on the next generation of platform: mobile. Google's Android strategy is where we will see flourish in variable degrees of game quality, and the hardware requirements are already starting to mirror the PC gaming market. NVidia has adopted a mobile strategy that's starting to unfold, AMD has no clear mobile strategy, Intel has a strategy but forgot the execution part of it, and Samsung may become the largest chip manufacture of ARM based processors.
I understand Microsoft's abandonment of PC gaming. In the next 5 years, it won't exist. They can pump out another console, slap on another "natural motion" control system, and make out like bandits. The only investment they need in gaming is the tools to develop for the Xbox. Eventually, NVidia will pull out of the after-market gaming graphics market, leave AMD to fizzle out and Intel will still pump out chips for PCs, laptops, and servers (they're not going anywhere).
People are going to change their computing habits to be more mobile, and anyone still holding on to that old "PC gaming" market won't last much longer. So good riddance, PC gaming. It was nice knowing you for most of my entire teenage and adult life. You brought me many hours of time wasting and excitement. Unfortunately, your master Microsoft let Apple and Google pound the nails into your coffin.
I didn't think Ton used screeners since NaN's bankruptcy. Then again, searching ton at blender.org brings up his email way too often, so it makes sense. Plus the English seemed a little too American and not enough British. I know he's not British, but Brits and Americans speak and spell the same language differently, and proximity to the Brits would make more sense.
I've been telling Ton about scams like this since 2006 when they were cropping up on ebay. In fact, the old link used to be http://www.blender.org/cms/Re-branding_Blender.545.0.html . He's well aware about them, so It's good to know that he's is actually speaking out about it now.
Fine, the World Cup broadcasters get millions of dollars for a commercial and science still gets crap.
Satisfied?
I only looked at the article link given. GIS does seem like a useful application, but where are the GIS students going to find a giant touch screen to actually use it for geographic information outside of academia? The research group for touchscreen interaction is the gold in this project. I can use the data they find for commercial purposes. A giant Math book seemed pointless though. Thanks for clarification.
I agree, but a clearer question would be : will the cost of setting up a giant touch screen to teach a few students provide a return on investment? The only way I can see this occurring is if the CS students collectively built the device for future students. This provides revenues from a group of students, teaches these students about developing such technology, provides an alternative learning style for future students, and gives the University free publicity. The only downside I see to this project is if the students become accustomed to being tailored to to reach their learning potential, their going to be pretty disappointed to enter a workforce that doesn't care that you learn differently, just use the tools the company has or draw a clear line to how giving you the tools you're used to learning on increases my revenue or reduces my cost more than the cost of implementing such tools. This is cool tech, but the only valuable people to a business is the ones who worked to put the damn thing together, since they can be used for a similar marketing stunt.
Will a giant touch screen computer actually teach or be more of a distraction? I have a hard time believing that one could actually increase mathematical skills by learning on the worlds largest iPod Touch. Something about sitting down with a pencil and paper and working out math problems still seems to be the best way to learn. Maybe I'm just too old school.
SEO is usually a marketing function along with the website in large organizations like jCPenny. It's not IT's duty to drive sales from a website, but to provide the technical tools necessary for the other areas of the business to manage the business. While keeping the site up and running is delegated to IT, what the site looks like, what's on it, and who promotes it came from a marketing exec.
My two cents:
From Article 1 Section 8 of the US constitution:
The Congress shall have the power...To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries;
No where in that line does it state that a patent or copyright is to grant any persons, natural or otherwise, a way to guarantee PROFITS or STIFLE COMPETITION. It specifically says: "...PROMOTE the PROGRESS OF SCIENCES AND USEFUL ARTS."
PROMOTE != PROFIT
Speeding is the same conclusion I came up with. I could see the next headline "Gov uses app to catch speeders reporting pot holes." Of course, this could be a good thing too. The app data may be able to capture where people speed the most and setup speed traps, especially if people are speeding in dangerous areas such as school zones. Other possible good uses include identifying street congestion that hasn't been reported, most commonly used routes for road improvements, and most common reroutes and side streets to keep an eye out on areas that will need expansion soon. Really a mixed bag of good and evil.
Suing smaller fish is a business tactic, especially if they can get a precedent that ANY public file repository is a infringement trove. If not, then they could probably bleed hotfile dry and swimming in legal fees. If hotfile fights back and wins, you can bet the next step is a domain seizure by ICE, then more court proceedings to get their domain back as they argue with the court that they followed the DMCA to the letter to remove infringing content.
If ICE can seize domains for merely linking to Justin.tv streams, then they'll take a site that's actually hosting the content offline in a heartbeat. Funny thing, ICE never responded to me when I informed them of a site that was distributing my and a slew other indie developed games online illegally. I guess we don't contribute enough to the GDP to receive the same level of treatment from non-tax paying corporate entities that control the other 94% of the media. Not that I wanted the site seized (better them pirate the game now and becoming paying customers later), but just curious if they would actually respond to the small voice in the room.
Maybe not mirrors, but a slew of comments with the key. It isn't really hard to use a key in a home brew application for handshake authentication, so the most important snippet is the key.
Furethermore, owners of the PS3 didn't really care for hacking it themselves, but apparently do care when Sony takes the ability from their friends and neighbors who are willing to void their warranties and do cool things. I own a hacked wii and I constantly show off my ability to delete and backup the same game over and over to my friends and family. When they ask me if I download games off the net, I point them to the scratched DVDs from mishandling by the four year old and the file size of some of the games and let them know it's cheaper to simply buy the game used off ebay than it is spend the time and frustration necessary to download a wii game. After that discussion, I show them all the games I made for IOS compiled for the wii since it's not that hard to use the libraries. They generally seem impressed and we move on to another topic. At the end of the day, they have no more interest in hacking their wii than when we started the conversation. They do have an interest in me being sued for using a device in a way that extends the original manufacture's design for my own purposes.
That's what all the fuss is about. If my brother, a PS3 owner, was sued because he watched a video about hacking his hardware, my other brother that owns an xbox, our friends, and myself would be concerned that buying a console and watching what OTHERS do with their hardware can result in being sued, even though he didn't actually hack the device himself. This place a cost on us because if he can't afford to pay his bills, loses his job, or generally loses his wages for the rest of his life because he watched a video, then the harm is multiplied to those who have to help our loved ones. That's why this seems so atrocious in the first place.
Maybe it's the American in me, but I was hoping to see the jet pack fail in mid flight as the guy takes a Red Bull flight contest dive.
Not really. The kinect is just an extension of the Xbox 360 which I already said was one of the two best innovations since Gates departure. Microsoft didn't intend on it to be used outside of the Xbox and outright condemned developers for extended it to the PC, only to later retract their own statements when someone whispered to Ballmer that they make more profit from the device than the Xbox. Furthermore, the kinect was Microsoft's RESPONSE to the Wii, not a whole new innovation. It was half assed done by Sony and their eye cam for the PS2 well before the Wii, except Sony's lacked depth perception.
I know some want to cheer for Microsoft, but let's face the facts, if they don't do something soon, they're going to be left out of the future of computing as more and more people choose mobile platforms, including cheap ARM tablets, to replace their laptops, the way laptops replaced desktops. Apple and Google are eating Microsoft's lunch right from underneath them and the company lacks a true visionary who can see beyond x86 PCs.